ICT YT - 2024-01-23 - ICT Tape Reading Price Action Livestream - January 23 2024
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-02-01 08:34
Outline
03:42 - Trading principles and price analysis.
- ICT is not licensed to give trade advice, but shares their opinions on market movements for educational purposes only.
- ICT uses a paper trading account for legal protection, emphasizing that nothing discussed is investment advice or to be acted upon with real money.
- ICT teaches on how to identify high probability price action setups without preconceived notions.
- ICT shares personal experience of losing 50% of money on options trading due to lack of knowledge and experience.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of focusing on what price is doing right now, rather than trying to predict the entire move or highest high of the day.
10:12 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- The speaker disagrees with Al Brooks' opinion that scalping is impossible and provides examples to prove the opposite.
- The speaker encourages listeners to trade with lower timeframes in a simulated account to gain experience and improve their ability to read price action.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of focusing on one market for early success in trading.
- ICT explains how to analyze bar charts and candlestick charts to predict price movements in the market.
- ICT demonstrates how to identify support and resistance levels by annotating the charts live.
17:07 - Trading strategies and timeframes.
- ICT argues that scalping can be profitable, but traders must resist the urge to overtrade and focus on higher timeframes to make informed decisions.
- ICT shares personal experience of getting married to a specific timeframe, leading to poor trading decisions, and emphasizes the importance of multiple timeframes for informed trading.
- ICT believes the market is in an expanding unknown range and will likely keep going higher.
- ICT prioritizes being a buyer, but also acknowledges the need to be responsive to price action.
- ICT advises against trying to pick the top in a market like this, instead focusing on being a buyer and limiting short-term trading.
23:17 - Market analysis and trading strategies.
- Ict says retail traders selling short or trying to pick top in NY kill zone may be suckers.
- ICT is confident in their trading strategy and plans to teach it to the audience in real-time.
- ICT sets a minimum of 10 handles for trading and scalping the NASDAQ, and will not take trades if that threshold is not met.
- ICT explains how a down close candle in a predisposed market can lead to a run upwards.
- Trader refers to 15-minute timeframe as "Bellwether" for liquidity and imbalances.
31:32 - Technical analysis and market rigging.
- ICT explains that between 2-5 am London time, the market drops due to swing trading, with buyers and sellers pushing prices higher or lower based on liquidity.
- ICT highlights the importance of identifying the London Open kill zone, where traders take out stops, creating highs or lows of the day, and using this information to inform trading decisions.
- Trader identifies imbalance and gap in chart data, predicting potential buy or sell opportunity.
- ICT measures the willingness to see price by analyzing the drop as a rock climb, looking for visuals or memories of reaching the top.
- ICT anticipates price to move one-sidedly due to imbalance on the buy side, with sell-side delivery expected when price drops.
39:23 - Trading with bias and identifying fair value gaps.
- ICT is bullish on the market in the long term, but cautious in the short term due to a potential stop run.
- ICT uses the "bodies" in the chart to determine when to trust a fair value gap, by considering the market's bias and the present narrative.
- ICT teaches a 3-hour live stream on trading using his concepts, promising to provide everything needed to start making money.
- ICT identifies a swing low in the overnight session, indicating a high probability reversal in the day's trading.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of setting charts to New York time for proper learning and algorithmic trading.
45:17 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT explains the concept of swing lows and highs in price action, highlighting the importance of three consecutive candles with a lower high or lower low to indicate a turning point.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of waiting for displacement before entering a trade, rather than trying to catch every move in real-time.
- Analyst identifies potential trading opportunity using gap analysis.
50:20 - Day trading concepts and chart analysis.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of time-based charts and recognizes the low of the day as a crucial turning point.
- ICT encourages listeners to start practicing tape reading with a demo or paper trading account before risking real money.
- ICT explains that Smart Money traders use the tipping of the hand by the algorithm to enter long positions, taking advantage of the efficient price action between highs.
- ICT highlights the importance of analyzing the bodies of the candles, as they provide valuable information on the market's movement and potential for further gains.
56:21 - Technical analysis and risk management in trading.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of identifying highs in a 50-minute timeframe chart and scaling in accordingly.
- ICT explains how to secure the largest position by entering at the upper quadrant of a gap, with a focus on the 25% and 75% levels.
- ICT grades trades in quarters and manages risk by placing stops based on account balance and market structure.
- ICT balances risk and potential reward by entering trades in increments, starting with smaller contracts and adding more as price moves in favor.
- ICT annotates a 5-minute chart, highlighting 4 order blocks and a bullish narrative (12345 points).
- The market trades back down into the upper quadrant, with a low of 17,004.50, only a quarter point drawdown.
01:03:16 - Technical analysis and market manipulation.
- ICT anticipates market rally due to smart money buying sell stops.
- Trader highlights potential trading opportunities using live price action examples.
- Trader uses rock climbing analogy to identify potential support levels in the market.
01:09:43 - Futures trading strategies and risk management.
- ICT explains that every trade opens as a losing trade and must be managed, overcoming initial separation and commission costs.
- ICT highlights the importance of understanding inversion fair value and signature areas on the chart, as these can indicate potential stop loss locations.
- Trader emphasizes importance of stop-loss orders in futures trading.
- ICT identifies potential short-term trade opportunity in a downward-trending market, targeting 10 handle price run.
- ICT scalps 10 points by buying at inversion fair value gap, with small stop and take profit before reaching target.
01:17:15 - Using tape reading to predict market movements.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding price action and macros in the market, specifically during the last hour of US trading.
- ICT highlights the importance of understanding market behavior and liquidity in trading, emphasizing that retail traders should not rely solely on algorithmic approaches.
- Trader identifies specific algorithmic advantage for bullish price action.
01:23:22 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- ICT identifies a major breaker by looking for a low, high, and lower low on the chart, which can help traders identify potential support and resistance levels.
- ICT prioritizes measuring the distance between the high and low of a breaker to determine the potential profit target, and avoids getting stopped out prematurely by keeping the stock's price trailed up.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of immediate rebalances in trading, using examples to demonstrate their effectiveness.
- ICT believes that consistent base hits, combined with proper money management, can lead to greater profits than attempting to make larger trades.
01:30:24 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT analyzes the opening range settlement price and anticipates where it will open based on the previous day's settlement price.
- ICT looks for a willingness to close the gap between the opening range and the previous day's settlement price, as a sign of strength and bullishness.
- Trader observes price movements, anticipates resistance levels, and monitors for potential setups.
- Trader identifies key imbalance area for potential price run.
01:37:33 - Trading inversion fair value gaps in live market analysis.
- ICT identifies an inversion in Vega's 15-minute time frame, extending it over the gap and treating it as support.
- ICT annotates his trade executions to demonstrate how he identifies and trades inversion fair value gaps.
- ICT explains how he uses these gaps to anticipate potential price action after the 10 o'clock news, with a focus on the midpoint and expansion.
01:42:08 - Trading volume imbalances and price action.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of volume imbalances in price action.
- ICT identifies a key level of support and resistance in a consolidation phase.
01:45:33 - Trading strategies and experience.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of experience in trading, stating that it cannot be taught or transferred.
- ICT advises against trying to avoid watching price action between trades, as it is a crucial part of the trading process.
- Trader is looking for a potential trading opportunity in the 950-1010 price range.
- Trader wants to see price reach a specific inefficiency or failure by 1050-1110.
- Trader is monitoring the old inversion fair value gap and expects price to trade into it.
01:52:33 - Analyzing audio transcripts for insights.
- ICT analyzes price action based on inefficiencies in liquidity, not classic support/resistance or harmonic patterns.
- In the current situation, price is struggling to break through a volume of balance inefficiency, with potential for expansion and digestion.
- ICT uses price rungs as a metaphor for mountain climbing, basing his analysis on inefficiencies in price action rather than Support Resistance levels.
- ICT highlights a specific PD array that did not trade as expected, indicating exceedingly bullish sentiment in the market.
01:58:46 - Trading after reaching all-time highs with uncertain price action.
- Trader warns of difficult trading conditions due to high liquidity takedown.
- ICT observes choppy, uncertain price action and notes the potential for a breakout or reversal.
- ICT intends to wait for a clear signal before entering a trade, rather than simply pushing a button.
02:04:30 - Market sentiment and potential trading opportunities.
- ICT predicts potential move lower than previous low, with high probability of liquidity imbalance.
- ICT watches candle behavior, seeking long position but remains cautious due to market sentiment.
02:08:00 - Trading in a range with high volatility.
- ICT expresses frustration with missed trading opportunities and lack of experience.
- ICT warns against trading in the middle of a range, as it is difficult and can lead to frustration and losses.
02:12:06 - Trading in a range-bound market.
- Trader assesses risk and sets stop loss below fair value gap.
- ICT explains the difficulty of trading in the middle of a range and warns against attempting to do so.
- ICT took a loss in a market environment that has been explained to be difficult, highlighting the importance of careful decision-making in such conditions.
02:20:07 - Potential price movements in a stock.
- ICT wants to see the conversation stay open to avoid immediate rebounds and potential breakaway gaps.
- ICT eyes 60-minute chart resistance, weighs potential drawbacks.
02:27:48 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- Trader discusses trading strategies and analyzes market imbalances.
02:35:42 - Trading strategies and potential market movements.
- Trader discusses potential entry points for buying or selling in a range, with a focus on using a specific area for a last attempt.
02:39:01 - Stock market inversion and potential trade opportunities.
- ICT expects a potential stock drop to be limited by a fair value gap, with a last attempt to trade today if it doesn't reach the limit order.
02:42:47 - Trading psychology and risk management.
- ICT emphasizes the difficulty of trading in a range-bound market, where price runs are short-lived and quickly return to the middle range.
- ICT advises against pushing too hard or trying to revenge trade in such an environment, as it can lead to mental capital loss and frustration.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of managing mental capital and avoiding losing trades to prevent psychological scar tissue from building up.
- ICT believes that every new candle creates momentum higher or lower, but the market is being held and not moving anywhere, causing traders to limit their mental capital.
- ICT: Learn to wait for the right setup, limit trades, and avoid forcing them.
02:49:39 - Trading in a difficult market environment.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of submitting to market conditions and not forcing opinions on it.
- ICT adjusts trading plans based on market environment, prioritizing risk management and waiting for better opportunities.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of managing risk and taking losing trades, even for experienced traders.
- ICT highlights the challenges of trading during a difficult market, where small losses can feel like a "paper cut" but are still a measure of risk that's out of normal.
02:55:51 - Trading in a difficult market with limited movement.
- ICT explains that the current market is difficult to trade due to consolidation, with setups that don't have a high degree of probability.
- ICT highlights the natural impulse to think the move will happen after turning off charts, but emphasizes that this is a losing trade with no risk.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of responsible trading, avoiding impulsive decisions, and recognizing when to step away from the markets.
- ICT plans to return live tomorrow morning, possibly as early as 9:30 AM.
03:02:15 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT explains that the local time in New York City is the same time as the time on his clock at home, wherever he is in the world.
- ICT believes he covered a lot of content and coursework in the first half of the lecture, but may not have explained certain topics to everyone's satisfaction due to the complexity of the subject matter.
- Trader experiences three stop outs, but still profits $885.55 with four trades.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:02:36 --> 00:02:38 | ICT: Well good morning folks how are you |
| 2 | 00:02:43 --> 00:02:47 | Scott test myself here and wait for my feedback here |
| 3 | 00:02:52 --> 00:02:53 | also get a |
| 4 | 00:03:03 --> 00:03:17 | Okay, so it's about seven or eight seconds delay just give me a few seconds, work out my, my settings here |
| 5 | 00:03:22 --> 00:03:26 | The audio should be loud enough, should be coming through, it's coming through my headphones pretty good. So |
| 6 | 00:03:37 --> 00:03:46 | all right for everyone that has real time, you should have read real time. If you're if you're watching this that way, you will know that what I'm about to |
| 7 | 00:03:46 --> 00:03:58 | show you is all real time. It's not delete data or anything like that. And thank you all for showing up. So I want to have a little discussion with you today. |
| 8 | 00:03:59 --> 00:04:11 | And there'll be buttons pushed in front of you in case you guys want to know that but the the important thing first is that as you can see here in the lower |
| 9 | 00:04:11 --> 00:04:21 | left hand corner that says paper trading. Okay, let me clear the air real quick. I am not licensed to give trade advice. Okay, so what I'm going to be discussing |
| 10 | 00:04:21 --> 00:04:34 | today is my opinion, it is my belief. Why price does what it does, okay? And because I'm talking over a medium that can be used for gambling, it can be used |
| 11 | 00:04:34 --> 00:04:47 | for risk taking, and money can be made and lost based on the actions whether directly or indirectly based on my opinions. I'm reminding you that what you see |
| 12 | 00:04:47 --> 00:04:54 | me do today and what you see me talk about is being done in a paper trading account for my legal protection because I'm not licensed to get trade advice. |
| 13 | 00:04:55 --> 00:05:03 | None of the things I'm just gonna discuss today are going to be considered a investment idea for you to go out and risk real money. Okay, so that we |
| 14 | 00:05:03 --> 00:05:11 | understand each other in the United States, they take it very, very serious. I'm not trying to entice you to buy or sell any instrument, any investment idea, |
| 15 | 00:05:11 --> 00:05:30 | nothing, not crypto, not futures, not commodities, not Forex. Okay. So today, I kind of want to open up with a casual suggestion. So say you and I never met |
| 16 | 00:05:30 --> 00:05:39 | before, okay, and say we were in a coffee shop. And you happen to see me with a laptop, and I'm sitting there looking at charts like this, and you've never, |
| 17 | 00:05:39 --> 00:05:48 | never seen it before. And you watch me, and you're intrigued enough to come over and ask me, what is it that you're doing? What is it you're looking at? Now, |
| 18 | 00:05:48 --> 00:05:56 | being who I am, by nature, I'm always interested in sharing and trying to get people to look at things like this, because it's been my entire life. But |
| 19 | 00:05:56 --> 00:06:10 | invariably, the same questions that I've always been encountered with is, what is it you're doing? How do you know that it's going to do a move higher or |
| 20 | 00:06:10 --> 00:06:20 | lower? How do I trust things? How do I know when to buy or sell? You all those types of things would come up all the time, every single conversation? And if |
| 21 | 00:06:20 --> 00:06:32 | you saw all the comments that come to me in my YouTube channel, yes, I see all of your comments. But there's a setting on YouTube that allows me to keep them |
| 22 | 00:06:33 --> 00:06:42 | approval only. In other words, I can review all comments, because there's a lot of crypto people trying to get people buying sell crypto, there are websites |
| 23 | 00:06:42 --> 00:06:52 | being offered that are not something I would support. So to keep from babysitting all that stuff, I just set it as review. And I don't ever really |
| 24 | 00:06:52 --> 00:07:05 | approve any message, but 99% of them more. They're all very appreciative. But the questions that come up a lot are, how do I know? How do I know where to |
| 25 | 00:07:05 --> 00:07:13 | place my stop loss? And how do I know where to buy? How do I know that that fair value gap is going to be the one that is going to support price? How do I know |
| 26 | 00:07:13 --> 00:07:22 | that that high is going to be ringing out? How do I know that it's not going to just run that high and keep on going. So I kind of like want to teach a little |
| 27 | 00:07:22 --> 00:07:30 | bit today. And I want to be relaxed about it. So I want you to just sit, sit back and just relax. Try not to have all of these preconceived notions, even if |
| 28 | 00:07:30 --> 00:07:41 | you don't really like me, I promise what I'm going to show you today is going to help you if you allow it to. Okay. So when we're looking at price, if you don't |
| 29 | 00:07:41 --> 00:07:47 | know what you're looking for, if you don't have a model, if you don't have a understanding about what it is that you're seeking, in terms of price action, |
| 30 | 00:07:48 --> 00:07:57 | what constitutes a high probability setup? Because everybody really, if we're going to be honest with one another, you really want to only pick the winning |
| 31 | 00:07:57 --> 00:08:06 | traits. Okay, that's really what you're asking for. And these are the same questions that I wanted answers to when I first started, especially when I |
| 32 | 00:08:06 --> 00:08:14 | started prematurely. In 1992, I put money into an account before I was ready to start trading. And I lost 50% of it on my very first trade and I was trading |
| 33 | 00:08:14 --> 00:08:24 | options. And I had no idea what I was doing. So that was a baptism for me. And it left a very deep scar. So I had a great deal of respect for the measure of |
| 34 | 00:08:24 --> 00:08:35 | risk, but also realize that someone on the other side of that made money. So it was my pursuit to try to figure out how I could get as close as I could to |
| 35 | 00:08:35 --> 00:08:47 | perfection. Now, admittedly, perfection and trading is not obtainable. Okay? And you have seen me do things with trades, with accounts, all these things, and |
| 36 | 00:08:47 --> 00:08:55 | I've called things on Twitter live minute by minute, you're gonna get a taste of that here visually. Okay, so we're gonna be here for about three hours together. |
| 37 | 00:08:56 --> 00:09:06 | And I want you to think about all the questions that you have bumbled up that has caused you anxiety, and or has caused you to go out and start buying funded |
| 38 | 00:09:06 --> 00:09:14 | account challenges. Or maybe you went out and put your real money into an account prematurely, like I did in 1992. Thinking that I would just get lucky |
| 39 | 00:09:14 --> 00:09:23 | and that luck, that payout, that profit would inspire me to keep doing it and be more diligent about learning. And that's the worst thing you can do in trading. |
| 40 | 00:09:24 --> 00:09:35 | So I want to kind of like attack certain generic principles that I think that if you start like this, and you strip away all of these expectations, you're |
| 41 | 00:09:35 --> 00:09:43 | placing yourself that are too lofty right now, especially if you're brand new, or if you've never been consistent with trading. This is how you dismiss all |
| 42 | 00:09:43 --> 00:09:54 | those things that are pushing you by fear and greed and anxiety inducing. You strip it down to what is price doing right now. Okay, you're not you're not |
