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Version 1.1 by Drunk Monkey on 2020-12-09 05:28
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3 ICT: Okay, folks, good afternoon. Okay, we're gonna take a look at the Canadian
4 dollar. Alright, so we have on the daily chart on the left hand side, you'll see
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8 that price has pulled back into a rather deep retracement. And I'm using this
9 body here. Now, obviously, I could have done this, okay and use the Sunday
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13 candle. You want to do that and certainly nothing wrong with that you'd still
14 get down into optimal trade entry. I'm using this right here, the open on this
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18 candle here. So I want to stick to weekdays, not Sunday candles. So I'm really
19 ignoring this candle here. And this candle actually comes in on the 22nd. Okay,
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23 so we're going to ignore that of October. And we're going to go with the 23rd.
24 Okay, which is a Monday. Just guys see it. Back one month. Here's the Sunday and
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28 we're using the 23rd, which is a Monday. Again, that's this candle. Right here.
29 Right there at 23rd. So that's the Monday, October 23 of 2017. You'll notice on
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33 this day, okay. disregard this candle for a moment. Okay, just imagine that it's
34 not there. Okay, for platforms that don't have Sunday candles, what you would be
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38 left with is a large candle here on the previous Friday. And then Monday's
39 candle here, and then Tuesday. Okay, so in the event that we don't have Sunday
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43 candles, because I've had this regard them among presentations using this
44 platform, this up candle and then Monday's trading, then Tuesday's higher low.
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48 Okay, This to me is a continued swing low. Okay, so for your notes, it's called
49 a continued swing low. That means if we have a big run up, we have a candle
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51 11
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53 immediately after the big up candle. Then we have another candle. That's a
54 higher low. Okay, is it continued? swing low. Okay, so now what you're not
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58 requiring the retracement, if you see this happening here. Now, let me preface
59 it by saying that it's only a continued swing low if the market is bullish. Now
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63 obviously, if you see this environment here, big up candle in this short little
64 swing low type pattern explaining this could many times if it's not bullish,
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68 this could be the top of the marketplace and it starts to come down. So it's not
69 just candlestick patterns. And it's not swing highs and swing lows that fixes
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73 the problem with profitability or consistency. It you still have to have a
74 context understood about where price is most likely going to go. So I'm going to
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78 forego that discussion for the tutorials. But for right now, this formation
79 right here, after a big large candle, one candle, and then a higher low candle.
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83 This is a continued swing low. Okay. So when we have that, we can use that as an
84 anchor point. Okay, and again, this regardless on this candle, and you run that
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88 up now for folks that just simply can't agree with what I'm presenting here
89 today. And you're going to arm wrestle me? Or at least try to arm wrestle me
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91 19
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93 saying oh, well, you know, this is all hindsight to say nothing long short of it
94 is check it, test it. And you'll see it's many times it's in the charts a lot.
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98 Okay, so even if I were just to use this candle here, we're used to Sunday's
99 candle because it is a swing low. In that case, it still gets you to optimal
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103 trade entry. So these candles in here yesterday, Monday's trading, and in
104 today's trading, they are reacting off of that optimal trade entry. So no matter
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108 how you slice it, it is what it is. Okay, so I'm telling you how I did it and
109 how I framed it. So this is what I did. So now we know on a daily chart, we are
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113 in an area where we could potentially see a support level form based on the
114 optimal trade entry 70.5 level. Okay, it comes in, in this daily chart, but this
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118 platform and this data is 127 11. Okay, so now we're gonna go over to the 15
119 minute timeframe and set up our scalps and drop a horizontal line here and I'll
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123 put that right on. The 11th level. Okay, and I'm going to add midnight New York
124 time right there.
