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ICT YT - 2021-01-13 - ICT Price Action Lesson - Major Moves With Seasonal Tendencies.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-07 05:14
1 00:00:28,740 --> 00:00:38,310 ICT: Alright, folks, welcome back. This is a new year and some new discussions, we're going to talk about major moves with seasonal tendencies. Now I'm going to
2 00:00:38,310 --> 00:00:50,730 talk about specifically, commodities in this lecture. Now, it's important to know that if some of you are hardline crypto traders, or Forex traders, there
3 00:00:50,730 --> 00:01:03,330 are seasonal tendencies. In forex, there are seasonal tendencies in the dollar index their seasonal tendencies in stocks. So try not to read so much into this
4 00:01:03,330 --> 00:01:15,810 lesson. And think of it as only applying to the markets I'm going to refer to in its delivery. Okay, so understanding understand a seasonal tendency is a
5 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:30,600 roadmap, it's a generalization of what has happened in the past. And if there is some measure of repeating phenomenon, okay, in other words, if we think that the
6 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:39,480 market is going to go up at a particular time of the year, to a specific time of the year, and we measure it over the last five years, over the last 10 years,
7 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:50,490 the last 15 years, the last 20 and 25 years, there are services out there. And I'll turn you on to one in this teaching, that I have a lot of faith in myself
8 00:01:50,490 --> 00:02:03,030 personally. But it's important to note that I'm not saying this is going to be the case, every single time you look at the marketplace, there are some certain
9 00:02:03,030 --> 00:02:10,590 caveats that have to be considered. And I'll briefly discuss those as we go along. But I'm going to try to keep this video short. Because I know some of you
10 00:02:10,590 --> 00:02:19,740 have very short attention spans when it comes to my lectures, because if I'm talking too much, I'm just trying to give you an extra value and insights that
11 00:02:19,740 --> 00:02:32,400 you would otherwise have to pay for elsewhere. So let's take a look at $1 index chart to begin with. Alright, so we're looking at the Dollar Index, and I'm
12 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:41,640 using tradingview.com. Right, so you can find this information yourself, you can go pull up your own version of this chart and take a look at the things I'm
13 00:02:41,640 --> 00:02:51,570 referring to hear. And it should be on par with what I'm showing in my charts.  Now I'm going to refrain from showing any kind of real annotations until we get
14 00:02:51,570 --> 00:03:04,650 to the very specific market, I want to talk about, but I'm going to talk about a few of them, and review some of the potential opportunities that make themselves
15 00:03:04,650 --> 00:03:17,370 available each year in these markets. So I've always begin my analysis with the dollar index. Okay. And the reason why I do that is because I want to know, if
16 00:03:17,370 --> 00:03:28,710 we are on a risk on or risk off environment now risk on would be where the market has the dollar index going lower, as we see here around July of 2020. To
17 00:03:28,710 --> 00:03:42,810 present and that would allow or permit the likelihood of markets to rally or go higher, and that being like foreign currency against the dollar, and also
18 00:03:43,050 --> 00:03:52,950 commodities. Because if the dollar is going lower, that is more or less inflationary for commodity prices, so they're going to see a an appreciation in
19 00:03:53,340 --> 00:04:06,600 the cost of producing and or purchasing commodities. So if we can just simply understand that going forward, everything in this teaching will be very easy to
20 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:15,510 follow along. If you're someone that's new to my channel or new to commodities or trading in general, you're probably going to want to watch other video series
21 00:04:15,540 --> 00:04:27,180 on this YouTube channel. It'll help fill in some of the gaps I'm certain that you have watching this. If the dollar index is going higher, that's going to be
22 00:04:27,180 --> 00:04:38,370 deflationary for commodity prices and also for foreign currencies. They're going to go lower in relationship to the higher prices in dollar. Now, if we have that
23 00:04:38,370 --> 00:04:53,370 risk on risk off scenario in mind, when dollars going lower, that's risk on when dollars going higher. That's risk off. If we have this period of time when the
24 00:04:53,370 --> 00:05:06,780 market is clearly indicating that the dollar wants to go lower, that means we are on the watch For big moves on the upside, okay, really big moves. One such
25 00:05:06,780 --> 00:05:19,350 big move this year was the soybean market. And I've been very vocal about that my students know about that. And I've also tipped the community off in my
26 00:05:19,350 --> 00:05:26,010 YouTube channel. And if you look at that, over here, I have a bunch of things that I've shared publicly here. Now, when I look at this,
27 00:05:27,660 --> 00:05:35,610 I can see that it doesn't really give me a specific date. And I'm actually learning something as I do this video with you right now. I'm going to include
28 00:05:35,670 --> 00:05:49,290 the actual date that I post it, okay, so I wish it would have given me a specific date. But nonetheless, it is what it is the the thumbs up that's
29 00:05:49,290 --> 00:05:58,380 highlighted here, just so you guys know, I like to post the comment, and then I wait for the first thumbs up. And I'm usually the second thumbs up, because it's
30 00:05:58,380 --> 00:06:08,040 my way of checking to make sure that it's viewable on your end, because I've had members in the past, say I can't see my posts or the posts I make to the
31 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:15,270 community tab. They don't they they're saying they didn't see or they did say they couldn't see it. So I usually wait for someone to do a thumbs up. That
32 00:06:15,270 --> 00:06:24,000 means it's visible when you're in as the audience and then I'm typically the second thumbs up. So it's not me being conceited or loving myself, it's just a
33 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:34,230 way for me to know that. Okay, that post has been seen, it's public now. And I can leave YouTube and go about my business somewhere else. But if you look at
34 00:06:34,290 --> 00:06:44,250 about a month ago, I mentioned that if you take a look at the grain reports, soybeans, as I stated, since June of 2020, was poised to continue to rally in
35 00:06:44,250 --> 00:06:54,150 the 2021. And I stayed here. Corn will be next. Now notice there's no edit here, like you see here to edit. It means that when I change a typo or something like
36 00:06:54,150 --> 00:07:05,430 that, here, I'm telling you, specifically a month ago that corn is going to be the next big rally. Okay, it's going to go up. Why? Well, if you look at here,
37 00:07:05,550 --> 00:07:15,300 I'm telling you that China's buying everything again. And I gave you the reasons I'm not going to read it, you can see it here. But I also talked about Bitcoin,
38 00:07:15,810 --> 00:07:28,230 and I called 20,000, before Christmas. And when I was on Twitter, which I'm not now I also posted in July of 2020, I stated that I felt that we would see
39 00:07:28,740 --> 00:07:42,900 Bitcoin 30,000 by the end of the year going into 2021 I was off by one day. So sorry. The next level I called for Bitcoin and I'll let you scroll through, you
