ICT YT - 2024-04-29 - How To Read Price With Or Without A Bias - Day 1 of 3 Summary
LLM Generated Summary
ICT and various speakers discuss market bias, trading strategies, and risk management techniques. They emphasize the importance of identifying market conditions, adjusting trading strategies, and managing risk effectively. Speakers highlight the significance of seasonal tendencies, analyzing price action, and understanding geopolitical factors. They also stress the importance of confidence, discipline, and emotional control in trading. ICT and Speaker 2 discuss the value of proper teaching and mentoring, with ICT wanting to help others succeed and Speaker 2 desiring to do something nice for other people with their earnings.
Transcript
Action Items
[ ] Continue livestreaming tape reading sessions to demonstrate analysis.
[ ] Leave a post-series discussion thread for any additional questions.
[ ] Consider addressing specific analysis points raised in future discussions.
Outline
Bias in trading with live price action analysis.
- ICT explains how to determine bias in trading, addressing common questions from viewers.
- ICT provides live commentary on price action, demonstrating efficiency and logic in real-time.
Trading bias and how to manage it using price action.
- The speaker shares their daily trading routine and how they analyze market data.
- The speaker will teach the audience how to do both, leaving a post-Wednesday evening comment for any additional questions.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding price action and managing trades without relying on unnecessary information.
- The speaker will cover how to overcome fear and manage trades using price action on Wednesday.
Seasonal tendencies in commodity trading with references to Larry Williams and Jake Bernstein.
- ICT uses Steve Moore's seasonal tendencies to inform trading decisions.
- ICT expresses skepticism towards Jake Bernstein's seasonal tendency work despite Larry Williams' endorsement.
Seasonal tendencies in trading, focusing on spring and fall periods.
- ICT refers viewers to a free resource for seasonal tendency charts.
- ICT encourages viewers to investigate and use the resource for themselves.
- ICT identifies best times for trading in spring and fall based on seasonal tendencies.
- Focus on spring and fall sessions for directional runs that last weeks to months.
- In a bearish market environment, you have a loaded deal if you anticipate these runs.
Market trends and opportunities in spring and fall months.
- The speaker expects the market to reach its spring highs in late August/early September and then decline into November.
- The speaker identifies September/October as a favorable time for long positions, as the market tends to rally during this period.
Using seasonal tendencies in trading with a focus on patience and maturity.
- ICT anticipates market move of hundreds of handles based on seasonal tendencies.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding market structure, seasonal tendencies, and narrative in trading.
- The speaker encourages listeners to invest a minimum of a year to fully appreciate and understand market dynamics.
Using seasonal tendencies and economic calendar analysis for forex trading.
- ICT explains the importance of economic calendars for forex traders, highlighting the Forex Factory calendar as a useful tool for identifying high-impact events.
- ICT criticizes the use of economic data releases as excuses for market manipulation, emphasizing the importance of understanding the motivations of those in control.
- The speaker discusses the importance of timing in trading, particularly around scheduled economic events.
- The speaker emphasizes the advantage of having information before the public and using it to make informed trading decisions.
- ICT identifies seasonal tendencies in the market, which he uses to anticipate volatility and make bearish trades.
- ICT looks for periods of fake runs or judo swings, which are sudden price movements that can lead to profitable trades.
Trading psychology and the importance of building a plan.
- Ict explains how he learned to ignore indicators and focus on context in trading.
- ICT learned trading lessons through losing real money and analyzing mistakes.
- Allowing oneself to be wrong and giving permission to speculate is crucial in trading.
Trading strategies and market analysis.
- I look for bearish market structure, seasonal tendencies, and news drivers to trade.
- I want to see a manipulative price run before the news driver hits, ideally with a short-term low before 8:30 AM.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding market structure and price action in trading.
- He explains why traders should not rely solely on indicators for successful trades.
Analyzing market patterns and anticipating price movements.
- ICT explains how traders get trapped going long after a news event, leading to a market structure shift.
- ICT outlines a strategy for identifying and capitalizing on these shifts, using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.
- The speaker anticipates manipulation to the upside before a market event, leading to a high of the session or day.
- The speaker waits for the market to run higher after the event, trapping short traders and ripping their faces off.
- ICT explains how he trades with a 4.5% risk level, even in unfavorable market conditions.
- He emphasizes the importance of collecting data over time to improve trading probabilities.
Trading strategies and the importance of experience and discipline.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of experience and knowledge in trading.
- ICT emphasizes importance of discipline and personal responsibility in trading.
Streaming and trading with $160,000 taken out.
- The speaker admires Matt Miller for his simplicity and ability to push aside criticism while live streaming.