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128 So you can see how price has rallied away, came back down dropped into and then
129 price immediately after New York midnight time for running aggressively when
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133 prices start off, right after midnight like this, okay, many of you understand
134 my power three concept where r three stands for accumulation distribution and
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138 manipulation. Okay, that's what power three is. So what would be understood in
139 terms of power three would be the open and accumulation. Okay, so it's one of
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143 three. Okay, the manipulation, the drop down here. Okay, and the rally up, and
144 the distribution here creating the highly day. I'll tell you why that was
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148 probably in a couple minutes. But power three is accumulation and distribution
149 and manipulation. Those three components make up the overall price action from
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153 an institutional mindset and from a smart money perspective. So we have the
154 previous day's high, which is seen here. Okay, so I'm going to take this, drop
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158 it right there. Okay, and I'm just gonna change it a little bit, just so we can
159 distinguish it from the other. Okay, now we have previous day's high right here.
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163 Price gives a immediate run away. Now, the reason why daily intraday price
164 action does this right after New York midnight, is because it's reacting off of
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168 a daily higher timeframe or weekly timeframe. Okay. That's when that's what
169 causes season one way shots right after midnight in New York time. Many times,
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173 you'll see as my tutorials teach that it'll open it's bullish and drop down into
174 around two o'clock, three o'clock in the morning, New York time, create a low of
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178 the day and then rally up and do the same thing here. And in this particular
179 day, it doesn't do that. And the reason why it's because it's moving off of a
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183 higher timeframe daily level. Okay, so put that in your notes as well. So price
184 starts to trade higher and does in fact run previous day's high right here. Now,
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188 when we look for intraday levels, we look for 10 to 20 PIP price swings as my
189 tutorials teach, and I'm just going to quickly put that lipstick on the chart.
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193 Okay, and we're gonna put our line right here and we're gonna draw a rectangle
194 up 20 pips is right there. Okay. There's 20 pips above the previous day's high.
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198 And that takes us to about
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202 right there. Okay, so 120 804. So 120 804 is above the big figure of 128 00.
203 Okay. So, if we're expecting as I was expecting higher prices on dollar CAD, the
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207 reason why I was expecting hard dollar CAD prices is if I go back over to the
208 daily chart on Dollar Index, dollar index hasn't really shown a willingness to
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212 break down yet. Okay, it's actually inside of a pattern, it looks to me, at
213 least for the short term that would be neutral to bullish, I don't see it
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217 wanting to go lower, it's being held in a rather tight dealing range now, it
218 doesn't mean that it can't break down from here it just meant as I went into
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222 trade today's trading I didn't feel that it was going to break down about
223 because the dollar was being held in consolidation. And that would be at least
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227 for me bolster with weakness on Canadian dollar allow the dollar CAD paired the
228 rally because the dollar is the first in the in the pairs name and in Canadian
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232 dollar. So when this currency is rallying, that means Canadian is weaker
233 compared to the dollar. And since dollars being held in consolidation, and
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237 weakness in Canadian dollar will propel this particular forex pair higher. Now
238 I'm going to take you into the actual nuts and bolts of today's discussion.
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242 Okay, and here is the action based on what I saw, this is an average daily
243 range. Okay, now notice average daily range is actually the same thing as
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247 previous day's high as well. Okay, within an earshot of it. We're gonna look at
248 this price action right in here, but we had to zoom in a little bit before right
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252 now, I want you to remember the context I gave you for optimal trade entry. They
253 form At institutional price levels, they are called by many circles as
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257 psychological levels. There's nothing psychological about these things. Okay?
258 institutions use round numbers for their orders, because it makes it easy to put
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262 in large blocks of orders. That's it. Okay. That's the real reason what causes
263 the market to trade around zero levels. Okay. And that's what it is. It's
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267 20s 80s because they go beyond the big figures, 00 levels, above or below it,
268 depending on if you're bearish or bullish. And I'll explain that in a minute.
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272 And the mid figure, okay, like 127 50, that's a mid figure level. Okay. Then we
273 have 127 80, which is the next institutional price level price, then, I was
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277 looking at 127 97, because it's three pips just before the 128. Big figure.
