OTE Pattern Recognition Series - Vol 15.srt
1
00:00:10,860 --> 00:00:13,830
ICT: Okay, folks, welcome back. This is volume 15, and a
2
00:00:13,830 --> 00:00:17,130
continuing series of 20 videos for the optimal trade entry
3
00:00:17,130 --> 00:00:19,770
pattern recognition series for the inner circle trader
4
00:00:19,770 --> 00:00:23,370
YouTube channel. Alright, so our example today is going to
5
00:00:23,370 --> 00:00:27,390
be in the Australian versus the US dollar. And we have our
6
00:00:27,390 --> 00:00:31,890
charts already trained in the five minute timeframe. And I'm
7
00:00:31,890 --> 00:00:34,200
going to ask you to take a look at the chart, study it
8
00:00:34,260 --> 00:00:36,960
before I add the annotation. So pause your video now.
9
00:00:42,570 --> 00:00:46,170
Okay, I'm gonna add the annotations. Alright, so we can see
10
00:00:46,170 --> 00:00:52,410
our standard 830 in the morning to 11am New York Standard
11
00:00:52,410 --> 00:00:59,550
Time. Optimal trade entry right in here. This leg comes down
12
00:00:59,550 --> 00:01:05,670
exactly. At 8:30am the price leg is here to here and then
13
00:01:05,670 --> 00:01:10,860
down. Now there was a smaller retracement that was an
14
00:01:10,860 --> 00:01:15,870
absolutely an optimal trade entry. That's not to diminish
15
00:01:15,870 --> 00:01:19,350
that as the pattern, but we have to incorporate the elements
16
00:01:19,350 --> 00:01:22,950
of the time window. That's here. Okay so you can see on this
17
00:01:22,950 --> 00:01:28,650
particular candle 8:30am dead on it trades down your fill
18
00:01:28,650 --> 00:01:32,190
would have been on that candle, your fill 62% retracement
19
00:01:32,190 --> 00:01:37,170
level keeping with the models minimum rolls. Point 6619 is
20
00:01:37,170 --> 00:01:40,890
our entry. There's a four PIP drawdown from your entry and
21
00:01:40,890 --> 00:01:45,870
using a 10 PIP stop loss below this low here. We have an old
22
00:01:46,050 --> 00:01:50,340
high returning almost 10 pips, they're
23
00:01:52,290 --> 00:01:52,980
almost
24
00:01:55,050 --> 00:01:59,220
20 pips and you got one standard deviation offering a
25
00:01:59,220 --> 00:02:03,930
handsome Potential reward there. One and a half and finally,
26
00:02:04,290 --> 00:02:09,840
taking off at two standard deviations of the optimal trade
27
00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:14,250
entry range they're offering 39 pips just in this short
28
00:02:14,250 --> 00:02:16,890
little run here you know you have to whether this
29
00:02:16,890 --> 00:02:20,790
retracement and then ultimately gets to it there. So you if
30
00:02:20,790 --> 00:02:23,310
you use this one using the rules you'd be bailing out of the
31
00:02:23,310 --> 00:02:26,370
trade as a hit here, even though you could have taken
32
00:02:26,370 --> 00:02:29,790
partials at any one of these. Okay, so here is the secondary
33
00:02:29,820 --> 00:02:33,660
entry opportunity. And using this price legs low, the price
34
00:02:33,660 --> 00:02:37,170
laying high, the retracement down in your fill would be on
35
00:02:37,170 --> 00:02:42,930
this candle here. With the spread and your fill would be a
36
00:02:42,930 --> 00:02:46,620
hypothetical point 6639 entry you have only a three PIP
37
00:02:46,620 --> 00:02:51,900
drawdown and the run above the relative equal highs. We want
38
00:02:51,900 --> 00:02:56,550
to see expansion there and ultimately trades to one half of
39
00:02:56,550 --> 00:03:01,680
a standard deviation offering more than 25 pips. And this
40
00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:07,470
candle trades exactly to that high of 6667 and five PIP
41
00:03:07,470 --> 00:03:11,100
bets, which is right here, and doesn't go any higher than
42
00:03:11,100 --> 00:03:16,110
that consolidates and breaks down. This after trading down
43
00:03:16,140 --> 00:03:18,810
here would have eventually stopped you out even on the
44
00:03:18,810 --> 00:03:22,080
initial entry down here, you would have trailed your stop
45
00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:25,020
loss rate below these lows, you would have gotten stopped
46
00:03:25,110 --> 00:03:29,670
out at that point. So any partials that would have been left
47
00:03:29,670 --> 00:03:33,600
in the marketplace to try to get to the previous day's high,
48
00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:37,620
which is over here. That previous day's high coming in at
49
00:03:37,620 --> 00:03:42,090
6680. And two PIP bets is an undelivered target. And I
50
00:03:42,090 --> 00:03:43,440
mentioned this in my
51
00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:48,030
Twitter dialogue today basically, kind of like pushing and
52
00:03:48,030 --> 00:03:52,530
emphasizing what's more important, is it your target being
53
00:03:52,530 --> 00:03:58,800
hit or profiting because so many traders in this industry
54
00:03:59,460 --> 00:04:04,230
lose Money, and they've had open paper profit. And when I
55
00:04:04,230 --> 00:04:06,180
say paper profit, I'm not talking about just demo trading.
