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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-04-19 18:16
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1 == Outline ==
2
3 ##00:14 -## How are you doing? -.
4
5 ##02:23 -## What would this look like on a 30 minute timeframe?
6
7 ##04:27 -## If I was incorrect about the run higher at the 30 CPI number that it would run for the sell side down, here’s why
8
9 ##06:14 -## Tape reading, observation and observation.
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11 ##02:28:53 -## ##07:25 -## The silverbullet trade -.
12
13 ##08:51 -## The bodies of the candles are telling you the story.
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15 ##10:15 -## Institutional order for entry.
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17 == Transcription ==
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19 (% class="hover min" %)
20 |1 |00:00:14,009 ~-~-> 00:00:25,199 |ICT: MacBooks longtime new si hubiera is doing well. How are you doing? Are you doing? Well? I certainly hope you are. So we're looking at the E Mini s&p s as a
21 |2 |00:00:25,199 ~-~-> 00:00:35,339 |quick little review, for weekly chart actually. And I'll take your attention up into this is the present trading week that we're in. And we were able to trade
22 |3 |00:00:35,339 ~-~-> 00:00:49,979 |above previous leaks high. And while I was looking for personally 41 ad at 41 at 1.2 5.75 escapes me right off the top of my head with the consequent courage
23 |4 |00:00:49,979 ~-~-> 00:01:01,019 |meant was between this candles open and the high midpoint of that wick. That was more or less what I was trying to aim for. On Twitter this morning, I outlined
24 |5 |00:01:02,429 ~-~-> 00:01:10,499 |my opinion for CPI. And I don't want you to make too much of it. But for one ad I mentioned yesterday as a potential upside objective that I was looking for for
25 |6 |00:01:10,499 ~-~-> 00:01:19,229 |this week, and how, if at all, we traded there would be indicative of how we trade for the rest of the week. So we were very, very close to trade into for
26 |7 |00:01:19,229 ~-~-> 00:01:33,989 |one ad was one quarter point, one tick short or shy of reaching 41 ad today, which made this specific candles high against the weekly range. So since we've
27 |8 |00:01:34,019 ~-~-> 00:01:43,979 |already ran out previous week's high, and we've given up much of the ground gained over the week. So far, I'm entertaining the idea that we might want to
28 |9 |00:01:43,979 ~-~-> 00:01:54,659 |trade back down into this candles high in this candles low. So that is a fear a gap, a form of a busy boss and analysis on efficiency. I've done the work to
29 |10 |00:01:54,659 ~-~-> 00:02:04,949 |provide you the consequent Christian level for 08 5.25. And the other levels here are noted respective. Okay, so I'll be looking for reasons to want to see
30 |11 |00:02:04,949 ~-~-> 00:02:15,629 |if price can drop down into that range. Does it entirely close that in? If it does, that means we're probably very bearish. And we'll be looking for more
31 |12 |00:02:15,629 ~-~-> 00:02:30,089 |targets, through commentary on Twitter and or any future live session that I plan on doing tomorrow, by the way. So let's continue on. So this is what it
32 |13 |00:02:30,089 ~-~-> 00:02:38,549 |would look like on a 30 minute timeframe. We do have sell side below here. So it'll be interesting to see how much we go into that weekly gap in the form of
33 |14 |00:02:38,549 ~-~-> 00:02:40,049 |the buy side of Alzheimer's urgency.
