ICT Market Maker Primer Course - 12 - Understanding The ICT Judas Swing.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-10 06:21
1 00:00:10,290 --> 00:00:15,240 ICT: Hey folks, welcome back. This teaching is going to be understanding the ICT, Judas swing.
2 00:00:21,540 --> 00:00:34,380 Okay, the ICT Judas swing, what ICT concepts are going to be used in this module we'll be introducing the ICT G to swing I want to be defining what the ICT Judas
3 00:00:34,380 --> 00:00:50,400 swing actually is. Let me show you its utilization in both conditions and its utilization and bearish conditions. Okay introducing the ICT Judas swing.
4 00:00:51,510 --> 00:01:00,150 Alright, so the price swing that sets the London session higher low is many times in energetic pricing. Now it's going to many times be a run on stops or
5 00:01:00,150 --> 00:01:08,970 could be returning to a key price level. Either one can be the basis for this quick spike in price. Having a higher timeframe understanding and implementing
6 00:01:08,970 --> 00:01:20,130 the higher timeframe analysis to determine what direction the ICT Judas swing will form. If you look at the chart to the right here, I've basically added more
7 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:32,250 dimension and detail to a earlier chart in the series of teachings. Here I've added a couple different reference points that will help solidify the
8 00:01:32,250 --> 00:01:43,200 understanding that creates the daily high and low, the open the high, low and close on a daily candle. I've started your journey in my ICT concepts with the
9 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:53,880 lowest timeframe possible, which is this small little segment of price action from an intraday perspective. Because if you can understand that, as we draw out
10 00:01:53,910 --> 00:02:08,520 farther into higher timeframe analysis, you'll see that these ideas are actually fractal and they form on all timeframes. Because it's defined the ICT, Judas
11 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:21,060 swing, first and foremost, you start hunting the Judas swing at midnight, New York time. Okay, so this is the new york opening price. And it ends at 5pm New
12 00:02:21,060 --> 00:02:32,160 York time. And that's basically the entire five hour window that would be utilized for anticipating this price move. Now, I'm not suggesting that everyone
13 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:41,850 sit up all night long, waiting for this Judas swing to appear. There's some things that you would look for obviously, but I can't cover everything in one
14 00:02:41,850 --> 00:02:50,760 teaching. So I'm giving it to you in small little pieces. But for the most part between midnight New York time and 5am New York time, there's going to be a high
15 00:02:50,760 --> 00:03:00,330 or low form for the daily range. Now we understand that typically is on the basis of London high or London low forming. Now the Judas swing is a false run
16 00:03:00,330 --> 00:03:08,190 that trips up traders that lack the understanding of true direction of the day.  And this is going to come by way of higher timeframe analysis and implementing
17 00:03:08,190 --> 00:03:18,690 that in the intraday price action. Here we have an example of a Judas swing. And I'm going to now teach you the implementation of it in a bullish condition.
18 00:03:21,420 --> 00:03:32,700 Okay, so here we have the euro dollar chart. And I want you to take notice that we have the Asian range applied. We also have the midnight delineation in New
19 00:03:32,700 --> 00:03:41,970 York. I've also highlighted the opening price at midnight. So this is the new york opening price. So whenever you hear me refer to New York open price, it's
20 00:03:41,970 --> 00:03:53,340 that price. Okay, whatever the opening price is exactly at midnight, New York time. I draw that out to around 11 o'clock in the morning. And obviously we see
21 00:03:53,340 --> 00:04:04,200 the Asian range high Asian range low the premises, we would have to already arrive at an analysis that lends well to bullsh prices for euro dollar for this
22 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:16,020 particular day. If we have that assumption, and we stick to our guns, if you will, about only taking a trade based on what I'm going to suggest to you here.
23 00:04:16,410 --> 00:04:23,790 In your demo account, I think you're gonna see there's a repeating phenomenon and consistency if you apply it, it will not give you a trade every single day
24 00:04:23,820 --> 00:04:33,960 to practice with. It will give you a setup a few times a week. If you look at the majors that are coupled with $1 euro dollar cable, Aussie dollar dollar yen,
25 00:04:34,950 --> 00:04:45,720 there's four markets if you just watch those, it'll give you a wide array of potential scenarios where this type of thing forms. Now what is did you to swing
26 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:48,690 here and how is it implemented on a bullish scenario.
