ICT YT - 2020-09-17 - ICT Forex Price Action Lesson - Advanced IPDA Insights.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-12 06:31
1 00:00:16,139 --> 00:00:23,429 ICT: Okay, folks, welcome back. This is going to be a lesson on institutional order flow and secrets of efficient price delivery in forex. Now what I'm gonna
2 00:00:23,429 --> 00:00:31,439 be showing you is the fingerprints of algorithmic signatures. And this is one of those higher order price action lessons that I would only give to a charter
3 00:00:31,439 --> 00:00:31,799 member.
4 00:00:41,490 --> 00:00:53,520 Okay, institutional order flow and secrets of efficient and price delivery in forex. We're gonna be introducing the interbank dealing range, external and
5 00:00:53,520 --> 00:01:09,090 internal range liquidity, weekly power three heirarchy and institutional order flow. How epta interbank price delivery algorithm delivers efficient price and a
6 00:01:09,090 --> 00:01:24,600 weekly low delivery. So when you look at price action, and I school, all my students with the thought process of removing this insatiable need to have
7 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:37,020 indicators on your chart, I'm going to show you why indicators are not required by actually putting on an indicator. So I'm saying this upfront. Okay, I guess
8 00:01:37,020 --> 00:01:46,080 there's people making YouTube videos about me saying that I use indicators, despite me saying I don't believe that anyone should be using indicators. So
9 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:54,360 there's a context, okay, that you have to have. And I'm only gonna be showing this in contrast. So you'll see that the visibility that my concepts and
10 00:01:55,260 --> 00:02:05,130 processes, allow me to see everything before your indicators will show you overbought, oversold, and things of that nature. Alright, so this is kind of
11 00:02:05,490 --> 00:02:15,900 advanced. So if you're new to my work, it's probably going to go over your head in certain parts. For some of you that have been familiar with my YouTube
12 00:02:15,900 --> 00:02:26,220 channel for years, you're going to see some things that my mentorship group is very familiar with. And you're going to see things that you've not been exposed
13 00:02:26,220 --> 00:02:40,830 to anywhere else. This is the actual market. This is how the markets book. This is how the price is created and presented on your charts. It's not patterns.
14 00:02:41,310 --> 00:02:50,340 Okay, it's efficient delivery. And I'll explain that when we get into the chart. So let's do that now. Alright, folks, we are looking at the euro dollar, this is
15 00:02:50,340 --> 00:02:59,910 a 15 minute time frame. And the data that I'm displaying is from the feed that's offered on trading view for forex.com. So that way, if you want to compare and
16 00:02:59,910 --> 00:03:09,330 contrast your own charts, and look at what I'm showing you here, that way, everything will be on the up and up. Right, so I want to look at this segment of
17 00:03:09,330 --> 00:03:20,820 price action. And right away, I already know an anticipate. And it's unreasonable for you to understand where I'm going to draw your attention to.
18 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:33,270 But I'm going to hopefully, pull back the veil a little bit and show you how these algorithms operate and where they reach for for their data. Okay, which is
19 00:03:33,270 --> 00:03:45,150 what I teach is a pdra critical highs and lows, areas of inefficiency, where price needs to most likely go back to and rebalance. And I'll explain what that
20 00:03:45,150 --> 00:03:58,500 is when we get into the video. But looking at this price action, there are specific things that are important. And it's not obvious to traders unless
21 00:03:58,650 --> 00:04:13,260 they're schooled to look for it. And no one out there has ever revealed this before. No one has ever explained how these things occur. They always have these
22 00:04:13,260 --> 00:04:23,610 little pieces of things. And it feels like you've always been in search of that next thing. If I could just figure out that one thing that unlocks everything.
23 00:04:24,510 --> 00:04:37,290 And while this lesson isn't necessarily going to do that, it's going to show you again, I have a very deep cookie jar, okay. The lessons that I have taught
24 00:04:37,350 --> 00:04:48,600 publicly and even in my private mentorship. They're not done. They're nowhere near done. And there's so much more depth to it. So I'm going to kind of bring
25 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:58,680 you into this and even my charter members have not been exposed to this. So I want you to number one, appreciate the fact that my willingness to do this is
26 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:07,650 very chair Okay, so I don't need to do this, I do this simply because I enjoy it. And that's also kind of like a way for me to snub my nose at the folks that
27 00:05:07,650 --> 00:05:10,740 think they know everything because they got a couple videos on the slide.
