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ICT YT - 2023-01-30 - ICT January 30 -  Market Review

Version 1.1 by Drunk Monkey on 2023-01-31 08:52

Outline

01:15 - Daily chart december 13.

03:18 - Why you need to know the gaps in the market -.

05:20 - The order block from the daily charts.

07:23 - What is the fair value of this chart?

09:35 - What are candlestick charts and what are they?

11:37 - Finding the midpoint of the consequent encroachment threshold.

13:42 - What’s the bias?

15:58 - What is the weekly gap?

18:02 - Two times five handles, 10 handles, two points to a bias based on everything I outlined.

20:06 - What’s going on in price action.

Transcript

1 00:01:15,990 --> 00:01:28,590 ICT: Good evening, folks. So I was trying to do a recording. But for whatever reason Camtasia was acting up, it was giving me errors on the two recordings I
2 00:01:28,590 --> 00:01:39,150 did. So I wasted an hour and 20 minutes of my time trying to record something. So I don't have the time to do a Twitter space tonight, I'm tired. And I'm gonna
3 00:01:39,150 --> 00:01:54,960 go over this here. So that way, it'll be hopefully enough. Alright, so real quick, I want to get this out of the way. I mentioned on Friday, that there
4 00:01:54,960 --> 00:02:07,830 would be several other levels on the upside that I was interested in, should we have continued up. And let me take you real quick over here. I promise I will
5 00:02:09,390 --> 00:02:21,930 try to be too long tonight. And they usually say that kind of stuff. And it becomes like a field trip. But we had this old high, that was 40 90.75. And then
6 00:02:21,930 --> 00:02:35,580 we had the next level. And upside was the Costco encroachment of the candle, this daily chart, December 13. So that's this level here. So between that this
7 00:02:35,580 --> 00:02:50,070 level here, this high in that consequent encroachment, if you put a Fibonacci on to measure that level, the here and here it's 410 4.25. That's this level ahead
8 00:02:50,070 --> 00:03:05,400 over there. And then from that point, we have this level halfway, and then Costco encroachment level there. So what happens after that is we have the low
9 00:03:05,970 --> 00:03:20,910 the midpoint, the high. So from high, we have this next level here. That's 25% 50% 75% In Terminus. So that's what these other levels were for. Okay. And
10 00:03:20,940 --> 00:03:28,020 obviously, if it went over your head, it's not important anyway, because you'll probably see more of this stuff throughout this year. But if some of you are
11 00:03:28,020 --> 00:03:39,570 looking for that to be explained, you can see that being explained here. All right. And on the 15 minute time frame.
12 00:03:47,430 --> 00:04:00,930 This morning, if you haven't looked at my tweets, for today, January 30 2023. Around 815 825, in that vicinity in New York, local time, January 30 2023, I
13 00:04:01,140 --> 00:04:13,170 posted a pre market analysis video where I outlined this very thing here. Okay, the new new week opening gap. I'm going to spare you the two minutes or so that
14 00:04:13,170 --> 00:04:22,530 I did that. A nice guy. So I'm going to drag you through 45 minutes of other stuff right now, but go through the tweets this morning. And you'll see that all
15 00:04:22,530 --> 00:04:34,110 the things I'm outlining here are before the fact so the market was trading down here around 4052 vicinity area. And I mentioned that if you look at the market
16 00:04:34,140 --> 00:04:49,770 with just electronic trading hours only you miss the gaps like this up in here. So it's important for you to know where they are. And the way you see them is
17 00:04:49,770 --> 00:04:57,480 use regular trading hours and electronic trading hours. That's how you find them. Okay. And I'll walk you through a procedure like I did this morning when
18 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:06,690 it's important to us. Sometimes it's not important to use them, okay? And you'll see those proceeds. There's procedures rather, and processes that I go through,
19 00:05:06,930 --> 00:05:15,420 doesn't mean I'm going to be right all the time. But I think everybody has been paying attention this year, I got your attention, don't i. So, all I'm asking is
20 00:05:15,420 --> 00:05:27,690 just come every day show up with a notepad and you'll, you'll learn more things. But we have the gap, which we traded up into later morning. And this level here
21 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:44,970 is the order block from the daily charts, I'm gonna go back and show you what that is. If you look at this, candles high right here, the date is the 25th. So
22 00:05:44,970 --> 00:05:57,870 if you drop a horizontal Ray on that candles high, the high being 404 0.50. That is the order block. Okay, so it's also the low of the February gap between this
23 00:05:57,870 --> 00:06:10,890 candles low on the 27th. Friday. In last Wednesday's high, that one single candle on Thursday, that's your fear Vega. So we'll drop down into the 15 minute
24 00:06:10,890 --> 00:06:18,630 time frame again. So you can see how we had that reaction off of the order block. on the daily chart, it only went down one quarter of a point below it.
