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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-03-08 13:30
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1 == Outline ==
2
3 ##00:40 -## Fed Chairman Powell to testify today.
4
5 ##03:30 -## When the Fed is involved, all rules go out the window.
6
7 ##12:07 -## What to watch for in the FX market.
8
9 ##19:46 -## Highs and lows of the day.
10
11 ##26:04 -## Using the Dow as a barometer for the US Dollar.
12
13 ##30:40 -## Dow Futures and Dollar Index:.
14
15 ##37:18 -## The low midpoint of this chart.
16
17 ##40:52 -## If you had the benefit of toggling between toggling between Dixie and DDS, why do you do that?
18
19 ##45:38 -## Real-time real-time trade idea.
20
21 ##49:48 -## What is an imbalance inside of a breaker?
22
23 == Transcript ==
24
25 (% class="hover min" %)
26 |1 |00:00:40,470 ~-~-> 00:00:41,580 |ICT: Don't an audio check.
27 |2 |00:01:27,600 ~-~-> 00:01:31,800 |can't seem to find my own stream
28 |3 |00:01:48,270 ~-~-> 00:01:57,270 |editor myself, so my audio is working. Good morning, folks.
29 |4 |00:01:57,270 ~-~-> 00:02:08,640 |Good morning. And if you don't already know Powell will be testifying here in a few minutes, just want to put my the risk disclaimer real quick
30 |5 |00:02:35,760 ~-~-> 00:02:49,200 |it's so obvious I've had the flu last week and my voice has been not cooperating. Yesterday did a lot, a lot more talking than I should have. So I'm
31 |6 |00:02:49,200 ~-~-> 00:02:56,280 |going to try not to do that. Today I'm going to talk just about what is sailing at the moment.
32 |7 |00:03:05,160 ~-~-> 00:03:20,910 |So the economic calendar for today and tomorrow shows that we have Fed Chairman Powell testifying at 10 o'clock both days today and on Wednesday, which, in my
33 |8 |00:03:20,910 ~-~-> 00:03:34,530 |opinion, you should not be trying to speculate this morning. No one has any idea. I don't have no idea. That is high probability. That is low risk. When the
34 |9 |00:03:34,560 ~-~-> 00:03:44,160 |Fed is involved, all things go out the window my concepts included, okay, because it's manual intervention, that means they're going to do whatever
35 |10 |00:03:44,160 ~-~-> 00:03:59,640 |they're going to do period. It is not a lack of liquidity, as sometimes people will say it is absolutely controlled demolition, okay. So because of that, I
36 |11 |00:03:59,640 ~-~-> 00:04:09,120 |tell my students, and if you're listening, you're a student, whether you like it or not. And that is a time when you want to sit on your hands and do not be
37 |12 |00:04:09,120 ~-~-> 00:04:17,670 |content with not knowing and give yourself permission. I don't know what they're going to do this morning. I have no bias I hold no bias. You shouldn't have a
38 |13 |00:04:17,670 ~-~-> 00:04:32,250 |bias this morning either. What you're doing is looking to see how the testimony that the Fed Chairman gives during the 10 o'clock hour. And what they leave in
39 |14 |00:04:32,250 ~-~-> 00:04:42,480 |the wake of that meaning what the market leaves in terms of liquidity and what the market leaves in terms of inefficiency, because they're the only two factors
40 |15 |00:04:42,480 ~-~-> 00:04:52,110 |that the market isn't considering. It's either going to go up for buy stops or reprice to an inefficiency like a fair value gap, there will be a bulk price or
41 |16 |00:04:52,110 ~-~-> 00:05:03,450 |it's gonna go down below no low or lows, or sell side liquidity, or go lower to an inefficiency like a fair value gap below Morgan price. So what you're doing
42 |17 |00:05:03,450 ~-~-> 00:05:12,330 |is you're gonna be observing this morning the effects of what the Fed Chairman can do. He's not pushing price around. That's not what's actually happening
43 |18 |00:05:12,330 ~-~-> 00:05:23,460 |here. And again, it's not a lack of liquidity, because he's talking. The market is this going through a series of manual interventions where they're going to
44 |19 |00:05:23,460 ~-~-> 00:05:36,630 |run to levels that may or may not be expected by you. In every time that I've ever done this trading during these periods, I've never felt comfortable. Even
45 |20 |00:05:36,630 ~-~-> 00:05:47,550 |if I was right, I did not feel comfortable. Whereas any other time, I'm not influenced by whatever the markets doing. I'm not scared of it. I'm not afraid.
46 |21 |00:05:47,850 ~-~-> 00:05:59,070 |I'm not clueless lost in the charts. I know what I'm looking for. But because there's manual intervention, when fed is involved, that means everything in all
47 |22 |00:05:59,070 ~-~-> 00:06:09,810 |the rules go out the window, for that period of time. Once that testimony is done, a couple minutes, maybe 15 minutes after that, the lay of the land,
48 |23 |00:06:09,870 ~-~-> 00:06:20,400 |whatever the chart shows, after that, that's what I utilize with a pm session. So speculation in the morning session really, is just the gamble. And if you
49 |24 |00:06:20,400 ~-~-> 00:06:33,060 |win, it will be foolish for you to attribute that as skill. And some do. And to speculate during this time period, and willingly open yourself up to risk. When
50 |25 |00:06:33,060 ~-~-> 00:06:39,330 |you don't, you have no idea what it's going to do, you have no idea where they're going to take it, you have no idea how they're going to do it. I don't
51 |26 |00:06:39,330 ~-~-> 00:06:48,360 |know what profile they would be using today. It means like a schematic or a roadmap, what they would run for, which is how I use narrative. Like when I look
52 |27 |00:06:48,360 ~-~-> 00:06:59,400 |at price action, I'm outlining things to you like yesterday, the idea of how markets book, where they go, why they go this level first, then that level,
53 |28 |00:06:59,400 ~-~-> 00:07:13,710 |second, that's all narrative. And I don't have a way of knowing the influence when the Fed steps in. So to respect that risk, and also to communicate that to
54 |29 |00:07:13,710 ~-~-> 00:07:23,430 |you as a student, it's important for you to know that you should not think that you should know what to do this morning. To do so to believe that is foolish.
