ICT YT - 2024-08-29 - ICT 2024 Mentorship - Lecture 20
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-08-31 08:33
| 1 | 00:01:51 --> 00:02:04 | ICT: Good morning, folks, hope you're doing well, waiting here see if I can hear myself. Audio check. You're probably going to hear some landscapers outside. I |
| 2 | 00:02:04 --> 00:02:12 | was little surprised to see them starting so early, so can't be avoided after |
| 3 | 00:02:28 --> 00:02:33 | obviously too long of a delay. Landscapers outside |
| 4 | 00:02:42 --> 00:02:51 | see if I can get this latency up, I can change it, or I'm not sure I can do that once I start the stream, kind |
| 5 | 00:02:59 --> 00:03:13 | of okay, well, we're gonna have to call things way in advance then. So what we'll have to do is endure this one. It won't be all that time sensitive, but |
| 6 | 00:03:13 --> 00:03:30 | the the comments section is usually littered with folks that are outside the English language, and they're looking for closed captions and subtitles. And if |
| 7 | 00:03:30 --> 00:03:39 | you use the lowest setting for latency on the live stream, every live streamer or a giver live stream, or if you want to look it up and check it yourself, |
| 8 | 00:03:39 --> 00:03:52 | you'll see what I'm saying is true. It doesn't allow you to do subtitles, I guess because the latency is so low. So from the time I say something, in time |
| 9 | 00:03:52 --> 00:04:02 | you receive it, it doesn't, it doesn't, apparently, have enough time to do what is required to get them supplied to it for the live stream, but given enough |
| 10 | 00:04:02 --> 00:04:15 | time, after a while, they get populated in the recordings. I don't try to hide the subtitles. I don't turn them off manually. Sometimes this platform just does |
| 11 | 00:04:15 --> 00:04:27 | what it wants to do, and isn't always what we would like to see it do. So anyway, I had this live stream today set to normal latency, meaning that |
| 12 | 00:04:27 --> 00:04:36 | whatever the normal default setting would be normally, that's what it is. That means there's going to be a little bit longer of a delay. And it's okay. I |
| 13 | 00:04:36 --> 00:04:47 | promise it's not going to hurt you, and it'll still be pertinent. I can't edit it. Whatever I say is what I see or feel is important at the time. Majority of |
| 14 | 00:04:47 --> 00:04:56 | you are watching in the in the recording anyway. So the numbers have dropped off because they don't have the they don't have the time to sit here because they're |
| 15 | 00:04:56 --> 00:05:06 | working, they're in college, or they're sleeping. So and a lot. Have more forex traders, so they're just really waiting for the little nuggets about what works |
| 16 | 00:05:06 --> 00:05:21 | here and in forex. So let me put my chart back up here. All right, so obviously, I shared something with you this morning. I get a lot of questions, and I get a |
| 17 | 00:05:21 --> 00:05:30 | lot of students asking me things that, you know, can I show how this would be done, and how can I do this, and how can I do that? Basically what I was doing |
| 18 | 00:05:30 --> 00:05:42 | with that TD Ameritrade account, and I was using a Live account to do those types of things. Here, the question came up. What happens if you get into a |
| 19 | 00:05:42 --> 00:05:53 | trade, and everything's working out well, but you haven't learned how to trail your stop loss like we were talking about yesterday, or you're growing into |
| 20 | 00:05:53 --> 00:06:03 | learning how to do that. Invariably, you're going to get stopped out. Sometimes I get stopped out prematurely, and I'll have to go back into a trade. How do I |
| 21 | 00:06:03 --> 00:06:24 | do those things? How? How do I navigate that? Well, first, there has to be some kind of a premise to it. And the idea is we have ran from yesterday. I I promise |
| 22 | 00:06:24 --> 00:06:33 | we'll get through this part before the opening bell. Just relax. I've gotten better at this. I'll believe it when I see as my wife used to say when we were |
| 23 | 00:06:33 --> 00:06:48 | younger, I'll believe it when I see it. Well, there's stuff she still can't believe and she sees it all right. So here's the business. We opened at 6pm |
| 24 | 00:06:48 --> 00:06:59 | yesterday evening with a huge gap, and if you grade this, okay, it's not quarters theory, okay, so stop calling it quarterly theory or quarters theory, |
| 25 | 00:07:00 --> 00:07:08 | okay, it's called grading an inefficiency or grading a price swing, and you learn more about that also in the core content lessons. You can find that on the |
| 26 | 00:07:09 --> 00:07:22 | 2017 mentorship and I think subsequent lessons and lectures I did, but you can do your fibs there, put the quadrants in it, and you'll see how it beautifully |
| 27 | 00:07:22 --> 00:07:33 | handles that here, here quarterly, and then it's the top of it rallies up in that fair value gap that I outlined yesterday afternoon and live session. Extend |
| 28 | 00:07:33 --> 00:07:47 | that forward. Wouldn't you know it? Look at that. So we rallied up, and we have been basically just in a strong buy program, and then Tuesday's daily low. Isn't |
| 29 | 00:07:47 --> 00:08:00 | that ironic? Tuesday's daily low when we are entering the time of day, leading up to the morning session, I action. |
| 30 | 00:08:05 --> 00:08:23 | If you look at what we have here, we have a consolidation, relatively cool lows. We rally up, accumulate, re accumulate, Smart Money reversal. Why is that smart |
| 31 | 00:08:23 --> 00:08:34 | money reversal? It's turtle suit relative equal highs. It pops through that I was not able to secure an entry on that. I was watching YouTubers, and I saw |
| 32 | 00:08:34 --> 00:08:45 | YouTuber talk about what they feel the NASDAQ was going to do, and true to fashion, I had to be a contrarian and go in here and fade that individual, but I |
| 33 | 00:08:45 --> 00:08:54 | had to wait for the order block here, which is a small breaker in itself, but this is the larger one. I like that. That's why it's annotated that way. But |
| 34 | 00:08:54 --> 00:09:04 | that is the change in the state of delivery. It's this candle and this candle together makes up a bare shorter block, but it's the opening price, the lowest |
| 35 | 00:09:04 --> 00:09:15 | of a sec consecutive number of up close candles, the lowest open that's the change in the state of delivery. Okay, so that way we're correcting individuals |
| 36 | 00:09:15 --> 00:09:29 | out there to miss, miss, calling things. Put this one. We only have a few minutes here to knock this out. Can he do it all? Right, so this is what you see |
| 37 | 00:09:30 --> 00:09:39 | all the business here. It's not Market Replay. Market Replay doesn't let you see this stuff up here. So I'm going to take the labels off, because you can see |
| 38 | 00:09:39 --> 00:09:50 | that in the recording now, and you can watch them up here when I put my cursor over top of it. So in this wick here, I'm buying it. I'm sorry I'm selling short |
| 39 | 00:09:50 --> 00:09:59 | as it goes back up into this area here, I'm selling short again, adding more to it, and it breaks down for a small little sell side liquidity run. And then I'm |
| 40 | 00:09:59 --> 00:10:06 | using this. As the breaker I missed this open and run right back up into it. I would have been a better fill. So on the next candle, I had to get the closest |
| 41 | 00:10:06 --> 00:10:22 | thing I can do, which is that little volume imbalance right here. It drops down, small, little partial right there. And then I was watching this inversion fair |
| 42 | 00:10:22 --> 00:10:35 | value gap. This became an area to sell short in. After being stopped out on the initial run, I brought the stop down aggressively, which would have never been |
| 43 | 00:10:35 --> 00:10:44 | done if you understand the market maker sell model. You got to allow that second stage of redistribution to start delivering, and it hadn't done that yet. So |
| 44 | 00:10:45 --> 00:10:53 | what happens if you don't have to do that yet and you get stopped out well, we're trading back up into inversion fair value gap. So I went short there after |
| 45 | 00:10:53 --> 00:11:01 | being stopped out there. Watch the recording. You'll see it. And then I was building in more here, because I knew I was on side I know my mark maker sell |
| 46 | 00:11:01 --> 00:11:19 | model breaks down partial and then below the original consolidation over here, you can see all the to show off stuff, and then the balance leaving it to be |
| 47 | 00:11:19 --> 00:11:32 | stocked out, because I was make myself egg white breakfast, and it is what it is, and ultimately, where we're at now. So Tada with 30 seconds to spare. |
| 48 | 00:11:36 --> 00:11:45 | Alright, so now we're going to watch and see what we get here, and it dug down into the Tuesday's old daily low. So that's the drawn liquidity with a market |
| 49 | 00:11:45 --> 00:11:53 | maker somehow. So we're blending things. It's not just relative equal highs and relative equal lows. We're looking for other things around it, just like every |
| 50 | 00:11:53 --> 00:12:03 | up close candle is in a bare shorter block, and just like every separation between two candles with one candle in the middle is not a fair value guy. All |
| 51 | 00:12:03 --> 00:12:07 | right. So here we off the races. Okay, so now we just go through the business of |
| 52 | 00:12:13 --> 00:12:29 | hide highlighting where we are in relationship to printer trading hours. So here's that you have a really, really nice, big premium. |
| 53 | 00:12:37 --> 00:12:43 | It's going to take time for me to have all this so regular |
| 54 | 00:12:51 --> 00:13:10 | trading hours or Electronic trading hours. Excuse me, so we have left this high, this high, and we didn't get near it there. Okay, so it's still early in the |
| 55 | 00:13:10 --> 00:13:26 | game. No fair value gap is formed yet. See a buy side up here? Well, the relative equal highs. Give it time to see if it wants to get animated and run |
| 56 | 00:13:26 --> 00:13:27 | above that. |
| 57 | 00:13:35 --> 00:13:38 | And here you go. So I'm |
| 58 | 00:13:45 --> 00:13:59 | New Day opening gap at August 27 it wants to really run its run itself out above here be reasonable to see it reach up into that wouldn't be out of the Question. |
| 59 | 00:13:59 --> 00:14:00 | I |
| 60 | 00:14:10 --> 00:14:13 | no Fairbank yet, yet, no first presentation. I |
| 61 | 00:14:29 --> 00:14:39 | now this candle, if it doesn't go much further where it's at than it is now, I'd like to see it settle down a little bit. This would be your first fair value gap |
| 62 | 00:14:40 --> 00:14:43 | that forms on the 931 candle |
| 63 | 00:14:53 --> 00:15:07 | I'm also illustrating today that most of here, most of what you hear when I'm real anime. It and all cussing like a sailor. That's me, like I said, being my |
| 64 | 00:15:07 --> 00:15:19 | character online to prove it, you're going to hear me talk today with no issue reaching for those types of words. So we reached to the new day, open gap high |
| 65 | 00:15:19 --> 00:15:32 | and through it. Now we have a small end of here. It's there. And if you remember yesterday, I was referring to Antonia trades live stream and my private |
| 66 | 00:15:32 --> 00:15:46 | mentorship students know this also. There's a huge pool of liquidity up here above that, 694, 75, is it? Is it? Uh, get the original anchor point for it. |
| 67 | 00:15:54 --> 00:16:16 | It's over here, right there. Okay, so it's that that says huge buy sign up here at 694, and a quarter. I'm not making a hard case that's going to go there. But, |
| 68 | 00:16:16 --> 00:16:37 | you know, it's certainly trying to get the impression that it could do that. Alright? So here's our first variable you got. She is to try to do I |
| 69 | 00:16:48 --> 00:17:01 | now you might look at this and say, Well, why don't you use this here you can, but if I'm teaching principles, we want to try to use them as I'm teaching them, |
| 70 | 00:17:02 --> 00:17:11 | like I was given an example for how to get back into a trade. You get stopped out, but not with a loss. You have a winning trade. You've had partials, you |
| 71 | 00:17:11 --> 00:17:20 | trail the stop loss and get you stopped out, but you're not taking a loss on that. But then this, the trade's still viable. Well, I executed on it, and I'm |
