ICT Market Maker Primer Course - 08 - The Weekly Bias - Excellence In Short Term Trading.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-10 06:21
1 00:00:10,950 --> 00:00:16,860 ICT: Hey folks, welcome back. This teaching is going to be specifically dealing with the weekly bias excellence in short term trading.
2 00:00:23,580 --> 00:00:33,690 Okay, the weekly bias and short term trading points of focus in this module we'll be mapping bullish weekly profiles, went to anticipate weekly lows to form
3 00:00:35,010 --> 00:00:48,990 and mapping bearish weekly profiles when to anticipate weekly highs to form.  Okay, so the weekly Smart Money view as you can see here, this is a chart
4 00:00:48,990 --> 00:00:59,820 depicting one week's worth of trading. And I want you to take a look at how the market gyrates from day to day Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday,
5 00:01:00,150 --> 00:01:12,960 and this would be in a bullish scenario. Okay, this is for bullish conditions.  What we're looking for is the weekly low to form between Sunday's opening and
6 00:01:12,960 --> 00:01:27,900 Wednesday. There are high odds for the weekly load form before Wednesday's, New York open, or what would be otherwise 7am New York time. The odds further
7 00:01:27,900 --> 00:01:45,240 increase between Tuesday and Wednesday, focusing on Tuesday's London to Wednesday's New York open. So let's flesh out some more ideas about this. What
8 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:53,910 you're gonna be looking for is a hard timeframe directional bias. And that's it.  couple different ways you can do that. And I teach those in the mentorship. But
9 00:01:54,210 --> 00:02:03,390 if you'd like looking at higher timeframe charts like monthly and weekly charts, they will aid you and assist you in determining that. But this is a hourly and
10 00:02:03,390 --> 00:02:13,770 or 30 minute time frame, dealing the weekly perspective so that we can see the entire daily range over the spectrum of the entire Sundays open to Friday's
11 00:02:13,770 --> 00:02:26,490 close. What we want to be focusing on is the opening price on Sunday. Now some of you may not have a Sunday candle in your platform, and that's fine, it's
12 00:02:26,490 --> 00:02:35,760 still beneficial for you to seek out whatever the Sunday opening price is. So you can use things like websites that follow the foreign exchange markets and
13 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:45,960 get an opening price because sometimes these are being prices will create gaps from Friday's close. those gaps are very indicative of sentiment. And sometimes
14 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:56,250 they could be exhaustive, or they could be insightful in the form that it's showing underlying strength. If it gaps up, it may not feel it may not trade
15 00:02:56,250 --> 00:03:10,020 back down and fill that gap and trade higher. It may just straight away you go north right from the Empire opening on Sunday open. What we're looking for is on
16 00:03:10,020 --> 00:03:21,360 Sunday's opening, we want to see that opening price and extend that all the way to Friday. Keeping that in mind. And I'll explain why that's important in a
17 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:34,860 couple minutes. But what we're primarily looking for is a power of three formation on the weekly range. But from a 30 minute chart, which is all shown
18 00:03:34,860 --> 00:03:48,840 here. This is gonna give us the intraday reference points and it'll show you how the market moves and gyrates with this. And now, if you choose not to use
19 00:03:50,130 --> 00:04:02,070 Sunday's data, which I think is a little myopic glamour, at least talking about the relationships of the opening price, or the weekly range, because they have
20 00:04:02,070 --> 00:04:10,320 to understand that that still is there in terms of trading just because your platform may or may not have a Sunday's candle, the market did in fact, open
21 00:04:10,380 --> 00:04:21,180 many times hours before you would expect it to have shown price on your Monday candle. So it's beneficial for you to go through and research and find out the
22 00:04:21,180 --> 00:04:25,050 opening prices on your respective forex pair. That's what you're using.
