ICT YT - 2024-04-29 - How To Read Price With Or Without A Bias - Day 1 of 3
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-05-02 10:27
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ICT YT - 2024-04-29 - How To Read Price With Or Without A Bias - Day 1 of 3
01:36 - Bias in trading with live price action analysis.
- ICT explains how to determine bias in trading, addressing common questions from viewers.
- ICT provides live commentary on price action, demonstrating efficiency and logic in real-time.
04:12 - Trading bias and how to manage it using price action.
- The speaker shares their daily trading routine and how they analyze market data.
- The speaker will teach the audience how to do both, leaving a post-Wednesday evening comment for any additional questions.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding price action and managing trades without relying on unnecessary information.
- The speaker will cover how to overcome fear and manage trades using price action on Wednesday.
08:26 - Seasonal tendencies in commodity trading with references to Larry Williams and Jake Bernstein.
- ICT uses Steve Moore's seasonal tendencies to inform trading decisions.
- ICT expresses skepticism towards Jake Bernstein's seasonal tendency work despite Larry Williams' endorsement.
11:45 - Seasonal tendencies in trading, focusing on spring and fall periods.
- ICT refers viewers to a free resource for seasonal tendency charts.
- ICT encourages viewers to investigate and use the resource for themselves.
- ICT identifies best times for trading in spring and fall based on seasonal tendencies.
- Focus on spring and fall sessions for directional runs that last weeks to months.
- In a bearish market environment, you have a loaded deal if you anticipate these runs.
18:11 - Market trends and opportunities in spring and fall months.
- The speaker expects the market to reach its spring highs in late August/early September and then decline into November.
- The speaker identifies September/October as a favorable time for long positions, as the market tends to rally during this period.
21:07 - Using seasonal tendencies in trading with a focus on patience and maturity.
- ICT anticipates market move of hundreds of handles based on seasonal tendencies.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding market structure, seasonal tendencies, and narrative in trading.
- The speaker encourages listeners to invest a minimum of a year to fully appreciate and understand market dynamics.
25:30 - Using seasonal tendencies and economic calendar analysis for forex trading.
- ICT explains the importance of economic calendars for forex traders, highlighting the Forex Factory calendar as a useful tool for identifying high-impact events.
- ICT criticizes the use of economic data releases as excuses for market manipulation, emphasizing the importance of understanding the motivations of those in control.
- The speaker discusses the importance of timing in trading, particularly around scheduled economic events.
- The speaker emphasizes the advantage of having information before the public and using it to make informed trading decisions.
- ICT identifies seasonal tendencies in the market, which he uses to anticipate volatility and make bearish trades.
- ICT looks for periods of fake runs or judo swings, which are sudden price movements that can lead to profitable trades.
33:40 - Trading psychology and the importance of building a plan.
- Ict explains how he learned to ignore indicators and focus on context in trading.
- ICT learned trading lessons through losing real money and analyzing mistakes.
- Allowing oneself to be wrong and giving permission to speculate is crucial in trading.
37:12 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- I look for bearish market structure, seasonal tendencies, and news drivers to trade.
- I want to see a manipulative price run before the news driver hits, ideally with a short-term low before 8:30 AM.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding market structure and price action in trading.
- He explains why traders should not rely solely on indicators for successful trades.
42:09 - Analyzing market patterns and anticipating price movements.
- ICT explains how traders get trapped going long after a news event, leading to a market structure shift.
- ICT outlines a strategy for identifying and capitalizing on these shifts, using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.
- The speaker anticipates manipulation to the upside before a market event, leading to a high of the session or day.
- The speaker waits for the market to run higher after the event, trapping short traders and ripping their faces off.
- ICT explains how he trades with a 4.5% risk level, even in unfavorable market conditions.
- He emphasizes the importance of collecting data over time to improve trading probabilities.
49:57 - Trading strategies and the importance of experience and discipline.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of experience and knowledge in trading.
- ICT emphasizes importance of discipline and personal responsibility in trading.
54:00 - Streaming and trading with $160,000 taken out.
- The speaker admires Matt Miller for his simplicity and ability to push aside criticism while live streaming.
- The speaker is impressed by Matt Miller's ability to take $160,000 out of Apex, a company like Top Step, despite not doing over-the-top things.
56:22 - Day trading strategies and avoiding bias in market analysis.
- Matt Miller is the number one day trader on YouTube, according to the speaker.
- The speaker encourages the listener to focus on what works and not try to do more.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of identifying the smallest threshold of profitability and giving oneself permission to avoid trading during certain days, such as Non Farm Payroll and FOMC events.
- The speaker prioritizes avoiding daily bias during earnings season and focuses on light days, acknowledging the potential for a "wild wheat of trading."
01:02:27 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding market conditions before trading.
- The speaker's risk management strategy involves adjusting leverage and maximum risk based on market conditions.
- ICT emphasizes importance of big rocks (bias indicators) in trading.
01:06:28 - Geopolitical risks impacting currency markets, with potential for bank failures.
- I expect the dollar to appreciate in value due to Middle East tensions, potentially impacting trading.
- ICT warns of impending bank collapse, citing recent failures and market volatility.
01:09:45 - Technical analysis and trading using charts and timeframes.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding risk and the dollar index in trading.
- ICT uses TradingView for chart analysis, but does not receive any compensation for promoting the platform.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of analyzing the dollar index on a monthly chart to understand market trends and make informed trading decisions.
- ICT stresses the need to consider the price delivery continuum when analyzing charts at different timeframes, from the monthly to the 15-second chart.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of identifying bias and trading opportunities on different timeframes.
- ICT teaches how to use the price delivery continuum to identify buying and selling opportunities in real-time.
01:17:33 - Candlestick chart analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT identifies inefficiency in Doppler chart, highlights turning point created by wick.
- ICT identifies key price points for bullish trading based on candlestick patterns.
01:21:11 - Trading and analyzing price movements in the stock market.
- ICT argues that price movements are not random, but rather the result of a small group of winners taking from a large group of losers in a "casino-like" system.
- Trader waits for gamblers to sit at slot machines, then trades based on payout ratio.
01:24:10 - Market manipulation and trading strategies.
- Trader seeks to profit from market manipulation by observing and waiting for price to deliver maximum carnage.
- Trader identifies key moments in the market, including macro events and audience management.
01:27:51 - Technical analysis and trading strategies using monthly charts.
- ICT discusses news driver analysis for price action trading.
- The speaker discusses their trading strategy, including pyramiding entries and managing emotions.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of having a selective process for trading and avoiding losses.
- ICT explains that the price action is in a discount market, with the dollar likely to go higher or lower based on recent developments.
- ICT uses qualitative and quantitative analysis to determine the range of the price action, with equilibrium serving as a key level for determining premium to discount.
01:35:04 - Technical analysis of a stock chart, focusing on a potential buying opportunity.
- ICT expects the market to stay in a discount, potentially leading to a larger, longer-term price run higher.
- ICT identifies untapped opportunity in dollar's range, indicating potential for higher prices.
01:38:41 - Chart analysis and levels, including midpoint and equilibrium.
- ICT explains how to identify key levels of support and resistance in a chart.
01:41:11 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT identifies a potential order block at $105.41, with a low of $105.41 and a close of $105.44.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of focusing on weekly charts for trading decisions, rather than monthly charts.
- ICT explains his trading process, emphasizing rule-based ideas and protocols.
- He wants to teach his student an independent mentality, fostering self-sufficiency.
- ICT highlights the importance of understanding why he makes certain decisions, sharing his thought process to help the student learn and grow.
01:47:55 - Short-term trading opportunities in the forex market, focusing on the dollar index and potential price movements based on economic uncertainty.
- Trader prioritizes focusing on low-hanging fruit near key level.
- ICT discusses short-term scalping opportunities in currencies, highlighting potential drawdowns and uncertainties.
01:52:06 - Using inefficiencies and order blocks to make trading decisions.
- ICT teaches how to identify turning points using inefficiencies and order blocks.
- ICT explains that he wants his algorithm to color outside the lines sometimes, but only in certain instances.
- ICT highlights the importance of the weekly chart inefficiency and how it affects the lower timeframes.
01:56:18 - Trading strategies for the week with a focus on scalping and managing risk.
- ICT: Focused on daily bias, but avoid holding it this week due to impact drivers (news events).
- ICT: Avoiding big plays today, as they'll be reserved for tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
- ICT advises scalping this week due to high volatility and potential one-sidedness.
- Focus on opening range breakout for bullish daily bias, filtering out against it to manage risk.
02:02:06 - Market inefficiency and potential trading opportunities.
- Analyst identifies potential fair value gap on NASDAQ based on economic calendar events.
- ICT expects market to reach midpoint, then potentially resume or consolidate.
02:05:53 - Identifying market trends through analysis of opening prices and order blocks.
- The opening price of an order block is the key crucial point of information for determining the market's direction and speed.
- The location of an order block in market structure will indicate whether it's a target, initial entry, or stop loss placement.
- ICT provides valuable information on order blocks and price delivery.
02:10:11 - Trading strategies using ICT's bias and fair value levels.
- ICT teaches how to trade by practicing price delivery observation.
- Journaling helps traders identify areas for improvement and manage emotions.
- Managing a journal can help traders avoid negative self-talk and identify opportunities for learning.
- The speaker identifies a potential trading opportunity in the E-mini NASDAQ based on a specific price swing and fair value analysis.
- The speaker plans to take a partial position in the upper quadrant of the range, with the potential for further gains if the market closes above the midpoint of the fair value range.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of predetermining target levels for partial and conclusion trades to avoid emotional decision-making during trading.
- ICT demonstrates how to logically frame out low-hanging fruit objectives to maximize profits while minimizing risk.
02:18:23 - Trading strategies and avoiding common mistakes.
- ICT teaches students how to use his terminology correctly, avoiding rebranded bullshit.
- ICT's students are achieving success in the marketplace, attributing their results to his concepts.
- The speaker warns against setting easy objectives without considering the bigger picture, leading to gambling instead of trading.
- Consistency is key to success in trading, with the speaker advocating for a logical model and avoiding social media approval.
02:23:04 - Trading strategies and mindset for success in the financial market.
- ICT advises against rushing to get a funded account, instead advocating for slow and steady progress.
- He emphasizes the importance of being in the trading business for the long term, not just focusing on short-term success.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of following a proven trading process and protocol to achieve success in the market.
- The speaker warns against relying on unproven methods and shortcuts, and instead encourages listeners to focus on developing a long-term trading strategy.
02:28:02 - Personal responsibility and accountability in trading, with emphasis on overcoming emotional biases and consistently applying a proven methodology for profitability
- The trader attributes their success to personal responsibility and accountability, rather than any specific methodology.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of consistency in profitability, rather than relying on a single large payday.
02:36:45 - Stock market analysis and price action with emphasis on NASDAQ and S&P.
- ICT explains the importance of understanding price action and identifying essential information in the early stages of a trade.
- ICT highlights the potential for NASDAQ to trade higher in sympathy with S&P, but warns of potential risks and the need for proper analysis.
02:39:35 - Market structure, seasonality, and bias in trading.
- ICT expects a change in market structure if ES closes above midpoint.
- ICT discusses daily bias, weekly bias, and session bias in trading.
02:42:52 - Trading with bias and managing emotions.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of self-control and maturity in trading, and how it's better to miss out on a trade than to take a risky setup that may not pan out.
- The speaker encourages listeners to filter out unreliable setups and only take trades that they are confident in, rather than blindly following every opportunity.
- Trader discusses importance of protocols and expectations in trading.
- ICT: Down close candles in an up move indicate strength, but excessive ones may signal consolidation or reversal.
- ICT: Respect for stop loss levels is crucial in determining the strength of a price leg or rally, with immediate respect needed after a lackluster candle.
02:50:39 - Trading, personal growth, and the importance of keeping things personal and private.
- ICT shares insights on market analysis and prediction after 6 years of live teaching.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of keeping trading personal and private, rather than trying to impress others.
- The speaker advises against over-leveraging and risking, and instead encourages traders to focus on making tangible progress and spending their profits.
02:54:10 - Using daily bias and order blocks for trading.
- ICT teaches daily bias trading, focusing on setups that fit his risk-on/risk-off criteria.
- ICT analyzes daily chart order blocks to identify potential price targets and areas of inefficiency.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of transposing higher timeframe levels to lower timeframes for more accurate trading.
02:58:20 - Using YouTube live streamers' chat windows for market sentiment analysis.
- The speaker likes using YouTube live streamers' chat windows for market sentiment, as they provide real-time emotional responses that can be used to inform trading decisions.
- The speaker believes that the market sentiment expressed in the chat windows is often more accurate than what professional traders and analysts provide, as it reflects the opinions of individuals who are not trying to be polished or professional.
- I analyze live streamers' emotional responses to identify potential trading opportunities.
03:02:37 - Identifying potential trading opportunities using technical analysis and immediate rebalance.
- Trader identifies potential inefficiency in price action on a 4-hour chart.
- ICT analyzes market behavior to identify potential fair value gaps, which can lead to strong price movements.
- In immediate rebalance situations, ICT looks for a big bullish or bearish candle followed by a retest of the previous candle's high or low, indicating a potential fair value gap.
- ICT explains how to trade based on candle patterns, showing examples in live trading.
03:09:23 - Trading strategies using higher timeframes to enter trades.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of using the 15-minute and hourly charts for trading, citing his quick decision-making mechanism and preference for more frequent trades.
- ICT highlights the significance of the blue line on the daily order block, which represents the opening price and is not a random level, but rather a specific price level that changes the state of delivery.
- ICT: Missing trades by not transposing levels to lower timeframes can result in missed opportunities.
- ICT: Entering trades based on high-frequency trading algorithms can help avoid chasing moves.
03:14:20 - Technical analysis and trading strategies using order blocks and price action signatures.
- ICT identifies bullish breaker at daily opening price, reaching for opposing side of inefficiency.
- ICT explains how to identify a bullish order block by analyzing the price action and order flow.
03:18:45 - Technical analysis and trading strategies in the stock market.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics and entry points.
- ICT discusses the importance of measuring gaps in technical analysis, highlighting their potential for identifying bullish price runs.
- ICT compares trading to hyperspace travel, emphasizing the importance of being part of trades that take off quickly and efficiently.
- ICT wants immediate feedback and handshake to profitability, not wasting time.
- ICT teaches traders to look for specific visual setups, such as a bull flag or fair value gap.
- ICT takes partial profits as soon as momentum wanes after a run, scaling out of the trade.
03:26:37 - Trading and overcoming personal doubts.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of confidence in trading, citing his own success as an example.
- ICT encourages listeners to ignore doubters and focus on their own growth and success.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of overcoming personal doubts and uncertainties to succeed in trading.
- The speaker encourages listeners to focus on learning and improving their processes, rather than getting distracted by external factors.
03:30:53 - Analyzing price levels and identifying potential trading opportunities using PD arrays.
- ICT identifies liquidity pools and price levels for potential trading opportunities.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding price dynamics in the cryptocurrency market.
03:34:04 - Trading fair value gaps in cryptocurrency with emphasis on entry and risk management.
- ICT explains how to identify a fair value gap entry point in a candle chart, using the 5-minute chart as an example.
- ICT provides a framework for calculating the risk and entry size based on the low of the previous candle, with a risk parameter of 1%.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of managing risk and not demanding perfect entries or exits.
- ICT advises against trying to capture every possible profit opportunity, instead focusing on logical and manageable risk management.
03:39:53 - Ignoring unrealistic expectations and focusing on the basics for profitability.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of a solid foundation and process for success, rather than relying on luck or shortcuts.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of not trying to convince others of the truth, especially when they are unwilling to listen or do their own research.
03:43:16 - Trading and market manipulation.
- ICT argues that stop loss use is inevitable in trading due to greed.
- ICT argues that markets are manipulated and controlled, with traders chasing short-term gains while ignoring long-term opportunities.
03:46:16 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- ICT highlights the tendency for new traders to give away profitable days by continuing to trade, despite the potential for losses.
- The opening gap can act as a target, entry, or buffer for a stop loss, making it a risky location for placing stops.
- Placing stops inside a new day or week opening gap can lead to stop loss orders being hit, resulting in losses.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of self-approval and inner motivation in trading, rather than seeking external validation.
- The speaker warns against getting caught up in unnecessary chatter and comparisons, instead focusing on personal growth and results.
03:52:37 - Trading, risk management, and ego management.
- ICT advises against comparing oneself to others and instead emphasizes the importance of focusing on one's own progress and results.
- The speaker is resisting the urge to respond to comments and engage with the audience, instead choosing to prioritize their own goals and objectives.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of owning up to losses and not making excuses in trading.
03:56:35 - Stock market analysis with mentions of candlesticks and Middle East events.
- ICT predicts dollar drop on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday with confidence, except for potential Middle East-inspired events.
03:57:49 - Trading strategies using fair value gaps and order blocks.
- Ideal entries are at fair value gaps or bullish blocks (ICT)
- Look for inefficiencies in the upper half for buying pressure (ICT)
- Unknown Speaker discusses trading basics, including order blocks and stop losses.
- Speaker addresses common complaints from students, including lack of content.
- ICT is looking for setups like the one in the daily chart, where the low of the candlestick is used as the entry point.
- The stop loss is placed at the body or low of the candlestick, depending on risk tolerance.
04:06:20 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of managing risk and not trying to squeeze every possible outcome in trading.
- The speaker shares their personal experience of quitting dozens of times but eventually learning how to trade properly.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of finding low-hanging fruit in trading, rather than trying to pick the low or high of the day.
- The speaker encourages traders to be content with small profits and avoid overthinking or second-guessing their trades.
04:10:46 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- Trader discusses market analysis and trading strategies with a focus on price action.
04:13:05 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- The speaker discusses the importance of identifying highs and lows in a candlestick chart to make informed trading decisions.
- The speaker highlights the inefficiency in the market and how it can be used to their advantage by identifying and trading on the separation between the high and low of a candle.
- The speaker discusses trading strategies using runners, including taking profits at defined levels or managing stop losses to maximize gains.
- The speaker highlights the importance of identifying fair value gaps and managing stop losses to avoid entering a realm where the market can retrace.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of managing expectations and staying within a bias in trading.
- ICT encourages viewers to give feedback through thumbs up or thumbs down to show appreciation or lack thereof for the content.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:01:36 --> 00:01:49 | ICT: Good morning. Good morning. Good morning. It is a good morning. So Happy Monday to y'all. So, as you can tell, I've got a little bit of an itch, I got to |
| 2 | 00:01:49 --> 00:02:04 | take care of some desire to the jawbone a little bit. So I figured I'd lend my time since it was made available for the next couple days, today, tomorrow, and |
| 3 | 00:02:04 --> 00:02:18 | Wednesday, we will be live streaming for four hours, so 8am to noon. Today will be the introduction kind of like a relaxed discussion over a tape reading on |
| 4 | 00:02:19 --> 00:02:33 | talk about certain points that are going to be salient tomorrow and Wednesday. My goal is to kind of like present a nuts, the bolts approach to bias and the |
| 5 | 00:02:33 --> 00:02:45 | lack thereof. Because that is the number one question I get predominantly in either emails, messages through trading view, or on comments on Twitter, |
| 6 | 00:02:45 --> 00:02:55 | comments on my videos. Michael, could you just please teach me how to determine the bias, okay, and we're gonna talk about several forms of bias, when to look |
| 7 | 00:02:55 --> 00:03:06 | at one and when not to consider it so much. So it's kind of like the audio book version of the chapter that will be in my book. And yes, they're on their way. |
| 8 | 00:03:06 --> 00:03:20 | Okay, I'm not in control of when they get disseminated. But they're on their way. But this is gonna like be three days worth, or 12 hours worth of audio |
| 9 | 00:03:20 --> 00:03:29 | commentary directly from me. And it'll be used over the scope of real live price action, which is not something that is communicated effectively, in my opinion, |
| 10 | 00:03:30 --> 00:03:39 | when you're dealing with a book, okay, because invariably, if you if you buy a book, and you look at it with read my books, or anyone else's books, and I can |
| 11 | 00:03:39 --> 00:03:50 | testify that this is true for me as well. When you when you look at a static image, or static images, and a concept is being promoted or suggested as being |
| 12 | 00:03:50 --> 00:04:02 | viable, it's hard to garner the confidence in it. When you're just looking at something it's already happened. Okay? So that's the reason why I like to go |
| 13 | 00:04:02 --> 00:04:12 | over live price action with the smallest of timeframes, because it proves number one, efficiency, it proves the understanding that the logic is really there. |
| 14 | 00:04:12 --> 00:04:20 | It's not contrived. It's not a conjecture. It's something that really is there. It can be measured in terms of a daily experience that you what you see me do |
| 15 | 00:04:20 --> 00:04:31 | today, tomorrow, and on Wednesday, this is what you should be doing, regardless of where you are in your prowess, skill, set, experience, whatever. Before I |
| 16 | 00:04:31 --> 00:04:43 | start, okay, because I kind of want to go right into some of the things but I would have to have a little bit of a preamble here. It's important to know, if |
| 17 | 00:04:43 --> 00:04:53 | you cannot grasp from your analysis, and I'm going to show you what I do every single day. Okay. I'm going to talk about what I do on the weekends. But then |
| 18 | 00:04:53 --> 00:05:03 | I'm going to show you what it is I'm looking at before 830 And then what I'm looking for or what I'm anticipating between 830 and 930, when the equities |
| 19 | 00:05:03 --> 00:05:16 | market opens up? What things I'm considering? How much weight or emphasis do I place on one thing? Or a few things? And not so much on others? Okay, so it kind |
| 20 | 00:05:16 --> 00:05:25 | of like gives you the practical, this is what I do. This is how I determine what it is I'm expecting in terms of price action, whether there's a bias that should |
| 21 | 00:05:25 --> 00:05:34 | be considered for that trading day, or that session or that week? Or should I trade without a bias? So I'm going to teach you how to do both of those this |
| 22 | 00:05:34 --> 00:05:45 | week, okay. I can't promise that I'm going to cover everything that's going to scratch every itch that you have about it, but that's okay. Because I will leave |
| 23 | 00:05:45 --> 00:05:59 | a post Wednesday evening on my community tab on my YouTube channel, saying, if you have something that it didn't address, or answer, I guess, sufficiently |
| 24 | 00:05:59 --> 00:06:09 | enough for you. It's kinda like a suggestion box for you to leave a comment and I see every comment, you see your own comment. But I see every comment that |
| 25 | 00:06:09 --> 00:06:17 | comes. So if it's something that you want me to touch on, as a later discussion, or whatever, if we do a live tape reading session, again, beyond this week, |
| 26 | 00:06:17 --> 00:06:27 | what's what I'm certain we will all kind of like, bring that into the conversation and kind of address it, okay, that's usually how I do things. But |
| 27 | 00:06:27 --> 00:06:34 | the impatient folks, they want everything right now, because they have a tick tock mentality, give it to me in 30 seconds, or being worth listening to. And if |
| 28 | 00:06:34 --> 00:06:41 | that's what your mindset is, it's probably not going to be good for you. So this is for people that really want to learn how to do this independently, not have |
| 29 | 00:06:41 --> 00:06:50 | to watch other YouTubers, me included, not to buy courses, not to buy books not to buy any of those things. So I want you to know, while my books are coming, |
| 30 | 00:06:51 --> 00:06:58 | you don't need to buy them. Okay, in fact, you probably shouldn't buy them. But it's for people to know that all these concepts were authored by me. And that's |
| 31 | 00:06:58 --> 00:07:09 | the only reason why I'm doing it. These three days are going to be the better version of what I'm going to say in the chapter about bias, because you're going |
| 32 | 00:07:09 --> 00:07:18 | to see it, you're going to see it explained, you're going to see me outline what it is that's important, and and how you can begin the study of learning how to |
| 33 | 00:07:18 --> 00:07:30 | do it on your own. But also, I'm going to untether the necessity for you to have a bias. Okay. In the beginning, I think it's important for a trader that has |
| 34 | 00:07:30 --> 00:07:39 | next to no experience. Or if you're someone that has been hit and miss with your results, sometimes you can get lucky and get a you know, a profitable week or a |
| 35 | 00:07:39 --> 00:07:50 | profitable month, it may be a short span of time that you aren't able to trade correctly. And therefore see profits increase in your your equity. But then |
| 36 | 00:07:50 --> 00:07:59 | something happens and you unravel, and you lose and it goes into a tailspin and you lose all your progress. I'll dress a lot of that on Wednesday. And I'll also |
| 37 | 00:07:59 --> 00:08:09 | cover on Wednesday how to hold on to trades. And trust what it is I've taught today on and on Tuesday and what I will close with on Wednesday. So it'll help |
| 38 | 00:08:09 --> 00:08:19 | you understand why you shouldn't be afraid, okay, and how to overcome that, and how to manage all those things. Using price action and not having a whole lot of |
| 39 | 00:08:19 --> 00:08:28 | necessity on I have to know what the high of the day is. I have to know what the low of the day is. You don't you don't need to know that. Okay. So first and |
| 40 | 00:08:28 --> 00:08:35 | foremost, let's get into it. I mean, just post one more time, I want you to see the risk disclaimer because I'm somebody who just showed up a little bit late. |
| 41 | 00:08:49 --> 00:08:57 | Alright, so I had to toss that in there. What's more, going to someone you're like, Okay, I'm gonna get in here and trade on everything he says today. So when |
| 42 | 00:08:57 --> 00:09:09 | we're determining or when I'm specifically working on a bias, I like to build that idea ahead of the Sunday opening. Okay, so whether it be Friday evening, or |
| 43 | 00:09:09 --> 00:09:17 | whether it be Saturday, during the day or early Sunday morning, whenever my free time is available, because my wife and family kinda like dictate everything now. |
| 44 | 00:09:17 --> 00:09:27 | So I have to find time for this stuff on the weekend. But whatever time it is, it's usually about 30 minutes. It takes me about 30 minutes to go through all |
| 45 | 00:09:27 --> 00:09:38 | the major markets. And the first and foremost thing I'd like to look at is where we are in terms of seasonal tendencies. Okay, so in my opinion, seasonal |
| 46 | 00:09:38 --> 00:09:50 | tendencies are best determined by Steve Moore. Okay, see, I don't this is not a paid advertisement. I've said this in my mentorship videos as well. Steve Moore |
| 47 | 00:09:50 --> 00:09:58 | probably heard about me because I've been repping his stuff since 1995. And I have a little bit larger audience now. So when I say this is a resource I |
| 48 | 00:09:58 --> 00:10:06 | believe in this is a resource I use, he does not give me anything, I don't get a kickback. I didn't ask for a kickback. I have no affiliation with any company. I |
| 49 | 00:10:06 --> 00:10:13 | don't have any kind of affiliate links. I don't do any stuff. So when I share my opinion, it's raw, it's real. And I don't care if the people like or don't like |
| 50 | 00:10:13 --> 00:10:22 | it. It's something that I either I use, or I don't, I don't have a use for it. Okay. But one of the best tools that has served me well, in my analysis for over |
| 51 | 00:10:22 --> 00:10:36 | 32 years coming November, this tool, this resource of understanding the roadmap of what usually not always, but usually happens in the marketplace, is a |
| 52 | 00:10:36 --> 00:10:47 | seasonal tendency. Now, Larry Williams was the first one ever wrote a book about it and put it in publication. And I think if I'm correct in my title, no, not my |
| 53 | 00:10:47 --> 00:10:54 | title, title, shorting commodity trading season 20, something that something that effect, it's a little misleading, I think, in terms of the title, but you |
| 54 | 00:10:54 --> 00:11:02 | know, everybody does clickbait titles on your videos now. So he was like, using click big back then. But some of those seasonal tendencies were like bangers |
| 55 | 00:11:02 --> 00:11:13 | like real easy, real simple stuff. But some of those markets don't even trade anymore. For instance, like pork bellies, and egg futures, okay. But eventually, |
| 56 | 00:11:13 --> 00:11:21 | over time, there was individuals like Jake Bernstein, he had a big run with seasonal tendencies. And I've never subscribed to his stuff, not to be |
| 57 | 00:11:21 --> 00:11:27 | disrespectful to him. But Larry had a lot of affinity for him. And it may be just a partnership that they had at that time. And maybe it was a real good |
| 58 | 00:11:27 --> 00:11:38 | friendship and be still with I don't know, but I didn't have any confidence in his work with seasonal tendencies. And that might be met with opposition for |
| 59 | 00:11:38 --> 00:11:44 | people that like me, as a dinosaur. I've been here for a long time dealing with these markets, and maybe you had success with it, maybe you learn something from |
| 60 | 00:11:44 --> 00:11:51 | it. And that's fine. I'm not trying to disparage anyone to not look at his stuff, but you're watching my video, and you're watching my live stream. So |
| 61 | 00:11:51 --> 00:12:02 | you're kind of like here to get my opinion, or what my take is on something. My opinion, the pentacle of the seasonal tendency market, the person that has the |
| 62 | 00:12:02 --> 00:12:18 | best product is the more and you can do a search on his website. And he doesn't ask a whole lot in terms of, you know, what it costs to get the information. But |
| 63 | 00:12:19 --> 00:12:29 | these things, these graphs, he'll show multi year seasonal tendencies. And I used one of them, the eighth of this month, when we did our live stream, I |
| 64 | 00:12:29 --> 00:12:39 | explained to you, and I'll kind of like, go back over what it was I was referring to, but you can go back and look at the April 8 livestream, where I |
| 65 | 00:12:39 --> 00:12:49 | explained how we're going to be seeing several 100 handles, lower in the stock indices. And you've seen it in your chart. If you haven't noticed that you might |
| 66 | 00:12:49 --> 00:12:58 | want to look at it. But seasonal tendencies are the first thing that I consider. And I usually refer to them on a weekly basis, I want to see where we're at and |
| 67 | 00:12:58 --> 00:13:06 | what I'm looking for. And you're probably like asking, why don't I show a seasonal tendency chart, because I want you to go look at his free samples. |
| 68 | 00:13:07 --> 00:13:15 | Okay, look at a free sample. And that's what he offers. And there's a lot more that he offers, but I don't use that I just look at his seasonal seasonal |
| 69 | 00:13:15 --> 00:13:26 | tendency over the view of the multi year overlay. So what he'll do is I'll compare, say 15 years of what price has done for any given market, and then |
| 70 | 00:13:26 --> 00:13:37 | he'll compare it with a longer sample set. So what I like to look for is where there are two sample sets of time, where he's measured the fluctuation of price. |
| 71 | 00:13:37 --> 00:13:46 | And if there's a period throughout the calendar year, where both of those measurements, and it kinda looks like two moving averages that are like moving |
| 72 | 00:13:46 --> 00:13:54 | along on this graph. And some of you're mad right now, like, I wish you would just show a champ chart, I don't want to do that I want you to investigate |
