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ICT YT - 2020-09-29 - ICT Forex Trade Review and Losing Trade.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-12 06:29
1 00:00:15,990 --> 00:00:25,800 ICT: Alright, so I'm going long euro dollar here is its trading view platform, it is a non empty for platform just to illustrate execution. And trade
2 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:38,550 management is the one minute chart also. And you're about to see an ICT unicorn is a lot of folks out there will say, ICT never shows you when he loses. Well,
3 00:00:38,580 --> 00:00:52,410 you're going to see this here. And it wasn't me pretending to lose this to do it for stunt me, basically putting my stop too tight. So I'm looking for a move
4 00:00:52,410 --> 00:01:10,680 that take us above that 116 75 area, that'll be my first partial. But just as a spoiler, I do get stopped out on this entry here. I'm using a lot less leverage
5 00:01:11,430 --> 00:01:27,120 than I could use with this hypothetical balance. Because it's a Monday, and I'm not really wanting to trade this direction strongly yet. But for the purpose of
6 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:39,390 execution, I flagged everyone on my community tab, my youtube channel stating that there was an hourly equal highs if you're at least familiar with my
7 00:01:39,390 --> 00:01:50,670 content. And that's basically what I'm going to be aiming for for this trade. But first partial, that means I'm going to take something off should a trade
8 00:01:50,670 --> 00:01:56,070 there and stop loss should be getting tagged here.
9 00:02:02,070 --> 00:02:17,580 Alright, so I got stopped there for a $200 loss. But nothing has changed. Okay, so as I'm looking at price, I'm thinking to myself, well, I didn't have my staff
10 00:02:17,610 --> 00:02:28,380 at the right place I brought up too soon. And I still like the idea of at trading higher and going after those hourly equal highs. So same framework, just
11 00:02:28,470 --> 00:02:41,040 considering every entry. So everything I'm looking at on the chart still is valid. So I'm not concerned about being right or wrong. Okay, that's the one big
12 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:54,570 takeaways from this is not to let your ego or your pride or fear and greed get in the way of taking a trade if it still valid, then it's valid. Gain, you can
13 00:02:54,570 --> 00:03:12,420 see, look at the risk percentage. Once I set the stop, ultra low. And the cynics will watch this and say oh big deal. It's a couple $100 it's not about the
14 00:03:12,420 --> 00:03:22,980 money, it's about the pips. It's about the placement of entry, and management and visibility. Said the markets trading down like this, most retail traders are
15 00:03:22,980 --> 00:03:33,720 thinking Lower, lower lower, and I annotate the chart, expecting it to rally once it's down here, I'll add the execution. So you can see there isn't any real
16 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:46,290 distance between the actual low and where I got in it. And you'll actually see the stop out too, with the little arrows. So with a one minute chart, letting it
17 00:03:46,290 --> 00:03:59,190 tick like this. At this point, I'm expecting it to probably stay consolidated until we get into Asia. And I think the Asia will pump it up over that 1685 1680
18 00:03:59,190 --> 00:03:59,580 level.
19 00:04:07,259 --> 00:04:17,999 This compressing the chart a little bit so that we can see it. And I should be annotating the chart with the executions as you can see them now. And I'll show
20 00:04:17,999 --> 00:04:27,599 you those annotations with you know the cursor going over top of it. So you can see they're not just lipstick added to the chart. But pretty good placement on
21 00:04:27,599 --> 00:04:40,019 the on the entry, even the first entry. But when the move my stop, I should have been able to weather that in the little eyeball icon is just to keep your focus.
22 00:04:40,049 --> 00:04:51,269 That's where I'm focusing my own attention. I think it's going to go above that. So I'm going to set my objective to take something off above that. And I was a
23 00:04:51,269 --> 00:05:02,129 little premature. I thought I was gonna run above that but it didn't. So I'm annotating a run on sellside liquidity and that was a run on stops. Sell stops.
24 00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:08,429 So usually when that happens, it's an indicative characteristic of wanting to go higher.