28 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:18,570 So we're looking at the eurodollar, the 15 minute time frame, and I want to take your attention to this area right over here. Now everyone knows, because of this
29 00:05:18,570 --> 00:05:26,040 YouTube channel, I've made it very public. And everyone has it in their analysis. And that's great. Because that was reason why I shared I want everyone
30 00:05:26,370 --> 00:05:37,500 to learn from it and grow from it. But these relative equal highs, above that there's going to be by side liquidity. And below this area here would be
31 00:05:37,620 --> 00:05:45,960 sellside liquidity. But if you're looking at your chart, and say, This is the chart that you have, at the time, and say this is mark to market right now, real
32 00:05:45,960 --> 00:06:00,000 time, wherever you are in the world, this is what your chart looks like. What do you use to glean any kind of information? Well, I'm going to introduce the
33 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:13,470 interbank dealing range. And what that is, is a specific range, okay. You probably seen even my videos in the past as well, where I'll take a Fibonacci
34 00:06:13,500 --> 00:06:21,060 and I'll lay it over top of a particular price like, or a particular swing low to swing high or a swing high to swing low. And perhaps you've looked at that
35 00:06:21,060 --> 00:06:28,260 and thought, why is he picking that swing and not this swing? And I've had trolls in the past, you know, say, you know, he doesn't know what he's doing.
36 00:06:28,290 --> 00:06:40,320 It's just he's cherry picking. I'm going to show you one of the things that I do. And it's based on how the algorithm refers to old data. Your indicators
37 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:50,910 don't calculate on the basis of this, your school of thought, and retail things that I even studied to folks. Okay, I started in 1992. And I was actually
38 00:06:50,910 --> 00:06:58,860 introduced to technical analysis back when I was 16, which was years before 1992. And my uncle actually was trying to teach me technical analysis back in
39 00:06:58,860 --> 00:07:08,160 1988. And being a young man, I really wasn't all that interested. But I was being exposed to it at that point, overbought, oversold trend lines, and that
40 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:23,880 such so. But in 1992, I formally sat down and began my learning November 5 1992, on a Thursday night at 9pm. So that's one of those moments in my career, I can
41 00:07:23,880 --> 00:07:34,410 look back and say all that started, then that was like my birthday as ICT. None of the books I purchased none the courses I purchased, none of the seminars I
42 00:07:34,470 --> 00:07:44,430 attended. All those things never really got to the heart of what makes price move. Why is it doing what it's doing. And this is one of those lessons to show
43 00:07:44,430 --> 00:07:53,700 you just how much is actually going on behind the scenes that you're never really exposed to. I want you to take a look at this area here where the beisa
44 00:07:53,700 --> 00:08:06,060 liquidity is Do you see how we ran above that with this price run. And now also, can you see how this swing low here that starts this price run was taken out
45 00:08:06,090 --> 00:08:22,140 with this movement here. So we have two reference points. One, this is a run on external range, liquidity that's over here. And this low here is a run on
46 00:08:22,410 --> 00:08:31,560 internal range liquidity. Now while I'm not going to go into great detail about what exactly is internal range and external range liquidity, it's important for
47 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:44,820 you just to understand that I'm calling reference points to this low. And these highs and we have cleared the board if you will, on both side, sell stocks below
48 00:08:44,820 --> 00:08:56,370 this low have been taken out and buy stops above these Highs over here have been taken out with this price run. So that means we have a specific price range. And
49 00:08:56,370 --> 00:09:12,930 I'm going to show you that now. We have this new low and this high with that is is the interbank dealing range high and low. What it specifically draws
50 00:09:12,930 --> 00:09:25,110 attention to is the most recent run on liquidity above the marketplace which is buyside liquidity and below the marketplace which is sell side liquidity. So
51 00:09:25,110 --> 00:09:35,880 once you have arrived at a particular swing that has done both ran buy side and sell side. Now in this instance, you can see how prices ran by side above these
52 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:44,220 relative equal Highs over here. It ran all that buyside liquidity out first then it ran for this area here which below that low would be sell side liquidity. So
53 00:09:44,220 --> 00:09:56,190 in this instance, the macro was run by side first then attack sell side where it could have started running sell side first and then running by side. But you
54 00:09:56,190 --> 00:10:01,800 would use whatever those key highs and lows are that way runs both sides of the marketplace.
