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ICT YT - 2017-12-28 - ICT On BitCoin.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-12-22 07:37
1 00:00:11,400 --> 00:00:17,010 ICT: Okay, folks, welcome back. All right, this is a discussion on new markets and market making.
2 00:00:25,950 --> 00:00:36,660 Okay, so we're gonna be talking about blockchain. And before we even get into this, let me preface it by saying, I have never, ever traded any
3 00:00:36,660 --> 00:00:49,080 cryptocurrencies. I've only recently gave it a second look, because my subscriber base is actually growing exponentially, and it has a lot to do with
4 00:00:49,080 --> 00:01:02,700 the crypto community. Now, again, while I have never personally traded crypto, I have 10s of 1000s of subscribers, both on YouTube and my other media that swear
5 00:01:02,700 --> 00:01:18,180 by my concepts working very well in this asset class. So I've spent about two weeks or so from the time this recording. And what I've seen, has shown me that
6 00:01:18,660 --> 00:01:28,710 there's a lot of things that I teach by way of the other asset classes, and my forte really is forex. So some of the things that I teach, I go in and look for,
7 00:01:28,740 --> 00:01:37,050 and if there's any evidence to support those characteristics or traits behind price action, then I believe that smart money's actually working inside that
8 00:01:37,470 --> 00:01:52,170 asset. And now, admittedly, because it was such a new asset, if you want to call it that, they they were too fast. In the limelight, if you will, too many people
9 00:01:52,170 --> 00:02:02,460 were talking about it. And I just felt it was better for me to sit on the sidelines and just wait and see how much growth or interest it gets from the
10 00:02:02,460 --> 00:02:16,050 banks. There's a lot of things that have been said negatively and positively about crypto. And I have been accused of beating up crypto, and I have beat up
11 00:02:16,050 --> 00:02:24,870 individuals that were trying to buy it at 18,000. I just felt that it was foolish to do so. And in fact, you can actually look at the tweets added on
12 00:02:24,870 --> 00:02:35,520 December 17 2017, were actually called the high in the market on Bitcoin. I gave you the reasons why I felt it was not going to hit 20,000. And while initially I
13 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:48,780 was looking for 2000 to 2500 point slide, that was the precursor that led to the ultimate crash. Now, traders are not referring to it as a crash, because that
14 00:02:48,780 --> 00:03:03,060 word begins a whole paradigm shift. Okay. And I think by far and large, the crypto currency market carries the same stigma that penny stocks has. And it's
15 00:03:03,060 --> 00:03:14,130 really basically pump and dump. And because there's really nothing behind the cryptocurrency, except for the perceived value, or the perceived future,
16 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:28,140 usefulness of it as a replacement for fiat currency, it really is still in the same boat. So my argument has always been that all we're doing is talking about
17 00:03:28,470 --> 00:03:37,620 another flavor of ice cream. There's nothing really new under the sun. And while it may seem Maverick or rebellious to be in this type of thing and thinking it's
18 00:03:37,620 --> 00:03:51,690 going to beat the banks. My personal opinion is it was actually started by the banks. The bankers are absolutely shrewd, okay, and you're going to never ever,
19 00:03:51,690 --> 00:04:01,860 ever beat them. Okay, as long as the sun keeps coming up and in the world keeps turning, people are going to be doing business through the medium of a bank, and
20 00:04:01,860 --> 00:04:16,710 you're never going to escape it. So I just want to build this idea going forward. I think that crypto has a place in the future where that is personally
21 00:04:16,710 --> 00:04:27,630 I don't know. I haven't given it that much concerned to study it. I've only recently last couple weeks really give it my time to look at and it's only
22 00:04:27,630 --> 00:04:36,540 because we're on holiday break and forex to me, as it'll you know, it's lackluster for me right now. And I don't actively trade it in the latter parts
23 00:04:36,540 --> 00:04:48,810 of December. So I've given a lot of focus to crypto. And one of the first things I wanted to go into and see if it had hallmarks to how banking algorithms and
24 00:04:48,810 --> 00:05:00,000 how price engines deliver price. If those hallmarks are there in Bitcoin, then in fact it is a manipulated market and it is not a new Bastion for
25 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:11,970 For Mavericks that are escaping the banking industry or the you the Fed, if you will, it's the same show, okay? All it is, is it's wearing a different dress
26 00:05:11,970 --> 00:05:22,620 now. So what I'm gonna cover here is this basically a interpretation of how I look at assets and how I study price action is going to be basically an overview
27 00:05:22,620 --> 00:05:32,730 General, for most of the general concept, now, it's not an exhaustive, there's so many things that I do, and can be done in price action that I can't include
28 00:05:32,730 --> 00:05:42,150 in one video. I mean, any, anyone that has looked at my material knows that I can go on and on and on, and never really exhausted the topic. So just
29 00:05:42,150 --> 00:05:51,300 understand that what I'm going to cover here are just basically those simple things that leads to my appreciation or respect of an asset because it has all
30 00:05:51,300 --> 00:06:04,530 the hallmarks that a large bank or institutional perspective would see in price action. And I'm going to discuss how these hallmarks lend well, to my
31 00:06:04,530 --> 00:06:17,160 understanding of how markets are made, so it'll be a general overview how market making is done, and how that might apply to cryptocurrencies. Alright, so we're
32 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:26,190 going to talk about pricing in premiums for distribution. And this is commonly referred to as pump and dump when we see these events in price action. And
33 00:06:26,190 --> 00:06:40,020 again, they're very synonymous with penny stocks. The ramp up aggressively, you see these stellar rallies, and then everyone piles in at the top, and then it
34 00:06:40,020 --> 00:06:52,440 collapses and crashes down. So I'm going to show you how I gave this insight before the fact on my Twitter feed. I'll give you some explanations as to why I
35 00:06:52,440 --> 00:07:05,250 felt it was likely to occur. And you can use it as an example to study. But it's not random in nature. So when we see these big run ups in price, it's not just
36 00:07:05,250 --> 00:07:15,210 indiscriminate amount of buyers coming in, price has actually been delivered to a specific level. Price seeks this specific level for a purpose of offloading
37 00:07:15,870 --> 00:07:27,780 Smart Money entries that have long earlier entered way before the move started going on. Once the price levels reached, we're going to anticipate and many
38 00:07:27,780 --> 00:07:39,390 times see heavy distribution, when this occurs, most often reversals form. And then what happens is the market will generally run against those long holders
39 00:07:39,390 --> 00:07:41,340 that are wanting to hold for higher prices.