40 00:07:42,900 --> 00:07:55,710 can find this on your own. I called 40,000 and went to like 42,000 something, and then it has recently had some difficulties. So I'm making calls here
41 00:07:55,920 --> 00:08:04,110 publicly because I've had people in the past, make some derogatory comments about how I don't really put my neck out on the line say, this is what I think
42 00:08:04,110 --> 00:08:12,600 is going to happen. And I used to do that a lot on Twitter, but I don't have Twitter anymore. So this has replaced my Twitter. And you can follow along and
43 00:08:12,630 --> 00:08:22,170 see what I'm suggesting in my expectation now don't do everything. But I toss out once in a while something for you guys to study. And we're gonna take a look
44 00:08:22,170 --> 00:08:36,510 at the corn market here in relationship to the soybean market. And we're going to use that dollar bearishness from July as a context to anticipating higher
45 00:08:36,510 --> 00:08:46,530 prices on every market I'm going to cover in this teaching. So let's move on over to soybeans first. Alright, so here's the soybean market. And in June of
46 00:08:46,530 --> 00:08:55,860 this past year, I was warming all my students up to the idea that we were going to eventually make a run above these highs here. And that we will have a pretty
47 00:08:55,860 --> 00:09:04,350 big bull market going into the commodity market because of the dollar index being bearish. Now, some of you that are in my mentorship are getting really
48 00:09:04,350 --> 00:09:12,780 nervous right now because you're thinking I'm teaching mentorship, when all I'm dealing is talking about what you've experienced before it happened. So please
49 00:09:12,780 --> 00:09:21,330 don't send me emails, okay. And they some of you are highly protected, and I love you all for that. But I want to kind of teach something broad brush, and
50 00:09:21,330 --> 00:09:33,870 I'm really not doing harm to what you are participating in. So just give me the Liberty here to be able to be a teacher outside of mentorship to because it's
51 00:09:34,740 --> 00:09:45,750 why this channel exists. The there is no mentorship joining now, by the way, so we have closed the doors. Do not send the emails. And it is what it is. This is
52 00:09:45,750 --> 00:09:53,430 not a sales pitch. It's not meant for you to Hey, come in and join learn how to do this. Everyone that's already emailed me if you've email me, and we haven't
53 00:09:53,430 --> 00:10:02,250 gotten to yet, that's fine. We'll get to you and we'll consider you but anyone new. We're not taking anybody else in so It's too many people, it is what it is.
54 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:15,540 And we're done. But if you look at what has transpired since June of last year, we've had this extremely handsome price run on soybeans. So if you
55 00:10:16,560 --> 00:10:28,710 were to use the will say $8.80 a bushel, okay, right in here, you're not getting the best entry here, not getting the best entry here. But from 880, up to 1080,
56 00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:48,690 that's $10,000 per contract. Okay, that's $20,000 if it goes to 1280. Now, if it goes to 1480, that's another $10,000. How many Bitcoin moves? Have you seen in
57 00:10:48,690 --> 00:11:01,590 your lifetime as a crypto trader, the one we just recently seen, and the big run up in 2017, right? I called 2017. And I called the top, then I mentioned many
58 00:11:01,590 --> 00:11:14,370 times that your new traders that got exposed to crypto feels like that's the only market that traders could have gotten wealthy on. And I kind of taught this
59 00:11:14,370 --> 00:11:25,440 back in 2017, and 2018, and 2019. Every time I get a new student that the first question comes to mind is, you know, do you regret missing Bitcoin, because I've
60 00:11:25,470 --> 00:11:35,610 been very public and state that I don't trade crypto, I didn't trade Bitcoin.  But whenever I make my calls public, obviously, it comes with a great deal of
61 00:11:36,420 --> 00:11:47,280 kickback if it if it opposes the view of a certain group of my audience members.  I don't do this to upset anyone purposely. But you know, I get more requests for
62 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:56,880 me sharing what I think is going to happen, then people coming back and saying, I really wish you wouldn't have said that. So I try to be as open as I possibly
63 00:11:56,880 --> 00:12:06,240 can and tell you what I think is going to happen, where I think it's going to go and for the most part, why I think it's going to go there. And every call that
64 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:17,190 I've made publicly, you're welcome to look at and weigh in the balances. But these are big moves that take place in the commodity market. And you don't need
65 00:12:17,190 --> 00:12:33,810 a Bitcoin move to define wealth, because what you see here can be the same thing, if not more than what you saw in Bitcoin. This past, what, seven months,
66 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:45,990 or six or seven months to the same amount of money that one could have made in that Bitcoin run, you could do in this right here. And I stated this very
67 00:12:45,990 --> 00:12:56,910 market, when I was making the case and argument with the crypto traders that were saying, I should be regretting not being a part of the largest bull market
68 00:12:57,270 --> 00:13:05,760 in history. Well, there's always a big bull market, there's always a big mega trade. Okay, every year, the markets create them. And I tried to state this
69 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:17,970 before that I have tools that help me ferret those out. And one of the things that I look for is a seasonal tendency, if a seasonal tendency indicates that
70 00:13:17,970 --> 00:13:29,520 the markets likely to go up by itself doesn't mean anything. But if we can find a time when the market is bullish, and a seasonal tendency, is suggesting that
71 00:13:29,550 --> 00:13:38,490 historically, it usually goes up, then we have something to work with. And then it's a matter of just waiting for market structure to get in sync with those two
72 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:50,940 underlying premise if the market is bullish, and the market is showing a bullish seasonal tendency, we wait for the market to give us a bullish market structure.
73 00:13:51,960 --> 00:14:02,820 So we have multiple things in here. And I've talked about soybeans before. So I'm not going to try to redo that here and waste time. But we we see markets,
74 00:14:03,060 --> 00:14:11,130 making runs like this a lot in hindsight, but it's all together something different when you're able to see it, outline it before it happens and call it
75 00:14:11,460 --> 00:14:27,780 with you know a large degree of depreciation on the upside. So we're seeing huge amount of potential price run that would otherwise be either ignored or not
76 00:14:27,930 --> 00:14:36,060 expected. There's a lot of people on YouTube that are claiming they got the signals that work they got the calls that make the money they got this and they
77 00:14:36,060 --> 00:14:45,270 got that and they're pointing to these tiny little add fluctuations in the marketplace. Tiny little fluctuations. And I outlined for free gave it to you on
78 00:14:45,270 --> 00:15:02,370 a silver platter. 30,000 points in Bitcoin publicly given to you. If you look at the soybean market, I showed you that one as well. And a month ago, I tipped you
79 00:15:02,370 --> 00:15:16,230 off with corn. So let's take a look at corn. All right, I'm going to go to corn.  And we'll use the nearby contract, which is March 2021.