34 |15 |00:02:45,870 ~-~-> 00:02:56,880 |All right, we're looking at the daily chart here is naked, nothing on it. And I was looking at this opening price on this candle here. And previous high on this
35 |16 |00:02:56,880 ~-~-> 00:03:10,560 |candle, we had all those levels noted in this is what we have here also, we have a volume imbalance, the opening price of that candle here thrown out. And again,
36 |17 |00:03:10,620 ~-~-> 00:03:22,830 |that falls just short of one quarter of a point or one tick. And the high here was in fact ran out, then we had somewhat of the intraday reversal pattern. We
37 |18 |00:03:22,830 ~-~-> 00:03:34,200 |have sellside below this low here and an imbalance as well there. So then we start to encroach upon this fair bit again, which takes us more into that
38 |19 |00:03:34,800 ~-~-> 00:03:41,880 |imbalance. I mentioned from the weekly chart, which I'm not going to show on the rest of these charts. If you want to add that for your own observation and
39 |20 |00:03:41,880 ~-~-> 00:03:52,860 |study, you can do that I included it earlier in this presentation. hourly chart here, we can see the price analysis on efficiency. Here's a survey gap. We
40 |21 |00:03:52,890 ~-~-> 00:04:03,960 |reached down into that after running up into three targets I gave four if you counted yesterday, which was the 4180 level which was just shy of reaching that
41 |22 |00:04:03,960 ~-~-> 00:04:15,630 |with this run up here on the CPI number. But this bison here, the consequent encouragement of this wick in the buy side above here, so this high this wick
42 |23 |00:04:15,780 ~-~-> 00:04:25,650 |consequent encouragement in this high here. And then if we went any level, which was just short of reaching that by a quarter replan again, it's not a broken
43 |24 |00:04:25,650 ~-~-> 00:04:35,280 |record, but it is what it is. I mentioned that if I was incorrect about the run higher at the 30 cpi number that it would run for the sell side down. Here's a
44 |25 |00:04:35,280 ~-~-> 00:04:44,280 |huge amount of sell stops that are resting below there. I think we're probably going to start to gravitate towards that now. We've spent a lot of time here,
45 |26 |00:04:44,640 ~-~-> 00:04:53,340 |ran above and looks in my opinion, it looks bearish from where we're at. And even if it wasn't go higher, longer term. It would be okay for us to take that
46 |27 |00:04:53,340 ~-~-> 00:05:04,770 |out. If it goes below that and then rejects it and starts to trade. You know much more Add me to the upside, then that will be decided the bullish, but near
47 |28 |00:05:04,770 ~-~-> 00:05:17,430 |term I'm looking for a sell side going into tonight and tomorrow. Alright here is the 15 minute timeframe zoomed in a little bit of an imbalance here it's Is
48 |29 |00:05:17,580 ~-~-> 00:05:26,880 |there a gap in the form of asset analysis and inefficiency. That was kind of the framework I was utilizing for the bullishness on the CPI number, I basically
49 |30 |00:05:27,540 ~-~-> 00:05:36,360 |always give you my opinion, okay, even if I don't want to trade or if I'm indicating that, like, for instance, CPI is very risky. So I tell my students
50 |31 |00:05:36,360 ~-~-> 00:05:47,130 |not to stand in front of that, because if you're wrong, it can rip your face off. So I liked his show my hand to you, until you would say the market I favors
51 |32 |00:05:47,130 ~-~-> 00:05:54,210 |that way. It kind of scratches the itch for traders that want to know or students that want to know what my personal opinion is, what do I think is
52 |33 |00:05:54,210 ~-~-> 00:06:01,770 |likely to occur. So that way, you can study the delivery price in the same time in real time, like iron. And it just happened to be correct today. But don't
53 |34 |00:06:01,770 ~-~-> 00:06:09,030 |make anything of that because CPI is a gamble, you don't know for certain what it's going to do. I don't know for certain, even though it did very well today
54 |35 |00:06:09,030 ~-~-> 00:06:18,720 |based on what my expectations were. And there was no button pushed on that trade idea. So it's just a takeaway in terms of experience, tape reading, and
55 |36 |00:06:18,720 ~-~-> 00:06:31,350 |observation, Ollie. Alright, so we got that run here. This will be extended going toward lower timeframes rather. Then we have the Super Bowl tray, which is
56 |37 |00:06:31,650 ~-~-> 00:06:38,670 |this fair value gap here, extended out and ends up being utilized in the pm session as well. We'll look at that and we drop in the lower timeframes. But we
57 |38 |00:06:38,670 ~-~-> 00:06:48,900 |dug into that a fair a gap mentioned in the higher timeframe that's been extended over here. So we were able to reach for sell side below that low in the
58 |39 |00:06:48,900 ~-~-> 00:06:59,880 |pm session in the last hour trading. Five minute chart zoomed in here, here is that CPI number we traded down into that fair value gap. I mentioned that turn
59 |40 |00:06:59,880 ~-~-> 00:07:07,050 |your attention to that also this morning. If you follow me on Twitter, if you don't follow me on Twitter, you're probably not going to be prompted. In real
60 |41 |00:07:07,050 ~-~-> 00:07:15,420 |time, you'll always be seeing things on these videos or watching a live stream after the fact that I try to point to certain things either by chart or
61 |42 |00:07:15,420 ~-~-> 00:07:23,880 |commentary on Twitter. So it's like the closest things are real time that I can prompt you to pay attention to certain things in your charts real time. But CPI
62 |43 |00:07:23,880 ~-~-> 00:07:36,180 |number 830. Rain, I hit all three targets and then just fell short. And it not only touches that level here, I just fell short of that didn't get to it. And
63 |44 |00:07:36,180 ~-~-> 00:07:49,620 |the 4180 level. It felt just ever so short of reaching that as well. And ultimately, we broke down completely running right back over top of this by
64 |45 |00:07:49,620 ~-~-> 00:08:02,520 |selling balances on efficiency to that candle here created a fear Vega ran up into the range between 10 and 11. That's the silver bullet trade. That's the one
65 |46 |00:08:02,520 ~-~-> 00:08:11,190 |that if you were to ask me, if I was only going to trade one time a day in the morning, where would I focus between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock looks at fair
66 |47 |00:08:11,190 ~-~-> 00:08:19,500 |value gap, identify where it liquidity would be? Well over trading, we rejected up here and we broke down and created a fair value gap and rallied back up into
67 |48 |00:08:19,530 ~-~-> 00:08:29,820 |2011. That's with the shaded areas here and a gray area, then this is South side we have relatively equal lows here. And if you want to be over zealous with your
68 |49 |00:08:29,850 ~-~-> 00:08:37,740 |objectives reaching below just sellside alone isn't enough for you, you can reach for that imbalance which it does in fact trade down into here in the 11
69 |50 |00:08:37,740 ~-~-> 00:08:46,350 |o'clock hour. But the setup forms between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock and that is my silver gold trade where we for fair value got aim for liquidity and aim for
70 |51 |00:08:46,380 ~-~-> 00:08:54,660 |minimum five handles and K and you can clearly see it does a very handsome job of doing that. Note the bodies of the candles in here. Yes, we have wicks that
71 |52 |00:08:54,660 ~-~-> 00:09:04,230 |are shown in price action but the bodies of the candles are telling you the story. The wicks do the damage the market explodes lower takes out sell side
72 |53 |00:09:04,260 ~-~-> 00:09:15,120 |takes out sell side here and in digs into the imbalance mentioned on the higher timeframe. Venturing back up into the New York pm session starting at 1:30pm.