| 43 | 00:09:54 --> 00:10:03 | trying to determine the highest high of the day. You're not trying to turn the lowest low of the day. You Not trying to find the entirety of the move for that |
| 44 | 00:10:03 --> 00:10:14 | particular day or that trading session, strip it down to what is price doing right now, it matters not how many points, handles pips. Nothing, I'm only going |
| 45 | 00:10:14 --> 00:10:28 | to be talking about the NASDAQ today. But everything I'm going to discuss is pertinent to what I believe about a forex pair, a commodity, a stock, a bond, |
| 46 | 00:10:29 --> 00:10:37 | and I don't trade crypto, I'm not trying to go so far to say that here, I'm going to cosign and say it's going to work there. But I have students that use |
| 47 | 00:10:37 --> 00:10:46 | my concepts, and they subscribe to the idea that it works for them. Okay, so I can only tell you that, but I don't have anything in terms of personal |
| 48 | 00:10:46 --> 00:10:59 | experience with trading crypto at all. Okay. So I want to kind of like build the the foundation on what it is that you should be looking for, if you're trying to |
| 49 | 00:10:59 --> 00:11:07 | learn how to read price action, you see the examples I show when I'm executing, and I share the visibility. And I was listening to a video that was sent to me |
| 50 | 00:11:09 --> 00:11:17 | by Al Brooks. Okay, so a lot of people saying that I learned from Al Brooks or I'd trade like Al Brooks, I would love to see al Brooks trade, I would love to |
| 51 | 00:11:17 --> 00:11:28 | see him do executions. And I don't mean to be disrespectful. But the idea of reading price one candlestick at a time. I didn't get that idea from Al Brooks. |
| 52 | 00:11:28 --> 00:11:41 | In fact, I've really never looked at Al Brooks until I had a conversation with Tom who got he mentioned that he was a great influence on him. And in |
| 53 | 00:11:41 --> 00:11:52 | conversations I've had with Tom. I was like, no, let me see. Because I've had people saying that I learned or I trade like this guy out rocks. And his video |
| 54 | 00:11:52 --> 00:12:01 | one of the video portions I saw, he said that it's impossible for anyone to make money or make a living off of scalping. And I'm going to dismiss that today. |
| 55 | 00:12:01 --> 00:12:12 | Okay, I'm literally going to smash that on the rocks. And let you know that that is a lie, you can absolutely make a living out of scalping. Okay. I think that |
| 56 | 00:12:12 --> 00:12:26 | even if you are not inclined to be a day trader, I think that you should trade with lower timeframes in a simulated account like this. Because it'll give you a |
| 57 | 00:12:26 --> 00:12:35 | great deal of experience. It will teach you how to read and anticipate price action. And let me go back for a second because I want to make sure that nobody |
| 58 | 00:12:35 --> 00:12:45 | takes that sound clip and take it out of context. I have nothing against Al Brooks. As far as I know. He's never said anything about ma'am. I'm not even |
| 59 | 00:12:45 --> 00:12:56 | sure if he even knows who I am. But I'm only attacking the opinion that he shared, okay? Because if I subscribe to views by other people in the community, |
| 60 | 00:12:58 --> 00:13:08 | before I learned how to trade, I would allow them to influence me negatively. So I'm trying to dismiss everything that would be a hindrance for you. And there's |
| 61 | 00:13:08 --> 00:13:17 | a lot of people out there will say the same thing about me. But I want you to think about what I'm going to show you today. So the beginning point is this, |
| 62 | 00:13:17 --> 00:13:19 | what are you intending to trade right now? |
| 63 | 00:13:20 --> 00:13:31 | You got you have to determine whatever that is, it needs to be one thing, not five things, not two things not three, not the entire board or the FX pairs. Not |
| 64 | 00:13:31 --> 00:13:44 | every index, not Dow NASDAQ not s&p, all of them together. Okay, it's one. Because if you can focus on one market, in the beginning for months, then some |
| 65 | 00:13:44 --> 00:13:51 | of you want this fast track learning, get me into making money because I want to go through it and get a funded account pass and start getting withdrawals. I |
| 66 | 00:13:51 --> 00:14:01 | promise you, if you try that, you're going to you're gonna fail in that early stage of hindrance or holding you back. That's going to be detrimental to you |
| 67 | 00:14:01 --> 00:14:10 | wanting to continue and it's going to be easy for you to reach for that as an excuse to quit and why bother? Okay, so I'm only putting this small piece of |
| 68 | 00:14:10 --> 00:14:18 | preamble in the beginning because I want the setting in the mindset going into the art discussion and where I'm actually going to be pushing buttons in front |
| 69 | 00:14:18 --> 00:14:25 | of you today. So you're gonna hear all these people that you'll never see you're seeing everything today, everything. But I want to remind you where I have my |
| 70 | 00:14:25 --> 00:14:36 | cursor, it's on a paper trading account, because I don't want to be acting as a influencer, that is going to cause you to buy or sell. Please do not copy |
| 71 | 00:14:36 --> 00:14:45 | anything I'm going to do today. I promise you, you will regret it. You will regret it. Whether it works in your favor or not. You will regret it because |
| 72 | 00:14:45 --> 00:14:54 | it's going to input into you a tethering that I try not to have with my students. All my students that are profitable, they make their trades on their |
| 73 | 00:14:54 --> 00:15:01 | own. I never tell them what's going to happen. And I will trade most of the markets they trade in and they have proven They make money with these concepts. |
| 74 | 00:15:01 --> 00:15:10 | But I'm targeting the individuals that want to improve their tape reading. And you don't need a ladder, a depth of market, you don't need book map, you don't |
| 75 | 00:15:10 --> 00:15:17 | need any of those things, okay. But if you want to work with those in concert with what I'm going to show you today, you're going to see that we see liquidity |
| 76 | 00:15:17 --> 00:15:25 | before those things even draw any attention to it. I promise you, you don't need any of those gimmicks, nothing, you have nothing that you need, except for these |
| 77 | 00:15:25 --> 00:15:36 | bar charts, or candlestick charts that are in front of us. That's it, and o'clock. That's all you need. Alright, so now, back to the setting. I'm in a |
| 78 | 00:15:36 --> 00:15:47 | coffee shop, you come up to me? What are you doing guy? I'm looking at the NASDAQ. And I'm looking for an opportunity to buy or sell to make money. And the |
| 79 | 00:15:47 --> 00:15:54 | person would obviously ask questions like this. Well, you know, how do you how do you make money doing that? Skipping all over? Those questions are going right |
| 80 | 00:15:54 --> 00:16:01 | to the point? How do I know when it's going to move up or down? Because when you first look at these charts, and you probably know what it was when you first |
| 81 | 00:16:01 --> 00:16:12 | looked at them, it's like, what do you do with this? Like, how am I supposed to determine what it's supposed to do? I'm going to show you what it is that I'm |
| 82 | 00:16:12 --> 00:16:21 | going to teach today. I'm going to recap what I did, then, and then we're going to watch the market live every single candlestick, and I'm going to annotate |
| 83 | 00:16:21 --> 00:16:28 | audibly, I'm going to draw attention to things that I believe are going to be influential for price action. And we're going to watch and see if price does in |
| 84 | 00:16:28 --> 00:16:38 | fact, find some support behind those ideas. And does it run to the areas that my interest is lying in. Okay? Because this is the beginning point for you to learn |
| 85 | 00:16:38 --> 00:16:45 | how to trade, you cannot learn how to trade from my books that are going to come out, you're not going to learn how to trade from my videos, you're not going to |
| 86 | 00:16:45 --> 00:16:54 | learn from anybody else, you're going to learn by you doing the things that are suggested by people that know what they're doing. So I want to take you back to |
| 87 | 00:16:55 --> 00:17:04 | this little area right here. And I really wish there was a way for me to highlight my, my cursor. So I'm going to move very, very slowly so that way you |
| 88 | 00:17:04 --> 00:17:18 | can track it. The largest chart we're looking at here is a one minute chart. Okay, and the lower left hand chart here is a five minute chart. In the upper |
| 89 | 00:17:18 --> 00:17:27 | left hand corner is a 15 minute time frame. When you're trading, it's important for you to have not just one single timeframe, you're going to execute on one |
| 90 | 00:17:27 --> 00:17:35 | timeframe, you're going to have all of your analysis built on a higher timeframe chart. That would be in this case, if we're going to be scalping because I'm |
| 91 | 00:17:35 --> 00:17:43 | attacking the idea that you can't make money scalping, you absolutely can Visser rate, the majority of what everybody else thinks is a good return, you can |
| 92 | 00:17:43 --> 00:17:50 | literally do that every single day scalping you can do every single day, there isn't a day that you cannot go into the marketplace and not make money trading |
| 93 | 00:17:50 --> 00:18:01 | as a scalper, you absolutely can do that. The problem is, you're going to go in and try to do it more time than is necessary for you. If you go in and you made |
| 94 | 00:18:01 --> 00:18:10 | $2,000 You're gonna feel really good about that. And it's going to feel like wow, I want to spin the wheel again, I want to throw the dice once more, and get |
| 95 | 00:18:10 --> 00:18:20 | that feeling again. And that's what you have to fight as a trader, you have to fight that urge to do that. And as a scalper, you can go on here and go insane, |
| 96 | 00:18:20 --> 00:18:29 | make lots of money, have a long series of winning trades, and then do something stupid regret doing that, try to get it back. And it turns into blowing your |
| 97 | 00:18:29 --> 00:18:37 | account going into severe drawdown. You've seen youtubers do this. You've seen an influencers come out and be honest and say this is what they're plagued with. |
| 98 | 00:18:37 --> 00:18:46 | And I'm trying to help you if you listen. But you have to have multiple timeframes that you're going to be referring to, I'm going to drop down below a |
| 99 | 00:18:46 --> 00:18:59 | one minute chart to show you the significance of what price is doing on these lower lower timeframes sub one minute, every single hour, there's an opportunity |
| 100 | 00:18:59 --> 00:19:10 | for you to scalp every single 15 minute interval, there's an opportunity for you to scalp. Now. The problem is and I found this out to be true for myself when I |
| 101 | 00:19:10 --> 00:19:21 | first tried to do scalping in the bond market in the 90s. I could see these moves on the various timeframes. And then I would get married to the idea it was |
| 102 | 00:19:21 --> 00:19:30 | going to give me more than what I subscribed to or or framed for my trade. And what I mean by that. Let's assume for a moment that we were looking at these |
| 103 | 00:19:30 --> 00:19:44 | lows down here on a one minute chart. Okay, and let's assume that we were considering how the market is recently trading at all time highs. And I'm going |
| 104 | 00:19:44 --> 00:19:50 | to address that here because it's also a question keeps coming up a lot still, even though I answered it in my comment, or comment community section on my |
| 105 | 00:19:50 --> 00:19:50 | Youtube. |
| 106 | 00:19:52 --> 00:20:03 | When a market trades into all time highs, I am completely in the same category as every other trader. I don't know what it's gonna do. I don't know how far |
| 107 | 00:20:03 --> 00:20:10 | it's gonna go higher, you don't know how far it's gonna go higher, you don't know when it's going to stop. You don't know if it's going to reverse. No one |
| 108 | 00:20:10 --> 00:20:20 | knows that folks, no one knows that. So it's a very interesting condition to be in as a trader, because I know lots of things in how to trade inside of a range |
| 109 | 00:20:20 --> 00:20:32 | outside of a range. But at all time highs, I have no tools, I have no tools, I have a blank canvas in front of me. And I have to wait for the paint to be |
| 110 | 00:20:32 --> 00:20:44 | applied to the chart. I got to I got to work with what it gives me. And in my mind, this is the way I interpret it. Since we traded to all time highs, I don't |
| 111 | 00:20:44 --> 00:20:54 | want to go against that. So I will look to take buy signals until those buy signals prove to me not just by one losing trade, not by two losing trades. But |
| 112 | 00:20:54 --> 00:21:02 | if I go through a series of several days in a row, and if I'm buying, and it's failing, and I'm going in drawdown, and yes, I can go into drawdown if this is |
| 113 | 00:21:02 --> 00:21:12 | exactly where I would incur it. Because I'm in a discovery just like you are of whether or not the market is going to allow for prices to go higher, I believe |
| 114 | 00:21:12 --> 00:21:22 | that it will, it's a presidential year, it's an election year, they like to pump the markets up going into that. And every person that's been calling for a |
| 115 | 00:21:22 --> 00:21:35 | market crash has been made a fool. And I'm I'm not trying to fight against this. So I'm willing to keep applying my bias as being bullish looking for buy signals |
| 116 | 00:21:36 --> 00:21:46 | until I start seeing them fail. Okay, now the logic I just gave you, there's nothing else outside of that that I'm hiding from you. It's honestly, it's |
| 117 | 00:21:46 --> 00:21:54 | transparency. I don't know how far it's going to go up. And I don't know if it's going to reverse today. Tomorrow, I don't know, I have to wait and see I have to |
| 118 | 00:21:55 --> 00:22:05 | I have to be responsive to that. Because we're in in an expanding unknown range, we have no idea where that Terminus would be. So because it's more likely to |
| 119 | 00:22:06 --> 00:22:19 | keep going higher. I want to focus primarily on being a buyer only. Not that I won't go short. But I need to know that the larger higher timeframe momentum and |
| 120 | 00:22:19 --> 00:22:29 | narrative is, it's probably going to keep being pushed higher heat quoting at higher booking a higher repricing higher. So because that's the underlying |
| 121 | 00:22:29 --> 00:22:35 | premise, I don't want to put more emphasis on selling short thinking, I want to catch the high because that's really what you're trying to do not try to do a |
| 122 | 00:22:35 --> 00:22:43 | lot that in the 90s, I tried to be the highest highs and lowest lows, that type of thing. And there's ways of doing that stuff, but not in this condition. You |
| 123 | 00:22:43 --> 00:22:53 | never want to try to pick the top in a market like this, it'll rip your face off. So with this in mind, apply that same logic of okay, if you if you |
| 124 | 00:22:53 --> 00:23:01 | subscribe to the idea that a higher timeframe weekly or a monthly or daily chart is suggesting prices are going to be bullish, you want to limit your focus to |
| 125 | 00:23:01 --> 00:23:08 | being a buyer. That does not mean that you can't find scalps that go short on. But if you don't know what you're doing, or if you're lacking consistency, or |
| 126 | 00:23:08 --> 00:23:18 | you really can't read price, all that well start with just having a hard time bias and only study price action without pushing the button. With that in mind. |
| 127 | 00:23:19 --> 00:23:29 | Now, with that premise, we can see that we are in seven o'clock in the morning. So seven o'clock is the New York kill zone. So at seven o'clock in the morning, |
| 128 | 00:23:29 --> 00:23:37 | I can start looking for setups in any market. And I said this before, but it goes over the heads of some of you because you're not really doing too well. In |
| 129 | 00:23:37 --> 00:23:44 | terms of taking notes. There are things that I'll talk about that are specific to Forex. And there are things that I say that are specific to futures, and |
| 130 | 00:23:44 --> 00:23:55 | unless I say that, at the time of me teaching it, everything I say is universal. That's my belief. Okay. So at seven o'clock in the morning, that starts the New |
| 131 | 00:23:55 --> 00:24:09 | York kill zone. So if we have that doing ated sometime after seven o'clock, I'm bullish, why does retreat retreated to all time highs, I don't want to try to |
| 132 | 00:24:09 --> 00:24:20 | pick the top. I don't want to be a sucker and try to you know, do something that's impossible. So I want to look for areas where the retail trader that |
| 133 | 00:24:20 --> 00:24:32 | wants to sell short or try to pick the top or aggressive traders that you think are going to outsmart the marketplace. They're going to buy early. Buy buying |
| 134 | 00:24:32 --> 00:24:43 | early, they'll place a stop loss below a low that forms just after seven o'clock in the morning. So here's seven o'clock. We have a low went lower here, but see |
| 135 | 00:24:43 --> 00:24:57 | how shallow that was. You see that? Does that imply a continuation of the rest of the day? Probably not. And as we get closer to 838 30 is usually a turning |
| 136 | 00:24:57 --> 00:25:05 | point because whether there's news or not, and they're really isn't any news of any significance until 10 o'clock today, some kind of manufacturing index number |
| 137 | 00:25:05 --> 00:25:19 | something, and we'll get to that when we get into 930 Going into 10 o'clock, with the opening range, but this low here, this run here runs to this high to |
| 138 | 00:25:19 --> 00:25:30 | take up the liquidity, this low takes up the liquidity below here. And here. See that? So what I was looking at, and I promise you, I'm going to push the button |
| 139 | 00:25:30 --> 00:25:38 | live in front of you. But I'm going to teach this part two because this is literally what I'm going to do the when the Robins cup in 2024, I'm telling you |
| 140 | 00:25:38 --> 00:25:48 | in advance exactly how I'm going to do it. And you'll see in my statements, this is exactly what I was doing. Nobody's ever done this before. Okay, I'm telling |
| 141 | 00:25:48 --> 00:25:56 | you, it's I'm that confident that this is what it does every single day. It does this every single day. And it's not going to stop, there's going to be times |
| 142 | 00:25:56 --> 00:26:07 | where I'll read it wrong. But this is what's going on every single day, the market will trade to liquidity for the purposes of stopping out people that |
| 143 | 00:26:07 --> 00:26:17 | would be profitable at a later time when the market does run. So what is our bias today? It's by the Bush biases. We're not trying to pick the top on the |
| 144 | 00:26:17 --> 00:26:26 | daily chart. So we're focusing primarily on being long. When do we start looking at the charts at seven o'clock in the morning? It starts in New York session. Do |
| 145 | 00:26:26 --> 00:26:36 | you need to be in front of the charts at seven o'clock? No. Can you start at 815? And wait for 830? Yes, that's, that's, that's a good time to you're not |
| 146 | 00:26:36 --> 00:26:47 | locked into that. Because I just told you the beginning that every single hour, you can scalp every single 15 minute, there's a scale, every single fifth to |
| 147 | 00:26:47 --> 00:26:57 | every quarter part of one hour, there's a scalp but isn't going to run 100 handles all the time. So you have to strip it down. So what's the minimum? |
| 148 | 00:26:58 --> 00:27:09 | What's the minimum that I would like to see for trading and scalping the NASDAQ, it's 10 handles, if I can at least make 10 handles, and I'm going to tell you |
| 149 | 00:27:09 --> 00:27:18 | how to determine that. Okay. But if I can't make at least 10 handles, I'm not willing to take the trade. I don't care. I'll let it go. And there's lots of |
| 150 | 00:27:18 --> 00:27:27 | setups that I see. All day long, intraday, if I'm from charts, that I will say, Okay, I think it's going to do this, but I'm not, I don't want that one. And I'm |
| 151 | 00:27:27 --> 00:27:36 | going to tell you how to determine that today. This is one of those lessons where you have to let me talk. But I promise you're going to see it, because I'm |
| 152 | 00:27:36 --> 00:27:43 | going to show it to you in charts real time. But if we don't have an expectation of what we're focusing on going in, we're wasting our time here today. And I can |
| 153 | 00:27:43 --> 00:27:50 | push buttons in front of you make all kinds of pseudo profits, and you'll lead no nothing. And that's not why I'm here. And I could keep going back and making |
| 154 | 00:27:50 --> 00:27:59 | videos of me execution, doing executions and showing you that way. And that's, that's fascinating, gives you study homework, but I'm here to teach you today. |
| 155 | 00:27:59 --> 00:28:09 | So if we look at how the market dropped down, and it took out these lows here, see how they're relatively equal right there. I'm going to take this vertical |
| 156 | 00:28:09 --> 00:28:23 | line, because it's a little too, too aggressive. When we see that low right here on a five minute chart, see right here right above my cursor. That is this low |
| 157 | 00:28:23 --> 00:28:38 | rate there. Okay, go to the left of that low. What do you see? That's a down close candle. That is an order block, friends and neighbors. That's not a supply |
| 158 | 00:28:38 --> 00:28:52 | and demand zone. Okay, it's not what this is, is a candle that is opposed. It's closing lower. So it's a down close in a market that's predisposed to go higher. |
| 159 | 00:28:52 --> 00:29:02 | Why should it go higher? Well go up one timeframe from the five minute and it's the 15 minute. What's right here. See the smooth Heiser here. I'm going to |
| 160 | 00:29:02 --> 00:29:15 | annotate that. There. Okay. So you see this high right there? Look where it goes to it goes right there stops and comes right back down. And does what It |
| 161 | 00:29:15 --> 00:29:29 | unsettles the long's that had a stoploss rate below that low right there. And then the more prominent run takes place. And it's reaching up into this high. So |
| 162 | 00:29:30 --> 00:29:39 | on a 15 minute timeframe, whether I'm scalping, whether I'm day trading for the full daily range, or if I'm short term trading, regardless of whatever I'm |
