ICT YT - 2024-04-30 - Reading Price Without A Bias - Day 2 of 3
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-05-02 10:28
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ICT YT - 2024-04-30 - Reading Price Without A Bias - Day 2 of 3
02:38 - Forex and technical analysis with charts and indicators.
- ICT (speaker) discusses the economic calendar and Forex market, highlighting key events and potential volatility.
- ICT (speaker) analyzes the dollar index and British pound on a 15-minute time frame, using data from Forex.com.
- ICT uses the same data for mentorship videos and personal analysis.
- ICT plots the dollar index on the low of each interval to show relationship between intervals.
08:50 - Trading without bias, focusing on price inefficiencies and liquidity.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of not trading with a daily bias, instead focusing on intraday volatility and liquidity.
- ICT will use Forex and stock index futures for trading today, without a bias, relying on price action and liquidity.
- ICT highlights the importance of understanding market structure, order blocks, and liquidity to read price inefficiencies and make informed trading decisions.
- ICT emphasizes the potential for brokers to manipulate spreads and liquidate traders, particularly in the Forex market, and the importance of being aware of these dynamics.
14:25 - Market inefficiencies and how to identify and trade them.
- The speaker identifies an inefficiency in the market and highlights a potential trampoline for price advancement.
- The speaker analyzes a consolidation pattern and determines the potential for price to move higher.
- ICT explains how algorithms reprice and offer liquidity to smart money at higher prices.
19:25 - Trading strategies using price action and market maker behavior.
- The speaker discussed the concept of equilibrium in trading, explaining that it acts as a discount when bullish and a premium when bearish.
- The speaker emphasized the importance of identifying the correct dealing range and avoiding down close candles that are in a premium level above equilibrium.
- ICT builds positions into premium levels, stopping at equilibrium or higher.
- Avoid cherry-picking or oversimplifying ICT concepts, as it can lead to misinterpretation and poor results.
- ICT explains market maker bimodal behavior using rock climbing analogy.
26:12 - Technical analysis and trading strategies using price action.
- The speaker identifies specific price points as footholds for climbing higher, using algorithmic design to anticipate price action.
- The speaker expects smart money to be hit as price action quickly moves up and down, with signature signatures in place.
- ICT explains why some traders can't replicate his strategies: lack of understanding of higher timeframes and inability to flesh out a narrative.
- ICT highlights the importance of measuring and respecting bodies in the market, and how retail traders may misinterpret resistance levels.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of identifying liquidity levels in trading.
- ICT believes seasonal tendencies can be trusted to repeat in certain months of the year.
35:06 - Trading strategies and patterns, including false bull and bear flags.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of experience and exposure in trading, rather than relying on shortcuts or magic tricks.
- The speaker dismisses TikTok mentality individuals who want a quick fix or overnight riches, emphasizing that trading requires dedication and hard work.
- The speaker discusses reversal patterns in technical analysis, including the false bull flag and false bear flag.
- The speaker shares their personal experience with trading, including failing to recognize bull flags and losing money in their first trade.
- ICT teaches a pattern recognition method for trading, which involves identifying bull and bear flags in charts.
- ICT claims that his mentorship program provides everything needed to understand his trading methods, including 12 months of premium content and 12 charter membership models.
42:38 - Using dollar index to predict pound movement.
- ICT warns of fake bull flags in the pound, highlighting the dollar index's discount.
- ICT: Retail minded logic for false bull flag in pound, with inversion favor for bullish bias.
- Flagpole and wicks reveal inversion fair value gap, with sell side of curve to be attacked.
48:21 - Trading strategies using reversal patterns in a correlated market.
- Analyze low candle wicks for potential trade opportunities.
- ICT warns of high-frequency trading predators in the market.
- Reversal patterns in Forex trading require a correlated market, specifically the dollar index.
54:10 - Trading and market analysis.
- ICT explains that a "mitigation block" is not a bullish order block, despite what some traders may think.
- The dollar index and the British Pound versus dollar are likely to put resistance on any advance or move higher in foreign currencies, if the dollar is going higher.
- ICT recounts a losing trade from their early days of trading, highlighting the importance of learning from mistakes.
- ICT emphasizes the value of avoiding emotional decision-making in trading, citing their own experience with fear and greed.
- ICT stresses the importance of a holistic approach to trading, considering multiple perspectives and avoiding tunnel vision.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of having realistic expectations when starting a new trading system.
- The speaker believes that setting unrealistic goals can lead to frustration and failure.
01:04:01 - Trading strategies in a challenging market environment.
- ICT says he lacks self-discipline to stick to a plan and trade with precision.
- ICT advocates for intraday trading without daily bias, using surgical strikes and quick profits.
- Trader emphasizes importance of understanding market dynamics and using retail logic to make profitable trades.
- ICT argues that trading with daily bias requires comparing stronger vs weaker currencies, like POUND DOLLAR.
- In a landmine field of an economic calendar, ICT suggests avoiding specific trading strategies this week.
01:11:05 - Avoiding trading on high-impact news days, particularly non-farm payroll releases.
- The speaker avoids trading on Thursday and Friday before non-farm payroll release, as the data is highly manipulated and can create market volatility.
- The speaker prioritizes trading on other days, as they know what to expect and can avoid potential risks associated with non-farm payroll release.
01:19:31 - Trading psychology and the importance of sticking to a draw.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of mental capital in trading, warning against wasting time and mental energy on failed trades.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding market psychology and weathering adversities as a trader.
- The speaker advises against trading without a clear drawl and entry methods, and emphasizes the importance of staying on one side of the marketplace.
01:24:42 - Trading strategies using opening range gaps.
- The speaker identifies a range with two opposing wicks, indicating a fair value gap.
- The speaker uses consequent encroachments to determine the gap's potential trading levels.
- The speaker believes a setup is needed for a trade to be successful this week due to the economic calendar.
- The speaker is looking for a clear gap in the opening range to trade, with a midpoint being the strongest likelihood of a return.
- Observe first 30 minutes for large institutional traders' orders.
- ICT warns of potential false breakout in silver, suggests waiting for confirmation before trading.
01:34:49 - Using technical analysis to predict stock market movements.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of identifying potential entry points in the first 30 minutes of trading.
01:38:39 - Stock market analysis and potential trading opportunities.
- Speaker considers taking profits during midpoint of opening range gap.
- ICT expects mid-cap breakout if buy side clears gap, but prefers liquid lead above consolidation.
01:44:09 - Potential market rally and sell-off.
- ICT suggests market may reverse after reaching midpoint gap.
- ICT: Low probability of inefficiencies until reaching a specific price point.
01:51:14 - Potential stock price movements, with a focus on 896 and 910.
- ICT believes support at 896/910 may be largest pool of initial liquidity.
- ICT expects a potential breakdown in the near term, but lacks an entry point to trade.
01:57:22 - Stock market sentiment and potential price movements.
- ICT is hesitant to analyze sentiment due to lack of proficiency in live streaming.
- ICT: Watching for sharp turns lower, hoping for a rally.
02:03:03 - Stock market rebalancing and potential for NASDAQ to reclaim its highs.
- ICT: Rebalancing among 63 quarters, no interest in S&P, potential reclaim of NASDAQ.
02:06:51 - Market conditions and potential trading opportunities.
- Trader waits for clear signals before making a move.
02:09:37 - Stock market analysis with focus on unfilled gap.
- ICT discusses NASDAQ, highlighting a recent breakout and failed rally.
- ICT suggests trading above a level could catalyze S&P upside.
- ICT: Unfilled gap remains, no interest in fluctuations.
02:16:50 - Market analysis and trading strategies.
- Speaker discusses market volatility and the importance of managing patience in trading.
- The speaker asks themselves rhetorical questions to assess the market's direction, such as if long from the opening, would they feel confident now?
- The speaker analyzes the profitability of different holders and notes that long holders have a modest edge, but this could change.
02:22:40 - Stock market with focus on liquidity and potential price movements.
- ICT struggles with bodies in a gap, adds to handles, and expresses frustration with colleges.
- ICT expects a potential drop to 642-824, with heavy candles and range potential.
02:27:49 - Technical analysis and trading strategies using candlestick charts.
- ICT shares insights on market analysis and observation.
- ICT identifies volume imbalance and heavy candles to time trades.
02:32:05 - Trading strategies in challenging market conditions.
- ICT highlights the challenges of trading in difficult market conditions, emphasizing the importance of learning from these experiences.
- ICT explains how smart money manipulates price action in these environments, creating inefficiencies that traders can exploit.
- The speaker waits for a fair value gap to form before taking a trade, preferring to sell first and then run up.
- The speaker analyzes the market's behavior to determine when to take a trade, looking for instances where the market is showing its hand.
- The first 30 minutes of trading are important for institutional trading and algorithmic activity.
- A weak market will stagnate or drop if it cannot reach a premium array or gap.
- ICT: Market structure shifted, bodies had trouble getting out of positions.
- ICT: Watch for acceleration below 2 lows, no let-off for short sellers.
02:43:08 - Market manipulation, liquidity, and trading strategies.
- Trader predicts major market event, removes themselves from Forex trading.
- ICT predicts a financial crisis and major bank collapses, citing signs of market instability.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of waiting for market intel before making trades, citing the need to anticipate timing and magnitude.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding the role of liquidity in the markets and how it affects trading.
- The speaker advises traders to learn how to wait for the obvious price movement instead of constantly pushing their edge.
02:50:12 - Trading Forex and avoiding market risks.
- The speaker is frustrated with their inability to reach some of their mentees and feels helpless despite their best efforts.
- The speaker believes that the market will experience difficult conditions in the near future and wants to protect themselves from potential losses.
- Trader warns against limiting investments to popular markets like Forex and crypto.
- ICT believes Bitcoin is a Trojan horse for Central Bank digital currencies.
02:57:07 - Market volatility and trading strategies.
- ICT warns of potential market volatility, emphasizing the importance of stop losses.
- ICT discusses inefficiencies in the Forex market and their impact on price movements.
03:00:39 - Trading reversal patterns and entry strategies.
- The speaker discusses island reversal patterns in candlestick charting, highlighting their significance in identifying potential reversals in the market.
- The speaker provides examples of island reversals, explaining how they occur and how they can be used to enter trades.
- ICT claims to have found a pattern in the Australian dollar's price movements.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of patience and waiting for the right trading opportunities, rather than rushing into trades impulsively.
- The speaker highlights the importance of understanding the order flow and how it can be used to anticipate potential trading opportunities.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding market conditions and using models to make informed trading decisions.
- ICT encourages listeners to learn from his content and apply it to their own trading, even in challenging market conditions.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:02:38 --> 00:02:50 | ICT: Good morning, folks. Sorry for the short delay. I've been fighting an eyelash how to get an eyelash on my left arm, it still feels like it's there. So |
| 2 | 00:02:50 --> 00:03:01 | hopefully stopped bothering me here. So welcome. Good morning. It is a good morning. It is a good morning. So we're looking at the economic calendar or |
| 3 | 00:03:01 --> 00:03:16 | should be, you should be seeing it rather, the Forex factory calendar is pretty loaded. This this week here. I added the euro and pound news drivers for this |
| 4 | 00:03:16 --> 00:03:29 | week because for the next hour or so, we'll be talking specifically about forex. So if you're not into Forex, you know, come back. In about an hour or so we'll |
| 5 | 00:03:29 --> 00:03:41 | be transitioning back to index futures. But if you're here to learn, and want to take away some added insights about reading price, it's the same things whether |
| 6 | 00:03:41 --> 00:03:52 | you apply it to Forex or futures, commodities bonds, or what have you. And the guys have been going through some withdrawals because I haven't touched on forex |
| 7 | 00:03:52 --> 00:03:59 | for a while. So we'll look at that for a little bit. But take a look at the economic calendar here for a second for today. |
| 8 | 00:04:09 --> 00:04:27 | Alright, so at 830 We should see some fireworks, some volatility. And then towards the lunch hour. I'll leave you some comments about what I think the pm |
| 9 | 00:04:27 --> 00:04:38 | session may or may not do. So I won't be here with you. And then we'll be back at it again for our final portion of this workshop for this week. Tomorrow at |
| 10 | 00:04:38 --> 00:04:49 | 8am where we will focus primarily back to just stock index futures. So Forex is only gonna be touched on today. Okay, I know who he is. So we're gonna take a |
| 11 | 00:04:49 --> 00:05:06 | look at the trading view. All right, and don't get aspx, that's not an indicator. That's the dollar index overlay. But give me a second here, let me |
| 12 | 00:05:06 --> 00:05:23 | get the screen maximized. I see if he's got an indicator on his chart. Yeah, open high low and close the upper left hand corner, make sure you guys should be |
| 13 | 00:05:23 --> 00:05:26 | hearing me, okay? So |
| 14 | 00:05:32 --> 00:05:40 | alright, so we have the upper left hand corner chart, that is the dollar index, the 15 minute time frame. lower left hand corner is the British pound, that's a |
| 15 | 00:05:40 --> 00:05:51 | 15 minute time frame. I draw Forex dot coms data. That's the one I always use. And you'll see that in the mentorship videos, even a student of mine for any |
| 16 | 00:05:51 --> 00:05:59 | length of time, you know that that's the data I use, I don't use a lander, I don't use any other type of brokerage firm, that's the one I use, certainly |
| 17 | 00:05:59 --> 00:06:12 | everybody has the same data. And obviously, the larger chart here is your dollar. The chart here are oscillating lying down here is just simply the dollar |
| 18 | 00:06:12 --> 00:06:25 | index plotted as an overlay, or compare. And you do that by clicking on this little tab, compare it when you click on that dollar. And if you want to act |
| 19 | 00:06:25 --> 00:06:37 | like an indicator plotted underneath your chart, which is what I advise, you click on new pain. And when you do that, it populates the chart down here. So |
| 20 | 00:06:37 --> 00:06:50 | the settings I have at present, it's plotted on the low. Okay, so what I'm showing is the relationship to where the the lowest low of each interval. And |
| 21 | 00:06:50 --> 00:07:02 | since we're looking at a one hour chart here for Euro at the present, it's basically plotting it on the low of every hourly duration. And same things over |
| 22 | 00:07:02 --> 00:07:11 | here, just this smaller chart. So I kind of like want to talk a little bit about how what we mentioned yesterday, with the dollar index, I'm going to maximize |
| 23 | 00:07:11 --> 00:07:32 | the chart just for a moment. And we're going to take us back up to a weekly chart. So everything is as it was explained yesterday. So we have this month |
| 24 | 00:07:32 --> 00:07:50 | because I want you to see you again where that big blue ranges delineated from here on this city, okay. And then then back down into weekly chart. We mentioned |
| 25 | 00:07:50 --> 00:08:03 | in this area here, based on the equilibrium and more consequent encouragement of the subsequent ranges that we mentioned yesterday. So I don't want to repeat all |
| 26 | 00:08:03 --> 00:08:15 | that. In here, we talked about how this candles high that candles low gives us a bottle of ourselves on an efficiency, I did not color it because I wanted you to |
| 27 | 00:08:15 --> 00:08:28 | see the consequent encroachment of it, which is here. And then this range, this inefficiency there that will be found on the daily chart. That's this one here. |
| 28 | 00:08:28 --> 00:08:39 | Okay. So we covered all that yesterday. And I want you to take a look at how this daily bias on unbalanced sell sudden efficiency, which is this particular |
| 29 | 00:08:39 --> 00:08:53 | candle how it behaved intraday. Okay, I mentioned how we could see a little bit of a give back in the dollar index yesterday we got that. And longer term. I |
| 30 | 00:08:53 --> 00:09:04 | expect them to try to work towards by side this week. On all the reports if you missed it yesterday could have solved a bunch of people leaving posts and |
| 31 | 00:09:04 --> 00:09:13 | comments. was I saying that we're trying to trade with a bias or without a bias this week? If you've listened to the recording yesterday during the live stream, |
| 32 | 00:09:13 --> 00:09:24 | you can go back and watch it now. The premise was weird to trade without a bias. But done in my head. I have to tell you what I believe what I believe is going |
| 33 | 00:09:24 --> 00:09:35 | to be the draw. Okay. So because it's a Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, draw on liquidity, submitting to the likelihood that it could be it could have been |
| 34 | 00:09:35 --> 00:09:49 | yesterday. It could be today, four by noon time or maybe it's the reaction off of the rate announcement. Tomorrow afternoon. It either end of the spectrum. |
| 35 | 00:09:50 --> 00:09:59 | We're not trying to trade with a daily bias we're we're trying to get the known bias in a week like that, like we have this week is too many high impact News. |
| 36 | 00:10:00 --> 00:10:10 | Drivers, it's Non Farm Payroll, there's just way too many things to try to adhere to or hold yourself to the flames of, I have to know the daily bias in |
| 37 | 00:10:10 --> 00:10:18 | the direction of the day, you don't need that. And that was the whole point of communicating what I did as much as I did the beginning of the livestream |
| 38 | 00:10:18 --> 00:10:27 | yesterday. We don't need a bias, okay, and that's primarily what we're gonna be focusing on today. Okay, so I'll be doing that with Forex for the first hour. |
| 39 | 00:10:28 --> 00:10:37 | And then we're going to go into stock index futures and again, without a bias, so we're gonna be reading price off the cuff using just intraday volatility, |
| 40 | 00:10:37 --> 00:10:51 | that's it, liquidity, inefficiencies, those types of things. Last bit of preamble, it is not an invitation for you to avoid trying to learn how to find a |