40 00:07:46,620 --> 00:07:58,800 Alright, we're looking at Bitcoin. This is the coin base, Bitcoin versus dollar. And I've highlighted a few things here that I like to look at for price. And
41 00:07:58,830 --> 00:08:06,570 what these are, these are just doing these things because of times of the day. So during London, I'm looking at generally between two o'clock in the morning,
42 00:08:06,570 --> 00:08:19,260 New York time to 5am, New York time. And in New York, kill zone, I'm referring to specifically the 7am, New York time to 10 o'clock in the morning, if I start
43 00:08:19,260 --> 00:08:30,480 seeing hallmarks behind price, respecting these times of day, and when we have equal highs like this, okay, I refer to that as a liquidity pool. And for the
44 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:38,880 purpose of making it easy understand, it's like a Candyland. Okay, so the market will go up here and snatch the candy from those individuals that want to sell
45 00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:50,370 short trusting that as resistance, but I highlighted this level up here 16 450. And the reason why I did that I'll go in details of what that level is towards
46 00:08:50,370 --> 00:08:58,620 the end of the video. But for now, I just want you to focus on the fact that price was heading towards that level. Okay, so that was the specific level had
47 00:08:58,620 --> 00:09:10,020 in mind. So they were pumping it up from way back here and back here and before any started consolidating here. These equal lows are the equivalent of what I've
48 00:09:10,020 --> 00:09:20,130 highlighted here. Resting above these equal highs will be by stops. And below these equal lows we sell stops. So anyone that had been long here, they see
49 00:09:20,130 --> 00:09:27,090 these equal lows. At that moment, they're going to share their stop loss rate below these equal lows and that's what this move is here during the London
50 00:09:27,090 --> 00:09:36,690 session, so I like to see those types of characteristics. Then we had a little bit of retracement again back into New York. And then we had a nice rally up in
51 00:09:36,690 --> 00:09:46,500 price. Again, equal it's hard to see in here but these are equal lows, price came down in New York tagged those stops knocking in again. I need long holders
52 00:09:46,500 --> 00:09:56,040 that had a trailed stop loss in the form of a sell stop. Those would be tagged here. And then and only then the market is permitted to trade higher as price is
53 00:09:56,040 --> 00:10:05,790 starting to reach for this 16 450 my thought process Okay, they're going to distribute there. So there's probably going to be a reversal scenario, most
54 00:10:05,790 --> 00:10:19,740 likely occurring around that level. A bit later on price trades up into that 16 450 level, two times trades to it just a little bit. And ultimately, it
55 00:10:19,740 --> 00:10:31,770 breaks down. Price creates another run below equal lows, and then rallies up. Now I teach this as a specific trading patterns in my optimal trade entry. So
56 00:10:32,550 --> 00:10:41,010 and I'm highlighting here and these are all tweeted charts, they were all time and date stamped, as you can see up here. And again, we have equal lows relative
57 00:10:41,010 --> 00:10:51,720 to these two specific lows here. And that's what's being highlighted. So I believe that the price is going to be drawn down to that level of 15 100, or
58 00:10:51,750 --> 00:11:02,070 15,100. And that's the initial objective. So I'm looking to see if price once you reach down here now, I studied this this entire week with you all publicly,
59 00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:10,380 I didn't know for certain it was going to unfold as accurate as it did. So that's the only reason why I'm even referring to crypto in a YouTube video on my
60 00:11:10,380 --> 00:11:21,090 channel, because I have never really been a fan of crypto. But I'm giving it my attention now because I get asked a lot of questions about it. And I know
61 00:11:21,150 --> 00:11:31,170 there's a large number of my community that actually do trade these assets. And I hear nothing but good things about my concepts working in them. So my interest
62 00:11:31,170 --> 00:11:38,640 has been piqued to the point where let me just take a look at it. And these are some of the things I've seen in the last two weeks. Now there's things that led
63 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:42,780 to me understanding this level as a specific time
64 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:53,310 of day when it would hit. And that specific level. Those are teachings that I do in my mentorship, which is not free, it's not public, I do have a lot of free
65 00:11:53,310 --> 00:12:01,470 tutorials on my website at the inner circle trader.com. And I have a forum there. And you're all welcome to come. And it's there's no charge to go into
66 00:12:01,470 --> 00:12:10,440 that. But I give a lot of detailed teachings. Some of them are older, but they are still relevant. These are concepts that I've been trading with for over 20
67 00:12:10,470 --> 00:12:19,980 years. So there's a lot of gravity towards what I'm teaching the trading community. Because what I teach works, it's not based on any kind of indicator,
68 00:12:19,980 --> 00:12:28,440 it's not based on any kind of, you know, willy nilly gimmick, okay, it's straight price action. And it's based on an institutional perspective, that
