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ICT YT - 2025-02-05 - 2025 Lecture Series - SMC Forex Review 02-04-2025

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-04-03 12:10
1 00:00:32 --> 00:00:39 ICT: Welcome back, folks. So today is Tuesday, February the fourth, 2025 we're
2 00:00:39 --> 00:00:45 gonna be doing a 4x Review, and I've already done this now I'm doing it a
3 00:00:45 --> 00:00:51 second time. Feels like nostalgic memories is flooding back all the times
4 00:00:51 --> 00:00:55 I used to do these 4x reviews and lectures and teachings and whatnot,
5 00:00:55 --> 00:01:00 they'd be very, very long, and then I'd get to the editing section or phase of
6 00:01:00 --> 00:01:05 the video production and realize that my microphone was unplugged or on mute, and
7 00:01:05 --> 00:01:10 that's exactly what just took place moments ago. So this is the second time
8 00:01:10 --> 00:01:14 I'm doing this. So if I didn't love what I was doing, I certainly wouldn't be
9 00:01:14 --> 00:01:20 doing it to say it that way. So we're looking at the dollar index here, and if
10 00:01:20 --> 00:01:25 you take a look in the upper left hand corner, it is denoting that we are
11 00:01:25 --> 00:01:29 looking at a weekly chart. Okay, so Dollar index on the weekly chart. Take
12 00:01:29 --> 00:01:37 your attention up to this candlestick right here, that discount wick, when
13 00:01:37 --> 00:01:45 price is below, it becomes a premium array, or premium wick. Notice the red
14 00:01:45 --> 00:01:47 level here. That's consequent encroachment, because wicks we treat
15 00:01:47 --> 00:01:55 just like gaps. Okay, so note that level here. It's at one, 10.143 and then note
16 00:01:55 --> 00:02:01 this fair value gap right here. I'm denoting that as a potential inversion
17 00:02:01 --> 00:02:06 fair value gap. So should price trade lower on a daily chart? If we go below
18 00:02:06 --> 00:02:11 that, come back up in targeting minor sell side there. If it were to break
19 00:02:11 --> 00:02:14 below it, close and then start a new candle, trade up into it and then
20 00:02:14 --> 00:02:19 ignore, or, let's say this way, avoid trading back in the upper half once
21 00:02:19 --> 00:02:24 leading below it. That's how we set the stage for inversion fair value gap
22 00:02:24 --> 00:02:27 that's bearish. So it starts with the buy side and balance cell sign
23 00:02:27 --> 00:02:33 efficiency, but then changes its characteristic to then looking for it to
24 00:02:33 --> 00:02:40 act as a premium array. Okay? So it's reversing its role. But not only that,
25 00:02:40 --> 00:02:46 it's qualified by not seeing price go back in the upper half. Now it can wick
26 00:02:46 --> 00:02:50 up into it, but we don't ever want to see the bodies lay in the upper half
27 00:02:50 --> 00:02:55 once it leads it. If you see that, then it's probably not going to be a valid
28 00:02:55 --> 00:02:58 inversion fair value gap. Now, one of the things you can do for your notes
29 00:02:58 --> 00:03:02 when you see this form note the time frame that it's forming on. So if we see
30 00:03:02 --> 00:03:07 price go below, it come back up in and avoid trading an upper half, and then it
31 00:03:07 --> 00:03:12 displaces once. You can use the lower time frame from like, for instance,
32 00:03:12 --> 00:03:15 we're looking at the daily chart, we can go to a four hour or one hour chart, and
33 00:03:15 --> 00:03:20 the very next fair value gap that would be bearish, that would be a really good
34 00:03:20 --> 00:03:24 high probability setup to take us down into the next discount array. In this
35 00:03:24 --> 00:03:28 case, it would be this low with sell aside and the fair value gap over here.
36 00:03:28 --> 00:03:34 So we have two discount arrays right there and an order block. See that. So
37 00:03:34 --> 00:03:39 there's three specific heat arrays that are converging around there. Now this is
38 00:03:39 --> 00:03:43 a little bit more intermediate term targets. So I know a lot of you in the
39 00:03:43 --> 00:03:48 comment section say, can you talk about things a little bit higher time frame?
