ICT YT - 2018-12-14 - Bitcoin Technical Talk - PG13.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-12-22 07:37
1 00:00:36,750 --> 00:00:49,320 ICT: Okay, folks, we're looking at the Bitcoin market. And I got a ton of emails, because I'm taking a hiatus from Twitter, to give me an opportunity to
2 00:00:49,320 --> 00:01:04,860 sit with you for a moment and discuss the Bitcoin market, obviously, are a short distance away from the 20 K level. Before I go into this, if you're new to this
3 00:01:04,860 --> 00:01:19,440 channel, it would be best if you went to Twitter and scroll through. back before we had this run up in here. I had discussed a lot of the movements here on the
4 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:36,720 outside, I call 20,000. Right before 20,019 719 eight, I said that we would not see 20,000 we would do to 6000 5000 3020 500. And recently, I've said that we
5 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:49,080 would see Bitcoin $100. And I've obviously ruffled some feathers with this call. But essentially, what I'm stating is that all of this price action back here.
6 00:01:50,610 --> 00:02:09,450 Okay, we're gonna go below all that. This is all mania, which is typical, like a penny stock euphoria, it's just total absolute meaning. Now, again, I do not
7 00:02:09,450 --> 00:02:21,990 know very much about the crypto industry. I'm a pure technical trader, I don't look at anything from a fundamental scale, unless it's a commodity, or stock.
8 00:02:22,470 --> 00:02:33,930 And Bitcoin is neither. So therefore, I trust my read on price action. And I'll leave it to you whether or not I was right about all the turns in Bitcoin over
9 00:02:33,930 --> 00:02:50,070 the last year and a half or so. So let's move into a tighter view. on Bitcoin. If I'm going a little too slow for you, obviously, but YouTube has a function,
10 00:02:50,070 --> 00:03:01,260 we can speed up the audio. And I found that you can get through my videos pretty quickly around one and a half times 1.75. And he really into it, you can do two
11 00:03:01,260 --> 00:03:13,440 times record speed. So please don't give me the comments, I talk too slow, because I really don't give a shit. So there is a hope for this being support
12 00:03:14,220 --> 00:03:26,250 here. And we talked about how price was going to hang around that 6400 level. And it did that for several months, we consolidated inside of a range that was
13 00:03:26,340 --> 00:03:38,970 defined on my Twitter feed. And then right after we saw a run up, which was this one right in here. I said it was it was free to trade lower from that point on.
14 00:03:39,030 --> 00:03:50,040 And we did a little bit of consolidation around that 6400 again, and finally it snapped lower. Every level of distribution very cleanly referred to on Twitter,
15 00:03:51,000 --> 00:04:00,990 we've been focusing on one side of the marketplace for Bitcoin. Now, I don't actively trade this, I just talk about it because my students are enamored by
16 00:04:01,020 --> 00:04:14,130 crypto and you for the lack of a better word. I'm a noob when it comes to crypto as a whole, but from a technical standpoint. Like I said, I think I'm pretty
17 00:04:14,130 --> 00:04:23,490 much a dead ringer on all the moves that's happened in it because I understand the delivery of price. And there's a lot of folks that will state that new
18 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:36,510 crypto is the new thing. Okay, so all the old stuff goes out the window. No, it's not. It's the same stuff. And the things that make a market are going to be
19 00:04:36,510 --> 00:04:57,600 used in anything that trades it's the same rulebook. It's the same ammo, if you will. So with that in mind, I've brought a lot of folks to the 3000 level. Okay,
20 00:04:57,600 --> 00:05:04,620 and I'm just going to go over some of the things as to what led to this.
21 00:05:06,390 --> 00:05:19,260 And what I think may transpire going forward, that leads us to only what 240 to 245 points away from it. So it's hanging around in here building, in my mind, a
22 00:05:19,260 --> 00:05:29,280 hope scenario. I don't think we'll even see a bounce in here. Because this one, just give up the ghost and go lower. Now, below 3000 got 2500. I like that
23 00:05:29,280 --> 00:05:39,660 level. I said this several months ago that I think 2500 could give a bounce. Now when I say bounce, we're not going to 10,000 Okay, but I'm going to 8000 I don't
24 00:05:39,660 --> 00:05:53,610 even think we'll probably see a run above six. And the reason why is there gonna be a lot of short covering a lot of traders that have joined the bandwagon in
25 00:05:53,610 --> 00:06:03,240 crypto, but on the bear side, I stated that once they put this market on a futures market, and put a futures contract against it, the banks would kill it.