| 72 | 00:17:21 --> 00:17:35 | giving you lecture notes today about how to do that. All right, so we're seeing potentially the first down closed candle in this initial run here. But yes, you |
| 73 | 00:17:35 --> 00:17:47 | could take something like that, but I have a plethora of individuals saying, yeah, that's all impressive and all, but that's not, that's not the model. You |
| 74 | 00:17:47 --> 00:17:58 | don't even know what the model is. So stop, stop trying to correct me. You don't know what you're talking about yet. I have to give you smaller lessons that |
| 75 | 00:17:58 --> 00:18:07 | build on the complete model, and that's what I'm that's how I'm teaching my son. So we still didn't get a down closed yet. So it's been just a straight run up |
| 76 | 00:18:09 --> 00:18:20 | right from Jump Street. So August 18, new week, opening gap trade two here. I it. |
| 77 | 00:18:26 --> 00:18:34 | So since we've stretched out this far, I honestly would not be willing to see it come all the way back down here, just to get to that. If it's going to go up |
| 78 | 00:18:34 --> 00:18:42 | here, in this case, I'd like to see it just keep doing what it's doing here, keep driving through and then get into this liquidity, and then see if they can |
| 79 | 00:18:42 --> 00:18:55 | hold those levels. And if it can't, then this could be a draw on liquidity for the later portion of the am session or going into the afternoon. That's how I |
| 80 | 00:18:55 --> 00:19:04 | use this information. I wouldn't be interested in trying to chase it because it's too far drawn out. And if you go back, I think two weeks ago, on a Tuesday, |
| 81 | 00:19:04 --> 00:19:16 | I was mentioning how sometimes when the prices take off like this, it's okay, just let it run. It'll it'll come back to you for a low risk entry. Don't try to |
| 82 | 00:19:16 --> 00:19:26 | chase it. The first natural impulse is for you to think, well, you know, I gotta get on board? No, you don't. I mean, mass transit is a wonderful form of |
| 83 | 00:19:26 --> 00:19:33 | transportation for folks that don't have their own cars, just because they're there and just because they're driving down the road doesn't mean you gotta get |
| 84 | 00:19:33 --> 00:19:42 | out of your car to jump on that bus and take a ride. If that make any sense, just relax. And if you need a bus ride and you missed the bus at the stop, just |
| 85 | 00:19:42 --> 00:19:50 | wait 20 minutes, there'll be another one. Isn't that funny how that works out? Sounds like a macro. Oh, ICT, by |
| 86 | 00:19:58 --> 00:20:10 | the way. Daniel, thank you so much. For the Yeti. It came in the meal yesterday. Please don't send me gifts. By the way, I'm not asking for it. So here's our |
| 87 | 00:20:10 --> 00:20:20 | first drop in here, small little retracing into this inefficiency. I wouldn't I wouldn't touch it yet. Just want to sit still and relax. |
| 88 | 00:20:31 --> 00:20:45 | Would be far much more fun if I could have seen a on this candle or the very next candle drop down into that gap, or anything close in that proximity, |
| 89 | 00:20:46 --> 00:21:00 | because that would have been a wonderful setup for seeing things like a run well to these levels here, and maybe even get, if you can find the the momentum to |
| 90 | 00:21:00 --> 00:21:09 | carry us up into It really come all the way back up here and unset those individuals that have had their stops in those relative equal highs from esta |
| 91 | 00:21:09 --> 00:21:22 | and when they had the fun of riding down post Nvidia earnings. And they're now here. They're elevating again. Look at the bodies right there on the low that |
| 92 | 00:21:22 --> 00:21:37 | new eco thing got low and touching this old, new day looking gap high on August 27 so if it's going to run higher, I'd like to see it try to form some kind of a |
| 93 | 00:21:37 --> 00:21:46 | run off of this. Any more retracement makes it likely that we'll get down into this first presentation, and we'll have to see what we do. Should we get to that |
| 94 | 00:21:46 --> 00:21:47 | level? |
| 95 | 00:21:54 --> 00:22:00 | So this is a really nice opening range gap. Halfway is down here. |
| 96 | 00:22:13 --> 00:22:28 | And this will change the color resistance. Don't get lost in five commentary yesterday. You eagle eyed students of mine, noticed that when I was drawing out |
| 97 | 00:22:28 --> 00:22:41 | the first presentation, it had a volume announce in it. And if you have watched my live streams, where I usually edit that stuff out when I'm recording pre |
| 98 | 00:22:41 --> 00:22:55 | recorded commentary or execution, whatever the the magnet setting I have when I'm moving things around, it's locked to strong, but not strongest. So that way, |
| 99 | 00:22:55 --> 00:23:05 | when I'm moving things around on the chart, it'll automatically snap to the Open, High, lower close of the candlestick. See what this did. Just jumped so |
| 100 | 00:23:05 --> 00:23:16 | because my prescription on my glasses are not updated yet, and I gotta pick them up tomorrow morning. Finally, the Ray Ban frames. They'll be there tomorrow, but |
| 101 | 00:23:16 --> 00:23:30 | all the old glasses are there, so I just wanna pick them off, because my eyes are aging, and I'm doing this live. When I'm doing it, I'm trying to talk about |
| 102 | 00:23:30 --> 00:23:38 | it, but you're smart enough to know that if you're going to highlight it, highlight that entire range. I'm I don't draw this stuff on the chart when I'm |
| 103 | 00:23:38 --> 00:23:47 | actually trading myself. It's for me to teach it to you. But if it's below price, and you're going up to that old premium, right, you're going to use the |
| 104 | 00:23:47 --> 00:23:57 | lowest level of it anyway, and you want the lower half. So it really wasn't going to change anything, as it was described to yesterday. First presentation |
| 105 | 00:23:57 --> 00:24:09 | for everybody got watch that in here. Watch the wick, like to see it go up and just try to go into the lower half of that, but not get past the midpoint of |
| 106 | 00:24:09 --> 00:24:19 | that, and then dig into that first presented Fairbanks. And, all right, it's this level to that low. Let's see it. Just jump up there, keep that upper half |
| 107 | 00:24:19 --> 00:24:43 | that wick open, and then trade into that. That'd be a nice little study here. I struck have |
| 108 | 00:24:54 --> 00:25:06 | been taking my videos from this mentorship and. Not trying to run them without ads. As soon as you do that, I get notified from other people. Don't tell me |
| 109 | 00:25:06 --> 00:25:18 | they're there or the copyright thing in YouTube server automatically picks up on my video, so I end up taking your videos down. You don't get permission to do |
| 110 | 00:25:18 --> 00:25:26 | that from me, so just don't do it, please. It's easy for me. Just click a button and stop. Button. It's done. I'm not spending a lot of time doing takes more |
| 111 | 00:25:26 --> 00:25:28 | time for you to put them up. |
| 112 | 00:25:37 --> 00:25:53 | It's funny how these old levels keep providing support turning points gives you like a framework to to judge, okay, just about the low that wick. Okay, I'm just |
| 113 | 00:25:53 --> 00:26:02 | going to use this new day opening. God, love. That's kind of close to what would be the half that wick. So what I was saying was, I want to see if you can dig up |
| 114 | 00:26:02 --> 00:26:14 | into that, which essentially is already done here, to hit that, and then up to this point here, that would be the range at which I want to See. Is there any |
| 115 | 00:26:14 --> 00:26:16 | sensitivity to send price load I |
| 116 | 00:26:24 --> 00:26:40 | the initial run right off the open was just a straight shot higher hitting the layered I told you it'd be like a big black hole for price action. When, when |
| 117 | 00:26:40 --> 00:26:50 | these formed here on the 23rd of August. I mentioned that this, this is such a huge magnet on price, you'll see it used many times, and here it is again. It |
| 118 | 00:26:50 --> 00:26:53 | drew right up into it today, right off the opening. |
| 119 | 00:27:02 --> 00:27:08 | I my pool guys are here. The girls are barking on that's why you're here on them crazy barking down here. |
| 120 | 00:27:15 --> 00:27:22 | All right, so we dug a little bit deeper into that discount area the wick on this candlestick here. |
| 121 | 00:28:06 --> 00:28:18 | Okay, so that would negate anything dropping down into a 15 second chart that was on framing. If we were to start the sell off working that lower half there, |
| 122 | 00:28:18 --> 00:28:29 | then we can drop into a 15 second chart and use a fair value gap to drop into this first presented fair value gap that's looking into it. Still could do it, |
| 123 | 00:28:29 --> 00:28:31 | but I would have preferred it stayed in that lower half. I |
| 124 | 00:29:00 --> 00:29:15 | I remember we're really, really elevated from the opening range gap low, so where we settled yesterday afternoon. We're really, really expensive. So it's |
| 125 | 00:29:15 --> 00:29:28 | it's important not to get so excited about going to catch this run. I've hurt myself so many times in my earlier part of my career, just chasing and thinking, |
| 126 | 00:29:28 --> 00:29:36 | Okay, it's going to run. Sometimes it does. Sometimes it just takes off. And it's it, you don't get a chance to see much of a retracement or a drop, and it |
| 127 | 00:29:36 --> 00:29:45 | leaves the opening range gap open for the day. Never even trades back to it. But eventually, it eventually goes straight back to it, and it's more likely that |
| 128 | 00:29:45 --> 00:29:54 | that will have, you know, a better discount into the marketplace. And certainly before I would ever want to go along, and I would want it to do that, |
| 129 | 00:29:59 --> 00:30:01 | I. Put you on mute just for a second. |
| 130 | 00:30:22 --> 00:30:25 | You the tomake |
| 131 | 00:30:31 --> 00:30:32 | these dogs quiet. |
| 132 | 00:30:38 --> 00:30:46 | Lot so layered in here. And if we just drive through that aggressively, like if it's one or two candles, it gets through that, that's really likely that they're |
| 133 | 00:30:46 --> 00:30:55 | trying to get it up to here. And it'll be really interesting to see how much of a drop off it causes once it gets into that liquidity above there. Should it do |
| 134 | 00:30:55 --> 00:31:05 | it? I don't. I'm not saying that or making the hard sell that it's going to go there. But if it couldn't slice through all these new day, opening gaps in the |
| 135 | 00:31:05 --> 00:31:13 | new week, opening gap, and if it does it in stunning, easy fashion, that means they're just really going to drive it to here. And after having such a large |
| 136 | 00:31:13 --> 00:31:24 | gap, opening no retracement into the gap, just a strip, a steady run, getting up to this liquidity here, that'd be like puking it out and then send us down into |
| 137 | 00:31:24 --> 00:31:35 | here and then digging into the opening range gap. So this is far in advance, even with the natural, normal latency, should it trade up there, you have heard |
| 138 | 00:31:35 --> 00:31:45 | me say it before. You're getting it live and comparing with your live price action, and there's a little bit of a delay, but it's Okay. It's not going to be |
| 139 | 00:31:46 --> 00:31:47 | your earth chatter. I'm |
| 140 | 00:32:00 --> 00:32:23 | I see if we can pick up some accumulation here, around the new week, opening gap below, into that balance outside of efficiency. |
| 141 | 00:32:29 --> 00:32:46 | Isn't it crazy that one stock, one stock, just one and that's enough to make every other company bend the knee like every other stock has to suffer or find |
| 142 | 00:32:46 --> 00:33:02 | new love in it because of one stock. Nvidia. Come on now, you think it's not rigged, ridiculous. What's Proctor and Gamble and caterpillar? |
| 143 | 00:33:09 --> 00:33:20 | Have to do with Nvidia, nothing, but they'll all be moved around. You know, other stock out there, we moved around like a paper company. What's a paper |
| 144 | 00:33:20 --> 00:33:31 | company going to have to do with Nvidia? It's a chip company, right? So if that is the case, and Nvidia is going to have that much influence, it just makes it |
