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ICT YT - 2018-11-27 - ICT Musings On GbpUsd and Bitcoin - Mentorship Level Preview.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-12-22 07:37
1 00:00:35,460 --> 00:00:38,760 ICT: All right, Munchkins Long time no see,
2 00:00:51,810 --> 00:01:03,810 we're looking at the British Pound versus the US dollar or as is commonly referred to in the Forex world cable. So I'm going to kind of use this as a
3 00:01:03,810 --> 00:01:04,650 multi
4 00:01:06,030 --> 00:01:24,180 pronged approach to answering a few questions also respond to a critical student. And we're going to be looking at the difference in contrast between
5 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:39,600 those individuals that have studied my work, and have a limited perspective and very low end experience, but promote themselves as having legend, status or
6 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:51,930 prowess. And that of the actual perspective that one would have, after he using it and learning it and authoring it like I have. So there's gonna be a sense of
7 00:01:51,930 --> 00:02:01,530 arrogance in this video. So if that turns you off, you probably want to turn it off. Okay? Because I'm going to speak in terms that are just blunt. And I don't
8 00:02:01,530 --> 00:02:13,470 expect you to like me for and I don't want handshakes and high fives on Twitter for it. I just have to speak my mind. Because it's time. So I asked a lot of
9 00:02:13,470 --> 00:02:30,630 times on Twitter, by way of an acronym of WYD s question mark. And that is simply a prompt, by me. For those that follow my Twitter, if I share a tweet,
10 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:48,840 and it's including a chart, or I suggest a reference point of the NASA class or a timeframe, and I include WDY s, what do you see? I'm asking you to consider
11 00:02:49,020 --> 00:02:59,100 what is either happened, or what is now in place in price action. So I'm going to use that model here initially in the video and ask you what do you see. Now
12 00:02:59,100 --> 00:03:09,720 this is against an hourly chart of cable. But I want you to look at what we have. And some of you are going to cheat and look at what's happened today, at
13 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:22,020 the time of this recording, November 27 2018, approximately eight minutes before 8am New York time. But don't do that. study what you see here, pause the video
14 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:38,430 and consider what you would consider being a likely scenario given the market action that's shown here. Okay, I'm gonna assume you paused. If you didn't, you,
15 00:03:38,490 --> 00:03:50,550 you should do it right now. Because I'm going to talk about things that will kill the whole opportunity for you to learn. Alright, so there's a large body of
16 00:03:50,640 --> 00:04:01,890 folks that are using my work now. And I'm flattered by that. And I'm aware that it's reached a lot of folks in different continents and countries. And it's,
17 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:13,800 it's amazing to see how far my stuff has gone. But unfortunately, there's some that have cropped up and have tried to make a name for themselves at my expense.
18 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:26,670 But to me, it's hard to make a name for yourself, if you're going to be inconsistent. So I see if the moments that you say the hardest, most critical
19 00:04:26,670 --> 00:04:39,450 statements about me, or my concepts, or the lack thereof, in terms of what I'm able to show what I do show, a lot of the things that you experienced online is
20 00:04:39,660 --> 00:04:52,320 very filtered. And I put a lot of chatter on Twitter, because I want my readers to be highly skeptical, because once you come into the fold, and you really
21 00:04:52,320 --> 00:05:02,280 experience the learning, it's that much more of a profound aha moment. You really feel like you've arrived so So it's all part of the entertainment aspect,
22 00:05:02,280 --> 00:05:12,570 the carnival barker, it's in me that kind of like works up the crowd into a frenzy. And if they're weak minded and they leave, that's exactly what I wanted.
23 00:05:13,290 --> 00:05:23,490 But if you're intrigued and you want to dig a little bit deeper, that's always rewarded. Okay, so with all that said, as a preamble, I want you to consider
24 00:05:25,260 --> 00:05:28,560 what has taken place over here.
25 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:43,590 Okay, so mentorship folks can rest assure that everything I'm showing here, it's all hindsight now. So there's no benefit to those outside of mentorship, except
26 00:05:43,590 --> 00:05:53,340 for just a simple, I told you so. Okay, so everyone in the mentorship, obviously, you know, over 11,000 people now have seen this before happened.
27 00:05:53,430 --> 00:06:01,110 Okay, I explained it, I'll give you two clips, where you actually see me tell you this in the mentorship. So I'm going to give you a little soundbite some
28 00:06:01,110 --> 00:06:13,350 video clips, of what actually said, and those in their mentorship can call me a liar if I'm not showing you exactly what was shown in mentorship. Okay, so we
29 00:06:13,350 --> 00:06:23,100 have equal highs in here, the work was done here, two runs, one, the liquidity the buy, stocks were taken. And then price traded lower left, these equal lows
30 00:06:23,100 --> 00:06:34,530 intact, rallied up failed to go any higher than this hot here. Why, why they fail here. Because the work was already done over here. There's rarely and I'm
31 00:06:34,980 --> 00:06:46,620 underscoring that and holding my fingers up like quotations. Rarely an instance where we have a stop run, and then another stock run, and then go lower. If it
32 00:06:46,620 --> 00:06:57,300 does, this is a freebie. If it ever shows a run again on another high and then breaks down, you really have a dead ringer, it's going to probably be an
33 00:06:57,300 --> 00:07:06,960 explosive move. In this case, it would be a large extrapolate move to the downside. Once the price action breaks down, we don't need to know that it's
34 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:18,540 going to go down here we don't need to know that it's going to go down here. We wait for price to Tibbets hand. Now, truth be told, I had told the mentorship
35 00:07:18,630 --> 00:07:35,370 students to be careful with cable cable is going to be a very reactive and responsive to Brexit related news. When price action presented something very
36 00:07:36,090 --> 00:07:49,320 generic very run of the mill, if you will, it's very easy then to step in. But when it's unclear, or when there's a lot of risk around a specific market or
37 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:59,940 pair, it's best to stand back and just wait. Now a novice will run in and assume right away that they have it figured out it's it's one sided, it's going to be
38 00:07:59,940 --> 00:08:13,140 this or it's that and the wise will will sit back and wait for more insight, the impatience of of a novice or those that lack experience. They may talk like me,
39 00:08:13,170 --> 00:08:22,440 they may use my vernacular, they may talk the things that I say and repeat them in verbatim and make it sound like they were the ones that created that idea.
40 00:08:22,650 --> 00:08:29,370 Okay, but it's really just regurgitation of everything that I've ever said in video. I guess if you listen to videos over and over and over again, I'm
41 00:08:29,370 --> 00:08:39,240 brainwashing you to eventually start talking like me, that's not my goal. But those that try to promote themselves. They all sound like me, but very few and
42 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:51,060 far between are able to actually deliver with the concepts. Okay, so I'm kind of like poking you to kind of like, weigh these folks out, weigh them, okay?
43 00:08:51,060 --> 00:09:03,840 Because just because they can talk about what's already happened and use my vocabulary in my terms, it to a novice, okay, or neophyte, that's watching them.