23 00:04:26,940 --> 00:04:35,370 You can elect to go with the opening price on Mondays trading, but your data is going to be slightly skewed. Okay, so wherever your first opening price is on
24 00:04:35,370 --> 00:04:47,940 Monday, you can use that price and draw that across. Okay, but if it's an instance where the market starts at a lower price level on Sunday, we may not
25 00:04:47,940 --> 00:04:58,920 get the opportunity on Monday's opening price to dip down below at one we're bullish or wanting to be a buyer at the opening price or below it. Okay, so I
26 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:07,050 used to Sunday's opening price to teach new traders because it teaches them number one sentiment. It teaches them overbought, oversold without the use of
27 00:05:07,050 --> 00:05:14,610 indicators. Okay, and also teaches you to trust the higher timeframe premise, what's the monthly and weekly charts suggesting? Are they implying that we're
28 00:05:14,610 --> 00:05:26,010 gonna be moving higher or are we living lower? This example here is going to be framed on the basis that we elected by a way of analysis that the higher
29 00:05:26,010 --> 00:05:37,800 timeframe charts are looking for higher prices. So that means the price is going to expand on the open on Sunday, or shortly thereafter. And having a higher
30 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:50,430 close or at least expanding throughout the week, to make a higher price level where we can hopefully find an opportunity to harvest some pips. In terms of
31 00:05:50,430 --> 00:06:03,240 power three, what we're seeing here is the relationship day by day and what price has done with that opening price. But in terms of a weekly range, if
32 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:12,990 you're a short term trader, you can use this insight and not have to worry about day trading at all. Once you know the opening price, you got to be anticipating
33 00:06:12,990 --> 00:06:20,490 that move down below the opening Christ. Now what level you choose to buy it down there, there's lots of different ways you can do it. And I teach a lot of
34 00:06:20,490 --> 00:06:32,850 them. And it's not important for me to share with you any one particular setup, because I've learned over the years teaching that some of my concepts don't
35 00:06:32,850 --> 00:06:44,340 always gel, or more or less work for certain individuals is not because the patterns are they're not favorable in terms of how to use them in the price
36 00:06:44,340 --> 00:06:56,820 action. It's because of personality. Give me an example, to be a buyer, when the market creates a new low, that is sometimes scary for certain traders. And they
37 00:06:56,820 --> 00:07:07,260 won't want to do that. Other traders that see that and they say what makes perfect sense, they will gravitate towards that type of pattern. The ones that
38 00:07:07,260 --> 00:07:17,700 don't want to be buying below lows, that trader will probably do very well, when they do optimal trade entry buys, where it's proven, it's gone up a little bit
39 00:07:17,700 --> 00:07:27,660 and then it retraces it makes more sense for them to do that. So that's why in the free content, I'm avoiding that whole way of teaching because it gives the
40 00:07:27,690 --> 00:07:37,080 impression to the students or the first time readers or viewers of my content that I'm trying to promote you to follow a specific mode, okay, or, or press you
41 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:45,810 into a specific mode, which, as a teacher and a traitor. I know that doesn't work, you can't work, okay, it might work for some of you. But I don't want to
42 00:07:45,810 --> 00:07:58,320 make my success as a mentor, be based on just a handful of my students, I have a way of teaching where the content is there for you to plug and play for your own
43 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:05,850 personality. And I do a lot of that stuff in the mentorship. But for free content, this is all you need to work with. And you'll find all the setups
44 00:08:05,850 --> 00:08:15,360 you'll ever look for. Now we can fine tune this principle and actually give you specific levels on what you would be buying at below the opening price, both in
45 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:24,990 a day traders perspective and or a short term trader. So as a short term trader, if you've watched my content, and you've been well impressed with the ability to
46 00:08:24,990 --> 00:08:35,280 have that precise of an understanding, you can still use these same concepts by way of using the opening price and trading the weekly candle. So the weekly
47 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:42,630 range or weekly candle. They're synonymous terms, okay, but I use them in a chain interchangeably. But for the sake of weekly range, that's exactly what I'm
48 00:08:42,630 --> 00:08:46,740 talking about. Okay, so what we're forming here is this particular week's
49 00:08:47,550 --> 00:08:58,200 entire data from the low of the week to the high that week. This opening price is representative of the Sunday's opening price. We would be already bullish on
50 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:07,380 the weak. We would anticipate this movement from the open and down, we would not be interested in anything from the open to trade up first, we would look at that
51 00:09:07,380 --> 00:09:18,540 as not interesting. We would wait for it to drop down into an oversold condition. What makes it oversold because it's opening price is value. Okay,
52 00:09:18,750 --> 00:09:29,970 that's fair value at the time of new trading. At some point in the future, we would anticipate the market dropping down Okay, that drop down from the opening
53 00:09:29,970 --> 00:09:40,290 price is going to make price in terms of overbought, oversold oversold because the context or premise behind it would already be bullish relative to the
54 00:09:40,290 --> 00:09:47,820 monthly and weekly chart. So if we're expecting them weekly chart to continue higher. The new week we would expect to see the opening price drop down which is