26 00:06:03,990 --> 00:06:15,690 And here we are. So I don't want to hear arguments about you know, this that no thing and it's going to be the future. I don't care personally, when it's going
27 00:06:15,690 --> 00:06:27,540 to be in the future. My only concern and interest in it is how is it trading? there? There's a lot of companies out there that have very, very low valuations
28 00:06:27,540 --> 00:06:38,430 in terms of what they are priced as a market. You technically trading it, but they're worth tons and tons of billions, you know, and it's not, it's not
29 00:06:38,430 --> 00:06:48,150 important. That's but that way to weigh those things out. Because if crypto is going to be the future, we're still in the infancy of it. And I don't think
30 00:06:48,150 --> 00:06:57,450 Bitcoin is going to be the one thing that you know, remains, I think ultimately it will be phased out. And something will be put in its place that's going to
31 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:08,310 garner the trust, if you will, of traders that have lost their trust in it, because I have family members that have lost money in this how Bitcoin and
32 00:07:08,310 --> 00:07:19,530 crypto is gonna replace all of fiat currency and is new, we're gonna upset the establishment, and I'm gonna display the value that's not happening. Okay, so
33 00:07:20,580 --> 00:07:27,060 the world is ran by these banks, and you're not going to unsettle them. And you're just not going to sit down one day and say, I'm going to create my own
34 00:07:27,060 --> 00:07:36,990 currency, it's going to replace all the world currencies, it doesn't work like that. Okay. Every war around this world, okay, is ran and start in funded by
35 00:07:37,020 --> 00:07:50,940 banks. And if you don't understand that you dig deeper into history and get to the facts. So these same entities are in operation on all levels of asset class,
36 00:07:51,690 --> 00:08:07,200 you really think you really think that crypto is going to be that knight in shining armor? I'm going to side with the big banks, because they have all the
37 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:21,630 military. They have all the influence, and they have the money. The real money, the digital stuff that new is referred to in crypto. This past year has done
38 00:08:21,630 --> 00:08:36,000 more damage to the element of trust and visibility for the industry that is quote unquote, crypto. Everyone was talking about getting rich. Everyone's gonna
39 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:47,250 be driving around New Lamborghinis. Well, it's December 12 2018. It's the 14th of December. Where's all the Lamborghinis? Where's all that Bitcoin millionaires
40 00:08:47,250 --> 00:09:00,600 that we're buying and holding? You know, I often ask those individuals that come at me on social media. Where's those riches? Now and, you know, invariably,
41 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:07,920 they're gonna say, well, they sold out here, they got this, they got that. And that might be true. But they're still selling that hole. by me. It's going to
42 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:17,400 the moon, it's going to be 150,000 Bitcoin, whatever. Okay, I'm not here to kick sand into people that have bought into that bullshit and lost their money. I'm
43 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:29,490 actually trying to remind you that I told you not to do those things and expected to go lower. And here we are. So if we look at a recent post I did on
44 00:09:29,490 --> 00:09:35,340 Twitter, if you go over to my Twitter feed, I gave an example
45 00:09:35,370 --> 00:09:48,060 of what I felt was going to be indicative of a run on stops, and then a future decline. If you look at what price has been doing. It obviously isn't
46 00:09:48,060 --> 00:09:56,280 consolidation, which is typical right before another move lower. There's accumulation of orders that are happening in here, regardless of it being crypto
47 00:09:56,280 --> 00:10:08,550 or not. There's a lot of noobs that have entered the market. Good place as a quote unquote trader using crypto. And maybe they saw a run up a year ago and it
48 00:10:08,550 --> 00:10:18,540 makes them feel like they're, they're informed and or plugged in as to what the markets going to do. And you see these guys on social media, they're the
49 00:10:18,540 --> 00:10:32,520 godfather of technical analysis, whatever, but they do not have faith in underlying market making concepts and reason why they don't know them. If we
50 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:44,580 know that the likelihood is a devaluation on this currency, which is currently and has been for, over a year now been underway for all the cryptocurrencies,
51 00:10:44,850 --> 00:10:57,240 specifically Bitcoin. Now only I'll keep my conversation germane to this specific crypto, Bitcoin only, all the other ones, they're all in the same boat,
52 00:10:57,240 --> 00:11:06,480 if you want to call it that. I've already said ripples going lower. I like 15 cents on ripple, I think it's going to go there and just dash all the hopes of