80 00:15:17,609 --> 00:15:33,239 Okay, so here you go a month ago, right? There, okay, corn. Going to go higher, it's gonna be the next big move. That's in the community tab on my YouTube
81 00:15:33,239 --> 00:15:49,469 channel. unedited. Okay, I got a lot of flack from people saying that I've used rented servers, that I've done fraud, that I cheat people, I lie to people, I
82 00:15:49,469 --> 00:15:59,099 give them a false impression that I can trade. And nobody's ever seen me call markets before it happens. And it's just, that still finds its way in
83 00:15:59,099 --> 00:16:11,399 discussions in certain corners on the internet. And I have been giving you million dollar maker moves. Okay, I'm giving you the big moves. Because I can,
84 00:16:11,759 --> 00:16:21,719 I'm sharing them publicly, I'm not selling them, I'm not making you come into my mentorship to get them. I'm giving you for free, because I can afford to do
85 00:16:21,719 --> 00:16:32,909 that. I don't need to have people pay me for signals. I'm interested in teaching you how to find these things. And honestly, everything on this YouTube channel
86 00:16:33,539 --> 00:16:44,609 shows you how to find these moves. But you don't want to listen to the discussions and the lecture points that are boring. And it's one thing that you
87 00:16:44,609 --> 00:16:52,799 see people go out and take my content. And just give me some latitude here. I'm going to make this point. A lot of people out here taking my stuff and making
88 00:16:52,799 --> 00:17:01,079 YouTube videos about it. Because times are tough right now. And they want to try to get a group get over 1000 subscribers since they start making some ad
89 00:17:01,079 --> 00:17:08,999 revenue, because they need to hustle because either lost their job or they're paranoid because everything's going on this year and past year rather. And they
90 00:17:08,999 --> 00:17:22,139 need to make money. I understand that. Okay. But when you are trying to teach something that you don't know, you're doing more harm to the audience. And if
91 00:17:22,139 --> 00:17:30,989 you think you know what I can do, and what I teach, then you should be able to pull out these market moves before they happen to not talk about them in
92 00:17:30,989 --> 00:17:40,799 hindsight. That's the difference between me. Everybody says, oh, ICT is a scalper he's an intraday trader. He's mister 10 pips 20 pips? No, but I can do
93 00:17:40,799 --> 00:17:51,509 more with that type of trading than anybody else that's trading these larger big position trade swings, because I can parlay that up and have velocity behind the
94 00:17:51,509 --> 00:18:02,249 equity. But you don't need to trade a lot. If you listen to what I teach, you can sit back and be very passive and investment and capture these big moves,
95 00:18:02,699 --> 00:18:18,479 we're going to assume that you were in here around the $4.20 a bushel and above today $5.20 a bushel, that is a $5,000 price move per contract. Now, it took a
96 00:18:18,479 --> 00:18:32,309 month to get it. But if you would have had say, I don't know 10 call options, you wouldn't have had the Full Exposure required for margin to do the trade, you
97 00:18:32,309 --> 00:18:41,069 could have done some call options. And whatever you paid for the option that would be the amount of risk total plus commission that you would have looked at
98 00:18:41,249 --> 00:18:54,629 as incurred risk. five grand for a month. Some of you probably don't make that in a month. I know when I was working as a younger man. I wasn't making that
99 00:18:54,629 --> 00:19:07,739 much money. Now we're talking about back in the 80s. But 1980s it's it sounds funny to say it like that. And I'm laughing because I think about how my son was
100 00:19:07,769 --> 00:19:17,579 asking me earlier before I made this video. He asked me he just said what cool cars were there back in the 1900s. And he to hear him say it that way made it
101 00:19:17,579 --> 00:19:35,369 sound like I'm even older than I really am. The the idea of looking for these types of price moves and seeing how much is available on one position. Okay, if
102 00:19:35,369 --> 00:19:42,179 you can find trades like this, and it can present moves like this or like what I showed in the soybean market.
103 00:19:43,530 --> 00:19:55,680 Those types of moves if you can find them and ferret them out over time, they can make you wealthy. Now the problem is this. Like it was for me when I first
104 00:19:55,680 --> 00:20:08,430 started in 1992. I read a book Ken Roberts His commodity course. And you all probably heard us enough, I'm not going to beat it up even more. But I felt that
105 00:20:08,430 --> 00:20:17,940 I was going to be one of those success stories. And I was going to make a fortune in my first year. And I was going to do everything the book said, and my
106 00:20:17,940 --> 00:20:27,900 first trade of lost 50% of the account, I've made no bones about it, it is what it is. And even my students that first come to my YouTube channel, or they
107 00:20:27,900 --> 00:20:38,910 traded other markets, and they've tasted pain and loss, because they don't really know what they're doing, then you see what I do in these videos, and it
108 00:20:38,910 --> 00:20:47,310 opens their eyes to what they did not know. And they can go into the old data and say, Wow, I can really see this is making perfect sense. That's the
109 00:20:47,310 --> 00:20:54,930 difference between understanding what the markets really do versus what the markets did, and then write a book about it, you know that it doesn't work. It
110 00:20:54,930 --> 00:21:05,280 doesn't help, okay, if all these books were able to help people make money, then they wouldn't need to make more books. The people that made books 100 years ago,
111 00:21:05,790 --> 00:21:15,630 would have been enough, there would be no reason to make another book. So it's this trap that you all follow. And I did it to trust me, I did it. I wasted a
112 00:21:15,630 --> 00:21:26,220 fortune on buying books and courses when I first started. And honestly, none of that crap worked. None of it, it caused me to lose more and feel even more
113 00:21:26,220 --> 00:21:38,880 insecure about myself. And it, it was like an endless circle of always learning but never coming to the truth. When I got exposed to how the markets really
114 00:21:38,940 --> 00:21:51,480 book, it changed everything. And I went back in and turned everything else upside down, and it started working. These ideas here, I'm just gonna make it
115 00:21:51,480 --> 00:22:03,660 very easy for you. If you go to Amazon, and you buy the book, how I made a million dollars trading commodities last year by Larry Williams. Okay. Let's go
116 00:22:03,660 --> 00:22:10,440 over to Amazon, and I'll show you what that looks like. Alright, so here's the book I'm talking about. And you've heard me mentioned this before. So this is
117 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:17,730 where you can go and get it. Notice that I'm not giving you a link, I'm not doing an affiliate program, I'm not trying to get paid for you making a
118 00:22:17,730 --> 00:22:28,260 purchase. I'm just freely giving you the information. If you don't want to buy the book, then don't buy the book. But this book was one of the first books that
119 00:22:28,260 --> 00:22:42,240 I bought that made sense and made me money. So the things I like about this book, and let's see if I can pull it up here a table of contents, this chapter
120 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:57,540 here, chapter four, where he says my million dollar fundamental system. And going into this area here, he basically covers all of the most important things
121 00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:08,190 that make commodity markets move on a large scale. Okay. So all of these things in your chapter four, that to me, is
122 00:23:09,660 --> 00:23:20,700 the real shining chapter in it doesn't mean that there's other parts in this book that isn't interesting or noteworthy. But there are things like he talks
123 00:23:20,700 --> 00:23:28,380 about the phases of the moon, and the influence of buying and selling on that I don't subscribe to any of that. But I'm not here to beat him up because he was
124 00:23:28,380 --> 00:23:37,710 my first mentor. So at night, not trying to say that Ken Roberts wasn't a mentor, because he was a mentor, because that was the very first book I read.
