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ICT YT - 2021-03-20 - ICT Forex Interactive Learning Experience - Scalping OTE Setups.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-07 05:14
1 00:00:28,710 --> 00:00:39,630 ICT: Alright folks, welcome back a little bit of our Friday session with ICT.  Alright, we're looking at intraday scalping, in the Forex market.
2 00:00:45,810 --> 00:00:55,500 Alright, so we're gonna be covering briefly for those that are new to my work.  This is the traditional open, high low close bar many of you are probably
3 00:00:55,500 --> 00:01:07,290 accustomed to using a candlestick when you're looking at charting. But I want to cover the central tenants to how I interpret price, how I read price, and then
4 00:01:07,410 --> 00:01:17,970 give you some homework to practice throughout this coming week. And then I'm going to review it with you in a video next Friday, and give you some inside
5 00:01:17,970 --> 00:01:29,520 teachings. But it's important that you go through, do your best, it may not be something you understand exactly what you're supposed to be doing. It's okay, if
6 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:37,980 you're that new. But if you've been around for a while, and you've looked at some of my content, you probably know what I'm looking for. So with that, let's
7 00:01:37,980 --> 00:01:51,870 cover again, the architecture of the daily range. The open, if this is a classic by day, it's typically the day that everything goes up in the market. And we're
8 00:01:51,870 --> 00:02:01,410 going to specifically deal with forex here. So all the foreign crosses against the dollar might go up this particular day It opens or the opening price for
9 00:02:01,410 --> 00:02:11,460 that particular trading day opens here hypothetically trades down very short distance from the opening, large expansion on the upside and closes near the
10 00:02:11,460 --> 00:02:24,960 high of the day. That's a classic buy day, the open when things are bullish, tends to be in the lower quarter of the daily range. And generally, the low is
11 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:37,530 not much below that. When it's bullish. So opens, goes down finds the low, they first rallies up all day long, and then closes near the high the day. The high
12 00:02:38,070 --> 00:02:46,800 is the highest price in that daily range. It's not important for you to know exactly what that price is. Okay, so for this homework assignment in this
13 00:02:47,910 --> 00:02:56,010 interactive learning experience, let's put it that way. It's not important for you to know or be able to predict what the highest, I have things that help you
14 00:02:56,010 --> 00:03:04,980 do that. But for this exercise in this lesson, try not to worry about that.  Okay, we're only really trying to worry about finding something in the middle.
15 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:16,230 Okay. And the low obviously, when we're bullish, we're looking for the low to form right after the open. And then finally, the close, you're not trying to
16 00:03:16,230 --> 00:03:26,760 predict that either. So basically, what we're trying to get at is you want to try to focus on a day when it's more likely to expand on the upside than that of
17 00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:37,200 going lower. How do you know that? How do you know which direction it's going to go. I'm going to give you an example tonight. And I want to give you a very
18 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:47,580 small sample set of data to go back in and back test. So I'm going to give you a very specific parameter and time, a very specific pair. So that way, you're not
19 00:03:47,580 --> 00:03:56,100 looking for all different things. We're all going to be looking at the same thing. And hopefully, you'll get very close to what I'm going to outline for you
20 00:03:56,130 --> 00:04:04,890 next Friday. So yes, for some of you hardline cynics out there, this is a hindsight teaching exercise. But by learning these things, you'll be able to do
21 00:04:04,890 --> 00:04:18,180 what everyone in my telegram channels and watching me do daily with real executions. So the next thing in this is institutional order flow. And I'll
22 00:04:18,180 --> 00:04:28,200 cover a little bit about that tonight so that we helps you along. And everything is obviously reversed. If you're looking for a market that's bearish, which is
23 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:40,470 predominantly what we're gonna be following. In this exercise. Everything is more or less focused on this daily range profile. It won't exactly look like
24 00:04:40,470 --> 00:04:51,570 this, but we're focusing primarily on the moves that are expanding lower inside of a daily range. So imagine this is a candlestick on one particular day, and
25 00:04:51,570 --> 00:05:04,830 it's a bearish day. So we're focusing on days that's going to deliver price with an expansion lower and short selling only. And I'll build on that idea as we go
26 00:05:04,830 --> 00:05:21,030 through. Alright, for this exercise, we're gonna be looking at the euro dollar.  And when I first flesh out the whole parameters with your daily chart, Alright,
27 00:05:21,030 --> 00:05:29,670 here's the euro dollar daily chart. Some of you have already been through my content, you're very familiar with the optimal trade entry, but I'm going to
28 00:05:29,670 --> 00:05:41,370 just give you all of the framework first. And then define the actual range, which you're going to go in study. This is your dealing range, you have your
29 00:05:41,370 --> 00:05:44,640 high up here, your low down here.