| 73 | 00:13:54 --> 00:14:04 | yourself. And it's free to go look at his samples. But I show you a lot of those in the mentorship videos, and I'm repping him then I'm telling you go use his |
| 74 | 00:14:04 --> 00:14:13 | resources. And because I don't get paid for it, and because I actually use it, I've actually made real money with it lots of real money. It's not something |
| 75 | 00:14:13 --> 00:14:25 | that is a conjecture, like to say it's not something that is opinion, if you know that where you live, and the weather patterns suggest that something may or |
| 76 | 00:14:25 --> 00:14:35 | may not happen during the weather cycle. Like for instance, we're, we're in May, in this week, coming this week, we will be entering the month of May. When we |
| 77 | 00:14:35 --> 00:14:45 | get into the month of July where I live in Maryland, East Coast of us it's highly unlikely that we're going to see snow or a blizzard in July. So that's |
| 78 | 00:14:45 --> 00:14:56 | that's a seasonal tendency. That's a pretty strong seasonal tendency. Now, how about right now could it snow technically in April? It could and it has. We've |
| 79 | 00:14:56 --> 00:15:06 | had blizzards in April and Maryland. So That would be an example of seasonal tendency where maybe one period of time where he's measured the seasonal |
| 80 | 00:15:06 --> 00:15:17 | tendencies, it may have gone up for a few weeks, and then a longer, longer term view of what a market has done seasonally, it may have done the opposite. I |
| 81 | 00:15:17 --> 00:15:25 | don't like to trade those. I liked the fine, and it's not a lot of them that occurs. So there's like this little sweet spot in the year, I look for the best |
| 82 | 00:15:25 --> 00:15:37 | period of time in the spring. And I look for the best period of time in the fall, because what I've done is I've cherry picked the very best of the best |
| 83 | 00:15:37 --> 00:15:46 | times the trade, because the spring season and the fall season, that's your turning points on a higher timeframe, monthly and weekly and daily charts. Don't |
| 84 | 00:15:46 --> 00:15:53 | take my word for that. And it probably didn't went right over your head. But that's the part where you should be writing down your notes, okay? Because if |
| 85 | 00:15:53 --> 00:16:00 | you're going to be a long term position trader, or you want to have a long term bias, those turning points, they're like the book ends, okay, they're the |
| 86 | 00:16:00 --> 00:16:15 | parameters for the big, huge runs every single calendar year are usually boxed in by the extreme high or low of those two time periods. Okay, so my emphasis is |
| 87 | 00:16:15 --> 00:16:26 | focusing on markets that I typically trade, which is index futures, bond futures. And I moved away from Forex, but you can trade currency futures, like |
| 88 | 00:16:26 --> 00:16:34 | if you don't want to be in forex anymore. You can trade currency futures. And it's, it's the same thing. But there's a slight little advantage to creating |
| 89 | 00:16:34 --> 00:16:44 | index funds or index futures, because they're a little bit more liquid. And they have a whole lot more smaller intraday setups. And we'll talk about that real |
| 90 | 00:16:44 --> 00:16:58 | time today, where I'll touch on not having to have a bias and how can, how can you grind out an income, okay, without a bias? Because if I had to be asked what |
| 91 | 00:16:58 --> 00:17:07 | my opinion was, the audience listening today, or that audience that will watch this video or the series of videos that we're doing, the common denominator |
| 92 | 00:17:07 --> 00:17:15 | would be is you're not either confident in knowing what the bias is, and what is bias, it's where you think the largest probability of movement is going to be, |
| 93 | 00:17:15 --> 00:17:24 | you're not trying to predict the closing price. You're not trying to predict high or low the day. That's, it's, it's distinct from what we're talking about |
| 94 | 00:17:24 --> 00:17:31 | today. You don't need to know those things. There's things that determine that I taught that in mentorship videos on this YouTube channel for free, you don't |
| 95 | 00:17:31 --> 00:17:37 | have to pay for it. You don't have to go to other YouTube channels that are trying to hawk my stuff and sell it your fourth you buy that? Okay, because it's |
| 96 | 00:17:37 --> 00:17:38 | here for free. |
| 97 | 00:17:39 --> 00:17:40 | If you |
| 98 | 00:17:42 --> 00:17:56 | can focus on the spring and fall session, and anticipate directional runs, that lasts for weeks to months. It's not always a straight shot from a Spring High to |
| 99 | 00:17:56 --> 00:18:07 | follow, but predominantly it is. And again, that's the part where you're supposed to write that down. So what happens if you are in a market environment |
| 100 | 00:18:07 --> 00:18:19 | that's bearish? Wow, you really have a loaded deal. Because in spring, what is spring, April, May? Okay, April, May, there's this transition that will send the |
| 101 | 00:18:19 --> 00:18:31 | markets lower and going down into the late summer weeks or months into September, October, and as late as the first week of November. But very rarely |
| 102 | 00:18:31 --> 00:18:41 | does it? Do its turning point in November, usually, you'll see the turn between the last week of August, and the second week of October. And that's usually the |
| 103 | 00:18:41 --> 00:18:52 | low of the year. That's not 100% always happening. But that is how I look at the market every single year I go in with expecting that to unfold. And then what I |
| 104 | 00:18:52 --> 00:19:03 | do is I look at the details that the markets actually showing me day by day intraday week by week, how are we behaving? How are we anticipating these |
| 105 | 00:19:04 --> 00:19:14 | targets? Are they are they still probable? Are we still likely to trade lower with that mindset. Now what happens when you're in a very strong bull market |
| 106 | 00:19:14 --> 00:19:26 | condition like we've been for several years now, that means that the spring highs can tend to be quick and sudden initially, and then it can go consolidated |
| 107 | 00:19:26 --> 00:19:38 | a little bit and then slowly drift down or because now it's a presidential election year in the US. Those spring highs down the fall lows don't tend to be |
| 108 | 00:19:38 --> 00:19:48 | as crisp or pristine in price. It's a little bit muddy and sometimes it can be altogether rejected. And there's just a short term drop in the spring months. |
| 109 | 00:19:48 --> 00:19:59 | And then when we get to mid May or first week of June, we take off and we start going higher and we don't even try to do anything going into lower extremes for |
| 110 | 00:19:59 --> 00:20:09 | them. Summer months and Ork making a low in the fall, there will be likely below that forms in the fall. Any environment, whether it be a bearish market or a |
| 111 | 00:20:09 --> 00:20:19 | bullish market is a very strong tendency for the market to create very easy, long positions, opportunities to see the market rally and may be short lived. |
| 112 | 00:20:19 --> 00:20:29 | But trading in September, October in the first two weeks of November, being a long holder looking for long's that is like some of the easiest stuff you'll |
| 113 | 00:20:29 --> 00:20:40 | ever do as a trader. Like it's like easy money, it's easy opportunity. It's easy, easy, everybody stuff. If they just filtered out how to be a buyer only |
| 114 | 00:20:40 --> 00:20:47 | during that period, chances are your probabilities will now shift in your favor if you hadn't been doing it. But the problem is, is everybody looks at the chart |
| 115 | 00:20:47 --> 00:20:57 | and they think trend is friend. But it's not the end. So I like to look at those two extremes of the year so that way we know now the highest form of determining |
| 116 | 00:20:57 --> 00:21:06 | bias, I gave it to you for the full year. How do we how do we anticipate power three, which is the accumulation of information, this distribution of price |
| 117 | 00:21:06 --> 00:21:15 | action on any given timeframe. It's on every timeframe. It's on second charts, one minute charts, 15 minute charts all the way up to whatever timeframe you |
| 118 | 00:21:15 --> 00:21:26 | want to create in trading you, you can create your own unique, customized timeframe. And that's one of the benefits of having a platform. That's not one |
| 119 | 00:21:26 --> 00:21:33 | trick pony, only you can create your own timeframes. If you want to look at an 18 minute chart, you can create that it's a custom timeframe that you can |
| 120 | 00:21:33 --> 00:21:43 | create. So and we'll talk a little bit about that on Wednesday how to how to go through and look inside price. Without the typical perspective that's usually |
| 121 | 00:21:43 --> 00:21:54 | seen in even in my like the early lessons and the elementary lessons that I have on my YouTube channel or have done in the past. Where I look at specific, |
| 122 | 00:21:54 --> 00:22:06 | canned, or pre selected timeframes. I only did that because it's easy to teach a group a large group of people, if we all start with the same baseline, and then |
| 123 | 00:22:06 --> 00:22:17 | we can obviously build upon that. But after looking at seasonal tendencies, and looking for times when a market that I'm interested in trading has both the |
| 124 | 00:22:17 --> 00:22:27 | longer term and intermediate term seasonal tendencies agreeing and what does that mean? Steve Moore has the graphs that show over a calendar year, the |
| 125 | 00:22:27 --> 00:22:38 | movement generalized of what the market would likely do any given time, over that calendar year, I want both the long long term and the intermediate term |
| 126 | 00:22:38 --> 00:22:50 | seasonal tendency to be moving in the same direction between one time of the year may begin at a specific month, it may begin halfway between the beginning |
| 127 | 00:22:50 --> 00:23:01 | and end of a particular month. And I mentioned on April 8 In our live stream, I said I'm anticipating the market to move lower several 100 handles not 10 |
| 128 | 00:23:01 --> 00:23:11 | handles, not 25 handles, not 30 and 50, I want to see hundreds of handles, okay. And now just because we have a seasonal tendency there, that doesn't mean you |
| 129 | 00:23:11 --> 00:23:19 | it's a green light go, Okay, it's Monday now I've been waiting all weekend to trade doesn't mean that I can start doing something right away. You have to go |
| 130 | 00:23:19 --> 00:23:29 | in and anticipate price presenting these opportunities. And other things have to compound as a confirmation. what it is you're looking for is really there. And |
| 131 | 00:23:29 --> 00:23:38 | you're not just trying to force your will on it, because you can still fall victim to your own will, if you force it, because the market doesn't really care |
| 132 | 00:23:38 --> 00:23:47 | too much about what you think or what I think it's going to do what it's going to do. And it's our job as an analyst to get in sync with what it's likely to |
| 133 | 00:23:47 --> 00:23:57 | do. And that analyst aspect is not trading it. Okay, you have to, you have to be able to see things for what it is what is likely to pan out, and then over a |
| 134 | 00:23:57 --> 00:24:05 | period of time doing it months, if not at least a year. It's why I teach everyone that's learning from me should expect to invest a full year minimum, |
| 135 | 00:24:05 --> 00:24:13 | because you're not going to get the full picture. You won't you won't even appreciate what I've already said right now. And you'll turn off the stream or |
| 136 | 00:24:13 --> 00:24:19 | you'll go do something else. And you'll you'll fail, because you haven't considered the very few things I've already covered here that are paramount. |
| 137 | 00:24:20 --> 00:24:26 | That's how I feel confident when I was going on Twitter and telling you minute by minute where the next game that was going to build and follow this and follow |
| 138 | 00:24:26 --> 00:24:36 | that. Because it's based on those time periods where the seasonal tendency was in agreement. The market structure was in agreement, I understood the probable |
| 139 | 00:24:36 --> 00:24:44 | narrative. And we're going to talk a little bit about narrative tomorrow. The idea of how all this stuff blends together. It's real hard to be anxious. When |
| 140 | 00:24:44 --> 00:24:51 | you have a firm grasp on all all these components. It doesn't mean that you're going to be 100% accurate doesn't mean you're going to be without a losing |
| 141 | 00:24:51 --> 00:24:59 | trade. It doesn't mean that you won't have drawdown in your trade. It just means that you won't be shaken out of your trade. And if you do get stopped out it |
| 142 | 00:24:59 --> 00:25:08 | won't change Your approach to using this information that's maturity. And it's hard to be mature in the beginning, when you don't have any idea what it is you |
| 143 | 00:25:08 --> 00:25:15 | should be doing, you're jumping from one method to the next one guru to the next one video of mine or one video series, thinking one's going to be better than |
| 144 | 00:25:15 --> 00:25:25 | the other. There isn't any one better video, there isn't any one better series, it's a starting point. And then go through the content because I always pull in |
| 145 | 00:25:25 --> 00:25:32 | all this stuff. Eventually, given enough time, you'll hear me talk about things I've talked about, very infrequently. But still, they're essential. But my |
| 146 | 00:25:32 --> 00:25:41 | assume my assumptions are is you've taken notes and you understand that component. So with seasonal tendencies aside, the next thing I look at is the |
| 147 | 00:25:41 --> 00:25:52 | economic calendar. So this is an example of it here is the Forex factory calendar. And if you're a forex trader, you'd obviously have things toggled for |
| 148 | 00:25:53 --> 00:26:02 | those currencies. Right now, I only have it set up for us. And these are the settings here, I don't usually look at the yellow, which is a low impact news |
| 149 | 00:26:02 --> 00:26:11 | driver, I don't care too much about that. I want the orange versus medium impact. And in the high impact. If you're a trader, for forex, you would toggle |
| 150 | 00:26:11 --> 00:26:18 | the pairs that you're interested in trading, you don't need to talk all of them, okay, you don't want to dilute your attention, you want to keep everything |
| 151 | 00:26:18 --> 00:26:27 | focused. And once you have that, then you can look at your into your full week here. So you can see on Monday, today, we have nothing really, in terms of forex |
| 152 | 00:26:27 --> 00:26:41 | factory, there are some events that you can see on econo day. Okay, Canada is another calendar that is more equities specific. And it's to me, if you really |
| 153 | 00:26:41 --> 00:26:51 | want to be a perfectionist, that's the calendar you want to look at. But in terms of teaching individuals that have a very low experience, or just just |
| 154 | 00:26:51 --> 00:27:00 | coming into understanding the markets or being interested in them, this is a calendar, it's very easy on the eye, it's easy to manage, it's easy to see the |
| 155 | 00:27:00 --> 00:27:11 | big triggers for when the markets will likely see some kind of excitement. Okay. And that excitement is what we call manipulation. Many times during the times of |
| 156 | 00:27:11 --> 00:27:15 | these reports, like tomorrow, we have 8:30am, the employment cost index, |
| 157 | 00:27:16 --> 00:27:28 | I don't ever consider the data, I could care less about these these data points, because these are just excuses for them to msa them. It's those individuals that |
| 158 | 00:27:28 --> 00:27:35 | are in control the marketplace, just like out in Las Vegas when you go to these casinos and they give you the three room that comp you free dinner free you |
| 159 | 00:27:35 --> 00:27:44 | events, magic show comedian show, they'll give you all that stuff, because they know if they can get you in the casino, given enough time you're going to pay |
| 160 | 00:27:44 --> 00:27:56 | them, you're going to lose your money. So these are like scheduled events where you're going to have the opportunity to lay your money down and leave it there |
| 161 | 00:27:56 --> 00:28:08 | and go home without it. We call that a loss. Okay, but a newbie or an inexperienced trader, they they see it as they got me or that Guru taught me |
| 162 | 00:28:08 --> 00:28:17 | something that doesn't work, when really what they're doing is and you know, this is truth. You see these big events, you hear other people talk about how |
| 163 | 00:28:17 --> 00:28:27 | there's gonna be a lot of movement, and you think I could make a lot of money? You could you could also blow your account on that one trade. Don't believe me? |
| 164 | 00:28:27 --> 00:28:42 | Try to trade CPI or ppi. It's gone. So when we're looking at this, this the timing aspect, I'm anticipating some measure of manipulation. Okay. So what I |
| 165 | 00:28:42 --> 00:28:52 | like to do, and this helps build, not kind of like introduce the idea of narrative building here. I like to look at what price is done right before these |
| 166 | 00:28:52 --> 00:29:05 | scheduled time events where the economic calendar will produce the data and present it to the public. Okay. Individuals that are in better positions. For |
| 167 | 00:29:05 --> 00:29:13 | information sake, they have the ability, much like politicians today, nobody wants to be a politician to turn things around. But they want to be a politician |
| 168 | 00:29:13 --> 00:29:21 | because they have advantage. They have information before the public gets it. And they can go in thinking about their stock options. And people that make |
| 169 | 00:29:21 --> 00:29:31 | 200,000 houses, senators, all of a sudden, they're multimillionaires in a year or two. And there you go. So they're smart money that has the advantage of |
| 170 | 00:29:31 --> 00:29:41 | knowing what these drivers are going to be like, real time. And it's not to say that these events and the data that is released at the time and or the initial |
| 171 | 00:29:41 --> 00:29:48 | move that occurs at the time that the report comes out. It doesn't mean that that's the right move. It doesn't mean that that's that's the move that's going |
| 172 | 00:29:48 --> 00:29:56 | to be sustained. It's going to keep moving in direction many times and this is really what I'm looking for. I'm looking for these opportunities where I have a |
| 173 | 00:29:56 --> 00:30:07 | seasonal tendency in mind that I have a long term macro directional bias. Because if you can trade in that, that right there will filter a lot of your |
| 174 | 00:30:07 --> 00:30:19 | losing setups out of your, your results, which is something that you should do a lot of work to try to do. Versus, I'm going to open up a chart on a one minute |
| 175 | 00:30:19 --> 00:30:28 | chart because I see T students, we all trade one minute or less. And that's where Smart Money trades. Smart Money does not trade on one minute charts. Okay? |
| 176 | 00:30:28 --> 00:30:38 | They don't do that. Smart Money trades on monthly, weekly and daily charts, because they can't move billions of dollars on a fluctuation on a one minute |
| 177 | 00:30:38 --> 00:30:47 | chart or a 15 second chart or a 32nd chart, but you're not trading the volume that they're trying to push into the marketplace. So you have the advantage |
| 178 | 00:30:48 --> 00:31:00 | being a small fish in this big ocean, where you can go in and place a trade in very small ultra short term timeframes. And capitalize on that and make 10 15% |
| 179 | 00:31:00 --> 00:31:10 | in a day. And over time that compounds and then eventually you get to a trader size where you're doing reportable trades where every every commodity or every |
| 180 | 00:31:10 --> 00:31:18 | market has a reportable threshold when you start trading certain number of contracts that you they have to be reported. You're counted in the CBOT, then |
| 181 | 00:31:19 --> 00:31:28 | that commitment traders report your trades would eventually be a part of those numbers. But when you're not, you're still considered a small fry. Okay, and you |
| 182 | 00:31:28 --> 00:31:38 | can be trading lots and lots of contracts, but still be considered by definition in terms of commitment traders still be a small trader of small speculator. So I |
| 183 | 00:31:38 --> 00:31:49 | like to look for those periods right before the time of the economic report coming out that I anticipate that economic report being a Judas swing, a judo |
| 184 | 00:31:49 --> 00:31:59 | swing is a fake run, it's a price run, it's quick, it's sudden, it's explosive, it runs directly into a pool of liquidity. That means above a high or relatively |
| 185 | 00:31:59 --> 00:32:09 | equal highs for buy side, or it reaches up into a fair value gap, which would be in many instances a city of cells out of balance by sudden efficiency. So it |
| 186 | 00:32:09 --> 00:32:19 | down close inefficiency. Those are the two things I'm looking for if I'm bearish. Now how do I know which one's going to happen? How do you know ICT, |
| 187 | 00:32:19 --> 00:32:25 | which one is going to do? Well, if there's no inefficiency, what's it going to do, it's going to run through the high or a group of highs, it could be three |
| 188 | 00:32:25 --> 00:32:34 | clustered highs and relatives, same price area, I'm going to pick the highest one, and I'm gonna see does it want to reach there, if it reaches towards it, |
| 189 | 00:32:34 --> 00:32:41 | but fall short of the highest one of them, the relative equal or if there's like three of them there. If it doesn't run the highest one, and it starts to drop, I |
| 190 | 00:32:41 --> 00:32:51 | don't trust that drop that usually many times a trap, where they'll then pump it one more time, run that one, take the higher high out then then the break |
| 191 | 00:32:51 --> 00:33:00 | constructure after that, and when it moves lower, then I'll be all over that like white on rice, selling short. But that's given, I'm gonna seasonal |
| 192 | 00:33:00 --> 00:33:09 | tendencies bearish, I have a weekly range that's likely to reach for something and I'm gonna cover that part today. But I want to give you these, these are the |
| 193 | 00:33:09 --> 00:33:18 | points that imagine he trying to describe this in just text form in the book, it doesn't hit the same, and you won't even read that chapter, it'll just be like, |
| 194 | 00:33:18 --> 00:33:29 | Well, I'm gonna go to where the pictures are. And this is a stuff that filters out all of the majority of why losing traders lose so much, because they don't |
| 195 | 00:33:29 --> 00:33:38 | factor these types of things in. So what I'm saying is, is if I have a seasonal tendency, this I'm bearish, then I have a expectation that the market is going |
| 196 | 00:33:38 --> 00:33:48 | to introduce volatility. And that's what this calendar does. It tells me like a TV Guide. When do the games come on, if you're a sports fan, or not, if you're a |
| 197 | 00:33:48 --> 00:33:56 | sports fan, how can you know when the next football game or the next basketball game or the next rugby team is going to play your this that you know thing. You |
| 198 | 00:33:56 --> 00:34:07 | got your TV guy, every every platform that has programming TV programming, will tell you what time what channel and what's happening then that's what this does, |
| 199 | 00:34:07 --> 00:34:17 | it tells us when we can sit back and relax. Now as a new trader, when we first first started trading, you never even looked at this stuff. You're looking for |
| 200 | 00:34:17 --> 00:34:23 | patterns, you want to see a head and shoulders you want to see harmonic pattern. You want to see moving average crossovers, you want to see order blocks, and you |
| 201 | 00:34:23 --> 00:34:33 | want to see, you know, fair value gaps and breakers and you want to see all these other things out there when they may exist in price, but because they |
| 202 | 00:34:33 --> 00:34:43 | exist in price alone without any context, that's why they will fail. But you'll walk away with an infancy in terms of experience thinking that therefore you've |
| 203 | 00:34:43 --> 00:34:48 | proven that this stuff doesn't work. So therefore let me go find an indicator to tell me how to do something. And then you'll discover the indicator isn't |
| 204 | 00:34:48 --> 00:34:58 | telling you anything except for the trade at the wrong time. Buying when you think it's oversold but it's in a bear market so it's going to stay oversold. So |
| 205 | 00:34:58 --> 00:35:08 | that's why I opened up this Lecture Series with this because this is the stuff that matters. This is the stuff that I had to learn by blowing lots of accounts |
| 206 | 00:35:08 --> 00:35:09 | as a 20 year old. |
| 207 | 00:35:10 --> 00:35:20 | I didn't learn this lesson from books, I had to learn it from losing real money and going back and saying, Okay, why did my trade loose in stunning fashion, I |
| 208 | 00:35:20 --> 00:35:28 | was long, because in the beginning, that's all I ever wanted to do. I didn't trust being short. And I would get these big huge drops against me bang. And |
| 209 | 00:35:28 --> 00:35:38 | because I was trying to trade without a stop loss, it took all if not majority of the trading account away from me. And it's demoralizing. It sucks, and it's |
| 210 | 00:35:38 --> 00:35:49 | avoidable. All of that is absolutely avoidable. It doesn't feel like especially if it just happens to you. But it is avoidable. And you have to number one build |
| 211 | 00:35:49 --> 00:36:00 | in the permission for us to speculate or the trader, right now, do you consider yourself the student, you have to give yourself permission to be wrong. Because |
| 212 | 00:36:00 --> 00:36:08 | if you if you equate everything to right or wrong, you are going to struggle in this industry, you're going to struggle, you're going to be angry all the time, |
| 213 | 00:36:08 --> 00:36:14 | you're gonna be scared, you're not going to trust your decisions, you're going to let every everyone else around you influence you. And it's never going to be |
| 214 | 00:36:14 --> 00:36:25 | the good influence that's going to affect you is going to be the bad. And it seems plausible to you. When you're in that state of mind. Go Let's look at ICTs |
| 215 | 00:36:25 --> 00:36:33 | videos, let's go look at somebody on social media look at look at so and so he's selling a course, look at sound so he does live streams look at sound so and |
| 216 | 00:36:33 --> 00:36:41 | what you're doing is you're trying to replace that uncomfortable state of mind and uncertainty and a lack of a plan or understanding of what it is you're |
| 217 | 00:36:41 --> 00:36:50 | trying to do. That should repeat more times than not, you're trying to replace that discomfort with distracting your attention with someone else doing |
| 218 | 00:36:50 --> 00:37:00 | something because in your mind, if they do it wrong, and you follow them. You taking that loss? Well, you've built in well to their fault, they did it to me. |
| 219 | 00:37:01 --> 00:37:09 | And your subconscious retains that as you didn't do anything wrong. And that's a problem on all fronts. You shouldn't be asking anybody else what they think |
| 220 | 00:37:09 --> 00:37:17 | about the Marketplace unless you're looking to feed them. That's what I do. I look for the public, in their live streams in their chats, when I have a setup |
| 221 | 00:37:17 --> 00:37:25 | that is I'm bearish. I'm gonna seasonal tendency that's bearish. I have a market structure that's bearish, I have a market that is rallied up into a short term |
| 222 | 00:37:25 --> 00:37:32 | premium. And I'll have a day when there's gonna be a new driver it is going to be releasing with a high impact, which is always a red folder, or a medium |
| 223 | 00:37:32 --> 00:37:41 | impact, which is the orange folder. My focus is limited to that. So I'm I'm picking, think about every wonder why I was only going out there certain days on |
| 224 | 00:37:41 --> 00:37:47 | Twitter and say, This is the candle I'm watching on this one minute candle, I'm watching this, this, this this, go back and look at the calendar on those days. |
| 225 | 00:37:49 --> 00:37:56 | Look at the time, it's the same thing all the time. Just like everybody else that wants to be a couch potato and they know what their favorite time and |
| 226 | 00:37:56 --> 00:38:06 | channel events are going to be. I know what I'm looking for for that given week. So I want to see a manipulative price run which is a Judas swing something |
| 227 | 00:38:06 --> 00:38:15 | against what I expect to occur. An example would be if I'm bearish, seasonal tendency is bearish, the longer intermediate term or a green and in terms of |
| 228 | 00:38:15 --> 00:38:26 | Steve Morris grass. And that seasonal tendency is implying that we're likely to go lower. I want to see a news impact driver on it on a calendar like this that |
| 229 | 00:38:26 --> 00:38:38 | has a red or orange folder at that given time. Now ideally, what I want to see is this. I want to see right before 830 If I'm bearish and I'm not saying that |
| 230 | 00:38:38 --> 00:38:48 | this is the case, I'm just giving you the nuts and bolts. If I'm bearish, I want to see right before 830. I want to see it drop down below a short term low |
| 231 | 00:38:48 --> 00:38:59 | first. Why? Because that triggers individuals on a breakout short or knocks out the long holders that have a short I'm sorry, I have a sell sell stop rate below |
| 232 | 00:38:59 --> 00:39:12 | a recent low. I want to see that happen before the news driver hits. Then I want to see at 830 I want to see it rally up. Now again, someone's going to take this |
| 233 | 00:39:12 --> 00:39:22 | soundbite and place it on say he said this is tomorrow. I'm not calling tomorrow's price action. I'm giving you the procedure of how I go in and I look |
| 234 | 00:39:22 --> 00:39:33 | for very specific days, weeks months to trade because I'm not trading every day. Just because I can day trade doesn't mean I'm an everyday trader. And you |
| 235 | 00:39:33 --> 00:39:43 | shouldn't be either. And that flies in the face of everybody that sells courses right now because they want to tell you it's an everyday occurrence. Not if you |
| 236 | 00:39:43 --> 00:39:53 | don't know what you're doing. That's a recipe for disaster and it's a recipe to cultivate poor habits, bad habits, okay, you don't want that. So the way I teach |
| 237 | 00:39:53 --> 00:40:01 | it, I want to give you the best of the best. So that way it filters out all the opportunity, if not all at least majority because he really never can, I can't |
| 238 | 00:40:01 --> 00:40:09 | reduce it to 100% unlikely that you're going to have a losing day, you're going to have a losing day you're going to lose and trade it's going to happen. But |
| 239 | 00:40:09 --> 00:40:16 | you're going to see if you apply this process it filters out. And that's what you really want. But you don't understand that yet, cuz you're brand new. Or if |
| 240 | 00:40:16 --> 00:40:26 | you've never, you've never had any success in this, you already have a predisposition to, you're looking for any excuse to justify every everybody is a |
| 241 | 00:40:26 --> 00:40:32 | fraud, everybody's a scammer. Nobody makes money. And you just want to have the permission to say I don't want to do this anymore, because you can't, you can't |
| 242 | 00:40:32 --> 00:40:41 | hack it. And there's nothing wrong with it. If that's how you feel, don't fight it just leave, don't trade, you'll probably be better off not trading. But for |
| 243 | 00:40:41 --> 00:40:48 | the individuals that are just simply not going to take no for an answer. And you know that given enough time and effort and doing things correctly, you can be |
| 244 | 00:40:48 --> 00:41:00 | profitable with this, this these are these these lectures are for you. But if you have that first initial drop against the due to swing that you anticipate, |
| 245 | 00:41:00 --> 00:41:10 | so In plain terms, you're bearish, you want to see it drop right before the high impact or news event it's medium or high impact. You want to see it drop the |
| 246 | 00:41:10 --> 00:41:18 | take the stops that you think is going in the right direction, but you're not taking that trade. Now all of a sudden light bulbs are popping off. Why doesn't |
| 247 | 00:41:18 --> 00:41:29 | ICT trade this here as a break in market structure? Why didn't he trade that? Why did he wait for I'm telling you right now, I'm telling you, are you taking |
| 248 | 00:41:29 --> 00:41:37 | notes? Probably not. You're waiting for the charts to get on the screen. But this is the stuff that matters more. Because the price action, that's the last |
| 249 | 00:41:37 --> 00:41:46 | thing, it's important. All of this is the most important thing. I could write a book or series of books just on this topic, and you won't read them, you won't |
| 250 | 00:41:46 --> 00:41:55 | like them, you'll leave bad reviews. But this is the heartbeat of why successful trades happen. No matter what you trade with. This is why your trades made |
| 251 | 00:41:55 --> 00:42:05 | money. That's that's the series that's this whole live stream lecture today, tomorrow and Wednesday, how to know why your trades work, because I'm gonna tell |
| 252 | 00:42:05 --> 00:42:14 | you right now, it isn't working because of your indicators. It's not because of some kind of harmonic pattern. It's not because it's a down closed candle right |
| 253 | 00:42:14 --> 00:42:23 | before the up move. And it came right back down to it that has that's not it. That's not it, there's many times where the market makes a run and drop down to |
| 254 | 00:42:23 --> 00:42:36 | a dental close candle. And that in an order block. What makes it a roadblock is these first these factors have to be there. You see how you see how fast all |
| 255 | 00:42:36 --> 00:42:46 | these other guys out there, they're trying to tell you what our block is, it fades away real quick. It fades away. Because they don't have this. And I'm |
| 256 | 00:42:46 --> 00:42:58 | giving it to you all publicly. So you all have at the same time. You want to see the smallest little degree of movement dropping down to take out a short term |
| 257 | 00:42:58 --> 00:43:08 | low. What that does it trips traders short on a breakout. Because they think that news driver is going to make a big move and they want to get in there |
| 258 | 00:43:08 --> 00:43:18 | gambling, they place a sell stop to get short, when it breaks out to the downside, you are waiting. Because you know that that's likely to happen. And |
| 259 | 00:43:18 --> 00:43:30 | when this does happen, and then you anticipate at 830 and minutes after that it should be running north, it should be explosively running higher, that rips the |
| 260 | 00:43:30 --> 00:43:41 | face off of anyone that went short, generally junkie public. Now what happens is traders are trapped, going long, because they're trying to buy the breakout |
| 261 | 00:43:42 --> 00:43:56 | above a recent high. They're trapped net long. And smart money goes in at that moment. And sells into that rally. Because that's exactly what they're waiting |
| 262 | 00:43:56 --> 00:44:06 | for. That's exactly what I'm waiting for. Now, you as a inexperienced student may listen to that and think, man, I don't think I can do that you probably |
| 263 | 00:44:06 --> 00:44:18 | won't be able to for a while. But that's not a problem. Because you can go into model 2022. Okay, wait for a market structure shift again below the low that was |
| 264 | 00:44:18 --> 00:44:28 | right before the news event. When that low gets taken out, you didn't then you have a market structure shift. Oh, how do you know what low to pick the causes |
| 265 | 00:44:28 --> 00:44:38 | market structure shift? All these things have to be there because think about what the markets doing to what classification of trader if you're if you're |
| 266 | 00:44:38 --> 00:44:46 | anticipating lower prices, and you're expecting some kind of manipulation to the upside initially creating the the high of the session or the high of the day. |
| 267 | 00:44:48 --> 00:44:58 | Everything prior to that has to be used in concert with what you're anticipating and when you know these things going in to that event. And then you see them |
| 268 | 00:44:58 --> 00:45:06 | painting out you can see Okay, well, I can see John Q Public, he's now he sold short, or people that went long initially, |
| 269 | 00:45:08 --> 00:45:17 | they get stopped out with that drop down below a short term load right before the news impact driver at 830, or whatever the timeframe is, and then rally up |
| 270 | 00:45:17 --> 00:45:24 | after they get stopped after long, they're going to do what they're going to chase it or do nothing. Most time, they're going to be nothing. They're just |
| 271 | 00:45:24 --> 00:45:31 | like a deer in headlights, like, I got stopped out. Now look, it ran without me. If they're smart, they won't buy it and chase it. But most of them won't do |
| 272 | 00:45:31 --> 00:45:43 | that. They'll be like, Oh, I gotta get my funded account passed. And they're going to chase it. And it's already ripped. But you are waiting for that run |
| 273 | 00:45:43 --> 00:45:52 | higher, because that's exactly what you want. Because it's done harm to two sides of the marketplace. It's trapped traders short break for the run at the |
| 274 | 00:45:52 --> 00:46:04 | news impact driver, then rip their face off and stops out anyone that's already short. By running the higher high. You're you're not worrying about any of these |
| 275 | 00:46:04 --> 00:46:14 | things. These are all things that you anticipate seeing in price. Now two things are happening right now, in the audience that's listening to this. Number one, |
| 276 | 00:46:14 --> 00:46:23 | there's a large degree of you out there thinking, show me what that looks like on a chart I will. But conceptually in your mind, these are the things that I do |
| 277 | 00:46:23 --> 00:46:31 | why I pick certain days. This is when I'm going to call the market. This is what I'm going to call the market. This is what I'm anticipating everything's there. |
| 278 | 00:46:31 --> 00:46:42 | Why would I want to go out there and say, Okay, I'm gonna try to figure it out as I go today. That's communicate probabilities. It doesn't communicate |
