1 | 00:00:00 --> 00:00:11 | ICT: Hello folks, welcome back. Today is September 17, 2025 okay, and tonight's |
2 | 00:00:11 --> 00:00:14 | lecture is going to be on trading FOMC, two stage delivery, all right. |
3 | 00:00:20 --> 00:00:25 | So we're looking at the NASDAQ we rolled over to December contract. In case you |
4 | 00:00:25 --> 00:00:30 | haven't noticed, the volume open interest has increased to the degree |
5 | 00:00:30 --> 00:00:37 | that December is now higher and more active. All right, so we're looking at |
6 | 00:00:37 --> 00:00:42 | the left hand side. It's the daily chart for December contract of Nasdaq futures |
7 | 00:00:42 --> 00:00:47 | here. And then over here, we have a one minute candlestick chart for the same |
8 | 00:00:47 --> 00:00:54 | Okay, and this handsome devil here, he's got his eye on you. Okay? So for the |
9 | 00:00:54 --> 00:00:58 | folks that may want to ask, no, I'm not going to remove that, because it's |
10 | 00:00:58 --> 00:01:03 | simply a matter of piracy. People take my stuff and pretend it's theirs, so |
11 | 00:01:03 --> 00:01:10 | this way there's only one of me. Okay, so the the concepts I went over last |
12 | 00:01:10 --> 00:01:18 | night, as it regards to trading all time highs, or near all time highs, is to |
13 | 00:01:18 --> 00:01:28 | constantly look at very specific price points, volume, balance, fair value |
14 | 00:01:28 --> 00:01:41 | gaps, the opens, closes and try to avoid trying to pick the top that doesn't mean |
15 | 00:01:42 --> 00:01:46 | that, once you're seasoned as a analyst, that you can't look for shorts, but they |
16 | 00:01:46 --> 00:01:53 | have to be intraday. But the larger scale price runs are going to be more |
17 | 00:01:53 --> 00:01:59 | apt to be in line with going higher, because it's impossible to pick the top |
18 | 00:01:59 --> 00:02:04 | Okay, and anyone tells you that they figured it out, they're lying all right. |
19 | 00:02:04 --> 00:02:14 | So by looking at the intraday chart here, notice that this high and this |
20 | 00:02:14 --> 00:02:21 | high are relatively equal, and if you go back to the left, a little bit more over |
21 | 00:02:21 --> 00:02:25 | here as well. And I'll counsel you to look at the open and close of |
22 | 00:02:25 --> 00:02:29 | yesterday's candle on the daily chart. Mark that out, and you'll see that |
23 | 00:02:29 --> 00:02:33 | that's very close to running out these relative Eagle highs. And that's what we |
24 | 00:02:33 --> 00:02:39 | have here at 930 we have it run up and it breaks lower, so we have a shift in |
25 | 00:02:39 --> 00:02:45 | market structure. And this is enough to indicate a shift in market structure |
26 | 00:02:45 --> 00:02:51 | bearishly. And then another swing low here, and we have relative equal lows, |
27 | 00:02:51 --> 00:02:55 | which we'll look at as minor sell side. And then we have a sell side liquidity |
28 | 00:02:55 --> 00:03:01 | pool here. Now I'm going to show you by looking at where this sell side |
29 | 00:03:01 --> 00:03:08 | liquidity pool is in deference to this range here this single up close candle |
30 | 00:03:08 --> 00:03:14 | on Monday. So we're going to look at where this is in proximity to this range |
31 | 00:03:14 --> 00:03:21 | between this candle sticks low, this candle sticks high, and why it's more |
32 | 00:03:21 --> 00:03:27 | likely to come back down into this volume imbalance and this fair value |
33 | 00:03:27 --> 00:03:36 | gap. Now, if I get anything further, I did some trades today, and I shorted in |
34 | 00:03:36 --> 00:03:42 | the morning. Here I'll go over this, and then I ordered once more in the |
35 | 00:03:42 --> 00:03:48 | afternoon at the FOMC, just using the model 2022, so it's not complicated. |