| 145 | 00:33:31 --> 00:33:41 | easy for them to manipulate everybody with just the sentiment around one issue. You see how everything has been changed to this that in the old days before |
| 146 | 00:33:41 --> 00:33:51 | electronic trading. It took real significant things for the market to maneuver and move around, and all the stock stocks would not move mark to market. It'd be |
| 147 | 00:33:51 --> 00:33:58 | a lag. It'd be like, well, now we're going to start to roll over and go and sympathy. Now, because of electronic trading, it's easy for them to manipulate |
| 148 | 00:33:58 --> 00:34:09 | and control everything and everyone, and, you know, inspire or disrupt market sentiment, and all you have to do is use one or two stocks to do it. But there's |
| 149 | 00:34:09 --> 00:34:29 | no, there's no, there's no market makers see that. They're bad words. So let's take a quick look at es in comparison s and t failure to make a higher high in |
| 150 | 00:34:29 --> 00:34:50 | ES, where we had that same comparable high at 936 to 949 936, I'm 949, higher high on NASDAQ, not seen in ES. So that is a indication. It doesn't mean there's |
| 151 | 00:34:50 --> 00:35:03 | a top it doesn't mean it's time to see it reverse. It just means that we're waning in the likelihood of. Continuation. If you then start seeing things |
| 152 | 00:35:03 --> 00:35:14 | technically break down, then you have the best of the best. So you're not just SMT is a smart money technique or Smart Money tool. I never really settled on |
| 153 | 00:35:14 --> 00:35:27 | what the T was going to stand for, so it's I always interchangeably use it as such. So same element here, see that wick. So half of that wick right there. I'm |
| 154 | 00:35:27 --> 00:35:33 | watching that right there. I |
| 155 | 00:35:40 --> 00:35:54 | uh, yesterday, I noticed that there was that package on the front by the door, and I said to my wife, I said, Did you order something? Got a package out there? |
| 156 | 00:35:55 --> 00:36:03 | She was no. I said, What is package out here? Because what did you order? I said, I didn't order anything. And she looked at me, like, really, because I |
| 157 | 00:36:03 --> 00:36:16 | used to wear a lot of stuff. And she walks out there, she grabs it, picks it up, and she goes, Oh, did you get me a Stanley Cup? I'm like, What did you get me a |
| 158 | 00:36:16 --> 00:36:25 | Stanley Cup? You got me a Stanley Cup? Smiling, like she got it. It's like, it's her birthday. This woman has like, 18 different whatever color stealing cups are |
| 159 | 00:36:25 --> 00:36:34 | out. She has it. And she has the little bling things that go on the the straw. She has, like these little boot things, they call it, and these bows like you |
| 160 | 00:36:34 --> 00:36:41 | thought she was dressing of porcelain dials, like a little girl. She got so many of these stupid things, and she says, I'm going to sell them people like them. |
| 161 | 00:36:42 --> 00:36:49 | What do you need the money for? And she ain't sold any of them. They're still sitting in there waiting to be used in in the order she ordered them. But when |
| 162 | 00:36:49 --> 00:36:58 | she opened that up, she saw it was a Yeti. She looked at me. He's like, I can't believe you didn't buy me another Stanley Cup. I can't believe you think you |
| 163 | 00:36:58 --> 00:37:01 | need another one. We think this is cologne |
| 164 | 00:37:07 --> 00:37:17 | only. I can be obsessive about cologne, but everything else is silly. You can't have more than one thing that's that's not natural, all right, so we did not get |
| 165 | 00:37:17 --> 00:37:25 | a run into the half of that wick and start the rollover, and it would have afforded us an opportunity to go into the 15 second chart and capture any order |
| 166 | 00:37:25 --> 00:37:37 | flow that would send us into first presented here. We got down here, so we're just sitting here and relaxing. We're not trying to predict anything. We're |
| 167 | 00:37:37 --> 00:37:48 | waiting for the market to actually indicate that it wants to move in a direction that's trustworthy. Here, it's too it's too expensive. Anytime it's like this, I |
| 168 | 00:37:48 --> 00:37:58 | will elect to look for shorts over chasing it going long because it's given every indication so far we're going to run it. So yeah, see how fast it is ran |
| 169 | 00:37:58 --> 00:38:03 | out of in there. Watch up here. |
| 170 | 00:38:16 --> 00:38:30 | Well, two candles. We went right through all those new week levels and New Day levels, one, two. So that opens the stage for a run up into here, because |
| 171 | 00:38:30 --> 00:38:39 | there's a lot of people up here to have their stops, not your friends on social media, but there's a lot of people with deeper pockets than you and I, and their |
| 172 | 00:38:39 --> 00:38:43 | positions are holding larger volume. |
| 173 | 00:38:52 --> 00:39:00 | As I was saying in these conditions, like I mentioned to I think it was two Tuesdays ago where it just starts to take off, running, if I'm not already |
| 174 | 00:39:00 --> 00:39:09 | positioned beforehand and holding on to something from pre session, I'll just sit on my hands and relax. I don't feel any kind of nervousness. I don't feel |
| 175 | 00:39:09 --> 00:39:22 | any kind of embarrassment. A necessity for me to have to prove something I'm teaching you, what I actually do is I demand price come to me, and it has to |
| 176 | 00:39:22 --> 00:39:31 | behave a certain way for me to engage it. And when you know what you're looking for, you don't get all caught up in fear of missing out. And that's that's how |
| 177 | 00:39:31 --> 00:39:40 | you conquer FOMO. It's just you have to know what you're doing and be be allowing the market, give it flexibility to do things without you. You give |
| 178 | 00:39:40 --> 00:39:49 | yourself permission not to trade every single fluctuation, and you also give the the market permission to go and be a child. Go, run and play. I don't have to |
| 179 | 00:39:49 --> 00:40:05 | hold your hand every minute. That's actually a good analogy. Just write that down. We have to use that again. Pretty. Future video. All right, let's see if |
| 180 | 00:40:05 --> 00:40:09 | we can spin our wheels here and run up in there and take that buy side out. |
| 181 | 00:40:14 --> 00:40:28 | I had a fellow say very politely, I have a lot of respect for you and what you do, but I don't understand the way you act. You don't say what's going to happen |
| 182 | 00:40:28 --> 00:40:39 | beforehand in the live streams, but then when it does certain things, you'll say, see what I thought, and I don't know what you're watching, but the things |
| 183 | 00:40:39 --> 00:40:51 | that we're looking for, the more pertinent things. I'm calling that stuff out. I'm also talking about what I don't want to see, what would be impediments to me |
| 184 | 00:40:51 --> 00:41:01 | actually engaging what I want to see, and what I'm not comfortable with at the time when it's presenting itself in the chart. And right on the heels of that |
| 185 | 00:41:01 --> 00:41:10 | comment, another person was like, can you just give me a short video of everything that you would say and do it in less than 30 minutes? How are you |
| 186 | 00:41:10 --> 00:41:19 | going to how you going to learn how to trade? I mean, if you're going to trade, if you're if you're going to trade, not just learn how to do something or watch |
| 187 | 00:41:19 --> 00:41:26 | something, because I'm convinced that these individuals just want to take the information and make courses with it, or write books on Amazon. They want the |
| 188 | 00:41:26 --> 00:41:35 | Cliff Notes. And I'm teaching my son Caleb, how to actually do it. So that means it's going to require proper understanding. So here's our return back into new |
| 189 | 00:41:35 --> 00:41:50 | week, opening gap high, and now in this candle the next I would really want to see some kind of indication it's going to drive towards that 694, level. If you |
| 190 | 00:41:50 --> 00:41:55 | can reach up there, I would expect a really nice opportunity to sell off. But |
| 191 | 00:42:00 --> 00:42:08 | if you're learning how to trade, you know, what is it you're thinking that's going to happen when you start trading, it's going to only work in 30 minute |
| 192 | 00:42:08 --> 00:42:19 | intervals, and that's it. I mean, you got to be able to look at the entirety of the day. I'm only with you for a portion of the day, not even the full day. So |
| 193 | 00:42:19 --> 00:42:27 | you have to understand what you're doing, what you're doing, what you're looking for, otherwise you're gambling, right, or you're not really looking at it with |
| 194 | 00:42:27 --> 00:42:37 | the full perspective, which is, you know, in my opinion, what I'm trying to share, more appropriate way of deciphering what price is going to do, and you |
| 195 | 00:42:37 --> 00:42:40 | have A full, comprehensive understanding. I |
| 196 | 00:43:06 --> 00:43:14 | Okay, should, if it's good, it should start finding traction here, and it'll run up there and bang that 694, I |
| 197 | 00:43:28 --> 00:43:31 | really, really expensive here today, right off the opening you. |
| 198 | 00:43:52 --> 00:44:05 | It never gets tiresome, seeing you know how the game of knocking the people out they have, like, the best positions that's been running, if they can go deep |
| 199 | 00:44:05 --> 00:44:18 | against them, like we're seeing here today, like that's It's always fascinating to me to see how, how far I'm willing to go, they'll go, to take that from them, |
| 200 | 00:44:18 --> 00:44:29 | and to read people say there's nobody out there trying to get your stops. They're not trying to get your stops. They're going where the obvious largest |
| 201 | 00:44:29 --> 00:44:38 | pool of liquidity is going to be, and it's going to be what people have deeper pockets in you and I right back down into newbie Goodman gap high I'm |
| 202 | 00:44:47 --> 00:44:54 | Would you feel safe with your stop at 19 694, even with that drop like that. Would you feel safe with that? |
| 203 | 00:44:59 --> 00:45:06 | Could you. Sleep at night. If that was the last thing you saw before you turn your charts off with your stop loss up there, would you have a good way to sleep |
| 204 | 00:45:06 --> 00:45:06 | with it? You |
| 205 | 00:46:00 --> 00:46:02 | lots of volatility here this morning. |
| 206 | 00:46:22 --> 00:46:49 | You I'm using just the laptop, but I am peeking at the 15 second chart on myself, and that's why I'm quiet. I'm looking at thinking, Okay, so where is it |
| 207 | 00:46:49 --> 00:46:57 | at? There's a small little inefficiency towards the new week opening got low so they could come back into a little bit more on |
| 208 | 00:47:14 --> 00:47:30 | a question I have, if it's going to come that far up right there, why would it leave a quadruple top at 694, when it knows there is a ton of orders resting |
| 209 | 00:47:30 --> 00:47:42 | about that they're only a day old. They would have been carried from higher prices prior to yesterday, trailed down. And if they weren't, they were trailed |
| 210 | 00:47:42 --> 00:48:00 | down after we saw the drop down yesterday, you know, overnight. So there's a huge pool of liquidity out there. New week, opening, gap low on 18th. Still |
| 211 | 00:48:00 --> 00:48:05 | nothing for me to do, completely complacent, not wanting to do nothing right here. |
| 212 | 00:48:13 --> 00:48:24 | How do you sit still and not worry about missing a move? Because I know I have lots of moves I can capture. I could disregard the entirety of the morning |
| 213 | 00:48:24 --> 00:48:32 | session and come back in the afternoon and do fine. At two o'clock to three o'clock, there's going to be a silver bullet. From three o'clock to four |
| 214 | 00:48:32 --> 00:48:42 | o'clock, there's going to be a silver bullet. There's four macros in the last hour I can participate in. So it's it's the comfort of knowing where the |
| 215 | 00:48:42 --> 00:48:50 | opportunities present themselves. But if something comes out the gate like this and just starts roaring, it's too rich, too expensive, for me to want to buy it. |
| 216 | 00:48:50 --> 00:49:04 | Even though, the last two days I've mentioned this area here is a really rich area of liquidity. It's not enough for me to buy it. I'm more comfortable with |