25 00:05:15,179 --> 00:05:26,969 And you can see I'm annotating my anticipation is in asian session, or it's going to rally up into that area. Okay, came back to the recording it see it's
26 00:05:26,969 --> 00:05:32,609 just underneath the level I'm looking for.
27 00:05:44,670 --> 00:05:53,010 Okay, price runs through just my stop loss, and then I'm gonna take a partial off.
28 00:06:00,450 --> 00:06:16,530 My focus is up there, stop has been trailed up. And I'm going to take something off with it, you can see the execution print as I do it. So this will leave
29 00:06:16,740 --> 00:06:29,760 200,000 left on it, you see all orders coming up on the screen. No empty for trickery. And there's the execution there on a partial
30 00:06:36,899 --> 00:06:37,979 and move my stop.
31 00:06:44,459 --> 00:07:00,029 Okay, at this point in here, I'm thinking to myself, I want to take something else off. But I don't do it. And looking back in hindsight, my processes and
32 00:07:00,359 --> 00:07:11,549 things that I do, while I was looking at this chart live at the moment, I didn't do it, I did not take a partial of I would have taken off 100,000 and left
33 00:07:11,549 --> 00:07:24,599 100,000, I want to maybe run to that target or stop out. But I chose not to do it. So I actually have to take a partial as it's retraced from this high at a
34 00:07:24,599 --> 00:07:33,239 later time, as you'll see in executions. But it did not have the recording going at the time. So it is what it is. But you'll be able to see the executions. And
35 00:07:33,239 --> 00:07:43,049 I'll show you on the chart. But at this very moment. There should have been another partial taken, because it's trading above the high that was formed
36 00:07:43,049 --> 00:07:53,189 between nine o'clock and 10 o'clock in the morning. And above that 116 at level. So that's a really good level to be taking something off. And it's not about
37 00:07:53,189 --> 00:08:06,359 being right, it's not about your target being hit, it's not about a perfect trade entry to perfect trade exit. Many times trades will give you the the
38 00:08:06,359 --> 00:08:15,149 carrot, if you will, dangling in front of you thinking that you're going to get that perfect development of a trade entry and exit. And it just falls short of
39 00:08:15,149 --> 00:08:26,219 it. And having been following the markets as long as I have I've had many instances like that, where it's forced me to do the take early profit, and be
40 00:08:26,219 --> 00:08:36,959 content with that, if I'm looking for 100% of a move, and I get out at 85% of the move. I'm not upset with that no one really should be upset with that. So
41 00:08:36,989 --> 00:08:49,859 you're trying to get out during the meat, okay, or the lions portion of the move, and leaving all of the highs and the very lows to just Well, in this case,
42 00:08:49,859 --> 00:09:00,419 it's ego and pride that's allowed to be used there. Because you're you're using it over the analysis, not the trading. If you incorporate ego and your pride
43 00:09:00,659 --> 00:09:11,939 when the money is attached to it, then it tends to cloud your perception. And you care more about that than you do then of taking sound entry paying yourself
44 00:09:11,939 --> 00:09:21,689 along the way. And just being content with Yes, your analysis said it was going to go right to the laser guided tie of whatever number value that would be. But
45 00:09:21,689 --> 00:09:35,039 getting out before that happens because there's nothing that comes by way of absolute perfection in your execution. Now price might deliver that specific
46 00:09:35,039 --> 00:09:49,229 price level, but it may not trigger your exit. You may have your limit order at that level plus one Pip. And it just denies you. I've had limit orders where
47 00:09:49,229 --> 00:10:00,869 price is actually hit in my limit order didn't activate. So to avoid all of that frustration. Over the years. I've built in protocols that say Okay, I have to be
48 00:10:00,869 --> 00:10:11,399 getting out in the direction of the expected target. And I've grown over the years. In fact, in the last three years or four years, I've grown even more
49 00:10:11,399 --> 00:10:21,839 content with it. Because I struggle with obsessive compulsive disorder. And I have to have things, my way My home is like that everything in my house is
50 00:10:22,799 --> 00:10:38,369 exactly where I want. And if it's moved on now, and I expect an unrealistic superhuman delivery of prowess in myself. So I have higher expectations than any
