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ICT YT - 2024-10-07 - ICT 2024 Mentorship - Lecture 40

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-10-08 13:30
1 00:00:40 --> 00:00:57 ICT: Well, good morning, folks, how are you happy? A nice weekend. Checking
2 00:00:58 --> 00:01:00 Twitter. You guys can let me know If you can hear me, okay.
3 00:01:22 --> 00:01:33 You thank you, fellas, appreciate it. All right, so we are open for business
4 00:01:33 --> 00:01:48 here, opening range, gap high at 220, 2.25 so Always starting the opening
5 00:01:48 --> 00:01:54 range with that initial bias. I 
6 00:02:39 --> 00:02:44 we have no news today or Tuesday, and then we have CPI and PPI later in the
7 00:02:44 --> 00:02:50 week, so it's gonna be a lot of volatility towards the end of the week.
8 00:02:54 --> 00:02:59 Price should be slow but still clean on Monday and Tuesday this week, I'm
9 00:03:18 --> 00:03:24 again as a reminder we're always looking for that, that mid gap.
10 00:03:32 --> 00:03:36 So we're looking around 20,001 79, and a Half. I'm
11 00:04:01 --> 00:04:08 I take you out on a five minute chart. Show you the pools of liquidity. Here's
12 00:04:08 --> 00:04:10 minor sell side, 
13 00:04:16 --> 00:04:24 minor buy side. Those are two pools of liquidity that I'm focusing on,
14 00:04:24 --> 00:04:28 primarily this morning. Initially beyond that, we have
15 00:04:35 --> 00:04:46 this low here, and then we have this back here for primary buy side and
16 00:04:46 --> 00:04:50 primary sell side. I'll leave them up here for a second so you can put them on
17 00:04:50 --> 00:04:50 your chart. 
18 00:04:59 --> 00:05:05 I. I tried to do very little talking today. I believe I'm getting what my
19 00:05:05 --> 00:05:09 wife and kids have had. So I'm trying to preserve my voice. Otherwise I won't be
20 00:05:09 --> 00:05:12 able to speak at all, 
21 00:05:17 --> 00:05:19 so only when it's sailing up. I'll mention something i
22 00:05:29 --> 00:05:29 so I 
23 00:05:43 --> 00:05:44 that's the initial Draw. I'm 
24 00:07:20 --> 00:07:44 I'd like to see that stay open right here On the 15 second chart. I
25 00:09:51 --> 00:09:59 so far, we don't have a one minute fair value gap yet, but I noted the 15.
26 00:10:00 --> 00:10:00 Second one point so 
27 00:10:33 --> 00:10:39 the full gap closure would be all the way up here. Mid gap is here, 20,001 79
28 00:10:40 --> 00:10:45 and a half, it's Always the initial draw for the first 30 minutes, I'm
29 00:11:00 --> 00:11:10 I'm watching this volume and bounce on the one minute chart on the left side. I
30 00:11:10 --> 00:11:13 don't want to annotate it, because I don't want too much stuff on the chart.
31 00:11:13 --> 00:11:14 This morning, 
32 00:11:22 --> 00:11:29 I You're gonna hear my puppy snoring. Sorry, is what it is. I'm
33 00:12:41 --> 00:12:43 So far, a little disorganized this Morning.
34 00:13:02 --> 00:13:32 I earlier, you already mentioned. I'd rather see that stay open. The fact that
35 00:13:32 --> 00:13:37 we came down and hit It puts you on the sidelines till 10. I
36 00:15:21 --> 00:15:27 Okay, I'm going to first present a fair value gap for a moment. I
37 00:15:40 --> 00:15:59 The initial low taken here, so we'll See what we get After having done so I'm
38 00:17:13 --> 00:17:15 there's nothing for you to Do. Caleb, you have To sit still. I
39 00:18:23 --> 00:18:27 i prefer to try to climb back above first present the pair of a gap on the
40 00:18:27 --> 00:18:32 one minute chart. Treat it as inversion from the buy side and get back to mid
41 00:18:32 --> 00:18:42 gap. Mid gap gives me better visibility for The rest of The morning session. I
42 00:19:41 --> 00:19:47 using inversion fair value gap here, then rallying subsequent fair value gap
43 00:19:47 --> 00:19:53 after that, that would be the entry, not just trading back into it, to
44 00:19:53 --> 00:20:00 disorganized so far to see, use the first return back into it. I
45 00:20:13 --> 00:20:19 come back after a weekend, everybody's chomping at the bit to get into a trade.