69 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:38,640 lends very, very well to a Chartist. So if you like looking at charts, or if you haven't really grown in an appreciation about charting, my concepts kind of
70 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:47,250 force you to do that. If you don't want to subscribe to that view, then my methods aren't going to be any help to you. So the main takeaway is, is trying
71 00:12:47,250 --> 00:12:56,640 not to blend other disciplines with what I teach, because mine more or less is at opposition with everyone else. It's, it's like a lion, it'll it'll defend
72 00:12:56,640 --> 00:13:06,900 itself is turn it loose, it'll do it needs to do investigate the things I tell you to look for. Don't believe what I say. Just look at it yourself. And you'll
73 00:13:06,900 --> 00:13:15,300 be convinced. Okay, so price was most likely going to reach this level here. And that's what I was looking for. Again, I tweeted this chart that everyone knew
74 00:13:15,300 --> 00:13:24,870 when I was looking for. And this is the optimal trade entry pattern here. Okay, so that retracement back to the 62% retracement level. And we would look for
75 00:13:24,930 --> 00:13:33,840 reasonable price objectives as delineated here. Okay, so I was looking for this one, primarily because it's a symmetrical price swing, which is, again taught in
76 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:45,330 my optimal trade entry, or OTP, primer video on my YouTube channel, inner circle trader, pull that up, it's a nice little introductory lesson to how to set your
77 00:13:45,330 --> 00:13:57,180 fib up and how to look for optimal trade entries shorts and Long's, but this is the optimal trade entry so and it would be a symmetrical price swing. So I'm
78 00:13:57,180 --> 00:14:03,960 looking for this as a downside objective, this is the initial objective, then this is the next one. Then if we get a really nice slide, we're going to look
79 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:12,990 for this objective down here at 14,400. And then even lower than that, but these are the specific levels I'd be looking for in advance beforehand. So they're not
80 00:14:12,990 --> 00:14:23,700 like he'll here this is a good level that was already hit in the past. This was all done publicly through my twitter at I underscore m underscore ICT so you're
81 00:14:23,700 --> 00:14:32,790 welcome to go and look at that. The tweets are still there you can see it's all there for public consumption. Now going back out on a higher timeframe, we can
82 00:14:32,790 --> 00:14:46,710 see how that level at 16,450 acted as a nice resistance price point. And now I'm going to bring in what I refer to as a ICT market maker sell model. Now at first
83 00:14:46,710 --> 00:14:54,780 glance, this is going to look like if you've been really studying technical analysis for a long time. It's gonna look like wycoff Okay, and admittedly,
84 00:14:54,840 --> 00:15:07,680 there is a lot of similarities to wycoff markup, and markdown That's not everything that's going on in here. I just saw that years and years and years
85 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:18,810 ago, and it helps me see something I thought I was imagining, I would see a lot of this type of formations and price action. But I do not subscribe to wycoff.
86 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:28,170 But I encourage anyone that watches my material, if you haven't looked at wycoff, study it. And then you'll see the folks that just look at me drawing
87 00:15:28,170 --> 00:15:37,050 these boxes on here. They think right away that it's, you know, it's like often only waste your time learning anything from ICT, I have amplified a lot of
88 00:15:37,050 --> 00:15:47,130 things that retail minded traders and educators have put out and regurgitated off of each other. And all I'm asking you to do is take a look at it. Okay, it's
89 00:15:47,130 --> 00:15:58,110 free. It doesn't cost anything but your time. And I promise you everything that I talked about, if it's resembling anything in other disciplines, it's not, it's
90 00:15:58,110 --> 00:16:08,910 not what it is. And I amplify or correct the shortcomings of other disciplinary approaches to trading. And wycoff was no exception there, I built a lot of
91 00:16:08,910 --> 00:16:18,780 precision around the general theme. Okay, so I guess what I'm saying here is don't focus so much on these boxes, and miss the entire point of what I'm trying
92 00:16:18,780 --> 00:16:25,260 to show. But I do cover this in my tutorials. So what I'm looking at is we had this original
93 00:16:26,700 --> 00:16:37,290 base of accumulation, okay, so we're market, we're about to rally up, okay, all my eye does is go right to this area of a trading range. Now, you can frame all
94 00:16:37,290 --> 00:16:44,160 kinds of other trading ranges out of all this stuff here. So why am I using this one, particularly, because it had the most dynamic price action movement away on
95 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:53,670 the north side of it. So this whole range here, I'd classify that as the original consolidation or accumulation phase, so long as we're being highlighted