55 00:09:47,820 --> 00:09:57,870 the Judas sling. This engineered move is to knock individuales or they're already out long or drive individuals that are not in the marketplace that want
56 00:09:57,870 --> 00:10:07,260 to sell short to entice them to do so. any pending orders that would sell in a breakout, it would be filled down on this movement here. So you as a short term
57 00:10:07,260 --> 00:10:17,070 trader, you can elect to buy at one of these levels below the opening price that Mike tutorials teach some of. But we go into great detail with that in the
58 00:10:17,070 --> 00:10:28,650 mentorship so you can frame all types of entry techniques and concepts. they reside below the opening price. Okay. Wait, we use this information from the
59 00:10:28,650 --> 00:10:37,770 free tutorial standpoint is if we know that the low of the week, from the opening price on Sunday, making a low of the week on this weekly range, it's
60 00:10:37,770 --> 00:10:49,710 going to form between Sunday's opening and Wednesdays New York open. The odds favor a greater chance of the low forming when you're bullish between the London
61 00:10:49,710 --> 00:11:01,830 setup. And the New York set up of Wednesday. So Tuesday's London setup to Wednesday's New York setup between these two time periods, I'm going to
62 00:11:02,010 --> 00:11:10,380 encourage you to go through your charts, it's really, really easy to go through hindsight data. And you'll see what I just told you is like the elephant in the
63 00:11:10,380 --> 00:11:21,150 room, retail traders until I taught this stuff publicly on my YouTube channel.  And in my tutorials, nobody was talking about this. Nobody was mentioning it, no
64 00:11:21,150 --> 00:11:27,870 one was using it. And the folks that tried to say they were always aware of it.  They showed examples in their trades. And it never wasn't there. They were doing
65 00:11:27,870 --> 00:11:37,200 the things that were opposite that what this teaching teaches. I've been doing this for two decades, okay, and only a few handful of individuals around the
66 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:49,620 world had opportunity to learn from me, you could read about 18 years ago or so.  And that small little circle individuals, they and myself have the only ones
67 00:11:49,620 --> 00:11:58,560 have been really been aware of this type of phenomenon. Now, since I made my tutorials, there's been educators and stuff they've linked on to what I teach,
68 00:11:58,560 --> 00:12:06,090 and he rename it, okay, they call it a weekly strategy. They call it, you know, whatever else they might come up with, and they add some kind of a twist in the
69 00:12:06,090 --> 00:12:15,660 title. But once you see what they're doing, it's what I've taught here, and what I've taught in my previous teaching how to capture explosive price moves, which
70 00:12:15,660 --> 00:12:23,790 is a free tutorial, which I didn't like the presentation. But if you watch that video, or look at it, the first couple minutes of that video is actually what
71 00:12:23,790 --> 00:12:34,890 I'm showing you here. So once that was produced and shared on baby pips, and that crowd watched it all there to it caught fire. Problem is, most traders
72 00:12:35,460 --> 00:12:45,840 don't know what to do with it below the opening price when we're bullish. So which level Do you buy, in this instance, is going to teach the classic market
73 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:56,760 structure bullish optimal trade entry. Okay. So you're gonna anticipate Tuesday to Wednesday's, low forming. Now, sometimes it's going to form on Monday, but
74 00:12:56,760 --> 00:13:04,950 you can still get a continuation move on Tuesday or Wednesday. But primarily, I want you to be thinking how Tuesday to Wednesday, in that time period, that's
75 00:13:04,950 --> 00:13:14,460 when the weekly load is going to form. Many times, it's going to be Tuesday's long and open. Okay? Now, if that's gone over your head, I want you to stop and
76 00:13:14,460 --> 00:13:27,210 think about what I just told you. The weekly low most likely forms on Tuesdays on an open when we're bullish. If we are bullish, and it does not form on
77 00:13:27,210 --> 00:13:38,250 Tuesday, and we drop down on Wednesday, Wednesday will probably be the low of the week. If we go lower than the low formed on Wednesdays, New York open,
78 00:13:39,539 --> 00:13:47,249 you have to Nix the trade and go to the sidelines on the day, especially if you took an opportunity on Tuesday or Wednesday and they were losing trades, you
79 00:13:47,249 --> 00:13:57,509 have to stop and just submit to the fact that you're wrong. Even if Thursday or Friday, it goes higher. And that's a very hard lesson to learn. Because you are
80 00:13:57,539 --> 00:14:07,949 bullish on the weak, but you get stopped out and it still ends up going there.  And you missed out on it. That's going to happen. It's happened to me many, many
81 00:14:07,979 --> 00:14:18,389 times. And it does not undo the effectiveness or the validity behind the setup.  There's going to be an imperfection in your trading. So you have to permit that.
82 00:14:18,419 --> 00:14:28,229 Okay. But if we're looking for the low the forum on Tuesday or Wednesday, what we're simply looking for is a new low on the week, preferably on Tuesdays on an
83 00:14:28,229 --> 00:14:39,599 open or Wednesdays New York open, okay, between these two reference points.  Should that occur? Okay, gentlemen, we have a lower low and a weak formed, we
84 00:14:39,599 --> 00:14:50,219 find the short term high prior to that new low forming in this case, it's this here. Okay, so when that occurs, that's our trigger point. So for individuals
85 00:14:50,219 --> 00:15:00,419 that want to buy on retracements with optimal trade entry, we're going to wait for price to break above this short term high which it does here. From point
86 00:15:00,419 --> 00:15:14,789 here, you're going to be looking for the low the form prior to this run up. Now, classic said people will go from this low to this high, sometimes that'll work.
