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ICT YT - 2021-05-06 - If I Had To Restart As A Trader At 20 Years Old.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-05-25 08:43
1 00:00:34,380 --> 00:00:46,050 ICT: Alright folks, welcome back, it's going to be a multi part series, I don't exactly know how many videos it will be, I know it'll least be three. But it
2 00:00:46,050 --> 00:00:57,540 could go on a little bit longer than that. I promise not to be too long winded.  But this is probably going to be the one that isn't like the most, if we were
3 00:00:57,540 --> 00:01:09,570 going to be honest upfront, because I like to lay down a foundation. And the premise behind this series was that if I could go back and start all over again
4 00:01:09,570 --> 00:01:19,530 at 20, you've already seen my video series, if not its own this YouTube channel, what I would tell myself, like go back and speak to my younger self as a trader,
5 00:01:20,130 --> 00:01:32,610 things I would counsel myself to do and not to do. This is a little bit more refined of a series on what it is I would be doing trade wise, whereas the other
6 00:01:32,610 --> 00:01:45,600 series was more along the lines of mental and psychological persuasion. I just don't want that much of that in this series. But there has to be a little bit of
7 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:56,940 it in the first video, obviously, but I promise I'll give you something in this one that will be useful. 20 years old, if I can go back, knowing what I have
8 00:01:56,940 --> 00:02:09,600 available to me on this YouTube channel, say I was someone else not ICT. And I was 20 years old. What would I be taking from this YouTube channel and
9 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:20,790 implementing it first? Okay, and what direction would I go in? If I were starting all the way back to square one, knowing nothing about the marketplace?
10 00:02:21,060 --> 00:02:34,110 How would I progress through everything I've put on this YouTube channel and not trying to do everything at one time. Obviously, it's the mistake all of my
11 00:02:34,110 --> 00:02:48,810 students that come through this YouTube channel try to make but 20 year old Michael, it was very similar to what you see today. The young men and women that
12 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:59,730 get involved in this industry trading, not specifically just forex, they want to get rich real quick. And I was looking for an off ramp to nine to five I hated
13 00:02:59,730 --> 00:03:08,670 working didn't want to work. And it's not because I'm lazy. But I did not want to spend my life and my time making someone else rich. And I didn't need books
14 00:03:08,670 --> 00:03:19,890 and self help books and motivating speakers to tell me all this stuff to get me all hyped up. I just hated it. So at 20 years old, the things that I would focus
15 00:03:19,890 --> 00:03:33,900 on primarily in some of these things I learned through pain. But if I could go back in time, this is what I would do. I would take control my attention because
16 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:44,070 when I first started, I was trying to do everything I could possibly get my hands on in terms of a trading account, a trading asset class to be traded, I
17 00:03:44,070 --> 00:03:52,770 wanted to be in everything at all times, I didn't want to miss any moves. And I wanted to be able to trade every possible setup, if there was a system that said
18 00:03:53,100 --> 00:04:02,850 it was a buy if it did this or if it was a self it did that I wanted to be able to do all of those things. So you have to bring in your attention. And you also
19 00:04:02,970 --> 00:04:17,790 have to keep your perspective limited in the beginning because you can waste a lot of time if you don't. Now, obviously today, between 21 the Instagram phase
20 00:04:17,820 --> 00:04:33,240 is still hot and heavy. I would not be doing any Instagram or worshiping anyone on Instagram or joining any of their fan clubs. I would do everything I could to
21 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:46,080 accept the submission to time and I would try to do that as early as possible. I had to learn that lesson hard and painfully in my early stages as a 20 year old.
22 00:04:46,980 --> 00:04:55,680 I didn't have a lot of mentorship people, okay, around me to be able to tell me this is normal. That's not normal. This is what you should be doing this what
23 00:04:55,680 --> 00:05:07,050 you should not be doing. So I would remind Myself initially, like I did in the beginning, that's probably gonna take me a long time to get wealthy, to get
24 00:05:07,050 --> 00:05:14,550 money to get a different lifestyle. And I submitted to a 20 year plan. Now I know some of you're shaking your head saying there's no way I'm gonna submit to
25 00:05:14,550 --> 00:05:19,200 a 20 year plan. But in this regard, I was somewhat of a realist.
26 00:05:20,940 --> 00:05:30,180 I didn't consider myself a mental giant, I did not consider myself a lucky person. But I knew if I put the work effort behind it, and giving myself a time
27 00:05:30,180 --> 00:05:41,220 horizon that was well beyond reasonable 20 years. So I didn't want to work for someone else in my 40s. And if I can get there sooner, then obviously that's
28 00:05:41,220 --> 00:05:51,300 better. But you have to accept the submission to time You don't know how long it's going to take for you to get consistently profitable. Or even to understand
29 00:05:51,300 --> 00:05:58,620 what it is that you're going to be doing. As a trading model, you don't know how long it's gonna take, you don't know what your personal psychological makeups
30 00:05:58,620 --> 00:06:04,980 gonna match up with, for a specific style of trading, you don't know, if you're gonna be a day trader, you don't know, if you're gonna be a swing trader, you
31 00:06:04,980 --> 00:06:12,450 don't know, if you're gonna be a short term trader, you don't even know if you can be trading forex, you may end up trading futures, or crypto or stocks, you
32 00:06:12,450 --> 00:06:26,580 don't know that right now. And you have to be submissive to time to allow that to materialize in your development. Avoid multiple sources of information. And
33 00:06:26,580 --> 00:06:38,880 what does that mean? I would not be going into chat rooms, asking other people's advice, I would not be trying to dabble into other systems, trying to get a
34 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:52,830 little bit of this and a little bit of that and come up with a Frankenstein system. I wasted money, time and peace of mind doing all that stuff. settling on
35 00:06:52,830 --> 00:07:02,580 the study of price action. That's all that matters, you need to understand what price action moves generally repeat, which are very generic that happen
36 00:07:02,790 --> 00:07:13,050 consistently on a weekly basis on a daily basis, a time and day sensitivity.  Like what moves typically form in the London session, what moves typically form
37 00:07:13,050 --> 00:07:23,940 in the New York session, what ends the day, and this is all basically my ICT kill zones, you can learn all that stuff on this channel. Avoid all indicator
38 00:07:23,940 --> 00:07:35,970 based theories. I waste a lot of time initially with that, focusing just on price action alone, at 20 years old, you want to feel like you're smarter than
39 00:07:35,970 --> 00:07:43,800 you really are. And it looks technical, with all these lines on your graphs and charts. But they're distraction. They're only measuring what's already happened.
40 00:07:43,830 --> 00:07:55,440 There is no prognostication value associated to any of it. It's just measuring the past. It's all it is. It's twisting, and beating the math, in data into
41 00:07:55,440 --> 00:08:02,190 submission and showing you a line or a graphic that has absolutely no bearing on what price is going to do in the future.
