ICT YT - 2024-09-04 - ICT Tutelage Journal Log Sep 3 2024

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-09-08 11:48
1 00:00:39 --> 00:00:43 ICT: Weekly chart, as you can see up Here in the upper left hand corner, we
2 00:00:43 --> 00:00:49 have relative equal lows down here, so we may have turned the corner and going
3 00:00:49 --> 00:00:55 into the latter portions of this year, it would wouldn't be surprising to see
4 00:00:55 --> 00:01:01 it come down here with all the the election antics that may be coming our
5 00:01:01 --> 00:01:07 way, but the bare shoulder blocking here, I've noted that we have a swing
6 00:01:07 --> 00:01:13 high, and now we have had the market break below the previous weekly
7 00:01:13 --> 00:01:20 candlestick low. This inefficiency in here, it can drop down into that then we
8 00:01:20 --> 00:01:24 have this wick which will will address that when we get closer to it. Should we
9 00:01:24 --> 00:01:32 do that? But right now, I have this wick graded so words, it's the high, which is
10 00:01:32 --> 00:01:37 the close of that candlestick. Double quadrant, consequent encouragement,
11 00:01:38 --> 00:01:43 because we treat wicks like gaps, lower quadrant and the low of that wick,
12 00:01:48 --> 00:01:57 driving down to a daily chart. Those ingredients on that weekly candlesticks,
13 00:01:57 --> 00:02:03 discount wick. We broke through that, and we're trading down into the daily
14 00:02:04 --> 00:02:08 fair value gap here. This is a buy side of balance, outside of efficiency. So we
15 00:02:08 --> 00:02:13 hit the top of that today, and we'll be looking to see if we can make further
16 00:02:14 --> 00:02:18 traction lower. I'd like to see it get below this and come back up and act as
17 00:02:18 --> 00:02:23 resistance. And then it would have to have some kind of a really energetic run
18 00:02:23 --> 00:02:28 to get throw all this back and forth in here we have this wick again. We'll
19 00:02:28 --> 00:02:32 address that. Should we start to break down a little bit more. But this looks
20 00:02:32 --> 00:02:38 pretty good. The only thing that changes the immediate bearish stance I hold now
21 00:02:38 --> 00:02:43 is if we trade back above consequent encroachment of that red level right
22 00:02:43 --> 00:02:50 there. Okay, and that's based on the weekly discount wick. This one here. Let
23 00:02:50 --> 00:02:52 me make sure you can it's
24 00:02:57 --> 00:03:02 got to get above the upper half of this wick, and that's going to be defined by
25 00:03:02 --> 00:03:07 that red level. Okay, all right. And now we're going to take a look at what price
26 00:03:07 --> 00:03:15 has done today with these quadrant levels, with this volume imbalance.
27 00:03:15 --> 00:03:19 Notice that I have the settlement toggled to blue on the daily chart.
28 00:03:20 --> 00:03:27 You'll get this volume and bounce when you do that. Now everything transposed
29 00:03:28 --> 00:03:32 that was highlighted and addressed on the weekly and daily chart, dropping
30 00:03:32 --> 00:03:37 down into a 15 minute time frame. And see here at midnight, New York, local
31 00:03:37 --> 00:03:43 time, get buy side. Hit that turtle suit breaks down. We have a nice Sibi here.
32 00:03:44 --> 00:03:48 So it's a fair value gap, the high and the low of it on the 15 and time frame.
33 00:03:48 --> 00:03:54 This is the upper quadrant of that weekly discount wick. Is the upper
34 00:03:54 --> 00:03:57 quadrant, the midpoint of it, or consequent encroachment, the lower
35 00:03:57 --> 00:04:02 quadrant and the low of that weekly discount wick that's these levels are,
36 00:04:02 --> 00:04:08 and this is the high of it. Okay, so we hit it here, going into or right before
37 00:04:08 --> 00:04:14 nine o'clock. We broke down. We traded through the daily volume imbalance.
38 00:04:16 --> 00:04:22 Again, that is this here, the separation between those candles closed and this
39 00:04:22 --> 00:04:29 candles open. That's what I'm highlighting there. Okay, the bodies we
40 00:04:29 --> 00:04:33 sliced through it and came right back up, perfectly to consequent
41 00:04:33 --> 00:04:39 encroachment. Broke below the midpoint, decisively immediate rebalance. It
42 00:04:39 --> 00:04:46 touches this candlestick here, breaks lower bearish order block, but it's also
43 00:04:46 --> 00:04:53 the top of the Fairey gap city. It's this in here, and this is the same
44 00:04:54 --> 00:04:59 Fairey yet city low, and you can see that that just poked the toe of the.
