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ICT YT - 2025-02-09 - Shotgun Saturday February 08 2025

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-04-03 12:11
1 00:00:00 --> 00:00:18 ICT: Hi folks, welcome back. This is a session where usually the folks that
2 00:00:18 --> 00:00:24 aren't really trying to learn anything. Leave comments, and let's say you're
3 00:00:24 --> 00:00:29 talking too much. You talk too much. That's everything. This is the talkative
4 00:00:29 --> 00:00:32 session. Okay, so that's that's what this is all about. Shotgun Saturday.
5 00:00:33 --> 00:00:39 It's where I am allowing myself to just talk organically, just whatever comes to
6 00:00:39 --> 00:00:46 mind, and kind of cover some things that are psychological, you know, that type
7 00:00:46 --> 00:00:53 of approach to, I guess, a podcast type thing where I'm talking about things I
8 00:00:53 --> 00:00:58 struggled with when I first started learning how to trade, when I teach
9 00:00:58 --> 00:01:05 things And students give me feedback that the level of appreciation for me
10 00:01:05 --> 00:01:09 covering certain things when I do these and what I've done in the past on
11 00:01:09 --> 00:01:18 Twitter and X when I was active there, in the success stories I've received
12 00:01:18 --> 00:01:24 from All of you that have eventually worked your way through a grinding pound
13 00:01:25 --> 00:01:31 consistently profitable trading. I want to first get the technical perspective
14 00:01:31 --> 00:01:38 of the NASDAQ out of the way and cover what I think is going to be pertinent
15 00:01:38 --> 00:01:46 for the coming week, also, before I get to that, and for those that you, you
16 00:01:46 --> 00:01:50 obviously, some of you know me well enough to know that this coming week is
17 00:01:50 --> 00:01:57 my anniversary, so I will have been married to my wife 24 years, but we Were
18 00:01:57 --> 00:02:07 together longer than that. So naturally, being a married man, my wife is now
19 00:02:07 --> 00:02:13 scheduling my my week to come, so meaning that Monday should be a day for
20 00:02:13 --> 00:02:18 me to be active in the telegram channel, but I can't guarantee the rest of the
21 00:02:18 --> 00:02:24 week that I will be okay. So we're gonna be looking at real estate, and I don't
22 00:02:24 --> 00:02:29 know how my schedule is going to be impacted by that. So where and how I can
23 00:02:30 --> 00:02:35 I will give you whatever I have left in time that my wife doesn't consume this
24 00:02:35 --> 00:02:41 coming week. So it is what it is, not gonna argue with her. So Monday, for
25 00:02:41 --> 00:02:47 sure, I'll call the market in the morning session, and then we'll play day
26 00:02:47 --> 00:02:51 by day the rest of the week. So with that out of the way, we're looking at a
27 00:02:51 --> 00:02:56 daily chart here for NASDAQ. And I had a couple people leave comments suggesting
28 00:02:57 --> 00:03:03 what I meant by Why is it being called difficult right now? Or why do I believe
29 00:03:03 --> 00:03:06 that the market is difficult right now? Well, it's not limited to just right
30 00:03:06 --> 00:03:09 now. It's been difficult for the last few years, really. I mean, it's been a
31 00:03:09 --> 00:03:13 whole lot more manipulation in the marketplace, a lot of back and forth,
32 00:03:13 --> 00:03:17 type price action, aggressive retracements, a lot of consolidation,
33 00:03:17 --> 00:03:23 and then you get these short, little runs that are very, very quick and
34 00:03:23 --> 00:03:28 sudden and sometimes violent, but they don't sustain themselves. They really
35 00:03:28 --> 00:03:33 just come back into the range, or they peter out real quick. They just stop.
