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ICT YT - 2024-09-24 - ICT 2024 Mentorship - Lecture 33

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-09-25 09:34
1 00:00:40 --> 00:00:52 ICT: Well, good morning, folks,
2 00:01:00 --> 00:01:03 having some difficulties here with This OBS bullshit, You
3 00:03:05 --> 00:03:12 all right, so got 20,001 zero, 3.75 mid gap,
4 00:03:21 --> 00:03:27 not rolling out the possibility of August, 20 seconds high being revisited,
5 00:03:27 --> 00:03:36 either today or tomorrow. We have news coming out at 10 o'clock, so we'll see
6 00:03:36 --> 00:03:37 what we get there. I
7 00:03:51 --> 00:04:01 i do believe I'm being throttled here somehow on YouTube, the volume when I'm
8 00:04:01 --> 00:04:07 doing the live streams is abysmal, and I have everything on my microphone levels
9 00:04:07 --> 00:04:15 is all the way up. So I'm not sure what the deal is, but when I Make a pre
10 00:04:15 --> 00:04:16 recorded video, the volume is fine.
11 00:04:22 --> 00:11:06 I I'm Trying to do very little speaking, in case you're wondering. So it's not
12 00:11:06 --> 00:11:10 like there's no audio. I'm just tired of seeing everybody bitch about something I
13 00:11:10 --> 00:11:10 can't control. I
14 00:14:54 --> 00:15:02 i would like to see it sweep that 20,085 level. I. For sell side. And then we'll
15 00:15:02 --> 00:15:08 see at 10 o'clock if they can start to send this thing towards the high of the
16 00:15:09 --> 00:15:24 23rd I think it was, or 22nd August, 22 up here. I It doesn't need to go down
17 00:15:24 --> 00:15:30 there. I mean, it's done enough to fulfill half the gap, but I'd rather see
18 00:15:30 --> 00:15:38 that. That would indicate that we have majority of the gap closed. You can
19 00:15:38 --> 00:15:41 leave the lower portion below the lower quadrant on the opening range gap
20 00:15:42 --> 00:15:47 difference between yesterday's selling price at 4:14pm, Eastern Time to 930s
21 00:15:47 --> 00:15:53 opening bell today. And again, you you determine that and see it by going to
22 00:15:53 --> 00:16:01 regular trading hours. So that's this that candles close
23 00:16:07 --> 00:16:14 to this, candles open, and I'm measuring the levels with the FIB to get the
24 00:16:14 --> 00:16:15 quadrants. I'm
25 00:16:28 --> 00:16:31 not trading ahead of the news, so We're just going to sit here and
26 00:16:42 --> 00:16:42 Wait. I'm
27 00:19:28 --> 00:19:34 alright, so they've done the run on 20,085 like I was looking for. So
28 00:19:34 --> 00:19:41 everything's prime now for a 10 o'clock news release, they could use that as a
29 00:19:41 --> 00:19:47 smoke screen to start sending it to the August 22 high. I'm gonna go into the 10
30 00:19:47 --> 00:19:52 o'clock news release after the initial hit of that, and the market starts
31 00:19:52 --> 00:19:56 moving around because of it. Give it a few minutes, and then see what we have
32 00:19:56 --> 00:20:03 afterwards, and I'll look for signs that my. Pre expectation of what the 10
33 00:20:03 --> 00:20:09 O'Clock News might bring us, if it's really, in fact, what's in in price.
