ICT YT - 2020-12-18 - ICT Forex Lesson - Keys To Daily Bias In The Forex Market.srt
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-11 14:57
| 1 | 00:00:32,850 --> 00:00:39,510 | ICT: Welcome back, folks, this is a short little presentation on keys to the daily bias in the Forex market. |
| 2 | 00:00:45,420 --> 00:00:50,070 | Alright, so we are looking at a crude depiction of a open, |
| 3 | 00:00:51,390 --> 00:00:52,770 | high low close bar. |
| 4 | 00:00:53,790 --> 00:01:05,790 | And this is a generic little pattern that I use to teach my power three. And basically power three is accumulation, manipulation and distribution, and how |
| 5 | 00:01:05,790 --> 00:01:09,510 | that is presented in a daily range. |
| 6 | 00:01:10,650 --> 00:01:24,240 | Now, this formation is not specific to only a daily chart, it's every timeframe. So the things that I'm teaching you here, don't think just in terms of the daily |
| 7 | 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:35,280 | range, because you can use it as a session range. Okay, the same premise that I'm going to be referring to here can be applied to just what occurs between |
| 8 | 00:01:36,450 --> 00:01:44,640 | two o'clock in the morning and five o'clock in the morning, New York time for London. And equally effective, it could be done for the time window between |
| 9 | 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:55,680 | seven o'clock in the morning and 10am New York time. Okay, so freedom gives you a lot of room for study. So you can go in there and mine, those things I just |
| 10 | 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:56,160 | gave you. |
| 11 | 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:10,710 | The idea of a daily bias, before I get into it, I'm gonna try to do as best I can to make this a very short and concise video. But the idea of daily bias, if |
| 12 | 00:02:10,710 --> 00:02:11,130 | I could |
| 13 | 00:02:12,510 --> 00:02:26,280 | be asked what was the only question I feel is the most repeated one, by email to me, whether it be my students in mentorship when they first join, or from people |
| 14 | 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:35,670 | all around the world through YouTube. And when I was on Twitter, which I'm not anymore, my number one question was obviously, what is the daily bias? And how |
| 15 | 00:02:35,670 --> 00:02:45,030 | could I know what that daily bias is? Because if I could do that, and I'll know how to day trade, and I've always said, rather facetiously, but not to be |
| 16 | 00:02:45,540 --> 00:02:54,900 | discouragement, that's not true, because you could have the bias, and you'll still do something wrong, because of your infancy as a trader. |
| 17 | 00:02:56,850 --> 00:03:09,660 | I'm gonna give you some things that are very generic, but are very powerful if you don't know them. Now, for the benefit of the new viewers here. Some of my |
| 18 | 00:03:09,690 --> 00:03:17,370 | old followers and friends will be bored with the next couple minutes, but, but it's something that's worth repeating. |
| 19 | 00:03:18,660 --> 00:03:29,460 | So I'm gonna talk about the architecture of the daily range. Okay, and we're going to assume, with a rather loose definition of bullish and bearish pneus, |
| 20 | 00:03:30,330 --> 00:03:33,630 | I've taught how to determine what that is in this YouTube channel. |
| 21 | 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:44,520 | But if you look at the idea of a market that is predisposed to go higher, and I'll cover a little bit of that in this presentation, but if we're looking at a |
| 22 | 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,940 | daily range, and we anticipate it being bullish, |
| 23 | 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:55,020 | it does not need to have the open below the high and an up close |
| 24 | 00:03:56,310 --> 00:04:03,540 | for me to have a bullish bias. Now, I don't care where that close price is. |
| 25 | 00:04:04,650 --> 00:04:12,360 | I just need to know, is it more likely to have the range expand to the upside, or the downside from the opening price? |
| 26 | 00:04:13,470 --> 00:04:20,820 | Okay, so I'm going to give you some things like I just did there, if you're not writing this stuff down, it's really pointless for you to watch the video |
| 27 | 00:04:20,820 --> 00:04:28,440 | because there isn't going to be this magic download from me saying something and you instantly understand it. You need to write it down and then go into your |
| 28 | 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:36,270 | charts and study these things, these specific characteristics and see if I'm not telling you the very truths of the marketplace. |
| 29 | 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:51,540 | So with the assumption that we are bullish, okay. The idea that say this is the euro dollar, and this is a daily range that you anticipate being bullish for |
| 30 | 00:04:51,540 --> 00:05:00,000 | that particular day. I'll cover in a moment how those things could be derived, doesn't mean it's 100%. My daily bias is not |
| 31 | 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:01,050 | 100% |
| 32 | 00:05:02,280 --> 00:05:12,960 | if I get something initially wrong about my bias early in the day, I may have something that constitutes a reversal of my analysis, or I have something that |
| 33 | 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:24,330 | completely negates the idea and I move to the sidelines. So it's important to know, there must be flexibility in your daily bias routine. Okay, so also, daily |
| 34 | 00:05:24,330 --> 00:05:32,100 | bias generally does not flip flop back and forth, bullish bullish down down bullish, bullish down down bullish, it doesn't do anything like that. It's |
| 35 | 00:05:32,100 --> 00:05:43,710 | predominantly when the market is bullish, we're looking for expansion on the upside. So trades that allow a move from the opening price higher, and not |
| 36 | 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:56,580 | requiring the close to be higher than the open. When I first started in the 90s, and I started getting good at the SMP and bonds, I required this when I was |
| 37 | 00:05:56,580 --> 00:06:06,090 | bullish. And I would usually hold to the close. And that right there sometimes would sting me because it would give this real big expansion day. And I would |
| 38 | 00:06:06,090 --> 00:06:17,010 | hold on to it think it's going to close even higher. And it would make basically collapse down to the opening or even below it. So I learned later on that even |
| 39 | 00:06:17,010 --> 00:06:25,320 | though the bias may be bullish, there is something that it's reaching for eventually. And when it hits that or reaches it, there's probably going to be a |
| 40 | 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:35,490 | reversal day, which was eventually the the combination of my reversal market profile. But that's beyond the scope here. But the architecture of the daily |
| 41 | 00:06:35,490 --> 00:06:44,250 | range, the first and most important thing is if we're bullish or bearish, is that opening price? So the question is, is what is the opening price? |
| 42 | 00:06:46,140 --> 00:06:56,190 | You can go and simply use the opening price at midnight, New York time. Okay, whatever that opening prices for the market, you're trading, |
| 43 | 00:06:57,300 --> 00:07:08,820 | that is the opening price to me. Okay, that that's an opening price that I could use with this idea here. If I'm bullish, I want to be buying near or in the best |
| 44 | 00:07:08,820 --> 00:07:18,420 | case scenario below that opening price with the expectation that I'm buying, usually the low of the day or very close to it. Or if I miss it, okay, say I was |
| 45 | 00:07:18,420 --> 00:07:28,320 | a little ambitious. And I had a limit order that was just beyond the scope of what the daily range reached down for, for that particular day, then I have to |
| 46 | 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:38,490 | decide whether or not I'm going to participate and trade something closer to the opening price, or just above it, which is not like breaking a rule or anything, |
| 47 | 00:07:38,670 --> 00:07:47,790 | it just means that it's better to be trading at the opening price or below when bullish. And if we're bearish, we want to be trading short at or above the |
| 48 | 00:07:47,790 --> 00:07:58,020 | opening price. And that's the highest probability low risk scenario this can't get any better than that. And if you study daily ranges when the markets bullish |
| 49 | 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:07,320 | and study where that opening prices at midnight, it doesn't happen all the time. It's not an every day bias filter, like it doesn't give you an everyday thing. |
| 50 | 00:08:07,890 --> 00:08:17,190 | It just means that you go into your day with that expectation that if you're bullish, you want to be buying at or very near the opening price or below it. So |
| 51 | 00:08:17,190 --> 00:08:23,010 | we're going to use this idea here everything I'm saying you just reverse it when it's a potential bearish scenario. |
| 52 | 00:08:24,270 --> 00:08:32,520 | So the opening price is the most important. Okay, and it's again, the opening price at midnight. How do you arrive at that? What is the opening price on your |
| 53 | 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:41,880 | 15 minute chart? There you go. So draw that out in time usually extended out to around 11 o'clock in the morning, New York time. Now why that time of day, it's |
| 54 | 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:51,600 | smack dab in the middle of London close London close kills in for me is 10 o'clock in the morning to noon, New York time. Now it can go a little bit beyond |
| 55 | 00:08:51,600 --> 00:09:00,930 | noon and sometimes go into one o'clock in the afternoon. But by and large 10 o'clock in the morning to noon, New York time, that's London close kill zone as |
| 56 | 00:09:00,930 --> 00:09:12,390 | I define it. So if you just use the one hour mark, right in between the two at 11 o'clock, draw that opening price out to that period, every single day and |
| 57 | 00:09:12,390 --> 00:09:20,010 | study that, go back and look at your back testing and take copious notes. Seriously, take a |
| 58 | 00:09:21,630 --> 00:09:28,590 | a major undertaking with back testing and studying the things I'm teaching you here and also the things I've taught in this YouTube channel. And you're going |
| 59 | 00:09:28,590 --> 00:09:37,410 | to find that what you're building is the world's best trading book. Because it's going to be important to you. It's going to be salient to the things that you |
| 60 | 00:09:37,410 --> 00:09:45,960 | are concerned about as you're developing. And it's going to have all the answers for you. Because you have found them with experience and study. It's not just |
| 61 | 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:52,410 | taking my word for it, you're going to go in you're going to see it, it's going to be much more meaningful to you than if you were to buy a book that I write or |
| 62 | 00:09:52,410 --> 00:09:59,880 | someone else writes and it has their examples in there. There's no connection to it. And you probably felt that before reading a book or |
| 63 | 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:09,420 | You're watching someone else's video, even mine, you feel this disconnect. And it's because you have not had your hands on the process. And that's what makes |
| 64 | 00:10:09,420 --> 00:10:19,290 | this stuff work. It's not just watching a video or binge watching. So getting back to the opening price, this price here is the opening at midnight, New York |
| 65 | 00:10:19,290 --> 00:10:29,550 | time. If we're bullish, we don't expect a lot of price action on the downside it can. But if it does go below it. During the London session, we're generally |
| 66 | 00:10:29,550 --> 00:10:31,080 | looking for the low of the day to form. |
| 67 | 00:10:32,340 --> 00:10:38,190 | If for whatever reason, there's very little movement below the opening price at midnight during London, |
| 68 | 00:10:39,270 --> 00:10:45,120 | and it starts to move up but doesn't really expand too far. Or doesn't move a lot in terms of pips now what is that? |
| 69 | 00:10:46,140 --> 00:10:50,010 | It's kind of like open for interpretation, what is not moving a lot, Michael. |
| 70 | 00:10:51,180 --> 00:11:04,860 | Say it moves around 30 pips, maybe 35 pips for the day, and it enters New York. Generally, it could come back down and travel below the opening price during the |
| 71 | 00:11:04,860 --> 00:11:12,540 | New York session, especially if there's high impact or medium impact news, they may use that as a guise to take it down below the opening price and run the |
| 72 | 00:11:12,540 --> 00:11:21,840 | initial low of the day. And then you have what I mentioned earlier in passing, which is a market reversal profile for intraday, and then you would catch the |
| 73 | 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:28,260 | low of the day that way, and then you would expect the range to expand on the upside, again, not requiring that |
| 74 | 00:11:29,700 --> 00:11:41,700 | close to be higher than the opening price. So the high of the day, is what we're really targeting. We're targeting that we have to have some rule based idea to |
| 75 | 00:11:41,700 --> 00:11:56,520 | have some realistic, solid sound basis, trying to find all the salient adjectives to describe what you're doing with the the high of the day. And it |
| 76 | 00:11:56,520 --> 00:12:05,160 | could be a pivot point, if you'd like to use pivot points, it could be an old high, if you like support resistance, or an old low in the same thing with |
| 77 | 00:12:05,190 --> 00:12:12,600 | support and resistance. And it may be a Fibonacci level, it may be a specific Fibonacci extension. |
| 78 | 00:12:14,730 --> 00:12:23,430 | It could be an entire week high, you know something to that effect, but you need to be aiming for something, okay. And whatever that is, it needs to be |
| 79 | 00:12:24,390 --> 00:12:31,890 | predetermined, you can't just watch price go throughout the day and say, Well, I wonder where it's gonna reach for, you need to know what it is. And average |
| 80 | 00:12:31,890 --> 00:12:40,380 | daily range on the last five days is another general rule of thumb where you could look for a target for the entire day, it does not mean that I do have |
| 81 | 00:12:40,380 --> 00:12:49,080 | tools that will allow you to get too high and low today. But you won't know how to do that. Even if I sit down and show you it takes time to practice. As you'll |
| 82 | 00:12:49,080 --> 00:13:01,350 | see in later portions of this description and teaching. It's not always as easy as open down. rally closing behind. This is what you're all expecting. |
| 83 | 00:13:01,980 --> 00:13:10,380 | Especially those that watch on my YouTube videos, you think this is how it's always going to pan out. And then the first day you see this not form. When you |
| 84 | 00:13:10,380 --> 00:13:18,390 | think it's foolish. It throws you into like a short circuit you'd like this doesn't work, it's failing. They're changing the algorithm. You know, they're |
| 85 | 00:13:18,390 --> 00:13:27,510 | going after ICT. Now they're changing it, because everybody knows how to do it. Now, that's not what's going on. You just operating in a particular day that may |
| 86 | 00:13:27,510 --> 00:13:40,170 | require consolidation, or retracement then this type of day will form. Okay. But again, the closing price is not that big of a deal. So on the buy days or when |