30 00:05:44,820 --> 00:05:54,120 Now I know some of you already are freaking out. Why is that a dealing range?  Why is it not this high? And why is it not this high? You know what I mean, I
31 00:05:54,120 --> 00:06:04,500 already know what you're thinking, try to push all those questions aside and just focus on the things I'm laying in front of you. Okay, I'm doing all the
32 00:06:04,500 --> 00:06:16,620 work for you. So that way, your focus is in a very specific period in time. And that way, you can only study in this area, and then looking for the things that
33 00:06:16,710 --> 00:06:27,690 I'm going to outline. But the high here to that low that you're dealing range.  Inside that dealing range. If you run a fib across that you get up into a
34 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:47,100 premium market up in here. Which brings us to the optimal trade entry levels.  77.5 62% retracement, this is my classic optimal trade entry. Now, when price
35 00:06:47,100 --> 00:06:58,290 gets here and starts to move away, that is going to be the origin of the swing.  What are we looking for? I want you to think about if you were a smart money
36 00:06:58,290 --> 00:07:06,150 trader, okay. If you were one of the big shots that knew what you were doing, and you had lots of money behind your trades, and you were trying to get short
37 00:07:06,150 --> 00:07:15,120 up here, obviously, with the benefit hindsight, where would you first aim? All you could look to go to that low here, there's nothing inherently wrong about
38 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:23,160 that. But what about this low right here, that's our dealing range low. So we want to try to see if we can get to that low and maybe get a little bit below.
39 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:32,430 I'm not trying to entice you to predict this low. My students know how to do that. But you only need to worry about getting to this low and just below it.
40 00:07:33,090 --> 00:07:46,710 Okay, so we're framing out this high to this low, that's our framework for the trade. But we look for this day, to signify that, in fact, is likely to go
41 00:07:46,710 --> 00:07:56,580 lower. So at the close of this candle, we're assuming, and this is hypothetical, so that we we all understand one another. But the principles in this and how you
42 00:07:56,580 --> 00:08:08,700 go back and back test is how you learn. Every person that's ever learned how to trade profitably with real money has always done this, or a very similar process
43 00:08:08,700 --> 00:08:19,020 to this, it's back testing. If you're against the idea of learning like this, this turn the video off, don't waste your time. Okay. But if you want to learn,
44 00:08:19,110 --> 00:08:29,430 this is how you do it. We're going to assume the very next day here is our beginning study. And we'll use this right here because the first candidate
45 00:08:29,430 --> 00:08:39,990 traits to and through that old well, that we're targeting the cell stops here.  So in essence, what we're doing is we're looking at the market, right trades
46 00:08:39,990 --> 00:08:49,860 above an old high here, and it goes up into optimal trade entry relative to this high to that low. And we're looking for a swing, that's going to trade down to
47 00:08:49,860 --> 00:09:04,080 that low and below it. So we're going to frame out that low to that high. And that looks like this. Okay, so this is your frame of study. We're not looking at
48 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:16,110 over here, we're not looking over here only inside this blue shaded area. So if we break this down into an hourly chart, and this is the origin of the price
49 00:09:16,110 --> 00:09:27,960 swing up here is that Fibonacci on a daily chart. And the very next day is here, and we're seeing how the market trades lower every single price. So in here, I
50 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:39,090 want you to study this very carefully until we get down to this low over here.  This is that old low on the daily chart. That said we would aim for the cell
51 00:09:39,090 --> 00:09:50,820 stops. This is where the move starts. This is what we were aiming for down here.  So all of this price action. I want you to study this one a 15 minute timeframe,
52 00:09:51,300 --> 00:10:02,550 and a five minute timeframe. And what you're looking for is every potential optimal trade entry every single one of them But we're focusing primarily only
53 00:10:02,550 --> 00:10:13,500 on the London session and the New York session. So what time is that? Well, you have to look at things in terms of New York time, New York local time. Now, this
54 00:10:13,890 --> 00:10:18,270 time of the month in March, we were not in daylight savings time, so you will have to look at
55 00:10:19,980 --> 00:10:31,020 right now, if you set trading view to New York time, and today's date being March 19 2021. If you pull up trading view and select New York as your trading
56 00:10:31,020 --> 00:10:46,380 view timeframe, or you timezone it's going to be UTC negative four, if you set your time to Chicago, it'll put you at pre daylight savings time. And everything
57 00:10:46,410 --> 00:10:55,680 in these lower timeframes will line up with the New York local time, before daylight savings time started. Now, it's probably confused A lot of you just go
58 00:10:55,680 --> 00:11:05,280 back and listen to what I said, it's very clear. But you're gonna go through a 15 and or five minute timeframe, and I'll do this with you next Friday, I'll
59 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:14,940 have examples of what it is. But I want you to look for every potential optimal trade entry in those respective time zones or kill zones as icon, London open