36 | 00:03:48 --> 00:03:53 | It's not gold buck. I know I have a student of mine that is insists that |
37 | 00:03:53 --> 00:03:57 | that's what it is, and he's convinced other people that's what it is, I swear |
38 | 00:03:57 --> 00:04:03 | to you in Jesus name, it's not gold buck. Okay, so if, if you want to |
39 | 00:04:03 --> 00:04:07 | believe I'm telling you something that's not true, then then run with it. Okay, |
40 | 00:04:07 --> 00:04:11 | but I'm honestly telling you what I'm doing and what I teach and what I trade |
41 | 00:04:11 --> 00:04:15 | with has absolutely nothing to do with gold buck and, no, it's not enigma. |
42 | 00:04:15 --> 00:04:23 | Okay, so buy side liquidity pool here we run up at 930 opening, and then we break |
43 | 00:04:23 --> 00:04:28 | lower. And then, you know the drill. For 2022, model, we run the FIB from the |
44 | 00:04:28 --> 00:04:32 | high to low. We look for it to trade to a premium. That means it's got to go |
45 | 00:04:32 --> 00:04:38 | above 50% ideally, you can see a convergence with the standard flagship |
46 | 00:04:38 --> 00:04:42 | pattern of my channel, which was for a long time, the optimal trade entry, |
47 | 00:04:42 --> 00:04:46 | which is simply just the three quarter pull back in a impulsive price leg like |
48 | 00:04:46 --> 00:04:51 | this, and then running up higher up into this small little inefficiency right |
49 | 00:04:51 --> 00:04:54 | there. So we're going to look at a lot of these things in a moment in greater |
50 | 00:04:54 --> 00:04:58 | detail, but for now, let's start fleshing out this lower time frame in |
51 | 00:04:58 --> 00:05:03 | relationship to that daily chart. As well. So here's the buy side liquidity |
52 | 00:05:03 --> 00:05:07 | pool, and here is the buy side and balance sell side, inefficiency, busy, |
53 | 00:05:07 --> 00:05:12 | which is a bullish fair value gap. So we always want to grade that price swing, |
54 | 00:05:13 --> 00:05:17 | but keep your eye on this candlesticks low right here. I had that noted with |
55 | 00:05:17 --> 00:05:21 | that short little trend line. That is this line right here, so that way we |
56 | 00:05:21 --> 00:05:25 | don't lose track of where we're at. And then this line right here on the daily |
57 | 00:05:25 --> 00:05:31 | chart is this level down here. So there are three blue lines on the one minute |
58 | 00:05:31 --> 00:05:35 | chart, but it's only two on the daily. So the upper one here is simply the buy, |
59 | 00:05:35 --> 00:05:43 | sell liquidity pool at 24,005 28 and a half. These lower two are in reference |
60 | 00:05:43 --> 00:05:50 | to this biombalance cell sign, efficiency. All right, so we grade it. |
61 | 00:05:50 --> 00:05:55 | So the lower quadrant, consequent encroachment midpoint, upper quadrant, |
62 | 00:05:56 --> 00:06:01 | and then levels itself that being, here's the high of the daily busy upper |
63 | 00:06:01 --> 00:06:09 | quadrant. Now it's quite encroachment midpoint, lower quadrant and the low and |
64 | 00:06:09 --> 00:06:13 | then the south side, liquidity pool here, and then the first presented fair |
65 | 00:06:13 --> 00:06:22 | value gap after 9:30am Eastern Time. So that's small little inefficiency. We'll |
66 | 00:06:22 --> 00:06:27 | zoom in in a moment. You can see why I have it outlined as I have it here. And |
67 | 00:06:27 --> 00:06:33 | then we have a smaller, minor side liquidity pool there. So running up, |
68 | 00:06:33 --> 00:06:40 | taking buy side, and then dropping down south side liquidity pool here, taken. |
69 | 00:06:40 --> 00:06:45 | And then notice what they did. They took it to this low and left that there, and |