45 00:05:00 --> 00:05:04 Water right there. All these levels were starting on the 15 minute time frame,
46 00:05:04 --> 00:05:08 the daily and the weekly. When we drop down to the five and one minute chart,
47 00:05:08 --> 00:05:12 everything will start to make a lot more sense, because you're going to control
48 00:05:12 --> 00:05:17 your impulses by watching the order flow on that 15 minute time frame. Because
49 00:05:17 --> 00:05:21 your 15 minute time frame, that's your Bellwether time frame, that means the
50 00:05:21 --> 00:05:25 majority of what you're looking for intraday should be controlled and or
51 00:05:25 --> 00:05:29 driven by like it's air traffic control. Basically. Think of it like that one
52 00:05:29 --> 00:05:32 minute charts and five minute charts, or anything less than a month chart.
53 00:05:32 --> 00:05:36 There's going to be lots of movement, okay, lots of movement around the
54 00:05:36 --> 00:05:41 airspace in that intraday session or that trading day. So you want to control
55 00:05:41 --> 00:05:46 all of your air traffic control with that 15 minute time frame. So by having
56 00:05:46 --> 00:05:52 all these reference points here, what we're saying is, is we went below, made
57 00:05:52 --> 00:05:56 this fair value gap, couldn't break through. The bodies are saying that we
58 00:05:56 --> 00:06:00 can't get in there and broke away. Okay? That means we're bearish. It's broke
59 00:06:00 --> 00:06:04 aggressively down hard through the daily bump I bounce came back consequent
60 00:06:04 --> 00:06:10 encroachment. Was it heavy? Yes, we created a immediate rebalance here. Next
61 00:06:10 --> 00:06:13 candle, we dropped down, couldn't even come back up to hit that as a bare
62 00:06:13 --> 00:06:19 shoulder block stayed in the lower level and just got involved. This candle
63 00:06:19 --> 00:06:22 sticks high and then rolled over again. So institutional order flow entry drill,
64 00:06:23 --> 00:06:27 and then we have a bearish order block here. We worked it several times, and it
65 00:06:27 --> 00:06:32 ultimately broke lower when we get to the end of the lunch hour, which is
66 00:06:32 --> 00:06:37 1:30pm Eastern Standard Time. And we broke again aggressively. And we keep
67 00:06:37 --> 00:06:41 seeing the market only see the lower half of the premium, PDA, raise or fail
68 00:06:41 --> 00:06:47 to get to them at all. That's a very weak market, and ultimately, trading
69 00:06:47 --> 00:06:52 down to August 13, 2024 is daily. Fair Value got high, and you can see that on
70 00:06:52 --> 00:07:02 the daily chart. All right, here on a five minute chart, you can see the same
71 00:07:02 --> 00:07:08 things occurring here, working that fair value gap, sippy low, and again, I'm
72 00:07:08 --> 00:07:13 highlighting and managing the annotations that way I know what I'm
73 00:07:13 --> 00:07:18 referencing and how it's anchored to the price chart. This level is anchored to
74 00:07:18 --> 00:07:25 what time frame, 15 minute. This is a immediate rebalance on a 15 minute time
75 00:07:25 --> 00:07:29 frame. Notice that it doesn't look so clear, and that's why it's important
76 00:07:29 --> 00:07:33 that you manage your annotations correctly, otherwise you'll lose all of
77 00:07:33 --> 00:07:37 the insight that you're getting by watching these lower time frames. I have
78 00:07:37 --> 00:07:42 these levels on a notepad as they form, I write them down, and I'm constantly
79 00:07:42 --> 00:07:46 referring back to what price is doing and where it's at in relationship to
80 00:07:46 --> 00:07:50 that. So that's why I don't have it on my charts. I did an execution today,
81 00:07:51 --> 00:07:54 working with the afternoon session, and I'll review that at the end of this
82 00:07:54 --> 00:07:57 presentation. But this is what your chart should look like as it's being
83 00:07:57 --> 00:08:02 annotated, and you're managing all the time frames, how they're anchored, what
84 00:08:02 --> 00:08:07 PD array they are, and noticing how they are behaving. They're working the lower
85 00:08:07 --> 00:08:11 half. When it's premium arrays, they can't trade in an upper half. It means
86 00:08:11 --> 00:08:15 institutional order flow is bearish. And it's not just bearish. It's extremely
87 00:08:15 --> 00:08:19 bearish, not just well, it might go a little bit lower. It's heavy, really,
88 00:08:19 --> 00:08:24 really heavy. All right? And right, let's zoom in here on a one minute
89 00:08:24 --> 00:08:29 chart. You can see that we had worked that fair value gap city low based on
90 00:08:29 --> 00:08:35 the 15 time frame right up in here, and broke lower worked perfectly to the
91 00:08:35 --> 00:08:39 daily volume of balance consequent encroachment there. And then we had our
92 00:08:39 --> 00:08:47 small, little fair value gap right here, breaks lower, trades back up in you can
93 00:08:47 --> 00:08:52 annotate as a bearish order block if you want, drops lower and again, look how
94 00:08:52 --> 00:08:56 price is being controlled by that 15 minute time frame. Every annotation.