36 00:03:33 --> 00:03:40 And it becomes very frustrating. So you can really see that encapsulated in the
37 00:03:41 --> 00:03:48 last week of December here, we had this run down that's been great, and there's
38 00:03:48 --> 00:03:59 been nice swings in that, but overall, we're stuck In this range. I'll
39 00:03:59 --> 00:04:09 highlight it. So from here there, that's the range that we're stuck in. We had
40 00:04:09 --> 00:04:13 one opportunity for the market to leave that and then we stayed inside of it
41 00:04:13 --> 00:04:20 here. Stayed inside of it here. We had several attempts to go lower, but it's
42 00:04:20 --> 00:04:29 been met with more accumulation and then staying inside that range. So because
43 00:04:29 --> 00:04:37 it's staying inside of a range that's very well defined, when the volatility
44 00:04:37 --> 00:04:44 within that range is violent, extremely violent. It makes trading difficult.
45 00:04:45 --> 00:04:49 Okay, obviously, you know, spending time with me in the last weeks, you can see
46 00:04:49 --> 00:04:57 that it's not impossible. But if it's going to be a question that you may pose
47 00:04:57 --> 00:05:00 to me, if we were sitting and talking with one another in a cafe or. Ever and
48 00:05:00 --> 00:05:04 said, Okay, Michael, in your opinion, do you think the market's been hard to
49 00:05:04 --> 00:05:11 trade in the last few months, few weeks? And admittedly, I would say yes. And
50 00:05:11 --> 00:05:17 traditionally, January's are typically like that, which is why I don't usually
51 00:05:17 --> 00:05:23 like to do anything in the first month of the year. Now, I'll, I'll paper
52 00:05:23 --> 00:05:28 trade. You know, I'll do demo trades, I'll tapered you. I'll do a lot of stuff
53 00:05:28 --> 00:05:34 in January's price action, but I'm not actively trying to place real money bets
54 00:05:34 --> 00:05:39 on that price action, because I want to get a feel for or connect, get in sync
55 00:05:39 --> 00:05:45 with the marketplace in the month of January. Usually it's the second week of
56 00:05:45 --> 00:05:49 February that I begin, and I start trading with, you know, live funds, and
57 00:05:50 --> 00:05:58 I work towards whatever I'm aiming for, for that that year, you may have had an
58 00:05:58 --> 00:06:04 easy January. Maybe you were profitable, okay? Or because social media really
59 00:06:04 --> 00:06:08 inspires these types of things, maybe you found your way into profitability.
60 00:06:08 --> 00:06:14 But if honesty was really allowed to come forth, you did it by luck. And then
61 00:06:14 --> 00:06:19 now, because you have been profitable in January, you want to build it up larger
62 00:06:19 --> 00:06:25 than it really is, so we'll see, you know, we'll see, for the folks that you
63 00:06:25 --> 00:06:29 know feel that way, you know, at the end of the year, because there's this is
64 00:06:29 --> 00:06:35 going to be a very challenging year, I know that going into it, because there's
65 00:06:35 --> 00:06:44 so many things that, You know, the tariffs that are being placed on us by
66 00:06:44 --> 00:06:49 other countries, and what we're trying to do to other countries here really is
67 00:06:49 --> 00:06:54 going to cause people to have to spend more or do without, and that's not going
68 00:06:54 --> 00:06:59 to be stimulating for the economy, and that's going to be impactful in Ways
69 00:06:59 --> 00:07:04 that much of us don't really fully understand, and it's going to find its
70 00:07:04 --> 00:07:09 way in the markets, and it's going to find its way in the trading. And I think
71 00:07:09 --> 00:07:17 that you're seeing a lot of that here, where the market's being held in that
72 00:07:17 --> 00:07:24 consolidation, and it's allowing a lot of selling interest and a lot of buying
73 00:07:24 --> 00:07:31 interest outside that shaded area. So because I'm not a breakout trader, I
74 00:07:31 --> 00:07:36 don't require the market to break out. Okay, I can trade inside the range. You
75 00:07:36 --> 00:07:40 have to strip it down into very generic things like, what was the previous day's
76 00:07:40 --> 00:07:45 high, what was the previous day's low? What was the previous session high like?