| 41 | 00:10:51 --> 00:11:01 | bias. Because if you can focus there, that skill set will serve you well. It also filter a lot of losing trades. But while you're practicing, and your tape |
| 42 | 00:11:01 --> 00:11:10 | reading, you're going to be able to use a lot of things I teach today and what I taught yesterday. So anyway, that we'll have the bison about self sufficiency, |
| 43 | 00:11:10 --> 00:11:20 | which is this particular candle here on the daily chart for the dollar. That candles high is the low it's being highlighted here. And you can see how we, we |
| 44 | 00:11:20 --> 00:11:28 | just went out of it, by wicks only in the bodies are staying within it. So let's go into intraday price action. |
| 45 | 00:11:34 --> 00:11:50 | Okay, you can see how we Wikked outside of here, in here. And now we're starting a new day in 15 minute time frame, right here. See that the bodies were just |
| 46 | 00:11:50 --> 00:12:00 | outside of the range there, we Wikked outside of there. But yesterday during trading, the low and the close of that candle is right on the low of that shaded |
| 47 | 00:12:00 --> 00:12:11 | area that makes the daily fair value go. We opened on the same price and went higher. So we whipped outside of it. Because the the wicks can do that |
| 48 | 00:12:11 --> 00:12:21 | exaggerated price wrong. It can color outside the lines that this is the number one reason why I still get people asking me, Why do you speak against |
| 49 | 00:12:21 --> 00:12:32 | individuals trying to trade with a two pip stop loss? Well, if you're trading with a funded account, and your your stops are really not in the market, because |
| 50 | 00:12:32 --> 00:12:44 | they're all demo that you might be able to skirt around things like that, maybe I'm not convinced that that's entirely true. But the fact that the markets can |
| 51 | 00:12:44 --> 00:12:53 | have a widening of the spread, and your broker is going to have a different load than most every other broker if you're trading Forex. So that's it built in |
| 52 | 00:12:53 --> 00:13:02 | disadvantage to trading Forex. Whereas if you're trading futures, everybody has the same low. Everyone has the same high. And it's a more it's a it's a |
| 53 | 00:13:02 --> 00:13:12 | gentleman's market, whereas Forex is, it's the Wild Wild West, you're in there gunslinging with a broker that will absolutely try to cannibalize you. And you |
| 54 | 00:13:12 --> 00:13:19 | give them permission, when you sign the documents, they open up the account. So when it's advantageous for them to open the spread to take you out of your |
| 55 | 00:13:19 --> 00:13:31 | trade, look and liquidate you. They will. Okay, so And unfortunately you gave them permission when you open up your account. But look at the body's telling |
| 56 | 00:13:31 --> 00:13:44 | you exactly what I teach that the underlying narrative is derived from knowing how to read price inefficiencies, liquidity, market structure, order blocks, |
| 57 | 00:13:44 --> 00:13:53 | every other pdra how they all support one another and come together like a beautiful tapestry. When you know what you're looking for, by themselves, you |
| 58 | 00:13:53 --> 00:14:01 | know, we talked about this yesterday, there's no real advantage to any one individual PDF, a PDF raise something to order block, a fair value gap, |
| 59 | 00:14:02 --> 00:14:13 | institutional workflow entry drill, a long list of the things I've already mentioned in other videos. But this right here, in the case that we have turned |
| 60 | 00:14:13 --> 00:14:26 | the corner, and now if it's going to go from the low into that fear guy you got Where is buyside where are the inefficiencies in terms of a premium. We have |
| 61 | 00:14:26 --> 00:14:36 | this high, that low. Right away we have this inefficiency, we have this inefficiency to have this inefficiency and then the buy stops resting above |
| 62 | 00:14:36 --> 00:14:51 | here. And that's high probability draw on liquidity because what's over here we have this all of this is open. All that right, there's open. So once we start to |
| 63 | 00:14:51 --> 00:15:04 | trade higher, you want to look at how down close candles should be supporting price advancing higher We moved bodies stay within the context of that daily |
| 64 | 00:15:04 --> 00:15:14 | Vega market trades up, we have down close candle, does the price come back down to it eventually. And as a support price going higher, the high of that candle |
| 65 | 00:15:14 --> 00:15:35 | comes in at, you're gonna be looking up here. The high that candle is one, zero 5.58. The low on this candle is 105 point 577. So did it hit that level there in |
| 66 | 00:15:35 --> 00:15:48 | reverse or show willingness to Africa trampoline? And rally higher? Yes. Now we have these two down close candles here. This is one consecutive order block. Why |
| 67 | 00:15:48 --> 00:15:58 | is it an order block? Because we are in the lower half of the range between that high and that low? So if we trade above it and come back down into it, it should |
| 68 | 00:15:58 --> 00:16:10 | support just like a trampoline. With the trees down to it, does it support a move higher? And do we see price moving higher towards a higher inefficiency, |
| 69 | 00:16:10 --> 00:16:22 | which would be here and or buy stops. There's a small little short term minor by liquidity pool here because we have a candle high, higher high lower highs as a |
| 70 | 00:16:22 --> 00:16:31 | swing high. So there's going to be trailed stop losses right there. And that's usually a big mistake, especially when it's coupled with a inefficiency just to |
| 71 | 00:16:31 --> 00:16:41 | the left. And then you have to buy stuff that would be resting over here. The market capitalizes on the order block here moves higher, we have a small little |
| 72 | 00:16:41 --> 00:16:51 | gap between this candle and that candle. So there's your fair value gap. trades down into it there. Does it have a willingness to trade higher? Yes. |
| 73 | 00:16:52 --> 00:17:02 | Consolidation down closed candle. It moves outside of the up. Sorry, the down closed candle? Does it trade back down into it? Yes, that's equity trampoline. |
| 74 | 00:17:02 --> 00:17:15 | Same price higher? Yes. So we bridge this inefficiency. We patched over basically all the sell side with Bas I'd see the acceleration in price action |
| 75 | 00:17:15 --> 00:17:26 | right there. That's occurring because you have this, all of this sell side delivery. Remember, I thought yesterday, sell side delivery is expansion or one |
| 76 | 00:17:26 --> 00:17:38 | directional move lower by side delivery is expanded or one one sided, upward, more by side delivery or advancing expansion move higher in price to Spacely. |
| 77 | 00:17:38 --> 00:17:51 | It's directionally driven in its offering by psi. It's offering it to the market. What I mean by offering it well, if the market does want to gravitate to |
| 78 | 00:17:51 --> 00:18:03 | an old high or relatively equal highs, why is it going there, the algorithms repricing to that level to offer the buy side to the smart money. That's that's |
| 79 | 00:18:03 --> 00:18:12 | the way the system works. If you think like smart money, like I'm teaching you, you'll engage price that way. But most people and I'm you know, I've been on the |
| 80 | 00:18:12 --> 00:18:21 | record for decades now teaching and showcasing and proving that these things are absolutely here. But you'll still see a lot of people and some of you probably |
| 81 | 00:18:21 --> 00:18:31 | listening still don't want to admit that. You know, there is some kind of artificial intelligence that's running things. And it runs very efficient. But |
| 82 | 00:18:31 --> 00:18:45 | it's going to these by stops in order to offer by side to smart money. And they will what they will offset distribute their long positions to willing buyers at |
| 83 | 00:18:45 --> 00:19:01 | a higher price. Where did they buy? Here? They're there. They're there. There. This is institutional order flow entry drill. This is for your notes to whenever |
| 84 | 00:19:01 --> 00:19:12 | you're in a buy program, it's a buy program by program is where price is going to be one sided. It's in the process of running to buy side liquidity for a |
| 85 | 00:19:12 --> 00:19:28 | obvious premium inefficiency, which would be this okay. Or the stocks resting both here Once we cross equilibrium. Now we enter into what? It's a premium |
| 86 | 00:19:28 --> 00:19:40 | market. But at equilibrium while we're in a buy program or when we're bullish, it acts as a discount. So on your notes, if you missed it yesterday, I've said |
| 87 | 00:19:40 --> 00:19:57 | it in other places when I taught when you are trading in a range equilibrium when bullish is a discount. Equilibrium when bearish is a premium. So I |
| 88 | 00:19:57 --> 00:20:06 | mentioned yesterday, we were looking at this Vega, I mentioned how we could drop down a little bit. It stayed within the context of that daily, your Vega, then |
| 89 | 00:20:06 --> 00:20:22 | we started moving higher. Higher knew they needed an opening gap. Equilibrium is this level right here. We were down close candle close proximity to that that |
| 90 | 00:20:22 --> 00:20:32 | means yes, this can be an order block to trade to you do not look at these down close candles as an order block. It's not they are not a bullish order block. |
| 91 | 00:20:33 --> 00:20:41 | ICT Why don't you look at that down close candle or those series of down close candles? And why didn't you look at that as a potential way to trade down to and |
| 92 | 00:20:41 --> 00:20:52 | create as a Autoblog. Just taught it to you? It's relative to the dealing range of trading in what's the dealing range? The high and the low? Why is that a |
| 93 | 00:20:52 --> 00:21:02 | dealing range? Because I taught you on April 8 of 2024 is live stream that are dealing ranges is when both sides of the liquidity is taken. What's above these |
| 94 | 00:21:02 --> 00:21:11 | what's above this high here by stops it went above it and then traded lower. Where did this logo to just below that low right there? So what did it do? It |
| 95 | 00:21:11 --> 00:21:21 | took both sides of liquidity. Do you see how the rules keep repeating? Nothing's being reinvented and I'm not manipulating and distorting anything. It's always |
| 96 | 00:21:21 --> 00:21:28 | remaining constant. But you don't want to be looking at down close candles that are in a premium level. |
| 97 | 00:21:30 --> 00:21:43 | above equilibrium, this order block returned back to the equal equilibrium level or 50% Mark of the high in the low that dealing range. So when it trades above |
| 98 | 00:21:43 --> 00:21:53 | it, yes, we are looking for that to support price. But now watch what it takes place. Any down close candle after that we don't care about referring to it as |
| 99 | 00:21:53 --> 00:22:01 | an order block. Because we're now on a premium. We don't want to add anything. Remember I was teaching yesterday. If I'm pyramiding a position, I'm building it |
| 100 | 00:22:01 --> 00:22:12 | into a larger position. Once I get to a point where I will have basically 60% of the position or not position but the the potential unrealized range or target |
| 101 | 00:22:13 --> 00:22:26 | for the trade I'm trying to be a participant in I stopped adding. The hard line rule is once we get into a premium level at equilibrium or higher, I don't want |
| 102 | 00:22:26 --> 00:22:39 | to add any more. For my own personal tastes, I do it just below equilibrium. And I'll stop adding. But the hard the hard line rules are you can do it at |
| 103 | 00:22:39 --> 00:22:49 | equilibrium. But once we go above if we had any situation like this, don't look at any down close candles. Once we're in a premium in a buy program where the |
| 104 | 00:22:49 --> 00:22:59 | market is predisposed to go higher to take out in any inefficiency. That's a premium level this is premium because it's above equilibrium. So if you look at |
| 105 | 00:22:59 --> 00:23:14 | the this is the high end this is the low this inefficiency is where it's in a discount. It's it's below the 50% so that's not a target. So what is it what is |
| 106 | 00:23:14 --> 00:23:24 | that right there? What is this right here? It's a sell side and balance by selling efficiency. Yes, basically it's a down close candle that represents a |
| 107 | 00:23:24 --> 00:23:32 | fair value gap. We are not looking at that as let's get up into that and sell off the take out the relative equal lows down here that's where people that |
| 108 | 00:23:32 --> 00:23:42 | wants the five minute trainer additions or individuals come they sample size sample set my my content they cherry pick some things and they rename something |
| 109 | 00:23:42 --> 00:23:52 | or they think it's a five minute ICT Trainer I'm going to teach you learn five learn ICT in five minutes learn ICT in one hour. That's why they they don't do |
| 110 | 00:23:52 --> 00:24:02 | well. Okay and I advise people not to do that not to kick sand in their face not to hate on them. But you're doing it wrong and that's number one reason why |
| 111 | 00:24:02 --> 00:24:10 | there's a small group of people that think this stuff doesn't work because they watch your who's out there they don't know what they're talking about try to |
| 112 | 00:24:10 --> 00:24:20 | teach it in a way that doesn't line up with what me as the creator intended for you to learn. So if this city, which is a fair value got sort of bounced by 10 |
| 113 | 00:24:20 --> 00:24:41 | inefficiency if it's part of the sell side of the curve this right here Once we cross over there this becomes an inversion fair Vega light bulb moment right? Oh |
| 114 | 00:24:41 --> 00:24:45 | my goodness, it's starting to make sense. So if we look at it like this |
| 115 | 00:24:53 --> 00:25:04 | see other downloads came that goes right into the old inefficiency. Everything part of a market maker bimodal is that's what this is, has to match up with the |
| 116 | 00:25:04 --> 00:25:15 | sell side of the curve sell side of the curve is when a market maker bimodal, it's the down initial download. And then the market claws its way back up to |
| 117 | 00:25:15 --> 00:25:24 | clear out the original consolidation in a go above it where the bystanders are gonna be wrestling. So you use all these things like a rock climber does, okay, |
| 118 | 00:25:24 --> 00:25:33 | if you if you've ever watched a rock climber, and I've used this analogy before, when he got to a surface of a rock or cliff, they look at it, and they, they see |
| 119 | 00:25:33 --> 00:25:40 | where they're gonna grab, where they're gonna use for a foothold. And they can do it in a minute or so they can already plan the route and they've never been |
| 120 | 00:25:40 --> 00:25:50 | on that rock surface before. How do they know that they can trust their, their plane of ascension pad? How, how do they know that they can trust that |
| 121 | 00:25:50 --> 00:26:03 | experience? See, when you're looking at this rock surface, or this cliff of price action, that from this hide down to that low, my mind is okay, we're going |
| 122 | 00:26:03 --> 00:26:14 | to need to use this, we're going to need to use that, we're going to need to use that. And the zenith to get to the top of it is here. That's my goal. But all of |
| 123 | 00:26:14 --> 00:26:24 | these price points, here are footholds. I'm gonna wait. Once I get to these areas where I can grab on to something that gets me into this facility where I |
| 124 | 00:26:24 --> 00:26:33 | can place my foot on that, then I'm going to wait for a new handhold a little area where I can put my hand on it and then pull myself up to get into this |
| 125 | 00:26:33 --> 00:26:46 | area. So these are all known are static, they can't hide them from you. So when you know that you can take the the very casual approach to seeing well, this is |
| 126 | 00:26:47 --> 00:26:58 | this is where I want to focus. And when price does in fact, get above it, like a rock climber, they're gonna want to use it as a foothold. And a climb above it. |
| 127 | 00:26:59 --> 00:27:12 | Another foothold climb up into this area here, foothold Same thing here. This is not support and resistance folks, as much as they want to call it that, you'll |
| 128 | 00:27:12 --> 00:27:26 | never see this in any classic Support Resistance theory. This is all me. This is all coded. It's all algorithmically designed. This run here look completely |
| 129 | 00:27:26 --> 00:27:37 | shoots up. And read delivers all the sell side delivery here, all these expensive candles that are down close. That thin price action real quick, sudden |
| 130 | 00:27:37 --> 00:27:46 | movement lower, it's replicated with the movement up. What does that tell you, that's a signature, that you're absolutely going to see the buyside get hit. |
| 131 | 00:27:47 --> 00:27:56 | That's that's designed to be there. It gives smart money, you're going to probably hear a little bit of sound and background, I apologize. I'm in my |
| 132 | 00:27:56 --> 00:28:05 | office today. And the vent with air conditioner is going to probably compete with me. Don't write comments complaining about because all I do is is being I |
| 133 | 00:28:05 --> 00:28:13 | don't want to see bitching and whining. And don't ask me for more breaks. Okay, if you can't pause, or come back and rewind the video or watch it later on, |
| 134 | 00:28:13 --> 00:28:22 | that's on you, I'm not going to slow down my role because you can't keep up. It's recorded after all. But this quick delivery in price action that matches |
| 135 | 00:28:22 --> 00:28:31 | the quick delivery price action on the downside. So when I'm talking about I want to see certain signatures and price action, that's a signature. Just like I |
| 136 | 00:28:31 --> 00:28:41 | want to see when price starts to rally every down close candle that offers a fear that you get, if you're in a bike program, you are not thinking. So I'm |
| 137 | 00:28:41 --> 00:28:46 | going to go up here and sell short into that, or I'm going to go and sell short into that, or it's going to go up to here and I'm gonna sell short. And to that |
| 138 | 00:28:47 --> 00:28:55 | you see how you have to have an understanding of the higher timeframe. You have to flesh out a narrative why price should behave a certain way. And that's the |
| 139 | 00:28:55 --> 00:29:02 | reason why you're not going to get these five minute trainers out there. These guys that are trying to make these revamped versions of what I taught, because |
| 140 | 00:29:02 --> 00:29:10 | they want ad revenue, they want attention, they want clout, but they're not able to do it. They're not able to explain it properly, because you're getting it for |
| 141 | 00:29:10 --> 00:29:20 | the first time here too. And it's for free. I want you to learn how to do it. I want you to learn how to do it well. So you can see how once we get through it |
| 142 | 00:29:20 --> 00:29:30 | both fast movement lower, fast movement higher down, look at the bodies respecting what what is it respecting the inefficiency. There's no support |
| 143 | 00:29:30 --> 00:29:40 | resistance there. It's the fact that that inefficiency is being reversed referred to by the algorithm. So now it will do what it will then run from there |
| 144 | 00:29:40 --> 00:29:51 | to go to the buy side right there. And as you see, they have relative equal highs, which they'll leave in place so that way people will trust what they'll |
| 145 | 00:29:51 --> 00:30:03 | think it's resistance. So if anybody sees it as resistance retail is going to want to do with that. They're gonna want to go short. They drop it down, where's |
| 146 | 00:30:03 --> 00:30:14 | it dropped to? What's this level? That's equilibrium. So the market comes all the way back down into equilibrium rallies. And then we blow out the highs. |
| 147 | 00:30:17 --> 00:30:30 | Apologize, I wanted to get that portion out of the way before we get to the third news release. But now excuse me I want to go back up to a hourly chart for |
| 148 | 00:30:30 --> 00:30:30 | a moment. |
| 149 | 00:30:47 --> 00:30:57 | Efficient warm sort of five ton unit sounds like upstairs. Okay. |
| 150 | 00:31:04 --> 00:31:16 | So we're relatively equal highs in here. So as long as we don't give up, all this in Crash back down, this right here is the draw. And then we have this |
| 151 | 00:31:16 --> 00:31:27 | wick. With that I'll tell you about the whips their gaps. So while that high might be where it may go, they may not especially on the things that are weak |
| 152 | 00:31:27 --> 00:31:45 | like we have today. So you want to measure you're always in the wrong place. It's amazing how it's always like that. It's getting quiet again. So once you're |