53 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:15,540 all those people that were swearing by God, it's going to be in the next bastion of new enterprise. I don't see it and believe it in, you know, I don't have any
54 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:28,380 skin in the race. What's important about that is I'm objective. I'm not holding something with an emotional commitment to it. I don't have hopes that I'm going
55 00:11:28,380 --> 00:11:38,040 to make money out of it. And I don't care if I'm wrong. But everything I've said, with the exception of one call made in August, I've been right about. So
56 00:11:39,270 --> 00:11:44,610 does that mean follow everything I'm telling you? And believe me, No, I don't want you to believe me, I want you to be a skeptic, I want you to go through
57 00:11:44,610 --> 00:11:51,300 everything I'm stating here and test and seeing way if what I'm saying is, in fact, the truth and go back on my Twitter feed and see what I've said was, in
58 00:11:51,300 --> 00:11:59,160 fact, what happened. That's all I'm asking you to do, actually, you can do nothing, you can just turn this video off as as a bunch of shit. And go about
59 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:08,730 your way. And that's fine, too. I'm not talking to you, I'm talking to you in his will that asked me to do this. So when I look for price action, to give me
60 00:12:08,730 --> 00:12:23,040 signatures that it's going to do one or another scenario, if if I have a an Outlook or template in mind, because I have several templates that I use that
61 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:38,460 the market generally will follow. It's taught my mentorship. But the if you look at this old low here, now obviously we've seen it trade to here and hope is
62 00:12:38,490 --> 00:12:48,570 traditional support resistance theory is what we bounced here before, and now he traded here. So now it should go higher. That's not happening. Okay, it's going
63 00:12:48,570 --> 00:12:57,360 to go lower the overall consolidation in here, what I like to look for is what was the move prior to the consolidation. And obviously, without having to go to
64 00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:09,540 the left of the chart, we know what's been going lower. I look for ideal scenarios to support a retail minded perspective, that means I'm looking for
65 00:13:09,540 --> 00:13:22,650 reasons to see where street money or less informed traders will look to take trades in the opposite direction. Because the narrative that's going to be sold
66 00:13:22,650 --> 00:13:34,170 to them is that this thing's going higher. Because the the myth is that it's going to go to the moon eventually. Well, I don't know about that. But
67 00:13:34,170 --> 00:13:45,240 nonetheless, here's a supposedly bullish trendline. Okay, we seen one move here. We found some would be support almost didn't get down to it found a little bit
68 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:56,490 support here and rolled through. Now I tweeted the chart on the 12th of December, stating that if I ran price on Bitcoin, okay, if I was taking the role
69 00:13:56,520 --> 00:14:08,880 of a market maker for Bitcoin, I would give the scenario where they would show a break in the support, supposedly, of diagonal trend line support, which I have
70 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:20,430 no faith in, I think it's all horseshit. It's too, too subjective. And there's so many lines that you can draw in there. It's, it's foolishness, okay, I mean,
71 00:14:20,430 --> 00:14:26,490 I knew 15,000 people don't come at me with Well, here, let me just realize where I made money, that's fine. But that's going to be an aberration. It's going to
72 00:14:26,490 --> 00:14:34,620 be one of those times where that's why the textbooks exist. Okay? There's going to be a few examples of this, but I don't have faith in it personally, because
73 00:14:34,620 --> 00:14:35,790 the things I trade with,
74 00:14:36,150 --> 00:14:49,260 or event rather objective. They're very succinct. They're very direct. Okay, they're not gray areas to model with. It doesn't have, well, it could be this it
75 00:14:49,260 --> 00:14:59,280 could be that it's, it's this, okay. And one of the things that I like looking for is they give these little bounces off of these supposedly lines, okay, and
76 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:08,160 it paints a narrative. In the retail minded trader, they think this is support. So if they're going to be buying in here, where's their stop loss going to be
77 00:15:08,820 --> 00:15:19,350 right below the most recent low? Well, that's what I was showing in my diagram, run below it. So it kills the buys immediately, and then gives a false hope that
78 00:15:19,350 --> 00:15:28,680 it wants to go higher by breaking above, but what it's really targeting is this little area right in here shot clean, that is, you'll smooth. Anytime you see a
79 00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:40,680 level of price action where the tops of the candles are very uniform. That is going to be a trap. Okay, this is market making 101 this is exactly where the