55 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:15,180 So, again, it's not important for you to understand this at all, at this point, just know that that's the framework I'm using. I teach an internal range and
56 00:10:15,180 --> 00:10:23,460 external range liquidity and dealing ranges. But it's beyond the scope and time because it takes multiple lessons, but I'm introducing it publicly here. Because
57 00:10:25,050 --> 00:10:32,760 I just want to show you, I just really want to show you something that transcends everything else. Okay, and you'll see the logic, and you'll also
58 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:41,580 start to see some of the things I've made available for free on this YouTube channel, how they plug into this narrative. And it becomes like Swiss timepiece,
59 00:10:41,790 --> 00:10:50,760 it's perfection. Because if these markets are, in fact, rigged, if they're controlled, there's going to be signatures that prove that they are and they're
60 00:10:50,760 --> 00:11:03,240 going to be precise, and they're going to be predictable. They don't have any area of randomness if if you will, okay, so, this area here, in this area here,
61 00:11:03,900 --> 00:11:14,640 I have done, introduced that so both buy side and sell side equity has been purged now this low and this high, that's your range. Okay. So if we scrub over,
62 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:26,370 you can see how we've started to run higher. And once you have that dealing range, okay, the interbank dealing range means that there's going to be a lot of
63 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:39,600 interest in seeing price returned back inside this range to a particular price level. Now, as retail traders were indoctrinated to think in terms of buying
64 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:48,150 when the markets are oversold, and selling short the markets when they're overbought. And right away, you'd look for things and you probably some of you
65 00:11:48,150 --> 00:11:55,050 that are really hot guide, you probably only seen this, they can see he's using indicators the whole time. He's a liar, he's a lie, you're, he's trading
66 00:11:55,050 --> 00:12:09,780 divergence on percent are. I'll bring this up in a second. But we look at price action. In my group in my community, I convey the importance of just reading
67 00:12:09,930 --> 00:12:17,070 price action, because it'll give you overbought, oversold by understanding the ranges that you're trading in. A lot of folks don't realize when you're looking
68 00:12:17,070 --> 00:12:26,340 at overbought oversold indicator or momentum indicators, the mathematics behind that they're just looking at a predetermined range of bars, okay, and then
69 00:12:26,430 --> 00:12:34,590 wherever the highest high and where were lowest lowest, then it plots that and it gives you what we understand in the retail universe is overbought, oversold,
70 00:12:34,770 --> 00:12:46,200 but you don't need that. Okay, so the line that you see here, this orange line, I'm going to outline what that is, if you take the high here that ran the by
71 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:55,860 side liquidity, and then this low here taken out there, that low, between this low and this high, if you'd find the exact midpoint. And the way you can do that
72 00:12:55,860 --> 00:13:06,960 is use a Fibonacci to get a 50% level. That's really the importance of the Fibonacci To me, the 50 level, because at this level, if price goes above it,
73 00:13:07,020 --> 00:13:18,990 while inside this range between this high and this low, we are at a short term overbought scenario. Now, by itself, it doesn't mean anything. If we can draw
74 00:13:18,990 --> 00:13:31,260 some kind of parallel to something in this price leg, when we are above that midpoint, or equilibrium, then it's more salient, it's meaningful, it's
75 00:13:31,260 --> 00:13:40,290 something that we can take action on. Okay, just because we went above that doesn't necessarily mean that there's a setup that I as ICT would take. Now, it
76 00:13:40,290 --> 00:13:50,820 means that we can anticipate some measure of a decline, but that might not necessarily equate to a short. Okay, and I'll explain as we go along. But as we
77 00:13:50,820 --> 00:13:59,610 go further in the price action, we start a new week here. So this is all price action from last week. And Monday's trading starts here. And then we go deeper