34 00:20:09 --> 00:20:13 Because I could be wrong, but that's what I'm looking for. So so far, we've
35 00:20:13 --> 00:20:19 already seen it deliver nicely off of the first fair value gap between 930 and
36 00:20:19 --> 00:20:23 10 o'clock we've seen it trade to half of the opening range gap. So a 70%
37 00:20:24 --> 00:20:30 strike rate still holds true. There they run on 20,085 sell side that has been
38 00:20:30 --> 00:20:34 delivered. So everything here has been made jagged. Look at The lows. So
39 00:21:36 --> 00:21:43 now the two fair value gaps here in gray, I'd be looking for them to provide
40 00:21:43 --> 00:21:48 inversion discount. That means, if they trade above it, they should come down
41 00:21:48 --> 00:21:54 and support price and see if it can run to the initial high of the day where the
42 00:21:54 --> 00:21:56 minor buy side liquidity is annotated for A Moment. I
43 00:24:21 --> 00:24:22 got five minutes till the News. I'm
44 00:37:37 --> 00:37:41 thisgratiated area that's Thursday's first presented fair value gap. I'm
45 00:37:41 --> 00:37:42 going to finally remove
46 00:37:51 --> 00:37:53 that these I'll talk about before we Close the stream out. I'm
47 00:47:20 --> 00:47:28 I see how it's spending so much time inside the new week opening gap. This is
48 00:47:28 --> 00:47:29 this week's new week opening gap.
49 00:47:40 --> 00:47:42 Sell side, resting right below Here, Right
50 00:49:43 --> 00:49:48 I'd like to see it return back to the opening range, gap low. That's here. I.
51 00:54:20 --> 00:54:33 I see how energetic it is after going down to that 15 minute discount WIC cost
52 00:54:33 --> 00:54:41 encroachment level since the news release, there's been a few setups that
53 00:54:41 --> 00:54:48 I've outlined, I'm not interested in them. I'm looking for a very specific
54 00:54:48 --> 00:54:54 setup. So while they're there's a plethora of obvious, little, tiny
55 00:54:54 --> 00:54:58 fluctuations. I can see them, but I'm not interested in every single one
56 00:54:58 --> 00:54:59 that's available. I.
57 00:56:20 --> 00:56:43 I want to see that little green I Want to see this green area here stay open.
58 00:56:44 --> 00:56:47 And right now it's presently using this fair value gap. I want to see this stay
59 00:56:47 --> 00:56:51 open and start the mount o rally up in here. Then my focus will be back inside
60 00:56:51 --> 00:56:55 these areas here, where I've had the initial fair value gaps drawn. I want to
61 00:56:55 --> 00:57:01 see those be treated as inversion and make an attempt to get back up into the
62 00:57:01 --> 00:57:03 low of the opening range gap.
63 00:57:16 --> 00:57:20 I'm perfectly content sitting here waiting for what I want to see. It
64 00:57:20 --> 00:57:25 doesn't come I want as cute. Got volatility, that's good. I
65 00:57:43 --> 00:57:49 spending too much time inside that gap right here, too much time i
66 00:58:10 --> 00:58:15 i see the importance of it. Inefficiencies. Have to stay with one or
67 00:58:15 --> 00:58:21 two candles and leave it starts booking price and building in multiple, multiple
68 00:58:21 --> 00:58:25 candles inside the inefficiency, it isn't going to perform like You think It
69 00:58:25 --> 00:58:25 Will. You
70 01:11:00 --> 01:11:07 You want to screenshot that i
71 01:11:50 --> 01:11:57 i notice we had a low here, below here and a third low. So it's a three drives
72 01:11:57 --> 01:12:07 pattern. It traded down into a previous session. It's Monday's London, Session
73 01:12:07 --> 01:12:07 330, Low. You
74 01:14:54 --> 01:15:00 returning back for a minor buy side liquidity pool and re tapping the i. New
75 01:15:00 --> 01:15:01 week, opening gap low you
76 01:15:40 --> 01:15:50 I Want to screenshot that I'm
77 01:16:27 --> 01:16:34 it's normal to work the half of the new week, opening gap, the lower half here,
78 01:16:34 --> 01:16:41 it's normal for it to go just below midpoint or At midpoint, and then come
79 01:16:41 --> 01:16:45 down find a discount array, maybe touch and even Mohawk below the new week,
80 01:16:45 --> 01:16:51 opening gap low and reach for the upper half. And then there's minor buy side
81 01:16:51 --> 01:16:53 resting here, as noted earlier. So
82 01:17:00 --> 01:17:26 I remember you're looking at a 15 second chart. So a mohawk on this is going to
83 01:17:26 --> 01:17:29 Have a block or A candlestick Body. I'm
84 01:19:42 --> 01:19:46 We don't want to see it spend any more time down in here. Now that it's
85 01:19:46 --> 01:19:50 breached the midpoint, it needs to start working in the upper half and.