80 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:51,420 markets going to go. That's exactly what you see my chart, a little hand drawn. If I controlled and ran price on Bitcoin, this whole move right here was that
81 00:15:51,420 --> 00:16:01,290 very moment. As price trades to this, I don't view that as a breakout to the upside, I don't see that as a continuation on the upside. If you look at all the
82 00:16:01,290 --> 00:16:11,820 Twitter heroes, they're all excited at this point. Okay, prior to me doing my December 12, post about what I thought was going to happen. There's a lot of
83 00:16:11,820 --> 00:16:20,700 people that argued this point, but the ones that trust me, they'll more or less expected something this basically the same thing because of what I teach or run
84 00:16:20,700 --> 00:16:33,300 on stops. What makes this powerful is we're looking for the underlying direction. Okay, and this is not to do income specific trend lines, just
85 00:16:33,870 --> 00:16:43,920 reminding us that the overall institutional order flow on this asset, if you want to call it that is bearish. Banks are selling the shit out of this, okay,
86 00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:51,750 they're killing it, whether you want to accept it or not, you can be fanboys for the rest of your life. I'm just telling you the cold hard truth. Soon as they
87 00:16:51,750 --> 00:17:01,170 put it on the futures market, I told everyone, it's dead, they're going to kill it. And that's exactly what they've done. Now, argue with me all you want go on
88 00:17:01,170 --> 00:17:12,960 social media and get all the stupid shit that you want to post about whatever you think it isn't changing the facts, Bitcoin is going lower. So what I do is I
89 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:23,040 draw up levels that I think are going to be probable in terms of downside objectives. Now, it doesn't mean it's going to stop at these levels. It's not to
90 00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:36,360 support a buying point. Okay. And that's the other thing I want to talk about. When I go over things, I don't do like an A or B scenario, and come back to
91 00:17:36,360 --> 00:17:44,940 later on and see how smart I was because b didn't pan out a did. I only stick to one narrative, in the narrative I talked about is the one that the market does.
92 00:17:45,780 --> 00:17:54,270 I don't look for outs, I don't do any kind of, well, here's Plan B, if it doesn't work that way, so that way I say face and build cloud on social media, I
93 00:17:54,270 --> 00:18:06,210 only call one direction. That's it, I call one direction I call a specific target. That's it, and my shit pans out. I don't know why anybody would sit
94 00:18:06,210 --> 00:18:13,650 there and listen to someone that has all these squiggly lines. And if it does this, it's going to go up here, if it does this, it's gonna go down here. There
95 00:18:13,650 --> 00:18:23,400 is a lot of that shit on Twitter. And to me, you're better off not looking at that. Because really what it's doing is it's giving you something entirely
96 00:18:23,940 --> 00:18:31,140 different to look at. And neither one of them are building an idea in your mind of what you should do. In fact, you probably are looking at that chart or that
97 00:18:31,140 --> 00:18:40,110 person on social media with a preconceived idea about what you think is going to happen. And guess what, they've now introduced two other scenarios that you
98 00:18:40,110 --> 00:18:50,070 didn't expect, and neither one are likely to pan out. So now you have three ideal scenarios, right? They're all ideal, the original one you thought of. And
99 00:18:50,070 --> 00:19:03,450 the two other ones that this schmuck on Twitter wants to promote as theory. You're doing it wrong. And I'm not saying Follow me. I'm just stating that if
100 00:19:03,450 --> 00:19:13,920 you're going to be a trader, if you're going to be developing, looking for other people's ideas or support around an idea that you may or may not have is
101 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:24,660 actually going to be detrimental to your development. All I stated on Twitter as it relates to crypto is it's going lower and I'll give you reasons why and when
102 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:25,530 it should do it.
103 00:19:26,220 --> 00:19:36,330 Not if it does this, I'm gonna buy it. I've never said I'm buying. I'm buying Bitcoin I've remained bearish have never said those types of things, except for
104 00:19:36,330 --> 00:19:47,370 one call in August. I suggested it could rally up if it did one thing but then in that scenario, I didn't say but if it doesn't go up, I'm going to do this.
105 00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:56,430 No. I said this would be a stop and it would be a wrong trade transaction. It would simply be a loss. That's the difference between someone that understands
106 00:19:56,430 --> 00:20:08,700 how to trade and someone that wants to look smart or build to cloud. And that's usually where that same individual would never take the other side of the trade.