40 00:03:48 --> 00:03:54 Well, I don't swing trade in current market environments. And when we start
41 00:03:54 --> 00:03:59 talking about commodities, you'll start seeing a little bit further time frames.
42 00:03:59 --> 00:04:05 You know that hold out with analysis beyond just a few hours intraday, I'm
43 00:04:06 --> 00:04:13 predominantly a day trader, and index futures is my my thing. So when we're
44 00:04:13 --> 00:04:15 doing the Forex reviews, we'll be working on these higher Time Frame
45 00:04:15 --> 00:04:21 charts. And I believe the majority of my audience is actually still forex traders
46 00:04:21 --> 00:04:25 at heart, because every time I put a video up, if it's just index futures,
47 00:04:25 --> 00:04:30 you know, I get about, you know, a third of my normal viewership. But if I do
48 00:04:30 --> 00:04:35 anything with Forex, and we'll test it tonight with the with the click bait
49 00:04:35 --> 00:04:40 title, right? But it's all Forex in this video, there's a little bit more fevered
50 00:04:40 --> 00:04:45 interest in what I'm talking about when it's Forex, and I get it, but I'm
51 00:04:45 --> 00:04:50 reminding you that I'm not actively trading Forex anymore, but this is a
52 00:04:50 --> 00:04:54 very short term target and more intermediate term here. What changes
53 00:04:54 --> 00:04:59 that if we go back above the consequent encroachment of this WIC on a closing
54 00:04:59 --> 00:05:04 basis. Because these ideas are going to be put to the sideline for the near term
55 00:05:07 --> 00:05:11 hourly chart, for the dollar index. You can see we showed up in that consequent
56 00:05:11 --> 00:05:16 encroachment of that wick on the weekly chart. And then the upper, I'm sorry,
57 00:05:16 --> 00:05:23 the lower quadrant of that wick, which is a 25 level, and then we displace
58 00:05:23 --> 00:05:30 lower, invert. I'm sorry, institutional order flow entry drill here trades
59 00:05:30 --> 00:05:34 lower. It comes back up into the daily bearish order block. And I didn't
60 00:05:34 --> 00:05:39 mention that. Let me go back up. I apologize this last up close candle
61 00:05:39 --> 00:05:43 here, that's a bearish order block. More specifically, it's a propulsion block,
62 00:05:44 --> 00:05:48 because we have this mess in here. So that's why I'm focusing primarily on
63 00:05:48 --> 00:05:54 that one, because there's two volume imbalance in here, and this last up
64 00:05:54 --> 00:06:01 close candle, it's trading up into that, but it's not going beyond half of it. So
65 00:06:01 --> 00:06:08 look at month four's content of my ICT private mentorship video against it's
66 00:06:08 --> 00:06:13 month four's content. You can see it in the playlist and I go through the basic
67 00:06:13 --> 00:06:17 PD arrays. That's not all 81 of them, but it's the ones I taught when I was
68 00:06:17 --> 00:06:21 doing paid mentorship, which I don't do anymore. I'm not doing it for again, so
69 00:06:21 --> 00:06:25 it's all uploaded for free on my YouTube channel, so I have at it. But that is a
70 00:06:25 --> 00:06:29 propulsion block. It's a bearish propulsion block. So price trades up
71 00:06:29 --> 00:06:34 into it today and then rejects and goes lower. So that's what that level issue.