44 00:09:04,260 --> 00:09:12,660 They're enamored by that. They feel like, wow, this guy has it all figured out. And I need to be paying attention. But then when you start falling going
45 00:09:12,660 --> 00:09:20,820 forward, or even looking at their examples about what they think is going to happen, they fall on their face. And that's what I do. In one particular there's
46 00:09:20,820 --> 00:09:29,310 a ex student of mine that I watch, and I use as a sentiment gauge. Everything that this young man thinks he's doing, I'm fading that and if you look at the
47 00:09:29,310 --> 00:09:43,440 mentorship, it's exactly as simple as that. Because hot shots, okay, are the best sentiment gauge. Those that think they're the hot shot of a market or they
48 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:55,710 haven't figured out yet all those types of things, promote this false sense of security. And that illusion. Over time that you're feeding spectators that are
49 00:09:55,710 --> 00:10:03,570 watching you, you end up eventually believing your own bullshit and I think that's What's happened with this young man, but I, I'm taking advantage of it
50 00:10:03,570 --> 00:10:12,240 because I know that that's a perfect sentiment gauge. And he's proven thus far to be almost like a 90%. fade. So
51 00:10:12,929 --> 00:10:26,399 if we're looking at cable in respect to what could happen, what scenarios may unfold for future price moves, you have to have a storyline behind it. Okay, and
52 00:10:26,849 --> 00:10:36,569 the folks that study my work, they go right in anyone look at order blocks, like that's going to be the panacea. That's the, that's the magic bullet. And it's
53 00:10:36,569 --> 00:10:45,569 just one more element to a larger hole that you have to understand. So it's not a matter of what order block should I have? Because I figured that out on know
54 00:10:45,569 --> 00:10:54,419 when to buy when to sell? No, that's not that's not what it is. You need to know what the narrative is behind price action, you have to have a higher timeframe
55 00:10:54,449 --> 00:11:06,179 premise in mind, that means what is likely to occur from a directional standpoint, now, there are some that will promote the idea of the absence of a
56 00:11:06,179 --> 00:11:15,749 bias is the purest form of trading. And I would counter that with that's bullshit. So those individuals that say they don't need a bias are the ones that
57 00:11:15,749 --> 00:11:25,589 can't derive a bias. So it stands to reason that if that's the case, and that's their belief, then it's very telling about their ability or lack thereof, in
58 00:11:25,589 --> 00:11:40,169 terms of analysis. So the whole basis of profiting, okay or the hopes there of a profiting has to come on the heels of move movement and volatility. If we step
59 00:11:40,169 --> 00:11:50,639 into this arena as a trader, or an analyst, even, and we assume that we are going to be profitable, or have hopes that we're going to be profitable, we have
60 00:11:50,639 --> 00:12:04,919 to have a measure of prognostication. And without a bias, that's unachievable. It can't be reached. So if someone says, Well, I don't, I don't try to form a
61 00:12:04,919 --> 00:12:14,009 bias, I just trade this or that, well, you got to have a bias. Are you bullish or bearish, you have to start somewhere. And that's always derived from a higher
62 00:12:14,009 --> 00:12:23,849 timeframe. Good. Go to combination via weekly and daily. And the longer you spend time on those higher timeframes, the more you'll probably talk yourself
63 00:12:23,849 --> 00:12:32,459 out of the bias, the most obvious one that occurs by studying weekly and daily, that direction, whether it be bullish or bearish, just go with that and stick
64 00:12:32,459 --> 00:12:40,649 with it. So with all that I've done free tutorials where you can do that I'm not going to rehash that. And I'll try to do a whole synopsis on one bias here, but
65 00:12:41,609 --> 00:12:49,439 assuming, and I'm taking a great deal of liberty here because I know some of you are going to say, Well, how do I do this and how to do that my response would
66 00:12:49,439 --> 00:12:59,579 be, go through all my free videos on the website, the inner circle trader.com, you have to register your account. I been backed up recently with emails and
67 00:12:59,579 --> 00:13:09,749 such, but every few days or so I'll go in and see if new accounts have been started or waiting for registration approval and then approve them, then you can
68 00:13:09,749 --> 00:13:18,809 go in and see my free tutorials. You're all looking for market maker videos, they're in the free form, I won't put them on YouTube. And when people try to
69 00:13:18,809 --> 00:13:27,239 upload them, I get a flag and it tells me and I tell you to to take it down because I don't want that on YouTube. It's all free. You guys can come into my
70 00:13:27,239 --> 00:13:35,639 free forum and see it but it's not in China. Like I'm hiding it from you. I just don't want it on YouTube because you know that they're gonna make money off ads
71 00:13:35,639 --> 00:13:46,109 and I don't want money made off of that. I can make a whole lot of money with it, but I don't want to so the point is, when we're looking at price, we want to
72 00:13:46,109 --> 00:13:56,879 number one, understand the narrative, what's the storyline from a higher timeframe and then start looking for evidences and clues as to what price may do
73 00:13:56,879 --> 00:14:08,819 next. So here we have this whole bit of price action ring in here. This starts our narrative Okay, they ran by stops why would the market run by stops because
74 00:14:08,819 --> 00:14:21,209 it wants to go lower or they want to offset old Long's so it's a profitable exit. Well, prior to this whole business here what was priced doing trading
75 00:14:21,209 --> 00:14:32,969 lower. So at the retracement, we clear some highs here so there's buy stops here. Buy stops here. Buy stops here large liquidity pool ran out. tries to run
76 00:14:32,969 --> 00:14:37,469 one more time. Bull flag traders see that think okay, it's going to go higher now.
77 00:14:39,210 --> 00:14:49,890 Fibonacci retracement guys they see this maybe even falsely assume that it's a optimal trade entry for a long wrong the narrative is they ran by stops in an
78 00:14:49,890 --> 00:14:59,970 existing downtrend. Okay or institutional order flow in this case would be deemed bearish. So we're focusing on the sell side of the marketplace. We're
79 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:11,610 Looking for lower prices, any rallies, okay, or future runs on buy stops, should offer favorable shorting opportunities. So we have this quick decline here,
80 00:15:11,790 --> 00:15:21,870 okay, and those individuals that study my work, they will assume that this is an efficiency, and they're going to look for that to be filled in all through here.