107 00:20:08,730 --> 00:20:16,800 They, they're signing internally with one of those perspectives that they've shared online. But they're never going to commit to the one that they're really
108 00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:26,310 signing with, or maybe even put a transaction behind. And I don't believe any of them really doing transactions either. Not even on a demo basis, either. So what
109 00:20:26,310 --> 00:20:35,610 are you left with? You're left with a decision of, are you just watching this person because of its morbid curiosity that drives you to keep going back to
110 00:20:35,610 --> 00:20:44,550 their Twitter? And maybe that's the case with me? Or are you really getting something from it, because if you're just getting a dopamine drop, well, you can
111 00:20:44,550 --> 00:20:51,780 get that somewhere else. And you should get it from your own experiences in trading don't support these Twitter heroes that are unproven. Because if they
112 00:20:51,780 --> 00:21:00,750 have all these AB scenarios, okay, and they haven't really said, this is the one that's going to pan out, that doesn't mean shit, it doesn't mean anything. It
113 00:21:00,750 --> 00:21:13,500 just means that these are hypothetical scenarios. And I have created an an opportunity where I can be right in either sense. And just like a magician has a
114 00:21:13,530 --> 00:21:21,480 concept called a magician's force. If we were in the same room together, I could force a card on you about 70 different ways, and you would never know how I did
115 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:30,840 it. They're all different, but it's the same concept, I'm giving you the card, you thought you had a free choice of if we're watching scenarios be presented by
116 00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:39,870 someone, okay. Invariably, what happens is the new trader or the new board, or someone that's just really just feeling down about their inability to find
117 00:21:39,870 --> 00:21:49,530 consistency, they want someone put these multiple scenarios up, okay. And what happens is, one of them might come close to peak panning out, it might be very
118 00:21:49,530 --> 00:21:57,960 close to it, it doesn't really unfold exactly like they state or show and scribble lines, if it does this, it'll be a buy. If it does this, it'll be a
119 00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:07,290 sell, I can't stay it irks the shit out of me. Because that's not someone that understands what's going on. A trader doesn't make decisions like that. Okay,
120 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:17,250 that's someone that says talking about things that someone that just wants to look smart after the fact. side with the market, that's going to be most likely
121 00:22:17,250 --> 00:22:26,880 to be profitable, the direction that's going to happen in your mind side with that and stick with that don't get the double sided narrative, okay? Because the
122 00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:36,480 noob will come back and say, Wow, look at that ledge. Look at that guy. He's so smart. He's this, he's that he's full of shit, because all he did was let you
123 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:47,160 decide in your own mind after the fact, what you thought was all along his intentions or his motives behind doing it. Don't believe me? Go back and look at
124 00:22:47,160 --> 00:23:02,310 all that bullshit, because that's all it is. Now going on with presently what we see here. The market first has to give the the the notion and provide the
125 00:23:02,310 --> 00:23:11,730 evidence to the traders that it's going to move. Now obviously, the institutional workflow is bearish, we understand that when the markets in
126 00:23:11,730 --> 00:23:23,490 consolidation, what we want to see is a low be taken. That's this one right here. Once the market breaks down like that, what that has done is upset the
127 00:23:23,550 --> 00:23:32,760 underlying sentiment during this consolidation. So here we have that suppose a trendline. Okay, and folks that were looking for this to provide support, they
128 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:43,110 would have bought in here with expectation of having a stop here just below that, and or right below here, either or either scenario. But when they see this
129 00:23:43,110 --> 00:23:50,670 breaking that suppose that trend line, their bullishness is going to be tested, if their stop hasn't been hit, they're going to be thinking, Okay, maybe I'm
130 00:23:50,670 --> 00:23:59,010 wrong. Maybe I need to change directions, because I have to always be in the marketplace, thinking like a retail trader, they may look at this and say, Well,
131 00:23:59,010 --> 00:24:07,560 I'm going to trade that retest of the broken trendline. And I'll go short there. And I'll use this safe spot here because this is clearly resistance. All this
132 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:17,520 does is to build a greater interest in this level, to put liquidity in the form of a buy stocks that buy stock liquidity, or as I call it, a liquidity pool that
133 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:18,600 will build
134 00:24:20,130 --> 00:24:32,310 a willing base to sell into who wants to sell it, they're informed money, like myself and the people that follow me. I tell them exactly where smart money will
135 00:24:32,370 --> 00:24:42,720 engage, why they're trying to get price there, because it's going to be in a stablished effort to get it to back below this low here. So right in here.