42 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:21,150 I would study why traders fail, not why they win. You can get lucky and win and have really no real reason as to why that trade panned out for you. Now you can
43 00:08:21,150 --> 00:08:31,650 attribute all these factors to well, you know, the last time I elbow AIG on a rainy day, you know, crypto went up something to that effect. And people will
44 00:08:31,650 --> 00:08:44,250 swear by that. And I'm not interested in why a trader makes money, I don't care about that. Because what they do to make money or find profitability, doesn't
45 00:08:44,250 --> 00:08:55,380 necessarily mean that's going to be the thing that works for me. That means every winning system out there is a religion. It's an individual religion for
46 00:08:55,380 --> 00:09:06,480 that particular person. And my alignment to those things that that winning trader may subscribe to, may not be something I'm comfortable with or willing to
47 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:17,370 submit to. It may be their belief in a new carrier that got them to that winning trade, or trades. That would not jive with me because I don't believe in
48 00:09:17,370 --> 00:09:26,640 indicators, not because they aren't cool looking on their charts because I had a lot of indicators on my charts when I was 20. But it doesn't mean that that's
49 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:36,030 going to tell you what the price is going to do. Okay, their distraction. I would be focusing on why traders are losing. Now. How do you get that
50 00:09:36,030 --> 00:09:49,140 information? I liked the market wizards book, Volume One and Two after that the rest of the series was, in my opinion not worth opening up. Those two books, the
51 00:09:49,140 --> 00:09:59,880 gems that were in them, why they were losing the hardships they encountered and how they weathered that adversity. That's what you're going to need. You're
52 00:09:59,880 --> 00:10:08,430 going need that type of reassurance that when you go through these tailspins, every time you make a single step forward in progress, you end up going
53 00:10:08,430 --> 00:10:17,670 backwards 510 1520 steps, and it's really easy to talk yourself completely out of this industry before you give yourself a chance. You want to be reminded, and
54 00:10:17,670 --> 00:10:24,330 you never see this on Instagram is his number one reason why I said you can control your attention and don't go to social media accounts, because
55 00:10:24,510 --> 00:10:34,050 99.9999999% of them are fake, they don't make money trading, they make money selling courses, how do I know they make money on courses, because I've made a
56 00:10:34,050 --> 00:10:43,200 lot of money selling courses, I've made millions of dollars selling courses.  It's a good living, if you want to keep doing it on retiring from those
57 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:51,210 individuals that are on social media, they're never going to tell you how they fail. Because if they tell you how they fail, you aren't going to subscribe to
58 00:10:51,210 --> 00:11:01,380 them, you're not going to buy their courses. And guess what? It'll make you think, wow. They said they failed. So why is it any different now? Let them
59 00:11:01,380 --> 00:11:09,660 prove that they're now profitable. They won't do that that litmus test goes unasked. It doesn't get answered either by Instagram traders, it doesn't get
60 00:11:09,660 --> 00:11:24,810 answered by Facebook traders, YouTube people, they ignore it, they hide from that. So my whole image is, in this channel framed on how I started as average
61 00:11:24,810 --> 00:11:40,350 Joe, I came from nothing. And I developed all these things over the course of what would be 29 years, November 5 of 2021. So knowing why traders fail. And
62 00:11:40,350 --> 00:11:51,960 what they did to get through that is important, because those are the things that I took away from the market wizards books, not because they said they made
63 00:11:51,960 --> 00:12:00,420 billions of dollars doing this and doing that that was of no interest to me, because that number was so far out of my reach at the time as a 20 year old. I
64 00:12:00,420 --> 00:12:13,710 couldn't connect with that. But what it did allow me to resonate with is they had hardships. And if you buy a book or you buy a course, most most of the time,
65 00:12:13,980 --> 00:12:26,970 you're going to never see any discussion of losing weathering a series of losing trades, the psychology that is required to to weather that type of thing,
66 00:12:26,970 --> 00:12:37,860 because this is an individual sport. And because it's an individual sport, it's very, very painful. And you can't just go on your spouse's shoulder, you can't
67 00:12:37,860 --> 00:12:45,060 go to your friends, unless they're a trader, and they're not going to understand what you're feeling. You feel like you're a failure, if you have a series of
68 00:12:45,090 --> 00:12:50,130 losing trades, 567 trades in a row that you did not find profitable results in.
69 00:12:51,420 --> 00:13:03,270 So it's going to feel like a need for you to go to join a team. Okay, there is no team in trading. It's you. You're a one person army, and you are against
70 00:13:03,330 --> 00:13:13,500 everyone else, me included. And I'm not in this game to give you my money.  Neither is anyone else. No one's gonna say, Well, you know, I feel sorry for
71 00:13:13,500 --> 00:13:22,080 Robin today. She's not been doing well, she's had six losing trades in a row. So let's you know, let's all do a charitable act. And let us take a losing trade
72 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:33,630 for her. That's not how this game works. Everybody wants everyone else's head on a block. That's how we get paid. That's what you subscribe to. I know it sounds
73 00:13:33,630 --> 00:13:45,810 graphic, but that's what it is. It's war. You against me, me against you. All of you are against me. And I'm against all of you. In these videos, I'm doing my
74 00:13:45,810 --> 00:13:54,990 best to try to help you. But once I enter the market, if you're the unfortunate person that's on the other side of my trade, well, you're just going to have to
75 00:13:54,990 --> 00:14:06,630 deal with it. And that's the mindset you have to go through. Knowing that you're going to lose, and how you get through that. Are you going to quit because you
76 00:14:06,630 --> 00:14:17,550 had adversity. If you fail on the short term, that's not retirement. And you need to understand that this is going to be a lifelong thing. I have losing
77 00:14:17,550 --> 00:14:29,130 trades, I get it wrong. I miss moves, that is not entirely equivalent to failure. It just means you have speed bumps, you're getting in the right
78 00:14:29,130 --> 00:14:43,890 direction, but you're not getting there at the pace, you probably would rather go to it. expect it to be challenging, but worth it. Just like working out. It
79 00:14:43,890 --> 00:14:53,730 doesn't feel good. You know to be sore the next day or two, but you know that that's progress and continuously doing the same thing and being consistent with
80 00:14:53,730 --> 00:15:05,940 it over time. Remember that submission to time you will see results weight loss turn muscles, more aesthetic look healthy, all those attributes will be a result
81 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:15,600 later down the road. It isn't instant gratification, it isn't I'm going to open up an account with 500 bucks. And then all of a sudden I'm quitting. You know,
82 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:26,040 6090 days later, it doesn't work that way, folks. Okay, as good as I am. And as good as my concepts are, you will be working your job. If you just started 90
83 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:35,190 days from now, you're probably going to be working a year from now. Okay? I'm, I'm real, okay, I'm not gonna lie to you. I'm not gonna sugarcoat it. Okay. But
84 00:15:35,550 --> 00:15:50,010 can you be entirely absolutely self sufficient, in under five years? Yes. It's like anything else, you go to college, you go on there to learn a skill or a
85 00:15:50,010 --> 00:16:00,660 profession, like a lawyer or a doctor, you have to submit to things, you get to learn things, and it doesn't come just because you enrolled in college doesn't
86 00:16:00,660 --> 00:16:08,790 mean you get to go out and be a doctor. Okay? It doesn't work that way. And same as this, just because you're watching my videos or anybody else's course, it
87 00:16:08,790 --> 00:16:18,840 doesn't immediately give you the skill set to be able to do what you hope to do over time. So expect it to be challenging, like anything else, anything worth
88 00:16:19,050 --> 00:16:31,500 learning, or doing or having comes with a cost, not necessarily financial cost.  But it's going to cost you in time, energy effort. And many times in the
89 00:16:31,500 --> 00:16:41,550 beginning, it's going to feel like you're doing everything backwards and going nowhere. And that is normal. That's normal. No one told me that was normal in
90 00:16:41,550 --> 00:16:49,290 the beginning. And I quit dozens of times, which was really just me putting the books aside for a couple weeks, and then coming back to it cuz I hated my job.
91 00:16:49,770 --> 00:16:59,100 Okay? That is what this is going to feel like for the first year or two, it's going to feel like you're wasting your time, it's going to feel like you're
92 00:16:59,100 --> 00:17:09,600 never going to get it, but expect that. And every time it happens, you just talk to yourself and say, I got into this for a career and a lifestyle. And it
93 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:19,980 doesn't come to me overnight. And if everybody else that works these high paying jobs, and they have to go into school for multiple years, four years, six years,
94 00:17:20,250 --> 00:17:31,680 to get that certification to be able to be equipped to get the jobs and careers that pay extremely well. Why should you think that this is going to be any less
95 00:17:31,710 --> 00:17:32,340 difficult?