96 00:16:53,670 --> 00:17:04,200 here, price moves out, then stage goes into another consolidation, then we have another expansion out of that consolidation. So there's a re accumulation. So in
97 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:15,600 the scope of the entire process, it's smart money accumulation of long positions, it moves higher, recalculates more long positions, goes higher,
98 00:17:15,750 --> 00:17:25,440 raking leaves more long positions here, and then distribution, right here, and then they start selling off their positions here, and then a later time, they'll
99 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:34,620 start selling off here, ultimately, to get back down below here. Now there's two types of market making. Okay, there's market making facilitates the trade
100 00:17:34,620 --> 00:17:42,810 between other traders. And there's in house market making that will also provide a means for the market maker to make a book for themselves, today making a
101 00:17:42,810 --> 00:17:52,920 profit. So they can also speculate not just facilitate trade or pair up orders between buyers and sellers. In this instance, okay, the buyers that bought in
102 00:17:52,920 --> 00:18:01,650 here, they could have sold here, and had nothing left on the position. The buyers that bought in here, could have sold out here and had nothing left in
103 00:18:01,650 --> 00:18:07,800 their position. Same thing here, they could have bought here. So here it had nothing, left them in position, there are some that hedge so they could be
104 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:17,370 selling in here, selling more here, selling more here, and then selling more here. And as it starts coming back down, they'll start buying it back, they'll
105 00:18:17,370 --> 00:18:25,140 start buying it back, and they'll start buying it back down here. So they're always in the market doing something because they're being Counterparty to other
106 00:18:25,140 --> 00:18:33,660 traders. So there's market making in that respect. So they're really not trying to make a profit, so to speak, they're just being counterparties. Okay, and
107 00:18:34,620 --> 00:18:48,840 that's the smallest scale, or I guess the opportunity that market making seeks, okay, that part of it. Market making is not trying to facilitate trade for new
108 00:18:48,840 --> 00:19:01,140 profit. But it does occur. And it does appear in trading, when I try to promote and teach in my studies is during these original consolidations in here, this is
109 00:19:01,140 --> 00:19:09,150 all smart money buying. So if we start to see consolidation in here, I know that it's going to be reaching our specific level. So I start going through the
110 00:19:09,150 --> 00:19:16,260 higher timeframe charts, to figure out what they're reaching for because they're not trading on 30 minute and five minute, one minute charts or tick charts. It's
111 00:19:16,260 --> 00:19:23,730 based on a higher time frame level. And again, before we close the video, I'll show you what this level is and why it was so important. When we start seeing
112 00:19:23,730 --> 00:19:33,780 these rallies up and consolidations rally up I know I'm in what I refer to as the ICT market maker sell model. In other words, they're ramping up or pumping
113 00:19:33,870 --> 00:19:47,070 to dump it. So everything that they bought here anything below that would be formed of a sell stop. So traders that bought here held didn't trade a stop loss
114 00:19:47,070 --> 00:19:54,780 higher held and didn't bring a stoploss off any higher held and didn't bring your stop loss any higher. Then didn't doing your adjustment for their risk
115 00:19:54,780 --> 00:20:01,560 management either. So to stop still below here, in here, there's gonna be another sell off likely and they're gonna target that level right in here. So
116 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:10,080 that's basically what it is, it's a pump reversal in slam it down to take out the long holders that we're here that we're not smart enough or astute enough to
117 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:18,660 get out here, here or ultimately here. Okay, so that's what makes the sell model, or basically a pump and dump in the grand scheme of things to keep things
118 00:20:19,290 --> 00:20:28,590 pretty retail, so you guys can understand what I'm saying. That's all it is, is just a run up just to sell off. So if we look further, we can see that the price
119 00:20:28,590 --> 00:20:39,090 eventually did hit the second level I had for a price objective, I try to screen capture it as the markets trade to the levels I call for in Twitter. And this is
120 00:20:39,180 --> 00:20:49,680 where personally be taking some partial profits here. If I were selling from up here, or up here, and you can see back on that hard timeframe, we can see that
121 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:55,680 price has now moved below this consolidation and ultimately has retail retreated back down to the top that consolidation right here.
122 00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:05,730 So you can see how price did go a little bit below their second level objective. didn't quite get down to the other objective I had in mind. But we're seeing a
123 00:21:05,730 --> 00:21:17,370 little bit of retracement, I mentioned this during the particular trading day, on the 27th of December, it was actually coming in around noon, New York time.