72 00:06:35 --> 00:06:40 It's a daily bearish order block. So we start trading here, rally up and then
73 00:06:40 --> 00:06:44 break aggressively lower. This is that weekly fair value gap dying I'm
74 00:06:44 --> 00:06:49 expecting, and I might be wrong, but I'm expecting it to perform as an inversion
75 00:06:49 --> 00:06:52 fairy value gap, and then attack that minor sell side liquidity. And then
76 00:06:52 --> 00:06:56 we'll see if it even gets down there at all, if it wants to make a another
77 00:06:56 --> 00:07:01 attempt that you break lower and attack that convergence of those three discount
78 00:07:01 --> 00:07:07 arrays, the order block, fair value gap and the sell side liquidity pool. All
79 00:07:07 --> 00:07:11 right, we're going to segue right into euro dollar. We're going to not need to
80 00:07:11 --> 00:07:13 look at the weekly or the daily. We're going to cut right through the chase of
81 00:07:13 --> 00:07:18 the hour chart, because everything would be the opposite of what we're expecting
82 00:07:18 --> 00:07:24 on the dollar index. Now, right away. Take a look at this. Pause the video
83 00:07:24 --> 00:07:28 that way before I show the annotations. You can test yourself. See what your
84 00:07:28 --> 00:07:35 observation skill set is at the time. All right, here's a fair value you got
85 00:07:35 --> 00:07:38 right there. I said about sell side efficiency. Market trades down to that
86 00:07:38 --> 00:07:43 on today's trading here around midnight or so, and rallies up, creates another
87 00:07:43 --> 00:07:48 fair value gap. There, reacts off of it there, sends us up into this old
88 00:07:48 --> 00:07:52 inefficiency and above this short term high. But I'm gonna take your attention
89 00:07:52 --> 00:07:55 to the city right here. This is sell side imbalance, buy side and efficiency.
90 00:07:55 --> 00:08:02 Big, big mouthful. A lot of words out there, but all it is is a big single
91 00:08:02 --> 00:08:07 candle that doesn't have its range shared by the previous candle or the
92 00:08:07 --> 00:08:12 subsequent candle after that. So this sell side and balance buy side
93 00:08:12 --> 00:08:17 efficiency. When price is bullish, we expect this to act as an inversion fair
94 00:08:17 --> 00:08:21 value gap. So you can drop your fiber on top of it and get the upper quadrant.
95 00:08:21 --> 00:08:26 Consequence, red level, lower quadrant and the low and we shade it, or I shade
96 00:08:26 --> 00:08:30 it, just to help you guys follow along with the logic I'm thinking about in
97 00:08:30 --> 00:08:35 terms of these PD arrays. Whenever you see an orange one, I'm expecting it to
98 00:08:35 --> 00:08:39 reverse its role. Okay, so since it's sell side of balance, I'm sorry, sell
99 00:08:39 --> 00:08:42 side and balance, buy side and efficiency. Normally, if it was a
100 00:08:42 --> 00:08:46 bearish market, when it trades up into this upper quadrant or consequence, or
101 00:08:46 --> 00:08:50 even a lower quadrant, if it's extremely bearish, that would be enough for the to
102 00:08:50 --> 00:08:54 roll over and go lower. But if we're expecting weakness in the dollar index,
103 00:08:54 --> 00:08:58 then this is not going to be seen as a sell off. It's going to be used as a
104 00:08:58 --> 00:09:04 means of supporting price. Okay, so all these levels here, the low, the lower
105 00:09:04 --> 00:09:10 quadrant, consequence, upper quadrant, we expect them to act as a discount
106 00:09:10 --> 00:09:14 array, okay, to support price. So the market does, in fact, trade down to its
107 00:09:14 --> 00:09:18 low here. Then finds the support at that fair value gap there, and then look at
108 00:09:18 --> 00:09:24 the bodies they couldn't even trade at and close at or below the lower quadrant
109 00:09:24 --> 00:09:29 that's extremely bullish. The market rallies up this candle, opens trades
110 00:09:29 --> 00:09:32 right down at the consequent encroachment in the mid level, rallies
111 00:09:32 --> 00:09:36 falls short of the high, breaks back down in fair value gap there, and then
112 00:09:36 --> 00:09:41 rallies outside of it into this old inefficiency and above that short term
113 00:09:41 --> 00:09:48 high. Notice these very, very smooth. Okay, so there's liquidity up in there.