55 |30 |00:07:24,060 ~-~-> 00:07:32,580 |You're literally gambling. That's the definition of gambling, because you don't know what the markets going to do this morning. Whereas any other time, I have a
56 |31 |00:07:32,580 ~-~-> 00:07:42,150 |pretty good inclination about where markets are gonna go. And if they got pregnant so far, for a number of years now. But there's no weakness in saying
57 |32 |00:07:42,150 ~-~-> 00:07:52,050 |that I don't know right now, because it's the truth, and no one else does, either. So you can watch other people out there gamble, whether they're in live
58 |33 |00:07:52,050 ~-~-> 00:07:59,910 |streams, or come back after the fact and show you this is my system, this is what I did as a trader, call it live. If you're not doing it live, it didn't
59 |34 |00:07:59,910 ~-~-> 00:08:12,360 |happen. And I don't have any shame in telling you that as your mentor, this is a time when I don't know. And I don't know, there's no secret I'm holding back,
60 |35 |00:08:12,360 ~-~-> 00:08:24,270 |there's no method or model that works perfectly in times like this, I don't have that. So I simply step aside and let the market do whatever it's going to do and
61 |36 |00:08:24,270 ~-~-> 00:08:33,960 |let the carnage unfold. And as I like to tell my long term students, you know, let the gamblers sacrifice themselves on the altar of chance. It's the same
62 |37 |00:08:33,960 ~-~-> 00:08:47,640 |thing that goes on when the Non Farm Payroll, which is this week to. So you're looking at a very, very difficult terrain as a trader this week. So I'm just
63 |38 |00:08:47,640 ~-~-> 00:08:57,240 |gonna let this mark some time until we get into 10 o'clock. I'm gonna try not to do too much talking today. I'm going to be observing anything that's noteworthy.
64 |39 |00:08:57,240 ~-~-> 00:09:07,770 |I'll talk about anything that is not noteworthy to me. I won't mention Okay, so it's more or less for you to observe real time with me and what I find is
65 |40 |00:09:07,770 ~-~-> 00:09:19,560 |useful. What's in front informative, rather, that I may reflect on in the pm session, the pm sessions 130 to four o'clock, New York local time. So I'm not
66 |41 |00:09:19,560 ~-~-> 00:09:30,240 |interested in pushing any buttons this morning. Neither should you. So that way we know what we're doing. The foolish thing for you to do is to say, well, since
67 |42 |00:09:30,240 ~-~-> 00:09:35,940 |I wouldn't be trading, I'm not going to pay attention and watch the price action that would be foolish of you because it's important you understand how the
68 |43 |00:09:35,940 ~-~-> 00:09:46,080 |market behaves and when the Fed steps in. So when it's pertinent, I'll mention certain things. If it's not, I'll remain quiet.
69 |44 |00:09:54,179 ~-~-> 00:09:55,319 |So far this morning,
70 |45 |00:09:56,070 ~-~-> 00:10:10,140 |the dollar index has moved up into a basket of equity Paul, do you look at your high of yesterday when DX y the high comes in at one Oh 4.691 We've already
71 |46 |00:10:10,140 ~-~-> 00:10:13,440 |swept that this morning. I'll pull that up for you here.
72 |47 |00:10:17,429 ~-~-> 00:10:19,379 |Okay, so we've taken out yesterday's high
73 |48 |00:10:31,950 ~-~-> 00:10:36,030 |NASDAQ has swept it's relatively close
74 |49 |00:10:59,669 ~-~-> 00:11:11,099 |now for the purposes of study, what I do when I'm looking at the market like this, and I'm not pushing a button this morning, okay, and I'm not going to come
75 |50 |00:11:11,099 ~-~-> 00:11:19,109 |back and like on Twitter and say, you want to see a dose, seriously want to speculate on the things I've shared probably in advance in that discipline,
76 |51 |00:11:19,109 ~-~-> 00:11:31,139 |something other than you the the exercise I go through, when I'm looking at like Non Farm Payroll, how much and Non Farm Payroll numbers on the Friday like we'll
77 |52 |00:11:31,139 ~-~-> 00:11:42,059 |have one this coming Friday. Or if I'm looking at FOMC, rate announcements, I type of thing, or if there's a testimony like this with the Fed chair, what I
78 |53 |00:11:42,059 ~-~-> 00:11:57,359 |like to do is I like to annotate where I think if I were in complete control the marketplace, where would I personally steer price to and why. So what that means
79 |54 |00:11:57,359 ~-~-> 00:12:07,349 |is I annotate the five and 15 minute chart by side liquidity pools and towards the highs that haven't been returned to. In different tenant timeframe. Now it
80 |55 |00:12:07,349 ~-~-> 00:12:07,889 |looks like this.
81 |56 |00:12:15,390 ~-~-> 00:12:26,940 |I know we're looking at NASDAQ, but it's the same thing for ES as well. So I would have this high here, annotated here. And these are still relatively the
82 |57 |00:12:26,940 ~-~-> 00:12:39,150 |same. So there's sulci, below here, but they're gonna go below that and wouldn't be too much to expect for it to reach below there. So in this case, since it's
83 |58 |00:12:39,150 ~-~-> 00:12:47,580 |so close, in proximity to that low, these lows here, this one in that one out entity that.