- The speaker is impressed by Matt Miller's ability to take $160,000 out of Apex, a company like Top Step, despite not doing over-the-top things.
Day trading strategies and avoiding bias in market analysis.
- Matt Miller is the number one day trader on YouTube, according to the speaker.
- The speaker encourages the listener to focus on what works and not try to do more.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of identifying the smallest threshold of profitability and giving oneself permission to avoid trading during certain days, such as Non Farm Payroll and FOMC events.
- The speaker prioritizes avoiding daily bias during earnings season and focuses on light days, acknowledging the potential for a "wild wheat of trading."
Trading strategies and risk management.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding market conditions before trading.
- The speaker's risk management strategy involves adjusting leverage and maximum risk based on market conditions.
- ICT emphasizes importance of big rocks (bias indicators) in trading.
Geopolitical risks impacting currency markets, with potential for bank failures.
- I expect the dollar to appreciate in value due to Middle East tensions, potentially impacting trading.
- ICT warns of impending bank collapse, citing recent failures and market volatility.
Technical analysis and trading using charts and timeframes.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding risk and the dollar index in trading.
- ICT uses TradingView for chart analysis, but does not receive any compensation for promoting the platform.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of analyzing the dollar index on a monthly chart to understand market trends and make informed trading decisions.
- ICT stresses the need to consider the price delivery continuum when analyzing charts at different timeframes, from the monthly to the 15-second chart.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of identifying bias and trading opportunities on different timeframes.
- ICT teaches how to use the price delivery continuum to identify buying and selling opportunities in real-time.
Candlestick chart analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT identifies inefficiency in Doppler chart, highlights turning point created by wick.
- ICT identifies key price points for bullish trading based on candlestick patterns.
Trading and analyzing price movements in the stock market.
- ICT argues that price movements are not random, but rather the result of a small group of winners taking from a large group of losers in a "casino-like" system.
- Trader waits for gamblers to sit at slot machines, then trades based on payout ratio.
Market manipulation and trading strategies.
- Trader seeks to profit from market manipulation by observing and waiting for price to deliver maximum carnage.
- Trader identifies key moments in the market, including macro events and audience management.
Technical analysis and trading strategies using monthly charts.
- ICT discusses news driver analysis for price action trading.
- The speaker discusses their trading strategy, including pyramiding entries and managing emotions.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of having a selective process for trading and avoiding losses.
- ICT explains that the price action is in a discount market, with the dollar likely to go higher or lower based on recent developments.
- ICT uses qualitative and quantitative analysis to determine the range of the price action, with equilibrium serving as a key level for determining premium to discount.
Technical analysis of a stock chart, focusing on a potential buying opportunity.
- ICT expects the market to stay in a discount, potentially leading to a larger, longer-term price run higher.
- ICT identifies untapped opportunity in dollar's range, indicating potential for higher prices.
Chart analysis and levels, including midpoint and equilibrium.
- ICT explains how to identify key levels of support and resistance in a chart.
Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT identifies a potential order block at $105.41, with a low of $105.41 and a close of $105.44.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of focusing on weekly charts for trading decisions, rather than monthly charts.
- ICT explains his trading process, emphasizing rule-based ideas and protocols.
- He wants to teach his student an independent mentality, fostering self-sufficiency.
- ICT highlights the importance of understanding why he makes certain decisions, sharing his thought process to help the student learn and grow.
Short-term trading opportunities in the forex market, focusing on the dollar index and potential price movements based on economic uncertainty.
- Trader prioritizes focusing on low-hanging fruit near key level.
- ICT discusses short-term scalping opportunities in currencies, highlighting potential drawdowns and uncertainties.
Using inefficiencies and order blocks to make trading decisions.
- ICT teaches how to identify turning points using inefficiencies and order blocks.
- ICT explains that he wants his algorithm to color outside the lines sometimes, but only in certain instances.
- ICT highlights the importance of the weekly chart inefficiency and how it affects the lower timeframes.
Trading strategies for the week with a focus on scalping and managing risk.
- ICT: Focused on daily bias, but avoid holding it this week due to impact drivers (news events).
- ICT: Avoiding big plays today, as they'll be reserved for tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
- ICT advises scalping this week due to high volatility and potential one-sidedness.
- Focus on opening range breakout for bullish daily bias, filtering out against it to manage risk.
Market inefficiency and potential trading opportunities.
- Analyst identifies potential fair value gap on NASDAQ based on economic calendar events.
- ICT expects market to reach midpoint, then potentially resume or consolidate.
Identifying market trends through analysis of opening prices and order blocks.
- The opening price of an order block is the key crucial point of information for determining the market's direction and speed.
- The location of an order block in market structure will indicate whether it's a target, initial entry, or stop loss placement.
