ICT YT - 2017-10-11 - Pattern Recognition - Failed OTE and FOMC Mitigation Example.srt
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-11 13:23
| 1 | 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:19,290 | ICT: All right, there's gonna be FOMC, you're gonna see a mitigation on a loss. So there's a GDP and going wrong as a re entry on optimal trade entry. And I'll |
| 2 | 00:00:19,290 --> 00:00:31,560 | explain what that is, after the video is done. This portion is recorded price action. So I'm anticipating it run on yesterday's high noted with previous day's |
| 3 | 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:42,960 | high at the top. And you can see that today's intraday high is a slightly lower than yesterday's high. And I always look at that as equal highs, and retail |
| 4 | 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:52,650 | traders, or less informed traders will will view that as a double top. And usually there's going to be by stops resting just above that. And I gave you |
| 5 | 00:00:52,650 --> 00:01:05,430 | yesterday Also, my next upside objective for GBP USD or cable. And I'm certain if I was to do a poll and asked everyone, if they forgot about that, they'd |
| 6 | 00:01:05,430 --> 00:01:15,930 | probably say, Yes, I've taught you in a very short time that we've been together, there is a side of the marketplace that the market makers gonna work |
| 7 | 00:01:16,380 --> 00:01:24,330 | predominantly. And we're working on the long sides, that means previous day's highs are going to be targeted. So it's going to be around those liquidity runs. |
| 8 | 00:01:25,830 --> 00:01:38,370 | And we have a price bouncing away from the high of two days ago, which is that light blue line that's indicated where it says previous day's high two days ago. |
| 9 | 00:01:39,420 --> 00:01:52,290 | And I'm going to be looking for price to start climbing above the most recent short term high and prices now starting to expand, I just moved my stop loss to |
| 10 | 00:01:52,290 --> 00:02:03,570 | a point of no loss. It's above my entry point. So now I have an opportunity to sit in this trade. And hopefully manage it to the point where it takes out |
| 11 | 00:02:03,930 --> 00:02:14,040 | previous day's high and allows me an exit point there. So what I'm trying to do is I'm entering during the time when the market looks like it's breaking down. |
| 12 | 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:23,730 | Okay, when the market was dropping today, look at all the dark candles, the black candles, they're all down close candles. So that's showing the willingness |
| 13 | 00:02:23,730 --> 00:02:37,290 | for the market to want to go lower, and doing it quickly. Okay, so it's doing that, under the guise of reaching for sell stops trapping traders on the |
| 14 | 00:02:37,290 --> 00:02:49,770 | downside, okay, or engineering, the mindset or sentiment of retail traders or less informed traders and say it that way. And you can see we're fastly |
| 15 | 00:02:49,770 --> 00:03:01,950 | approaching the FOMC. Okay, we're about four minutes away, you see how fast this recording has been sped up. So I'm gonna be looking for the opportunity had this |
| 16 | 00:03:02,190 --> 00:03:10,800 | market move, push me up through previous day's high, and hopefully up into my limit order. And now it does that influence through the equal highs you can see |
| 17 | 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:18,960 | how price does it want to spike, it does it real quick and snappy punch right through previous day's high. And now it's pulled back. Now truth be told, I was |
| 18 | 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:28,380 | trying to get out above those equal highs, take something off there and then let my limit order trip. But I wasn't fast enough to do that cause back and forth |
| 19 | 00:03:28,380 --> 00:03:39,750 | between several screens. And long the short of it is I just didn't get it to get off there. So now I'm scaling the stop loss tighter. And I'm watching that spike |
| 20 | 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:55,020 | that we created FOMC I know they're going to probably go want to run above that. Okay, and a portions already been removed on this trade. So and you'll see that |
| 21 | 00:03:55,080 --> 00:04:09,600 | in your trade ledger, where I add all the entry points and exit points at the end of this recording of price action. So now we're above previous day's high. |
| 22 | 00:04:10,710 --> 00:04:20,130 | And now we have this squared off price action where we have a high, bumping up against the high and price never leaves that intact. It always wants to run |
| 23 | 00:04:20,130 --> 00:04:31,830 | through that put traders on the wrong side or knock those individuals out that want to be short. Remember that long wick doji that was created FOMC Steve |
| 24 | 00:04:31,830 --> 00:04:40,230 | Nielsen followers like to see that think that's a bearish pattern. So they'll sell short after trading pattern one candle. And that's not something I would |
| 25 | 00:04:40,230 --> 00:04:51,000 | advise you to do. I actually capitalize a lot on my analysis when I see things like that. Understanding what the weaker minded traders are thinking many times |
| 26 | 00:04:51,120 --> 00:05:02,940 | is a an advantageous thing when we're doing analysis. And one of the wonderful things about being a trader with 24 plus years experience, I had a lot of time |