96 00:17:33,390 --> 00:17:43,860 Because you're competing with the hardest people to overcome the banks. They're not in the business to give away their money. And they're not in the business to
97 00:17:43,860 --> 00:17:54,120 help you. Okay? They didn't create these marks to say, hey, look, you know, Michael's fresh out of school. He's going through college, and he's, you know,
98 00:17:54,570 --> 00:18:02,850 he's working on, you know, good career, let's help him out and build up some of his nest egg and give him some winning trades. Yeah, I don't feel I don't feel
99 00:18:02,850 --> 00:18:12,870 good for him right. Now. That didn't happen for me. Isn't that gonna happen for you. So just expect it to be challenging, but I promise you, I promise you,
100 00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:25,950 there is no words to describe the feeling once you have this skill set. It's something that can't be articulated not by me, not by any author, because it's
101 00:18:25,950 --> 00:18:35,430 yours. And no one can take it from you. It's a skill set that you can walk into any asset class and find income, doesn't mean you're going to go through it 1%
102 00:18:35,430 --> 00:18:44,730 when No, you're going to lose trades, you're going to have losing trades. But you're going to be able to find a niche in this. So that way you can carve out a
103 00:18:44,730 --> 00:18:59,130 career or an income. Don't buy every course you see. Now that's the biggest thing going on right now. And it's gonna sound hypocritical, because I sell or I
104 00:18:59,130 --> 00:19:07,050 sold rather don't do it anymore. All of my students that I have under my wing right now for mentorship, that's all they'll ever be. There is no future
105 00:19:07,050 --> 00:19:18,360 mentorship, there is no 2022, no 2023 mentorship. I'm coming back to this channel next March in 2022. To be a little bit more frequent with teaching and
106 00:19:18,360 --> 00:19:30,180 videos and such. But until then, my focus is on my mentorship group. There is a lot of folks out there that are taking the things that I teach here, and what
107 00:19:30,180 --> 00:19:39,570 they've learned from mentorship and they're creating courses of their own. The same people aren't equipped with experience. They have no idea what I'm going to
108 00:19:39,570 --> 00:19:48,600 teach it later on. And many times they paired other people out there that aren't even profitable traders, either. It just sounds good. It they package it up.
109 00:19:48,780 --> 00:19:59,550 They put themselves in front of cars they don't own. They go on trips with money from subscribers, and believe me, if I were to spend just one quarter of what I
110 00:19:59,550 --> 00:20:08,760 make a week From mentorship subscriptions, I would put everybody else on Instagram on welfare. That's the contrast. And you still don't see me doing
111 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:18,000 those things. Because it doesn't do anything but build a false image, don't buy every course you see, because 90% of the time, the people that are selling that
112 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:19,890 course, don't make money.
113 00:20:25,470 --> 00:20:33,900 Do not try to mimic someone else, regardless of image. Now I get a lot of folks that come to me and use it the young men, they'll come in, and they'll watch my
114 00:20:33,900 --> 00:20:43,020 videos, they'll hear how I talk, and it feels cool to them. Okay, and they want to talk like me, they want to sound like me, they want to pretend to be just
115 00:20:43,020 --> 00:20:58,350 like me. And that is something that you should avoid doing. You need to find your own character, your own persona, your own approach to this. Now, obviously,
116 00:20:58,860 --> 00:21:11,190 I have fingerprints of my own mentors, as I came up, like Larry Williams, there's a lot of things that he pressed upon me in 1995, when I was first
117 00:21:11,190 --> 00:21:20,940 introduced to his works. And those things, okay, are gonna find its way in this video, because it's important for you to understand the main takeaway from this
118 00:21:20,970 --> 00:21:33,510 volume in this series. And we'll get to that in a minute. But the things that Larry does, as a trader, I don't necessarily do, but I'm going to teach you one
119 00:21:33,510 --> 00:21:42,930 of the biggest lessons I learned from him in 1995. And it still holds true today, I'm going to show you how to get a hold of the information I use to get
120 00:21:42,930 --> 00:21:53,790 this information. And it's a resource that I think that every trader should have, I don't care if you are a stock trader, I don't care if you are a forex
121 00:21:53,790 --> 00:22:06,360 trader, or a futures trader, I don't care, this concept is crucial, in my opinion, to having consistency, and longevity and where your analysis begins.
122 00:22:15,750 --> 00:22:27,360 When you're first starting out, and if I were starting all over again, I would be focusing on why market trades higher or lower, what makes it trade higher and
123 00:22:27,360 --> 00:22:39,990 lower, and it's not buying and selling pressure, okay, markets don't go up, because buyers are pushing it up before a buyer can pay for the asset class. at
124 00:22:39,990 --> 00:22:50,220 a higher price, it has to be offered at a higher price. There's this disconnect between what people think the markets are doing and how they book and the
125 00:22:50,220 --> 00:23:04,590 reality buying pressure is not offering that higher price. Because if that's the case, why is it that there's markets that go from one price, and I'll use a
126 00:23:04,860 --> 00:23:16,080 commodity as an example. Okay, there's buying, buying buying in moves going up, and all of a sudden the market just opens up the next day limit up. So what
127 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:25,740 you're saying is, is everybody bought at the same time and pushed price to that opening price that doesn't go anywhere. This is that was the trigger for me to
128 00:23:25,740 --> 00:23:39,690 understand that it's not buying pressure. It's not buyers that make that price go up. It's the sellers that are offering the commodity or price on an asset.
129 00:23:40,260 --> 00:23:54,990 Now if we're talking about forex, who is the holder, producer, Comptroller of the Currency, the central bank. So prices go up because they're offered at a
130 00:23:54,990 --> 00:24:03,540 higher price. And there's no limit to how high that price can be offered up, it doesn't make a difference. If there's a lack of buying, the market will still
131 00:24:03,540 --> 00:24:13,740 keep going up if they want to go up. That's a hard thing for many traders to get it through their head. But that's exactly what goes on. It's not the buying
132 00:24:13,770 --> 00:24:22,830 pushes it up there. It's the offering always it's the offering. And when the price goes down, it's the same thing. They keep offering it lower and lower and
133 00:24:22,830 --> 00:24:32,460 lower and lower. It's not the sellers that drove it down there or a lack of buyers. It's the offering of that price at that price because they want that
134 00:24:32,460 --> 00:24:46,470 price. The bank's own it. It's their commodity. It's their product. So it may be in their interest for a country to have its currency devalued to a certain
135 00:24:46,470 --> 00:24:55,050 degree. It won't make a difference how many people come in and think it's cheap and buy it up. If they want it to go lower, it's going to go lower. And it's not
136 00:24:55,050 --> 00:25:08,190 because a lack of buyers or more sellers than there was buyers. It's Control, they control their storehouse, inside their storehouse, their good or product is
137 00:25:08,340 --> 00:25:19,410 the currency price. That's the way it is. That's market making folks. It's not the guy that sits at a desk, and deals through that specific bank or brokerage.
138 00:25:19,740 --> 00:25:32,400 That's a dealer, that's not a market maker. Okay, a market maker starts with the price, they control the price, they control that assets, cost, and where it's
139 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:44,700 gonna go. Just like if you own a shoe store, your product or commodity is the shoe, who sets the price on that pair of shoes. You, you own a store. If you
140 00:25:44,700 --> 00:25:52,620 want to keep the price higher, and no one's buying it and you want to keep raising the price up. Whoops, what's preventing you? Nothing, you can set the
141 00:25:52,620 --> 00:26:02,430 price to whatever you want it to be. Why is it so hard for people to understand this, the central bank is in control period. They don't care if you're buying
142 00:26:02,460 --> 00:26:10,230 the currency. And they don't care if you're selling short. They're doing what they're going to do because it's their prerogative. And how's that for logic,
143 00:26:10,770 --> 00:26:21,900 but you have to understand what makes these markets go up and go down their interest rate Central. And there are certain factors that push price from a
144 00:26:21,900 --> 00:26:31,320 monetary policy stance that is useful, but not always a panacea. It doesn't always equate just as simple as that it's not a black and white type thing.