56
00:04:06,540 --> 00:04:09,150
I'm saying that. How many times have you traded with live
57
00:04:09,150 --> 00:04:15,630
funds, and then watched a potential profit completely turn
58
00:04:15,630 --> 00:04:18,960
around against you and go into a loss. Now, how many times
59
00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:21,690
Could you go back in time, hypothetically, and say if I just
60
00:04:21,690 --> 00:04:24,870
would have took something off when it was given me X amount
61
00:04:24,900 --> 00:04:29,250
of pips or X amount of dollars for return? And you did that,
62
00:04:29,580 --> 00:04:33,720
as a general rule of thumb, you always pay yourself. I made
63
00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:37,740
a remark yesterday on Twitter, along the lines that if you
64
00:04:37,740 --> 00:04:41,370
worked a partial week at your job, so you you work a normal
65
00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:45,000
Monday through Friday, and you worked Monday and Tuesday and
66
00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:47,310
became ill and didn't finish the rest of the week. Does your
67
00:04:47,310 --> 00:04:51,450
employer get to keep all of those earned income hours that
68
00:04:51,450 --> 00:04:54,930
you put in on Monday and Tuesday? Of course not. So when you
69
00:04:54,930 --> 00:04:58,080
put on a trade and the market offers you an opportunity to
70
00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:01,530
take something off, and scaling You have to do that.
71
00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:05,430
Otherwise you fall victim to something like this, where both
72
00:05:05,430 --> 00:05:08,820
patterns offered opportunity to book a profit,
73
00:05:09,330 --> 00:05:14,850
hypothetically. But if you don't execute those partials that
74
00:05:14,850 --> 00:05:18,210
are at logical levels, as we talked about in the fib, again,
75
00:05:18,210 --> 00:05:21,180
the fibs, not the magic, it's just logical levels for you to
76
00:05:21,180 --> 00:05:25,380
take off something you're not forced to. But this is what
77
00:05:25,410 --> 00:05:28,290
will happen. Invariably, if you keep doing this long enough,
78
00:05:28,590 --> 00:05:30,930
you're going to have a trade that will look good, it'll
79
00:05:30,930 --> 00:05:33,000
look, it'll look good, it'll look strong, it'll look like
80
00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:35,340
it's performing. And it may in fact, look like it's going to
81
00:05:35,340 --> 00:05:39,270
go and run up above that high, but it Peters out and loses
82
00:05:39,270 --> 00:05:43,230
momentum and goes the other direction. So you're either left
83
00:05:43,230 --> 00:05:48,570
with being upset and emotional about not taking partials and
84
00:05:48,570 --> 00:05:52,590
getting stopped out, or learning from that and saying, okay,
85
00:05:52,950 --> 00:05:56,640
I can take something off, and I'm not going to demand my
86
00:05:57,210 --> 00:06:00,780
best case scenario, exit or target. I'm going to take
87
00:06:00,780 --> 00:06:04,860
something off and there are a plethora of so called
88
00:06:04,860 --> 00:06:08,940
educators in this industry that will say partials is stupid
89
00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:15,690
partials is dumb partials is a rookie ploy or attempt to
90
00:06:15,690 --> 00:06:21,600
just satisfy the fear and greed tug award it's going on. And
91
00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:28,470
the last one I agree with, because it rewards your time and
92
00:06:28,470 --> 00:06:33,990
risk. And it doesn't matter that you're reducing the amount
93
00:06:34,020 --> 00:06:37,710
of potential profit, you're reducing the same thing on a
94
00:06:37,710 --> 00:06:40,920
relative basis that you had in terms of risk. You're
95
00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:44,100
reducing it as you take something off, you're paying the
96
00:06:44,100 --> 00:06:48,690
trader, you're rewarding, your risk, the initial risk, and
97
00:06:48,690 --> 00:06:52,440
take taking something out. Remember that workweek analogy.
98
00:06:52,950 --> 00:06:57,210
You have to find a way to grow comfortable taking something
99
00:06:57,300 --> 00:06:59,910
out of the marketplace when it offers it to you. If you come
100
00:06:59,910 --> 00:07:02,730
in As industry, or if you've been unable to find
101
00:07:02,730 --> 00:07:05,460
profitability, and you can't warm up to this idea, I
102
00:07:05,460 --> 00:07:10,830
guarantee you, if you try it, you'll love it. Because it
103
00:07:10,890 --> 00:07:13,500
manages all of that fear and greed, that tug of war that
104
00:07:13,530 --> 00:07:15,990
takes place. Once you put the trade on in a live setting,
105
00:07:16,020 --> 00:07:18,600
you want to get out of the trade, you wanted to get to your
106
00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:21,240
target right away, but you can't force that. But as it
107
00:07:21,300 --> 00:07:23,910
logically moves to levels where you could take partial
108
00:07:23,910 --> 00:07:29,100
profits and exit some of the position, thus reducing the
109
00:07:29,130 --> 00:07:32,580
exposure or risk, but rewarding and adding to your bottom
110
00:07:32,580 --> 00:07:37,410
line because these targets are not guaranteed. But guess
111
00:07:37,410 --> 00:07:41,340
what? If you're in a market, it's trading here, and you put
112
00:07:41,340 --> 00:07:45,780
your market order to get out. That's more likely to fill you
113
00:07:45,780 --> 00:07:50,370
in a profit than waiting for that undelivered target. So
114
00:07:50,700 --> 00:07:54,090
today, I kind of like pushed the envelope to try to get you
115
00:07:54,090 --> 00:07:58,650
thinking about this particular pair on Twitter. And it gave
116
00:07:58,650 --> 00:08:02,100
two opportunities both you yielded the potential to pay out
117
00:08:02,130 --> 00:08:07,290
but it did not hit the logical level of the previous day's
118
00:08:07,290 --> 00:08:11,310
high and it's not necessary to find profitability, getting
119
00:08:11,310 --> 00:08:14,520
your best case scenario targets. So if we found this
120
00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:16,770
insightful until next time, I wish you good luck and good
121
00:08:16,770 --> 00:08:17,130
trading