81 00:15:22,260 --> 00:15:37,560 Okay. And that's when we're going to get into the lack of experience. Because when people do this, this is what they end up coming away with, they see this,
82 00:15:37,650 --> 00:15:53,730 okay, and they assume that it's going to fill and arrogance will step in. Some ego minded, you know, impulse will force them to get online, share something
83 00:15:54,210 --> 00:16:17,880 tweeted, and wait to feel like they're smart. And only after it runs up in here, okay. So all this price action here was another layer, and a larger layer of by
84 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:30,600 side liquidity, numbers by stops. So we had this whole section of retail resistance, price starts to drop down, drops down a bit lower, cross a little
85 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:41,070 bit lower, and then runs all the way up into this level here. And I'll talk about the elements and prove that I already expected this to happen anyway, by
86 00:16:41,070 --> 00:16:51,240 way of video. And again, I have 11,000 people, that'll call me a liar. If I'm saying what I'm saying in this video is untrue. But up here, there's nothing
87 00:16:51,240 --> 00:17:06,150 inefficient up here. Okay, so this whole business filming, that is not going to happen, because it's already been done. Over here. I introduced a concept called
88 00:17:06,330 --> 00:17:19,140 the ice breaker. And some people understand it, some people think they understand it and make videos and, you know, teaching groups, but they really
89 00:17:19,170 --> 00:17:27,660 don't have a firm grasp on it. Sometimes they got it, sometimes they don't. But to understand the breaker, you have to understand take a step back away from
90 00:17:27,660 --> 00:17:37,590 price action, from a technical standpoint. And just think in terms of order flow. Now, I'm not talking about depth of market or, or ladders or anything like
91 00:17:37,590 --> 00:17:47,910 that. I'm talking about just the storyline. This is what you do with your downtime on the weekends, you want to go through past price action, and see what
92 00:17:47,910 --> 00:17:58,800 examples took place on a 15 minute and an hourly basis on any asset class or any market. If you do this every single week, spend about 30 minutes doing it, make
93 00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:07,080 notations on your charts and say, Okay, well, like I just did here earlier, you know, these highs drawn out as equal, with his old high back here, price ran
94 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:20,790 that if you start studying this, okay, I saw all these things back in the 90s. And it wasn't until I was approached by people that are in the realm of making
95 00:18:20,790 --> 00:18:35,040 markets, okay. And I bridged what was potentially able to be used as a career for me as a market maker. But I declined on all that I didn't want to do any of
96 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:47,220 that. Because I had figured out what the missing piece was. I took what was offered as real market making concepts, which is completely void, anything you
97 00:18:47,220 --> 00:18:54,930 see on YouTube that has market makers attached to it. This basically bullshit, okay, none of that's market maker, nothing. It's none of its market maker.
98 00:18:55,650 --> 00:19:04,590 Everything that I teach is absolutely market making concepts. And it's proven because I'm the only one that's doing this consistently every single week, to
99 00:19:04,590 --> 00:19:14,940 the PIP every single week. Everyone else, they have all these things, these have these gadgets and little things around the chart. soon as you start doing that
100 00:19:14,970 --> 00:19:24,210 you'll take away the whole effects of market making because market making has nothing to do with indicators. It has nothing to do with anything except for the
101 00:19:24,210 --> 00:19:34,680 open high low and close price delivery. That's it, that's all it is. Okay, liquidity and price delivery. So the third aspect of that is time so it's time
102 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:35,310 price theory.
103 00:19:36,630 --> 00:19:52,710 If we can see that this down closed candle is the bearish breaker. Okay, it's the down closed candle right before run up clearing highs. So our I need to go
104 00:19:52,710 --> 00:20:03,930 right to that. So anyone that's starting to look at this over here and say this is got to be filled. Okay? Or filmi bitch, they're completely clueless, they
105 00:20:03,930 --> 00:20:13,740 have no idea what they're doing. And they don't understand my concepts. If we can see inside this block of price action written here, now I say block because
106 00:20:13,740 --> 00:20:32,220 it's basically a big square. Okay, and all of this price action in here. There is essentially, one big consolidation where the work has been done. What work is
107 00:20:32,220 --> 00:20:44,310 that Michael, they ran the stops on the buy stops. Okay, so the market is primed. Now, to go lower. That's this move here. All we have to do is go inside
108 00:20:44,310 --> 00:20:53,490 of this range, and I use the low here in the high here. Now if we're doing like Fibonacci work, you saw my free tutorials where you can use the bodies of the
109 00:20:53,490 --> 00:21:04,170 candles and get a more close depiction of where the Fibonacci should be sensitive to. Okay, and overlap that with institutional pricing. But necessary
110 00:21:04,470 --> 00:21:10,320 regard. We're looking at that range here.
111 00:21:15,870 --> 00:21:26,640 Okay, so I have a measurement already here of equilibrium. That's what's showing right here. And equilibrium on this field is just basically 50% level. And I got
112 00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:39,780 a tweet to me this one I didn't respond to, but I'll say the answer to it here. I'm certainly republican to watch this video. The 50% level is basically fair
113 00:21:39,780 --> 00:21:54,060 value. Okay, when prices retrace back to a 50% basis of any previous swing, generally, there is a bounce of some sort. But if you add context to it, like
114 00:21:54,060 --> 00:22:03,240 I'm showing you here and teaching, the element of price narrative, and which is a real market making concept, and you don't see that on YouTube, Martin Cole
115 00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:11,400 doesn't talk about it. Steve Morrow doesn't talk about it. Because these guys studied all my old stuff, and rehash it and create all kinds of horseshit out of
116 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:27,480 it. So long and short. equilibrium is 50%. And if you go back to that level, expect some recapitalisation in the form of whatever existed prior, okay,
117 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:36,570 whatever was before, in terms of price movement, it will probably continue at that point in that same direction. In other words, it'll create a support
118 00:22:36,570 --> 00:22:55,500 resistance theory. So we have this level here. Okay, so we have 128 79, essentially, so if we have that level based on the fib, okay, I'm going to take
119 00:22:55,500 --> 00:23:08,130 the fib off, because you don't need it now. So we have 129 79. So what level was that essentially in terms of institutional pricing 129 80. So if we calibrate
120 00:23:08,130 --> 00:23:19,590 that to 129 80, that's a price that's should be sensitive anyway, by itself. Now we add to it that we have a equilibrium price point inside of this
121 00:23:19,770 --> 00:23:35,370 consolidation. Now we can ring in our fib. And I'll explain what I'm going to do here in a minute. Draw the fib from that level down. This is where Fibonacci
122 00:23:35,610 --> 00:23:48,240 becomes magic. If you take the ad level drop down to the low, that's our working range, okay, that's where we can get an optimal trade entry. That's where we can
123 00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:59,820 look for price to reach up into and not up into here, this does not need to be filled, because it's already been balanced. Okay, this whole run up, it's done
124 00:23:59,820 --> 00:24:08,430 its work, it's random by stops, there's no necessity for it to come back up in here and fill that. In fact, if price goes up into that, it's far less likely to
125 00:24:08,430 --> 00:24:18,870 trade low or because it's gone back above what would be deemed requirement for mitigation. mitigation is going to be done in here anything was taken long here.
126 00:24:19,710 --> 00:24:33,870 If so, facilitate around on in house liquidity for like a broker or a liquidity provider, they will have to exit that those positions many times if the price
127 00:24:33,870 --> 00:24:44,700 moves quickly like this, they may not have the opportunity to unwind those Long's they had here, because they may be offering or making a book for sellers.