| 87 | 00:13:40,170 --> 00:13:53,820 | it's bullish and our biases bullish, we're focusing on the open and the high. Okay? Those two things are critical, the less forgiving is the low because you |
| 88 | 00:13:53,820 --> 00:14:02,400 | don't necessarily need to be trading at the low of the day. That's the highest form of analysis. If you're bullish, and you're buying the low of the day, or |
| 89 | 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:10,530 | very close to the low today. What is that within five pips? And is that reasonable? Is it realistic? Absolutely. Is it realistic for you to expect that |
| 90 | 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:19,080 | you'll do this in the first few times that you sit down or in the first couple months of learning it? No, because you're going to be fearful, you're gonna be |
| 91 | 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:29,520 | afraid. And you may see this opening price and it might dive down 2530 pips and it might do it quickly. And you'll be scared, you'll be like a deer in |
| 92 | 00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:36,630 | headlights, you second guess yourself and you won't trigger it, you won't put a limit order in because you want to |
| 93 | 00:14:38,130 --> 00:14:46,650 | get in at the market after it starts moving in your favor. And these are all the things that are normal for you to develop as a trader, but you have to go in and |
| 94 | 00:14:46,650 --> 00:14:57,030 | tackle these fearful situations and do it with a principle based approach. But you have to start with some kind of theory. Otherwise you're never going to |
| 95 | 00:14:57,030 --> 00:15:00,000 | understand what it is that you're fearing and how to overcome |
| 96 | 00:15:01,170 --> 00:15:11,490 | So by desensitizing yourself, by looking at the daily range watching live price, not watching trading views replay function, that's not the same. You need to |
| 97 | 00:15:11,490 --> 00:15:20,100 | watch these candles live and breathe, when they're born at the opening price, watch how they move around. And then when they expire and die on their clothes, |
| 98 | 00:15:20,220 --> 00:15:29,010 | and a new candle is born after that one, you need to know what it felt like while that candle was, you know, going through its lifecycle. And doesn't matter |
| 99 | 00:15:29,010 --> 00:15:38,850 | what timeframe, you need to see it live, that's the only way you're going to feel comfortable with trading live funds. And now I'm not saying that that |
| 100 | 00:15:38,850 --> 00:15:48,030 | should be your goal here because you're going to decide that on your own. But in a demo account setting, the only way you're going to be able to find consistency |
| 101 | 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:57,930 | in finding where to get in and where to get out and how to buy and how to hold. Working with a daily bias idea is that you have to go in with the expectation, |
| 102 | 00:15:57,930 --> 00:16:04,710 | you're going to get it wrong a lot. And every time you get something wrong, that mistake is an opportunity to learn something mostly about yourself, what you're |
| 103 | 00:16:04,710 --> 00:16:13,290 | fearful of knows things that you need to be recording your journal. When you do these exercises, every single trading session is an opportunity for you to |
| 104 | 00:16:13,290 --> 00:16:23,880 | practice, every single trading day is a lab experiment, you need to be getting in there and practicing was practicing getting it right all the time. No, you |
| 105 | 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:32,670 | need to be practicing how you engage. If you think the markets bullish, you got to go in there and attack that opening price or something below it will be down |
| 106 | 00:16:32,670 --> 00:16:43,110 | that will be bullish, it could be a quarter block, it could be an old high finding support it anything that you and your method leans heavily on as a |
| 107 | 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:47,340 | support idea, or something that will be bullish if it traded to it, |
| 108 | 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:56,430 | then hey, you know, that's what you're going to be working with, for some of you that like indicators, and it sounds some weird me saying that, but there are |
| 109 | 00:16:56,430 --> 00:17:04,230 | still some of you that like indicators. And that may be something down below this opening price that creates a buy signal for your indicator, maybe it's |
| 110 | 00:17:04,230 --> 00:17:09,360 | something you created, you know, uniquely your own study. |
| 111 | 00:17:11,100 --> 00:17:23,670 | Whatever it is, the idea is that you need to be deriving what that bias is based on whatever the high is that you're aiming for. And it's going to be rooted on |
| 112 | 00:17:23,670 --> 00:17:34,350 | something beyond that one single daily candle. And I'll talk about that next. But the close is the least of our concern. We don't care where that closing |
| 113 | 00:17:34,350 --> 00:17:45,690 | price is. Because what is the closing price that's way into late New York time. I'm not trying to trade that time of day. So what's the closing price for me? |
| 114 | 00:17:46,890 --> 00:17:48,630 | Whatever the opening price is at noon, |
| 115 | 00:17:50,250 --> 00:18:00,180 | 15 minute candle, the opening price when the 15 minute candle opens, during the noon hour in New York, there's your closing price, and do all your studies. With |
| 116 | 00:18:00,180 --> 00:18:08,160 | that mindset, the opening price at midnight, and the opening price at noon. There's your beginning in your book ends, what does price do between those |
| 117 | 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:19,920 | specific times, if you study that, you'll see that that usually is going to be the perfect encapsulation of the lines portion of the daily range. Now you may |
| 118 | 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:25,710 | get some kind of a little squiggly move little earlier, you know, during the asian session previous day, |
| 119 | 00:18:26,820 --> 00:18:36,780 | which will be the new trading day for some of you, but I look at things from a New York time. Okay, so it it's not a new day to me until we get into midnight, |
| 120 | 00:18:36,810 --> 00:18:45,090 | New York time, then it's a new day. And it makes him you know, again, arrogant and self centered as an American. But that's just how these algorithms work. |
| 121 | 00:18:45,090 --> 00:18:51,750 | They run on New York time. It you can argue all you want. But everything runs on New York time. So |
| 122 | 00:18:52,890 --> 00:19:02,730 | the idea is you have to know what the architecture is of the daily range. And it's based on these four components, the opening price most important whether |
| 123 | 00:19:02,730 --> 00:19:14,430 | you're bullish or bearish, the high when you're bullish, you're aiming for something, okay. And I'll talk about that in a minute. The targeting of the high |
| 124 | 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:24,060 | starts with an ideal area in the market where you're trying to buy, okay, some kind of a low. Now the low of the day, it's not important for you to try to get |
| 125 | 00:19:24,090 --> 00:19:30,930 | in that every single time. You've seen me do things like this in live trading and examples on this YouTube channel when I was on Twitter, but |
| 126 | 00:19:32,070 --> 00:19:38,340 | that takes a lot of experience and a lot of time and you're gonna have to grow into that and I don't ever sugarcoat it. |
| 127 | 00:19:39,390 --> 00:19:52,170 | But you don't need that the find an opportunity in the daily range bias. So usually what happens is between the opening price and the closing price, this |
| 128 | 00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:59,460 | part of the body of the candle. It's usually two o'clock in the morning, New York time to around 10 o'clock in the morning. |
| 129 | 00:20:00,299 --> 00:20:01,079 | New York time. |
| 130 | 00:20:02,100 --> 00:20:15,990 | So that eight hour period of time is usually the body of the candle. That's the the lines portion of the range. That in itself is a huge milestone. Once you |
| 131 | 00:20:15,990 --> 00:20:19,290 | study that and see it for what it is, it's the truth, |
| 132 | 00:20:20,370 --> 00:20:26,730 | you won't be afraid of getting into another trade opportunity. If you miss your ideal entry, if you understand that |
| 133 | 00:20:27,870 --> 00:20:36,480 | you also will grow to welcome new york session trading. Because New York session trading usually is somewhere above that opening price unless it goes down and |
| 134 | 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:44,070 | dives below the opening price and runs the initial low of the day, like I mentioned earlier. And that doesn't happen a lot. And even if that does happen, |
| 135 | 00:20:44,340 --> 00:20:45,570 | and you say you get stopped out. |
| 136 | 00:20:46,650 --> 00:20:57,990 | If your bias is still bullish, you got to anticipate that as potentially you got stopped out, you did something wrong, don't beat yourself up about it, and go in |
| 137 | 00:20:57,990 --> 00:21:08,790 | and look for an opportunity at that opening price. or close to it. Because New York session will will do that. If everything's remaining bullish, it will still |
| 138 | 00:21:08,790 --> 00:21:20,550 | do that. And then you can ride that expansion and in New York session into that 10 o'clock to noon hour, where we close, okay, your candles on your platforms |
| 139 | 00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:21,780 | and on your brokerage |
| 140 | 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:31,740 | accounts, they're not going to paint the daily range like this with these time parameters. That's why you have to think about things a little differently. And |
| 141 | 00:21:31,740 --> 00:21:36,660 | you have to put your daily dividers in for your perception of the daily range, that means |
| 142 | 00:21:37,950 --> 00:21:45,930 | midnight to noon, midnight to noon, midnight to noon, if you do that on an hourly chart in a 15 minute timeframe. study that go back over the last couple |
| 143 | 00:21:45,930 --> 00:21:54,690 | months of anyone in the parish that you'd like to trade, you're going to see something that is a lot more clearer than if you just click the daily dividers |
| 144 | 00:21:54,720 --> 00:22:05,010 | or separation tab that does the session dividers. I know some of you are still using mt four. I've transitioned to trading view. But if you put the session |
| 145 | 00:22:05,190 --> 00:22:15,060 | separator in there, they're separated separation isn't how I see the daily range. So anytime I'm referring to my students, that daily range, showing that |
| 146 | 00:22:15,060 --> 00:22:26,040 | midnight to noon, midnight to noon, okay, so that is important. So if you get beyond this, in the other studies that I've done on this YouTube channel, you'll |
| 147 | 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:31,230 | get more insights about everything that I haven't said here, but has been taught in other lessons. |
| 148 | 00:22:33,060 --> 00:22:41,220 | So what are we looking for if we're bullish? And we're aiming for this high? Okay, what high price are we looking for? It's going to be a draw on liquidity. |
| 149 | 00:22:41,610 --> 00:22:46,530 | Now, what is that? Okay, it is the most important thing in trading. |
| 150 | 00:22:47,850 --> 00:23:00,990 | Why should a market go up? Or why should a market go down? It's going to be reaching for something. Okay. And that something is liquidity. liquidity is just |
| 151 | 00:23:01,230 --> 00:23:13,470 | a term that's used to understand orders that are in the marketplace that are waiting to be paired up with a Counterparty. And what do I mean by that? |
| 152 | 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:25,020 | If the market is likely to go higher, and that means our bias would be underlying the bullish that bullish bias suggest to us as a analyst that we |
| 153 | 00:23:25,020 --> 00:23:29,310 | think the daily range is going to expand over the hours of outlined in this teaching. |
| 154 | 00:23:31,020 --> 00:23:43,170 | If it rallies up to an old high and just above it, what would be resting above that old high by stops? Why would an old high have biceps above it, because |
| 155 | 00:23:43,170 --> 00:23:53,700 | there's traders that are short, from that old price high. And their orders to protect that short are by stops. So if the market is down here and opens below |
| 156 | 00:23:53,700 --> 00:24:01,380 | that old high somewhere back here, and I'm speaking hypothetically, but you if you've been following this channel for any length of time, you pretty much know |
| 157 | 00:24:01,380 --> 00:24:10,770 | what I'm referring to, it's going to be running for an old high, it might be old equal highs, relative equal highs, you know, or one singular swing high. And |
| 158 | 00:24:10,770 --> 00:24:21,180 | above that is going to be by side liquidity or buy stops. So the liquidity that is being attacked is by side liquidity. So that's the draw on price, it's going |
| 159 | 00:24:21,180 --> 00:24:30,540 | to go up there because it needs to go there. It needs to go to a level where there's going to be a exchange. |
| 160 | 00:24:32,250 --> 00:24:42,090 | Anyone that's buying down here, they have to have a way of getting out of it. So what do they have to do to gather a long position, they have to sell it. So if |
| 161 | 00:24:42,090 --> 00:24:54,390 | they bought it, let's say perfect example, we bought below the opening price at some really fancy round number and we held all day long and it ran above an old |
| 162 | 00:24:54,390 --> 00:24:54,810 | high. |
| 163 | 00:24:56,130 --> 00:25:00,000 | Those by side liquidity orders are going to be waiting |
| 164 | 00:25:00,810 --> 00:25:09,930 | To be chipped as a market order, if the market trades there, those buy stocks become market orders to buy at the marketplace, which is perfect for the Smart |
| 165 | 00:25:09,930 --> 00:25:20,640 | Money traders that are long down here. They're looking to sell it. So they're pairing it with a pool of liquidity of traders have an interest in buying at a |
| 166 | 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:30,660 | higher price. Why? Because they've been short. And they want to be out if it goes above their specific price level. And everyone knows trailing stop losses |
| 167 | 00:25:30,900 --> 00:25:39,210 | are cancer, all retail traders because they don't know how to effectively manage their position. So there's always going to be a plethora of buy stops above |
| 168 | 00:25:39,510 --> 00:25:50,940 | previous day's highs, or below previous day's lows in the form of sell side liquidity. So as a short term day trader, you can capitalize on that, and use it |
| 169 | 00:25:50,940 --> 00:25:59,790 | as your high or where you think the markets gonna go. Now, let's get back to this point about the clothes. Just like we don't care about where the closing |
| 170 | 00:25:59,790 --> 00:26:08,730 | price is. We're not trying to forecast the closing price. Exactly. At the opening price at noon, New York time, that's not what we're trying to do. I have |
| 171 | 00:26:08,730 --> 00:26:18,270 | things I can do that with. But that's not the scope of this teaching. And it's certainly not something I'm laying before you as a personal challenge. What |
| 172 | 00:26:18,270 --> 00:26:28,800 | you're trying to do is find something that it's going to target. And here's the rub, it might go beyond your target. And that's a lesson in itself. You're gonna |
| 173 | 00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:38,820 | learn a whole lot about yourself. If you get into a trade, and you get out with a reasonable or respectable, Pip haul Say, say take 100 pips out of the day. |