125 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:47,970 But it lost money. Everything I did with it was completely abandon everything I learned from him. And the next mentor I had was Larry Williams. And this book
126 00:23:47,970 --> 00:24:03,000 was highly influential. Now, if you go through this book, you will see the effects and the impression that Larry had on me. And you can also see I amped
127 00:24:03,060 --> 00:24:12,540 up, especially if you're in the mentorship level stuff. Again, I hate to say it that way, because it sounds like I'm dying. I don't want anyone asking to join
128 00:24:12,540 --> 00:24:22,260 because I'm not taking anyone new. I have to keep putting that in there. I'm sorry. But if the students that, like we're all in a big room, okay, we were all
129 00:24:22,260 --> 00:24:31,950 like a live seminar. And I said, Okay, who's here that's in mentorship. Raise your hand and you'd see whatever number of people would be there to raise their
130 00:24:31,950 --> 00:24:41,130 hand and say, okay, who has gone through this book I'm talking about here. And they would raise their hand and I'd say okay, now raise your hand if you seen me
131 00:24:41,190 --> 00:24:54,210 amplify and fill in a lot of the things for precision based rules. With this information because this was the foundation I started with. I started with this
132 00:24:54,840 --> 00:25:05,700 and I built on it and I built on it and built on it and it just Further solidifies the importance of having a solid foundation. If you're going into
133 00:25:05,700 --> 00:25:26,700 this with like Elliott Wave, okay, or harmonic patterns, that is a niche, it's a gimmick. It's a stylized perception. It's not objective. It's not. It's
134 00:25:26,700 --> 00:25:38,700 subjective. This chapter for that is objective. Okay. And if you read it, you'll you'll know exactly what I'm referring to what makes it objective, it's rooted
135 00:25:38,730 --> 00:25:52,530 in real market truths that are either present in the marketplace, or they're not. It's binary. Whereas if we had a collection of people that traded harmonic
136 00:25:52,710 --> 00:26:01,890 patterns, or if we had a collection of people that traded Elliott Wave, they would have a difference of opinion, I'm certain of it, if we were given them the
137 00:26:01,890 --> 00:26:16,830 same market. And that is, what highlights the, in my mind the lunacy in following that kind of stuff. And don't get me wrong, I wasted years doing both
138 00:26:16,830 --> 00:26:25,650 of those things. Okay. I know about both of them. It isn't like I read a book.  And, you know, I never dabbled in it, I did all that stuff. I've done point and
139 00:26:25,650 --> 00:26:37,890 figure charts. I've done everything. I've done everything out there. And for as far as trading goes. And honestly, all of it is flawed. Because it doesn't start
140 00:26:38,730 --> 00:26:50,790 on the basis of having real logic behind it, it's based on a pattern by itself, they go in and looking for patterns or wave counts, versus understanding what it
141 00:26:50,790 --> 00:27:03,630 is that sets the market up for a move higher or lower, and where it should draw to. Now, Larry doesn't do that. But Larry gives you the three primary rules and
142 00:27:03,630 --> 00:27:13,410 tools that he looks for that sets up these big million dollar maker. Well, I shouldn't say million dollar maker, but fortune makers. Okay. What's a fortune
143 00:27:13,410 --> 00:27:25,860 to me, you know, if it makes $50,000, you know, that's a small fortune. You know, I don't look at $50,000, the same way I did when I was in 1992. But if I
144 00:27:25,860 --> 00:27:35,400 lost $50,000, I'd, you know, I want it back. You know, it's it's a meaningful amount of money to me. And to most of you listening, that's probably a
145 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:44,460 significant amount of money as well, especially if you're a new student and or never traded profitably, you would love to have that type of windfall victory in
146 00:27:44,460 --> 00:27:44,850 trading.
147 00:27:46,230 --> 00:27:58,560 If you're looking for a book, to give you a real solid foundation to understand why a market should go up, or go down this chapter right here in this very book,
148 00:27:59,010 --> 00:28:10,530 I think that you should subscribe to what's been shown in that chapter. I don't get anything for this. I don't get a kickback. Larry doesn't know I'm even doing
149 00:28:10,530 --> 00:28:23,880 it. And I mean, I've said this book many times over the last 10 years or 11 years now, talking about things from, you know, books that were influential, or
150 00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:38,430 books that were worth your time reading this the 1970s book 1970s, I was a child at the time when this was published, and put in print. And it's still effective
151 00:28:38,430 --> 00:28:50,040 today. Why? Because it's rooted on things that work. And the man made money with it, not a little bit of money, he made a million dollars. And then he did it
152 00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:58,740 again in 1987, for people that doubted and didn't believe he really made money with it. And he won the World Cup Robbins contest for futures trading in 1987,
153 00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:17,250 and still holds 11,000% as the highest percentage gain in that contest history.  So if you take this information, and go back into market like this, you'll see a
154 00:29:17,250 --> 00:29:28,350 lot of those things that he's teaching exists in this market here. Okay. And before we had this big extrapolated price move here. I told you in my community
155 00:29:28,350 --> 00:29:42,630 tab on my YouTube channel, right here a month ago, corn will be next. And I gave you two fundamental reasons why okay. So, when it comes to fundamental data, I
156 00:29:42,630 --> 00:29:52,800 do consider it when it comes to livestock, like feeder cattle, live cattle, lean hogs, they're all commodity markets. I look at it in regards to the grain
157 00:29:52,800 --> 00:30:03,690 reports. Apart from that, I do not consider fundamental data at all. But if I'm trading agriculture, markets, which are commodity markets, as I just mentioned,
158 00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:16,050 then I'm going to consider it. And other markets like the food groups like coffee, cocoa and sugar. If we go into if we look at coffee, this is kind of
159 00:30:16,050 --> 00:30:27,630 like the, the heart of the teaching here today. If you look at this price fractal, it is something that I have taught many times with the medium of forex.