| 279 | 00:46:43 --> 00:46:52 | authorship, it doesn't communicate anything except for Well, I'm just gonna see what happens. And that's usually what happens with majority of traders, they try |
| 280 | 00:46:52 --> 00:47:04 | things before they understand how to do it. And if they do succeed, they contribute that to skill, or I was born to do this. I'm a goat. There is a such |
| 281 | 00:47:04 --> 00:47:12 | thing as beginner's luck, I had that. But then I discovered a hidden habit, and had to learn how to trade and it took me years to do it. Many of you wouldn't |
| 282 | 00:47:12 --> 00:47:20 | like to be told on the first day of you trying to learn this. It's gonna take you years to learn how to do this consistently. And some of you will hear that |
| 283 | 00:47:20 --> 00:47:27 | and say, Well, I'm not I'm not going to I got time for that. Let me go to tick tock and see who's telling me how to do something right now. And that right now, |
| 284 | 00:47:27 --> 00:47:37 | thing is this the reason for you go out there and lose money. So these are the nuts and bolts on how I start the framework for bias. If those things all agree, |
| 285 | 00:47:38 --> 00:47:52 | and we're on like a Monday or Tuesday or Wednesday of the week, oh, man, you can't understand how comfortable it is the trade news environment, because I |
| 286 | 00:47:52 --> 00:48:01 | have so many things in my favor, that even if I'm trading the largest degree of leverage that I would have on my money trades, which is usually about four and a |
| 287 | 00:48:01 --> 00:48:10 | half percent. That's not to say that you should respond a half percent. But my large scale size, when I feel confident in news, and in these environments, when |
| 288 | 00:48:10 --> 00:48:28 | I'm describing here, I will trade as much as four and a half percent per trade, per position. If I take a loss, in these instances, I will not reduce my risk |
| 289 | 00:48:28 --> 00:48:37 | and cut it in half, because everything still stays the same. And I'm willing to take that, well, what you're saying is you're willing to lose 9% Yes. Because |
| 290 | 00:48:37 --> 00:48:45 | that 9% isn't going to cause me to go into a tailspin and then go, Well, I'm gonna I'm willing to lose 18%. Now I'm willing to lose 30% of my account today. |
| 291 | 00:48:45 --> 00:48:56 | That's not That's not what I'm inviting. I'm saying that I have the parameter still there that yeah, I may have had my stop loss in a position that was too |
| 292 | 00:48:56 --> 00:49:05 | thin. For the given market volatility, or I was too overzealous about limiting the risk is I wanted to get to that four and a half percent risk. If I get |
| 293 | 00:49:05 --> 00:49:13 | stopped out, I teach you because you don't have the experience, you don't know what you're really looking for yet. And you don't have to continue to count |
| 294 | 00:49:13 --> 00:49:26 | continuity of relying on this information to see that it pans out more times than it fails. You don't have that that has to be collected over time. And all |
| 295 | 00:49:26 --> 00:49:35 | of your going to require a different measure of time. But I have the probabilities that can shift me right back above that four and a half percent |
| 296 | 00:49:35 --> 00:49:46 | drawdown. And then because I'm holding for trades that are 5075 100 handles or more, even though I've taught individuals to start with like 10 handles or five |
| 297 | 00:49:46 --> 00:49:56 | handles for s&p, just to give yourself something to work with and build a baseline on. That's not to be saying that that should be your career. That's |
| 298 | 00:49:56 --> 00:50:03 | your model in its entirety. No. Is it a breadwinner? Absolutely. Li, can you buy groceries every month? With that? Yeah, absolutely Can you pay your mortgage |
| 299 | 00:50:03 --> 00:50:14 | with, absolutely. But on the same side of that, coin, the if you turn it over, you have, I have plenty of reasons how I can blow my account. Because there's a |
| 300 | 00:50:14 --> 00:50:21 | lot of five minute or five for handle fluctuations intraday. And if you don't know what you're doing, and you're just and you're trying to throw darts, |
| 301 | 00:50:21 --> 00:50:32 | because you want something to fall in your lap, in, give you an attaboy or at a girl pat on the shoulder, you got to be very careful not to take this as Skill |
| 302 | 00:50:32 --> 00:50:41 | versus looking at the market like this, where you take all these factors and blend them together. And only try to trade in those instances, that means |
| 303 | 00:50:41 --> 00:50:53 | there's going to be days in the month, not one day days, in the month, where you want it to be trading. But you're not going to feel any apprehension about |
| 304 | 00:50:53 --> 00:51:00 | staying on the sidelines. Because you know, based on your experience level, you only want to be trading when everything's lined up. And even though there might |
| 305 | 00:51:00 --> 00:51:09 | be a big move that happens and you weren't there. That's not the last trading day. That's not the last opportunity for you. But as a new trader, you think |
| 306 | 00:51:09 --> 00:51:19 | that way. And that clouds your mind when it comes to things like bias. Because when I say bias, you assume I know every single trading day, every single |
| 307 | 00:51:19 --> 00:51:31 | trading session, high and low. I know the bias for every single session in advance, I don't because these markets have an element of manipulation that you |
| 308 | 00:51:31 --> 00:51:40 | can't expect to have foreknowledge of you don't know when the next bombs going to drop, you don't know when some terrorist attack is going to happen. You don't |
| 309 | 00:51:40 --> 00:51:52 | know when some major leader is going to have a dismissal where he's taken out of position. You know, all these things are unknowns. So no one has the position of |
| 310 | 00:51:54 --> 00:52:03 | authority where everything is understood beforehand. And I'm not claiming that. But I can tell you with great confidence that if I can sit in from the chart, |
| 311 | 00:52:04 --> 00:52:12 | given the things I'm talking about here, if if that environment is in fact, what's in play, that's when you saw me going out there and saying every one |
| 312 | 00:52:12 --> 00:52:27 | fluctuation and it would be perfect, like perfect. Now, for some of you and we're starting on day one with this workshop, these may be deflating, it may be |
| 313 | 00:52:27 --> 00:52:36 | well, you know, I was really hoping you're gonna teach me how to trade every day, I will. But I want you to also know that if you don't have the experience, |
| 314 | 00:52:36 --> 00:52:46 | to know what it is you're doing, and you don't have the discipline, and the personal responsibility, and those things those factors are, you can't find them |
| 315 | 00:52:46 --> 00:52:53 | in today's social media. They nobody, nobody wants to be accountable, they delete their live streams, I never delete my live stream. Never nothing, right, |
| 316 | 00:52:53 --> 00:53:04 | nothing that I put out there is getting deleted, tweets, don't get deleted, videos don't get deleted, nothing, okay? Because you're going to make a mistake, |
| 317 | 00:53:05 --> 00:53:12 | you're going to anticipate or expect something. And you may have all these things that I've covered here, you've gone through the process, and you've |
| 318 | 00:53:12 --> 00:53:20 | arrived at what you want to do. And then the time comes that the news driver event, high impact or medium impact news driver comes, you anticipate the |
| 319 | 00:53:20 --> 00:53:32 | specific price run like you want to, and then you engage it, you trade it and it pans out a little bit, and you move your stock, and then you get stopped out. |
| 320 | 00:53:32 --> 00:53:42 | And you're gonna feel like oh, no, this is horrible. I got stopped out. And you won't go back in. I'm going to teach you on Tuesday, how to know when to get |
| 321 | 00:53:42 --> 00:53:51 | back into a tray when you get stopped out how to trust the bias. And then on Wednesday, I'm going to talk about how you can trust to let your trades run. |
| 322 | 00:53:52 --> 00:54:01 | There's a lot of individuals that I see trading. They've gone through all the hard work of being willing to sit in front of you on a live stream. That takes a |
| 323 | 00:54:01 --> 00:54:12 | lot of courage, folks, it takes a lot of conviction. And it takes a great deal of Moxie balls, if you will, okay, it takes someone that just simply has the |
| 324 | 00:54:12 --> 00:54:23 | ability to discount everybody else's opinion. But I promise you, every single one of them when their stream is done, they're feeling everything, then they're |
| 325 | 00:54:23 --> 00:54:30 | feeling the peacocking if they did it, right. And they're also feeling like man, I don't even want to look at the comments because I know I'm getting drilled. |
| 326 | 00:54:32 --> 00:54:41 | They're dealing with it, but they have the ability to just push it away while they're live streaming that that demands respect. That's why I I'll give you |
| 327 | 00:54:41 --> 00:54:56 | example, Matt Miller, I watched the kid for about two years. And he shouldn't say kid with I guess the My age is a kid but I simply adore him because he's not |
| 328 | 00:54:56 --> 00:55:07 | out there trying to be braggadocious he's Very simple guy. He's not trying to be over the top. And he's doing something right now. And I've preached this, okay, |
| 329 | 00:55:08 --> 00:55:18 | find something that small, a low hanging fruit objective. Once you get it, stop. And I don't know, I haven't been on social media last couple months, because we |
| 330 | 00:55:18 --> 00:55:26 | went through some things with our family with my mother in law. She's going to be with the Lord now. But obviously now I'm back in the saddle here. So, but I |
| 331 | 00:55:26 --> 00:55:37 | thought I saw a thumbnail. And he said, in a thumbnail, he's taken $160,000 out of I think it's apex. Forgive me if I'm saying that wrong. I think it's apex. |
| 332 | 00:55:38 --> 00:55:50 | It's a company like, like top step or whatever. But the the fact that he was able to take $160,000 out, I haven't seen anybody else. Do that this year. Now, |
| 333 | 00:55:50 --> 00:55:59 | they may have been someone that's made more money. But from my understanding, and I haven't watched everything he's been doing. But that sounds pretty |
| 334 | 00:55:59 --> 00:56:10 | respectable, though, don't you think? Did you make $160,000 this year so far? I'm not talking about fish and Pat. I'm not talking about catching fish. Okay. |
| 335 | 00:56:10 --> 00:56:22 | I'm talking about trading. And he didn't do over the top stuff. Real simple. We don't we don't look for. And then on top of it, he livestreams it. That guy |
| 336 | 00:56:22 --> 00:56:33 | should have more followers. He should have more viewers. In my opinion. He's the number one day trader on YouTube right now. Oh, yes, I said, because he's doing |
| 337 | 00:56:33 --> 00:56:44 | it in front of you. He's proving his payouts. And it's, it's working for him. And I'm going to suggest to him in this presentation, because I already |
| 338 | 00:56:44 --> 00:56:53 | communicated to him. I said, You're the reason why I'm going to do this, this lecture series, the next three days. Because I want to encourage him, because |
| 339 | 00:56:53 --> 00:57:04 | he's feeling what everybody feels. When you have something that works. The numbers start speaking to you. And then you want to do what? I want to start |
| 340 | 00:57:04 --> 00:57:17 | cranking it up. No. No, see, you're trying to appease everybody else. Don't. Because that 160,000 hours, you're gonna be here, you're you have to pay taxes |
| 341 | 00:57:17 --> 00:57:28 | on that money, your audience isn't. You worked for it, you took the risk, all those things. So when you have windfall victories like this, and it's |
| 342 | 00:57:28 --> 00:57:40 | consistent, you have found your unicorn. I'm telling you, what, 32 years experience, you have what works for you, if you tinker with it, man, I'm telling |
| 343 | 00:57:40 --> 00:57:49 | you, if you tinker with it, or you tried to push beyond the bounds that you've discovered works for you. It's going to unravel. I've done this myself. I've |
| 344 | 00:57:49 --> 00:57:58 | seen students do this. I've had a lot of people that I've engaged in the last 32 years. I've seen them do explosive profitability. And they had something that |
| 345 | 00:57:58 --> 00:58:08 | worked amazingly simple. And they tried to do something more with it. You tried to turn a hammer into a screwdriver. And guess what, you mess it all up. You |
| 346 | 00:58:08 --> 00:58:17 | have exactly what you need now doesn't mean that you can't have an amount on another count trading. That that's something yet I would encourage that. But |
| 347 | 00:58:17 --> 00:58:25 | what you're doing right now, dude, you're smashing it like you're killing it right now. Everybody that's ever trolled you, they aren't doing what you're |
| 348 | 00:58:25 --> 00:58:33 | doing. They're not doing what you're doing. And you're not out there beating your chest. As far as I'm concerned. You're the number one day trader on |
| 349 | 00:58:33 --> 00:58:41 | YouTube. Matt Miller trades by Matt, you should all be watching. You should all be watching this guy. Because he's not out here. He's just casually he's |
| 350 | 00:58:41 --> 00:58:50 | talking. And then when he feels he wants to make a trade right or wrong. He does it. That's what it's supposed to be like, not, I'm trying to be King of the |
| 351 | 00:58:50 --> 00:58:57 | Hill. I'm not trying to tear somebody else's company down. I'm not trying to prevent somebody to do this and do that. This guy has been trolled by a lot of |
| 352 | 00:58:57 --> 00:59:11 | people. What are they saying about him right now? What can they say about him? He's got his head, in the in the in the charts. He's on the ground. And he's |
| 353 | 00:59:11 --> 00:59:21 | focusing on what he's trying to do. But he's admitted that he's feeling that that tug of war. He wants to he wants to do more. You don't need to do more. |
| 354 | 00:59:21 --> 00:59:33 | Trust me, if you continuously do what you're doing. You're going to have a year, that's a banner year. That means your results are going to be so over the top by |
| 355 | 00:59:33 --> 00:59:49 | doing the least. Man that's that is absolutely what everybody wants to do. But can't do it. And you're doing it. So kudos to you, man. But that's exactly what |
| 356 | 00:59:49 --> 01:00:00 | I was teaching in 2022 and 2023. Find a model. It's simple. You don't need to be trading the full range. You don't even need to know bias to do that. If you |
| 357 | 01:00:00 --> 01:00:13 | don't even know bias, you just need to know how you're going to engage. And what's the smallest threshold of profitability that you confidently can see |
| 358 | 01:00:13 --> 01:00:24 | happening every single time you sit in front of charts. And also give yourself permission that if the conditions are not there for you to take a trade, turn |
| 359 | 01:00:24 --> 01:00:33 | the charts off and get out of your house, get out of your office, put your phone away, I promise you, your consistency will go through the roof, your drawdown |
| 360 | 01:00:33 --> 01:00:42 | will be minimized. You still will lose trades, obviously. I mean, everybody loses trades. But you won't be ground down to powder. Because you're trying to |
| 361 | 01:00:42 --> 01:00:50 | do more than what's required. There's 20, essentially 20 trading days in a calendar month. Generally, there's about two of them that I don't like to trade |
| 362 | 01:00:50 --> 01:01:03 | on, no matter what. That's Non Farm Payroll in the day before Non Farm Payroll FOMC, I'm not afraid of missing. I'll trade on FOMC. The Mondays that I do like |
| 363 | 01:01:03 --> 01:01:14 | to trade our this week. Why? Because if you look at the economic calendar down here on Friday, what does that say? Non Farm Payroll. So I know that even though |
| 364 | 01:01:14 --> 01:01:25 | there's no employment data, no economic data, no news drivers with you know, with anything to speak of in terms of high impact on me and impact from Forex, |
| 365 | 01:01:25 --> 01:01:34 | factories, calendar, there's things that are occurring today. But generally, this is come with a light day, but we're also in earnings season. So all these |
| 366 | 01:01:34 --> 01:01:49 | things are going to create a wild wheat of trading. So I want to bring this in right now. When do I avoid daily bias? When do I avoid not forcing a bias on |
| 367 | 01:01:49 --> 01:02:08 | this event are here we have FOMC. This week, we have rate announcement. We have Non Farm Payroll. Look at this calendar. It is a minefield. So I don't expect |
| 368 | 01:02:08 --> 01:02:17 | myself to go in on a week like this. And say, Okay, I need to know what the daily bias is on Monday, I need to know what the daily bias is on Tuesday, I |
| 369 | 01:02:17 --> 01:02:26 | need to know what the daily bias is on Wednesday, I need to know today on is on Thursday or Friday? I don't I give my self permission to not have to worry about |
| 370 | 01:02:26 --> 01:02:34 | that. So what does that mean? What do I do? Well, you have to conclusion that either you're going to you're going to not trade or you're going to trade. If |
| 371 | 01:02:34 --> 01:02:42 | you're going to trade How are you going to trade, you're going to trade without a bias. That means you're gonna trade intraday volatility, I have to be very |
| 372 | 01:02:42 --> 01:02:51 | careful what I'm about to say because some of you take my audible clips, and you either use them in the right context and the people that don't like me, take |
| 373 | 01:02:51 --> 01:03:03 | them out of context, and then make them something that I didn't say, with experience. And when you can determine when everything is in your favor for the |
| 374 | 01:03:03 --> 01:03:13 | market to be slated new, bullish or bearish, and have a sustained price run higher or lower. Those are the best conditions to trading. But they're not the |
| 375 | 01:03:13 --> 01:03:25 | only conditions to trade in. When I'm trading with a market environment, that is without a daily bias, I am never trading with my highest leverage, I'm not |
| 376 | 01:03:25 --> 01:03:36 | trading with four and a half percent per trade. In terms of risk, I never do that. I will never open myself up to that. So what is my risk per trade when I'm |
| 377 | 01:03:36 --> 01:03:45 | in a market environment where I don't have a way of discerning with confidence, the assurity that I've heard described how I have the authority and competence |
| 378 | 01:03:45 --> 01:03:57 | to do it on certain days. When all those factors are equal, then I will risk the maximum. If I miss the initial move, whether it be stopped out, and I had to |
| 379 | 01:03:57 --> 01:04:05 | reenter. Or I just get to my charge late because hey, I have a family. Sometimes, you know, nature calls and I have to relieve myself and I just can't |
| 380 | 01:04:05 --> 01:04:13 | be in front of the charts. I'm a real person, I'm not a I'm a real person, I may be tied up with something that my family requires me to do. And then I get to |
| 381 | 01:04:13 --> 01:04:20 | the chart, I missed the real ideal entry point. Then I'm going to risk about two and a half percent maximum. |
| 382 | 01:04:23 --> 01:04:33 | But if I all the things that I just described, if I missed that, and I had to just use a fair value got to get involved in a move that's already maybe 40% on |
| 383 | 01:04:33 --> 01:04:45 | its way. Now I have 60% of the unrealized range still left to be delivered to the price. Then I'll trade with one and a half percent rest max. Now I just |
| 384 | 01:04:45 --> 01:04:58 | covered a very vast array of questions that I get a lot. There's nothing I can do audibly or write into a book that's going to make that any more plainer or |
| 385 | 01:04:58 --> 01:05:08 | straight to the point It's so plain and straight to the point that it's boring, it's boring the socks off you. But that's the stuff that makes you or breaks |
| 386 | 01:05:08 --> 01:05:18 | you. See, you're going in with, I need to know the days that ICT wants to trade and the days that he wants to know when he wants to be a buyer or seller and |
| 387 | 01:05:18 --> 01:05:27 | where he knows the high and low today, there's a lot of things that are required for that. And that's not an everyday incidence. And everyday incidence is |
| 388 | 01:05:27 --> 01:05:39 | unrealistic. And you can't, you can't obtain that no one's gonna be able to attain that. Why? How can I say that with no assurity. Because manipulations |
| 389 | 01:05:39 --> 01:05:47 | always a factor. You don't know how many times they're gonna pass through an old high before they drop it. You don't know that you don't have the experience to |
| 390 | 01:05:47 --> 01:05:56 | see that yet. You don't know the you don't have the experience to determine how one single pass above a short term high. That's enough, that creates the high |
| 391 | 01:05:56 --> 01:06:04 | the day, hold it and run it through the rest of the day. But we're going to cover those things today, tomorrow and Wednesday. So it kind of gives you a |
| 392 | 01:06:04 --> 01:06:14 | foundation and framework. So anyway, that's enough about all that and that's the the big rocks, if you will, these are the big heavy hitters that are used for me |
| 393 | 01:06:14 --> 01:06:22 | to determine a bias. Now already, some of you probably have 1000 new questions. And I love that, I love it. Because that means you're engaged, that means you're |
| 394 | 01:06:22 --> 01:06:38 | here to learn. So I'm going to transition over into price action. And we're in look at some charts here. And what I'd like to do is start with a daily, weekly, |
| 395 | 01:06:39 --> 01:06:50 | monthly view of the dollar index. Now, because of all the things that's going on around the world, specifically with the Middle East, I expect the dollar to |
| 396 | 01:06:50 --> 01:07:04 | appreciate in value graphically on the chart. But that doesn't always equate to more value in your spendable dollar. Okay, the dollar is going to go higher, if |
| 397 | 01:07:04 --> 01:07:14 | we have an escalation in what's going on in the Middle East, between Iran, Russia, Israel, all that's boiling up. And that's going to impact your trading, |
| 398 | 01:07:14 --> 01:07:21 | whether you like to believe it or not, you might like to think, hey, in the United States, it's happening over there. So we got to worry about it. And all |
| 399 | 01:07:21 --> 01:07:32 | that stuff is going to impact the marketplace. So it's important to know these things. Okay. And we've gone through Passover, you know, we're on on the other |
| 400 | 01:07:32 --> 01:07:47 | end of that. So I expect things to ramp up over there. So what does that mean? That means that I expect a possibility that the dollar goes higher. That doesn't |
| 401 | 01:07:47 --> 01:08:00 | always equate to immediate sell off in index futures. They can move in tandem, initially. There could be ugliness, where it's up and down real quick. And then |
| 402 | 01:08:00 --> 01:08:11 | it starts going higher because of flight to safety, or flight to quality, or risk off risk off is dollars higher. That means all other markets, all their |
| 403 | 01:08:11 --> 01:08:25 | markets are likely to decrease. But when a geopolitical wartime event happens, it's not always mark to market. It's not everything's moving perfectly in sync. |
| 404 | 01:08:26 --> 01:08:39 | Because those initial moments, the market makers use that opportunity to clear the board, meaning they'll go north south to the farthest extremes and wipe |
| 405 | 01:08:39 --> 01:08:53 | everybody out. That is why I am not trading Forex. We are going to see a major bank banking collapse is happening if you don't want to believe it. But it's |
| 406 | 01:08:53 --> 01:09:07 | coming. Okay, another bank has failed this weekend. And a major bank in the next two weeks is likely to fold to a big one. Something Nick, everybody knows these |
| 407 | 01:09:07 --> 01:09:17 | banks. Okay. But the smaller banks, they've been failing. And that's why I won't touch Forex, because something really Bad's about to happen. Like when the euro |
| 408 | 01:09:17 --> 01:09:29 | and Swiss he was the peg and that was craziness. It's crazy town like I don't care who you are, how much money you got. You're done. Your your tickets |
| 409 | 01:09:29 --> 01:09:41 | punched, you're out of their brokerage firms, investment firms, large traders were buried when that happened. And there's no way to protect yourself from it. |
| 410 | 01:09:41 --> 01:09:53 | It's so instant, it's like Bang it's over. You owe more money than you have. So it's for that reason, and because I don't know how to time that because it's |
| 411 | 01:09:53 --> 01:10:03 | outside of my control. It's outside of my I don't have the pay grade to have the Intel didn't know when that's gonna happen. But I know it's coming. So I just |
| 412 | 01:10:03 --> 01:10:14 | segwayed back to where I started in commodities and futures. And I'm fine with that. But the things I'm discussing, are germane to every asset class. So |
| 413 | 01:10:14 --> 01:10:23 | whether you're let me rephrase that, not crypto, because I am not a person that understands crypto, I don't have faith in crypto, I do not buy crypto, I don't |
| 414 | 01:10:23 --> 01:10:33 | sell crypto, I have no affiliation with crypto, I have nothing to do with crypto, okay. And I sell the idea that it's going to zero. And I can be sitting |
| 415 | 01:10:33 --> 01:10:40 | here telling you that and it can go to a million, I didn't lose money. And I don't care what anybody thinks about it. Because I don't want to address crypto, |
| 416 | 01:10:41 --> 01:10:48 | I think it's the B system, I'm not going to trade it, I'm not going to use it, I'm not going to spend it. And that's my I'm not going to talk about it. So |
| 417 | 01:10:48 --> 01:10:58 | there you go. I can't get in player into the point. And that's why I don't touch your touch it. So all the things I've talked about here, up to this point, and |
| 418 | 01:10:58 --> 01:11:13 | throughout the entirety of this workshop this week, is germane to futures, commodities, bonds, currencies, and index futures. So everything is the same. It |
| 419 | 01:11:13 --> 01:11:20 | doesn't matter. It's all it's all going to be viewed the same way. If I'm looking at any one of those individual asset classes, I'm interrupt |
| 420 | 01:11:20 --> 01:11:29 | internalizing the things I've covered so far. So but I, when I go into the charts, I go right to the dollar index first, because I want to get a feel for |
| 421 | 01:11:29 --> 01:11:36 | risk on risk off, if the dollar is likely to go higher. How do I know that? Well, we start with a monthly chart. Now you don't have to have your charts laid |
| 422 | 01:11:36 --> 01:11:47 | out like this, okay, if you have a laptop, and you have a membership to whatever platform you're using, I use TradingView simply because my community asked me to |
| 423 | 01:11:47 --> 01:11:56 | use it. And I have no affiliation. Even though they asked me, I would, I would receive something from them, I turned it down, and I have saved and screenshot |
| 424 | 01:11:56 --> 01:12:07 | it in case I'm ever asked, I don't get any compensation for talking about the tools or resources that I employ or using teaching, I don't have any reason to |
| 425 | 01:12:07 --> 01:12:15 | tell you something's good or bad, except for my own experience with it. That's the that's the opinion that matters. It's not influenced, I'm not, I'm not |
| 426 | 01:12:15 --> 01:12:23 | biased, because I'm getting my pockets lined, okay, I'm not producing anything, that's a kickback to myself. But TradingView, you can you can set this up where |
| 427 | 01:12:23 --> 01:12:33 | you're just looking at one chart at a time. But I will say this to whether you're using trading view or any other platform, if you can have two or three |
| 428 | 01:12:33 --> 01:12:43 | timeframes visible at the same time. Or if you have the luxury of having multiple monitors, you don't need it. But if you have the luxury to having that |
| 429 | 01:12:43 --> 01:12:53 | real estate, you can have a whole lot more insight by having more timeframes in front of you. But if you don't know what you're looking for, was what I opened |
| 430 | 01:12:53 --> 01:13:03 | this lecture up with today, using that higher time macro perspective and working your way through that, then finally, going into the charts. Having more charts |
| 431 | 01:13:03 --> 01:13:09 | and more monitors isn't going to help you. There'll be just one more catalyst for you to get in and lose money. So you still have to know what you're doing. |
| 432 | 01:13:10 --> 01:13:17 | So what do we do? And why are we looking at these timeframes? What is it, we're dealing with them? Up here in the upper left hand corner? That's a monthly |
| 433 | 01:13:17 --> 01:13:25 | chart, and I'm gonna maximize it just for a moment. So this is the dollar index, I don't care what you trade. Okay, I don't care what you trade. If you're not |
| 434 | 01:13:25 --> 01:13:35 | referring to the dollar, you're not doing the effective analysis. Okay. It doesn't, it doesn't hurt my feelings when people say that. No, that's not true. |
| 435 | 01:13:35 --> 01:13:41 | I can do this with that. Look, there's a lot of people that are flipping quarters and making money. Okay. I don't want to repeat that a skill, you might |
| 436 | 01:13:41 --> 01:13:51 | want to call that skill I don't. So when I look at the dollar index, what I'm looking for in a monthly chart is where are we at right now? Well, that's pretty |
| 437 | 01:13:51 --> 01:14:02 | obvious. It's right here. Where did we come from? What where did we just leave energetically? And how was it left? It's real crucial. And the things I'm |
| 438 | 01:14:02 --> 01:14:12 | talking about here, that's the same thing you're doing on a daily chart, it's the same thing you're doing, or a four hour chart, it's the same thing you'll do |
| 439 | 01:14:12 --> 01:14:19 | on an hourly chart, the same thing on a 15. And same thing on a five minute and same thing on a woman and same thing on a 15 second chart. |
| 440 | 01:14:20 --> 01:14:29 | It's not being reinvented. You're not trying to learn something, apply something entirely new just because you look at it in a different timeframe. But the price |
| 441 | 01:14:29 --> 01:14:41 | delivery continuum is how price is offered to us from a higher timeframe perspective, like this monthly chart down to the smaller timeframes. Where are |
| 442 | 01:14:41 --> 01:14:51 | you at on that 15 second chart in respect to what we're doing on the monthly? How many times have you looked at the chart with that perspective? How many |
| 443 | 01:14:51 --> 01:15:00 | times have you lost money and then peeked at a monthly or weekly or daily chart and said Ma'am, why did I go long when this thing was clearly looking to go to |
| 444 | 01:15:00 --> 01:15:09 | lower because you'll have the benefit of 2020 hindsight then, but I'm teaching you what it is I do every time frame. But I'm placing a great deal of emphasis |
| 445 | 01:15:09 --> 01:15:21 | for determining bias, or feeling comfortable with trading a session with One Direction better than the other. But I may have conflicting analysis on the |
| 446 | 01:15:21 --> 01:15:29 | higher timeframes, we may be in a position where, Okay, it's done something and I'm going to cover what what you're looking for in a second. But I'm kind of |
| 447 | 01:15:29 --> 01:15:37 | like give you moments where I may look at these charts on the monthly the weekly in a daily and they have already done something. And now they're just sitting |
| 448 | 01:15:37 --> 01:15:48 | there, where you can go either way, then that that moment, I'm basically going to go in and trade intraday volatility, then I'll look for these 10 to 15, |
| 449 | 01:15:48 --> 01:15:55 | handle runs in the NASDAQ and be content with that not try to reach for 50 handles not reach for honor handle day. Because the likelihood of that |
| 450 | 01:15:55 --> 01:16:09 | delivering is low. Not that it can't happen. But my ability to be in there on that one individual Price run on that given moment. And that session, after the |
| 451 | 01:16:09 --> 01:16:17 | market has done something or entered an area on a higher timeframe monthly, weekly or daily, where it could sit there for a day or two. And nothing really |
| 452 | 01:16:17 --> 01:16:26 | changes on the higher timeframe, but it just sits there. That's frustrating, especially if you're trying to squeeze a 200 handle run out of something that |
| 453 | 01:16:26 --> 01:16:34 | isn't going to move more than 40 or 50 handles for the daily range. You're trying to force your Will you want something that isn't going to be offered to |
| 454 | 01:16:34 --> 01:16:44 | you. And as a new trader, I fell victim to that because I thought that things I saw in books, were going to just spring into action every single day. And it |
| 455 | 01:16:44 --> 01:16:56 | doesn't work like that. This workshop is going to teach you what does happen every single day. And it how that smallest little component can be used as a |
| 456 | 01:16:57 --> 01:17:03 | small component with another one just like it that makes a larger component or another larger opportunity and how they nest and that's the price delivery |
| 457 | 01:17:03 --> 01:17:11 | continuum, how we can look at all these timeframes and pick buys and sell. You want to learn how to be a buyer and seller in the same day, we're gonna you're |
| 458 | 01:17:11 --> 01:17:20 | gonna learn that this week, you don't need to buy anybody's courses. Okay, it's, I'm gonna show it to you, it's gonna be on live price charts, okay. There's no |
| 459 | 01:17:20 --> 01:17:31 | better way of learning it. Okay, it's there's no better way than seeing it happen. Now didn't measure the the delay or latency on this stream, but I always |
| 460 | 01:17:31 --> 01:17:43 | have it set to the lowest one. So whatever that is, that's what we're at. But here if we're looking at the monthly in the Doppler, we have this up here. Now |
| 461 | 01:17:43 --> 01:17:54 | we have nice little run there. But now we have done what we move back into this inefficiency right there. That's on the try to avoid putting a lot of markings |
| 462 | 01:17:54 --> 01:18:04 | on the chart. So just take your time and watch the video and play back in you'll see what I'm referring to. But on your charts, you should definitely putting |
| 463 | 01:18:04 --> 01:18:17 | this lipstick on it. This inefficiency we entered into that rating here and outside of it. So this candle is low. That candle right there that candles low |
| 464 | 01:18:17 --> 01:18:35 | the the price is one zero 5.36k to that low. For that individual month, October 2023. We have traded to it. And through it. This high rate above that is going |
| 465 | 01:18:35 --> 01:18:49 | to have what buyside liquidity to the left of it. We had this inefficiency right here. Below us. Where did we come from? Well, we came from this low here. What |
| 466 | 01:18:49 --> 01:19:07 | did that do? Consequent encroachment this week see that 50% of the wick wicks are gaps. Okay, that's how you should look at it. The algorithm I know you don't |
| 467 | 01:19:07 --> 01:19:19 | believe as an algorithm, the algorithm sees these wicks and treats it as a guy. Okay. So, whenever you see a wick like this, it created a turning point. A lot |
| 468 | 01:19:19 --> 01:19:27 | of folks will look at if they're bearish, they're gonna see that low as support anther bearish, they want to see that support be what broken? I don't look at |
| 469 | 01:19:27 --> 01:19:38 | that like that. I look at half of that wick in the upper quadrant. Those are the most sensitive price points when you're bullish. If you did not write that down, |
| 470 | 01:19:38 --> 01:19:51 | you missed a golden opportunity of seeing something that repeats every single day. intraday charts have this happening all the time. I want to learn how to |
| 471 | 01:19:51 --> 01:20:01 | trade candlestick patterns. Okay, this is one of the strongest ones. And that's not your books. Find it $5 million So you could go through and find all my stuff |
| 472 | 01:20:02 --> 01:20:14 | rebranded it you can go find it now these lows here that was taken out so that was a purchase sell side liquidity any drop down. We had this big long wick. I'm |
| 473 | 01:20:14 --> 01:20:22 | not thinking we're going to take that low Well, why why would I expect that not to be taken out? Because when it went down it took out the sell side but further |
| 474 | 01:20:22 --> 01:20:33 | to the left, what did they do? It rebalanced this inefficiency, this high of that candle in this candles low, that little gap right there. That's a buy side |
| 475 | 01:20:33 --> 01:20:42 | imbalance. So side inefficiency, fair value back by classification, but it's an up close candle. So that means it's a bison unbalanced outside of inefficiency |
| 476 | 01:20:42 --> 01:20:55 | or busy bi Si. It rebounds there did it displace after doing so? Yes. Did it take out a short term high? Yes. So then he retracement down. If that works like |
| 477 | 01:20:55 --> 01:21:05 | that, your eyes should be right there on the midpoint of it, which is consequent encroachment, or the upper quadrant of that wick, which would be essentially |
| 478 | 01:21:05 --> 01:21:16 | right around here. And look where the bodies of the candles are right there on the upper quadrant. See that? That's algorithmic that's not random buying and |
| 479 | 01:21:16 --> 01:21:26 | selling pressure. Because if you're saying that price moves simply on buying and selling pressure, what you're essentially saying is the 90% club that loses, |
| 480 | 01:21:27 --> 01:21:39 | they're directing the price, the price action, and they're not. It's the people that they're losing to because it's a net sum Zero game 90% of people lose money |
| 481 | 01:21:40 --> 01:21:48 | on trading. But because it's not some secret game, there's someone winning on the other side of that. So there's a group that's 9% winners. I'm telling you |