51 00:10:38,369 --> 00:10:51,029 of you would have of me as an educator or mentor or trader, or whatever. So to compensate and to provide therapy to myself, I've given myself permission to
52 00:10:51,089 --> 00:11:03,149 exit in the direction of my expected targets. That way, my ego, my pride is satisfied, should it trade there, but my bottom line isn't affected by that
53 00:11:03,149 --> 00:11:12,029 transaction of pride and ego, if that makes any sense. If you've ever traded with live money, you'll know what that means. If you've only been in demo, it
54 00:11:12,029 --> 00:11:19,619 really won't register with you. So let's go over to the live charts, and we'll take a look at what's going on and actually outline what I was doing. Alright,
55 00:11:19,619 --> 00:11:29,279 so here's the Euro dollars is our hourly chart. And yesterday on my community tab on the YouTube channel, I prompted everyone to look at the hourly chart, and
56 00:11:29,279 --> 00:11:36,569 I asked them, What do you see this area right over here is where your attention should have been drawn, especially if you're a student of mine, even on this
57 00:11:36,569 --> 00:11:43,619 YouTube channel, not necessarily requiring mentorship level. So when price was trading here, we don't
58 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:55,109 chase price. Okay, during this time of day, okay, this is the new york session. So the market has been rallying straight from the low here at three o'clock in
59 00:11:55,109 --> 00:12:05,969 the morning. So from three o'clock in the morning, it has had no real significant retracements. The heart of New York, open trading is waiting for
60 00:12:05,969 --> 00:12:18,809 some measure of retracement that is preferably in line with the direction that the London session has put in motion. In this case, you can see that London had
61 00:12:18,809 --> 00:12:26,789 been trading higher. So right away, you know, if you've been watching this YouTube channel, if you've watched my optimal trade entry pattern recognition
62 00:12:26,789 --> 00:12:34,319 series, or if you've watched any of my teachings regarding that pattern, which is kind of like the flag ship of this YouTube channel. There's lots of other
63 00:12:34,319 --> 00:12:45,809 things that you can learn here. But that's kind of like the thing everybody comes here for. So if you look at this price swing from the low to this high, as
64 00:12:45,809 --> 00:12:58,169 price starts to decline, we're waiting for to trade into an optimal trade entry. So what is that? Well, it's this pattern here, low to high trades down into the
65 00:12:58,169 --> 00:13:05,279 62% retracement level. And you can actually see all the annotations that were on that one minute chart will drop down into a one minute chart in a moment. But
66 00:13:05,279 --> 00:13:16,709 the market trades down to optimal trade entry and then starts to trade higher. I moved my stop loss off a little too prematurely in last night, as I indicated on
67 00:13:16,709 --> 00:13:26,639 my community tab, I ended up getting stopped out I did not re enter, I just left it alone. So I could have went back in and did another trade. But if I would
68 00:13:26,639 --> 00:13:35,969 have done that, those that are really not interested in following me that are very critical of the things I do and teach or say, will say his ego wouldn't let
69 00:13:35,969 --> 00:13:47,879 him have a day where he took a loss or he got stopped out. And here I am, I'm showing you in perfection, the human side of me where I did it wrong, but having
70 00:13:47,909 --> 00:13:56,969 the analysis, right, that's going to happen a lot, it's going to happen a lot for you as a developing student, but I'm not exempt from it, you're always going
71 00:13:56,969 --> 00:14:06,359 to have that possibility of doing it incorrectly, moving your stop too soon, or entering too soon, not a problem. If everything's still valid, then you just go
72 00:14:06,359 --> 00:14:14,309 back in again. But because I wasn't risking a lot on the trade, I can go right back in with the same amount of leverage, which was very miniscule. Now, let's
73 00:14:14,309 --> 00:14:23,999 say for instance, that I already got stopped out on that first entry with a full maximum, whatever that percentage exposure would be, let's just say the industry
74 00:14:23,999 --> 00:14:35,789 standard, which I believe is too high 2%. Say it was a loss of 2%. And so you have a rule that you don't want to lose more than 3% in any one particular day.