145 00:26:32,580 --> 00:26:39,270 There has to be some logic and narrative understood. So you have to go into that. And I would be spending my time if I started all over again, I'll be
146 00:26:39,270 --> 00:26:46,740 focusing primarily on what makes a market trade higher and lower. And actually, I'm going to teach that in this video.
147 00:26:49,799 --> 00:26:58,859 And you only studying where a market is likely to trade to, it's not important for you to know where the beginning of a move is. You just need to know that,
148 00:26:58,889 --> 00:27:08,129 okay, a move is underway. And where is it likely going. Because if you can figure that out, you don't need to be in at the beginning of every move. You
149 00:27:08,129 --> 00:27:17,219 don't need to be in at the best entry on buys, or the best entry on shorts. You don't need that. But every book, every Instagram guy, every person on YouTube,
150 00:27:17,309 --> 00:27:28,859 and maybe even maybe my videos sometimes give that impression that you have to do that. No, if you are focusing on precision, then it becomes an issue where
151 00:27:28,889 --> 00:27:42,419 you're pursuing that. But you don't necessarily need that. I would be spending and you should be spending time in past price action most of the time, no words
152 00:27:42,599 --> 00:27:55,169 back testing, seeing what patterns occur on specific days of the week, how the weekly range expands up or down and how those individual days deliver price and
153 00:27:55,169 --> 00:28:04,769 work with an economic calendar to pair that idea with the underlying narrative.  And what do I mean by that? If you think that the market is primarily bullish,
154 00:28:05,699 --> 00:28:16,739 and you go back through the last several weeks or a couple months, and you study how price was going up on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, okay, what time of day
155 00:28:16,769 --> 00:28:26,159 on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday was the best optimal trade entry forming. And which day of that week on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, was there a medium or
156 00:28:26,159 --> 00:28:34,919 high impact news event. And you'll start seeing these patterns have very similar reoccurring signatures that this keep recurring over and over and over again.
157 00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:47,819 That is where I would be pouring myself into to get that experience. Even though I can't technically trade those moves in the past. It gives me pseudo experience
158 00:28:48,119 --> 00:28:59,069 that helps me identify a pattern because of multiple times, throughout my study time, whether it be an hour each day or two hours a day, in the evening time
159 00:28:59,069 --> 00:29:07,139 after you come home from work or after school or whatever, you pour through a chart and you really study it well. Now, if you're doing back testing, you can
160 00:29:07,139 --> 00:29:16,139 do as many markets as you want, because you're just back testing. But you want to pour yourself into that looking for reoccurring patterns. And what it does is
161 00:29:16,229 --> 00:29:25,769 it trains your brain to see these things as an example, and over time how they look like one another but they're not exactly the same, but they have very
162 00:29:25,769 --> 00:29:35,159 similar characteristics. That is the beginning foundation to you being able to see them form before they actually start moving in your favor on the hard right
163 00:29:35,159 --> 00:29:48,749 edge of every chart. Everybody wants to kind of like cut that part out. But back testing and study in hindsight is absolutely crucial. Nobody, not one profitable
164 00:29:48,749 --> 00:30:00,839 trader that makes money or made wealth out of trading ever, ever skipped this part. It's always there. That characteristic is synonymous with a Successful,
165 00:30:00,869 --> 00:30:12,359 consistently profitable trader, I would start a study journal, which would be very easy because I've been journaling since I was a teenager. So I would keep a
166 00:30:12,359 --> 00:30:21,689 study journal and record your observations. And much like what I just said here, in the number three bullet point was, in the past price action, I will be
167 00:30:21,689 --> 00:30:33,299 recording examples of my observations, and how often a specific phenomenon repeats. Try to keep your study as simplified as possible, try not to have too
168 00:30:33,299 --> 00:30:39,959 many moving parts. Now obviously, if you come to my YouTube channel, it looks like I have 1000 different things, and have a myriad different ways of going
169 00:30:39,959 --> 00:30:48,419 through when looking for this pattern and this approach, and you don't need every one of the things that I teach, you just need one of them. And you want to
170 00:30:48,419 --> 00:30:59,999 try to keep it very simple. Learn when markets are likely to behave a certain way. Now, what do I mean by that? Well, there's a phenomenon called seasonal
171 00:30:59,999 --> 00:31:13,469 tendencies. Okay. And I wasn't aware of what that was until I got exposed to it through les Williams course. It's on four VHS tapes. And you've probably heard
172 00:31:13,469 --> 00:31:21,059 me talk about it many times, if you're a constant reader reviewer of my YouTube channel, it's the future managers confidential trading course, by Larry
173 00:31:21,059 --> 00:31:33,299 Williams. And he introduced the idea of seasonal tendencies. And he mentioned his longtime friend Jake Bernstein. And I have purchased unused everything from
174 00:31:33,299 --> 00:31:45,629 Jake Bernstein and lost money every single time. So that is not a guy you want to go to for seasonal tendencies, no offense intended, but it just avoid that.
175 00:31:45,719 --> 00:31:46,199 Okay.
176 00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:59,520 The gentleman that Larry Williams referenced in net course, this was a new 1995 was Steve Moore. And obviously, I'll show you a sample chart in this recording,
177 00:31:59,790 --> 00:32:06,690 and show you what it is a seasonal tendency is and what it's useful for. And I'll show you how to get in touch with him. So that way you can subscribe to his
178 00:32:06,690 --> 00:32:15,720 service, I do not get anything for it. So this is not a product placement. I'm not getting money from anybody who's subscribing. He doesn't even know who I am.
179 00:32:16,020 --> 00:32:23,250 I've never made any reference to Hey, you know, I'm going to advertise your stuff. He has no idea. I'm even mentioning him in this video. There is no
180 00:32:23,250 --> 00:32:37,230 affiliation, none whatsoever. Okay. I'm only telling you what I have faith in that has served me well, since 1995. These seasonal tendencies are highly,
181 00:32:37,350 --> 00:32:52,530 highly influential in my decision making. And I think you'll see why as we go forward. I would be and I suggest that you also to be a specialist, a single
182 00:32:52,530 --> 00:33:02,910 market or to at most. When I was a 20 year old, I was trading commodities. And I wanted to be in every possible commodity there was. And I didn't have a big
183 00:33:02,910 --> 00:33:15,780 account. But there was midam contracts, which is like a mini of a full commodity account. For instance, if you were trading soybeans, okay, or corn or wheat,
184 00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:26,370 they traded in 5000 bushel contracts. And you can do mid AMS, which were like 1000 bushels. And it was one quarter of the margin that was required, or they're
185 00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:39,180 real close to it. And I was trying to be in every possible move there was. And my attention was so diluted by looking at multiple things, I found that I ended
186 00:33:39,180 --> 00:33:47,370 up getting scared of being in the moves. Like I didn't want to be in the mood, even if I was seeing the moves moving in my favor. I just couldn't stand the
187 00:33:47,370 --> 00:33:58,200 pressure of being able to be babysitting all of these moves. So I learned through hardship to be a specialist. I focus primarily on the s&p and I focused
188 00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:09,480 on the bond market. Those two markets were my pets just like today is the British Pound versus US dollar, and Euro USD. Those are my two primary markets,
189 00:34:09,780 --> 00:34:17,580 I can find a move every single week in one or the other of that pair. And that's all I'm concerned about. I'm not trying to trade every single day even though I
190 00:34:17,580 --> 00:34:26,010 can trade every day. I don't want to trade every day and I want to be a specialist. That means I'm looking for a specific move within a framework on a
191 00:34:26,010 --> 00:34:33,480 particular day that there's likely a move going to happen because of volatility, which it would be associated with the economic calendar having a medium impact
192 00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:43,770 or high impact news event that's central to that currency. So if I know that there's going to be a medium impact or high impact news event on Tuesday, for
193 00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:56,340 Euro or in Germany, then it's also during the New York session between say 830 anymore until 11 o'clock in the morning, New York local time, that I know that
194 00:34:56,340 --> 00:35:03,480 there is something that I want to be focusing my attention on and that It's the only market I'm concerned about, I don't care what the s&p is doing today. I
195 00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:12,270 don't care what Gold's doing. I don't care what crypto is doing. I'm focusing on that particular market, I'm a specialist, there's an opportunity making itself
196 00:35:12,270 --> 00:35:20,250 available. And I want to be there present and not have my attention diluted, because I'm doing other things in other markets, I don't care about other
197 00:35:20,250 --> 00:35:29,670 things, I want something that is sure as I possibly can be, is it likely to be high probability, that's what I'm looking for. And I want as many things in my
198 00:35:29,670 --> 00:35:39,840 favor to do that. And that's a specialist, one market or two, but closely correlated. And that way, you're limiting your focus there, you're controlling
199 00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:47,010 your attention. Remember, the first thing I talked about in the beginning of this video, that is an important thing, you're not being distracted with other
200 00:35:47,010 --> 00:35:52,320 things, you don't care what everybody else is doing. You're not even going to know what everyone else has done. Because you're not on social media, you're not
201 00:35:52,320 --> 00:36:02,370 in these chat rooms, you're not in telegrams, you're not in there's no holding your hands out hoping someone spoon feed you something. You're focusing on your
202 00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:06,870 task, your development is everyone else. And me too.