| 174 | 00:26:39,420 --> 00:26:43,380 | It's not likely but let's say you did take 100 pips out of the day. |
| 175 | 00:26:44,550 --> 00:26:53,460 | But it moves 180 pips? Are you gonna be mad? Sure, you really gonna be upset? You can say no, I'll be happy to 200 pips, No, you won't. Okay, I can tell you, |
| 176 | 00:26:53,520 --> 00:27:01,770 | I don't feel that way. And I've been doing this a long time. So you're never right in this industry, you're never going to be the perfect trader, it's never |
| 177 | 00:27:01,770 --> 00:27:09,600 | going to happen. So that's why you have to determine in static terms, what the highest that you're aiming for. And from where you're entering and what you're |
| 178 | 00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:20,160 | aiming for. That's your trade, you're not trying to fool yourself, for your friends on social media, that you're going to be able to do the whole entire |
| 179 | 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:31,620 | range from low to high, you're not going to, okay, so be happy and content with what you've seen as possible. Take the profit, move to the sidelines and wait |
| 180 | 00:27:31,620 --> 00:27:42,090 | for another opportunity. At another day, don't go back in and milk, the daily bias because you have extra time. So after your trades been done, that's always |
| 181 | 00:27:43,170 --> 00:27:44,910 | that's always a bad scenario. |
| 182 | 00:27:46,260 --> 00:27:55,230 | The only time that is considered is if you took a trade in London, and you got either stopped out or |
| 183 | 00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:58,020 | you didn't get a |
| 184 | 00:27:59,100 --> 00:28:08,520 | fill. So you can go back in one more time. Okay, that that New York, that's the only time I look at you as a second opportunity. Unless I'm going in there, you |
| 185 | 00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:16,380 | know, going crazy with a lot of scalping. And that's just even though I can do it very well, I don't like to do it because it's demands too much of my focus. |
| 186 | 00:28:16,860 --> 00:28:24,420 | And I could do other things to do just as much as that. But the draw of liquidity is where the markets likely to go. So that's what you're aiming for. |
| 187 | 00:28:24,420 --> 00:28:32,490 | In this case, when we're bullish, that's the high. That's that price that we're aiming for. So we're, we're using the draw on liquidity that is an old high. Now |
| 188 | 00:28:32,490 --> 00:28:41,790 | that old high might be in the form of like I said, an old low that we traded through. And now it may come back up to that as an upside objective. I don't |
| 189 | 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:50,490 | personally like to look at trades like that, because everybody thinks that way in retail, it's support resistance and support broken turns resistance. And |
| 190 | 00:28:50,490 --> 00:29:01,230 | sometimes, but not all the time. But I have tools that will do a higher range of probability than just simply looking at the classic support resistance because |
| 191 | 00:29:01,230 --> 00:29:09,060 | you go right back to the same question I've always posed, what is the support? And what is the resistance because all of us are going to have a different |
| 192 | 00:29:09,060 --> 00:29:18,960 | interpretation of what that is. But the way I break down the market and the specific ranges, and there's things that I teach that are PD arrays, they're |
| 193 | 00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:29,580 | very specific, and it's not left for interpretation. It's very specific things. So that high, just think of it as relative equal highs, okay, and if that's what |
| 194 | 00:29:29,580 --> 00:29:38,670 | you're framing, on a 15 minute chart, or an hourly chart, or four hour chart for your target for the high, that's your draw on liquidity. |
| 195 | 00:29:40,590 --> 00:29:46,800 | And then once you understand that, then you're gonna be utilizing institutional order flow. And we'll talk a little bit about that in our next slide. |
| 196 | 00:29:48,540 --> 00:29:58,080 | So the draw on liquidity, this is the euro dollar, and I apologize. This took a look at the clock and I went a little bit beyond what I wanted to say, but |
| 197 | 00:29:59,190 --> 00:29:59,970 | I can't help |
| 198 | 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:00,540 | Myself, |
| 199 | 00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:12,180 | I want to be, I want to present something that's valuable to you. And I'm also predicting what questions might arise. And I don't have a script outside of what |
| 200 | 00:30:12,180 --> 00:30:14,040 | I have in front of me. So, |
| 201 | 00:30:15,150 --> 00:30:24,300 | again, you didn't pay for this. But you should have, because it's something that you're not going to learn elsewhere, unless it's someone that's learned from me, |
| 202 | 00:30:24,300 --> 00:30:35,040 | and they're just trying to make a YouTube channel and look smart. But the idea of the drawing liquidity is rooted on a higher timeframe chart. And one of the |
| 203 | 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:47,550 | best ways you can do that is use a weekly chart. Now, the weekly chart, in this case here, the Euro, we've gone from trading up here in the highs of 2018, all |
| 204 | 00:30:47,550 --> 00:31:00,300 | the way down to the march time period or so of this year in 2020. And we started the rally up from there, the range that it was working within is this high to |
| 205 | 00:31:00,300 --> 00:31:09,510 | this low. Now, right away, you know, you may not have seen anything out here that would be bullish. And we're not going to get into that. When you look at a |
| 206 | 00:31:09,510 --> 00:31:18,930 | weekly chart, the only thing you need to be worrying about is, is the next candle. Like say you're looking at it on a Saturday. And on Saturday, when the |
| 207 | 00:31:18,930 --> 00:31:28,020 | markets are not trading, you want to look at your weekly chart and say, Okay, what is the likelihood of the next candle on the weekly chart, expanding higher, |
| 208 | 00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:38,880 | or expanding lower? That's the first step, folks, that's all you need to worry about initially. If you can't determine what the next weekly candle is gonna |
| 209 | 00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:48,510 | reach for, then you have to sit on your hands and wait until Monday starts trading. And then usually wait until Monday is done. What is it done on Monday |
| 210 | 00:31:48,810 --> 00:31:52,440 | hasn't given you any more insight or clues as to which trying to reach for |
| 211 | 00:31:54,000 --> 00:32:03,480 | if the weekly range is going to be an expansion on the upside, I'm willing to let Monday go and in what you know, Mondays in my trading, have had sometimes |
| 212 | 00:32:03,690 --> 00:32:14,640 | really big blast off days, and I missed a big portion of the weekly range. I don't care. I'm not beating myself up because I know what I do repeats. And |
| 213 | 00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:24,510 | you'll learn that too. But you won't feel that comfortable. If you start by listening to the roles I gave you and you see a big Monday, you're like, oh, |
| 214 | 00:32:25,290 --> 00:32:36,600 | what did I see t now? He missed that move? Yeah, I probably did. But I'm also finding two or three more really good setups, and intra week that work within |
| 215 | 00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:45,510 | that same idea of the weekly range expanding on the upside or in the converse sense. When it's bearish, I could be looking for something that's going lower in |
| 216 | 00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:56,910 | a week, and not requiring participation on a Monday. Okay. So what we're looking at here is a order block right here. Now I identified the high and the low so |
| 217 | 00:32:56,910 --> 00:32:59,160 | that we can clearly see it. And |
| 218 | 00:33:00,450 --> 00:33:09,780 | the high of the order block in the load or block that is the full range, or what we're gonna be using as the draw on liquidity. So before the weekly range |
| 219 | 00:33:09,780 --> 00:33:12,450 | started, and we're looking at |
| 220 | 00:33:13,890 --> 00:33:14,970 | December |
| 221 | 00:33:16,950 --> 00:33:21,210 | 18, is Friday at 18 2020. |
| 222 | 00:33:22,230 --> 00:33:31,560 | So at the time of this recording, we only have tomorrow for the end of the week. And then there's no more trading, we stopped trading for the week. So we don't |
| 223 | 00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:43,680 | know what this weekly range is going to do with 100% assurity. We don't know that. So the probabilities are, is it likely to go higher or lower. And the fact |
| 224 | 00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:46,230 | that we have traded from this consolidation, |
| 225 | 00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:58,590 | we started to move out of it. And look how many weeks we've had, where it's been one big range, another big range, a small little indecisive range last week. And |
| 226 | 00:33:58,590 --> 00:34:00,150 | then we have a nice, |
| 227 | 00:34:01,260 --> 00:34:06,570 | big expansion on the weekly range here as it trades right up into that bearish order block. |
| 228 | 00:34:07,620 --> 00:34:16,710 | So every single one of these weeks had opportunity, even last week with the decisiveness that the weekly range showed that here's the wonderful thing. And |
| 229 | 00:34:16,710 --> 00:34:18,210 | this is where you write things down. |
| 230 | 00:34:19,350 --> 00:34:28,560 | Every time we move from consolidation and start to have an expansion phase, you need to start considering this factor right here. Where is the draw on |
| 231 | 00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:39,510 | liquidity. And if you get caught up in a week that is indecisive. Don't think that it's topping it doesn't mean that it's topping, it just means that we're in |
| 232 | 00:34:39,510 --> 00:34:48,630 | another smaller period of consolidation. So what's being shown here on the weekly chart is occurring here on the four hour and the one hour of this |
| 233 | 00:34:48,630 --> 00:34:59,670 | individual weekly range right there. But when this happens, and we're bullish, if we have an indecisive candle or if we have a down candle then we have a |
| 234 | 00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:07,440 | creased probability that we're going to have a large range expansion on the upside if we are still on the line we bullish and the market trades right up |
| 235 | 00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:14,790 | into that bearish order block right there. Okay. So with these levels in, we're going to look at a |
| 236 | 00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:25,260 | daily chart. And we can start seeing, this is the new trading session. And this is Thursdays trading Wednesday, |
| 237 | 00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:38,730 | Tuesday, and Monday. So we had a week that had relatively every single day, it was a buying opportunity. But not every single day had a obvious low risk pi. |
| 238 | 00:35:39,330 --> 00:35:51,390 | But the bias was what bullish each day doesn't mean bullish daily bias means everyday trading, it doesn't mean a bullish bias going in every day, isn't every |
| 239 | 00:35:51,390 --> 00:36:01,320 | day opportunity to be a buyer or that you're plunging in a dozen, that's why you are losing. Because you're thinking that everything has to be |
| 240 | 00:36:03,150 --> 00:36:13,440 | cast in stone. And it's not, it's not. And that's the hardest thing for me to beat through the barrier of a new trader in development is that they think they |
| 241 | 00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:22,350 | have to be able to know how to do this every single day. And there are, and this is probably gonna be shocking to somebody, I don't know, sometimes I have to |
| 242 | 00:36:22,350 --> 00:36:33,270 | wait. And it may require me waiting through an entire one session. But then I can see what it's likely to do for the New York session. Or I may see something |
| 243 | 00:36:33,270 --> 00:36:41,820 | in London go in lose, and think I got to figure it out in New York and then lose again. And then I have to stop because I have misread it. And I am wrong. I |
| 244 | 00:36:41,820 --> 00:36:51,450 | don't want to go in there and throw good money after bad just to know that I'm really, really wrong. So that's the reason why we have to have rules. Okay, so |
| 245 | 00:36:51,450 --> 00:37:00,180 | if the rules aren't in place, and we don't know what they are, then you should not be surprised when the results are lackluster or less than stellar. So |
| 246 | 00:37:01,380 --> 00:37:10,680 | we're looking only for the anticipation of the ranges to expand until we get to that red line. Okay, now, the red line is just a target doesn't mean it's going |
| 247 | 00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:20,850 | to go there and reverse it can. And this is what sometimes people misinterpret they, oh, here, it comes to plan B, it's not Plan B, that wouldn't be my trade, |
| 248 | 00:37:20,850 --> 00:37:29,250 | I would never look at that and sell short, I would look at that as I run up into that. And once it gets there, then I'm done. And I move to the sidelines. But |
| 249 | 00:37:29,250 --> 00:37:36,420 | some students of mine may see that say, Okay, well, I see that as an opportunity. And I could sell short that and maybe get 20 pips out of that as a |
| 250 | 00:37:36,420 --> 00:37:38,550 | short, because they can get a reaction there. |
| 251 | 00:37:39,630 --> 00:37:48,180 | That's just not my cup of tea, but it might be a student of mine. So I have to be very careful how I say it, because I don't want to say something that may |
| 252 | 00:37:48,180 --> 00:37:59,700 | discourage something that they have been discovering in their own studies, that is framing and building their own unique trading model. So I have to be very |
| 253 | 00:37:59,700 --> 00:38:09,570 | responsible in the way I speak not because I don't want to be wrong, not because I'm trying to avoid, you know, looking less smart, because I'm gonna be honest |
| 254 | 00:38:09,570 --> 00:38:20,070 | with you, I'm not a mental giant. I'm just the average guy that's been blessed by all this stuff. And I didn't deserve it. So when I'm teaching you, I'm |
| 255 | 00:38:20,070 --> 00:38:32,790 | teaching you the most practical way of doing it. And I'm being honest with you. So if I tell you that this order block would be a draw on liquidity, it's |
| 256 | 00:38:32,820 --> 00:38:41,790 | because it's an area where it needs to potentially trade back up into because I don't believe in support resistance in the classical sense. But that up close |
| 257 | 00:38:41,790 --> 00:38:45,750 | candle in that old consolidation back back on that weekly chart, |
| 258 | 00:38:47,250 --> 00:38:58,620 | is enough for me to use as a target. Now, it might trade even through that and go to 125. Okay, that doesn't mean anything to me. It just means that what's the |
| 259 | 00:38:58,620 --> 00:39:07,380 | next likely upside objective? And I'm going to aim for that. Is there enough range from where I could potentially try to enter it, and that high that I'm |
| 260 | 00:39:07,380 --> 00:39:09,390 | aiming for? Now, |
| 261 | 00:39:10,740 --> 00:39:19,890 | for some of you, you may have looked at a lower level objective than what I outline on that weekly chart. It may have been just a static number of pips |