| 217 | 00:49:04 --> 00:49:15 | waiting to see. Should we get there? Do we break down? And it gives me something I can trade and go short with, and I'll be selling expensive things to market |
| 218 | 00:49:15 --> 00:49:25 | participants that want to chase and buy it, and it's usually when it breaks out up. Here. You Johnny Come Lately, he'll be Johnny on the spot trying to buy, you |
| 219 | 00:49:25 --> 00:49:33 | know, something that's probably going to have a deeper retracement in the morning session. I could be wrong. It could go up there and blast off and go |
| 220 | 00:49:33 --> 00:49:42 | another two, 300 handles. Okay, I'm just saying rule based ideas. I mean, you have to have procedure, process, and you have to be able to live with it. You |
| 221 | 00:49:42 --> 00:49:50 | can't just say, Well, I'm just going to make it up on the fly. There has to be rules that you follow for engagement, and if you don't have them in advance, not |
| 222 | 00:49:50 --> 00:49:57 | something that you feel impulsively saying, Well, I'm going to do this because I just think it's going to do this right now. What's the procedures that you've |
| 223 | 00:49:57 --> 00:50:10 | seen and studied by back to. Testing, and then forward testing, tape reading it, then demoing it for at least three to six months. That data, that's that's what |
| 224 | 00:50:10 --> 00:50:18 | you're going to lean on, not your natural impulses and tendencies to feel like, you know, I got a hunch it might do this. You don't want to trust your gut. |
| 225 | 00:50:18 --> 00:50:19 | Okay. I |
| 226 | 00:50:27 --> 00:50:43 | are very, very pleased that I'm at a stage in my career where I can look back and see where I would have made terrible, terrible impulsive decisions. So and |
| 227 | 00:50:43 --> 00:50:53 | now is, move slow when you're trying to make money, move fast when you're trying to protect it. And that was a lecture note that I got from listening to Larry |
| 228 | 00:50:53 --> 00:51:04 | Williams, and he mentioned that in two of his presentations, one, he was a keynote speaker for short term trading at a seminar. It was like a one, one |
| 229 | 00:51:04 --> 00:51:15 | event type thing, and he mentioned it there, which it really resonated with me. I was like, How do I apply that? Like, I have to know how to know when to sit |
| 230 | 00:51:15 --> 00:51:25 | still. When is it? When's it time for me to try to take the trade, and when is it not because saying the words and believing and agreeing with it is one thing, |
| 231 | 00:51:25 --> 00:51:33 | but having it so you can apply it is all together something different. And it took years for me to figure that that stuff out, and it's going to take you a |
| 232 | 00:51:33 --> 00:51:44 | long time too. It doesn't happen real fast no matter who tells you what, the the patience aspect and being able to filter ideas and trades not being caught up in |
| 233 | 00:51:44 --> 00:51:53 | the momentum of things, it's hard. It's very, very difficult, especially if you're actively looking to see what other people have done so far in the day, |
| 234 | 00:51:54 --> 00:52:05 | see the day, they may get very lucky and have captured something that's wonderful, but what's the steady diet up there? Trading? Is it that type of |
| 235 | 00:52:05 --> 00:52:14 | reckless gambling? Because I'm not impressed by that. You shouldn't aspire to have that for your trading, either. So now we're back down below that old, new |
| 236 | 00:52:14 --> 00:52:27 | week opening gap. Do we tag it? Sell off, attack the sell side below here and get into that first presented fair value gap. Then, does it one more time press |
| 237 | 00:52:27 --> 00:52:44 | up into that 694, buy side, or does it use the gap we're in here and just simply drive right back up and just do it, because it's iffy, because it's 5050, notice |
| 238 | 00:52:44 --> 00:52:56 | what I just did there. If I can frame it both directions, is a high probability, not by my definitions, and compare and contrast that with look at the setups I'm |
| 239 | 00:52:56 --> 00:53:06 | showing executions in there's only one way to paint them. It's obvious it's going where I'm trading them here, I can paint it on both sides, and it's not |
| 240 | 00:53:06 --> 00:53:12 | something that I would feel comfortable putting money behind. So if it's something I'm not willing to put money behind, there's no sense of worrying |
| 241 | 00:53:12 --> 00:53:23 | about outlining it. Use it. Please study it. Tape, read it. Watch it with no no weight on the outcome, because it wouldn't take anything from you, but it's just |
| 242 | 00:53:23 --> 00:53:26 | going to give you more insight and experience. I |
| 243 | 00:53:48 --> 00:53:55 | in my mind, this would be like the last ditch attempt if it was going to go up there, if I was if I was a bull, if I was a buyer, it would need to run from |
| 244 | 00:53:55 --> 00:54:06 | here and just be done with it, simply because we traded outside that new week, opening gap came back down into this inefficiency, which is part of a balanced |
| 245 | 00:54:06 --> 00:54:16 | price range, down up singular candles, handle it, and we're here now. So it would need to start climbing higher here, or it's giving up the ghost and going |
| 246 | 00:54:16 --> 00:54:30 | right back down into first presentation here. And because either side can happen, that's low probability for me, it should be low probability for you, and |
| 247 | 00:54:30 --> 00:54:32 | that's not a time for you to try to trade it. |
| 248 | 00:54:38 --> 00:54:47 | You don't want to F, A, F, O, as they say, is you'll, you'll probably get a result. You don't want some favorable. |
| 249 | 00:54:59 --> 00:55:45 | You. mute this again, just for a Moment. |
| 250 | 00:56:02 --> 00:57:22 | I'm you would need to find its legs here and run to that 694, or I would kill any interest. If I was a bite, if I was a bull, I'm not, but look how much time |
| 251 | 00:57:22 --> 00:57:30 | we spent just meandering around. Yeah, there's been small little fluctuations in price. I'm not going to deny that, and we can see it here, but is it something |
| 252 | 00:57:30 --> 00:57:31 | that you wanting to engage on? No, I |
| 253 | 00:58:36 --> 00:58:49 | if you look at the lows of all these candles, I like to look for areas where retail would see a diagonal support or resistance, and that looks like a prime |
| 254 | 00:58:49 --> 00:59:02 | candidate for their supposed diagonal support. So like a trend line, diagonal trend line, I don't use them, but I like To look for opportunities where I could |
| 255 | 00:59:02 --> 00:59:03 | fade them. I |
| 256 | 00:59:26 --> 00:59:43 | You find that lesson in the 2017 core content, the mentorship playlist for the YouTube channel. It has that trendline phantoms, no, it's like trend lines that |
| 257 | 00:59:43 --> 00:59:48 | are fake, and how to capitalize on them with the target how to used. |
| 258 | 00:59:54 --> 01:00:03 | They're best used when our tools are suggesting it's going to be an easy run, lower or higher. And then when you see lines that could have been drawn |
| 259 | 01:00:04 --> 01:00:12 | underneath lows that are perfect or real close to perfect, that's what retail is looking for. They want that kind of thing. They're not looking at inefficiencies |
| 260 | 01:00:12 --> 01:00:21 | or liquidity. They're looking for connected dots. And connect the dots is, is not what we do here. Banks and large institutions are not trading on Connect |
| 261 | 01:00:21 --> 01:00:31 | connected dots type theory. There goes the turn line Phantom. I just mentioned. It's view out the ghost. So now sell sides just in striking distance, and in the |
| 262 | 01:00:31 --> 01:00:33 | first presentation, hear about you got I |
| 263 | 01:00:40 --> 01:01:03 | so we were able to get down to the sell side here, minor sell side. |
| 264 | 01:01:15 --> 01:01:29 | It's an election year, and they are absolutely manipulating this market like crazy. I believe after November 6, we're going to see some wild price action. |
| 265 | 01:01:30 --> 01:01:44 | And since the the agenda will be behind the date, and you can read to the lines about what I mean by that, the market will be permitted to do things, because |
| 266 | 01:01:45 --> 01:02:00 | we'll be under a different way of living. This is called that for now. I always thought I'll stay on a Twitter space, dude. ICT put that in oil on baby. I |
| 267 | 01:02:03 --> 01:02:07 | Alright. So we're looking at a breaker in here. I'm watching how we behave. |
| 268 | 01:02:13 --> 01:02:14 | This candlestick right here. I'm |
| 269 | 01:02:29 --> 01:02:34 | that's the candlestick I'm looking at and where we're at in relationship to that I'm |
| 270 | 01:02:50 --> 01:03:05 | when it's like this, and you have so many confliction references, things that could be this. Could be that when it's like that, you have to just simply accept |
| 271 | 01:03:05 --> 01:03:14 | the fact that it's not time for you to trade. As simple as that, it's very simple, but it's very hard, especially if you're part of an online community, or |
| 272 | 01:03:14 --> 01:03:22 | if you like to force yourself onto social media. You feel compelled like you have to go out and prove that you saw something today, and you did something |
| 273 | 01:03:22 --> 01:03:30 | today, and you were right. And they're all part of the things we're talking about the other day that are their character flaws, their weaknesses, and you |
| 274 | 01:03:30 --> 01:03:40 | have to keep that stuff out of your trading, because if your results, through the lens of other people's perspective about you, is the goal, then making money |
| 275 | 01:03:40 --> 01:03:51 | ain't the goal. And if making money is not the goal, then your willingness to lose it on less favorable setups is is there, and that's a problem. That means |
| 276 | 01:03:51 --> 01:04:03 | you're willing to do stuff that wouldn't be deemed high probability. But after it works, you'll go online and champion it like you had some esoteric knowledge |
| 277 | 01:04:03 --> 01:04:14 | or some something superior, like the fellows that like to record and say, here's what I see. Said, we walk when he talks. Do it live. Do it live. And invite me. |
| 278 | 01:04:14 --> 01:04:28 | Don't, don't, don't mention me in your video. And that's the only thing you got going on? Do it live? I would have commented, but I don't want to bring too much |
| 279 | 01:04:28 --> 01:04:30 | attention to you, because you earned that yet. |
| 280 | 01:04:36 --> 01:04:52 | All right, so we've made things jagged on the upside after a premium opening, we've had 123, times lower. We're down here. We broke sell side, but it hasn't |
| 281 | 01:04:52 --> 01:05:00 | been convincing enough, and we haven't traded into this yet. So I want to see how we behave if we get into that, if it goes through, it to the down. Inside, |
| 282 | 01:05:01 --> 01:05:06 | see it be treated as an inversion, Fairbank gap and Go down to mid opening range gap you |
| 283 | 01:05:42 --> 01:05:55 | now Caleb would have already came to the conclusion that he can't take any trades today. It's already done too much. It changes to a improbable market |
| 284 | 01:05:55 --> 01:06:04 | condition for him. So he'd have to stay on the sidelines, turn his charts off, and he'd have to go back and look at what has happened after the fact later |
| 285 | 01:06:04 --> 01:06:14 | tonight. So he he's not permitted, based on what we've seen here, there's no setups he could have taken first presentation hasn't even been traded to So |
| 286 | 01:06:14 --> 01:06:27 | how's that losing money? It's not. How is it flawed logic. It's not it's a criteria that he's being trained to use, and if you so choose to do it as well. |
| 287 | 01:06:27 --> 01:06:41 | It prevents you from being impulsive or chasing price action. It gives you a frame of mind that tells you you cannot or you can trade if there are things |
| 288 | 01:06:41 --> 01:06:50 | that are going to be back and forth, 5050, as soon as you arrive at that conclusion, just turn your charts off. You will save yourself so much heartache, |
| 289 | 01:06:50 --> 01:07:03 | so much drawdown, so many blown accounts and or lost challenges or funded accounts. You will lose so much money trying to trade and spend it in |