124 00:21:18,120 --> 00:21:26,880 And that's exactly when the opposite end of the daily range form. So this whole entire day has been down to the low should be forming between 10 o'clock in the
125 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:36,810 morning and noon, New York time. Okay, so whatever time it is in New York, it's important to know that and there's the low, I got asked by a follower on
126 00:21:36,810 --> 00:21:45,060 Twitter, what did I think was gonna happen was it going to go any lower that particular day, in my opinion was that we are put in the bulk of the volume. So
127 00:21:45,060 --> 00:21:56,580 banks, if they are in fact trading these, their their volume is done. Okay, so the range should be kept at this point. And we see that was the fact here. And
128 00:21:56,580 --> 00:22:07,140 ultimately, moving forward into the 28th, which is the time of this recording on December 2017. This is the whole entire market maker model to completion. Okay,
129 00:22:07,170 --> 00:22:15,900 I took a picture with the screen capture feature. And you can see the original consolidation to stop. So it would be below here. That's what was targeted right
130 00:22:15,900 --> 00:22:27,480 there. And you can see the Smart Money accumulation, re accumulation, Re cumulation, smart money reversal, low risk cell redistribution, ultimately
131 00:22:27,510 --> 00:22:33,990 taking us back down below the original consolidation. So the entire cycle is complete. Now, that doesn't mean that this is done doesn't mean it's not going
132 00:22:33,990 --> 00:22:43,320 to go any lower. In fact, I think it's going to go to this level down here. Personally, if a gun is held in my head, that's what I would expect. But we'll
133 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:51,510 have a lot to see what's gonna actually happen. But I've been putting these things out in public, so you can see what I'm anticipating what I'm seeing. So
134 00:22:51,510 --> 00:22:57,870 that way, it's not like I'm looking back and saying, Oh, yeah, this was something cool. But it's already happened. And it was no real element to drawing
135 00:22:57,870 --> 00:23:12,780 your attention to beforehand. So I'm looking at the Bitcoin versus the US dollar is the daily chart against this coin base. And I want to kind of draw your
136 00:23:12,780 --> 00:23:22,650 attention into the here, okay, and where we are at right now. And what we're doing in terms of price action is the reason why I felt that it was more
137 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:33,960 appropriate to anticipate a sell off at 16,450 or very close to that level. And I'll show you what that level is and why it's important. But before that, I want
138 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:48,210 to draw your attention to this high back here. Let's zoom in a little bit. Okay, so on this particular candle right here. If you look at the open high, low and
139 00:23:48,210 --> 00:24:02,940 close up here, on this candle here, the high comes in at 19,697. This candle here, it's high comes in at 19,797. Then the very next candle here and this is
140 00:24:02,940 --> 00:24:11,490 the candle I said that we would not see 20,000 and it was going to reverse and slide 2020 500 points, and they would refuse those individuals they were holding
141 00:24:11,490 --> 00:24:24,450 out for 20,000 Bitcoin. The high comes in at 19,891. If you go on Twitter and December 17 2017 on my Twitter feed, you'll see me actually outlining why this
142 00:24:24,450 --> 00:24:31,920 is the case and why I felt it was most likely going to be a market maker trap. The reason why it was going to be a trap is because we had already priced above
143 00:24:31,980 --> 00:24:43,500 the all time high back here, trading right into it just above it a little bit and I like to see that as false breakouts. Okay, everybody on Twitter, and the
144 00:24:43,500 --> 00:24:52,800 ones that you're probably listening to now, they were all excited about Bitcoin breaking out. It's going to keep going higher. Here comes 30,000 and once we get
145 00:24:52,800 --> 00:25:01,200 through 20,000 is going to just be a straight shot to 30,000 and so on. They were talking about Bitcoin 150,000 everybody Every one was talking about
146 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:11,070 Bitcoin. My wife herself, even mentioned to me, Hey, are you trading Bitcoin? Because it's really going up a lot? Well, if my wife is sitting next to me on
147 00:25:11,070 --> 00:25:20,460 the couch, and she's asking me about Bitcoin, and if I'm not in it, or if I should be in it, rather, it's time to get out. Okay, I love my wife, but she's
148 00:25:20,460 --> 00:25:29,220 not a traitor. So that means everybody knows about Bitcoin. And I shared a couple stories on my Twitter feed, I was in a grocery store, and a guy behind me
149 00:25:29,220 --> 00:25:36,540 two carts back literally told his son or assuming it was his son, you know, put the ice cream and cookies and stuff back on the shelf, because he was trying to
150 00:25:36,540 --> 00:25:46,350 save some money because he's gonna buy more Bitcoin. I even said, at the time, I was like, This is incredible, everyone's talking about Bitcoin. So if that's
151 00:25:46,350 --> 00:25:52,230 occurring, lots up here, it's done. And between that and the fact we broke up to the old
152 00:25:52,650 --> 00:26:00,690 high, and we're looking at their big benchmark at 20,000. It's just like dangling a carrot between you before, they're going to, oh, it's going to go
153 00:26:00,690 --> 00:26:11,970 higher, it's going to keep going higher. And that was the real reasons why I called the top in Bitcoin that particular. So ultimately, I did see my 2020 500
154 00:26:11,970 --> 00:26:24,690 points slide, but in the process, and ended up changing the entire market structure. So it ended up becoming over 9000 points in terms of a slide. Now,
155 00:26:24,930 --> 00:26:34,800 they're going to say this is a correction. But I see that as a crash. And I was talking about Bitcoin crashing, before this run up here. Okay. I felt that it
156 00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:44,190 was going to crash, I thought it was going to go lower. I did not want to see it trade to 20,000. On this day, or this day, based on all the elements that were
157 00:26:44,190 --> 00:26:54,120 there. I mean, the public, the street money was talking about Bitcoin. And we're staring right at a 20,000 benchmark, it never gotten there. Okay, and it traded
158 00:26:54,120 --> 00:27:02,670 aggressively lower. And then all through this right around in here, you started seeing all these stories about, you know, Bitcoin founders of this exchange, or