160 00:30:28,350 --> 00:30:36,930 And I'll give you a minute, pause the video before I put the annotations up. But try to look at what you think you see in this price action. And then when you're
161 00:30:36,930 --> 00:30:50,460 ready, unpause the video and you'll see my annotations and discussion going forward. Okay, we're going to add annotations now. Alright, so we're looking at
162 00:30:50,460 --> 00:31:03,750 coffee, okay, and there is a seasonal tendency for coffee to rally about the second week or third week of July, I want you to consider the likelihood of mid
163 00:31:03,750 --> 00:31:15,180 July being a seasonal tendency for coffee to go higher. Now, think about what I showed you on the dollar index. In July, it was going lower, it created an
164 00:31:15,180 --> 00:31:27,090 important high and it just fell out of bed went lower. That again sets the stage for markets to go higher in the commodity market, just like it does in forex. So
165 00:31:27,090 --> 00:31:39,870 from having a macro perspective, and looking at things seasonally blending those things together. It gives us framework to find really big moves, you don't have
166 00:31:39,870 --> 00:31:48,300 to be an intraday trader, you don't have to worry about the power three on a daily candle. If you don't have time to do that. If you don't have the life
167 00:31:48,780 --> 00:31:57,540 framework that promotes that type of trading, you don't need to do it. Don't feel like you have to be an intraday trader, don't feel that you have to be a
168 00:31:57,540 --> 00:32:03,390 short term trader. If you look at these types of price moves, and you think, wow, you know, I could be a participant in something like that. That makes
169 00:32:03,390 --> 00:32:11,100 sense. I don't want to have to be relying on making a decision each day buying and selling, buying and selling, because that takes a certain type of
170 00:32:11,100 --> 00:32:22,890 personality that isn't really everyone's cup of tea. Now. I started with this type of trading, swing trade position trading, I started that way. And it was
171 00:32:22,890 --> 00:32:31,980 like pulling teeth. I just couldn't endure it. I didn't want to deal with it, it was too slow. Doesn't mean I can't do it. Technically, it just
172 00:32:31,980 --> 00:32:43,590 means I can't submit to it from a personality standpoint. But the analysis concepts that I use, this helps me frame every type of trade that I'm
173 00:32:43,590 --> 00:32:53,700 comfortable with, which is day trading intraday and short term. That's my forte, that's where I Excel. And I can find lots of those types of day trades, short
174 00:32:53,700 --> 00:33:02,850 term trades or swing trades intraday in the overall price model that's being shown here. Now, what am I actually shown here? Well, if you look at the
175 00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:10,680 relative equal Highs over here, you know, this is a buy side liquidity pool and the market will likely want to go back to that point, we also have a
176 00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:22,170 consolidation that leaves the consolidation comes back up to the consolidation in here and drops lower. And another level of decline hits a important level 110
177 00:33:22,170 --> 00:33:31,380 rallies breaks the short term high here. So we have a shift in market structure.  So when the market comes back down into a bullish order block, which is this
178 00:33:31,380 --> 00:33:40,710 down close candle right there, we have an optimal trade entry. So we're using the lowest low to the highest high, projecting that up, that gives us two and a
179 00:33:40,710 --> 00:33:57,750 half standard deviations. And above the buy sell liquidity pool. So that means about $1.34 per pound for coffee as an upside objective back here in July, mid
180 00:33:57,750 --> 00:34:08,850 July. When the seasonal tendency for coffee is bullish, the market rallies up it touches these relative equal highs sells off a little bit goes back into a
181 00:34:08,850 --> 00:34:20,010 bullish order block here. And we have an optimal trade entry that sends it up again to a target above the buy sell liquidity pool resting at relative equal
182 00:34:20,010 --> 00:34:32,070 highs. So if you look at the total range, I'm gonna take this off here. If you look at the total range from this run here to hear, you can't say that you would
183 00:34:32,070 --> 00:34:40,860 be a buyer here but you can assume that you're close to this area here not at this very low at 101. Which is the best case area for a low and the best case
184 00:34:40,860 --> 00:35:02,160 area for an extra high is the 135 point 65. So inside this range, the best case which is impossible, would be 34.65 handles, okay or $375 times 34.6, because
185 00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:14,790 the point value for coffee is $3.75 per point, and every handle, and what's the handle from like, for instance, 134 to 135. That's one full handle that would be
186 00:35:14,790 --> 00:35:33,030 represented by $375. That's 100 points, or one handle price move. In this case, the price moved $12,993.75 per contract. From here, to here. All of this is a
187 00:35:33,030 --> 00:35:46,710 market maker by model with a seasonal tendency, mid July, with the dollar index, selling off in July, which we were looking for ourselves as my group was falling
188 00:35:46,710 --> 00:35:59,580 along. In this type of price move here is what I teach, I teach these types of moves. I don't say buy here sell there, but I guide you, in every year, I take
189 00:35:59,580 --> 00:36:06,810 my students back in and say, Okay, this is the seasonal tendency, this is what we were looking for. This is what he called in dollar index, it sets the tone
190 00:36:06,810 --> 00:36:18,480 for all these other markets, I point to the markets to have these potential extrapolated price moves. And we've looked at corn, there's $5,000, we looked at
191 00:36:18,510 --> 00:36:33,480 soybeans, 20 $30,000. There, we have Bitcoin 30,000 points, I'm not sure what that will equate to you in terms of dollars. But the these are moves that are
192 00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:47,130 not small, they're very significant, their major moves. And if your tools can help you ferret out these types of price action moves every single year, this is
193 00:36:47,130 --> 00:36:58,920 where the majority of your focus should be. But you will not find them. If you're just lazy going through the charts looking for any old pattern. For the
194 00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:07,050 pattern sake, you have to have the logic behind it. So notice what I've combined here, I've combined a market maker by model, which is what I teach even on this
195 00:37:07,050 --> 00:37:18,030 YouTube channel for free. Big round number $1 per pound, for coffee, and I'll let you go out to the higher timeframe charts, you can do that on your own, and
196 00:37:18,030 --> 00:37:31,740 see what $1 Mark looks like in hindsight. And so you can see a big support level around there. And also, if you use the KC, let's just do it.
197 00:37:33,210 --> 00:37:47,490 Okay, see, and then use the front current month, uses my tacy number one exclamation, you click on that. And you'll see that we have this down close
198 00:37:47,490 --> 00:38:00,090 candle. Prior to this run up, there's your order block, all it's done, was worked off of that went right into here and created your optimal trade entry.
199 00:38:01,770 --> 00:38:15,870 And then in rally, now, you have to use the trading months contract when you're looking at commodities, whereas this is just a cumulative chart of all of the
200 00:38:15,900 --> 00:38:28,860 nearby current front month contracts. Right now the current contract month for coffee is March 2021. prior to March 21, it was December 2020. And then prior to
201 00:38:28,860 --> 00:38:37,950 that it was September 2020. So these contracts expire in the commodity market.  forex you don't have that issue, okay. But in futures or if you're trading
202 00:38:37,950 --> 00:38:47,280 commodity markets, you have to be aware of that. So if you're looking at over here, we don't have those pretty easy to see relative equal highs, like we see
203 00:38:47,310 --> 00:38:48,840 in the March contract.
