ICT YT - 2021-03-07 - Why ICT Doesnt Trade NonFarm Payroll.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-07 05:14
1 00:00:30,660 --> 00:00:40,530 ICT: Okay, folks, welcome back. I know, it's been a couple weeks since we last spoke. And I appreciate your patience and your continued interest. I want to
2 00:00:40,530 --> 00:00:51,420 talk a little bit about non farm payroll Fridays, and that is an event that occurs every month in the marketplace. And the things I'm referring to here are
3 00:00:51,420 --> 00:01:04,260 specific to currencies. Okay, so like index trading, that's completely set apart from the rules I'm giving you here. These are my rules, okay, they're not, you
4 00:01:04,260 --> 00:01:15,600 know, etched in stone somewhere, it's, they're basically what I have come to live by over almost three decades of market activity. So if you look at the
5 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:28,290 dollar CAD, okay, that's a daily chart. I'll try to get right into it and spare you all of the other lectures that would be associated with this. But I want you
6 00:01:28,290 --> 00:01:41,220 to take a look at this high here, this low and how much energy it's spent running from this low to here. Also, I want you to notice that this high,
7 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:57,180 pierced this high. Now, by itself, that is enough for me to be interested in a retracement back down into this candle right here. This down close candle is my
8 00:01:57,180 --> 00:02:05,250 ICT order block. Now it's not a supply and demand zone. We're not looking at an area in here and trying to figure out what we're trying to trade, we're looking
9 00:02:05,250 --> 00:02:16,650 at a very specific price level is going to be the opening price. Now if you were to consider the top of that little wick there. There's nothing inherently wrong
10 00:02:16,650 --> 00:02:25,560 with that. But if it has a little stubby little wick like that, I'm going to elect to use the opening price. Okay. If we add the annotations here, and
11 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:38,280 there's not a lot of them, I want you to take note that this swing high is pierced with this run here. So look at this price level right there. 127 48,
12 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:48,780 nine pipettes, okay, it's a 48. And nine, just think of that 48, nine, this high, comes in at 46, and five, so this one goes higher, it doesn't need to go
13 00:02:48,780 --> 00:03:05,520 very much above an old high for me to view it as a shift of market structure. So my eye goes to this order block. In this Hi, this is now my dealing range. Okay,
14 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:17,070 I'm looking for that. So right away, I've already shown you very quickly how to find actionable dealing ranges. Anytime any time frame, you see a shift in
15 00:03:17,070 --> 00:03:29,250 market structure like this. If there's an order block, go back to that. And then this level and this level are now my dealing range. This is where I think it's
16 00:03:29,250 --> 00:03:37,710 going to go. And I believe that the origination of any move to this level is going to start down here. If you're a student of this channel, the flagship
17 00:03:37,710 --> 00:03:49,110 pattern that I teach here is the optimal trade entry, which is basically the 62% retracement level of a underlying Lee, bullish or bearish market move. What I'm
18 00:03:49,110 --> 00:03:58,740 showing you here is that 62% retracement level relative to this candles opening and this candles high because that is the range. I'm not concerned about this
19 00:03:58,740 --> 00:04:07,560 move here because it's already done. It's worked by running down and tapping into liquidity. So my framework goes right to that. So this is your dealing
20 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:19,650 range. Now I'm going to add a fib just to illustrate what this level is that way you're comforted by that. Okay, here's the 62% retracement level 126 48 and six
21 00:04:19,710 --> 00:04:28,890 pit that's okay. That's what's being shown here. Now, if you notice what has happened here on Thursday, the market trades down into that order block. Now I
22 00:04:28,890 --> 00:04:40,440 had a note here as I was doing a teaching, and I was doing it via my telegram channel. And the telegram channel. I'll put that in here. You can put this in