- ICT provides valuable information on order blocks and price delivery.
Trading strategies using ICT's bias and fair value levels.
- ICT teaches how to trade by practicing price delivery observation.
- Journaling helps traders identify areas for improvement and manage emotions.
- Managing a journal can help traders avoid negative self-talk and identify opportunities for learning.
- The speaker identifies a potential trading opportunity in the E-mini NASDAQ based on a specific price swing and fair value analysis.
- The speaker plans to take a partial position in the upper quadrant of the range, with the potential for further gains if the market closes above the midpoint of the fair value range.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of predetermining target levels for partial and conclusion trades to avoid emotional decision-making during trading.
- ICT demonstrates how to logically frame out low-hanging fruit objectives to maximize profits while minimizing risk.
Trading strategies and avoiding common mistakes.
- ICT teaches students how to use his terminology correctly, avoiding rebranded bullshit.
- ICT's students are achieving success in the marketplace, attributing their results to his concepts.
- The speaker warns against setting easy objectives without considering the bigger picture, leading to gambling instead of trading.
- Consistency is key to success in trading, with the speaker advocating for a logical model and avoiding social media approval.
Trading strategies and mindset for success in the financial market.
- ICT advises against rushing to get a funded account, instead advocating for slow and steady progress.
- He emphasizes the importance of being in the trading business for the long term, not just focusing on short-term success.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of following a proven trading process and protocol to achieve success in the market.
- The speaker warns against relying on unproven methods and shortcuts, and instead encourages listeners to focus on developing a long-term trading strategy.
Personal responsibility and accountability in trading, with emphasis on overcoming emotional biases and consistently applying a proven methodology for profitability
- The trader attributes their success to personal responsibility and accountability, rather than any specific methodology.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of consistency in profitability, rather than relying on a single large payday.
Stock market analysis and price action with emphasis on NASDAQ and S&P.
- ICT explains the importance of understanding price action and identifying essential information in the early stages of a trade.
- ICT highlights the potential for NASDAQ to trade higher in sympathy with S&P, but warns of potential risks and the need for proper analysis.
Market structure, seasonality, and bias in trading.
- ICT expects a change in market structure if ES closes above midpoint.
- ICT discusses daily bias, weekly bias, and session bias in trading.
Trading with bias and managing emotions.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of self-control and maturity in trading, and how it's better to miss out on a trade than to take a risky setup that may not pan out.
- The speaker encourages listeners to filter out unreliable setups and only take trades that they are confident in, rather than blindly following every opportunity.
- Trader discusses importance of protocols and expectations in trading.
- ICT: Down close candles in an up move indicate strength, but excessive ones may signal consolidation or reversal.
- ICT: Respect for stop loss levels is crucial in determining the strength of a price leg or rally, with immediate respect needed after a lackluster candle.
Trading, personal growth, and the importance of keeping things personal and private.
- ICT shares insights on market analysis and prediction after 6 years of live teaching.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of keeping trading personal and private, rather than trying to impress others.
- The speaker advises against over-leveraging and risking, and instead encourages traders to focus on making tangible progress and spending their profits.
Using daily bias and order blocks for trading.
- ICT teaches daily bias trading, focusing on setups that fit his risk-on/risk-off criteria.
- ICT analyzes daily chart order blocks to identify potential price targets and areas of inefficiency.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of transposing higher timeframe levels to lower timeframes for more accurate trading.
Using YouTube live streamers' chat windows for market sentiment analysis.
- The speaker likes using YouTube live streamers' chat windows for market sentiment, as they provide real-time emotional responses that can be used to inform trading decisions.
- The speaker believes that the market sentiment expressed in the chat windows is often more accurate than what professional traders and analysts provide, as it reflects the opinions of individuals who are not trying to be polished or professional.
- I analyze live streamers' emotional responses to identify potential trading opportunities.
Identifying potential trading opportunities using technical analysis and immediate rebalance.
- Trader identifies potential inefficiency in price action on a 4-hour chart.
- ICT analyzes market behavior to identify potential fair value gaps, which can lead to strong price movements.
- In immediate rebalance situations, ICT looks for a big bullish or bearish candle followed by a retest of the previous candle's high or low, indicating a potential fair value gap.
- ICT explains how to trade based on candle patterns, showing examples in live trading.
Trading strategies using higher timeframes to enter trades.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of using the 15-minute and hourly charts for trading, citing his quick decision-making mechanism and preference for more frequent trades.
- ICT highlights the significance of the blue line on the daily order block, which represents the opening price and is not a random level, but rather a specific price level that changes the state of delivery.
- ICT: Missing trades by not transposing levels to lower timeframes can result in missed opportunities.