87 00:15:15,269 --> 00:15:25,469 Sometimes it won't. But I want you to look at is, we have the most dynamic price movement often this low. So you're gonna anchor your fib on the lowest close or
88 00:15:25,469 --> 00:15:35,429 open in that swing low, drag it all the way up to this body here. Now, I don't have that in here cuz I want to do presentations be clean, because my watermark
89 00:15:35,459 --> 00:15:45,839 on top of the chart and my references that I'm showing you here, I want you to go through and look at this for yourself, go through your own data, the November
90 00:15:45,839 --> 00:15:58,139 21, and 22nd of 2017. Use the 30 minute chart. And you'll be able to see pulling that fib that low to this high, you get an optimal trade entry beautifully lined
91 00:15:58,169 --> 00:16:10,619 up right there. And there's a continuation by and here's the thing, you're buying it below the weekly open one Sunday, you're buying below that weekly open
92 00:16:10,739 --> 00:16:20,939 trying to do power three, one a week, this gives us the best advantage, okay to be in before the expansion that takes place on the weekly range. Because we're
93 00:16:20,939 --> 00:16:32,219 buying below evaluation that would deemed as fair. And that drops down to an oversold condition. So while everyone else would look at these movements
94 00:16:32,219 --> 00:16:41,519 dropping down here and dropping down here, as momentum on the downside, our perspective is like of the smart money, we're looking at that as it going down
95 00:16:41,519 --> 00:16:54,869 to an area of really, really cheap price. So if you're terribly afraid to step in their rate, when it breaks below to a new low, I understand that but over
96 00:16:54,869 --> 00:17:03,719 time, you're gonna have to encounter that and just move past it or just elect to go with optimal trade entry as your your pattern. And there's certainly nothing
97 00:17:03,719 --> 00:17:10,889 wrong with it. But if you're wanting to buy up here, and you're always going to wrestle with the idea, I wish I would have bought down there, this is only going
98 00:17:10,889 --> 00:17:20,939 to occur if you buy at new lows at a time when it should be creating the low the weak. And like I said, it's hard to do that without getting in there and
99 00:17:21,269 --> 00:17:28,919 desensitizing yourself by practicing practicing in a demo account, and doing it live with a demo over and over and over again, to the point where you just don't
100 00:17:28,919 --> 00:17:36,779 care if the outcome is going to be profitable or not. Because that's what it takes to be consistent, you're not worrying about the end result, you just trust
101 00:17:36,779 --> 00:17:45,749 the process of what you're doing. Eventually, over time, the sample sizes are more weighted on the positive side of what you're expecting to see than that of
102 00:17:45,749 --> 00:17:57,479 the temporary and sometimes, you know, unwanted negative results, that is missing the trade or getting stopped out. So this would be the optimal trade
103 00:17:57,479 --> 00:18:04,919 entry here. And again, it's on a day that we would look forward to form on Wednesday. And price starts to expand we get about above the opening price.
104 00:18:06,450 --> 00:18:15,420 Preferably, we want to see price show a willingness to want to expand away from the opening price and not want to come back down to it. Now, there are some
105 00:18:15,420 --> 00:18:24,930 certain caveats to this. And I'll add this to you just to give me a little bit more spice on this. If we make the Whoa, for the week on Monday. How do we know
106 00:18:24,930 --> 00:18:35,100 that it trades back above the opening price? Okay, on Monday and expands a little bit more. Okay, this right here, we dropped down and went back above the
107 00:18:35,100 --> 00:18:46,620 opening price. I don't trust this because it's Monday, and I like to see the Mondays range. Okay, I want to see what the Monday's entire daily ranges. So I
108 00:18:46,620 --> 00:18:56,970 don't I don't get the weekly loads many times capacity as is be fair about about 90% of the time. If the week makes it slow on Monday, I'm missing that because I
109 00:18:56,970 --> 00:19:05,940 elect to sit many times on the sidelines because I want to use the range of Monday to give me insights. So on Tuesday, I like to get hopefully a lower low
110 00:19:05,940 --> 00:19:14,850 when I'm bullish. And then I'll buy in here. Okay, based on some pattern or some kind of a key level I teach. And then I'll ride that out and hopefully get back
111 00:19:14,850 --> 00:19:26,220 above the opening price. Now if we trade above the opening price on say Tuesday, I will permit Wednesday the same retracement back down to the opening price,
112 00:19:26,220 --> 00:19:34,740 find some support and then rally back away on Wednesday. If we're breaking above the opening price on Wednesday, it cannot and should not come back the opening
113 00:19:34,740 --> 00:19:45,090 price. Now, again in simple terms. Wednesday is the line in the sand. If it trades above the opening price one more bullish, we do not permit it to come
114 00:19:45,090 --> 00:19:54,420 back down to the opening price. It can happen if we go above the opening price when a new low on Tuesday. We could still see it come back down and retest the