46 00:20:19 --> 00:20:23 This is when you want to be slow, slow to act You
47 00:20:53 --> 00:20:55 10 and a half minutes left, opening range. I
48 00:21:16 --> 00:21:20 Now, ideally it should go higher from here. It wants to go to that mid gap,
49 00:21:20 --> 00:21:29 where it's at and how it's trading is fairly probable, but it has to displace
50 00:21:29 --> 00:21:34 away from it. Just can't be sitting in it and trade away from it. That's not
51 00:21:34 --> 00:21:35 the entry. In other words, 
52 00:21:42 --> 00:22:22 I it's behaving like it wants to go to Go to for a deeper run on sell side. I
53 00:23:00 --> 00:23:13 I see how I touch the first presenter here that you got right here are we on a
54 00:23:13 --> 00:23:17 minute chart? That's this area. I'm trying to keep it light, because I don't
55 00:23:17 --> 00:23:20 want to have all this stuff on my chart. But I know it's gonna be hard for you to
56 00:23:20 --> 00:23:24 track what I'm talking about. I don't have it on there in some capacity. You
57 00:24:20 --> 00:24:33 I see how demanding the initial fair value gap trade above it expected to see
58 00:24:33 --> 00:24:38 it as inversion fair value gap displays higher than a subsequent fair value gap.
59 00:24:38 --> 00:24:47 That's the trade being in here, not the tree. Minor cell side's been taken. Now,
60 00:24:47 --> 00:24:55 I would suspect if it was going to go for the mid gap at all before taking out
61 00:24:55 --> 00:24:59 the lower cell side, it would need to do it here, otherwise this is going to
62 00:24:59 --> 00:25:03 stay. Heavy throughout the morning and leave that gap for right now.
63 00:25:09 --> 00:25:14 See these smooth lows are Here a one minute chart I
64 00:26:00 --> 00:26:15 the opening range traded back to three quarters. I'm sorry, lower quarter of
65 00:26:15 --> 00:26:21 the opening range gap. That's mid gap, lower quadrant, and then upper quadrant
66 00:26:21 --> 00:26:23 and then previous Friday settlement. 
67 00:26:42 --> 00:29:46 I no reason to be in there yet. Caleb, 
68 00:29:59 --> 00:30:12 you. Another minute, left, Opening range. I
69 00:32:00 --> 00:32:23 I'm trying to keep the audio commentary like today. Keisha just signed in. You
70 00:32:43 --> 00:32:47 I'd like to see where it's at right here. I'd like to see it try to make an
71 00:32:47 --> 00:32:52 attempt to get back into first presented fair value gap. That's the the gap over
72 00:32:52 --> 00:33:00 here on the one minute chart. That's this one right there. That candle
73 00:33:01 --> 00:33:09 defined by this candle is high, that candle is low. If it doesn't run above,
74 00:33:09 --> 00:33:13 it entry to end version and displace higher and Create a fair value. Got
75 00:33:13 --> 00:33:15 there. I'm not touching it. 
76 00:34:14 --> 00:34:19 Now, if I was inclined to be bearish today, and I'm not saying I won't be
77 00:34:19 --> 00:34:23 later on, if something provides that information to me. But as of right now,
78 00:34:23 --> 00:34:28 I'm not interested in being short, but a return back into the opening price here
79 00:34:29 --> 00:34:33 that hits that then displaces lower after that, that would indicate
80 00:34:33 --> 00:34:38 potential weakness. I would not sell short on that. But that's, that's how we
81 00:34:38 --> 00:34:44 would use the opening range gap. Because we've been we've been below it. But I'm
82 00:34:44 --> 00:34:51 more interested in seeing the trade above this gap right there, which is
83 00:34:51 --> 00:34:56 this gap specifically on the one minute chart. I want to see a trade above it,
84 00:34:57 --> 00:35:01 come back down, react off of it this way. Is higher, and then any fair value
85 00:35:01 --> 00:35:06 gap that forms on the 15 second chart over here, I would use that as a rung
86 00:35:06 --> 00:35:11 into midca. Otherwise, all of this here absolutely useless to me. I'm not
87 00:35:11 --> 00:35:15 trading it. I wouldn't want my son trading it. You sit on your hands.