- ICT: Entering trades based on high-frequency trading algorithms can help avoid chasing moves.
Technical analysis and trading strategies using order blocks and price action signatures.
- ICT identifies bullish breaker at daily opening price, reaching for opposing side of inefficiency.
- ICT explains how to identify a bullish order block by analyzing the price action and order flow.
Technical analysis and trading strategies in the stock market.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics and entry points.
- ICT discusses the importance of measuring gaps in technical analysis, highlighting their potential for identifying bullish price runs.
- ICT compares trading to hyperspace travel, emphasizing the importance of being part of trades that take off quickly and efficiently.
- ICT wants immediate feedback and handshake to profitability, not wasting time.
- ICT teaches traders to look for specific visual setups, such as a bull flag or fair value gap.
- ICT takes partial profits as soon as momentum wanes after a run, scaling out of the trade.
Trading and overcoming personal doubts.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of confidence in trading, citing his own success as an example.
- ICT encourages listeners to ignore doubters and focus on their own growth and success.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of overcoming personal doubts and uncertainties to succeed in trading.
- The speaker encourages listeners to focus on learning and improving their processes, rather than getting distracted by external factors.
Analyzing price levels and identifying potential trading opportunities using PD arrays.
- ICT identifies liquidity pools and price levels for potential trading opportunities.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding price dynamics in the cryptocurrency market.
Trading fair value gaps in cryptocurrency with emphasis on entry and risk management.
- ICT explains how to identify a fair value gap entry point in a candle chart, using the 5-minute chart as an example.
- ICT provides a framework for calculating the risk and entry size based on the low of the previous candle, with a risk parameter of 1%.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of managing risk and not demanding perfect entries or exits.
- ICT advises against trying to capture every possible profit opportunity, instead focusing on logical and manageable risk management.
Ignoring unrealistic expectations and focusing on the basics for profitability.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of a solid foundation and process for success, rather than relying on luck or shortcuts.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of not trying to convince others of the truth, especially when they are unwilling to listen or do their own research.
Trading and market manipulation.
- ICT argues that stop loss use is inevitable in trading due to greed.
- ICT argues that markets are manipulated and controlled, with traders chasing short-term gains while ignoring long-term opportunities.
Trading strategies and risk management.
- ICT highlights the tendency for new traders to give away profitable days by continuing to trade, despite the potential for losses.
- The opening gap can act as a target, entry, or buffer for a stop loss, making it a risky location for placing stops.
- Placing stops inside a new day or week opening gap can lead to stop loss orders being hit, resulting in losses.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of self-approval and inner motivation in trading, rather than seeking external validation.
- The speaker warns against getting caught up in unnecessary chatter and comparisons, instead focusing on personal growth and results.
Trading, risk management, and ego management.
- ICT advises against comparing oneself to others and instead emphasizes the importance of focusing on one's own progress and results.
- The speaker is resisting the urge to respond to comments and engage with the audience, instead choosing to prioritize their own goals and objectives.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of owning up to losses and not making excuses in trading.
Stock market analysis with mentions of candlesticks and Middle East events.
- ICT predicts dollar drop on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday with confidence, except for potential Middle East-inspired events.
Trading strategies using fair value gaps and order blocks.
- Ideal entries are at fair value gaps or bullish blocks (ICT)
- Look for inefficiencies in the upper half for buying pressure (ICT)
- Unknown Speaker discusses trading basics, including order blocks and stop losses.
- Speaker addresses common complaints from students, including lack of content.
- ICT is looking for setups like the one in the daily chart, where the low of the candlestick is used as the entry point.
- The stop loss is placed at the body or low of the candlestick, depending on risk tolerance.
Trading strategies and risk management.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of managing risk and not trying to squeeze every possible outcome in trading.
- The speaker shares their personal experience of quitting dozens of times but eventually learning how to trade properly.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of finding low-hanging fruit in trading, rather than trying to pick the low or high of the day.
- The speaker encourages traders to be content with small profits and avoid overthinking or second-guessing their trades.
Trading strategies and market analysis.
- Trader discusses market analysis and trading strategies with a focus on price action.
Trading strategies and risk management.
- The speaker discusses the importance of identifying highs and lows in a candlestick chart to make informed trading decisions.
- The speaker highlights the inefficiency in the market and how it can be used to their advantage by identifying and trading on the separation between the high and low of a candle.
- The speaker discusses trading strategies using runners, including taking profits at defined levels or managing stop losses to maximize gains.
- The speaker highlights the importance of identifying fair value gaps and managing stop losses to avoid entering a realm where the market can retrace.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of managing expectations and staying within a bias in trading.
- ICT encourages viewers to give feedback through thumbs up or thumbs down to show appreciation or lack thereof for the content.