| 163 | 00:29:39 --> 00:29:48 | doing, I am always referring to the 15 minute timeframe, as by my Bellwether timeframe, because on a 15 minute timeframe. Let me Let me maximize this real |
| 164 | 00:29:48 --> 00:29:53 | quick here on the 15 minute timeframe. |
| 165 | 00:29:55 --> 00:30:06 | This is going to give me all of the salient points points of liquidity that I believe is going to be pertinent to the session that I'm going to trade or about |
| 166 | 00:30:06 --> 00:30:16 | the trade. And it also will have the built in advantage of showing me the daily levels that I'd be interested in, if I was going to trade the full daily range, |
| 167 | 00:30:16 --> 00:30:24 | if I want to get the lion's portion of that full daily range, whether it be an update or a down day, I can determine those points of liquidity, whether it be |
| 168 | 00:30:24 --> 00:30:37 | by side or by stops, or sell side or sell stops, I can clearly easily see them on the 15 minute timeframe. And I can also see all of the pertinent imbalances. |
| 169 | 00:30:38 --> 00:30:48 | Whether it be a sell side imbalance by side inefficiency, or by sentiment on sell side efficiency, meaning a fair value get with the upper down close. And |
| 170 | 00:30:48 --> 00:30:58 | right now, when we see price here, afforded me the ability to talk about this because I did an execution before we started, and I'm gonna walk you through |
| 171 | 00:30:58 --> 00:31:05 | that as what I'm doing here. And then I'm going to do another one. After I go through that, and then at 10 o'clock, I'm going to do another one live right in |
| 172 | 00:31:05 --> 00:31:11 | front of you. I'm going to put the trade on, I'm going to put the stop loss on I'm going to talk about every single candlestick that I believe is going to |
| 173 | 00:31:12 --> 00:31:24 | paint after that. But allow me Okay, allow me the Florida view it like this. Okay. If you see this setting here, on the 50 minute timeframe. Now I think we |
| 174 | 00:31:24 --> 00:31:38 | start the day at midnight, New York local time, that's the beginning of the new day. What does the london session do? Between two o'clock and five o'clock in |
| 175 | 00:31:38 --> 00:31:38 | the morning? |
| 176 | 00:31:44 --> 00:31:54 | Folks, I would have paid money for someone to teach me what I'm going to show you today. And you're getting it for free. That's worth a thumbs up. Alright, |
| 177 | 00:31:54 --> 00:32:04 | between two o'clock and five o'clock in the morning, that is the London Open kill zone. Why is that thing taken forever to make? You go. So from two o'clock |
| 178 | 00:32:05 --> 00:32:17 | to five o'clock in the morning, what's the market do? It drops this here is due to swing. A Judas swing is a fake price run for the Express purposes of taking |
| 179 | 00:32:17 --> 00:32:28 | traders out of potentially profitable traders position being long in this case, or to put them into the opposite direction, because there's always gonna be |
| 180 | 00:32:28 --> 00:32:38 | traders out there that trade a breakout. I'm not a breakout trader. We'll talk about breakaway gaps today too, by the way, the idea of focusing on a bias that |
| 181 | 00:32:38 --> 00:32:46 | is bullish on the daily chart, weekly chart and monthly chart, we're expecting higher prices, were not resisting the likelihood of higher prices and a new all |
| 182 | 00:32:46 --> 00:33:00 | time high on that day. So because of that, in my mind, I want to see what price does between midnight, going down into two o'clock. Is price dropping? Yes. Is |
| 183 | 00:33:00 --> 00:33:14 | it dropping to some random level? No, look over here. Below that Lowe's is going to be what sell stops. So traders that see this low and break below that. And |
| 184 | 00:33:14 --> 00:33:23 | it's consolidating, someone's going long there. I don't need to know who it is, there's always going to be buyers and sellers always. But that buyer or seller |
| 185 | 00:33:23 --> 00:33:33 | pressure is not what causes markets to go higher or lower. The markets are absolutely rigged, they're they're engineered to go higher or lower. Because |
| 186 | 00:33:33 --> 00:33:43 | whatever the market isn't, in fact, trying to reach for buyers and sellers. They're not pushing it there. The market is gonna go to where the liquidity is. |
| 187 | 00:33:43 --> 00:33:55 | And they will keep repricing until it gets there. Because it's a game that's controlled by them, quote unquote, okay, if you understand that, and just warm |
| 188 | 00:33:55 --> 00:34:03 | up to the idea that it's rigged. Initially, it sucks when you think about it, because you think Well, I have no chance. But when you realize it is rigged, now |
| 189 | 00:34:03 --> 00:34:12 | you do have a chance, because it's rigged. It's not it's not random then right. So if we're bullish, and we see that they did, in fact, take out traders, that |
| 190 | 00:34:12 --> 00:34:23 | head stops below here, at a time of day when it creates the high or low of the day, not all the time, not all the time, most time between two o'clock and five |
| 191 | 00:34:23 --> 00:34:32 | o'clock in the morning, London will create the higher low of the day, whether it be Forex, whether it be index futures, it doesn't matter. This is a truism. Do |
| 192 | 00:34:32 --> 00:34:44 | not take my word for that. Go on your charts and study it. Now because it does that very thing here, right at 330. And that's interesting time because if you |
| 193 | 00:34:44 --> 00:34:52 | go through my private mentorship core content lessons right on his YouTube channel, every you'll hear me even teach about that right there. And that's the |
| 194 | 00:34:52 --> 00:35:03 | low of the day. Now, when it creates that low, we want to see some kind of displacement to the upside because If it does do that, that's indicating the |
| 195 | 00:35:03 --> 00:35:16 | algorithm is flashing, like a billboard sign to smart money who trades on it. It's gonna go up now. So focus on seeking a premium price. So what is a premium |
| 196 | 00:35:16 --> 00:35:33 | price? It's going to be a short term high. Because the rate above short term highs is gonna be what? By stops. And for and, or a fair value gap above market |
| 197 | 00:35:33 --> 00:35:50 | price. Okay, so if we went down here, where is there a owed high? And where is there an imbalance? Well, between this low here to this candle here what is that |
| 198 | 00:35:52 --> 00:36:04 | that's an imbalance. It's a sell side unbalanced bias on efficiency. A fair value gap that has a down close is a city sell side in balance, meaning it moved |
| 199 | 00:36:04 --> 00:36:17 | predominately more to downside. And it's inefficient. In its buy side delivery, meaning since it's one big candle that went down and closed lower, you want to |
| 200 | 00:36:17 --> 00:36:27 | find the previous candle to it, and the candle after it. Those are the range extremes that you're annotating. So down here when I hit the stops, first thing |
| 201 | 00:36:27 --> 00:36:37 | in my mind is okay, how do we trade after that, and it should go into this gap here, which is being shaded. Does it do that? Absolutely it does. Then it |
| 202 | 00:36:37 --> 00:36:49 | creates what? Another gap here. This is a buy side and balance sell side inefficiency. Because it's a fair value gap that hasn't up close. So while I'm |
| 203 | 00:36:49 --> 00:37:05 | looking at price action, in response to this area here, I'm also now measuring the willingness to see price, find more support in this fair value gap. So I'm |
| 204 | 00:37:05 --> 00:37:20 | looking at it like a rock climber would, okay, I look at this entire drop here as a rock or cliff on a rock. And I want to climb all that I might not be |
| 205 | 00:37:20 --> 00:37:31 | successful, making it a little bit too high, or to the zenith of it, okay, the top of it might not be I might not be equipped to be able to get there. But I |
| 206 | 00:37:31 --> 00:37:42 | might be able to climb up high enough and get the memory or the visuals or maybe the picture of being at that point. Well, in that case, it's here. What's the |
| 207 | 00:37:42 --> 00:37:49 | what's the I mentioned earlier when we were looking at price action on the one minute chart. But when price starts to run up in here, it goes into this area |
| 208 | 00:37:49 --> 00:38:00 | here and just comes into the high of that candle right there. So what's above that another gap? We'll get to that in a minute, okay. But the market rallies up |
| 209 | 00:38:00 --> 00:38:12 | and leaves this imbalance. Okay, I'm gonna move this box over a little bit by one. So that way we can see zoom. And also, I promise you folks, this is exactly |
| 210 | 00:38:12 --> 00:38:21 | what's missing from you. Watching price action live, when you start looking at it like this, I promise everything will start clicking. And it'll feel like it's |
| 211 | 00:38:21 --> 00:38:33 | illegal for you to know what you do. So this buyside analysis on efficiency, I'm annotating the high of that candle and the low of that candle. And I'm focusing |
| 212 | 00:38:33 --> 00:38:42 | on the range between those two price points on this candle here. So when you see me putting rectangles on my chart, that's not a supply and demand zone. I'm |
| 213 | 00:38:42 --> 00:38:56 | looking at how this offered by side imbalance. It's inefficient. In the scope that is not offered enough opportunity for people to sell, it's moved one |
| 214 | 00:38:56 --> 00:39:08 | sidedly when this timeframe, the 50 minute timeframe. So I'm anticipating price to want to do what offer price on the downside or offer it through sell side |
| 215 | 00:39:08 --> 00:39:20 | delivery. This is by side delivery when price is expanding higher. This is sellside delivery when it's offering price as prices dropping, since I seen it |
| 216 | 00:39:20 --> 00:39:32 | price drop down here. And I'm bullish longer term. I anticipate this as a stop run. I don't need to buy down here. I don't need to I don't need to be awake. In |
| 217 | 00:39:32 --> 00:39:42 | fact, I wasn't to see this. If it was I was if I was awake at the time I would have went long in here. And then I would appear omitted in here and added more. |
| 218 | 00:39:43 --> 00:39:51 | And then I would a pyramid right there where you where you're going to see where I entered. This is the only trade I took today so far with this paper trading |
| 219 | 00:39:51 --> 00:39:59 | account. This right here. We're gonna get into that and then we'll go back to this for a second. So think about it goes down here to take the stock on a day |
| 220 | 00:39:59 --> 00:40:12 | when we're bullish. Okay, wonderful. Does the market immediately react by going higher after it goes below? That low? Yes, it does. And also notice where the |
| 221 | 00:40:12 --> 00:40:24 | bodies are. See the wicks are, they're trading down and past that low. That's the damage. The bodies are telling you. It's like, if you were in a card game, |
| 222 | 00:40:24 --> 00:40:33 | okay, and you had a Confederate working with you, someone that's gonna cheat the game with you, and you're trying to beat the players at the other side of the |
| 223 | 00:40:33 --> 00:40:43 | table with you. And nobody knows that you're in cahoots with the guy across the table or the dealer. They may flash their cards, okay, and tell you this is what |
| 224 | 00:40:43 --> 00:40:52 | I'm playing with? Well, that's the equivalent what's going on here with these bodies? You see where the close of this candle is here? Yes, this candle went |
| 225 | 00:40:52 --> 00:40:54 | all the way down there, but then closed right there. |
| 226 | 00:40:55 --> 00:41:04 | And then this candle open, went all the way down here past that low again, and then close right there. And then we open on this candle and tore off that to me. |
| 227 | 00:41:04 --> 00:41:14 | Listen, folks, listen. This is where you're supposed to be writing things down. If not, at least put down the time marker. Just hover over top of the the little |
| 228 | 00:41:14 --> 00:41:24 | window down here tells you what minute marker this is, and write this down. Okay. How do I know when to trust a fair value gap? Well, first I have to have a |
| 229 | 00:41:24 --> 00:41:35 | bias. Okay, am I bullish or bearish? Because the narrative is going to build the idea of whether or not going to be bullish or bearish. The bias cannot be |
| 230 | 00:41:35 --> 00:41:42 | derived until you at least confer with what the present narrative is. And the narrative is what I've been talking about. The market is long term bullish, |
| 231 | 00:41:42 --> 00:41:49 | we're at all time highs, avoid trying to pick top. Now, take that part out of the equation, okay, because we're not always gonna be trading all time highs. |
| 232 | 00:41:49 --> 00:41:57 | Okay, just take that away. If we're bullish on the weekly chart, you think the weekly charts gonna go higher. It's the same thing, folks. We're not reinventing |
| 233 | 00:41:57 --> 00:42:05 | anything. I'm not complicating anything. This is my approach to teaching you how to trade using my concepts inside of a live stream for three hours, I promise |
| 234 | 00:42:05 --> 00:42:11 | you, you're gonna leave today know how to do this stuff. You may not fully understand it at the time and first viewing, but you will have everything in |
| 235 | 00:42:11 --> 00:42:17 | your hands. You don't need to you don't need to buy my books. You don't need to come back my youtube channel after this. Okay, I'm literally putting in your |
| 236 | 00:42:17 --> 00:42:26 | hands. If, if my son or daughter said ICT Daddy, can you please tell me how to do this as short as you possibly can and go right in and start making money. |
| 237 | 00:42:26 --> 00:42:36 | This is today this is it. Okay, but not knowing you're really going to consider that because you don't want to hear me talk. But the body's respecting the fact |
| 238 | 00:42:36 --> 00:42:47 | that it didn't close below that low. That tells me that this was a stop rate. So what does that really answer? Well, it answers How do you know what's going on |
| 239 | 00:42:47 --> 00:42:55 | not go through that loan. Keep on going, I don't know when the first candle I want to wait and see when it closes. It closes here, then I want to see the next |
| 240 | 00:42:55 --> 00:43:04 | candle. What does it do? Does a little movement below that. But then the body stops here. What is that? That candles close right there? What is that? That's a |
| 241 | 00:43:04 --> 00:43:12 | swing low, go back and look at the videos. That's a swing low at a time when I'm bullish at a time of the day when it creates the low of the day. If I'm bullish, |
| 242 | 00:43:13 --> 00:43:23 | it's knocked out traders that are long, that had stopped below that. So we crossed all boxes off that this is a high probability reversal in a dent in a |
| 243 | 00:43:23 --> 00:43:37 | day that's likely go higher. You see how all these things come together like a dovetail. It's beautiful, it's perfect symmetry. If you wake up at eight o'clock |
| 244 | 00:43:37 --> 00:43:50 | in the morning, seven o'clock in the morning, you know anytime before the opening bell at 930. I look at the overnight session and see what it did like |
| 245 | 00:43:50 --> 00:43:59 | this, I'd look at London's trading from midnight to the London Open. And my London Open kill zone is two o'clock in the morning to five o'clock that |
| 246 | 00:43:59 --> 00:44:09 | morning, New York local time. I don't care where you live, where you are geographically. If your charts are not set to this right here, you cannot learn |
| 247 | 00:44:09 --> 00:44:16 | properly from me. Because you're going to try to apply your local time, wherever that is. And it's going to mess up everything. And plus you're going to be |
| 248 | 00:44:16 --> 00:44:24 | trying to send me messages through TradingView or leaving comments in my videos saying, you know, I'm looking at this candle at that time and your time is your |
| 249 | 00:44:24 --> 00:44:33 | local time. Not the time I'm referring to it or relative to New York time. Everything algorithmic runs on New York time. I don't care what anybody tells |
| 250 | 00:44:33 --> 00:44:44 | you. That's what it does. That's what it does. Okay. So that to this. How do you trust fair value gaps are good for Long's or shorts, or in this case, we're |
| 251 | 00:44:44 --> 00:44:53 | bullish, and we do see the signature that we did run stops and this candlestick closes above the load that was taken out for stops. So that right there is my |
| 252 | 00:44:53 --> 00:45:03 | first indication that it's a very high probability reversal point, but I don't need to buy it yet. I don't need to buy it. You don't need to buy it yet. Ego |
| 253 | 00:45:03 --> 00:45:10 | says you need to buy it there. You don't you wait for the next candle, does it create a swing low? Yes, what is the swing low swing low was a candlestick that |
| 254 | 00:45:10 --> 00:45:18 | has a low right here, right above my cursor. And then the load, it takes out that liquidity below that low over here. So we have a lower low on that |
| 255 | 00:45:18 --> 00:45:32 | candlestick. And then the next candle when it closes has a higher low than this candle here. So what we're saying is a swing low. If you'll allow me to draw a |
| 256 | 00:45:32 --> 00:45:42 | real quick, crude depiction of it. Don't worry about the colors, because that's not significant here. But a swing low |
| 257 | 00:45:51 --> 00:45:59 | is this it's any swing point in price, when the price swings up. And it makes some kind of a turning point starts to move lower, the opposite would be seen |
| 258 | 00:45:59 --> 00:46:00 | here like this. |
| 259 | 00:46:07 --> 00:46:21 | That's a swing high. swing lows that, okay, it's three bars, three candlesticks, and the length of these, okay, this has no bearing on anything, it could look |
| 260 | 00:46:21 --> 00:46:34 | like that. Or it could look like this. You just need to have three of them. Okay, that's also part of power three. It'll be in a book, trust me. Oh, you're |
| 261 | 00:46:34 --> 00:46:42 | a tease is easy. Well, I got to do it somehow, right, you got to get so worked up. And a swing high could look like this, where the first high of the three |
| 262 | 00:46:42 --> 00:46:54 | guard candles is lower than the highest one and still lower than the third candles high. Or it could look like this. As long as there's three candles with |
| 263 | 00:46:54 --> 00:47:06 | a candle to the left, with a lower high and a candle to the right, with a lower high than the highest one, that's a swing high. It doesn't matter if this high |
| 264 | 00:47:06 --> 00:47:17 | is higher or lower than this high, it doesn't matter, we just need three of them to cause a turning point. So when I see that in price action, it gives me |
| 265 | 00:47:17 --> 00:47:26 | confidence to trust that that that wasn't raised on the sell side, below that low here. And then the highest probability trade is to wait to see if there's |
| 266 | 00:47:26 --> 00:47:39 | displacement. That means I'm letting it or let me let me properly phrase this. If I had been awake, I would have allowed for this move to occur. And then try |
| 267 | 00:47:39 --> 00:47:46 | to buy something out here. But let's say I didn't get it say I missed it or walk away from a computer. And it just, I missed the ideal entry. Then I'm gonna |
| 268 | 00:47:46 --> 00:47:57 | wait. I'm gonna wait for this right here. I want to see it dig up into this. This is gonna be very hard for me to have this on the chart because a lot of |
| 269 | 00:47:57 --> 00:47:59 | stuff going on right now. |
| 270 | 00:48:04 --> 00:48:15 | Remember, this is the sell side of balance by selling efficiency, which in that candles low and it candles Hi. Take this off for a second. I want to see it run |
| 271 | 00:48:15 --> 00:48:29 | up into these extremes from here to hear I want to see how it trades there. Does it trade all the way up to and close above halfway? Halfway what? This gap? So |
| 272 | 00:48:29 --> 00:48:40 | if you take the film and measure that here's 50% of it. Does it close above that? Yes. So what does that tell me algorithmically? That it's going to use |
| 273 | 00:48:40 --> 00:48:55 | this imbalance here, okay? It's going to use that as a draw on liquidity. And now I want to see it do what work its way back down into this gap from this |
| 274 | 00:48:55 --> 00:49:08 | candle is high in that candles love this gap right here. I'm only going to refer to it in terms of its consequent encouragement, which is the midpoint of that |
| 275 | 00:49:08 --> 00:49:19 | gap, the 50%. And I would use that on a lower timeframe chart to see if it's going to offer me an opportunity to go long. But it's already fulfilled is role |
| 276 | 00:49:19 --> 00:49:29 | here by drawing price up. So what does it tell me at that point? It tells me that okay, this was a stop on the market does what at that point? It's going to |
| 277 | 00:49:29 --> 00:49:41 | seek inefficiencies above price. Well, it did that quickly here. Where's there other inefficiencies right in here. And where are the bus stops above that high. |
| 278 | 00:49:42 --> 00:49:47 | And it's relative equal relative equal highs rather. So there's by sight above the market rate there |
| 279 | 00:49:57 --> 00:50:09 | so those buy stops once the sale started. been taken? Smart Money does this. It buys sell stops and sells to buy stops. Do you see what it did here and went |
| 280 | 00:50:09 --> 00:50:24 | below that low accumulated long positions with willing bodied sellers at a low price. Why? Because somebody went long here. Do I need to know whom and how many |
| 281 | 00:50:24 --> 00:50:32 | and who it was? No, you don't either. You don't need a book map, you don't need a ladder, you don't need depth of market, you don't need all these things, you |
| 282 | 00:50:32 --> 00:50:39 | will sell your your tape reading, show me what you're doing with level two data, you don't need any of that stuff. I know what these markets are doing, you're |
| 283 | 00:50:39 --> 00:50:49 | teaching, I'm teaching you how to do it. Without any gimmicks, nothing, you have nothing to add to these charts, you need to know what time it is. And they can't |
| 284 | 00:50:49 --> 00:50:58 | hide it, they cannot hide it liquidity will be above here. They cannot hide the inefficiencies that the chart will absolutely draw attention to. You have to |