| 262 | 00:39:20,130 --> 00:39:32,070 | 30 4050 pips? Is there anything wrong with that? If you're classifying that as your high? No, it could be whatever your daily range, ATR is, okay, on a five |
| 263 | 00:39:32,070 --> 00:39:37,710 | day basis, whatever the average daily range for the last five days is in, you project that up as your |
| 264 | 00:39:38,910 --> 00:39:49,920 | forecasted high the day and you get out there then that's it. That's your trade. If it keeps going up. 150 pips more, you have to let go of that. So again, bias |
| 265 | 00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:54,780 | is not perfect daily range from low to high and you got in on it. |
| 266 | 00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:59,760 | There's for some reason, the idea of bias |
| 267 | 00:40:00,179 --> 00:40:10,139 | Okay, and I think it's mainly attributed to the fact that they seen me do many examples of getting into low getting into high, riding out eating, adding into |
| 268 | 00:40:10,169 --> 00:40:19,229 | the daily range throughout the day and small little one minute charts and such. That's mastery. That's something that you can't sit down in front of a chart and |
| 269 | 00:40:19,229 --> 00:40:23,909 | watch it, you know, a video of mine or even series. And just think that you can do that. And |
| 270 | 00:40:25,050 --> 00:40:37,680 | it happens, it doesn't work that way. It took me it took me a long, long time to be able to do that. And I can't do it every single day. There's days that you |
| 271 | 00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:44,310 | just can't do it. And we're about to see some of that price action. But you want to be looking for where the markets going to draw to, because that's the most |
| 272 | 00:40:44,310 --> 00:40:49,290 | important thing. That's the basis of why the markets reaching for it, the markets move |
| 273 | 00:40:50,490 --> 00:41:04,080 | to go to liquidity, or it goes to an area to rebalance. So there is an imbalance or an inefficiency in price action. That will go to those two primary drivers |
| 274 | 00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:15,870 | for price movement. The third is a central bank repricing, and then you have nothing that usually can forecast that it just, it's there and you got crushed. |
| 275 | 00:41:16,170 --> 00:41:16,650 | Okay. |
| 276 | 00:41:17,970 --> 00:41:28,830 | That's the risk. Every single time you trade these markets, you are risking a unannounced, something happens in the world, somebody dies, there's a war that |
| 277 | 00:41:28,830 --> 00:41:40,560 | breaks out something to that effect, where it's an act of God or something unexpected happens, and then the central bank prices in that move or that event. |
| 278 | 00:41:40,830 --> 00:41:49,200 | And they do so in stunning fashion. Sometimes it could be a really muted movement, like it could be a half a penny move, which is 50 pips, or it could be |
| 279 | 00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:59,190 | several pennies move, which could be 500, to 1000 pips, and look at the euro and swissy when it was de pegged, and you'll see exactly what I'm referring to. |
| 280 | 00:41:59,550 --> 00:42:05,700 | That's like a very, very rare occurrence. But hey, you got to be realistic, you know, |
| 281 | 00:42:07,170 --> 00:42:09,870 | it could have happened to you if you were in those markets, and you're crushed. |
| 282 | 00:42:10,980 --> 00:42:17,760 | And that is something that you need to be mindful of, you know, just because you think you're trading on these intraday charts and you're day trading, you think |
| 283 | 00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:27,060 | you're hop skipping through the the risk now, soon as you put in a trade and you're in their life funds, you are at risk of having much more than you're |
| 284 | 00:42:27,060 --> 00:42:29,400 | comfortable with losing taken from your account. |
| 285 | 00:42:30,450 --> 00:42:38,850 | And I don't want to sugarcoat anything when I'm talking to you about that. That's why I tell you, you can't rush this. You can't think I've been doing it |
| 286 | 00:42:38,850 --> 00:42:41,460 | for the last five days. So I'm ready for life on trading. |
| 287 | 00:42:43,140 --> 00:42:49,800 | Works, because as soon as you get in here to live trading, it's gonna be Oh, no, this doesn't work. So it's not that it doesn't work. It's just you're trying to |
| 288 | 00:42:49,800 --> 00:43:00,300 | do it too frequently, you're forcing it and you're not following the rules. So the daily chart each day had a range expansion. And again, we're not trying to |
| 289 | 00:43:00,330 --> 00:43:09,060 | forecast where the closing prices, we're just looking for that expansion in one direction over another where it's one sidedness. That's what we're focusing on. |
| 290 | 00:43:09,270 --> 00:43:13,440 | That, to me is bias. It's not, where does the clothes. |
| 291 | 00:43:15,090 --> 00:43:25,200 | Finish the day, in relative terms to the opening price. That's that to me, I could care less about that. Because you can make a lot of pips in environments |
| 292 | 00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:32,430 | where even in this kind of mess here, in these indecisive candles here, there's opportunities in here to be a buyer. |
| 293 | 00:43:34,170 --> 00:43:38,370 | And you can find trades in that. It's not always just Down, Down down down. |
| 294 | 00:43:39,930 --> 00:43:44,280 | This in these days here, you could still have a bullish bias and get scalps. |
| 295 | 00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:52,620 | It doesn't for a new student or new trader that's trying to learn how to do this. When you see these down moves like that, it doesn't feel like that's |
| 296 | 00:43:52,620 --> 00:44:04,050 | possible, like who's buying that a high frequency trader, or a scalper or an intraday trader, they don't have to be in going short. And just because the |
| 297 | 00:44:04,050 --> 00:44:15,300 | daily range closes lower than the opening doesn't, in any way, force the idea that that's the only way to make money. It just means that it provides you as |
| 298 | 00:44:15,300 --> 00:44:25,530 | the analyst and potential trader to have a framework to work within that data, that daily range, how are you going to interpret what the price actions doing on |
| 299 | 00:44:25,530 --> 00:44:34,140 | your chart? How do you see that? Is there opportunity? Or is there a lack of opportunity? That's all that's all trading is. And each of us gonna have a |
| 300 | 00:44:34,140 --> 00:44:44,460 | different way of framing that where it constitutes a, in our opinion, a low risk, high probability trade. Now, if we were to compare notes, and then had the |
| 301 | 00:44:44,460 --> 00:44:49,200 | benefit of hindsight, everyone could play armchair quarterback and say, yeah, that wasn't a smart idea. |
| 302 | 00:44:50,460 --> 00:44:59,160 | That's why you don't want to compare your notes because you're never going to get the feedback that you're hoping to get, or even want because someone's |
| 303 | 00:44:59,160 --> 00:44:59,910 | always going to tell you |
| 304 | 00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:08,940 | You did something wrong, you know, you did something wrong. If you did it wrong, you don't need someone else to tell you that. So all these things have to be |
| 305 | 00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:18,420 | part of your your daily bias, which is a routine, you do certain things and you don't do certain things. You don't talk about your ideas, you don't talk about |
| 306 | 00:45:18,420 --> 00:45:24,870 | what you did. And that's the worst thing you can do, especially if they have a winning trade. Everybody wants to go to social media, everybody wants to go to |
| 307 | 00:45:24,870 --> 00:45:28,860 | these chat rooms, these forums. Okay, these Twitter's and |
| 308 | 00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:39,660 | Instagrams and I want to show what they did, right. And I would be more interested in seeing what you learned by doing it wrong. And you don't see that. |
| 309 | 00:45:40,170 --> 00:45:51,990 | And that's how real traders develop. A real teacher will encourage the student to delve into why they keep making the mistakes, but not beating themselves up |
| 310 | 00:45:51,990 --> 00:45:58,680 | about it. So you have to blend that in, keep that in there. Because for some of you that are shaking his head, see you're not teaching bias, you're talking |
| 311 | 00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:10,440 | about something else, you're talking about. Psychology, you know, I want to talk about bias, that is a critical part. Because what you think is a bias is going |
| 312 | 00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:21,150 | to have a huge impact. If you're right and wrong. When using that said bias, and you need to understand that just simply because you think it's going to go up |
| 313 | 00:46:21,150 --> 00:46:29,520 | doesn't mean it's going to go up. Or if you think it's going to go down, it might go down, but it might not go to the target you're reaching for. And you |
| 314 | 00:46:29,520 --> 00:46:37,950 | hold on for too long. And it reverses on you. how's that gonna make you feel? Does it mean abandon the model? Does it mean abandon the ideas that you use to |
| 315 | 00:46:37,950 --> 00:46:45,390 | get in that trade? You're gonna feel like doing that. And you're gonna be going into these chat rooms and forums and looking at who has a course here who has |
| 316 | 00:46:45,390 --> 00:46:48,720 | this, who's trading good right now I need to follow them. |
| 317 | 00:46:50,850 --> 00:46:54,930 | And it's all gonna be hinged on this topic right here, bias. |
| 318 | 00:46:56,460 --> 00:46:58,200 | I have a bias every single day |
| 319 | 00:46:59,700 --> 00:47:10,710 | does not mean my bias pans out to script. It just means the days of the week. I think that that bias, maybe unfolding. For instance, I'll give an example. |
| 320 | 00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:20,550 | I've been bullish on euro 10s of 1000s. People know that I have been bullish on euro. And it's trading at levels that I was pointing to before the fact |
| 321 | 00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:33,600 | every single day doesn't mean ongoing in their buying during London trying to capture the low the day, I have to use the economic calendar. And I'm framing my |
| 322 | 00:47:33,750 --> 00:47:41,400 | projected bias that I've already arrived that on the weekend. So I'm looking at things on Saturday, or if I do my analysis on Friday, |
| 323 | 00:47:42,780 --> 00:47:55,710 | whatever it is, I've arrived at for bias. That is what I'm looking at every single day of the coming week. So it's a pre determined daily bias. But it's a |
| 324 | 00:47:56,640 --> 00:48:05,430 | soft analysis concept. In words, I'm not going in there forcing that I have to go in and see, does the market support that? And does it keep giving me clues, |
| 325 | 00:48:05,430 --> 00:48:13,260 | which is what we're gonna talk about next. But institutional order flow, you need to have some things in your favor, not just simply because you have a gut |
| 326 | 00:48:13,260 --> 00:48:20,850 | feeling, it's going to go up. So therefore every single day in London, I'm going to try to buy the low the day, no, I'm looking for days that have a high impact |
| 327 | 00:48:21,090 --> 00:48:32,730 | or medium impact news event at a specific time of day, whether it be London or New York, at a specific level, in a currency that lines up |
| 328 | 00:48:33,990 --> 00:48:41,100 | with something I've either pointed to, with my students or I have thought about in |
| 329 | 00:48:42,180 --> 00:48:51,390 | the trading that took place on Monday, because maybe I have, even though I have a bias. It may require Monday's trading for me to feel confident to go in your |
| 330 | 00:48:51,390 --> 00:48:54,030 | trading on Tuesday and Wednesday, or maybe even a Thursday. |
| 331 | 00:48:55,500 --> 00:49:07,320 | So let's go into the hourly chart. And you can see this is the hourly chart for this particular trading week for euro. And you can see a head of FOMC which was |
| 332 | 00:49:07,350 --> 00:49:09,570 | occurring on 2pm here |
| 333 | 00:49:11,160 --> 00:49:14,850 | on Wednesday. And prior to that we had consolidation, you see that |
| 334 | 00:49:16,830 --> 00:49:27,840 | consolidation, which was that part of that larger daily consolidation phase, so it wasn't really trying to do anything yet. But this level up here was still in |
| 335 | 00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:36,540 | play. That's what we would be looking for, for what to draw on liquidity, which is what this high of the day that we're aiming for, which is what we're trying |
| 336 | 00:49:36,540 --> 00:49:46,890 | to get to after buying below the opening price or very close to it. You see how we're starting to flesh out bias. Now again, every single day, here's Monday's |
| 337 | 00:49:46,890 --> 00:49:59,850 | trading. indecisive. Okay, here's midnight, New York time. So the opening price is down here. It doesn't really drop down until there which is later in the day. |
| 338 | 00:50:01,079 --> 00:50:09,539 | And it goes up a little bit and consolidates, and it goes one more time drops. Now in here we have the opening price, it does drop below that, and it drops |
| 339 | 00:50:09,539 --> 00:50:20,639 | below a short term low here. And that right there might be something to look at with a closer eye with in terms of the dollar index, is there something here |
| 340 | 00:50:20,639 --> 00:50:25,949 | that shows there's a reason to be anticipating this as a buy? I'll leave that for your study. |
| 341 | 00:50:27,570 --> 00:50:34,890 | But then the market goes in consolidation again. And then the next day, on the day of FOMC, we have the opening price, it drops down initially and it rallies |
| 342 | 00:50:34,890 --> 00:50:47,550 | big. See that. But then what happens as we get closer and closer to the FOMC, when FOMC comes out, they use that as a catalyst to drive down below Southside |
| 343 | 00:50:47,550 --> 00:50:50,580 | liquidity. But they leave these here. |
| 344 | 00:50:51,780 --> 00:50:57,120 | Okay, you see that not every relative equal low is ripe for the taking. |
| 345 | 00:50:58,170 --> 00:51:07,140 | So it's important to understand that just simply because you see these relative equal lows, and a lot of folks are really warming up to that idea. And they're |
| 346 | 00:51:07,140 --> 00:51:16,650 | making courses now around it. But this isn't always the reason you have to have a narrative. And narrative is, we've already shown a willingness to go higher. |
| 347 | 00:51:17,430 --> 00:51:26,160 | And this rundown here is just to upset anyone that's already long, so they don't get the chance to participate in the upside after FOMC comes out. So when you |
| 348 | 00:51:26,160 --> 00:51:37,860 | see this move down here, as a developing student, or a neophyte trader, you'll be looking at that and be afraid. And you'll cancel many times or abandon your |
| 349 | 00:51:37,860 --> 00:51:50,820 | bias. I don't and my students don't, we don't do that. We, we anticipate this as likely manipulation. The narrative is the markets consolidating, they have a |
| 350 | 00:51:50,820 --> 00:52:00,000 | willingness to go higher. But they're coming back down to knock out individuals that were already a participant buying in here. And they they are on the market |
| 351 | 00:52:00,030 --> 00:52:08,280 | correct side now, but they want to knock them out. That's why the algorithm does that. Okay, this is not a whole bunch of people selling. |