88 00:35:18 --> 00:35:22 Knowing why you're still is more important than where the next entry is.
89 00:35:22 --> 00:35:22 I 
90 00:35:40 --> 00:35:49 i want to maximize just a 15 second chart. I
91 00:36:19 --> 00:36:21 i like to see That portion Stay Open. 
92 00:36:42 --> 00:37:39 You. No fair value gap after running off of it first presented fair value gap. So
93 00:37:39 --> 00:37:48 while it did give a little bit of a run. No fair value got formed, no trade, if
94 00:37:48 --> 00:37:55 then or else. And at this moment, since we've completed the first 30 minutes of
95 00:37:55 --> 00:38:00 trading, I'd like to look back and see what price has done, see how anybody may
96 00:38:00 --> 00:38:05 have been caught off guard. Who would be positioned heavy, who would be
97 00:38:05 --> 00:38:12 positioned on a breakout from right now? In other words, they would be a short
98 00:38:12 --> 00:38:18 seller if taken out here, or they'd be going long breaking out above here. I
99 00:38:21 --> 00:38:28 don't trade that way, but I like to look at it from that perspective. The buy
100 00:38:28 --> 00:38:32 side above here has been tagged or back inside the middle of the range.
101 00:38:42 --> 00:39:23 I i see how none of this hurts you. Caleb, knowing what you're looking for,
102 00:39:25 --> 00:39:27 you're not getting caught up in all of this range bound delivery.
103 00:39:42 --> 00:39:54 You gonna 
104 00:39:54 --> 00:39:59 give it to 15 minutes after 10, nothing materializes. I'm gonna cut bait for
105 00:39:59 --> 00:40:06 today. It'd be just a good exercise on patience. So if I none of this in here,
106 00:40:06 --> 00:40:09 I'm interested in that, I would not expect my son to be able to treat him
107 00:40:16 --> 00:40:20 this, which indicates that the afternoon should be a little bit better. If this
108 00:40:20 --> 00:40:25 is going to be the morning session, that means lunch macro and afternoon session
109 00:40:25 --> 00:40:26 will be better, 
110 00:40:31 --> 00:40:36 better in the sense that the setups will be cleaner, easier to identify, whereas
111 00:40:36 --> 00:40:42 right now, nothing really stands out the things I would wait for and instructing
112 00:40:42 --> 00:40:46 Caleb to be aware of they're not materialized. So there's no trade.
113 00:40:46 --> 00:40:50 There's no losing trade, there's no missed opportunity. Nothing's happened
114 00:40:50 --> 00:40:50 so far I 
115 00:42:51 --> 00:42:52 Quiet I 
116 00:43:49 --> 00:43:53 maximize This here. I 
117 00:44:03 --> 00:44:06 if you look at the 15 minute time frame, 
118 00:44:15 --> 00:44:21 we're stuck in all of this price action right here. That's what's making this
119 00:44:21 --> 00:44:32 morning difficult in London. If you look at what we have, this was Friday's
120 00:44:32 --> 00:44:37 presented first presented fair value gap in white. Then we have the opening of
121 00:44:37 --> 00:44:42 the week there. So this is new week opening gap, consequent encroachment
122 00:44:42 --> 00:44:47 sells off. In Balance, there's a volume imbalance. You'll see that when we drop
123 00:44:47 --> 00:44:52 down the five minute chart and there's this small little gap here on the 15
124 00:44:52 --> 00:44:56 minute time frame, five minute I'm. 
125 00:45:02 --> 00:45:07 That's that gap there, all through here, 15 minute inversion, fair value gap.
126 00:45:07 --> 00:45:10 It's bearish. Why? Because this is a buy side of balance in the 50 minute time
127 00:45:10 --> 00:45:18 frame. It was and trading back down, aiming for liquidity lower. This area
128 00:45:18 --> 00:45:20 here, I'm I 
129 00:45:28 --> 00:45:34 see the entry right inside of the inversive everything you got and then
130 00:45:35 --> 00:45:46 failing to go lower. One was taken off in the other stopped. So there's
131 00:45:46 --> 00:45:52 covering one and then getting stopped on the final balance. So that's the only
132 00:45:52 --> 00:46:01 activity I had in The last two sessions. Back to This. Now, Okay?