77 00:07:45 --> 00:07:48 For instance, if you're going to trade the pm session in the afternoon for next
78 00:07:48 --> 00:07:53 features, what was the morning High, Low? What's the equilibrium of that
79 00:07:53 --> 00:08:01 range, halfway point and what are the new day opening gaps in the last five
80 00:08:01 --> 00:08:07 days. What is the new week opening gap for the last five weeks? Those levels
81 00:08:07 --> 00:08:12 are extremely important, and the market tends to go back to them because they're
82 00:08:12 --> 00:08:17 they're actual value levels. Okay? Because the gap that was created there,
83 00:08:17 --> 00:08:22 it's going to be referred to multiple times, not just simply, because it goes
84 00:08:22 --> 00:08:29 back to it and fills the numbers. We don't forget about it. So inside this
85 00:08:29 --> 00:08:35 range, if you're not nimble, if you're not looking for very easy, low hanging
86 00:08:35 --> 00:08:39 fruit objectives, you can get caught offside. That means you're on the wrong
87 00:08:39 --> 00:08:43 side of the market. And many times you'll force yourself to hold onto a
88 00:08:43 --> 00:08:48 trade. It probably isn't all that great, because you're wrestling with
89 00:08:48 --> 00:08:52 uncertainty and you've already committed and you're into a trade now. So
90 00:08:52 --> 00:08:58 naturally, nobody likes to lose nobody likes to close a trade unprofitably, and
91 00:08:58 --> 00:09:03 to close a trade that feels like it was a good idea when you first got into it,
92 00:09:03 --> 00:09:06 and then after you've been in it for five or 10 minutes, you feel that
93 00:09:08 --> 00:09:13 interest, that that confidence that you initially had waning. It's, it's it's
94 00:09:13 --> 00:09:18 falling away. But then you start wrestling internally about, hey, this
95 00:09:18 --> 00:09:23 is, this is quitting if I get out, you know, I'm not sticking to my plan. Well,
96 00:09:23 --> 00:09:29 you have to build in some measure of expectation for periods when you do what
97 00:09:29 --> 00:09:37 a human does. Do things wrong. And as a consistently profitable, professionally
98 00:09:37 --> 00:09:43 minded trader, you have to give yourself permission to abort when you think that
99 00:09:43 --> 00:09:49 what you got into the trade for initially, when that's no longer valid
100 00:09:49 --> 00:09:53 or you're beginning to question it, the best thing you can do in this kind of
101 00:09:53 --> 00:10:01 environment is pull the plug on it, because at any given moment. Something
102 00:10:01 --> 00:10:06 could pop off geopolitically and cause these markets to run just like that, and
103 00:10:06 --> 00:10:09 your little account will be smoked.