73 |54 |00:09:15,810 ~-~-> 00:09:26,880 |Using that same fare you got extended in time we're not supply and demand we cut through candles. So at 130 that starts the study of the pm session. And between
74 |55 |00:09:26,880 ~-~-> 00:09:35,790 |two o'clock and four o'clock that's your your sweet spot. If you're going to be a pm session trader use the advantage of having all the morning activity behind
75 |56 |00:09:35,790 ~-~-> 00:09:45,720 |you. You're going to be a bullish day or bearish day. Generally you'll see a continuation in that time window between 2pm and 4pm. We do in fact get that and
76 |57 |00:09:45,720 ~-~-> 00:09:56,280 |break lower. And then we'll look at the last hour trading as well. Here we are on the final hour of the New York session pm session. And we can see at the
77 |58 |00:09:56,280 ~-~-> 00:10:07,770 |beginning of that three o'clock hour we had a high read it shift in market structure here sells an unbalanced button an efficiency midpoint that is
78 |59 |00:10:07,770 ~-~-> 00:10:16,680 |constant encouragement, it trades right up to it here perfectly to the tick doesn't fall short doesn't go over top of it. It was exactly right to consequent
79 |60 |00:10:16,680 ~-~-> 00:10:28,170 |encroachment stops dead in its tracks, which is also a breaker. Here, trades aggressively lower, they have a sell side and bounce us on efficiency again,
80 |61 |00:10:28,440 ~-~-> 00:10:38,460 |institutional order for entry job, which is a partial entry into a fair Vega that doesn't reach to midpoint which consequent corrosion or complete refilling
81 |62 |00:10:38,490 ~-~-> 00:10:50,910 |of the imbalance. So institutional ortho entry do, we want to see that after the market shows a willingness to want to break away. So we anticipate that opening
82 |63 |00:10:51,960 ~-~-> 00:11:01,110 |right here with this imbalance to stay open, which makes this a breakaway gap and digs into deeper prices. And I'd measured from this high to that low or
83 |64 |00:11:01,110 ~-~-> 00:11:10,950 |standard deviation for swing projections. Aiming for the low target during the last hour of trading. We have a negative three standard deviation at 4113 and a
84 |65 |00:11:10,950 ~-~-> 00:11:22,710 |half and so happens to be that's the low of the day. And it's in that sweet spot of teaching between 315 and 345, which is the market or close macro. So you're
85 |66 |00:11:22,710 ~-~-> 00:11:34,080 |gonna see extreme precision, if you look at your charts there. It's exactly 4113 and a half now ticks above our tick below rate on perfect. He can't improve on
86 |67 |00:11:34,080 ~-~-> 00:11:43,230 |perfection and work he does, in fact, trade back higher, digs back up into this imbalance a little bit more, and it falls back down doesn't take up the low here
87 |68 |00:11:43,230 ~-~-> 00:11:52,140 |it stays intact. And it does go into range bound trading. So it'll be interesting how you open at six o'clock and start resuming trading. I'd like to
88 |69 |00:11:52,140 ~-~-> 00:12:00,840 |see a gap lower, come back up and fill the gap and proceed to move lower overnight and into tomorrow's session. That's what I like to see but what the
89 |70 |00:12:00,840 ~-~-> 00:12:07,860 |market does and what I like to see is two different things. So hopefully this was insightful and I'll talk to you tomorrow. Be safe