203 00:36:07,950 --> 00:36:20,520 I can't get you to that next level, without you putting your focus and your effort in what it is that you're trying to do. And if you ask other people, if
204 00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:27,360 you're spending time looking at what everybody else is doing, that's time that you should be taking and applying it to your back testing, and your personal
205 00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:37,290 development, you're cheating yourself, you're stealing from your future self, every single time you give your attention, or your time worship, when someone
206 00:36:37,290 --> 00:36:48,390 else on Instagram, someone else on YouTube, even me, you should budget your time. mean watch a video at most, one or two a day or every other day. And don't
207 00:36:48,390 --> 00:36:56,430 binge watch, even though you might be fascinated as a young person, not necessarily an older person to I mean, you can come here and fall into a real D
208 00:36:56,430 --> 00:37:05,010 rabbit hole and go through all kinds of videos and learn a lot but not retain a lot. So you have to budget that. But be a specialist go in, pick a series in
209 00:37:05,010 --> 00:37:12,660 this YouTube channel and go through it make a plan that, okay, this video series has eight videos or whatever. I'm going to do one every other day, I'm going to
210 00:37:12,660 --> 00:37:23,310 take notes, and I'm going to really think about what it is that I've learned.  And you're being a specialist. You're focusing with a intended result in mind,
211 00:37:23,310 --> 00:37:31,680 but you're not expecting it to come real quick. You're not expecting it to be easy. And you're not expecting me to entice you to go out there and trade 28
212 00:37:31,710 --> 00:37:34,170 pairs in the Forex market because you just watched the video.
213 00:37:39,240 --> 00:37:52,110 centralize your efforts on a single model. Now, what's a model? trading plan? Or a script that you follow as a routine? What's your process? Okay. But in short,
214 00:37:52,290 --> 00:38:05,250 your trading plan trading plan to me just sounds like it's the too big, you know, everybody has a trading plan until the market hour starts. And then he
215 00:38:05,250 --> 00:38:16,590 abandoned. I have a model, I have multiple trading models. They are very specific. They are very articulate. They don't speak in vague terms. It's very
216 00:38:16,590 --> 00:38:26,010 binary. If this happens, I'm looking to do this. If this hasn't provided the information for that to be true, then I wait or then I do this is a very
217 00:38:26,010 --> 00:38:37,380 specific recipe, okay, that I follow, which is an algorithm, that algorithmic theory helps me go in and make decisions and tells him when to wait for more
218 00:38:37,380 --> 00:38:47,700 information and not execute yet. For now is the time to execute. Where does my stop go? When do I move my stop? When do I take partials that's your model.
219 00:38:48,090 --> 00:39:00,210 Okay, but you should be centralizing all of your efforts initially, with framing one simple single model, one approach, not a an approach to catches every move
220 00:39:00,330 --> 00:39:12,690 that doesn't exist. I don't have one model that catches everything. I have unique models for specific market conditions. So while I it's probably not
221 00:39:12,690 --> 00:39:20,310 beneficial for you to think that way. But I want to make a distinction between having the expectation as a young person coming into this industry where you
222 00:39:20,310 --> 00:39:28,500 think, well, I'm going to have this fishing net approach, Rob this cast and net and I'll catch everything, you know, that's, that's foolishness. You can't do
223 00:39:28,500 --> 00:39:36,060 that. Okay? And I'm not saying you can't do that. So you can feel challenging, I'm going to prove ICT wrong. Because that was the mindset I had when I was
224 00:39:36,060 --> 00:39:44,730 younger. I was seeing my own failures, trying to do that. And I would tell myself while I was at work, I mean, I'm not gonna fail this, I'm gonna do it,
225 00:39:44,790 --> 00:39:54,480 and I'm gonna do it even more. And I wasted money, wasted time and drove myself nuts. centralize your efforts on doing one thing. Now what's the one thing
226 00:39:55,110 --> 00:40:04,890 what's the suggested single model, the optimal trade entry that I teach you on this channel. It's a very simple pattern, it repeats multiple times every single
227 00:40:04,890 --> 00:40:16,920 week, in every single market, it occurs, there isn't a market out there that you cannot find this pattern forming at least one time each week, when it's highly
228 00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:30,900 probable to form. You can't ask for anything better than that. It's simply one of the most easy approaches to trading there is develop a framework for a market
229 00:40:30,900 --> 00:40:39,540 based on high timeframe bias. And what does that mean? daily chart weekly chart, something to that effect, nothing less than a four hour, okay, and I'm not
230 00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:47,280 really trying to entice you to look below the daily chart. But if you do nothing less than four hours perspective, so whatever that you think the market is
231 00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:55,380 likely to do, whether it be bullish or bearish on a four hour or daily preferably, that is the framework you should be focusing on. So all your trades
232 00:40:55,380 --> 00:41:05,880 should be formed on what that daily chart and if it needs to be referred to on the four hour chart for further refinement, or maybe confirmation, then so be
233 00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:15,270 it. But we're not trying to frame a one minute bias. We're not trying to fit in five minutes or an hourly chart bias, we're trying to frame it on the higher
234 00:41:15,270 --> 00:41:25,290 timeframe. Now, why is that important? Because the thing I'm going to talk about in this video is central to a higher time frame bias. In fact, it's closer to a
235 00:41:25,290 --> 00:41:41,580 weekly chart. And finally, find one set up determine an easy low effort target.  Now, what does that mean? Find a way that when you get into your pattern, you
236 00:41:41,580 --> 00:41:54,180 know where you're getting out at. and fall in love with that simplicity. Avoid trying to get the best are the highest are so that we can go on social media say
237 00:41:54,180 --> 00:42:04,890 yeah, to 200 to one our, that does not repeat over and over and over again. The folks that parrot that stuff and go out there and say they do it. They will all
238 00:42:04,890 --> 00:42:16,770 be billionaires by now. Okay, and they're still only repping an account with a couple $1,000. So if they're getting these 200 350 our trades all the time. Why
239 00:42:16,770 --> 00:42:20,070 is it their account only shows at best a couple $1,000.