78 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:11,220 above this high and deeper in reference to this high, too low, see how much higher we are up here. We aren't going back to this high. All we're trying to do
79 00:14:11,220 --> 00:14:15,810 is look for periods where it trades above this orange line that the darker one
80 00:14:20,700 --> 00:14:26,160 acts I can take this line off as a matter of fact, as already talked about the liquidity pool. So let's take that off. And then we'll probably make it a little
81 00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:36,390 easier for you to follow along. So this was the initial run above the midpoint, okay, and anytime we get above the midpoint of a particular range. The algorithm
82 00:14:36,390 --> 00:14:47,310 sees that as a premium. Okay, and what does that mean? It means that it's too expensive, okay, or approaching expensive. Now, much like in the same idea that
83 00:14:47,310 --> 00:14:56,520 overbought and oversold overbought conditions can stay overbought and the market can still go higher. So don't don't misunderstand what I'm saying here in saying
84 00:14:56,520 --> 00:15:06,810 that whenever we're above the midpoint, that's an easy sign. dunk, overbought or shorting scenario, you have to reference things inside this price like, okay, so
85 00:15:06,810 --> 00:15:17,280 inside this price leg, there are specific things that we look for that if they line up with time and price, not price and Time, time and price, then you'll see
86 00:15:17,310 --> 00:15:31,050 a high probability scenario unfold. You also bring in day of the week. So day of the week is, as I taught even on this YouTube channel, and back in 2010, I
87 00:15:31,050 --> 00:15:40,800 shared it publicly on baby pips, where the algorithm when we are bearish. Now, if this is the first time you've watched the video by me, I promise you, if you
88 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:48,270 go through other videos, you'll hear me discuss this in great detail. It's not being forfeited, it's not cherry picked. And also, if you watch the video, I
89 00:15:48,270 --> 00:15:58,980 think it was five or six days ago, from last week, where I even tell you, there's a particular price level 117 40 was my short term target, on euro
90 00:15:58,980 --> 00:16:06,990 dollar. And if you go and watch that video, if I'm not mistaken, I think it's like a 15 or 20 minute video. So it's not hard to find, but go back. And if I
91 00:16:06,990 --> 00:16:16,740 don't, if I try not to forget, I'll add the link to the video where you can actually hear me talk about 1740 is my short term target. So Ben price is up
92 00:16:16,740 --> 00:16:28,170 here. So while that's a target, we have to have something to provide the catalyst that send price to that particular price level. So we transition from
93 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:38,400 last weekend to new trading week here. And Monday's price action trades up to this level. And we consolidate and then Tuesday, which is what I teach if we are
94 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:47,250 bearish on foreign currency. And I have been bearish and I mentioned this publicly, in the YouTube videos I've been putting out last week, I said that
95 00:16:47,250 --> 00:16:59,940 I'll have a modest bullish stance on dollar and foreign currency lower. And I gave you a particular price level last week. Okay, so I forecasted a very price
96 00:16:59,940 --> 00:17:08,640 level that you see highlighted here on this chart 117 40. And I'll even show you why I use that level. Okay, I'm going to pull back the curtain and show you
97 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:19,830 everything. But I'm on record days in advance, telling you that that's where I think it's going to go. Now I'm going to pull together the things that I have
98 00:17:19,830 --> 00:17:29,490 taught some where in this library of YouTube videos I have, I don't know exactly where I have everything. Because I've done a lot of videos and I've packed my
99 00:17:29,490 --> 00:17:41,640 hair does not know where I have them. But that's taught. But I teach that when we're bearish, there is a 70% likelihood that the high of the week will form on
100 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:52,530 Tuesday. If it doesn't form on Tuesday, it will occur on Wednesday. But if it does form on Tuesday, you'll still get a very strong sell on Wednesday as well.