25 00:06:19,170 --> 00:06:34,290 What's the low that candle? I'm sorry, I misspoke. It's a half a point, the low was 4040. And the level was 400. I'm sorry, 404 0.50. So half a half a point
26 00:06:34,710 --> 00:06:43,260 variance than reaction centered higher trading up into that level here. Now right in here is where I was tweeting and talking about how the pre market is
27 00:06:43,260 --> 00:06:52,890 likely to see us return back to that new week opening gap. So what's the small little videos on my Twitter feed, it'll show you how to map this very specific
28 00:06:53,100 --> 00:07:02,370 range out and what its use is meant to help you throughout the trading day. So we're gonna drop down into a five minute chart.
29 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:16,020 And this is the fair pay gap I mentioned this morning, said that's important, we'll use as an upside draw, add these levels here annotated in the chart, they
30 00:07:16,020 --> 00:07:24,360 were just made darker so that we can see it because once I posted it on Twitter, it's a little faint, but you'll clearly see that they're there. That's a five
31 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:33,840 minute fair value got in if we're bullish, or expecting price to get up to here. Once it gets above it, we'd like to look for these levels here to act as what
32 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:43,620 support. Okay, right away, you can see a whole lot of business going on here. Now, I'll zoom into a lower timeframe in a second. But the premise was I wanted
33 00:07:43,620 --> 00:07:52,620 to see it go higher. And I outlined all that this morning, I've walked you through the logic as to why I think it's that way. And we didn't have any real
34 00:07:52,620 --> 00:08:03,420 economic news to really base a whole lot of this on except for this is what I refer to as a soft bias. A soft bias is where only technicals are used. There's
35 00:08:03,420 --> 00:08:13,740 no injection of volatility, there's no calendar event, no big 830 News driver. So you kind of like have to wait until we get closer than at 930 equities
36 00:08:13,740 --> 00:08:24,300 opening in New York time. Okay, so I'll drop into the one minute chart and get this over for you. Cuz I know it's probably taking too long for some of you
37 00:08:24,300 --> 00:08:36,180 younger folks get to the point ICT. The point is, you're in the right place. Right? So this low here, right here in here. Notice those are relative equal
38 00:08:36,180 --> 00:08:46,200 lows. Well, why didn't it go below that? It doesn't need to. Why did you have this fear may get muted here, because it took out this short term high. So this
39 00:08:46,230 --> 00:08:53,520 short term high becomes a shift in market structure that's bullish. Why should I expect that? Because I outlined it this morning that we were likely to go back
40 00:08:53,520 --> 00:09:06,600 to that new week opening gap, the stuff that's up here. Okay, so that's the draw on liquidity. That's the part I'm gonna be teaching you this year live. So that
41 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:14,820 way you can see it, understand it, know what it's like to do it on your own, and have plenty experience doing it. And you'll be able to determine where the
42 00:09:14,820 --> 00:09:22,830 market's going to go to next. Because if you get that figured out, that's 80% of the battle right away. So you can go in and look at all these little intricate
43 00:09:22,830 --> 00:09:31,170 things inside of price action. So we have a low that was taken out here. We don't need this load taken out. Why? Because it shifts above this low I'm sorry,
44 00:09:31,170 --> 00:09:39,750 this high market structure is now bullish, does it leave a fair value gap? Yes. Trades now the halfway which is consequent encouragement of the gap. Some of
45 00:09:39,750 --> 00:09:49,530 your new is going to the right of your head these terms I promise you I'm talking about all these things continuously explain what they are. Three
46 00:09:49,560 --> 00:09:57,360 consecutive down close candles is a bullish or block which is also the midpoint of that gap. Gap is defined by this candles low in this candles high the one
47 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:05,340 single candle middle. That's the fair value gap. Here market rallies creates a small little volume and balance. And here I like that here is this down close
48 00:10:05,340 --> 00:10:14,610 candle, which is a propulsion block. Okay, propulsion block is a down closed candle that approaches or goes into a previous order block that's lower, which
49 00:10:14,610 --> 00:10:24,510 is what we have here. I like to see nothing more than half of that candle be traded to and we see that occurring here. Look at the bodies, yes, we get a
50 00:10:24,510 --> 00:10:34,320 wick, but look at the bodies expecting return back to this midpoint. Sure. But look at the precision there. That is perfect, that's algorithmic. When you look
51 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:41,610 at how I look at price this year, you're never going to look at a candlestick chart ever again, the same way, you're not even going to reach for a bull flag,
