Mastering High Probability Scalping Vol 2 of 3.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-11 13:41
1 00:00:08,610 --> 00:00:21,210 ICT: Okay, folks, welcome back. This is volume two of three, four mastering high probability scalping, focusing on previous day bank liquidity runs.
2 00:00:27,540 --> 00:00:39,630 Alright, so what we are revealing the daily bias so that we everyone knows exactly what should be done. And I'm referring to a daily chart here. So when
3 00:00:39,630 --> 00:00:48,270 we're implementing the daily bias, what we're gonna be doing is on a daily chart, we're gonna be waiting for a swing high to form and to be broken, this
4 00:00:48,270 --> 00:00:59,760 will be bullish, okay, when we see a swing high broken, that was a candle that has a lower high to the left of it, and a lower high to the right of it, as seen
5 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:13,980 here. Okay, if at any time in the future, it's traded through when we have that we have a bullish stage. In other words, we anticipate a future Buying
6 00:01:13,980 --> 00:01:27,300 Opportunity doesn't mean the buy right there. This means we are now on an alert to wait for a specific criteria criteria is going to be looking for a swing low
7 00:01:27,300 --> 00:01:37,350 to form down here, okay, a swing low again is a candle that has a higher load to the left of it and a higher load to the right of it again on the daily chart.
8 00:01:39,450 --> 00:01:55,740 key point here is this swing low should not take out a previous recent swing low okay. So if we have this criteria, immediately after a swing high is broken. We
9 00:01:55,740 --> 00:02:06,960 have the probable optimal trade entry scenario by itself on a daily chart. Okay, doesn't mean it has to line up with a 62 to seven times to trace the level it
10 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:19,470 just means that we are in effect trading with a higher low after breaking a short term high so we have a break in market structure a retracement so
11 00:02:19,470 --> 00:02:32,280 therefore, the market should have an ability to find momentum on the upside. Okay. When the swing low forms, we're going to be anticipating the third candle
12 00:02:32,610 --> 00:02:42,930 that is this one here. It's high to be rated or traded through the very next day. So towards the next trading day where it opens. Preferably you want to see
13 00:02:42,930 --> 00:02:56,520 it open below the third candle the swing lows Hi. Okay, so here's your criterion, you want to see the swing low form without breaking a previous swing
14 00:02:56,520 --> 00:03:10,230 low immediately after a swing high is formed but breaking a previous swing high. Okay, so again, the stage for a bullish scenario is anytime a swing highs broken
15 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:24,030 and traded to a new high expected retracement. Wait for a daily swing low to form swing low should be a higher swing low than any recent previous short term,
16 00:03:24,450 --> 00:03:38,760 swing low. That third candle that makes the swing low that high you want to see the next candle open below that candles high and then anticipate the market to
17 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:53,160 run through this candles Hi. We're looking for previous day's highs to be rated each day until a swing high on a daily forms or price reaches a key support or
18 00:03:53,160 --> 00:04:02,190 resistance level. And I'll give you an example with that will be the immediate candle after this particular day's formation. We'll be looking for a Bosch
19 00:04:02,190 --> 00:04:13,170 scenario. Okay either in London or the New York scenario. anticipate a raid on the previous day's high. The very next trading day, we would look for the same
20 00:04:13,170 --> 00:04:24,000 scenario again, looking for reasons to be bullish on a retracement lower, going higher, reaching for ultimately to this old high because this would be a area of
21 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:34,320 resistance. Okay or if it trades to that high and through it. We'd still maintain looking for bullish scenarios buying looking for previous day's highs
22 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:46,710 to be taken out. Or if we have price rally up to a degree either at this level or before it in creating a swing high. Once that forms. We have to wait for that
23 00:04:46,710 --> 00:04:55,860 swing high to be broke on the upside. Okay. There's going to be a lot of missed opportunities admittedly with this but it gives you a specific criteria on the
24 00:04:55,860 --> 00:04:56,400 work within