101 00:17:53,220 --> 00:18:05,130 So your focus should be where is price drawing to where's where's the next draw on liquidity? Okay, if we're bearish, and this was the range that we've outlined
102 00:18:05,130 --> 00:18:13,680 here, and this is what I'm teaching you how I interpreted price action going into this week for euro dollar, then if we're bearish and we anticipate a run
103 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:23,310 below this low, it's going to leave that dealing range. Because it's already done its work here on by side. And if you subscribe to the same view I was
104 00:18:23,310 --> 00:18:33,300 holding for weeks now that there's a modest not extremely strong but a modest bullish stance to dollar. If dollar goes up, there's a more likelihood that the
105 00:18:33,300 --> 00:18:43,500 foreign currency markets will drop. Okay, that's the normal Evan flow. So if we look at the relationship of that range from high to low, and now incorporate
106 00:18:43,500 --> 00:18:56,880 days of the week, here we have Tuesday, Tuesday, we started Monday late and then crossed over into Tuesday. And then as the market makes it's run above this
107 00:18:56,910 --> 00:19:08,190 level right in here. Okay, this level here is an hourly candle signature. And it's a rejection block. You're
108 00:19:08,370 --> 00:19:19,860 teaching mentorship, Michael No, I'm demonstrating my creations. I have the right to do so. And it still won't help you. You have to have me teaching you
109 00:19:19,860 --> 00:19:33,030 using it ahead and enjoying you hot plugs and play mentorship videos is not the same thing as you have my entire mentorship. I'm not even we're near done. But
110 00:19:33,030 --> 00:19:42,390 because you may have this in your notes or you see it in other people's charts. They don't know everything about these things. It's just a new thing. It's a new
111 00:19:42,900 --> 00:19:54,750 pattern. It's a new harmonic animal. It's a new gimmick Okay, it but nobody else but me knows this stuff. And it's it's important you understand that? But if we
112 00:19:54,750 --> 00:20:03,930 take a look at how price runs above, and I'll show you exactly what this is what makes that a rejection. As we zoom out, and I'll show you why the 1740 level is
113 00:20:03,930 --> 00:20:15,750 important too. But we are now looking at two things. We're trading at a particular price level, which is a 16 minute rejection block. And day of the
114 00:20:15,750 --> 00:20:28,140 week is Tuesday, while price is expected to go lower in foreign currency, and dollar higher, okay, well feet, scribbling over here.
115 00:20:34,530 --> 00:20:44,910 price goes up on Tuesday, traced the rejection block, and look how far we are above that orange line. Again, that's equilibrium. So anything above this line
116 00:20:44,910 --> 00:20:52,830 is a premium. So that's where your high probability shorts are going to occur. But you have to have it in reference to a specific price range. This is the
117 00:20:52,830 --> 00:21:02,010 interbank price range, right here. This is the dealing range in which the algorithm is going to work within it doesn't need to go up above this high here,
118 00:21:02,010 --> 00:21:14,970 because it's already done. So. So the last time it ran liquidity in this range was taking out sellside. So what it'll do is it'll create short term highs to do
119 00:21:14,970 --> 00:21:25,620 what every time it creates a short term high and starts starts to trade down, traders will go short, and they'll put one above this level, new buy stops to
120 00:21:25,620 --> 00:21:34,920 protect their shorts. So willing buyers have orders resting above this high in the market trades above that what's what's actually happening. They're
121 00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:43,620 accumulating short positions, who is the interbank traders, you don't see them. They're not on CNBC, they don't write books. Okay, but that's what's occurring
122 00:21:44,220 --> 00:21:52,140 above this high. They're shorting they're selling to those buy stocks being activated. These individuals that were sung short, they're now neutralized,
123 00:21:52,140 --> 00:22:02,190 they're no longer in the market. But their order was Counterparty to interbank traders that now hold a short position. Same thing, the market drops down, the
124 00:22:02,190 --> 00:22:12,930 algorithm delivers a small little decline, what starts to build above here, more by side liquidity by stops, because now this one failed, but this one really is
125 00:22:13,380 --> 00:22:20,490 the high in the marketplace. So they can go short. The market trades down a little bit, give them that little cookie, or they chase it down here and they
126 00:22:20,490 --> 00:22:29,160 put their stop loss above here, what kind of stop by stop. The market runs above that on Tuesday, takes that buys out liquidity out. And interbank traders sell
127 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:38,580 short to those buy stops. So now they have built in a bank of selling in here. And in here. Now this is when it gets interesting because now this is the day
128 00:22:38,580 --> 00:22:48,420 that we got teach and have taught publicly, that the higher the week when we're bearish will form 70% of the time on Tuesday. What's the high the week so far?