115 00:19:54,420 --> 00:20:06,120 opening price on Wednesday. The algorithm will want to expand away from this opening price After Wednesday, because it only has New York opens time period to
116 00:20:06,120 --> 00:20:14,820 Friday's close. And that's why you see this acceleration in the movement on the weekly range immediately after Wednesday breaks above the opening price. Now
117 00:20:14,850 --> 00:20:23,370 you're gonna look at this, and I'm gonna be criticized by folks that don't like what I'm teaching, because they're sold on indicators or whatever else they're
118 00:20:23,370 --> 00:20:32,850 doing. Or they don't like the fact that I'm right. They're going to say this has been cherry picked in a hindsight capacity. Well, granted, I am hand picking
119 00:20:32,850 --> 00:20:39,840 this in hindsight to show you because it's already happened. Anyone teaching you anything, there's going to be some level of hindsight, I'm telling you to go
120 00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:46,680 through your charts, and you will see this yourself as many as examples and you're going to find you're going to see quickly, what I'm telling you is the
121 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:54,120 gospel, okay, it's just the way it is. You can argue and wrestle with this. But if you trade against this premise, you're not gonna understand why you're losing
122 00:20:54,120 --> 00:21:07,500 money. Okay. So once we get through the opening price on Wednesday, and or on Tuesday or Monday, Monday, I personally will never get the low on Monday, the
123 00:21:07,500 --> 00:21:18,060 weekly low, I won't get that on Monday, you can try to test that theory and buy down here. And you might get something like this. And this could have kept on
124 00:21:18,060 --> 00:21:29,160 going. If you're going to trade on Monday, if it trades back to the opening price, my opinion is to take some profits there and leave a stop in. So that
125 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:39,540 way, if it does not yet it protects any open profits. But leave it in there because you might have caught the tiger by the tail. Statistically studying all
126 00:21:39,540 --> 00:21:49,530 the possible scenarios and weekly protocols that I teach, I elected to simply wait till Tuesday. In essence, the way I do it, obviously, I'm not encouraging
127 00:21:49,530 --> 00:21:57,270 you to follow me step by step, but I'm dealing in telling you this because I want to be open about how I do it.
128 00:21:58,650 --> 00:22:07,560 Tuesday, I'm really actively looking at London open. Okay, that's really what I'm looking for. So between London open on Tuesday, and Sunday is opening, I'm
129 00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:17,070 really not doing much at all, just relaxing and spending family time, glanced at the charts, but I'm not really trying to actively pursue anything until around
130 00:22:17,070 --> 00:22:25,470 London open on Tuesday. And if you look at the weekly ranges on the foreign currency pairs, you'll see that many times when we are in the bullish or
131 00:22:25,470 --> 00:22:34,230 bearish, these turning points will form on Tuesdays on an open. But for this example, here we're bullish, and we're looking into opening price on Sunday, we
132 00:22:34,230 --> 00:22:43,110 want to see a drop down, it trades down to a level we wait for it to break a swing high. Okay, and this could have easily formed on Monday. And the
133 00:22:43,110 --> 00:22:49,410 retracement could have been occurring on Tuesday like it is here on Wednesday, and then Tuesday could have traded to the opening price. And we could still
134 00:22:49,410 --> 00:22:57,300 permit it to come back down to that Wednesday retest of the weekly open. But after that it's not allowed to do it again. If it ever starts to gravitate back
135 00:22:57,300 --> 00:23:04,530 down to that opening price after Wednesday trading through it, it's probably made a reversal or it's gonna consolidate for the rest of the week. Either one's
136 00:23:04,530 --> 00:23:12,900 not good for a weekly expansion. Now there's gonna be times where we'll trade above the opening price on a weekly range and not go very far and just gravitate
137 00:23:12,900 --> 00:23:21,840 right back the opening price and it's going to be a quiet mixed week. If it still bores the following week would still use the same criteria. Okay, but the
138 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:32,910 next stage would be we expecting that expansion here. Now this portion of the weekly range is going to be what you're holding for an event saying so Friday's
139 00:23:32,910 --> 00:23:44,520 close your mindset should be not trying to find 10 pips or give me 20 pips.  Okay, I start my week off looking for scenarios that get me in down below the
140 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:53,700 opening price because I understand that below the opening price is the ideal entry point for all my day trades and my short term trading as a short term to
141 00:23:53,700 --> 00:24:02,640 swing trader you can use that insight using the weekly ranges and not require yourself to be anywhere near an hourly or four hour chart or anything less than