| 290 | 01:07:03 --> 01:07:13 | commission, back and forth, trading in these opportunities, if you force yourself to do so. I know this because I've done it many, many times. I had to |
| 291 | 01:07:13 --> 01:07:22 | restart an account so many times as a 20 year old, I could not, couldn't, couldn't find myself out of the bad habit of just trying to impose my will on |
| 292 | 01:07:22 --> 01:07:33 | it. So you have to have procedures that tell you, yes, they the framework in the marketplace is conducive for very low resistance liquidity runs. We don't have |
| 293 | 01:07:33 --> 01:07:45 | that here today. We have a big, nice opening gap higher, wonderful. And then it starts right out the gate, straight up, okay with a failure to get to the |
| 294 | 01:07:45 --> 01:07:56 | liquidity that I was mentioning, and we didn't get there. So it could do it still, or it could leave it there. Which one are you going to go with? Whatever |
| 295 | 01:07:56 --> 01:08:07 | you say, and if it pans out, I'm telling you, with 32 years of experience. You just gambled. Now, one can say, Well, isn't that what trading is? Majority of |
| 296 | 01:08:07 --> 01:08:18 | everyone else out there, that's how they treat it, but they don't call it gambling. They may disagree with ICT, Poppy. ICT, that was some funny Instagram |
| 297 | 01:08:18 --> 01:08:28 | link. Some funny someone sent me a link so you got a fan look. I don't even know who that person is, but it was funny listening to him. You made $500,000 in last |
| 298 | 01:08:28 --> 01:08:42 | month. Well done. That was amazing. That's awesome. That is awesome. It's not even a quarterly payment in taxes, but it's still good. Nobody, nobody should be |
| 299 | 01:08:42 --> 01:08:56 | able to talk down against something like that. That's some that's some good that's some good chops. Copy ICT, I can't trade process. Some good stuff. |
| 300 | 01:09:02 --> 01:09:02 | Hmm? |
| 301 | 01:09:09 --> 01:09:18 | All right, so we got three more minutes. 1030 comes. I'm going to close it unless it gives me something really, really earth shattering. You. |
| 302 | 01:09:28 --> 01:09:40 | Bobby ICT, I'm gonna put that in the list of names. Now I have so many memes and how I love the old names. Oh, man, I |
| 303 | 01:09:51 --> 01:10:01 | Okay, let's look at this one. Let's play devil's advocate like that. Let's say that we did go down here and hit the stops. But to me, that's this little too |
| 304 | 01:10:01 --> 01:10:09 | anemic, and it starts to run here. What happens if that's a breakaway gap, and then you have this gap here, we can trade down to institutional order flow entry |
| 305 | 01:10:09 --> 01:10:12 | dual, and then they run it from there to take the buy side at 694, |
| 306 | 01:10:19 --> 01:10:30 | or because I just outlined that. They just run it right on up air and there's no entry. And guess what that means, sitting still was good. That's the right |
| 307 | 01:10:30 --> 01:10:44 | decision. That's not a regretful decision. It's not a but I could have made money chasing it. That's you making compensation for lack of patience and not |
| 308 | 01:10:44 --> 01:10:51 | having the visibility of seeing that these things will repeat. And you don't have to have your setup just right now because you're sitting in front of the |
| 309 | 01:10:52 --> 01:10:59 | charts. You have to be permissible. Yeah, I'm sorry. You have to allow the market to give you things that are permissible in delivery. So that means you |
| 310 | 01:10:59 --> 01:11:09 | allow it to do it and have no influence over you by pressing button. It's hard. I'm going to say it's easy. It's it wasn't for me. It was not easy for me |
| 311 | 01:11:09 --> 01:11:19 | because I'm a little bit more stubborn. It was a lot harder for me than probably will be for some of you. You might actually get through it a lot easier with |
| 312 | 01:11:19 --> 01:11:23 | structured guidance. So we're inside that Fairbank got there now, man, |
| 313 | 01:11:34 --> 01:11:48 | I don't know what's going on, but Deer Park used to actually taste pretty good, and this water is tasting like bath water, so I usually drink Evian Fiji and |
| 314 | 01:11:48 --> 01:12:01 | Deer Park is what I just grabbed to come up here, and it tastes gnarly. Doesn't taste good at all. Texting making me feel sick to my stomach. |
| 315 | 01:12:11 --> 01:12:18 | So what you would be looking at is how it managed to trade. If it can get above this high, you're looking at these relative equal highs. Does it go through it |
| 316 | 01:12:18 --> 01:12:27 | and accelerate? And does it accelerate into the high of this candle, because it's outside of the old, new week open and got high. So you're going to like |
| 317 | 01:12:27 --> 01:12:38 | measure the ability and strength and speed if it can trade to those two levels. Does it do it quickly and once it gets there? Does it maintain its bullish body |
| 318 | 01:12:38 --> 01:12:48 | and not create a wick and start to retrace back in that's not what you want to see. You want to see how it behaves above this high, if it can rally there, and |
| 319 | 01:12:48 --> 01:12:55 | then you want to see it accelerate and break through the new week, opening gap high and trade here, if you're long, if you're bullish, if you're looking for |
| 320 | 01:12:55 --> 01:13:13 | the go up to that 694, buy side that's up here, by the way. Again, you this week's lectures were all around contending with things that's going to be |
| 321 | 01:13:13 --> 01:13:21 | problematic for your trades, things that you're going to wrestle with. When should I move a stop? How should I move a stop? If I get stopped out, how do I |
| 322 | 01:13:21 --> 01:13:32 | go back in? Well, you got all that, and now, when you have a market that's opened up strong, ran out right from the opening higher, but it hasn't given you |
| 323 | 01:13:32 --> 01:13:42 | any meaningful retracements where you can frame the risk based on what has been taught to you thus far, and you have to give yourself permission to sit still |
| 324 | 01:13:43 --> 01:13:52 | and become be comfortable with that. Being still is a position that wins every single time. You never lose money. Sitting still, you never, ever, ever lose |
| 325 | 01:13:52 --> 01:14:04 | money. Sitting still and not entering a trade sidelines is a it's always winning. Okay, so we have the run above that high here and that high, so these |
| 326 | 01:14:04 --> 01:14:18 | two highs have been taken out. Do we have the ability to use continuation to drive above this high? If it can expand about that we have cleared again the new |
| 327 | 01:14:18 --> 01:14:30 | week, opening gap, the new day opening gap and New Day opening gap right here. That's usually it's only two ticks. One tick is still gap. |
| 328 | 01:14:38 --> 01:14:47 | If I were long from that fair value gap down here, as that one earlier than when we were playing devil's advocate, I would demand that it literally sends it |
| 329 | 01:14:47 --> 01:14:48 | right now you. |
| 330 | 01:15:00 --> 01:15:22 | Uh, using institutional order for entry drill for your entry. On that candle there you'd be in at 580 7.75. Or maybe 588 even so 588 even stop would would |
| 331 | 01:15:22 --> 01:15:33 | have to be 589 covered cost and commissions, so that way it comes back on you, you're stopped out and you didn't lose anything. You paid. You paid for your |
| 332 | 01:15:33 --> 01:15:45 | your your ride to see it okay. It wasn't a destination or a port of call. You sailed by that way. If you get stopped out, you had a chance to ride around, but |
| 333 | 01:15:45 --> 01:15:47 | didn't cost you anything. Get your money back. |
| 334 | 01:15:53 --> 01:16:04 | So see what it just did. There that candle here, and we went above that New Day opening gap, and then we went back down. So that's not what you want to see. You |
| 335 | 01:16:04 --> 01:16:13 | don't want to see things like that. It doesn't mean you're stopped out yet. It just means that you want to see momentum drive higher, and it's normal for |
| 336 | 01:16:13 --> 01:16:21 | having one candlestick retracing like that, but it means that quickly overcome it and break to a higher bullish candle. In other words, it's got to move |
| 337 | 01:16:22 --> 01:16:31 | outside this candlesticks range to the upside. It can't be spending time marking time inside that range or going lower. That's not good. |
| 338 | 01:16:37 --> 01:16:48 | And when I used to do the paid mentorships, which I'm never going to do a paid mentorship again. So for people that left a comment saying, You're a liar, you |
| 339 | 01:16:48 --> 01:16:56 | said you was never do a mentorship, and here you are. I never will do another paid mentorship. It's context. It's King Okay, guys, you take things out of |
| 340 | 01:16:57 --> 01:17:07 | context and twist my words. So yes, I'm I'm teaching my son, and he wanted to make it available to everybody. So here I am. But when I was doing that paid |
| 341 | 01:17:07 --> 01:17:17 | mentorship, I would do these live streams, and I would talk about the market live over to price charts, and I would outline them and say, Look, you know, |
| 342 | 01:17:17 --> 01:17:25 | this is what you're looking for. You're we're studying price in high resistance, liquidity run signatures, and low resistance liquidity run signatures. And when |
| 343 | 01:17:25 --> 01:17:32 | it's low resistance, that means it's going to be real easy. The market trades around nice. It's easy. It's one sided. You don't have conflicted analysis. It's |
| 344 | 01:17:32 --> 01:17:45 | just one way streets to go to inefficiency or liquidity, and the only way you can identify that is by watching price action in both conditions and me |
| 345 | 01:17:45 --> 01:17:52 | outlining what they are at the time, so that way you can see it. It's like, Oh, I understand what he means when it's high resistance. I understand what he means |
| 346 | 01:17:52 --> 01:18:02 | when it's low resistance. And having that framework given to you on a day by day basis, which is what mentorship was. It gives the students a baseline |
| 347 | 01:18:02 --> 01:18:12 | perspective on being able to gage if this is a climate for them to go in and even even expect to trade before that would be high probability. If you can |
| 348 | 01:18:12 --> 01:18:23 | develop the skill set to identify when the market's really prone to be adversarial on both sides for traders that go long and short. In other words, if |
| 349 | 01:18:23 --> 01:18:37 | it forces you to be absolutely 100% nimble and zero forgiveness for either side being wrong, that's high. That's That's a high probability that you're going to |
| 350 | 01:18:37 --> 01:18:49 | lose money that day. But because most individuals don't have that understanding, and that most traders that have a mentor, their mentors don't know how to do |
| 351 | 01:18:49 --> 01:18:59 | that, they don't have a frame of criteria that says this is high probability, or this is a climate that is not conducive for low resistance liquidity runs, where |
| 352 | 01:18:59 --> 01:19:09 | the market just trades real fast, real just easy stuff, real easy, quick, sudden, immediate feedback. That's positive. That's what I teach you. If you've |
| 353 | 01:19:09 --> 01:19:20 | been paying attention, I'm teaching you by identifying when it's ugly, when it's harder for you, when it's going to be 5050, trading, because I want you to feel |
| 354 | 01:19:20 --> 01:19:30 | what it's like to watch and see how hard it is for price to make its way through certain areas, and how it's very difficult for it to trade and gain ground or |
| 355 | 01:19:30 --> 01:19:38 | lose ground, if you're bearish and just stays in these ranges like this, not that you can't. Obviously you can trade it. I mean, right now, if you close the |
| 356 | 01:19:38 --> 01:19:49 | position when I was saying, let's play devil's advocate, and we use this fair Vega, oh, you'd be long if you closed it right now, what you what? What shape |
| 357 | 01:19:49 --> 01:20:05 | would you be in? About 50 candles or so. What's wrong with that? Nothing. I. The problem is you're listening to me talk about clearing this high and getting up |
| 358 | 01:20:05 --> 01:20:14 | to here, and some of you will say it either goes there or I won't get out at all, and it's going to have to stop me out. So it's a stop out, or my target. |