52 00:10:41,820 --> 00:10:49,410 you're not going to look for a head and shoulders pattern, you're never going to reach for a diagonal trendline those things are going to be cast aside. And
53 00:10:49,410 --> 00:10:58,290 you're gonna focus in on the open high, low and close. That's all the algorithms working with, it's using time. Okay, so the time of day here, we're approaching
54 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:07,290 the equities opening. We have relative equal highs here, what's above that bison liquidity, and more specifically, those orange level or a five minute fair value
55 00:11:07,290 --> 00:11:15,360 gap. We're bullish, we want to see a trade through that. So it'll act as a speed bump. But it's not a barrier or a brick wall. So you can see what's happening
56 00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:25,050 here, it stops, it consolidates rallies up above it and comes right back down into what this candle right here is a breaker, we have a low high lower low. So
57 00:11:25,050 --> 00:11:35,460 sellside below these lows here has been taken out, it's been absorbed, then we went higher. Find the breaker which is the up close candle inside the swing high
58 00:11:35,460 --> 00:11:45,030 between the low and the lower low. Although this is taught my channel, find the midpoint of that that is mean threshold, it trades down into it here. And I'm
59 00:11:45,030 --> 00:11:48,060 accumulating long positions here within this volume imbalance as well.
60 00:11:56,460 --> 00:12:04,260 This is what you watch me do in the morning recording, or I was appealing my long positions here talking about how can go down the consequent encroachment
61 00:12:04,380 --> 00:12:13,050 midpoint here to that's permissible. And then we would see it rally up into this shaded area here. There's my executions. And then later in the day I did the
62 00:12:13,050 --> 00:12:24,330 move into the target actually called in pre market analysis. So we'll take this off for a second so you can see what I'm referring to going forward. So the
63 00:12:24,330 --> 00:12:33,840 market does in fact, Vault higher. Look at the bodies respecting the fair value gap I mentioned ahead of time this morning, comes back down in this move here is
64 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:45,960 a buy side and sell side and efficiency that is not a liquidity void, it gets called that it's not this right here is a liquidity void. Take that off for a
65 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:53,940 second. See there's a there's a gap between this candles high and closing price being the same thing. And this candle is low and it's opening. Same thing.
66 00:12:54,150 --> 00:13:05,610 There's no price touching or overlapping between these two price points. That is a volume. I'm sorry, that is a liquidity void. A volume imbalance is my range
67 00:13:05,610 --> 00:13:14,550 between where one candles body and another candles body doesn't touch but there are wicks that overlap in between. So there's the difference between volume
68 00:13:14,550 --> 00:13:24,360 imbalance and real liquidity void their mind and you're not going to find them books until I mentioned the mxolisi buyside and bounce sell sign efficiency
69 00:13:24,390 --> 00:13:31,980 here. So it's inefficient in what cell sites so you're gonna be waiting for it to come back down. How far can it come back down midpoint which is consequent
70 00:13:31,980 --> 00:13:39,240 corrosion. So by finding balance, sign efficiency, consequent encouragement already, these guys out there that want crossovers and moving averages are
71 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:46,710 already thinking this is too complex. It's not complex. It's just you don't know the language yet. All we're doing is looking for areas where the markets going
72 00:13:46,710 --> 00:13:57,480 to pull back into an inefficiency or run stops and go up to a level to fill in an inefficiency for run stops. That's it. And the only way you have to worry
73 00:13:57,480 --> 00:14:07,170 about anything is first determining what's the bias that's where you determine is it likely to go higher likely to go lower. And then you just look for two
74 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:16,050 different parameters one or the other. They don't they both don't exist. And then you simply read the tape. You want to go forward to market rallies up by
75 00:14:16,050 --> 00:14:22,320 Sanibel Southside in efficiency again much like this one here. trades down to the last claim candle here which is the bullish order block. They're perfectly
76 00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:33,660 what's the opening price on that candle 405 8.50 What's the low on this candle here? 405 8.50 Perfect, you can improve upon it. I know it's wonderful. Rallies
77 00:14:33,660 --> 00:14:47,340 again by Sanibel. It's all sudden efficiency. What's this candle here? Bullish order block. What's the high that candle right there? 406 1.75. Now here's where
78 00:14:47,340 --> 00:14:56,070 it gets a little tricky. We have a gap here that shaded area it can return back to consequent current midpoint. We're all way down to the bottom. Look for the
79 00:14:56,070 --> 00:15:08,700 body stop. The damage is done by the wicks. But the narrative is told to you by the bodies. What's the high of that candle here? 406 1.75 What's the close of