104 00:10:11 --> 00:10:16 Have such a degree of drawdown, it will cause you to want to go into that loser
105 00:10:16 --> 00:10:20 cycle trying to get it back, try to get it back when these market environments
106 00:10:20 --> 00:10:27 stuck in a range like this amplifies greatly, exponentially the level of
107 00:10:27 --> 00:10:31 difficulty it is for a new trader. Now, when you compound that with an impulsive
108 00:10:31 --> 00:10:37 personality, which most people do have, that as especially males, young males,
109 00:10:38 --> 00:10:43 they feel that they're more forbidden bull than they really are. They pretend
110 00:10:43 --> 00:10:46 that they're far better as a trader. And I did all these things too, so don't
111 00:10:46 --> 00:10:51 think I'm talking down to anyone. I did the same things when I was younger, but
112 00:10:51 --> 00:10:57 you have to be very careful and have to guard yourself. Don't leave. Don't let
113 00:10:57 --> 00:11:00 yourself have these vain imaginations that you're going to be able to walk out
114 00:11:01 --> 00:11:07 here and just own the market when it's doing things like this. Now I've shared
115 00:11:08 --> 00:11:12 real time analysis, I've shared executions, and I'm sure some of you
116 00:11:12 --> 00:11:17 were probably impressed with that. I'm not impressed with that. Okay, I'm not
117 00:11:17 --> 00:11:21 impressed with it at all, because I know that the conditions are holding back my
118 00:11:21 --> 00:11:28 trading, so I have to be very, very selective, very nimble, and the types of
119 00:11:28 --> 00:11:32 trades that I'm more comfortable holding for, I'm not comfortable holding right
120 00:11:32 --> 00:11:37 now, because there's a lot of manual intervention. That means what the market
121 00:11:37 --> 00:11:43 would generally do where it's very fluid and it's allowed to behave in a manner
122 00:11:43 --> 00:11:49 that's low resistance. It's not being allowed to do that. It's being
123 00:11:49 --> 00:11:55 strangled, it's being held. And when we can identify these types of market
124 00:11:55 --> 00:12:00 conditions, we don't look at that and say, well, the moves aren't going to be
125 00:12:00 --> 00:12:04 that great, so I'll just trade bigger positions to make up the difference.
126 00:12:05 --> 00:12:12 That is trader suicide. You're literally euthanizing the future, profitable,
127 00:12:12 --> 00:12:17 consistent trader in yourself by adopting that mindset, because what
128 00:12:17 --> 00:12:28 you're trying to do is compensate versus allowing yourself to evolve, allowing
129 00:12:28 --> 00:12:33 yourself to acclimate yourself to the present market conditions and sizing
130 00:12:33 --> 00:12:39 down, lowering your measure of frequency and trade, lower your expectations of
131 00:12:39 --> 00:12:44 what you expect to get from the trade those days where you're getting these
132 00:12:44 --> 00:12:51 big, Blockbuster types of moves, we will have periods of that this year. I
133 00:12:51 --> 00:12:57 believe in May, June, going into July, we're probably going to have amazing
134 00:12:58 --> 00:13:03 volatility. May start as early as the last week of March. But typically around
135 00:13:03 --> 00:13:07 mid April going into May. There's just a wonderful period of time where the
136 00:13:07 --> 00:13:15 market just seems very easy to trade. And then the second part is in fall. So
137 00:13:15 --> 00:13:19 usually the last week or so of August. It can be as early as that, but
138 00:13:19 --> 00:13:25 generally September, October, November, in the first two weeks of December, we
139 00:13:25 --> 00:13:31 have really nice volatility. That's clean price action. So if there's ever
140 00:13:31 --> 00:13:39 been a year where you've been wanting to be careful, conservative, not over
141 00:13:39 --> 00:13:43 leveraging, not trying to be a cowboy or a cowgirl. You're not trying to get on
142 00:13:43 --> 00:13:47 this this market and treat it like a bull or a wild mustang and ride it for
143 00:13:47 --> 00:13:52 all it's worth, because it may buck you off and you may fall and hurt yourself.