| 482 | 01:21:48 --> 01:21:59 | how they think and how they operate and how they engage in price. But you don't look at it like that. Because it's it's unobtainable to you unless you know how |
| 483 | 01:21:59 --> 01:22:14 | to look at price. The game is played by taking from That's it. That's That's how this works. It's presented to us as these are investment ideas, build your |
| 484 | 01:22:14 --> 01:22:23 | future, build your nest day, blah, blah, blah, just like casinos, they show you all the glitz didn't make you get out there. And once you're out there and you |
| 485 | 01:22:23 --> 01:22:30 | lose your money, you're like, Wow, this isn't what I thought it's gonna be like, I didn't really have that much fun matter of fact. And it was very expensive. So |
| 486 | 01:22:30 --> 01:22:41 | when we're looking at price, it's the same way. It's casino time. But you're not gambling, you're waiting to see the gamblers sit at the slot machines, either I |
| 487 | 01:22:41 --> 01:22:49 | gotta write us a check up and can't figure out what what the hell are called the slot machines is a pattern that these people they do walk around like sharks. |
| 488 | 01:22:50 --> 01:22:57 | And they want to see, okay, it's this time on my clock here, this person sitting at that slot machine. And they've been going for a long time and no big jackpots |
| 489 | 01:22:57 --> 01:23:04 | have been paid out. And they do what they get up and they walk away. And then immediately, boom, they jump me sit down and they play that machine. Why? |
| 490 | 01:23:04 --> 01:23:14 | Because those payouts are based on ratio, they'll they'll pay out based on a number of money going into it. That's how it works. That's their system. It's |
| 491 | 01:23:14 --> 01:23:22 | played enough times, eventually they'll make more money than they have to pay out. But you're just trying to make a little bit of money. The people that are |
| 492 | 01:23:22 --> 01:23:31 | cruising in the aisles waiting for the dumb money to get up away from their machine. That's what you're doing as a trader. St. Money's in here trying to |
| 493 | 01:23:31 --> 01:23:39 | expect this load to be taken out as support to be eventually broken, or even maybe retested. Because that's what the book said, look at we went down here and |
| 494 | 01:23:39 --> 01:23:47 | bounced away. Now in my mind, I'm going to look at these wicks like that. So if we open up a session in analysis and the market was trading down here, then I |
| 495 | 01:23:47 --> 01:24:00 | would be expecting reversal patterns the form on the daily, the weekly the four hour chart and then once I get some kind of confirmation there, then I can trust |
| 496 | 01:24:00 --> 01:24:11 | going into a hourly 15 minute five minute chart and by by Sanibel sells on efficiency fair value gaps or by down close candles after displacement. And then |
| 497 | 01:24:11 --> 01:24:20 | I'll have an order block. Oh, you missed it didn't You didn't write that down. These are the parts of your history writing down |
| 498 | 01:24:22 --> 01:24:35 | those factors that are agreeing it gives you bias. It helps you frame a narrative narrative essentially by definition is understanding how the market |
| 499 | 01:24:35 --> 01:24:48 | will price an asset where it can do the Maximum Carnage for the Express purposes of unseating potentially profitable speculators and then assuming their position |
| 500 | 01:24:49 --> 01:24:57 | and then quickly running in direction that allows them to profit but affords nobody really a state of mind to they can go right back in and feel like they're |
| 501 | 01:24:57 --> 01:25:08 | doing a thing by reentering it If that's what narrative is, for me, I'm looking for Maximum Carnage and harm for the less informed traders, I can see what is |
| 502 | 01:25:08 --> 01:25:17 | going to be the reason or catalyst for them to lose or enter too early or on the wrong side of the marketplace. And when price delivers that very thing, that is |
| 503 | 01:25:17 --> 01:25:25 | the thing that gives me the green light that I can now take a trade. Because I've seen the manipulation, I'm not trying to be a part of the manipulation, |
| 504 | 01:25:25 --> 01:25:36 | where I'm a victim of it, I'm watching it unfold. It's like, you know, there's going to be a car accident. If you ever seen a train hit a car, it's this like |
| 505 | 01:25:36 --> 01:25:45 | that you can't stop that train. It's not a moral dilemma. You can't, by yourself, move that car that the person saw, they can't get out of the way the |
| 506 | 01:25:45 --> 01:25:53 | train they got out of the car, they got their their children on the car, so no one's alive in that car, they're at a safe distance away from it. And you're all |
| 507 | 01:25:53 --> 01:26:04 | speculating about how far that car is going to be thrown in the air. You can't stop it. There's no moral dilemma there for me, I'm going to watch that train, |
| 508 | 01:26:04 --> 01:26:15 | blow through this car, I'm going to make sure I'm safely away from it. So I'm not gonna get harmed by it. But when that happens, the train passes, I have an |
| 509 | 01:26:15 --> 01:26:24 | opportunity to engage. That means the traffic that's piled up behind me is going to want to go where I'm gonna go on the other side of that track and get out of |
| 510 | 01:26:24 --> 01:26:33 | there before all the other things that usually happen in that situation. Fire trucks, you can't move everybody's there. The same thing with price. I'm waiting |
| 511 | 01:26:33 --> 01:26:44 | for Maximum Carnage. The manipulation is a timed event. You see it on economic calendar. When there is no economic calendar event, then I heavily rely on |
| 512 | 01:26:44 --> 01:26:54 | macros macros are those 20 minute intervals. The first 10 minutes in the I'm sorry, the last 10 minutes of the hour that you're in, and then we start a new |
| 513 | 01:26:54 --> 01:27:12 | hour. It's the first 10 minutes. Every single trading hour is a macro that he just say that yes, I did. You awake? Boring? Yeah, you're awake now, aren't you? |
| 514 | 01:27:12 --> 01:27:22 | Oh, shit. I said he's screaming again. It's audience management, folks, I gotta get you awake. Every single app, remember, I told you I can treat every single |
| 515 | 01:27:22 --> 01:27:38 | 30 minute and 60 minute candle. Because there is a macro. That 20 minute interval is there on every single hour. Now, the ones that cause intermediate |
| 516 | 01:27:38 --> 01:27:56 | terms in market structure changing and turning are the ones that like 950 to 10:10am 1050 to 11:10am. Then you have 150 to 2:10pm. And you have 250 to |
| 517 | 01:27:56 --> 01:28:08 | 3:10pm. They are the ones that you should study them first. But when you get really good with knowing what it is you're trying to look for. I'm not done with |
| 518 | 01:28:08 --> 01:28:17 | that yet. But I'm giving you a lot of foundation here. This is what would look like filler in a book. You know, there's many chapters unless you understand and |
| 519 | 01:28:17 --> 01:28:28 | appreciate what I'm showing discussing here today. And we're going to apply in real price action, you won't be able to appreciate the level of wow factor, |
| 520 | 01:28:28 --> 01:28:37 | because it clears a lot of the questions that you have about what it is you should be doing what you shouldn't be doing. When things should happen. What do |
| 521 | 01:28:37 --> 01:28:48 | you get when you have a news driver that is a 10 o'clock news event on a day where you have a seasonal tendency behind you. And the market structure |
| 522 | 01:28:48 --> 01:28:54 | supposing that it moves in that same direction with the seasonal tendency implies, and you have a high impact news driver or a medium impact news driver |
| 523 | 01:28:54 --> 01:29:05 | at 10 o'clock, you think you're gonna have a good move at that time. You're damn right you are. And if it's done Maximum Carnage by going higher, slightly |
| 524 | 01:29:05 --> 01:29:14 | higher. And then at 10 o'clock that news traffic was a little bit higher than all the highs. It's been there but you've been bearish. That's so beautiful |
| 525 | 01:29:14 --> 01:29:21 | because I will take that as a turtle suit and I'll sell short. And then when it has a shift in market structure bearishly I'm going to sell the first fair value |
| 526 | 01:29:21 --> 01:29:32 | got this bearish. I'm going to add on a breaker that's bearish. And I'm going to keep building every new pyramid of entry I can that's an up close candle as soon |
| 527 | 01:29:32 --> 01:29:42 | as it touches the low that up close candle on the timeframe I'm trading, I'm going to add another smaller position size and pyramid on it until I get to 60% |
| 528 | 01:29:42 --> 01:29:52 | of the range. Okay, it's still unrealized that means 40% of the move has already happen. Then I stop here meaning I don't want to take any more pyramiding |
| 529 | 01:29:52 --> 01:30:01 | entries at 50% of the range. I'm expecting to see payment on that trade. Why? Because I want to keep my last entry in my A pyramid of entry, where I'm |
| 530 | 01:30:01 --> 01:30:09 | building into positions where I start with like, six contracts. And then I'll do four contracts. And then I'll do three, and I'll add two, and then I'll add one, |
| 531 | 01:30:09 --> 01:30:21 | I want that last one to be in the upper 40% of the range that is expected to be delivered to me, as my profitable trade. There's rules to this stuff is not |
| 532 | 01:30:21 --> 01:30:29 | random, I'm not just pulling stuff out my rear end, because it just sounds good to talk about, I'm repeating these things all the time, go back and look at my |
| 533 | 01:30:29 --> 01:30:40 | execution videos. I can't edit it, I can't make them seem like I'm doing that, at that's exactly what I'm doing. On the days that I want to do something, all |
| 534 | 01:30:40 --> 01:30:49 | things being equal. That's how I'm doing it. Now what happens if you start trading like that, when you have a very selective process of knowing, when |
| 535 | 01:30:49 --> 01:30:56 | you're trying to do something, when you're not trying to do something, you're gonna have a greater command over your emotions, the psychological impact of |
| 536 | 01:30:56 --> 01:31:07 | what you're trying to do, or you're trying to avoid losing trades. By default, this will maximize the likelihood of you not suffering as many losses will not |
| 537 | 01:31:07 --> 01:31:17 | prevent 100% likelihood of being profitable or unprofitable, there's nothing there ever going to be something that removes that likelihood of you losing, |
| 538 | 01:31:18 --> 01:31:27 | that's always going to be there. And the reason why that's always going to be a constant is because manipulation is always likely to occur. And that |
| 539 | 01:31:27 --> 01:31:34 | uncertainty, the things that you don't see coming, that's going to be the catalyst for you taking a losing trade. And if you think that losing trades are |
| 540 | 01:31:34 --> 01:31:46 | going to be the end of you, then you can't be a trader. You can't. Okay, so when we're looking for bias, and trying to derive a bias, I start on a monthly chart, |
| 541 | 01:31:46 --> 01:31:56 | and I'm gonna see where we are. We're here. Where did we come from? We came from recently, this low here. Why did it react there? What I've just explained over |
| 542 | 01:31:56 --> 01:32:09 | here, taking out the sell side, we rebounds this inefficiency. So really, what have we said here? We've completed every necessary thing for a discount. Well, |
| 543 | 01:32:09 --> 01:32:12 | how do I determined the discount? How is that a discount? |
| 544 | 01:32:19 --> 01:32:21 | Here's one of those instances where you can copy |
| 545 | 01:32:28 --> 01:32:38 | that's fine. These are my settings for fit. Okay, so screenshot. Alright, so here is premium. This is the high it's been during all this drop down, and this |
| 546 | 01:32:38 --> 01:32:51 | is the lowest point it's been in. So this your range for determining premium to discount. Equilibrium is midway. It trades up to it here. Notice it did that |
| 547 | 01:32:51 --> 01:33:02 | from high to low, it came right back up to midpoint equilibrium. If you're bearish equilibrium is premium. It can be treated as what think of it as like |
| 548 | 01:33:02 --> 01:33:14 | resistance in terms of retail theory. But there's nothing over here that's resistance. See that? There's nothing here definable in terms of classic support |
| 549 | 01:33:14 --> 01:33:25 | resistance. So it's just the measuring of overbought, oversold in the context to the range in which the the price has been offered to us that high to that low. |
| 550 | 01:33:25 --> 01:33:37 | We are still in what area of price action relative to that range, below equilibrium. So we are still all this as discount, we're in a discount market. |
| 551 | 01:33:38 --> 01:33:48 | Now, is it likely that the dollar is going to go higher or lower given this information? Well, that remains determining on what it is that we just left |
| 552 | 01:33:48 --> 01:33:57 | from. We went higher from this low which was a reaction off of the consequent encroachment of this wick. When the wick went down there it did two things It |
| 553 | 01:33:58 --> 01:34:13 | disrupted the sell side stops here and it rebounds this so pray tell why does it need to go back down here? It doesn't. What has it not done? It hasn't made its |
| 554 | 01:34:13 --> 01:34:31 | way on a closing basis above equilibrium. And watch this high here that liquidity is by sight I wish I would have had this stuff when I first started. |
| 555 | 01:34:33 --> 01:34:37 | We better totally miss coming in |
| 556 | 01:34:46 --> 01:34:58 | Okay, so right away. What this does is this tells me because I've done qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, I've based all of my premise on |
| 557 | 01:34:58 --> 01:35:09 | the fact that what do i out here, I have a range from this high to that low. And we're inside that range. Is it more likely that we're going to go above this |
| 558 | 01:35:09 --> 01:35:20 | high or below this low right now? Well, if you were looking at in terms of the closest proximity, most people would say, well, it's probably going to go down |
| 559 | 01:35:20 --> 01:35:31 | below that low. I'm not thinking that, I'm thinking that we're staying in a discount right now, for a larger, longer term price run higher. Here's the |
| 560 | 01:35:31 --> 01:35:44 | kicker, I do not need this high to be taken out. And I don't believe that this load needs to be retreated to because we've had confirmation here. Consequent |
| 561 | 01:35:44 --> 01:35:53 | curriculum was offered and displays higher, we had sell side taken with that drop here, and it also rebounds, that's every possible thing, that would |
| 562 | 01:35:53 --> 01:36:03 | constitute a reason for the market to turn higher. So the work essentially has been done on the discount level, on this chart on the monthly, now we have to do |
| 563 | 01:36:03 --> 01:36:12 | the same thing on the weekly, the daily, and any timeframe, less than a daily chart that you use for trades. And I'll leave that up for whatever it is because |
| 564 | 01:36:12 --> 01:36:25 | we will be needing a whole month to cover what it is I want to cover. So what I'm saying in plainest simplest terms is we already went above this gap on that |
| 565 | 01:36:25 --> 01:36:33 | sellside amounts by some efficiency, we should have been looking for it to drop here, if this was going to continue going lower. And it didn't it just kept |
| 566 | 01:36:33 --> 01:36:43 | going higher. You have mean threshold of this down close candle, which is a bullish order block. It trades to it here. Did it react higher? Yes, it did. It |
| 567 | 01:36:43 --> 01:36:55 | went above this inefficiency here. So what is left from the upside, or in a premium perspective, this high in this inefficiency in here. So this |
| 568 | 01:37:01 --> 01:37:10 | confluence of this high having by stops, and inside this inefficiency. And if we split that in half and get the constant encouragement, or midpoint of that gap, |
| 569 | 01:37:12 --> 01:37:19 | you have a high degree of probability. I trust I believe, I'm not saying that you should. |
| 570 | 01:37:25 --> 01:37:38 | This 50% is equilibrium when that range from the highest high and the low that we were just talking about. And right in here. This little shaded area has by |
| 571 | 01:37:38 --> 01:37:49 | side and up to the midpoint of this cell side and balanced by Senate efficiency. I do not need you don't need it to trade above the midpoint that gap to find |
| 572 | 01:37:49 --> 01:38:03 | opportunity. So where we are right now. We're in discount. Where have we come from? A deeper discount, a rebalancing sellside been taken. We had confirmation |
| 573 | 01:38:03 --> 01:38:12 | given to us here with the consequent question on that wick, we displaced higher, and we broke through what would normally be expected to see what hit in here and |
| 574 | 01:38:12 --> 01:38:26 | go lower. It hasn't done that. So the untapped opportunity is by side hasn't been taken in that range. And the inefficiency over here and we haven't gone |
| 575 | 01:38:26 --> 01:38:34 | above equilibrium on a closing basis. So there's three factors right there just on the monthly chart that tells me higher dollar eventually. Does that mean go |
| 576 | 01:38:34 --> 01:38:45 | out there right now at 941 and D long dollar short everything else? No, it doesn't mean that. But that's this. That's the stepping stone. Okay? So you |
| 577 | 01:38:45 --> 01:38:52 | build your foundation on bias and premise with that context. So I'm gonna take this off here and we're going to drop down into a daily chart |
| 578 | 01:39:09 --> 01:39:22 | Alright, so now having this stuff on the charts like this. That's that's a, that's a measurement also, because it's, like consolidating around that. You're |
| 579 | 01:39:22 --> 01:39:25 | probably asking yourself, What do you mean go back out |
| 580 | 01:39:34 --> 01:39:45 | that low to that high. That's this level here. This level here is equilibrium. |
| 581 | 01:39:50 --> 01:40:01 | The range of that high to that low. Just keep your eye on this level here. Okay, watch. I'm gonna take this off. See ya As appears, that's the low of that shaded |
| 582 | 01:40:01 --> 01:40:15 | box. That's halfway or equilibrium, the midway point of the range from that high to that low. This one here is the upper line. That is the level that creates the |
| 583 | 01:40:16 --> 01:40:26 | midpoint of this inefficiency from here to here. And I'll show you that by deleting it, see how it goes away. So that gives you the calibrations to when we |
| 584 | 01:40:26 --> 01:40:33 | drop in a lot of timeframes. That's what those levels are. In your charts, you may want to put a little line segment on it and annotate it with you know, |
| 585 | 01:40:34 --> 01:40:52 | monthly cell side and balance by sudden efficiency, consequent encroachment. And that will look like M dash s IB I see, two that gives you all the details as to |
| 586 | 01:40:52 --> 01:41:00 | what you're looking at a lower timeframe. Otherwise, you won't know what that level is for you. You don't know if that line is. Okay. So with that said, let's |
| 587 | 01:41:00 --> 01:41:16 | go back down into the weekly I think it was before. So here we have the weekly chart. And the same thing here. Now we look at what it is that is likely to |
| 588 | 01:41:16 --> 01:41:30 | occur inside that little blue box. That's the drawing liquidity for ICT, Michael, I believe that that's where the dollar index can draw to. But now when |
| 589 | 01:41:30 --> 01:41:46 | we entered into the the weekly chart, we have new imbalances. Short term by side, relative equal highs. It does not change this, it confirms and in my |
| 590 | 01:41:46 --> 01:41:59 | opinion, it qualifies it more as a likely draw on liquidity. And if this is true, and time will remain the deciding factor here. If it draws up to here, you |
| 591 | 01:41:59 --> 01:42:07 | want to go through your charts and back test every turning point that unfolds from this point forward until it gets up to here. Okay. We have this |
| 592 | 01:42:07 --> 01:42:18 | inefficiency right there. You can draw that out. I'm not going to but I'm going to show you how it went down into that by Sanibel and sellside inefficiency and |
| 593 | 01:42:18 --> 01:42:36 | it touched exactly on its consequent encroachment. The low is on that candle 105 point 414 It went just below it enough to hit it but not drastically below. Did |
| 594 | 01:42:36 --> 01:42:53 | it react there? Yes. Then we opened trade it down. We can have initial because it's Monday we could see it drop down and close in this inefficiency. Personally |
| 595 | 01:42:53 --> 01:43:03 | I'd like to see some of this left open Why Why does ICT like to talk about certain candles that are a fairly I get what does he like to see some of it not |
| 596 | 01:43:03 --> 01:43:17 | close in the fact that we're where we are in price. We've already came down and traded into an order block that's this one here is down close candle with a fair |
| 597 | 01:43:17 --> 01:43:27 | value got it dropped down once twice into the fairway get that's formed in touch the order block the last enclosed candle within the context of outline it that's |
| 598 | 01:43:27 --> 01:43:35 | why this is a down close candle that we can call over a block all the things that I had been jawboning on from the monthly chart trading down into or not |
| 599 | 01:43:35 --> 01:43:46 | trading down, but adjusting our focus to now a weekly chart, the down closed candle in this instance here that constitutes and makes that a valid waterblock. |
| 600 | 01:43:47 --> 01:44:01 | That's not a demand zone. That's not a engulfing candle that does this or that it is an order block. The opening price of this candle right there. That is the |
| 601 | 01:44:01 --> 01:44:12 | change in the state of delivery of price, meaning that is the very trigger. That's the catalyst if not this range. It's not a zone, I'm not looking at zoom. |
| 602 | 01:44:13 --> 01:44:22 | I could care less about supply and demand. It's a fallacy to me, all they've done is taken support resistance levels, and made it more ambiguous by calling |
| 603 | 01:44:22 --> 01:44:30 | it a zone How the hell are you going to find the right price inside that? How are you going to do that? How are you going to do it consistently and be able to |
| 604 | 01:44:30 --> 01:44:42 | say this is what I'm going to use all the time. They don't teach that you have to figure out something still. Okay, I've done all the figuring I know what |
| 605 | 01:44:42 --> 01:44:55 | price I'm looking for. So if we're seeing how prices are reacted here and show displacement, it rallied up into this high. There's a lot of overflow that's |
| 606 | 01:44:55 --> 01:45:05 | going on and remember this is a weekly chart. upper left hand corner you see it's a weekly chart of the dollar index, we're still just working out the risk |
| 607 | 01:45:05 --> 01:45:14 | on risk off. It doesn't take you this long. It's taking me this long. So I want you to understand, I want you to know why I do certain things when I do it, why |
| 608 | 01:45:14 --> 01:45:22 | I am not interested in certain other things. And when I'm going to consider other things that we've yet to talk about, because I'm trying to teach you how |
| 609 | 01:45:22 --> 01:45:31 | to do it without having me help you anymore, you want to have that meant that mentality that's independent. That's what I'm trying to foster in you. I don't |
| 610 | 01:45:31 --> 01:45:40 | want to I don't want to spend my days doing long winded talk things. I do it so that way, it helps answer a lot of questions, if you don't see coming to me. And |
| 611 | 01:45:40 --> 01:45:51 | I'm doing a great deal of, or putting forth a great deal of effort to make sure that I'm communicating it to you in a manner that I can only do it this way. I |
| 612 | 01:45:51 --> 01:45:59 | don't know how to do it any better than that. And I've already said, I'm not the best mentor. But to understand what it is I'm doing, this is exactly what I do. |
| 613 | 01:46:00 --> 01:46:08 | So when I do it, you can have a framework to say, Okay, this is what he does. But it doesn't take this long. When you do it, like I said, I go through the |
| 614 | 01:46:08 --> 01:46:22 | dollar index, I do the indices, you the Dow, the NASDAQ, the s&p, I use a handful of major currencies like the pound, the euro, to solidify risk on risk |
| 615 | 01:46:22 --> 01:46:31 | off, that doesn't mean they all have to move in concert with one another. We will talk about forex, to kind of like build in the comfort level that it still |
| 616 | 01:46:31 --> 01:46:41 | works there too. But there's also details that you want to be able to glean from using the concepts even if you don't trade other asset classes, their input, |
| 617 | 01:46:41 --> 01:46:50 | technically will support or negate an idea. Or it'll have a factor that weighs on me in terms of how much I'm willing to risk per trade, that everything is in |
| 618 | 01:46:50 --> 01:46:59 | agreement. And that's like a lead pipe cinch trade like that's, that's a given, it's going to happen. But if I have half of the things I look at that is telling |
| 619 | 01:46:59 --> 01:47:08 | me yeah, these things should be going lower. When $1 goes higher, I'm not going to risk my maximum amount of leverage because of that factor. You see how all |
| 620 | 01:47:08 --> 01:47:17 | these things, there's rules, there's rules to these things. And it helps you graduate to a level of comfort, because you're following rule based ideas, and |
| 621 | 01:47:17 --> 01:47:27 | processes and protocols. So that way, your attention is focused on adhering to that process or protocol versus them. I'm gonna make money. It's just gonna stop |
| 622 | 01:47:27 --> 01:47:33 | me what's going on? Who's doing what with another? Let me let me pull up this live stream and see if they're trading the Dalit day because I'm looking at the |
| 623 | 01:47:33 --> 01:47:39 | NASDAQ. I want to make sure I'm picking the how do you know that person's even going to have the right one to you're guessing whether or not you have the right |
| 624 | 01:47:39 --> 01:47:47 | one? Just trade one. If you get stopped out, who cares? If you have a system that works, you're going to get a winning trade, and that loss will be |
| 625 | 01:47:48 --> 01:47:55 | mitigated. But it doesn't need to be mitigated immediately. But that's what you want, because you have tick tock mentality. Give it to me right now. And it's |
| 626 | 01:47:55 --> 01:48:05 | three days later already. So we've had this inefficiency traded to and displacement three upside. Now we have this inefficiency here. And we trade it |
| 627 | 01:48:05 --> 01:48:24 | down to here. There, and now we want to see price. Ideally, leave this open. But because all of the news events that's due out this week, what what can we allow |
| 628 | 01:48:24 --> 01:48:36 | for in our analysis? Are we going to demand that it stays open and be hard lined about dogmatic? It's it has to stay open because ICT said so no, I would prefer |
| 629 | 01:48:36 --> 01:48:47 | that stay open and not completely come all back down and touch this candle is high, I'd prefer that it doesn't do that. Because if it does that, and remains |
| 630 | 01:48:47 --> 01:48:59 | open here, that this swing low on the weekly chart can be trusted. And it's probably going to move, if not this entire week going into next week, up into |
| 631 | 01:48:59 --> 01:49:12 | here to draw to that bicep, because the stops here, they made money, but they're squeezing on them. And because there's no inefficiency in here now, in this |
| 632 | 01:49:12 --> 01:49:23 | range, what is there? It's the focus on the stops. And those stops also reside in a monthly inefficiency over here that doesn't look all that inefficient until |
| 633 | 01:49:23 --> 01:49:35 | we get over here. So I'm not trying to make a hard line case that we're going to trade up into here. I don't need that. What's the low hanging fruit? Where's |
| 634 | 01:49:35 --> 01:49:44 | that where's the level at which I need to focus on is all I need to worry about for this given week or this given day or session that the likelihood that the |
| 635 | 01:49:44 --> 01:49:48 | market could gravitate to here |
| 636 | 01:49:50 --> 01:49:58 | and for all the reasons and factors I've already mentioned. But let's say you're a scalper and you don't have the confidence or the ability to stay with the |
| 637 | 01:49:58 --> 01:50:06 | trade because you don't have the experience. Yep, you have to learn how to do that over time by taking demo account trades and tape reading and staying in it |
| 638 | 01:50:06 --> 01:50:14 | when you feel like you want to get out to stay with it and see what happens. Don't show your stop loss too tight, don't strangle it. And just let it happen. |
| 639 | 01:50:15 --> 01:50:28 | If it can't encourage you to hold to this type of move up here, where's the next short term bicep. That's this high here. So you could take that |
| 640 | 01:50:35 --> 01:50:44 | and that would be your short term scalping, draw on liquidity for today, tomorrow and Wednesday. Now, that's not a lot in terms of range. But it's enough |
| 641 | 01:50:44 --> 01:50:57 | for you to take a euro and cable trading. If it runs here, for the dollar index, that's going to send the pound and the fiber market Euro dollar in POUND DOLLAR |
| 642 | 01:50:58 --> 01:51:09 | lower because dollar up causes what risk off risk off will be assets decline, there's no interest in buying them. So they'll go to a discount to encourage |
| 643 | 01:51:09 --> 01:51:20 | purchase. So this is the drawl and liquidity on the very, very short term, intermediate term. It's this one here longer term. This inefficiency here, which |
| 644 | 01:51:20 --> 01:51:29 | is both weekly and monthly. And then maybe, but I'm not going to tell you because it's so many uncertainties it's in, in the economic climate right now, |
| 645 | 01:51:29 --> 01:51:37 | I'm not going to sell the idea that I'm going to say it's gonna go up here, it could, if we have a nuclear bomb dropped off any country in the Middle East or |
| 646 | 01:51:37 --> 01:51:50 | even in mainland us, nothing's off the table, you're gonna see dollar go 135 150 Because that's a shock that no one's ready and prepared for. But I'm telling |
| 647 | 01:51:50 --> 01:52:03 | you, we're gonna see that, we'll see it before we'll see it. Let's just leave it at that. I gotta be careful when I say here, I'm on YouTube, the short term |
| 648 | 01:52:03 --> 01:52:12 | drawn liquidities here, enemy turn draw is here. Now. With that we can drop down to the daily chart. And then we finally made our way down to it. Now we have |
| 649 | 01:52:12 --> 01:52:27 | this inefficiency. And look how many times we've been in here once I'm sorry, once. See where they're lower, lower, lower. All we down into here. Notice that |
| 650 | 01:52:27 --> 01:52:38 | we completely went outside the range of this buyside unbalanced cells on an efficiency but it was only on the basis of what the wick What did I teach you? |
| 651 | 01:52:39 --> 01:52:50 | The wicks do damage the bodies tell you see the story or the narrative. The bodies are stopping inside of that inefficiency. See that? I'm going to show you |
| 652 | 01:52:50 --> 01:52:53 | here in a different color. So it pops |
| 653 | 01:53:01 --> 01:53:11 | Okay, so we dug down bodies are telling you the narrative. It's the storyline. Yeah, we went down that did that level. But that's the weekly charts, fair value |
| 654 | 01:53:11 --> 01:53:19 | gaps consequent encroachment. It's the midpoint of the weekly. So the price delivery continuum, moving from the higher timeframe down a lower timeframe. |
| 655 | 01:53:19 --> 01:53:29 | We're teaching you how to effectively look at it algorithmically from the top down, not using retail logic, not using support resistance using inefficiency |
| 656 | 01:53:29 --> 01:53:45 | and order block. It's one or the other. That's the turning points, okay. The turning points are going to be liquidity based, or inefficiency based entries |
| 657 | 01:53:45 --> 01:53:57 | are always formed on the basis of inefficiencies being reached retreated to or order blocks being repriced, to. If you don't have that written down, you missed |
| 658 | 01:53:57 --> 01:54:08 | it. So the bodies are telling us what we have done what we need to do. Yeah, we went lower, but don't be don't be scared. Now. Don't be afraid. Even here on |
| 659 | 01:54:08 --> 01:54:22 | this candle here on this daily candlestick. We went just a little bit outside of the range that frames that fair Vega. So when you look at my live examples, |
| 660 | 01:54:22 --> 01:54:31 | where I've also talked about live and did type late like tape reading with you, and I'll say, Okay, this is normal. This is completely permissible. It's outside |
| 661 | 01:54:31 --> 01:54:40 | of the range of the fair value gap, but it's a mohawk. It's like a little tiny coloring outside the lines. And I use the analogy if you have a child and you |
| 662 | 01:54:40 --> 01:54:47 | give them a coloring book page color, they colored outside the lines, but you're never going to tell your child look at this, you idiot. Look at this. You messed |
| 663 | 01:54:47 --> 01:54:54 | up, look how you call it so I want you're not doing that. They colored it and you put it where you put it at your desk at work. You hang on your refrigerator. |
| 664 | 01:54:55 --> 01:55:06 | You have an affinity for that. Well when I see my An algorithm constantly doing what I want it to do. I had that same thing I expect it in certain instances to |
| 665 | 01:55:06 --> 01:55:14 | color outside the line, how do I know when it's likely to do that, because I want a higher timeframe, like we just had on that weekly chart. That's this |
| 666 | 01:55:14 --> 01:55:27 | inefficiency. Here hear that these these levels here, it only went down to halfway point, have it rewind the video, I have it on DVR setting so that way, |
| 667 | 01:55:28 --> 01:55:35 | if I say something, you can quickly rewrite it and then click the Live button. I'm not deleting anything, every video I put up is never getting deleted. Okay, |
| 668 | 01:55:35 --> 01:55:41 | the live streams don't get deleted. So if you can't watch the whole thing, we can't stay with the whole session. It'll be here when you come back to watch it. |
| 669 | 01:55:42 --> 01:55:53 | But this dropping down in the lower timeframes that is absolutely permissible, because of the higher timeframe, inefficiency. Now, how far can it trade down, |
| 670 | 01:55:53 --> 01:55:55 | it could have ultimately traded all the way down to here. |
| 671 | 01:55:57 --> 01:55:57 | I want to wick |
| 672 | 01:55:59 --> 01:56:05 | why, because it's a weekly chart inefficiency. That's the low of the inefficiency on the weekly chart in the high was that level in the midpoint of |
| 673 | 01:56:05 --> 01:56:15 | it here. That's why it went down there. But now because we have had multiple instances of this, and we have one more pass here, and it didn't go below that |
| 674 | 01:56:15 --> 01:56:27 | low on this one here. Where I would have demanded had done that. If we can keep this candlestick from closing below here. Everything I'm talking about, I'm |
| 675 | 01:56:27 --> 01:56:38 | still sticking with a bullish dollar. That means risk off. That means that yeah, in this season might rally on short term. But I'm more interested in eventually |
| 676 | 01:56:38 --> 01:56:50 | seeing it roll over and give me an instance where I can get short because of the underlying risk off scenario that may be unfolding in the future. So that right |
| 677 | 01:56:50 --> 01:57:06 | there is the 85 to 90% framework of how I determine daily bias. Now, how do we segue from the daily bias to a session bias? Well, we've been trading at 950, I |
| 678 | 01:57:06 --> 01:57:18 | did a good job, I want to make sure I was in the indices by 10 o'clock because the opening range has done. So we're gonna go into NASDAQ, NASDAQ. And we are on |
| 679 | 01:57:18 --> 01:57:30 | a daily chart. So we have no news, really to speak of. That's all that impact today. We have huge news events tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Okay, |
| 680 | 01:57:30 --> 01:57:42 | so if you're going to be looking for trades, today, try to keep them as a scalp because the large range deliveries, the big runs the big moves. In other words, |
| 681 | 01:57:42 --> 01:57:53 | don't try to demand 100 handle run on NASDAQ today, it's highly unlikely it's not probable, because that's being reserved, all that movement is being reserved |
| 682 | 01:57:53 --> 01:58:05 | for these impact drivers is going to release Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. So it's like expecting to see your favorite baseball team, the come to |
| 683 | 01:58:05 --> 01:58:13 | the corridor and get a signature from them the day before the game, you might be there, ready to stand there and hold your little pen or hat out for a signature, |
| 684 | 01:58:14 --> 01:58:23 | but they're not there. So the big plays aren't going to be here today. They're going to be there tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. So the reason why I |
| 685 | 01:58:23 --> 01:58:33 | timed this, whether you would have put 10,000 likes on the post or not I was going to do this. But it's this week, I wanted to teach bias because this is the |
| 686 | 01:58:33 --> 01:58:44 | week that's the hardest one to derive it. But the things I've said about when it's not this week, are so simple, that you'll be able to be fine with it. Okay. |
| 687 | 01:58:44 --> 01:58:52 | But this week, you want to try to avoid holding a daily bias over yourself. Because you're not going to know the daily bias I don't have a daily bias. |
| 688 | 01:58:53 --> 01:59:03 | There's too many catalysts where the market did go into a wild, just craziness. It's trust me this week is gonna be crazy down. You're gonna see a lot of |
| 689 | 01:59:03 --> 01:59:13 | volatility, you're gonna see price runs that are going to go against what should be obvious. So what does that mean? You need to be a scalper this week. You need |