23 00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:53,610 your browser and click enter. It'll take you to my telegram. Now, you might be asking why does ICT have a telegram channel now? Well, it's because I don't want
24 00:04:53,610 --> 00:05:05,040 to have my comment section open on my YouTube because there's a lot of videos and it takes a lot of time. to babysit, trolls and such in telegram, if someone
25 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:13,440 comes into the room and they want to be disruptive or whatever, it's a very easy fix, I click a button and they're going, every post is going. So you're all
26 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:22,320 welcome to come there and ask what you would normally ask underneath a particular video on my YouTube channel, you have something you want to ask me if
27 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:25,650 you just want to share some appreciation. That's you're certainly welcome to do that. But
28 00:05:26,550 --> 00:05:36,210 there is a discussion group that is a little rowdy. And it's hard to follow.  Because there's a lot of people in there basically sharing their appreciation
29 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:44,910 more than anything else. I go into that area periodically. And I'll answer questions that are thrown at me some questions I won't answer just so you know,
30 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:55,980 but it's there for you for free. And there's no hook or any kind of strings attached to it, I only offer it as a alternative to opening up the video
31 00:05:56,370 --> 00:06:06,720 comments, because I'm one of the managing comment sections on hundreds of videos. It's just too much. So anyway, back to the discussion. This low here
32 00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:16,320 forms on an event on economic calendar, and I prompt you here to look at that economic count. And you can find it at forex, factory calm forex factories,
33 00:06:17,070 --> 00:06:28,080 calendar is the one I actually use in all my teachings, I refer my students to that calendar, I think it's an easy read, it's well organized. And it's the very
34 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:39,750 resource that I use when I teach. But it creates the low in the order block at a very specific time and event on economic calendar. This price run up in here
35 00:06:40,770 --> 00:06:52,890 sets the stage for a run into this high. Which brings us to non farm payroll Friday, which is this candle right there. Okay. Now with all of this lipstick,
36 00:06:53,670 --> 00:07:05,460 and annotations added to the daily, I'm going to drop down into a hourly chart with all of this in mind. Alright, so here's the dollar CAD, one hour chart. So
37 00:07:05,460 --> 00:07:15,540 everything is the same. All the levels I drew your attention to on a daily chart are now just simply transpose to this timeframe. Nothing has been changed,
38 00:07:15,570 --> 00:07:26,970 nothing's been edited. It's exactly as it was, when that daily chart. The high, I'm thinking it's going to reach up into the low of the order block, opening
39 00:07:26,970 --> 00:07:36,090 price. And it drives down into that event on Thursday. And I'll just tell you what it is. So you can find on the calendar. It's the Fed Chairman Powell
40 00:07:36,090 --> 00:07:51,870 speaking, around noon, it's 1205. On Thursday, the market drives into that order block and then repels all of this here. You all are familiar with that, because
41 00:07:51,900 --> 00:08:04,620 of the teachings I put on my YouTube channel, which is the ICT breaker. It's this candle right here. I want you to think about how price trades very close to
42 00:08:04,620 --> 00:08:18,960 that 62% retracement level right here. But does it get to it? No. What does it trade to? Once it's trade up above this high? What is it really consolidating in
43 00:08:21,510 --> 00:08:31,080 this last close candle. So that's your breaker. So extend that out in time cut through candles because we're not supplying to me. And this level here is where
44 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:41,340 you would expect to see accumulation. It does not need to trade back down to this level because I'm not a Fibonacci trader. Fibonacci is just a way for me to
45 00:08:41,340 --> 00:08:51,960 communicate and illustrate a overbought or oversold condition without the utilization of a indicator like stochastic or RSI or CCI something that effect.