84 |59 |00:13:01,860 ~-~-> 00:13:16,740 |One in the high here. So there's two levels, I would be watching to see which one of those levels does the Fed influence first. So if it goes here, then I
85 |60 |00:13:16,740 ~-~-> 00:13:25,110 |would study to see if it goes from here to that. Or if it goes to here first, then look for that when there. It's not a matter of being right or wrong. It's
86 |61 |00:13:25,110 ~-~-> 00:13:33,330 |not a matter of a trade setup. It's just I'd like to do that as a personal exercise in a in an observation. So that way, you're not just looking at the
87 |62 |00:13:33,330 ~-~-> 00:13:44,160 |chart blindly, not knowing what you're paying attention to what's relevant to you. It just helps you with reading the tape. Reading the tape is not pushing a
88 |63 |00:13:44,160 ~-~-> 00:13:55,830 |button not demonstrating just observing price, getting a feel for what it's doing right there. And it's experienced torque times basically what to do. Now,
89 |64 |00:13:55,830 ~-~-> 00:14:08,100 |because we've approached this low here, and didn't take it, and at 10 o'clock, I would if I were running things, I would take it up here first and then come down
90 |65 |00:14:08,100 ~-~-> 00:14:11,520 |here. And maybe even as far as down into this
91 |66 |00:14:13,830 ~-~-> 00:14:14,820 |here, got over here.
92 |67 |00:14:16,380 ~-~-> 00:14:22,290 |It does not mean that it's going to have to please don't read into that and don't come back later on and say Oh, he got it wrong. I'm just telling you what
93 |68 |00:14:22,290 ~-~-> 00:14:24,990 |I'm watching on a day. I wouldn't be trading anyway.
94 |69 |00:14:27,000 ~-~-> 00:14:29,010 |Right. So it's 10 o'clock was really es now.
95 |70 |00:14:37,110 ~-~-> 00:14:52,260 |So we are in this new week open gap here. For this particular week we're trading and now in the next town, downside would be here. If we get to the midpoint
96 |71 |00:14:52,260 ~-~-> 00:14:56,940 |between both, it would be reasonable to expect it to rebound repriced, down here.
97 |72 |00:15:00,000 ~-~-> 00:15:07,020 |The Dow index is expanding higher so the risk off is the flavor of the morning this morning
98 |73 |00:15:09,150 ~-~-> 00:15:22,320 |POUND DOLLAR for those that are in forex really taken a dive from one point 1985 We're in the 40 threes 40 twos now offers a fair reading cap you can find that
99 |74 |00:15:22,320 ~-~-> 00:15:39,330 |very very good when you're finding a chocolate POUND DOLLAR at the 50 candle on finding a chart Dollar Index next pool of liquidity by side would be on the 10am
100 |75 |00:15:39,420 ~-~-> 00:15:44,400 |on Friday of last week in that high comes in at one five you
101 |76 |00:15:45,659 ~-~-> 00:15:46,919 |are in striking distance to that
102 |77 |00:15:46,919 ~-~-> 00:15:57,719 |now so we've reached the midpoint between one new news opening gap to this one here. So your expectations should be repricing to here
103 |78 |00:16:11,370 ~-~-> 00:16:11,910 |to five
104 |79 |00:16:13,169 ~-~-> 00:16:27,749 |recover bodies are expecting that new week opening up see a lot of the focusing on rebranding something gaps and such now I'm teaching you how to use them for
105 |80 |00:16:27,749 ~-~-> 00:16:37,649 |real not just oh there's a gap there it might go there and tell you how to use them and once they go there I'm not done with them when everybody else is that's
106 |81 |00:16:37,649 ~-~-> 00:16:48,119 |the difference that's the context and that's why it's still trending on Twitter if it's something that's always been around the people that have used it before
107 |82 |00:16:48,329 ~-~-> 00:16:51,029 |wouldn't show the excitement they've now garnered with it
108 |83 |00:17:20,490 ~-~-> 00:17:27,240 |never heard anybody talk about using a weekly gap as a means of mapping out what the markets gonna go to the next meeting
109 |84 |00:17:29,490 ~-~-> 00:17:36,150 |that's okay inferiority complex prepended with industry law
110 |85 |00:17:53,070 ~-~-> 00:18:07,710 |so far we had about 20 handles or so downside weight at 10 o'clock it's important not to look at these types of moves and think that oh I wish I would
111 |86 |00:18:07,710 ~-~-> 00:18:10,800 |have this is a way of forging
112 |87 |00:18:14,010 ~-~-> 00:18:15,900 |patience and self control
113 |88 |00:18:17,460 ~-~-> 00:18:30,120 |moves like this happen a lot without the requirements of the Fed being that when you introduce the Fed you introduce uncertainty you don't know you don't know
114 |89 |00:18:30,120 ~-~-> 00:18:40,950 |what side is going to happen first and to be wrong on a day like this to move against you quickly and a lot of you that are new are afraid to use stop losses
115 |90 |00:18:41,160 ~-~-> 00:18:49,530 |unfortunately it's not something you should be doing you end up hurting yourself by not understanding of the risks involved in a day like today
116 |91 |00:18:59,910 ~-~-> 00:19:05,100 |just noticed that every time I run the highest latency or lowest latency
117 |92 |00:19:06,510 ~-~-> 00:19:18,750 |to hear out this thing scream like it's the fans really wanted to keep it cool down it didn't do that before I didn't notice yesterday I
118 |93 |00:19:26,640 ~-~-> 00:19:27,870 |don't have to whisper on top
119 |94 |00:19:39,300 ~-~-> 00:19:49,740 |right so Dollar Index is now running to it's already gone through it's 105 bytes are sitting next by liquidity pool for dollar. still showing risk off would be
120 |95 |00:19:49,740 ~-~-> 00:19:58,260 |the high on March 2 Thursday. The high beam one or 518 it's about the pierce through that now.