86 01:21:01 --> 01:21:06 Ideally you want To see this state. Stay unfilled and it leave the new week
87 01:21:07 --> 01:21:07 opening gap high and
88 01:21:20 --> 01:21:30 you want to screenshot that
89 01:21:35 --> 01:21:40 new week opening gap high is discount to the run to The minor buy side that's
90 01:21:40 --> 01:21:43 located at 2047, and three quarters you
91 01:21:58 --> 01:22:00 Want to screenshot that I
92 01:22:28 --> 01:22:33 now it shouldn't, ideally, it shouldn't come back into this little area here. If
93 01:22:33 --> 01:22:36 it does, then your interest should go to the sidelines and wait for the
94 01:22:36 --> 01:22:44 afternoon. Otherwise, I would want to see it trade back up to the 930 opening
95 01:22:44 --> 01:22:48 price, or which is the Opening range, gap Low I
96 01:26:20 --> 01:26:45 You want to screenshot that and be content for today, I'm going to leave
97 01:26:45 --> 01:26:48 the chart like this for a second, so that way you can get a screenshot of it.
98 01:26:49 --> 01:26:56 Caleb, you're welcome to use this chart. It's a lot going on inside of it.
99 01:27:01 --> 01:27:11 Okay, alright. So anyway, the all of the fair value gaps that I was annotating
100 01:27:11 --> 01:27:17 initially, while we were dropping down, they were never shaded in red. They were
101 01:27:17 --> 01:27:23 in a hue that's similar to this, meaning that I'm expecting it to be revisited
102 01:27:24 --> 01:27:29 and treated it as a inversion. And then once we traded above it, then I had the
103 01:27:29 --> 01:27:34 levels, obviously, in an orange hue that I would like. Down here, you can see how
104 01:27:34 --> 01:27:39 we had this fair value gap. After hitting the cell side, we rallied,
105 01:27:40 --> 01:27:45 created a small buy side and balance cell sign efficiency, traded down into
106 01:27:45 --> 01:27:50 it, rallied and then inside of every one of the Fairbank gaps, I annotated, look
107 01:27:50 --> 01:27:54 how it was accumulating. That means it's staying inside of them long enough just
108 01:27:54 --> 01:28:00 to absorb anyone that would be trying to sell against it. So high frequency
109 01:28:00 --> 01:28:08 trading algorithms would accumulate that for long entries again, here the
110 01:28:08 --> 01:28:17 breaker, which is the low, highest candle, lower low than the previous
111 01:28:18 --> 01:28:25 after sell side has been taken. We accumulate at the low end of that
112 01:28:25 --> 01:28:32 breaker. See that accumulation in here, and then rally up. The bodies are
113 01:28:32 --> 01:28:37 respecting the breaker. We stab down inside of it. That's normal. This is all
114 01:28:37 --> 01:28:42 a bunch of Mohawks on a higher Time Frame chart because it's a 15 second
115 01:28:42 --> 01:28:48 chart. So study your one minute, two minute, three minute charts. In here,
116 01:28:49 --> 01:28:53 you'll see that they're just they're just wicking below the new week opening
117 01:28:53 --> 01:28:59 gap low. Then we rallied up, spent a little bit of time here on two candles
118 01:28:59 --> 01:29:08 inside of the gap here, rallies up, accumulates more lungs in here. This was
119 01:29:08 --> 01:29:12 a one minute fair value I got. So just watch the stream again. Then it rallies
120 01:29:12 --> 01:29:16 up. It's also the consequent encroachment of the new week opening gap
121 01:29:17 --> 01:29:22 midpoint. And I told you it should spend time up here, it's normal, but not come
122 01:29:22 --> 01:29:28 back down, optimal. If it stays open here, this is a breakaway gap. Well, I'm
123 01:29:28 --> 01:29:33 sorry, a measuring gap. I'm sorry. I apologize, meaning that half of the move
124 01:29:33 --> 01:29:34 if we take it like this, I'm
125 01:29:47 --> 01:29:53 right there. So what I'm doing is I'm measuring a low the actual level, not
126 01:29:53 --> 01:29:57 the wick. That's the level I was looking for the cell side to be treated, to go