114 00:09:48 --> 00:09:52 So if we have a sustained price run, I think that Euro dollar could visit this
115 00:09:52 --> 00:09:57 area. I'm not telling you that it's going to do that. I'm looking at the
116 00:09:57 --> 00:10:02 price action, which is extremely sloppy right now. On 4x I'm being honest with
117 00:10:02 --> 00:10:07 you. So that way you know that I'm not giving you these targets with high level
118 00:10:07 --> 00:10:11 conviction. I'm just giving you based on what I see. In my opinion, it's not
119 00:10:11 --> 00:10:15 trade device. It's not me inspiring you out there and take trades on this
120 00:10:15 --> 00:10:18 information. You know, it's the beginning of the year. It's a whole lot
121 00:10:18 --> 00:10:22 of things going on. Geopolitically, trade wars are underway. I mean, it's,
122 00:10:22 --> 00:10:25 it's, it's wild west right now. So you got to be very, very careful. The
123 00:10:25 --> 00:10:31 market's gonna be extremely volatile, as they were today, and just be very
124 00:10:31 --> 00:10:31 careful, all
125 00:10:33 --> 00:10:36 right, dropping down to a 15 on time frame. See a little bit more detail
126 00:10:36 --> 00:10:42 here. Here is today's beginning at midnight, trading down to that fair
127 00:10:42 --> 00:10:45 value gap. And then we rally up, consequent encroachment, beautiful
128 00:10:45 --> 00:10:50 inside a small little gap right there. And then rallies up, comes back down
129 00:10:50 --> 00:11:01 into another gap there, and a bullish breaker, low, high, lower, low, or above
130 00:11:01 --> 00:11:05 it there, okay, and then rallies higher, comes back down in touch, the upper
131 00:11:05 --> 00:11:10 quadrant, level of the inversion fair value gap. Then sends price higher. Look
132 00:11:10 --> 00:11:15 at the bodies stopping at the inversion fair value gap high. That's this city.
133 00:11:15 --> 00:11:20 Look at that. It's beautiful in it beautiful. And rallies outside of it,
134 00:11:22 --> 00:11:26 five minutes short. Chart zoomed in here. We have the low of the day around
135 00:11:26 --> 00:11:30 midnight. Rallies up. We have London Open kill zone. It's been a long time.
136 00:11:30 --> 00:11:34 So I said those words, so we have buy set and balance outside efficiency. The
137 00:11:34 --> 00:11:38 market trades down into that handsomely, and that is your London Open kill zone
138 00:11:39 --> 00:11:45 long, or the London Open kill zone, silver bullet. Okay? Very, very easy
139 00:11:45 --> 00:11:50 methodology applied to London Open and then rally to this would be easy bread
140 00:11:50 --> 00:11:54 and butter setup, or upper quadrant level of the city. That would be a nice
141 00:11:54 --> 00:12:03 target from here to there, adding as a pyramiding Python about cell phone
142 00:12:03 --> 00:12:07 efficiency, dropping down the consequent encroachment, then sends it comes back
143 00:12:07 --> 00:12:11 down in touches the bullish breaker. Remember, you're looking at it on a 15
144 00:12:11 --> 00:12:17 minute time frame. Now, these two candles are broken up, but they're
145 00:12:17 --> 00:12:20 consecutive, so that's the same thing as what we showed on the 15 minute time
146 00:12:20 --> 00:12:25 frame. Extend that forward support here, and then trace down to look at the
147 00:12:25 --> 00:12:29 bodies right on the mean threshold. Because mean threshold is an order block
148 00:12:29 --> 00:12:33 midpoint. It's not a gap midpoint. So gaps are consequence encroachment at the
149 00:12:33 --> 00:12:37 mid level and order blocks, which is real candlestick ranges, they are mean
150 00:12:37 --> 00:12:42 threshold. So look at that. The body's stopping right there during what New
151 00:12:42 --> 00:12:47 York open kill zone, rallies up, comes down to the top of the bullish breaker
152 00:12:47 --> 00:12:52 over here, then displacement higher, beautiful, fair value gap Hammer time
153 00:12:52 --> 00:13:00 again, right in there, sends it higher, trades it outside the inversion. Fair
154 00:13:00 --> 00:13:05 value gap comes back into this fair value gap here, and then starts sending
155 00:13:05 --> 00:13:13 it higher into London, close, segueing into British Pound. One hour chart
156 00:13:13 --> 00:13:16 again. No need to look at the weekly, indoor daily. It's going to be the
157 00:13:16 --> 00:13:20 opposite of what we see in the week dollar. So it's going to be bullish
158 00:13:20 --> 00:13:24 POUND DOLLAR. Pause the video so that you can test yourself. See what I'm
159 00:13:24 --> 00:13:32 going to annotate. All right. So we have a buy side liquidity pool up here, and
160 00:13:32 --> 00:13:36 we have minor side, minor buy side liquidity here, relative equal highs.