121 |96 |00:19:59,730 ~-~-> 00:20:00,480 |Look at Dollar
122 |97 |00:20:06,629 ~-~-> 00:20:09,089 |Okay, so that's our old levels here.
123 |98 |00:20:11,070 ~-~-> 00:20:14,670 |We take these off, because that's not pertinent to anything we're talking about
124 |99 |00:20:18,330 ~-~-> 00:20:19,260 |is cleaned up
125 |100 |00:20:27,510 ~-~-> 00:20:39,810 |next level of interest we've had $1 wasn't one of the 534 one then one of the five 631.
126 |101 |00:20:42,960 ~-~-> 00:20:50,850 |So if memory serves me correct, this is the old high consequence encouragement to rejection block on the daily chart
127 |102 |00:21:08,730 ~-~-> 00:21:18,810 |that's the one minute chart you can see that you already have an opportunity. Once it starts moving bits over. Anything in here shortly would be chasing. I
128 |103 |00:21:18,810 ~-~-> 00:21:27,030 |would require at least more up close candle to get in sync with it. If it was something like one a day that I expected that you will resistance like what do
129 |104 |00:21:27,030 ~-~-> 00:21:27,330 |you run
130 |105 |00:21:33,690 ~-~-> 00:21:44,130 |because there's no retracement, you just got to let it go. And again, when comparing and contrasting that with what another day would be opposed to like
131 |106 |00:21:44,130 ~-~-> 00:21:49,950 |what we're seeing the Fed having an influence today. That wasn't that
132 |107 |00:21:51,630 ~-~-> 00:21:55,920 |if there was another day we'll be a fetcher no more than jawboning
133 |108 |00:21:57,150 ~-~-> 00:22:09,930 |in this movement here. I will be trying to get short, but I would require an up close candle to do so. There's a difference between a week oh, open gap that
134 |109 |00:22:09,930 ~-~-> 00:22:17,010 |everybody knows about in trading. Yes. But you don't ever hear anybody talk about what I've been teaching you. It's just taking them and stringing them
135 |110 |00:22:17,010 ~-~-> 00:22:27,120 |together for a narrative. So moving from one opening down to a previous nudity opening in this has been traded to and through multiple times, but it's acting
136 |111 |00:22:27,120 ~-~-> 00:22:38,340 |like a magnet. Because its algorithm, the markets gonna reprice the bat for the purpose of fair value has nothing to do with buying and selling pressure. If it
137 |112 |00:22:38,340 ~-~-> 00:22:50,040 |can accelerate to the downside, we have one down here but doesn't need to go all the way down that between both of them midpoint that's my event horizon wants to
138 |113 |00:22:50,040 ~-~-> 00:22:52,380 |see does it have a willingness to get down to at least the midpoint of the
139 |114 |00:22:55,290 ~-~-> 00:22:57,330 |dollar index is clear it's.
140 |115 |00:23:17,640 ~-~-> 00:23:23,160 |It's true back above. It's going to do the chart.
141 |116 |00:23:26,940 ~-~-> 00:23:33,900 |It's the rejection block here. That's what that dotted line is. The next line was going to be the
142 |117 |00:23:34,230 ~-~-> 00:23:37,980 |consequent of the wick this
143 |118 |00:23:43,950 ~-~-> 00:23:54,690 |everything resumes back to this is halfway of this week, which is consequat. Encouragement means the old high when this is where I've mentioned that I feel
144 |119 |00:23:54,690 ~-~-> 00:24:04,200 |that the dollar could be trying to get back up into the volume and downs on the daily chart. So it looks like that. So we had this really drawn out
145 |120 |00:24:04,200 ~-~-> 00:24:09,300 |consolidation, which is frustrating, but we're looking for it to get up into
146 |121 |00:24:10,619 ~-~-> 00:24:16,229 |longer term, which I mean bearishness on equities and on foreign currencies.
147 |122 |00:24:39,540 ~-~-> 00:24:48,060 |So last time you heard someone talking about a Sunday gap being referred to after it's been used multiple times and weeks ago, we don't see that folks.
148 |123 |00:24:48,120 ~-~-> 00:24:51,930 |Sorry, not to hurt anybody's feelings but that's just the reality of it all.
149 |124 |00:24:54,420 ~-~-> 00:24:56,220 |It's not rehashed, it's not revamped it.
150 |125 |00:24:56,250 ~-~-> 00:25:00,900 |It's not anything except for the real logic behind what makes them smart. Got a book price
151 |126 |00:25:03,419 ~-~-> 00:25:08,459 |that hurts your feelings or upset you, you're gonna have to go through that
152 |127 |00:25:21,810 ~-~-> 00:25:23,250 |J terminates at a 10
153 |128 |00:25:30,180 ~-~-> 00:25:31,170 |So we're at that
154 |129 |00:25:31,500 ~-~-> 00:25:41,850 |crossroads right now where $1 has reached into a buyside liquidity pool back into which rejection block when we do it done so in a straight shot one one
155 |130 |00:25:41,880 ~-~-> 00:25:55,530 |straight off one direction. And we have pierced and treated through the lower close proximity new week opening down here. So this is the one we have been
156 |131 |00:25:55,530 ~-~-> 00:25:57,510 |working for this week. Y'all want to hear
157 |132 |00:26:01,500 ~-~-> 00:26:09,150 |yes, I have a teaching that I'll be producing for this week. We need to get to me government got to get some rules to work with.