240 00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:31,590 Think about it, folks, that's not the way this games one, it's consistently finding one repeating pattern, knowing when to get in it, where to put your stop
241 00:42:31,590 --> 00:42:39,420 loss at and where you're taking your profits and getting to the sidelines. So that way you can think clearly relax, enjoy what you're doing, and then wait for
242 00:42:39,420 --> 00:42:51,090 the next setup. You're not going to turn every single trade into 30 are and nobody even myself, I have no way of knowing with any assurity that a trades
243 00:42:51,090 --> 00:43:03,300 going to move 200 to one. No one knows that. But if you watch these instagramers YouTubers, these discord rooms, telegram channels, they're all going to tell you
244 00:43:03,300 --> 00:43:12,090 they're doing it. And I've put real money on the line. And I said, Listen, if that's true, and you're able to do it showed that you made $100,000 profitable.
245 00:43:13,710 --> 00:43:21,840 They don't do it. Not even for a half a million dollars. He couldn't do it for a million dollars. And I offered it with real money. And not one person on
246 00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:37,380 Instagram stepped forward and took that up. Not one. None of them. Okay. I make lots of money, real money. Now I perform in front of you all, as a demo baller
247 00:43:37,410 --> 00:43:48,630 for compliance reasons. I have made literally millions of dollars of real currency. And these folks know I have real hard currency. And when I put it up
248 00:43:48,630 --> 00:44:00,180 there and said here should if you made $100,000 they can't do it. But they're quick to show you their $100,000 cars that they're leasing, showing you all the
249 00:44:00,180 --> 00:44:11,760 things they spend money on with the currency that comes to them through their payments of their courses. I'm not lying to you. I make millions of dollars
250 00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:24,450 doing that. But you don't see my stuff. You see me trading, but they're trying to do things that they cannot do with their delivery in their packaging, and the
251 00:44:24,450 --> 00:44:34,560 words they're promising you something they can't themselves do. I don't do that.  I've proven multiple times over and over and over again that this stuff works.
252 00:44:34,830 --> 00:44:44,970 And my challenge to you is for you to go through this content. and see for yourself if it doesn't find consistency. There's nothing close to this. There's
253 00:44:44,970 --> 00:44:55,110 nothing out there except for people that rip, rip it off and copy it. But that's going to happen when you have something that's hot, it's works and it's
254 00:44:55,380 --> 00:45:04,470 unrivaled. Everybody wants a piece of that train, okay. They want to get on it.  They want to write it. But none of these other folks out there can do what I can
255 00:45:04,470 --> 00:45:17,400 do. And they have no idea that things I've held back still on these concepts.  They all talk the language, but they are unable to do it, you need to just do
256 00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:28,800 one simple thing. determine a bias, know when it's high probability, enter it, how to frame it for risk, where your stop loss is going to go. And where you're
257 00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:39,090 going to get out at, in the most simplest approach is getting out at the top of the optimal trade entry when you're buying, or the low the optimal trade entry,
258 00:45:39,090 --> 00:45:50,940 when you're selling short. If you just did that, consistently over and over and over again, that's profitable, you don't need high multiples of reward to risk.
259 00:45:52,290 --> 00:46:04,860 To make money, you don't need that. And you don't need more than one to one to make money. You can do one to one over and over and over again, if you have the
260 00:46:04,890 --> 00:46:15,660 signatures behind the trade, you start with one to one, don't listen to these Yahoo's out here saying you have to have five to one three to one, four to 120
261 00:46:15,660 --> 00:46:29,400 to 110, to one to survive. Now you don't know you don't. You can go in here and put the same risk on that you have expected as a result for profitability. And
262 00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:39,480 if you are framing the trades with one of the signatures I'm going to show you here, you have the odds stacked in your favor, far more than if you didn't use
263 00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:40,680 this information I'm going to show you.
264 00:46:49,409 --> 00:46:58,769 Alright, we finally got to it by board the socks off for most of you. Alright, so what we're looking at here, this is a seasonal tendency, okay, and this is a
265 00:46:58,769 --> 00:47:07,709 seasonal tendency of the Canadian dollar futures market. Now, for some of you that are familiar with futures trading, this might be very fascinating for you,
266 00:47:07,739 --> 00:47:16,319 for everyone else that's getting involved with forex, you're familiar with the dollar CAD pair, okay, but this is actually showing you the seasonal tendency
267 00:47:16,319 --> 00:47:27,629 for the Canadian dollar futures. I want you to see this area right here between March and April. Okay. And notice this red line here, the red line is the 15
268 00:47:27,629 --> 00:47:39,119 year average of what the Canadian dollar did for the last 15 years, or when this chart was actually created. The blue line is a 40 year average of what the
269 00:47:39,119 --> 00:47:53,459 Canadian futures market does, as a whole. Now, this is a product that is put out by Steve Moore, and his website is down here in the lower left hand corner. It's
270 00:47:53,489 --> 00:48:07,319 www.mr ci.co M, so you are welcome to go there and subscribe and get information you can't really find anywhere else. It's he is, in my opinion, the absolute
271 00:48:07,349 --> 00:48:19,079 best when it comes to seasonal tendencies. Larry Williams subscribed to him prior to 1995. And he swore that, you know, he felt confident that he had the
272 00:48:19,079 --> 00:48:33,809 best product for seasonal tendencies. And I have monitored and kept up with Steve Moore's research since 1995. And here we are in 2021. And it is so
273 00:48:34,079 --> 00:48:45,509 unbelievably consistent. Now, how do you use it? What I would go into the marketplace looking for these periods of the year. And I would focus primarily
274 00:48:45,509 --> 00:48:55,709 on these times only. And if it wasn't a time like this, I would not be trading or worrying about that market any other time. Now, what am I talking about?
275 00:48:57,089 --> 00:49:08,489 Notice between March and April, that the red line and the blue line, these are not indicators folks, all this is is number crunching real data and showing you
276 00:49:08,489 --> 00:49:20,789 the average over 15 years on the red line and 40 years. So it's really given you a clean approach to measuring the seasonal tendencies or the effects of seasonal
277 00:49:23,069 --> 00:49:36,479 over this particular currency. So what I'm saying to you is and suggesting also is that at this time, both the red and the blue line starts going up in March.
278 00:49:37,289 --> 00:49:48,629 So it goes up until around May. Okay and then may usually we see some of a little bit of correction in both the 40 year blue line and in the red 15 year
279 00:49:48,779 --> 00:50:02,339 average. So we have a real strong impulse or tendency to occur in march up to me, so Canadian dollar when these conditions are noticeable. Okay, no words, if
280 00:50:02,339 --> 00:50:11,489 the market is likely to go higher, no words, it's been a bullish trend. It's been going up, maybe the dollar is about to go down or it's been going down. The
281 00:50:11,489 --> 00:50:22,919 Canadian Dollar futures market is likely to go up from March into May. That's a seasonal tendency. How do you use this information? Well, if we go to a chart,
282 00:50:23,399 --> 00:50:36,689 this is the actual Canadian futures. You can see here, March 2020, the market creates a run higher, just like a seasonal tendency. We can see here on March of
283 00:50:36,689 --> 00:50:45,989 2021, same thing, the market creates a low and starts trading higher too. So the seasonal tendency is, in fact, something that you can see visually, does it mean
284 00:50:45,989 --> 00:50:55,379 that every single year, Canadian dollar futures is going to rally march to me?  No, because if the markets bearish, I don't expect this seasonal tendencies
285 00:50:55,589 --> 00:50:56,189 form.