144 00:13:52 --> 00:13:58 You may not be able to continue the rest of the year psychologically, because it
145 00:13:58 --> 00:14:02 will cause you to have emotional, and psychological and financial damage to
146 00:14:02 --> 00:14:06 the degree that will make you second guess every single trade you take after
147 00:14:06 --> 00:14:13 that. So as an educator, I'm trying to be as responsible as I possibly can and
148 00:14:13 --> 00:14:23 reminding you all that we are in very, very troubled waters. So as a commodity
149 00:14:23 --> 00:14:29 trader, that is a wonderful condition, because that means there's going to be
150 00:14:29 --> 00:14:35 big moves coming. Look at coffee. We'll look at coffee in a minute, but coffee
151 00:14:35 --> 00:14:39 prices have gone through the roof. Cocoa. I talked about Coco two years
152 00:14:39 --> 00:14:45 ago. I said it's likely to go up, and it has created a bull market that rivals
153 00:14:46 --> 00:14:55 the velocity of even Bitcoin coffees doing very similar things. When you have
154 00:14:55 --> 00:15:00 tariffs, when you have all these trade wars going on, you. Yeah, look at how
155 00:15:00 --> 00:15:05 it's been for you at grocery store, expensive, isn't it? It's extremely
156 00:15:05 --> 00:15:13 expensive. And that pain at the cashier when you're paying for your goods,
157 00:15:14 --> 00:15:18 you're remembering that some of you probably are talking about it
158 00:15:18 --> 00:15:21 constantly, complaining. Maybe complain to yourself, maybe complain to your co
159 00:15:21 --> 00:15:32 workers, your friends. And that builds and it builds and builds, and all of a
160 00:15:32 --> 00:15:36 sudden you feel like you have to be doing things recklessly just to get out
161 00:15:36 --> 00:15:41 of that when it's not going to leave us anytime soon. In fact, I expect things
162 00:15:41 --> 00:15:48 to get even more expensive. So that's not an invitation for us to be wild and
163 00:15:48 --> 00:15:53 risk at all just to see if we can get a big win, to get us through that hump
164 00:15:53 --> 00:16:02 right now, to get us through making our ends meet. These are the times where you
165 00:16:02 --> 00:16:07 have to be very sober minded, and you have to slow your role, trying to be
166 00:16:07 --> 00:16:11 very responsible with what you're given. In terms of the trading account,
167 00:16:12 --> 00:16:15 whatever account it is, whatever equity size it is, you have to guard it,
168 00:16:16 --> 00:16:22 because it's very, very easy to lose it in these types of conditions, and to
169 00:16:22 --> 00:16:25 lose it when you're just trying to over leverage because you're feeling the
170 00:16:25 --> 00:16:30 pinch of the everyday life being expensive, or the uncertainty of what
171 00:16:30 --> 00:16:35 what's going to come down the pike later on. I think we're gonna have a very wild
172 00:16:36 --> 00:16:40 summer. I believe it's gonna be a violent summer, not just in the markets,
173 00:16:40 --> 00:16:46 but I believe it's going to be violent in the streets, and people are going to
174 00:16:47 --> 00:16:51 pop off. They're going to just do crazy stuff. And you don't want to be doing
175 00:16:51 --> 00:16:55 that in your trading accounts. You don't want to be risking it just because you
176 00:16:55 --> 00:17:01 can afford the new market account to be reset at your prop firm, if that's how
177 00:17:01 --> 00:17:06 you trade, because largely, that's most of what everybody's doing. Now it's
178 00:17:06 --> 00:17:10 easier to do the lottery ticket, prop firm stuff, but they keep changing the
179 00:17:10 --> 00:17:14 rules. They keep making it more difficult. They keep moving the goal
180 00:17:14 --> 00:17:18 posts saying you can't do this, you can't make more money. You have to be
181 00:17:18 --> 00:17:22 able to do this. You have to be able to do that when trading in itself is about
182 00:17:22 --> 00:17:26 being profitable, and if you have a model that works well, there are times
183 00:17:26 --> 00:17:32 when you want to push that model's edge, and there's times when you don't, and
184 00:17:32 --> 00:17:36 prop firms are never going to let you push that edge when it's more
185 00:17:37 --> 00:17:41 appropriate to do so for your Model and your present understanding about the
186 00:17:41 --> 00:17:47 marketplace, but right now, even at the highest tier of my understanding of
187 00:17:47 --> 00:17:53 price action, I would still not push with the largest level of leverage I
188 00:17:53 --> 00:18:01 could use in this present art and condition. Wouldn't do it. Because you
189 00:18:01 --> 00:18:06 might be asking, why not? You spit it out. What do you would you afraid of?