158 |133 |00:26:17,670 ~-~-> 00:26:18,630 |Forex traders
159 |134 |00:26:22,440 ~-~-> 00:26:34,440 |furniture out there. As mentioned earlier, the bullishness on the dollar took a dive into
160 |135 |00:26:44,940 ~-~-> 00:26:45,900 |take a look down.
161 |136 |00:26:47,190 ~-~-> 00:26:58,530 |I don't trade down. I like to use the dowel as a barometer. Much like a US Dollar index with every other market. When I'm looking at the indices, NASDAQ or
162 |137 |00:26:58,590 ~-~-> 00:27:14,640 |ES, I'm referring to dow for the purposes of SMT. Comparing highs and lows together watch these lows here in the chart, watch these highs here comparably
163 |138 |00:27:15,030 ~-~-> 00:27:16,380 |as I go through Yes, and
164 |139 |00:27:22,440 ~-~-> 00:27:30,360 |see how flat that is? Comparatively. And look at NASDAQ. There's respective buys.
165 |140 |00:27:33,270 ~-~-> 00:27:34,020 |Again down
166 |141 |00:27:42,119 ~-~-> 00:27:46,019 |to the divergence, you see the witness?
167 |142 |00:27:59,820 ~-~-> 00:28:11,850 |So from one new week opening up to another really good price has been delivered algorithmically. Yes. But with a manual intervention. So they push it real
168 |143 |00:28:11,850 ~-~-> 00:28:21,210 |quick, sudden one direction. And my question to you is you're saying that the market rate and liquidity and just happened to go randomly down into an old
169 |144 |00:28:21,360 ~-~-> 00:28:30,600 |Sunday gap opening? Without you're saying that's your argument? That's, that's what we're gonna believe. It makes no sense. Okay, it's controlled. Everything's
170 |145 |00:28:30,600 ~-~-> 00:28:39,180 |control, even when they're intervening manually, or taking it to levels that I'm going to teach you exists. But the problem is, I don't know which one they're
171 |146 |00:28:39,180 ~-~-> 00:28:48,900 |gonna go to because they're intervening manual. And because I don't know, with a great deal of probability, how to anticipate what they're going to do, because
172 |147 |00:28:49,170 ~-~-> 00:28:58,320 |many times whatever the Fed chairman would say, even if the rate announcement is in line are not in line with what everyone expects, could you see like in
173 |148 |00:28:58,320 ~-~-> 00:29:10,230 |calendars and fundamental websites, they'll say, if the Fed is hawkish or dovish, this would cause this to happen in the marketplace. And then when it
174 |149 |00:29:10,320 ~-~-> 00:29:19,710 |comes out, it comes to either expectation, or myths misses the expectation over whatever they think is going to happen with rates. And then the opposite
175 |150 |00:29:19,740 ~-~-> 00:29:28,170 |actually unfolds, well, then they'll say, Well, that's because it was already it was priced in weeks ago, but they didn't say that before that. So they're
176 |151 |00:29:28,170 ~-~-> 00:29:38,010 |looking for an excuse to justify something's already happened. I'm looking for a signature to justify why I think price is going to go somewhere. And I'm usually
177 |152 |00:29:38,010 ~-~-> 00:29:47,490 |right on days that are not having influence like this. And that's where I try to focus. I try to teach my students to focus there. That way, the, the
178 |153 |00:29:47,490 ~-~-> 00:29:57,840 |probabilities are in your favor, at least in my favor, as the analyst and if the analyst isn't correct, the trader that using the analysis isn't going to be
179 |154 |00:29:57,840 ~-~-> 00:30:06,810 |accurate either. So it goes back to You knowing what you're looking for, when you're looking for it in this does that environment that you're trying to
180 |155 |00:30:06,810 ~-~-> 00:30:20,820 |speculate in or observing, is it conducive for high probability in the first place. And whenever you have the Fed you talking, speaking, testifying, it's
181 |156 |00:30:20,820 ~-~-> 00:30:28,380 |equivalent to a rate announcement where you don't know the effects of the marketplace, you can all have, oh, they're going to cut rates are not going to
182 |157 |00:30:28,380 ~-~-> 00:30:37,950 |cut rates or increase rates. Everybody has an opinion. But that opinion means nothing. It has no bearing on what Mark is going to do period. They're going to
183 |158 |00:30:37,950 ~-~-> 00:30:42,720 |book the way they want the book. And it matters not how many people are buying and selling.
184 |159 |00:30:58,950 ~-~-> 00:31:01,080 |Dollar Index making a higher high here.
185 |160 |00:31:02,520 ~-~-> 00:31:14,310 |So we would want to see that low take him out. When he has that hasn't happened yet, but dollar has made a higher high. So if this doesn't make a lower low, we
186 |161 |00:31:14,310 ~-~-> 00:31:18,990 |might be seeing a short term load forming and need to trade up a little bit.
187 |162 |00:31:47,970 ~-~-> 00:31:57,720 |Coming off its highs Yes, with an attempt to reach into a deeper this gap.
188 |163 |00:32:19,920 ~-~-> 00:32:28,530 |There was by side here, an imbalance there. And what I'm actually looking at, I'm looking at the dollar index five minute chart and then scrolling to a 15
189 |164 |00:32:28,530 ~-~-> 00:32:38,190 |minute chart in an hourly chart. And monitoring does it continuously provide you that that it wants to keep going higher. So far, it hasn't made a higher high
190 |165 |00:32:38,190 ~-~-> 00:32:46,980 |than the high it's already produced. Which is problematic for ES continuing at least near term on the downside so
191 |166 |00:32:48,000 ~-~-> 00:32:51,720 |we're just watching to see what we get in terms of delivery only Yes.