136 00:24:45,810 --> 00:24:55,650 Classic market making strategy is you want to see a break lower first, some kind of a narrative where it drops lower it can be simply running on oh well. I
137 00:24:55,650 --> 00:25:03,720 always like to look for a trendline not because I like trend lines to trade off of them. Because I'm what I'm doing is I'm taking the the theory and the belief
138 00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:13,200 structure around trend lines and using it against and exploiting the retail minded traders. I do it all the time, every single week on Twitter. In forex, I
139 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:22,350 do it every single day just about in forex, and this stuff repeats over and over and over again. And that's the reason why you have that high 90% likelihood that
140 00:25:22,350 --> 00:25:35,130 you're gonna lose your money, because you believe in this bullshit. So right in here, if we have an unknown amount of buy stocks, we don't know how much it is,
141 00:25:35,130 --> 00:25:42,930 I don't care. I don't need to know that. You know, I had some guy on Twitter, say, go over to bit Mex. And you'll see that the crypto markets don't trade like
142 00:25:42,930 --> 00:25:54,450 that. Okay, if it's trading, it's going to do this. This is market making period. Okay, nonetheless. So selling short here with some stop above here, we
143 00:25:54,450 --> 00:26:02,670 don't know how high it's going to go. Why don't you? Why don't you know how high it's going to go. If you don't know how high it's going to go, then you probably
144 00:26:02,670 --> 00:26:10,680 shouldn't take the trade above these equal highs is going to be a form of liquidity, it's going to be a bunch of buy stops. Why? Because you have traders
145 00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:17,670 that are already shorting here, they're going to trail their stop loss there, or they're going to see this trend line here. And then when they trade to it,
146 00:26:17,670 --> 00:26:28,770 they're going to put a stop loss rate above that, because they want a really, really ultra short, tight stop. Same idea. When we see that, above these equal
147 00:26:28,770 --> 00:26:37,170 highs, all we have to do is look for the next level liquidity to the left of it, that's right in here, right in there. So now we have a range, we have this low
148 00:26:37,170 --> 00:26:52,380 here and we have this high here, watch. Okay, I'm going to take the low of that range. So there it is. Now, the 50 levels right there. All I'm going to do is
149 00:26:52,380 --> 00:27:09,060 put a line right on that 50. So here's the zero 23 638 and 50. Right there. Right, so now we have our specific price level right here. It's in the middle of
150 00:27:09,060 --> 00:27:19,050 the consolidation, private move of these equal highs, which is going to form a buy stop liquidity pool. Now this first punch up in here, it may take a first
151 00:27:19,290 --> 00:27:32,850 layer of stops away. then boom. It's the specific price level that's outlined as I teach it. This is market structure, ICT level, there's a lot of market
152 00:27:32,850 --> 00:27:42,270 structure ideas that usually are talked about through like Elliott Wave, which I think is a bunch of bullshit too. And I'm not trying to be disrespectful as much
153 00:27:42,270 --> 00:27:53,160 as it may sound it I know there's people out there that are profitable trading Elliott Wave. But if you studied my concepts, I guarantee you, you will see an
154 00:27:53,160 --> 00:28:01,560 improvement on your understanding of price action, and you'll slowly work away from the Elliott Wave stuff. But right in here, that's where price trades. Okay,
155 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:13,020 is that random? Hell no, it's not random. Now, once it trades here, it's over. It's not going higher. But when a noob sees this, they're thinking, wow, you
156 00:28:13,020 --> 00:28:22,500 know, this thing has gone up. This trend line is no longer any good. So let me get rid of that. So now it's going higher. I'm gonna buy this support because
157 00:28:22,500 --> 00:28:32,940 look, here it is resistance broken now becomes support. So now what are they doing? They're buying it. It's going to the moon baby. I see T's wrong on this
158 00:28:32,940 --> 00:28:45,900 one. I can't wait to see how he responds to that tweet. Where's the Where's the other side of the market while they ran the buy stops who sold those by stops
159 00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:54,000 smart money. So how are they going to get out of that position they're in because they've offered liquidity to those that want to be using the buy stock
160 00:28:54,000 --> 00:29:05,160 to exit or short or use it to be a breakout artist to go higher. because everything's about the moon for whatever reason. Now the liquidity rests here.