| 153 | 00:31:45 --> 00:31:51 | 6.152. So that's consequent encroachment. So we can put a level on that |
| 154 | 00:32:02 --> 00:32:13 | it's close enough for government work. Alright, so with all that in mind, and everything that's in play here, and what I outlined, you want to go to your |
| 155 | 00:32:13 --> 00:32:23 | British Pound versus US dollar chart, you want to go to your Euro dollar chart, you want to go to your Australian versus US dollar chart. You want to look at |
| 156 | 00:32:23 --> 00:32:34 | your dollar yen, meanwhile, have you seen the yen got smashed, right? The the relationships to what the dollar index was doing, as I outlined it on the 15 |
| 157 | 00:32:34 --> 00:32:47 | minute timeframe, those turning points, you want to look at how those respective pairs I've listed that are dollar based like pound dollar, euro dollar, how did |
| 158 | 00:32:47 --> 00:32:59 | they behave? What type of scenario did you see in those charts? I mentioned in the description of this workshop over the weekend, when I was announcing |
| 159 | 00:32:59 --> 00:33:12 | basically my interest in wanting to do it. If we can see a number of continuation entry points, which is predominately what you're used to seeing |
| 160 | 00:33:12 --> 00:33:21 | with me, very rarely do I ever touch on reversal patterns. Because what does that really do? It flies in the face of me trying to teach new students. And |
| 161 | 00:33:21 --> 00:33:30 | there's always a new influx of new people coming to my channel. I don't want them to fall victim to trying to do reversal patterns, because that implies a |
| 162 | 00:33:30 --> 00:33:40 | great deal of understanding that may or may not be had by that individual that may be just coming to my channel, which is why I teach try to focus on learning |
| 163 | 00:33:40 --> 00:33:47 | how to determine where to draw on liquidity is. And if you can't determine where the draw and liquidity is, then you're the liquidity, you're going to get |
| 164 | 00:33:47 --> 00:33:54 | liquidated. So you don't want to trade ignorantly you don't want to be ignorant to what the markets likely to be reaching for. Because that's the most important |
| 165 | 00:33:54 --> 00:34:02 | thing. It's not where do I get at where where's my entry points. Because literally, that's the least important thing. That's the you have multiple |
| 166 | 00:34:02 --> 00:34:13 | reasons to get into a move if you know where it's really going. The hard part is learning to trust, the observations and the recognition in price to determine |
| 167 | 00:34:13 --> 00:34:22 | where it's going to go. Where's it reaching for, because it's going to continuously grind or move at a quick pace to that level. If you're accurate, |
| 168 | 00:34:22 --> 00:34:35 | it's going to go to that level nonetheless. So you have to be able to submit to allow yourself to develop that skill set and it won't happen right away. It |
| 169 | 00:34:35 --> 00:34:46 | won't happen. Like overnight, it won't be a week, it won't be 40 days. It's going to be literally a year minimum because every year there are seasonal |
| 170 | 00:34:46 --> 00:34:59 | tendencies that come in and those seasonal tendencies, I trust with over three decades of experience looking at these markets, obsessing over them, I trust |
| 171 | 00:35:00 --> 00:35:09 | seasonal tendencies, I trust these tendencies to repeat certain months of the year. There are times when it does way better than I expect. And there's some |
| 172 | 00:35:09 --> 00:35:18 | times where it doesn't pan out. And when it doesn't pan out, that tells me that I have something that is even stronger going the other direction. So if I get |
| 173 | 00:35:18 --> 00:35:28 | stopped out, and I take a loss, trusting a seasonal tendency, trusting a market structure, market maker buying or selling model, and it reverses on me, and I |
| 174 | 00:35:28 --> 00:35:38 | didn't get out of that or mitigate the underlying risk, or close the trade before I got stopped out, and I incurred a loss. But that move flies against the |
| 175 | 00:35:38 --> 00:35:49 | seas on tenancies on trading, I will flip the script and go exceedingly bullish or bearish, whatever the opposite would be, and trade it the other way. Because |
| 176 | 00:35:49 --> 00:35:59 | if a seasonal tendency is not underway, or panning out, that's the market basically tipping its hand to you saying, Okay, listen, I'm about the railroad, |
| 177 | 00:36:00 --> 00:36:09 | everybody going the other direction. So the first opportunity that I can reverse, I'm going to do that. And early on that when I was on baby pips, and I |
| 178 | 00:36:09 --> 00:36:17 | was doing, you know, recordings of my trades and whatnot. There were several instances of me doing that. And it was like, wow, how did you know turn on what, |
| 179 | 00:36:17 --> 00:36:25 | that's what is explained. But those things are going to be experienced, driven. And there's no shortcuts, I promise you folks, as much as these guys out there |
| 180 | 00:36:25 --> 00:36:33 | want to get the attention and have ad revenue, and people love Him and worship him now. They're never going to be able to condense this down to something |
| 181 | 00:36:33 --> 00:36:40 | simple and short. And I had people yesterday that I muted in my comment section, you can't see the comments I can. But to like, this is a really long video, I |
| 182 | 00:36:40 --> 00:36:46 | wish you would get right to the point. The point is, you're never going to be a trader, that's the point. You can't learn. You don't want to listen to what |
| 183 | 00:36:46 --> 00:36:54 | works, how you make this stuff work in your own hands. You have to have the author explain how you're going to be met with certain things that may be |
| 184 | 00:36:54 --> 00:37:05 | problematic, but this is how you overcome it. Some things are going to only be understood or overcome, because you keep exposing yourself to the experience. |
| 185 | 00:37:05 --> 00:37:14 | And then you glean the experience of having done it enough times. Oh, now I knew this. This looks like the model. I always like to trade. This doesn't have all |
| 186 | 00:37:14 --> 00:37:22 | the signatures I'd like so therefore, I'm not going to take this one. I'll let it pass. That's the things I was talking yesterday I was teaching that. But |
| 187 | 00:37:22 --> 00:37:30 | these Tiktok mentality individuals, I don't have time for them. I don't care about those types of students, because they're not students. They're dabblers. |
| 188 | 00:37:30 --> 00:37:36 | They want somebody come in here and teach them a magic trick. So you can go out there and impress everybody, and you can get rich overnight doing it. It doesn't |
| 189 | 00:37:36 --> 00:38:01 | work like that trading is not like that at all. So if you look at how this relates to pound make sure I'm on the same timeframe. Yes. Alright, so I hope I |
| 190 | 00:38:01 --> 00:38:11 | had this up on the chart when it first started the livestream. I don't know if I will. I mean, obviously, it was on the chart when I when I started streaming, |
| 191 | 00:38:11 --> 00:38:20 | but I hope this was on the screen before it acted as the inverse of your reg Fs app here. But otherwise, it's gonna really seem like lipstick, in hindsight, but |
| 192 | 00:38:20 --> 00:38:31 | I want to teach you reversal patterns, and also look into mentorship content. As a reminder, there's a there's a bunch of roaches out there that are trying to |
| 193 | 00:38:31 --> 00:38:42 | sell mentorship videos and photos are buying them when it's all here for free. I don't know why they're doing that. But hey, you know, it is what it is you want |
| 194 | 00:38:42 --> 00:38:51 | to throw your money at. Thieves, when you can just come right here, warm up the ICT, you pitch a tent and learn how to do this for free. I promise I won't ask |
| 195 | 00:38:51 --> 00:39:03 | for your credit card number. The patterns, reversal patterns, for instance, like the false bull flag and false Bear Flag, okay. They're one of my favorites. |
| 196 | 00:39:03 --> 00:39:15 | Because when I first started, I bought this book called technical analysis of the financial markets by John Murphy. I'm telling you all right now, if you want |
| 197 | 00:39:15 --> 00:39:28 | to learn how to trade in a 90% club, you have to buy John Murphy's book, technical analysis of the financial markets. That book is the retail traders |
| 198 | 00:39:28 --> 00:39:38 | Bible and everything in that if you failed it in instances where I tell you how the market is going to trade, you have a 90% likelihood of winning in that stuff |
| 199 | 00:39:38 --> 00:39:48 | failing. So when I was designing all these things, I wanted to see how I was falling victim to bull flags because when I first started trading, I only wanted |
| 200 | 00:39:48 --> 00:39:54 | to be a buyer because I didn't know how the market would pay me selling something I didn't know and by being a short seller didn't make any sense to me. |
| 201 | 00:39:55 --> 00:40:07 | I was trading with no experience putting money into a market after reading one Raghava book, thinking it was going to be easy 123 tops and bottoms. And you |
| 202 | 00:40:07 --> 00:40:15 | know, I had my ass handed to me. So the first trade I put in, you know, I lost half the money I put in the account, not the account, but the trade. And that |
| 203 | 00:40:15 --> 00:40:24 | was it I had to take a month or two off and regroup in was shocking to me. I mean, I was a lot of money to lose $750 overnight, in an option for orange juice |
| 204 | 00:40:24 --> 00:40:36 | was just, it was our shell shocked. But the time I've spent away from actual trading, I thought to myself, wait a minute, someone took $700 from me. So what |
| 205 | 00:40:36 --> 00:40:46 | did they do that I didn't know. And that was the beginning of my pursuit of trying to figure out what it is that the markets are doing, when it when it |
| 206 | 00:40:46 --> 00:40:55 | does, in fact, move explosively or in a manner that someone else had the opposite, obviously capitalize on that. And one of the patterns I like to trade |
| 207 | 00:40:56 --> 00:41:03 | that then when I was trading commodities, it was a bull flag, I was like, This is so easy, I can see these things. It's just so obvious in the chart. And it |
| 208 | 00:41:03 --> 00:41:11 | was so obvious that once I got to them, they failed. Because I had no understanding of where the market was gonna go. So I'm going to teach you a |
| 209 | 00:41:11 --> 00:41:20 | secret on how to capitalize on fake or false bull flags. And the same thing will be said, for a bear flag, you're just going to reverse everything I'm gonna say |
| 210 | 00:41:20 --> 00:41:30 | here in terms of the logic, okay? But I teach this in the mentorship premium content that's in this YouTube channel. Look at the playlist, you'll see it it's |
| 211 | 00:41:30 --> 00:41:40 | month one mentorship, it's month two, mentorship, month, three all the way through the 12 months. And then I gave you the 12 charter membership models. |
| 212 | 00:41:42 --> 00:41:53 | You have everything that you'll need to ever understand what I'm doing, I'm doing okay. You don't need to buy the books that I'm producing. The things I'm |
| 213 | 00:41:53 --> 00:42:01 | teaching you this week, are the gap fillers. So you don't even need the commentaries. So stop listening to these assholes that are out there on the |
| 214 | 00:42:01 --> 00:42:09 | street corners, okay, selling my stuff. When you don't need to buy it. You're not going to there is no study guide. By the way, either somebody is out there |
| 215 | 00:42:09 --> 00:42:16 | saying you can you give me the study guide. And the PDFs, were just simply the screenshots of the slides that I transitioned through as I was given the |
| 216 | 00:42:16 --> 00:42:25 | lessons. So if you want a PDF, you just simply screenshot every time there's a new slide or neuroinflammation. That's all that was. So they're all lying to |
| 217 | 00:42:25 --> 00:42:32 | you. Okay, I didn't teach a 90 minute cycle. I didn't teach you how my logo unlocks the secrets of the universe. All that's horseshit. Okay, they're all |
| 218 | 00:42:32 --> 00:42:41 | just giving you some reason to buy something that I've already given to you for free, right on his YouTube channel. So stop being a sucker. But I want you to |
| 219 | 00:42:41 --> 00:42:51 | look at how the market created this situation, not here. But as we were outlining, so at the bottom of the daily fair value gap that we outlined |
| 220 | 00:42:51 --> 00:43:06 | yesterday, beforehand. Look at how the pound, which is this chart down here. You see how at that moment when we were trading down here at that candle at 12:30pm? |
| 221 | 00:43:06 --> 00:43:24 | Yesterday, August 29. That's this candle there. Okay. The market rallies up and what's it creating here, if we were just looking at the chart like like that? A |
| 222 | 00:43:24 --> 00:43:34 | 20 year old inner circle trader, a Michael Joseph Huddleston that thinks he knew everything because he was over, he read a book and he had all these testimonies |
| 223 | 00:43:34 --> 00:43:46 | of how you made 250,000 I was trading soybeans and appeared minimum position up to 250 contracts and boom, I made all this money. So yeah, you know, I was |
| 224 | 00:43:46 --> 00:43:55 | thinking I could own the world with bull flags. I would have been buying that right there. Without the information I've provided to you. That right there, I |
| 225 | 00:43:55 --> 00:44:07 | would have been buying that. But that's that pseudo or fake bull flag in the pound is occurring at a time when the dollar index is at its deepest discount. |
| 226 | 00:44:08 --> 00:44:18 | At the low end of the fair value get that I gave you the focus yesterday. Before it was there, before it traded there. It's your it's at 1230 That's when I ended |
| 227 | 00:44:18 --> 00:44:29 | the string. Or maybe minutes before that. The point is, I started talking to you right away with the dollar index. And you knew about these levels. Okay. |
| 228 | 00:44:30 --> 00:44:39 | segwaying into how we use it for forex. When you see a pattern like this, when the dollar is doing something like that, what's going to have more emphasis or |
| 229 | 00:44:39 --> 00:44:57 | strength? Imagine Tobey Maguire armwrestling you know, a powerlifter wouldn't put in anybody you know, or any any small little specimen specimen of a man. |
| 230 | 00:44:58 --> 00:45:10 | Okay, or a child. Arm wrestling some weightlifter? It's no, it's no competition, the dollar is going to break the knees of any bullish retail pattern that you |
| 231 | 00:45:10 --> 00:45:23 | see in a forex pair. So what that means is you can you can fade this bull flag, which is going to be a retail idea. They they think this Oh, it's an uptrend, |
| 232 | 00:45:23 --> 00:45:31 | it's continuing higher. Maybe they're looking at this move here. And it's consolidated and measure move calls for continuation and upside. Not when $1 is |
| 233 | 00:45:31 --> 00:45:43 | telling you this. Not when it's doing that. And then you get the false bull flag that breaks down. But now here's here's what I want to teach you as well. If |
| 234 | 00:45:43 --> 00:45:53 | this is going to be a false bull flag, the flagpole retail minded logic, Let me maximize this because a little too small |
| 235 | 00:46:00 --> 00:46:07 | this bull flag, he comes right back down here and this is where everybody does the five minute trainers of ICT content. That's a buying in their eyes. It's not |
| 236 | 00:46:08 --> 00:46:20 | it's not because it's not going to go higher, because the dollar is going to go higher. And that's going to hold the pound lower. So what you do is you look at |
| 237 | 00:46:20 --> 00:46:30 | looking for any inefficiencies this fair pay gap here that will be a bearish everybody got it? You see them working that level. But more importantly the |
| 238 | 00:46:30 --> 00:46:48 | flagpole that will be used for a bullish bull flag and retail thinking. That's my inversion favor. I'm looking for it to trade to that. Once it breaks. It's |
| 239 | 00:46:48 --> 00:46:55 | going to come right back up into that and then act as what in inversion paradigm you get where everybody else that wants his five minute trainer guys on YouTube |
| 240 | 00:46:56 --> 00:47:06 | or Instagram that think they know my stuff? Oh, yes, inversion fair, but I got some I'm sorry, this is a bullish bias Annabelle sells on efficiency, or they'll |
| 241 | 00:47:06 --> 00:47:16 | call it a liquidity void. It's filled it in now it's gonna go higher knowing no, it's not. Because I gave you the levels of focus on the dollar. Yesterday, I |
| 242 | 00:47:16 --> 00:47:26 | told you that the body is telling you the narrative and the wicks do the damage. The body stayed inside the fair value gap on the dollar index. And it worked its |
| 243 | 00:47:26 --> 00:47:37 | by model I showed you at the beginning of this lecture today, how each one of those components and PDA arrays on the sell side of the curve as the market |
| 244 | 00:47:37 --> 00:47:45 | dropped down on the dollar index, how you use those as footholds and you wait for new PV arrays to form as handholds to climb up that surface of the sell side |
| 245 | 00:47:45 --> 00:47:59 | of the curve to get to the buy side. Well, the opposite is going to be seen in pound, you have a retail bow flag that will fail. When it drops down here, five |
| 246 | 00:47:59 --> 00:48:07 | minute trainer ICT gurus they're gonna tell you to buy that because this has been rebounds, it's not daunting it's doing is creating the inversion fair value |
| 247 | 00:48:07 --> 00:48:15 | get that eventually trades up to here, and then aggressively moves lower was it going to attack, it's going to attack sell side where sell side relative equal |
| 248 | 00:48:15 --> 00:48:29 | lows. When you have relative equal lows, you use the lowest of the low. That's where the liquidity is. If this is for your notes, now, if the lower low has a |
| 249 | 00:48:29 --> 00:48:40 | long wick or tail, use the consequent encouragement and it may not sweep below it. So you would take the majority of your trade off. And like for instance, say |
| 250 | 00:48:40 --> 00:48:50 | this right here, see, I've done this, say this this low right here on that candle had this type of tail. What I would do is I would take like 80% of my |
| 251 | 00:48:50 --> 00:48:59 | trade would come off at just above the consequent Kurtzman that wick. And then I would look to see if the runner that had left on can get below that you're gonna |
| 252 | 00:48:59 --> 00:49:07 | find out many times that sometimes it just will not do it. But if you get outraged at the consequent encroachment, you did it, you get get the lines |
| 253 | 00:49:07 --> 00:49:18 | portion of the move captured. But when it's blunt ended candles like this, and it's the lowest one, it's just simply use the low and now it'd be this there's |
| 254 | 00:49:18 --> 00:49:36 | yourself side room. So from here to here, that's your your morning run based on failed retail logic, based on what I built as a premise yesterday in the dollar |
| 255 | 00:49:36 --> 00:49:45 | index, that daily variation, because it's a higher timeframe level, what do we do we keep those levels in focus, because they're going to have a greater impact |
| 256 | 00:49:45 --> 00:49:55 | and influence over price action on the smaller timeframes. So if you want to find the big ones, the big moves that start and originate in India, they're |
| 257 | 00:49:55 --> 00:50:05 | going to be derived from the monthly the weekly the daily That's where banks are trading off of. Okay, when I say banks, I'm saying that their large positions |
| 258 | 00:50:05 --> 00:50:20 | are being initiated, okay, or built on the levels that are derived from those timeframes, high frequency trading algorithms that are not banks, but they're |
| 259 | 00:50:20 --> 00:50:31 | they're extremely large cannibalistic entities out there to cannibalize banks. They cannibalize large traders, they cannibalize other large trading entities. |
| 260 | 00:50:32 --> 00:50:41 | I'm teaching you how to think like them, and how their high frequency trading algorithms engage and operate in cannibalize. The reason why people don't want |
| 261 | 00:50:41 --> 00:50:49 | to subscribe to what I'm saying is because it sounds conspiratorial, it sounds like it's contrived and made up. But if it was all made up, why is it so |
| 262 | 00:50:49 --> 00:50:57 | perfect? Why is it happened more times than all the other stuff? Why is it provides such as for the individual that's put the time into it? Why is it |
| 263 | 00:50:57 --> 00:51:08 | creates us a clear narrative and understanding of why the markets going to behave a certain way? Because it's uncomfortable, he feels like you're at a |