| 690 | 01:59:13 --> 01:59:22 | to be a scalper pick your shots. When you get the the range, you're looking for your 1015 maybe 20 handles, be content with that, take majority of the trade off |
| 691 | 01:59:22 --> 01:59:31 | and then see what you can get on any kind of runner. But don't hold with great deal conviction that you're gonna get this one sidedness. It could happen, but |
| 692 | 01:59:31 --> 01:59:39 | it's more likely that it won't, because we have all these things that are happening on same week. We have FOMC rate announcement. We have Non Farm |
| 693 | 01:59:39 --> 01:59:48 | Payroll, we have good grief everything else that was listed on the economic calendar. So while it will present a great deal of magnitude in terms of up and |
| 694 | 01:59:48 --> 01:59:59 | down volatility, and that's wonderful for short term intraday trading. It's problematic for sustained one sided runs, which is what daily bias has helped |
| 695 | 01:59:59 --> 02:00:14 | You focus on daily bias, the only real essential necessity that I attribute to it is for a new trader, what side of the marketplace should you focus on? If |
| 696 | 02:00:14 --> 02:00:24 | it's one sidedness and it's bullish, then you should be looking for those macro times are the opening range, once it's completed, that will give you the Intel |
| 697 | 02:00:25 --> 02:00:39 | to tell you when if your buy is is likely to be trusted. filtering out going against daily bias, you can because you don't have experience, that right there |
| 698 | 02:00:39 --> 02:00:46 | will limit your exposure to risk, because you won't be trying to go against the daily bias and you won't get tripped up when the market starts to move |
| 699 | 02:00:46 --> 02:00:55 | parabolically against what your daily bias is, you don't get tricked into chasing price. And if you do it wrong, it's okay because you're gonna do it |
| 700 | 02:00:55 --> 02:01:06 | wrong forever. Given enough time to trade in a month, you're gonna you're gonna have losing trades. Trading is managing losing positions. That's what trading |
| 701 | 02:01:06 --> 02:01:18 | is, all your entire career as a trader is going to be you managing equity drawdown, everybody has it, everybody experiences it. And where do you go from |
| 702 | 02:01:18 --> 02:01:26 | there, that's what trading is, in your goal is to make money by the end of the year, you can't determine how much you're going to earn. But in the beginning, |
| 703 | 02:01:26 --> 02:01:34 | you have to keep the money aspect out of it. Because if that's the reason why you're trying to learn how to do it in a rushed pace, that's going to be the |
| 704 | 02:01:34 --> 02:01:45 | very catalyst while you blow up if you're only looking at it from one side, because that's the side that you want to experience. So with that said, we have |
| 705 | 02:01:46 --> 02:01:56 | on the daily chart, the market has moved from this high, down to that low, so we have a range. I'm picking this candlestick high, because it's the up close |
| 706 | 02:01:56 --> 02:02:14 | candle and it's the highest high. And that low, okay, we are essentially above equilibrium. We've closed it there. So we're above equilibrium, on Friday, and |
| 707 | 02:02:14 --> 02:02:25 | then we have today we're sitting around in an indecisive day, which is classic for what the economic calendar shows us. To the left of that we have this right |
| 708 | 02:02:25 --> 02:02:28 | here. What kind of inefficiency is that? |
| 709 | 02:02:35 --> 02:02:44 | sellside unbalanced by some inefficiency, it's a down close inefficiency or fair Vega, which is a city s IBI. |
| 710 | 02:03:00 --> 02:03:08 | That 15 comments are gonna come to me, you could do this if you do this, this that hold control and I know. So this sell side unbalanced by selling |
| 711 | 02:03:08 --> 02:03:22 | efficiency. That is the premium drawl. So because of the volatility, because we mentioned how the dollar could trade lower a little bit. Because of the |
| 712 | 02:03:22 --> 02:03:32 | volatility, it's likely to be seen in witness because of all the economic calendar events, it's on the menu for this week. If the dollar drops down a |
| 713 | 02:03:32 --> 02:03:44 | little bit, it could send us into this fair value got here on the NASDAQ. So you want to have this level. And you also want to have the consequent encroachment |
| 714 | 02:03:44 --> 02:03:56 | and quadrant levels on that inefficiency. And I'll show you how to do that now. On your fib, you should have a setting down here for 0.75 and 0.25. What that |
| 715 | 02:03:56 --> 02:04:06 | will do is give you the upper and lower quadrant, that level right there is the midpoint, which would represent a consequent current of a gap or inefficiency or |
| 716 | 02:04:06 --> 02:04:16 | wick or it would be equilibrium in a dealing range. Okay, so an instance the high and low of the range that you're measuring. But these levels here that |
| 717 | 02:04:16 --> 02:04:28 | should be toggled. And what that'll do is it'll give you the gradient levels inside this inefficiency because we're on a daily chart. So, in plain English, I |
| 718 | 02:04:28 --> 02:04:41 | suspect that we will see us go into this range here. I am expecting it to trade to the low the lower quadrant and as much as the halfway point or consequent |
| 719 | 02:04:41 --> 02:05:01 | curtailment of this inefficiency. That is my Monday, Tuesday Wednesday, bias. That's all I'm holding for in terms of what it can do now. With that said But if |
| 720 | 02:05:01 --> 02:05:12 | it can go beyond this midpoint on a closing basis, but doesn't go up here yet, then I'll anticipate the market resuming. When it opens at six o'clock later in |
| 721 | 02:05:12 --> 02:05:20 | the evening time, I might take an Asian session trade to try to reach up in and get the inefficiency closed in. Or if it consolidates and drops back down to the |
| 722 | 02:05:20 --> 02:05:30 | low of that inefficiency during Asia tonight, going into London, in the morning, between two o'clock and five o'clock in the morning, Eastern Time, I might take |
| 723 | 02:05:30 --> 02:05:38 | a long if it did when I'm explaining. And then try to get a run up to get that closure there or tomorrow's New York session, I might be interested in seeing |
| 724 | 02:05:38 --> 02:05:48 | that trade there, you see how everything moves from if it does this, then I will do that. If it does this, but not that, then I have to sit on my hands and wait. |
| 725 | 02:05:49 --> 02:05:56 | It's not Well, I have a bias. So let's go out there and start pushing buttons. And then you wonder why you didn't get the results you're looking for. You have |
| 726 | 02:05:56 --> 02:06:06 | to take your time, pick your shots, know what you're looking for, but that knowing what to look for has to be in line with the time of the day. And since |
| 727 | 02:06:06 --> 02:06:17 | we have really nothing to be a major catalyst on economic counter that create some new big explosive type moves higher or lower. We can spend more time with |
| 728 | 02:06:17 --> 02:06:29 | this type of analysis to build where the market can go to, and why the White would be more likely to do this than then to go lower. So much like I just |
| 729 | 02:06:29 --> 02:06:39 | outlined with the dollar index, we can see the framework here we have the market turn here, rallied up, we had a single down close candle, it traded into this |
| 730 | 02:06:39 --> 02:06:50 | down close candle on the daily chart, that opening price is the very price that causes the change in the state of delivery. What that means is it will now |
| 731 | 02:06:50 --> 02:07:04 | change its directive to now seek premium inefficiency, or by sight or a combination of both. So my order block is not a supply and demand zone, I'm |
| 732 | 02:07:04 --> 02:07:14 | looking at the opening price. If it's a down close candle or an up close candle, that is the very trigger, that's the mechanism that's the price. That is the |
| 733 | 02:07:14 --> 02:07:22 | salient point. That's the bullet point. That's the the factor that you're looking at. That's the very thing that's the key crucial point of information, |
| 734 | 02:07:22 --> 02:07:34 | that opening price that is going to tell me everything I need to know in terms of where the markets going to reach for how it's going to deliver the speed, the |
| 735 | 02:07:34 --> 02:07:44 | magnitude is going to continue. And where that order block is in market structure is going to tell me if it's going to be a target, if it's going to be |
| 736 | 02:07:44 --> 02:07:52 | an initial entry, if it's going to be a factor for where my stop loss should be placed above or below respectively. All those things I'm going to be teaching |
| 737 | 02:07:52 --> 02:08:01 | you this week. But I can't compress it all in to the first lesson. And it's not important that you're you're watching this live. So if you're able to watch it |
| 738 | 02:08:01 --> 02:08:08 | afterwards, that's fine. But you're going to need to watch these three live streams several times, because there's gonna be a lot of information, three |
| 739 | 02:08:08 --> 02:08:18 | decades of it. But that opening price that is the change in the state of delivery, meaning that now because we what we're doing is we're going lower |
| 740 | 02:08:18 --> 02:08:29 | seeking a discount when we went above it, when the narrative suggested that we could potentially turn and go higher, the technical aspects to it is that down |
| 741 | 02:08:29 --> 02:08:41 | close candle is opening price. Now watch, I'm going to put this opening price right there. And we'll make it blue. So that way it's very large, it's |
| 742 | 02:08:41 --> 02:08:56 | prominent, you can see it we're gonna go down to lower timeframes in a moment, but that that price is like a it's like a like a trampoline. Think of it like |
| 743 | 02:08:56 --> 02:09:08 | that, okay, when price is above it and Trump trades back down into it, it'll, it'll create if it's good, it will create feedback in price delivery where it's |
| 744 | 02:09:08 --> 02:09:16 | I call that a signature if price on the lower timeframes are supporting or it rallies away from it then creates a fair value gap above it. I'll take that as a |
| 745 | 02:09:16 --> 02:09:28 | fair value gap entry into long if it's a scalp I'm gonna get 1050 handles doing him as I can and be done. And that's trading without advice light bulbs right. |
| 746 | 02:09:29 --> 02:09:43 | So we'll come back in a second but the market traded down here into that candlestick right there same thing we're gonna do a smaller one. ICT is |
| 747 | 02:09:43 --> 02:09:53 | delivering information on the order blocks. Now. Finally, there's so much there's so much stuff to it though. But this is the simple direct rate to the |
| 748 | 02:09:53 --> 02:10:03 | point set way it gives you useful information. down close candle. Where are we at in respect To the range from here to here, we're still in the discount, |
| 749 | 02:10:03 --> 02:10:15 | here's equilibrium price point. So this down close candle is absolutely crucial information for you taking trades. But this is a daily chart. So you have to |
| 750 | 02:10:15 --> 02:10:24 | allow for coloring outside the lines if you're using lower timeframes. So it can do a whole lot of things beyond that specific level. But I'm going to show you |
| 751 | 02:10:24 --> 02:10:33 | what you're looking for that count that constitutes and qualifies a setup. One that you would see me outline like when I was on Twitter saying, Okay, look at |
| 752 | 02:10:33 --> 02:10:40 | this one minute candle right now go back to this one minute candle. And then at that, that range, we're looking for that fair value gap. A lot of the goobers |
| 753 | 02:10:40 --> 02:10:47 | that were watching that went back and tried to take things out of context, and look, he was looking for a sell, you did not hear me say sell or buy, I'm taking |
| 754 | 02:10:47 --> 02:10:56 | your attention to that very fair value gap. Because if we can trade above it, will it be an inversion fair value, if it trades up to it and rejects it, then |
| 755 | 02:10:56 --> 02:11:04 | we can take that information and use for a subsequent setup or PDA array to get short whether it be an up close candle for bearish order block purposes, or a |
| 756 | 02:11:04 --> 02:11:13 | smaller timeframe, fair value, get the trades up into it, that would be a trigger point to get short. It's for me to teach you live where your attention |
| 757 | 02:11:13 --> 02:11:25 | should be. And by using that information in the context of a narrative and a bias, that's your full panoramic view of how to engage markets for trading |
| 758 | 02:11:25 --> 02:11:34 | purposes. But in the beginning, you shouldn't be pushing a button not even on a demo, you should be practicing in the studying how price delivers. Because then |
| 759 | 02:11:34 --> 02:11:43 | you can see it without any monetary reward, no pain and suffering if you did it wrong. Nobody saw you expect it to behave a certain way. And you journal that. |
| 760 | 02:11:44 --> 02:11:53 | And you sweet talk yourself saying I had fun. I enjoyed watching this today. And I learned that the market had difficulty not you the market had difficulty going |
| 761 | 02:11:53 --> 02:12:01 | below this specific PDA array. And I was thankful that I could observe when that occurred. And I'm going to do more resources to see why it did what it did there |
| 762 | 02:12:01 --> 02:12:12 | when the week closes. Where does that event fold, or I'm sorry for not open unfold in the grand scheme of the weekly range. So you're not getting any |
| 763 | 02:12:12 --> 02:12:21 | negative to your journal, you're identifying areas where maybe you were watching the tape live. Or maybe you did do a demonstrate. And it didn't pan out like you |
| 764 | 02:12:22 --> 02:12:32 | thought it would there, you're not vilifying yourself, you're not being highly critical in a negative sense. But you're very reasonably highlighting areas of |
| 765 | 02:12:32 --> 02:12:41 | opportunity for you to discover more information. So it's really important that you manage yourself that way in your journal. So we have two down close candles |
| 766 | 02:12:41 --> 02:12:50 | here to get bullish order block in the lower portion of the range, the lower half. Once we get into real close to the equilibrium price point. |
| 767 | 02:12:51 --> 02:13:02 | Order blocks can become 5050. And it really demands your understanding of why you think it should go higher anyway, because you could see a down closed candle |
| 768 | 02:13:02 --> 02:13:12 | at or just above equilibrium. But if you lose the sight of wherever here, can it trade too. It can be just trading to a short term premium and then collapse |
| 769 | 02:13:12 --> 02:13:20 | aggressively. And you may be thinking, Well, I'm using an ICT bullish order block, and it should go to the moon baby. And maybe you didn't use a stop loss |
| 770 | 02:13:20 --> 02:13:30 | because you think you're going to be right. And it comes back and does damage to you that one event that one trigger moment where you didn't do what you're |
| 771 | 02:13:30 --> 02:13:40 | supposed to do. Because you had everything all in Texas Hold'em style, and you had your rear end Hannity, that one small little event in your entire career |
| 772 | 02:13:40 --> 02:13:50 | will be magnified. No matter how much money you make, that one little piece of scar tissue is going to be a barrier and a hindrance to you doing things that |
| 773 | 02:13:50 --> 02:13:59 | you would have otherwise done more efficiently, because you hurt yourself not listening. So anyway, this candle is high, that's the drawing liquidity for me |
| 774 | 02:14:00 --> 02:14:11 | initially, then it's this specific price point here 18,000 Zero 21 Because that's the lowest quadrant that's above the lowest of this fair value got from |
| 775 | 02:14:11 --> 02:14:23 | that candles low in that candles high. That's your fair guy you got so this from looking at this range here. But the very specific price points in that range I |
| 776 | 02:14:23 --> 02:14:33 | had based on this, the lower quadrant. And this is not quarters theory, by the way. Okay, it's fine this in quarters theory, it's not there. What I'm doing is |
| 777 | 02:14:33 --> 02:14:41 | I'm I'm grading a price swing, the price swing is the difference between this candles low in this candles high. And because the markets are algorithmically |
| 778 | 02:14:41 --> 02:14:51 | booked and delivered, they're gonna go to this level, then they'll go to that level and that level and how I'm using this information is I want to see a trade |
| 779 | 02:14:51 --> 02:15:00 | here. That would be a nice area to target first. Then if I have a long position one, then it'd be this level here. I would take a partial and then I would take |
| 780 | 02:15:01 --> 02:15:10 | 80% of the trade off at the halfway point and leave a runner on to see if the daily range can excel. I'm not saying it's going to do this today, I'm saying |
| 781 | 02:15:10 --> 02:15:20 | this is my Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, bias, I want to see E Mini NASDAQ trade up to that. That's what I went into the week with that I'm giving to you |
| 782 | 02:15:20 --> 02:15:30 | live as I'm doing it. And I'm telling you why and how I came to that conclusion. I didn't just pluck it out here. And this method or process is what I do every |
| 783 | 02:15:30 --> 02:15:39 | single week in every single day. Now, if it can close above that midpoint of this fair value, that which is constant encouragement, that price being |
| 784 | 02:15:39 --> 02:15:51 | 18,054.25 include, I think, can close above that, then I would expect whether it be Asia, whether it be London or New York session tomorrow or the pm session, |
| 785 | 02:15:51 --> 02:16:02 | I'd be looking for reasons to justify how it would go up and close in the upper portion. But if I can get along in around the equilibrium of that range or |
| 786 | 02:16:02 --> 02:16:10 | inefficiency, consequent encroachment, the midpoint that that price, then I would take a partial at the upper quadrant, because it doesn't have to fill that |
| 787 | 02:16:10 --> 02:16:22 | in, you see that I'm done. I've removed the necessity of being right. I have to be right or it's not profitable bull. You just need to be worrying about |
| 788 | 02:16:22 --> 02:16:31 | controlling the drawdown, managing risk. And when the market affords you an opportunity to pay yourself, you pay the trader, that's how this works, folks, |
| 789 | 02:16:31 --> 02:16:40 | but you have to predetermine where you're going to try to aim for a partial use can't just feel like oh, my elbow is tWitch. And last time I had a muscle grant |
| 790 | 02:16:40 --> 02:16:48 | like this, and I was gonna treat it, you know, it turned on me. So you know, I probably should take one. Now, let me take a partial off. Now. You're trading |
| 791 | 02:16:48 --> 02:16:59 | from physical stimuli, you know that you're trading off of cortisol and adrenaline. And nobody's thinking clearly when that's going on. So you have to |
| 792 | 02:16:59 --> 02:17:07 | have your levels for targeting, whether it be partial or conclusion or Terminus where you're completely out of the trade entirely, they have to be determined |
| 793 | 02:17:07 --> 02:17:18 | before you enter the trade. If you can't time your entry and get in it with a target and where your partial should be, you shouldn't be entering the trade. |
| 794 | 02:17:18 --> 02:17:26 | Because what you're going to do is you're going to enter, and you're going to find out how you feel as the trade goes along. And what that means is you may |
| 795 | 02:17:26 --> 02:17:36 | have had a small inclination of a market trading 10 handles, but because it moves 12, real fast and sudden, now you're in there for a whole day. And then |
| 796 | 02:17:36 --> 02:17:40 | you'll watch that profitable day. And you might get 30 handles 40 and 60 handles. |
| 797 | 02:17:41 --> 02:17:47 | And you're like man, I'm going to the bank today, honey, pack the bags, we're going to Vegas, honey. |
| 798 | 02:17:48 --> 02:17:59 | And at the end of the day, it's gone. And you lost $1,000 Or you blew your funded account, or you blew your trading account. Instead of saying, I'm not |
| 799 | 02:17:59 --> 02:18:09 | just trading today, I'm trading until I can't do it anymore. And I don't have the mental faculties or the equity to do it, or the markets are kept from me. |
| 800 | 02:18:10 --> 02:18:21 | I'm going to trade. So therefore I have to do this as a business. I want to take profit at this logical price level. And I'm showing you how to logically frame |
| 801 | 02:18:21 --> 02:18:30 | out low hanging fruit objectives. You don't need grand slams, you don't need to complicate it. If you think this is complicated or complex, I don't know what to |
| 802 | 02:18:30 --> 02:18:38 | tell you. Because there's all kinds of other stuff out there. That's busy work. And it doesn't prove its effectiveness at all. I teach my students this stuff, |
| 803 | 02:18:38 --> 02:18:50 | they use it. They're on the leaderboard number one spot and robins, they're passing out, I got 1 million profit students, they've taken $1 million out of |
| 804 | 02:18:50 --> 02:18:58 | the marketplace using what I'm teaching you for free. I could go right into mentorships and start making millions of dollars again every single month. I |
| 805 | 02:18:58 --> 02:19:05 | don't want to I don't need to I love teaching you, I want you to learn it the correct way. That's why I talk to you in great detail. Because I want you to |
| 806 | 02:19:05 --> 02:19:12 | know, and you're not going to learn it the first time you go into the video. You don't need to come back to my video and watch it and give me ad revenue. |
| 807 | 02:19:12 --> 02:19:19 | Download the video. I don't need your ad revenue. I really don't I really don't need that. But I really need you to learn how to do it correctly because there's |
| 808 | 02:19:19 --> 02:19:27 | a lot of Yahoo's out there teaching something they don't know anything about. And it's hurting more people than it's helping. And because they're using my |
| 809 | 02:19:27 --> 02:19:34 | terminology that it's supposed to be rebranded bullshit, why don't you just go talk about the rebrand and stuff that I suppose they did that call it what you |
| 810 | 02:19:34 --> 02:19:41 | think it's been rebranded and make it work in your charts, make it work in a live stream, make it work like that. When competitions withdrawals from fund |
| 811 | 02:19:41 --> 02:19:47 | account companies show broker statement, do all those things because I have students all around the world that are doing that. And they're attributing what |
| 812 | 02:19:47 --> 02:19:54 | they've learned right from this YouTube channel and some of them paid to get this information. You're not entitled to it, but I gifted it to the community |
| 813 | 02:19:54 --> 02:20:04 | because it's been abused by people and to keep them from making money. I gave it to you But I love teaching, I'm a teacher at heart. If you don't want to follow |
| 814 | 02:20:04 --> 02:20:18 | my rules, you can't claim that my results or your results are attributed to my concepts. You can't do that, because you're doing things inconsistently. And |
| 815 | 02:20:18 --> 02:20:26 | what I mean by that what I said earlier facetiously, where if you don't have a predetermined level, where you can take a partial profit, based on the logic and |
| 816 | 02:20:26 --> 02:20:35 | the analysis that you're doing, you're going to be left to fall victim to whatever you feel while the trade is going on. And obviously, if the market |
| 817 | 02:20:35 --> 02:20:44 | starts going off the rails and parabolically in your favor, and wildly beyond what you thought was gonna go, you won't be able to see anything except for |
| 818 | 02:20:44 --> 02:20:51 | dollar signs. And it's all going to be champagnes, and, you know, bottles popping and Lamborghinis. You're just thinking, I'm getting rich on the street. |
| 819 | 02:20:52 --> 02:21:01 | Everybody has experienced that. Everyone, well, not everybody. There's been people that's never made money. But the folks that has ever had a winning trade |
| 820 | 02:21:01 --> 02:21:08 | that has gone beyond what they initially thought, they removed their stop loss, they don't have a target, they don't have any limit on it, it's just open ended. |
| 821 | 02:21:09 --> 02:21:16 | I don't want to get stopped out. So let me pick stuff up, because I know it's going to go to the moon. And that should never happen, it should never be |
| 822 | 02:21:16 --> 02:21:26 | allowed in your trades. You've completely lost the plot, you don't know what you're doing. And now you're gambling. You're literally that a slot machine just |
| 823 | 02:21:26 --> 02:21:40 | hoping that the 777 is gonna pop up. Or whatever it is that you're the payout. By having these easy objectives. These low hanging fruit objectives, you don't |
| 824 | 02:21:40 --> 02:21:48 | need it to go to outside the range or trading in, you don't need it to move 100 candles, if there's a logical reason for it to go higher or lower, based on a |
| 825 | 02:21:48 --> 02:21:59 | higher timeframe chart, and you can see a pattern that I've taught at nauseam in this YouTube channel. That's it, that's your model. And if it's working for you |
| 826 | 02:21:59 --> 02:22:08 | don't change it. Don't invite others to critique it. That means when you make a lot of money with it, don't go on social media. So look at this. You want |
| 827 | 02:22:08 --> 02:22:19 | someone to say well done, patch on the back, the handshake you someone that trust their model, and they can do it repeatedly. And consistently. They're |
| 828 | 02:22:19 --> 02:22:28 | never going on social media and asking for the approval. They have their bank accounts that's approving them every single week. Wow, I made more money this |
| 829 | 02:22:28 --> 02:22:35 | month than I had in the bank. The previous month, I had this many withdrawals from my account, my broker sent me this much money, my funding account company |
| 830 | 02:22:35 --> 02:22:45 | paid me out this much money, what more do you need to make you feel good, it that's real. The reason why you want to go to social media is because you don't |
| 831 | 02:22:46 --> 02:22:55 | have the consistency. And you know, it's probably not gonna last. So you got to get it while you can get your accolades while you can. That's the wrong way of |
| 832 | 02:22:55 --> 02:23:04 | doing it. You put that stuff in your journal, and you keep counting the money after you're out of the trade. You don't count it while you're in the trade. But |
| 833 | 02:23:04 --> 02:23:13 | you have to know when you're getting out. Where are you taking profits, because unless you have that predetermined, you're going to lose sight of everything |
| 834 | 02:23:14 --> 02:23:23 | while you're in the trade. And that's going to affect your adherence to your bias. You don't think it hear me talk about like this. But if anybody's ever |
| 835 | 02:23:23 --> 02:23:33 | traded real money, or even trying to pass these on that account company challenges and whatnot, or the classic scenario, I only have $300. And then I |
| 836 | 02:23:33 --> 02:23:46 | can pass my funded account. And I'm gonna go for it today, I'm gonna find 300 off somewhere. And then you find yourself without an account. classic, classic, |
| 837 | 02:23:46 --> 02:23:56 | classic, classic. My best advice is if you're in a situation where you're right at the threshold of getting a funded account or getting a payout. That's the |
| 838 | 02:23:56 --> 02:24:04 | easiest way to say you know what, I'm going to take three days off, do something else. Because if you're not a trade, you'll be able to come back after three |
| 839 | 02:24:04 --> 02:24:15 | days, and be sober minded about it, and get that last little piece and get it but you're all in a rush. There's no reason for that. Like, if you do it fast |
| 840 | 02:24:15 --> 02:24:25 | pace to get to it. Look how many times people try to pass it in one day. Okay, how many payouts Have you got? How many times did you blow those accounts that |
| 841 | 02:24:25 --> 02:24:35 | you pass them one day, the speed factor needs to be balanced with. I'm going to just do this slow and steady. And I'm not trying to do it quick. I'm not in a |
| 842 | 02:24:35 --> 02:24:44 | race with anyone else. I'm not in a race with statistical probabilities that a good trader can pass in one day, that's a gambler. And yes, there's a lot of |
| 843 | 02:24:44 --> 02:24:52 | professional gamblers. But there's not a lot of professional gamblers that are profitable in trading consistently long term. If you want to be a short term |
| 844 | 02:24:52 --> 02:25:00 | gambler, there's lots of ways to do I'm not the guy to teach you that. I'm trying to teach you how to be boring. How to be in here. Good luck. Business a |
| 845 | 02:25:00 --> 02:25:08 | job. It's not a, it's not surprised when you're successful. And when you're not successful for a day and you lose, that's not the end of the career, it's not |
| 846 | 02:25:08 --> 02:25:14 | the end of the business, you're not boarding up the building and saying we're out of business now. But that's predominantly what you see in this industry |
| 847 | 02:25:14 --> 02:25:23 | where it's flash, boom, here it is, here, I'm showing up, I'm bang, I'm here, I arrived, I got a funded account I'm past. And then they're, they're using |
| 848 | 02:25:23 --> 02:25:33 | another account two weeks later. You shouldn't be impressed by your progress of how many times you can get a funded account. That should not be a measurement |
| 849 | 02:25:33 --> 02:25:42 | ever. And I tell this to my own students, in sometimes it's met with email saying, I thought you would encourage me now I am. I'm encouraging you to focus |
| 850 | 02:25:42 --> 02:25:51 | on what matters, getting a funded account past where you're now able to take money. If you're profitable, and you meet all their bullshit extremes and |
| 851 | 02:25:51 --> 02:26:00 | levels. Now they're talking about you can't trade you short span of time event, I told everything I'm telling you is going to happen, folks, it's you got to |
| 852 | 02:26:00 --> 02:26:10 | wait for it. These funded account companies, they're going to be gone, all of them are going to be gone. So you have to do the right things while you can. But |
| 853 | 02:26:10 --> 02:26:19 | don't rush it. And when you make real money, that money needs to be placed into a real regulated reputable broker, and trade with the least amount of leverage |
| 854 | 02:26:19 --> 02:26:30 | Nevermore until you get real experience. And when you can take money out of the marketplace and pay your groceries, pay your car note. And stop worrying that |
| 855 | 02:26:30 --> 02:26:38 | buying Lamborghinis and shit like that. If you don't listen to these rules, I promise you, everything I'm teaching, and I have taught already isn't going to |
| 856 | 02:26:38 --> 02:26:48 | help you. Because the problem underlying Lee is you can't listen and you won't be teachable. The rules are there for a reason. They're treated in a manner |
| 857 | 02:26:48 --> 02:26:56 | where they're low threshold, that means this is the lowest that you can reasonably frame it. And if you're not content with that as an initial |
| 858 | 02:26:56 --> 02:27:05 | objective, you're that you're being shown that your expectations are too elevated and too high. And without any experience you're going to meet, be met |
| 859 | 02:27:05 --> 02:27:12 | with frustration, because you're trying to do something you're not equipped to do. And you're going to fault yourself. You should have been able to do this |
| 860 | 02:27:12 --> 02:27:22 | sooner you should have been I've always been good and academic and everything else. My uncle was the same way. You can't equate that to being successful. But |
| 861 | 02:27:22 --> 02:27:33 | the underlying root causes are not sticking to a process or protocol. And if you're asking me to teach you bias, I've done that today. But you want something |
| 862 | 02:27:33 --> 02:27:35 | that is this is what it's always gonna look like. |
| 863 | 02:27:37 --> 02:27:49 | It's not like that. You're seeing where price has been? How you came from there. Where are you at right now? Are you still in a discount? Is it likely to go |
| 864 | 02:27:49 --> 02:27:57 | higher? Okay, your mindset should be I'm focusing on how price is gonna go higher. Now, right away, there's Tom, Dick and Harry's mentorship, guys out |
| 865 | 02:27:57 --> 02:28:07 | there and saying, Well, you know, talking about the market, and calling the market is not trading. That's exactly the truth, absolutely the truth. But you |
| 866 | 02:28:07 --> 02:28:15 | can't reasonably expect to be consistently profitable following a methodology, whether it be mine or anyone else's, until you have a process that you have seen |
| 867 | 02:28:15 --> 02:28:24 | work in the hindsight that you've measured the data, it works this this many times more than it fails this many times. Is there a reason for you stick with |
| 868 | 02:28:24 --> 02:28:34 | it using the rules, not your own stuff, not your own elbow, aching, the last time I had tennis elbow, when the market went 150 handles and now my I got gout, |
| 869 | 02:28:34 --> 02:28:42 | my right big toe. And last time that happened, I blew my account. So you're equating everything in every catalyst for things that are outside of the market. |
| 870 | 02:28:43 --> 02:28:53 | Because we're human nature, we're humans. Rather, we fall within the human nature where we do things, and we personify things that are never really factors |
| 871 | 02:28:53 --> 02:29:03 | that cause the outcome of anything. And that highlights the the necessity for personal responsibility and accountability. And you need those to be paramount |
| 872 | 02:29:03 --> 02:29:16 | in yourself as the trader, when you make money, you made that money, I did not make that for you. My concepts did not make that for you. You did you use |
| 873 | 02:29:16 --> 02:29:27 | something to cause the decision that he made. And then you stuck with that decision until the time that you close that trade. I promise you if you wrote an |
| 874 | 02:29:27 --> 02:29:35 | essay out on everything that you did, or using a winning trade and a losing trade, and you were honest with why you did it, what you were thinking what you |
| 875 | 02:29:35 --> 02:29:49 | were feeling every emotion, I promise you the least factor will be my concepts, or anybody else's methodology. That's the secret. You You're the fucking |
| 876 | 02:29:49 --> 02:29:59 | problem. You have all this baggage in the beginning that you got to sort out and nobody does an adequate job. Unless you're talking to me that I'm going to point |
| 877 | 02:29:59 --> 02:30:11 | out Everything you're doing wrong because I did all those things. And until I corrected them, I was not able to do this. I put all these other things in front |
| 878 | 02:30:11 --> 02:30:25 | of me when the least was enough. The least of these things that you're you're worried about is enough to derail you. The least in terms of profit objectives |
| 879 | 02:30:25 --> 02:30:37 | is enough to retire you. But you won't accept that. Why? What is the underlying problem, if you make 100 bucks a day, and you're consistently able to make 100 |
| 880 | 02:30:37 --> 02:30:49 | bucks a day. If you can do that consistently, all you have to do is multiply that that's the easy part multiplying is easy. Being able to consistently find |
| 881 | 02:30:49 --> 02:31:00 | that $100 cookie cutter, he may not be $100, it might be 200 bucks, might be 50 bucks for some of you. But you have to be able to measure this continuous |
| 882 | 02:31:01 --> 02:31:12 | approach to doing the same boring shit that has the outcome that is going to give you the end result you're looking for. You do not need to have one contract |
| 883 | 02:31:12 --> 02:31:26 | yields paying out $2,500 You don't need that. You just need something that yields you profitability if you're an s&p trader, okay. Let's take a quick look |
| 884 | 02:31:26 --> 02:31:42 | at s&p vs m two zero to four. Alright. Actually, you know what? We've been going for a little bit. Let's take a five minute intermission because I need to get |
| 885 | 02:31:42 --> 02:31:49 | something to drink and you probably need to use the restroom. So let's go for a five minute intermission here. And then I'll resume |
| 886 | 02:36:42 --> 02:36:56 | All right. So far it should have been worth the price of admission rains. Tuesday and Wednesday is going to be much, much more in best in the time of |
| 887 | 02:36:56 --> 02:37:05 | reading price action live and explain things, but we have to have the foundation. And like any book, you're going to have chapters that have essential |
| 888 | 02:37:05 --> 02:37:15 | information. That's what we wanted to cover today initially, if you discount that stuff in the beginning and try to fast forward stuff, and in the past, when |
| 889 | 02:37:15 --> 02:37:24 | I let people comment on videos, they'll invariably have like, the video starts at this minute marker, they're jerks are never going to make any money. Like |
| 890 | 02:37:24 --> 02:37:32 | they literally are omitting the important factors. The stuff that you want to be explained why this is important, why you should be looking for certain things |
| 891 | 02:37:32 --> 02:37:42 | and why you should discount other things outside of what I teach, that are distractions. So anyway, real quick with the s&p, because I do want to spend at |
| 892 | 02:37:42 --> 02:37:56 | least an hour or so with live price action on very, very small timeframes. We have a fair pay gap here with colored outside the lines just a little bit, but |
| 893 | 02:37:56 --> 02:38:11 | we have this wick see that. Remember, I was showing you with the wicks on the NASDAQ. Same thing applies here. consequat encroachment, which is the midpoint, |
| 894 | 02:38:11 --> 02:38:31 | that's level 5190. The lower quadrant is a price I can't see how to read it. Let's see what I get a rough idea 5173 quarters, okay. So even though we can go |
| 895 | 02:38:31 --> 02:38:47 | outside of the range of this pair Vega, why why could that happen? Well, if you go back to NASDAQ, we have a lot more range that could happen in unfolding by |