46 00:08:52,590 --> 00:09:05,100 So I don't need this to trade back down to that 62% retracement level. I do pay attention to the structure with this candle right there. And what's actually
47 00:09:05,100 --> 00:09:16,920 happening is this low gets violated there in the action that it's seen on this blue line, which is the daily bullish Orbach. And coupled with an economic
48 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:26,040 calendar event, we have this displacement. So I'm going to look at this candle here. And trust. Okay, I get a lot of questions all the time. How do you know if
49 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:34,980 it's going to do this? And how do you know it's going to do that? I don't know, with 100% assurity that anything that I'm trading is going to pan out. Because
50 00:09:34,980 --> 00:09:44,040 if that was the case, I wouldn't use a stop loss. But because there's always some measure of human error on my part and yours. You have to consider the
51 00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:51,720 likelihood that you're going to be wrong and accept the fact that you're gonna be wrong once in a while. It's okay in the beginning hear me wrong a lot. But I
52 00:09:51,720 --> 00:10:05,430 trust these principles. Like the breaker that even though it has a very small deviation outside of that candle Low. It for the most part, we'll, if it's true,
53 00:10:05,460 --> 00:10:16,500 it's gonna go higher, we'll hold this as a support structure. And if anything, the next expansion in price should be the upside not down. Because we've already
54 00:10:16,500 --> 00:10:20,040 done the work of running stops over here. Now,
55 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:28,560 if you've been a student of mine in my YouTube channel, there's a lot of lessons where I'll refer to finding areas where there has been a strong run away from
56 00:10:28,560 --> 00:10:39,120 stuff. Okay, what does that mean? Anytime you see a market low violated and runs away quickly, then you know, that's not likely to go back down there, again,
57 00:10:39,270 --> 00:10:49,620 because it's already done the work. This is very useful information, because it helps us frame out short term market strategies, it gives us a bias, it doesn't
58 00:10:49,620 --> 00:11:01,260 mean the bias lasts for six months, it doesn't matter that it's a short term bias, that's all you need, you need that small little balance of bias being one
59 00:11:01,260 --> 00:11:12,600 sided over another. In this case, it's more likely to go higher, because of this stock run down here. And this being untapped, and leverage this high hasn't been
60 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:20,820 traded about yet. So with that in mind, I want to take your attention down into this area right here on a 15 minute time frame now, right, so now we have a 15
61 00:11:20,820 --> 00:11:31,020 minute time frame. And now we have more details and a lower timeframe market structure. Right in here, we're inside that breaker, but I want you to take a
62 00:11:31,020 --> 00:11:43,770 look at what else is existing here. Do you see that low? How about this high right here? You see that? If you take your Fibonacci and you anchor it on that
63 00:11:43,770 --> 00:11:53,100 low Now, why this low? And you're asking, probably, why are you picking this low? Why don't you use this low? And why didn't you use this low or this low?
64 00:11:53,580 --> 00:12:06,900 Well, let me take it off real quick. This low is outside of this blue shaded area, which is that one hour breaker. Okay, so that one hour candle, I extended
65 00:12:06,900 --> 00:12:18,570 that out in time, my belief is that the market is going to mostly stay inside of this box, if you will. So inside of this candles range, which is the hourly
66 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:30,270 breaker, the underlying narrative I'm holding fast to is that if it goes down to the low end of this, then it should send price above. Now these relatively equal
67 00:12:30,270 --> 00:12:42,210 highs and ultimately, up to this level here, which is that old daily high. This is that daily order block. This is that old, daily high, they had the little
68 00:12:42,210 --> 00:12:58,890 eyeball next to it. Okay. So back to this low. Since this is outside of this range, we have a new dealing range here to here. So now you add that feedback.