128 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:56,160 So if a large body of liquidity is looking to sell this particular pair, the liquidity provider or the broker, they may have to operate in house as a
129 00:24:56,160 --> 00:25:06,570 liquidity provider and take the buy side of that. So they can now mitigate this entry here at a later time when it trades back up to this price point, which is
130 00:25:06,570 --> 00:25:16,530 the bearish breaker. So we have this window or optimal trade entry right in here. Now I'm going to do is draw this out just a little bit so you can see the
131 00:25:16,530 --> 00:25:31,380 overlap right there. So we have optimal trade entry. You can see it here. This is basically this is 79%, tradesmen level and a 60 62% retracement level. If we
132 00:25:31,380 --> 00:25:36,240 have that. And I add a
133 00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:18,480 let's go with a different shade of orange. All right. So now once we have this, this no longer is the novice view, this is the informed view with my concepts.
134 00:26:18,690 --> 00:26:30,390 So did naive aspect of looking at price has now been removed. We have a liquidity pool and form of buy stocks resting here. The narrative is they've
135 00:26:30,390 --> 00:26:43,950 already ran stops over here. So any rally above to take these stops should be what song opportunity, okay. And we can calibrate that to 129 30 was where it
136 00:26:43,950 --> 00:26:57,090 can reach up to as a 75% tradesmen level, the low end takes us into basically this old high. So the high comes in 2885, which is a five level great, you can
137 00:26:57,120 --> 00:27:12,660 be aggressive, and look to see it trade the midpoint, okay, which would be like 70.5 level, that's my sweet spot for optimal trade entry. Again, it's 70.5. And
138 00:27:12,750 --> 00:27:22,860 if that trades to that price level, in this case, it would be approximately 120 905. or very close to it. Or it basically you can be a seller at 129. Big
139 00:27:22,860 --> 00:27:32,610 figure, anything above 129 big figure is a bonus. Okay, but you have to consider this for your entry and where your stop loss would be in relationship to that
140 00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:47,460 formation and price. So we have an overlap of the breaker here at 1.9 19. That's this body here on this down close candle. We also have the equilibrium as the
141 00:27:47,460 --> 00:27:56,580 anchor point, because why am I drawing it from here? Because I already know what you're asking me, I can read your mind the element of needing to come back to
142 00:27:56,580 --> 00:28:08,220 that price point. Okay, after we've had this breaker, it's highly unlikely if we would have had no breaker in here and it was just consolidation and lower highs,
143 00:28:08,610 --> 00:28:17,190 then the equilibrium price point would probably be reached up into and then lower prices would be in order or would be reasonable. Okay. That's the reason
144 00:28:17,190 --> 00:28:26,130 why the equilibrium price point here is not going to be a magnet or draw on liquidity. It's going to be an anchor point. Okay, so I know all this sounds
145 00:28:26,130 --> 00:28:38,220 like hindsight, but trust me, I'm going to show you the videos where it was explained before it all happen. So we have this rally up in here. And you part
146 00:28:38,220 --> 00:28:50,550 two, so you can see it a little bit better. There we are. So this run here is a run on the bizstats. We see this. We're looking to go short. Sell it, where's it
147 00:28:50,550 --> 00:29:01,470 going to reach for? Well, we have all these equal lows in here. There's a liquidity pool resting right below that. And also right there, what's the open
148 00:29:01,470 --> 00:29:19,140 on that? 127 49 k 127 49 if prices above that open, as it will be here. And it's expected to trade down to that what's the nearest institutional price level to
149 00:29:19,140 --> 00:29:37,350 that? 127 50 right. Look at the open again. 127 49 and if price is above that coming down to it because price very well could bounce there and create an
150 00:29:37,350 --> 00:29:51,390 opportunity to go long. I'm using this as a framework as an anchor point for draw on liquidity. It's acting as a magnet now. The order block of 127 50 is
151 00:29:51,390 --> 00:30:15,120 where you would look for price to go to So now we've framed the market with institutional reform, the Smart Money view of what should take place the runs on
152 00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:20,520 liquidity, coupling that with the narrative, then we have basically, the
153 00:30:21,780 --> 00:30:30,150 basis of institutional order flow really, everything is in place now for to go lower. Now all you do is look for an entry pattern, entry pattern could be a
154 00:30:30,150 --> 00:30:41,250 rung above the opening on a daily, or it could be a break down waiting for that and then trade up into a bearish Orbach. We're looking at an hourly chart here.
155 00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:50,820 And it's at this moment here, you could be a seller, right at that, because it's hitting the 60% tradesmen level. And we've already done the work of retracing
156 00:30:50,820 --> 00:31:01,170 back up in here, we hit the breaker, all of this isn't going to need to be filled, that's not a that's not a void in liquidity. Okay, folks that think this
157 00:31:01,170 --> 00:31:09,510 is a void, don't understand my concepts, they only watched a couple free tutorials, and didn't pay attention in class and the results show it. But they
158 00:31:09,510 --> 00:31:18,810 could be a seller here. And your stock could be right above this. Now, because the work has been done. It's now is a good, reasonable location for a stop. So
159 00:31:18,810 --> 00:31:29,070 you could be a seller here. And a stop here, again, is the hourly chart. So it's kind of like a swing trade idea. Price manage a little bit stays in here bumps
160 00:31:29,070 --> 00:31:40,350 it again, at the OT. And now we have a breakdown. Now this is what I was saying. You don't have to have the the Moxie to get in here. And trade short here, you
161 00:31:40,350 --> 00:31:49,560 don't need that everyone else is gonna see that as a bull flag. Wait for it to come down, show willingness to want to decline. Here's your upclose candle. This
162 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:59,340 is going to be a bearish order block, wait for the trade back to it. That's here. Okay, it hits it bumps into it. Right there. That's where your short could
163 00:31:59,340 --> 00:32:07,380 be. That's a very, very low risk sell. Now, you're probably thinking, Well, wait a minute, isn't this equal highs? And if I sold here, how do I know it's not
164 00:32:07,380 --> 00:32:17,190 gonna come up in here? I just explained everything to you. All the work has been done here. And all the works been done here. They've already ran stops here. All
165 00:32:17,190 --> 00:32:31,050 this is is a false context of forming pseudo continuation patterns, in this case would be a bull flag. Price comes right back up on this candle here. It opens
166 00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:43,410 trades up into this candle over here. Now what time of the day is this? That's one enclose. So one enclosed is not always the cap on the daily range. Sometimes
167 00:32:43,410 --> 00:32:56,010 it's a continuation. What's the continuation don't lower. So we have opportunity go short rated on the close. Hold, what are we holding for 2750. Now, I want to
168 00:32:56,010 --> 00:33:02,580 learn how to get in here I just showed you. I want to learn how to get up in here before it breaks down I just showed you. I want to get in when it's wrote
169 00:33:02,580 --> 00:33:11,430 really low risk. And I can see with a great deal more confirmation. But I'm willing to give up a little bit of the better pricing I just showed you. Their
170 00:33:11,430 --> 00:33:29,010 shoulder block. Okay, so your ranges here to here. That's my weekly range. I'm looking for 75 to 50 pips, that's what this is. So if we have a run rate in
171 00:33:29,010 --> 00:33:39,750 here, back up to this level, it's going to unnerve some, okay, but your stop loss can be right above here, you don't need to have to worry about that. Yes.