| 264 | 00:51:08 --> 00:51:19 | disadvantage. And the realization is as well, like, I'm in here with apex predators, sharks, killer whales, you know, things that can devour me. And I |
| 265 | 00:51:19 --> 00:51:25 | thought I was gonna be able to come here and treat like a video game. No, you're not Virginia, what's going to happen is you're going to go on there, and you're |
| 266 | 00:51:25 --> 00:51:34 | gonna have your ass ripped off, you're going to lose an arm and a leg, okay, your face is going to turn off, you're going to be dismembered, because that's |
| 267 | 00:51:34 --> 00:51:46 | what this business is about. It's about eating the weak, eating the small, surviving to eat another day. It's not about the 401k nest egg, I'm gonna have a |
| 268 | 00:51:46 --> 00:51:54 | nice retirement, that's the, that's the selling point. That's the pitch that they give you. Just like the Instagram boys, look at me, I'm getting ready to |
| 269 | 00:51:54 --> 00:52:05 | get a Lamborghini. I've done this. And I've done that. All the stuff that they're doing is from sales, sales of stuff. I've said it openly, I made more |
| 270 | 00:52:05 --> 00:52:18 | millions in selling education than I did from trading. I don't hide that. I've never, I've never heard that. But the things I'm teaching you, they work, they |
| 271 | 00:52:18 --> 00:52:28 | work in my hands, they work in my students hands, and they have proven it over and over and over again. But you can't rush it. You can't rush it, you can't try |
| 272 | 00:52:28 --> 00:52:38 | to shortcut it, believe me, if there was a way you have done it efficiently and effectively, I would have done that. I absolutely would have done that. Because |
| 273 | 00:52:38 --> 00:52:46 | it made my whole time doing this a lot easier. And frankly, much more profitable. I wouldn't have to spend 17 hours a day doing mentorship because I |
| 274 | 00:52:46 --> 00:52:55 | was the brain trust in it. I was the person making the videos and editing and videos and uploading them in different watermarks being put on different user |
| 275 | 00:52:55 --> 00:53:05 | groups, and having to deal with all the drama with students that thought it was gonna be a signal service and didn't listen or read the user agreement. It's not |
| 276 | 00:53:05 --> 00:53:13 | a signal service. Like it was just a lot. That's another reason why I would never ever ever do another paid mentorship, it will never do it. I'll never do |
| 277 | 00:53:13 --> 00:53:22 | it. I don't need to frankly, but I would never do it for the simple fact that it was a bunch of bullshit. Like it was too much work for, for the amount of money |
| 278 | 00:53:22 --> 00:53:31 | gives great money. But I missed a lot of time with my kids on this amount of time with my family. And my health went down like I did not feel well. And I |
| 279 | 00:53:31 --> 00:53:46 | didn't I didn't barely sleep at all. But anyway, I digress. The point is reversal patterns. For your notes. You want to be using a correlated market. In |
| 280 | 00:53:46 --> 00:53:55 | this case, if you're trading Forex, you're gonna be looking at an inverted correlation between the dollar and the forex pair that you're trading. So if |
| 281 | 00:53:55 --> 00:54:06 | you're going to have bullishness in the dollar index, your mindset should be switching to Okay. What do I have in the marketplace for pound that would |
| 282 | 00:54:06 --> 00:54:16 | instigate or promote a short entry? Where would the market trade to if it's gonna go lower? Well, let's go back to that beginning of that bull flag right |
| 283 | 00:54:16 --> 00:54:27 | here. Retail sees that as it's going to go higher sudo ICT guys see this as it's going to go higher because it filled in this and it's an order block right there |
| 284 | 00:54:27 --> 00:54:39 | right? Wrong. Wrong. That is not a bullish order block. Why is that not a bullish order block I just taught you moments ago. Think about for a second. Why |
| 285 | 00:54:39 --> 00:54:42 | is this down close candle not an order block |
| 286 | 00:54:47 --> 00:55:03 | what is it the mitigation block. Let me explain. We have this well After the high the bull flag, I'm going to take this level because it's a little too much |
| 287 | 00:55:03 --> 00:55:04 | information. |
| 288 | 00:55:10 --> 00:55:19 | Okay, so we have that range. So that's you're dealing range. Why is that a dealing range? Lots of dealing range? Am I going to reinvent the definition for |
| 289 | 00:55:19 --> 00:55:35 | it? No. Sell side taken rallies above here by side. So we've done both directions. So you run your low to high equilibrium is right here. If the |
| 290 | 00:55:35 --> 00:55:47 | markets rallied, is that a bullish order block? If we're above equilibrium? Hell no, it's not. Absolutely not. Now, can price come down to it there and have a |
| 291 | 00:55:47 --> 00:56:01 | little reaction? Absolutely. That's the bait. What you're going to want to see is that down close candle, trade through it. Weaker minded individuals that |
| 292 | 00:56:01 --> 00:56:12 | would use that as a catalyst or springboard for higher prices. They're in a net loss when it trades below it, right there. So now in their mind, or thinking, I |
| 293 | 00:56:12 --> 00:56:25 | would really like an opportunity to get out of this losing trade and mitigate that loss. Oh, well, now, if you take that I know it's hard not to smile in it. |
| 294 | 00:56:26 --> 00:56:35 | Man, this is so good. And Spach and free. You're damn right. So here's that down, close candle. Look at the high and look how that performance is right |
| 295 | 00:56:35 --> 00:56:47 | there. it overshoots that Vega? Where's it go? If it's going to color outside, the ones that we're gonna go to mitigation block right there. Sorry, folks, |
| 296 | 00:56:47 --> 00:56:58 | nobody else teaches that. Just me, little ICT. So when the market does these types of things, you have several factors here, remember, I was telling you a PV |
| 297 | 00:56:58 --> 00:57:14 | array in and of itself. One thing is useless. You have to have three things to confirm it. So what do you have here? Mitigation bloc, inversion fair value got |
| 298 | 00:57:15 --> 00:57:25 | the dollar index, creating a reversal scenario. So if the dollar is going to go higher, sorry, the technicians picking that the dollar is gonna go higher, |
| 299 | 00:57:25 --> 00:57:39 | that's going to put a lot of resistance on any advance or moving higher on foreign currency that has the dollar index second in its name, British Pound |
| 300 | 00:57:39 --> 00:57:47 | versus dollar. So if that was going higher, the front named currency in pairs that are coupled to dollar, the dollar being the second in its title, or name, |
| 301 | 00:57:48 --> 00:58:00 | they're likely to bend the knee and go lower, or fail to rally. And then you have situations like this, where the market just really just falls out of it. |
| 302 | 00:58:01 --> 00:58:16 | Now once once you adopt this holistic approach to not just looking at one side of the marketplace, like I was as a 20 year old, I only wanted to focus on being |
| 303 | 00:58:16 --> 00:58:25 | a long holder, I wanted to be a bull, I was a permeable, and it made sense to be a buyer. It didn't make sense for me to try to sell something I didn't happen to |
| 304 | 00:58:25 --> 00:58:33 | be a short seller. So because I was uncomfortable with that, and I was afraid of it. And I was afraid that I would lose money faster, because I would always |
| 305 | 00:58:33 --> 00:58:42 | notice. And I was observant enough to notice that when markets dropped, they dropped faster than they rally. There's a whole lot more speed when the market |
| 306 | 00:58:42 --> 00:58:52 | drops. And back in the 90s when I was trading first. You know, there was a lot of movement that was taking place. And we had some really nice commodity runs |
| 307 | 00:58:52 --> 00:59:01 | that were just phenomenal. And it just scared me as a new trader because I didn't have a whole lot of money. You know, I borrowed 2600 hours on the |
| 308 | 00:59:01 --> 00:59:09 | nation's bank, nation's bank doesn't even exist anymore. But the nation's bank credit card, I literally took $2,600 off a credit card and put it into a |
| 309 | 00:59:09 --> 00:59:20 | brokerage firm called Fox investments back then. And literally took a trade and something I never understood, which was options at the time. Never even learned |
| 310 | 00:59:20 --> 00:59:27 | how to do anything with them. I was like, Well, you know, orange juice should be doing something amazing here. So I'm going to I'm going to buy this option. And |
| 311 | 00:59:27 --> 00:59:39 | the only thing I could risk is the $1,500. I paid for it. Well, in hindsight I was buying an option that was overvalued, had very little time life in it. Its |
| 312 | 00:59:39 --> 00:59:48 | intrinsic value was going to fall off precipitously. And then I had a directional move that went against me overnight. Everything, everything that |
| 313 | 00:59:48 --> 00:59:56 | could have went wrong in that first trade. I was baptized and had my eye is literally on fire. And I couldn't get the broker to answer the phone fast enough |
| 314 | 00:59:56 --> 01:00:05 | to tell him to give me the rest of my money suspended back to me. And I was, I was a mess. Like, I just I couldn't believe that happened. But that's what |
| 315 | 01:00:05 --> 01:00:15 | happens to everyone. Everyone enters it too fast, they think they know how to do it, if they understand it any putting real money to work, and that money works |
| 316 | 01:00:15 --> 01:00:25 | against them, it usually leaves them a fool and his money are soon parted. And that was true with me. And if it's happened to you, you're you're in good |
| 317 | 01:00:25 --> 01:00:33 | company. Because everyone that eventually figures this out, they all have that same story. It's somewhere in their career, they did something like that. And if |
| 318 | 01:00:33 --> 01:00:41 | they've been trading long enough, they've done it more than once. And hopefully, they've learned how to avoid those types of things. And I try to spend my time |
| 319 | 01:00:42 --> 01:00:48 | coaching you, reminding you that you're trying to avoid something that's going to be inevitable, you're going to, you're going to make a mistake, you're going |
| 320 | 01:00:48 --> 01:00:56 | to have a losing trade, you're going to see something in the chart, that you think wholeheartedly is there, but it's really not. And when you do lose, and |
| 321 | 01:00:56 --> 01:01:04 | should be a loss that you can sleep with, that means you're comfortable with having it I lost, I did it wrong. So therefore, I can come back and it doesn't |
| 322 | 01:01:04 --> 01:01:12 | change my approach to using this information. It doesn't make me sour on this where I need to go jump in, start learning something new. Because you're |
| 323 | 01:01:12 --> 01:01:25 | starting all over again. If you leave, whatever, whatever the school of thought is that you're employing, as a trader. When you system hmm, you're literally |
| 324 | 01:01:25 --> 01:01:40 | going back to square one. And you have all new anxiety, performance, anxiety, high expectations, this better do better than the last thing that's unrealistic. |
| 325 | 01:01:41 --> 01:01:50 | So you're already priming yourself to fail. Instead of just saying, You know what, I see this stuff working. It makes sense. I don't understand it fully. But |
| 326 | 01:01:50 --> 01:02:00 | I see other people making money with it, they're proving that they make money with it, not just tape read, not just demonstrate. They're literally making |
| 327 | 01:02:00 --> 01:02:08 | money, spendable money, they're quitting their jobs. They're they're doing this full time. They're buying things that would otherwise be outside the reach of |
| 328 | 01:02:08 --> 01:02:17 | the average working class individual. They're paying cash for their homes, they're paying too much money for cars, you know, and I'm, I'm guilty of that, |
| 329 | 01:02:17 --> 01:02:26 | too. I'm a car car, buff. But if that's your thing, that's your advice, you work for the money you spend it how you want to spend it, but there's enough |
| 330 | 01:02:26 --> 01:02:37 | individuals all around the world now that will cosign and say that this stuff is absolutely what I've said it was, and you have a chance to literally spend time |
| 331 | 01:02:37 --> 01:02:47 | testing it, listening to how it is as the author talking to you. If you do it the way I'm suggesting, it's going to take you some time, yes. But if you went |
| 332 | 01:02:47 --> 01:02:57 | to college, you're gonna go there for four years, not necessarily knowing that when you graduate, you will enjoy doing that career. But I'm gonna tell you |
| 333 | 01:02:57 --> 01:03:10 | something. Do you think you're gonna have any difficulty making $50,000 a month? Like how, how often are you gonna get pissed off? In hate life? Because you made |
| 334 | 01:03:10 --> 01:03:21 | $50,000 in one month? How many times are you going to look and say, You know what, I made $2,500.25 minutes, this is bullshit. Something needs to change |
| 335 | 01:03:21 --> 01:03:34 | around here. That's not gonna happen. That's not gonna happen. But I understand in the beginning, you want over the top, like million dollars in the first six |
| 336 | 01:03:34 --> 01:03:44 | months, three years or whatever, not three years, three months, six months in that short little span of time. And you've elevated the expectation and placed |
| 337 | 01:03:44 --> 01:03:58 | so much difficulty on why you're even doing it. These little failures that are all normal, these little resistance points, the growing pain of learning how to |
| 338 | 01:03:58 --> 01:04:09 | do this, they're going to be perfect excuses for you. So you know what, I really don't have it in me to stick to this. I don't have it in me to be responsible |
| 339 | 01:04:09 --> 01:04:22 | and accountable to myself. So therefore, I'm going to use the easiest exit ramp that comes to my you know, present circumstance. And I'm going to use that as a |
| 340 | 01:04:22 --> 01:04:34 | as it doesn't work. It won't work in full hands. It won't work in a lazy person's hands. It won't work in a five minute trainer student for somebody |
| 341 | 01:04:34 --> 01:04:50 | else. Okay, believe me. talking less, doesn't make you understand it more. Doing it, having an understanding of it and using it precisely that that is |
| 342 | 01:04:50 --> 01:04:59 | understanding. And unless they can do that, they can't teach you because you can't just talk about it. In hindsight, you have to outline it. Like I gave you |
| 343 | 01:04:59 --> 01:05:06 | that Dollar Index, we're gonna get the watch that I told you could drop down here. But where am I? Where am I really pointing to for the week for Monday, |
| 344 | 01:05:06 --> 01:05:10 | Tuesday and Wednesday, I think that they're going to want to draw up into those levels. |
| 345 | 01:05:13 --> 01:05:24 | So it doesn't mean that I'm only going to take a trade in that direction, I guess I mentioned, this is a week where we don't try to trade daily bias, we |
| 346 | 01:05:24 --> 01:05:36 | trade without a bias. So when you have a trade like this, where it runs the low, one relative equal lows, once it does that, you're done. You're not in here |
| 347 | 01:05:36 --> 01:05:49 | trying to trade more. You go in like a cookie cutter shark, you run up on your enemy, bam, slam into them, get a bite and run away. That's it. It's guerrilla |
| 348 | 01:05:49 --> 01:06:01 | warfare. That's what it is. surgical strikes, get in, get your money and go, don't hang around. Don't go back in again. Don't do another trade. Don't look at |
| 349 | 01:06:01 --> 01:06:09 | Oh, I could have been more thorough held on to it. Who cares about all that stuff. You turn the charts off, go do something else. Conditions and market |
| 350 | 01:06:09 --> 01:06:18 | environments where you do not trade with the daily bias, you are trading intraday volatility, you're not in here trying to capture every fluctuation, |
| 351 | 01:06:19 --> 01:06:28 | you're not in here trying to get a a centerfold of execution. So you can go on social media and show show that look at all these moves I did. I'm more |
| 352 | 01:06:28 --> 01:06:36 | impressed with the individuals that go in and make because we're in a really very difficult market environment. And anybody who tells you otherwise, it's |
| 353 | 01:06:36 --> 01:06:46 | full of shit, okay? Because there's so many things that could pop off and change everything instantaneously. And because it didn't happen to the person that's |
| 354 | 01:06:46 --> 01:06:55 | bragging right now, it will happen eventually. And they'll go quiet. They won't talk about anything, they won't do anything, because they're getting their hands |
| 355 | 01:06:55 --> 01:07:05 | handed to them. And then they'll come back when they have something good to talk about. So surgical strikes, guerrilla warfare type trading, when it's intraday |
| 356 | 01:07:05 --> 01:07:15 | without advice. And that's what this says here, you're not trying to get the highest high, you're using the expected turn, based on a stronger dollar at the |
| 357 | 01:07:15 --> 01:07:28 | low of that daily fair value get that you received yesterday. And then you use everything in concert. And if you can apply retail logic as a catalyst to be the |
| 358 | 01:07:28 --> 01:07:39 | opposing view of what it is I teach, you are doing the very thing that John Murphy's book says you should be trying to do as a trader. And if the statistics |
| 359 | 01:07:39 --> 01:07:51 | are true, and I believe they are 90 plus percent of retail traders do what make a lot of money. Talk Now they lose. So when you look at John Murphy's book, |
| 360 | 01:07:51 --> 01:08:03 | that's the Bible. That's the gospel for the 90% Losing crowd. So there are times when that stuff will work. But it's so infrequent. So it's more apt to be what |
| 361 | 01:08:04 --> 01:08:14 | incorrect, unprofitable, and you can couple it with something that is really the marketplace and how the markets book price, you have the highest form of |
| 362 | 01:08:14 --> 01:08:25 | advantage there is. Now Now think about that, in contrast to using a harmonic pattern, you're just looking at Fibonacci ratios. And thinking, Well, you know, |
| 363 | 01:08:25 --> 01:08:36 | this should go up because that's flying. So that means it should go higher. This is a Gartley pattern. Everybody knows the Gartley pattern is harmonic. So the |
| 364 | 01:08:36 --> 01:08:47 | market should behave and respect that Fibonacci level. Oh, shit. You're looking at things myopically one dimensional, the only way a person is going to have a |
| 365 | 01:08:47 --> 01:09:00 | high degree of precision and consistency in trading is they have to compare and contrast a weaker versus the stronger. And that's not an alien concept to you, |
| 366 | 01:09:00 --> 01:09:09 | because when you're trading Forex, that's exactly what you're doing. When you look at this pair here, the pound versus the US dollar, if that dollar is at the |
| 367 | 01:09:09 --> 01:09:18 | low of the fair value gap on this daily chart, it's likely to go higher, more so when you see the body stay inside the low the very I got and then you start |
| 368 | 01:09:18 --> 01:09:31 | seeing it move towards all of its discounted rates that should send price higher. They have all of that in concert with potentially seeing weaker prices |
| 369 | 01:09:31 --> 01:09:41 | in cable, cable cables POUND DOLLAR as its nickname. So if the dollar is gonna go higher, that means it's the stronger and you compare it with what a weaker |
| 370 | 01:09:41 --> 01:09:51 | currency. Well, that's this POUND DOLLAR. Since it's the name of this currency starts with pound, if that was going to go up the first currency and this pairs |
| 371 | 01:09:51 --> 01:10:01 | name is going to drop. And that's what you see here. Now, if this wasn't an environment, that was not what we have For the week that I need to wrap this up |
| 372 | 01:10:01 --> 01:10:12 | into go over to stock indices, Morgan, take a five minute break at 515 to five, I'm sorry, 915 to 920, we'll have a short little break because I do have |
| 373 | 01:10:12 --> 01:10:23 | something to drink. But when we have a environment where we are trading with the daily bias, you would take this entry up in here, go short, and then add to it |
| 374 | 01:10:23 --> 01:10:33 | here with that fear Vega. It breaks down when it trades up into the inversion, fair Vega and mitigation block, you add your final portion there, and then you |
| 375 | 01:10:33 --> 01:10:43 | don't do any more adding, you just ride it out, and you would hold for the day. That is not what we're doing today or this week, because of the economic |