| 285 | 00:50:58 --> 00:51:08 | have a time based chart. anyone tells you that time based charts are useless. They're ignorant, they're ignorant, they have no idea what you're talking about. |
| 286 | 00:51:08 --> 00:51:19 | Because price moves on the basis of time. First, it's time and price. Look at the low of the day. Go back and look at the day trading concepts and concepts of |
| 287 | 00:51:19 --> 00:51:28 | talk about 330. That's your turning point. It's the it's the low of the day. You can't fight this, okay, you can punch in the air all you want, but it doesn't |
| 288 | 00:51:28 --> 00:51:35 | change it. So it's better for you to say okay, well, the guy's not selling it to him, he's given to me for free. And we investigate it further and see if they |
| 289 | 00:51:35 --> 00:51:45 | can help me. And you'll be pleasantly surprised. But now we're back into this discussion right here. So this becomes my primary focus. Because I want to be a |
| 290 | 00:51:45 --> 00:51:57 | buyer on a day like this, you would want to be a buyer in your demo account. On these days. I gotta be consistent making sure you don't see this as investment |
| 291 | 00:51:57 --> 00:52:07 | advice books, all we're doing is we're studying the future probability of price delivery, okay, that's, that's really what we're doing here. Okay, if you cross |
| 292 | 00:52:07 --> 00:52:13 | the line, and you say, I'm going to take real money and put in the market and risk it doing this, you have made that decision, I never tell anybody to do |
| 293 | 00:52:13 --> 00:52:24 | that. Okay. But there will be probably a day that comes in the future, for some of you sooner than others. Where you feel confident to do this with real money. |
| 294 | 00:52:25 --> 00:52:35 | I don't want you blaming me for your wins or your losses, because you you earned them both. Okay. So just be aware that I have opened this discussion on like I |
| 295 | 00:52:35 --> 00:52:45 | do all the time. I'm teaching with a Demo, demo account, or demo trade or paper trading account for my legal protection. But we're all watching Real Time price |
| 296 | 00:52:45 --> 00:52:54 | action. It's all happening live. Okay. And if these things don't work in live market conditions, whether it's a demo trade or paper trade, or even tape |
| 297 | 00:52:54 --> 00:53:03 | reading, which is what I want you to start doing, don't push a button even in a paper trading account. Don't try to go out and get your funded account |
| 298 | 00:53:03 --> 00:53:11 | challenges past you need to do this for a couple of months. Because once you get confident and you know what you're looking for, when price shows you this, this |
| 299 | 00:53:11 --> 00:53:25 | displacement to the upside. And then you wait patiently for to trade great back down into this candlesticks movement higher, the market will want to offer down |
| 300 | 00:53:26 --> 00:53:36 | clothes or down expansion candles, which is sell side delivery, it really means this simply this, the market moved up right here, one candle, and between this |
| 301 | 00:53:36 --> 00:53:47 | candles low and that candles high, there has not been any movement to the downside, which would be an efficient delivery of price action. If this was |
| 302 | 00:53:47 --> 00:53:55 | paint, I've said this analogy before you apply the paint with a paint roller to your wall right here. You roll it up. And then as you roll it up, the more you |
| 303 | 00:53:55 --> 00:54:04 | go up, you'll start seeing that the paint doesn't fully get applied to the wall. So what do you have to do to fix that, you roll the roller right back down over |
| 304 | 00:54:04 --> 00:54:13 | top of where you started to make sure there's a efficient or ample amount of paint between here which is this candles high all the way up to this high now. |
| 305 | 00:54:13 --> 00:54:24 | Because if we went back Oh down here. So now we're going to we have all this wall up to these highs to paint. So as an analogy, you're watching price paint |
| 306 | 00:54:24 --> 00:54:35 | on that Canvas between this candles high in these candles highs. So it first started off real quick right here. So it wants to come right back down. And what |
| 307 | 00:54:35 --> 00:54:47 | that does, it affords Smart Money traders that know how to use this tipping of the hand by the algorithm to now enter to get long, accumulate long positions. |
| 308 | 00:54:48 --> 00:55:01 | Where would they buy? I told you I'm giving you all the answers today. If you look at the high to the low I'm gonna take these extensions off because I don't |
| 309 | 00:55:01 --> 00:55:08 | want them drawing any attention. Because they're not not useful here. And I'm not trying to hide something from you. I just want to make sure that we're, |
| 310 | 00:55:08 --> 00:55:17 | we're looking at the pertinent levels here, the salient points, if you will. Here's the midpoint of that big up close candle. Okay, see that? We went past |
| 311 | 00:55:17 --> 00:55:29 | it. Yes. But look at where the bodies are closing. Are they closing at or below? That candlesticks high? No. Did we trade to that candle and through it, yes, |
| 312 | 00:55:29 --> 00:55:38 | because we allow the wicks to do that. Remember, the wicks do the damage. So when you're using stop losses, I'm looking at where those wicks have done the |
| 313 | 00:55:38 --> 00:55:49 | damage prior to my entry, or before I moved my stop loss. And because I know I see damage was done here. And I know that it can overshoot this a little bit. |
| 314 | 00:55:50 --> 00:55:59 | Okay, so if I was long down here, my stop loss would make jammed up underneath these bodies. Because if it was, I would have been stopped out prematurely. So |
| 315 | 00:55:59 --> 00:56:11 | the fact that these candles are closing above the high that candle, which makes this a pass on balance on efficiency, fair value gap, trading down the net |
| 316 | 00:56:11 --> 00:56:23 | inefficiency, and these candles bodies not closing at or below tells me that we're really going to move higher. And attack at the very minimum, these |
| 317 | 00:56:23 --> 00:56:34 | relative equal highs. And because we're on a 50 minute timeframe chart, we're going to tack that high, which I told you live that we would draw to in it did, |
| 318 | 00:56:34 --> 00:56:46 | okay, by in and of itself, that is all you need as a model. That's it, I didn't need to get a create a higher high the day, I didn't need to move your 100 |
| 319 | 00:56:46 --> 00:56:55 | handles or 100 points, you don't need that in the beginning, you need to know what you're looking for on a very small scale, that's 10 handles. Okay, minimum |
| 320 | 00:56:55 --> 00:57:08 | 10 handles, if it can't move 10 handles, then you don't do anything with it. Okay, but as price moves up. In this range here, we want to determine how we can |
| 321 | 00:57:08 --> 00:57:18 | also scale in because they you didn't get in down here towards the lower end below the 50% of that gap between this candles low and this candles high and not |
| 322 | 00:57:18 --> 00:57:30 | had that rectangle set, we know what I'm referring to visually. Because if this is your first time, it's probably going over your head. And I'm trying to be |
| 323 | 00:57:30 --> 00:57:42 | very, very thorough, but not too thorough to lose you. But this big candle here, it creates an imbalance. And when it trades down like this, you want to be |
| 324 | 00:57:42 --> 00:57:53 | buying in that. Okay, I have students sometimes say, why are you buying here in here? And down in here? Why don't you just buy one time? Well, because the |
| 325 | 00:57:53 --> 00:58:02 | market could go down just a little bit, and then stop right there and go higher. It can go down to the midpoint of the gap, which is this level here and go there |
| 326 | 00:58:02 --> 00:58:12 | and stop and go higher, we can go all the way down and close or go past it a little bit like it does here. And I don't know that but I want to secure my |
| 327 | 00:58:12 --> 00:58:25 | largest position. I'm doing my largest entry first. So if I was buying like say for instance, I was going to do a position of 10 contracts. I would go in at six |
| 328 | 00:58:25 --> 00:58:39 | right here at the upper quadrant. These teaching quarters theory No, no. No, not. Here is 25%. And we'll toggle the 75%. Okay. And now that what that does is |
| 329 | 00:58:39 --> 00:58:51 | it grades in quarters, the low and the high of that boss Annabelle and sales and efficiency. See that. So I could be buying right there at six contracts. I can |
| 330 | 00:58:51 --> 00:59:00 | add two more there. And two more there. So heavy I would be positioned for 10 contracts. Yes, my six contracts would be a little bit drawdown when it trades |
| 331 | 00:59:00 --> 00:59:07 | to here. And then it would be in further drawdown because I add two more there when it drops down to here. I'm completely fine with that. Because my risk would |
| 332 | 00:59:07 --> 00:59:13 | be affording a move down to this candlesticks consequent encroachment. |
| 333 | 00:59:15 --> 00:59:25 | At least considering it going to at least move that far. Now why that? Why that? Because the likelihood of coming all the way down to halfway up this week. Well, |
| 334 | 00:59:25 --> 00:59:36 | it's possible, it's unlikely to do that. Why? Because we had that swing low there. So this wick went lower than this wicks loaded. So this is the one that |
| 335 | 00:59:36 --> 00:59:46 | if it's going to reach into a wick, or midpoint of a wick, it's going to go into that one as an extreme. And you can see we did go past a little bit, but we |
| 336 | 00:59:46 --> 00:59:56 | didn't even get to the midpoint. See that? So that's how I would have placed my stop and manage my stop there as I was entering here, here in here. And some of |
| 337 | 00:59:56 --> 01:00:03 | you might think well, you know, that's that's a that's a lot of range. Well, it's relative to your account balance, it's relative to what you're willing to |
| 338 | 01:00:03 --> 01:00:13 | assume in risk. If the risk is too large, and I can't facilitate that risk percentage on six contracts, then I would start with four, or three or whatever. |
| 339 | 01:00:13 --> 01:00:25 | And then I would have to work with adding singles, as that worked higher up. So here's how I'm balancing my total risk based on my equity, and then also what I |
| 340 | 01:00:25 --> 01:00:34 | anticipate is permissible in the current market structure, what is what is it likely to do? What is it unlikely to do and then where's the gray area that |
| 341 | 01:00:34 --> 01:00:44 | feels like it's the highest probability of me being efficiently executing, and not absorbing or taking on considerable risk, and affording myself the potential |
| 342 | 01:00:44 --> 01:00:54 | for price to run in my favor. So if we have this here, I'm going to drop out the 50 minute chart because everything I'm annotating here will be able to see on a |
| 343 | 01:00:54 --> 01:01:04 | five minute chart and what you see. Now over here on the five minute chart on that call, maximize it. Now look, what's going on here, we dropped down. Look |
| 344 | 01:01:04 --> 01:01:18 | how much work they're doing at the lower quadrant, the 25%. From this candles, pie to that candles low. So there's four. So sorry, 12345 points inside of that |
| 345 | 01:01:18 --> 01:01:27 | range that I'm interested in. It's obviously the low it's the high in the midpoint, but there's two quadrants, upper quadrant and the lower quadrant. Look |
| 346 | 01:01:27 --> 01:01:37 | how prices behave and see what it did here. See how that overlaps with this down close candles? Hi, that's an order block. It's not just a down closed candle |
| 347 | 01:01:37 --> 01:01:45 | that makes it an order block. It's the narrative that it's a bullish day. We did come down into this and close up that vos Annabelle cells on efficiency. And |
| 348 | 01:01:45 --> 01:01:55 | then does price support at the lower quadrant. Look what it's doing here. Is it doing it? Yes. Is that quarters theory? No. Is it algorithmic? Absolutely. And |
| 349 | 01:01:55 --> 01:02:04 | does the market run higher there? Yes. And it drops right back down into this by side unbalanced assaults on efficiency, that one single candle, which is the |
| 350 | 01:02:04 --> 01:02:16 | same thing we're annotating on the 15 minute chart, that scene here in three five minute candlesticks that singular one pass higher there is a replication of |
| 351 | 01:02:16 --> 01:02:26 | this larger one just in a small timeframe. But look what it does. It allows you to see if it trades back down into the upper quadrant, which is completely |
| 352 | 01:02:26 --> 01:02:35 | permissible. And it trades down to this candlesticks. Hi, what is the candlesticks? Hi, look right up here. Was the candlesticks high right there |
| 353 | 01:02:37 --> 01:02:52 | 17,450.25. This candlestick trades down to a low of 70,004 48.75. Is that a lot of difference? Is that a lot of drawdown their way? Absolutely not. In the |
| 354 | 01:02:52 --> 01:03:08 | market does what on this candlestick here, the low 17,004 50.50. Only about a quarter point. A quarter point. A tick is what that is? Order block. |
| 355 | 01:03:08 --> 01:03:20 | inefficiency. Bias is bullish cell size taken relatively equal highs is your first draw. And 50 Min. By side up here. It was sold to you when it's happening |
| 356 | 01:03:20 --> 01:03:29 | live. What did the market do? They rallied. So this will be an area we can be a buyer to this would be a real good area for me if I was missing everything down |
| 357 | 01:03:29 --> 01:03:35 | here. And I didn't do anything down here. I didn't do anything here. I could be buyer right there as it drops down to the upper quadrant because it's filling in |
| 358 | 01:03:35 --> 01:03:46 | that inefficiency there. And I'm anticipating and expecting price to do what expand to draw into the buy stops. Why? Because smart money bought the sell |
| 359 | 01:03:46 --> 01:03:56 | stops. And they know that the market is rigged and they're going to wait not because of buying pressure. That's going to put it up there now. It's time |
| 360 | 01:03:57 --> 01:04:07 | they're waiting for price to be delivered there by the algorithm. It's a price engine folks. It's literally rigged. Okay, it's literally rigged. And all we're |
| 361 | 01:04:07 --> 01:04:17 | doing is looking for opportunities for price to do what show its hand to us. If we're bullish, okay, then it should show us sell stop being taken out for |
| 362 | 01:04:17 --> 01:04:24 | support in areas where there's inefficiency, like we showed on a 15 minute timeframe. And when you drop down to lower timeframes, all of a sudden you get |
| 363 | 01:04:24 --> 01:04:35 | more details than you never noticed before. Because you don't think there's an algorithm. If all this stuff was renamed by somebody else's work, why aren't |
| 364 | 01:04:35 --> 01:04:44 | they trading like this? Because it's not somebody else's work. So the market rips higher. Let's take our attention back to the 15 minute chart just for a |
| 365 | 01:04:44 --> 01:04:55 | second, okay. I gotta get through this because we're fastly approaching 930. What we're doing here are the minimalize this |
| 366 | 01:05:00 --> 01:05:13 | This and then that's so we'll 15 timeframe or maximize that real quick. So we have this bottle ml, so some efficiency trades down into it. And then there's |
| 367 | 01:05:13 --> 01:05:21 | this gap I mentioned earlier. Okay, now think, what is it inversion fair Baker ICT how to you know, when you're doing your live trades and you're annotating |
| 368 | 01:05:21 --> 01:05:30 | them, you're calling an inversion for your day? Yeah. Before even forms before even trades there. Right? That's authorship, you would expect that right. So |
| 369 | 01:05:30 --> 01:05:41 | let's go into it here. From this candlesticks, low to that candlesticks Hi, are you having fun? Are you learning anything today? cuz I'll tell you, me if I was |
| 370 | 01:05:41 --> 01:05:53 | my 20 year old self. And some guy was on the internet showing me this stuff over live price action. I don't know I would be giddy. So now think, okay, if I'm |
| 371 | 01:05:53 --> 01:06:05 | bullish, if I'm expecting price to go up to here, and we're only right here, and we're trading up into it. Everyone else that thinks that they see this as a |
| 372 | 01:06:05 --> 01:06:17 | liquidity void, or starts being hunted and liquidity void, and we're going lower, they would see that as a short entry. Not me. Not me. And I can say that |
| 373 | 01:06:17 --> 01:06:29 | because you watch me do it example after example of live executions. When I called it on Twitter a lot. I'd say okay, take that fairway get extended to the |
| 374 | 01:06:29 --> 01:06:40 | right. What am I telling you? I'm telling you that this right here this sellside unbalanced by Simon efficiency where the candlesticks low of that candle right |
| 375 | 01:06:40 --> 01:06:48 | there, which is that move it over just a little as you can see again? And zoom in actually, because I want to make sure you understand exactly what's going on |
| 376 | 01:06:48 --> 01:06:59 | here. What's your money's worth? Okay. So this candlesticks low and this candlesticks high right here, that portion on this candle? That's what I'm |
| 377 | 01:06:59 --> 01:07:15 | highlighting? What is that? The algorithm will go right back to this timeframe. Right back to this range in price action being this that candlesticks low and |
| 378 | 01:07:15 --> 01:07:34 | this candlesticks high. And we're gonna highlight, we're gonna darken up that rectangles mid mid level. Okay, and I want that to be bolded like that. Okay, so |
| 379 | 01:07:34 --> 01:07:53 | that's what I'm highlighting there. Okay. And let's go back out to little too far. Already, some of you already see what's going on. I can't believe I can't |
| 380 | 01:07:53 --> 01:08:04 | believe this stuff really works. So because I'm bullish, I'm going to look at old cell side and balance by side and efficiencies are down close fair value |
| 381 | 01:08:04 --> 01:08:14 | gaps as a rock climber. Okay, I'm going up. I'm trying to climb the surface of this rock surface to get to this liquidity. And maybe if I'm strong enough, and |
| 382 | 01:08:14 --> 01:08:22 | hold on long enough, I might be able to get to the zenith of that high back there, like I talked about real time for did it. If that's the case, I know that |
| 383 | 01:08:22 --> 01:08:38 | this imbalance exists. Because if this is there on the sell side delivery, part of what part of what a market that is potentially going higher, then I'm going |
| 384 | 01:08:38 --> 01:08:48 | to treat this as a foothold or a hand grabbing point as a rock climber. And I'm going to wait for it to trade up above it. My hands gonna use it to pull me up |
| 385 | 01:08:48 --> 01:08:59 | higher in my trade. And then I'm gonna wait for it to I'm gonna get above it. And then I'm trade long when it moves into this area. Why? Why should I do that? |
| 386 | 01:09:00 --> 01:09:09 | Because it's going to act as support because why? If it's going to go higher, it's inefficient over here because it went down on this candlestick in efficient |
| 387 | 01:09:09 --> 01:09:20 | delivery and repricing for that range between this candles low, and this candles high would be seen with candlesticks that go down in that same specific range |
| 388 | 01:09:20 --> 01:09:28 | that's highlighted in orange. Once we got above it, what did it do? It traded down to the low of it. And then what happened? Oh, we got some mysterious |
| 389 | 01:09:28 --> 01:09:38 | movement to the higher side. It ran into the buy side. Did it stop there? No, it ran right to the level I told you it would reach for. Okay, is that hindsight, |
| 390 | 01:09:38 --> 01:09:46 | folks? Is that hindsight because this is the logic that I use every single time I'm making executions. Sometimes they don't pan out, I get stopped out my entire |
| 391 | 01:09:46 --> 01:09:57 | move is is isn't given to me. Sometimes I enter with a pyramid of entry. And I build in and I absorb a little bit more drawdown in the trade that at the time I |
| 392 | 01:09:57 --> 01:10:04 | didn't want to see that much but still, I have to manage Just like you're going to have to manage every trade you get into, you have to be a manager of that |
| 393 | 01:10:04 --> 01:10:12 | risk. In every trade opens as a losing trade, you have to overcome the initial separation between where you bought and the spread, and you got to overcome the |
| 394 | 01:10:12 --> 01:10:22 | costs of that commission, you're going to pay, getting in and getting out your real time costs. So every one of us are losing traders. And you have to trade |
| 395 | 01:10:22 --> 01:10:30 | your way out of that. So the market does, in fact, do what it trades down into the lower end in there. Now, before I started the livestream, and I gotta get to |
| 396 | 01:10:30 --> 01:10:39 | this card, because then we'll, we'll be at 930, we can watch the opening range. I think I've already explained enough in here to justify why that's an inversion |
| 397 | 01:10:39 --> 01:10:50 | Fair Pay Gap inversion, fair pay gaps are old inefficiencies that are opposed to the trade direction you're in. When you understand this, you will understand how |
| 398 | 01:10:50 --> 01:11:03 | also my market maker models are not like off because this right here is your unicorn, second stage, re accumulation, smooth consolidation, Smart Money |
| 399 | 01:11:03 --> 01:11:19 | reversal, low risk by accumulation, re accumulation second stage. Where's the biggest move right there? Hello. Oh, I love this. Anyway, we're gonna go down |
| 400 | 01:11:19 --> 01:11:30 | into the one minute chart. Okay, so now we have all the details over here on the 15th, we can see the same thing being shown on the five minute chart. Look at |
| 401 | 01:11:30 --> 01:11:41 | the bodies. What are they respecting? midpoint of that inversion fair value. That's a signature. That's a signature. Once we start running, I know that a |
| 402 | 01:11:41 --> 01:11:49 | stop loss if it was down here to be true right below that. And I don't care, I won't worry about it, it could trade down in the lower quadrant, it could trade |
| 403 | 01:11:49 --> 01:11:57 | right down to the lowest level low and underneath that low. And that's why you see me sitting in my trades, and you're you're just waiting, you're waiting |