129 00:22:49,410 --> 00:23:09,150 Tuesday. So the market trades lower now It leaves all of this price action right here by breaking down. So this high, this low. And this high here. On Tuesday, I
130 00:23:09,150 --> 00:23:16,440 taught you how to look at market structure and how to validate these breaks in market structure so you can trade with them. When the market trades below here,
131 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:28,590 when we start seeing go back above this midpoint or equilibrium, this is the Wednesday selling opportunity. Remember, the weekly profile is likely to trade
132 00:23:28,590 --> 00:23:38,160 lower. Okay, so weekly power three is we open make the higher the week on Tuesday and then start trading lower into Wednesday, Thursday or Friday to
133 00:23:38,250 --> 00:23:51,720 attack a low to make the low of the week. The low the week, I even told you last week was 117 40. That's my target. I'm looking for Euro to go to 117 14. putting
134 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:59,850 all this together when we broke down on Tuesday. Look at this area here that looks like a bear flag. It goes down a little bit gets everyone thinking it's
135 00:23:59,850 --> 00:24:15,510 gonna go lower, and then Rams it right back up into the breaker trades on Wednesday, again, London session, then it cascades lower, then every rally from
136 00:24:15,510 --> 00:24:25,410 that point one, it's only going to rally to a point of inefficiency. And what does that mean? Let me take this level off because now we've already used it and
137 00:24:25,410 --> 00:24:35,850 it's accomplished a method already so we don't need to reference it anymore. And I'm going to zoom in. Now on Wednesday when the market starts to really start to
138 00:24:35,850 --> 00:24:48,540 take off and go lower every time the market creates a little small gap in price now think for a moment okay. The ideal scenario is dollars bullish foreign
139 00:24:48,540 --> 00:24:58,080 currencies bearish. We have now made a high or potential high the week on Tuesday and Wednesday it's selling off. So we can trust that this is likely to
140 00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:07,560 draw down to our objective which is 117 40 I promise I'm going to show you why 1740 but for now just follow along, every time that the market gets ahead of
141 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:19,530 itself and trades quick, with large ranges, or in this case, on my chart, I have a down candle as a Black Candle. It creates a little pocket where one particular
142 00:25:19,530 --> 00:25:33,150 candle, okay, only has the black range on one candle, that one singular area, okay, that is a fair value got. That's my creation, that's mine.
143 00:25:34,890 --> 00:25:48,540 That little area in price action, is if you just understand that little piece of the puzzle, within a narrative. You don't ever need a job again, you do not need
144 00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:59,910 to work for your money. You have to have a bias. Are you bullish or bearish? Okay, if you're bullish, how high? Is it going to go up? What's it reaching for?
145 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:09,120 It may not get right to that level. But if it's as long as it's drawn towards that level, and wherever the market is, there's range of potential pips that
146 00:26:09,120 --> 00:26:17,340 could be harvested in there. Again, your setups are not always about getting to the target. It's as long as it's moving in that direction. You can bank
147 00:26:17,340 --> 00:26:25,740 something along the way, and you can feel the heat hit your targets, but you still profit it. So it's about making money when you're wrong. If you're
148 00:26:25,740 --> 00:26:34,860 bearish, same thing you're looking for, where's the market likely to draw to? I told you all last week 117 40 on euro dollar. So now we start a new trading
149 00:26:34,860 --> 00:26:46,680 week. Do we throw away everything I've always said about the weekly range? No. If I'm telling you that I'm modestly bullish on dollar, and I'm bearish on euro
150 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:56,190 and I think it's gonna go to 117 40. without really saying it, what does that really say? That I should be looking at reasons for the eurodollar to go lower.
151 00:26:56,280 --> 00:27:04,200 Okay. So if you've studied this YouTube channel, that means what makes the market go lower? And what does it usually look like? Okay, well, we got to start
152 00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:11,670 a new week. It trades up mix the high the week on Tuesday. Okay, if you missed the high of the week on Tuesday, forming Wednesday's your next opportunity,
153 00:27:11,670 --> 00:27:20,610 that's what you're seeing here is Wednesday's trading. Now watch what happens. This strong break here below these lows, that one singular candle right there
154 00:27:20,610 --> 00:27:36,720 creates a fair value gap. What is that? Let's use the blocks here. This low of this upclose candle here, and the high of this down closed candle right there.