| 359 | 01:20:14 --> 01:20:23 | And people that say that are stupid, they're stupid because what you're saying to the audience members that are listening to you, wasting their time listening |
| 360 | 01:20:23 --> 01:20:33 | to you, listening to that logic is you. The argument usually made is, well, if you open the trade up with XYZ measure or percentage of risk, why would I want |
| 361 | 01:20:33 --> 01:20:44 | to get out with less than what I opened it up with, for my target, here's here's a novelty for you, making money because partials are 100% profitable all the |
| 362 | 01:20:44 --> 01:20:57 | time. There's never been a partial profit that's ever lost money, ever it's never happened. It's in its name, profit, okay? So when you close it, you have |
| 363 | 01:20:57 --> 01:21:09 | gained more equity. It may not be the highest degree of profit that you had hoped for and aspired at the time when you first got the trade on, but you have |
| 364 | 01:21:09 --> 01:21:16 | to understand as a trader, yeah, you have to be dynamic and evolving continuously while price is moving and gyrating around. Because what might be |
| 365 | 01:21:16 --> 01:21:23 | visible in the charts when you first sit down to enter the trade, and it might make sense to put the trade on. It might have everything going for it |
| 366 | 01:21:23 --> 01:21:34 | technically, and then it fizzles out. It just falls apart. All the technicals just fade away. And you start realizing that maybe I'm not in a trade that is |
| 367 | 01:21:34 --> 01:21:43 | going to pan out for me. Well, as soon as you feel that as a developing trader, the first thing you want to do cut the trade in half. If you have a profit, take |
| 368 | 01:21:43 --> 01:21:51 | it off half of it, whatever it is. Well, it's only going to be 100 bucks in my in my commission, Yep, sure is. But you know it's going to do. It's going to |
| 369 | 01:21:51 --> 01:21:59 | reduce the anxiety about you feeling what you are observing, but you're arguing about it. It doesn't look like it's going to move man. Should I get out? Should |
| 370 | 01:21:59 --> 01:22:08 | I not? Should I close it? What I do? What do I do? As soon as you feel that when you're learning and you're developing, whatever the trade size is, cut it in |
| 371 | 01:22:08 --> 01:22:19 | half. If it's only one contract that you can't trade with more, just close the trade and then tape read the rest of it, because you have to be able to remind |
| 372 | 01:22:19 --> 01:22:32 | yourself continuously that you're in control of your own actions. The broker ICT, somebody on the internet, the market, didn't suck you in without your |
| 373 | 01:22:32 --> 01:22:41 | permission. You you push the button, you entered those orders in, you put yourself in the marketplace, and you have to find your way out of it, whether |
| 374 | 01:22:42 --> 01:22:52 | through blown account, through drawdown or profitable trading, and the goal is profitable trading. And since the it's understood that nobody walks out here on |
| 375 | 01:22:52 --> 01:23:04 | their first day knowing exactly what to do without meaning, without making any mistakes, it's it's reasonable for you to say, I'm uncomfortable. And why put |
| 376 | 01:23:04 --> 01:23:16 | yourself through unnecessary hardship? You're going to feel the same angst about the trade not working for you. If you close it, take half off or close the |
| 377 | 01:23:16 --> 01:23:29 | entire position, if you have just one contract, and then you have the protection of not losing money, not having realized drawdown in your paper trading account, |
| 378 | 01:23:29 --> 01:23:40 | your funded account challenge or your funded paper trading account, because that's what they are. It's better for you to manage your emotions and the |
| 379 | 01:23:40 --> 01:23:53 | psychology around your actions or the decisions you're making when you feel that pressure inside, trading through that full bore, and just saying, I'm going to |
| 380 | 01:23:53 --> 01:24:02 | hold on to it. That has to be graduated, too. And the way you get to that point is, in the beginning you'll be anxious, okay? And then you'll close the |
| 381 | 01:24:02 --> 01:24:11 | position, and you're going to realize, for folks that are highly critical of themselves when you're tape reading, that means you're not even demoing. When |
| 382 | 01:24:11 --> 01:24:18 | you're not even a demo trade, not even a paper trades on. But you have convictions about why you think the market's going to go up or down from |
| 383 | 01:24:18 --> 01:24:27 | wherever you're watching it, and you'll feel anxious and you're not even in a trade, and that is the surest indication that you're hyper critical of yourself. |
| 384 | 01:24:28 --> 01:24:35 | And chances are, you probably beat yourself up. You probably have beat yourself up in your journal. If you even journal, there's a lot of Jokers out there that |
| 385 | 01:24:35 --> 01:24:50 | say, you know, I got time to journal. I'm a man every significant, wildly profitable CEO or owner of a business. You know what they do? They keep records |
| 386 | 01:24:50 --> 01:25:05 | in a journal. Yeah, that's what the rich people do. Bart Simpson doesn't keep a journal. I. We're not trying to be a Simpson, okay, we're trying to be a Samson, |
| 387 | 01:25:06 --> 01:25:07 | a Concord. It |
| 388 | 01:25:16 --> 01:25:22 | would need to find legs here and reach up in that 694, if it was going to go |
| 389 | 01:25:30 --> 01:25:45 | at all, I got 90 seconds. I told you about 1045 not earlier in the recording. I said yesterday, I said about 1045 i right. So now what you're watching is how it |
| 390 | 01:25:45 --> 01:25:55 | behaves inside of this inefficiency. You do want to see if it can get above this city. You want to see you get above the the high of that, which is that level |
| 391 | 01:25:55 --> 01:26:06 | there, and expand with momentum and strength to drive into that high here and then attack that 694, buy side. That's a right now, it's a quadruple high, this |
| 392 | 01:26:06 --> 01:26:15 | high, and then I'm not going to scroll away in case it runs up, because I want it to be on this on the live stream to do so. But you want to screenshot this |
| 393 | 01:26:15 --> 01:26:21 | right here, because this is a really good opportunity for you to see if you would have used the fair value gap we gave as a devil's advocate exercise. We're |
| 394 | 01:26:21 --> 01:26:34 | saying, let's say you wanted to be a buyer using this fair Vegas, should it trade down into that which it did and then rallied up. Here is the the first |
| 395 | 01:26:34 --> 01:26:43 | target for partials from me. That would be my first partial, because it's too close to everything else down here to warrant taking a partial off here. It's |
| 396 | 01:26:43 --> 01:26:51 | really close to that high, and it could fail. It doesn't doesn't mean it's going to go up here. It could stop right where it's at and go lower. But the way you |
| 397 | 01:26:51 --> 01:27:00 | have to learn how to trade it and engage it is we're in a real rich premium at the high end of that city. This fair value gap with a down close sippies are |
| 398 | 01:27:00 --> 01:27:10 | always down close Fairbank apps. So hitting that, and taking a screenshot of that, and then annotating how much time it took to get to that candle, touching |
| 399 | 01:27:10 --> 01:27:21 | this candles. This candle is low from the low of this candle, which is institutional order financial drill. So when you screenshot that kind of stuff |
| 400 | 01:27:22 --> 01:27:30 | when you're watching price action, or when you're watching you call it like, like I'm doing here. Compare what I just outlined here using this fair value gap |
| 401 | 01:27:30 --> 01:27:38 | and then saying that would be my first partial. Then look at the trades that I take and how I execute. I'm getting on, getting in, on down, closed candles, |
| 402 | 01:27:38 --> 01:27:48 | right at the lowest candle, and then it rallies up. And I'm getting out at short term highs. Look what it's doing here. Look at the behavior there. Even if it |
| 403 | 01:27:48 --> 01:27:59 | turns around and rips, goes up here, that right there is enough to warrant the logic I'm sharing. It's giving you bookends, okay, a beginning and an end, where |
| 404 | 01:27:59 --> 01:28:11 | something should start and where first partial is. Now, if you wrote your stop to say you gave yourself a pizza dinner and commissions cost covered. What is |
| 405 | 01:28:11 --> 01:28:23 | that for you? I don't know. Say 100 bucks, 200 bucks, and just let the trade go. You've paid yourself. You've executed rather handsomely with very, very good |
| 406 | 01:28:23 --> 01:28:31 | precision, getting out of the short term hide it formed at a logical level where there's a premium level. Do you need me to push a button because I outlined it |
| 407 | 01:28:31 --> 01:28:40 | for you right here, but some of you want it because you want to copy me, and I'm trying to keep you from needing that right now, because I will be pushing out in |
| 408 | 01:28:40 --> 01:28:51 | front of you, but I want you to understand that it's going to take a great deal of control for you to not want to push the button. When I do, I'm going to put |
| 409 | 01:28:51 --> 01:28:57 | limit orders in the marketplace so you'll see those orders resting there, and price will come to the limit order, and it'll fill me, and whatever happens |
| 410 | 01:28:57 --> 01:29:08 | after that is what we'll watch. But I want you to have the maturity to say, You know what? I'm going to just simply study this, and I'm going to exercise |
| 411 | 01:29:08 --> 01:29:17 | discipline over myself. I'm not going to be impulsive, I'm not going to be greedy, I'm not going to fear missing something, because what I'm learning, I'm |
| 412 | 01:29:17 --> 01:29:28 | learning how to do this on my own. I don't need to copycat Michael, that's how you graduate this mentorship. Okay, the last two weeks that we spend, I'm |
| 413 | 01:29:28 --> 01:29:38 | literally going to just be doing entries in management. That's what I'm going to be doing. And once I'm done with them, I don't want to see you. Tell me Thank |
| 414 | 01:29:38 --> 01:29:46 | you. I made this much money or I pass, because that's literally the surest way that I'm going to block you from ever being able to send me a comment, and you |
| 415 | 01:29:46 --> 01:29:56 | might not care about it, okay, but I don't want you doing anything to copy me, because I know if I'm doing it here live, you're going to be trying to do it |
| 416 | 01:29:56 --> 01:30:04 | with real money, or the chance of you losing something you paid for, like three. Or a funded account company, Challenger, or whatever, and I don't, I don't want |
| 417 | 01:30:04 --> 01:30:16 | you in my trade, because then it's not my trade. It's me managing the outcome for you. And I don't want that. I'm not trading other people's money. OPM is not |
| 418 | 01:30:16 --> 01:30:30 | me. It's not me, baby. My name is ICT, not OPM, other people. People's money, okay, she didn't pick up on that. You down with Opp, yeah? You know me, yeah. |
| 419 | 01:30:30 --> 01:30:42 | You remember that? Still no cuss words. How about that? Told you, folks, it's just the character, just the character, it gets people talking about me, and it |
| 420 | 01:30:42 --> 01:30:53 | brings them to the channel. That's what a Master of Marketing does. No advertising card. Just manipulate the audience, get them talking. All right. So |
| 421 | 01:30:53 --> 01:31:10 | now we're at the consequent question of that premium wick, see it every single time jumped. So we are just hitting it right there. What's the price? Constant? |
| 422 | 01:31:10 --> 01:31:21 | Crochet in 694 and a half the high? Oh, one tick above it. So there you go. Now, now we're definitely above it. So we would demand that it really accelerates and |
| 423 | 01:31:21 --> 01:31:32 | just does it in short fashion, because they don't want them to take those orders out of the marketplace. So the framework looks like this. |
| 424 | 01:31:39 --> 01:31:53 | Told you these these lectures this week are going to be the dry ones, the boring ones, but I promise you, after doing this for 32 years, I literally would have |