| 352 | 00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:20,220 | It's not a whole group of buyers no longer interested in buying. So therefore, then the market drops down. This is all engineered. That's the part that gets |
| 353 | 00:52:20,220 --> 00:52:28,620 | under people's skin. Because they don't like the sound of that they like to trust, they're buying and selling pressure ideas and buying it's supply and |
| 354 | 00:52:28,620 --> 00:52:38,670 | demand factors. The forex is not based on that. It's all 100% controlled. And I know somebody's hearing that and they're saying, Oh, this guy sold it, I'm gonna |
| 355 | 00:52:38,670 --> 00:52:46,710 | turn the video off Good day doesn't change anything, it's still true. And you don't have to believe it. But I'm challenging you to go in and look at the |
| 356 | 00:52:46,710 --> 00:52:55,350 | things I teach. And you'll come away really quickly, saying, Yeah, there's there's absolutely no way that this isn't controlled, and it's engineered. So |
| 357 | 00:52:55,350 --> 00:53:03,990 | when they take the liquidity out, and those traders that are now long, get knocked out, they're not going to want to go back in, when it starts to go up, |
| 358 | 00:53:03,990 --> 00:53:15,300 | you're gonna be afraid. Why? Because they refer back to that bias that they had, has caused a painful event they got stopped down. So like a deer in headlights, |
| 359 | 00:53:15,540 --> 00:53:23,970 | they're going to watch that Mack truck come right at them. And if you've ever traded with live funds, you know exactly what I'm talking about. You have had |
| 360 | 00:53:23,970 --> 00:53:34,140 | this happen to you, maybe not on FOMC. But other instances where you got stopped down. And you're afraid to get back in even though you have an idea that the |
| 361 | 00:53:34,140 --> 00:53:48,150 | market might want to go up or go lower. Once you get stopped out. How are you in terms of trusting your initial analysis, because that's a sign of maturity. It |
| 362 | 00:53:48,150 --> 00:53:56,610 | doesn't mean that you're a gambler, and you're trying to force a trade. This is something that we anticipate knowing the things that I teach. So when we see |
| 363 | 00:53:56,610 --> 00:54:06,450 | this, we knew the economic calendar last week, the FOMC was coming. And we know that FOMC generally causes an upset in the marketplace. It's many times like a |
| 364 | 00:54:06,450 --> 00:54:18,630 | non farm payroll. So when non farm payroll Fridays come, we anticipate some wonky price action. But it's beneficial to know what it is because many times it |
| 365 | 00:54:18,630 --> 00:54:29,430 | sets the stage for the opposite direction of what we see on non farm payroll. That's why daily bias is really not important on that day. But I like it to use |
| 366 | 00:54:29,430 --> 00:54:32,970 | it as kind of like a Judas swing for the month. So |
| 367 | 00:54:34,200 --> 00:54:42,660 | while we don't generally like to trade during or ahead of FOMC we get the information that it provides us and trading down here. It went to a level and |
| 368 | 00:54:42,660 --> 00:54:52,860 | into an area where we have already mapped out and I know that sounds like I'm dangling a carrot, okay, but I'd like to do this to reward the people that are |
| 369 | 00:54:53,100 --> 00:55:00,000 | under my wing that are studying, okay in the mentorship. They know what that did. Okay. If you |
| 370 | 00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:09,360 | Can't be a part of mentorship. It's not something to feel bad about. All I'm saying is, it's an encouragement for them, just like I'm encouraging all of you |
| 371 | 00:55:09,360 --> 00:55:12,660 | that are not ever going to be in the mentorship, this lessons for you. |
| 372 | 00:55:13,710 --> 00:55:24,000 | This stuff is for you, I'm doing it for free. I'm giving you my time. So you can't be upset when I'm also here, giving my private group a little nudge and |
| 373 | 00:55:24,000 --> 00:55:33,030 | saying See, the things that I talked about here are not going to be the same depth of what I teach in mentorship. But it doesn't mean that things that I'm |
| 374 | 00:55:33,030 --> 00:55:42,150 | teaching here are any less valuable, because they are, but you're not entitled to have what they have, because they paid the price to get there. But you're not |
| 375 | 00:55:42,150 --> 00:55:53,550 | entitled for me to do these lessons for you either. But yet I do it because I love it. So don't look at this, and send me hate mail. Okay, and say you're |
| 376 | 00:55:53,550 --> 00:56:00,180 | selling your mentorship because honestly, I've taken the video down because we got too many of them. I'm not saying we won't give it another opportunity. But |
| 377 | 00:56:00,180 --> 00:56:04,710 | we got slammed. And I'm afraid I'm going to take more people than we can handle. |
| 378 | 00:56:05,820 --> 00:56:11,340 | But this action in here, it went back back down into an area where we had already outlined. |
| 379 | 00:56:12,540 --> 00:56:20,820 | And when my students see that, or when you see it trade up to the Orbach, which is something something that you understand by the YouTube channel content, you |
| 380 | 00:56:20,820 --> 00:56:30,840 | know what an order block is. So it's trading back up to that level as a target. Again, some of you may see that as an objective to go short. I don't see that |
| 381 | 00:56:30,840 --> 00:56:34,860 | personally. But you might, and I may may be your model. |
| 382 | 00:56:36,180 --> 00:56:40,710 | But when we look at the price action, after it creates this manipulation, |
| 383 | 00:56:41,850 --> 00:56:53,370 | we look at this right here. Institutional order flow. Now notice how every single day, it's been consolidation a little, a little weird in terms of its |
| 384 | 00:56:53,370 --> 00:57:07,110 | delivery, it's been consolidating, and we get this first pump up here, then it drives down. Okay, what did it do there? It took by stops out initially, then |
| 385 | 00:57:07,110 --> 00:57:17,220 | ran for the sell stops. Right here is one of those moments when you want to write down in your notes because if you do not do this, you are missing out on |
| 386 | 00:57:17,220 --> 00:57:19,290 | the golden teaching of this lesson. |
| 387 | 00:57:20,880 --> 00:57:33,900 | What's the bias? I told you bullish? Okay. If it's been bullish, and we see a consolidation in it runs what side of the marketplace first the buy side so it's |
| 388 | 00:57:33,900 --> 00:57:44,640 | doing what taking those traders out that were short. Their stopped out it's taking traders in that want to buy on a breakout and then attacking what |
| 389 | 00:57:45,870 --> 00:57:49,470 | their sell stop. So what is the narrative here? |
| 390 | 00:57:50,730 --> 00:57:54,390 | consolidation was underlying bullish bias |
| 391 | 00:57:56,820 --> 00:58:06,270 | FOMC is the high impact news event for euro for the week. The market breaks out of the consolidation takes by side out trips traders long |
| 392 | 00:58:07,290 --> 00:58:19,470 | day attacks them. If it does this on FOMC or if it does something like this, it any medium or high impact news event you have a trade |
| 393 | 00:58:20,850 --> 00:58:28,290 | you in the buyer down here or you wait for any type of small little retracement as it starts to move back up. |
| 394 | 00:58:32,100 --> 00:58:34,650 | Right in here, small little retracement in here. |
| 395 | 00:58:36,030 --> 00:58:45,210 | As it's pulling back. Remember, this line should be on your chart, or least in your notes saying okay, this is where I'm aiming for. So anytime you have down |
| 396 | 00:58:45,210 --> 00:58:48,450 | candles, think about this right here institutional order flow. |
| 397 | 00:58:49,590 --> 00:59:01,530 | If you're bullish, and we had some type of manipulation a stock run, the market is now allowed to move higher and reprice higher. It won't always give you a run |
| 398 | 00:59:01,560 --> 00:59:12,420 | optimal trade entry, buy more run optimal trade entry buy more it won't do that. When we're close to a higher time frame, higher timeframe target in this case, |
| 399 | 00:59:13,080 --> 00:59:16,620 | you're going to see less pullbacks. Because it's just going to keep |
| 400 | 00:59:18,450 --> 00:59:25,710 | repricing until it gets to the objective. And again, I'm not trying to frame the idea that this is the high or top in the marketplace for euro. I'm just saying |
| 401 | 00:59:25,710 --> 00:59:35,130 | that this is something that would finish the idea for me for the week. And I wouldn't try to do anything on Friday in the trade. Let's put it that way. Now, |
| 402 | 00:59:35,160 --> 00:59:44,160 | if this was trading here on Wednesday, and say this is like Wednesday, New York, I would still look to see if it had more room to go up for the week. But I |
| 403 | 00:59:44,160 --> 00:59:45,150 | wouldn't be so |
| 404 | 00:59:46,290 --> 00:59:56,790 | overwhelmingly, you know, bullish to allow more risk or I wouldn't use my maximum risk. I would use one quarter of what I would normally risk because of |
| 405 | 00:59:56,790 --> 01:00:00,000 | the time element. You think it's a cutting |
| 406 | 01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:11,550 | Dry, easy biases this or that. And that's why I tell everyone that I can give you ideas to give you bias but you're going to fail on something else. And |
| 407 | 01:00:11,550 --> 01:00:14,370 | that's why these videos which I go into with well meaning |
| 408 | 01:00:15,839 --> 01:00:23,249 | in trying to make them short and concise because I get a lot of people that are impatient or new, they think that just tell me get to the point in this whole |
| 409 | 01:00:23,249 --> 01:00:24,299 | video is the point. |
| 410 | 01:00:25,710 --> 01:00:37,470 | There, these are all millionaire making concepts, helping you understand bias, I'm showing you how you're going to fail, using ideas that you can learn from |
| 411 | 01:00:37,470 --> 01:00:46,080 | this YouTube channel. And I did not mess up saying that, because everyone thinks like at the beginning slide on this presentation. Everyone thinks that if you're |
| 412 | 01:00:46,080 --> 01:00:56,310 | bullish, it should be open, down by up close and close on the high end, it isn't going to always be like that. The market structure that's in play, which is what |
| 413 | 01:00:56,310 --> 01:01:04,290 | we've had been contending with, all through here is on longer term consolidation on the higher timeframe on the daily chart. |
| 414 | 01:01:05,640 --> 01:01:15,750 | So on the hourly, you can really see it's clearly defined as a consolidation. And then you had this it show it shows you that yes, it's time. |
| 415 | 01:01:17,100 --> 01:01:24,300 | What's the time for it's going to run higher? But what is it doing? It takes the retail traders short out and puts them in long, |
| 416 | 01:01:25,470 --> 01:01:26,640 | then raids them. |
| 417 | 01:01:28,710 --> 01:01:31,830 | So with who's in the marketplace now? No one, |
| 418 | 01:01:32,940 --> 01:01:43,200 | not retail. Now, I'm not saying that suddenly, I was in this trade, we should all know, what I'm saying is this event here takes into account near term |
| 419 | 01:01:43,680 --> 01:01:55,470 | liquidity. So the open float above these highs here, they attack that for two reasons. neutralize shorts, engineer new entries on a breakout with buy stops. |
| 420 | 01:01:55,890 --> 01:02:04,440 | So traders that want to buy when it breaks above here, because they may have a bullish bias to. And if it goes up, they think is gonna keep on going. Well, the |
| 421 | 01:02:04,440 --> 01:02:14,910 | algorithm has something for them too. It runs up, puts the shorts out and puts the Long's in, then attacks them. Why does it do that? |
| 422 | 01:02:16,110 --> 01:02:17,760 | Think about it. Why would it want to do that? |
| 423 | 01:02:19,530 --> 01:02:23,640 | Well, I'm trying not to personify the algorithm. But the logic behind it is |
| 424 | 01:02:24,810 --> 01:02:29,910 | the shorts is not going to make any money. Okay, shorts aren't going to make any money. So that's just |
| 425 | 01:02:31,260 --> 01:02:32,640 | they're just a casualty of war. |
| 426 | 01:02:33,690 --> 01:02:39,810 | the buy side liquidity, they want to set what emotion they want to put traders in long. |
| 427 | 01:02:41,700 --> 01:02:52,560 | Why? Because that's going to engineer new sellers below the market at this time. So where are they going to look for that? below here. |
| 428 | 01:02:53,700 --> 01:03:02,220 | So what's going to be below here, once this move happened, sell side liquidity is going to immediately enter the marketplace where it wasn't there before. |
| 429 | 01:03:03,030 --> 01:03:07,440 | Because it ran out. It took the buy side liquidity out here. Now once it does that, |
| 430 | 01:03:08,460 --> 01:03:18,870 | the algorithm is designed to go back down here. Because of the the mindset of traders. They're going to be buying all this they're going to chase it. And when |
| 431 | 01:03:18,870 --> 01:03:25,020 | you buy something, how do you protect that position? You put a sell stop when Okay, so where sell stop going to go below here? |
| 432 | 01:03:26,760 --> 01:03:36,180 | Okay, great. When the market trades down there, what does that facilitate for the Smart Money trader, they can buy those sell stops. So there's sellers are |
| 433 | 01:03:36,180 --> 01:03:37,980 | being paired up with more in |
| 434 | 01:03:39,210 --> 01:03:40,140 | form traders. |
| 435 | 01:03:41,190 --> 01:03:52,020 | So they're buying at the low the day during FOMC. scooping up that and rallying up. And notice how every time we have down close candles, like all this is 123 |
| 436 | 01:03:52,020 --> 01:04:01,350 | down close candles consecutively. So what happens is the market trades above it here and then works back down into it that's working in an order block. So this |
| 437 | 01:04:01,350 --> 01:04:10,650 | is a buying opportunity rallies up here's a down close candle right there. It's small, but what would you expect after the down close candle range expansion on |
| 438 | 01:04:10,650 --> 01:04:11,160 | the upside |
| 439 | 01:04:12,870 --> 01:04:23,850 | down close candles range expansion down close candle range expansion, down close candle range expansion down close candle up, candle down close candle up candle. |
| 440 | 01:04:24,120 --> 01:04:34,290 | And now we're at the objective of the order block. That's institutional order flow in instances where you're bullish, okay. Anytime you see a down closed |
| 441 | 01:04:34,290 --> 01:04:38,490 | candle, that's an opportunity to get ready because we're going to see another range expansion on the upside. |
| 442 | 01:04:39,660 --> 01:04:50,250 | That's institutional overflow. Now, that's not everything about institutional overflow, but it's how you watch the tape. You don't look at down moves and grow |
| 443 | 01:04:50,250 --> 01:05:00,000 | disenchanted or impatient thinking I'm wrong or second guess yourself. you anticipate the next drive higher in the candlestick formation. |
| 444 | 01:05:00,000 --> 01:05:10,110 | These clothes. On the downside, like these little down black candles, the next candles in my chart should be green. And every time you start seeing that, okay, |
| 445 | 01:05:10,110 --> 01:05:19,800 | it's confirming that your own side, that means you're on the right side of the marketplace. Do not be fearful of down close candles or consolidation. That's |
| 446 | 01:05:19,800 --> 01:05:30,120 | the normal Evan flow the marketplace. But you need to see this live and you can't just watch it on the replay button of trading view, it doesn't communicate |
| 447 | 01:05:30,120 --> 01:05:30,840 | the same way. |
| 448 | 01:05:34,680 --> 01:05:38,100 | Moving on to the 15 timeframe to close this up, you can see again, |