| 27 | 00:05:03,210 --> 00:05:09,120 | being a novice. So I knew what I was thinking then. And that's how I interpret price a lot now. |
| 28 | 00:05:09,869 --> 00:05:19,559 | Okay, so I'm going to be taking something off here again, and now move my limit. To get out, notice what I did I reduce the risk with my stop, never opening it |
| 29 | 00:05:19,559 --> 00:05:28,799 | up with more. But I opened up my profit potential, when I got very close to where I wanted to get out, but it's so late in the day, I just don't want to be |
| 30 | 00:05:28,829 --> 00:05:36,869 | messing around with it. So now I'm going to show you my entry points. Here's my loss earlier in the day. And I'll actually take you into the charts after this |
| 31 | 00:05:36,869 --> 00:05:48,869 | portion is done. I'll show you what I was looking at and why it was wrong. And there it is, there's the loss, you can see that here, enter to your optimal |
| 32 | 00:05:48,869 --> 00:06:04,649 | trade entry and stop me out. And then you can see the re entry and optimal trade entry. So I'm using the same entry pattern. Got a better fill than I did on the |
| 33 | 00:06:04,649 --> 00:06:14,819 | initial entry. And here's my exit points. So let me take you to the charts. Okay, folks, I'll take you in here a little closer and show you what I was doing |
| 34 | 00:06:14,819 --> 00:06:32,909 | today. Originally, my initial entry, I was using this price swing here, okay. Right in here, and I wanted to get long as price drop down into optimal trade |
| 35 | 00:06:32,909 --> 00:06:46,979 | entry. I wanted to get long that way. So that was my entry point. And my stop loss was a little, you know, a little tight in the sense that better setups, it |
| 36 | 00:06:46,979 --> 00:06:56,369 | would have never been hit. Okay, but because I felt that we hit this high of two days ago, we hit it one time, two times three times. I didn't think we'd see it |
| 37 | 00:06:56,369 --> 00:07:08,429 | again. But they ran it one more time. And it stopped me. So it is what it is. You can see the stop is right here. So after the run through, that's okay. I'm |
| 38 | 00:07:08,429 --> 00:07:17,939 | going back in now look what's happened. I got the same price structure here in mind. And I'm entering rate at auto trade entry again, between the 62 and 72 |
| 39 | 00:07:17,969 --> 00:07:25,529 | tracing level. Now you're probably thinking, Wait a minute, Michael, this is a break in that pattern, isn't it? Yes. But it has not changed my analysis. I've |
| 40 | 00:07:25,529 --> 00:07:37,289 | still believe that we're going above previous day's high. So I entered there. And price gave me an opportunity to exit here for an FOMC announcement. And I |
| 41 | 00:07:37,289 --> 00:07:43,049 | exited up here. And I have another one in here. I don't know. I did. |
| 42 | 00:07:46,980 --> 00:07:47,790 | You think it did. |
| 43 | 00:07:51,390 --> 00:08:03,390 | And I think it's overlapping. It's so close to one another. That's what it is. But again, as I did yesterday, with the folks, I actually very close to the |
| 44 | 00:08:03,390 --> 00:08:13,740 | high. Okay. And I exited very close to the high again, you can see that really nice price action, pulling away from that. So I made the right decision. In my |
| 45 | 00:08:13,740 --> 00:08:22,650 | opinion, I think I made the right decision by collapsing the entire portion of the trade. So my loss down here that I took in this trade was completely |
| 46 | 00:08:22,650 --> 00:08:35,010 | mitigated almost with the first scaling out, and certainly with the last two portions, so it allowed me to go to a new equity high. So that's that. I gave |
| 47 | 00:08:35,010 --> 00:08:46,710 | you also a opportunity to know in advance where the banks are going to take the cable today. The upside objective was going to be okay, in case you haven't |
| 48 | 00:08:47,070 --> 00:09:00,510 | checked it out yet. This is my Twitter account. So you guys are absolutely Welcome to follow me on twitter at I underscore m underscore ICT. Okay. And I'll |
| 49 | 00:09:00,510 --> 00:09:20,220 | show you what I tweeted yesterday, about 20 hours ago. Right here and click on that. You can see this was the next objective for the table. So 132 42 as well |
| 50 | 00:09:20,220 --> 00:09:29,340 | as looking for. So with that in mind, I always want to exit before my target stuff. I'm calling this as an objective. I want to be exiting before that. Okay, |
| 51 | 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:40,680 | it's much high probability, much higher probability I should say that way to exit before a known target in your trading plan, then is to just be greedy and |
| 52 | 00:09:40,680 --> 00:09:46,920 | know that this is the best case scenario and this is perfection into demand perfection, that's always going to be problematic at least it's been problematic |
| 53 | 00:09:46,920 --> 00:10:06,690 | for me as a trader for over two decades. So I try not to be demanding and then when you see the high on today comes in at 132 37 And my exit point, were 130 to |
| 54 | 00:10:07,170 --> 00:10:18,480 | 35 was the high end 132 34. And you can see prices done a really nice movement away from that after they've unloaded like I had done today. There's been some |
| 55 | 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:30,030 | selling, okay, and you can see that's evident here. So again during the New York kill zone entry, and an accident, as the banks would do, hopefully you found |
| 56 | 00:10:30,030 --> 00:10:32,610 | this insightful until next time, wish good luck and good |