75 00:14:36,029 --> 00:14:46,829 That's a highly speculative model, but let's just say that's the case, then I would have to go back in only leveraging 100,000 or in this case 125,000 half
76 00:14:47,129 --> 00:14:57,059 because the original position was 250,000 which is $25 per Pip. The next trade after getting stopped out it would have been a full maximum loss that would be
77 00:14:57,059 --> 00:15:07,469 one to assume, again assuming that would be 2% You know, didn't even have a half a percent relief of leverage here. That's the reason why I could go back in and
78 00:15:07,469 --> 00:15:16,829 use the same amount of leverage I used when I took the loss. Okay. So that's why it's important for you to understand sound money management and risk management.
79 00:15:17,039 --> 00:15:26,369 And it's not always what's the maximum amount of money, I can risk. Because you're really doing that with the expectation trying to make the maximum profit
80 00:15:26,369 --> 00:15:37,799 return. And that is the trap. You don't want that as long as you keep adding to your bottom line every week, every month, every quarter, the years that go by
81 00:15:37,799 --> 00:15:50,969 that make you a trader. That's all it matters, it will build it will be exponentially growing. But you can't expect 30% returns every single week. You
82 00:15:50,969 --> 00:15:59,759 can. There's so many people out there promoting that idea that Oh, yeah, I'm doing this and I'm doing it. They're not okay. You don't even see them executing
83 00:15:59,759 --> 00:16:10,499 on trading the watch the gentleman yesterday that was showing a mt four account platform to profit, you the open ticket that was open showing their profit and
84 00:16:10,499 --> 00:16:20,249 loss, theoretically, they had it at the top of their chart, and then they were showing a trading view chart, well, why didn't they do the execution and trading
85 00:16:20,249 --> 00:16:32,699 view and then show how that panned out? To me, it just seems like a whole lot of extra work to prove that they did something. After it starts moving, you don't
86 00:16:32,699 --> 00:16:35,669 see them entering. And that's what I'm trying to support
87 00:16:35,969 --> 00:16:45,809 the community with here. When I show you a trade, I'm showing you a trade, I'm showing you an execution, a stop placement, a management of the stop partials
88 00:16:45,809 --> 00:16:54,839 along the way. And if I'm right, it'll go to the target. If I'm not, it'll stop me out. But it doesn't change the fact that I'm executing, I'm putting it to
89 00:16:54,839 --> 00:17:06,899 work, pushing the button. So if that's the case, and we see it happening in trading view, you're seeing real examples from my perception of price at the
90 00:17:06,899 --> 00:17:16,199 time that I prompted everyone through the community tab. Now, that's pretty much how I do mentorship. You know, I outline what I think is going to happen. It's
91 00:17:16,199 --> 00:17:24,569 not a trade signal service. I don't tell you exactly where to get in, I don't tell you where to place your stop loss. But I believe by pointing Okay, like
92 00:17:24,749 --> 00:17:34,769 you're a scout sniper in training, and I am your shooting instructor. So I'm going to point and call down the range and say, Okay, I want you to aim for that
93 00:17:34,769 --> 00:17:45,209 target there. Okay, it's your job to sight up your rifle, scope it up, and then pull the trigger and hit it with the tools and training that you've been exposed