142 00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:10,080 that. So there's no reason for folks that watch my my my videos and I'll say well you know I'm not a day trader I can't use this information it's interesting
143 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:21,150 ICT but I can't do that you have no excuse because of this gave you a bazooka.  Okay. And it gave you the ability to go in here and short term or swing trade
144 00:24:21,390 --> 00:24:29,970 using the opening price on Sunday. Okay, wait for it to drop down and simply go on and handle it. Now. I will toss this out there and you guys can test this
145 00:24:29,970 --> 00:24:42,420 theory on your own. Okay. If at any time you are bullish on a weekly range, if the opening price and we drop down, say 30 pips, okay, if we drop 30 pips from
146 00:24:42,420 --> 00:24:53,790 the opening price on Sunday, test this theory out if you're bullish by 30 pips below the opening price on Sunday, and use 150 pips stop. This is for swing
147 00:24:53,790 --> 00:25:05,580 traders, not short term traders. Okay, and let that go and see if you don't get 150 to 300 pips test that theory and give me your feedback through Twitter. We
148 00:25:05,580 --> 00:25:14,340 try this on any pair, really any kind of market really but for forex, I'm going to give you that suggestion. Now it does not mean that you won't see it drop
149 00:25:14,340 --> 00:25:26,670 down sometimes 50 to 75 pips, okay, but generally, your stop loss of 150 pips after buying below the opening by 30 pips, what you're really doing is you're
150 00:25:26,670 --> 00:25:35,730 saying, I don't believe it's gonna go down 180 pips from the opening price. If it's truly bullish, it won't spend a whole lot of time below the opening price.
151 00:25:36,210 --> 00:25:45,030 And it won't go that far down below it unless we are changing long term in a reversal from a bearish market to a bullish market. And then we can see some
152 00:25:45,060 --> 00:25:53,340 really wild reaches below the opening price which I don't look for those anyway, I want to be looking at a marketplace It's already in position to be moving. It
153 00:25:53,340 --> 00:26:03,030 has been moving for a while longer term. And I'm just getting in positioning myself in a logical area where the next upside is clearly an expansion for
154 00:26:03,030 --> 00:26:16,920 bullish up close for Friday. Okay, the weekly Smart Money view for bearish conditions. Okay, you can see here, we have the same thing just reversed. We're
155 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:27,510 looking for the weekly high to form between Sunday and Wednesday. High odds between Wednesday's New York open 7am from Sunday's opening, that's what we're
156 00:26:27,510 --> 00:26:38,460 looking for. But the odds further increase again between Tuesdays and Wednesdays trading specifically focusing on Tuesdays London open to Wednesday's New York
157 00:26:38,460 --> 00:26:52,230 open. Okay, so we're looking at the weekly range here for this particular currency. This happens to be $1 CAD. And you can see how price did in fact, have
158 00:26:52,260 --> 00:26:58,470 a up movement on Monday. And then we had another movement up on Tuesday, creating the high the week
159 00:26:58,950 --> 00:27:13,680 during the London session, or what we were looking for for the scenario overall.  We're anticipating bearish week ahead of the open once that opening price is
160 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:27,150 derived on Sunday, we extend that through the entire week until Friday's close movements above the opening price, we anticipate that we want to see price go to
161 00:27:27,150 --> 00:27:38,970 a level that would push price into a technically overbought condition. There is no overbought indicator on my chart. I'm reading price action, the fact that
162 00:27:38,970 --> 00:27:48,630 we're trading above the opening price in a market environment that's bearish longer term. That's what frames my idea of high of The Week forms on Tuesday,
163 00:27:48,870 --> 00:27:57,390 Wednesday, we barely have any type of movement whatsoever, we still have a little blip on the radar, as price runs back above that opening price. And then
164 00:27:57,390 --> 00:28:09,150 quickly rejects notice that once it leaves that opening price on Wednesday, it doesn't try to go back to it now does retrace here, but it's not getting close
165 00:28:09,150 --> 00:28:19,950 to it. If it does, it's going to be next week. We don't want to be a part of that. Okay. Yeah, ultimately, price comes down, fails at this old low. And then
166 00:28:19,950 --> 00:28:30,120 we see a reversal that's outside the scope of the focus. The point we're looking for is we want to be when we're bearish, we're looking to sell short one, or at
167 00:28:30,120 --> 00:28:43,380 very close to the weekly high in writing that down to some measure of expansion below that weekly opening price. So in terms of the weekly range, or weekly
168 00:28:43,380 --> 00:28:54,690 candle, what we're looking at is the opening price here. Then we're seeing the Judas swing. This is the portion of price action that we're anticipating. We
169 00:28:54,690 --> 00:29:04,650 anticipate this type of price action. And we want to have a level in mind before it starts to even trade up where we're wanting to sell short. In this example, a