172 00:33:39,780 --> 00:33:48,930 And a swing trade basis, this is going to unsettle some of you that that's not going to unsettle those individuals that know where their stop should be
173 00:33:48,930 --> 00:34:04,110 relative to the narrative that's been priced in prices now make one more time to clear by stops, by stops, we consolidated and ultimately smashed down where they
174 00:34:04,110 --> 00:34:14,940 reach for 127 50. So if the liquidity is going to be attacked around that mid figure, they have to sweep below it a little bit as well, because everyone has a
175 00:34:14,940 --> 00:34:25,740 spread. So if we look at the low that formed the lowest low form today was 2735. So we went 15 pips below that for good measure. So we dipped handsomely inside
176 00:34:25,740 --> 00:34:37,200 of this last enclosed candle or bullish order block, and you can see the subsequent response there are. So if we know that's the narrative now we can
177 00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:57,810 apply institutional levels in concert with what was this explained in this video thus far. Notice how we traded to the 20 level. We hung around the 80 level
178 00:34:58,170 --> 00:35:11,490 broke away from it came down to the big figure trader to mid figure traded down consolidated around the 20 level 20 acted as resistance, and then reached for
179 00:35:11,850 --> 00:35:18,030 the 50 level, paused briefly around the 80, but reached for the 2750 minute figure.
180 00:35:19,710 --> 00:35:30,570 No, notice how every single turning point is occurring at an institutional price level. This is what I taught back in 2010, for free on baby pips. Everything
181 00:35:30,570 --> 00:35:42,540 that I just explained to you with cable was the basis of why I said in response to those inquiring about cable in my mentorship. Now with that said, let's go
182 00:35:42,540 --> 00:35:52,320 and watch what was talked about before the back. So mentorship, I'm giving a small little segment of what I talked about in the last few weeks relative to
183 00:35:52,320 --> 00:36:04,200 cable. And again, if this is not what was shown, you have my permission to call me a blatant liar on Twitter. We have equal highs in here. And I think that this
184 00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:20,280 punch up was just a fake drive. And I think why not going lower as a result, not the Judas. And there you go, there's our equal highs. So I want to see it,
185 00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:31,050 reject that and go lower and make an attack on the sell side of the marketplace. But if we rally through and take out this high, that puts everything on this
186 00:36:31,050 --> 00:36:41,580 mentioned on the backburner and want to take things a different direction at that point. But as long as they stay below this swing high. I'm bearish on cable
187 00:36:42,030 --> 00:36:55,560 weather expansion, clear to start out here. And I say they would roll over not go up. Folks that think they understand a few things from my mentorship or the
188 00:36:56,130 --> 00:37:12,660 free tutorials. They were looking for this area here to quote unquote, fill in, disregarding this whole candle right here, breaker. If we take that and add that
189 00:37:12,660 --> 00:37:13,260 to
190 00:37:19,050 --> 00:37:27,120 the mix, you'll see why I was suggesting that we were going to roll over and notice what I'm doing. I'm telling you what's going to happen before happens.
191 00:37:27,450 --> 00:37:35,010 Then I'm going back in and tell you the reasons why. Why. Because it's a couple guy who's in here. Okay, you're running your own groups. And I'm not going to
192 00:37:35,010 --> 00:37:43,530 give you all the details. You have to work it out on your own if you're selling analysis. I mean, that was nothing but love, obviously. Wink wink nudge nudge.
193 00:37:43,830 --> 00:37:55,380 So we have Farish breaker, right in here. And this is not going to need to be filled in. Okay, because we have a liquidity pool here with a breaker right
194 00:37:55,380 --> 00:38:06,990 there. So what's going to stop price and while we have heavy liquidity here, triple top type thing, we call it, retail resistance of how I see it. So there's
195 00:38:06,990 --> 00:38:15,120 gonna be traders that want to go short cable, you're going to feel comfortable putting their stop loss rate above there, but immediately the left. Got to go
196 00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:25,140 back inside institution order flow, there's your breaker. Okay, so the algorithm if that will go back to that price. Trade right back into it, the high comes in
197 00:38:25,140 --> 00:38:40,440 at 129 29. Okay, so it's five pips, or four pips rather, above 120 and 25. handsomely delivered, and then aggressively sold off, down to the big finger. I
198 00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:52,680 think they're selling a narrative that 128 is support. Don't trust that heavy liquidity resting below here. And over here, okay, so I think that we'll see
199 00:38:52,680 --> 00:39:03,840 that firmer on the dollar, and then run on liquidity down here. And at the very least, I think we should try to run this out. Up here, it looks like it's done
200 00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:12,660 its work as far as rebalancing, I don't think there's any necessity for it to go any higher relative to what's shown right now. So the draw on liquidity, I
201 00:39:12,660 --> 00:39:30,660 believe, is 127 60 to 127 58. We get an expansion 127 20. Okay, so there's our things do have our notations and study that this week cable. So there you have
202 00:39:30,660 --> 00:39:40,500 it, that's what it looks like when you're inside the mentorship. How I explain the market, what I think is going to happen. I do go both ways in terms of my
203 00:39:40,500 --> 00:39:49,530 analysis, but I tell you specifically, what side of the marketplace I'm favoring, and also explain what negates that idea or premise. So it's not like
204 00:39:49,530 --> 00:39:58,500 I'm playing both sides and saying, See, I told you so. I'm telling you, what I believe is going to happen, but what would also next the whole trade. Okay, so
205 00:39:59,370 --> 00:40:12,870 you can see Price did in fact deliver as we expected in mentorship 127 50 was hit. If we do see any further downside, we could see, for instance, all of this
206 00:40:12,870 --> 00:40:24,720 price action here could act as a base of liquidity for new shorts accumulating, and then make a run to that 127 20 will happen. I don't know. But this is enough
207 00:40:24,720 --> 00:40:35,670 for me to do one shot one kill. And it's all it's necessary. 80 pips in the bag, easy, easy, easy trading, simple stuff using liquidity, everything outside of
208 00:40:35,670 --> 00:40:47,340 candlesticks, okay, everything is outside of the, the order block, it's outside of technical analysis. It's all liquidity in order flow. That's it. My
209 00:40:47,340 --> 00:40:57,690 institutional order flow is not what is bandied about as order flow. in retail circles, they try to say that they aren't retail, but they really are retail,
210 00:40:57,690 --> 00:41:07,020 because they're looking at things that retail is looking at. And I'm looking at where your stops are. And your stops are exactly where large funds are in large
211 00:41:07,020 --> 00:41:18,390 one stops. That's where the market goes to. Okay, so, hope you found that insightful. I want to go over to the Bitcoin market, talk a little bit about
212 00:41:18,390 --> 00:41:32,100 that and close this video up. That's a horror story for you. Look at that. Alright, so just want to give credit to my wife, she helped me call the topic 19
213 00:41:32,100 --> 00:41:42,420 seven. Good things, you don't want these videos. Hi, guys. So anyway, deleting the music, I'm terrible. Alright, so it's it's a running gag my wife and I have.