204 00:38:54,720 --> 00:39:05,970 Here, see that. So you have to look at what's available in the price action. But you all know, the market maker by model, you understand the optimal trade entry,
205 00:39:05,970 --> 00:39:15,750 because that's the flagship pattern here in this channel. And you understand order blocks have introduced them publicly here. And we know that a run on
206 00:39:15,750 --> 00:39:25,320 relatively equal highs is the draw on liquidity. That's a standard procedure that I've taught very publicly here on this channel. And it's caught fire and
207 00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:33,180 everybody's talking about it now. That's wonderful. I just wished it the folks that were doing that would just make a reference and say, hey, look, you know, I
208 00:39:33,180 --> 00:39:41,040 picked this up from ICT and you'll get more respect for me by doing that. It doesn't mean go and take everything I have and teach it all over again. But I
209 00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:50,850 know that this was going to be popular when I gave it out. And it's unfortunate a lot of people trying to glory hound and take credit for something they didn't
210 00:39:50,910 --> 00:40:03,720 earn or work for. So these are pretty big moves. And every single year we have these types of moves. So you don't need one of these types of moves. Okay? I
211 00:40:03,720 --> 00:40:19,380 mean, people waited around for years for this to occur in here, I call it 6002 20. And then change gears before 20 and said, No, it's not going to go. So
212 00:40:19,380 --> 00:40:31,980 at 19 seven, it says gonna go to 6000. And then from when we got to 6600 3000, and failed to be accurate there and went to like 3400, or 32, I can't recall
213 00:40:31,980 --> 00:40:48,060 exactly where it was. But the point is, is eventually dropped down to something in here. I'm not sure exactly what the low was. Yeah, 32 something or 3131 22 in
214 00:40:48,060 --> 00:40:56,850 there. And then we had this little run here in 2019. And everybody thought that was gonna run about here. I was like, No, I don't think it's gonna happen. And
215 00:40:56,850 --> 00:41:10,200 we tanked here during the pandemic. And then that extreme, set the stage for the low. And then from that point, all the way up to where we went to 42 something,
216 00:41:11,010 --> 00:41:38,370 or is it that 40 42,000? And that was it. And then we fell out of bed. So it dropped 10,000 points in short order. And here doesn't want to go lower. I don't
217 00:41:38,370 --> 00:41:48,420 know. To me, it doesn't have a seasonal tendency yet. So it doesn't fit this discussion. But I'm trying to draw a contrast. And please don't take this as me
218 00:41:48,420 --> 00:41:56,760 kicking sand in the face of crypto traders. Okay, I'm not doing that I've done in the past. Like, I'm not, I'm not trying to say I didn't do that in the past,
219 00:41:56,760 --> 00:42:09,630 because I did. But all I'm trying to remind you is that big market moves did weren't invented by crypto, okay, there are fortune Making Moves occurring every
220 00:42:09,630 --> 00:42:20,280 single year for those individuals that know how to find them. And that's why people like myself, used to have a lot of fun reading people saying that
221 00:42:20,910 --> 00:42:31,050 everybody else that isn't trading crypto can't catch big, huge windfall price moves like it created in 2017, and 2019. And now obviously, what we're seeing in
222 00:42:31,050 --> 00:42:45,090 2020, going into 2021. There's a way to find these big moves. And I gave you the foundation that I started with. Now, that's not all that I do. I've put a lot of
223 00:42:45,090 --> 00:42:55,440 structure on top of that foundation, that's unique to me. It's not like off, okay, it's not supply and demand. It's not all those things that people like to
224 00:42:55,440 --> 00:43:04,710 say it is because they want to use those those name tags when they're teaching my content. And you hear him saying order block, you hear him say breaker, these
225 00:43:04,710 --> 00:43:15,720 are terms I invented, I invented those terms. They're coined by me. So when I hear them, and if my students hear them right away, you know, you just know that
226 00:43:15,720 --> 00:43:25,620 this is a derivative of what I have been teaching. And it just it's offensive to see people do that, and not give credit where it's due. Because you didn't
227 00:43:25,620 --> 00:43:42,990 endure all the hardships, all the pain, the loss monetarily, family, friends, everything and sanity in many instances to get this. So hopefully, you can now
228 00:43:43,020 --> 00:43:47,820 think about how seasonal tendencies and I gave you one in this lesson here.
229 00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:57,630 Coffee is one that if you go back and look at your data, now here's what's going to happen, I'm only going to predict this, okay. You're going to hear in certain
230 00:43:57,630 --> 00:44:08,880 circles, if you are part of one that has the conversation of ICT coming up once in a while, they're going to go into the charts and they're gonna look for times
231 00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:19,860 where in July mid July, coffee didn't go up, it's going to go down. Well, you got to look at what the markets been doing ahead of July. If it's bullish going
232 00:44:19,860 --> 00:44:33,270 into July, that's your indication that this is a good strong seasonal tendency for coffee. And there are times where if you look at coffee and some of you're
233 00:44:33,270 --> 00:44:46,050 like I ain't never trading coffee, why is this guy keep talking about this, this market? If you look at coffee on a weekly chart, okay, and you can see we've had
234 00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:55,350 some spikes and such, okay, but you want to study go back as far as the data will permit it. But looking at all this right here. Is this market bullish or
235 00:44:55,350 --> 00:45:07,290 bearish? It's obviously bearish. So are you going to be likely to anticipate a mid July run higher in coffee in this instance, here's the thing it can happen,
236 00:45:07,290 --> 00:45:19,950 but it's most likely not going to happen. Okay, is that very clear for you? If the markets bullish, like it's been here, then in July There you go, there's
237 00:45:19,950 --> 00:45:32,430 July right there is going to run higher then. Now if you look at something that's bearish, it's fine. July in mid July. Now we get we have a little bit of
238 00:45:32,430 --> 00:45:38,880 a run, but look how fast it gives up the ghost and goes lower, you see that there's a difference between knowing what you're talking about and just trying
239 00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:53,520 to look for something to say it doesn't work. That's what trolls do. That's what critics do. Here's another area bearish July right here mid July. There. Okay.
240 00:45:53,970 --> 00:46:01,500 Ahead of that, is it bullish or bearish? It's been going lower. So as a seasonal tendency, likely to send coffee higher on that year? No. And look what happened.
241 00:46:01,530 --> 00:46:19,380 It fell out of bed even more. So if you look at a time when we had a break in market structure here, we have mid July, right there. Right there. It dropped a
242 00:46:19,380 --> 00:46:29,670 little bit and then dropped again. So it was a break in market structure. But it has it really made a bullish move. Not yet. It's still in transition in here.