127 01:29:57 --> 01:30:03 back and watch the string. I'm. And I'm pulling the fit up to 50% of the low of
128 01:30:03 --> 01:30:11 that gap. That gives me the the fair level to reach for because a full run on
129 01:30:11 --> 01:30:17 that would be to this level up here. Let me put the lines on because you don't
130 01:30:17 --> 01:30:27 see them, picking them up. There we are. So it's the low the level itself, not
131 01:30:27 --> 01:30:33 the low of candlesticks. Drag it up, the low of the the gap. That's approximate
132 01:30:34 --> 01:30:39 midpoints. This is a measuring gap. So this run up should draw to, if it's in a
133 01:30:39 --> 01:30:44 perfect world, it would draw to this level up here, which is also the opening
134 01:30:44 --> 01:30:48 range gap, lower quadrant level. So it's kind of neat how it overlaps, but it's
135 01:30:48 --> 01:30:53 not required, because our target was the opening price at 930 which is the low of
136 01:30:53 --> 01:30:58 the opening range gap. So this would be low hanging fruit. Objective, perfect.
137 01:30:58 --> 01:31:02 Perfection would be these two levels agreeing which is the lower quadrant of
138 01:31:02 --> 01:31:08 the opening range gap, and the measuring gap here. So that's just something else.
139 01:31:08 --> 01:31:12 You can go do a Hardy Boys mystery and see if you can find that in your retail
140 01:31:12 --> 01:31:19 books too. Alright, so I'm going to spend a couple minutes explaining the
141 01:31:19 --> 01:31:24 the difference between two types of New Day opening gaps. Okay, there's there's
142 01:31:24 --> 01:31:30 two of them. When I first introduced it, I mentioned how where the regular
143 01:31:30 --> 01:31:39 trading hours close at 4:14pm, Eastern Time, where that settlement price is.
144 01:31:40 --> 01:31:43 Then we usually don't see anything else. If you're watching river trading hours,
145 01:31:43 --> 01:31:47 it stops. It stops. You don't see anything on your chart. You have to
146 01:31:47 --> 01:31:52 switch over to electronic trading hours. Then it'll trade from 4:15pm eastern
147 01:31:52 --> 01:32:01 time to 6pm Eastern Time, and I'm sorry, to 5pm eastern time, then it stops, and
148 01:32:01 --> 01:32:05 there's a one hour pause where there's no trading at all. Then it resumes at
149 01:32:05 --> 01:32:12 six o'clock. So you have two settlement prices. You have one at 4:14pm Eastern
150 01:32:12 --> 01:32:18 Time, and you have one at 5pm Eastern Time. The first new day opening gap that
151 01:32:18 --> 01:32:23 I taught you was the 5pm Eastern Time. Settlement price, to the new session
152 01:32:23 --> 01:32:28 opening at 6pm Eastern Time, which is one hour later when I was first teaching
153 01:32:28 --> 01:32:33 it. Go back and listen to it. I say that there's a another gap that I'll teach
154 01:32:33 --> 01:32:39 you at a later time. That's today, when you use the 414, settlement price. There
155 01:32:39 --> 01:32:44 is no 1645, I have a student to ask me on Twitter. That's not, that's not a
156 01:32:44 --> 01:32:48 time for a gap, okay, that's, that's, that's completely something you're
157 01:32:48 --> 01:32:53 making up. It has nothing to do with within algorithms doing. Okay, so I want
158 01:32:54 --> 01:32:58 you to take a look at these levels here I have annotated over here. I
159 01:33:05 --> 01:33:08 give me one second. I just want to see if it'll run up there and touch the
160 01:33:08 --> 01:33:13 upper quadrant level. My obsessive compulsive is flaring. It may not. I
161 01:33:13 --> 01:33:16 just want to give it a chance to do it. We've been together for a little while
162 01:33:16 --> 01:33:30 today. So so there are two there are two times for my new day opening gap, okay,
163 01:33:30 --> 01:33:31 and I'll take this out for you. I'm
164 01:34:24 --> 01:34:27 twisted Knife, ICT, and then there is a
165 01:34:54 --> 01:35:01 okay. They are the only these are the two new day opening gaps. The one here.