95 00:08:57 --> 00:09:00 Look what's going on the bodies are doing what, respecting that 15 minute
96 00:09:00 --> 00:09:09 order flow, no volume profile, no B wop, no depth of market, no ladders, no level
97 00:09:09 --> 00:09:13 two data required open, high, low and close or in a candlestick will tell you
98 00:09:13 --> 00:09:22 everything based on time, first And then price. The market breaks lower reaches
99 00:09:22 --> 00:09:29 down into the lower quadrant of that weekly candlesticks wick. And again,
100 00:09:29 --> 00:09:32 it's the midpoint of it. That's the upper quadrant, and the lower is this
101 00:09:32 --> 00:09:35 dark line here. So that's why you wanna make sure that you annotate your chart.
102 00:09:35 --> 00:09:40 Now, you can dress those levels up and annotate them with text for your own
103 00:09:40 --> 00:09:44 charts, but I know what I'm looking at, and I don't need to move my charts. I
104 00:09:44 --> 00:09:52 use the raw data. Okay? And now let's take a closer look at that one minute
105 00:09:52 --> 00:09:58 chart at the opening bell at 930 so we trade up in the console encroachment of
106 00:09:58 --> 00:10:04 the daily volume. Balance. And here is first presented fair value gap. So this
107 00:10:04 --> 00:10:08 is the first presentation of a fair value gap. It's extremely small, but
108 00:10:08 --> 00:10:12 guess what? It's just that's what it's going to be. It's a wide you know, why
109 00:10:12 --> 00:10:16 fight it or resist it? So the market creates a little bit of material soup
110 00:10:16 --> 00:10:19 here. After hitting conquest, encroachment breaks lower, we have a
111 00:10:19 --> 00:10:23 fair value gap there. I'm not annotating that because I want you to see the
112 00:10:23 --> 00:10:27 relationship to that first presentation of the bearish fair value gap right
113 00:10:27 --> 00:10:34 there. Look at that beautiful bang hits. It breaks lower. Then we have another
114 00:10:34 --> 00:10:37 fair value gap. But this is a reclaimed fair value gap, because when it broke
115 00:10:37 --> 00:10:41 lower, if price goes up into it here, normally, when you see a city like this
116 00:10:41 --> 00:10:47 and price breaks below it, if you can come back up into it, it can act as a
117 00:10:47 --> 00:10:50 premium array to sell short from. But if it trades through it and comes back
118 00:10:50 --> 00:10:53 down, breaks below it, and it offers one more opportunity to go into that same
119 00:10:53 --> 00:10:59 thing that's a reclaimed bearish There you go. Market breaks aggressively lower
120 00:10:59 --> 00:11:04 using the immediate rebalance on the 50 minute time frame. Again, look at the
121 00:11:04 --> 00:11:10 bodies. We get these little parent price action and breaks lower. But it's also
122 00:11:10 --> 00:11:17 using a bearish order block on this a minute time frame. Notice the limit up
123 00:11:17 --> 00:11:22 here. Breaks aggressively institutional or flow integral here, no close of the
124 00:11:22 --> 00:11:26 full sell side of balance by side efficiency breaks aggressively lower and
125 00:11:26 --> 00:11:34 then trades into consolidation going into the lunch macro. Now this is what
126 00:11:34 --> 00:11:37 it looks like with regular trading hours. You can see that toggle down
127 00:11:37 --> 00:11:44 here, RTH, and we had a huge opening gap. So we had a discount opening range
128 00:11:44 --> 00:11:51 gap that never got traded to. It opened right there and just stayed heavy. That
129 00:11:51 --> 00:11:55 sometimes is, again, very indicative of the market wanting to get somewhere very
130 00:11:55 --> 00:11:59 quickly. It couldn't even come back to make an attempt to touch it, let alone
131 00:11:59 --> 00:12:07 trade back into the halfway point. All right, on your charts, for those that
132 00:12:07 --> 00:12:14 are watching eavesdropping, the lows I mentioned here over a week ago, I told
133 00:12:14 --> 00:12:19 you that watch these lows here, and then there's an inefficiency with that order
134 00:12:19 --> 00:12:23 block as well. But I mentioned specifically these two lows here, and I
135 00:12:23 --> 00:12:29 said if we start to fell out of bed, we would see 19,100.50 and I believe I said
136 00:12:29 --> 00:12:32 that the beginning of last week in the live stream. So I'll count you to go