70 | 00:06:45 --> 00:06:51 | then it rallied back up. This is classic model, 2022, when it leaves larger |
71 | 00:06:51 --> 00:06:56 | intermediate term, relative equal lows. This is a smaller, minor, relative equal |
72 | 00:06:56 --> 00:07:01 | low in relationship to that low and that low. So in other words, it goes down |
73 | 00:07:01 --> 00:07:06 | then rallies back up, this sell side liquidity pool here, with this low here |
74 | 00:07:06 --> 00:07:13 | is unfinished business. Okay, I'll have chapters in the three books coming that |
75 | 00:07:13 --> 00:07:17 | I'll touch on each volume. I'll have more to say about unfinished business. |
76 | 00:07:18 --> 00:07:23 | But the idea is, the market rallies up, leaving the sell side or sell stops here |
77 | 00:07:24 --> 00:07:29 | intact, rallying up, which is a false hope, rally for bulls, and goes up into |
78 | 00:07:29 --> 00:07:34 | first presented fair value gap, and then sells off and careens down through the |
79 | 00:07:34 --> 00:07:39 | sell sell liquidity pool and goes right to consequent encroachment of the daily |
80 | 00:07:39 --> 00:07:42 | lives on imbalance, sell side efficiency. So look at that price right |
81 | 00:07:42 --> 00:07:51 | here in the green, 24,447 and a half. That's what this is here. 24,447 and a |
82 | 00:07:51 --> 00:07:55 | half. It hits it right there, then comes right back up to the upper quadrant at |
83 | 00:07:55 --> 00:08:01 | 24,004 73 and a quarter, and then hits it dead on, right there and sells off |
84 | 00:08:01 --> 00:08:07 | once more, goes lower to the lower quadrant. These quadrants in my |
85 | 00:08:07 --> 00:08:12 | inefficiencies that I place emphasis on, from the higher time frames down lower |
86 | 00:08:12 --> 00:08:17 | time frames. I grade all of them and they're more sensitive. They're more |
87 | 00:08:17 --> 00:08:25 | accurate than things like common floor pivots simple Support and Resistance |
88 | 00:08:25 --> 00:08:31 | ideas, which is absolutely, you know, left to the device of the user. It's so |
89 | 00:08:31 --> 00:08:35 | subjective, it's absolutely ridiculous to consider that while the idea of |
90 | 00:08:35 --> 00:08:41 | support and resistance is beneficial for someone that's brand new, because you |
91 | 00:08:41 --> 00:08:45 | want to see how prices bounce at specific levels and reject at specific |
92 | 00:08:45 --> 00:08:51 | levels above it. But it's not as easy as simply saying, well, it's this high and |
93 | 00:08:51 --> 00:08:55 | that low, because soon as you try to use it and try to think like that, and the |
94 | 00:08:55 --> 00:08:58 | market is going to go railing through it. So that's why I've created these |
95 | 00:08:58 --> 00:09:02 | concepts where it's very, very specific, because it gets in sync with the |
96 | 00:09:02 --> 00:09:07 | algorithm that doesn't exist, right? So we're going to move the chart over a |
97 | 00:09:07 --> 00:09:11 | little bit in time, and you can clearly see now here See that little volume |
98 | 00:09:11 --> 00:09:17 | imbalance right there. Separation between this candle sticks open and that |
99 | 00:09:17 --> 00:09:25 | candle sticks close. So and then we have a smaller volume imbalance there as |
100 | 00:09:25 --> 00:09:29 | well. And that's why I'm not using this little segment right here, which you |
101 | 00:09:29 --> 00:09:33 | probably saw in your chart, thinking that that might be it. But you always |
102 | 00:09:33 --> 00:09:36 | have to include the volume and balance, because the algorithm is gonna refer to |
103 | 00:09:36 --> 00:09:45 | that as well. So the market drops down, sweeps into the consequence of the daily |