161 00:13:36 --> 00:13:42 And we're going to look at these here later on, but right now, here's the same
162 00:13:42 --> 00:13:48 thing we saw on the euro, dollar, Sibi, when bullish, it's going to act as an
163 00:13:48 --> 00:13:51 inversion fair value gap. Put your gradient levels in with your fib, which
164 00:13:51 --> 00:13:59 is the 7550 and 25 levels respectively. We had the market show a bison about
165 00:13:59 --> 00:14:04 cells on efficiency, institutional orfa entry jail, meaning it doesn't even
166 00:14:04 --> 00:14:09 trade to halfway or close the gap in and then rallies higher. That is strength.
167 00:14:09 --> 00:14:12 You have another buy side and balance cell sign, efficiency, fair value gap
168 00:14:12 --> 00:14:17 here, rallies above again. Institutional orfa entry jail, never even touches the
169 00:14:17 --> 00:14:23 midpoint comes back down in touches the inversion, fair pay gap once more during
170 00:14:23 --> 00:14:29 the overnight, at midnight time, rallies comes back into a rejection block, which
171 00:14:29 --> 00:14:33 is lowest down closed candle, closing price, then rallies up and takes the
172 00:14:33 --> 00:14:39 miners buy side out here 15 at time frame, you see a little bit more detail
173 00:14:39 --> 00:14:43 here. We have the low of that city when it trades up into it institutional or
174 00:14:43 --> 00:14:47 flow entry, Joe here and here, consequence, approach never is touched.
175 00:14:47 --> 00:14:55 Rallies comes back down in institutional air flow entry, drill on the passenger
176 00:14:55 --> 00:14:58 valve cell sign efficiency here, and notice the body stopping at the high
177 00:14:58 --> 00:15:02 that inversion favor. You got right there and here as well. They're all
178 00:15:02 --> 00:15:07 signals that the algorithm is saying it's going to go higher. Okay, just look
179 00:15:07 --> 00:15:11 for higher prices. So when, when it was trading here, what's the easiest low
180 00:15:11 --> 00:15:15 hanging fruit objective if you're going to look for something going higher, and
181 00:15:15 --> 00:15:18 you don't want to demand this buy side, and you don't want to demand this buy
182 00:15:18 --> 00:15:21 side, but you just simply want to ride something to the upside, because you
183 00:15:21 --> 00:15:25 trust that this is telling you that wants to go higher. Well, what's this
184 00:15:25 --> 00:15:29 right here, relative equal highs. Okay, so that's the one I was highlighting
185 00:15:29 --> 00:15:38 during the telegram session this morning, at 845, for February 4, 2025,
186 00:15:39 --> 00:15:45 real time market conditions and real time commentary. Look at the time for
187 00:15:45 --> 00:15:53 8:45am, New York local time, by the way. So I tell you, or told the members at
188 00:15:53 --> 00:15:57 that time, that I believe that that was an easy, low hanging fruit objective for
189 00:15:57 --> 00:16:01 a draw on liquidity for POUND DOLLAR. It's the only 4x commentary I gave
190 00:16:01 --> 00:16:06 today, and I was given at 845 and I'll tell you in more detail about why 845 I
191 00:16:06 --> 00:16:13 told you that. And we have another city here. When the market's bullish, cities
192 00:16:13 --> 00:16:18 turn into bullish inversion, fair value gaps. So look at the bodies stopping at
193 00:16:18 --> 00:16:22 the consequent encouragement level of that beautiful, isn't it? Rallies higher
194 00:16:22 --> 00:16:27 down close candle. That is a bullish order block on the 15 minute time frame.
195 00:16:27 --> 00:16:33 See it up here? 15 minute time frame. Bullish order block opens here. Trades
196 00:16:33 --> 00:16:42 down. That's your 845, time when it starts to spool, price higher. Nice
197 00:16:42 --> 00:16:48 measuring gap, rallies up into the minor buy side, but easily gets to the
198 00:16:48 --> 00:16:55 relative equal highs here, which were based on Mondays, four o'clock highs,
199 00:16:57 --> 00:17:04 okay, five minute time frame. Oh, I just caught a typo. I should say 15 minutes,
200 00:17:04 --> 00:17:08 not five minutes. So I apologize, it's basically the order block of this
201 00:17:08 --> 00:17:12 outline on the 15 time frame. So we have the city here, which is the smaller one.