25 00:05:02,370 --> 00:05:14,280 Okay implying the daily bias This is when it's bearish and we're waiting again on the daily chart for a swing low on a daily to be broken. So we have a swing
26 00:05:14,280 --> 00:05:26,010 low here, okay again a daily candle that has a higher low to the left of it and a higher low to the right of it eventually as price trades through this, this
27 00:05:26,010 --> 00:05:37,680 break in market structure sets the stage for a bearish market condition. Okay, so we're kind of like alerted to waiting for a sell scenario. We wait for a
28 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:48,840 retracement when we get the daily swing high formed the third candle okay that makes a swing high we're going to be anticipating that low to be violated the
29 00:05:48,840 --> 00:05:59,490 very next trading day. key point is we don't want to see this swing high break a previous swing high it means immediately before the swing low there has broken a
30 00:05:59,490 --> 00:06:08,760 previous swing low okay so what we're doing is we're looking for a swing low broken here so now we have the ability to see the market trade to a new a new
31 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:23,550 low then it retraces but will not break a swing high. So now we're getting that three quarterback retracement. Okay. So by itself, it's like an optimal trade
32 00:06:23,550 --> 00:06:33,660 entry doesn't have to be 262 to seven times in training level. It's better if it does, but it doesn't require it. You want to see the market trade up until it
33 00:06:33,690 --> 00:06:44,490 creates a daily swing high. When that third candle forms. At its close very next trading day, you will be watching for price to make an attempt to trade through
34 00:06:44,850 --> 00:06:57,450 this candles low and that remains the bias each trading day until a swing low forms or we trade down to this old low. Okay, or another significant low. So
35 00:06:57,450 --> 00:07:08,520 again, summary is we're looking for a swing low to form on the daily chart and then it be broken. Then we're looking for a swing high to form but does not
36 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:19,380 break a recent swing high. So here's a swing high that doesn't come back to clear or break a previous swing high. When the swing high forms, we anticipate
37 00:07:19,380 --> 00:07:30,300 the third daily candle in the swing high right here. We will look for its load to be rated or traded through the following day. And we look for the previous
38 00:07:30,300 --> 00:07:42,780 day's low to be rated each day until a new swing low on a daily forms, or price reaches a key support resistance level. Now, you're not going to have a set up
39 00:07:42,810 --> 00:07:54,360 every single trading day. Okay, I've gotten a lot of emails so far, since I've produced the first volume of this three part series. And the common complaint
40 00:07:55,020 --> 00:08:07,380 I'm getting is I'm not getting a set up every day. And it's not been promised. Okay, if you look at every major that's paired against the dollar, you can get
41 00:08:07,650 --> 00:08:19,890 about three to four solid setups per week. Now that means that you're probably not going to get a set up every single train day, chances are one pair among all
42 00:08:19,890 --> 00:08:31,020 the ones that are available, will provide you a setup to study she can practice in your demo account with it. The emphasis is for you to remember that you only
43 00:08:31,020 --> 00:08:42,450 need about 25 pips or so per week. And if you do percent off your account, and it may be high, admittedly, for some of you. But if you have grown in your
44 00:08:42,450 --> 00:08:52,590 understanding about what I'm teaching, and you're willing to risk 2% it takes a little bit less than 25 pips per week to double your account or make 6%
45 00:08:52,620 --> 00:09:03,450 compounded monthly. And I think that's the objective that folks should be looking for when they're new. Because it's realistic, it's low, but yet it still
46 00:09:03,450 --> 00:09:18,000 doubles the account over the course of a 12 month, year. So if we're looking for one good setup that would yield that 25 pips or so you only need one scalp. One
47 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:33,060 set up that does that. Now I started the current teaching week on Twitter. Kind of like building the idea of making 50 pips per week. If you frame your scalps
48 00:09:33,210 --> 00:09:44,400 in such a way that it allows you to aim for 25 pips you only really need two setups per week, don't you? Now, I like that model personally because it's very
49 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:48,240 close to what I do as a short term or intraday trader.