| 376 | 01:10:43 --> 01:10:55 | calendar being what it is it's a landmine field. So your range, okay, as we'll see, when we look at the NASDAQ, it can create higher highs and lower lows and |
| 377 | 01:10:55 --> 01:11:06 | keep smashing both sides. So that's not what I was suggesting was going to be the the specifics of what we should be doing this week. In other words, we were |
| 378 | 01:11:06 --> 01:11:16 | not looking to trade daily bias. We were trying to trade without a bias because of the economic calendar. Now an economic counter isn't fraught with all these |
| 379 | 01:11:16 --> 01:11:24 | high impact news drivers. I mean, we got nine Farm Payroll, usually, what that means is I teach my students that have all your trading done by 11 o'clock in |
| 380 | 01:11:24 --> 01:11:32 | the morning, Wednesday. So the close of the am session on Wednesday, standard protocol for Non Farm Payroll weeks. And what I mean by that when you look at |
| 381 | 01:11:32 --> 01:11:41 | the economic calendar, typically not all the time, but first Friday of every month, the employment data, the Non Farm Payroll news release that's given on |
| 382 | 01:11:41 --> 01:11:54 | the 830 hour Eastern Time, that day, and the day before that Thursday, those are the lowest probability trading days of the month for me now doesn't mean I can't |
| 383 | 01:11:54 --> 01:12:06 | go in and make money or trade them I've done that you've seen that. But I'm more apt to be incorrect. I'm more likely to do it wrong, I might see something. And |
| 384 | 01:12:06 --> 01:12:15 | if I have a real risk behind it, it may fail. And then I will feel bad more. So if I would have just tripped any other day. Because I don't want to trade those |
| 385 | 01:12:15 --> 01:12:26 | days. I know my probabilities are shifted against me. But after 830 on Non Farm Payroll 15 to 30 minutes after that I can trade the rest of the day without with |
| 386 | 01:12:26 --> 01:12:36 | no problem at all. But prior to because no one knows what they're going to do with that nonfarm payroll number. Okay, no one because they're, they're really |
| 387 | 01:12:36 --> 01:12:46 | manipulating the marketplace on that report. Because it's a very important crucial piece of data. And they can control a whole month or a quarter worth of |
| 388 | 01:12:46 --> 01:12:57 | trading market sentiment with that one record. And then they hold on to that number, expecting the next month data to be improvement or expecting it to be |
| 389 | 01:12:57 --> 01:13:05 | weaker in a net creates another shock to the system in the market sentiment that's existing for engineers a new sentiment. So that's the reason why I stay |
| 390 | 01:13:05 --> 01:13:16 | away from that Thursday and ahead of nonfarm payroll Friday. And I've gotten used to just not worrying about those two days. But every other day, every other |
| 391 | 01:13:16 --> 01:13:24 | day is another walk in the park is I'm not I'm not concerned about anything, because I know what I'm looking for. I know what I want to avoid. I've walked |
| 392 | 01:13:24 --> 01:13:35 | the path enough to know where the thorn bushes are, where the snake holes are and all that stuff. So anyway, let's take a break. I'm gonna go and put our |
| 393 | 01:13:35 --> 01:13:45 | chart on deck, NASDAQ will come back after five minutes and we'll continue our carnival like atmosphere |
| 394 | 01:19:26 --> 01:19:41 | Alright folks, welcome back. Got yourself relieved there for a moment. We probably won't have another break. So suck it up buttercup. So we're looking at |
| 395 | 01:19:41 --> 01:19:59 | the NASDAQ This is a 15 minute timeframe. So before we get our open at 930, I'm gonna go through the high timeframes. We don't need this the daily |
| 396 | 01:20:14 --> 01:20:29 | Okay, so as a reminder, as of what I'm interested in, I want to see, either today or by tomorrow, NASA get up into its standard balanced by side of |
| 397 | 01:20:29 --> 01:20:41 | efficiency. If you recall, I wanted to see a trade up to below the lower quadrant, and consequent encroachment, and I'll add those levels again, you can |
| 398 | 01:20:41 --> 01:21:00 | see that they are 18,000, zero 54 and a quarter 18,021 Even, and the lowest 7980 even. Okay, so what I'm saying is I want to see a move that reaches up into |
| 399 | 01:21:00 --> 01:21:17 | there. Okay. Now, what, what happens if it doesn't do that? That's fine. I didn't lose money. That is the number one rule. If you don't get a move, that is |
| 400 | 01:21:17 --> 01:21:27 | set up to go where you think you're gonna go. And it just goes the other direction. You didn't lose any money. If you waste time and mental capital, oh, |
| 401 | 01:21:27 --> 01:21:37 | I wish I would have did it the other way you're losing mental capital, you're losing mental capital, which is much more valuable than the actual money or |
| 402 | 01:21:37 --> 01:21:44 | equity that you have in your account. Because that can be replaced easily, you can get a second job, sell something, whatever. I've done that a lot when I was |
| 403 | 01:21:44 --> 01:21:55 | 20 year old, the mental capital, that's real hard to get that back. Because when you're mentally bankrupt, as a trader, you can have a winning system, you can |
| 404 | 01:21:55 --> 01:22:04 | have, you know, a track record of making money. But when you have spent your mental capital because you've either blown out an account, or accounts and now |
| 405 | 01:22:04 --> 01:22:12 | the flavor is failing a funded account challenge or having a funded account, and then losing it because you go into a tailspin go on tilt, and do everything |
| 406 | 01:22:12 --> 01:22:25 | wrong. You are mentally bankrupt. As a trader at that point, it doesn't mean that your system wouldn't work. If you tried to trade it again. It just you |
| 407 | 01:22:25 --> 01:22:37 | can't muster up the confidence to press the button to execute on it. So it's really important, you're constantly balancing that stuff out as a trader, and |
| 408 | 01:22:37 --> 01:22:51 | those things are real. They're tangible barriers to us succeeding, and I didn't know about it until I endured it. And not not even Mark Douglas doesn't really |
| 409 | 01:22:51 --> 01:23:01 | scratch the surface deep enough, in my opinion, nobody, in my opinion is really made a good enough trade psychology book. And that's why I like listening to |
| 410 | 01:23:01 --> 01:23:11 | other traders that have been trading as long if not longer than me. Because I love how they describe how they deal with adversities, I don't care less. You |
| 411 | 01:23:11 --> 01:23:22 | know how they trade, I'm not interested in learning how to trade from somebody else. I'm interested in how they weathered that stuff. So my emphasis is picking |
| 412 | 01:23:22 --> 01:23:30 | a place where I think the markets gonna draw to, I'm completely comfortable with it being wrong. Because if I'm wrong, I probably will have something that tells |
| 413 | 01:23:30 --> 01:23:40 | me it's going the other direction, because I have a lot of entry methods and techniques to get into a move. But I need to be convinced that my draw is |
| 414 | 01:23:40 --> 01:23:48 | inaccurate. And if it's not accurate, then I have to recalibrate and say okay, well, if it's not going where I think it's going to go, then I need to reassess |
| 415 | 01:23:48 --> 01:23:56 | and see where it's going in the opposite direction. If I can't discern what that is in a very comfortable manner, where then it becomes one sided in that regard. |
| 416 | 01:23:57 --> 01:24:06 | Then I have a low probability condition and I do nothing I sit still I do not flip and go the other direction. That's a very hard thing to articulate or teach |
| 417 | 01:24:06 --> 01:24:16 | someone because it's all experienced driven, which is takes us back to why I teach people to focus on learning how to do one side the marketplace only stay |
| 418 | 01:24:16 --> 01:24:26 | on that side. And if you don't get a set up that fits that criteria in that drawl. Don't trade not even in a demo, because you're going to build bad habits. |
| 419 | 01:24:26 --> 01:24:35 | And bad habits are really really hard to break. In general for humans. If you're a smoker you how many times you try to smoke, quit smoking. you're overweight |
| 420 | 01:24:35 --> 01:24:41 | How many times have you lost you had to lose weight? How many times have you tried to gain muscle young man? And then he's like, Well, you know, my |
| 421 | 01:24:41 --> 01:24:50 | girlfriend said I don't really need to look like that. So it's easy nothing want to do it. Or my legs are hurting. I'm gonna skip leg day, per se. But anyway, |
| 422 | 01:24:51 --> 01:25:03 | the Whoa, I'd like to see a trade up there. We are building a a down close candle here. So It could happen today. Or it could happen tomorrow, it could |
| 423 | 01:25:03 --> 01:25:14 | happen at the FOMC rate announcement, and they send it up in there. Or if I'm wrong, it completely breaks down and trades lower, and goes back down into these |
| 424 | 01:25:14 --> 01:25:22 | two weeks here see that? Whenever you have a range, this is something for your notes. Whenever you have a range that's encapsulated by two opposing wicks, we |
| 425 | 01:25:22 --> 01:25:36 | have this tail here. And we have this wick here, what you want to do is you want to get a measurement of both of those candles. And where their constant |
| 426 | 01:25:36 --> 01:25:47 | encouragement is, you see that they're essentially the same thing. Sometimes they won't be so close in proximity. What you do then is you create both of the |
| 427 | 01:25:47 --> 01:25:55 | CES, the consequent encroachments, they will act as a fair value gap. And they'll trade right down into that. This is not something that occurs a lot. But |
| 428 | 01:25:55 --> 01:26:06 | when it does, if the constant encouragement of both of those wicks, or in this case, it's a wick and a tail. Whenever you have that, treat that as a fair value |
| 429 | 01:26:06 --> 01:26:13 | gap. Many times if your directional bias is correct, and it trades down until when you're bullish, that will be your turning point, it will completely go |
| 430 | 01:26:13 --> 01:26:23 | above everybody else's heads. I've done this in execution videos before. Okay? If you go through all my execution videos, you're gonna see some times where, |
| 431 | 01:26:24 --> 01:26:35 | like, I'm doing something that I've never taught, and one of them is this, okay? Why is it happen? Because wicks are gaps, if you go to the midpoint, the gap, |
| 432 | 01:26:35 --> 01:26:45 | which is what it can do what it's it's consequential that it's encroaching on the mid part of that range, and consequent encouragement. So if you have two |
| 433 | 01:26:45 --> 01:26:55 | different but in close proximity, consequent coachman's that creates what a gap or a fair value where price could tap into it again, because both consequent |
| 434 | 01:26:55 --> 01:27:06 | encroachments levels could be traded too. But we also learned that consequent Grossman may not be treated to in the best instances, they aren't. It's always |
| 435 | 01:27:06 --> 01:27:17 | the upper portion may not be tapped in the middle, but the upper portion when you're bullish, lower portion when you're bearish. So all these things, these |
| 436 | 01:27:17 --> 01:27:26 | rule based ideas, they're just they're just too good for the public. That's why I kept it to myself for such a long time. But things are about to get really |
| 437 | 01:27:26 --> 01:27:42 | hard. And I'm, I'm loosening my grip on all this stuff, because I just feel good about doing it. But that's one other PD right now you have learned. So the low |
| 438 | 01:27:42 --> 01:27:51 | of the fear of agar in this lower quadrant up to here in a member razza. Yesterday, if we can get a closing basis above that, then I would look for it to |
| 439 | 01:27:51 --> 01:28:01 | trade to the full closure of this sellside announced by 10 efficiency. And if you can treat it above that, if it comes back down into this would become a |
| 440 | 01:28:01 --> 01:28:13 | inversion pair Vanguard. But that's all contingent upon if then if then if then if then, whereas right now, I'm just waiting to see if it can set up a scenario |
| 441 | 01:28:13 --> 01:28:23 | to drive up to that point, because that's all I need. For this particular week, I was looking for a setup that's so overwhelmingly obvious that it's so obvious |
| 442 | 01:28:23 --> 01:28:34 | it's it's like a gift. That's the only move I'm trying to capitalize because of the economic calendar. I know if I went in here this week, and tried to trade up |
| 443 | 01:28:34 --> 01:28:43 | down all over the place to do multiple trades, I would have more losing trades than I'm comfortable with having. So that tells me the dial back my frequency of |
| 444 | 01:28:43 --> 01:28:46 | trade tells me the sit still thanks so let's go down to a one minute chart |
| 445 | 01:28:53 --> 01:29:01 | Alright, so we have all this sibian here. Let's take a look at it from the regular trading hours. You can see your opening range gap that's here. We're |
| 446 | 01:29:01 --> 01:29:16 | going to highlight that now. opening price to closing price. So we have a discount opening gap. It's likely to come back up but we don't need it to go all |
| 447 | 01:29:16 --> 01:29:29 | the way back up. The midpoint is usually like that's the strongest likelihood of a return back to a opening range gap. So how do you use that let's get back into |
| 448 | 01:29:29 --> 01:29:30 | electronic trading hours |
| 449 | 01:29:43 --> 01:30:03 | articulate that mid range level. Let's do this with your soul songs and will they get solid? No, let's not do that. Read And then back down into electronic |
| 450 | 01:30:03 --> 01:30:15 | trading out. So there you go, there's there's the midpoint of the opening range gap. So in a morning like this, see how we have just basically just drifting, |
| 451 | 01:30:15 --> 01:30:23 | drifting, drifting grinding back up in there. Now we have an opening range gap that has gapped lower than where we said in the previous session, we have all |
| 452 | 01:30:23 --> 01:30:34 | this city midpoint, the gap is here, we have relative equal highs here, we're opening in a discount, we had high impact news at 830, it's dropped. So retail |
| 453 | 01:30:34 --> 01:30:42 | is going to want to continuously sell short. They're gonna be looking for shorts, they're gonna be looking to get below here it can. And this is why you |
| 454 | 01:30:42 --> 01:30:51 | sit still, it can drop down, take out these relative equal lows, and then come right back up to mid gap or higher if it wants to. But in this instance, this is |
| 455 | 01:30:51 --> 01:31:00 | where I sit still, I don't do anything I observe, I watched. If we didn't have the economic calendar like we have this week, I would be looking for |
| 456 | 01:31:00 --> 01:31:10 | opportunities to maybe get a run just below something like this and not take the lows out, thinking that that would trap traders short, and then reverse and then |
| 457 | 01:31:10 --> 01:31:23 | look for a ride back up into the consequent correction of the opening range gap. But In plain terms, we do nothing, we expect nothing we're observing, we're |
| 458 | 01:31:23 --> 01:31:31 | submitting ourselves to the first 30 minutes. That's the opening range. That is the opening range. And that's the timeframe you when we focus on nothing |
| 459 | 01:31:31 --> 01:31:44 | shorter, it's the first 30 minutes why the first 30 minutes ICT because all of the buy and sell programs that large institutional traders employ there, they're |
| 460 | 01:31:44 --> 01:31:54 | funneling their orders in for the first 30 minutes. They're using all of that liquidity in that rush to buy and sell that they know it's there. It's |
| 461 | 01:31:54 --> 01:32:03 | prevalent. They're forcing they're literally forcing it in in those first 30 minutes. So if you're if you're hearing somebody say the 15 minute opening |
| 462 | 01:32:03 --> 01:32:10 | range, that's horseshit it's 30 minutes in and then in 10 o'clock you start your silver bullet |
| 463 | 01:32:19 --> 01:32:22 | now what I'm gonna do is I'm going to overlay yes |
| 464 | 01:32:27 --> 01:32:29 | I'm gonna compare |
| 465 | 01:32:50 --> 01:33:07 | Okay, so far slightly higher highs, slightly higher highs I see that candle right there nice green expansion there that could create a fair rager because |
| 466 | 01:33:07 --> 01:33:11 | this candles performance as it is right here. If it doesn't run right to the midpoint in the gap |
| 467 | 01:33:30 --> 01:33:37 | we're watching right in here. Usually when it's this for an animated it doesn't usually come back down and give immediate rebounds. Usually it's opening staying |
| 468 | 01:33:37 --> 01:33:45 | inside the candle that created that expansion and then it drops down to create an immediate rebalance. That's usually the signature I like to see for immediate |
| 469 | 01:33:45 --> 01:33:52 | rebalance. Now we have fair value gap there |
| 470 | 01:34:04 --> 01:34:13 | you're watching price. See, does it behave in a manner where it supports this kind of raise or do they break you're trying to observe that because this gives |
| 471 | 01:34:13 --> 01:34:21 | you the Intel going into the 10 o'clock hour for silver bullet aggressive traders you know they could be taking trades on this stuff but I'm suggesting |
| 472 | 01:34:21 --> 01:34:30 | that I wouldn't be doing it because of the economic calendar, the climate the day everything about this is just sit still don't rush |
| 473 | 01:34:42 --> 01:34:50 | I don't remember turn on the microphone. Let me double check this a little Yep. That would have been embarrassing. |
| 474 | 01:34:59 --> 01:35:03 | Sitting Wait, it's to hurry up and wait about training that sucks. |
| 475 | 01:35:10 --> 01:35:20 | So now we have our opening range, we have the midpoint of the gap, which is always a high probability potential draw. Because if it's going to go higher, |
| 476 | 01:35:20 --> 01:35:27 | it's going to meet that level. Initially, if it's going to go lower, many times, it'll go up there then go lower. But if it fails to go up there and starts to |
| 477 | 01:35:27 --> 01:35:36 | break down, what does that tell you, it's telling you that it's very, very weak. And if it's very, very weak, that means we're probably going to see a large |
| 478 | 01:35:36 --> 01:35:48 | range data, the downside. So all those factors that they said they should be in your notes and that's the stuff you're trying to decipher and determine while |
| 479 | 01:35:48 --> 01:35:59 | waiting in the first 30 minutes because you're you're going to give up really ideal entries on certain days that you don't know for certain are going to |
| 480 | 01:35:59 --> 01:36:08 | behave or perform a certain way. So you have to just let that go, there's going to always going to be a better entry that you could have taken and if you spend |
| 481 | 01:36:08 --> 01:36:26 | time you mourning over that it's wasteful use of your time and energy and it builds bad habits builds toxicity so I'm gonna minimize this we're going to come |
| 482 | 01:36:26 --> 01:36:28 | back to that in a second peek at the dollar index. |
| 483 | 01:37:18 --> 01:37:28 | Notice the reaction in the lower quadrant on that opening range Yeah, that's this level here. So we tried to back up into the opening range and then we have |
| 484 | 01:37:28 --> 01:37:38 | displacement of downside so what we'll watch for is do they want to use this as inversion |
| 485 | 01:37:46 --> 01:37:54 | can come up and hit that and roll back over your attention should go here and higher dollar should be as a result. |
| 486 | 01:38:39 --> 01:38:46 | When you don't know what you're doing this is the time where it feels like it's gonna go here it's gonna go there and you feel like you want to chase it doing |
| 487 | 01:38:46 --> 01:38:56 | whatever direction it's it's moving. And the people who have experience are more inclined to sit still and be comfortable sitting still |
| 488 | 01:39:05 --> 01:39:08 | okay, watch the midpoint of this |
| 489 | 01:39:25 --> 01:39:36 | rocketing anything over $1 yet reaching for that mid cap level on NASDAQ with no participation on the dollar at all |
| 490 | 01:40:00 --> 01:40:04 | I'm gonna take this sheet Larry off, we don't need to have it there in the middle of the opening ranges |
| 491 | 01:40:10 --> 01:40:12 | This is that midpoint of that open range gap |
| 492 | 01:40:19 --> 01:40:31 | what I'm looking at and considering is do we hit the midpoint of the opening range gap in that take out the low on dollar then want to see if the DoD wants a |