94 00:17:45,209 --> 00:17:53,489 to. If you aren't aiming at the right target or going the opposite direction, you're going to hurt yourself or someone else. Okay. And the other person in
95 00:17:53,489 --> 00:18:06,089 this case is your bottom line. Okay, so to avoid that frustration, as a mentor, I use my almost three decades of experience coaching my students to aim for a
96 00:18:06,089 --> 00:18:18,059 specific level. Now for full disclosure. Before this week started, I was giving the market a willingness to go lower initially, but if it showed no willingness
97 00:18:18,059 --> 00:18:29,519 to go lower than it was going to aim right here. I say this in mentorship. Now what changed my opinion about looking for bearishness, well, this obvious run
98 00:18:29,519 --> 00:18:39,299 here higher. So I don't want to go shorten that. I want to aim for this now. So that was the logic without going into all the great details. So let's drop down
99 00:18:39,299 --> 00:18:47,189 into a one minute chart. And I'll flesh this out a little bit more. But basically, this area here is what I was aiming at. Alright, so here's the one
100 00:18:47,189 --> 00:18:57,059 minute chart. And price was dropping down inside of optimal trade entry right in here. So I'm going to take the fib off, so it's already accomplished its
101 00:18:58,649 --> 00:19:13,109 usefulness and I'm going to add the execution so you can see it. Here's the initial entry. And then where I got stopped down at right there, that's a 200
102 00:19:13,109 --> 00:19:31,259 hour loss. Then I went back in within the next minute. But they're just in case you guys think they're added. I had a guy in about a month ago. He says you're
103 00:19:31,259 --> 00:19:44,669 adding arrows, I can draw the arrows and make them small too. I want you to watch these arrows. Okay. Execution off. execution on, off, on, off on. Okay, so
104 00:19:44,669 --> 00:19:57,389 you can see they're perfectly where they're supposed to be at here. They're not painted. So a call for the rally. They're anticipating maybe a run back into
105 00:19:57,389 --> 00:20:06,089 this level here. Had it been there. I would have commented Seeing if I wasn't already long I would buy there, but it didn't trade down there. But this level
106 00:20:06,089 --> 00:20:18,539 in the chart, it's a run on sell stops. There is my partial. This is the high I wish I would have taken something off at as well but it didn't do it. And I did
107 00:20:18,539 --> 00:20:27,089 it there. Because I was concerned we're going to get a retracement and we got it. So I took 100,000 off there, leaving a balance of 100 which eventually gets
108 00:20:27,089 --> 00:20:38,819 stopped out there. Because I put my stop loss as you saw in the video right below here. I was hoping I was gonna run aggressively above the 85 level during
109 00:20:38,849 --> 00:20:48,929 Asia but it didn't have a deeper retracement. So in a lot of ways I did the right thing here. And I wasn't happy I would have been awake watching it, I
110 00:20:48,929 --> 00:21:01,799 would have been not satisfied at all sitting through this much of a retracement it consolidated, Spike down one more time, and then eventually made a larger
111 00:21:01,799 --> 00:21:16,259 trading range spiked up above. There's a sweep I was calling everybody's attention to yesterday. And then another spike up and finally clearing another
112 00:21:16,259 --> 00:21:32,459 objective, as you saw. So all in all, you saw humanity. I'm human. I can see it forming. And I can see where my entry should be.