202 00:17:12 --> 00:17:16 This was the larger one here, then we went into this one. So just for sake of
203 00:17:16 --> 00:17:22 clarity, we're looking at this city, and this is that larger one. So you can see
204 00:17:22 --> 00:17:25 that little white fair value gap shaded area here, and then this one here. Now
205 00:17:25 --> 00:17:30 when we drop into a five minute, this is going to look big, and all of this is
206 00:17:30 --> 00:17:32 not going to be fully seen. This is going to show this little area in this
207 00:17:33 --> 00:17:38 area here. And that's what we're seeing here, that small, little area of the
208 00:17:38 --> 00:17:42 larger one. And this is that city. So it trades down to the low of it here trades
209 00:17:42 --> 00:17:46 outside of it, creates a minor sell side liquidity pool with these relative equal
210 00:17:46 --> 00:17:51 lows during the London Open kill zone, trades up creates relative equal highs,
211 00:17:51 --> 00:17:56 retraces back down into in New York open kill zone, the lower quadrant of this
212 00:17:56 --> 00:18:01 city, clears the minor cell side liquidity here During the New York open
213 00:18:01 --> 00:18:06 kill zone, rallies up, touches the high, the city moves higher, creates a fair
214 00:18:06 --> 00:18:16 value gap that's bullish. And now we have what consequent encroachment order
215 00:18:16 --> 00:18:21 block on a 15 minute time frame. That is not correct. It should say 15 minutes.
216 00:18:21 --> 00:18:31 Again, trades. So here rallies up, clears. Minor buy side rallies up, runs
217 00:18:31 --> 00:18:36 one more time. And this is a 10 o'clock silver bullet. So yes, it works in 4x so
218 00:18:36 --> 00:18:40 it rallies up. We didn't get to the minor buy side. Here trades down to
219 00:18:40 --> 00:18:44 here, perfect stop at consequent encouragement and then runs into London.
220 00:18:44 --> 00:18:49 Close now let's say you want to trade in the direction of that first minor buy
221 00:18:49 --> 00:18:54 side liquidity pool, but you just don't have the conviction or the experience to
222 00:18:54 --> 00:19:02 hold for it. Well, you can take along in here, along here, along here, but then
223 00:19:02 --> 00:19:08 measure this high to that next liquidity pool. Every liquidity pool has, in and
224 00:19:08 --> 00:19:16 of itself, a midpoint, an algorithmic level that it will reach to. Okay, so it
225 00:19:16 --> 00:19:20 looks like this. If you take the FIB and you anchor it to this high, draw it up
226 00:19:20 --> 00:19:25 to this level here, and just highlight the midpoint 50 level. That's what this
227 00:19:25 --> 00:19:30 is here. And you can see that's a very easy objective to reach for, for 1.2455
228 00:19:33 --> 00:19:39 and we would call that a Buy, Sell liquidity pool. Now it's not anchored to
229 00:19:39 --> 00:19:44 anything. It's out inside the range between two pools of liquidity. But just
230 00:19:44 --> 00:19:48 like when you're looking at these things that you feel are super science, these
231 00:19:48 --> 00:19:52 ladders, these DOMs, where it shows the buy orders and the sellers above and
232 00:19:52 --> 00:19:57 below the marketplace, you don't need that. You do not need that at all. And
233 00:19:57 --> 00:20:00 if you start applying these concepts like I'm teaching. And you hear, you'll
234 00:20:01 --> 00:20:04 be able to see that there's a lot of interest in that midpoint level there,
235 00:20:04 --> 00:20:08 and it never needs to go to this level here, which is how you learn how to
236 00:20:08 --> 00:20:12 trade inside the range and never require a price to ever trade outside of it.
237 00:20:20 --> 00:20:24 Hi, folks, that's it for tonight. Hope you had fun. Hope you learned something
238 00:20:24 --> 00:20:28 today, if not, come back tomorrow, and I'm sure you'll find something inspiring
239 00:20:28 --> 00:20:32 and educational. They'll talk to you tomorrow. Lord willing be safe. You.