104 | 00:09:46 --> 00:09:51 | busy here, and then rallies back up, hits it dead, bang on the upper |
105 | 00:09:51 --> 00:09:56 | quadrant. That's this line right here. So we're looking at was looking at it |
106 | 00:09:56 --> 00:10:00 | going down to this level here, and all the move from that point down. Here. So |
107 | 00:10:00 --> 00:10:05 | in other words, from this green line down this low, this hasn't happened yet, |
108 | 00:10:05 --> 00:10:09 | right here. So we hit the upper quadrant, we break down the consequent |
109 | 00:10:09 --> 00:10:13 | encroachment. Break lower, come back to consequent encroachment as resistance. |
110 | 00:10:14 --> 00:10:19 | This is a premium sensitivity, drops lower, lower quadrant, |
111 | 00:10:21 --> 00:10:25 | lower and then comes back up. Now failure at consequent encouragement |
112 | 00:10:26 --> 00:10:32 | breaks lower. Premium sensitivity, premium sensitivity at 24,004 21 and a |
113 | 00:10:32 --> 00:10:39 | half, and then finally we get up to or down to, rather, this candle sticks high |
114 | 00:10:40 --> 00:10:46 | here, so that's this level. That blue line is this blue line here, indicating |
115 | 00:10:46 --> 00:10:50 | that that higher there. So last Friday's high, |
116 | 00:10:55 --> 00:10:59 | from this high down to that low, running a fib on it. What I'm highlighting here |
117 | 00:10:59 --> 00:11:06 | is the 79% and 62% retracement level. So this is optimal trade entry here, and it |
118 | 00:11:06 --> 00:11:10 | overlaps. Look at a body stop inside of the first presented fair value gap. But |
119 | 00:11:10 --> 00:11:16 | it's also halfway point 70.5 that little sweet spot I taught when the optimal |
120 | 00:11:16 --> 00:11:21 | trade entry hits that and breaks lower, comes right back up into a small little |
121 | 00:11:21 --> 00:11:26 | gap right in here. We'll look at that in the that in a minute, trades right up |
122 | 00:11:26 --> 00:11:32 | into it there, slams into it and it also keep cutting through. Look at that. See |
123 | 00:11:32 --> 00:11:41 | that. That's beautiful. This is venom. So we have a convergence of fair value |
124 | 00:11:41 --> 00:11:47 | gap and Venom, because we have this pass through on the upside, this pass through |
125 | 00:11:47 --> 00:11:52 | on the downside, so it can appear just like that. And it isolates all this |
126 | 00:11:52 --> 00:11:57 | price action right here, so it hits it and then moves lower. Nice little cell |
127 | 00:11:57 --> 00:12:00 | sign, imbalance, buy side and efficiency here comes right back up, hits the |
128 | 00:12:00 --> 00:12:05 | consequent encroachment, sells off, and then hits the low of that inefficiency |
129 | 00:12:05 --> 00:12:11 | that, in and of itself, is enough for the morning session. You can hold for |
130 | 00:12:11 --> 00:12:16 | lower but it's FOMC day, so you want to be very surgical about what you're |
131 | 00:12:16 --> 00:12:25 | looking for. Get in, get out. So you can see the premium sensitivity as indicated |
132 | 00:12:25 --> 00:12:31 | here, and it went much more lower than that of the sell side liquidity pools |
133 | 00:12:31 --> 00:12:35 | that we highlighted on just a one minute chart. So it's important by having the |
134 | 00:12:35 --> 00:12:41 | levels that's indicated, as I taught last night in lecture, trading with all |
135 | 00:12:41 --> 00:12:45 | time highs, or around all time highs, it's really important that you take your |
136 | 00:12:45 --> 00:12:50 | inefficiencies and you grade them and transpose those levels onto your lower |
137 | 00:12:50 --> 00:12:53 | time frames. And you know, you'll start to see setups that were just always |