27 00:04:50,130 --> 00:05:01,770 We're looking for an Asian range that is in a tight consolidation. We look for initial run up the trip traders in so buy stops are hit traders are now long
28 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:12,780 when a breakout we wait for the market to trade down below the Asian range low to take the stops, anticipate some measure of a sweep 1020 pips or so. But this
29 00:05:12,780 --> 00:05:21,450 move below the opening price that shaded in here. This is actually the ICT Judas swing. Now this is a bullish Judas swing and it creates the low of the day
30 00:05:21,450 --> 00:05:32,640 inside of the London session, the London low to ends up becoming the low of the actual day. So what we look for is obviously a higher timeframe premise that we
31 00:05:32,730 --> 00:05:44,220 are anticipating bullishness or a higher close on the day and we wait, we wait for a scenario where the Asian ranges tripped by running the stops above the
32 00:05:44,220 --> 00:05:53,280 Asian range high. Okay, this is the first level of manipulation and then we anticipate a move below the opening price. Preferably we want to see a trade
33 00:05:53,280 --> 00:06:02,190 below the Asian range low. If you were to trade just below that Asian range low as an entry and use a respectable amount of pips in terms of a stop. It might
34 00:06:02,190 --> 00:06:16,830 get you into a pretty good trade below, below the Asian range low to a certain degree of support an old high qtrade to classic support resistance ideas would
35 00:06:16,830 --> 00:06:25,890 lend well here as well. But long and short, we want to see a measure of move below the opening price. See the actual drop below the opening price is a ICT
36 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:36,090 Judas swing when the markets bullish otherwise, just any little little movement below it like this one here, this would not start a nice etg to swing. The Judas
37 00:06:36,090 --> 00:06:45,780 swing is first it leads traders in on the wrong side. And then it tears lower.  going below the Asian range low and this whole move below the opening price.
38 00:06:45,990 --> 00:06:57,480 That's exactly the ICT Judas swing, my initial teaching and when I was teaching on baby pips, when I was doing videos for that community, it was right away,
39 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:06,960 snatched up by a lot of traders and said, Well, this is the Judas swing or that's a Judas swing and didn't give you the details that I'm giving you here.
40 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:15,870 Okay, so there's a specific element that has to be there. Otherwise, it's not a Judas swing. Okay? And why did I name it a Judas swing. I try to teach my
41 00:07:15,870 --> 00:07:24,630 children these concepts. And I come up with little interesting titles for certain things like order blocks, and new Judas swings and things like that. And
42 00:07:24,630 --> 00:07:35,940 it just helps me create a language for them to learn. And it's a phenomenon that makes sense because sheep herders, they would use a Judas goat and the Judas
43 00:07:35,940 --> 00:07:44,040 goat would lead the sheep into the slaughterhouse. But the Judas goat would turn away right before going into the slaughterhouse while the sheep just kept on
44 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:56,340 going on. And obviously, you know, the outcome, you get lamb chops. So that same premise is seen in price action where the introduce false breakout here but then
45 00:07:56,340 --> 00:08:07,020 the Judas goat leads price action, lower and traders that see this, they want to go short. They sell, sell, sell sell so and that's actually the wrong thing to
46 00:08:07,020 --> 00:08:18,180 be doing. That your price is going the other way after it goes below the opening price. So what we're looking for is the element of a bullish Judas swing is a
47 00:08:18,870 --> 00:08:27,540 pop above the Asian range high, then a drop below the opening price at midnight, and then below the Asian range low when that occurs. That's the actual Judas
48 00:08:27,540 --> 00:08:38,550 swing that's bullish. Now this is what it looks like without any of those elements on the price action. And you can see probably doesn't give that much
49 00:08:38,550 --> 00:08:47,160 detail to you. But again, we add it back. Let that burn in you can see it gets a whole lot more clarity as to why price is doing what it's doing.