170 00:29:04,650 --> 00:29:13,920 real good example would be we have a high here and Monday's high. So we have relatively equal highs. Price stabs above this. You could be a seller here and I
171 00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:23,850 did in fact take this trade and I shared it on Twitter. You guys can see that go through my Twitter feed. Look at the date for around November 21 22nd. I would
172 00:29:23,850 --> 00:29:34,980 have shown the example and I my entry points and everything's in there. sell short with the expectation that there's going to be a sell off on the dollar CAD
173 00:29:35,430 --> 00:29:50,700 price sells off goes below the opening price. Now remember what I said. As long as it is before Wednesday's New York open, it's permissible to see price trade
174 00:29:50,700 --> 00:30:00,300 back to in this case above European price because on Wednesday, that's when it should leave the gate. Once it starts leaving that opening price is He's going
175 00:30:00,300 --> 00:30:09,060 to expand to reach for some measure of price action that creates the movement below the opening price. So the range expansion portion of the weekly range,
176 00:30:09,090 --> 00:30:18,390 that's what you're holding for, but you want to be positioned up here, while price is going up. When it's long term bearish, it feels scary, it feels odd, it
177 00:30:18,390 --> 00:30:28,050 feels out of place. Because you're watching price shoot up like this. And every retail minded trader out there, and every person that's on Twitter and Facebook,
178 00:30:28,230 --> 00:30:36,120 they're gonna be looking at this thing saying it's going to the moon. And it's not, it's a southbound train. Once this thing leaves the station, which is the
179 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:46,200 opening price on Wednesdays New York open, draw that line on your chart. Once that occurs, it should always try to expand a way for an opening price, you
180 00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:55,770 should have a pre determined level where you're going to be getting out at inside of this expansion. Okay. In this case, we have relatively equal lows here
181 00:30:55,770 --> 00:31:07,590 we have a low here, we have a low here. So if we go about 10 to 20 cuts below that, that would give us around 2695 and that's 2695 right here. That gets us to
182 00:31:07,590 --> 00:31:16,080 this price point here it goes a little bit lower, but then ultimately comes back with a deep retracement and encloses ended a week, giving us the weekly candle
183 00:31:16,110 --> 00:31:29,580 or range profile like this. The ideal scenario is to look for a sell above the opening price. As a day trader, you could be focusing in on that and or as a
184 00:31:29,580 --> 00:31:39,600 short term trader or swing trader. You can use the weekly candle or weekly range to trade entirely off of that and not even look at an intraday chart, not even a
185 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:50,700 daily chart. You can take these types of trades and again, look for that same scenario. Wait for the trade about 30 pips above the opening price. Okay, in
186 00:31:50,700 --> 00:31:56,880 this case here we opened around here, we can go up 10 2030 pips, so you could be a seller
187 00:31:57,089 --> 00:32:13,859 around 2005 and a stop loss of 150 points more pips. Okay, and try to get 150 to 300 pips profit from that by selling at 128 or five or thereabouts. price goes
188 00:32:13,859 --> 00:32:27,329 all the way down to a low of approximately 2675 I gave you this example to see and show you how even using the objective of 150 pips to 300 pips, you may not
189 00:32:27,329 --> 00:32:39,059 get that actually in your profit, which is why I teach to take partial profits.  So if we sold short hypothetically at 120 805 or whatever 30 pips would be above
190 00:32:39,059 --> 00:32:49,259 that opening price if we sold there with the expectation that we're gonna try to capture 150 pips or more soon as you made 100 pips, why wouldn't you want a bank
191 00:32:49,259 --> 00:33:00,119 they're seeing that we're probably only gonna make about 130 pips on this move 100 PIP movement, anytime your moves, ever trade at 100 PIP intervals, you have
192 00:33:00,119 --> 00:33:09,659 to take something off, learn to do that, if you do not do that, I promise you you will look back and regret not having done so. So as a day trader, you know,
193 00:33:10,199 --> 00:33:16,409 obviously if it was on our pips, you certainly wouldn't be backing 80% of your position. And if you're short term trader, you want to be at least half your
194 00:33:16,409 --> 00:33:26,759 position out because the weekly can change gears midweek. For instance, it could have went down to this low here in Adobe back up and taken out the Tuesday high,
195 00:33:27,089 --> 00:33:37,259 those occurrences can happen. So if it's offered up 100 pips, take something off at 100 pips, regardless of what style or what type of interval of trader you
196 00:33:37,259 --> 00:33:48,479 are, if it gives you 100 pips, pay yourself on those 100 pips, even if it's 1/10 of your position overall, do it, because number one, it'll feel good to do. So.