69 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:14,130 Here's your seventh tracing level right here. It's lining up just above the bottom end of that rectangle. Okay, so I have a lot of things here confirming
70 00:13:14,850 --> 00:13:24,780 that this is likely to be another optimal trade entry. And if that's the case, then I could look for eventually a run above these relatively equal highs, then
71 00:13:24,780 --> 00:13:35,940 we have a target right here at 127 20. And nine puppets, if you extend that out in time it hits it perfectly and then retraces. But before it goes a little bit
72 00:13:35,940 --> 00:13:42,930 higher. And you're probably looking at this little box that if you didn't see what I was doing in the telegram channel, I had this area here, marked out right
73 00:13:42,930 --> 00:13:54,960 here. So when the chart was like this, I was building this idea of it trading up into non farm payroll at that time of day. That's what I was indicating. And I
74 00:13:54,960 --> 00:14:04,500 said it was a liquidity study. And this is how I practice on non farm payrolls.  I don't trade non farm payroll Fridays. But I do practice not all the time. But
75 00:14:04,500 --> 00:14:12,330 when it's made available to me in time, and I can put my attention on it. I like to practice where I think that they're going to draw the market to for liquidity
76 00:14:12,330 --> 00:14:26,040 purposes. And the fact that it does not trade here, because this is the non farm payroll release. This is when the data is released to 8:30am. Eastern time in
77 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:36,450 New York, the market does rally up in here and I have a recording so you can see all this okay, but I entered long down in here as the market drops down into
78 00:14:36,450 --> 00:14:50,490 optimal trade entry. What I'm trying to do is buy the deepest discount inside of this range low in this range high. And I'm using this blue shaded area to frame
79 00:14:50,820 --> 00:14:59,520 the underlying narrative that it should not go lower than that. Now for someone that's new to this channel, you probably look at this and say this is a lot of
80 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:10,170 hindsight. stuff. But I'm going to show you the natural execution where I entered right in here and managed it woke up Friday morning, right here too
81 00:15:10,170 --> 00:15:16,350 late. And I would have rather had an opportunity to exit up here somewhere. And I would have done that. And you've seen many examples of that.
82 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:24,120 But I hope you'll grant me a little bit of liberty here and talking because you're gonna see me actually managing this trade idea. So I think the bulk of
83 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:35,250 the position off here, because we're above these highs, and the characteristic of non farm payroll Fridays are that I am generally not likely to be as precise
84 00:15:35,310 --> 00:15:43,500 as I am on any other day of the week, or month. There's a lot of manipulation in this day. And you can see it's really not that good of a trading days, it's
85 00:15:43,530 --> 00:15:55,290 really sloppy, it does have a run up. And this time window is exactly where I was aiming for. And the price level was that old high. So what I was trying to
86 00:15:55,290 --> 00:16:03,000 do was show that in any other day, I could do things like this, and it would rain right up in there. I've done many examples of that. I did it when I was on
87 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:11,580 baby pips, I did it on Twitter, when I had a Twitter account, I don't have Twitter anymore. This is just an illustration of me knowing that price will be
88 00:16:11,580 --> 00:16:22,980 drawn here during that specific time of day. But I did that and framed it back here. So the question is going to be is how and why did I know that this was
89 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:31,380 likely to occur. And if it would have been any other day, but non farm payroll, this would have reached up right into that and then sold off like you saw here.
90 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:40,950 But because non farm payroll being what it is, it's highly manipulated. And the liquidity about here simply just wasn't tapped on non farm payroll Friday
91 00:16:40,950 --> 00:16:50,070 release. That's the reason why I don't trade this day because it doesn't fit the algorithmic theories and principles that I follow. And because of that, it's low
92 00:16:50,070 --> 00:16:56,430 probability for me. Now some of you are going to watch what I'm going to show you and say, well, that's good enough for me, and I'm okay, that's fine. But
93 00:16:56,430 --> 00:17:04,170 it's still not an invitation for you to go in and start trading non farm payroll, okay. Just pay attention to the fact that while I was looking for this,
94 00:17:04,470 --> 00:17:13,470 to be traded to, with the expectation is likely to fail, which is why I took the majority of the trade off here. And then we traded up above this high here, I
95 00:17:13,470 --> 00:17:25,980 was taking more off. So I took two more partials here, and I finally get stopped out. Now while I'm in this chart, I'm going to simply show you the execute
96 00:17:25,980 --> 00:17:39,540 executions. So that way, you know, there really was a button being pushed here.  Okay, so that's where I'm entering. This was the bulk of the position exit above
97 00:17:39,540 --> 00:17:51,300 this high, then I took a partial off here, and I took a partial off here, and it gives you the very specific price levels. This is just an exaggeration. It's not
98 00:17:51,360 --> 00:18:05,880 there's no trading up here, just showing you in that candle. This is where my exits were, and I'm showing you again, the prices there. There in there. And
99 00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:15,810 then finally, a very, very small portion being stopped out there. Okay, and then ultimately trades down below where I entered, the question you're going to have
100 00:18:15,810 --> 00:18:25,710 is, with this idea here, are you going to be lulled into thinking that you should trade non farm payrolls? I hope you don't. That's not what I'm trying to
101 00:18:25,710 --> 00:18:35,010 do here. I'm not trying to convince you that you should do it. I'm just showing you and this is the takeaway with this, okay, pay attention. Even with me being
102 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:46,020 author of these concepts, and having as many years experience using them. Even if I use what I teach on this particular day of the month, I'm likely to fail.