| 449 | 01:05:39,780 --> 01:05:41,040 | nice clean levels, |
| 450 | 01:05:42,060 --> 01:05:49,770 | punches down on FOMC rallies back up, trades back down into your block relative to the hourly chart, you see that here. |
| 451 | 01:05:50,790 --> 01:05:59,760 | rallies up again trades back down into what this down close candle which is a bullish order block there. rallies Up, down close candles, green, |
| 452 | 01:06:01,140 --> 01:06:12,900 | down close candles, green, a little bit of consolidation here and another leg up each time. But every single time you see down close candles, you as a retail |
| 453 | 01:06:12,900 --> 01:06:23,580 | trader or a neophyte that is normal for you to feel that way. You want every candle to be going in your direction as a new trader, and you don't like the |
| 454 | 01:06:23,580 --> 01:06:31,320 | uncomfortable feeling of when it's pausing. Or having a little bit of retracement, you lose your mind over that. And I used to do the same thing |
| 455 | 01:06:31,320 --> 01:06:40,290 | because I was over leveraging. I was doing crazy stuff. With little accounts. When I first began, I had no idea what I was dealing and had no stop loss on. It |
| 456 | 01:06:40,290 --> 01:06:41,070 | was madness. |
| 457 | 01:06:42,270 --> 01:06:52,560 | The only way you're going to learn how to trust daily bias and know when it's favorable is by understanding the economic calendar market structure and |
| 458 | 01:06:52,620 --> 01:06:53,970 | understanding institutional order flow. |
| 459 | 01:06:55,530 --> 01:07:04,320 | The institutional order flow is the last thing in this list. But this right here is assuming that you know what this is the draw on liquidity. And that's |
| 460 | 01:07:04,320 --> 01:07:12,360 | assuming you know how to find the high when you're bullish. And knowing that you're going to be buying at or just below the opening price, or near it in New |
| 461 | 01:07:12,360 --> 01:07:12,810 | York. |
| 462 | 01:07:14,430 --> 01:07:25,560 | And that's going to give you the architecture of the daily range that you can trust. But you will not do it right away. And you have to go through months and |
| 463 | 01:07:25,560 --> 01:07:34,920 | months of drills and practicing. And over time, you will pick up on little subtle characteristics of the things I've already taught in this YouTube |
| 464 | 01:07:34,920 --> 01:07:45,240 | channel. And in this lesson here, it'll start making more sense to you and you won't fear it. See, that's it you're you're fearful of, you're fearful of |
| 465 | 01:07:45,240 --> 01:07:54,210 | getting it wrong. See what you are asking me is Michael, teach me the secret. So that way I know when the daily bias is right in avoided times when I'm when it's |
| 466 | 01:07:54,210 --> 01:08:01,080 | going to be wrong. And I don't have that 100% accuracy. I don't have that. |
| 467 | 01:08:02,460 --> 01:08:10,950 | I mean, the 90s. But that's still relying on a great deal of experience. I don't go in there every single day trying to do something. |
| 468 | 01:08:12,060 --> 01:08:18,030 | I mean, I can, and I'm going to lose, eventually, if I do that I'm going to lose more than I am willing to lose. |
| 469 | 01:08:19,230 --> 01:08:28,350 | But when you're practicing and learning how to do this, you need to invite the losses. And don't be fearful of it. And it sounds counterproductive. It's it's |
| 470 | 01:08:28,350 --> 01:08:33,540 | counterintuitive to hear that saying hey, look, you know, go in there and welcome being wrong. |
| 471 | 01:08:34,620 --> 01:08:43,920 | Because it doesn't make any sense to you. You want to be doing this right away perfectly and making money. And daily bias can't be derived without going |
| 472 | 01:08:43,920 --> 01:08:54,210 | through growing pains. There is not a teacher there is not a mentor there is not a trader educator guy out there or gal that's going to sit down with you and |
| 473 | 01:08:54,210 --> 01:09:01,500 | say, here's what you do, didn't intend to do and follow this recipe, and you won't have any growing pains. And it's going to be easy, you're gonna make money |
| 474 | 01:09:01,500 --> 01:09:03,240 | right away, just go on and start a Live account. |
| 475 | 01:09:04,530 --> 01:09:11,250 | Because that's what you think is available. And some of you think that's going to happen with me. And I'm telling you and I've said it many times in other |
| 476 | 01:09:11,250 --> 01:09:23,640 | videos, I don't do that. I'm teaching you exactly what you need to know and how to get it. But you're you want to shortcut you want to get around the work of |
| 477 | 01:09:23,640 --> 01:09:36,900 | it. And just, Oh, I know how to do because I watched the video. Man I wish it was like that. I wish it was I really wish it was. But it's not. Everything is a |
| 478 | 01:09:36,900 --> 01:09:43,950 | process. And because there's so many factors in this and it's the world's most difficult puzzle. |
| 479 | 01:09:45,240 --> 01:09:54,330 | You're dealing with the banks all around the world. And these people are extremely greedy and they don't want you in their playground. You're not |
| 480 | 01:09:54,330 --> 01:09:58,140 | supposed to be here. So as a reminder, this letting you know |
| 481 | 01:09:59,310 --> 01:09:59,970 | daily bias |
| 482 | 01:10:00,000 --> 01:10:11,430 | is possible. But daily bias is not every day bias, not in the sense that it's going to pan out every single day the same way you want it to. But if you are |
| 483 | 01:10:11,430 --> 01:10:23,130 | looking at a higher timeframe chart, and you're trying to predict the more upside, or the more downside on the weekly range that's about to form, if you |
| 484 | 01:10:23,130 --> 01:10:31,890 | spend time with trying to do that, and sometimes even submitting to Monday's trading, and let Monday tell you what it's likely to do. Go in here, start |
| 485 | 01:10:31,890 --> 01:10:40,410 | looking for 15 minute chart highs and lows and hourly highs and lows, and you'll see what it's going to most likely run to. And does that fit your expectation |
| 486 | 01:10:40,410 --> 01:10:49,110 | for the weekly range? Is it likely to expand up? And then when Monday's trading happens? Does it still leave equal highs? Well, it might be running this on |
| 487 | 01:10:49,110 --> 01:10:58,170 | Tuesday and Wednesday. So what would that be suggesting to you that your idea about that weekly range expanding on the upside and your bias for being a |
| 488 | 01:10:58,290 --> 01:11:09,060 | bullish trader, that might be something you could be probing on Tuesday and Wednesday of that particular week expecially if there's a high impact or medium |
| 489 | 01:11:09,060 --> 01:11:19,920 | impact news driver, thrown in London session and or the New York session, so you're blending time in price. And you're also incorporating the narrative idea, |
| 490 | 01:11:20,310 --> 01:11:28,770 | you have to have an idea why these markets should be going where they're going. And when you blend all these things together, then you'll have a clear picture |
| 491 | 01:11:28,920 --> 01:11:36,960 | may not be high resolution in the beginning, because you're developing. But eventually, over time, you'll have 4k resolution on the days that it matters. |
| 492 | 01:11:37,860 --> 01:11:45,990 | It's not an everyday bias. Even though you have a preconceived idea what the bias should be, you may go into the marketplace and see something that |
| 493 | 01:11:45,990 --> 01:11:54,090 | completely negates that whole idea. And you have to be flexible with that. Remember, I mentioned that earlier in the video? What does that mean? Not being |
| 494 | 01:11:54,090 --> 01:12:03,030 | mad that it didn't give you a setup or if you missed it, you're not mad about that. Or if you tried something and you got stopped out and you were wrong. You |
| 495 | 01:12:03,030 --> 01:12:06,780 | don't get mad about that either. And you don't necessarily abandon their bias. |
| 496 | 01:12:08,370 --> 01:12:12,000 | If you take a long, and you are expecting a big range on the upside, |
| 497 | 01:12:13,140 --> 01:12:22,560 | and it creates a down day and stops you out. Should you abandon that bias? No, because as I mentioned earlier in the video, if you have a down day when its |
| 498 | 01:12:22,560 --> 01:12:33,810 | underlying Lee bullish many times right after that down candle on the daily chart, you have a really big upside day or a series of updates. So try not to |
| 499 | 01:12:33,810 --> 01:12:43,590 | just throw out the idea that if you get it wrong, that your bias is wrong. That's why it's important to be focusing on these higher timeframe charts, and |
| 500 | 01:12:43,830 --> 01:12:51,420 | getting a feel for what they're reaching for. And if you operate in that context, you're going to find that it's not as hard as you think it is right |
| 501 | 01:12:51,420 --> 01:13:00,690 | now. But all these things are given to you here are not trying to complicate bias. But I'm just trying to show you all the fact and these aren't all of them. |
| 502 | 01:13:01,020 --> 01:13:12,630 | But there's other factors that lead to understanding when the bias is bullish or bearish. And for that very day. And the key is understanding that calendar, and |
| 503 | 01:13:12,630 --> 01:13:19,830 | market structure. And if you understand those, and you can see what you're looking for from next draw on liquidity, you can see that there's several |
| 504 | 01:13:19,830 --> 01:13:28,680 | ingredients that's necessary for that recipe to deliver bias, at least a meaningful and quote unquote, profitable bias. |
| 505 | 01:13:29,790 --> 01:13:36,240 | So hopefully, you got something out of this. And I'm sure it made all kinds of new questions in your mind, maybe I bored you maybe I've completely confused you |
| 506 | 01:13:36,240 --> 01:13:38,970 | to the point where you don't even think it's possible now. |
| 507 | 01:13:40,140 --> 01:13:48,630 | And I can tell you, if that's happened, you're you're a new student. And that's normal. It's absolutely normal for you to feel that way. So |
| 508 | 01:13:50,280 --> 01:14:00,030 | take notes, watch it a couple times and go into your charts. And you'll see what I'm talking about is there. And it's not just once in a while it's there a lot. |
| 509 | 01:14:00,570 --> 01:14:09,690 | And when you see these things come together, you'll know how it is that I'm able to in my group is able to go in and see the market and say okay, it's likely to |
| 510 | 01:14:09,690 --> 01:14:15,510 | go up this day or it's going to be bullish this week or bearish this week is going to be reaching for this particular target. And then once you have that |
| 511 | 01:14:15,510 --> 01:14:23,970 | framework, if you have a setup like optimal trade entry, or if you like to trade bullish orderbox or bearish order blocks or like breakers, okay, if you'd like |
| 512 | 01:14:23,970 --> 01:14:35,460 | my ice breaker, that pattern is what you would go in here and hunt. And that's your that's your model. And you just apply some kind of a money management idea |
| 513 | 01:14:35,460 --> 01:14:37,230 | to it and there it is. So |
| 514 | 01:14:38,460 --> 01:14:43,680 | this was my short rendition, this could have easily been a four hour video. And |
| 515 | 01:14:45,150 --> 01:14:52,860 | I every time I say I'm going to do a short video, it always goes a little bit longer than I want it to but I would have loved to had the information I've |
| 516 | 01:14:52,860 --> 01:14:54,600 | given you here tonight when I first started. |
| 517 | 01:14:56,070 --> 01:15:00,000 | I was extremely interested in going through charts all the time. |
| 518 | 01:15:00,810 --> 01:15:12,660 | I worked my rear end off studying and looking at data, and completely becoming an animal like a savage with looking at price action and running scenarios, |
| 519 | 01:15:12,660 --> 01:15:13,110 | running |
| 520 | 01:15:14,160 --> 01:15:21,210 | system tests, you know, I had TradeStation, and super charts and meta stock in my earlier years, and |
| 521 | 01:15:22,530 --> 01:15:32,280 | I did a lot of computations and programming and things. And I can tell you, all of that stuff. While it was fun to do, it is not as good as just simply taking a |
| 522 | 01:15:32,280 --> 01:15:40,440 | chart using logic, like I just gave you here, and going through by hand manually. And it feels like I there's no way I should be doing that I see with |
| 523 | 01:15:40,440 --> 01:15:41,400 | technology the way it is. |
| 524 | 01:15:42,930 --> 01:15:50,820 | But I promise you, if you do it, that way, you're going to get closer to the marketplace. Because it's going to be meaningful to you, you're going to write |
| 525 | 01:15:50,820 --> 01:15:56,850 | your own annotations on the chart, you're not having some kind of number cruncher, you know, I know there's quants in my |
| 526 | 01:15:58,350 --> 01:16:13,200 | audience and student group. And while they're brilliant people, there's certain advantages to being in here and handling the data manually. And it will give you |
| 527 | 01:16:13,200 --> 01:16:23,250 | an insight that you can use if you want to be programming some of these things, it'll give you some insight to how you can bridge that. Because it's not always |
| 528 | 01:16:23,250 --> 01:16:30,450 | simply, well, I'm going to buy down close candle, because it's a bullshitter block, there's things that have to be in play. And not everything can be |
| 529 | 01:16:30,450 --> 01:16:40,080 | programmed, there has to be filters. And not every filter can be programmed. And I know that because I am a computer programmer at heart. I was making my own |
| 530 | 01:16:40,080 --> 01:16:42,270 | programs when I was in sixth grade. So |
| 531 | 01:16:43,560 --> 01:16:54,990 | anyway, I think I've given you a lot tonight for daily bias I shown you when it's operable, and it's not the classic, open low the day and close on the high |
| 532 | 01:16:54,990 --> 01:17:06,270 | when it's a bullish scenario, despite being and having had a bullish scenario, and bias for Europe. And this is what we are sometimes contending with. And you |
| 533 | 01:17:06,300 --> 01:17:18,030 | either have to submit to that and say, okay, nothing's broken, no harm, no foul, or nowhere to get in and operate in that context. And then you will be a master |
| 534 | 01:17:18,030 --> 01:17:22,440 | of bias, you'll know what it is that you're going to do when you're going to do it and why you're doing it. |
| 535 | 01:17:23,460 --> 01:17:32,340 | And that's important. But it isn't always a one shot. Here's a video. And this is how you know when there's going to be a bullish or bearish day. |
| 536 | 01:17:33,450 --> 01:17:38,160 | It's it very frustrating for me, as an educator to |
| 537 | 01:17:39,840 --> 01:17:49,470 | talk about this one particular topic. And I know it feels like I'm holding something back. But I gave you some things that I teach and mentorship even in |
| 538 | 01:17:49,470 --> 01:17:59,610 | this lesson. I didn't draw any special light to it. But it's here. And if you do the work and go through your charts and see it, you're gonna see priced |
| 539 | 01:17:59,610 --> 01:18:08,730 | differently than you did prior to watching this video. You're also going to respect the days that aren't that classic by day, as outlined in the first slide |
| 540 | 01:18:08,730 --> 01:18:18,900 | of this video, where the daily range is that open, high low close bar, and it's just a perfect up day. That's classic. Not every day is a classic day. So you're |
| 541 | 01:18:18,900 --> 01:18:29,070 | going to be met with these types of scenarios and, and for your notes. We are in a time of the year when this is kind of like what you expect, in a lot of |