161 00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:17,130 Great there and now we're back in line and in sync with the narrative that that whole downside institution order flow, what's been going on for over a year now
162 00:29:17,130 --> 00:29:29,520 and Bitcoin it's going lower. So the buy stocks have been purchased by the stops on shorts or buying on a breakout for underlying Long's they had been
163 00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:40,260 counterparties to Smart Money looking to sell short so they sold here. So there's a book made on them offering liquidity as they would need to be trading
164 00:29:40,290 --> 00:29:50,310 shorts with protection. So they given that that that mode of efficiency for for traders, so they can't complain. They gave them their buy stuff they asked for
165 00:29:50,310 --> 00:29:57,990 it they put their stop loss rate above these equal highs. But now the smart money if taken a position by going short here and they want to see price go
166 00:29:57,990 --> 00:30:07,980 below this low and this low. In this low, because otherwise offering just a liquidity over here, they can't keep a house profitable if they do that. In
167 00:30:07,980 --> 00:30:17,340 other words, the common misnomer is the market makers neutral. Okay? people that believe that have no idea what the fuck they're talking about because they are
168 00:30:17,670 --> 00:30:25,740 means of making a book and offering liquidity, yes. Okay. But that's not what they're doing. They're not making money just primarily on the spread basis of
169 00:30:25,740 --> 00:30:34,860 that, and then that's their whole basis and sound. profitability. No, they're, they're actively participating to you think they're not going to participate
170 00:30:34,860 --> 00:30:43,200 something they're in control up, think about what you just stated, think about these people that you know, go on TV, or they write books, or they go on social
171 00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:52,620 media and sales stuff, I turn all that stuff upside down every single fucking day on Twitter, it's every single day clockwork with me, I show it all the time.
172 00:30:52,740 --> 00:31:00,120 And it's the same stuff. It's not ambiguous, it's always the same structure, it's 180 degrees diametrically opposed from everything you fucking learn in
173 00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:08,790 books, it's as simple as that. You throw the books away, throw them away, stop buying fucking books, they're not teaching you anything except for doing the
174 00:31:08,790 --> 00:31:17,160 wrong thing over and over and over again. So now that the liquidity has been absorbed by stocks have been Counterparty to short sellers on the Smart Money
175 00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:28,710 side, the market is free to trade lower. And the market trades lower. Runs quickly to the stock because they don't want anybody getting out and runs this
176 00:31:28,710 --> 00:31:40,710 stop and it runs below here. The markets presently hanging around right above this level here. Why is it? Why is it doing that? Because it's giving traders
177 00:31:40,770 --> 00:31:52,560 the hope aspect, they want to see support found here and you want to see a trade all the way up to 10,000 12,000 50,000 150,000. There's nothing in here stating
178 00:31:52,590 --> 00:32:04,950 that that's going to happen. The most probable outcome is going to be it's going to 3000. Now, why 3000? If we go back out to a daily chart, once September 15th
179 00:32:04,950 --> 00:32:19,170 of 2017 we have a low of 2975. So what's the round number right above that? 3000. So 3000, to me is the draw on price that we're that's where price on
180 00:32:19,170 --> 00:32:28,860 Bitcoin most likely will go go to it's obviously going to have liquidity below that low. So it could be in the form of 2800. It could be like 2500 because it
181 00:32:28,860 --> 00:32:39,480 eats into all of this area in here. Okay, and then we have the strong likelihood if we get really animated, we could see it run below these lows here. But
182 00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:49,350 ultimately, bitcoins go into $100. Okay, and like I said, it's not to be disrespectful to anyone, you know, I understand everyone that was making money
183 00:32:49,350 --> 00:32:57,990 here, and now you're not, but I told you back here, it wasn't going on. It wasn't hitting 20,000 go back on Twitter, you'll see it. I even show it to you
184 00:32:57,990 --> 00:33:10,110 in chart I explain it to you in a chart. Why it's not going to happen. And it's happened ever since then. So hopefully it hasn't upset you too much. If it has
185 00:33:10,110 --> 00:33:18,630 it's not my intentions is obviously meant to get you thinking independently and get off of the social media worshipping of nobodies because they don't know what
186 00:33:18,630 --> 00:33:29,340 they're doing. And getting lucky with one of two scenarios is placed on a chart. That's not prognostication, it's guessing until about the next time which Good
187 00:33:29,340 --> 00:33:30,540 luck and good trading