60 00:11:14,940 --> 00:11:24,000 kill zone, New York open kill zone, what frames that? Well, for your learning, we're just going to say, two o'clock in the morning to five o'clock in the
61 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:39,810 morning, London. And New York is 830 in the morning, to 11 o'clock in the morning, New York Times both in New York time, okay. If you do that, and you go
62 00:11:39,810 --> 00:11:50,280 through each one of these price swings, zooming in a little bit here, on a 15 minute timeframe, you're gonna be analyzing and looking for every pullback, to
63 00:11:50,310 --> 00:12:03,480 offered the setup with an optimal trade entry. And you're gonna look at how much time it took for the trade to unfold, and how much drawdown each one offered
64 00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:13,620 you. Don't be afraid to see if you would have looked at an optimal trade entry.  And where it would have failed include that that's actually a benefit to doing
65 00:12:13,650 --> 00:12:19,740 back testing, because you can see where you have to be honest here, because sometimes everyone likes to look at the chart and say, Well, I'm just gonna look
66 00:12:19,740 --> 00:12:28,140 at what works out. You look at the times where it would have probably hurt you.  And your subconscious says, Don't pay attention to that, no, pay attention to
67 00:12:28,140 --> 00:12:37,590 it. You're using the benefit of hindsight. So that way, you're not hurting yourself, it's very important that you balance that. Because you can sweet talk
68 00:12:37,590 --> 00:12:46,710 yourself into thinking you see something that's going to be flawless, because you had the benefit of hindsight, but don't negate the opportunity for you to
69 00:12:46,710 --> 00:12:56,070 see where you would have failed looking for that type of setup, you're going to see that they don't fail that many times versus when they do work. Because
70 00:12:56,070 --> 00:13:05,070 you're trading institutional order flow that's bearish here. And again, with the benefit of hindsight, I know some of you outside my fold, think this is
71 00:13:05,070 --> 00:13:15,150 ridiculous. But we talked about this in our own group. So it is what it is. But the point is this. The first steps in learning is going back and looking at old
72 00:13:15,150 --> 00:13:26,100 data and familiarizing yourself with the pattern and seeing how it forms, how often it forms and how often it fails. And having the data behind it. How many
73 00:13:26,100 --> 00:13:35,250 pips does that offer in profit? How much drawdown does it take for where you would get in and we're going to use 62% retracement, that's going to be your
74 00:13:35,250 --> 00:13:49,890 entry. Okay? Don't try to do the 70.5 don't look for the 79% use 62%. Okay, and frame it with the high like I'll give you one of them just for the sake of
75 00:13:50,790 --> 00:14:01,260 suggesting how you should do it from this high to that low. Okay, it's not in the kill zone time. That's why I'm picking this one. So it's not taking anything
76 00:14:01,260 --> 00:14:13,740 away from you. This high to that low 62 whatever that price is, that would be your hypothetical entry point. Your stop has to be five pips above the old high
77 00:14:13,770 --> 00:14:27,390 that you pull your fib from. So no words. dragging your fib from here to here.  Wherever 62% retracement level is that's your entry price. That's your old high
78 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:35,760 and you add five pips to that we're only selling short so we're looking for bearish optimal trade entries. So five pips above the old high, that's your stop
79 00:14:36,540 --> 00:14:44,460 62% retracement level whatever that price level is that's your entry. And then you see what candle hits that and how much it goes above it.
80 00:14:45,779 --> 00:14:55,349 From your entry point hypothetically at 62% retracement level to the highest high before it starts to drop in your favor. That's how much drawdown you record
81 00:14:55,349 --> 00:15:06,539 how many pips that is. And then how much pips it offers for profit potential, but you have to take the profit before the session ends. similar words if you're
82 00:15:06,539 --> 00:15:17,519 trading London, you have to close it or hypothetically close it before 5am New York time and in the New York session, you have to close the trade by 11am.
83 00:15:18,569 --> 00:15:28,679 Okay, and obviously going forward. You can see after we had a small little retracement in here, market creates new price swings and finally ultimately
84 00:15:28,679 --> 00:15:42,329 trades below attacking the sell stops in here. Okay, so that's going to be your homework. And again, just as a review the exercise is interactive learning for
85 00:15:42,329 --> 00:15:56,189 backtesting intraday scalping, in the Forex market. We're using the 15 and or five minute charts on forex. We're gonna be finding all the optimal trade entry
86 00:15:56,189 --> 00:16:07,139 setups in euro dollar. You're not trying to do this with other payers. If you trade like pound yen or euro yen or something other than euro dollar. Don't do
87 00:16:07,139 --> 00:16:16,799 it in that one because I'm not gonna be showing you examples. With that pair.  I'm only showing you examples next Friday with euro dollar. You're only focusing
88 00:16:16,799 --> 00:16:31,049 in on the blue shaded area that I showed you in this presentation. Try to focus only London in New York setups. No agent sessions, no between the kill zones,
89 00:16:31,079 --> 00:16:44,039 just the time windows I gave you earlier in the video. Total number of pips each yielded and the total number of pips in drawdown. And obviously, like I said,
90 00:16:44,189 --> 00:16:52,619 we'll review it next Friday night, probably around 10 o'clock next Friday, my local time. And until then, I wish you good luck and good trading.