155 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:50,640 That's a fair value, got the market trades right back up and rebalances all the down candle, the Black Candle, Okay, I'm gonna take this box, because it's going
156 00:27:50,640 --> 00:28:00,870 to get in my way, and it's going to drive me nuts. It's probably driving you nuts too. But. And in fact, let's zoom in to because I really want you to see
157 00:28:00,870 --> 00:28:19,350 what I'm showing you here. So all of this Black Candle from the low and the high of this candle here. This is the area that it needs to rebalance. Okay, so if
158 00:28:19,350 --> 00:28:30,900 you want to know how efficient price action is, the market trades up into it trades all of this down movement. In other words, think of it like a paint
159 00:28:30,900 --> 00:28:38,850 roller. Okay, you're ready to paint your wall in your home, you get your paint roll, you put it in the pan, collect a lot of paint on it. And you apply the
160 00:28:38,850 --> 00:28:47,040 roller to your wall and you stroke up or you stroke down depending on whatever direction you go forth first, and it'll roll out evenly real thick, ample
161 00:28:47,460 --> 00:28:55,500 delivery of paint. And if you keep rolling enough, eventually you'll start seeing little pockets. Well, imagine that paint roller here starting and it's
162 00:28:55,500 --> 00:29:03,060 starting to go down. Okay? And then this is one little pockets. So if you see that, what are you going to do with the paint roller, he's gonna leave like
163 00:29:03,060 --> 00:29:16,830 that. No, you're gonna roll back up to fill in that little area. That's what's going on. Every price range in forex in any other market for real needs to be
164 00:29:16,830 --> 00:29:30,240 efficiently traded to okay. And if you ever studied auction theory, this is the real version of that because auction theory is just part of it. When markets
165 00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:38,730 deliver on the downside, to efficiently deliver that price between the high this candle and the little this candle, there's an imbalance from the previous
166 00:29:38,730 --> 00:29:47,250 candles low and the next candle is high. It only went down between this candles low in this candle high it went down. Notice that that's what I'm highlighting
167 00:29:47,250 --> 00:29:58,080 here. So going in the future at some point, the markets gonna go back up and offer buy side delivery. So this is sell side delivery, where the markets going
168 00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:07,800 down for that range. Between this candles low and this candles high to be efficiently delivered, the algorithm has to go up between this candles high and
169 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:16,260 this candles low. And it does. So there. Once that occurs, this becomes a balanced price range. What does that mean? It's balanced, it's not imbalanced,
170 00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:25,470 it doesn't need to go any higher than that it can, as you can see a little bit here. But that's the, that's the heirarchy of order flow, you have to understand
171 00:30:25,470 --> 00:30:28,530 how if a market has delivered an up candle,
172 00:30:29,789 --> 00:30:40,259 at some point in the future, it needs to come back down through that same range to offer sell side and vice versa. So this in itself could be a target or in
173 00:30:40,259 --> 00:30:52,109 this case, it could be an entry strategy. So you could go short here and anticipate price going lower. Very, very similar thing happening here. And we
174 00:30:52,109 --> 00:31:01,889 have a low and a high. And the market goes right back up into and delivers all this downside, it gets it by side again. And it rebalances then what happens in
175 00:31:01,889 --> 00:31:21,059 price. It trades lower until we get to what FOMC to FOMC nonsense at two o'clock in the afternoon goes back and forth whips around. That's normal, because it's
176 00:31:21,059 --> 00:31:27,959 clearing both sides of the marketplace. It's clearing the stops above the short term high and it's clearing the stuff below the short term low. So everything
177 00:31:28,019 --> 00:31:36,869 has been cleared. So now, no one on the short term is holding a position, they would have to have their stop way back here. And in the market starts to do what
178 00:31:36,959 --> 00:31:49,799 it creates its downdraft, again, because what is in play, lower currencies, higher dollar. So we see it again, we have a low and a high rate in here.