50 00:09:49,620 --> 00:09:59,490 I know the likelihood is I want to be trading on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. If I can get my entire weekly objective which is 50 to 75 pips per week, if I can get
51 00:09:59,490 --> 00:10:06,600 that done in one day then I won't do any more trading after that, regardless of what day of the week it is. But usually I hone in on Tuesday and Wednesday
52 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:15,600 because they're primarily the best days, whether bullish or bearish. If it's bullish for the week, then I'm looking for the weekly low to form around Tuesday
53 00:10:15,600 --> 00:10:27,930 or Wednesdays New York open, if I can anticipate a lower close or weekly bearish candle, shooting with an expectation that we're going to be seeing lower prices
54 00:10:27,930 --> 00:10:37,290 by Friday's close relative to Sunday's opening, then I'll be looking for Tuesday or Wednesday's price action to create the high of the week. So if I can trade in
55 00:10:37,290 --> 00:10:49,080 sync with that idea. It also formulates a lot more conviction and confidence behind the setups that I'm looking to trade, especially with what's been
56 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:58,800 described here. It's a rather simplistic approach, it may have been an oversimplification on my part, by way of creating this diagram. But from an
57 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:09,870 internal standpoint, how I view the marketplace, this is what I'm looking for. Okay. So if I seen on a daily chart, chances are, the daily chart will probably
58 00:11:09,900 --> 00:11:18,990 sustain the move for a few days, and you'll only need one trading day. Okay, so if you have a scenario that's bullish, or bearish relative to what I just
59 00:11:18,990 --> 00:11:30,210 described here, so far in this video, you chances are, you're probably gonna have one day's worth of momentum. And that's all you need. So every single pair
60 00:11:30,570 --> 00:11:41,400 does not move lockstep to one another, they're not always moving in tandem. So what may be a good parent trade today may not be a pair that's really good to
61 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:54,600 trade tomorrow, but another pair may move in equal or better fashion. In other words, the setups are plenty, but you have to allow them to be presented in
62 00:11:54,600 --> 00:12:04,410 price action from the daily chart, and then not forcing it. So let's take a look over the charts. I'll give you an example of what looks like and we can use the
63 00:12:04,410 --> 00:12:18,510 kill zones. Get we're looking at the cable, the daily chart. I just scrolled through just found a random place, it doesn't make a difference where we start
64 00:12:18,510 --> 00:12:40,650 at. But I want you to take a look at the price action here. And we're gonna look at this swing low right here. And it's on the heels of a previous short term
65 00:12:40,650 --> 00:12:41,100 high.
66 00:12:46,380 --> 00:12:57,960 Okay, so we have a short term high here. Lower high to the left, lower high to the right, high as high in the middle. It breaks that. Okay, so now we're on a
67 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:11,760 bye watch for scalping. This is a swing high, it's broken. And we have to wait for a swing low to form after this is broken. So we're going to be anticipating
68 00:13:12,330 --> 00:13:25,320 a retracement after this run up says price starts to drop down. We have a preliminary swing low here. Okay, so this candle that's the third one, we need
69 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:36,240 to make sure we wait for price to trade through this candles high. The very next day it doesn't do that. Okay, then we have another candle form a potential swing
70 00:13:36,270 --> 00:13:45,720 low here. So this candle here we have to wait for this candle is high that he traded through very next candle. It doesn't do it. It does it here. So now we
71 00:13:45,720 --> 00:14:00,630 can be a buyer here with a scout running previous day's high which is this one. Okay, so one, July 24 2017. That high again, coming in at 130 57. That's where
72 00:14:00,630 --> 00:14:08,970 the liquidity run is going to be right there. This candle on the 25th of July is where we'll be looking for the setup.
73 00:14:14,250 --> 00:14:20,790 Right there. Okay, and we're going to drop down into a smaller timeframe, we'll use a 15 minute time frame.