80 00:15:08,700 --> 00:15:23,610 that candle? 406 1.75 Perfect. That's algorithmic. The market rallies. scrunches up was a little weird looking, where I was all the way up into here. And what's
81 00:15:23,610 --> 00:15:36,720 it trading into that right there? Let's scrub back and do some further investigation. I know, ITT, if you just do this trick I know on trading, you'll
82 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:47,790 be able to go back and do this and do that. I know. I know. I'm an old dinosaur. I like to do things. I'm stubbornly. Alright, so between this candle and this
83 00:15:47,790 --> 00:15:58,980 candle here, which doesn't look all that obvious right now, but let me go back up to a five minute just to communicate what I want to show you here. All right,
84 00:15:58,980 --> 00:15:59,850 right in here.
85 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:21,210 If you look at how we went back up into Friday's close, which is this here at 411. See that closing price was 08400. And then we opened on Sunday right down
86 00:16:21,210 --> 00:16:32,070 here. So that's what I'm see I'm giving you extra value. I'm saving somebody the time to go look at that today. This is the opening gap on Sunday. We went up to
87 00:16:32,070 --> 00:16:45,150 it. Filled it in, came back down. Now we are what we have read delivered to this range. The range between Friday's close and Sunday's opening. We deliver what by
88 00:16:45,150 --> 00:16:55,560 side and then sell side. Is that a balanced price range yet? No. It's got to leave it to rallies back up to where consequent coaching midpoint, then it
89 00:16:55,560 --> 00:17:06,810 leaves it. Now when it leaves it, it does so here. What does it leave in its wake that fairway get right there. It's the only one that's going to that level
90 00:17:06,810 --> 00:17:16,860 is important. I said this morning in the pre market analysis that it can return back to this favor I got on the sorry, the weekly gap opening. And it does not
91 00:17:16,890 --> 00:17:25,080 need to come back to Friday's closer up here. Why did I say that? Because of what it is outlined here. The open here on Sunday, traded back after Friday's
92 00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:34,170 close, delivered what by side then sell side, then halfway it fails to go higher, and then leaves the range. The only thing that's inefficient at this
93 00:17:34,170 --> 00:17:47,010 point now is that small little Faraday got right there. Now, scrub on over here. And look how perfect that is. Where'd you get out of ICT, I didn't get a perfect
94 00:17:47,010 --> 00:17:57,510 exit. And this is what I I have a struggle with my exits. That's my weak point in my trading. So you can see the high was 4070 even. And I only got out at 4076
95 00:17:57,510 --> 00:18:08,670 and a quarter. And I wasn't even able to time it where I can get out in between that gap. So I mean, it's still better than five handles again. So two times
96 00:18:08,790 --> 00:18:18,060 five handles five handles 10 handles doing two points to a level I was calling for to a bias based on everything technol that I've outlined. And everything was
97 00:18:18,060 --> 00:18:34,140 just beautiful today, beautiful. And later in the day, a little bit of a messy move, but I want to pull this out now close it and take the executions off. I
98 00:18:34,140 --> 00:18:44,070 apologize, I'm usually much more organized. And I just want to get through it. I'm kind of tired. So we had this low here prior to this run up. So what's gonna
99 00:18:44,070 --> 00:18:53,190 be below that low sell side liquidity, okay, why? Because we had that used off of what the daily order block. Remember, this is the low of the daily fair value
100 00:18:53,190 --> 00:19:03,780 got. And I know I'm saying these things, and it's zipping by the new viewers here, go back and listen to the video. Again, it won't be that long in listen to
101 00:19:03,780 --> 00:19:12,660 what I'm outlining on a daily chart, what this level is, okay, first time it hits it, it rallies away and goes to the level outline this morning, perfectly.
102 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:21,300 Now, this moment right here, other retail traders would think it's probably going to keep going higher. I'm not interested in seeing going higher, the
103 00:19:21,300 --> 00:19:29,250 market starts to break down. And we get below that fair value gap on the five minute chart. Now it's going to act as resistance we wick through it a little
104 00:19:29,250 --> 00:19:38,550 bit into an order block. Does it break lower again? Yes, it does. Does the body start respecting that fair value gap and here it does. So the next time it
105 00:19:38,550 --> 00:19:47,580 returns if it can return to what can we reasonably expect? The low and in the half point consequent encroachment look at the body of the candle. It's half of
106 00:19:47,580 --> 00:20:01,650 this range. You're trying to tell me okay, you're trying to tell me that retail traders all came together. The planets aligned in every thing Kumbaya, they