| 404 | 01:11:57 --> 01:12:07 | tortoises to tick they're getting my stop. If it was Forex, it would never stay like that, because the spread would open up because the brokers do that. Forex |
| 405 | 01:12:07 --> 01:12:18 | is still allowing their brokers to use their own liquidity to the reaching rabbit. You're not in everybody else's pool liquidity. When you're trading |
| 406 | 01:12:18 --> 01:12:27 | futures, everybody has the same high low. That's that's an even playing field. That's why it's a gentleman's market. That's why it's a superior market. It is |
| 407 | 01:12:27 --> 01:12:38 | better than Forex, it is absolutely better than crypto futures. If you're going to trade, this is where you trade. I've proven it time and time again, that if |
| 408 | 01:12:38 --> 01:12:46 | you know what you're doing, just because there is a spread there, they're not going to open the spread out for your one contract for your micro contract, |
| 409 | 01:12:46 --> 01:12:55 | you're gonna get your stop. If you get stopped out in futures, you place your stop in the wrong place, period. That's the truth, folks, that is the truth. |
| 410 | 01:12:55 --> 01:13:08 | Okay. But there is a way of trading and that I've proven now that you can have very, very pristine stock placement and management, and still be able to be in |
| 411 | 01:13:08 --> 01:13:18 | the trade. But when I get stopped out, you see it. And usually it's good that I got stopped down, which is why I pay that stock off to do its job. It's paid |
| 412 | 01:13:18 --> 01:13:29 | good money to protect me from losing larger amounts of money. And but you look at this, as I get stopped out, they beat me. They hurt me, they took something |
| 413 | 01:13:29 --> 01:13:39 | from me, No, you were protected. You are protected. It's insurance. It's insurance, okay, you're paying a tax, a toll to be part of this industry, this |
| 414 | 01:13:39 --> 01:13:49 | game, okay. You're not going to walk through it without having any losses, you're not going to, you're going to do it wrong. So let me get in here and map |
| 415 | 01:13:49 --> 01:14:00 | out what I showed, or what I intend to show you one of the one minute chart. Alright, so here is the woman chart. And right in here, I started off this |
| 416 | 01:14:00 --> 01:14:08 | conversation with rate below these lows, that'd be what sells high liquidity in the market trades down takes that liquidity out at a time when we're in an |
| 417 | 01:14:08 --> 01:14:20 | inversion fair value gap at a time where it would afford me a run up into 10 handles. Okay, so if I get 10 handles there, I don't need to have the lowest low |
| 418 | 01:14:20 --> 01:14:25 | and I want you to have the highest high. So if I know it can likely draw up to this price point here |
| 419 | 01:14:32 --> 01:14:45 | that's these relatively equal highs and seen out there. So what is it 7487 Three quarters. That's this level here. 17,004 and 87 three quarters that's that high |
| 420 | 01:14:45 --> 01:14:56 | right there. So if I know can draw to that level. And under these lows here inside of a fair value gap that is now an inversion fair value gap, but this |
| 421 | 01:14:56 --> 01:15:09 | over here in the pertinent timeframe. Then I know this is a potential footing to send us higher. But is it time to make that price run? There like that? No. But |
| 422 | 01:15:09 --> 01:15:19 | can I scalp it and get 10? Points? Yes. And I'll explain what I meant by saying that, just give me a second. We have the market trading below the lows here. I |
| 423 | 01:15:19 --> 01:15:29 | see the market taking us outside, I want to be a buyer. But I saw price on a one minute chart saying, Okay, I can't, I can't get the lowest low, but I'm gonna |
| 424 | 01:15:29 --> 01:15:41 | try to get as much as I can. Because I do believe we're gonna go higher, at least 10 handles. What is this separation rate here? Between this candles low in |
| 425 | 01:15:41 --> 01:15:57 | this candles high, if I'm bullish, it's a fair value get right. What kind of fair value got inversion, fair value go. Watch. Right here, too. There. You see |
| 426 | 01:15:57 --> 01:16:09 | that. So in here, we're seeing price drop down, the market runs up. And we have a down close candle. And we have market trading down into that. So we have |
| 427 | 01:16:09 --> 01:16:18 | several factors here that are building on this potentially being a short term term. And then price running higher for 10 handles, it's all you need. Well |
| 428 | 01:16:24 --> 01:16:37 | there's a trade in my first entry right there was inside that inversion fair value got right there. See that? Then my second entry was right here. As we |
| 429 | 01:16:37 --> 01:16:52 | touched the low of that inversion, fair Vega, my risk was right below that low. Very, very, very small stop. And the take profit was before getting to 88 or 87. |
| 430 | 01:16:52 --> 01:17:00 | Was at some point seven, five was before that, just to get to 10 handles. That's how you start tape reading, you don't do the you don't do the execution tape |
| 431 | 01:17:00 --> 01:17:07 | reading is not pushing a button at all. You're just watching price as it ticks and books price and say, Okay, this is where I'd hypothetically expect price to |
| 432 | 01:17:07 --> 01:17:18 | go higher. And then see if it does that. And you do this for months, without even pushing a demo account entry. You cannot rush this stage. You cannot you |
| 433 | 01:17:18 --> 01:17:31 | cannot rush the stage of seeing price action, behave and performance specific way. Because you're expecting to learn something that is extremely technical. |
| 434 | 01:17:31 --> 01:17:39 | It's very challenging. You're competing against extremely smart people in a market that's rigged in most of you argue me and fight me saying it's not |
| 435 | 01:17:39 --> 01:17:48 | rigged. It's buying and selling pressure. It's price patterns that's moving price. It's depth of market that's controlling this. It's not it is not there is |
| 436 | 01:17:48 --> 01:18:02 | not doing that. Okay. It's not. Now, this is not the time for the run for the day. That's the reason why I only wanted to use 10 handles. What time the Dave? |
| 437 | 01:18:03 --> 01:18:18 | What time will the market run algorithmically? For the note taking folks, the ones that are really taking it serious learn macros in price action, okay, |
| 438 | 01:18:19 --> 01:18:33 | unless we're talking about the last hour between three o'clock and four o'clock and the US markets, okay, the last hour 3pm Eastern Standard Time to 4pm Eastern |
| 439 | 01:18:33 --> 01:18:51 | Standard Time. There are four specific macros in that one hour time frame, every single macro apart from that one is only only 10 minutes till the top of the |
| 440 | 01:18:51 --> 01:19:00 | hour to 10 minutes after the hour. There is a macro and every single hour, there is no 19 minutes after the hour macro. There's no 23 minutes after the hour. |
| 441 | 01:19:01 --> 01:19:08 | Listen, folks, I understand everybody wants to have some kind of marketing ploy, some kind of gimmick to draw attention to themselves. But if you're saying |
| 442 | 01:19:08 --> 01:19:20 | there's a macro there you are BS saying you're lying. You are lying. Okay? A macro only exists 10 minutes before the top of the hour. That means in this |
| 443 | 01:19:20 --> 01:19:34 | case, what time is this? What time is every day? It's 751. Okay, that's nine minutes before the hour of tennis. I'm sorry, eight o'clock in the morning. So |
| 444 | 01:19:34 --> 01:19:53 | if we take a rectangle here, and you go to 750 to 810. That is the macro. See that? What did the market do? Were bullish? Where's the buy side here? Because |
| 445 | 01:19:53 --> 01:20:00 | it stops right where it did over here on the 50 minute timeframe to that's this candlestick right here that candlesticks high on the 15 minute timeframe. Is |
| 446 | 01:20:00 --> 01:20:12 | that individual one minute candle right there. See that? So what does it do? It drops down at 751. What is it doing? It's dropping down to take the liquidity |
| 447 | 01:20:12 --> 01:20:24 | out here on that low to do what to start spooling where to clear the liquidity above here. Sorry, folks, you can't talk about being algorithmic. If you don't |
| 448 | 01:20:24 --> 01:20:37 | know you're talking about, okay, you can add the word to anything you want. Algorithmic cameltoe, pattern algorithmic, cloudy skies, pattern, whatever, just |
| 449 | 01:20:37 --> 01:20:47 | because you add algorithmic to the name of something doesn't make it algorithmic, okay, the markets are doing something entirely different or |
| 450 | 01:20:47 --> 01:20:55 | decoupled from what retail is looking for. That's why none of this stuff is in retail books. It's why it's not a replication or renaming with anything that's |
| 451 | 01:20:55 --> 01:21:12 | ever existed before. So when we see this, I shouldn't have that color. Because that's not what that should look like, we'll do this. And no point because it's |
| 452 | 01:21:12 --> 01:21:34 | not measuring anything. So you can eat trading futures or Forex. With these macros, okay, so it's not limited to any one particular asset class. Inside, |
| 453 | 01:21:36 --> 01:21:46 | right, and what you want to do is, when you're tape reading, you want to spend the majority of time focusing on what price is doing 10 minutes before the top |
| 454 | 01:21:46 --> 01:21:57 | of the hour to 10 minutes after, okay, what happens is, is the price engine that is the algorithm, many times will spool Okay, during these times, it will run to |
| 455 | 01:21:57 --> 01:22:06 | where the stops are, or it will run to where the inefficiencies are. And what I mean by that inefficiencies are gaps, whether they're up close gaps are down |
| 456 | 01:22:06 --> 01:22:17 | close gaps, one single candle moving in one direction. That's an inefficiency. This will be in talking about showing here. So this is the algorithmic price |
| 457 | 01:22:17 --> 01:22:26 | run. This is just the run of the mill scout. Which one would you rather be a part of? If you're trying to buy on a day like this, and it's bullish, and |
| 458 | 01:22:26 --> 01:22:34 | you're aiming for the levels I was outlining here, when we first started our live stream? Which one would you rather be a participant in some random price |
| 459 | 01:22:34 --> 01:22:48 | only entry versus a very specific, very specific algorithmic advantage, where price will absolutely start spoiling and reaching for liquidity based on time |
| 460 | 01:22:48 --> 01:22:58 | first? Clearly, it's not it's not even the competition here. Seriously, look, look at this. Boom, all the way up to the high I told you it would run when we |
| 461 | 01:22:58 --> 01:23:07 | first started screaming. Okay, so there's clearly something totally different here to put you in a different league, you're in a totally different league of |
| 462 | 01:23:07 --> 01:23:17 | trainer, your perception about price action is lightyears ahead of everyone else, when you think like this, because you're in lined or aligned rather, with |
| 463 | 01:23:17 --> 01:23:25 | price, you're in alignment with what the algorithm is likely to do, you're going to read it sometimes wrong. Sometimes I do. Sometimes I you know, I get all bent |
| 464 | 01:23:25 --> 01:23:35 | out of shape and feel like I want to show off and I do something that is a little too, too beyond the scope of what the structure at the time is trading |
| 465 | 01:23:35 --> 01:23:44 | in. Sometimes I'll do that. But when it does this here, then we can go back into, okay, what are we looking for, if we miss this move? Well, what's this |
| 466 | 01:23:44 --> 01:23:55 | low, we take the executions off real quick. And we'll go right into tape reading the opening range, we have a low, high, lower low that makes this up close |
| 467 | 01:23:55 --> 01:23:56 | candle a breaker. |
| 468 | 01:24:03 --> 01:24:11 | I don't draw all this stuff on my chart. But you should, because it'll help you frame everything. And if you're back testing, this is what you want to annotate |
| 469 | 01:24:11 --> 01:24:19 | on your chart, you won't have all these types of things on your chart, because it helps you identify it and remember visually, what these things look like in |
| 470 | 01:24:19 --> 01:24:26 | the market trades down here. And also what is it doing here as it trades down into that bullish breaker there? This is not support resistance because support |
| 471 | 01:24:26 --> 01:24:32 | resistance would have been okay, well it went above here. So it's stopped there and go higher. That's how I lost money in the 90s because I thought it was so |
| 472 | 01:24:32 --> 01:24:40 | easy that support resistance is going to be the you know the be all end all and it wasn't I lost a lot of money trying to do that stuff. And it's the entire |
| 473 | 01:24:40 --> 01:24:49 | range of that closed candle. The highest up close candle is your major breaker. In this case, it's not even trading down to the low, but what is it doing? In |
| 474 | 01:24:49 --> 01:24:59 | addition to that, you see this that right there is a nesting of two PD arrays |
| 475 | 01:25:05 --> 01:25:16 | So this is an old buy seminar sells on an efficiency fair that you got that was used right here. And it went up. But did it rally above that high here. Since |
| 476 | 01:25:16 --> 01:25:26 | this movement here, no, it didn't. It's consolidating. So it drops back down to it here, and you're still inside that breaker. So you have to afford, if you're |
| 477 | 01:25:26 --> 01:25:37 | trading long, your stock can't, can't be so trailed up to get stopped out prematurely. So that's all factors of how I would measure where I would move my |
| 478 | 01:25:37 --> 01:25:43 | stocks. So if I was going long down in here, if I went in and bought this immediate rebalance, which is the open trading down immediately going back to |
| 479 | 01:25:43 --> 01:25:51 | this candles high, that is extremely strong. And I'm not making that up for the purpose of being here live in it had already happened. Go back to where I was |
| 480 | 01:25:51 --> 01:26:01 | talking and teaching, you need it rebalances. They are the bee's knees for entries, if you can get in, or if you're supporting a trade with a stop loss |
| 481 | 01:26:01 --> 01:26:10 | below a immediate rebalance, and your targets or liquidity hasn't been traded to the market is absolutely not going to your stop loss. And you heard exactly what |
| 482 | 01:26:10 --> 01:26:19 | I just said, That's not me exaggerating, don't take my word for it. Look at my examples. When I'm executing, go back and see if there's ever a immediate |
| 483 | 01:26:19 --> 01:26:26 | rebalance. my stop loss is just above that, or below that in relative terms to the direction of the trade. This is logic that I keep using all the time that |
| 484 | 01:26:26 --> 01:26:39 | repeats over and over and over again. So anyway, that's the framework. This right here is all I'm going to be doing here in Robins, I am not going to need |
| 485 | 01:26:39 --> 01:26:48 | this. If I did this nine weeks, I'm winning. And nobody's ever gonna come close to me. But I want to spread it out over the whole duration of the year. I'm |
| 486 | 01:26:48 --> 01:27:01 | coming in real slow. And my hope program is every single month, I'm going to be going in there doing bass hits, because if I go out there and I smash it out the |
| 487 | 01:27:01 --> 01:27:11 | park dealing with everything with with real Enigma, not what's being passed around on internet ignorant. If I ran and Nygma on Robins, literally I would |
| 488 | 01:27:11 --> 01:27:23 | triple Larry Williams in three months, literally. And that's the truth. But I want to prove consistency, I want to prove base hits are enough, everybody else |
| 489 | 01:27:23 --> 01:27:32 | is gonna go out there and try to swing for the fences. And that's going to do them in small base hits. In The heavy lifting will be done by compound interest |
| 490 | 01:27:32 --> 01:27:42 | with money management, I don't need to make a bigger trade than this. I don't need to do that. I don't need to do 20 To 150 to one five to one. I don't need |
| 491 | 01:27:42 --> 01:27:56 | that. These types of trades happen all day long. These trades only happen at certain times of the day. But they repeat certain times a day. So with that, I'm |
| 492 | 01:27:56 --> 01:28:04 | going to take about two minutes go wet my whistle get a drink this is the bathroom break and we'll be back here in a minute or two for the opening bell. |
| 493 | 01:29:58 --> 01:30:21 | Alright folks, To speak to how many people are joining us here today. So it's like 13,000. I'm surprised on how many actually left. Alright, so we are just |
| 494 | 01:30:21 --> 01:30:38 | about 30 seconds or so away from opening bell. And I want to magnify this chart here. And we will look at the difference between the regular session and where |
| 495 | 01:30:38 --> 01:30:50 | we are right now. So here's where the opening range settlement price is down here. And we're going to watch where we open up here in about two seconds. So |
| 496 | 01:30:50 --> 01:31:02 | way up here, you see that we have already moved the great deal up. Now that gap is going to be a draw there, it's going to want to go back down into it, it does |
| 497 | 01:31:02 --> 01:31:15 | not need to go back down to where we settled that yesterday. But this initial run here, that reaching for attempt to close in the gap, that's usually what you |
| 498 | 01:31:15 --> 01:31:26 | anticipate doesn't happen to fill the gap always know, most of the time it will make an attempt to do so what I do is I look at where we open up at and where we |
| 499 | 01:31:26 --> 01:31:36 | were selling at the previous day. And I want to get quarters of that. So where are we open to where we settled that previous day. So what does that do? It |
| 500 | 01:31:36 --> 01:31:45 | gives me an upper quadrant, the midpoint, so it'll be like a midpoint closure, or mid gap close, then we have three quarters which is delivered to here. On |
| 501 | 01:31:45 --> 01:31:53 | bullish days, it can do this very thing here, you can go down to the lower quarter, and leave that remaining portion open, and traders that want to see a |
| 502 | 01:31:53 --> 01:32:04 | gap closure, they'll fight real hard to get down there. Or go short or try to try to reach for that. What I like to do is I let them try to do that. I'm not |
| 503 | 01:32:04 --> 01:32:10 | trying to appease them, I'm not trying to outperform them. But what I'm interested in, does it have a willingness to get down here and close that |
| 504 | 01:32:10 --> 01:32:18 | because if it doesn't close this gap, and starts to rally, that to me tells me that this is so strong and bullish that it's not even interested in going down |
| 505 | 01:32:18 --> 01:32:28 | here and re closing or closing in this inefficiency that's here, which is a real gap. There's no trading between these two price points. Based on the difference |
| 506 | 01:32:28 --> 01:32:38 | between where we closed yesterday, here the settlement price to here. scenario there we that we traded down into it there. So when I'm watching price, and when |
| 507 | 01:32:38 --> 01:32:46 | you see me do my x executions, if I'm trading right at the 930 opening bell, because I have monitors all in front of me my other screens, you don't see me |
| 508 | 01:32:46 --> 01:32:56 | doing this, but that's exactly what I'm doing. I'm I'm getting the difference in where we opened up at and where we settled that. Okay, so now this is done. But |
| 509 | 01:32:56 --> 01:33:05 | that gap can act as resistance, meaning that this line here if we trade back up to it, you can act as resistance and then send us lower. That's that's the |
| 510 | 01:33:05 --> 01:33:16 | that's the the the length of importance that I place on it. And any one of these quadrant levels if it retraces to, I would treat that same idea with it, it can |
| 511 | 01:33:16 --> 01:33:35 | act as a means of repelling price. So let's go back to electronic trading hours you can see that price run here so we're back down inside of that initial 15 |
| 512 | 01:33:35 --> 01:33:55 | minute by Sanibel sell sign in efficiency sellside is right below here now. So that will be the draw on liquidity there. So fast run. So this gap to its |
| 513 | 01:33:55 --> 01:33:59 | midpoint rating here that can act as a point of resistance |
| 514 | 01:34:06 --> 01:34:15 | and while tape reading, you're not trying to do any executions. If there's a setup, I will push the button in front of you. But tape reading is where you're |
| 515 | 01:34:15 --> 01:34:23 | literally looking at price and you're just watching and observing it be taking mental note. Say okay, this is what I believe that should do next where it |
| 516 | 01:34:23 --> 01:34:35 | should gravitate to my eyes right here. I want to see where we close with this candle. If we close and leave that there do we trade up into it? |
| 517 | 01:34:52 --> 01:35:06 | I have lots of screens and when I'm executing. I have charts that have these measurements on them but the chart on trade Enough has nothing okay, you see |
| 518 | 01:35:06 --> 01:35:22 | this area right in here that right there is your first imbalance inside of the opening range, huge, huge importance is placed on that. Okay? Many times you'll |
| 519 | 01:35:22 --> 01:35:33 | find that the day if it gravitates above and below it, it will use that first imbalance a lot for several trades, you can end up becoming a point at which it |
| 520 | 01:35:33 --> 01:35:43 | turns to the range bullish or bearish. But the very first inefficiency of the day, I like to use that there's one right in here. But I don't like that one |
| 521 | 01:35:43 --> 01:35:53 | here, because it's a little too small. And it's inside. Also that old imbalance, that shaded green area here. I like that there's nothing here that aligns with |
| 522 | 01:35:53 --> 01:36:05 | anything else. So there's really no nesting aspect to it. So I'm watching price, I want to see if we can reach back up into this area here. It's a really nice |
| 523 | 01:36:05 --> 01:36:06 | price run. |
| 524 | 01:36:21 --> 01:36:33 | So I want you to think about where it ran to a clear dose stops above that 15 minute timeframe. Hi. We were looking at the beginning of the stream right here. |