278 Okay, so that's the reason why I wanted that price level. And secondly, we know
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282 that 120 is the big figure. And then right above that, we'll have 10 pips, which
283 is 128 10. And then 128 20. Okay, and whenever we have a big figure, my
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287 tutorials teach, and you'll see that it goes 10 to 20 pips above intraday highs,
288 and a 20, Pip sweep takes us exactly up to 120 20. That's all I'm showing you
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292 here with this triangle here, just highlighting the fact that it's a sweep above
293 the 120. Big figure. So please don't read too much into the geometry on this
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297 chart. It's not there to draw any more attention that's necessary. But I want
298 you to take a look at the kill zone, see t children, okay. And you can see I
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302 have the body on the swing low, open on this candle is the lowest of the body
303 reference points open or close, get the low and higher, low, higher low to the
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307 left and right of it. Okay, and price trading up to this swing high. And this
308 candles open is going to show up here on 2761. Okay, in price trades down from
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312 that into optimal trade entry, and this level is the minifigure level. So we
313 have an optimal trade entry occurring exactly where I taught you. They occur at
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317 a figure, okay, in a time when dollar CAD is bullish, at a time when there's a
318 kill zones in New York kill zone. Okay. And I went in, after missing the actual
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322 entry in here because the actual entry came in, right before the New York kills
323 him. So I wasn't able to get that price level. So what I'm trying to show you
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327 today is, and I've done this, in several instances throughout the last four
328 weeks or so, I'm actually not trying to give you the precision entries where
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332 you've seen me do exercises and drills where I practice and get in there. And I
333 get in exactly at the PIP, I'm actually calling the very highs and weekly lows.
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337 And you see me do it on a daily basis where I can pull them out and show you
338 where they're at within one or two pips many times, but I'm usually pretty
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342 accurate in terms of where I think it's going to occur. You do not need that, to
343 trade with consistency. That's what I'm trying to illustrate here. So there's
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347 gonna be times where you missed an entry that would be ideal. I missed it
348 because it didn't happen in the kill zone.
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352 You can see this candle Here comes in at 1045. Now that's 6:45am my time in New
353 York. So the next candle, which is what I entered in, okay, is one price is
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357 already moving away. But because we have not traded through the reference point
358 that would start the sling. Now I'm using the high for this now, not the body.
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362 This is when you want to bring in the wicks from the point in which you draw the
363 fib up to you want to find the highest high. Okay, as long as we're at that
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367 level or below it, I would be okay with getting long one. That's what makes it
368 or breaks it for me. Okay, I asked you guys on Twitter today, what would be the
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372 absolute latest time you can use for an entry? It's where your first scalping
373 profit taking level is, it's got to be at or below that. Otherwise, it's not you
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377 can't take the trade. Okay, so there's your trade filter, very simple one. But
378 I'm assuming here on a five minute basis, we'll drop out of 15 minutes. As you
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382 can see, now here, the chart looks slightly different. Okay. But you can see
383 that the levels I was trying to take my profit out here was exactly at 127 97. I
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387 wanted to get out right before the 128 big figure actually gave me the exit as
388 it ramped up into the 120 big finger. And that swept through another portion of
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392 the market was peeled off at 128 10. And then ultimately, look at the the legend
393 maker on the Fibonacci. Now I'm going to remove these level labels here cuz I'm
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395 80
396 00:14:46,590 ~-~-> 00:14:57,960
397 trying to be facetious. And if you watch the Twitter feed, everyone's asking me
398 like this one here says the showstopper and the legend maker. I did that. Just
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402 to illustrate how Retail minded traders get really excited about these labels
403 and these indicator ideas, okay? Fibonacci is just a measuring tool I use. And I
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407 use it for like, targeting, I don't use it so much for entry, I use it to teach
408 where an entry would be an ideal or optimal level. But you don't need to
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412 Fibonacci. Now I do rely on Fibonacci for profit taking, I like to see some