| 425 | 01:31:53 --> 01:32:03 | paid everything that I was be willing to put into a trading account. Back in the 90s, when I was learning how to do all this stuff, I would have, I would have |
| 426 | 01:32:03 --> 01:32:13 | paid gladly for this information with someone sitting out here explaining the logic proven to you, where it's going to go and how to be a master of yourself. |
| 427 | 01:32:14 --> 01:32:24 | And don't, don't try to demand that you know what you have to do right now all the time. And I'm I'm teaching because I'm my audience member is my son, and he |
| 428 | 01:32:24 --> 01:32:31 | doesn't have the ability yet, but he's going to have the natural tendencies that want to impress dad. He's going to have the natural tendencies to look at the |
| 429 | 01:32:31 --> 01:32:40 | last time he got it right and think, I want to do it with real money sooner than I should, or I want to trade more contracts than dad told me to do, or I want to |
| 430 | 01:32:40 --> 01:32:47 | get in earlier, because I don't have the patience to sit there and wait for the setup. All those things that you've been wrestling with, and I wrestled with |
| 431 | 01:32:47 --> 01:32:56 | too, and every other trader does too. I'm trying to spare him that. So that's why I'm teaching this way, because I want him to be bored with the the delivery |
| 432 | 01:32:56 --> 01:33:11 | of price, what we're looking for, how it should behave, all those things should be building blocks for for you Caleb, to to wrestle your impulse of nature, to |
| 433 | 01:33:11 --> 01:33:25 | wrestle fear and greed, not fall victim to fear of missing out and feel uncomfortable just letting price move and finding your model and also being |
| 434 | 01:33:25 --> 01:33:35 | comfortable, being comfortable with what you're expecting to see in price action, and if it's not being delivered to you, sit still. I mean, let's say you |
| 435 | 01:33:35 --> 01:33:42 | went to a five star restaurant. Okay, you couldn't wait to get there. You've been waiting all week. You worked all week. You put some money aside. You and |
| 436 | 01:33:42 --> 01:33:50 | your significant other, you're going to this five star restaurant. And you get there because you want to have lobster, you want to have a stuffed lobster tail |
| 437 | 01:33:51 --> 01:34:01 | and all the fixings on the side that you usually eat with it. And you get there and that waiter says, unfortunately, tonight, you're going to have to do |
| 438 | 01:34:01 --> 01:34:15 | something different. We're out of lobster. Well, all right, man, give me the BLT. That's what people do when they're watching the marketplace. They can have |
| 439 | 01:34:15 --> 01:34:24 | a model. They know what they're looking for. The menu that they want to eat off of is filet mignon and lobster. But when he sit down in front of the charts and |
| 440 | 01:34:24 --> 01:34:32 | they start watching these things dance around on the screen. Oh, you know what? Grilled Cheese. Ain't that bad? Peabody jelly, yeah, fold me over one piece of |
| 441 | 01:34:32 --> 01:34:39 | bread. Man, I got the heel. I got the last piece of bread. You know? I gotta eat. I gotta eat. Man, I gotta eat. I gotta do something. I've been sitting here |
| 442 | 01:34:39 --> 01:34:50 | for two hours, I gotta do something instead of demanding the way to find some lobster or we're going to go somewhere else and somebody that has money don't, |
| 443 | 01:34:51 --> 01:34:58 | we don't look at it as I'm wasting gas, because I'm gonna have to find somewhere else to go. I'm gonna leave if I went to that restaurant expecting what I'm |
| 444 | 01:34:58 --> 01:35:07 | wanting to eat. Like, for instance. Like, I like Ruth Chris. I like the one on Water Street down in the harbor, and their crab cake is phenomenal. And if |
| 445 | 01:35:07 --> 01:35:20 | you've never had a crab cake done Ruth Chris style, we it's the Chesapeake Bay edition of It's the only one of all the Ruth Chris locations that has been given |
| 446 | 01:35:20 --> 01:35:31 | permission by Ruth to to do that blend. To get that crab cake, you gotta come here to Baltimore, and I promise you, if you get it, it will dance on your taste |
| 447 | 01:35:31 --> 01:35:42 | buds. It is absolutely amazing. It's so good I can't eat a crab cake unless it comes from with Chris and I'm a Maryland boy. I like crabs to an extent, and |
| 448 | 01:35:42 --> 01:35:55 | it's got to be in a in a setting. Usually, when my daughter visits us like she, she just went home, we took her out to get crabs, and we had crabs twice while |
| 449 | 01:35:55 --> 01:36:07 | she was here. And if I don't eat a crab the rest of this year, I'm okay, but if my wife says I'm going to move for a nice steak, well, she eats the filet |
| 450 | 01:36:07 --> 01:36:16 | mignon. Ruth makes an amazing steak. It comes out 500 degrees, sizzling on a plate. You hear your steak coming. It's sizzling as it's coming to your table, |
| 451 | 01:36:19 --> 01:36:32 | but their crab cakes better. That crab cake is such an amazing Oh, it's so good. It's perfectly seasoned. It's so good. So Ruth, Chris, send the check in the |
| 452 | 01:36:32 --> 01:36:41 | mail please. This. This video does not have paid sponsors. It's just me saying who I like and what I like. You never gonna see no affiliate with me. Okay, I |
| 453 | 01:36:41 --> 01:36:51 | don't get paid advertisers in there. I get them all the time offering me stuff, but it's never been something I'm gonna reach for, despite how rich them some of |
| 454 | 01:36:51 --> 01:37:05 | those offers have been. All right, come on, get up there and be done with it. I'm over my scheduled a lot of time here. ICT over time. |
| 455 | 01:37:11 --> 01:37:25 | So I was watching this breaker here, and all of my PD arrays all have inversion aspects to it. As a reminder for the folks that are running around saying, yeah, |
| 456 | 01:37:25 --> 01:37:36 | it's 81 PDA raise, but half of them are just going bullish or going bearish off of them. No, there's individual PD arrays, and they themselves have inversion |
| 457 | 01:37:36 --> 01:37:51 | aspects to them. So it's double the 81 but this breaker. We went above it, and then what were we doing at the top of it, accumulating fair back. Sorry, fair |
| 458 | 01:37:51 --> 01:37:58 | value got created. I mentioned down here, I said you would treat this if you were bullish, go back and listen to your stream if you were bullish, this could |
| 459 | 01:37:58 --> 01:38:09 | be viewed as a breakaway gap, and then this could be a institutional order for entry drill, meaning, what, no full closure of the gap? Well, let's test that |
| 460 | 01:38:09 --> 01:38:24 | dairy ICT. There's the high, there's a candle high, and that candles low, trades into it, but leaves it open. There you go. Institutional branch entry drill |
| 461 | 01:38:39 --> 01:38:49 | for the folks are screaming at the computer screen. Dude, where would a stop be at on this well, what have I taught you so far? If this is your first time |
| 462 | 01:38:49 --> 01:38:57 | watching then, then you're allowed to not know that. But if you've been with me and not talk to everybody else in other lectures before, and you also watch me |
| 463 | 01:38:57 --> 01:39:13 | execute too, this candlestick is your imbalance. That right there is where your stop loss is, minus one tick. If you want to be conservative, you use the first |
| 464 | 01:39:13 --> 01:39:23 | candles low, minus one tick. But I like to keep risk manageable. So the imbalance candle, if it's about sound down cell sign efficiency or an up close |
| 465 | 01:39:24 --> 01:39:37 | fear Vega gap, like we have here. My stop would be right below there. So by contrast, you would see a fill at 87 or we'll just use 88 okay, we'll fluff it |
| 466 | 01:39:37 --> 01:39:54 | up and use two tips above the low that candle, so you have 88 and below that candle, 70.5 so you have 1818, handles. I. |
| 467 | 01:40:00 --> 01:40:07 | It so you're you're already doing the math on that thinking. Wait a minute, now I can't do 15 contracts with my top step account. Well, that's a good thing. |
| 468 | 01:40:10 --> 01:40:18 | That's a good thing. You need somebody to remind you stop over leveraging. Stop making these people money. You're supposed to be making the money. And the way |
| 469 | 01:40:18 --> 01:40:31 | you make money is you, you control risk. But what happens if you were trading five micro lots, there five micro lots, and you get 100 handle run, we'll just |
| 470 | 01:40:31 --> 01:40:38 | call it, filled with slippage and costs with commission. Say you got a 90. That's your average price with commission costs, and you trade all the way up |
| 471 | 01:40:38 --> 01:40:56 | here, and you're getting right here, or your first partial here. So you got anywhere between 60 to 100 handles, risking 18. So the best case scenario there |
| 472 | 01:40:56 --> 01:41:10 | is you have a five to one gearing. That means you're risking $1 to make five that's that's your that's your math on that. That's good if you trade like that, |
| 473 | 01:41:10 --> 01:41:22 | and that's what you're setting yourself up for. Those framework type trades, you can take losing trades and not be perfect, and you could lose half the time and |
| 474 | 01:41:22 --> 01:41:39 | still be profitable. You can lose 30 if I'm not mistaken, I think it's 38% of the time only being correct. So being incorrect more than 70% of the time, |
| 475 | 01:41:39 --> 01:41:51 | losing more than 7% of the time with this kind of gearing, you can still make money. How's that possible? Because every time you win, you're getting five |
| 476 | 01:41:51 --> 01:42:05 | times what you risk. But as you're trading, as the trade starts to move in your favor, you want to reduce that risk, or whatever, that $1 risk to make one $5 |
| 477 | 01:42:05 --> 01:42:17 | win. So your gearing, or risk to reward is one to five, or set it this way, reward to risk is five to one, or risk to reward one to five, you're trying to |
| 478 | 01:42:17 --> 01:42:31 | make $5 and only risk one. So that's your gearing. You you can afford to be wrong a lot, and if you move your stop loss as the position moves in your favor, |
| 479 | 01:42:32 --> 01:42:44 | and you're trying to get to first partial, whatever your first partial is, whatever you arrived at in your trade before you even put a trade on, you should |
| 480 | 01:42:44 --> 01:42:55 | know where your first partial is and when the trade moves halfway to that first partial. If you move your stop to cover costs, that means your commission costs |
| 481 | 01:42:55 --> 01:43:02 | are covered. You're obviously your break even, but when people put their stop to break even, they're not break even you're paying commission. So you have to |
| 482 | 01:43:02 --> 01:43:13 | figure out what your commission costs are on that trade and then move it to that and cover it. And if it allows you go half a handle, it's it's 10 bucks. It pays |
| 483 | 01:43:13 --> 01:43:25 | for a pizza from carry out, go to Papa John. You get yourself a one Topping Pizza Tom ICT sent you, but you've completely removed any chance of it, unless |
| 484 | 01:43:25 --> 01:43:32 | it's a big, crazy geopolitical event. You can see coming, nobody can see coming. It gaps away from you and runs over top you. Then that stop losses and then, |
| 485 | 01:43:33 --> 01:43:44 | instance, doesn't work. You're going to get slipped and slipped bad. But you can be wrong a lot. If you have five to one gearing in your trades, and you manage |
| 486 | 01:43:44 --> 01:43:52 | your stop loss like that, whatever your first partial is, when it trades in your favor, profiting without taking any partial. Yet, soon as it goes to 50% of |
| 487 | 01:43:52 --> 01:44:02 | that, that run or whatever, say it's 40 handles, that's your first partial. Once you get 20 handles in profit, cover your costs with your stop loss, and just sit |
| 488 | 01:44:02 --> 01:44:09 | still now you're thinking, I don't want to do that, because with it comes back and stops me out. It's going to show you that you don't know how to put a stop |
| 489 | 01:44:09 --> 01:44:22 | loss on, or you entered at the wrong location. And that's an opportunity for you to improve on. How's that for a novelty idea? How's that for logic? How about |