| 542 | 01:18:29,100 --> 01:18:38,070 | consolidation. Everybody's trying not to take new risks, because the money they made earlier this whole year, they're not really trying to move around too much. |
| 543 | 01:18:38,100 --> 01:18:45,540 | And the banks know that so they're not going to try to be repricing aggressively. Now we do have things in the states that are being challenged. And |
| 544 | 01:18:45,540 --> 01:18:46,860 | I'm not going to say anything more than that. |
| 545 | 01:18:47,940 --> 01:18:56,190 | But that could potentially cause some kind of event where the markets can reprice aggressively. And that's why I've warned. |
| 546 | 01:18:57,210 --> 01:19:04,770 | Normally, I wouldn't have any expectation of something that happened. But because of the circumstances that we have here in the United States, at present |
| 547 | 01:19:04,770 --> 01:19:05,850 | for the last month or so |
| 548 | 01:19:07,440 --> 01:19:16,350 | we could have something that would draw more volatility in that would normally not be present this time of year. So this time of year, from a seasonal |
| 549 | 01:19:16,350 --> 01:19:26,490 | standpoint, it's usually quiet, things get real, real quiet. And the daily ranges tend to be really lackluster. So it usually carries over into |
| 550 | 01:19:27,780 --> 01:19:39,390 | most of January. And I usually start my own trading in February of the following year. I used to do the second week of January, I would start trading it then. |
| 551 | 01:19:39,870 --> 01:19:44,610 | And then I just grew into this letting him have the entire month of January. And |
| 552 | 01:19:45,960 --> 01:19:52,860 | once February usually starts it's usually very easy for me to go in here and get in sync with the marketplace. So |
| 553 | 01:19:53,880 --> 01:19:56,130 | that's this is going to toss that in here an extra charge. |
| 554 | 01:19:57,300 --> 01:19:59,970 | And I'm not sure when I'm going to do another video |
| 555 | 01:20:00,359 --> 01:20:09,719 | I'm not certain I'm going to be able to put one up before Christmas. So I'm going to take this opportunity to extend a very warm and heartfelt, Merry |
| 556 | 01:20:09,719 --> 01:20:20,699 | Christmas. And I know 2020 has been a very challenging year. If you have had trouble this year trading, if you had trouble with your analysis, I have been on |
| 557 | 01:20:20,699 --> 01:20:30,869 | record several times. This year has been the hardest year, except for my first year, which is everybody's hardest year. But I didn't really know what I was |
| 558 | 01:20:30,869 --> 01:20:40,799 | doing back then. But I know what I'm doing now. And I have been very candid with my own group. And the few times I've talked about it on YouTube, this year has |
| 559 | 01:20:40,799 --> 01:20:50,909 | been very, very hard. Usually, it's very easy for me to get in and find all kinds of setups. But because of all the the things that we had to deal with |
| 560 | 01:20:50,909 --> 01:20:53,009 | globally, and you know what I'm talking about? |
| 561 | 01:20:54,120 --> 01:21:05,610 | It's a learning experience. And Brexit was another learning experience for me, and I'm still learning from that as well. So you're never 100% master of |
| 562 | 01:21:05,610 --> 01:21:17,190 | everything. You just master yourself. And you master your unique model. And daily bias is just one component. It's not the answer. So don't feel that you |
| 563 | 01:21:17,190 --> 01:21:24,930 | need to send me an email in the future. And or even after this one say, Well, if you teach me bias, I still think it's going to assist not that's not the that's |
| 564 | 01:21:24,930 --> 01:21:36,360 | not the silver bullet. It's not the the magic formula, okay, or ingredient for this recipe of being consistently profitable. You can actually go in with a |
| 565 | 01:21:36,360 --> 01:21:40,650 | bias, that would be against what I just outline here and still find trades that are profitable. |
| 566 | 01:21:41,760 --> 01:21:42,450 | What do you say? |
| 567 | 01:21:43,650 --> 01:21:53,730 | Yeah, there, look, I'm not teaching the only ways to skin a cat. There's lots of people out there that trade opposed to what I do and still confined |
| 568 | 01:21:53,730 --> 01:22:02,340 | profitability. I'm just showing you how the markets really reprice and how you can operate net with no real stress doesn't mean you're not going to have |
| 569 | 01:22:02,340 --> 01:22:14,100 | losses, you will. But don't think that the things I've outlined here are the only way of doing it. Because it's not, you can do things that would be contrary |
| 570 | 01:22:14,100 --> 01:22:23,490 | to what I just said here. And again, as a new student, or a new trader that just completely short circuited you like What did you say? And how could it be true? |
| 571 | 01:22:24,000 --> 01:22:33,180 | That's the beautiful thing about trading. There's room on both sides, but you have to know why you're doing it. And how long you're gonna do it for. |
| 572 | 01:22:34,230 --> 01:22:43,620 | Everything is scalable. And just because the bias may be bullish doesn't mean someone that has an ideal scenario that could be a short seller, doesn't mean |
| 573 | 01:22:43,620 --> 01:22:50,250 | they can't look at these environments where they may be aware that it may be bullish, but they also know how to get some kind of a climax, short term |
| 574 | 01:22:50,250 --> 01:22:58,950 | reversal. And that's their scalp. That's their trade. That's their bread and butter. Even though they may feel that it's on the Langley bullish their niche |
| 575 | 01:22:58,980 --> 01:23:06,660 | is, I'm going to capitalize on that little short surgical strike where it just pulls back, because that doesn't fit their personality to go in sync with it. |
| 576 | 01:23:06,690 --> 01:23:15,420 | Despite it being obvious to them. They know it. Because I have people in my group that's like this. And if we were all sitting in a group, we would be like, |
| 577 | 01:23:15,480 --> 01:23:24,960 | Are you drunk? Why would you think that way, and I get it, I get it. But other students wouldn't. And it would make them second guess their own model. |
| 578 | 01:23:26,280 --> 01:23:28,500 | So if you have something that works for you, |
| 579 | 01:23:29,670 --> 01:23:36,390 | the best thing in the world for you to do is keep it to yourself. Just keep it to yourself, because you're never going to hear what you want other people to |
| 580 | 01:23:36,390 --> 01:23:36,780 | tell you. |
| 581 | 01:23:37,800 --> 01:23:45,930 | And so many of you want to be right on your daily bias so that we can start telling everybody how well you're doing. And first of all, no one's going to |
| 582 | 01:23:45,930 --> 01:23:54,150 | believe that you're doing it. Okay? period. No one's going to believe that you're consistent with it. Even if you show them statements, even if you get my |
| 583 | 01:23:54,150 --> 01:24:04,170 | my effects book, they're gonna say somebody's rigging the system. The fact that you know, it's real, and then someone else says to you that it isn't, it's going |
| 584 | 01:24:04,170 --> 01:24:10,410 | to get under your skin, then he's going to be like, Oh, I need to, you know, I need to prove something to them. And then you're gonna start doing something |
| 585 | 01:24:10,440 --> 01:24:19,890 | outside your model, doing things to push the issue. And then when you do it wrong, and you do lose money, you're going to be regretful even more because you |
| 586 | 01:24:19,890 --> 01:24:30,090 | can't tell them you just lost trying to prove them wrong. So now you're sitting in quiet silence to yourself sulking because you did something emotionally. |
| 587 | 01:24:32,460 --> 01:24:40,950 | You know who you are. Your your nod your head right now. Yeah, I know. That's, that's probably what I would be doing. It is exactly what you'd be doing. I know |
| 588 | 01:24:40,950 --> 01:24:50,220 | because I should do that as a young man. So I've done all this stuff before folks. It's not because I'm acting smart. I dive the scars from all this. But |
| 589 | 01:24:50,220 --> 01:25:00,000 | daily bias is just one piece. And you have to have other points of information to justify and quality |
| 590 | 01:25:00,000 --> 01:25:09,210 | Really, the idea of it being a bullish or bearish scenario. And just because it's bullish and bearish, by your definition, doesn't mean that the markets |
| 591 | 01:25:09,210 --> 01:25:22,470 | going to deliver tomorrow, like you want it to, and how you interpret this going forward. And how you are flexible or inflexible is going to basically frame your |
| 592 | 01:25:22,470 --> 01:25:28,920 | next few months, if not your entire ending of your career, because some of you will just simply say, I can't do this. |
| 593 | 01:25:29,940 --> 01:25:39,930 | And there's no shame in that, because it's very, very hard. But everyone that has a strong passionate desire to do this, and has committed in their heart that |
| 594 | 01:25:39,930 --> 01:25:50,970 | they're never going to quit, they get here eventually, all different times, all different measures of, of length of time involved in, it's not going to be the |
| 595 | 01:25:50,970 --> 01:26:00,000 | same for each one of you. And how much time will it take for me to know my bias? You know, how long is it going to be? Until I know my unique trading model? I |
| 596 | 01:26:00,000 --> 01:26:13,230 | don't know. Honestly, when I'm tight, I don't know. I do still have 2016 that started in August of 2016. I still have students from that group. There isn't a |
| 597 | 01:26:13,230 --> 01:26:23,550 | lot, but I still have few of them that simply still don't know how they're going to find their own unique model. They just rely on what I say is going to happen |
| 598 | 01:26:23,550 --> 01:26:29,850 | in the marketplace, you know, pointing here pointing here. And it is study still. Is that normal? Yes. |
| 599 | 01:26:31,290 --> 01:26:42,390 | Is it getting close to the end when they should be? You know, getting closer to their model? I think they should. But I'm realistic. I don't know what they're |
| 600 | 01:26:42,390 --> 01:26:52,110 | contending with. I know most of them are trying to look for perfection. Which is why I've talked a lot about that in this topic. Because those same individuals |
| 601 | 01:26:52,110 --> 01:27:02,880 | from my 2016 group still choke on this topic. Because they want daily bias to be cut and dry black and white binary, it's this or it's that. And therefore |
| 602 | 01:27:02,880 --> 01:27:13,650 | everyday should be easy going. It's not like that. And you have to blend certain things and wait for more information, more data, more manipulation that comes by |
| 603 | 01:27:13,650 --> 01:27:17,940 | way of the economic calendar. And then those opportunities will materialize. |
| 604 | 01:27:19,350 --> 01:27:24,720 | But just simply going in and saying, Okay, I'm going to be a buyer today, I'm going to be a Saturday and it's going to be just simply cakewalk. |
| 605 | 01:27:27,210 --> 01:27:27,570 | Man, |
| 606 | 01:27:28,680 --> 01:27:29,880 | if it was that easy, |
| 607 | 01:27:30,990 --> 01:27:35,730 | everybody would be trading, it would be no skill required. |
| 608 | 01:27:37,350 --> 01:27:44,340 | But there's a lot of things that you're going to be doing, that you have to wrestle with, it's going to tell you your bias is wrong, your bias is wrong, |
| 609 | 01:27:44,370 --> 01:27:52,260 | your bias is wrong. That's what it's going to feel like in the beginning as you're learning. And you have to tell that voice in your head, shut up. Just |
| 610 | 01:27:52,260 --> 01:28:00,060 | listen to what I've already outlined. I believe I'm looking for a buy. And if you're looking for a buy, and you have sound logic behind what it is that |
| 611 | 01:28:00,060 --> 01:28:08,940 | constitutes a buy signal, it's either going to be there or it's not. And if you do take it and it stops you out, does it change your bias? You have to have |
| 612 | 01:28:08,940 --> 01:28:13,710 | rules in place to tell you, okay, this was just me getting stopped out, I'm still sticking with the bias. |
| 613 | 01:28:14,880 --> 01:28:21,690 | That's maturity. That's not gambling. That's not stubbornness as a gambler that is sticking to your model. |
| 614 | 01:28:22,710 --> 01:28:24,900 | And then using less risk on the next trade. |
| 615 | 01:28:26,460 --> 01:28:34,620 | Well, I need to make all that and a bigger profit, Michael, that doesn't make any sense. Why don't want to drop my risk. I just took a loss. |
| 616 | 01:28:35,730 --> 01:28:42,660 | Yeah. And you're probably gonna take another one, because you're probably in revenge mode. And you're probably going to get into it faster than you should |
| 617 | 01:28:42,660 --> 01:28:49,950 | have. And you're probably gonna be trading with more than you should have. And you probably more leverage, and you're using the first one, because you heard |
| 618 | 01:28:49,950 --> 01:28:50,760 | Martin Gale. |
| 619 | 01:28:52,680 --> 01:28:53,880 | You know where I'm going with that. |
| 620 | 01:28:55,440 --> 01:29:01,620 | Take a loss risk more than excellent. Take a loss of risk more than that one. And you'll get it all back on the neck straight. It's mean, you'll lose your |
| 621 | 01:29:01,620 --> 01:29:08,790 | account like that. I don't know, I blew a couple accounts like that. When I first started in the 90s. I did all kinds of stuff. |
| 622 | 01:29:10,110 --> 01:29:10,980 | But I can tell you |
| 623 | 01:29:12,090 --> 01:29:19,830 | what I gave you in this video here, in concert with the things I've already talked and taught in this YouTube channel. |
| 624 | 01:29:21,150 --> 01:29:26,190 | This is the real nuts and bolts to daily bias. It really is. And |
| 625 | 01:29:27,330 --> 01:29:39,540 | if you work with this, and you take your time, and you use your own experience, building it out fleshing it out, you will find that there'll be a day when you |
| 626 | 01:29:39,540 --> 01:29:43,530 | sit in front of charts and it'll just it'll click. You're like, Oh, |
| 627 | 01:29:44,610 --> 01:29:55,290 | I don't have to worry about it these days. But these are the days particularly I have to be expecting the daily bias to be impactful. That's that moment. That's |
| 628 | 01:29:55,290 --> 01:29:56,490 | that aha moment. |
| 629 | 01:29:57,660 --> 01:29:59,970 | I don't know how to tell you outside of whatever I taught |
| 630 | 01:30:00,000 --> 01:30:09,930 | You're here and in other videos, but when you see it and you understand it, you're like, Oh, I was forcing stuff. I really was trying to make things, you |
| 631 | 01:30:09,930 --> 01:30:17,730 | know, conform to my will. He doesn't feel like it's what's going on right now. But that's exactly what you're doing. Because that's exactly what everybody |
| 632 | 01:30:17,730 --> 01:30:26,520 | does. I did the same stuff when I was coming up. You keep pushing and telling yourself, it needs to be this way it has to be if I don't get it, right, this |
| 633 | 01:30:26,520 --> 01:30:27,570 | time, I'm quitting. |
| 634 | 01:30:29,820 --> 01:30:30,630 | No, you're not. |
| 635 | 01:30:31,980 --> 01:30:38,850 | You're not, you're not quitting, you're just gonna be mad. Okay, and that's what's going to happen. But |
| 636 | 01:30:40,530 --> 01:30:48,900 | you're gonna have to submit to this. The longer it takes for you to submit to it, the longer it's going to be for you to learn. If you're stubborn, and you're |
| 637 | 01:30:48,900 --> 01:30:56,700 | trying to be willful and say, I'm going to do it this way, because I'm committed to bullish bias. I think it's gonna be bullish everyday this week. And this is |
| 638 | 01:30:56,700 --> 01:30:57,990 | what's going to be I'm going to be buying. |
| 639 | 01:31:00,480 --> 01:31:00,930 | Okay. |
| 640 | 01:31:02,520 --> 01:31:17,730 | But you have to be mature and flexible. Because when it doesn't pan out, it doesn't mean that this logic is flawed. It just means that you went into |