214 00:41:42,540 --> 00:41:55,890 So anyway, the Bitcoin market, you can see, obviously, we've left our multi month consolidation on the downside, drawing attention to this old low, and his
215 00:41:55,890 --> 00:42:05,700 old high back here in his old high back here. So from a classic support resistance theory, this would be deemed the next level of support. Therefore,
216 00:42:05,730 --> 00:42:08,490 there's a lot of talk about
217 00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:23,970 the potential to see 3000 as the next buy. And I agree that 3000 could see some measure of buying, but I think it's going to be in the form of profit taking.
218 00:42:24,390 --> 00:42:35,370 But we still could go a little bit lower, more specifically right below this low here. I think the liquidity resting below that in the range of about 500 points
219 00:42:35,370 --> 00:42:44,910 or so which would take us to about 2500. That's the reason why I tweeted, I thought that 2500 could be interesting, would prove interesting to see if we get
220 00:42:44,910 --> 00:42:55,710 down here. If we get some acceleration beyond 2500, then we really have to consider over here, the liquidity resting below these lows, they would take us
221 00:42:55,710 --> 00:43:14,430 primarily all the way back down to the level seen over here. All right, so let's go into a tighter view on a daily and they'll drop into an hourly. Okay, and I
222 00:43:14,430 --> 00:43:31,140 use daily FX for any crypto discussions. Because that's what I'm familiar with. I don't like trading view as a general medium. And there's a lot of people that
223 00:43:31,140 --> 00:43:43,260 like it. I'm just not I'm very clumsy with it. And I just don't feel I don't feel comfortable using it. Not that it's any less effective. For those that do
224 00:43:43,260 --> 00:43:54,120 use it. There's no rule. platform that's one better than the other. Alright, so how I'm a dinosaur anyway, so I like archaic things in empty for works perfect
225 00:43:54,120 --> 00:44:07,110 for me for that. But nonetheless, looking at the Bitcoin, if you go back on Twitter, I was asked, when we had this nice little pop up in here. I was asked
226 00:44:07,110 --> 00:44:22,800 directly by one of my followers. What did I feel about Bitcoin, having seen this price action, and my response was it's now clear to trade lower. We also talked
227 00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:34,740 about being a seller back in here on this breaker. And we talked about it being a an opportunity is a draw on liquidity. So there was a turning point here. And
228 00:44:34,740 --> 00:44:44,280 there was a turning point here. And also I said that we would stay in a large consolidation potentially could be there for several months. And we saw that
229 00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:58,140 from the summer months all the way into November. I said that 6400 was the catch for all liquidity. It's been working 6400 Okay, it moves away from it comes back
230 00:44:58,140 --> 00:45:08,610 down below. It hangs around. It goes back above, it trades back down to it. It just basically works that level. Okay, so everything was like cumulating, around
231 00:45:08,610 --> 00:45:17,100 the 6400 price level, and go back and look at my twitter and you'll see all that stuff there. But the bias, obviously has always been lower. And we were looking
232 00:45:17,100 --> 00:45:32,520 for 5000 4003 1000. And since added another lower level, which is 2500. It I think personally, if we get to 2500, that would be a great deal of capitulation
233 00:45:32,550 --> 00:45:43,620 and massive, short covering rally could ensue there. Now, when I say massive, I'm not talking 20,000 or 50,000, or even 10,000, could it rally up to like a
234 00:45:43,620 --> 00:45:56,250 5000 level, probably, you know, you could see a double I mean, we saw double from the 6400, you're basically dropping from, from 6500 or so down to the low
235 00:45:56,250 --> 00:46:09,270 that was seen here on again, this is on coin base. So the low being at 3456. So basically, we saw, you know, equity if he had went short. In theory, you
236 00:46:09,270 --> 00:46:19,020 basically doubled your account in November. Theoretically, now I don't trade crypto, I only do this because I have a lot of interest in my students, their
237 00:46:19,020 --> 00:46:27,480 interest rate, not so much mine. But you go through my Twitter, you'll find whatever I said about it, I think it was all say something in here. I was wrong
238 00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:37,830 one, there was a trade in here and did something, not a trade, but an idea about you potentially seeing some bullishness and I gave you clear directions as to
239 00:46:37,830 --> 00:46:46,800 what would negate that trade idea. And it was a failed idea. So it hasn't been like 100%. But I'm in the high 90s. So
240 00:46:48,210 --> 00:46:58,650 I do suspect that 3000 is the near term draw. If you look at price action in here, it just looks really really heavy. I'd like to see it break down below
241 00:46:59,190 --> 00:47:13,110 this candle here. This last up close candle. And if it breaks below that, there should be a pretty quick drive right into 3000. And below, it may initially stab
242 00:47:13,110 --> 00:47:25,950 down the 20 100 come back up to 3000, find some some new distribution, and then roll for 2500. In fact, if it's going to go there at all, go down to an hourly
243 00:47:25,950 --> 00:47:40,260 chart. Okay, we have 60 minute chart, bitcoin price had a nice little pop off of the low in here came up. We ran a short term high here, and we're going to short
244 00:47:40,260 --> 00:47:51,150 term high here right there. said to me, my interpretation of that is anyone that was short, and they're aggressively trailing their stop losses lower to protect
245 00:47:51,150 --> 00:48:03,330 open profits. That's where their stop losses. And they ran that. So I'm thinking if I'm correct, and I'm not stating emphatically that I am because I don't know.