| 896 | 02:38:47 --> 02:38:59 | side delivery, not by side liquidity by side delivery system expansion higher directionally. It's offering bias side delivery to NASDAQ in this area. We're |
| 897 | 02:38:59 --> 02:39:11 | below that fair value got. So if things are allowed to see dollar go a little bit lower, but not on do everything I've said about it. NASDAQ can go a little |
| 898 | 02:39:11 --> 02:39:22 | bit higher. s&p is already inside its fair value gap. So what premium rate exists for it if it's going to be allowed to trade higher in sympathy with |
| 899 | 02:39:22 --> 02:39:36 | NASDAQ should not affect trade higher? We have to use this week this week as a gap, okay. So, we will look at the opening price here. The quadrant, the lowest |
| 900 | 02:39:36 --> 02:39:54 | one here in the midpoint. Same thing now with this we have something that brings another depth of bias narrative prognostication terms directionally and also |
| 901 | 02:39:55 --> 02:40:07 | input that we can now use for market structure. If we close above this midpoint, or consequent coachmen that wick for the s&p because we've already went above |
| 902 | 02:40:07 --> 02:40:24 | its respective Pharaoh you get like this day here April 15. For s&p, that gap is the same gap that's here for NASDAQ April 15, we've not yet made its way up into |
| 903 | 02:40:25 --> 02:40:41 | this gap on NASDAQ, but we have gone to it and poked outside of it on es here. So if it's trading here in ETS, and we close above that, that, to me signifies |
| 904 | 02:40:41 --> 02:40:49 | that we're probably going to go higher and maybe a very likely take out behind. So that means we have a change in the overall market structure. And I mentioned |
| 905 | 02:40:49 --> 02:40:58 | this on April 8, where, because we're in an election year, yes, I'm expecting hundreds of handles lower. Seasonally, it's likely to happen, we've seen that |
| 906 | 02:40:58 --> 02:41:10 | it's the 1000 Plus handles in NASDAQ. That went lower. But if we see that it's an election year, the seasonal tendency in the spring can many times be abruptly |
| 907 | 02:41:10 --> 02:41:20 | changed. And we can see it resumed going higher, if it's a bullish year, and it's an election year. So that would constitute if we can close above that here. |
| 908 | 02:41:21 --> 02:41:34 | That might be a marker delineating the change in the underlying direction in the marketplace where right now I'm favoring, I'm favoring higher dollar. So that's |
| 909 | 02:41:34 --> 02:41:48 | risk off. And I'm looking for reasons for a higher timeframe trade to be implemented. That is not to say that I won't take long intraday scalping, where |
| 910 | 02:41:48 --> 02:42:00 | I don't even need to have a bias. Okay, so all these factors build on the dynamic of understanding your daily bias, your weekly bias. And now I want to |
| 911 | 02:42:00 --> 02:42:12 | talk a little bit about session bias. Okay, we're gonna go back into NASDAQ. Alright, so here's, here's what we have for the NASDAQ on the daily chart. And |
| 912 | 02:42:12 --> 02:42:25 | I'm going to drop right on into a four hour. Be mindful that these levels here. This is the order blocks opening price on the daily chart for NASDAQ here, and |
| 913 | 02:42:25 --> 02:42:34 | the opening price on this down close. Canelo was in Norwalk, those two price levels, we're going to study that in a little bit greater detail, in our time, |
| 914 | 02:42:34 --> 02:42:47 | teach you in concert with that and other things, how we can trade without a bias. Because let me say this, again, I'm not trying to encourage you to trade |
| 915 | 02:42:47 --> 02:42:58 | without a bias initially, because you're going to be challenged by that. Because what happens is, when you don't need a bias, that means you have a whole lot |
| 916 | 02:42:58 --> 02:43:08 | more opportunities. And that is going to sound exactly what you're looking for. I have a lot more reasons to make a lot more money, when in reality, it just |
| 917 | 02:43:08 --> 02:43:19 | means that you have a lot more excuses for why you blew your account. Because small timeframes offer a plethora of new very short term strikes, we get in get |
| 918 | 02:43:19 --> 02:43:33 | out to 10 handles 15 hands be done. In and out five handles six handles in SAP, you're done. What I tried to promote is looking for one of those per day, you |
| 919 | 02:43:33 --> 02:43:40 | can study all the elements that you you'd be interested in, but try to find one that you're you would be real confident saying okay, this is the one |
| 920 | 02:43:40 --> 02:43:53 | everything's good. I'm going to try to get it and stop because there's no other way to forge and build self control until you start doing something like that. |
| 921 | 02:43:54 --> 02:44:04 | So please don't take the segue into shorter term timeframe setups and reading intraday price action on these very small timeframes. Don't don't take that as |
| 922 | 02:44:04 --> 02:44:14 | an invitation by me to say abandon everything and just go out there and just have at it because I think it's more reasonable and responsible if you I |
| 923 | 02:44:14 --> 02:44:23 | certainly have me as the educator here to try to filter out the majority of the things that I know that you're going to see as a setup that isn't there isn't |
| 924 | 02:44:23 --> 02:44:32 | going to be a good setup and that's part of the learning process. You'll know what your model is that you'd like interest and because you've been doing it |
| 925 | 02:44:32 --> 02:44:40 | enough you'll know the setup that look like if I can see how someone else with less experienced with see that's likely to occur, but I'm not taking that one. |
| 926 | 02:44:41 --> 02:44:50 | And when it doesn't pan out, that feels so much better than making money. You don't understand that right now because you're not profitable yet. But a |
| 927 | 02:44:50 --> 02:44:59 | profitable trader knows exactly what I just said is truth. Knowing when not to do something and it did exactly what you thought was gonna happen where in your |
| 928 | 02:45:00 --> 02:45:09 | enfants of learning how to trade or using your model your concepts, whether it be my stuff or in my office, you just think you see everything all the time, |
| 929 | 02:45:09 --> 02:45:10 | because you want it to happen. |
| 930 | 02:45:13 --> 02:45:21 | Maturity comes when you're like, Okay, I can see how that setup could trip me up early on. But now I got more experience. I don't trust this one. Yes, it could |
| 931 | 02:45:21 --> 02:45:30 | pan out, but I'm not taking them on, it's not worth my money. It's not worth my mental capital. It's not my, it's not worth my peace of mind. So I'm going to |
| 932 | 02:45:30 --> 02:45:38 | let that one pass. And regardless of the outcome of me not taking that trade, I'm okay with it, it's not going to change me, it's not going to create an |
| 933 | 02:45:38 --> 02:45:47 | impulse me to not take another train because I didn't do that one. So now I'm mad at myself, you completely eliminate all that stuff, by having a bias and |
| 934 | 02:45:47 --> 02:45:56 | operating only in that. And then you forge personal responsibility and maturity, and then you'll have the end result you're looking for but you can't visual, the |
| 935 | 02:45:56 --> 02:46:05 | envisioning and visually see it within yourself. Because you're still in that doubting stage, where everything is an invitation to justify why you shouldn't |
| 936 | 02:46:05 --> 02:46:14 | learn from me, or even trade anywhere. Because nobody makes money. Nobody does anything Correct. Everybody's a scammer. So you have a lot of stuff that workout |
| 937 | 02:46:14 --> 02:46:22 | and wrestle with in the beginning. So the easiest way for you to get through that is have a protocol, a process and stay within that. But the good news is, |
| 938 | 02:46:23 --> 02:46:33 | when you get through that stage, and you know what a real good setup looks like inside of bias, then you can graduate into saying, Okay, I want to do exercises, |
| 939 | 02:46:33 --> 02:46:41 | and I'm gonna show you how to do that. Today, I want to do exercises on how I can learn to read price action and expect certain things to happen in price, and |
| 940 | 02:46:41 --> 02:46:50 | desensitize yourself. And when you're using lower timeframe setups, you're gonna, you're gonna get a lot of them. You don't need all of them to pan out. In |
| 941 | 02:46:50 --> 02:46:58 | fact, in the beginning, it's good for them not to all pain out, because that's how you identify the ones that are better. You compare and contrast the |
| 942 | 02:46:58 --> 02:47:04 | characteristics of the ones that did pan out versus the ones that didn't pan out. And then you include the element of time, because the time factor is going |
| 943 | 02:47:04 --> 02:47:21 | to tell you why the ones didn't work. Hello. So we're gonna look at for our for our charting here, our respective daily order block levels, notice that there |
| 944 | 02:47:21 --> 02:47:36 | isn't like 20 of them on a daily chart, there's not like 15 7442 is good for three or two, that's good, because you're dealing with daily ranges, okay. And |
| 945 | 02:47:36 --> 02:47:49 | the expectance that you may have, when you first start doing this is you think orderbox are happening every five minutes on every timeframe. And you have to be |
| 946 | 02:47:49 --> 02:48:00 | reasonable because in a protracted price run, that means where it's continuously moving in one direction higher or lower. In an up move. Ideally, you only want |
| 947 | 02:48:00 --> 02:48:08 | to see a few down close candles, because that tells you there's a lot of strength in this up move. If you see a lot of down close candles forming, that |
| 948 | 02:48:08 --> 02:48:19 | means either you're at the consolidation midpoint of halfway of that move, or you're probably near the high in the next run, it goes up that's going to be |
| 949 | 02:48:19 --> 02:48:27 | that's the end of it, and it's going to collapse. And that right there. If you didn't write that down, you missed the whole thing today. Because down close |
| 950 | 02:48:27 --> 02:48:41 | candles in a up move, they should only be there for new opportunities to buy. Period. If you start seeing a whole lot of them, that means they're opening the |
| 951 | 02:48:41 --> 02:48:50 | auction up to hey, look, come on, we want more buyers. And that's the red flag. The more down close candles you see in the timeframe that you're trading, when |
| 952 | 02:48:50 --> 02:48:58 | you're bullish, the more likely you're at a either consolidation. And that's good news. If you have a higher timeframe objective or target where you think |
| 953 | 02:48:58 --> 02:49:07 | the markets gonna draw to, if you start seeing a number of down close candles, starting to form around in the general proximity where you're at in price |
| 954 | 02:49:07 --> 02:49:18 | action, you're usually at a consolidation point. That means you're at basically a midpoint of the next price leg will repeat what you just experienced. So it's |
| 955 | 02:49:18 --> 02:49:30 | like a measured move type thing. Think of it like a classic bull flat. Okay, where that pause, that little consolidation is just the midpoint of the overall |
| 956 | 02:49:30 --> 02:49:41 | larger move. And a measure move is the replication of the first leg up now will be repeated but many times it's done so in three quarters or half the time. So |
| 957 | 02:49:41 --> 02:49:52 | all these down close candles and up close candles or order blocks. They give you Intel not just a entry or a target or a means of managing your stop loss. But it |
| 958 | 02:49:52 --> 02:50:03 | also gives you insight into determining the strength in the underlying prop ability of the continuation of that price leg or run that you're part of, |
| 959 | 02:50:03 --> 02:50:12 | ideally, you don't want to see a lot of down close candles. But when you do see them, and it does return back to them, you want immediate respect, if you don't |
| 960 | 02:50:12 --> 02:50:20 | get immediate respect, the same thing holds true, you probably are at a turning point in any rally that comes off of that. The next candle, the next candle, |
| 961 | 02:50:20 --> 02:50:28 | after that, within two candles of hitting that order block, if you don't get the responsiveness, or if it's comes off of this really lackluster, you're probably |
| 962 | 02:50:28 --> 02:50:36 | only trading up to a short term premium, which would be model 2022 Or a breaker. And then it's, that's it, it's over an inch, and they're gonna pull the rug and |
| 963 | 02:50:36 --> 02:50:46 | goes lower. That's stuff that I've never taught before. I did not include that in the paid mentorship, because I've got Jack legs in there that are trying to |
| 964 | 02:50:46 --> 02:50:54 | sell it. So that's why I don't make content for them anymore. I answered their questions, I asked them, tell me what you'd like me to address in this workshop. |
| 965 | 02:50:54 --> 02:51:02 | I'm addressing a lot of their questions and their concerns in this teaching, but I'm making it public. So that way nobody can repackage and more, because they |
| 966 | 02:51:02 --> 02:51:10 | can, they will be written books, all this stuff. Now, you'll see it's on Amazon ICT secret the order blocks, he's finally spilled the beans. Whatever. The point |
| 967 | 02:51:10 --> 02:51:21 | is, is that I didn't even I didn't teach this anywhere else before. And it helped me for six years in front of them live every single day calling the |
| 968 | 02:51:21 --> 02:51:31 | market telling them what was gonna happen on a weekly in a daily, four hour a one hour 15 minute chart, five minute chart, like I was on the record. And I was |
| 969 | 02:51:31 --> 02:51:40 | very consistent using these types of things that you now have in your hands. Just because you now heard me say the words doesn't mean that now you can walk |
| 970 | 02:51:40 --> 02:51:48 | out there and say, I can do this too. And try to push buttons and try and pass columbines. And whatever, you still have to go through that graduated stage in |
| 971 | 02:51:48 --> 02:51:57 | the beginning, where you have to see it for yourself, you have to see when it doesn't work, and ask yourself Why did it not work there? And do personal |
| 972 | 02:51:57 --> 02:52:05 | inventory? Are you upset about something? Are you mad? Are you impatient, are you trying to force something because you want to do what somebody else has |
| 973 | 02:52:05 --> 02:52:13 | done, and they got so much money as a withdrawal and funded account company or they did something in a competition or they did this and that you're trying to |
| 974 | 02:52:13 --> 02:52:21 | do things that are outside or external to yourself. And as a trader, you got to keep everything personal and private. And that doesn't fit some of you that want |
| 975 | 02:52:21 --> 02:52:36 | to be rockstars on social media. But that's all bullshit. Your house being paid off your car, having no noon, your bills being completely paid that free and all |
| 976 | 02:52:36 --> 02:52:46 | of your utilities are constantly being met by one trade. One trade in one session of one day out of a whole month in everything you make beyond that, |
| 977 | 02:52:46 --> 02:52:55 | after you have taken it out of the account, and you've paid yourself, that's the real pain, not just closing the trade, you got to pay yourself. When I say pay |
| 978 | 02:52:55 --> 02:53:05 | the trader, that doesn't mean collapse the trade that means take the money out, take the money out, they'll have a meal with your spouse, take your wife out to |
| 979 | 02:53:05 --> 02:53:15 | dinner, take your husband out to dinner, spend it make it tangible, because when you do that, it's going to inspire you to be diligent about following rules and |
| 980 | 02:53:15 --> 02:53:22 | not over leveraging and risking. Because you're going to want that experience more times than you just want to get the rush or the high after seeing a move |
| 981 | 02:53:22 --> 02:53:31 | happen in a demo or a funded account, which is a demo. And unless you get the money in your hands in your bank account, and you spend some of it. It's an |
| 982 | 02:53:31 --> 02:53:39 | illusion. But that illusion is extremely powerful. And it's going to cause you to behave a certain way while trading. Because you're trying to keep up with the |
| 983 | 02:53:39 --> 02:53:49 | Joneses. You're trying to appease the people that are looking to you. But you invited that. And now you've created a situation where hey, I'm not trading to |
| 984 | 02:53:49 --> 02:54:00 | make money anymore. I'm trading to impress other people. And that rarely works out well. So don't bother doing it. Does that mean you can't show a profitable |
| 985 | 02:54:00 --> 02:54:04 | month after it's done? No, it doesn't mean that. But as a steady dot, here's what I did today. Here's how I did it. |
| 986 | 02:54:06 --> 02:54:14 | You're basically giving yourself a report card and letting other people critique you. And that is going to impact your daily bias. You're going to second guess |
| 987 | 02:54:14 --> 02:54:23 | every little fluctuation. So you as a teacher, you daily bias. These are all part of that. Some of you're just saying Get on with it. This is all part of it, |
| 988 | 02:54:23 --> 02:54:33 | folks, my students that have made money, my students have suffered and never been able to find their own model and adhere to rules. I'm preaching to them. |
| 989 | 02:54:34 --> 02:54:46 | I've had students that just recently even in the 2016 group, they have finally think about that now they have finally found profitability. What what took so |
| 990 | 02:54:46 --> 02:54:58 | long them you all have the same content. You have the same lessons, the same rhetoric, everything. But they are the issue. The ones that made money sooner. |
| 991 | 02:54:58 --> 02:55:08 | They were the catalyst They didn't recklessly plunge in there and in do stupid stuff or outside the parameters, they stuck to the parameters. So I'm teaching |
| 992 | 02:55:08 --> 02:55:16 | you today I taught you the process of going through the market. And you do the same thing with every asset class or market, you're gonna trade. But I start |
| 993 | 02:55:16 --> 02:55:26 | with the Daily, I'm sorry, the dollar index, because it gives me the risk on risk off scenario that I measure, that does not mean or equate that a higher |
| 994 | 02:55:26 --> 02:55:38 | dollar or a bullish dollar bias, he clicks to let's get short, NASDAQ, s&p Dow, let's sell short gold. That's doesn't mean all that. It just means that that is |
| 995 | 02:55:38 --> 02:55:51 | where my mindset is. And I want to focus primarily on setups that fit that criteria, versus just taking any old trade. Now, how do we use that for very |
| 996 | 02:55:51 --> 02:55:58 | small short term timeframes? Well, we're going to look at how in this little area here, where we had the order block number on daily chart with the four hour |
| 997 | 02:55:58 --> 02:56:11 | meal. Okay, let me go back to that daily. Here's the framework. Here's that last enclosed candle. So when we look at 17,530.75. And when we look at this price |
| 998 | 02:56:11 --> 02:56:23 | level at 17,006 82, even, that's these two respective order blocks on the daily chart, and their order blocks, because we're in the lower quad lower half are |
| 999 | 02:56:23 --> 02:56:33 | either in a discount range of this high to that low, see how that price like this stands out, it just jumps off at the chart, you're using that as a frame of |
| 1000 | 02:56:33 --> 02:56:42 | reference. This is the most logical price run we just had. Now, in that price run, there are smaller price legs. We'll talk about that on Tuesday. But for |
| 1001 | 02:56:42 --> 02:56:52 | right now, for daily bias and session bias, this is enough, okay. So there are order blocks because they're in the lower portion or in a discount relative to |
| 1002 | 02:56:52 --> 02:57:00 | the range that you're using to qualify the down close candles to be a bullish order block. And because it's higher timeframe, daily chart, they have a lot of |
| 1003 | 02:57:00 --> 02:57:08 | influence over price, they're going to be very influential. So having them on your chart and drawing them out like this, what price are we looking at? Well, |
| 1004 | 02:57:08 --> 02:57:19 | it's inside the Zoom wrong, it's the opening price. That is the change in the state of delivery. That means that the market will now seek by side premium |
| 1005 | 02:57:19 --> 02:57:29 | arrays or liquidity. That means by side or by stops one of the two or a combination of both. But it's your job to go through the charts. Okay, now, |
| 1006 | 02:57:29 --> 02:57:40 | where is there inefficiency, when it when it traded down here, you're looking at this thing all see it failed. That's a noob. Trying to find fault, it's |
| 1007 | 02:57:40 --> 02:57:46 | something we're going to be on a lower timeframe to see what I mean by this, when you have a higher timeframe monthly, weekly or daily or even a four hour |
| 1008 | 02:57:46 --> 02:57:54 | order block, those levels need to be transposed to your lower timeframes, because they will absolutely have an influence on price. And you're gonna see |
| 1009 | 02:57:54 --> 02:58:04 | setups that completely have been never noticed by you. But they're the same things that I'm keying off of when I went on Twitter and said, Hey, let's do |
| 1010 | 02:58:04 --> 02:58:09 | some tape reading. I'm going to talk live. And this is a lot of this one a lot. In some of you were complaining about how it wasn't dealing with a chart, |
| 1011 | 02:58:10 --> 02:58:16 | because I was forcing you to look in your own chart because that's what trading is, you got to look in your chart. You can't make your money and profit in your |
| 1012 | 02:58:16 --> 02:58:26 | account, trading another person's live stream chart, you can't do that. You can't do that. Not not not in sleep at night, you can't. Now that's not to say |
| 1013 | 02:58:26 --> 02:58:34 | you can't support other people because I like certain live streamers. I like listening to them, I do not trade off of their information. I sometimes fade |
| 1014 | 02:58:34 --> 02:58:44 | them in their crowd, because then they get really, really animated about their opinion. And if it's opposed to what I expect to see in the pricer then I have a |
| 1015 | 02:58:44 --> 02:58:54 | purest form of market sentiment there is rate at that moment, real time. And I'm going to be honest, it's not to brag it's not to be I'm trying to be very |
| 1016 | 02:58:54 --> 02:59:05 | guarded in the way I deliver this because I have a tendency to go off the rails. And I've done it a few times here but the name of the dial it back the the |
| 1017 | 02:59:05 --> 02:59:13 | number of times that my setup when it's supposed to your fork feeling about yeah, let's get it let's do it or when they think it's really really bullish or |
| 1018 | 02:59:13 --> 02:59:21 | really, really bearish if that is absolutely diametrically opposed to what I'm teaching you. And I'm in the market. I'm looking for a setup that's counter to |
| 1019 | 02:59:21 --> 02:59:33 | what their emotional stimuli is being shared in public, when they're like that. I have everything all boxes checked that I have a sure thing when and I quietly |
| 1020 | 02:59:33 --> 02:59:45 | just have fun with it. You can do the same thing because everybody wants to be a live streamer. They all want to show that they can make money. But the ones that |
| 1021 | 02:59:45 --> 02:59:54 | offer their chat window, they are giving you a tool that you can tap into because that is real market vein. That's real market sentiment. That's somebody |
| 1022 | 02:59:54 --> 03:00:01 | that doesn't know what they're doing telling you with a high degree of opinionated concern about the outcome. not something they know little about, |
| 1023 | 03:00:02 --> 03:00:09 | who's going to know more about what the people that are able to trade not worried about talking in the chat room, fall into my chair and hopefully eat the |
| 1024 | 03:00:09 --> 03:00:18 | bread crumbs off their table. Or someone that just simply does it and they don't care to be looked at or talked about in heaven, all that stuff going on around |
| 1025 | 03:00:18 --> 03:00:28 | them. Clearly, it's an outmatched competition there, that Street money is going to be more prone to be incorrect. And that's why I like using YouTube live |
| 1026 | 03:00:28 --> 03:00:40 | streamers chat window, because they are the perfect market sentiment. They're perfect. They're flawless. They're absolutely 100% strike rate, they are on the |
| 1027 | 03:00:40 --> 03:00:51 | money, of losing. And I'm telling you right now, if you don't believe me, go and do it doesn't mean go into other people's life savings and troll them. But I sit |
| 1028 | 03:00:51 --> 03:01:03 | in about five of them. And I'm not really listening to many times the speaker of what they're saying. I'm just scrolling through and watching the comments when |
| 1029 | 03:01:03 --> 03:01:15 | I'm seeing something form on the chart I want to see and like seeing the public see the opposite at that very moment. And the more exclamations, the more amped |
| 1030 | 03:01:15 --> 03:01:25 | up, they get about it and more agitated attitude, whether they're, I'm I'm back in the truck, oh, it's load the boat, it's so it's gonna be so spaced gone to |
| 1031 | 03:01:25 --> 03:01:35 | the moon, I'm looking for those types of things that trigger a huge emotional commitment that they went so far as the typing in that chat window. And whether |
| 1032 | 03:01:35 --> 03:01:45 | they are in a trade or not the fact that they took the time to do that, if I see a lot of that not just in one live streamers, chat window, but multiple ones. |
| 1033 | 03:01:45 --> 03:01:54 | And I'm diametrically opposed to that view, then I feel like I have a good strong setup. And then I'll might initiate the trade, even with a larger degree |
| 1034 | 03:01:54 --> 03:02:08 | of leverage because of that. So that's the other part of what I did. So without making any attempt to maybe trying to speak ill of anyone's community. I'm not |
| 1035 | 03:02:08 --> 03:02:14 | trying to do that at all, but I'm being honest and telling you, that's the benefit I get from it. Because I'm not trying to learn anybody else's system. |
| 1036 | 03:02:14 --> 03:02:22 | I'm not trying to copy anybody else's methodology of trading. Even if they make a lot of money, I'm not interested in what they're doing. I'm happy to see |
| 1037 | 03:02:22 --> 03:02:33 | happen. I'm glad that they are doing it. I'm glad that their community gets to see it. But I'm tapping into a resource that doesn't hurt anybody. It's not I'm |
| 1038 | 03:02:33 --> 03:02:42 | not taking anything away from individuals that are sharing their opinion anyway. So I don't have a moral dilemma with it. And if you do you think it's believe me |
| 1039 | 03:02:42 --> 03:02:53 | to do it and give me less really, but this is a daily chart, we're gonna go into these lower timeframes and we're dropped down to a four hour. Okay, and I want |
| 1040 | 03:02:53 --> 03:03:07 | to take your attention into this right here. And I'm gonna highlight that in yellow. So when we drop in the lower timeframes, everything in the yellow is |
| 1041 | 03:03:07 --> 03:03:18 | salient to the order block and order flow. And you don't need anything like level two data. You don't need depth of market. You don't need Dom's. It's not |
| 1042 | 03:03:18 --> 03:03:31 | dumb, it's dumb. We're gonna stay how price behaves in this area here. I don't know so much over there. Alright, so we're on a four hour chart. That's all |
| 1043 | 03:03:31 --> 03:03:38 | that's necessary on the four hour. Okay. Everything's the same that we did on the monthly, everything is the same on the weekly everything and same on the |
| 1044 | 03:03:38 --> 03:03:48 | daily chart. And now on the four hour, we have a little tiny inefficiency between here and here. Now when I see something like that, and you're probably |
| 1045 | 03:03:48 --> 03:03:52 | thinking, is that really an inefficiency, of course it is because that is touching the old |
| 1046 | 03:03:55 --> 03:04:05 | equilibrium. And it didn't come down to at least there so that is a gap. Okay, that gap. I'll be more mindful to see what that does on a five I'm sorry, hourly |
| 1047 | 03:04:05 --> 03:04:14 | or 15 minute timeframe. So I'm not going to worry about framing it on a four hour chart. So we'll drop down into a 60 minute chart which is hourly. |
| 1048 | 03:04:21 --> 03:04:30 | Right now Now, if you look inside here, we had this candle run above the order block that's the lowest one on the daily chart. The next candle we dropped down. |
| 1049 | 03:04:30 --> 03:04:42 | What does it do? It does an immediate rebalance. Now if you've never heard me teach on this in immediate rebalance is where the market has a nice big bullish |
| 1050 | 03:04:42 --> 03:04:54 | run candle higher or a bearish candle that has a large range that moves lower and the immediate next candle after that re prices to the previous counter that |
| 1051 | 03:04:54 --> 03:05:03 | big candidates just formed. in visual terms. It's this market rallied here. This Candle went above the order block. That's that opening price on the daily chart, |
| 1052 | 03:05:03 --> 03:05:12 | that big blue line there. Okay? When we went above it, the next candle we tried to read back down. And what did it do, we went right back to the body or high of |
| 1053 | 03:05:12 --> 03:05:22 | the previous candle right for that big candle. So when it does that, what I'm watching is either will start its run in a direction I'm looking for, which is |
| 1054 | 03:05:22 --> 03:05:33 | in this case would be higher. Either that candle or the very next candle, if the next candle does not run, and it takes out that low, I am no longer interested |
| 1055 | 03:05:33 --> 03:05:46 | in ticking along, I have to move to the sidelines. Immediate rebounds is one of the strongest things I have in my repertoire. It will basically be like say this |
| 1056 | 03:05:46 --> 03:05:55 | candle only stopped with low right there and didn't go as low as it did there. And it closed and it opened over here. What would it have formed a fair value |
| 1057 | 03:05:55 --> 03:06:10 | guy. But because the market is in such a rush to get somewhere where this would have been an obvious fair value got i I'm watching this candle live. I'm |
| 1058 | 03:06:10 --> 03:06:17 | watching whatever timeframe I'm watching to turn it on. I'm looking at how price behaves like this. And when it creates this big run like this, and we open up |
| 1059 | 03:06:17 --> 03:06:24 | here, I'm waiting to see does it create a fair value gap? I'm already anticipating I'm on record doing it. I'm on record calling your inversion fair |
| 1060 | 03:06:24 --> 03:06:35 | value gap before they even form. I'm on record expecting an immediate rebalance before they even form. Go back and listen to the Twitter spaces. Where I'm |
| 1061 | 03:06:35 --> 03:06:43 | calling it look at the tweets, I don't delete one tweet, not one tweet has ever been deleted by me. But when it trades down to the high or the body of that |
| 1062 | 03:06:43 --> 03:06:53 | candle like it does here, in my mind, if I'm bullish, that's exactly what I want to see happen. And if I can't get in on that candle, as soon as the next candle |
| 1063 | 03:06:53 --> 03:07:02 | opens, I'm buying at the market. Immediately I want to just be in it. Why? Because it's going to perform perform just like this. If I'm right in everything |
| 1064 | 03:07:02 --> 03:07:13 | is equal, and I'm on side, that's exactly how the market should behave. And you do not see anybody teach that anywhere. Sorry. But that's just the way it is. |
| 1065 | 03:07:14 --> 03:07:24 | The markets going to reprice at that price point and immediately run and it has nothing to do with this quarter. But that's just one more qualifying thing for |
| 1066 | 03:07:24 --> 03:07:35 | it. It has nothing to do with this breaker right there that's bullish, low, high, lower low take that range extended over here. That's another trade entry. |
| 1067 | 03:07:35 --> 03:07:44 | I'm talking about what I'm seeing in price that candle when it opens and trades right back down to that candles Hi, I'm in if I can get in there I mean, where |
| 1068 | 03:07:44 --> 03:07:58 | would your stop loss be ICT low that candle or at least the consequent I'm sorry, I mean threshold of that candlesticks body it would be this much that's |
| 1069 | 03:07:58 --> 03:08:12 | midpoint or mean threshold, my stop loss has to be below that. And honestly, it would be really at that opening price. That's where I'd have it however many |
| 1070 | 03:08:12 --> 03:08:20 | contracts I can afford to take and trade and use whatever risk parameter would be, say I was risking 2%, two and a half percent. However many contracts I can |
| 1071 | 03:08:20 --> 03:08:29 | afford to trade in that that's how many contracts I would take. I would not be worried I would not be panicking, I would not freak out. I would expect it to do |
| 1072 | 03:08:29 --> 03:08:40 | this very thing. And I've I've shown examples, examples and examples of me trading with it, executing live with it with an amp account. I've done it in TD |
| 1073 | 03:08:40 --> 03:08:50 | Ameritrade account. I've done it with live calling the tape. I've done it with demo accounts. Have example after example of it, all you got to do is go watch |
| 1074 | 03:08:50 --> 03:09:00 | this stuff. It's there. But the logic is if we get a big run candle in a direction that we're looking for the very next candle I'm waiting to see a fair |
| 1075 | 03:09:00 --> 03:09:12 | guy got formed. But if we're lucky and fortunate enough to for it to come right back down to it there. Man, we are in a loaded deal. It's the loaded deal. |
| 1076 | 03:09:13 --> 03:09:16 | Why? Why |
| 1077 | 03:09:17 --> 03:09:30 | did yardie forget what I'm talking about array? Where is it forming? What's this blue level? That's that daily order block. Its opening price is not fucking |
| 1078 | 03:09:30 --> 03:09:39 | zone. It's a very specific price level. It's not ambiguous. So you need to be looking at that level on a lower timeframe. And we're only on an hourly chart. |
| 1079 | 03:09:42 --> 03:09:51 | You think it's just a one minute chart. So I'm teaching students trade on No, you want to capture nice day trades. You're going to be using the 15 Minute an |
| 1080 | 03:09:51 --> 03:09:59 | hourly chart. You want to trade swing trades, you're really trading the four hour and the one hour chart. You want trade position trades and we trade daily |
| 1081 | 03:09:59 --> 03:10:08 | in the week. include chart charts, in the same stuff that occurs there. You never ever, ever need to go below an hourly chart. You don't ever need to do |
| 1082 | 03:10:08 --> 03:10:19 | that. I am just an action hound I know I can do a lot of things in a one minute chart less than one minute chart. And that's not trying to flex, I have a very |
| 1083 | 03:10:19 --> 03:10:29 | quick decision making mechanism in my brain, I can change on a dime. And I can trade up down up down up down all day long, you may not be equipped to do that, |
| 1084 | 03:10:29 --> 03:10:36 | it doesn't mean you're stupid doesn't mean I'm superior, it just means that I match my personality with a timeframe that it works well with me, one hour is |
| 1085 | 03:10:36 --> 03:10:44 | just too damn fucking slow for me, like I want more like I need to be in there doing more. And the way I've done that, because I have the experience and the |
| 1086 | 03:10:44 --> 03:10:53 | maturity to be able to bounce and be responsible with the outcome. If I lose, I can eat that. You might not be able to do that. It might be too much for you to |
| 1087 | 03:10:53 --> 03:11:03 | take, you know, six trades in a day, it might be too much for you to take your 12 trades in a day. In one trade a week may be sufficient for you. And it's hard |
| 1088 | 03:11:03 --> 03:11:12 | for you to get beyond that. Okay, it's nothing wrong with that focus on the four hour and one hour using the process of determining bias. But the magic happens |
| 1089 | 03:11:12 --> 03:11:29 | when you start applying all these things together that flesh out a narrative over here, what's this blue line? That's the higher daily order block, the |
| 1090 | 03:11:29 --> 03:11:38 | opening price, not some random level, it's the same level all the time, all the time, because that's just changing the state delivery. What does that mean when |
| 1091 | 03:11:38 --> 03:11:50 | ICP says it's the change in the state of delivery. Prior to that candlestick forming, the market was going a direction it was going lower. It was a move that |
| 1092 | 03:11:50 --> 03:12:00 | we called and talked about, on April 8, this live stream, I said that we're going to see several 100 handles lower, I didn't talk about going higher, going |
| 1093 | 03:12:00 --> 03:12:11 | lower and was based on seasonal tendency. Because of that, when we have a turn, you don't need to know when it turns, it can stop you out of shorts, and prove |
| 1094 | 03:12:11 --> 03:12:21 | to you that it doesn't want to go any lower than you okay, then you start measuring what I'm showing you on a daily chart. But if you want to use it to |
| 1095 | 03:12:21 --> 03:12:29 | probe any long positions, or if you're confident and convictions are strong enough, you want to be a buyer and hold for longer positions higher, you can key |
| 1096 | 03:12:29 --> 03:12:39 | off those daily levels like this. But in short, what's happening is is if you have an order block opening price, whether it be a bearish or bullish candle, |
| 1097 | 03:12:40 --> 03:12:50 | you need to have those levels transposed to your lower timeframes, because you're missing trades, and you're missing many times the best of the best. Now, |
| 1098 | 03:12:51 --> 03:13:00 | what happens if you can't get in on this move, then you have to enter inside this range here. And you may or may not get an opportunity to do so. It just |
| 1099 | 03:13:00 --> 03:13:09 | might, it might happen that you don't get an instance where it can come back down and trade below a one minute swing low for sellside. They may not have a |