107 00:20:01,650 --> 00:20:11,520 match up exactly where I'm telling you the algorithms going to head turning points. Get out of here, no way. Absolutely not. There's much more deeper things
108 00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:20,220 going on in price action, besides your bull flags and your head and shoulders patterns in Elliott Wave and harmonic patterns that I'm sorry. But there's a
109 00:20:20,220 --> 00:20:28,020 real technical science to this, as much as the Goldman boys don't like to admit it. This is really what's going on. It's all algorithmic, it's absolutely
110 00:20:28,020 --> 00:20:42,720 controlled, 100%. price breaks lower. What's it creating here? Fear Vega, rallies right into here, what time of day 115, it's a little too early for my
111 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:59,130 liking. 121 25 130, that's usually when I'm expecting the afternoon move. Here is two o'clock, that's a more favorable time of day. And we have a balanced
112 00:20:59,130 --> 00:21:07,170 price range where we have one rally up, and then one rally to the downside, it's this small little area in here, it's a fair value get on both sides. So it's
113 00:21:07,170 --> 00:21:14,910 gonna have a hard time going through that. And that's what you're seeing here. Where's the sell side, below these relative equal lows, and below that live
114 00:21:14,910 --> 00:21:24,540 there. And I was in another YouTuber who I like, and I'm supporting. So don't take this out of context, Patrick, but Patrick Weiland, he has a live stream he
115 00:21:24,540 --> 00:21:33,780 calls his own moves. He's, he's doing out there every single day, and he's another YouTuber, I like an you're welcome to go check his channel out. Please
116 00:21:33,780 --> 00:21:39,090 don't go there and talk about me because that's not what this is about, you know, he's putting his time and energy into trying to show you how to do this
117 00:21:39,090 --> 00:21:50,040 stuff his way. And that's cool. But I posted that 4045 was where I was looking for for the afternoon. And, you know, the fair value gap show here, where if if
118 00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:58,650 it's below, it's going to be acting as what resistance so when it hits the 4058 level starts to break down, we're gonna be looking for 4045 and 4045 was nailed
119 00:21:58,650 --> 00:22:07,740 here, ran up into a Faraday gap broke down relative equal lows, bounced price range in here, trust me, you'll hear more about this stuff. All year long, it'll
120 00:22:07,740 --> 00:22:16,170 make more sense to you seeing live called explained that way you can see it, if I can't do it live. Okay, it's going to be of no use to you. That's the whole
121 00:22:16,170 --> 00:22:24,150 reason why I come out here this year. So that way you can see it, I can walk you through it give you a better understanding. That way, you can see there's no
122 00:22:24,180 --> 00:22:32,250 cherry picking. Okay. I mean, I walked the whole day out this morning, even before the marketing started trading. So bounced price range here, and then it's
123 00:22:32,250 --> 00:22:40,920 gonna attack that low right there. Why should it be attacking that low, because this is where the majority of the move this morning started. And traders want to
124 00:22:40,980 --> 00:22:49,740 want to fund level are going to have their orders down here. What kind of orders sell stops, they're not in the habit of running up, and cheering and trailing
125 00:22:49,740 --> 00:22:56,910 their stop loss. Because they're trying to catch more sizable moves. Well, what fund manager is going to be holding it, you'd be surprised how a lot of them
126 00:22:56,910 --> 00:23:03,150 don't know what the hell they're doing. Just because they're running a fund doesn't mean they're profitable. Just because they have a fun doesn't mean they
127 00:23:03,150 --> 00:23:13,200 know what to do. So, but they have a lot of money behind it. And that's where the markets gonna go where the money is, where are the orders, not the harmonic
128 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:20,670 crab patterns, okay, not these Elliot wave counts, you don't need to count anything, just count your profits. That's all you got to worry about. Show up
129 00:23:20,670 --> 00:23:29,670 every single day, show up every single day with a notepad. And I promise you, I will deposit more understanding in you than you'll get from any other books out
130 00:23:29,670 --> 00:23:40,230 there to talks about technical analysis. And I promise, I'm going to do it in such a way where it will be fun. It'll be engaging, you'll have drills, homework
131 00:23:40,230 --> 00:23:47,550 that you'll want to do. Not like it was when you were in school. And you'll feel better about what you've learned. At the end of the week. There'll be so much
132 00:23:47,550 --> 00:23:55,140 more understanding that you don't even really understand you're gonna see, but I know and I can't wait to share it with you. So hopefully you found something
133 00:23:55,500 --> 00:24:03,510 insightful. Hopefully I didn't run through it too quick. I know I'm usually long winded and go into a lot more detail. But I'm tired. So I gotta get some rest.
134 00:24:03,540 --> 00:24:07,200 Otherwise I won't be to assault you on Twitter tomorrow. Until next time,