243 00:46:32,100 --> 00:46:45,540 Same thing, we're going to go to a July. And that's last year. And there you go.  So I'll counsel you to go back and look at all the times when coffee was
244 00:46:45,540 --> 00:47:08,610 bullish. And when it was bearish. Okay, here's a nice area where it's been bullish right. July, mid July, right there. Bam. Higher. Now, we had reached a
245 00:47:08,610 --> 00:47:18,600 level of inherent and I'll let you look at the higher timeframe charts, and study it, but here's July that year. And it rallies doesn't take up the high but
246 00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:26,880 that's a nice rally, but then it falls out of bed, because we hit an important level here. And I'll let you go back and look at what that is historically,
247 00:47:27,030 --> 00:47:37,740 using a monthly chart. And I'm really doing you a disservice by trying to go through some of them. I'm just giving you the argument that some of my critics,
248 00:47:37,890 --> 00:47:48,420 you know, the thumbs down crew, they like to thumbs down the video, the which I love. I love that because it makes me smile. Who can look at videos like this,
249 00:47:48,570 --> 00:48:03,150 where I'm literally giving you lottery ticket winning numbers that work over and over and over again. Okay, for free. I'm doing this for free. There's no sales
250 00:48:03,150 --> 00:48:16,440 pitch, you can join my mentorship now. I just love doing this. And if you like these kinds of lessons, and you find it useful to you, or inspiring, you just
251 00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:24,090 give it a thumbs up. It doesn't cost you anything, just click the thumbs up. And there it is, it's done. Why do I want that to happen? Because I want this
252 00:48:24,090 --> 00:48:34,890 channel to be bigger than it is. Because there's a lot of people out here on YouTube that are misinforming people with things that don't work. And the
253 00:48:34,890 --> 00:48:39,600 trading community could really use a breath of fresh air. And
254 00:48:40,260 --> 00:48:48,750 everybody that came into my mentorship, that's it, there's no more sales pitch.  There's no more 2020 to 20 nothing, like I'm done. I'm trying to get all of
255 00:48:48,750 --> 00:48:58,650 mentorship teaching done. I'm getting all the payment stuff done. And then I'm going back to being who I was before 2016. In August when I started this
256 00:48:58,650 --> 00:49:06,030 mentorship doesn't mean I'm not going to continue with my mentorship group and give them private teachings. Just I don't want to be focusing on I just want to
257 00:49:06,030 --> 00:49:13,860 go back to doing it relax and have time to do like I'm doing here. If you couldn't afford the mentorship, just know that I'm still going to present
258 00:49:14,010 --> 00:49:24,570 lessons here. I'm not going to teach the same level. Obviously for those that join my mentorship. That would be unfair, and it'd be unreasonable. But there is
259 00:49:24,570 --> 00:49:36,480 a plethora of wisdom in these videos. And if you've only watched them one time, you didn't get it all. You have to go through it a few times and take notes and
260 00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:45,840 then study some charts and then you'll find out that you've seen something that if you go back and listen to the videos again, it'll mean more to you. And it'll
261 00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:53,820 feel just like a new video was given to you. And it's the same video I gave you from the beginning. It's just they're very dense. There's a lot of like this
262 00:49:53,820 --> 00:50:03,210 video, there's a lot of things and nuggets in it, that if you learn a little bit more with practice This, you will appreciate the things I've said that would
263 00:50:03,210 --> 00:50:10,650 otherwise have been glossed over by you by your attention and just not being dialed in. Because you don't know the importance of the things I'm saying. But
264 00:50:10,650 --> 00:50:18,510 for those individuals that have been a commodity trader, maybe some of you are futures traders, and you've traded commodity markets, and maybe you traded
265 00:50:18,510 --> 00:50:30,210 coffee before, and you never were aware of something like this, this is something that you can plan and predict months in advance. So when we get to
266 00:50:30,210 --> 00:50:38,310 July, if the markets been bullish, you can anticipate something like this unfolding. Now, obviously, it doesn't give you an entry pattern, it doesn't give
267 00:50:38,310 --> 00:50:49,020 you an exit pattern. It doesn't give you the stop loss. But I'm teaching you a foundational idea, which is important, you have to have an understanding of why
268 00:50:49,020 --> 00:50:56,820 a market should even be doing anything at all, just because you think you see something harmonic, or you think you see something that's an Elliott Wave based
269 00:50:56,820 --> 00:51:07,530 idea, or even a supply and demand idea doesn't mean anything by itself, just like an order block by itself means absolutely nothing, you have to have some
270 00:51:07,530 --> 00:51:18,360 context. And you can't get any better as a context than having a seasonal impact behind a market move that has happened historically over and over and over
271 00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:29,490 again. And you can see it, you can visually see it and coupling that when it's bullish. And there's lots of seasonal tendencies. There's other seasonal
272 00:51:29,490 --> 00:51:39,150 tendencies for coffee for it to go down specific times of the year. And there's other times when predisposed to go up to and the same premise, you go into it
273 00:51:39,180 --> 00:51:49,350 looking for what the market was bullish or bearish going into that specific seasonal tendency. And by blending that with market structure, and they'll be in
274 00:51:49,350 --> 00:52:00,030 a risk on or risk off environment that goes back to the dollar index. If you're, if you're expecting a buy signal in commodities, but you don't see a weaker
275 00:52:00,030 --> 00:52:09,810 dollar, you're probably looking at a market that isn't gonna pan out for you doesn't mean it's always like that, it just means that the probability has
276 00:52:09,870 --> 00:52:23,580 shifted to a very low probability in your favor. versus if you were expecting a move higher in a commodity market, and the dollar index was bearish. And you can
277 00:52:23,580 --> 00:52:34,080 see it going lower, then you have a risk on scenario, because dollar is going lower. And that other market, that would be in a normal perspective, it would be
278 00:52:34,080 --> 00:52:43,860 an inverse expectation. So dollar lower commodities higher. So there's this relationship of macro and I talked a little bit about that. And I'll take you to
279 00:52:43,860 --> 00:53:01,110 the post on my community tab. Now. This is the post I did today. And again, Today is January 12 2021. And I did a post like this earlier this morning. And I
280 00:53:01,110 --> 00:53:11,460 talked about the importance of using seasonal tendencies. And it's the the main thing I think everyone should try to focus on. Because there are specific times
281 00:53:11,460 --> 00:53:23,190 of the year that you should be focusing on one side of the marketplace, and not the other, it doesn't mean that you abandon the other side of the marketplace.