50 00:08:53,040 --> 00:09:05,790 Okay, now we're gonna define the ICT, Judas swing for a bearish scenario. Okay, so we're looking at the dollar CAD here, very similar to what we just mentioned
51 00:09:05,910 --> 00:09:15,210 on the previous pair, the Euro dollar. Now we're gonna be looking at the dollar CAD with very similar idea. The idea going into this day was higher timeframe
52 00:09:15,210 --> 00:09:23,220 bearishness, so we anticipate a lower close based on what we anticipate from either higher timeframe daily or weekly. But for this example, again, the Asian
53 00:09:23,220 --> 00:09:33,510 range, small tight consolidation, we want to see it drop down, trip traders in right away, then run on the other side of the Asian range high. That movement
54 00:09:33,510 --> 00:09:44,910 above the opening price above the Asian range high that is the Judas swing. This is the false or trap move that I use to get in on in setups. Now that's not the
55 00:09:44,910 --> 00:09:52,170 only setup, but that's one characteristic of the setups that I use. Now, right away some of you're gonna say, well, you're holding things back, Michael, that's
56 00:09:52,170 --> 00:09:59,640 not fair. Well, that's why I have a mentorship. I don't hold anything back there. But I've given you enough here that if you look through your price
57 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:09,780 charts, Okay, even if you are not trading them live with your demo account. Look for these things in hindsight, because by printing them out and creating a study
58 00:10:09,780 --> 00:10:21,030 log of what these individual days look like, it will build a historical reference in your memory. And even though you weren't actually in these moves,
59 00:10:21,420 --> 00:10:30,840 if you are able to watch price action live, you'll start to see when it should be happening. Again, the number one premise going into this when it's bearish,
60 00:10:30,870 --> 00:10:42,600 we want to anticipate lower prices momentum lower. So that way we'll be looking for after midnight, New York time, we want to see price initially drop down
61 00:10:42,600 --> 00:10:51,900 below the Asian range low when that happens. We are set to wait and anticipate the run back above the Asian range high. When it does that and goes above the
62 00:10:51,900 --> 00:11:01,080 opening price at that moment right here on this candle. This becomes a Judas swing, because it's now leading people in on the wrong side. Why? Because we
63 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:10,380 have already arrived at a bearish tone on the marketplace. So right now is suggesting lower prices. While any rally intraday at this time of day should be
64 00:11:10,380 --> 00:11:19,380 viewed as a suspect rally or a fake move. It's going to run up here and get everybody excited notice the most energy is seen with it making the high of the
65 00:11:19,380 --> 00:11:30,510 day this is slow lethargic movement below that's typical that stopped running below the Asian range low those short holders net have been trading short now on
66 00:11:30,510 --> 00:11:40,710 a breakout their stocks gonna be reading above here 1020 pips type of scenario unfold. That's how about how far did you just swing or reach for traits the high
67 00:11:40,710 --> 00:11:51,360 the day, and then quickly moves away. That's a telltale Hallmark sign that traders have now been trapped. And any return back to it, all I'm seeing is an
68 00:11:51,360 --> 00:12:00,090 Asian range return back to the high doesn't give them an opportunity to see higher prices and didn't quickly accelerates going lower in the New York
69 00:12:00,090 --> 00:12:09,360 session. So hopefully, I've given you a little bit more detail and insight about what makes an ICT Judas swing, it really is nothing more than this, just watch
70 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:18,150 the video a few times, the elements and characteristics of it are very simple.  You want to see the manipulation first, when it's bearish below the Asian range,
71 00:12:18,150 --> 00:12:26,010 well, then climb above the opening price at midnight and then go through the Asian range high. Once it does that that's a Judas swing, you can demonstrate
72 00:12:26,010 --> 00:12:34,800 that or do some back testing and see how this works out. Many times when you have a bearish tone from a higher time perspective, this is the type of move
73 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:44,130 you'll see. Okay, and another classic sign that you're right, is if it starts to move aggressively away from that high. Because now it's already done its work.
74 00:12:44,940 --> 00:12:53,040 sheep are getting slaughtered. So hopefully, you can go through your charts and find many examples of this very thing happening. I think if you look at a large
75 00:12:53,040 --> 00:13:02,550 sampling of data, say, three or four months and pick a couple pairs, you'll see that this is in fact what actually happens in the marketplace. And it's very
76 00:13:02,550 --> 00:13:12,360 interesting to see it live. I'm never at a loss of interest when it comes to watching London setups because it's a repeating phenomenon. It's pretty classic,
77 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:20,970 it goes on and on and on in terms of consistency, but again, try not to believe that it's going to form every single day because there's not going to do that
78 00:13:20,970 --> 00:13:30,510 folks. There's gonna be times where a setup is this really loaded in your favor to see either trade lower with a lower close or a higher close when bullish. And
79 00:13:30,510 --> 00:13:38,580 this is the type of scenario we are looking for. Now, here's the takeaway from this. If you don't see this phenomenon take place, it's probably better for you
80 00:13:38,580 --> 00:13:45,960 to stay out of the marketplace because you want to be trading in the most highest probable condition. And in my opinion, if you're looking for London
81 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:51,240 setups, this is one of the best things to look for and one of the hallmarks to outstanding London sessions.
82 00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:03,930 Hopefully you've enjoyed this presentation and if you'd like to find more, you can find additional teachings at the inner circle trader.com