| 490 | 01:44:22 --> 01:44:29 | highlighting what you need work on so you can polish yourself and refine yourself instead of pretending you're going to walk through this without having |
| 491 | 01:44:29 --> 01:44:40 | any adversities or never doing it wrong. This week, I have been focusing on things that are going to be paramount to you encountering with the right |
| 492 | 01:44:40 --> 01:44:52 | mindset, or not falling victim to this stuff, because you're changing the way you think, and that's the better way of doing it. I'm hoping that you're |
| 493 | 01:44:52 --> 01:45:00 | listening Caleb for that reason, because learning from it, like I had to learn from it, you don't want those lessons because it brings scar tissue. You don't |
| 494 | 01:45:00 --> 01:45:12 | need to go through that stuff, you'll be better than I am, because you don't get that pain, that regret, and it was harder than it needed to be because I didn't |
| 495 | 01:45:12 --> 01:45:24 | want to listen, I didn't want to be patient, and a lot of you watching, like, like, today's session, it was probably very painful for some of you, and you're |
| 496 | 01:45:24 --> 01:45:34 | coming back now just to listen to the last part on twice the speed, just to get through it, gagging at the dryness of it all. But what do you think trading is |
| 497 | 01:45:34 --> 01:45:40 | going to be like when you get into a day where it just isn't moving like you want to? You're going to be thinking about all these things I've talked about |
| 498 | 01:45:40 --> 01:45:49 | this week, and what logic do you have to lean on? None. You won't have any logic going on if you haven't listened and taken notes. You're going to listen to your |
| 499 | 01:45:49 --> 01:45:57 | impulse of nature. You're going to listen to your emotions that you're always going to lie to you. You're going to be scared when you shouldn't be, and you're |
| 500 | 01:45:57 --> 01:46:08 | going to be overconfident when you should be fearful. It's like a paradox. You feel like you want to chase price and you have no fear. Think about it. Every |
| 501 | 01:46:08 --> 01:46:19 | single time you've traded, you have chased when price has been going up. I'm going to buy it now. It's been going up. I've got confirmation. Fearless, no |
| 502 | 01:46:19 --> 01:46:31 | concern for how much it could very easily retrace against you. When you're not using a stop loss, you're brave in your ignorance of not using a stop Wow. Look |
| 503 | 01:46:31 --> 01:46:41 | at him. He went out there and bought that thing after it's rallied 87 handles, only two down closed candles in the last series of up close candles. Now he's |
| 504 | 01:46:41 --> 01:46:59 | buying it top tick Tommy, no stop, full margin. All In contrast that mindset with waiting until your setup is in a discount when you want to buy wait for a |
| 505 | 01:46:59 --> 01:47:07 | shift in market structure. Wait for that first bear you got fair you got fair value, got the form, and have your limit order sitting in that fair Vega and |
| 506 | 01:47:07 --> 01:47:14 | wait for price to drop down into it you're buying when price is moving away. That's courage. Most people don't want to do that. How do you know? ICT, what's |
| 507 | 01:47:14 --> 01:47:27 | going to go into that fair value gap and not go below it? Because I've watched 1000s and 1000s and 1000s and 1000s of hours of tape, reading, paper, trading |
| 508 | 01:47:27 --> 01:47:37 | it, demo trading it, making real money with it, making your annual salary with it. And over time, it does what. It gives you confidence that what you're doing |
| 509 | 01:47:38 --> 01:47:50 | tends to repeat. And because you've been doing that and you're also working in market structures, it's a little bit more challenging somehow, you know, the |
| 510 | 01:47:50 --> 01:48:03 | idea of being a mentor, these guys that are pretending to be mentors, they'll say things that never indicate that they have a period of when it's not easy for |
| 511 | 01:48:03 --> 01:48:13 | them. This is all my stuff, and sometimes it's going to be a hard read, or it's not a market condition that I want to operate and engage in. That's not |
| 512 | 01:48:13 --> 01:48:29 | insecurity. That's not, it's not that is not insecurity. That's me knowing exactly what I'm looking for. I I outlined this one for you. That's your silver |
| 513 | 01:48:29 --> 01:48:41 | bullet. Some of you completely forgot about it because we're learning new stuff. Isn't that the silver bullet? It's inside the 10 o'clock hour, reaching for what |
| 514 | 01:48:43 --> 01:48:55 | old high every premium array going up. We got to cut through all this stuff here, all these layered new debt, New Day opening gap and new week opening gap. |
| 515 | 01:48:55 --> 01:49:05 | That's what's causing, listen, folks, this is the last note for today, when you're trading with high resistance liquidity runs, you're going to have this |
| 516 | 01:49:05 --> 01:49:15 | effect in price action, but you're not seeing it. That's why it's that's why it's holding price back. Instead of having just a real quick one run through it, |
| 517 | 01:49:15 --> 01:49:22 | it's no problem. That's why I was telling you earlier. If it runs through it with one or two candles that we did here. It should have no problem reaching up |
| 518 | 01:49:22 --> 01:49:32 | there, and it got real close to it, didn't it, and then Peter down. And then we got real, real close to here, and then Peter down. But you don't need, I didn't |
| 519 | 01:49:32 --> 01:49:37 | need to be right about that, because I gave you watch out before perform performs above this candle here. |
| 520 | 01:49:39 --> 01:49:47 | Watch how it performs above here. When it did this, we want to see it get above there. It does. We want to see it press through it. Why? Because we don't want |
| 521 | 01:49:47 --> 01:49:54 | to see it being held up like a cobweb tangled up around its legs and can't run because of all the new weak opening gap and New Day opening gap levels in here. |
| 522 | 01:49:54 --> 01:50:03 | That's what causes the high resistance liquidity run market conditions when you. See these things layered up around each other, but you're not plotting them on |
| 523 | 01:50:03 --> 01:50:12 | your chart. That's why you've never noticed them. It's not a absence of buying and selling pressure. It's the fact that the algorithm has all of these levels |
| 524 | 01:50:13 --> 01:50:27 | it's paying off of it's constantly offering this back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. Then it moves out of it gravitates to the high of this |
| 525 | 01:50:27 --> 01:50:38 | inefficient I told you that would be first partial, told you screenshot that. Then I told you, consequent crochet into that wick. That's a screenshot. And if |
| 526 | 01:50:38 --> 01:50:48 | we ever get up here today, if you see it on your chart, screenshot that, and then backtrack all through this, how price maneuvered and behaved if you rolled |
| 527 | 01:50:48 --> 01:51:01 | your stop here from entry to give yourself 100 hours a pizza dinner, date night, commission cost and pizza paid for Netflix and chill. Were you ever in a |
| 528 | 01:51:01 --> 01:51:12 | position where you're going to you're going to feel in jeopardy? No, you funded the trade. We're saying it hypothetically with first partial there, and then you |
| 529 | 01:51:12 --> 01:51:23 | take a second partial there, if you can afford to do so. You're not jamming your stop loss out there, because this is what you're going to get stopped out. So |
| 530 | 01:51:24 --> 01:51:39 | partials scratch that itch about moving stop losses. You you compensate the fear and the trepidation you feel about being in the trade because you want to lock |
| 531 | 01:51:39 --> 01:51:48 | in something, the easiest way to lock in something is to take a partial profit at the highs as they form, when price is trading into these PD arrays that are |
| 532 | 01:51:48 --> 01:51:57 | premium levels. What makes it premium? Because you're entering here and it's been moving higher. So you're looking at all of this range, from this high down |
| 533 | 01:51:57 --> 01:52:08 | to that low. Have you heard one customer yet? It's just a character, folks, it's just a character. I want to remind you that, because some of you act like I'm |
| 534 | 01:52:08 --> 01:52:15 | literally insane, I'm not. I do it to entertain because it makes it memorable. And whether you like me or not, you start talking about me, and when you talk |
| 535 | 01:52:15 --> 01:52:21 | about me, other people are like, What's he talking about? Why do you say that? And then all sudden, you get stuck in my web here, and you end up learning what |
| 536 | 01:52:21 --> 01:52:32 | really works in the marketplace. Works in the marketplace. When we ran above this hot here, we had it, but it came right back in and was being held stagnant |
| 537 | 01:52:32 --> 01:52:43 | in between all the new week, opening new day, opening gaps. See that. See how it's holding it down like a web, like a fly. Okay, imagine the the price is a |
| 538 | 01:52:43 --> 01:52:54 | fly, and these are spider webs. Price is getting tangled up in it, and a strong fly that's in a web where the spider's out doing something else. It's not in its |
| 539 | 01:52:54 --> 01:53:06 | web that never happens. I got webs in my backyard on our iron fence, and many times those spiders are not there until dusk and they're sitting there waiting |
| 540 | 01:53:06 --> 01:53:14 | for lunch to come in and get tangled up. But a strong fly can find its way out of a web. I've watched it happen as a kid. I've watched it happen living where |
| 541 | 01:53:14 --> 01:53:24 | I'm at now, and that's what happens here. It just gets out of the web and runs. Where's it going to go? Where the sugar is, baby, where's the sugar at? Up here. |
| 542 | 01:53:26 --> 01:53:34 | But it's getting swatted at. Okay? It says five. There's a fly swatter here. No, you can't get in there, just like when it's trying to eat your barbecue spare |
| 543 | 01:53:34 --> 01:53:47 | ribs, your chicken wings. You're at your cookout. Same silly fly that was trying to get on my crabs the other day when I was eating them, because drive me nuts. |
| 544 | 01:53:48 --> 01:53:56 | So I took a piece of crab, pinched it up, and put inside the crab shell, the hood of the crab, and I told my wife, stop swatting at it, because when you swat |
| 545 | 01:53:56 --> 01:54:03 | at it, it gets over here and tries to get on me, and I don't want it crawling on me. So I said, Let's watch. I wanted to land on the hood of that crap. I put |
| 546 | 01:54:03 --> 01:54:10 | crab meat in there. I wanted to go there. And it did. And it sat there and ate. So I was letting it have dinner with us so it couldn't crawl over me. So that's |
| 547 | 01:54:10 --> 01:54:18 | a tip for you. If you gotta cook out, give yourself a little piece of meat or something hamburger. Pinch it up, break it up, real small, and lay it down on a |
| 548 | 01:54:18 --> 01:54:24 | paper plate next to you. Their eyes gonna see the paper plate, because they know that you're eating off a cooked paper plate, and they'll land on that food, and |
| 549 | 01:54:24 --> 01:54:30 | as long as you don't disturb them, they'll eat to their full, and then they won't be bothering anymore. Didn't think that you ever learn that stuff from an |
| 550 | 01:54:30 --> 01:54:43 | ICT webinar. No cuss words, man. What's going on here? Alright, so I'm going to leave you with this. Watch this inefficiency here. We have essentially |
| 551 | 01:54:44 --> 01:54:52 | institutional order flow entry here. So if it's good, if it's really wanting to go up there, I would give it this opportunity here. Otherwise, it's probably |
| 552 | 01:54:52 --> 01:54:59 | going to bang around and spend more time in all this mess here. And I would not be wanting to trade that. I would be going doing something else. Go swim. Go. |
| 553 | 01:55:00 --> 01:55:09 | Get a coke out without flies and rub each other's crabs. I'll see you all tomorrow, Lord willing, right before the opening bell. I don't know exactly when |
| 554 | 01:55:09 --> 01:55:17 | it's going to be, but sometime right before opening bell, we'll be back at it again. Hope you found this insightful today, and enjoy yourself, relax and I'll |
| 555 | 01:55:18 --> 01:55:19 | talk to you tomorrow. Be safe. You. |