138 | 00:12:53 --> 00:12:59 | there, but you never noticed them before. So now I highlighted this level |
139 | 00:12:59 --> 00:13:02 | here purple. You can see it's now discount sensitivity, and that's what |
140 | 00:13:02 --> 00:13:06 | this is here. So this purple line is this purple line here, so that way we |
141 | 00:13:06 --> 00:13:12 | can track it. And now I'm zoomed in on the daily chart over here, so we can see |
142 | 00:13:12 --> 00:13:19 | a little bit more detail. And right down here, this is a volume imbalance. And if |
143 | 00:13:20 --> 00:13:25 | you watched the trade example I did today, because I was watching it, and I |
144 | 00:13:25 --> 00:13:31 | was keyed up about the FOMC announcement activity and the volatility that was |
145 | 00:13:31 --> 00:13:37 | created. I mis called this as if as a fair value gap, and it's a volume |
146 | 00:13:37 --> 00:13:40 | imbalance, is what I was referring to. This is a fair value gap, but then this |
147 | 00:13:40 --> 00:13:46 | down here is a volume of balance. So it was quicker and easier for me to say fvg |
148 | 00:13:46 --> 00:13:52 | in the in the typing while the trade was open, but to correct myself that way, |
149 | 00:13:52 --> 00:13:57 | you're, I know some of you are probably thinking, that's not, it's a development |
150 | 00:13:57 --> 00:14:01 | balance. If that's what you thought, you're correct. But I'm, I'm out there |
151 | 00:14:01 --> 00:14:06 | going, you know, live, and it's can't, you just can't do everything perfect. |
152 | 00:14:06 --> 00:14:09 | When you're trading, you concentrate on throwing FOMC, and you're trying to |
153 | 00:14:09 --> 00:14:13 | teach and trying to type. It's a whole lot of stuff going on. It's not as easy |
154 | 00:14:13 --> 00:14:21 | as it looks, all right. So, and then we have this premium wick I graded that. So |
155 | 00:14:21 --> 00:14:26 | when you see these levels over here, this that level right there. 24,384.75 |
156 | 00:14:30 --> 00:14:35 | that's this level right here. So it's the upper quadrant of this premium wick. |
157 | 00:14:36 --> 00:14:41 | Premium wick is any wick above a candle, and this is a discount wick, any wick |
158 | 00:14:41 --> 00:14:48 | that's below the candlestick body, okay, so put that in your notes, and now I am |
159 | 00:14:48 --> 00:14:55 | grading the fair value gap here, but including the volume imbalance to that |
160 | 00:14:55 --> 00:15:02 | low. Okay, and you can't see those levels here, because it's below. Now |
161 | 00:15:02 --> 00:15:08 | scrubbing over more into the day. Now the pm session, we can see the |
162 | 00:15:08 --> 00:15:14 | sensitivity around that 24,384.75 level, which is this one here. So at this |
163 | 00:15:14 --> 00:15:19 | moment, price has done at 1245, it's trading right in here, |
164 | 00:15:21 --> 00:15:28 | just I'm sorry right here, it's right here, and it's just falling |
165 | 00:15:29 --> 00:15:33 | just above the constant encouragement level right there. And again, this |
166 | 00:15:33 --> 00:15:38 | portion of the day had not been delivered yet. So we're right about here |
167 | 00:15:38 --> 00:15:45 | at 1245 then we come back up. We find discount sensitivity here at the upper |
168 | 00:15:45 --> 00:15:52 | quadrant there. Now it's going to trade back up to this level here, that blue |
169 | 00:15:52 --> 00:15:56 | line, that's this blue line right here, and it's easy to track it by saying, |
170 | 00:15:56 --> 00:16:05 | 24,400 24,003 9024, 400 and then 390s between these two prices. So that's what |
171 | 00:16:05 --> 00:16:09 | this blue line is here. So it's how you want to be navigating. And when you're |
172 | 00:16:09 --> 00:16:14 | when you're journaling, I'm actually doing the charting all the annotations |