| 525 | 01:36:34 --> 01:36:47 | Now we've taken out sellside. Below the low this morning at the London lows. Now I want to see how we trade at this imbalance. Because it could do this it could |
| 526 | 01:36:47 --> 01:37:02 | trade up through it. Can it come back down? And what would that become that? Would that become inversion fair value does it need not create a new higher high |
| 527 | 01:37:02 --> 01:37:13 | than it's formed here at 840. We don't we don't need we don't need that. But it's looking for periods at which we can anticipate a turning a price run that's |
| 528 | 01:37:13 --> 01:37:28 | obvious that's going to inefficiency or liquidity. I'm looking at still that longer term. I don't want to fight that bias being new bullish. So yes, we've |
| 529 | 01:37:28 --> 01:37:37 | seen it take out that low on the 15 minute chart here and you can see it also in the five minute there. That's what this level is here. This line right there I'm |
| 530 | 01:37:37 --> 01:37:52 | going to darken up and make it the black in Boulder Alright, so now we're back into that gap right there now does it come back now in and treat that as an |
| 531 | 01:37:52 --> 01:37:53 | inversion for Vega? |
| 532 | 01:38:13 --> 01:38:27 | This inefficiency on the 15 minute time frame here, it's an orange the inversion of your Vega. I'm extending that over here and I'll take the quadrants off that |
| 533 | 01:38:28 --> 01:38:30 | other stuff that cleans it up a little bit |
| 534 | 01:38:55 --> 01:39:01 | close candle fear of a potential inversion Faegre. |
| 535 | 01:39:25 --> 01:39:32 | Doesn't have the willingness to draw up into that 50 minute version of your Vega and does it also get through that and then treat it as support because these |
| 536 | 01:39:32 --> 01:39:38 | highs right here we too clean too smooth. So what does that mean by side wrists just above that |
| 537 | 01:40:03 --> 01:40:15 | All the stuff you see me do in my trade executions, I'm annotating it. Al Brooks mentioned in one of his videos I looked at yesterday saying that one minute |
| 538 | 01:40:15 --> 01:40:27 | chart moves too fast, you can read it, and anticipate, you know, whatever. So we went down into the inversion, I'm sorry, to the old gap that's over here. Last |
| 539 | 01:40:27 --> 01:40:36 | Annabelle sauce on efficiency, we traded above it here, came back down and touched it to that. And now does it reach up into that inefficiency on the 50 |
| 540 | 01:40:36 --> 01:40:45 | Min timeframe. So you're not going to learn that from a chapter in a book that I'm writing? Okay, you have to, you have to see it over live price action. And |
| 541 | 01:40:45 --> 01:40:53 | that's the point of why I share my execution videos, because I want you to go through the charts and study. See what those factors were at the time when I was |
| 542 | 01:40:53 --> 01:41:03 | doing execution? Or when I moved my stop loss, or the things that I didn't execute on? Yeah, I get a lot of questions like that in my comment section. You |
| 543 | 01:41:03 --> 01:41:12 | know, why didn't you take this trade or that trade? Why didn't you use this candle that candle? Because the flexibility that's offered and afforded to every |
| 544 | 01:41:12 --> 01:41:22 | one of us, my models are not always going to be germane to what you anticipate expected price action. Okay, so we traded up into their version fair value gap. |
| 545 | 01:41:22 --> 01:41:29 | So look, what we did, we went down, took the sell side. And then we rallied up in I said, Watch the inversion fair value gap. It trades above it trades back |
| 546 | 01:41:29 --> 01:41:37 | down to the midpoint you see that. And then I said, we want to see if it expands up into the inversion fair value gap here, trades up into here, did it get all |
| 547 | 01:41:37 --> 01:41:49 | the way to the high, but nobody got to the midpoint. So now it can range between both of these inversion fair value gaps. Until the 10 o'clock news comes out, |
| 548 | 01:41:49 --> 01:42:01 | which is immediate impact news driver. Ultimately, my interest lies right in here. I want to see how we trade after we clean this up, if at all, if it fails, |
| 549 | 01:42:01 --> 01:42:09 | and just starts to fall off. You know, I'll mention what I think that means for us at 10 o'clock, right? You know, minutes before 10 o'clock. But right now it's |
| 550 | 01:42:09 --> 01:42:23 | too too early to determine how they're going to use that news. Now, if I was to stop right here today, this in and of itself, is a huge leap in understanding |
| 551 | 01:42:23 --> 01:42:30 | even beyond the scope of what I've shared in the private mentorship lessons that you can watch on YouTube channel. Because we're looking at real life price |
| 552 | 01:42:30 --> 01:42:42 | action, and making emphasis over specific points of price action, and ignoring things that you may have stressed this, these were more paramount issues. And |
| 553 | 01:42:42 --> 01:42:53 | those are the hindrances that you're creating for yourself. And by doing it, the experience that you gain, helps you eliminate all the things that you're making |
| 554 | 01:42:53 --> 01:43:02 | big, important issues right now, they're not trading with real money, trying to get a funded account. That's not important right now, that's the goal. They'll |
| 555 | 01:43:02 --> 01:43:07 | be profitable as a trader. But that's not the goal. Right? Now, if you don't know what you're doing, if you don't know what you're doing in terms of reading |
| 556 | 01:43:07 --> 01:43:20 | price action. That goes without saying it's not going to happen, right? So it takes my wife, she's got the heat up to you. Good grief, I'll be the woman |
| 557 | 01:43:20 --> 01:43:23 | herself. And she cranks up the heat. |
| 558 | 01:43:30 --> 01:43:42 | All right, watch how we trade in here. There's a volume imbalance right there between these two bodies in these candles. Volume imbalance is the weakest of |
| 559 | 01:43:42 --> 01:43:53 | all of my PD arrays. Now, the importance is how we use them. Okay, because there, they allow price to trade through them. But they keep going back to them |
| 560 | 01:43:53 --> 01:44:03 | and utilizing them at a later time. That's obviously you know, to me, it's important because they're like little measuring sticks in terms of the magnitude |
| 561 | 01:44:03 --> 01:44:12 | of a price run, how much strength is behind the price run, if it goes up here and trades into a volume imbalance and then turns to me that is indicating the |
| 562 | 01:44:12 --> 01:44:20 | weakest of all my PDFs raises a stop and stave off higher prices. To me that indicates it's not as bullish as I would like to see the I want to see it trade |
| 563 | 01:44:20 --> 01:44:29 | up to that volume and bounce and go through it. And maybe come back down and touch this candles close or this candles opening and then send it up into the |
| 564 | 01:44:29 --> 01:44:40 | buy side. That's what I'd like to see in this instance here. But they can be traded through multiple times and pass through. But they're like a little |
| 565 | 01:44:40 --> 01:44:49 | measuring stick for the strength of the price run. But they still act as a magnet for prices as well. It can pull price into them really easy. If you're on |
| 566 | 01:44:49 --> 01:45:03 | site. You see how it's offering initial resistance in here in that in that inversion fear breakup is this gap over here. Okay, so I purposely chose this |
| 567 | 01:45:03 --> 01:45:16 | day, because number one, we have a market that's traded at all time highs, it's pulled back, we only have one news driver, it's at 10 o'clock. And we're part of |
| 568 | 01:45:16 --> 01:45:27 | a consolidation here, all this consolidation, this is a very, very challenging market condition. It's not an easy day, an easy day would be where you can |
| 569 | 01:45:27 --> 01:45:34 | clearly see relative equal highs or relative equal lows, and the bias is in line and narrative that it would run for that particular price run. And then you |
| 570 | 01:45:34 --> 01:45:43 | simply wait for the time of day to trade. That's not what we have here today. But this is exactly what you're going to encounter. And if you have been trading |
| 571 | 01:45:43 --> 01:45:50 | for any length of time, you're going to find out that you do most of your trading on the difficult days, because you think that you are going to finally |
| 572 | 01:45:50 --> 01:46:01 | when you push and keep pushing, keep pushing. And in the days that you don't really know what to expect, but you get lucky. You stop. And you end up doing |
| 573 | 01:46:01 --> 01:46:12 | really, really well. If you reverse the logic, and try not to push on a day that if you if you feel confident that it's not easily discernible where price is |
| 574 | 01:46:12 --> 01:46:21 | trying to reach for don't trade. That's an easy thing to identify. As a new trader, it's just about every single day, it's like, because you're nervous, |
| 575 | 01:46:21 --> 01:46:31 | you're worried about oh, I'm gonna like do it wrong. But over time, tape reading, getting a feel for what price is doing, how does it behave? How does it |
| 576 | 01:46:31 --> 01:46:40 | deliver, when you have that, for months, you're gonna see things that tend to repeat over and over again. And that experience, that's the part that I cannot |
| 577 | 01:46:40 --> 01:46:47 | transfer to you, I can lend you my experience and say, Hey, over my shoulder, this is what we're watching, we're observing this, you want to see this or that. |
| 578 | 01:46:48 --> 01:46:56 | That's not you having experience you're experiencing my experience. But once that experience ends, and I turn off the live stream or stop communicating with |
| 579 | 01:46:56 --> 01:47:07 | you, then that void of inexperience comes rushing in, and it causes anxiety, which is the very reason why I've never taught by tethering you to my |
| 580 | 01:47:07 --> 01:47:17 | executions. Because to do that it formulates and forms this bond. That is not, it's not realistic, it's not constructive for you as a trader, because you're |
| 581 | 01:47:17 --> 01:47:27 | going to trade independent, where nobody else is going to influence you. And you need to be willing to assume all that responsibility for the folks are talking |
| 582 | 01:47:27 --> 01:47:36 | about push a button. At 10 o'clock, I want to see what we do with the report. And then whatever inefficiency, or whatever we have at the time, then I will |
| 583 | 01:47:36 --> 01:47:48 | push a button you'll see the executed. But until then, until then we're gonna listen to me talk the the factors of experience that you're going to get, you |
| 584 | 01:47:48 --> 01:47:59 | can't place any value higher than the highest form of value by gaining experience, and you can't discount it, you can't speed it up. And whatever we're |
| 585 | 01:47:59 --> 01:48:07 | doing here watching price action in the early stages of our development, that's still the same thing you're doing between trades. So why are you trying to avoid |
| 586 | 01:48:07 --> 01:48:16 | it, you're going to spend more time between trade executions than you are in a trade. So you might as well warm up to the idea that you're watching candles, |
| 587 | 01:48:16 --> 01:48:27 | paint. And if you hate it, then you're not a trader. You have to be passionate about this. If you're complaining about price, oh, why want to do something, |
| 588 | 01:48:27 --> 01:48:36 | you're not trading, you're not, you will literally roast yourself. If you give enough rope to yourself, you'll hang yourself. Because it'll be your |
| 589 | 01:48:36 --> 01:48:43 | subconscious way of taking yourself out of something you don't really want to be doing. And you'll just say, well, this stuff never works. Nobody makes any |
| 590 | 01:48:43 --> 01:48:54 | money. Everybody's a fraud. When it's just you not being patient, and not knowing what you're doing. And you're expecting to learn how to do it real |
| 591 | 01:48:54 --> 01:49:08 | quick, real fast. I like this potentially running up into that by sight now. You see how it dug into the bodies here and went back down deeper into the old paths |
| 592 | 01:49:08 --> 01:49:18 | Annabelle sauce and efficiency on the 15 minute timeframe. We dug down into the upper upper quadrant of it. And now we're reaching back up. So I like to see it |
| 593 | 01:49:18 --> 01:49:29 | continuously run here. What I'm interested in is do they use the 10 O'Clock News driver to reprice to this area here and then sell off. I'm not saying that's the |
| 594 | 01:49:29 --> 01:49:38 | trade I want. But that's what I'm waiting to see Do they use the 10 o'clock news as a smokescreen to clear this little area up? Maybe bump up above he's relative |
| 595 | 01:49:38 --> 01:49:45 | equal highs are too slow to in my opinion. They run up there and then reject or do they run up and go through. And then we start turning our attention back this |
| 596 | 01:49:45 --> 01:49:56 | old high here on the 15 minute time frame, which is this line here. That's the same line. It's over here on the one minute chart, so when I'm trading on my |
| 597 | 01:49:56 --> 01:50:09 | charts when I'm looking at them mmm and executing on them. I have nothing on them. I do have other monitors that have notes and annotations, I don't have all |
| 598 | 01:50:09 --> 01:50:20 | this stuff drawn out on it. But I'll type something out like, watch this level after this macro or that particular macro. Once this occurs, it's the same thing |
| 599 | 01:50:20 --> 01:50:27 | I would have on my new pack. If I'm out in front of like, right now I'm in my trading office, all my monitors off in front of me, the only thing I'm literally |
| 600 | 01:50:27 --> 01:50:36 | using right now is the laptop, I'm sitting in front of all my other monitor and main system, the hardware, all that stuff is off, there's nothing, there's |
| 601 | 01:50:36 --> 01:50:44 | literally nothing going on there. So I'm forcing myself to read and interpret price action. On one single screen, even though I do have it set up as a |
| 602 | 01:50:44 --> 01:50:59 | template. And this is the timeframes I'm using. Okay. So you know, when you seen me share my trading space, did videos or pictures of it. And in my Twitter |
| 603 | 01:50:59 --> 01:51:08 | spaces, I mentioned that I have a little notepad next to me, the same notations that I would have on specific charts and specific timeframes. That's what I have |
| 604 | 01:51:08 --> 01:51:21 | written on my notepad. Okay, macro times, and targets in price where I want to see price at this level between 950 and 1010. Four, I want to see price reach to |
| 605 | 01:51:21 --> 01:51:36 | this specific inefficiency or failure by 1050 to 1110. So they're like mile markers, it helps me measure the strength of which if I'm bullish, or bearish, |
| 606 | 01:51:36 --> 01:51:46 | it should reach these thresholds in price based on my experience. And then I will use that to determine whether I want to take a trade or not. So it's not |
| 607 | 01:51:46 --> 01:51:54 | like secret recipes on my notepad, if you saw it, it would mean nothing to you, it literally would mean nothing, but that's what I'm writing down. So there's a |
| 608 | 01:51:54 --> 01:52:07 | specific price levels and time, which I want to see them be traded to. That's all it is. Alright, so now we're in that old inversion fair value gap here and I |
| 609 | 01:52:07 --> 01:52:15 | want to see it, trade into this and it may go down to the midpoint of this wick right here, that little wicker there may overlap with that, and then I'm gonna |
| 610 | 01:52:15 --> 01:52:29 | see it expand on and clear this, and maybe, maybe get up into this one here. So if you let me do it like this, this is the real initial draw I'm looking for. |
| 611 | 01:52:30 --> 01:52:38 | But overzealous price run could take us up in here and clean that up a little bit. Because that is also a little gap here. Between this candlesticks low, and |
| 612 | 01:52:38 --> 01:52:49 | that candlesticks high in the buy side. So hopefully, what time we've spent so far together today, you can see that there is a rhyme and reason as to what I |
| 613 | 01:52:49 --> 01:52:58 | look for and what price is going to respond off of. And it's not classic support resistance or harmonic patterns or anything like that. It's not Wycoff it's |
| 614 | 01:52:58 --> 01:53:08 | inefficiencies in liquidity. And I'm thinking I'm framing everything on the basis of the certain time of day that it should behave a certain way. Okay, when |
| 615 | 01:53:08 --> 01:53:20 | prices should start running. For those individuals that have the resources, like, remember, we went above this volume of balance, let me put timelines in |
| 616 | 01:53:20 --> 01:53:31 | here before I go any further. And I mentioned that we can pass through on these |
| 617 | 01:53:33 --> 01:53:48 | because this is the weaker of all the PD arrays that I have in my repertoire, but they still act as alignment. Okay, so that would be labeled for you, you |
| 618 | 01:53:48 --> 01:53:49 | would label that as volume doubt. |
| 619 | 01:53:57 --> 01:54:07 | Okay, so see, I can it can pass above it, pass through it, but it draws price up into it. Now, does it have a willingness to get through it now that we're using |
| 620 | 01:54:07 --> 01:54:15 | the inversion fair value gap here? Does it have a willingness to want to get up into and dig into this liquidity? So far, the only thing we've done is we |
| 621 | 01:54:15 --> 01:54:24 | reached up into this inefficiency, which is the volume of balance. And then we have this inefficiency here. And we annotate this one this sellside amounts by |
| 622 | 01:54:24 --> 01:54:34 | time efficiency, you have to incorporate the volume of balance to not just the high of the candle. And I've mentioned this in passing in previous discussions |
| 623 | 01:54:34 --> 01:54:44 | where I see it it's pertinent. So you've had to have it noted like that, but not that color. So I'm not sure what other use here |
| 624 | 01:54:53 --> 01:55:04 | all right. So we're down into look at the bodies was it respecting The upper half of that inversion favorite you got. So now we're back at the volume and |
| 625 | 01:55:04 --> 01:55:09 | balance, does it expand through and get into here and then dig into this |
| 626 | 01:55:16 --> 01:55:24 | like that accomplishes everything, the last portion of that. So it's out of bounds by 10. Efficiency, and the high. So there's the high side and the little |
| 627 | 01:55:24 --> 01:55:38 | portion of inefficiency residing right in there. So again, back to our analogy, treating price rungs as a if you're bullish, like mountain climbing. Okay, I'm |
| 628 | 01:55:38 --> 01:55:50 | looking at old inefficiencies over here. And planning out where if I, if I see price climbing, and if price is the rock climber, and I'm basically piggybacking |
| 629 | 01:55:50 --> 01:56:01 | that rock climber, I'm going to use what the rock climber would see on the surface of the cliff that he's trying to scale, or she's trying to scale and |
| 630 | 01:56:01 --> 01:56:11 | determine where my footing will be. And none of this has anything to do with Support Resistance. I'm basing it on inefficiencies in price action. That's all |
| 631 | 01:56:11 --> 01:56:21 | that's all I'm doing. Is that complicated? No, not every single one of my PD arrays exist in this price run. There's no breakers in this right? There's no |
| 632 | 01:56:21 --> 01:56:31 | breakers here. But where there are inefficiencies. Remember, I told you that this one here? I wasn't interested in. There's that. And it didn't really do |
| 633 | 01:56:31 --> 01:56:41 | anything at all. That's experience. This most the one I liked, we try you down into it here. We overshot here, that's fine have to go on above it. But look at |
| 634 | 01:56:41 --> 01:56:51 | that, that right there is perfect. That's perfect. You cannot improve on perfection. Price runs up into inversion fair value that you're looking for |
| 635 | 01:56:51 --> 01:56:57 | trades back down. It doesn't even trade to the inversion fair value gap here again, as a support. And when I taught on Twitter and Twitter spaces, I |
| 636 | 01:56:57 --> 01:57:08 | mentioned that when I'm looking at PD arrays that don't even get traded to when they should was that indicate exceedingly bullish in this case. And I said, I |
| 637 | 01:57:08 --> 01:57:15 | like it when he was here. I said, Okay, I think he's gonna go to the emerging fair, Vega. Again, volume and balance and efficiency here. We want to see it |
| 638 | 01:57:15 --> 01:57:21 | expand up and dig into, it looks like they're going to use that 10 O'Clock News, probably to do this very thing here. |
| 639 | 01:57:38 --> 01:57:39 | It's all hindsight. |
| 640 | 01:57:51 --> 01:57:58 | All right, just three minutes to go in that 10 o'clock report comes out. |
| 641 | 01:58:05 --> 01:58:17 | Wonder how many YouTubers are looking at this live stream and took anything against what I used here in the annotations. I don't have a way for you to come |
| 642 | 01:58:17 --> 01:58:31 | back because it's a live stream. But I'll post something my community tab. You guys can reply with that. Let me know. If you did anything based on this stuff, |
| 643 | 01:58:31 --> 01:58:42 | I'm trying not to think about it right now. But I mean, I mentioned the beginning not to use anything I'm saying as it means to get into a trade. But I |
| 644 | 01:58:42 --> 01:58:50 | know, invariably, there's gonna be someone that has done it. And maybe they made some money here this morning. They're all giddy right now, that could change |
| 645 | 01:58:50 --> 01:58:52 | real quick here in a minute. So just be careful. |
| 646 | 01:59:01 --> 01:59:13 | Now, in terms of difficulty, versus a real easy bread and butter type day, this is one of the harder days in trading, because you're trading after a day of |
| 647 | 01:59:14 --> 01:59:24 | reaching into all time highs. And we're in a consolidation, you can see it on the 15 minute timeframe. So you have to reference where your liquidity is this |
| 648 | 01:59:24 --> 01:59:36 | poor liquidity has been taken. This pool of liquidity here has been taken. So where are we We're inside the range that is extremely hard for a new trader to |
| 649 | 01:59:36 --> 01:59:44 | trade in. Because what can you build your confidence on? Where's the draw on liquidity? It's real hard to do that because we've already done what both on |