192 |167 |00:32:56,670 ~-~-> 00:33:12,090 |Also, if you look at the Dow Jones Dow futures y m h 2023. It's made a lower low where it yes has not done so. So whenever we're looking at this, it gives reason
193 |168 |00:33:12,090 ~-~-> 00:33:23,610 |to be concerned about either consolidation or potential short term reversal. Many times when like I say this is a day where it wasn't a fit and I was short
194 |169 |00:33:23,610 ~-~-> 00:33:43,320 |already. Whenever I see situations like this, like the Dow making the lower low NASDAQ failing to make the level of well we can guess not making the level low
195 |170 |00:33:43,320 ~-~-> 00:33:58,890 |either. To me, I want to take more of the position off because it could could mean it could create a retracement higher against the position of head open. So
196 |171 |00:33:58,890 ~-~-> 00:34:02,850 |these are all things that I weigh in the balance as prices delivering
197 |172 |00:34:04,770 ~-~-> 00:34:15,780 |Dow index still hasn't had its higher high since it's warm. So far the highest one today is more 5.265.
198 |173 |00:34:30,990 ~-~-> 00:34:31,620 |I would want
199 |174 |00:34:31,620 ~-~-> 00:34:46,980 |to see I would want to see a continuing continuing continuing road higher in the dollar to get to 1051341 in a lower level EDS that would bring things back to
200 |175 |00:34:47,130 ~-~-> 00:34:56,940 |being symmetrical. So it means everything being equal. higher highs and lower lows in our index futures, whether it be es NASDAQ down
201 |176 |00:35:05,970 ~-~-> 00:35:08,370 |Watch our prices utilizing this old movie good
202 |177 |00:35:26,760 ~-~-> 00:35:32,070 |if you're new How do you know you're new you look at this move on the chart anything I wish I could have got some of that
203 |178 |00:35:34,080 ~-~-> 00:35:34,920 |that's influencing
204 |179 |00:35:37,560 ~-~-> 00:35:51,030 |someone that's not been around long enough to know that things repeat right Dollar Index is just dipping below that one in 5.21
205 |180 |00:36:07,590 ~-~-> 00:36:23,910 |If dollar slips lower okay syndrome words seem to have started to come back down into its rally up in trades into like one or 490 something like that I would be
206 |181 |00:36:23,910 ~-~-> 00:36:30,180 |watching to see this fair value gap become support and maybe run up into this area here
207 |182 |00:36:32,250 ~-~-> 00:36:33,270 |will be like this
208 |183 |00:36:36,330 ~-~-> 00:36:42,450 |and it's not a trade it says something to observes what I do on days like this I'm not pushing a button even in demo
209 |184 |00:36:49,980 ~-~-> 00:36:59,940 |so I'd be watching for it to draw up into this area here preferably coming back down and and touching the fair value got your support dollar slipping in here
210 |185 |00:37:12,870 ~-~-> 00:37:21,210 |now it was real time that I walked you through the idea of those loans not being confirmed. Okay, so that number I was telling you about if I was in a trade I'd
211 |186 |00:37:21,210 ~-~-> 00:37:36,420 |have most of my position off and this is generally where I'll be getting stopped out my stop would be about this high here trailed lower if it was a day not
212 |187 |00:37:36,960 ~-~-> 00:37:51,090 |because we're not trading. But if it were any other day and I'll short my stock would have been trailed here because of that reluctance of seeing lower lows in
213 |188 |00:37:51,090 ~-~-> 00:38:07,290 |ES and NASDAQ while the Dow did make the loan if you missed it just watch the recording go back and you'll see me explain that and show you the charts if it
214 |189 |00:38:07,290 ~-~-> 00:38:15,300 |runs to this area here without returning to this that would be a day or that would be a trade that I would miss if it was any other day because I would
215 |190 |00:38:15,300 ~-~-> 00:38:26,100 |absolutely if it wasn't fit today if it would have came down to this level here I would have said no watch this as a potential long two here I wouldn't do it
216 |191 |00:38:26,100 ~-~-> 00:38:28,860 |today but if it was any other day I wouldn't be taking that trade
217 |192 |00:38:30,000 ~-~-> 00:38:31,140 |it'd be 10 Him
218 |193 |00:38:38,010 ~-~-> 00:38:46,350 |we have a buy side and balance sell side and efficiency reading from this candles high in this candles low the one candle in the middle all that big
219 |194 |00:38:46,350 ~-~-> 00:38:50,430 |movement here. You're looking at this high that low.
220 |195 |00:39:20,070 ~-~-> 00:39:24,810 |midpoint between these two reference points is consequent encouragement
221 |196 |00:39:27,210 ~-~-> 00:39:35,460 |because it's an inefficiency or gap. If it was an order block it will be mean threshold and this is consequent parchment for zero to four and a quarter
222 |197 |00:40:16,470 ~-~-> 00:40:18,270 |Okay, so that's that's constant encouragement
223 |198 |00:40:24,840 ~-~-> 00:40:33,210 |now have two things. Here's a discount. This one, here's the first one. The second one is this fair value gap. I mentioned that if it returned back to it
224 |199 |00:40:33,540 ~-~-> 00:40:42,810 |without touching this area here on another day, not today. I would utilize that as a long to get up to here for about a champion, the one we've done repriced,
225 |200 |00:40:43,800 ~-~-> 00:40:53,400 |all the way through this bottom analysis on efficiency and we're in a fair value gap. So watch and see if it delivers from here up to here. If you had the
226 |201 |00:40:53,400 ~-~-> 00:41:08,340 |benefit of toggling between Dixie DX why do that when one minute chart you want to see Dollar Index not rally it can stay consolidated or preferably go lower
227 |202 |00:41:08,340 ~-~-> 00:41:16,980 |into its bison down so some efficiency on its five minute chart candle at 10am?