190 00:18:06 --> 00:18:12 Michael, I am expecting a black swan event. I kind of built this up in you
191 00:18:12 --> 00:18:16 guys over the last few years when I was talking about it, but I'm not going to
192 00:18:16 --> 00:18:19 go into great detail, but you understand exactly what I'm talking about if you
193 00:18:19 --> 00:18:24 were listening to me for a long period of time, and when I used to do Twitter
194 00:18:24 --> 00:18:31 spaces, before it became X, and what's very forthcoming, I explained what I
195 00:18:31 --> 00:18:37 viewed, in my opinion, was likely to occur, and we're seeing it, you know,
196 00:18:37 --> 00:18:41 we're seeing all that stuff, and It's going to be very impactful to the
197 00:18:41 --> 00:18:48 marketplace. And I don't say these things. That's how to worry you. I say
198 00:18:48 --> 00:18:54 them because I want you to be aware that it's going to cause the market's
199 00:18:54 --> 00:19:01 influence over people, to force the weaker person, the weaker trader, the
200 00:19:01 --> 00:19:10 less responsible, the less rule based, critical mind to do things recklessly
201 00:19:10 --> 00:19:17 and to gamble, and right now doing extremely large trade sizes, insisting
202 00:19:17 --> 00:19:24 On big payouts, big wins, is a Gambler's mentality, and that's what I'm trying to
203 00:19:24 --> 00:19:29 avoid. You know, in you as a student, because I don't want you to fall victim
204 00:19:29 --> 00:19:33 to your own ignorance, because it's very easy to talk yourself into it's going to
205 00:19:33 --> 00:19:39 happen. It's going to happen. I watched a gentleman that he really isn't all
206 00:19:39 --> 00:19:43 that well known. I don't believe and apologize if it sounds condescending,
207 00:19:43 --> 00:19:47 because I just, I don't, I don't think he's a well named, well known, rather
208 00:19:48 --> 00:19:54 individual, but he tends to be somewhat of a gambler, and he live streams
209 00:19:54 --> 00:20:03 sometimes, I guess. And he had a position on I. When, in my opinion, he
210 00:20:03 --> 00:20:07 was more inspired to do it because he saw the outside influence of other
211 00:20:07 --> 00:20:08 people talking about what he was doing,
212 00:20:10 --> 00:20:15 and he adopted this, well, I'm going to do it because everybody else thinks I
213 00:20:15 --> 00:20:21 shouldn't and I can't, and that's this climate's strength. That's the weapon
214 00:20:21 --> 00:20:28 that this type of market condition uses on weaker minded, less informed,
215 00:20:29 --> 00:20:38 undisciplined, impulsive, impulsive traders slash gamblers. They will
216 00:20:38 --> 00:20:42 recklessly plunge ahead just because they want to be able to feel good about
217 00:20:42 --> 00:20:45 themselves, be able to show it in the other people's face, to doubt them. Look
218 00:20:45 --> 00:20:50 what I did. You said I couldn't do it. Look at this. Ha. Let's go. Let's go.
219 00:20:50 --> 00:20:55 You don't want to be doing those types of things in this climate. Don't let
220 00:20:55 --> 00:21:01 anybody influence you. Nobody even me. I'm trying to be a voice of reason when
221 00:21:01 --> 00:21:07 I'm talking to you in these chuck on Saturdays, it's me trying to counsel you
222 00:21:07 --> 00:21:11 through the voice of reason. I'm never telling you to trade with real money.