159 00:27:02,670 --> 00:27:13,410 that or whatever, supposedly well known individuals, pillars, if you will, of the cryptocurrency realm, we're saying they've all exited in solar,
160 00:27:13,620 --> 00:27:23,700 cryptocurrencies. And it's useless, it's distance that so we were ahead of the curve in that regard. So again, I'm not trying to beat much my chest and say,
161 00:27:23,700 --> 00:27:34,410 I'm Mr. crypto, um, because I'm not, I'm just saying that the things I know about price action, I just started applying it to this. Okay. It's not like, I
162 00:27:34,410 --> 00:27:42,930 have some secret recipe for crypto trading, because its price, it's the same thing. So if it's trading, and people are making money or losing money in it,
163 00:27:43,620 --> 00:27:52,740 the banks are involved, whether you like it or not, they are. And I know this for a fact now, because I can see how their algorithmic approach to reading and
164 00:27:52,830 --> 00:28:02,250 working in price is in price action. If they were not in the banks, my methods would not be holding up like they are. And I trade with an institutional
165 00:28:02,250 --> 00:28:10,170 perspective, I don't see, you know, retail things, there's nothing indicator based on my charts, none of that stuff appears on my charts, unless I'm drawing
166 00:28:10,170 --> 00:28:20,040 a specific contrast to how retail would see something versus how I look at it from a price action standpoint. I'm only only concerned really, about these four
167 00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:27,630 indicators up here. The open the high, the low, and the close those four indicators to me is everything you'll ever need. Because if you understand what
168 00:28:27,630 --> 00:28:34,650 the open high low and closes on one currency, if you have a barometer printed like $1 index, if you know the open high, low and close of that and contrast
169 00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:45,480 what you're trading against that you'll have all the indicators you need in terms of relative strength. So if I know that the back story is this highs been
170 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:54,780 violated, and then we rejected, we came down here and now we're consolidating what is most likely going to occur? It's probably going to go lower. So if it's
171 00:28:54,780 --> 00:29:06,540 going to go lower, what's it going to do first? Run the buy stops. That's this high right here. Okay, so this high comes in at 16 to 61. Okay, 16 to 61. Right
172 00:29:06,540 --> 00:29:16,470 before this high was broken by this run here. My eye goes right to the down closed candle right before that run out. This is what I teach is an ice breaker.
173 00:29:16,740 --> 00:29:29,370 This is a bearish breaker. So if price trades to this low at 15,700. That begins the distribution cycle of anything that was used to go long here to knock out
174 00:29:29,370 --> 00:29:36,630 the original short holders to head protective buy stops here. They started seeing some money here. They ran it up one more time. Boom, knocked those
175 00:29:36,630 --> 00:29:46,410 individuals out and started to collapse at this moment right there. This candle and you need long holders are underwater. So they're going to want to mitigate
176 00:29:46,410 --> 00:29:55,650 that in order to get out of that position. So the market will be repriced, to that level. Right back in here. You'll see it and they'll distribute there but
177 00:29:55,650 --> 00:30:03,330 also notice it's happening as this swing highs been violated as well because any Short holders here, they're going to have their step, their stop loss trail
178 00:30:03,330 --> 00:30:14,370 rainbow above this, and they take the market right above that level here. plink, there it is, and then they quickly reprice it. Now we're going to go into a
179 00:30:14,370 --> 00:30:24,900 monthly chart on a monthly chart, but a monthly perspective. And we're going to zoom in a little bit. And this is a 30 minute chart. Okay, and you can see one
180 00:30:24,900 --> 00:30:41,100 more time to make a little bit more clear. And more. So you can see this high back here. We ran right above that. And then the distribution cycle, okay. Above
181 00:30:41,100 --> 00:30:50,070 this high by stops, and then right in here, I want to take a look at this candle right there. This is the secret sauce. Okay, I'm gonna zoom in one more time, so
182 00:30:50,070 --> 00:30:50,790 you can see it.
183 00:30:53,970 --> 00:31:08,190 This candle right here. Okay, this is the last up close candle right for this big move down. So this candle, it's high as 16,654. It's low as 16,300. Okay, so
184 00:31:08,190 --> 00:31:17,520 approximately in the middle, okay, we're going to get close to around 16,500. And I want to get out a little bit before that. So 16,004 50 is what I elected
185 00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:27,360 to go with. So what this is, is an ICT bearish order block. Okay, and it's just above where the buy stocks would be, and price rallied right back up to that
186 00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:38,220 price point, rejection. Now she goes, Okay, we are originally seeing that build up of long positions right in here, a round up, re accumulation, re accumulation
187 00:31:38,370 --> 00:31:46,920 reversal, hit the brakes, they only pumped it up here, then knock out the stops here, then and only then will price be allowed to trade lower. And that's what
188 00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:55,770 we saw here. Okay. And then we have an optimal trade entry. So here and target the lows under here, which is what we seen here. And now we have another
189 00:31:55,770 --> 00:32:05,100 consolidation. Notice also just like this area with this short term high has been violated with this run here. Sell stop seven trailed on the shorts, right
190 00:32:05,100 --> 00:32:13,650 above this high, they've been knocked out, and then only then it quickly gets a ladder moving lower. Again, and here we have a swing high, it will be resting
191 00:32:13,650 --> 00:32:23,010 above that on shorts, protected by stops. Ooh, they knock those individuals out. And now and only now, is it permitted to trade lower. Okay, so we can start
192 00:32:23,010 --> 00:32:36,330 looking for objectives, lower than we've already seen. You can see the elements, everything is outlined here. everything as it was shared on Twitter. And
193 00:32:36,810 --> 00:32:48,720 ultimately, I think if we get below 13,000, we could trade to 12,009 20. But ultimately, a lot of liquidity is resting right below this fractal. So I would