| 493 | 01:40:31 --> 01:40:44 | rally. If we fail here on the dollar that means we've cleared the buy side here they left this intact and then the sell side would be potentially a |
| 494 | 01:40:44 --> 01:40:46 | consideration for intraday today |
| 495 | 01:41:08 --> 01:41:09 | comes in mid gap |
| 496 | 01:41:58 --> 01:42:08 | would have preferred it come down to that mid level 12 same watch that was able to touch that then I would have expected this to expand up to it didn't get to |
| 497 | 01:42:08 --> 01:42:19 | the level I would have liked to have seen. So if this would have been a trading day I would have missed this run that's probably a good thing |
| 498 | 01:42:51 --> 01:42:53 | if it wants that mid cap it should do it now. |
| 499 | 01:43:11 --> 01:43:16 | Now on the one minute chart down lower left on NASDAQ we have buyside here |
| 500 | 01:43:25 --> 01:43:36 | supply side there and a little bit more liquidity I think would be resting above those and the reason why I say that is because it's the higher portion of this |
| 501 | 01:43:36 --> 01:43:51 | consolidation. So the liquid lead resting up there would be more more of an important biocide for me I'll just make it a little bit different contrast |
| 502 | 01:44:03 --> 01:44:11 | either one of these here, there are potential candidates if they sweep up above either one of them. If we really start to break down they might want to come |
| 503 | 01:44:11 --> 01:44:22 | back up or come back down rather to clean up this. This is too little to smooth for my liking. We're inside of 30 minute Vega |
| 504 | 01:44:36 --> 01:44:44 | nothing here today I would have traded on yet and still be sitting and waiting to see what we're getting built up for 10 o'clock. |
| 505 | 01:44:58 --> 01:45:11 | Notice how we took that midpoint out on the opening range gap on this deck but we did not take out that low on dollar now we're saying go reduce the DVR |
| 506 | 01:45:11 --> 01:45:22 | settings you can rewind back to what I was saying it if not just put this time on your notes you can come back and listen to where I mentioned it and watching |
| 507 | 01:45:22 --> 01:45:35 | it to see if we get up to that midpoint gap other hearings cat rather on this deck if we take out that low $1 We didn't so that to me implies that this is a |
| 508 | 01:45:35 --> 01:45:43 | suspect rally we just went to mid gap and we might just come back down and take out the sell side here and then see dollar rally. |
| 509 | 01:47:19 --> 01:47:24 | Rate where it's at right now you can go either direction so that's the definition of low probability. |
| 510 | 01:48:45 --> 01:48:47 | That was a little too limp in here |
| 511 | 01:49:11 --> 01:49:18 | about nine minutes opening range will be done when we enter silver bullet 10 to 11 |
| 512 | 01:50:25 --> 01:50:36 | both the buy side at 896 on this that in the sell side of 824 both are just really ripe for the picking and making literally here's that midpoint of that |
| 513 | 01:50:36 --> 01:50:36 | gap |
| 514 | 01:51:07 --> 01:51:19 | so looking at this high down for that love we continuously rally, there's no inefficiencies until we get to here. And that's inside of this as well. So is it |
| 515 | 01:51:19 --> 01:51:28 | more likely to get to that level as a premium, or come all the way back down and disrupt everybody from the beginning of the day at 930 or they went straight |
| 516 | 01:51:28 --> 01:51:38 | long they left this area here. To me, it seems like they're trying to sell the idea that that support and that's going to be the largest pool of initial |
| 517 | 01:51:38 --> 01:51:50 | liquidity. So in my opinion, I'd like to see that sweat and then run for 896 910 Nasdaq but I have nothing to tee off on yet. |
| 518 | 01:53:04 --> 01:53:14 | How we treated to it the mid gap hidden it there just like it did on that candle, I would have preferred it and done that on this one then that would have |
| 519 | 01:53:14 --> 01:53:29 | been much more trustworthy to see it run for 896 Maybe expanded 910 Doing this way in such a close proximity to the like this, these are the initial lows of |
| 520 | 01:53:29 --> 01:53:41 | the day. So at 930 we opened here and then didn't go lower there didn't go lower there. So this is like I feel strongly that this is going to get engaged but I |
| 521 | 01:53:41 --> 01:53:56 | don't have an entry to get into it yet. And I'd prefer it gets wet first and then open the doors for eight 968 grand but if we run 896 any short term break |
| 522 | 01:53:56 --> 01:54:06 | and structure lower that would be the catalyst for run down the slide between 824 and 20 Nasdaq |
| 523 | 01:54:21 --> 01:54:27 | seems like it's not in a hurry to go anywhere right now. That's an environment I don't want to trade in |
| 524 | 01:54:33 --> 01:54:44 | that means they're reserving a great deal of pain later in assessing someone's gonna get their 114 to them |
| 525 | 01:54:56 --> 01:54:57 | want to go higher in this duel here? |
| 526 | 01:55:15 --> 01:55:20 | See that dollar upper left hand corner did not take out that well? |
| 527 | 01:57:22 --> 01:57:33 | don't have the folks that I usually look at I don't know what their chat rooms are saying. So I don't have a sentiment reading right now. And the reason why |
| 528 | 01:57:33 --> 01:57:44 | I'm not doing because I'm I'm not very proficient with using live stream stuff so I would be concerned or nervous that I would flash their livestream and |
| 529 | 01:57:44 --> 01:57:54 | embarrass them and I'm trying not to do those types of things so we're just gonna read price |
| 530 | 01:58:03 --> 01:58:18 | if you look at the gap that I'm highlighting here is a small one right there. So we traded up the two both of them midpoint and then that small little one there. |
| 531 | 01:58:20 --> 01:58:33 | So if dollar continues to go higher, I would expect to see but displacement lower when NASDAQ and that would set the stage for a run below 824 I'm not |
| 532 | 01:58:33 --> 01:58:45 | trading it I'm not pushing any buttons I'm literally just explaining what I'm looking at why no setup as far as I'm concerned yet |
| 533 | 01:58:53 --> 01:58:59 | trading above it acting as support would set for 896 910 three quarters. |
| 534 | 01:59:34 --> 01:59:38 | Who's made money so far since the opening bell Long's or shorts |
| 535 | 01:59:45 --> 01:59:54 | long holders are in the money right now. The left those smooth relative equals at 824 |
| 536 | 02:00:00 --> 02:00:19 | The sweep of EDA is likely and how we trade there is crucial to what we do for atomic clocks overbought. |
| 537 | 02:00:30 --> 02:00:45 | Five minutes short on NASDAQ lower left hand corner is trash there's really nothing to get too excited about woman isn't more inspiring |
| 538 | 02:00:58 --> 02:00:59 | 96 |
| 539 | 02:01:13 --> 02:01:22 | That's classic on a week like this they get right to the level and pull it back on so I gotta be real careful |
| 540 | 02:01:32 --> 02:01:45 | we swept ABA level ones are long in the tooth right now that means they're feeling good but this is what they don't want to see they don't want to see any |
| 541 | 02:01:45 --> 02:01:59 | kind of sharp turns lower frankly I do I want to see that the the fact that we didn't go above that high That to me is interesting |
| 542 | 02:02:06 --> 02:02:08 | this this looks way too right |
| 543 | 02:02:15 --> 02:02:30 | let's look even s&p Divergence see is that higher on the second one no |
| 544 | 02:02:38 --> 02:02:50 | no if we can get up to this range again here and kiss that low that shaded area with dollar rally that would be brilliant. |
| 545 | 02:03:03 --> 02:03:18 | Immediate rebalance among 63 quarters I need to rebalance. |
| 546 | 02:03:30 --> 02:03:30 | dollars to sleep |
| 547 | 02:04:00 --> 02:04:02 | okay s&p trash |
| 548 | 02:05:00 --> 02:05:23 | I definitely would not be in s&p, that's for sure. SP doesn't have anything that I'm interested in dollar giveaway that daily fair value gets high in the upper |
| 549 | 02:05:23 --> 02:05:39 | quadrant of that imbalance so this level here to about there that would need to be support for dollar otherwise if it breaks below that we'll probably going to |
| 550 | 02:05:39 --> 02:05:50 | see give up the ghost and run for itself so NASDAQ has cleared relative equal lows rejected that now we're inside of this this could potentially be reclaimed. |
| 551 | 02:05:52 --> 02:06:06 | Bear Vega that's not inversion in other colors orange reclaimed order block reclaimed fair value got is when the initial expectation is used at a later |
| 552 | 02:06:06 --> 02:06:33 | time. Inversion fair Vega, or mitigation block is when they reversed their role. Preferred that touch the midpoint again. 896 is in play. They have no more stops |
| 553 | 02:06:33 --> 02:06:48 | sitting read about that. So far, I don't feel I've missed anything. I'm not antsy, you're not anxious. I feel like there's nothing here so far. Okay, |
| 554 | 02:06:48 --> 02:06:54 | there's a touch the midpoint of the gap on NASDAQ. No, can you find legs to reach for the 896? |
| 555 | 02:07:52 --> 02:08:04 | Given the the economic calendar and where we're at technically in the market for NASDAQ. The levels I have on my chart. They're the ones that are selling it to |
| 556 | 02:08:04 --> 02:08:15 | me, that's what I'm interested in at the moment. One or the other, being traded to like if it goes here, I want to see it again expand here. If it goes here and |
| 557 | 02:08:15 --> 02:08:22 | goes above it and breaks down then I'm I'm looking for a run there. If it were to drop down below these lows here, then I would look for the run back at a |
| 558 | 02:08:22 --> 02:08:39 | later time to take out the the 896. So we're not in anything that I'd be interested in. All this is still just waiting. And I know it's it's frustrating |
| 559 | 02:08:39 --> 02:08:44 | because you want to I want to be able to know what he's going to do right now and do something and every little fluctuation feels like it's the beginning of |
| 560 | 02:08:44 --> 02:08:55 | something big. And you can't think that way right now. There's so many a tomorrow we have fit. So all the big moves are reserved for tomorrow, and |
| 561 | 02:08:55 --> 02:09:08 | nonfarm pay payroll. So you have to kind of like remind yourself to just anticipate the moves to be stunted, held back a little bit, only going to take |
| 562 | 02:09:08 --> 02:09:16 | out stops, and then back to the middle range. Take out start going back to the millet range. So that's that's the like the playbook in my mind. That's what I'm |
| 563 | 02:09:16 --> 02:09:26 | watching for price. And since we're between the parameters that would constitute an interest in me making a decision going higher or lower. Neither of the levels |
| 564 | 02:09:26 --> 02:09:33 | I've outlined here have been engaged yet. And because we're in the middle of the range, we're in no man's land because he can literally go either direction right |
| 565 | 02:09:33 --> 02:09:42 | now. And if it can do that, that's a gamble. I'm not trying to gamble. You're welcome to do what you want to do, but I'm not out here trying to just guess. |
| 566 | 02:09:45 --> 02:09:48 | Sitting here just shuffling cards and waiting |
| 567 | 02:11:01 --> 02:11:02 | looks heavy on NASDAQ |
| 568 | 02:11:16 --> 02:11:18 | so let's take a look at some time |
| 569 | 02:11:24 --> 02:11:35 | we've had the initial height here taken out at 944 with that run we broke low relatively close rallied up failed to take out the high didn't even get to |
| 570 | 02:11:35 --> 02:11:53 | consequent course on that wick Vega here it's displacing your I should be right there on a 32nd chart see let's drop down to the 15 second show you some. |
| 571 | 02:12:41 --> 02:12:52 | Dollar Index versus taking a net s&p If you look at it down here it's now taking itself side it's got real smooth edges |
| 572 | 02:12:59 --> 02:13:14 | so we want to see if this can be traded above if it's treated as support that might be the catalyst for drawing the s&p higher up clear up its relative equal |
| 573 | 02:13:14 --> 02:13:15 | highs. |
| 574 | 02:14:04 --> 02:14:05 | Remember |
| 575 | 02:14:13 --> 02:14:25 | that have this portion of the gap the opening range gap that's unfilled So between this high here and there that's the range you can trade up into |
| 576 | 02:14:39 --> 02:14:39 | this |
| 577 | 02:14:47 --> 02:15:00 | is the remaining portion that's unfilled apologies if you can't hear me while I vent I'm underneath is literally like a freezer. Blast me I'm not complaining |
| 578 | 02:15:00 --> 02:15:04 | but if it's distracting to you, I apologize for that |
| 579 | 02:15:23 --> 02:15:27 | so there's been fluctuations but none of this is of any interest to me |
| 580 | 02:15:41 --> 02:15:45 | marching the bodies in here, see this thing inside this gap? |
| 581 | 02:16:20 --> 02:16:34 | Because this by side that I liked an annotated earlier that or the sell side down here, one of the two, I could care less really which one I would have |
| 582 | 02:16:34 --> 02:16:45 | preferred, that able to came down initially and took those relatively close out then I would be just bullish right now, but have been bullish remaining. But |
| 583 | 02:16:45 --> 02:16:57 | neither of the levels or the liquidity that I want to see tagged, has been tapped yet. So we're in between those two things. So in my opinion, while it can |
| 584 | 02:16:57 --> 02:17:08 | be viewed either direction, I see that we're in an area or a range where it's like a boat without a rudder. And it's just going to just drifting Coast |
| 585 | 02:17:08 --> 02:17:20 | wherever the tide takes it. And if you trade in those environments, you're literally just gambling the s&p because it has really smooth highs like this and |
| 586 | 02:17:20 --> 02:17:32 | we're real close to it. I think we're gonna see that get breached. So we would have to anticipate some kind of sympathy move for 896 to be considered. |
| 587 | 02:17:56 --> 02:18:07 | This shaded area up here I'm going to change it to color that is the opening range remaining portion of the gap has not been closed |
| 588 | 02:18:20 --> 02:18:32 | sorry, that's one of those things that would have been edited out in the pre recorded Don't yawn is either contagious. |
| 589 | 02:18:38 --> 02:18:44 | All right, so Dollar Index has tapped its daily value get high. |
| 590 | 02:19:03 --> 02:19:20 | How you are able or unable to manage your patience or lack thereof in between setups, is going to be instrumental in terms of how fast you find success and |
| 591 | 02:19:20 --> 02:19:30 | how long remain consistent in that success. Just because there's fluctuations on the chart doesn't mean there's a reason for you to be in there. Not with a |
| 592 | 02:19:30 --> 02:19:33 | proper high probability condition behind you. |
| 593 | 02:19:38 --> 02:19:54 | Now I like to ask myself, you rhetorical questions like if I was long from the opening, would I feel confident right now? If I was short, from the IE nines |
| 594 | 02:19:56 --> 02:20:09 | would I feel confident right now? both instances, I wouldn't be overzealous about the position, I would be holding either in either side. So that also helps |
| 595 | 02:20:09 --> 02:20:19 | me frame the probabilities of a directional move higher or lower. And because I can't, I can't come to any conclusion yet, based on that, I don't know if 896 or |
| 596 | 02:20:19 --> 02:20:30 | 824 is going to be hit first. And without having that insight, we're in the middle. And it's a 5050. It's literally a gamble. And I'm not, I'm not trying to |
| 597 | 02:20:30 --> 02:20:40 | teach that I don't trade that way. I don't look for moves like that. It has to have a 10 tip to me, and I feel confident that it's one sided. That's not trend |
| 598 | 02:20:40 --> 02:20:47 | trading, by the way, it's just that the market is predisposed to go to one side of the market, discount or premium. |
| 599 | 02:20:54 --> 02:21:04 | It would need to run higher here if I was long. Like, if I was bullish from the opening, I would want to see it be using this fair value get word just tap into |
| 600 | 02:21:04 --> 02:21:13 | like it would need the moments started to hear but it can quickly just fizzle out. But I would want to see it really rip and take out this hot here. And until |
| 601 | 02:21:13 --> 02:21:20 | it does that I would be apprehensive and somewhat anxious about it still potentially coming back down to that cell site. |
| 602 | 02:21:33 --> 02:21:41 | And while you're learning and you're not demonstrating yet, and you shouldn't be in a rush to demo anyway, because you have to know what you're doing and what |
| 603 | 02:21:41 --> 02:21:51 | you're looking for. Otherwise you're you're building bad habits and you're trying to learn how to impose your will in the marketplace which never works out |
| 604 | 02:21:51 --> 02:22:04 | well. But the exercise I was explaining to you is from the opening bell ask yourself who's making money who's profitable right now who has a hold on the |
| 605 | 02:22:04 --> 02:22:18 | profit for the day? Right now we still have a little bit of an edge on the long holders so they have some somewhat of a position that's modestly profitable. |
| 606 | 02:22:20 --> 02:22:26 | That can change or they could deliver to 896 and if they were smart they would peel off there |
| 607 | 02:22:31 --> 02:22:39 | but I personally wouldn't be comfortable where we're at because we didn't get that run like I wanted to see off that fear vague out there and we got a |
| 608 | 02:22:39 --> 02:22:49 | reaction off of it. Yes, but we're just having a hard time with the bodies to get through this gap. See how the bodies are respecting that gap still to me |
| 609 | 02:22:49 --> 02:23:04 | that that's something that I would not like to see in a long holding position for a run that opened at 930 So look at the price action right here really what |
| 610 | 02:23:04 --> 02:23:12 | did you miss nothing it's a lot of up and down give and take and it's not really done much at all |
| 611 | 02:23:18 --> 02:23:24 | but ICT added to our handles right here I'm killing it well done you're better game within lamb |
| 612 | 02:23:44 --> 02:23:50 | mean SAP is poisoned LOOK at that would not be touching it on |
| 613 | 02:24:23 --> 02:24:38 | so how about all that the drama at the colleges another reason why colleges are a scam. People paid money to go there. And that's what's going on. Unbelievable. |
| 614 | 02:24:46 --> 02:24:59 | It's gonna be a wonderful summer. Hope you're ready for it cuz it's gonna have a whole lot of stuff. It's gonna have a cup, a potpourri a whole, whole bunch of |
| 615 | 02:24:59 --> 02:25:14 | mixed events going on none of that good alright, so we have really clean lows here so there's a nice pour liquidity there and if we drop down it could |
| 616 | 02:25:14 --> 02:25:26 | accelerate to reach for that 820 For the volume of bounce in here we just traded two so we want to see does it have the ability to fall out of bed here it's |
| 617 | 02:25:26 --> 02:25:35 | tried multiple times reaching reaching reaching all of them all of this action on the upside in the premium level has been jagged. And everything on the sell |
| 618 | 02:25:35 --> 02:25:48 | side has been relatively smooth that means we have these lows here they can they they're seeing that as support and you know what rest below support for retail |
| 619 | 02:25:48 --> 02:26:03 | traders that's where their stop losses and same thing can be said over here so we'll watch and see if we do in fact get this to rollover and attack that 642 |
| 620 | 02:26:03 --> 02:26:05 | and 824 |
| 621 | 02:26:12 --> 02:26:13 | That's probably random |
| 622 | 02:26:39 --> 02:26:57 | that's about 20 handle run from volume and balance to sweeping these these lows here and what you would want to see is heavy drawn out large candles now because |
| 623 | 02:26:57 --> 02:27:05 | they don't want to see these individuals removed their stock losses below these lows. So that would indicate that you would want to see and expect anticipate |
| 624 | 02:27:05 --> 02:27:15 | rather large ranges reaching down there that would be the ideal scenario for the price to reach for it not just drift down here |
| 625 | 02:27:36 --> 02:27:38 | my son's building something down here |
| 626 | 02:27:44 --> 02:27:50 | can you guys hear the birds? I'm asking that rhetorically because I don't know how you're gonna respond. I guess you can leave in the comments but can you hear |
| 627 | 02:27:50 --> 02:28:06 | the birds chirping? We have birds literally laying nests over top of our windowsills which is fine. I have no problem with peaceful sailing. What's the |
| 628 | 02:28:06 --> 02:28:07 | bottom of this |
| 629 | 02:28:13 --> 02:28:14 | throw them into here |
| 630 | 02:28:33 --> 02:28:34 | the Jostein |