228 |203 |00:42:03,960 ~-~-> 00:42:15,930 |Watch this way you wouldn't want to see a tree below midpoint that constant encouragement it can touch the fear of a guy now but I'd rather see it not do
229 |204 |00:42:15,930 ~-~-> 00:42:16,770 |that because I've done it
230 |205 |00:42:26,490 ~-~-> 00:42:28,680 |good advice on dialysis on efficiencies well
231 |206 |00:42:46,260 ~-~-> 00:42:48,270 |the risk would be on this candle as well.
232 |207 |00:43:44,910 ~-~-> 00:43:46,200 |See where the bodies are forming
233 |208 |00:43:47,700 ~-~-> 00:43:54,600 |the whips can do the damage they can trade outside the lines the bodies of the candles that are monitoring and watching all that.
234 |209 |00:44:40,800 ~-~-> 00:44:43,950 |Dollar Index has a fair value gap at
235 |210 |00:44:45,900 ~-~-> 00:45:02,070 |women 1021 handle that's like the last line of defense for me because it's inside the breaker for dollar if you look at the down close game holy women, dx
236 |211 |00:45:02,070 ~-~-> 00:45:13,710 |why that came to being in 1012. So we can trade up into the fair value gap that's at the 1021 One minute candle on Etsy. And inside that that
237 |212 |00:45:15,059 ~-~-> 00:45:18,149 |bearish breaker, which will be 10 twelves in a minute
238 |213 |00:45:23,550 ~-~-> 00:45:24,630 |what's inside that now
239 |214 |00:45:33,120 ~-~-> 00:45:46,200 |so far it's giving us feedback. See it here, there's the gap year after breaker. So you can see real time
240 |215 |00:45:52,470 ~-~-> 00:45:57,780 |that's five handles so far to screenshot that has been taken out with short term high yield.
241 |216 |00:46:54,960 ~-~-> 00:46:56,910 |Struggling with the dollar here
242 |217 |00:47:16,680 ~-~-> 00:47:18,930 |came up not closed yet on the screen that were
243 |218 |00:47:20,190 ~-~-> 00:47:22,800 |adjusted when it does close.
244 |219 |00:47:31,680 ~-~-> 00:47:41,520 |So my eyes on that fair value got and bear spray for $1 index when it's one minute chart I just showed you. As long as you don't talk about that, we should
245 |220 |00:47:41,520 ~-~-> 00:47:55,200 |have no problem. There you go. So there's the outline of a real real time trade idea. Did you need to see a button being pushed now. But the logic is there,
246 |221 |00:47:55,410 ~-~-> 00:48:05,190 |it's not there, I would fail. You wouldn't be seeing the colony outline. Delivering again. I have this consequent it's not really a consequent
247 |222 |00:48:05,190 ~-~-> 00:48:15,960 |encroachment. But it's the level of thin projection off of this here. And also if we measure the consequent encroachment of that city
248 |223 |00:48:20,670 ~-~-> 00:48:29,280 |nobody's excited nobody's surprised to hear any animation in my voice know the old
249 |224 |00:48:30,750 ~-~-> 00:48:44,130 |same stuff last few decades. So consequent curtailment of the city would be this level here but from this love that high in dollars really has has really slipped
250 |225 |00:48:44,130 ~-~-> 00:48:45,900 |lower as we were expecting him to do
251 |226 |00:48:48,870 ~-~-> 00:48:52,590 |so that's that's probably random
252 |227 |00:48:58,260 ~-~-> 00:49:07,620 |so there's the breaker outline we talked about inside that breaker, you know, the theory that I was mentioning
253 |228 |00:49:23,760 ~-~-> 00:49:34,050 |so that's, that's the anatomy of intermarket relationships, and how we look at one thing versus the other. We clearly important level that mentioned before,
254 |229 |00:49:34,050 ~-~-> 00:49:41,280 |which is the rejection block on the daily chart, that's what this dashed line is. Go back and look at old recordings. And you'll see that they talked about
255 |230 |00:49:41,280 ~-~-> 00:49:51,570 |that that's not just because today because the daily chart pdra It's important, you'll refer to it again. This damn close candle between the high here in this
256 |231 |00:49:51,570 ~-~-> 00:50:00,960 |high here is point one, swing high one swing high two, between swing high one and two, the low in between. That's the bearish breaker. It's a breaker because
257 |232 |00:50:00,960 ~-~-> 00:50:12,120 |we've went below it here and have taken by side, then the market comes back up trades into what an imbalance inside of a breaker. lower dollar means what risk
258 |233 |00:50:12,300 ~-~-> 00:50:25,170 |on risk on means what for ES higher, just random, higher? No, we have to get a measurement. My I was looking at this high to that low midpoint in that area
259 |234 |00:50:25,170 ~-~-> 00:50:34,470 |first imbalance was here. There's no fair value gaps in here. So I took your attention here. And then if we got overzealous on the upside, and because of the
260 |235 |00:50:34,470 ~-~-> 00:50:44,880 |burqa on dollar, that means using swing projections from the Fed banker to that low to that high takes us up to this level here. It may not get there, I don't
261 |236 |00:50:44,880 ~-~-> 00:50:53,460 |care if it does. I'm not. I'm not going to make anything. I'm not going to lose anything. But I'm showing you the logic. If this was a day where the Fed wasn't
262 |237 |00:50:53,460 ~-~-> 00:51:04,020 |impacting price action, if they're not intervening, then I would be in there doing that trade did you'd watch me trading what the returns of the fair value
263 |238 |00:51:04,020 ~-~-> 00:51:20,400 |gap here, my stop would be down there. So there you go. You would want to be taking partials here. Because you're inside the lower bracket of between this
264 |239 |00:51:20,520 ~-~-> 00:51:32,220 |candles high in the fifth projection and the consequent encroachment. So you're encroaching on a real premium in the marketplace. So you want to distribute your
265 |240 |00:51:32,220 ~-~-> 00:51:42,120 |long positions. At times when the market is at premium. We don't need an overbought indicator to indicate whether we're looking at the range itself.