194 00:32:48,720 --> 00:33:00,360 be expecting that to occur, we could see 12 800, something like that, if we get any momentum below 12,800 or going below 10,000. In fact occurs, we're going to
195 00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:10,740 be looking for 8300. And if it goes below that it will be 5000 to 6000. And anything less than that will be just Armageddon. So that's what I'd be expecting
196 00:33:10,740 --> 00:33:23,010 now what changes this whole scenario, it would need to trade back above the midpoint of this consolidation or trade basically back above 15,100. Okay, so
197 00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:38,100 anything less than 15,100 we're bearish on Bitcoin. Okay. So I kind of like one of the use this as a segue into welcoming the new crypto community that's
198 00:33:38,100 --> 00:33:51,420 building in my reader base. So I don't promise to give you a whole lot of crypto based ideas. But I have seen enough to know this. Everything that I teach that
199 00:33:51,420 --> 00:34:04,770 is selling to forex, is working in crypto, the ICT kill zones, the London New York, plumbing, close, Asia, all those things are still working as they would be
200 00:34:04,770 --> 00:34:15,810 expected. In crypto. A lot of my higher learning things also are working as well that would be taught in my mentorship. So if you have a lot of time, and you go
201 00:34:15,810 --> 00:34:25,080 through all my tutorials that can be found on my website, the answer trader.com. Again, the forum is free, you can join it'll cost you nothing. It's community
202 00:34:25,110 --> 00:34:35,400 that we're building. I only request this as Be respectful because if anyone is unruly in there or starts to troll, and they report that to me, I will disable
203 00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:44,490 your ISP so that way you won't be a member of the forum anymore. You're welcome to discuss and encourage each other with opportunities you may be seeking using
204 00:34:44,490 --> 00:34:54,300 my concepts. I am really on the sidelines, even though it seems like I'm always doing something on Twitter. I'm away from the markets generally until like the
205 00:34:54,300 --> 00:35:04,140 third week of January every year. I usually take the week before Thanksgiving off until The third week of January. And it's probably going to be closer to
206 00:35:04,470 --> 00:35:15,780 February. Before I actually do anything this year, because I spent the last 15 months with a group of traders in my first mentorship class. So it took a lot of
207 00:35:15,780 --> 00:35:26,370 STEAM Academy. So I will be opening that mentorship up again in January 2018. So if you want to go through the higher level learning stuff and be a part of a
208 00:35:26,820 --> 00:35:40,080 ongoing education group, it's $150 payable to me by way of PayPal, and that link and all that information will be shared tomorrow for those individuals that were
209 00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:48,630 signed up on the mailing list. And if you can't do it right now, and it's closer to February for you, then that's fine, because it's open enrollment every single
210 00:35:48,630 --> 00:35:48,960 month.
211 00:35:50,670 --> 00:36:01,170 There's no there's no closing. There's no end, okay, so when you subscribe to it, you pay 12 months, and $150. And you get 12 specific modules that goes
212 00:36:01,170 --> 00:36:12,570 through all of my core content. But that is not the mentorship. The mentorship is an ongoing learning experience. And I have 25 years of experience of looking
213 00:36:12,570 --> 00:36:21,210 at price studying price, knowing certain things, subtle nuances that my free tutorials will not ever have in them. So it's kind of like a private private
214 00:36:21,210 --> 00:36:28,320 community. Okay, well, we have a community, it's in my free forum. The mentorship group is things that I'll teach that I'm never going to make public,
215 00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:35,880 not on YouTube, not in Twitter, and none of that stuff. And I haven't taught everything yet. So there's so much information, I just can't do it in 12 months.
216 00:36:35,910 --> 00:36:45,270 So if that interests you, you're certainly welcome to do that after you pay 12 months, you never pay any more ever again. The total cost is 18 $100. US dollars
217 00:36:45,690 --> 00:36:53,430 payable in 12. installment payments, if you do quit, you are not permitted to rejoin. So if you're going to consider doing it, make the commitment to do the
218 00:36:53,430 --> 00:37:03,570 entire thing. And understand there's no refunds, there's an NDA, you can't teach the material, you can't tweet about the things that's called a mentorship that
219 00:37:03,570 --> 00:37:12,330 it would remove you from the group. I have removed individuals from it already. And they have paid me but they also understood and sign the terms of use in
220 00:37:12,330 --> 00:37:23,190 these agreements are long standing, they don't end. So as long as I'm operating as a mentorship, those terms of use will be there. And I don't plan on going out
221 00:37:23,190 --> 00:37:36,600 of business anytime soon. or stopping. So it's up to you decide what you want to do. But I just felt that it was a an interesting study on my personal time using
222 00:37:36,870 --> 00:37:47,250 my concepts and crypto, we've had a lot of positive feedback with the tools and concepts. So I can see why everyone is excited about using what I teach in
223 00:37:47,250 --> 00:37:57,060 forex, and futures and stocks and all that index trading all those things have elements that repeat themselves over and over again. But everything that I teach
224 00:37:57,090 --> 00:38:06,630 with forex, everything that I've done thus far and made public either by way of free tutorials and even in my mentorship, the content it's been delivered so far
225 00:38:06,630 --> 00:38:20,700 in that group. Everything works in crypto. So to me these markets are being made by banks. Okay, I know that the crypto community is like, you guys are like
226 00:38:20,730 --> 00:38:29,970 insanely faithful and committed to the cause. And you don't want anything said negative about it. And I'm not saying anything negative. Except for the fact
227 00:38:29,970 --> 00:38:38,670 that when I was 18,000 anybody buying up there was stupid, okay, and you can see the the cause and effect of all that stuff. Now. All I was relying on is the
228 00:38:38,670 --> 00:38:47,610 simple fact of understanding the markets understanding human psychology, and the fact that everybody has a buyer, and it has to reset, it has to go back lower.