413 things overlap to give me confidence that that's a pretty good level. Because
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417 always upfront and honest with you, in regards to what my weaknesses as a
418 trader, it's the exits, I'm never really satisfied with my exit. So this has
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422 been a way for me to really nail down a specific criteria where it doesn't
423 change all the time. It's just wherever a fib level is, if it lines up with
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427 something else I look at from an institutional basis, which I'm not going to
428 teach publicly, then that's where I exit. Okay. And many times, I'm actually
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432 excellent before that anyway, so it is what it is. But you can see I got out
433 right before the actual highest high of the day. And legend maker Fibonacci was
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437 just shy of the actual high today. So in that case, it would have been very
438 close to calling the daily high. So it is what it is, I gave you an example of
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440 89
441 00:16:12,690 ~-~-> 00:16:22,290
442 trying to take profits. Today, I'll give you a screenshot of where this demo
443 account was rejecting my price wouldn't give me the actual high. And I was
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445 90
446 00:16:22,290 ~-~-> 00:16:29,580
447 trying to do that in here. And it wouldn't, it wouldn't let me do it. So I ended
448 up having to get out here didn't want to ride back any of this, and ultimately
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450 91
451 00:16:30,150 ~-~-> 00:16:45,090
452 allowed me to take the two final portions off, as the price rammed up into the
453 128 20 level. Now, the actual high on this day comes in at exactly 128 20. Now,
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457 for your notes, this is very, very, very important. If you ever see a swing that
458 sets up at a mid figure, I anticipate it reaching up to the 2780 level as an
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460 93
461 00:16:57,780 ~-~-> 00:17:08,310
462 objective. And if it trades through 127 at anticipated rating, the 128. Or I'm
463 saying there's no way specifically for this pair. But if you're trading, ever
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467 set up long ends up forming around the mid figure 50 level and you're bullish,
468 anticipated trading up to the next 80 level. And if it trades through 80 with
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472 energy, anticipate it running through the next 00 level. Okay. And always,
473 always anticipate some measure of 10 to 20 pips above that big figure. That's
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475 96
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477 what these institutional levels are for, if nothing psychological about it,
478 because honestly, markets don't move on psychology. Psychology is measured in
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480 97
481 00:17:39,060 ~-~-> 00:17:48,360
482 what price has done, and what traders will most likely due. But think about what
483 you most likely one of the last time last week, did you really execute on it?
484
485 98
486 00:17:48,360 ~-~-> 00:18:01,350
487 No. So Marcus don't move on psychology. Okay. They don't do that. They move on
488 real market orders. Now sentiment is a derivative of what markets do. But
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490 99
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492 sentiment and
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494 100
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496 opinions, if you will, they are not the hallmarks to consistency. I don't use
497 any thing about my trading. That's retail based. Okay, the only thing that's
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499 101
500 00:18:16,590 ~-~-> 00:18:25,440
501 resembles retail is if I have a Fibonacci on the chart, you know, right away,
502 they'll think it's Elliott Wave or something to that effect. And it's not I use
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504 102
505 00:18:25,440 ~-~-> 00:18:34,170
506 fibs for targeting. And the entry for optimal trade entry is just for you to see
507 what I'm seeing in the general area. But believe me, there's something entirely
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509 103
510 00:18:34,170 ~-~-> 00:18:42,780
511 different except for just that Fibonacci level. Okay, 60 to 70% trace level is
512 not the magic I'm looking at. Okay? The mentorship knows what I'm looking for.
513
514 104
515 00:18:42,780 ~-~-> 00:18:51,270
516 But for now, for public perspective, it is enough to suffice and accomplish the
517 means that's necessary for me to teach it to you. Okay, you can keep a fib on
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519 105
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521 your chart the rest of your career and never want to get rid of it and there's
522 nothing wrong with it. Okay, if you need that crutch to get into the trade,
523
524 106
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526 there's absolutely zero shame in having that, you know, it is what it is. Don't
527 worry about it. But that's what I was using today. And you can see pretty much
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529 107
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531 it has a real nice reaction off of that. See price had a real nice response back
532 off that 128 figure and now we've broken down again. Okay, so hopefully you
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536 found this example insightful, and until next time, I wish you good luck and
537 good trading.