266 |241 |00:51:50,220 ~-~-> 00:51:51,870 |Does that make sense? Yes.
267 |242 |00:51:53,400 ~-~-> 00:51:58,620 |You see how it reacted down here, he went twice. But look at the body staying inside between these two, we make these lines.
268 |243 |00:52:09,330 ~-~-> 00:52:18,120 |So in between those two heavy blue lines, the bodies are telling you the narrative that it's going to respect this imbalance. And then the price to a
269 |244 |00:52:18,120 ~-~-> 00:52:27,600 |premium was the premium near terms this high. Then it's the imbalance here, which is a signal in the form of a fear Vega saw something balanced by some
270 |245 |00:52:27,600 ~-~-> 00:52:35,280 |efficiency between this camera as well, that candles have that little movement on that one candle. That's what I highlighted. So it went back up into that. And
271 |246 |00:52:35,280 ~-~-> 00:52:44,790 |then we have this area in here. Between this midpoint of that candles high concern our candles well, that candles high. That's what that measurement is
272 |247 |00:52:44,790 ~-~-> 00:52:56,220 |here for. But the projection from this low to this high just with a fig and kept trying to build a confluence of levels to justify how far this retracement can
273 |248 |00:52:56,220 ~-~-> 00:53:04,050 |go. When really on a day like this, you would have the bulk of it off inside that first premium right here definitely.
274 |249 |00:53:06,510 ~-~-> 00:53:07,740 |Make sense? Yes, sir.
275 |250 |00:53:11,130 ~-~-> 00:53:26,790 |So this is a run from here to that high. So this level here at 4022. Just getting to this old high back here is nine and a half handles. It's not it's not
276 |251 |00:53:26,790 ~-~-> 00:53:34,800 |even taking out the by side to get my own handles. So if you had a limit order worried about here for your first partial, let's say you had to have 300 tracks
277 |252 |00:53:34,800 ~-~-> 00:53:46,620 |long, you could take one off on the limit here, right at the high rate at the high. So you're gonna give up the the trophy of having even 10 handles but you
278 |253 |00:53:46,620 ~-~-> 00:53:54,210 |don't care. That's not how you do it, because we have to make sure that the factor of difference between the bid and the ask allows you to exit and then you
279 |254 |00:53:54,210 ~-~-> 00:54:03,240 |would take off the remaining two here, were at the first low, it's just candles high, you put your limit on rate at that level, as soon as it hits if it digs
280 |255 |00:54:03,240 ~-~-> 00:54:11,730 |into that range, one tick above it, your limit order to sell would be a market order to sell at market so then you'd have two contracts with the three you
281 |256 |00:54:11,730 ~-~-> 00:54:23,040 |bought at the fair value gap down here. And then paying for either the midpoint or the upper end of the fair value gap less one tick because if it trades and
282 |257 |00:54:23,040 ~-~-> 00:54:32,790 |prints the candles love price here, which is the high that shaded area you want to be one tick below that to allow for the bid and ask spread to allow your
283 |258 |00:54:32,790 ~-~-> 00:54:35,040 |limit order to get you off on that last third contract.
284 |259 |00:54:35,940 ~-~-> 00:54:37,140 |You probably yes sir.
285 |260 |00:54:42,120 ~-~-> 00:54:48,180 |I think my friends and neighbors that's gonna be it for today because if I talk anymore, I won't be able to talk tomorrow. And we'll have another round of
286 |261 |00:54:48,180 ~-~-> 00:54:56,370 |audits tomorrow. The fisherman talking to 10 o'clock. I'll give you a real quick look at the dollar index if you found today's live stream and commentary.
287 |262 |00:54:57,330 ~-~-> 00:55:09,360 |Productive informative you me a thumbs up. I like that as a futures contract. If you found today's livestream helpful, and you were able to attract this real
288 |263 |00:55:09,360 ~-~-> 00:55:19,470 |time with this, and if it was informative to you, I appreciate a thumbs up, it's free to do it doesn't cost you anything. I promise no one knows you can do it,
289 |264 |00:55:19,770 ~-~-> 00:55:27,990 |or would have done it. It's all private. It's just your way of letting me know that you appreciate what I'm doing here. I don't have to be doing this. And I'm
290 |265 |00:55:27,990 ~-~-> 00:55:37,230 |enjoying it. But I just want to make sure I'm getting feedback. And if you're on Twitter, if you'd like to follow me on Twitter, let me know how you fare today
291 |266 |00:55:37,230 ~-~-> 00:55:42,840 |following along in this final real quick, we'll just pass through the other indices.
292 |267 |00:55:46,800 ~-~-> 00:55:51,180 |So it's traded into its city. And it's where I get
293 |268 |00:55:51,180 ~-~-> 00:55:52,860 |that I didn't know that there would be comparable
294 |269 |00:55:57,900 ~-~-> 00:56:01,770 |Dow Jones, which is the weaker than
295 |270 |00:56:01,770 ~-~-> 00:56:11,940 |no imbalances, and you'll see that none of these candles have been in balance and then
296 |271 |00:56:12,539 ~-~-> 00:56:28,259 |retreated. The just like we just fell shorter than the high of 364 items in 363. So never made its way up into the city. So that it's going to be today.
297 |272 |00:56:30,179 ~-~-> 00:56:35,429 |Appreciate you hanging out with us. Until I talk to you tomorrow. Lord willing, you safe