286 00:50:59,820 --> 00:51:11,940 Now, if we compare and contrast, the orange line here, that is the dollar CAD forex pair, and I'm showing you the data for forex.com. Here's that Canadian
287 00:51:11,940 --> 00:51:23,460 futures contract price. And as you would expect, the dollar CAD pair is a mirror image of that. So we have the high trading down lower. So everything we see
288 00:51:23,460 --> 00:51:33,570 Canadian futures going up in a seasonal tendencies measuring that particular market. Well, because the pair in this name is dollar CAD, this is showing the
289 00:51:33,570 --> 00:51:44,340 relationship of the dollar versus the Canadian dollar. So dollar would be going down versus Canadian dollar, you see the Canadian futures price is going up, the
290 00:51:44,340 --> 00:51:53,190 dollar is going to be moving opposite. So since it's going lower, the first currency in the pair dollar CAD is the US dollar. So that's why we're seeing
291 00:51:53,190 --> 00:52:03,120 this going lower. So with that in mind, let's go over to the actual chart of dollar CAD. And you can see the mirror image of that. And between March, we
292 00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:14,700 create a high and it starts to go lower. And again, here, March, we create a high end stocks to trade lower. So you can see the effects of the seasonal
293 00:52:14,700 --> 00:52:21,480 tendency in the Forex pair, but it's linked directly to the futures contract the Canadian dollar.
294 00:52:27,810 --> 00:52:36,630 Now, again, back to the seasonal tenancy, here, we can see a strong bearish seasonal tendency in the month of October going down into December. So we'll do
295 00:52:36,630 --> 00:52:47,610 the same thing we just did. We're going to pull out the Canadian dollar futures and when it's bearish. Okay, this seasonal tendency is for what october november
296 00:52:47,670 --> 00:52:57,780 look at the high between October and November forming, what was the market prior to that hi bearish. So a strong seasonal tendency for this currency to go lower
297 00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:09,390 begins in October to November. And I'll be looking for shorts all into December.  Now, here's what I would suggest you do, I want you to go through here and count
298 00:53:09,390 --> 00:53:17,130 how many times you see an optimal trade entry forming just on the daily chart.  See how many times they form. Now you probably don't know that until trade entry
299 00:53:17,130 --> 00:53:27,840 is unless you've gone to the YouTube videos here. But there is a optimal trade entry primer video. And then I do a pattern recognition series for optimal trade
300 00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:37,440 entry, which is like 20 videos where it's just showing you every single day, and optimal trade entry forming. Well, you can see a lot of that forming in here. So
301 00:53:37,470 --> 00:53:47,880 what I'm showing you is that there is a way to see these seasonal tendencies as a road map, okay, if you buy a map, you go to the truck stop or you go to a
302 00:53:48,030 --> 00:53:57,240 bookstore and you buy a map of your local area. And you open up the map to your local area and you see where you are and where you want to go to a point of
303 00:53:57,240 --> 00:54:09,000 interest. Okay, somewhere in your vicinity. If you go through the multiple ways of getting between where you are, or home to that point of interest, you have
304 00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:19,260 multiple choices to get there. But once you figure out the shortest, easiest route with no tolls, is that route gonna change the next time you open up the
305 00:54:19,260 --> 00:54:30,210 map? No, but you may encounter detours that you don't really see on the map once you get after you start driving. That's what the season tendency is okay.
306 00:54:30,240 --> 00:54:41,340 Sometimes the market will change gears and the seasonal tendency that may shift from a bullish time period may actually develop into a bearish market and and
307 00:54:41,340 --> 00:54:50,610 the seasonal tendency will evaporate. That's the inherent risk to this. But I want you to understand that these seasonal tendencies when you know what the
308 00:54:50,820 --> 00:55:01,650 higher timeframe biases if it's bullish or bearish, they have a high probability of painting out which is the benefit of seeing that fifth 10 year average and 40
309 00:55:01,650 --> 00:55:09,930 year, folks, 40 years that's longer than I've been trading. But if you can see, these seasonal tendencies are in agreement with the 15 year average and a 40
310 00:55:09,930 --> 00:55:22,470 year average, you really have a way of showing and proving, statistically, that there is an edge to working on that side of the marketplace, if you are in a
311 00:55:22,470 --> 00:55:31,560 bearish or bullish market. So it allows you to go in with that mindset. This is the number one reason why my trading when I sit down and start doing these
312 00:55:31,560 --> 00:55:41,040 public displays of, you know, running up accounts and doing this and doing that I'm trading with these things in mind. Because I know there's a high degree of
313 00:55:41,040 --> 00:55:51,180 probability on my side, oh, my in favor of what I'm trying to do, because I'm looking for the best of the best of the best. Not just saying, well, let's see
314 00:55:51,180 --> 00:56:01,920 if the moving averages crossover. This looks like it's a demand zone or a supply zone. I don't do that stuff, folks. I don't look at supply and demand. I don't
315 00:56:01,920 --> 00:56:10,170 look at Elliot waves. I don't look at anything harmonic. I don't put trend lines on my chart, and look for them to be parallel. Okay, I don't look for channels.
316 00:56:10,470 --> 00:56:20,310 I don't look for any of those types of things. I look for order flow, I look for liquidity. And I look for this Hallmark signature that I learned in 1995. From
317 00:56:20,310 --> 00:56:30,900 Larry Williams. There's so much more to this, obviously. But I want you to understand that this is something that if you don't have it in your trading,
318 00:56:30,930 --> 00:56:41,760 you're really missing out. Because it gives you a roadmap of what's likely to occur. Why would you want to trade long, in an instance like this where the
319 00:56:41,760 --> 00:56:51,060 markets already proven itself bearish? And if you notice a seasonal tendency between October and November for it to start trading lower into December? Why
320 00:56:51,060 --> 00:56:59,670 would you look at anything in here as a buy, when everybody else in retail is going to see okay, we we bounced here. So next time it goes down here, it's
321 00:56:59,670 --> 00:57:09,150 probably gonna go up. didn't respect it. Okay, it wasn't this low. It's this low now. So we'll draw a line out here. If it goes down here, it's going to go up.
322 00:57:09,750 --> 00:57:17,220 And when someone buys it here, and it goes up here, they feel smart. And then the inevitable happens smashing goes through. Okay, before it gets to this low
323 00:57:17,220 --> 00:57:24,330 here, they'll start thinking, well, this is the real low, this is the one that's really going to be the one to be a buyer at. And then they'll draw it out in
324 00:57:24,330 --> 00:57:27,330 time when the market gets down here and they try to buy it. Well.
325 00:57:27,960 --> 00:57:38,880 There you go. So they get smashed again. Whereas if you would look at the overall direction of the trend, what's the order flow bearish? What's the
326 00:57:38,880 --> 00:57:51,120 seasonal tendency between October and December on Canadian dollar bearish? Okay, now, look at all the short term lows as areas of resistance, I'm just going to
327 00:57:51,120 --> 00:58:02,910 strip it down to simple retail logic. I can take retail logic when it's used like this, and it suddenly works. That's the part that all the retail traders
328 00:58:02,910 --> 00:58:13,350 and educators don't do. They don't tell you when the times are ideal for you to use the swing lows as resistance. So we have this low once it breaks through
329 00:58:13,350 --> 00:58:24,150 that. You want to see that as resistance. Okay, it trades through it and comes back up from this high to that low. That's an optimal trade entry. And it's
330 00:58:24,180 --> 00:58:32,970 lining up with that low. Notice I'm not demanding that it goes right to that low and stop because that's unreasonable. Same thing with this low right here. It
331 00:58:32,970 --> 00:58:41,730 trades through it. Now it comes right back up in. It's coming back up into this low. But I don't look at it support resistance as it has to go right to that low
332 00:58:41,730 --> 00:58:52,680 and stop. I'm looking forward to trade back into this swing down which would be what optimal trade entry then it goes lower. Same thing with this low here.