133 00:48:07 --> 00:48:14 Minor sides. Take minor by sides taken here. That focuses here, mid gap. I'm
134 00:49:39 --> 00:49:42 inside that volume of balance from earlier, as I mentioned, I.
135 00:50:06 --> 00:50:08 Watching this down Close Candle i 
136 00:51:04 --> 00:51:09 So what would you call today's delivery so far? What condition are we in, after
137 00:51:09 --> 00:51:15 taking into the 15 minute chart? Are we in low resistance liquidity run?
138 00:51:15 --> 00:51:22 Conditions are in high resistance liquidity on are you seeing fair value
139 00:51:22 --> 00:51:26 gaps, spending a lot of time inside them?
140 00:51:33 --> 00:51:38 So we're in high resistance liquidity run. That's why it's delivering as it
141 00:51:38 --> 00:51:45 is, knowing that concept I shared with you last week, you're able to anticipate
142 00:51:45 --> 00:51:48 this and sit on your hands a little bit easier. You should have been able to sit
143 00:51:48 --> 00:51:53 on your hands a little bit easier today. Let's put it that way and not need me to
144 00:51:53 --> 00:51:57 say that myself or my son would be sitting still. You.
145 00:52:05 --> 00:52:08 Here's that first presenter, fair value cut on the one minute chart we're
146 00:52:08 --> 00:52:14 looking at over to perspective of 15 second spending too much time in here,
147 00:52:15 --> 00:52:17 too much time in here. That's 
148 00:52:28 --> 00:52:33 the problem is, you'll see moves afterwards and look back and say, I wish
149 00:52:33 --> 00:52:36 I would have done this. Which would have done that nothing in here is high
150 00:52:36 --> 00:52:45 probability, nothing i And just because you see a setup doesn't make that set up
151 00:52:45 --> 00:52:52 high probability. I'm teaching my son the look for low resistance, liquidity
152 00:52:52 --> 00:52:58 run where it's easy, it rewards his patience, and it quickly and almost near
153 00:52:58 --> 00:53:06 effortlessly, goes to his targets. He's got to work hard for his profit. He's
154 00:53:07 --> 00:53:13 trading in the wrong conditions. That's basically what I'm getting at. It's easy
155 00:53:13 --> 00:53:17 to time the market, easy to frame low risk, easy to find low hanging fruit,
156 00:53:17 --> 00:53:23 objectives, partials, and then alternate term is in low resistance. You want to
157 00:53:23 --> 00:53:26 trade in these conditions, you certainly can, but you're going to have a lot more
158 00:53:26 --> 00:53:30 stop outs, a lot more frustration and anxiety while you're in the market and
159 00:53:30 --> 00:53:35 then in the trades. And I'm not trying to teach that to my son. I wanted to go
160 00:53:35 --> 00:53:39 out there and feel confident. I wanted to feel comfortable watching the trade,
161 00:53:39 --> 00:53:44 not worrying about a continuous, endless fear of being stopped out and taking a
162 00:53:44 --> 00:53:48 losing trade. There's a better way of doing it, and that's what I'm teaching
163 00:53:48 --> 00:53:48 you. 
164 00:53:56 --> 00:53:59 Seven half more minutes, and then the stream is going to end. No matter what
165 00:53:59 --> 00:54:00 it does, I'm 
166 00:54:14 --> 00:54:22 midweek. I'm sorry, sorry, opening range gap midpoint is consequent crochet up
167 00:54:22 --> 00:54:26 here, any movement beyond that takes us back to new week opening gap below,
168 00:54:27 --> 00:54:29 which is this level here, and then consequent crochet,
169 00:54:36 --> 00:54:39 any movement back below the first presented fair value gap on the One
170 00:54:39 --> 00:54:45 minute chart, which is this area here shaded, well, not shaded. Let me shade
171 00:54:45 --> 00:54:46 it now. I'm sorry, 
172 00:54:56 --> 00:55:00 anything below that that comes back up and treats it as an inversion. I. It
173 00:55:00 --> 00:55:03 needs to if it's bearish, let's say it that way for the afternoon, like say we
174 00:55:03 --> 00:55:07 go up here and trade mid gap, or bump the new week opening guy, if we break
175 00:55:07 --> 00:55:13 down lower over lunch or into the afternoon, and we we trade below this
176 00:55:13 --> 00:55:17 and come back up and hit it and then displace lower on a 15 second chart, and
177 00:55:17 --> 00:55:21 it creates a fair value gap. That's something that I would me personally,
178 00:55:21 --> 00:55:25 that's how I would trade the afternoon. But it would need to do the things I've
179 00:55:25 --> 00:55:29 just said here. I'm not saying I'm bearish, I'm not saying I'm long or
180 00:55:29 --> 00:55:32 bullish. I'm presently still looking for this.