229 00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:57,120 Why? Because it's designed to do that. It's designed for people not to make money. You think this is here. This is all for your benefit. It's actually not
230 00:38:57,630 --> 00:39:06,240 it's not it's a casino does anything else. Wall Street's a casino, the Forex markets a casino, and it's fine. It's okay for you to admit that it's rigged.
231 00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:14,580 Because when you understand how it's rigged, you have a advantage. You have a greater understanding what they're doing. So that way you're not led to
232 00:39:14,580 --> 00:39:23,730 slaughter. Okay, you understand what you're doing with the masses, and you can stay outside the herd. Okay, the herd is what gets fleeced the herd is what gets
233 00:39:23,730 --> 00:39:32,400 sent to the slaughter. That rogue okay animal that stays outside the herd. Okay, generally they're the predators. And that's what you can become you can be a
234 00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:44,220 predator, looking at price action and picking your spots, being a part of moves and then moving to the sidelines. I am not a proponent of hold on for dear life.
235 00:39:44,250 --> 00:39:55,110 I think that you know, these markets are gonna be moving around. They should be traded. Okay, yeah. How many times you're going to sit through you 9000 plus
236 00:39:55,320 --> 00:40:06,180 point slide, especially the individual that we're buying it like 15,000 and above. You've watched it go up, and now you're underwater. So, to me, that's not
237 00:40:06,180 --> 00:40:16,020 trading, that's gambling and hoping and praying. And I don't like to do that. So hopefully I've been, at least to some degree encouraging to the crypto community
238 00:40:16,020 --> 00:40:25,170 letting them know that you guys finally convinced me to look at it. Now I'm looking at it and I see some positive things. So are we without going lower from
239 00:40:25,170 --> 00:40:33,090 here? I think it's healthier for Bitcoin to drop. I think if it's going to go higher, longer term, it needs to wash out every one of you hold on for dear
240 00:40:33,090 --> 00:40:41,700 lifers, okay, because you if you sell it, that provides their liquidity to buy it. And the banks are really, really interested in these things. So
241 00:40:42,750 --> 00:40:53,100 think about it, like in 2000, when the stock markets crashed, okay, you know, we went lower it Well, everyone was, it's the end of the world, but look at it now.
242 00:40:53,490 --> 00:41:03,690 So we may be seeing the very same things occurring, just 10 and 20 years away, where people can look back and say, Wow, you know, we were doing things that
243 00:41:03,690 --> 00:41:14,640 were entirely brand new. And we got in real well, and even though this is kind of inflated, in terms of the pricing, if it goes below 10,000, I think that you
244 00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:23,250 know, if you have a means to do so I might entertain the idea of putting something on for a longer term and start, you know, building in positions down
245 00:41:23,250 --> 00:41:33,780 here. And as it goes higher, you do some of that stuff with the expectation of 10 to 20 years out, but not like you buying on the highs, like a lot of folks
246 00:41:33,780 --> 00:41:40,860 have been doing because they tell their brother, their cousin, you know, someone's talked about something, they shared a video or whatever. If it's been
247 00:41:40,860 --> 00:41:49,740 running up, I don't like to do that. I like to be buying it when it's dropping and has been dropping for a while. I I want to buy when it's going down and I
248 00:41:49,740 --> 00:41:59,850 want to sell as it's going higher. That's just the way banks trade. Okay, so if the banks have to do that same measure of entering and exiting, scaling in and
249 00:41:59,850 --> 00:42:09,300 scaling out, that's the mode of operation, I'm going to work with this as well. And kryptos proven to me that it's no exception in that regard. So very
250 00:42:09,300 --> 00:42:18,900 encouraging. Very, very encouraging. Do I regret anything? No, because I didn't trust the asset class. And it wasn't until I had family member actually get into
251 00:42:18,900 --> 00:42:30,570 it, which is my nephew, J for watching Hello. The the movements that he was showing me even though he doesn't have any idea what he's doing, he just went in
252 00:42:30,570 --> 00:42:39,180 there and just bought it based on his, I guess he bought into the hype, everyone else was doing it too. And fortunately enough, he was in at a time where it
253 00:42:39,180 --> 00:42:47,520 allowed him to make money. So he's still in a position of profit. But I personally have been preaching to them, take your profit, take your profit, take
254 00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:57,000 your profit and look for a better opportunity to buy in and get a core base of liquidity to work off of with a lower price not with what you got. So he hasn't
255 00:42:57,000 --> 00:43:07,770 listened to so far and he may never listen to me. But ultimately, between there in the community that I've been a part of, and had been building for a number of
256 00:43:07,890 --> 00:43:20,400 years online. They have finally got my attention in terms of crypto so there's another kid on the block in the crypto community and it's things ICT if you
257 00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:24,330 enjoyed this presentation, you can find more at the inner circle trader.com