137 00:12:32 --> 00:12:35 back and look at that. Anyone that's been following along and doing due
138 00:12:35 --> 00:12:39 diligence with their note taking, they have this information in there, but you
139 00:12:39 --> 00:12:48 can also still find in live streams. So it's the cell side here, and that fair
140 00:12:48 --> 00:12:52 value gap. So the green box and this red level at 19, 100.50
141 00:12:54 --> 00:12:59 that's what it's anchored to. Okay, so it's Wednesday, the 14th of 2024, you
142 00:12:59 --> 00:13:03 can see that. That's the information for that individual fair value gap. That's
143 00:13:03 --> 00:13:06 what I'm highlighting here. That's why you see the date down here, so that when
144 00:13:06 --> 00:13:10 you are screenshotting for your journaling Caleb, you want to make sure
145 00:13:10 --> 00:13:13 you're putting your cursor right over top of the very specific fair value
146 00:13:13 --> 00:13:21 gaps, or PDA race, and when you do that down here in your date and time access.
147 00:13:21 --> 00:13:25 Down here, this is your price axis on the right. The bottom is your time and
148 00:13:25 --> 00:13:29 date access. So whatever you're highlighting with your cursor, make sure
149 00:13:29 --> 00:13:34 you're touching the right one like that, and it'll show at the bottom that it is
150 00:13:34 --> 00:13:40 the Wednesday, August 14, 2024, 3:45pm, Eastern, Standard Time, fair value gap.
151 00:13:40 --> 00:13:46 So with those two reference points, when we go to the present market view of
152 00:13:47 --> 00:13:53 today, you can see now on a one minute chart, working with the afternoon. Now,
153 00:13:53 --> 00:13:56 before I get into this real quick, this is the part where I'm reviewing the
154 00:13:56 --> 00:14:03 trade idea. I counted you all in many, many lectures that you don't want to be
155 00:14:03 --> 00:14:06 trading in the morning session immediately after a holiday, but you can
156 00:14:06 --> 00:14:10 trade the afternoon, Wednesday afternoon, 1:30pm that's the end of the
157 00:14:10 --> 00:14:14 launch hour. So lunch hour is technically two hours long. It's 1130 in
158 00:14:14 --> 00:14:18 the morning, New York local time to 130 in afternoon, New York local time. So
159 00:14:18 --> 00:14:24 you can see we had a sippy here. Trades up into that rejects another Sibi trade
160 00:14:24 --> 00:14:28 up in consequent encouragement of that. And this is a fake bull flag, and we
161 00:14:28 --> 00:14:33 broke down this rally up in here, I'm trading into a bearish order block on
162 00:14:33 --> 00:14:38 the 50 minute time frame, and it breaks lower, and it gives me an opportunity to
163 00:14:38 --> 00:14:41 trade in here one more time when this candle opens up and stabs up into this
164 00:14:41 --> 00:14:44 little bit of a range I'm trying to get. Trying to get short in there as well,
165 00:14:44 --> 00:14:49 and then it breaks again. We have a bearish order block. I'm targeting that
166 00:14:49 --> 00:14:53 right there. So when it rallies, I'm expecting it to really start to spool
167 00:14:53 --> 00:14:59 lower. Why? Because we're in the macro 1:50pm to 210, that's when the market's
168 00:14:59 --> 00:15:04 going. Really aggressive run for liquidity. Where's the liquidity? I saw
169 00:15:04 --> 00:15:10 a guy, Harry, I think his name was, says you didn't, you didn't go short. Going
170 00:15:10 --> 00:15:16 to macro at 150 you went short at 140 you don't need to correct me. Okay,
171 00:15:16 --> 00:15:21 that's an observation for you, and this is where you're learning I'm shorting,
172 00:15:21 --> 00:15:28 but I'm expecting price between the 150 to 210 to start spooling. It means it's
173 00:15:28 --> 00:15:33 going to run to where the liquidity is, which is where below that 19,100.50 I
174 00:15:33 --> 00:15:37 told you about last week. So when I tell you about these levels, if it gives me a
175 00:15:37 --> 00:15:41 setup, I'm going to trade them. If I don't have a setup, and it's not useful
176 00:15:41 --> 00:15:44 information. It's only when the time and price in the setup is there, then
177 00:15:44 --> 00:15:48 there's something to talk about, because you saw the execution video, and you'll
178 00:15:48 --> 00:15:53 see the execution video link in the in the comment section, or not the comment
179 00:15:53 --> 00:15:59 section, but the description of this presentation on Sun's YouTube channel.