| 1100 | 03:13:09 --> 03:13:20 | fair way to get to the trades down into, they may not give you a one minute or sub one minute foolish breaker. All those things can form inside this. That's |
| 1101 | 03:13:20 --> 03:13:30 | why I taught every PD array that I was willing to share, because they all can be used to get into a move that's already started without you. And it will not |
| 1102 | 03:13:30 --> 03:13:39 | technically be chasing. Because really what you're doing is you're keying off of what a high frequency trading algorithm is going to do anyway. This is a this |
| 1103 | 03:13:39 --> 03:13:49 | isn't the only time to enter. This isn't the only time to enter. There's other places to enter. But those other places need to be balanced. Because I can take |
| 1104 | 03:13:49 --> 03:13:57 | an ad into a position it's already established at a lower price when I'm bullish in that new entry that's been pyramid added in because I'm using smaller |
| 1105 | 03:13:57 --> 03:14:08 | position sizes to add more. I can weather deeper retracements on that later entry, knowing that it can do that. I'm not upset by that. It doesn't change my |
| 1106 | 03:14:08 --> 03:14:16 | convictions about the trade it just means that I have a smaller position. It's incurring a little bit more drawdown because I've added more but I want to be a |
| 1107 | 03:14:16 --> 03:14:27 | part of the larger mood is going to happen after that retracement. So let's look at this little piece of action in here. We're on an hourly chart here. So when |
| 1108 | 03:14:27 --> 03:14:37 | it dropped down, it touched that higher bullish order block the opening price. So it's going to act like what a trampoline is going to spring. It's an it's a |
| 1109 | 03:14:37 --> 03:14:47 | change in a state of delivery. Delivery is directional price run. That's what that is. So if there's a change in the state of delivery, that means what we're |
| 1110 | 03:14:47 --> 03:14:59 | saying is there's going to be a change in the direction of price. So if it was dropping, when it went down into this level here went lower, lower and we |
| 1111 | 03:14:59 --> 03:15:09 | rounded above it this candle, the first return back into it there. What is it? What is it coupled with? It's coupled with an immediate rebounds. It's a bullish |
| 1112 | 03:15:09 --> 03:15:20 | breaker with this candle here, oh breakers when you have a low, high, a lower low that takes that sell side there and then rallies through it. Soon as we come |
| 1113 | 03:15:20 --> 03:15:32 | back down to that highest up close candle, that body extended over that right there is your bullish breaker. That is your order block. That is your immediate |
| 1114 | 03:15:32 --> 03:15:41 | rebalance. That is all occurring at your daily opening price, which is changing the state delivery. That means what's occurring, the algorithm that you don't |
| 1115 | 03:15:41 --> 03:15:49 | believe exists, is now going to spool price higher. And I'm sorry, Chris Lloyd never fucking taught that. And if that offends you go fuck yourself. Because I'm |
| 1116 | 03:15:49 --> 03:15:57 | tired of people leaving comments in there. I've already had Chris Laurie coming up publicly on Twitter and tell you the his shit ain't mine. Done. But this |
| 1117 | 03:15:57 --> 03:16:11 | rally when it runs, what is it reaching for? If there's a change in the state of delivery, it's going to seek the opposing side of what liquidity or inefficiency |
| 1118 | 03:16:13 --> 03:16:21 | that occurs right here to the left. What do we see? Well, we have this little inefficiency here. But we've you know, it's short order to do that. We don't |
| 1119 | 03:16:21 --> 03:16:32 | need it. We don't need it. Just the trade here. We need it to show us a run rate in this price fractal what I'm showing right now, where's it reaching for if |
| 1120 | 03:16:32 --> 03:16:48 | they want to go to by side? Relative equal highs right here? And what the high? What did that convenient time. So your model could be based on using this higher |
| 1121 | 03:16:48 --> 03:17:00 | timeframe order flow around a bullish order block its opening price, which is not ambiguous at all. It's a very specific price level, very specific. And you |
| 1122 | 03:17:00 --> 03:17:09 | drill down and you look for PD arrays to converge around it that supports the idea that it's going to do what go higher, because this change the change in the |
| 1123 | 03:17:09 --> 03:17:19 | state of delivery means it's going to start going higher. So if it's gonna go higher price, pray, tell what is it going to go up there for into where it's |
| 1124 | 03:17:19 --> 03:17:29 | going to go to any inefficiency in close proximity, or buy stops, that's buyside liquidity, friends and neighbors that is short, sweet to the point you can't |
| 1125 | 03:17:29 --> 03:17:41 | reduce it anything less than it it's right to the point. You can't make it any plainer than that. Now the same thing we applied to this, this opening price on |
| 1126 | 03:17:41 --> 03:17:52 | the higher daily order block. what's occurring here, the market creates a consolidation and it needs to do what it dropped down into short term discount. |
| 1127 | 03:17:53 --> 03:18:02 | What does it trade to the order blocks opening price? When it does that it's going to act like a trampoline. Meaning what it's going to go down to it press |
| 1128 | 03:18:02 --> 03:18:14 | into it and spring higher by itself is not useful. You need to see other things confirm it. That's what makes it an order block. If it's just a down closed |
| 1129 | 03:18:14 --> 03:18:27 | candle, that means absolutely nothing. It means absolutely nothing. The price action signatures that you're looking for is a confluence of other factors that |
| 1130 | 03:18:27 --> 03:18:33 | would support the idea that it needs to be responsive at that price point at that time. |
| 1131 | 03:18:36 --> 03:18:38 | Think I think |
| 1132 | 03:18:40 --> 03:18:52 | what else is occurring right here when it drops down and hits that waterblocks opening price? What's it reacting offer? What is this by Sanibel sauce on an |
| 1133 | 03:18:52 --> 03:19:07 | efficiency? This is buyside delivery it's inefficient in what sellside Well, if we measure that from here to here, what are we looking for the best buys the |
| 1134 | 03:19:07 --> 03:19:18 | best buys are going to be at what midpoint or constant encouragement in the upper quadrant whereas the bodies that forgot about that didn't you? The bodies |
| 1135 | 03:19:18 --> 03:19:27 | are telling you they're telegraphing you that we're going higher but we got to damage some people first. There's some bull flag traders in here that already |
| 1136 | 03:19:27 --> 03:19:34 | tried to go long so we're going to stop them out. But as the algorithm is gonna go pull some random number out its ass and say well we're gonna drop down 300 |
| 1137 | 03:19:34 --> 03:19:39 | handles before we start going higher. No, it goes right down to constant encroachment which is the midpoint this by Sanibel sells high efficiencies. |
| 1138 | 03:19:41 --> 03:19:42 | See? |
| 1139 | 03:19:43 --> 03:19:57 | You want it to be you want it to be like Chris Laurie said, where it can come down here in closing this liquidity void. That's not what I want. I don't want |
| 1140 | 03:19:57 --> 03:20:11 | that. I want this piece left open and Sorry, but he's never taught that. Never Taught that until I mentioned that. This needs to stay open ideally. Okay? That |
| 1141 | 03:20:11 --> 03:20:20 | needs to stay open, the best buys are going to happen in the upper quadrant, what looks like a premium to you. But it's not. That's the ideal entry, because |
| 1142 | 03:20:20 --> 03:20:31 | you're already in a discount. You didn't, you didn't get the lesson. You didn't study it enough. You just want the buzzwords, but you don't know what you're |
| 1143 | 03:20:31 --> 03:20:39 | doing when you got to insurance to force something through ignorance. And I know that it upsets you when I talk to you this way. But there's a small sect of my |
| 1144 | 03:20:39 --> 03:20:46 | community that goes around beating their chests thinking they're superior to everybody else, because they can talk like me, but you can't walk like me. And |
| 1145 | 03:20:46 --> 03:20:54 | it's offensive to me as your mentor, and I'm sure it's offensive everybody else. There's a right way to do it. And there's a wrong way to do it. And this ain't |
| 1146 | 03:20:54 --> 03:21:04 | rebranded anything, this is my stuff. We don't want that lower portion to be closed them for overlapped on, we don't want that. Because what that indicates |
| 1147 | 03:21:04 --> 03:21:15 | is, it's exceedingly bullish, this will act as a breakaway gap. That's exactly what we want. We want to see that if we get to a consolidation place in the |
| 1148 | 03:21:15 --> 03:21:26 | price run. And it creates a gap like this, where we want to leave a small portion open, that is a measuring gap. But the fact that it has to be part of a |
| 1149 | 03:21:26 --> 03:21:34 | larger consolidation, or one leg of the price runs already occurred, and then we're consolidating. And then we get another gap where they creates an |
| 1150 | 03:21:34 --> 03:21:41 | environment like I'm explaining here, if it stays open, that to me is going to be a measuring gap. That means it qualifies that we have another price leg |
| 1151 | 03:21:41 --> 03:21:50 | that's going to be equal to the initial move, or maybe even more, but it's going to do it in three quarters of the time that it took to make the first look or |
| 1152 | 03:21:50 --> 03:22:00 | less. So what does that mean? Many times that's your second stage re accumulation in a market maker by or a second stage redistribution in a market |
| 1153 | 03:22:00 --> 03:22:10 | maker sell model. Hot. They just get some gold? Yes, I did in for free. You're welcome. You're absolutely welcome. I'll be here tomorrow and Wednesday. But |
| 1154 | 03:22:10 --> 03:22:21 | let's dig into a little bit more detail. Right now here. This is an hourly chart. That was that's our higher timeframe bullish order block. opening price. |
| 1155 | 03:22:22 --> 03:22:30 | It's a change in state delivery. That means what was it doing users dropping down? We're going to anticipate what that trampling that Springboard effect off |
| 1156 | 03:22:30 --> 03:22:37 | of that level, we have to have something else we already have it on the same timeframe, which is consequent encroachment of the spots on demand. So some |
| 1157 | 03:22:37 --> 03:22:47 | efficiency. Why Why should you have that rule because I CTF teaches that you don't want to see every imbalance completely closed in. That's what gives you |
| 1158 | 03:22:47 --> 03:22:54 | the narrative. If it's always able to come back down and fill in every single box that amount. So it's on an efficiency, we're probably near the end of the |
| 1159 | 03:22:54 --> 03:23:04 | price run. Think they don't have any time to waste. If they kind of come down here. That means it's kind of gonna be able to authority price run. I don't want |
| 1160 | 03:23:04 --> 03:23:08 | to be part of that kind of stuff. I want to be in the ones that take off and it's like, |
| 1161 | 03:23:08 --> 03:23:10 | what the hell is things flying? |
| 1162 | 03:23:10 --> 03:23:18 | It's like hyperspace warp speed like truck new Star Trek man, we're we're in the enterprise, it just take off. And everything's a blur. It's kind of felt like |
| 1163 | 03:23:18 --> 03:23:25 | when I was on a motorcycle doing 155 On and on Pulaski highway, I could only see like a six inch diameter right in front of me. That was clear. Everything else |
| 1164 | 03:23:25 --> 03:23:32 | was a blur. What a fucking high was that? It was amazing. That's the kind of trades I want to be a part of. I want to have immediate feedback. I want |
| 1165 | 03:23:32 --> 03:23:38 | immediate handshake to profitability. I'm not wasting any time. I want to be in the trades that immediately talk back and say yeah, |
| 1166 | 03:23:38 --> 03:23:44 | you are the shit today. Stop around peacock do everything that makes you feel good |
| 1167 | 03:23:44 --> 03:23:51 | because you got to winter hold this motherfucker. Because it's going, it's going in, it's going and there's no doubt about it. Nobody on the internet's gonna |
| 1168 | 03:23:51 --> 03:24:00 | take take you out of that you're gonna you're dialed in you feel good, because everything you're looking for is there. And guess what? When you can trade like |
| 1169 | 03:24:00 --> 03:24:08 | that, and you're willing to share it live and public and everything else. It comes across as arrogance. Because those people can't do it. And I let them have |
| 1170 | 03:24:08 --> 03:24:15 | that moment. Let them feel like they're talking down to me, Oh, you're arrogant, you're pompous, you're a bragger you're this You're that whatever. When you can |
| 1171 | 03:24:15 --> 03:24:22 | do it, you're gonna you're gonna feel the same way. But I'm not going around stabbing people in the eyeball with order blocks saying you're stupid that you |
| 1172 | 03:24:22 --> 03:24:31 | can't trade them. I'm literally giving it to you. I'm teaching it to you. I want you to experience what it feels like to do this though properly. I would be |
| 1173 | 03:24:31 --> 03:24:43 | completely irresponsible as a mentor to sit back and let everybody else out here misinform you with ignorance. I want you to succeed. I want you to have success. |
| 1174 | 03:24:43 --> 03:24:50 | I want you to make more fucking money than you ever dreamed before. And then when you have that money, I don't want you to be selfish with it. I want you to |
| 1175 | 03:24:50 --> 03:24:59 | do something nice for other people. That's the story I want. That's the payback to me. I want that. I want that testimony. I don't want I just bought a new car. |
| 1176 | 03:24:59 --> 03:25:09 | I'll lot of new house Rama Mom, that's wonderful. But what did you do outside of your own? That's what I'm looking for. That's how you pay me back. Because all |
| 1177 | 03:25:09 --> 03:25:16 | the other stuff I get, it's like, but are we traveling dropped down to a 15 minute timeframe, we're focusing primarily right in here. Okay, we already have |
| 1178 | 03:25:16 --> 03:25:25 | one qualifying thing, which is a transplant critical that by Sanibel, some efficiency, it should lead this portion open down here. In hindsight, yes, we |
| 1179 | 03:25:25 --> 03:25:34 | can see that's happened. But that's the rules that are taught on Twitter spaces. That's the rules I've taught in lectures. I just taught it in the the recent |
| 1180 | 03:25:34 --> 03:25:45 | teaching on April 8, you want to see that lower portion not filled in, the more times you see that man, that is telling you, this son of a bitch is going |
| 1181 | 03:25:45 --> 03:25:55 | higher, stop looking for tops stop trying to go short, it's going higher, it needs to go somewhere higher. That's what it's indicating to you. You can't get |
| 1182 | 03:25:55 --> 03:26:05 | a better visual representation of confirming and qualifying a setup, then that that is the signature that I'm looking for. If I'm trading a bull flag, bull |
| 1183 | 03:26:05 --> 03:26:12 | flag bull shoulder block, I want the lower portion of that candlestick not to even be traded to it can touch the mean threshold halfway point. But if it does |
| 1184 | 03:26:12 --> 03:26:22 | that, it needs to immediately kick off and start running. If I'm trading a fair value gap, I am bullish, I want the upper portion to be responsive. I don't want |
| 1185 | 03:26:22 --> 03:26:31 | to see it dilly dallying around at all. And that lower half. I don't want to see that. If I start seeing that. As soon as I see any momentum waning after starts |
| 1186 | 03:26:31 --> 03:26:38 | to run. I'm scaling something and I'm more inclined to start taking partial. Why does ICP take this many partials off here on this trade? I just fucking told |
| 1187 | 03:26:38 --> 03:26:38 | you. |
| 1188 | 03:26:39 --> 03:26:40 | I literally just told you. |
| 1189 | 03:26:41 --> 03:26:50 | Now imagine, okay, imagine that you sat down for the first time this is your first time watching or listening to me. This shit sounds like another line that |
| 1190 | 03:26:50 --> 03:26:58 | you've never learned still. And it still talks. It seems like oh, it's the hindsight. But you've watched me do it. If you've been around for a while you |
| 1191 | 03:26:58 --> 03:27:05 | literally watch me trade this, you literally watch me call it live on Twitter, minute by minute, one minute candles, outlining it, why it should do this where |
| 1192 | 03:27:05 --> 03:27:12 | it's gonna go next, all that shit, I go in other people's live stream, and I tell them where it's gonna go before it happens. And still people doubt this |
| 1193 | 03:27:12 --> 03:27:19 | stuff. You can go out here and do everything in front of them. And they're still gonna find some fault with you because they can't do it. So don't invite them |
| 1194 | 03:27:19 --> 03:27:28 | into your problem. The problem is you solving who you are as a trader. And when you see these signatures repeat over and over and over and over again. It builds |
| 1195 | 03:27:28 --> 03:27:42 | confidence. And when it's so open, it comes across as arrogance. It comes across as prideful. It's not, it's confidence. It's Unshakable Confidence, that nothing |
| 1196 | 03:27:42 --> 03:27:49 | else can come close to this. And when you get that and you tap into that there's absolutely no fucking person on this internet that's going to talk you out of |
| 1197 | 03:27:49 --> 03:27:57 | what you feel about it. Because you experienced it. You lived it, you're walking it. You're making their yearly fucking salary in a week laughing at them without |
| 1198 | 03:27:57 --> 03:28:05 | needing to do it publicly. That's living well, that's the best fucking revenge. That's the best revenge. Let them talk all the shit about how you're never going |
| 1199 | 03:28:05 --> 03:28:11 | to learn how to do this stuff. It's never gonna work for you, blah, blah, blah. I got people that are millionaires now. Hello, millionaires that had the same |
| 1200 | 03:28:11 --> 03:28:12 | shit told him. |
| 1201 | 03:28:14 --> 03:28:16 | Who do you want to believe? |
| 1202 | 03:28:17 --> 03:28:23 | Who are you gonna believe you're gonna believe the guy that's creating the people for free. They don't have to pay for this stuff anymore. They're going |
| 1203 | 03:28:23 --> 03:28:32 | out there. And they're making life changing amounts of money, and changing their whole dynamic. Their whole fucking family trees been uprooted and planted in a |
| 1204 | 03:28:32 --> 03:28:40 | new vineyard. Because they took the initiative to say, You know what, I just want to try and see if this stuff will work for me. And I'm going to put some |
| 1205 | 03:28:40 --> 03:28:49 | real effort into not two weeks, not couple months, I'm going to stick this out and see if it works for you. And as you go, you'll see progress and you'll see |
| 1206 | 03:28:49 --> 03:28:58 | things that will increase your tenacity to stay with it. And it becomes infectious. And that's why many times is we are a cult, and we are the fucking |
| 1207 | 03:28:58 --> 03:29:06 | cult of winning. We went around here, we win we don't get we don't get in a fucking trade and make seven handles and say, Okay, so a lot of fucking |
| 1208 | 03:29:06 --> 03:29:14 | pressure. I gotta get off with this man. And then I caught him when 50 Fucking handles that. Why don't you in the 50 handles? Why don't you enter 50 handles in |
| 1209 | 03:29:14 --> 03:29:27 | the same account that you passed. There's a problem there. You need to fix that. That's an opportunity. Instead of addressing them, you're trying to appease an |
| 1210 | 03:29:27 --> 03:29:35 | audience, fuck the audience. Let me tell you something, I want all of you to do well. But if you don't have an opinion of me, as someone that's trying to help |
| 1211 | 03:29:35 --> 03:29:44 | you, you think I'm a piece of shit. And I'm not trying to be here to do anything to encourage you or do it the right way. I don't really care about your opinion. |
| 1212 | 03:29:44 --> 03:29:51 | It has no bearing on how I live. The people that give me feedback and say, You know what, I really got something that inspired me. It showed something that I |
| 1213 | 03:29:51 --> 03:29:59 | was an uncertainty about something I had a doubt about what I should be focusing on here. This helped me focus on what it is I should be looking at. It really |
| 1214 | 03:29:59 --> 03:30:11 | made a strong actual process or procedure I need to go in and look at, this helped me, I do it for that. There's no ad revenue on that. That is exactly what |
| 1215 | 03:30:11 --> 03:30:17 | I'm trying to tap into people that are willing to want to learn how to do this correctly, they know it's going to be hard work. They know they have to overcome |
| 1216 | 03:30:17 --> 03:30:26 | a demon, and maybe demons in their selves, that they're going to be plaguing their development. I didn't cause them, maybe you didn't cause them, but you all |
| 1217 | 03:30:26 --> 03:30:35 | have them. I had them. I still wrestle with a lot of stuff. But you still have to wrestle them, and put them into submission, and then stick to a process of |
| 1218 | 03:30:35 --> 03:30:43 | learning how to do this. Because if it's not going to be this, what's it going to be moving average crossovers, okay? It's going to be pivot points, harmonic |
| 1219 | 03:30:43 --> 03:30:50 | horseshit, you know what's it going to be, because until you fix the you problem, all these things are going to resurface. And you're not going to focus |
| 1220 | 03:30:50 --> 03:30:56 | on the processes that work if you give it enough time and effort. So we're gonna drop down to 15 and timeframe again, we're looking right at this price level |
| 1221 | 03:30:56 --> 03:31:09 | right there. That come off my soapbox. Same thing in here we're looking at relative equal lows. So there's a sell side liquidity pool being engineered |
| 1222 | 03:31:09 --> 03:31:18 | there. Look what they do. They run first hired to what does that do? It triggers Long's. Why would they want that? Because if they're gonna go long, they're |
| 1223 | 03:31:18 --> 03:31:24 | gonna put what sell stops? Where are they going to put them in below the relative equal lows? Well, then that can be because right down here is that |
| 1224 | 03:31:24 --> 03:31:33 | order block. And right down in here is that consequent encroachment of the ONE HOUR BY SIDE analysis on efficiency. So now we have liquidity engineered rate at |
| 1225 | 03:31:33 --> 03:31:45 | a bar Sanibel sudden efficiencies, consequent encroachment, or midpoint of that gap. Is that three? That's three. That's three things we have inefficiency being |
| 1226 | 03:31:45 --> 03:31:57 | factored in, and liquidity now. So when it hits this price level, what should it do ICT it should applicants trampoline, Springboard higher? Does it do so? |
| 1227 | 03:31:57 --> 03:32:09 | Absolutely. So I've taught you how to look at older blocks, how to qualify them, they got to be in a discount or premium. The higher timeframe once you need to |
| 1228 | 03:32:09 --> 03:32:18 | transpose those levels to the lower timeframe. And when you go into the lower timeframe, you want them to be in agreement with at least three PD arrays, three |
| 1229 | 03:32:18 --> 03:32:29 | more things that justify the level of it of an order blocks opening price or mean threshold is in and of itself by itself useless. They are the markers in |
| 1230 | 03:32:29 --> 03:32:39 | which you go into price. And you study around that. And if you have three PV arrays, three reasons whether it be liquidity or specific price levels, that is |
| 1231 | 03:32:39 --> 03:32:48 | a PD, right? Liquidity is always a PD array. And it's dynamic. It can be in any timeframe, any level of premium or discount. But when it's coupled with a level |
| 1232 | 03:32:48 --> 03:32:58 | that is expected to promote higher prices, it's a slam dunk. Like it's a slam dunk. There's, there's nothing to consider about it. It's easy. It's just, it's |
| 1233 | 03:32:58 --> 03:33:05 | just waiting for you to get in it. If you don't get it, just take the next one. Because there's they're going to repeat every week, every day. It won't stop. |
| 1234 | 03:33:05 --> 03:33:14 | That's our moniker here. We, it never changes. It just gets more precise. It gets more detailed, more confidence building. Because we're not reinventing |
| 1235 | 03:33:14 --> 03:33:22 | anything. We're not changing parameters. We're not moving the goalposts. We're not saying when PV arrays grow growing in popularity, so therefore, that's the |
| 1236 | 03:33:22 --> 03:33:31 | better one. Any one of those PD arrays can be a catalyst. That's why it's important for you to just pick one to warm up to first. But you're going to want |
| 1237 | 03:33:31 --> 03:33:39 | to go into all of them eventually, for you to get a well rounded, comprehensive visual representation of what price is doing algorithmically. So here's what it |
| 1238 | 03:33:39 --> 03:33:43 | looks like on the 15 minute chart we'll just drop down for shits and giggles on the five minute chart |
| 1239 | 03:33:50 --> 03:34:00 | excuse me, left down close candle displacement to the upside. Did we trade to consequent curtailment of that by Sanibel. Sound efficiency and the upper |
| 1240 | 03:34:00 --> 03:34:12 | opening price on a daily bullish order block that level here? Yes. Debussy displacement. This candle? Yes. Last down close candle. What is the change in |
| 1241 | 03:34:12 --> 03:34:29 | the state of delivery? What prices is the opening price? We're opening prices that look very lucky. We're opening price 70,007 10 and a half. price comes down |
| 1242 | 03:34:29 --> 03:34:43 | trades to the low of that candle. What's the low? Something 1007 Zero 9.25. Did it respond? Did it respond? Did it prove there's a change in the state of living |
| 1243 | 03:34:43 --> 03:34:52 | and algorithmic? algorithmically repriced higher you're gonna tell me that's buying and selling pressure that's buyers came in there right. Buyers did that |
| 1244 | 03:34:52 --> 03:34:52 | right? |
| 1245 | 03:34:55 --> 03:34:58 | Yeah, I love it. I love it. I will read |
| 1246 | 03:34:58 --> 03:35:07 | and people talk that bullshit because that didn't have Okay, that did not happen. Price expanded higher. And then when we have here, you miss this down |
| 1247 | 03:35:07 --> 03:35:16 | here you weren't able to dial in, no problem. We're on a five minute chart. We're in a five minute chart. We're still we're still below equilibrium. So |
| 1248 | 03:35:16 --> 03:35:28 | we're in what we're in a discount. So can we take a fair value gap entry? Absolutely. Yes, we can, Virginia. So watch. Here is your fair value got right |
| 1249 | 03:35:28 --> 03:35:36 | there. See that? We're gonna take this off, because we've already highlighted the area to start looking for the setup. But right in here, where's the best |
| 1250 | 03:35:36 --> 03:35:44 | entry ICT? Can you just cut the bullshit and tell me how to buy a fair value gap appropriately? Tell me where to put a stop loss. Where's the best entry? How |
| 1251 | 03:35:44 --> 03:35:53 | should I? How should I trade it? Okay, you listen, you listen. Put the fucking Doritos down to take your headphones off with your music while it's pumping |
| 1252 | 03:35:53 --> 03:36:14 | behind me talking. Listen, this candle right there, okay, you want your entry to be in the upper portion. That price level or higher. You can save yourself a lot |
| 1253 | 03:36:14 --> 03:36:26 | of heartache by just simply going in one tick. Below the high of it. Your risk is the low that creates the fair value gap candle. To turn about how many |
| 1254 | 03:36:26 --> 03:36:35 | contracts you can afford by whatever risk parameter you're using. While you're learning, use one half of 1%. And that means you're probably going to be using |
| 1255 | 03:36:35 --> 03:36:45 | micros. And guess what? That's not a problem. It's only problem for short tic energy people. So if you look at this right here, that gives you your framework, |
| 1256 | 03:36:45 --> 03:37:00 | what was the what was the midpoint here, or consequent procurement 17,007 70.25. It trades down and offers that price level plus it's tick. Low is 17,007 68 and |
| 1257 | 03:37:00 --> 03:37:14 | three quarters. Spreads not gonna be a factor there for you. I never listened to me, folks. This is a this is a constant. I never use the consequent encroachment |
| 1258 | 03:37:14 --> 03:37:22 | level as a limit order. I never do that I was times when I tried to do that. Because I wanted to be really, really in here to lowest low and I wanted to be |
| 1259 | 03:37:22 --> 03:37:37 | Mr. Ego kitty go, okay. I missed some really good trades, some phenomenal trades like huge, huge runs. Because I demanded that much precision. There's a |
| 1260 | 03:37:37 --> 03:37:46 | balancing act here that you're going to have to manage, okay. If you don't get the lowest low, and you're off by two and a half handles, and you're able to |
| 1261 | 03:37:46 --> 03:38:02 | capture 100 handles or more risking. Not very much at all. Are you going to lose sleep over that. Because if you are, you have some work to do your your |
| 1262 | 03:38:02 --> 03:38:13 | expectations are too high. The upper portion of an order block from its midpoint to a tie every fair value gap from its midpoint to a tie. If you're buying. |
| 1263 | 03:38:13 --> 03:38:21 | That's your ideal entry. Is there anything wrong with trying to buy the midpoint between consequent encroachment in the high now that's usually route that's a |
| 1264 | 03:38:21 --> 03:38:30 | sweet spot where I like do most of my buying, my largest portion entry will be in that vicinity. And then sometimes when it's still meandering around in here |
| 1265 | 03:38:31 --> 03:38:40 | in the same candle, I might fancy dance and add a little bit more because if I see something in a chat room, for I see a lot of chatter about something that's |
| 1266 | 03:38:40 --> 03:38:47 | opposed to what I'm in, I'm going to try to get on that thinking a little bit there. Because I might not get an opportunity for it to come back and revisit |
| 1267 | 03:38:47 --> 03:38:59 | this area again. But it's important to know that you don't have to be the perfect entry. I've wasted decades, folks, I'm gonna be honest with you. I've |
| 1268 | 03:38:59 --> 03:39:14 | wasted decades, trying to do something that I've not been able to dial in on in perfect exits. But you don't need perfect exits to make money. The same side of |
| 1269 | 03:39:15 --> 03:39:28 | the equation. You don't need perfect entries. They don't need to be perfect. But they have to be logical. They have to be in a capacity to allow you and afford |
| 1270 | 03:39:28 --> 03:39:37 | you to manage the risk that's associated with that setup. And if you discount the necessity to manage the risk, and only try to look for the largest position |
| 1271 | 03:39:37 --> 03:39:49 | size that you can place on every trade, you enter, you're doing it wrong. You're doing it wrong. You're going to be flicking more needless scar tissue that will |
| 1272 | 03:39:49 --> 03:39:57 | never go away because you're trying to do things your way. Your way in ignorance. You think you're gonna come out here and do it better than somebody |
| 1273 | 03:39:57 --> 03:40:09 | else that has proven with other people listening to them, bringing home the receipts of that, you're going to be the head of the class, you're going to be |
| 1274 | 03:40:09 --> 03:40:19 | teacher's pet, you're going to do it your way mentality. I have had so many students come to me and try that approach in tearful emails and voicemails, and |
| 1275 | 03:40:20 --> 03:40:28 | sending me face to face videos, where they're literally telling me like, this is what I've done. How can I fix this problem, I've done this, I've done that. And |
| 1276 | 03:40:28 --> 03:40:36 | I said, go back and listen. And they up, they put down all their other reasons why they're trying to do it. They put down on trying to look good enough guys of |
| 1277 | 03:40:36 --> 03:40:50 | social media, I'm trying to just focus on making money, I'm not trying to impress my ex girlfriend, I'm not trying to impress my ex, anybody. They're |
| 1278 | 03:40:50 --> 03:40:59 | trying to get good at it for the sake of being good at it. Because the default to that is your profitable, how profitable you be, that's determined upon how |
| 1279 | 03:40:59 --> 03:41:09 | much you can manage money. And that's a lesson outside the scope of all this does, it's reasonable to assume that if you do the right things, and you're not |
| 1280 | 03:41:09 --> 03:41:18 | over leveraging, you should be profitable. Should is not a guarantee. But you have to have a framework, you have to have about a foundation to build upon |
| 1281 | 03:41:18 --> 03:41:28 | before you can reasonably expect that that is going to be the outcome for you. And if you're not willing to subject yourself to the process of going through |
| 1282 | 03:41:28 --> 03:41:39 | this, looking for it in hindsight, that's how I did it. I went back and I found them nice, okay, these things tend to happen all the time when this occurs when |
| 1283 | 03:41:39 --> 03:41:57 | these confluence of events occur at this time, at this time. Go back and look at the examples. But times are happening. What candle time is it on right now? Are |
| 1284 | 03:41:57 --> 03:42:08 | not that green in that? Day, no fucking macros notary. Let them believe it. When they say it, let them believe it. Don't try to convince them otherwise, let them |
| 1285 | 03:42:08 --> 03:42:19 | stay in fucking ignorance, let them stay there. They chose it ain't done the due diligence to go back and see and prove to themselves. Let them stay stupid. Let |
| 1286 | 03:42:19 --> 03:42:27 | them stay stupid, you can't fix stupid. I've had a lot of students come to me with a case of as and they knew how to be taught, you need to teach me Get the |
| 1287 | 03:42:27 --> 03:42:38 | fuck out of here. Get out of here, I ain't got time for you. Goodbye, band goodbye. If you're not willing to listen, because the all the evidence is here, |
| 1288 | 03:42:38 --> 03:42:47 | you can see it working. You've got students all around the world proving it. What's keeping you you're elevated expectations and trying to live up to them. |
| 1289 | 03:42:48 --> 03:42:58 | And you doing it all wrong. It needs to be boring. It needs not keep you up at night. If you're worried about this shit in bed for you go to sleep, your |
| 1290 | 03:42:58 --> 03:43:11 | expectations are too high. too high, you're placing too much pressure on yourself. Relax, this stuff is not hiding from you anymore. They cannot hide it |
| 1291 | 03:43:11 --> 03:43:26 | from you. They cannot hide this from you. Okay. It's always going to be there. As long as these markets are trading, these things are always going to be there. |
| 1292 | 03:43:26 --> 03:43:39 | Why? Because people are greedy. They're going to buy and they're going to sell and when they put a stop loss in there, it's waiting to be fleeced. Nobody's |
| 1293 | 03:43:39 --> 03:43:46 | going to turn the industry upside down and say here's how you trade properly and never need to use a stop loss. That's not going to happen. A lot of people try |
| 1294 | 03:43:46 --> 03:43:55 | to do that on YouTube. They try to sell that idea in Instagram, maybe on Twitter. But that shit don't hold water those that dog won't hunt. |
| 1295 | 03:43:58 --> 03:44:05 | So you need to stop worrying about they're going to change. They're not going to change shit. There's a new line of suckers coming in trying to use John Murphy's |
| 1296 | 03:44:05 --> 03:44:14 | bullshit. Okay, there's always new people coming here all time trying to trade support resistance and moving average crossovers. There's a whole cult in |
| 1297 | 03:44:14 --> 03:44:25 | religion around zoo patterns, harmonic horseshit. That stuff doesn't have any bearing on why price is going to do what it's doing. Nothing has nothing. It's |
| 1298 | 03:44:25 --> 03:44:37 | just that's a convenient anomaly. That's all it is. Because large institutions are not basing their they're not basing their trades with billions of dollars on |
| 1299 | 03:44:37 --> 03:44:50 | the basis of a fucking harmonic cactus pattern that, you know, some goober drawl some kind of a emblem or whatever on a chart. It says this is what it is. That's |
| 1300 | 03:44:50 --> 03:45:04 | a gimmick. The market goes high for inefficiency or stops. The market goes down for inefficiencies or stops A prolonged lose just goes for further out liquidity |
| 1301 | 03:45:04 --> 03:45:17 | or inefficiencies. It's not buying and selling pressure period. It's controlled, absolutely 100% All the time 100%, manipulated, controlled and delivered based |
| 1302 | 03:45:17 --> 03:45:26 | on what they want to happen. That's how it is. That's all it is. It's a big Casino. And all you have to do is walk the aisles, walk the aisles and wait for |
| 1303 | 03:45:26 --> 03:45:35 | street money to get off those slot machines that are up that hill, because they can't see the opportunity. They can't see the opportunity that they've created. |
| 1304 | 03:45:36 --> 03:45:45 | By leaving by being on the other side of the trade. The other side of trade where they think that this isn't going to go up for me ain't going to pay me |
| 1305 | 03:45:45 --> 03:45:55 | out. So I'm going to leave it I'm going to go chase another setup another pattern, another machine. Another approach to trading and right when they are |
| 1306 | 03:45:55 --> 03:46:06 | diametrically opposed to when you want to be entering a trade, you sit down, you put your money in the trade, you pull the arm down, and you wait for it to |
| 1307 | 03:46:06 --> 03:46:17 | deliver the 777 Jackpot. And when it pays you, you get the fuck off that machine and leave and you wait for another day another opportunity. Not wow, I just got |
| 1308 | 03:46:17 --> 03:46:24 | this jackpot. I'm gonna put some more money in this same machine expected. That's what you did when you won money in your account and you trade and you |