74 00:14:26,130 --> 00:14:41,610 Okay. Scratch this up, but the dividers and you guys can see it. So previous day's high is right here. So I'll put a horizontal line on the chart to
75 00:14:41,610 --> 00:15:02,220 facilitate that. Okay, so here's where the liquidity is. We're running for 3057. Okay, this day here we're looking for a scenario To get long to run that
76 00:15:02,730 --> 00:15:23,280 liquidity pool. Okay, and we have this, again is the liquid report risk we're reaching for previous day's high on this trading day when I use the market
77 00:15:23,910 --> 00:15:37,380 sessions, I'm looking for London setups in New York setups primarily, this is a London session low and I'll let you see that here that's in London and we're
78 00:15:37,380 --> 00:15:56,160 going to use that as I mentioned in volume one I use session highs and lows and they said the highest portion of the day in terms of a 15 minute candle just put
79 00:15:56,160 --> 00:16:06,540 it right here. You guys can see it so I'm using this one in this one framing the entire price. So as price starts to stay here, I'm not concerned about anything
80 00:16:06,540 --> 00:16:20,370 until it gets down into the optimal trade entry 62% retracement level respectively 70.5 and 79% Okay, exit price trades it hits it here. This candle
81 00:16:20,370 --> 00:16:35,010 comes in exactly 945 that's one and we're going into a nice run into previous day's high. Okay, so you can see that was a nice little scalp. It offered as
82 00:16:35,010 --> 00:16:52,080 much as 1020 3040 pips, to get to the high and if we look for 10 to 20 pips, I was sweep by this high that takes us 1020 here, so 20 pips, 40 pips 60 pips 70
83 00:16:52,080 --> 00:17:02,700 pips or so in terms of potential price range, that in itself is it for the week for me, that would be it, I wouldn't need to do anything else. And it's hard to
84 00:17:02,700 --> 00:17:11,940 believe. But that's how I operate. I don't look for a whole lot of setups per week, because I'm content with you doing one thing well, and there it is. Now,
85 00:17:11,970 --> 00:17:23,610 if this were a more conservative approach, you could be looking for the long down here based on the optimal trade entry and reaching just to the old high.
86 00:17:24,030 --> 00:17:39,990 Now if that's the case, say you're filled it was rounded to 130 20 that again, is getting out at 57. That's 37 pips or so. Okay, almost 40 pips we'll say 40
87 00:17:39,990 --> 00:17:53,370 pips. You only need to do one more trade for the week, pretend pips to get a 50 PIP net return for the week. Now, there's a lot of folks that will say, don't
88 00:17:53,400 --> 00:18:05,730 set targets don't set goals for daily or weekly. Because you don't know what the markets going to do? Well, I would submit that that's partially true. We don't
89 00:18:05,730 --> 00:18:15,930 know with any assurity what the markets going to do. But we do have pretty strong probabilities of wherever the market may reach for. And if we can frame
90 00:18:15,930 --> 00:18:25,230 the idea of where we're trying to get in at based on time and price kill zone and optimal trade entry on price. And where we're reaching for it doesn't that
91 00:18:25,230 --> 00:18:35,100 not offer us a definitive way of determining what could be reasonably expected for that particular setup. And if we know that we're looking at intraday setups
92 00:18:35,100 --> 00:18:43,560 like this is typically five days per week, unless it's a holiday or the markets are not trading because of some other bank holiday whatever we don't want to
93 00:18:43,560 --> 00:19:00,690 trade it. We can see many instances where 25 to 50 pips is rather easy to get now, it's when we get into the I want to make 250 to 500 pips per week, then it
94 00:19:00,690 --> 00:19:13,380 becomes a little daunting in terms of a task. So I think by focusing on 2025 pips per setup, and then aiming for to go once per week, I think 50 pips is a
95 00:19:13,380 --> 00:19:25,050 really low hanging fruit, reachable, achievable and certainly realistic in the scope of a developing trader. Will you get it every week? No. Will you get it
96 00:19:25,050 --> 00:19:27,270 right out the gate starting using my concepts?
97 00:19:27,540 --> 00:19:38,370 No. But over time, you will eventually grow into that expectancy for a nice return of 50 pips per week. You can frame your entire career on that.