223 00:21:11 --> 00:21:15 I'm never telling you to push the envelope in terms of leverage or over
224 00:21:15 --> 00:21:20 trading. I'm actually saying the opposite, and I'm saying go down to one
225 00:21:20 --> 00:21:27 contract go down to one trade per day, and be content with that, until we leave
226 00:21:27 --> 00:21:32 this range here. And I personally don't care what side it leaves. It could go
227 00:21:32 --> 00:21:36 higher, it can go lower. I don't care. But as long as we're inside this range,
228 00:21:36 --> 00:21:40 it's going to just hammer back and forth, bang around, and the ranges are
229 00:21:40 --> 00:21:47 going to be ridiculous. They're going to be one impulsive run. Then it stays in
230 00:21:47 --> 00:21:53 the either upper half or the lower half of the range that was defined. And you
231 00:21:53 --> 00:21:58 have these weird wiki days, and you miss the one good opportunity. You missed the
232 00:21:58 --> 00:22:03 real, you know, real trade for that day. And what I've done is, is I've adopted
233 00:22:03 --> 00:22:10 this mindset that I'm going to look for the setup, either pre market or in the
234 00:22:10 --> 00:22:13 opening range. I'll look for the first percent of fair value gap, and then I'll
235 00:22:13 --> 00:22:18 use that with a bias, and I get a piece of it, and that's it. I'm not demanding
236 00:22:18 --> 00:22:26 that I get all of it. So here I am. I'm 33 years experience into this, and I'm
237 00:22:26 --> 00:22:31 telling you, I'm lowering my perspective. I'm lowering my
238 00:22:34 --> 00:22:41 expectations for the best case scenario. Normally, when we're not in a range in
239 00:22:41 --> 00:22:46 the market like this, I have a little bit wider range of opportunity. I always
240 00:22:46 --> 00:22:49 have, like, a best case scenario, no matter when I trade and how I trade, I
241 00:22:49 --> 00:22:55 always have the best case scenario if I'm right at all levels of correctness,
242 00:22:56 --> 00:23:00 and it really takes off in my long or really takes off in my short what is the
243 00:23:00 --> 00:23:05 best case scenario that I could ever expect for that trade to pay out? That's
244 00:23:05 --> 00:23:10 usually where I'll put my my limit order in. But I'm not demanding that level be
245 00:23:10 --> 00:23:15 hit, for me to be profitable. I'm taking something off at logical levels, either
246 00:23:15 --> 00:23:19 an imbalance that's opposed to my trade direction. In other words, if I'm long,
247 00:23:19 --> 00:23:25 I'm looking for bearish fair value gap. Once it fills the number on it, I might
248 00:23:25 --> 00:23:31 take a partial there. Or if I see a old bearish fair value gap when I'm long,
249 00:23:32 --> 00:23:35 and then it becomes an inversion fair value gap the next short term high,
250 00:23:35 --> 00:23:40 whether it's buy side, they're not partial there. So I'm already building
251 00:23:40 --> 00:23:46 in areas, even before I put the stop loss and enter the trade, I already know
252 00:23:46 --> 00:23:50 where I'm going to reach for to potentially take something off and
253 00:23:50 --> 00:23:56 secure something in terms of a profit. Are you doing that presently? Have you
254 00:23:56 --> 00:24:00 done it in the past? Like that? Because that's a sound, principally oriented,
255 00:24:00 --> 00:24:09 rule based trader, that's someone that has the ability to plan correctly a
256 00:24:09 --> 00:24:17 trade, and then having that plan and then executing on it is excellence in
257 00:24:17 --> 00:24:25 execution, and that's what You should be striving to do. You want your trading to
258 00:24:25 --> 00:24:30 be so refined, it doesn't matter how much you're making per trade, because if
259 00:24:30 --> 00:24:34 you refine your model, and you refine your trading edge, you get to the point
260 00:24:34 --> 00:24:39 where you're consistently able to see, I know there's going to be a setup in the
261 00:24:39 --> 00:24:44 coming hour, in the next three hours for this morning session or in the afternoon
262 00:24:44 --> 00:24:47 session. You know there's a setup coming. You know what it's likely to