180 00:15:59 --> 00:16:03 And then here's that green shading box, which is the fair value gap on that
181 00:16:05 --> 00:16:12 August 13, or whatever date it was, paper lower. And now watch between here
182 00:16:12 --> 00:16:18 and here. That's a fair value gap. And I want to get towards the end of the
183 00:16:18 --> 00:16:24 bottom of that fair value. Got the shading green I just showed you, and I
184 00:16:24 --> 00:16:28 want to get close to consequent encroachment of that 15 minute time
185 00:16:28 --> 00:16:33 frame, Sibi. It doesn't look like a city here because I'm looking at a one minute
186 00:16:33 --> 00:16:39 chart. So if I have that information shown like this, I'm putting a fib on
187 00:16:39 --> 00:16:44 that low to that high, and it's basically framing the midpoint or
188 00:16:44 --> 00:16:50 consequent encroachment of the fair value gap, or city that's framed here.
189 00:16:50 --> 00:16:55 Go back and watch the video again. You'll see these levels are a 15 minute
190 00:16:55 --> 00:16:59 time frame fair value gap. It's a city, and I don't have the consequent
191 00:16:59 --> 00:17:03 encroachment highlighted here, but I'm doing it here to show you my exit that I
192 00:17:03 --> 00:17:08 move my limit order on while being short, selling into the 15 minute
193 00:17:08 --> 00:17:12 bearish order block. That little open and stabbing up. I'm getting short
194 00:17:12 --> 00:17:16 written into that range as it does that. And then I'm trading that bearish order
195 00:17:16 --> 00:17:20 block right there. And then one more time I added there just because I wanted
196 00:17:20 --> 00:17:23 to throw in there. One more because I saw a comment saying that you don't make
197 00:17:23 --> 00:17:30 $20,000 a day. That's kind of so I did another execution to show 20,000 again.
198 00:17:31 --> 00:17:36 So sorry, Caleb, I'm sorry I forgot where I was at. The limit order is
199 00:17:36 --> 00:17:42 basically towards the end or bottom of that green shaded fair value gap, and
200 00:17:42 --> 00:17:47 it's also as close as I can get to the consequent encouragement of this 15
201 00:17:47 --> 00:17:52 minute Sibi. So I'm trying to finesse basically both of those levels, trying
202 00:17:52 --> 00:17:55 to get close to it. And I didn't get all this, and that's fine. It's okay. And
203 00:17:55 --> 00:17:59 actually went a little bit lower later on the afternoon. But there's the
204 00:17:59 --> 00:18:03 there's the details. You can see all the entry prices, all the arrows and
205 00:18:03 --> 00:18:09 whatnot. And I, I showed that in the recording as well on my channel. But
206 00:18:09 --> 00:18:14 this is the last portion of the day. And Caleb, this is your homework. And for
207 00:18:14 --> 00:18:17 everyone else that's watching, this is your homework as well. You are told and
208 00:18:17 --> 00:18:23 taught where the last hour of trading the four macros are, label your chart
209 00:18:23 --> 00:18:27 with those four macros and highlight anything and everything that is
210 00:18:27 --> 00:18:30 pertinent to you. It's not something that I'm going to show you, okay, but I
211 00:18:30 --> 00:18:35 want you to start looking for things in that last hour. The more time you study
212 00:18:35 --> 00:18:39 it with the references, in terms of the time I've given you, look at the
213 00:18:39 --> 00:18:45 previous lecture I gave on live stream or recorded video on my on my channel, I
214 00:18:45 --> 00:18:49 showed the actual four macros in that last hour, three o'clock to four
215 00:18:49 --> 00:18:54 o'clock. And you'll see a lot of setups in here that were based around that,
216 00:18:54 --> 00:18:55 that premise you