197 00:33:49,079 --> 00:34:00,839 it'll pay you for your time, and the risk that you put in, and it teaches you the value of doing overtime. The folks that say that partial profits are stupid,
198 00:34:00,839 --> 00:34:07,829 they're idiotic, you shouldn't do it, because the fall risk was what it was the beginning, the risk is going to change. Preferably, it's going to reduce over
199 00:34:07,829 --> 00:34:19,289 the life of the trade anyway. But that same initial risk does not guarantee for profit, the assumptions that you did just because you put a specific number of
200 00:34:19,769 --> 00:34:27,359 risk percentage on at the beginning of trade, and it's stupid to take partial profits because you risk this much, but you don't How many times have your
201 00:34:27,359 --> 00:34:36,719 trades gone to full profit? How many times have you failed to take something off if you just want to take in something before it turned back on you. That's what
202 00:34:36,929 --> 00:34:48,149 I've been doing for 25 years, folks. Okay, 25 years. I've seen enough of this to know, partial pays. Okay, it pays. You have to give yourself the ability to take
203 00:34:48,149 --> 00:34:55,319 something out because the market is not going to do it for you. You have to take it out. So if you're gonna be a short term or swing trader, you want to use the
204 00:34:55,319 --> 00:35:05,369 weekly range like this. If we expand 100 pips, we're looking for 150 Two to 300 pips for the week, you're not always going to get 300 pips. but preferably if
205 00:35:05,369 --> 00:35:16,079 we're bearish in this case, we want to see hopefully a big weekly range.  Remember this small range big range bound on what we're starting to see small
206 00:35:16,079 --> 00:35:26,009 weekly ranges right ahead of this, and we still bearish. If we get this scenario here, we can do very, very well. You can see those big 300 sometimes even 500
207 00:35:26,009 --> 00:35:35,939 PIP ranges on a weekly. So let's see if there's gonna be a lot of news, a lot of things that are happening, you know, economic calendar, it can be extremely
208 00:35:36,059 --> 00:35:47,069 volatile, and it creates a large range on the weekly. So the model is we look for if you're a short term swing trader that can't be in the intraday stuff. You
209 00:35:47,069 --> 00:35:53,999 can sell short above the opening price about 30 pips now you can fancy dance that you can say, Well, I want to be a seller at 40 pips above the opening price
210 00:35:53,999 --> 00:36:03,329 or aka, I think trades up 50 pips above the opening price. I could be a seller there, okay, and look for 150 pips to 300 pips, again with the expectation and
211 00:36:03,329 --> 00:36:11,309 you're not always going to get 300 pips, but it allows you to make 100 pips when you take your first partial off, and then put your stop at breakeven, you're in
212 00:36:11,309 --> 00:36:20,849 a beautiful position, because if you take say, half your position off at 100 pips, put your stop at breakeven, and then see if it gives you any more movement
213 00:36:21,209 --> 00:36:32,189 for the rest of the week. Once the examples come by looking at hindsight data and seeing what's available, you will quickly see whether this is for you or
214 00:36:32,189 --> 00:36:41,129 not. I'm not trying to twist your arm I'm just giving those individuals that don't have the ability to sit in here every single day watching intraday price
215 00:36:41,129 --> 00:36:53,819 action, a way they use this information on a higher timeframe and allow them to participate. Now if you are able to look at the market Tuesday or Wednesday, and
216 00:36:53,819 --> 00:36:57,479 you only have to do it on those days around Tuesdays,
217 00:36:58,860 --> 00:37:09,150 London open and Wednesdays London open. If you watch those specific time points, you can look at specific levels in price action that I teach in my tutorials and
218 00:37:09,180 --> 00:37:20,280 go into great detail with mentorship. You can sell at a more favorable entry point. And you won't have to say okay, well here's the opening price on Sunday.
219 00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:27,600 I'm going to take a set number of pips above the opening price all the time and sell short there when I'm bearish. You can avoid that okay, and you can say
220 00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:34,380 okay, what are the opening here? Okay, I'm going to watch and see what Monday does Monday is dilly dallying around creates a Monday high here and we start
221 00:37:34,380 --> 00:37:43,230 trading here. We start to drop down ahead of one we're not interested in that.  We're looking for this high in this high here. Double tops. Okay, what's gonna
222 00:37:43,230 --> 00:37:53,610 be rescue above that bizstats so if you know that, going ahead of Tuesday's I'm an open you could just simply do a sell limit order right above the high on
223 00:37:53,610 --> 00:38:05,760 Friday or a high on Monday and then you can really reduce the amount of exposure you have it and still have that same 150 pips profit objective. Hopefully the
224 00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:13,050 enjoyed this presentation. If you'd like these lessons, you want to find out more, you can visit my website at the inner circle trader.com