113 00:21:33,990 --> 00:21:42,990 In that they're down here. Okay, here, partial should have taken a partial here. Took a partial there. And then this retracement. So no matter how you slice this
114 00:21:42,990 --> 00:21:52,770 in here, I would have gotten stopped out. And if it not there, I would have been stopped out over there. So it is what it is folks, you're not going to be you're
115 00:21:52,770 --> 00:22:01,800 not going to be perfect every single time. And there is no reason for you to be upset, should you miss a full run to a target or more than what you were
116 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:12,990 expecting. There's no reason for that. And you shouldn't be highly critical of yourself in your journal. When you're doing recaps. Like saying I feel stupid, I
117 00:22:12,990 --> 00:22:23,760 missed this. I missed that. There's so many trades that you're going to take the rest of your career. leave room for imperfection. Because imperfection. teaches
118 00:22:24,210 --> 00:22:33,840 it teaches you how to improve upon yourself. Because if you don't make any mistakes, how can you improve? Think. So as you can see, again, nice tight
119 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:45,540 grouping. To me, when I first started, this was a dream, like, I wasn't thinking I would never find entry points like that. And looking back now I can see all
120 00:22:45,540 --> 00:22:52,290 the times where I was emotional, upset with myself feeling I was never going to get it, I was never going to be able to find setups, I was never going to be
121 00:22:52,290 --> 00:23:01,770 able to do it independently without relying on someone else. And that's the reason why I teach the way I teach. I do not can hold everyone in my mentorship
122 00:23:01,770 --> 00:23:12,600 and say, Okay, everybody put your stops here we're buying here, we're targeting there. No, because I teach how to do that. In my lessons, your job is to hit the
123 00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:25,230 targets, I point at using that information using your specific setup that you favor more than all the other ones. And trust me, there are multiple entries in
124 00:23:25,230 --> 00:23:33,810 this price action that could have used not just simply buying on the optimal trade entry. There's other things in this I could have used, it would have been
125 00:23:33,810 --> 00:23:44,490 slightly different entry points, but still same context of reaching for that runnable those relative equal highs on the hourly chart. So hopefully, this has
126 00:23:44,490 --> 00:24:02,100 been inspiring, relieving in a way that, you know, even ICT can take a loss, follow the plan, which is looking for that run on liquidity and the trade still
127 00:24:02,100 --> 00:24:11,850 valid, then take it but don't over leverage every time because if you get it wrong. Are you going to take another trade late in the day like that, because
128 00:24:11,850 --> 00:24:22,920 this is London close. London close is not always the opposite end of the daily range many times it's a continuation to the next day. So if there's something
129 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:33,600 bullish and that's kind of like what I was aiming for, if that's the case, I'm going to go long here in hole through Asia. It doesn't it isn't a day trade then
130 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:43,080 it's potentially a short term trade. And had I had a little bit more conviction behind it. I could have been leaving room for a little bit higher up into the
131 00:24:43,080 --> 00:25:03,480 117 10 117 15 level. What I've been up here no and honestly I would not be holding anything up here long. So as much as it's painful Or deflating or
132 00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:13,650 frustrating for you, if you get stopped out. It's just a transaction. It's the same as paying taxes. When you buy something, you have to pay the sales tax.
133 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:23,760 It's, it comes with the territory. And if you keep vilifying that thing, that's the reason why you're not making money. Well, it's because you're risking too
134 00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:34,920 much in trading too frequently. Or you need to revisit your model altogether. Because if you have a sound price action model, you should not be having more
135 00:25:35,010 --> 00:25:45,540 losing transactions in theory. And then the executions need to come on board with that same thought process. They can't, you can't have everything going
136 00:25:45,540 --> 00:25:53,580 their own direction, and doing a lot more frequently than you should, over leveraging with more money than you should. Because there's no reason for you to
137 00:25:53,580 --> 00:26:05,790 be worrying about taking the next trade. So there you go. He seen a losing trade, you seen the executions, and it isn't a lot of money clearly. But I'm
138 00:26:05,790 --> 00:26:16,200 going to change this and work at a little bit lower leverage pace in my examples, because this was just using an example and running up to a level that
139 00:26:16,500 --> 00:26:25,470 my son needed to see for his development. So it doesn't mean anything. It's all paper money. Don't think that this is sitting in a trading account where I can
140 00:26:25,470 --> 00:26:32,520 go do withdrawals. Okay? I'm 100% transparent, I don't tell you anything that isn't true. And the point is,
141 00:26:34,020 --> 00:26:44,430 you know, what I make or what I don't make is, frankly, none of your business. But if you want to see me execute, you start here. You can see it happening here
142 00:26:44,610 --> 00:26:55,710 is not an MT four platform is not an MT four server. It's trading view. And if you can trade you can trade on trading view, you can execute and people will be
143 00:26:55,710 --> 00:27:08,130 able to see it. And or you can have it it'll be in your your history on your account. But I think that's going to be it for today. And I will talk with you
144 00:27:08,130 --> 00:27:11,040 again on Thursday. Until then, I wish good luck and good trading.