181 00:55:41 --> 00:55:47 I highlighted this inefficiency here, because the way the market's delivering,
182 00:55:47 --> 00:55:51 it's going to be without precision. Because we're in low, I'm sorry, we're
183 00:55:51 --> 00:55:54 in high resistance liquidity run. So if it's going to lack precision, that means
184 00:55:54 --> 00:55:58 it's not going to come back to my first presented fair value gap. That's what I
185 00:55:58 --> 00:56:03 want. And I tell you this one here, and you can see the body staying inside
186 00:56:03 --> 00:56:07 that. And then we sent it higher. Respected the volume imbalance here or
187 00:56:07 --> 00:56:11 inside of it. Now, like to see it well, there's a blame imbalance right in here.
188 00:56:11 --> 00:56:14 So it could, it could spike down into that. I
189 00:56:53 --> 00:56:58 I see how it moves. It's give and take, but it takes a lot more than what you'd
190 00:56:58 --> 00:57:02 want to see in the low resistance liquidity run condition. It makes a
191 00:57:02 --> 00:57:08 high. The run that makes the high, it pulls back real deep each time. That's
192 00:57:08 --> 00:57:11 not a fun market to be in, especially when you're trying to build large
193 00:57:11 --> 00:57:20 positions, it feels well, it causes this confidence by that way, whereas if
194 00:57:20 --> 00:57:24 you're trading in low resistance liquidity run conditions, the market
195 00:57:24 --> 00:57:29 just seems to want to go where you want it to go and just feel onside. There's
196 00:57:29 --> 00:57:34 no anxiety. It's just a quick, smooth run right to where you got to get to.
197 00:57:34 --> 00:57:36 Can you move to sidelines quickly and wait for the new setups?
198 00:57:42 --> 00:57:45 Well, the volume and balance still in that area right there,
199 00:57:57 --> 00:58:01 see the relative equal highs, which does what's just above that.
200 00:58:15 --> 00:58:18 We got three minutes left. I Want to end The stream. I
201 00:59:00 --> 00:59:24 there's your delivery. You want to screenshot that so see how they went up
202 00:59:24 --> 00:59:27 into the volume balance. But the relative equal highs here took your
203 00:59:27 --> 00:59:31 attention to the volume imbalance there. I said it could spike down into that.
204 00:59:31 --> 00:59:36 Volume imbalances are the least in terms of rigidness. I mentioned this to you
205 00:59:36 --> 00:59:40 many times. It means you got to let it trade through it and then come back
206 00:59:40 --> 00:59:43 above it. I said, now watch it in here again. It makes the very low of the
207 00:59:43 --> 00:59:48 alignment balance. That means the body that closing price on that candlestick.
208 00:59:48 --> 01:00:00 Look up here. Look at this value right here, 20,001 63, and a half. I'm. This
209 01:00:00 --> 01:00:01 candle sticks low 
210 01:00:07 --> 01:00:08 before it moves 
211 01:00:10 --> 01:00:16 20,001 and 63, and a quarter, so one tick variance hits it and then rallies
212 01:00:16 --> 01:00:23 to mid gap. Your attention was taken into this imbalance, because it was not
213 01:00:23 --> 01:00:28 likely to trade back down into our first present. If everybody got why? Why would
214 01:00:28 --> 01:00:32 it not come back down into it? Because it's already proven, as I was talking
215 01:00:32 --> 01:00:38 about this morning, in the very little speaking that I did, the the absence of
216 01:00:38 --> 01:00:43 precision, the fact that we spend so much time inside the inefficiencies
217 01:00:43 --> 01:00:47 means that we're in what we're in, high resistance liquidity runs. High
218 01:00:47 --> 01:00:51 resistance liquidity run conditions are not going to have elements of precision.