| 650 | 01:59:44 --> 01:59:55 | side of the 50 minute timeframe buy side and the sell side. So we're inside the middle of the range. So you have to have a great deal of experience or trade |
| 651 | 01:59:55 --> 02:00:05 | with extremely less leverage than you normally would. Because you probably going to be wrong. What's this little gap right here, okay, and there's this down |
| 652 | 02:00:05 --> 02:00:13 | close candle. So there's a little bit of overlap there. You could trade down into that and send us up into that or 10 O'Clock News, they use that to to |
| 653 | 02:00:13 --> 02:00:22 | reprice up to here, and they leave this intact here. I don't know that because everything I just mentioned the buy side taken in the sell side stake and we're |
| 654 | 02:00:22 --> 02:00:31 | inside the middle range so it is a 5050 gun to my head we're going higher to clear to buy sides up. And that's about in 20 seconds now, news will hit |
| 655 | 02:00:45 --> 02:00:54 | on easy days where it's all one sided, that you know the daily range is likely to expand to a direction that you derived off of a weekly chart everything I've |
| 656 | 02:00:54 --> 02:01:03 | described online video chat library on the YouTube channel. Trains easy it's using all these types of things as outlined here and getting in and just letting |
| 657 | 02:01:03 --> 02:01:10 | it go. Here today, it may look a little bit harder okay 10 o'clock news should be impacting the market |
| 658 | 02:01:38 --> 02:01:52 | just realized I don't remember if I turn the microphone back or what it looks like it's embarrassing. I did that with a video thing for my sub my other |
| 659 | 02:01:52 --> 02:02:08 | project talks two times for two hours in the last week and didn't have the microphone. Alright, see we are in a low high lower low up close candle I'm |
| 660 | 02:02:08 --> 02:02:10 | watching price out behaves in here because it potential breaker. |
| 661 | 02:02:25 --> 02:02:33 | See how gnarly prices right now, let me let me pick a different word because someone outside the United States may not know what that means. Do you see how |
| 662 | 02:02:35 --> 02:02:44 | messy or sloppy price action is now versus where it ran right here at the opening. And then we started climbing up everything seemed pretty obvious. Now |
| 663 | 02:02:44 --> 02:02:54 | we're in some really gnarly, really choppy, really uncertain, could go either way, direction, type of price action. As a new trader, you're gonna find that |
| 664 | 02:02:54 --> 02:03:02 | you're going to see these types of days and feel like they're challenges. And you want to be right in it because you feel subconsciously, you don't know what |
| 665 | 02:03:02 --> 02:03:13 | it's going to do. But you want to go in and push a button and find out. And when you get it right. The foolishness is to attribute that as skill. I did that when |
| 666 | 02:03:13 --> 02:03:23 | I was in my 20s. When I see this price action here, I see this as this is uncertain. And while it's my intention, I want to push a button I intend to do |
| 667 | 02:03:23 --> 02:03:31 | so should it present itself. If I don't, I will live stream tomorrow and do it in front of you. But I have to force myself to follow my logic, I don't want to |
| 668 | 02:03:31 --> 02:03:46 | just simply push the button because it's something to do. So I'm watching this in here. And I think that it's as I mentioned moments ago, right there in it now |
| 669 | 02:03:54 --> 02:04:02 | now if we come back up into this inverted Faraday cup, or just touch the bottom of it, it can go about midpoint of it. Why just the midpoint because look how |
| 670 | 02:04:02 --> 02:04:12 | many times we've worked down into it on the upper half of it. And now we moved away and below it now coming back up, it's allowing or I would allow rather |
| 671 | 02:04:12 --> 02:04:22 | price action to get up into the midpoint of that and that will be completely permissible. Something that wouldn't upset me if if I wanted to go short. And |
| 672 | 02:04:22 --> 02:04:31 | that's what I'm looking for. I'm looking to see if they use all this built up in here to move lower and then attack that. Well. If we go a little bit luckier I |
| 673 | 02:04:31 --> 02:04:37 | think we might move a little bit lower than just breaking that low. |
| 674 | 02:05:06 --> 02:05:15 | Alright you see where the bodies closed in here and where this one opened up at right inside this gap and we have that down close candle I mentioned this is |
| 675 | 02:05:15 --> 02:05:16 | waterblock |
| 676 | 02:05:38 --> 02:05:49 | it literally can go either direction right here that's the definition of low probability high probability is where you can see everything is leaning towards |
| 677 | 02:05:49 --> 02:05:54 | a specific point of liquidity by side or sell side or an inefficiency above or below the marketplace |
| 678 | 02:06:03 --> 02:06:13 | Okay, let me back up in version five I got halfway point and rejected that mentioned that that worked already the upper half here and outside of it can |
| 679 | 02:06:13 --> 02:06:26 | read back up to the midpoint here and move down to a lower low nothing in here except for that would have walked is of any significance to me. So I don't have |
| 680 | 02:06:26 --> 02:06:30 | anything yet but I'll stay with you until I do |
| 681 | 02:06:35 --> 02:06:48 | alright, see this don't close candle here. Here for that essentially is right there. So I'm watching how it behaves here. The next candle I want to see does |
| 682 | 02:06:48 --> 02:06:51 | it open the trade down to half of that and then rally up |
| 683 | 02:07:06 --> 02:07:18 | gun to my head I want to stick to the all time highs then traded to and I don't want to try to pick the top there. So I'm really looking to something as a long |
| 684 | 02:07:18 --> 02:07:23 | but I'm being cautious because it really is if you knew it could go either way |
| 685 | 02:07:34 --> 02:07:47 | and looking back at what we've been doing for the last 90 minutes or so either side of the marketplace would be frustrated right now. Shorts wouldn't be |
| 686 | 02:07:47 --> 02:07:56 | satisfied and Long's wouldn't be satisfied. So that's also one of the things I look at when I'm watching price I'm trying to weigh out what the sentiment would |
| 687 | 02:07:56 --> 02:08:04 | be for long holders right now. What would be the sentiment for short holders right now? Would they be feeling confident right now will they feel over |
| 688 | 02:08:04 --> 02:08:05 | confident? |
| 689 | 02:08:45 --> 02:08:46 | lowpass |
| 690 | 02:09:11 --> 02:09:12 | really really slow |
| 691 | 02:09:17 --> 02:09:26 | see I was going to buy it when it was right here because it went down into our saying that mean threshold would be already I'm glad that I didn't do that |
| 692 | 02:09:26 --> 02:09:36 | because this should have on this candle we should have already cleared this high and I will be not happy about that right there about what they need more |
| 693 | 02:09:43 --> 02:09:46 | experience there's no substitute for it |
| 694 | 02:09:54 --> 02:09:57 | take it once it goes back down in that range in here. |
| 695 | 02:10:05 --> 02:10:17 | Finance short. magnify this real quick. Here's the five minute chart. Here's the buy side initially that we were talking about going to eventually this high |
| 696 | 02:10:19 --> 02:10:31 | right there, we traded two. So, on the five minute chart we have came back up into this area here, all of the sell side and balanced by side and efficiency |
| 697 | 02:10:31 --> 02:10:41 | has been repriced here, look at the bodies, we traded back up into here, and we whipped through it a little bit. Okay, my higher timeframe bias says, don't try |
| 698 | 02:10:41 --> 02:10:50 | to pick a top, they've already ran by side here and really sent it lower and took out the sell side here. So we're inside the middle of the range. If you |
| 699 | 02:10:50 --> 02:11:03 | look at the fit here, here to hear, here's 50%, we're just hanging around meandering around midpoint of that range from the high to the low. Whenever |
| 700 | 02:11:03 --> 02:11:13 | you're like that, and both sides of the marketplace have been taken on the 15 minute time frame, both the buy stops up here, and the cell stops below over |
| 701 | 02:11:13 --> 02:11:24 | here. We take this off among the session. So right below that low that was cell stops, and the right back in the middle. Okay, I can promise you, if you do most |
| 702 | 02:11:24 --> 02:11:32 | of your trades right here, after things like that, you're gonna have the lowest strike rate, you're gonna be frustrated, gonna be losing money. And it's going |
| 703 | 02:11:32 --> 02:11:41 | to cause you to want to go back in right away and try to get it back. Versus trading at range extremes. Once the liquidity is taken in right before you get |
| 704 | 02:11:41 --> 02:11:52 | back to the middle. Or from here, if we get back to this low to the high that midpoint. That's trading in the middle of the range that is so hard to do |
| 705 | 02:11:52 --> 02:12:02 | consistently. It's so hard to do it. Even myself, I would frustrate myself if I pushed real hard in this condition. And I did that to myself as a wise young |
| 706 | 02:12:02 --> 02:12:14 | man. Alright, damn close candle inversion February gap, give it a go. It's gonna touch it |
| 707 | 02:12:22 --> 02:12:30 | it's why I got it down the one contract here. Because if I get stopped out, it won't do harm to what will be the results of today. And |
| 708 | 02:12:38 --> 02:12:43 | don't let this keeps |
| 709 | 02:12:52 --> 02:12:59 | now from this candle is high and where we have on this low. This is usually where I go in and out buy it with a limit order |
| 710 | 02:13:12 --> 02:13:22 | after the stop loss just below consequent encroachment of this candlesticks wick aim for that boss irate there |
| 711 | 02:13:31 --> 02:13:42 | so again, the probabilities are 5050 here, those are inside that range. I'm sticking to the narrative of the higher timeframe, I want to see that higher |
| 712 | 02:13:42 --> 02:13:51 | timeframe daily chart move higher. And I'm avoiding trying to go against that grain. I'm not trying to predict the top of the marketplace. I'm not trying to |
| 713 | 02:13:52 --> 02:14:02 | impose my will. I've looked at it here I've watched it and it has not shown a willingness to want to go lower sharply and it just keeps pressing against |
| 714 | 02:14:02 --> 02:14:11 | anyone that would have been trying to go short. So the stop loss would have to be below the inversion fair value gap because right before we had this high |
| 715 | 02:14:11 --> 02:14:18 | taken out, it's this candlesticks wick so about half of that right here at me zoom, show you what I'm referring to |
| 716 | 02:14:24 --> 02:14:26 | alright, we'll take the cryogenics off |
| 717 | 02:14:33 --> 02:14:40 | that's right there. My stop would have to be below that. So you can come back down into this sheet area and move higher or come down and stop me out either |
| 718 | 02:14:40 --> 02:14:42 | one makes no difference to me |
| 719 | 02:14:47 --> 02:14:49 | it's still chopping, moving around in the range. |
| 720 | 02:15:06 --> 02:15:17 | Now there's some times when I'm taking trades, if it is indecisive, and I feel confident that it's going to be one sided, where the market will move in one |
| 721 | 02:15:17 --> 02:15:30 | direction that's bullish or bearish, whatever. I will use one contract to go in and see what it feels like to be in that trade. And does it reward me |
| 722 | 02:15:30 --> 02:15:39 | immediately once I get in? Or is it immediate pressure when I get into it, like not selling pressure buying pressure, but physical, like does it does it induce |
| 723 | 02:15:39 --> 02:15:51 | uncomfort discomfort in me, the better trades will reward you immediately, they'll immediately reward you, and put you on side and start delivering in your |
| 724 | 02:15:51 --> 02:16:02 | favor. The trades that are not where you're on side usually are ones that really make a run against you as soon as you get in. And then the problem with that is |
| 725 | 02:16:02 --> 02:16:10 | if you're a new trader, or if you're inexperienced, you'll feel that and then you'll fight through it, and you'll ignore it, you'll discount it and say, you |
| 726 | 02:16:10 --> 02:16:18 | know, I'm not, I'm not going to let go this trade, I'm going to hold on to it hold on to it, and that losing trade becomes larger. And if you have a stop |
| 727 | 02:16:18 --> 02:16:29 | loss, you end up moving it further away. I did all that stuff when I was 20 years old, I did all those things, or didn't use a stop loss at all. And when |
| 728 | 02:16:29 --> 02:16:36 | you're on the right side of the marketplace, it'll move immediately in your favor, in this instance, because I've mapped out what we did on that 15 minute |
| 729 | 02:16:36 --> 02:16:46 | timeframe and explained the difficulty of where we are. So to communicate, number one, the difficulty of trading in the middle of the range to even if this |
| 730 | 02:16:46 --> 02:16:57 | pans out, I don't want you to feel inspired to trade in this type of condition. Don't do this, because you'll be met with the adversities that's plaguing it |
| 731 | 02:16:57 --> 02:16:58 | middle of the range type of trade. |
| 732 | 02:17:05 --> 02:17:21 | Now, what is the market done in the last 25 minutes? Nothing was 10 contracts on 10 funded accounts. The best way of trading today no. Makes you stop getting |
| 733 | 02:17:21 --> 02:17:32 | your thing there it is, oh he took a loss. One contract in a market environment that has already explained to you is difficult. Sitting in this environment like |
| 734 | 02:17:32 --> 02:17:41 | this, you have to determine where are they more inclined to take, are they going to go higher or they're going to go lower? These are two obvious levels I see |
| 735 | 02:17:41 --> 02:17:55 | still. While we're in the middle, it can go either direction 5050 as a younger man, I would get mad and I would go in there and trade with the same or even |
| 736 | 02:17:55 --> 02:17:59 | more contracts trying to get my money back from the bond market. |
| 737 | 02:18:37 --> 02:18:41 | You can hear me wait just for a second and get another bottle of water |
| 738 | 02:20:03 --> 02:20:14 | See that gap right here? I'd like to see this stay open this is the important conversation or breakaway gaps are coming into the conversation I'd like to see |
| 739 | 02:20:14 --> 02:20:29 | it stay open why because we're in consolidation it gapped that fair value gap that would be if it trades right back to it that completely collapses the idea |
| 740 | 02:20:29 --> 02:20:46 | of being now is that immediate rebounds meaning rebounds and potential breakaway gaps there is a time between one or the other when this candle close if it would |
| 741 | 02:20:46 --> 02:20:54 | have closed it and left as a gap and how to treat it and label it as a break we got this so far I want to see does it send it lower? |
| 742 | 02:21:25 --> 02:21:26 | Treatment and middle |
| 743 | 02:21:40 --> 02:21:45 | so I'm gonna go here real quick and go to a 60 minute chart |
| 744 | 02:22:17 --> 02:22:19 | carefully on that wick is about ready here |
| 745 | 02:22:31 --> 02:22:46 | if we were to lose ground here and take out that low that that cap right here that would be a nice draw but it might not be in the cards here |
| 746 | 02:23:09 --> 02:23:30 | alright so we are in the old 50 minute bar turned ourselves on efficiency over here right there and inside this inversion fear right if these are to fail and |
| 747 | 02:23:30 --> 02:23:43 | price comes back up into it then I would entertain the idea of revisiting that well. I'm looking to see if it more to offer willingness to want to rally there. |
| 748 | 02:24:45 --> 02:24:55 | Okay, right at that lower here. If you can trade back up to that. I'll try a short there and aim for a run on the liquidity |
| 749 | 02:25:00 --> 02:25:01 | Don't copy me |
| 750 | 02:25:14 --> 02:25:15 | may have missed it? |
| 751 | 02:27:48 --> 02:27:54 | One contract trading it's boring but that's how you start |
| 752 | 02:28:01 --> 02:28:10 | I promise you when you first start trading one contract is going to feel like a stranglehold of Czechia any movement against you like Man Why can't this work |
| 753 | 02:28:10 --> 02:28:11 | working at that work |
| 754 | 02:28:17 --> 02:28:31 | there you go so I can I'm sitting here thinking how many of you are putting stuff out there the 15,000 are watching oh it's 15,000 stop losses are doing |
| 755 | 02:28:31 --> 02:28:32 | let's run right through that |
| 756 | 02:28:55 --> 02:29:01 | alright so now we clean this off here take this off here |
| 757 | 02:29:06 --> 02:29:23 | from here to here with this Washington book to that okay the buy side here sell side below these lows down into inefficiency or gap in here institutional report |
| 758 | 02:29:23 --> 02:29:25 | entry drill if we can Google that well |
| 759 | 02:29:39 --> 02:29:47 | okay, that's that we're still $1,448 simulated profit on the day. |
| 760 | 02:30:00 --> 02:30:11 | Alright, so now look at the 15 minute time frame over here we have sellside taken there, we came down try to make a password that didn't reach any further |
| 761 | 02:30:11 --> 02:30:24 | than this imbalance here. And now we have this this imbalance and we have this small one right here with buyside that has not been tagged here or here and |
| 762 | 02:30:24 --> 02:30:29 | there's BizStats wrestling repo here one two |
| 763 | 02:30:37 --> 02:30:51 | I will take this one because it's it's the old relatively was Alright, so now look, we have consolidation. We dropped down Smart Money reversal, low risk by |
| 764 | 02:30:51 --> 02:31:01 | one against my trade. And now we have a close candle here which will be treated as a bearish order block if it was bearish. Did it respect that millet trade |
| 765 | 02:31:01 --> 02:31:13 | through it? So now watch this up close candle over here they're in this shaded this way. |
| 766 | 02:35:42 --> 02:35:54 | executed on the basis of we dropped lower we came back into five minute inefficiency rebalanced it failed several times going higher broke lower using |
| 767 | 02:35:54 --> 02:36:02 | this up close candle trying to see if it will work towards this lower here whether it goes below or not it's irrelevant |
| 768 | 02:36:18 --> 02:36:25 | instead of buying and balance they're still stuck right in the middle of that range. |
| 769 | 02:37:22 --> 02:37:34 | Net takes us to Little over 1100 miles still in a day living thought and still stuck in the middle |
| 770 | 02:37:41 --> 02:38:01 | now imagine if you go in there and you're adding more contracts each time or adding additional What is it X f, X f whatever the accounts aren't everybody |
| 771 | 02:38:01 --> 02:38:01 | links together |
| 772 | 02:38:11 --> 02:38:16 | compounding each time doesn't take long to erase what you have |
| 773 | 02:38:29 --> 02:38:39 | this will be your last attempt here for any run for that eyesight |
| 774 | 02:38:45 --> 02:38:59 | if it were bullish for the remainder of the morning session going to lunch. If they do want to take the buy side above here or over here, they will want to use |
| 775 | 02:38:59 --> 02:39:05 | this area here for it. If it fails, then I will close the day and be content with what I have. |
| 776 | 02:39:19 --> 02:39:35 | So think about what's been shown here and you don't have a real easy draw either side. Long term or bullish shorts have been short lived long to just being |
| 777 | 02:39:35 --> 02:39:41 | stifled. And to me, I think that they're allowing these stops to feel safe right now. |
| 778 | 02:40:56 --> 02:41:08 | Alright, so now this inversion fair Vega, if it drops back down, I probably won't reach the my limit order. So I have to factor in this range here, which is |
| 779 | 02:41:08 --> 02:41:20 | why I remember when I was at Twitter on the spaces, I would tell you grab that fare bag up at whatever time candle or momentum chart and extend it to the |
| 780 | 02:41:20 --> 02:41:26 | right, that's what this is shown here. It's that type of understanding or event. |
| 781 | 02:41:59 --> 02:42:11 | And that will be my last attempt for today, it stops out, I'll be done. And it would still be a net positive day. Stock loss will be below this fair value gap, |
| 782 | 02:42:11 --> 02:42:27 | or inversion pair Vega by side here, here and over here in the middle of the range. So small little hair bag that we traded into there, I would want to see |
| 783 | 02:42:27 --> 02:42:34 | immediately this candle or the very next candle start running higher. If not, the probabilities of this trade fall off precipitously. |
| 784 | 02:42:47 --> 02:42:54 | If they want to keep it in a range, there's nothing you can do about it. You can't you can't make it happen. You can't force it out of it, you can't make |
| 785 | 02:42:54 --> 02:43:05 | them release price. The only thing you do is identify it and stop. Not Well, I'm gonna eventually catch the move. I know if I leave. I know if I leave, it'll |
| 786 | 02:43:05 --> 02:43:08 | move. Let it move |
| 787 | 02:43:17 --> 02:43:24 | the markets not predisposed to go in one direction. It's gonna be hard. man who's trading it no matter what they're using the trade with it, it's gonna be |
| 788 | 02:43:24 --> 02:43:36 | difficult. And he spends a lot of mental capital. Mental capital is much more valuable than what you have in your account your account that can be that can be |
| 789 | 02:43:36 --> 02:43:46 | replaced and you can get a job a second job, sell things around the house. But put that money back into the account that refunded. Or if it's a funded account |
| 790 | 02:43:46 --> 02:43:57 | challenge and you blow it, you can just go pay for another to get back in again. But mental capital, that stuff that's anguish, that's, that's something that is |
| 791 | 02:43:58 --> 02:44:07 | terribly expensive. Because whatever you do on a day, like today, like if you push real real hard, and you compound and you compound and you compound and make |
| 792 | 02:44:07 --> 02:44:16 | the losses larger, or keep going in through frustration, thinking that you're going to finally get that big run, it's going to happen. You just got beat up |
| 793 | 02:44:16 --> 02:44:23 | and you're doing it wrong, wrong wrong. And finally you get the right side of the marketplace where it runs in your favor. That might not happen. So you have |