246 00:48:03,780 --> 00:48:18,840 But if this is going to go to 3000 or 2500, this would have been the dirty work for that prior to it unfolding. In other words, we potentially could see a trade
247 00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:31,260 another 1500 to 1000 points lower than the load that was formed here. So if that's the case, they're going to want to knock those individuals out that have
248 00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:45,090 trailed. Post proximity stops, trailed lower in order they went short. Anyone that was going short here, whatever they would, as price was dropping down. They
249 00:48:45,090 --> 00:48:52,680 want to have a real tight stop loss. They don't want to lose anything. They don't want to give the marketing, any breathing room. Their stop is going to be
250 00:48:52,710 --> 00:49:03,540 above here in about here. And that's essentially what has been cleaned up here. And then we broke down one more time. So what would change my near term
251 00:49:03,570 --> 00:49:14,580 bearishness on Bitcoin would be trading above these highs. I don't think it's necessary for price where it is now to trade up to clean this up is it's in your
252 00:49:14,580 --> 00:49:24,300 chart right now. It's on the screen while you're watching this video. I don't see that as a draw on liquidity at this point for it to trade up to that price
253 00:49:24,300 --> 00:49:32,730 point then we've made the low at least for the rest of the year. I don't think we've done that. I think we're going to trade as we go lower and lower into the
254 00:49:32,730 --> 00:49:43,230 end of the year. At some point, even though we've had a pretty respectable decline. I don't think that's the worst of the decline, because there's going to
255 00:49:43,230 --> 00:49:57,780 be a lot more speed, a lot more ferocious, deriving lower price. That's going to be panic song. This is just distribution. And there's a lot of people that are
256 00:49:57,780 --> 00:50:06,240 holding on still thinking well this is going to be fine. You know, I believe in the technology, I believe in the whole theory of blockchain and all that. And
257 00:50:06,240 --> 00:50:16,350 again, I'm not trying to argue with people because admittedly, I don't know enough about you Bitcoin or crypto, I just look at the price chart. And that's
258 00:50:16,350 --> 00:50:27,330 all I care about. And I really wish, I wish I wouldn't have had as much interest from my students in this because it's a reoccurring email question. You know,
259 00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:36,570 what, every day I'm asking, or I'm asked by folks, they're either longtime students, or new people to this discovered me, you know, I'm in a trade, I'm
260 00:50:36,570 --> 00:50:43,890 underwater, do you think it's gonna go back to 12,000? You know, I don't personally see it going back to 12,000. You know, I don't mean that to be rude.
261 00:50:43,890 --> 00:50:54,420 I don't mean it to be, you know, foot or whatever you guys call it? I don't, I don't believe it's going to do that. I think it's going to go lower before it
262 00:50:54,600 --> 00:51:08,670 ever would consider going up higher again. If at all, you know, there's no, there's nothing stating, okay. Anywhere that this is required to go up, even if
263 00:51:08,670 --> 00:51:11,370 the technology is sound, you know, if it's
264 00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:26,160 viable, as a industry, and its long term, use and application and things. Bitcoin itself does not have to go to new highs, it doesn't even have to go 50%
265 00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:36,030 of its all time high. It doesn't even do it does not need to do that. And that's the paradigm shift that's necessary. Because a lot of you guys and gals that are
266 00:51:36,030 --> 00:51:46,080 new, you you believe anything that's being told to you. And because you're worked up in a frenzy, and you're emotionally committed, I am objective about
267 00:51:46,080 --> 00:51:56,850 it, because I don't have a horse in the race. And that's all I'm trying to promote to you is I don't have anything to gain. I just completely objective.
268 00:51:57,000 --> 00:52:06,330 I'm not swayed by any monetary gain or loss. I'm not fearful of missing any moves, because I'm never going to trade it. And I'm not trying to pump up
269 00:52:06,330 --> 00:52:18,690 something I'm holding on to and hopefully get some kind of public participation. I don't I don't have any vested stake in Bitcoin. But I would counsel you to go
270 00:52:18,690 --> 00:52:26,700 back and look at the things I've said about Bitcoin, the run up into it, I was calling 20,000. But then break for 20,000. I said, No, it's not going to happen.
271 00:52:27,270 --> 00:52:35,310 To me, people were looking for it, and the signatures for market making, putting in a top were there, and it's all on Twitter, and a couple of videos on YouTube.
272 00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:52,020 But nonetheless, I do suspect that it'll be a sloppy run you sideways, to down, that's what I think may happen, do I suspect there's going to be any, you know,
273 00:52:52,230 --> 00:53:05,640 pump and dump from where we're at right now, I don't think it needs to do that. So I think we're, we're pretty much limited to about 4000, it may go to 4150, it
274 00:53:05,640 --> 00:53:17,010 could just to go one more time above here and get folks scrambling to either buy or get stopped out because now this is an intermediate term high. But from a 60
275 00:53:17,010 --> 00:53:27,600 minute chart basis. So there is liquidity traded to this from here, they drop it down, protecting their short position that anyone would be holding short, this
276 00:53:27,600 --> 00:53:40,230 will be a good location where their retail idea would more or less provoked them to put their stop loss there. So if we rally above that, that could be an
277 00:53:40,230 --> 00:53:50,880 opportunity to see it a fade. Personally, it would be better had never gone up there at all. And just trade consolidated in here, and maybe run out some short
278 00:53:50,880 --> 00:54:04,380 term low in here. That'd be sufficient. And then go lower. Right now from a classic Chartist standpoint, retail sees this as a pennant or coil. And if I
279 00:54:04,380 --> 00:54:12,360 were making this market, I would do that very thing of this said I would only draw it out for you because you're probably not sure what I'm referring to.
280 00:54:15,480 --> 00:54:34,170 Okay, so essentially, we are looking at something like this. And again, I apologize I not real strong with the the platform here who was empty for I
281 00:54:34,170 --> 00:54:43,560 already have it all in there. But it's kind of like coiling tighter and tighter and tighter. I would if it were me driving this price, I would send it up above
282 00:54:43,560 --> 00:54:51,840 here. run those stops, it would look with a false Well, it wouldn't look like a false breakout to them. But anyone looking at these types of patterns, they
283 00:54:51,840 --> 00:55:00,210 would see that as Okay, we broke out to the upside, and they would assume all kinds of things as you suggesting it go higher. I would look forward to about
284 00:55:00,210 --> 00:55:10,350 these highs and then maybe anticipate some short selling there. And then on the other side of the suppose it coil or pennant. That's just me. I'm not saying
285 00:55:10,350 --> 00:55:19,230 it's something you should invest money in. But I'm not sharing my opinion over a price chart that I'm not invested in. Okay, so I don't even have a demo account
286 00:55:19,230 --> 00:55:33,480 for crypto. So that's the, that's the depths of my willingness to be involved in it. So let's scrunch this up a little bit, put some perspective on it. You can
287 00:55:33,480 --> 00:55:44,220 see we have a very clear discernible trendline there also, which is another reason why I said that. If we go higher, we could run this high here upset that
288 00:55:44,220 --> 00:56:09,420 trendline and then go lower to 3000 and maybe 2500. But for right now, this looks to textbook. Let's put this here. And right. There. Okay. So based on
289 00:56:09,420 --> 00:56:13,890 trendline analysis, all the liquidity is resting here. And,
290 00:56:14,610 --> 00:56:27,060 again, if we trade above this high here, this should offer near term resistance. In other words, I don't think you'll need to run this. But if we do run these
291 00:56:27,060 --> 00:56:36,510 equal highs, I think we probably made the low for the 2018 session. For Bitcoin, you may just chop around, do I think this is the low we can trade and go up to
292 00:56:36,510 --> 00:56:48,060 like 8000 or 7000? I don't personally see that. I think the markets very heavily weighted on the downside. And the question, I'll ask this of the listeners.