| 641 | 01:31:19,590 --> 01:31:21,960 | a day where you think you didn't need a umbrella. |
| 642 | 01:31:23,070 --> 01:31:23,760 | And it rained. |
| 643 | 01:31:25,170 --> 01:31:26,070 | What are you gonna do about it? |
| 644 | 01:31:27,240 --> 01:31:28,980 | Well, I can tell you one thing, you're gonna get wet. |
| 645 | 01:31:30,030 --> 01:31:31,350 | You're going to die? No. |
| 646 | 01:31:32,520 --> 01:31:35,940 | It's going to be inconvenient. Sure, it would be |
| 647 | 01:31:36,960 --> 01:31:42,120 | best not the end of your life. It's not the end of your career, if you got wet. |
| 648 | 01:31:44,460 --> 01:31:48,750 | Some of you are going to take a bath, you're going to do things and test that |
| 649 | 01:31:49,770 --> 01:31:58,980 | mean, right class 20 times I feel like I got it figured out when going over 5% risk because man, if I can make 5% risk on this $100 account? mean, I could |
| 650 | 01:31:58,980 --> 01:32:04,440 | make? What $2,000? In a couple months, what do you think I didn't know you did that kind of stuff. |
| 651 | 01:32:06,060 --> 01:32:06,750 | Come on. Now. |
| 652 | 01:32:07,890 --> 01:32:13,740 | Everybody thinks that way. As soon as you get your calculator out, you start thinking, Okay, I get a daily bonus, right. So I get the daily buys right this |
| 653 | 01:32:13,740 --> 01:32:22,200 | three times a week, I can be wrong two times. Right? Since you're wrong that week, the first time and you're new, the rest of your week is shot, |
| 654 | 01:32:23,340 --> 01:32:30,900 | you're gonna do everything wrong. But it's gonna feel like you're doing everything right, to try to get that money back. That's why you don't trade with |
| 655 | 01:32:30,900 --> 01:32:32,430 | live funds until you know you're doing |
| 656 | 01:32:33,750 --> 01:32:42,360 | trading with a demo account. Six months consistently, no care in the world, what the outcome of the trade is going to be. Not because it's not real money, |
| 657 | 01:32:42,390 --> 01:32:51,960 | because you don't care. You're indifferent to it. That's when bias is going to be easy for you, when you know that it should be a buy for you. But you'd really |
| 658 | 01:32:51,960 --> 01:32:54,240 | don't care, you're indifferent to it, you're indifferent to the outcome, |
| 659 | 01:32:55,590 --> 01:33:06,780 | then you're ready for what the next step. And I'm not sure what that means for you personally, that's a choice that you all make. But you got to have rules, |
| 660 | 01:33:06,930 --> 01:33:16,500 | and you have to know what you're looking for. And you have to know when to take information in and also how to filter it. a losing trade doesn't mean bias is |
| 661 | 01:33:16,500 --> 01:33:16,860 | wrong. |
| 662 | 01:33:19,020 --> 01:33:20,610 | And some of you aren't prepared to hear that. |
| 663 | 01:33:22,170 --> 01:33:28,560 | And that's why you have to watch videos like this one a few times. After you've gone through some more charts, come back to this one. And then you'll hear me |
| 664 | 01:33:28,560 --> 01:33:37,110 | say something that you didn't fully understand until you had some experience looking at things like this. And oh, yeah, no, no, I can see more of what he was |
| 665 | 01:33:37,110 --> 01:33:46,380 | saying. And it feels like I gave you a different video. Like I updated the video. And I haven't take the bandwidth the same for the first time you watched |
| 666 | 01:33:46,380 --> 01:33:56,820 | it. But you're just not able to see it. Because you have these ideas. Like right now, I've been talking way too long in your eyes. But in my eyes, I haven't |
| 667 | 01:33:56,820 --> 01:33:57,660 | talked enough yet. |
| 668 | 01:33:58,830 --> 01:34:05,280 | Because I know the questions that are popping up, I know the arm wrestling that you're having internally, I knew the things that you're struggling with, I know |
| 669 | 01:34:05,280 --> 01:34:11,910 | the things that you're saying are paramount that aren't paramount. And I'm bringing to light the things that are more Paramount, that you aren't even aware |
| 670 | 01:34:11,910 --> 01:34:13,560 | that you should be thinking you're concerned about. |
| 671 | 01:34:15,180 --> 01:34:21,930 | I'm teaching you what pitfalls you're going to have if you do things or if you don't do certain things. That's why I talk a lot. |
| 672 | 01:34:23,100 --> 01:34:31,860 | I know this stuff like the back of my hand and I know what human nature is going to do. Because I've taught lots of people. And it's the same questions. It's the |
| 673 | 01:34:31,860 --> 01:34:40,710 | same struggling points. It's the same things. And what's difficult for me as a mentor is I can't always get the individuals that are hanging out there |
| 674 | 01:34:41,730 --> 01:34:44,970 | on the fringe that have just no |
| 675 | 01:34:46,080 --> 01:34:56,070 | willingness to just stop doing what they're doing. And just be flexible. They don't want to be flexible. They hold to bias has to be black and white. It's |
| 676 | 01:34:56,070 --> 01:34:59,010 | binary. It's yes or no it's on or off. |
| 677 | 01:35:00,000 --> 01:35:01,290 | It's not that way. |
| 678 | 01:35:02,730 --> 01:35:04,260 | It's just a probability. |
| 679 | 01:35:05,339 --> 01:35:11,789 | It's simple as that. And how can you reduce it to where you're not struggling? Well, |
| 680 | 01:35:14,670 --> 01:35:16,200 | you can look at |
| 681 | 01:35:18,029 --> 01:35:19,769 | at least a year's worth of data |
| 682 | 01:35:21,390 --> 01:35:22,200 | on |
| 683 | 01:35:23,310 --> 01:35:33,750 | a stock, look on a commodity, look at a couple different forex pairs and look at an index like the s&p 500. |
| 684 | 01:35:34,920 --> 01:35:39,180 | And really tackle each individual day |
| 685 | 01:35:40,410 --> 01:35:42,750 | for each one of them for a full year. |
| 686 | 01:35:44,070 --> 01:35:52,320 | Count how many times that the market goes up and down? And what days of the week? It does, because honestly, folks, that's what I did to learn all this. |
| 687 | 01:35:54,210 --> 01:36:00,240 | You think that someone sat down and pointed this point that that didn't happen like that? That's not how this happened for me. |
| 688 | 01:36:01,260 --> 01:36:09,000 | I went through hundreds and hundreds of charts, every single week. |
| 689 | 01:36:10,410 --> 01:36:11,400 | And that was my life. |
| 690 | 01:36:12,510 --> 01:36:14,610 | And I gave up everything for it. |
| 691 | 01:36:15,840 --> 01:36:19,500 | So if I'm telling you, as someone that can do this very well. |
| 692 | 01:36:20,910 --> 01:36:35,160 | I'm not 100%. But I can tell you, there is no easy way. There is no shortcut. There is no magic bullet. You got to go in here and submit to it and see it for |
| 693 | 01:36:35,160 --> 01:36:42,420 | what it is. And once you identify, oh, it's not perfect. But man, is this thing accurate? And then you got it. |
| 694 | 01:36:43,860 --> 01:36:51,270 | That's all you need. You only need one day of the week where you think your bias is right? How you do that I've already told you the economic calendar, |
| 695 | 01:36:52,350 --> 01:37:00,180 | you wait for microstructure to get in alignment with that manipulation. And then you have the setup. That's your trade. That's your setup. |
| 696 | 01:37:02,520 --> 01:37:10,680 | Anything else around that would be scalps for the week. But your bread and butter setup for that week is going to always going to be coupled with market |
| 697 | 01:37:10,680 --> 01:37:23,970 | structure and the economic calendar for that particular market that has the news event around it. That's daily bias. It's that day's bias. See how did that it's |
| 698 | 01:37:23,970 --> 01:37:27,420 | not every single day, it's going to be an up day? No, |
| 699 | 01:37:28,680 --> 01:37:29,310 | it could. |
| 700 | 01:37:30,540 --> 01:37:35,070 | But I'm only focusing in on the days that are cherry. |
| 701 | 01:37:36,150 --> 01:37:41,760 | And that's why it looks like I'm cherry picking my trades. He only shows us winning trades. |
| 702 | 01:37:43,470 --> 01:37:46,200 | Look, I don't trade all the time. |
| 703 | 01:37:47,400 --> 01:37:52,320 | I only look for certain setups, and certain things I'm looking for. And that's it. |
| 704 | 01:37:55,380 --> 01:38:05,340 | You'll get it. You'll get here. But you have to take a lot of time and time again to do it. And don't put a time limit on it. Don't put a deadline on your |
| 705 | 01:38:05,340 --> 01:38:14,160 | success. Don't say I have to have it by this time. Because as soon as you start thinking that way, it's not going to work. It's going to be at least double from |
| 706 | 01:38:14,160 --> 01:38:21,780 | what you said it's going to be if you say I have to hit by this needle and approve that you don't. It's going to show you it takes twice as long. |
| 707 | 01:38:22,800 --> 01:38:33,690 | But are you going to have the fortitude to stay with this? Most people don't. They realize this is way much more than they thought it was going to be in terms |
| 708 | 01:38:33,690 --> 01:38:36,990 | of study, work, discipline. |
| 709 | 01:38:38,160 --> 01:38:39,390 | Look around the world right now. |
| 710 | 01:38:40,410 --> 01:38:43,050 | People are not patient. They're not |
| 711 | 01:38:44,400 --> 01:38:47,700 | mature. They're not principle oriented. |
| 712 | 01:38:48,960 --> 01:38:51,510 | They're not dedicated. |
| 713 | 01:38:53,190 --> 01:38:55,260 | And discipline is completely out the window. |
| 714 | 01:38:57,330 --> 01:39:02,130 | And this generation that's coming up right now. They have the most |
| 715 | 01:39:03,960 --> 01:39:06,720 | difficult task of finding themselves. |
| 716 | 01:39:07,800 --> 01:39:17,040 | In the world that we have now. And in this industry, you have so many disadvantages. And that's why I talk the way I talk. Because some of you need a |
| 717 | 01:39:17,040 --> 01:39:17,610 | father. |
| 718 | 01:39:18,690 --> 01:39:19,890 | And guess what? |
| 719 | 01:39:20,940 --> 01:39:27,750 | Daddy's home. And you may not like the things I say. But these things are rooted in real experience. |
| 720 | 01:39:28,800 --> 01:39:39,300 | And when you listen, and you submit to the ideas, you'll get the progress that you're looking for. But if you try to reinvent the wheel and want to send the |
| 721 | 01:39:39,300 --> 01:39:47,070 | emails, I did this, I did this, I did this. And then all of a sudden, Two, Three months later, you start sending me an email saying, I wish I would have |
| 722 | 01:39:47,070 --> 01:39:54,150 | listened. Why you just added three more months to your development that you didn't need because of stubbornness. |
| 723 | 01:39:55,980 --> 01:40:00,000 | I get it. Not everybody is going to believe me. Not everybody is going to have that. |
| 724 | 01:40:00,000 --> 01:40:03,750 | willingness to sit down and put these things to task. I understand that. |
| 725 | 01:40:05,069 --> 01:40:09,629 | I've been hidden and pliant in plain sight on this YouTube platform for years. |
| 726 | 01:40:10,710 --> 01:40:14,730 | And some of you just found me and you're like, man, I can't believe this stuff's out here for free, right? |
| 727 | 01:40:15,900 --> 01:40:19,320 | Because most people that find me don't want to share this information. |
| 728 | 01:40:20,970 --> 01:40:21,900 | But I'm sitting here. |
| 729 | 01:40:23,580 --> 01:40:27,630 | And you'd be surprised who's in my fold all kinds of people. |
| 730 | 01:40:28,950 --> 01:40:38,610 | So, if it wasn't working, if it wasn't real, believe me, nobody would be here trying to learn it. Or they wouldn't be out there trying to rip it off and |
| 731 | 01:40:38,610 --> 01:40:41,670 | replicate it and mimic or imitate it, and they can't |
| 732 | 01:40:45,540 --> 01:40:46,530 | get yourself a journal. |
| 733 | 01:40:48,090 --> 01:41:00,840 | You can do it electronically, or you can do it with hand. But you want to be able to start capturing, and every day study of bias. And you want to have a |
| 734 | 01:41:00,840 --> 01:41:12,930 | record of what you think the bias is going to be for the coming week. And when you do this, what you're saying is, the largest magnitude of movement in price |
| 735 | 01:41:13,200 --> 01:41:22,470 | is going to be predominantly more to the upside, or more to the downside. That's how you want to classify initially, when you're learning how to do bias, you |
| 736 | 01:41:22,470 --> 01:41:32,700 | want to set the tone with the weekly range that the majority of the pips will be seen, on an up move or down move. Okay, you're not trying to forecast the |
| 737 | 01:41:32,700 --> 01:41:44,340 | closing price. And then what you're going to do is you're going to record every single day, on a 15 minute chart, a chart with your annotations, what time of |
| 738 | 01:41:44,340 --> 01:41:51,030 | the day, it made the low what time of the day, it made a high today, and how it worked from the opening and |
| 739 | 01:41:53,550 --> 01:41:57,180 | of this architecture here, relative to it being bullish or bearish. |
| 740 | 01:41:58,230 --> 01:42:05,610 | And you do that, and you don't ever stop doing it until you know what your bias is going to be. And you know how to operate it. |
| 741 | 01:42:06,900 --> 01:42:15,630 | So there you go, how long do I how do I know when I can determine bias, when you no longer have to do that, because you know what you're looking for, it teaches |
| 742 | 01:42:15,630 --> 01:42:16,110 | you that. |
| 743 | 01:42:17,130 --> 01:42:24,510 | That's the drills, that's the things that you have to beat into your subconscious. And you'll see things that you don't understand me talking about |
| 744 | 01:42:24,510 --> 01:42:32,610 | right now. But when you do see it, and you go back to these old age, like he's been saying this stuff this this whole time, and as his head, this mental block, |
| 745 | 01:42:32,610 --> 01:42:34,950 | I couldn't see it. And then all of a sudden, it's like the, |
| 746 | 01:42:36,000 --> 01:42:38,130 | the cataracts come off your eyes, and you can see it. |
| 747 | 01:42:39,360 --> 01:42:49,170 | It sounds silly like that. But it's exactly how it is for everyone. I've been saying the same things all this time. But for some reason, people have these |
| 748 | 01:42:49,170 --> 01:42:54,660 | barriers that they build up. And once they get knocked down because of discovery, in your own studies, |
| 749 | 01:42:55,800 --> 01:43:04,530 | you will finally get it. But I cannot tell you and no one can tell you when it is that you're going to relinquish this hold on your development because you're |
| 750 | 01:43:04,530 --> 01:43:15,720 | doing it. You don't realize you're doing it. But you are. Everybody holds themselves back, everybody. And when you finally let go and just let it happen. |
| 751 | 01:43:16,440 --> 01:43:21,150 | Have fun doing this. If you're not having fun while you're developing, it's going to be longer to |
| 752 | 01:43:22,350 --> 01:43:31,860 | fall in love with the number crunching in the back testing. The people that do well, this are the ones that have been passionate with that side of it. You |
| 753 | 01:43:31,860 --> 01:43:39,630 | might think, Oh, I'm falling in love with hindsight. No, you're falling in love with the process. And then you'll find going forward. It's just the same stuff. |
| 754 | 01:43:40,710 --> 01:43:47,340 | You've seen it enough times. Oh, yes. I've been here before. And then it works on all the time, but most of the time. |
| 755 | 01:43:48,420 --> 01:43:51,240 | So with that, I wish you a very pleasant holiday season. |
| 756 | 01:43:52,650 --> 01:44:02,700 | I'll do my best to try to do a video before the end of the year, but I'm not making any promises. Okay, so please be safe. And for my family to yours. Okay, |
| 757 | 01:44:02,700 --> 01:44:03,300 | Christmas. |