263 00:24:47 --> 00:24:51 reach for because of your experience. You know how they're going to target
264 00:24:51 --> 00:24:58 that liquidity above or below. And you very selectively look for your entries,
265 00:24:58 --> 00:25:04 and you place a very. A realistic stop loss, not opening yourself up to wider
266 00:25:04 --> 00:25:10 risk than it's necessary, but then also not demanding that it's so small and
267 00:25:10 --> 00:25:16 thin that you want to be able to impress everybody online because you had a one
268 00:25:16 --> 00:25:21 handle stop loss. The volatility in the market right now is extremely, extremely
269 00:25:21 --> 00:25:28 high. So I have to pick my shots very carefully, very, very carefully, and I
270 00:25:28 --> 00:25:33 don't care what the final outcome is. I'm more concerned about am I following
271 00:25:33 --> 00:25:38 my rule based ideas, the principles I have behind my models, and I'm being
272 00:25:38 --> 00:25:43 very diligent about staying within those parameters, because left to my own
273 00:25:43 --> 00:25:48 devices as a human being, you know, I could, I could get wrapped up in
274 00:25:48 --> 00:25:54 believing that I'm going to outperform the current market condition, and then I
275 00:25:54 --> 00:25:59 would incur losses, draw down, and then I would feel demoralized, because it
276 00:25:59 --> 00:26:06 goes against what I've trained myself to observe in my own actions, and what the
277 00:26:06 --> 00:26:10 market is typically, usually doing this time of year and when it's in these
278 00:26:10 --> 00:26:15 environments like this. So in closing, because I don't want this one to be
279 00:26:15 --> 00:26:19 long, and there's some of you are hissing ammonia, come on, I like the
280 00:26:19 --> 00:26:23 four hour one. We won't ever see a four hour one anymore. Okay, I don't have it
281 00:26:23 --> 00:26:28 in the tank anymore, but we have these relative equal highs I mentioned on on
282 00:26:28 --> 00:26:31 time and trades, which, again, congratulations on your 100,000
283 00:26:31 --> 00:26:41 subscriber. Look forward to your unboxing the January 22 I mentioned in
284 00:26:41 --> 00:26:46 her live stream to note that because that high with this high here, those
285 00:26:46 --> 00:26:51 are, those are relative equal highs there. So it's a very obvious buy side
286 00:26:51 --> 00:26:57 liquidity pool daily chart based there, we've been working with this gap here a
287 00:26:57 --> 00:27:04 couple different times. Now I'm not convinced that they're done pumping up.
288 00:27:05 --> 00:27:10 I think that's too clean. So even if it takes it higher after going above those
289 00:27:10 --> 00:27:17 highs, or if they take it above those highs and then that tops the market, I'm
290 00:27:17 --> 00:27:22 still, you know, I think these highs are suspect. Now I'm willing to be wrong.
291 00:27:22 --> 00:27:28 It's okay, but right now, I'm not buying that this was all there was to it okay,
292 00:27:28 --> 00:27:32 because really, we're just working this gap. So I just wanted to sit with you
293 00:27:32 --> 00:27:37 for a little while this morning and kind of be a voice of reason. Just remind you
294 00:27:37 --> 00:27:45 that there are extremely high risks, and running into them, you know, with your
295 00:27:45 --> 00:27:51 sword out, throwing your you your shield to the side, thing, it's going to be me
296 00:27:51 --> 00:27:55 swinging, hacking and taking down the marketplace. It's not like, like, that's
297 00:27:55 --> 00:28:03 going to be successful doing that. Be selective, be patient and demand, high
298 00:28:03 --> 00:28:08 probability setups, very high quality setups too, and you'll probably do
299 00:28:08 --> 00:28:13 better going into this year. That's all I got for you. Today. I will touch base
300 00:28:13 --> 00:28:17 with you, Lord willing, on Monday morning in the telegram channel, and I
301 00:28:17 --> 00:28:20 wish you all very pleasant weekend, until I'll talk to you, then be safe.
302 00:28:20 --> 00:28:21 You.