282 00:53:23,490 --> 00:53:34,500 Because what's really interesting, and I'm gonna finalize this video with this point. If there is a time when the market is seasonally bullish, you can look at
283 00:53:34,500 --> 00:53:37,920 the seasonal tendency as a way of timing
284 00:53:37,980 --> 00:53:46,620 the other direction because the markets find a way to punish those individuals that look for these types of patterns and that don't exist. And I'll say it like
285 00:53:46,620 --> 00:53:55,200 this. If you're bullish on the market, and the seasonal tendencies bullish in the market structure is bullish, then you have a high probability buy with the
286 00:53:55,200 --> 00:54:09,720 dollar being bearish. Okay. If you are bearish on a market and the market structure is bearish, and the dollar index is bullish, then you have high
287 00:54:09,720 --> 00:54:21,840 probability in your favor. If you see a bullish seasonal tendency, and we'll use coffee as an example here, if we have this seasonal tendency mid July, and the
288 00:54:21,840 --> 00:54:37,380 markets been bearish going into that mid July time period, we don't look for a buy, we would look for a short term rally to sell short into and then probably
289 00:54:37,380 --> 00:54:47,940 see a better price delivery on the downside as a result, because the seasonal tendency would not be there. And that gives us many times what I mentioned here,
290 00:54:48,240 --> 00:54:59,130 the departure from the norm in price action that tends to incite excitement in price action and opportunities. So it's far more important for you to know this
291 00:54:59,160 --> 00:55:08,850 then and then pattern, because it gives you the foundation to why a market should have a big move. Because if you're in trading or trying to get into
292 00:55:08,850 --> 00:55:18,840 trading just to get 10 pips 20 pips as a forex trader, okay? Or try to make 25 pips as a weekly objective, which is what I kind of like teach people to aim for
293 00:55:18,840 --> 00:55:27,120 in the beginning, I think that's a reasonable objective. It's not high and lofty. It's something that I think that it could be easily obtained. And you
294 00:55:27,120 --> 00:55:36,420 could still make a career off of that, as crazy as it may sound. But I don't want you thinking that that's all you can do with what I give you here on this
295 00:55:36,420 --> 00:55:44,880 YouTube channel, you could literally turn this into whatever you want it to be, you want to be a big swing trader catching mega trades. This is one way of going
296 00:55:44,880 --> 00:55:56,160 into it. Now, notice, I didn't even talk about Commitment of Traders, you notice that? Did you also notice that I didn't talk about breakers or mitigation
297 00:55:56,160 --> 00:56:07,260 blocks, see going on referring to there, I have a lot of moving parts. But you're able to take what makes sense to you, that resonates with you, and say,
298 00:56:07,260 --> 00:56:17,100 Okay, I'm going to use these things that make up my model. But if it doesn't have things that are rooted in market truths, you're not going to see those
299 00:56:17,100 --> 00:56:26,610 things pan out for you. It doesn't make a difference. The buzzwords the cool little names, the things that you see me show you in your charts doesn't make a
300 00:56:26,610 --> 00:56:41,160 difference, unless it's rooted and founded in rooted into market truth. And what is the market truth. The markets will move based on a higher timeframe premise.
301 00:56:42,150 --> 00:56:54,090 And when we're referring to agricultural markets, like foods, and grains, they are fundamentally driven by supply and demand factors. Those markets have real
302 00:56:54,120 --> 00:57:07,680 supply and demand. Every other market out there is manipulated. commodities are a real market to has supply and demand factors that govern them. They are the
303 00:57:07,710 --> 00:57:21,390 world's grocery store. So they have a real value like corn is always going to be worth something. But your share of Tesla could be worth 02 years from now is
304 00:57:21,390 --> 00:57:29,760 crazy. That might sound I'm not saying that's what's going to happen. But Tesla stocks the shares, there's no real reason to think that there's value behind
305 00:57:29,760 --> 00:57:42,000 that, or that it would be in perpetuity worth something. It doesn't mean that but it's viewed that it has that value right now. But corn will never go to
306 00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:55,740 worthlessness. It's a food, it'll always have value. And in times of turmoil, and what I anticipate going forward, there's going to be a shortage of food. And
307 00:57:55,740 --> 00:58:05,670 that shortage of food is going to put so much supply and demand pressure on these grains. And that's why you're seeing these big extrapolated price moves.
308 00:58:07,290 --> 00:58:16,290 Why? Because it's fundamentally driven. So if you're looking for supply and demand, and you want to trade supply and demand, you can't find a better way of
309 00:58:16,290 --> 00:58:28,080 doing it then trading commodities, period. That's real, it's real supply and demand. There's no real supply and demand with a currency. It's all manipulated,
310 00:58:28,710 --> 00:58:33,120 and in kryptos manipulated to bottom line is this.
311 00:58:34,470 --> 00:58:44,760 Don't think that you have to worry about making money in these tiny little intraday fluctuations. The same tools and premise that I teach with these
312 00:58:44,760 --> 00:58:59,670 intraday can be applied to the larger daily charts. And if I would have just told you that this chart here for corn. If I told you that was a an hourly chart
313 00:58:59,670 --> 00:59:11,280 or a 15 minute chart and didn't tell you what market it was, you wouldn't have known any different because prices price. But knowing where these big moves come
314 00:59:11,280 --> 00:59:21,840 from and putting your neck on the line. I do that. And if I don't know what I'm talking about, I would fall on my face miserably. And you keep seeing me
315 00:59:21,990 --> 00:59:33,150 pointing to the next big moves, pointing to the next big news. Because I have almost 30 years of experience doing this. I don't want to steer you wrong. I
316 00:59:33,150 --> 00:59:44,280 don't want to see you fail. I'm inspired by your excitement and your enthusiasm.  It motivates me. It keeps me going. Because it allows me to relive moments just
317 00:59:44,280 --> 00:59:53,430 like you're having right now. I went through that when you want to quit I went through that dozens of times. When you feel like you hit a homerun because you
318 00:59:53,430 --> 01:00:04,320 got more understanding and you can't sleep and you're excited. I've been there.  I know what that feels like. It's amazing, but no body around us gonna
319 01:00:04,320 --> 01:00:13,830 understand that excitement. Because they think what you're doing or trying to learn is nonsense. It's a pipe dream to them. But I know I went through that I
320 01:00:13,830 --> 01:00:23,940 had all that adversity, and everyone around me saying the same things. It's a waste of time. Don't believe any of that. Don't listen to that stuff. Stop
321 01:00:23,940 --> 01:00:33,540 talking about what you're planning on doing, and just do it. Don't share your dreams with other people, because they're going to tell you don't bother who
322 01:00:33,540 --> 01:00:45,660 wants to hear that. So dig into your charts, dig into the videos that you find on this YouTube channel. start studying, make 2021 the year that you've framed
323 01:00:45,690 --> 01:00:54,810 out a model that makes sense to you doesn't have to have all the moving parts available. But something that makes sense to you. That's rooted in why a market
324 01:00:54,810 --> 01:01:06,450 should go up or down and where it should reach for logically, I teach that here on this YouTube channel. And if you put the time into studying it, I promise you
325 01:01:06,450 --> 01:01:14,820 will find something that you can't find elsewhere. And at least for free. So until Talk to you next time, be safe, and good luck and good trading.