| 1309 | 03:46:24 --> 03:46:34 | weren't satisfied with it. You go in and you turn that winning day into a losing day? How many times have you seen people do that? How many times have you done |
| 1310 | 03:46:34 --> 03:46:41 | that? Could have been avoided? Yes. When you make money, stop, |
| 1311 | 03:46:42 --> 03:46:46 | stop. But I could make you could make more |
| 1312 | 03:46:46 --> 03:46:56 | yes, you could. And you can make more of an asset of yourself by giving away a profitable day. And it happens every single day. So there's a long line of |
| 1313 | 03:46:56 --> 03:47:07 | suckers coming in here every single day, new money, New Street Money, same logic, I'm gonna get real rich real easy, because Instagram boys told me. |
| 1314 | 03:47:10 --> 03:47:34 | Anyway, I'm having a lot of fun with this and be honest with you. So we have a gap here, what time of Days NEW week opening up, new week opening gap. That gap, |
| 1315 | 03:47:34 --> 03:47:49 | many times will be retreated to not just once, multiple times, multiple times in the course of a week. Every single time you see an opening gap like that, I |
| 1316 | 03:47:49 --> 03:48:01 | don't care if it's one tick. That's always in my analysis. I'll come I'm telling you right now. It's just that simple. That opening gap will be referred to all |
| 1317 | 03:48:01 --> 03:48:11 | week long when price is in close proximity to it. Many times it can act as a target for a trade many times it'll act as an entry. And or it can be acted as |
| 1318 | 03:48:12 --> 03:48:21 | acted, it can act as a buffer for a level for where your stop needs to be above or below. Because it can it can reprice to it all week long. And if you start |
| 1319 | 03:48:21 --> 03:48:38 | putting a stop loss rate at that same general area, you're asking for it to be hit. Yeah, and the same thing with a new day opening. In dog, if you place your |
| 1320 | 03:48:38 --> 03:48:49 | stop loss on any trade inside a new day opening gap or a new week opening gap, you're basically saying, you know, here's my last backup backup into it, don't |
| 1321 | 03:48:49 --> 03:48:59 | lose it. You're asking for it. You're you're begging them to do that to you. Until you learned about it, you never would have understood that person for the |
| 1322 | 03:48:59 --> 03:49:09 | principle. But it's that's what's going on. You don't want to place a stop loss in a level that is more prone to be revisited. You don't want to do that. There |
| 1323 | 03:49:09 --> 03:49:22 | are times when an order block or fair value gap will fill in that entire range. It doesn't mean it's a bad trade, it doesn't mean that it's not going to run for |
| 1324 | 03:49:22 --> 03:49:29 | you. But when it does completely close in its range or completely trade all the way to the bottom of the body of the candlestick. That makes it the order block. |
| 1325 | 03:49:30 --> 03:49:41 | Then you must demand superior price delivery where it's got to be explosive. Like it's got to be off the rails volatility straight one direction, one line |
| 1326 | 03:49:41 --> 03:49:52 | straight win rates of profit. No dilly dallying around no consolidation, no bull flagging none of that stuff. It needs to be absolutely like a bullet taking off |
| 1327 | 03:49:52 --> 03:50:01 | right to the target. Because if you don't treat it like that, and you don't take partials, you know you're gonna it's gonna turn into a losing trade. It's |
| 1328 | 03:50:01 --> 03:50:11 | simple, and it's hard waiting for it. It's hard managing it and thinking about all these things while you're in a trade. Now think about how hard and complex |
| 1329 | 03:50:11 --> 03:50:19 | you think it is right now. And then I gotta type all this stuff out while I'm doing a trade on a one minute chart or a 32nd chart or a 15 second chart that |
| 1330 | 03:50:19 --> 03:50:29 | proves visibility that proves that number one, I can convey the idea on Twitter, either typing it out, or talking to audibly in a Twitter space, referring to |
| 1331 | 03:50:29 --> 03:50:41 | every one individual moment handle. If there wasn't a logic behind, I wouldn't be able to do that. But because there is a logic behind it, because there is a |
| 1332 | 03:50:41 --> 03:50:50 | reason for it, it can be repeated. And that means you can learn how to do it. And you won't need to come back to my YouTube channel, you won't need to worry |
| 1333 | 03:50:50 --> 03:51:00 | about what I'm doing. How did you trade the day? How did you do this? What markets trade? Why did you won't care. You won't, you won't need that outside |
| 1334 | 03:51:01 --> 03:51:14 | confirmation or encouragement, your results will be encouraged enough. And that was a very hard thing for me to learn where I had to find the approval. As a |
| 1335 | 03:51:14 --> 03:51:24 | young boy, I always thought that because my parents, the whole show I gave you before, they didn't want me. So I had to always seek approval outwardly. And the |
| 1336 | 03:51:24 --> 03:51:34 | results that you find in doing the right thing, controlling your, your method of managing the money and the risk, and then seeing how it delivers and pans out |
| 1337 | 03:51:34 --> 03:51:45 | and you grow as a trader and your understanding and your results. That is what you'll get the attaboy at a girl for that's the the approval that you're really |
| 1338 | 03:51:45 --> 03:51:55 | seeking. And being content with that not needing to have outward confirmation that you're a really good trader, or you're a really good tape reader, or you're |
| 1339 | 03:51:55 --> 03:52:03 | a really profitable trader, you're better than that trader and that chatter, look, all of that isn't going to help you pay your bills, it isn't going to it |
| 1340 | 03:52:03 --> 03:52:14 | isn't going to change your legacy wealth. It's a distraction. And what that's doing is it's appeasing the discomfort that you're feeling while you're learning |
| 1341 | 03:52:14 --> 03:52:20 | to get to the point where you're bored with your results. Because you know what you're doing works, doesn't mean you're going to be profit every time you take a |
| 1342 | 03:52:20 --> 03:52:32 | trade, but by far and large, your monthly, your monthly results should be net gain, your yearly results should be net gain. And having any conclusion about |
| 1343 | 03:52:32 --> 03:52:40 | how it should be better. That would have been better if how if you do that you're creating scar tissue. Don't do it. Don't compare yourself to me, Don't |
| 1344 | 03:52:40 --> 03:52:48 | compare yourself to other traders. Don't allow yourself to be treated, not treated, but compared to by anyone else. Don't do it. You don't owe these people |
| 1345 | 03:52:48 --> 03:52:55 | anything. Social media has a funny way of making you feel like you're obligated to do this stuff. Bullshit. You don't need to know what I'm doing. You don't |
| 1346 | 03:52:55 --> 03:53:06 | need to know what anybody else is doing. But the ones that are willing to share it. They should be respected. Because not everybody is willing to do that. And |
| 1347 | 03:53:06 --> 03:53:19 | it takes up at a lady student of mine. She just mentioned that she's she's entertained the idea of live streaming. And Ivy Lee said don't do it. And |
| 1348 | 03:53:19 --> 03:53:28 | thankfully, I had other students came behind and supported that idea. Because if you're finding profitability now, and you feel the inclination, you want to go |
| 1349 | 03:53:28 --> 03:53:37 | out and prove it to other people, because then telling you that you're doing it good. That's that's what you need, then you haven't done it enough to be bored |
| 1350 | 03:53:37 --> 03:53:43 | with the results to know that what you're doing works. So stay right in the position you're at right now, which I'm going to roll in circle right back to |
| 1351 | 03:53:44 --> 03:53:56 | Matt Miller. Matt, if you're listening, I'm telling you, don't change anything, don't increase frequency. Don't increase leverage, don't change anything. If |
| 1352 | 03:53:56 --> 03:54:03 | you're going to do something different. Do it outside the accounts that you're doing what you're doing in now, don't do anything differently. And you will have |
| 1353 | 03:54:03 --> 03:54:08 | a banner year, a blockbuster year, and it needs to be boring. |
| 1354 | 03:54:08 --> 03:54:10 | It needs to be boring. |
| 1355 | 03:54:10 --> 03:54:17 | Just like a fucking job. It's the same mundane bullshit. You know, when you put the time in, you're going to get the same paycheck every week, it's going to be |
| 1356 | 03:54:17 --> 03:54:22 | the same thing. You're not going to be surprised you don't think Oh, what the hell happened? I think get all the minuses get. If there's a problem, go to HR |
| 1357 | 03:54:22 --> 03:54:32 | and fix it. But here you are HR, you are the CEO, you are the boss, you're the captain of the ship. And you know, you've said it audibly. Your fight fighting |
| 1358 | 03:54:32 --> 03:54:42 | the impulse to do more. You're reading comments and the audience is telling you to do this and do that. Fuck them. Fuck them. |
| 1359 | 03:54:42 --> 03:54:44 | They're not doing it. You |
| 1360 | 03:54:44 --> 03:54:52 | are you're assuming the risk. You're you're you're doing all the heavy lifting, but you're gonna listen to other people give you advice. These people on social |
| 1361 | 03:54:52 --> 03:55:00 | media are fucking wild. They have no idea what they're doing, but they're trying to advise other people to fuck out of here. So my advice sincerely enclosing, |
| 1362 | 03:55:02 --> 03:55:13 | don't do more than what's necessary. Think about it, man. $160,000 In two months are the equivalent. |
| 1363 | 03:55:15 --> 03:55:17 | You're killing it, you're killing it. |
| 1364 | 03:55:18 --> 03:55:27 | And you had losing days and it didn't even bother you. You live streamed it on top of everything else that demands and commands respect, and you got mine, you |
| 1365 | 03:55:27 --> 03:55:42 | got it. So don't change it. You have exactly what everybody else would cut their left arm off for. And you're walking it in front, everybody. And that's good. |
| 1366 | 03:55:42 --> 03:55:52 | And you're not dealing with an ego. That's beautiful. You're not talking down about any other trader. Fucking beautiful. That's how this industry should be. |
| 1367 | 03:55:53 --> 03:55:59 | That's how it should be. Not some drama bullshit, trying to get some kind of clicks because you can't trade properly. You got to delete your fucking streams, |
| 1368 | 03:56:00 --> 03:56:09 | no deleted streams, let everything as it is, when you have a losing trade. You leave it up. That's awesome. You don't make excuses for it, you own it. That's |
| 1369 | 03:56:09 --> 03:56:19 | exactly how it's supposed to be. That's exactly how it is. And when you're really trading, and you are by yourself. And I love it. Because I've watched a |
| 1370 | 03:56:19 --> 03:56:28 | lot of people troll you and ain't coming close to what you're doing. And that to me is fucking poetry. I love that. I love it. And I don't need to name them. |
| 1371 | 03:56:28 --> 03:56:33 | They know who the fuck they are. Believe me, they're fucking answers pucker and right now, because they were all please don't say my name. We all know who you |
| 1372 | 03:56:33 --> 03:56:47 | are. Broke. Broke as motherfuckers well done, Matt. Well done. I will be here tomorrow. It'll be more specific with candlesticks and we're gonna watch some |
| 1373 | 03:56:47 --> 03:57:00 | stuff live. But I have shared where I believe the Monday, Tuesday Wednesday, draw on dollar is I believe that all those things panning out. Uh, barring any |
| 1374 | 03:57:00 --> 03:57:12 | event that would be inspired by a Middle East type thing? I'm confident that that's okay. For my analysis, my approach the same things. But we got a couple |
| 1375 | 03:57:12 --> 03:57:21 | seconds. Let me go over five minutes. Okay, I'll go for five minutes, because I just want to take a look at the lower timeframe. One minute. Always doing more. |
| 1376 | 03:57:21 --> 03:57:39 | Yep. All right. So we had this pair mock dropped this morning. Low lower low. rallied? What is this? What's that right there? very vague that by setting down |
| 1377 | 03:57:39 --> 03:57:41 | so sine efficiency, because it's an up close candle. |
| 1378 | 03:57:49 --> 03:57:58 | Ideally, what do you want to see? You want to see a piece left open? Did it fully closing that? No. Where did it tray to the lower quadrant? You see that? |
| 1379 | 03:57:59 --> 03:58:16 | There? Whereas the bodies see that? And then once it did that was it reach for premium premium relative to what? You had this range here, and then you have the |
| 1380 | 03:58:16 --> 03:58:23 | larger range there. Not going to refer back to this here because we've already had what happened |
| 1381 | 03:58:30 --> 03:58:43 | that your range of the day that we go above equilibrium, yes, multiple times in closing basis. So you can't use that range. Now, for defining short term, short |
| 1382 | 03:58:43 --> 03:58:55 | term premium to discount. This low did not take that low out. But we had market trade higher. So we have to look at a shorter timeframe range which is inside |
| 1383 | 03:58:55 --> 03:59:08 | the larger range of the day. So from this low to the high. above this level, we have to look for inefficiencies, when we're retracing. Is there any efficiency |
| 1384 | 03:59:08 --> 03:59:20 | in here? No. And then you have that short term high and you have a thought here. Any inefficiencies over here, not on this timeframe. So that's using this range |
| 1385 | 03:59:20 --> 03:59:31 | here. If you're using an even smaller timeframe shorter term range here. This is all trading inside the range needing not to see it trade outside the range. It |
| 1386 | 03:59:31 --> 03:59:41 | rallies here, your fair value got there. See that? Were that we're gonna tell you the ideal entries are going to be at if you're trading fair value gaps or |
| 1387 | 03:59:41 --> 03:59:50 | bullshitter blocks that are that are buys or bullish. It's going to be in the upper half. So here's your favorite I got there's the height of it |
| 1388 | 03:59:58 --> 04:00:08 | just consequent encroachment. Oh I've downloaded that seems to keep happening over and over and over again. And they'll tell you that's buying pressure. It's |
| 1389 | 04:00:08 --> 04:00:21 | buying pressure. I'm feeling the pressure. So we have relative equal highs here. And then we have this wick CI, we have all already worked consequent crush on |
| 1390 | 04:00:21 --> 04:00:32 | that multiple times in here. Because it's done that. And it's rallying, I would want to see that by side above the wicks high now, and then maybe revisit this |
| 1391 | 04:00:33 --> 04:00:42 | inefficiency, because it lets a small little piece open. Right there. I'll draw that out. So rectangle. So for pm session, consideration, if we continue to |
| 1392 | 04:00:42 --> 04:00:54 | press higher, this look for that trade into that. And then we have this inefficiency over here that was left open. And we'll do this |
| 1393 | 04:00:59 --> 04:01:08 | see how we went to consequent question that inefficiency there overshot a little bit, but look at the bodies, then we had a breakdown, shift in market structure. |
| 1394 | 04:01:09 --> 04:01:12 | This model 2022. Where's the sell side there. |
| 1395 | 04:01:14 --> 04:01:16 | That's what a hit are, we're here. |
| 1396 | 04:01:20 --> 04:01:30 | Tuesday and Wednesday, we're going to do this stuff live where I'm pointing out things as we look at price as it's panning out. But I'm gonna have it on a five |
| 1397 | 04:01:30 --> 04:01:41 | minute one minute in a 30 or 30, or 15. Second chart. So you'll watch everything live. And you'll see how everything agrees and supports or negates the idea of |
| 1398 | 04:01:41 --> 04:01:50 | continuation higher or lower to a premium or discount. But I wanted to introduce just the basics. This is like a real basic. It may not feel basic for some of |
| 1399 | 04:01:50 --> 04:01:57 | you probably feel like Man, this is this is way too much. And you went over my head with a lot of things. And that's simply because you probably haven't been a |
| 1400 | 04:01:57 --> 04:02:03 | student of mine for a while. But I promise you that the folks has been with me for a while they know what my PDA arrays are they know discount the premium, you |
| 1401 | 04:02:03 --> 04:02:09 | know what an order block is? And they've struggled with when do you buy a certain order block? And how do you treat an order block? And what's the entry |
| 1402 | 04:02:09 --> 04:02:16 | price? And what's your stop loss? I get so many questions for like, where do you where do you place your stop loss that if I'm trading with a fair value gap, I'm |
| 1403 | 04:02:16 --> 04:02:26 | putting it below the candle or above the candle relative to if I'm buying or selling the candle that creates the gap, that that's what I'm doing, I get |
| 1404 | 04:02:26 --> 04:02:34 | stopped out and it trades back below or above respective to the order, I'm sorry, in the fair value gap, in deference to being a bullish or bearish pdra. |
| 1405 | 04:02:35 --> 04:02:42 | I'll treat it as it needs to move out of it and then come back and retest it. And then if it does, then I'll enter there. And I'll put the same stop loss I |
| 1406 | 04:02:42 --> 04:02:51 | use initial, it'll be many times a little bit larger in terms of risk. But I've already reduced my risk. Generally not all time. But usually, in the case of |
| 1407 | 04:02:51 --> 04:03:04 | that type of setup, I'll reduce the size or I'm average because I've incurred a loss. So I think that's gonna be it for the first one today. I covered a lot of |
| 1408 | 04:03:04 --> 04:03:20 | things that in my journals, I went back and looked at my first three years. And the things that I complained about I addressed and tackled those big sticking |
| 1409 | 04:03:20 --> 04:03:29 | points that I had initially. Now obviously, there's a whole lot more things I'm going to cover and things that I'm going to use that have been presented to me |
| 1410 | 04:03:29 --> 04:03:36 | by my own students both paid mentorship students that I don't operate a paid mentorship anymore, stop asking because obviously you see I'm doing this for |
| 1411 | 04:03:36 --> 04:03:47 | free now, I don't create content, that is video, or audio audible. For for paid students, we basically just hanging out once in a while I'll call the market |
| 1412 | 04:03:47 --> 04:03:55 | with them. But whenever I get a student that talks about their ass and say, You don't make enough content for me, then I stopped doing it for a week to let them |
| 1413 | 04:03:55 --> 04:04:09 | realize the benefit they have. I'm having contact with me still. But looking for setups like something like this one here, okay. If you were to take that long |
| 1414 | 04:04:09 --> 04:04:22 | and only use the low of that candlestick right there, okay, your entry would be 864 and a quarter to 864 and a quarter. If you were only going to use a simple |
| 1415 | 04:04:22 --> 04:04:29 | bread and butter approach to just trying to make money you're not here trying to impress everybody with the full daily range. You're not trying to be ICT junior |
| 1416 | 04:04:29 --> 04:04:38 | or 2.0 You're not trying to be you know, Omni man or fucking trading. You're literally just trying to get money and get done and move to the sidelines and go |
| 1417 | 04:04:38 --> 04:04:51 | live your life. You could use this pattern here and the range that it is retraced from that's this high right here. Be honest, okay. If you were able to |
| 1418 | 04:04:51 --> 04:05:03 | find setups like this on a daily basis, buying insider fair, I got the easiest short thing entry, which is the only one that I think you should be worrying |
| 1419 | 04:05:03 --> 04:05:13 | about right now. One tick below the low the candle that creates the the highest parameter for the fair value gap, because if this is the fair value got, let me |
| 1420 | 04:05:13 --> 04:05:27 | zoom in just to be more friendly in the eyes. Can you tell I'm doing this? If my wife was here, I wouldn't be able to do this. But we made some arrangements, the |
| 1421 | 04:05:29 --> 04:05:40 | this candle here, okay, this is the fair value gap between this candle is high, and that candles low. This frames where your stop loss is. So your stop loss has |
| 1422 | 04:05:40 --> 04:05:48 | to be at the body or the love department depends on what you're willing to assume in terms of risk. If you want to be really aggressive about risk, you |
| 1423 | 04:05:48 --> 04:05:57 | don't need to trade with larger leverage, then you're going to obviously go with the body, if you're more risk averse, and you're not going to trade with large |
| 1424 | 04:05:57 --> 04:06:05 | leverage and you're learning still. And you want to give yourself some flexibility to stay in the trade not potentially stopped out, you're going to |
| 1425 | 04:06:05 --> 04:06:12 | use the low that candlestick, and you're out or something, I've done the math on the same way, this is a little bit too much of a stop loss for me, because I |
| 1426 | 04:06:12 --> 04:06:20 | usually trade with three quarters of a point of a stop loss. And I'm trading with 15 contracts in a funded account, which isn't a real account, because it's |
| 1427 | 04:06:20 --> 04:06:27 | not really going to the market. So therefore they're not going to tag your liquidity. And you think you're a rockstar that doesn't hold water. Okay? You |
| 1428 | 04:06:27 --> 04:06:35 | need to manage the risk appropriately and not try to squeeze every possible outcome. That's the best case scenario for you. You need to be looking at how |
| 1429 | 04:06:35 --> 04:06:46 | how can this hurt me? Every trade should be how can I make money, but reduce it to the minimum amount of money that I could go to sleep knowing that I lost it? |
| 1430 | 04:06:46 --> 04:06:58 | And nothing's going to change the way I trade? To me, that's the definitive answer that I had to assume for myself. Not what could I afford? Because what |
| 1431 | 04:06:58 --> 04:07:07 | you think you can afford before the trade on ain't really what you can afford when you take that loss. Because any loss sucks, especially for a man, any loss |
| 1432 | 04:07:07 --> 04:07:22 | sucks. A break even stop out fucking sucks. It sucks. We hate it, especially if it starts to run off. But mature, personally responsible traders have to do |
| 1433 | 04:07:22 --> 04:07:34 | their due diligence and determine how much can I lose today. And if I lose that, I'm not going to feel any apprehension at all doing the same model, same trade |
| 1434 | 04:07:34 --> 04:07:43 | the next time it forms. And be honest, how many times have you done that? Probably never. And until started hold my feet to the flame with that |
| 1435 | 04:07:43 --> 04:07:51 | perspective. I couldn't stay in a trade or take the next trade, I would always get scared to take the next one. I'm 20 years old, no one's coaching me like I'm |
| 1436 | 04:07:51 --> 04:08:02 | coaching you. Nobody encouraged me and gave you these rants and stuff. It's just I had to go through it. And there was I quit dozens of times. But quitting if |
| 1437 | 04:08:02 --> 04:08:09 | you're a trader is just meaning you're taking a break or you're trying to save up money, put more money in an account. That's really what it means. But if you |
| 1438 | 04:08:09 --> 04:08:15 | can't stay away from this stuff, you are a traitor. So you might as well just start learning how to do it right. But the entry would be one tick below that |
| 1439 | 04:08:15 --> 04:08:25 | that's the easiest no brainer is how you do it. The stop loss is below. Or if you're using larger leverage and your convictions are strong, you can use the |
| 1440 | 04:08:25 --> 04:08:32 | body's low. In this case, it'd be opening price. So the difference is whatever that is, how many contracts can you trade, I don't know what you're trading with |
| 1441 | 04:08:32 --> 04:08:43 | in terms of equity. But you should be trading the least leverage that you can possibly do as a micro? Micro, okay. You're not risking a whole lot of anything, |
| 1442 | 04:08:44 --> 04:08:57 | but you're learning. And then you just target the buy side here. So if you're trading 864, we'll just say you got filled 864 Even, okay, 864, even in you're |
| 1443 | 04:08:57 --> 04:09:13 | getting out at 885 and a half, one tick above the high. Like, are you capable of finding 20 handles every single day right now? Probably not. But these types of |
| 1444 | 04:09:13 --> 04:09:22 | formations happen every single day. This is a one minute chart. What happens if you take that and you get out. And you're you took that 20 handles and you're |
| 1445 | 04:09:22 --> 04:09:31 | done. Then you come back into later today, but it went up 500 hands? They're gonna kick the dog. You're gonna take it out on your spouse, don't talk to me, |
| 1446 | 04:09:31 --> 04:09:37 | man. I had a trade I could have made. I could have paid off this part from my car. I could have done this. I could have done that. If you do that you're |
| 1447 | 04:09:37 --> 04:09:47 | living in the rearview mirror. And it's always easy to find regret. It's always easy to beat yourself up about that and that's not building you up. It's tearing |
| 1448 | 04:09:47 --> 04:09:58 | yourself down. You made 20 Fucking handles. That's more than retail Rick with harmonic horseshit. You made money you banked it, you treated it like a |
| 1449 | 04:09:58 --> 04:10:05 | business. Every business that I price isn't trying to get every potential fucking sale. They know it's not realistic. They do what they can within their |
| 1450 | 04:10:05 --> 04:10:13 | means to try to get the people to spend the money, but they're not going to break their business trying to do it. And traders many times do that very thing. |
| 1451 | 04:10:13 --> 04:10:21 | They they, they do more that's necessary and aren't profitable as a result. And they keep doing that same thing thinking that the man is going to crack, and |
| 1452 | 04:10:21 --> 04:10:30 | they'll be wildly profitable, when they could just do exactly what I've preached, find out low hanging fruit objective. You're not trying to try to hold |
| 1453 | 04:10:30 --> 04:10:36 | daily range, you're not trying to pick the low of the day, you're not trying to pick the high that day not trying to get 100 handles every trade. He's looking |
| 1454 | 04:10:36 --> 04:10:45 | for something that's going to be easy. Go in, get it, be content with that, be happy with it. Fuck off. If your opinion about that, is that you should have did |
| 1455 | 04:10:45 --> 04:10:55 | more. Who cares? They shouldn't know what you made on your trades. Nobody should know that. Nobody should know that. That's your personal business. Why the hell |
| 1456 | 04:10:55 --> 04:11:01 | are you letting somebody else run your business? Then you wonder why you're shitting working right? Because you're letting everybody else come in and run it |
| 1457 | 04:11:01 --> 04:11:02 | the way they want it ran. |
| 1458 | 04:11:09 --> 04:11:19 | I think that'll be it for today. I'm hungry. I'm fasted, my stomach's talking to me, I need to eat something and parched. So I didn't really want to sit here |
| 1459 | 04:11:19 --> 04:11:30 | into that yellow boxes here. But to be honest. If I was at the exchange, I would sink it though, and say fuck ICT, I'm gonna drop this bitch at hammers, talk to |
| 1460 | 04:11:30 --> 04:11:31 | you and your livestream. |
| 1461 | 04:11:36 --> 04:11:52 | Tomorrow. But tomorrow, we've done all the preamble talk, okay, we're gonna go right into the charts. And we're gonna focus primarily on es, and s&p. After the |
| 1462 | 04:11:52 --> 04:12:04 | 930, I'm going to look at forex pairs Eurodollar and cable tomorrow, from eight o'clock to 915. So eight o'clock to 915 Our focus will be on forex. And then at |
| 1463 | 04:12:04 --> 04:12:17 | 930, we'll transition into focusing on the futures markets until around noon time, and then we'll break again. But obviously, you know, there's a lot of |
| 1464 | 04:12:17 --> 04:12:23 | things I'll still want to cover, and we have it and I'm on schedule, they may not feel like I probably stuck to a schedule, but I completed everything I |
| 1465 | 04:12:23 --> 04:12:35 | wanted to cover today. That's why I started cutting up a little bit, I did a fair enough job to beat my outline. So in that regard, I'm okay. But tomorrow, |
| 1466 | 04:12:35 --> 04:12:42 | we won't have a whole lot of like explaining this explaining that without looking at charts, everything is going to be overpriced action from now on. So |
| 1467 | 04:12:42 --> 04:12:50 | tomorrow and Wednesday, we'll be literally immersion in price action live, explaining what it should do, what it shouldn't do, why it's useful, what would |
| 1468 | 04:12:50 --> 04:13:00 | be problematic if it does one thing or another. All those things are are actionable things to things that can be used in the future. That way you can |
| 1469 | 04:13:00 --> 04:13:10 | learn from it. Repeat it, apply it to what it is you're studying. So the boss Mr. is telling over here that wick and how we already went to consequent |
| 1470 | 04:13:10 --> 04:13:18 | coaching. Oh, that wick multiple times. That means we have to cancel that as a draw. It can't act as a draw anymore. It's not something we would favor. It's |
| 1471 | 04:13:18 --> 04:13:29 | the high of that candle. That would be the one that would be the buyside that would be the draw. Use the DVR setting I have on my I don't I don't have it |
| 1472 | 04:13:29 --> 04:13:36 | turned off so that we can rewind it and take a sound clip out of it and put it on YouTube and say no, you didn't say that. I'm saying everything in front of |
| 1473 | 04:13:36 --> 04:13:46 | you worried about what the outcomes gonna be. So you can see how we ran up in the air and engaged that liquidity. So if it's going to move above that, how far |
| 1474 | 04:13:46 --> 04:13:55 | can it go? That's a question I get all the time. If you're looking for a high to be traded to how far can it go? How can you trust when I do turtle suits when I |
| 1475 | 04:13:55 --> 04:14:06 | try to sell old highs being broke and pierced and I sell short as it's running through them. There are going to be instances where like it's an obvious pdra |
| 1476 | 04:14:06 --> 04:14:18 | above a buy side that I trust is the final definitive target that they're aiming for. For repricing it to a deep, deep, deep premium before sinking into a |
| 1477 | 04:14:18 --> 04:14:27 | discount. In that case, that or in this case here, the buy side or anything above that wick just above it, how far can it go? Well, then you have this |
| 1478 | 04:14:27 --> 04:14:34 | inefficiency. We've already traded to it. But see the difference between the high book at the high rate there that's this price over here. The higher that |
| 1479 | 04:14:34 --> 04:14:47 | candlestick is 17,009 08 50. And in the low of that candle over here is one tick. That's enough for the market that want to reprice up there because it's a |
| 1480 | 04:14:47 --> 04:14:58 | separation. It's a separation between this candles low in this candles high. So it's a sippy they're so sad and balanced by some inefficiency. So how far can I |
| 1481 | 04:14:58 --> 04:15:07 | in what I measure if it's going to go go above it on high, it's this entire range. It doesn't need to do that. But that's what you aim for. And you treat it |
| 1482 | 04:15:07 --> 04:15:17 | accordingly. So if you were long, say you took off, take till you had two contracts, and you went long down here, you take one off here, and you let it |
| 1483 | 04:15:17 --> 04:15:26 | run, the target was explained to you over here, that's the buy side, and you want to sit back and wait for it to engage that, then you have a choice, you |
| 1484 | 04:15:26 --> 04:15:37 | either take it off on a limit at that level, or hold it and manage a stop loss, to see if they can dig up into here and maybe even run off even higher. Because |
| 1485 | 04:15:37 --> 04:15:45 | that's the that's the purpose and the luxury of having a runner, you have the luxury of determining what you want to do with it. Do you want to cut it off at |
| 1486 | 04:15:45 --> 04:15:55 | a definitive level? Well, I gave you that it's right above here. If you want to let it run, if it gets to that point, how can you manage that you use it as a |
| 1487 | 04:15:55 --> 04:16:10 | trailing stop loss, trailing stop losses prior to areas where a partial would be logical. If you're trading any position with a trailing stop loss, and you're |
| 1488 | 04:16:10 --> 04:16:21 | moving it up into a range from a discount, and then you entering the realm of what will be premium. And I'll explain it to you right now. In this example, you |
| 1489 | 04:16:21 --> 04:16:31 | will have this, that high to that low is what we measured. And we will be in discount still trading to this fair value gap, which is the first one that form |
| 1490 | 04:16:31 --> 04:16:38 | because there's no Fairbury gap in any of these up close candles, the market trades down into that fair value gap. That's your first entry that you can now |
| 1491 | 04:16:38 --> 04:16:50 | target premium premium as defined by the high to low that range. So midpoint of that, let me just pop that real quick. So long, five minutes. That's how I roll |
| 1492 | 04:16:50 --> 04:17:00 | baby. That's how I roll, you always get more than you paid for. That's equilibrium. So minimum is a trade to that. But it does that and then it comes |
| 1493 | 04:17:00 --> 04:17:12 | back to that fair value. So now we're going to discount because here's equilibrium to the low discount, then it's going to do what it's going to expand |
| 1494 | 04:17:12 --> 04:17:21 | up into a premium. So what premium arrays that we have this high this high relative equal highs, that wick I talked about. And I said that high? How far |
| 1495 | 04:17:21 --> 04:17:30 | can it go above that it can go up and it is old range and bought that last up close candle. You either take it off there on a hard line limit to say, okay, |
| 1496 | 04:17:30 --> 04:17:39 | not partial, I'm sorry, my final runner, we're just gonna call it a day there and be content with it. Or how would you manage the stop loss, your stop loss |
| 1497 | 04:17:39 --> 04:17:50 | cannot enter above this region here because you're entering into a realm where it can retrace still. So your stop loss has to be, this will be a good place |
| 1498 | 04:17:50 --> 04:17:58 | here. So whatever it was here, it's trail up to there. If you look at my trades, that's how I manage them. Unless I'm real close to Terminus and I have one like |
| 1499 | 04:17:58 --> 04:18:04 | contract left, then I'll trail up to something that would be below here, because there's a fair value from your I traded to it. So I wouldn't want to see that |
| 1500 | 04:18:04 --> 04:18:14 | fair value got traded to go over or below rather, it'd be failed, okay. So it's a matter of context where you are in the trade relative to where you were |
| 1501 | 04:18:14 --> 04:18:24 | targeting. And the runner is where you want to send this, the last little piece of your profitable trade. That's the one that you have the luxury to finesse. |
| 1502 | 04:18:24 --> 04:18:33 | Whether you get stopped out on it, whether it goes to a hardline limit, or you exit out there, or you hold on to it, and you keep your stop loss at breakeven, |
| 1503 | 04:18:33 --> 04:18:43 | plus commissions and costs and just let it rip, and you'll see what happens. None of those outcomes are wrong. Because if you take it off anytime, and it |
| 1504 | 04:18:43 --> 04:18:49 | runs to our handles, and if you would have stayed in with that runner, you're going to consider that wrong, you're gonna beat yourself about it. So you got to |
| 1505 | 04:18:49 --> 04:18:57 | give yourself permission that any outcome on a runner in a profitable trade after you've banked partials, there's nothing wrong with anything you do with |
| 1506 | 04:18:57 --> 04:19:07 | it. There's nothing wrong with that. And that's managing your expectations. It's also managing your your ability to stay within the context of a bias, whether it |
| 1507 | 04:19:07 --> 04:19:09 | be the daily bias or the session bias. |
| 1508 | 04:19:18 --> 04:19:28 | Yeah, I'm going to be content with this for today. Alright, so I hope you had fun today. I hope you learned something. I covered a lot of stuff that were very |
| 1509 | 04:19:28 --> 04:19:41 | important factors for me when I was coming up as a trader 20 years old. And for me, if I would have had these things submitted to me as study points, things to |
| 1510 | 04:19:41 --> 04:19:50 | reference and consider when I'm trading and developing. I could have shaved off years and certainly probably wouldn't have blown so many accounts as a 20 year |
| 1511 | 04:19:50 --> 04:20:01 | old, I would have probably done a whole lot better sooner, because it would have given me processes, rules, what to do when not to do it. And we're only starting |
| 1512 | 04:20:01 --> 04:20:08 | like this is only the beginning. There's a whole lot of content still, that we're going to cover between now and Wednesday, but for for the first day, I |
| 1513 | 04:20:08 --> 04:20:17 | think I've covered enough. And I've given a really good foundation to everything that will be referred to in technical terms over live price action. So have |
| 1514 | 04:20:17 --> 04:20:24 | yourself a very pleasant day. Hopefully you enjoyed it. If you did, and you appreciate me spending my time with you. Give it a thumbs up, it doesn't cost |
| 1515 | 04:20:24 --> 04:20:32 | you anything. I promise it doesn't make any ad revenue. It's just some way for you to kind of like as applause okay, if you get something out of it, that's |
| 1516 | 04:20:32 --> 04:20:38 | what I'm looking for. If you don't, if you don't put a thumbs up, I won't know how to. I don't really don't care if you're gonna change where I live in gonna |
| 1517 | 04:20:38 --> 04:20:46 | change what I eat and try to asleep. But it's just a way for you to give me feedback. Okay, so that's that's your way of saying I got something out of this. |
| 1518 | 04:20:47 --> 04:20:52 | And that's how I look at it. And I'll talk with you all tomorrow eight o'clock, Lord willing until then, be safe. |