173 | 00:16:14 --> 00:16:19 | for you. That that's the benefit of this, this little soiree together, you |
174 | 00:16:19 --> 00:16:25 | know, going into the holidays, you're encouraged to print the PDF out or type |
175 | 00:16:25 --> 00:16:29 | over them with your additional annotations, things that are pertinent |
176 | 00:16:29 --> 00:16:33 | to you, so I leave lots of empty space. That's why I've been doing it this way, |
177 | 00:16:33 --> 00:16:38 | because it gives you room to type in here or write by hand. All this area |
178 | 00:16:38 --> 00:16:42 | over here, you can write in there and draw special attention to things that I |
179 | 00:16:42 --> 00:16:45 | may not have drawn that much attention to, but you have seen it, and it means |
180 | 00:16:45 --> 00:16:51 | something to you. All right? And then the two o'clock hour, I've delineated |
181 | 00:16:51 --> 00:16:56 | that, and I've extended the first potential fair value gap here into the |
182 | 00:16:56 --> 00:17:06 | afternoon. It's something I teach. And two o'clock is now here. Price trades up |
183 | 00:17:06 --> 00:17:13 | into the first percent of fair value gap post 2pm so the market breaks lower. We |
184 | 00:17:13 --> 00:17:17 | have a fair value gap that's formed here. We trade down into the upper |
185 | 00:17:17 --> 00:17:22 | quadrant of the fair value gap here between this candle sticks close and |
186 | 00:17:23 --> 00:17:32 | this candle sticks low that quadrant, upper quadrant level at 24,002 97 three |
187 | 00:17:32 --> 00:17:37 | quarters. That's this level right here. It trades down to it there, and then |
188 | 00:17:37 --> 00:17:41 | rallies all the way back up to this little gap right there. So again, all |
189 | 00:17:41 --> 00:17:49 | this is is high to low. Three quarter pull back optimal trade entry, fair |
190 | 00:17:49 --> 00:17:54 | value gap, model 2022, unfinished business, and then unfinished business |
191 | 00:17:54 --> 00:18:02 | down here in the volume imbalance. So the market trade up here. You watch me. |
192 | 00:18:03 --> 00:18:08 | You get stopped out on that run in here, and then it breaks lower and finally |
193 | 00:18:08 --> 00:18:12 | gets into the volume imbalance. You can find that little snippet, that little |
194 | 00:18:12 --> 00:18:18 | vignette, of the trade on my ex account, on what used to be called Twitter. It's |
195 | 00:18:18 --> 00:18:22 | sped up. It's a small little piece of it. But you actually see me not get my |
196 | 00:18:22 --> 00:18:25 | objective, and I end up getting stopped out. I share the stop loss. But you |
197 | 00:18:25 --> 00:18:30 | know, in all this price action here, I thought that we had enough to protect |
198 | 00:18:30 --> 00:18:34 | the short but it came back up, snagged and went down and got it here, and |
199 | 00:18:34 --> 00:18:40 | rallies up sensitivity here on that same level there, so once it dropped down, |
200 | 00:18:40 --> 00:18:45 | into volume and bounce on a daily chart. Here, there, then it's going to do the |
201 | 00:18:45 --> 00:18:50 | second stage of delivery of FOMC. And I'll show you in a second what that |
202 | 00:18:50 --> 00:18:56 | means. But here's 230 usually there's a another wave of price action that begins |
203 | 00:18:57 --> 00:19:03 | at 230 and whatever the high or the low is usually it'll run for it, but it |
204 | 00:19:03 --> 00:19:07 | first dropped down, sticking true to form. And the things I talked about last |
205 | 00:19:07 --> 00:19:13 | night, it went down to a severe, deep, deep, deep discount, and then that |
206 | 00:19:13 --> 00:19:18 | volume imbalance, and then rallied all the way back up, straight shot, no pull |