293 00:56:49,560 --> 00:57:01,230 Let's just say, for the sake of argument, you you're being talked to by your buddies, or you just that morbid curiosity, went online and heard about crypto,
294 00:57:01,500 --> 00:57:14,190 okay. And supposedly all the Bitcoin millionaires in Bitcoin rich, calm, blah, blah, blah. All these folks that were getting rich last year, okay, maybe you're
295 00:57:14,190 --> 00:57:24,720 inspired to trade crypto. Now, maybe you want to buy into the idea that it's going to go to 50,000 100,000? Or even finally make its way up to 20,000? If you
296 00:57:24,720 --> 00:57:39,510 are considering that. My question is, on what basis are you going to buy? Are you just going to buy because it's cheap, in terms of what 20,000? level, you
297 00:57:39,510 --> 00:57:50,370 know, or the highest high ahead, you know, high 1900s? Yeah, obviously, in terms of evaluation standpoint, it's cheap in regards to that. But ultimately, this
298 00:57:50,370 --> 00:58:00,930 thing could really just trade down to 1000, or block back below 1000. And it could still be a wonderful industry, and Bitcoin could still be used as a
299 00:58:00,930 --> 00:58:16,650 medium, it doesn't need to go up in its evaluation. And for trading, that's my, that's my reminder to all of you, just because its application is available, and
300 00:58:16,650 --> 00:58:28,680 or used does not in any way, shape, or form, constitute the merit for buying it as an investment. That's, that's all I'm suggesting to the people that are just
301 00:58:28,680 --> 00:58:39,180 watching and looking at Bitcoin. And for folks that have more or less sat through this entire decline. You are really an arm wrestling with me. Here we
302 00:58:39,180 --> 00:58:52,980 are, you know, I told you, this is going to happen. And I tried to warn you, all I stated was take your profits, and try going short. That's all and most of you
303 00:58:52,980 --> 00:59:06,030 didn't listen. And I'm not here to jab you with a sharp stick and say, haha, you're stupid. That's not the message here. I want you to not lose any more
304 00:59:06,030 --> 00:59:14,160 money because people are just throwing money at this stuff, and just pouring money into it. And you know, what are you gonna feel, you know, 510 years from
305 00:59:14,160 --> 00:59:23,190 now you look back and you can hear what I said to you. And remember what I said in tweets, it's gonna feel toxic to you. And you're gonna have animosity, you
306 00:59:23,190 --> 00:59:30,510 probably have animosity towards me, like I somehow caused all this. That's a normal feeling. Because I felt like that when I was listening to people online
307 00:59:30,510 --> 00:59:37,470 in the 90s when I was a new trader, oh, that guy. He was spreading all that bad stuff. This market was going to go down whether I said it was going to go down
308 00:59:37,470 --> 00:59:51,270 or not. All I did was point out the reasons why and when it was going to do it. So if you're thinking about buying Bitcoin, I would wait. Okay, that's all I'm
309 00:59:51,270 --> 01:00:02,550 saying. And I don't think that is a good time to buy it. No. And I just want to make sure that I made that very clear and If it protects anyone from losing and
310 01:00:02,550 --> 01:00:12,960 money, that's all it was intended to do. Okay, so number one rolling, investing and trading is you preserve your equity, your capital has to be there or you
311 01:00:12,990 --> 01:00:20,940 don't have a business. So if you're just going in here and just throwing money, or allocating money every single week, you're throwing money at the state
312 01:00:20,940 --> 01:00:28,230 constantly. Has it proven itself to you post? 2018?
313 01:00:30,120 --> 01:00:40,500 I don't think it has. So is it the death knell for crypto, maybe not, something else will happen, some other coin or some idea will come up and they'll get hot
314 01:00:40,500 --> 01:00:49,770 about that, too, if the industry is going to stay around. It's like anything else, folks? There's penny stocks that perform just like this every single year,
315 01:00:50,460 --> 01:01:00,210 every single year, and all of them had the same feelings you had when there was going up in the 1900 19,000. And it's going to the moon, it's gone to the moon.
316 01:01:00,240 --> 01:01:09,570 That's the normal market cycle. And I told you this as we were going up, and then right before the top, I say this is what's happening, we are now in mania,
317 01:01:10,260 --> 01:01:20,430 we need to reel in if you have profits in there, please take them. We're going down the 5000. And it was left that it was you know, I don't know what I'm
318 01:01:20,430 --> 01:01:30,900 talking about. I'm not a crypto trader, Don't listen to him. You're right. I'm not a crypto trader, and you shouldn't listen to me. And all I'm saying is don't
319 01:01:30,900 --> 01:01:40,890 buy it here. Because it could still go lower. And I was talking to guys, you five years ago, six years ago, and they were asking me if I was interested in
320 01:01:40,890 --> 01:01:50,070 Bitcoin and I laughed them and said, there's no way. Now maybe I'm the fool. Because I didn't trade it and I didn't participate in that they will rally. But
321 01:01:50,070 --> 01:01:59,160 I'm not confident I would have been able to pull the money out. Because if I trade I'm trading big. And if I would have been in my intended position size,
322 01:01:59,730 --> 01:02:10,110 you know, I'd be up there based on the range in terms of what the payout was. But I said then, you know, I'm not interested in Bitcoin. And did those guys
323 01:02:10,140 --> 01:02:20,790 ride all the way up to 1970? ish? and not take anything out? Are they rich now? Because I don't see any Bitcoin millionaires? I don't see I don't see him.
324 01:02:21,510 --> 01:02:31,800 There's a lot of talk on the crypto world. But I don't see anyone saying, you know, here's what I've made. And I've done it. Only the people that were
325 01:02:31,800 --> 01:02:42,300 involved in Bitcoin are the ones that sold out and even told you they were dumping it in the don't. So a lot of risks, lots of risks. And I think there
326 01:02:42,300 --> 01:02:54,510 still are risks in this. And as long as the idea is still there that it's it's okay, everything's fine. You know, we're going into a point where we're going to
327 01:02:54,510 --> 01:03:04,950 be a good buying opportunity. It still has downside. And no one is fearful yet. That's the thing, you know, when everyone's talking about is this capitulation
328 01:03:04,950 --> 01:03:16,230 is this capitulation. It's not capitulation, when it is pandemonium, crypto is dead, when you see all those types of things, and no one's talking about crypto
329 01:03:16,410 --> 01:03:31,530 being a buy. That that and only then is when it's probably probably and I underscore that maybe, okay, an opportunity to test a very small position on the
330 01:03:31,530 --> 01:03:43,500 long side. To what level? I don't know. Because the only thing the only thing I'm seeing right now is lower. And there's no real reason for it to go up. And
331 01:03:43,500 --> 01:03:50,970 that's all I got to say. Hopefully you found this video insightful on some of the crypto folks are probably thinking, well, this really doesn't do anything
332 01:03:50,970 --> 01:04:02,010 for me. I'm just trying to be a voice of reason. For those that are just now trying to put their toe in the water. I don't think it's going up from here. And
333 01:04:02,010 --> 01:04:05,490 that's all I have to say till next time which could look into training