103 00:18:46,830 --> 00:19:00,120 So my question to you is, if you know that, and I'll use the old analogy that I learned from Larry Williams, back in 95 1995. The, the adage was this, if you
104 00:19:00,120 --> 00:19:09,570 walk down a particular road, up to a white picket fence with a blue house in it, and you get too close to the fence, and his dog bites you in the arm, and then
105 00:19:09,690 --> 00:19:15,360 you go home, you nurse that moment, and you come back out the next day, take the same Walk, walk in front of that same white picket fence in front, that same
106 00:19:15,360 --> 00:19:22,380 blue house, and your arm gets too close to the fence and that same dog comes over and bite you again on the arm. Are you going to do that 30 more times
107 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:31,680 before you realize that that's probably going to have a bad outcome if you do that same thing over again. But traders when they first start in his industry,
108 00:19:31,740 --> 00:19:32,820 they don't know
109 00:19:32,910 --> 00:19:41,670 what they should be doing. And more importantly, what they should not be doing and when not to be doing something. And I have learned many of my strongest
110 00:19:41,670 --> 00:19:51,780 filters are simply not trading particular conditions in the marketplace. And they're static. Like I do not trade non farm payroll Fridays, because this is
111 00:19:51,780 --> 00:20:05,370 the result of it. Now I can see that it's likely to go up to this level in time.  Back here But the price doesn't get offered to me. So I have the time aspect,
112 00:20:05,370 --> 00:20:15,360 right, which is the first facet of algorithmic theory. Everything is wanting time basis. So I have the time aspect correct. But the price level isn't always
113 00:20:15,360 --> 00:20:23,250 going to be offered to me because of the manipulation. Okay, that's what I'm getting at. So long story short, I don't trade non farm payroll For this reason,
114 00:20:23,250 --> 00:20:32,850 not because I'm a failed trader, not because I have failed targets because I'm still banking, pips in this move, and still not getting my target. That's what I
115 00:20:32,850 --> 00:20:40,860 teach in this YouTube channel. And that's how I teach my students in my mentorship group, you pay yourself so that way, it removes the necessity about
116 00:20:40,860 --> 00:20:47,670 being right, where all of you when he first start, you want to be right about all your trades, you don't ever want to be stopped out. You don't want to be
117 00:20:47,670 --> 00:20:55,590 incorrect about anything because it cuts too deep and it hurts. You don't need to do those types of things. If you're bullish, just take something off above an
118 00:20:55,590 --> 00:21:04,290 old high. As soon as you get there, take something I don't care what it is, and then put your position in a state where you're not likely to see a loss. If you
119 00:21:04,290 --> 00:21:15,390 do that. It's much easier to hold the balance the position. And anytime you do this, you record it in the log it in your study journal. If you do that, you're
120 00:21:15,390 --> 00:21:23,010 going to have a plethora of examples to lean on when you have drawdown, because it's going to come you're going to have a series of losing trades. And it's
121 00:21:23,010 --> 00:21:29,940 going to feel like your model your trading plan or your approach is failing. And it's probably not that at all. It's just you're trying to probably do more
122 00:21:29,940 --> 00:21:34,380 things and you're supposed to during times when you shouldn't be doing it like non farm payroll.