| 631 | 02:28:49 --> 02:28:57 | yay. I've been waiting for an opportunity to use I found that over the weekend. I don't know if it's used for anything specific but I thought it was kind of |
| 632 | 02:28:57 --> 02:29:08 | cute. My wife was like why don't you use it all the time? Because I'm fucking ICT I don't do that kind of shit. Crazy. But I felt like I had to do it so that |
| 633 | 02:29:08 --> 02:29:25 | we can show my wife. See I did that for you, honey. Anyway, waiting. Waiting for the market to show its hand like tipping its hand to you was the inability to |
| 634 | 02:29:25 --> 02:29:38 | get the bodies through this area in here. And then once it broke lower, we had that volume and bounce and mentioned rate there. Okay. And that's gonna show you |
| 635 | 02:29:38 --> 02:29:49 | this. This is what you do. When you watch the tape and you're recording your observations in annotations, like your your your writing on the chart. I guess |
| 636 | 02:29:49 --> 02:30:01 | you can use Market Replay if you don't have the ability to see it live. But I can't. I can't encourage you more than I'm going to do now. Now, by saying, |
| 637 | 02:30:03 --> 02:30:14 | having a recording of it live, and watching every individual candlestick form and paint, there's really nothing like that. Because you're going to be able to |
| 638 | 02:30:14 --> 02:30:25 | see what it's like when it goes up and down in the same candlestick. But this volume imbalance from this high down there. Now remember, this is a 15 second |
| 639 | 02:30:25 --> 02:30:39 | candlestick chart. So every one of these candlesticks represents a 15 second interval, which is extremely fast. So if we look at that range, from here, here, |
| 640 | 02:30:40 --> 02:30:49 | we're equilibrium above it is what premium, there's your volume balance, it trades up into it, and into that small little fair value gap right there between |
| 641 | 02:30:49 --> 02:31:08 | this. And this, to trade into that breaks lower comes up into mean threshold of this candlesticks body and here is a bearish order block. It trades lower breaks |
| 642 | 02:31:08 --> 02:31:17 | below the two consecutive close candles, which is the full bearish order block, the change in the state of delivery is the opening price. It trades up into it |
| 643 | 02:31:17 --> 02:31:28 | once twice, accelerates, after going into that volume of balance, you need to go back and listen to the recording, you want to see it trade lower, it goes lower, |
| 644 | 02:31:28 --> 02:31:36 | and you want to see it remain heavy. And then you want to see large, heavy bold candles rushed down there, because they don't want to take they don't want let |
| 645 | 02:31:36 --> 02:31:46 | the opportunity for the traders that have cell stops resting below that initial low or relatively equal lows over here. They don't want them to be able to pull |
| 646 | 02:31:46 --> 02:31:54 | that. So they'll move real quick to get it. So that's how you can time and that's why you hear me or see me rather many times type out in my trade |
| 647 | 02:31:54 --> 02:32:05 | examples. And I'm trading live. I'm typing out I want to see range expansion, I want to see large candles. Heaviness is when the markets likely to drop. Okay. |
| 648 | 02:32:08 --> 02:32:19 | All these things, watching price in better environments is much more rewarding for the sake of saying Wow, look how fast and suddenly it runs. And it's Israel |
| 649 | 02:32:19 --> 02:32:27 | easy to see, I picked this week to do this workshop, because I want you to see how in difficult market conditions, this stuff still works. But you have to |
| 650 | 02:32:27 --> 02:32:40 | wait. But you have to wait a lot more than you would if it was in another more conducive climate for precision trading. There's a lot of like, a lot more |
| 651 | 02:32:40 --> 02:32:51 | coloring outside the lines in these types of environments, which you know, it, it's still possible. Like it's still possible to trade in these environments. |
| 652 | 02:32:52 --> 02:33:02 | But my advice to you is don't try to trade in these environments, and learn in them. Because the lessons you get from the harder conditions like we're in right |
| 653 | 02:33:02 --> 02:33:13 | now. They will pay in dividends your entire career. Because the things that you see that's been shown in these types of market environments, the heavy |
| 654 | 02:33:13 --> 02:33:25 | manipulation, the long drawn out process before the moves go to a particular level. And when it's between two parameters that would instigate a trade idea |
| 655 | 02:33:25 --> 02:33:35 | when something transitions to an obvious, okay, now it's it's having a difficulty to reach up. And then as I was describing that everything for the |
| 656 | 02:33:35 --> 02:33:52 | session on this particular morning has been jagged. As he has been up, up, up, up, up, up and what was remaining smooth. Below here, these two lows and below |
| 657 | 02:33:52 --> 02:34:03 | these lows here. So what does that mean? Well, look at the real time commentary I gave you I literally pointed out the fact that everything was jagged. And then |
| 658 | 02:34:03 --> 02:34:15 | we were having difficulty getting back through this inefficiency. So it's, it's like a barrier and it's saying okay, I've I've showed you my hand and what I |
| 659 | 02:34:15 --> 02:34:18 | mean by that if you look at how this bar of this |
| 660 | 02:34:26 --> 02:34:27 | if you look at all this price action |
| 661 | 02:34:33 --> 02:34:45 | Okay, and once we took out this high this initial high, every time that it went up there what was happening was smart money was encouraging lungs, and they were |
| 662 | 02:34:45 --> 02:34:59 | selling to those lungs. Every time a new high was pierced, smart Millie, sorry, Smart Money was adding new short positions. Selling here, here, here, here, here |
| 663 | 02:34:59 --> 02:35:08 | and then In here, that's when I was telling you, okay, I can see it now, when it's between two parameters, that would be the reasons for me to take a trade |
| 664 | 02:35:08 --> 02:35:17 | initially, like I would have rather seen 896 swept when it got here, then it would have been an obvious at that moment, I'm going to aim there. At the |
| 665 | 02:35:17 --> 02:35:26 | beginning of the day, I want to see that swept and then reach for 896. So you have a plan, you have something that you're going to work with initially. But |
| 666 | 02:35:26 --> 02:35:35 | that can evolve when more information is provided to you. And that's simply just waiting, waiting for more information, you got to get at least past that first |
| 667 | 02:35:35 --> 02:35:46 | 30 minutes. Because all the order flow that comes in for the day, initially, all that is heavily dumped right on the opening, because there's such a rush of |
| 668 | 02:35:46 --> 02:35:55 | buyers and sellers coming in, they will use those buyers and sellers to keep pushing price, they're going to keep offering higher prices, the buying is not |
| 669 | 02:35:55 --> 02:36:02 | sending it up there. They keep offering a higher, higher, higher higher and someone's going to be buying in there, someone's going to be selling it there, |
| 670 | 02:36:02 --> 02:36:12 | there's always going to be some pairing of orders because they keep sending the high of the price up, they keep offering higher prices. And all you have to do |
| 671 | 02:36:12 --> 02:36:22 | is look at a look at a commodity price chart. Okay, look at a commodity price chart and put volume over top of it real volume. Price will be rallying the |
| 672 | 02:36:22 --> 02:36:34 | whole time the volume is dropping down. Well, the volume is proceeding price. Volume will precede price. It's telling you that there's there's not more |
| 673 | 02:36:34 --> 02:36:46 | contracts that were traded here, there isn't more contracts up here being traded, it's usually less. So volume would decline. When there's heavy |
| 674 | 02:36:46 --> 02:36:54 | distribution. And in your mind, you're thinking there should be there should be more volume, because if they're really selling out, they should be selling with |
| 675 | 02:36:54 --> 02:37:04 | big volume. And it's not always the case, what I like to look for is instances where the market is showing and tipping its hand in a manner where everything |
| 676 | 02:37:04 --> 02:37:16 | keeps pushing up higher. Okay. And I sat and I waited in front of you all I want to see does it want to take 896? If it takes 896, the first fair value gap would |
| 677 | 02:37:16 --> 02:37:24 | have been this one in here, I would have mentioned that and said okay, we want to see it now far from there. But because it did not take 896. And that was the |
| 678 | 02:37:24 --> 02:37:35 | level I wanted to see. I had to sit still and say okay, we're in between no man's land, like, I want to see it trade here. Or here. Which one does first, I |
| 679 | 02:37:35 --> 02:37:44 | could care less. I prefer the sell side first then run up there. But I have to sit and wait. But over time, how much time |
| 680 | 02:37:50 --> 02:38:03 | there's 10 o'clock. So the majority of the volume that gets pumped in all the transactions that are waiting to be thrown into the marketplace at the open, |
| 681 | 02:38:03 --> 02:38:12 | because there's a lot of action, that first 30 minutes, there is no significance to the first 15 minutes. Trust me, I'm telling you the truth, there's no reason |
| 682 | 02:38:12 --> 02:38:23 | to worry about that first 15 minutes, that's a spin. It's the 30 minutes. Okay, the first 30 minutes that is opening range, algorithmically, institutional |
| 683 | 02:38:23 --> 02:38:30 | trading everything, they're funneling everything in in that first 30 minutes. That doesn't mean there's nothing traded after that, it just means they're |
| 684 | 02:38:30 --> 02:38:40 | trying to force it in there. Because they have real business need. They're, they're under the gun in terms of they have to portfolio dress, quarterly shifts |
| 685 | 02:38:40 --> 02:38:46 | of assets, they gotta move things around, because they got to keep their investors thinking they're constantly doing work for them as their fiduciary. So |
| 686 | 02:38:47 --> 02:38:59 | all these things are reasons and catalysts, why that first 30 minutes is important. Sometimes you can find setups within that first 30 minutes. But I am |
| 687 | 02:38:59 --> 02:39:08 | never forcing that on myself that I have to find the entry in the first 30 minutes. I'm willing to wait for that first 30 minutes to be done. And you can |
| 688 | 02:39:08 --> 02:39:20 | see just shortly after that first 30 minutes, we get that last little pump above this high in it failed to take the high that I wanted to see taken. Now if I |
| 689 | 02:39:20 --> 02:39:30 | have a level that I think is a premium array where it should trade to it. But if it fails, if it can't reach there, what did I teach you about that? If there's a |
| 690 | 02:39:30 --> 02:39:40 | premium array, okay, and it can't get there. Or if it's a gap and it can't even get to the halfway point of it and it starts to drop. What is that telling you? |
| 691 | 02:39:41 --> 02:39:52 | What what does it signify what signature is it revealing to you? And what how is it useful? It means that it couldn't even get there. So if it can't get there, |
| 692 | 02:39:52 --> 02:40:03 | then that means it's underlying the weak. So a weak market will do what it will stagnate or Drop, well, then you got to look at what the condition the |
| 693 | 02:40:03 --> 02:40:15 | marketplace was doing. It was making jagged runs higher rate from the opening, after leaving relative equal lows, kept pressing higher, higher, we couldn't |
| 694 | 02:40:15 --> 02:40:22 | even get the PD right here. And then we broke, we have a shift in market structure there. I'm not going to trust it yet, because it's still could run up |
| 695 | 02:40:22 --> 02:40:31 | here one more time. But then when we start seeing this low, take out that one, we have two things now qualifying that this market is predisposed to go lower. |
| 696 | 02:40:31 --> 02:40:44 | But I have to wait for confirmation algorithmically. It has to tell me something algorithmically. That is not going to do something. And if you listen to the |
| 697 | 02:40:44 --> 02:40:57 | commentary I was giving you what I was saying was that that gap right in here, we're likely to see an inability to trade that by side because it had no ability |
| 698 | 02:40:57 --> 02:41:02 | to have the bodies close or move outside of that when it was trading up into it here. When you take this part off, you're sorry. |
| 699 | 02:41:08 --> 02:41:18 | See other bodies, respecting it in here. And then come one more time there and broke. So I said, Okay, well, you know, it's looking heavy. And I showed you |
| 700 | 02:41:21 --> 02:41:31 | reasons and suggestions that we would see it tried to expand quickly, we want to see large ranges, want to see large ranges after that volume of bounce, formed |
| 701 | 02:41:31 --> 02:41:43 | and trade off that teed off of it sort of breaking lower, then it went down and tagged it. That price run. That's it. On a day like this, if I was not in front |
| 702 | 02:41:43 --> 02:41:53 | of you, if I was just doing my own thing privately. That's my trade. That's it. I'm done. If I was not in front of you today, and I was just doing privately |
| 703 | 02:41:53 --> 02:42:00 | that would have been recorded, and I would have showed you the example. What usually isn't there is me explaining, like I explained to you real time, what |
| 704 | 02:42:00 --> 02:42:09 | was there? What was the catalyst, how we were not being able to go any higher and everything was jagged on the upside, look at it, like it looks like sharp |
| 705 | 02:42:09 --> 02:42:25 | teeth, or you know, what it is the lag bite, or slag might something when you do cave, exploring the little pointy rocks from the bottom or the surface, not the |
| 706 | 02:42:25 --> 02:42:36 | ceiling of the cave. It's a bunch of that kind of stuff, real pointed and jagged. So everything was being offered higher. So that way they can build in |
| 707 | 02:42:36 --> 02:42:45 | short positions and knock out anyone that was premiered prematurely short, they kept getting knocked out. And then real time in front of you, I've told you not |
| 708 | 02:42:45 --> 02:42:54 | see how we're having a hard time getting out of there. The bodies are just simply having a hard time. And we'll see if it wants a rollover, and accelerate. |
| 709 | 02:42:54 --> 02:43:02 | And then I said watch these, where's the areas that are smooth, it's these two lows here. And then if it goes, well, then we want to see it accelerate, because |
| 710 | 02:43:02 --> 02:43:16 | if it does go below those two lows, they're not going to let these individuals off the hook. They're going to run rate for those stops. Okay, and AI does that. |
| 711 | 02:43:17 --> 02:43:28 | Okay, before electronic trading, there was a group of men, okay, that literally would facilitate this whole function. And they would pair their orders. And that |
| 712 | 02:43:28 --> 02:43:37 | would make the market print those prices. And I don't give a fuck, who doesn't believe that that's just the way it is. That's just the way it is. But it's much |
| 713 | 02:43:37 --> 02:43:45 | more efficient now, because we have the advantages of artificial intelligence, electronic trading algorithmically. Nobody needs to babysit it. But there are |
| 714 | 02:43:45 --> 02:43:55 | times when the market is intervened. There's a manual intervention. And what was going to be ran as a script for the day that makes the high and the low of the |
| 715 | 02:43:55 --> 02:44:05 | day and how it's going to perform. All that stuff's pre it's all pre made. It's all it's already determined. There are times though, when events happen, or when |
| 716 | 02:44:05 --> 02:44:15 | they institute an event or create one engineer one, and then they go in and manually to market. And that is one of the biggest risks in the marketplace. |
| 717 | 02:44:15 --> 02:44:24 | Because you can't determine when that's going to occur. You can't determine when it's gonna occur, you can't determine you know, how to protect yourself from it |
| 718 | 02:44:24 --> 02:44:33 | unless you just simply don't trade. Which is exactly why I'm not in forex anymore. I'm not going to be trading Forex, because we are about to see another |
| 719 | 02:44:33 --> 02:44:43 | big ass event. Very similar, if not worse than the D pegging of the Swissy in the Euro, I'm telling you, I'm telling you, it's coming. And because I don't |
| 720 | 02:44:43 --> 02:44:51 | know when and I don't know how to time that I am not allowing myself to be subject to that. I'm not going to let it happen. So I've removed myself from it. |
| 721 | 02:44:51 --> 02:44:57 | So in other words, some of you are pissing your pants right now thinking shit other naughty trading Forex. You do what you want to do, but to answer the same |
| 722 | 02:44:57 --> 02:45:08 | questions keep popping up as Why don't you want to trade For X, because that, because of that, we're gonna see a huge financial crisis and major bank |
| 723 | 02:45:08 --> 02:45:17 | collapses and all these things. That's all this stuff, you know, two years ago in Twitter spaces, and I said it in private mentorship. In the first year of |
| 724 | 02:45:17 --> 02:45:28 | mentorship. I said it in lectures before I even did a paid mentorship in 2016, before Trump was even elected, I told you, everything you're seeing right now, I |
| 725 | 02:45:28 --> 02:45:36 | told you all this stuff was gonna happen. And now we're getting into that, unfortunately, I'm going to use the word, it's gonna be scary for a lot of you, |
| 726 | 02:45:36 --> 02:45:47 | because there's gonna be sudden carnage. And I am not opening myself up to that in forex, because it's going to be currency driven. And it's going to bleed into |
| 727 | 02:45:47 --> 02:45:57 | every other asset class. So I reverted back to what I knew more. So since we took out the 824 sell side, where is the other side of the liquidity 896. And we |
| 728 | 02:45:57 --> 02:46:09 | want to see 896 And maybe, maybe even Pierce up to that 910 In three quarters, that's an afternoon potential likely candidate. I'm not concerned about it right |
| 729 | 02:46:09 --> 02:46:16 | now. But I just want to kind of like cash it go through some other markets is a cigarette just to get a read on, I may not talk too much while I'm doing it. |
| 730 | 02:46:17 --> 02:46:20 | Because I want to see what they're doing. |
| 731 | 02:46:28 --> 02:46:40 | Before I leave this, just, I hope you're gonna appreciate how this is ugly price action, like this is really ugly price action. And still, even in those |
| 732 | 02:46:40 --> 02:46:49 | environments, we can ferret out what the markets likely to do, and how to anticipate timing in terms of speed and magnitude, when it should reach for a |
| 733 | 02:46:49 --> 02:47:00 | specific point of liquidity. In the beginning, while you're learning the progress in the milestones, and the measurements of how well you are developing |
| 734 | 02:47:00 --> 02:47:11 | as a student, you should be doing what I just did today, there was no buttons being pushed, you're giving yourself permission to not know everything initially |
| 735 | 02:47:11 --> 02:47:19 | and wait for more intel, the market will give it to you if you're simply waiting, wait for it and be ready to receive the the intel that it provides you |
| 736 | 02:47:19 --> 02:47:32 | everything was jagged, it was just trying too hard to secure, have run straight from the opening up while leaving something so smooth and obvious like that. And |
| 737 | 02:47:33 --> 02:47:42 | they'll never be able to change that. Okay, that's never going to chuck there's never going to stop working, it's going to always work. That part will always be |
| 738 | 02:47:42 --> 02:47:51 | there. And that's liquidity based. That's the lifeblood of all the markets. So for for those of you are there are just terrified that they're going to change |
| 739 | 02:47:51 --> 02:47:58 | it because more people are doing it. There's always new people behind those people that have already been here. I mean, think about when you started |
| 740 | 02:47:58 --> 02:48:06 | learning how to trade or when you got the bug that you just recently started wanting to do it. Like you're the last one that's ever going to do it. You're |
| 741 | 02:48:06 --> 02:48:16 | the last person that's ever going to want to learn how to trade? No, no. So that's a unreasonable fear. There's no reason to have that. Okay, because |
| 742 | 02:48:16 --> 02:48:26 | there's always going to be this new batch of individuals that don't know what they're doing. And they are liquidity. And you're about well, you know, ICT, the |