207 | 00:19:18 --> 00:19:28 | backs, high, high relative equal comes back down, lower quadrant that's here, |
208 | 00:19:28 --> 00:19:32 | of this fair value gap. And you're going to want to watch this video a few times, |
209 | 00:19:32 --> 00:19:37 | and also look at the charts in your own platform and compare and contrast, and |
210 | 00:19:37 --> 00:19:42 | you'll see what it's doing here. But if you don't have your your journal with |
211 | 00:19:42 --> 00:19:45 | multiple time frames like this, at minimum, you know what the daily charts |
212 | 00:19:45 --> 00:19:50 | doing and your trading time frame, you're not going to see what it is |
213 | 00:19:50 --> 00:19:56 | you're trying to learn. You're You're obscuring your ability to follow along |
214 | 00:19:56 --> 00:20:01 | with price action, but it then rallies up. You. Is consequent encroachment |
215 | 00:20:02 --> 00:20:05 | upper quadrant, and then sends it through first percent of fair value gap |
216 | 00:20:06 --> 00:20:11 | and the relative equal highs here, so that initial intraday, daily high here, |
217 | 00:20:12 --> 00:20:16 | earlier in the day, they take that out, and then we start to consolidate in |
218 | 00:20:16 --> 00:20:22 | between the quadrant levels and first presented fair value gap. This is the |
219 | 00:20:22 --> 00:20:28 | first stage delivery, where it sells off at 2pm beginning of FOMC, and then |
220 | 00:20:28 --> 00:20:32 | during the conference portion. And Paul tends to be a little bit like me. He |
221 | 00:20:32 --> 00:20:37 | likes to talk more than most people want to listen to. So it kind of like delays |
222 | 00:20:37 --> 00:20:41 | it a little bit. And then here we have it there, and then all the way back up |
223 | 00:20:42 --> 00:20:46 | there, picking out the buy side, and then consolidation. Then, basically is |
224 | 00:20:46 --> 00:20:52 | untradable. And this is the second stage here, from the low up to the buy side, |
225 | 00:20:52 --> 00:20:59 | running the high out of the day. But look at this run here, that right there. |
226 | 00:20:59 --> 00:21:02 | You wouldn't expect something like that. Had you not listened to the lecture I |
227 | 00:21:02 --> 00:21:11 | gave you last night? And for all you FX Forex freaks out there, this is the |
228 | 00:21:11 --> 00:21:16 | daily on Dollar Index. And dollar admittedly has been basically trash. |
229 | 00:21:16 --> 00:21:25 | Okay? It's unfortunate. You know? It's it's waiting for its digital version to |
230 | 00:21:25 --> 00:21:30 | be forced upon us. So what I've done here is I've watched the load get taken |
231 | 00:21:30 --> 00:21:37 | out there, and then we're retracing back up into this sell side of balance, by |
232 | 00:21:37 --> 00:21:45 | side efficiency, volume imbalance and to that candlesticks body, there's a small |
233 | 00:21:45 --> 00:21:48 | little separation between here too. So that's what I'm showing here. And the |
234 | 00:21:48 --> 00:21:51 | market trades right back up to consequent encouragement of that |
235 | 00:21:51 --> 00:21:57 | inefficiency, until we get above this and we ignore the lower half of it and |
236 | 00:21:57 --> 00:22:03 | start building PD arrays that are bullish. I'm bearish on dollar, until we |
237 | 00:22:03 --> 00:22:08 | do this very thing here, where we use this as constructive discount arrays, |
238 | 00:22:08 --> 00:22:14 | and then building new bullish discount arrays and shows price respecting and |
239 | 00:22:14 --> 00:22:19 | going higher. It starts tearing into these highs without rejection. I'm |
240 | 00:22:19 --> 00:22:24 | staying bearish on dollar. It can stay in a consolidation still, like it's been |