219 01:00:51 --> 01:00:54 That means the things that you really want to see delivered. They may be
220 01:00:54 --> 01:00:58 deferred. They may have deeper retracements in the price runs that
221 01:00:58 --> 01:01:02 you're part of. But more specifically, it's not going to deliver to the PD
222 01:01:02 --> 01:01:06 arrays as perfect as a low resistance liquidity run conditioning market would
223 01:01:06 --> 01:01:11 be. So as I was indicating, I wanted to see this gap. This shaded one here in
224 01:01:11 --> 01:01:15 orange, as the first one minute presented fair value gap between 931 and
225 01:01:15 --> 01:01:20 10 o'clock in the morning, Eastern Time. I went. I wanted to see a trade above
226 01:01:20 --> 01:01:24 it. Here uses inversion and displace higher and creative fair value gap. You
227 01:01:24 --> 01:01:27 don't see that here on a 15 second chart. So there's no missed trades.
228 01:01:27 --> 01:01:31 There's no stop out. There's no wrong logic. Same thing here, it's trading
229 01:01:31 --> 01:01:35 above it. Now the difference is, because I had told you that we're in high
230 01:01:35 --> 01:01:39 resistance, it's not likely to come back down into that. So I took you right into
231 01:01:39 --> 01:01:43 this inefficiency right here, and the body. Stop that. And then the small
232 01:01:43 --> 01:01:47 little Mohawk there. I mentioned that we would be reaching for this as the
233 01:01:47 --> 01:01:51 initial drone liquidity. That's my bias. That's how I'm teaching my son to look
234 01:01:51 --> 01:01:56 for that bias, even though it doesn't trade to it within the first 30 minutes,
235 01:01:56 --> 01:02:03 by 10 o'clock, I'm not I'm filtering. I don't want to see this as a shorting
236 01:02:03 --> 01:02:06 opportunity. So if it goes lower, it's going to go without me. It goes lower,
237 01:02:06 --> 01:02:12 it's going to go without Caleb. So keeping my focus on the mid gap, that
238 01:02:12 --> 01:02:18 consequent crochet of the discount opening gap, we kept lower than Friday's
239 01:02:18 --> 01:02:24 settlement price. Friday silence price is up here. So sticking to one side of
240 01:02:24 --> 01:02:29 the marketplace, adhering to specific roles, but identifying high resistance
241 01:02:29 --> 01:02:33 liquidity run conditions, that means if you're going to tape rate, you got to
242 01:02:34 --> 01:02:37 have some understanding that you're not going to probably get the very perfect
243 01:02:37 --> 01:02:41 entry like a low resistance liquidity run market would deliver where it would
244 01:02:41 --> 01:02:46 be trading above this gap here, coming back down, touching it, maybe going mid
245 01:02:46 --> 01:02:50 gap, and then displays higher, then creating a fair value gap on a 15 second
246 01:02:50 --> 01:02:55 chart. That would be Caleb's setup, that that's how he would use it today. But
247 01:02:55 --> 01:02:58 because it was identified to you beforehand, that was a high resistance
248 01:02:58 --> 01:03:02 liquidity and conditions that return back that I was outlining as a setup
249 01:03:02 --> 01:03:07 wasn't likely to deliver, so I went in and I framed this one, and that's where
250 01:03:07 --> 01:03:11 the body stopped. We whipped below it. That's the damage. And then we rallied
251 01:03:11 --> 01:03:17 higher volume of balance used here to run right into consequent crochet on the
252 01:03:17 --> 01:03:23 gap. So not terribly exciting today, I understand. But you know, we gotta work
253 01:03:23 --> 01:03:27 with what they give us, and that's all we can do as a as a speculator, as a
254 01:03:27 --> 01:03:32 trader, and you're gonna want to watch this whenever. Again, it's only an hour
255 01:03:32 --> 01:03:36 long, but there's a lot of things being shown here that will help you, and
256 01:03:36 --> 01:03:40 there's not a lot of talking in it, so hopefully you found an insightful Lord,
257 01:03:40 --> 01:03:43 willing. I will see you all tomorrow. Enjoy the rest of your day and be safe.
258 01:03:43 --> 01:03:43 You.