166 01:35:02 --> 01:35:09 This is what you've been watching me use for several months now. Okay, and when I
167 01:35:09 --> 01:35:13 first introduced it, I mentioned that you can still, you can run it off of the
168 01:35:13 --> 01:35:17 414 but that's entirely something different. I wanted everybody to focus
169 01:35:17 --> 01:35:23 on how price uses this one. There is no advantages over either one of them. They
170 01:35:23 --> 01:35:32 both work. Sometimes you're going to get a day where the 6pm opening eastern time
171 01:35:32 --> 01:35:37 when there's that hour break, sometimes the close at five o'clock Eastern time
172 01:35:38 --> 01:35:43 is the same opening price. So the way we work with that is we simply just
173 01:35:43 --> 01:35:47 annotate that level, because it's going to be key, but we revert back to the new
174 01:35:47 --> 01:35:51 day opening gap, regular trading hours closed to electronic trading hours open.
175 01:35:51 --> 01:35:57 So it's 4:14pm eastern time to 6pm Eastern time. Okay, so let me show you
176 01:35:57 --> 01:36:05 what that looks like. These levels were based on Thursday. The reason why I kept
177 01:36:05 --> 01:36:10 it on the chart, because I want you to think about how price was Using them on
178 01:36:10 --> 01:36:13 Friday and on Monday and today, I
179 01:36:40 --> 01:37:07 I just realized I'm on a 15 second chart. So give me a second. You want to
180 01:37:07 --> 01:37:15 do these on a one minute chart. So when you're toggling your we'll come back to
181 01:37:15 --> 01:37:20 the Mondays in a second, when you're annotating your new day opening gaps use
182 01:37:20 --> 01:37:21 a one minute chart.
183 01:37:32 --> 01:37:38 This purple shaded area is the September 19, 2024, New Day opening gap. This is
184 01:37:38 --> 01:37:42 electronic trading hours closed to electronic trading hours open. So that's
185 01:37:42 --> 01:37:43 what that is there.
186 01:37:56 --> 01:38:00 You see the difference everything here. So this candlestick go a little bit
187 01:38:00 --> 01:38:01 wider for that.
188 01:38:07 --> 01:38:13 Okay, so that candlestick right there is 4:14pm do not use 415 because there is
189 01:38:13 --> 01:38:18 no 415 it's closed. So there's no opening price because the market stops.
190 01:38:18 --> 01:38:23 So you have to use the final print on 414, candlestick on a one minute chart.
191 01:38:23 --> 01:38:26 That's what's annotated here, and you can see that that's what is highlighted
192 01:38:26 --> 01:38:32 here. So I'm highlighting That's Thursday, September 19, 2024, new day,
193 01:38:32 --> 01:38:38 opening gap, relative, I'm sorry, relative, regulatory hours, closing
194 01:38:38 --> 01:38:44 price. That's this candlestick here, then up here, Thursday, September 19,
195 01:38:44 --> 01:38:48 2024 new day opening gap, electronic trading hours open. That's the first
196 01:38:48 --> 01:38:52 opening price at the six o'clock candle. See that down at the bottom of the
197 01:38:52 --> 01:39:00 chart, down here, look down here. That's six o'clock. This is the other form of
198 01:39:00 --> 01:39:06 my new day opening gap. The one you're used to seeing is this one where it's
199 01:39:06 --> 01:39:13 electronic trading hours close here at the 459 candlestick, close to the open
200 01:39:13 --> 01:39:18 at six o'clock. That's the difference. See, there's a big disparity between
201 01:39:18 --> 01:39:24 both of them, but they're both being utilized. Watch, look how often price is
202 01:39:24 --> 01:39:31 reacting off of it. See it here. Here we're going to focus on the lines. Not
203 01:39:31 --> 01:39:34 don't look at the purple one. You're welcome to look at that one too. But
204 01:39:34 --> 01:39:41 what I want you to notice is how these two levels here are used by price sweep
205 01:39:41 --> 01:39:47 it just to go into an imbalance and a civi sells off. Beautiful delivery there
206 01:39:49 --> 01:39:53 relative equal highs, sweep it, Turtle suit, sell side,
207 01:39:59 --> 01:40:04 trades up into it. Sells off, builds buy side at that level, worried about these
208 01:40:04 --> 01:40:10 relative equal highs, hammers it perfectly. Find some support here.