| 743 | 02:48:26 --> 02:48:38 | markets don't trade on the heels of the small traders, you know, your stop loss isn't all that interesting to them. I asked this one I had an interview with |
| 744 | 02:48:38 --> 02:48:51 | corbs. I asked him point blank, I said, How many contracts does it take to print any fluctuation in change in price. And he looked befuddled for a second. He's |
| 745 | 02:48:51 --> 02:49:05 | like the one right? In that one contract that one transaction can pierce the high by one tick. And that's the high of the day. And you now go back and say |
| 746 | 02:49:05 --> 02:49:15 | that they're not worried about your stop. They're worried about any opportunity to print that price. That's how they manually did it before before artificial |
| 747 | 02:49:15 --> 02:49:24 | intelligence before it was an algorithmic procedure and process in play. These individuals would look and say, okay, they're literally in a room. They're in a |
| 748 | 02:49:24 --> 02:49:32 | room and they say, Look, I'm going to, I'm going to put an order in at this price. You put the opposing side of it there, and what will that do? It prints |
| 749 | 02:49:32 --> 02:49:44 | that price? That's pairing of orders. Go back and listen to how I taught on baby pips. But now it's much more efficient, everything's electronic. It's already |
| 750 | 02:49:44 --> 02:49:52 | scripted. It doesn't matter how many people were buying and selling the levels they want traded to that's it, that's over. And once they trade there, if you |
| 751 | 02:49:52 --> 02:50:03 | don't understand what those levels are, you're gonna keep pushing. You're gonna keep using your edge until it's dull. and lose money, and hair and brain cells, |
| 752 | 02:50:04 --> 02:50:14 | and patients and health eventually. So you got to learn how to just sit still and wait for the obvious to make itself known. If you're not willing to do that |
| 753 | 02:50:14 --> 02:50:23 | trading is gonna be real hard for you. And that's the part I wish I was better at as a mentor to, like, fix that stuff. But I'm not. And it's very frustrating |
| 754 | 02:50:23 --> 02:50:34 | and frustrating to me a lot when I was teaching people in paid mentorship, there's a lot of people I couldn't reach. And I worked on my sleeve, I was tore |
| 755 | 02:50:34 --> 02:50:48 | up about it. And I did everything I humanly could do. And I couldn't do it. And then you see the other people out there that have much more meteoric success |
| 756 | 02:50:48 --> 02:50:58 | using it, and others that came forward and say, hey, look, it took me a couple years, but I'm here now. And it was worth it. So it gets to Why are you doing |
| 757 | 02:50:58 --> 02:51:09 | this, or don't for social media clout, because that ain't gonna be enough to keep you in just the short term adversities, it's going to put you out of the |
| 758 | 02:51:09 --> 02:51:21 | game with that. If you're not patient or willing to, to adopt a more patient mindset, this is going to wear you down. And you're going to have conditions in |
| 759 | 02:51:21 --> 02:51:31 | the marketplace, and we're getting ready to get into real hard ones. Like, we're going to see some real hard market environments. But I'm hoping that we're gonna |
| 760 | 02:51:31 --> 02:51:42 | get some really breakneck moves. And that's worth it for me. We're gonna see some historic price action this year, okay, and maybe rolling into 2025, maybe |
| 761 | 02:51:42 --> 02:51:52 | the first half of it. But it's going to be nuts like crazy town. And I just want to make sure that I'm protecting myself. And I've been very transparent as to |
| 762 | 02:51:52 --> 02:52:02 | why I'm not trading Forex. It's not that you can't make money with it, you can. But I'm not interested in opening myself up to a measure of risk that I know is |
| 763 | 02:52:02 --> 02:52:12 | looming out there. And I just don't want to get destroyed, like a move that occurred with the euro and Swissy. Because it's going to be bigger than at this |
| 764 | 02:52:12 --> 02:52:22 | time. And you're not going to be able to protect yourself, your stop loss is not going to work. It won't work for you. It will not work you We get hundreds or |
| 765 | 02:52:22 --> 02:52:33 | 1000s of pips beyond where your stop loss would be. Imagine that what would that do for you, it would end you in that dimension, near the scar tissue that it |
| 766 | 02:52:33 --> 02:52:43 | would leave. So I'm erring on the side of caution. And saying I'll let all you guys out there that want to trade Forex, get all that money, I don't care. |
| 767 | 02:52:44 --> 02:52:50 | There's always another market out there. I could be trading coffee and nobody know about it. And that's the only thing I'm doing. You can make money doing it. |
| 768 | 02:52:52 --> 02:53:00 | There's all kinds of markets out there. It's not limited to just Forex. It's not limited just index futures. I showed you cocoa cocoa is beating the shadow of |
| 769 | 02:53:00 --> 02:53:13 | Bitcoin. It didn't take much in terms of margin to get that kind of move or that percentage gain compared to Bitcoin. So I now just ruffle a lot of crypto was |
| 770 | 02:53:13 --> 02:53:21 | feathers but I just want you to think don't lock yourself into just you started trading crypto when it got popular and you think that's the only thing that |
| 771 | 02:53:21 --> 02:53:29 | makes money. There's a whole lot of other things that make a lot of money and you don't have to worry about it staying in these long stagnant consolidations |
| 772 | 02:53:29 --> 02:53:50 | like crypto tends to get into so I breeze through here we'll see the Dow if you look at that mess that that is disgusting. Ah that is a grenade that's a that's |
| 773 | 02:53:50 --> 02:53:58 | a date you don't want to go home with that somebody you don't want to spend any anytime Good grief. You wonder why don't like the Dow That's it right there. It |
| 774 | 02:53:58 --> 02:53:58 | tells you a |
| 775 | 02:54:05 --> 02:54:13 | quick look at the bond market and not much going on there |
| 776 | 02:54:31 --> 02:54:41 | you see where the dollars going? To probably bring them to silver |
| 777 | 02:54:55 --> 02:55:10 | mentioned coffee. Let's see what the contract looks like now. I just recently had a nice retracement and there may be a little bit more today when I was in |
| 778 | 02:55:11 --> 02:55:22 | the nice runs in the grain markets in the 90s Every time I saw this type of move here, I thought that it was done and I would go try to trade something else like |
| 779 | 02:55:23 --> 02:55:36 | hogs or cattle or whatnot, high grade copper. And then all of this like weeks later would be gone and it'd be up, like $10,000 more per contract. In the 90s, |
| 780 | 02:55:36 --> 02:55:50 | we had some really awesome, awesome runs in the grains, like they were like corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat, oats, canola, like all those |
| 781 | 02:55:50 --> 02:56:03 | markets. They were like, easy to get in it and just hold on to it and just let it go. Kind of like your toddler mentality for crypto. It was just, it was wild, |
| 782 | 02:56:03 --> 02:56:12 | like it was wild. And I really didn't have a clue what the hell I was doing. And just got lucky with it. And that kind of when is the equivalent to that's why I |
| 783 | 02:56:12 --> 02:56:21 | kind of like, you know, I can relate to all the people that got into bitcoin when it was running up. They feel smart, they feel like they're part of a group |
| 784 | 02:56:21 --> 02:56:35 | of people that are just hit, there's this other note. And then it failed and went from 20,000 down to 6003 1000 something. And I know you want it to be what |
| 785 | 02:56:35 --> 02:56:44 | you believe it to be. But I don't believe that. And I think they're using it's just a Trojan horse really is what it is. Let's think of it like that. It's been |
| 786 | 02:56:44 --> 02:56:51 | used to get people warmed up to Central Bank digital currencies, because, well, it's going to be just like your Bitcoin, it's going to be just like your ripple, |
| 787 | 02:56:51 --> 02:57:02 | it's going to be just like your whatever, when you're not allowed to use that stuff anymore. And they force everything in this expiration date, level |
| 788 | 02:57:02 --> 02:57:11 | currency. And yes, you heard that right, your money's gonna have expiration if you don't spend it, you lose it. That's not money folks. That's slavery. So |
| 789 | 02:57:12 --> 02:57:18 | that's what's coming to see you know, the other markets |
| 790 | 02:58:13 --> 02:58:25 | that's a nice run from that sellside been taken. And to get all that back like that that's what this whole week's gonna be like, a whole lot of traversing up |
| 791 | 02:58:25 --> 02:58:34 | in them. And that's why I mentioned that you gotta be careful not to try to have a bias, just trade intraday volatility. If it isn't obvious what it wants to |
| 792 | 02:58:34 --> 02:58:45 | reach for next. Don't do anything. Don't trade without a stop loss. Because you can see it can really pull back on you. And if you don't, if you don't have a |
| 793 | 02:58:45 --> 02:58:58 | stop loss, you don't want to discover that that was a mistake after the fact. But I know I said I would do four hours today and tomorrow but I'm really at a |
| 794 | 02:58:58 --> 02:59:08 | point where it has nothing else I could talk about. I mean we've we had something delivered timely based on what I saw at the time. outlining why in |
| 795 | 02:59:08 --> 02:59:20 | that way it's a little less work to go through today because we spent more time waiting for the indexes I didn't look at the Forex real quick again. |
| 796 | 02:59:38 --> 02:59:47 | Sale sign inefficiency breaks. Let's take a look at that on a 32nd chart |
| 797 | 02:59:54 --> 03:00:08 | by side taken breaks bounced the price range. What is a bounce price range? Bounce price range is when you have two inefficiencies in opposing directions in |
| 798 | 03:00:08 --> 03:00:23 | the same general area in terms of price, that's this, in this, that range in that range. In other words, it is a fear of a gap that can be viewed this way, |
| 799 | 03:00:24 --> 03:00:34 | or that line with one candle right in the middle. That's the better one. Because they're gonna be sudden, they're gonna be more impactful and direct, but it can |
| 800 | 03:00:34 --> 03:00:50 | form where you have this, and then a group of candles. And then one single pass down that overlaps the previous imbalance. That is typically what they call that |
| 801 | 03:00:50 --> 03:00:59 | an island reversal. If it's a group of candles like that, or bars, and there wouldn't be a connection with this candle or that candle, it would be dislike, |
| 802 | 03:01:00 --> 03:01:08 | this was where it stopped trading the next the next day it gapped up here. So there's a real gap, a common gap, not an inefficiency like this, where there was |
| 803 | 03:01:08 --> 03:01:16 | actually trading. That's why to say it's in liquidity voids is kind of like a misnomer. There is liquidity, it was there was trading there. It just doesn't |
| 804 | 03:01:16 --> 03:01:27 | have the cell site delivery, which is given to it here. So an island reverse when you if you have just Google an island reversal pattern, it's a very classic |
| 805 | 03:01:27 --> 03:01:39 | chart pattern. I use that to kind of like describe what a balanced price ranges. And then I want to correct the individuals that foolishly talk out their ass and |
| 806 | 03:01:39 --> 03:01:53 | say, I renamed something. There are no connective candles or bars in that pattern. But the same logic of how when it goes up, and creates this pause of |
| 807 | 03:01:53 --> 03:02:07 | multiple candles, where it just stays in a general area, and then finally collapses. See on island reversal, when we were just trading open high low close |
| 808 | 03:02:07 --> 03:02:13 | bars. Every time I start to do this, I regret starting to do |
| 809 | 03:02:19 --> 03:02:27 | All right, so that would look like that. And then you could have something like this. |
| 810 | 03:02:39 --> 03:02:51 | 2345 whatever number of candles that are just hanging around up here, after a gap, this is like a common gap. And in reality, it's a exhausting gap. Then it |
| 811 | 03:02:51 --> 03:03:05 | gaps down open that a later time it leaves these group of candles or one individual candle. Okay? This gapping formation here, that can't happen in our |
| 812 | 03:03:05 --> 03:03:18 | electronic markets now, because they're continuously delivering price. But that same phenomenon is occurring between here and here. Okay, so what I was doing, |
| 813 | 03:03:19 --> 03:03:33 | as a trader, I would look for these when they were piling reversals like this. After the market had been dropping, and it creates these types of scenarios |
| 814 | 03:03:33 --> 03:03:41 | where there's a gap down, that's an exhaustion gap, that means you're near the end of the move, then it's down here, it spends time it doesn't drop any more. |
| 815 | 03:03:41 --> 03:03:54 | But then suddenly, there's a gap up. What I like to do was I would enter right inside this gap between both of them. You don't see anybody John Murphy doesn't |
| 816 | 03:03:54 --> 03:04:04 | teach that nobody no for ever, ever taught to enter like that. They never did that. And I'm welcoming you to go find it. Because it's not there. When you |
| 817 | 03:04:04 --> 03:04:13 | listen to people out there, say I renamed something. No. All you have to do is prove it. And nobody's proved it get $5 million paid directly to you in a bank |
| 818 | 03:04:13 --> 03:04:21 | check. I'll come to your house and hand it to you. You can live streaming. But all that's bullshit. You get got to ask these people to them proof and they will |
| 819 | 03:04:21 --> 03:04:31 | ever have it. But anyway, that same mechanism, that entry pattern here, since I told you I'm gonna teach you some entry patterns this week. You take the lowest |
| 820 | 03:04:33 --> 03:04:41 | and the highest now the highest is easy because it's only gonna be that one candle here. But if it was multiple candles, separating the two opposing |
| 821 | 03:04:42 --> 03:04:50 | inefficiencies there, you would use the highest of the low, whichever candle that would be. But when it's just one candle, then it's a dead ringer. It's |
| 822 | 03:04:50 --> 03:05:04 | easy, right? Then you draw this out in time. And you already probably see what I'm talking about. There's your bounce price rings, nailing it perfectly. And |
| 823 | 03:05:04 --> 03:05:23 | then Ben. But that's probably just buying and selling pressure, right? Good. So good. I see. Oh, man, it's so good. Anyway, let's see what the Australian dollar |
| 824 | 03:05:25 --> 03:05:37 | is sure it's all made up. It's contrived. He's making it up. Australian Dollar I'm gonna be honest with you only miss training this one |
| 825 | 03:05:51 --> 03:06:05 | Yeah, yeah, I think it's one of the we're gonna have an early dismissal. Today I'm content with what I've given today I'll give you some insights on reversal |
| 826 | 03:06:05 --> 03:06:21 | patterns, how to factor them as a high probability condition, how to frame it using the dollar index as like an opposing. In inverted market correlated asset. |
| 827 | 03:06:22 --> 03:06:36 | When like using what Forex I'll teach you some things with Forex, I covered some things with order flow that can't be taught unless you're looking at congestion |
| 828 | 03:06:36 --> 03:06:50 | in price that we have here today. I showed you real time how the market will kind of like show its hand to you. And how you can anticipate when it's likely |
| 829 | 03:06:50 --> 03:07:00 | to run for a draw on liquidity, how to submit to time waiting, when it doesn't feel comfortable. You know, when you're in, you're out here. And you're you're |
| 830 | 03:07:00 --> 03:07:11 | trying to find a setup, learning to sit still and wait and get more information instead of just going out there and recklessly plunging, feel comfortable and |
| 831 | 03:07:12 --> 03:07:24 | not discouraged. Because you don't have a clear read on price at any given moment. That's the very times that you will in probably have in everybody else |
| 832 | 03:07:24 --> 03:07:33 | wrecks themselves. Because they're trying to force something, they're impatient like I got time to do something else today, if I can get some money, I will make |
| 833 | 03:07:33 --> 03:07:53 | some money. And you end up forcing yourself into a trade that run there's the sell side. Here's the typical as much help punches through that. There you go. |
| 834 | 03:07:56 --> 03:08:04 | So now look at it. It should be real obvious to you when I was describing how it's jagged, everything up is jagged. It's like reaching and reaching reaching, |
| 835 | 03:08:04 --> 03:08:13 | the only thing it's doing is sending orders into this order flow here and clearing the by side. So all of the guys that want to see this as a liquidity |
| 836 | 03:08:13 --> 03:08:25 | void, oh, it fills it in now it's gonna go down wrong. Wrong. And that's why I don't teach like that. It's that's not what's going on here. But that's, that's |
| 837 | 03:08:25 --> 03:08:34 | the end of the day for me right here that's completes everything that I wouldn't be interested in looking for anything else today, I'd be completely content, I |
| 838 | 03:08:34 --> 03:08:47 | would turn the charts off. Go get your fishing pole, go out and get some fish, get some sun, take a bike ride, do something outdoors, get some get some grass |
| 839 | 03:08:47 --> 03:08:56 | on your on your toes and your feet. Me I'm gonna go grab some soup. And then I take my dogs out back and play with them and enjoy the rest of the afternoon. I |
| 840 | 03:08:56 --> 03:09:03 | suggest you do something similar. Relax and enjoy it. Okay. Hopefully you found something insightful today. Hopefully I scratched that itch and gave you |
| 841 | 03:09:03 --> 03:09:15 | something to kind of like bolster some more confidence and encouragement to stick with your study. It's it's not a hard it's not an easy market right now. |
| 842 | 03:09:15 --> 03:09:25 | So if you feel, you know, adversities right now, you're hearing it from a guy that's been doing it for 32 years. It's not easy right now. But there are still |
| 843 | 03:09:25 --> 03:09:33 | opportunities. There's still things that you can do. This stuff still works. But in the hands of a neophyte or five minute trainer wannabe, you're not going to |
| 844 | 03:09:33 --> 03:09:43 | get that level of insight. And I know that gets people off into the sheet when I talk like that, but I do it for your benefit. Not to brag, because it's if |
| 845 | 03:09:43 --> 03:09:51 | anybody could teach it better. I would say you know what, you did a better job teaching. I have no shame in that. Honestly, God's honest truth if someone was |
| 846 | 03:09:51 --> 03:10:00 | able to teach my content better than me and you can't because you don't know at all. So that's why I'm that's why I talk the way I do When you don't know |
| 847 | 03:10:00 --> 03:10:08 | everything, how are you going to know all the intricate details and the things that dovetail together nicely to constitute a high probability setup using what |
| 848 | 03:10:08 --> 03:10:17 | I created, you don't know that you only know what you think you've discovered by me introducing it to you. That's, that's the only thing you got, you got to |
| 849 | 03:10:17 --> 03:10:25 | splash over. That's it. Now, the models themselves, they're, they're standalone. Like, you don't need anything additional. That's the whole point of having the |
| 850 | 03:10:25 --> 03:10:35 | model. But you have been taught how to trade you've been taught how to read price action, you've been shown in really crummy market conditions. And it still |
| 851 | 03:10:35 --> 03:10:46 | works. It still works. So hopefully, it's an encouragement to you. If you've learned something today, if you had fun learning, even in a slow drawn out murky |
| 852 | 03:10:46 --> 03:10:57 | market conditions, get this lashing or thumbs up, I saw about 12,000 of them or so or 11,000 Yesterday, I think it's 12,000. Which I appreciate that that's |
| 853 | 03:10:57 --> 03:11:05 | awesome. Trust me, I don't make any more money because of it. It's just a way for you to give me feedback and say, Look, you know, I appreciate I got |
| 854 | 03:11:05 --> 03:11:12 | something from this. So if you learned something today, and it helped you increase your understanding about the marketplace and or inspired you to study |
| 855 | 03:11:12 --> 03:11:19 | more. That was the goal. That was the aim. And that's what I'm here to do it. I want to see you do well and I want to see you kill it. So until I'll talk to you |
| 856 | 03:11:19 --> 03:11:22 | tomorrow, Lord willing eight o'clock. We say |