| 794 | 02:44:23 --> 02:44:34 | to be aware that that is always still potentially looming. You think you see an opportunity there, but this is a very difficult market environment to be in and |
| 795 | 02:44:34 --> 02:44:46 | look at it. It's very, very difficult to be trading inside that range. Every every price run is plagued with a very short term duration. And it's this |
| 796 | 02:44:46 --> 02:45:00 | gravitating right back to the middle range. Seeing it in my hands should hopefully try to reinforce it. If you see it like this. Don't push Don't Don't |
| 797 | 02:45:00 --> 02:45:12 | try to go back in and revenge don't try to push real, real hard. If this were to pan out in the trade moves in my favor, I don't want you to feel, and I'm |
| 798 | 02:45:12 --> 02:45:20 | certainly not going to champion it, I'm going to still revisit the idea that this is a very, very difficult day. If I get stopped out, I still stop on the |
| 799 | 02:45:20 --> 02:45:31 | day on the high, like, I have more than what this started with. And that's the, that's the takeaway, if you get something early on the day, and then you try |
| 800 | 02:45:31 --> 02:45:40 | again, the trade and it becomes really difficult for you to do, you have to identify that, and don't try to push it away, like, well, that's just me being a |
| 801 | 02:45:40 --> 02:45:51 | wimp, you know, I gotta get out here and push my edge and push your edge, well, I have an edge. But it's being dulled, it's every new candle creates, it's not |
| 802 | 02:45:51 --> 02:45:59 | finding its momentum higher or lower, it's not trying to move anywhere. So they're holding it, the market is being held. And if I close the stream, and it |
| 803 | 02:45:59 --> 02:46:08 | starts tearing off, that's not going to make me stop using what it is I used to trade with. This means that, okay, I limited how much mental capital I'm willing |
| 804 | 02:46:08 --> 02:46:18 | to expend on this particular trading day. Because if you do something that you terribly draw your account down, or you blow it, and other stuff out there, |
| 805 | 02:46:19 --> 02:46:28 | it's, it's something you're going to carry with you into your next trading day, it's gonna carry right into your next trading day or your next account, if you |
| 806 | 02:46:28 --> 02:46:39 | blow the account, you're gonna go in with anger, or fear is going to cause you to have difficulty pressing the button. And that's real hard to overcome. |
| 807 | 02:46:39 --> 02:46:53 | Because once you get that scar tissue, it's there. And scar tissue is not flexible, it causes the the inability of what would normally be allowed to move |
| 808 | 02:46:53 --> 02:47:05 | with tissue. Like, if you ever like I had been shot of instead, in those areas, I can feel small, little adhesions. And every time you hurt yourself trading, |
| 809 | 02:47:06 --> 02:47:16 | you're creating those adhesions, and they're attaching themselves to fear and anxiety, or anger. And every single time you do that, you keep adding more scar |
| 810 | 02:47:16 --> 02:47:25 | tissue, psychologically, and it makes it very, very difficult to trade outside of that once you acquire it. So you're always gonna have losing trades, that's |
| 811 | 02:47:25 --> 02:47:32 | gonna happen, you're gonna have days that aren't going to pan out for you, despite what you think you're trading with. Whatever skill set or ability you |
| 812 | 02:47:32 --> 02:47:43 | have, you're going to be met with days where it just simply is not going to move. And you're, you're at a crossroads, do you submit to the fact that you're |
| 813 | 02:47:43 --> 02:47:55 | expecting the market to behave in a manner in which it's not willing to do on that day, not that it will trade for you in your favor at another day. But at |
| 814 | 02:47:55 --> 02:48:08 | that time, you have to, there has to be a threshold where you say, Okay, I'm at the limit at which I'm willing to keep participating in this. And you have to |
| 815 | 02:48:08 --> 02:48:23 | push aside that fear of if you leave, if you stop trading for that day. And it moves where you thought it was gonna go. Who cares? You didn't risk any more |
| 816 | 02:48:23 --> 02:48:31 | money. You didn't spend any more mental capital, but you take away from that with this. It moved where I thought it would move. And while I was not |
| 817 | 02:48:31 --> 02:48:43 | successful at the time executing on it, I did not lose any more. And I'm feeling very confident that we're I thought that Mark was going to go, it went where I |
| 818 | 02:48:43 --> 02:48:55 | need to refine my skill set is the patience and waiting for the right setup, or the trade frequency, I need to limit it, lower it because if you lower it, |
| 819 | 02:48:55 --> 02:49:05 | chances are you would take the trade the last trade or whatever trade would be later in the trading session. But because I want to be done by 11 o'clock, you |
| 820 | 02:49:05 --> 02:49:13 | know, I forced myself into a corner where I had to push I had to push and you're seeing even in my hands it's not trying to go anywhere |
| 821 | 02:49:22 --> 02:49:25 | let's go back to a 930 candle here |
| 822 | 02:49:35 --> 02:49:47 | Okay, so here's 50% of the daily range from the opening bell at 930. So there's a high, there's a low here's halfway see that. What are we done? upper half, |
| 823 | 02:49:47 --> 02:49:59 | lower half, right in the middle. Okay, where's liquidity? Right now? It's right below this low here. And right there, and on the high end, it's right here. It |
| 824 | 02:50:00 --> 02:50:10 | and layered into these highs in this high. And you know, it doesn't have to hit in either one of them. It could stay right in the range, it's created right |
| 825 | 02:50:10 --> 02:50:19 | here, and there's nothing you or I can do about that. There's going to be days where it does things just like that. And it's going to fly in the face of what |
| 826 | 02:50:19 --> 02:50:29 | you think is reasonable, it shouldn't do this, it should be doing that, or it should be doing this. Who says you do, and you're not making the market. I'm not |
| 827 | 02:50:29 --> 02:50:43 | making the market. So you have to submit to the idea that, hey, it's not in the cards today. It's not in the cards. So therefore I have to excuse myself from |
| 828 | 02:50:43 --> 02:51:01 | the charts, go do something else. And don't force your, your hard line opinion on what the market should do. And you'll find that after taking stop outs, and |
| 829 | 02:51:01 --> 02:51:10 | you go into a period of drawdown, you're going to feel like you really want to smash this market, you want to you want to take your revenge out on it. I have a |
| 830 | 02:51:10 --> 02:51:18 | million people following me now, I am not embarrassed, I'm not fazed by this at all. Because we outline the fact that we're in the middle of arrange whether the |
| 831 | 02:51:18 --> 02:51:28 | trade panned out or not, it made it made no sense to place so much emphasis on it, it was confident enough that I was going to move so no, because I went down |
| 832 | 02:51:28 --> 02:51:38 | to one contract. That's exactly how you do it. If you're in a position where you want to take a trade, and you can afford to do more than one contract, whatever |
| 833 | 02:51:38 --> 02:51:49 | you can afford, okay? And you try to go to the upper end, or at least more than half of whatever the maximum amount of contracts that you can trade with. And |
| 834 | 02:51:49 --> 02:51:59 | you're doing that in a market environment that you know, you already are questioning the the profile that we're in now, not something that's profile like |
| 835 | 02:51:59 --> 02:52:10 | you think the horizontal vertical, or the horizontal, vertical horizontal volume bars, okay, I don't trade with volume profile, okay, I don't use V whap, or any |
| 836 | 02:52:10 --> 02:52:25 | of those things. In this market environment here. Everything's going to have a difficult footing. So when I see this, I think, okay, all this is doing is |
| 837 | 02:52:25 --> 02:52:36 | confirming that I need to push the brakes, stop and wait for tomorrow, not come back in the session later today. Not try to get a little bit of the hair of the |
| 838 | 02:52:36 --> 02:52:50 | dog that bit me. Just simply pump the brakes. There's nothing wrong with taking losing trades, especially if you've taken them in they're small. If the trades |
| 839 | 02:52:50 --> 02:53:10 | are small, what then it's it's a paper cut. But it is a measure of risk that's grossly out of normal five, seven 10% of your account or risking blowing the |
| 840 | 02:53:10 --> 02:53:18 | funded account. If you're trading in those types of things. That's not good. That's not good risk management. |
| 841 | 02:53:24 --> 02:53:32 | And when you take a losing trade, or if you're a live streamer, and you have a losing day or you take a losing trade you if you feel like because I've watched |
| 842 | 02:53:32 --> 02:53:42 | the live streamers, or they'll eventually they'll get into trading. They say Oh, and they'll say audibly. Okay, no big deal, whatever. But their face is saying |
| 843 | 02:53:44 --> 02:53:54 | this hurts. And the only reason why it hurts is because you did in front of the people. And I have 1000s of people watching here today. And none of this has |
| 844 | 02:53:54 --> 02:54:03 | done anything to question how I trade how I will trade and what I think the market will do tomorrow next week or whatnot, because losing trades are gonna |
| 845 | 02:54:03 --> 02:54:16 | happen. You're gonna you're gonna have to pay that toll. Everybody pays that toll. Nobody is exempt from it. But what happens is, these times make you test |
| 846 | 02:54:17 --> 02:54:29 | your resolve it'll force you to to take inventory about who you are what you're doing this for if you're trying to just be right, you'll you'll have a trade. If |
| 847 | 02:54:29 --> 02:54:43 | you're impulsive, you'll over trade. If you're reckless, you'll do all those things and over leverage. So pre session, I gave myself that trade to give me a |
| 848 | 02:54:43 --> 02:54:51 | little bit of a cushion knowing going into this day as I outlined throughout the livestream that we are in a difficult day because we have traded to all time |
| 849 | 02:54:51 --> 02:55:02 | highs and then we had that initial run down into closing the gap. Okay, so for traders that usually trade that gap close That's the thing, by the way, in case |
| 850 | 02:55:02 --> 02:55:16 | I'm not making it clear to you what that is. We opened up here, and we settled here the previous day, we traded down, close the gap, overshot it. And now we're |
| 851 | 02:55:16 --> 02:55:29 | doing what we're just hanging around, hanging around inside that, that range. So this is very, very difficult to trade in. anyone tells you it's easy, they're |
| 852 | 02:55:29 --> 02:55:30 | lying |
| 853 | 02:55:37 --> 02:55:46 | it's real hard to get a flooding on that where the price runs will be sustained. So you can get to a run, that makes good sense, risk wise. |
| 854 | 02:55:51 --> 02:56:07 | Number one role, preserve capital. If I know I'm in a day, that is problematic, where it's likely to go into consolidations, or seek and destroy. And this is |
| 855 | 02:56:07 --> 02:56:21 | not seeking to destroy, but this is just a simple consolidation day. It's just, you know, it escapes me, who I learned this from. Give me a second is 50 year |
| 856 | 02:56:21 --> 02:56:34 | old mind that I'm having a senior moment here. They call, they call it a Z day. And I like the expression of it. So it's kind of like that, where it's not |
| 857 | 02:56:34 --> 02:56:43 | really making higher highs not making a lower low. It's just consolidating back and forth. And it's not really aggressively running for any particular pool of |
| 858 | 02:56:43 --> 02:56:55 | liquidity above or below it. Just meander sideways, okay, that's what we're in right now. In this is the hardest market, if I want to seek and destroy day, I |
| 859 | 02:56:55 --> 02:57:08 | can be profitable in that day. But if I stay with all day long, eventually it'll burn me. These days like this, this is the hardest day for me, because it starts |
| 860 | 02:57:08 --> 02:57:16 | off with, okay, it could be problematic. But then as the day goes forward, you start seeing setups that Okay, this looks like it might do this. And you go on |
| 861 | 02:57:16 --> 02:57:23 | there and you do it and it just goes right back to the middle of the range, and just keeps hugging it back to the middle range, it'll move a little bit, and |
| 862 | 02:57:23 --> 02:57:32 | then come right back to the range. As soon as you start seeing that your experience should kick in and say, Okay, this is a day that doesn't have the |
| 863 | 02:57:32 --> 02:57:43 | highest degree of probability. This is a day where it might stay just like this the rest of the day. And the natural tendencies as a human being, especially |
| 864 | 02:57:43 --> 02:57:55 | someone now that wants to do this in trade with money. The natural impulse is to think, well, the move hasn't happened yet. I know as soon as I turn off my |
| 865 | 02:57:55 --> 02:58:06 | charts, it's going to move in, I'm going to miss it. And you're equating that as a punishment, or a loss of opportunity, where I'm trying to convey the idea |
| 866 | 02:58:06 --> 02:58:16 | that, yeah, that might happen. But that's a trade that you're not risking any money on to. So that's a winning trade, that you have the benefit of seeing if |
| 867 | 02:58:16 --> 02:58:30 | that does pan out with no risk. Not even in a demo, not even in cloud online, because you call something that doesn't that doesn't have an effect on me. Early |
| 868 | 02:58:30 --> 02:58:40 | on it did in for you, some of you. Some of you might be thinking, well, you know, why did you take your three stop outs today ICT I mean, you're supposed to |
| 869 | 02:58:40 --> 02:58:49 | be mister this semester that I am Mister this. Okay, give me the market is going to move and I'm gonna show you. But going in, I outlined all this thing that |
| 870 | 02:58:49 --> 02:59:00 | it's we're right in a time where it's a very difficult day. And I'm going to put myself out here in front of you in a very difficult day. And nobody can question |
| 871 | 02:59:00 --> 02:59:09 | whether or not this has not been a difficult day because it's just ranging around. It's consolidating. And you know, you can't force it outside of its |
| 872 | 02:59:09 --> 02:59:18 | range. You can see a setup. And you can give all kinds of reasons as to why you think it's a good time to buy or sell. But if the markets not going to move, |
| 873 | 02:59:18 --> 02:59:31 | guess what that means it's not going to move and a neophyte someone that is undisciplined, someone that is not versed in being responsible for their own |
| 874 | 02:59:31 --> 02:59:40 | actions, their own decisions, they will impulsively think to themselves, well, I have to keep doing it because I know that move is eventually going to happen, |
| 875 | 02:59:40 --> 02:59:50 | and I'm going to get it. But what happens if you do that 12 The 15 more times, and they may be 200 Point losses, or I'm sorry, $200 losses, and they're not |
| 876 | 02:59:50 --> 02:59:58 | that much in terms of money because you're trading with a funded account. It's not real money. But eventually those losses will take you to and I don't |
| 877 | 02:59:58 --> 03:00:07 | remember what the Maximum losses are foreign, because I don't trade with those things. But whatever that maximum daily losses, you'll get there eventually, on |
| 878 | 03:00:07 --> 03:00:21 | a day just like this, or if you do maximum contracts, and you do that trade copying thing, and you trade real hard on a day like this, when you roast all of |
| 879 | 03:00:21 --> 03:00:32 | the accounts, or however many you linked up, and that's demoralizing. Whereas I'm sitting in front of you, with a really large audience. And I'm completely |
| 880 | 03:00:32 --> 03:00:40 | content with this. Because this is, this is what's going to happen for you the rest of your career, you're going to be met with hard trading days. And you got |
| 881 | 03:00:40 --> 03:00:49 | to make a decision. Do you really want to push hard in a day that's already proven to you that it's not doing anything and won't budge, just like a stubborn |
| 882 | 03:00:49 --> 03:01:02 | meal with just will not move? And assuming that you're your mule will start running for you, or run into where you wanted to go? After you leave it. That's, |
| 883 | 03:01:02 --> 03:01:13 | to me, it's stupid. It's stupidity. You're insisting that you're right. You're going to be right, given enough opportunity to prove it, eventually, you'll be |
| 884 | 03:01:13 --> 03:01:21 | right. But how much are you willing to draw down in your account to eventually be able to say, See, I was right, I took 17 losing trades, and I got it all back |
| 885 | 03:01:22 --> 03:01:33 | and covered commissions. On my last trade. Winning, it doesn't, that doesn't equate to skill for me. It shouldn't equate to skill for you. But showing |
| 886 | 03:01:34 --> 03:01:44 | responsibility, I mean, look at where we're at right here. I mean, look what it's doing. To me, that's indicative of go outside and get some air, go do |
| 887 | 03:01:44 --> 03:01:54 | something else, go read a book, you know, go spend time with your family or friends or take a drive. Because there's better days to trade. And because this |
| 888 | 03:01:54 --> 03:02:03 | day was not all that fruitful, I will try to make an allowance for tomorrow and see if I can find a couple of hours tomorrow morning. I don't know if I'll go |
| 889 | 03:02:03 --> 03:02:16 | before 930. But I'll definitely try to be with you live tomorrow. But quarter after nine, let's say that quarter after nine. Eastern Standard Time. Okay, so |
| 890 | 03:02:16 --> 03:02:24 | whatever the local time is in New York City, New York, whatever that time is there, that's what you should have your your clock at your home, wherever you're |
| 891 | 03:02:24 --> 03:02:33 | at in the world. And that's the same time iced tea is looking at. Okay, so 915, tomorrow, I'll do another live stream. And I'll sit with you all. And we'll see |
| 892 | 03:02:33 --> 03:02:43 | if the market wants to provide anything tomorrow. And I'll push some buttons in front of you then too. But I covered a lot of things today that my own personal |
| 893 | 03:02:43 --> 03:02:55 | students requested I talked about. And a lot of other questions that came up a lot in the comment section. So when you have time, you might want to revisit the |
| 894 | 03:02:55 --> 03:03:07 | first half of the video because I talked a lot about things that seemed to keep coming up a lot. And I maybe not done a good enough job discussing it when I was |
| 895 | 03:03:07 --> 03:03:17 | teaching it throughout the lectures. But it's a lot of it's a lot of content, it's a lot of coursework. And sometimes in certain lectures, I do a better job |
| 896 | 03:03:17 --> 03:03:26 | of talking about something because I don't have a script. And I go off of whatever I'm talking about at the time. And if I don't talk about the subject |
| 897 | 03:03:26 --> 03:03:35 | matter to your satisfaction, it may feel like you know, I'm hiding it from you. I'm not hiding it from you. It's just, there's so many other things that are |
| 898 | 03:03:35 --> 03:03:44 | happening in front of me in in the time of recording, if I'm looking at a chart, my attention goes to watching what it's doing. And I'm trying to read it all the |
| 899 | 03:03:44 --> 03:03:55 | time. So, but I believe this lecture that did the first half of it, I covered a lot of things that I don't have, I don't know how I will be able to do it better |
| 900 | 03:03:55 --> 03:04:07 | than teaching how I trust certain fair value gaps over others. I won't know how to do another way of explaining runs on liquidity and how I know it shouldn't go |
| 901 | 03:04:07 --> 03:04:17 | beyond that. That's my answer. That's the final answer in that question. And I understand that won't satisfy some of you, because you're either too new at what |
| 902 | 03:04:17 --> 03:04:27 | it is I'm doing or you're not familiar with it, or you're just not going to be satisfied. In any case. So I'm trying to convey the idea that I did my best in |
| 903 | 03:04:27 --> 03:04:39 | answering the question even my personal private students asked, and I don't have I don't have any other way of explaining it except for experience and using the |
| 904 | 03:04:39 --> 03:04:58 | rules outlined in the first half of this one today. So my gut tells me that by this inversion Come on, buddy. One more time. One more time. Come on, you know |
| 905 | 03:05:02 --> 03:05:08 | That's because I'm sitting in front of charts. It's not because I want to try to see face because I already told you about ball. And when you hit those, by |
| 906 | 03:05:08 --> 03:05:23 | stops, it still doesn't change the fact it's a hard day. But it is 1104. And I'm going to close this one. And just remind you that I will be willing to sit with |
| 907 | 03:05:23 --> 03:05:31 | you tomorrow, live, they won't be so much of a teaching thing because I want to go in and focus on what price is doing. And if I get a price run and I'm able to |
| 908 | 03:05:31 --> 03:05:40 | participate in it, whatever that price run ends in whatever execution I make when it closes, I'll close it, the live stream then I don't want to be in front |
| 909 | 03:05:40 --> 03:05:50 | of the charts. I don't want to do that all day type thing like we did here today. But despite the three stop outs, again, |
| 910 | 03:05:51 --> 03:06:13 | let's do the numbers here. There you go. This would be a $885.55 cent profitable day with four trades, three stop outs. Okay, so three stop outs. One winning |
| 911 | 03:06:13 --> 03:06:36 | trade draw down on the last three in the breaks are being pumped. Okay, so I still favorite at 17 501. I like that by sight still. So if it runs out there, |
| 912 | 03:06:36 --> 03:06:45 | it's a moral victory. Yeah, I was right about that. But I was wrong on every one of the executions after this morning's earliest trade. So that's it for this |
| 913 | 03:06:45 --> 03:06:57 | one. I will do what I can tomorrow. 915 I guess we'll we'll start and I'll see you then. Until talk to you next time. Be safe. |