209 01:40:10 --> 01:40:20 Rallies up top of the city agrees with it here, before it sells off, I'm the
210 01:40:25 --> 01:40:32 beautiful work off of the um, the high that the body. Look at the body, how it
211 01:40:32 --> 01:40:36 ran up here, but the body stayed underneath it. That means we're likely
212 01:40:36 --> 01:40:45 to go lower and we'll go into Monday's trading, okay?
213 01:40:50 --> 01:40:54 And then we have new week opening gap. So here's the opening price on Sunday
214 01:40:55 --> 01:41:00 and the closing price here on 459, candle again, always on a one minute
215 01:41:00 --> 01:41:06 chart. That's where you get your levels from beautiful delivery,
216 01:41:21 --> 01:41:24 even in all the mud. Look
217 01:41:34 --> 01:41:42 at that over here too. Crochet of the wick falls right on that level. That
218 01:41:42 --> 01:41:47 volume imbalance here, close proximity that as well. So it comes back up,
219 01:41:47 --> 01:41:58 redelivers into that, then sells off. Look at the top of it here, consequent
220 01:41:58 --> 01:41:59 encroachment of it here. And
221 01:42:08 --> 01:42:08 beautiful. And
222 01:42:16 --> 01:42:22 then we had seek and destroy yesterday, where we were working through the low of
223 01:42:22 --> 01:42:32 it. And this is Thursday's information. So when we have things like the close at
224 01:42:32 --> 01:42:38 459 and then the reopen at 6pm eastern time, when that hour break takes place,
225 01:42:38 --> 01:42:42 if the year, if there is no gap there, then you re then you revert back to
226 01:42:42 --> 01:42:46 using the second new day opening gap that I've just shown you here, which is
227 01:42:46 --> 01:42:51 414, settlement, price to 6pm opening okay, that that's it. There's no,
228 01:42:51 --> 01:42:56 there's no other new day opening gaps. That's the way it is. That's what the
229 01:42:56 --> 01:43:00 algorithm is going to refer back to, and that's what you should be sorry. That's
230 01:43:00 --> 01:43:01 what you should be focusing on.
231 01:43:07 --> 01:43:10 And then back to consequent encouragement, oh, the opening range
232 01:43:10 --> 01:43:19 gap. So anyway, I went through a lot of stuff today without saying much. The
233 01:43:19 --> 01:43:24 chart did all the talking for you, and I'm going to determine whether or not I
234 01:43:24 --> 01:43:28 want to come back this afternoon. If I feel like doing it. I'll trade in front
235 01:43:28 --> 01:43:32 of you in the afternoon. But if it doesn't look like it's going to behave
236 01:43:32 --> 01:43:36 well for me, I'll let you know on my community post on the YouTube channel.
237 01:43:37 --> 01:43:40 Hopefully you found everything that I showed you here today, insightful.
238 01:43:40 --> 01:43:43 Hopefully you're able to follow along and watch how all the PDA race I was
239 01:43:43 --> 01:43:47 dressing up beforehand, how they would be utilized for a market maker, buy
240 01:43:47 --> 01:43:52 model. So until talk to you tomorrow or later on this afternoon, should I do?
241 01:43:52 --> 01:43:53 So? Be safe. You.