241 | 00:22:24 --> 00:22:29 | for months, but I'm not bullish on dollar. Let's just say it that way. But |
242 | 00:22:29 --> 00:22:35 | they took us all the way down, like this, severely at two o'clock, and then |
243 | 00:22:35 --> 00:22:39 | basically nothing that was worthwhile taking a trade on. I mean, I don't trade |
244 | 00:22:39 --> 00:22:43 | the dollar index. It's used as a barometer. It helps me determine the |
245 | 00:22:43 --> 00:22:50 | opposite direction for Euro and cable and any other dollar pair cross. And |
246 | 00:22:50 --> 00:22:57 | here's a euro. And go out to a weekly chart. And I want to say I talked about |
247 | 00:22:57 --> 00:23:01 | these levels here when I was talking about euro, but I can't remember, |
248 | 00:23:01 --> 00:23:05 | admittedly, if I was talking to my private students, or if it was something |
249 | 00:23:05 --> 00:23:11 | I said in a video or something I'd done on X but I know I talked about these two |
250 | 00:23:11 --> 00:23:18 | relative equal highs here, and I simply just don't remember where I said it. So |
251 | 00:23:18 --> 00:23:22 | I just wanted to put that out there. But it doesn't matter. This is where it went |
252 | 00:23:22 --> 00:23:30 | to. It reached up into that level there at one point, 19, 087, that's this level |
253 | 00:23:30 --> 00:23:35 | here, and it was basically a really, really tight consolidation and straight |
254 | 00:23:35 --> 00:23:41 | shot rate at two o'clock, They rammed it up there first stage and then rejection, |
255 | 00:23:41 --> 00:23:44 | after taking the relative equal highs here on the weekly chart, dropped it |
256 | 00:23:44 --> 00:23:50 | out, fell out. And then this little area right here is the only thing that I |
257 | 00:23:50 --> 00:23:56 | would have considered tradable on Euro. And all that would have been was using |
258 | 00:23:56 --> 00:24:00 | the fair value gap here just to take out that low. As soon as it would have went |
259 | 00:24:00 --> 00:24:03 | below that low, I would have been out. I would not have been holding onto it |
260 | 00:24:03 --> 00:24:07 | lower. And that's only thing I would have done with the euro dollar. Now this |
261 | 00:24:07 --> 00:24:17 | is a five minute chart, so you take that for what it's worth. Admittedly, euro |
262 | 00:24:17 --> 00:24:23 | and fiber, or I'm sorry, euro and fiber, the same thing. I'm thinking cable. I |
263 | 00:24:24 --> 00:24:30 | haven't talked about forex in a while. Little rusty, GBP, USD, or cable and |
264 | 00:24:30 --> 00:24:36 | fiber, which is euro, USD, those two currencies have been a little, little |
265 | 00:24:36 --> 00:24:39 | sloppy. I mean, if you're in a really, really smaller time frames, less than |
266 | 00:24:39 --> 00:24:44 | one minute. I mean, yeah, there's scalps there you can take. But it's just been a |
267 | 00:24:44 --> 00:24:51 | really, not very favorable, which is why I haven't talked much about it. But I |
268 | 00:24:51 --> 00:24:59 | will ring in Euro, dollar. I will talk about cable and maybe other crosses, |
269 | 00:24:59 --> 00:25:02 | maybe some exotic. Looks like the beast or something like that. Your yen? I |
270 | 00:25:02 --> 00:25:06 | don't like the yen crosses, but I know a lot of you guys are interested in |
271 | 00:25:06 --> 00:25:09 | looking at and having my opinion about them, so I'll share it when it's |
272 | 00:25:09 --> 00:25:15 | pertinent. But for right now, that's going to do it for tonight. Thank you |
273 | 00:25:22 --> 00:25:25 | for your continued interest. I hope you found this insightful tonight, and so |
274 | 00:25:25 --> 00:25:29 | I'll talk to you next time. Wish you good luck and good trading. |