333 00:58:52,950 --> 00:59:01,290 There. It trades through it once more than comes right back up for another optimal trade entry from this high for that low back up in 62 to seven 9%
334 00:59:01,290 --> 00:59:10,950 retracement level. retracement, that's optimal trade entry. It's very simple, very, very simple process. This low here, once it trades through it, he does
335 00:59:10,950 --> 00:59:21,450 here trades down through it. Optimal trade entry sells off saying here this low.  It trades through it. Okay, fine, not the high moved through it from this high
336 00:59:21,480 --> 00:59:36,090 down retraces back up optimal trade entry down into December low coming trades is that. Obviously, I have the benefit of hindsight. I'm not going to fancy
337 00:59:36,090 --> 00:59:47,250 dance around that. Okay. But my students know that this is a seasonal tendency.  My students also know the logic and I shared that with you here. There is so
338 00:59:47,250 --> 00:59:56,550 many other trades that are available inside this price swing. I'm only teaching you optimal trade entry. I'm not going to go in there and teach mentorship. I'm
339 00:59:56,550 --> 01:00:03,810 not going to do that. But I talked about seasonal tendencies on this YouTube channel before I even started a mentorship. So I don't want anybody in my
340 01:00:03,810 --> 01:00:12,960 mentorship group getting hurt feelings or anything like that, because I'm not going to go nowhere near the level that I'm doing in mentorship. But this is
341 01:00:12,960 --> 01:00:21,600 something I believe that is useful information. And I showed you where to get the information from, yes, you have to spend a little bit of money. I don't get
342 01:00:21,600 --> 01:00:32,250 anything for it. But I promise you, it is well worth it. It's a resource that Steve Moore has been doing for a long time, it's very, very consistent, you will
343 01:00:32,250 --> 01:00:43,080 lose money. Okay, don't let me make it seemed like this is the panacea to winning every single trade, it's not a be all end all. It's not a magic bullet.
344 01:00:43,500 --> 01:00:56,940 It's just a way of framing out a logical expectation that has statistical information supporting it. In hindsight, through 40 years of data, what he's
345 01:00:56,940 --> 01:01:08,430 done is taken 40 years of data, and compiled it to show the average movement over 40 years. And he shows it to you also, which I'm not showing you here,
346 01:01:08,430 --> 01:01:16,860 because I'm not trying to put everything that he has out. But this is certainly enough. I think it because if I would have saw this the first time, like many of
347 01:01:16,860 --> 01:01:28,320 you probably are, I would be subscribing to his stuff and you being a client or customer and being happy about it. I put this seasonal tendency idea on the
348 01:01:28,320 --> 01:01:37,170 backburner when I first was introduced to it by layaway hands, because it didn't make sense to me. Like it felt like, you know, well, that was after it happened.
349 01:01:37,590 --> 01:01:43,350 And I just don't know if it's going to happen again, because I didn't understand what I was looking at. I didn't understand how to read a market. And I'm
350 01:01:43,380 --> 01:01:53,130 suggesting to you that you probably are going to be in that same position, I can show you where it's good. We can show it to you in hindsight. But my students
351 01:01:53,130 --> 01:02:01,350 have also seen me talk about seasonal tendencies. And in fact, I've made it public knowledge on YouTube in my community tab, where I've literally called the
352 01:02:01,350 --> 01:02:13,380 big grain market run that we've been seeing in soybeans, corn, and wheat, and their moves that are $15,000 per contract and higher. And it's all based on this
353 01:02:13,380 --> 01:02:25,950 idea right here that nobody really is introduced to, unless you've been a student of Larry Williams, like I was in 1995. Or you've been watching my stuff,
354 01:02:26,010 --> 01:02:27,780 because Les, les Williams
355 01:02:29,100 --> 01:02:40,440 doesn't get a lot of attention anymore. And Steve Moore doesn't get a lot of attention as a whole, but he deserves it because he puts a amazing product out.
356 01:02:40,740 --> 01:02:51,780 It's not expensive. And for you to spend the little bit of money that you end up spending to be a customer of his to get this information. To me, it's a bargain.
357 01:02:52,140 --> 01:03:03,540 It's my opinion, it's worth way more than he sells it for, but I got to give credit where it's due. This is one of the tools and who I got the information
358 01:03:03,540 --> 01:03:12,420 from. So that way, you know, I'm not claiming authorship. It's not mine. I told you where I learned it from how I was introduced to it and who does it. There
359 01:03:12,420 --> 01:03:23,970 are lots of seasonal tenancy products out there. And some of the most recent ones are just basically making very close similar lines to what Steve Moore has
360 01:03:23,970 --> 01:03:34,800 been putting out. But nobody comes through like he does, like he gives you supporting factors and and information about these individual markets. He does
361 01:03:34,800 --> 01:03:44,040 it for all the currencies as a futures market. He does it as a commodity. Like if you're a trader for like coffee and gold and silver. He has all those
362 01:03:44,040 --> 01:03:55,230 seasonal tendencies. He's I'm here them all. So to close this video and summarize basically what it is I've mentioned here, if I was 20 years old all
363 01:03:55,230 --> 01:04:05,040 over again, how would I go into the marketplace? And how would I focus on learning developing and developing a specific price action model that would know
364 01:04:05,040 --> 01:04:16,380 when I'm trading, what market and how I will be trading it? Well, this is it. I would look for these types of moves when it's bearish. And I'd be a specialist
365 01:04:16,380 --> 01:04:26,970 between October and December. On the Canadian dollar, I'd be looking to go short Canadian dollar, which would be going long dollar CAD. If we look at that
366 01:04:26,970 --> 01:04:35,250 relationship in comparison, the orange line is the dollar CAD pair. So here's the futures market for Canadian dollars going lower right, just like the
367 01:04:35,250 --> 01:04:45,180 seasonal tendency says it should when it's bearish. If it's a bullish Canadian dollar, would you expect this type of move? No. Can it form Yes, but is it
368 01:04:45,180 --> 01:04:55,800 likely to Probably not. But the opposite is seen here in the orange line which is what the dollar CAD. So this is going up exactly the opposite of what you see
369 01:04:55,800 --> 01:05:10,590 here on the Canadian futures. And if you look at the Dollar CAD pair, October up into December, boom, there you go. That price run in 2018 was a phenomenal price
370 01:05:10,590 --> 01:05:22,500 run. And it's all linked to that seasonal tendency. This simply means and what I'm showcasing here is that there are underlying seasonal tendencies that the
371 01:05:22,500 --> 01:05:33,120 banks usually follow. And because these are currencies, don't think for a moment that they don't have seasonal tendencies that are just as strong as a grain
372 01:05:33,120 --> 01:05:43,770 market like corn and soybeans or even live cattle or lean hogs as a commodity.  These currencies have cyclical factors. And you can ferret out that cyclical
373 01:05:43,770 --> 01:05:53,070 factor with seasonal tendency charts that are reliable, and there's no one else in this industry, in my opinion, has better data, better product, better
374 01:05:53,070 --> 01:06:02,160 statistical probabilities with seasonal tendencies, then that'll Steve Moore, and the website I gave you earlier in the video, so hopefully, you've got
375 01:06:02,160 --> 01:06:10,740 something out of this. And hopefully, you've been inspired to dig into it. And if you're a 20 year old, or a 50 year old or a 40 year old with a 20 year old
376 01:06:10,740 --> 01:06:19,530 heart, you can go into the marketplace with a fresh perspective. And a new outlook for finding these little treasure hunts because that's how I look at it.
377 01:06:19,800 --> 01:06:28,950 I look at these market moves as treasure hunts. And what do you have with the treasure hunt usually have a map right? Well, seasonal tendencies are my
378 01:06:28,950 --> 01:06:32,910 treasure maps. So I'll talk to you next time. Wish you good luck and good trading.