179 00:31:50,819 --> 00:31:58,379 There's an imbalance, that's a fair value gap. So Southside delivery has been offered. So in this candle, it goes right back up inside the pocket of this high
180 00:31:58,379 --> 00:32:10,199 in this low. That right there is another shorting opportunity, you can get short there, you can place a stop loss above here and walk away the market trades back
181 00:32:10,229 --> 00:32:23,639 up trades deeper into this area, not by much above that. But you can see all we to the point of this candle here and you can appreciate it. But this is where if
182 00:32:23,639 --> 00:32:34,949 you take the trades using this, you can suffer some time delay, and a little bit of drawdown. Like for instance, he sold short here, you'd have a little bit of
183 00:32:34,949 --> 00:32:41,909 drawdown on this candle, this candle this candle, this candle might get excited a little bit, they're thinking it's going to finally break but it goes all the
184 00:32:41,909 --> 00:32:52,379 way up to this level here doesn't completely fill it in yet. And then finally gives up the ghost and trades lower, you see that. So all of this area here
185 00:32:52,739 --> 00:33:03,119 doesn't quite get filled, but then it breaks this low. When it does that, that's indicating that this right here is a really strong indication that we're going
186 00:33:03,119 --> 00:33:14,879 lower, and it's probably not going to come back up to this price level, we're going to probably see much more pronounced delivery on the downside. And scrunch
187 00:33:14,879 --> 00:33:26,969 this up. Market creates another run below this low here. So we have this low. And this high. So what's actually happening here, same thing prices going back
188 00:33:26,969 --> 00:33:35,429 up into this candle. Now here's a real gem, okay, this low
189 00:33:41,010 --> 00:33:56,910 and this high price has went down, gone up. And then down to this price point right there, you see that. So all of this is a balanced price range market has
190 00:33:56,910 --> 00:34:06,780 been delivered on the downside, then it's delivered on the upside, and it's down again. So when the market trades back up here, it's not listen, folks, this is
191 00:34:06,780 --> 00:34:17,250 really important. It is not support broken term resistance. That's what's going on here. That's not what that's not what happens. If you're looking for key
192 00:34:17,250 --> 00:34:28,230 support resistance levels. If you have this signature here, where it breaks through it then comes back that point where it does that then yes, your support
193 00:34:28,230 --> 00:34:35,790 resistance theories will work there. But whenever it doesn't have this and you're trying to find a old low and you're looking for it to be broken, and
194 00:34:35,790 --> 00:34:44,790 you're looking for resistance. It's not going to work unless it has this. Okay, it's not going to happen. So don't worry what I mean by that if it starts to go
195 00:34:44,790 --> 00:34:52,470 a little bit lower stops here and then starts another little candle here and goes a little bit lower and go lower. I would go back in the 90s and I would say
196 00:34:52,470 --> 00:35:00,480 okay, this is a support broken turn resistance and I would try to sell short and either it never went back up there or if it did, it went right on back up inside
197 00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:07,590 the range, and I would lose. And I would walk away thinking this support resistance stuff doesn't work. For support resistance to work, it needs to have
198 00:35:07,590 --> 00:35:17,310 this little signature right there. Okay? It's an overshoot through that old low, after it has shown a bounce price range. And again, a bounce price range is
199 00:35:17,310 --> 00:35:30,570 where price delivers on the downside, and the upside. So what do I mean by that? The market has offered time and delivery on the downside. So anyone that wants
200 00:35:30,570 --> 00:35:38,550 to sell with that movement, they had opportunity to do so. But what about the buyers didn't really get a real good chance to buy at their, at their price
201 00:35:38,550 --> 00:35:48,150 levels. So the market goes up, and allows that to take effect. Okay, but what's going on there, as this markets been going higher, anyone who wants to sell
202 00:35:48,150 --> 00:35:56,940 below these lows on a break, they haven't had the opportunity to do so because the market keeps going up? Well, they been now given that opportunity here. See,
203 00:35:57,510 --> 00:36:06,900 that delivery of price is bounced back and forth. It's not buying and selling pressure, folks, it's not it's absolutely not. All of this is a narrative within
204 00:36:06,900 --> 00:36:16,170 the context of the market trading to that 117 40 level that I told you last week about on YouTube, it's public, I can't edit the video once it goes on your
205 00:36:16,170 --> 00:36:27,510 server. So right here, we have an opportunity to sell off and now the market starts to cascade again lower. Here you have a Bear Flag looking at classic
206 00:36:27,510 --> 00:36:43,470 chart pattern and right into what price level is that 117 40. Now to get 117 40 it's got to go a little bit below that right. What's the low 117 37. There's
207 00:36:43,470 --> 00:36:53,160 your spread. So what happened after it treated there? Did it rocket through that dilly dally around?
208 00:36:59,070 --> 00:37:10,680 off to the races. Now, you know about this level last week, you knew about the weekly highs and the lows forming on Tuesday 70% of the time, if it's bearish,
209 00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:28,320 it's going to create the high of the week on Tuesday. If you look at this chart here, and really take in what this outlined, it's really hard to argue against
210 00:37:28,380 --> 00:37:39,360 these markets being manipulated. 100% controlled, absolutely predictable, certainly. Rejection but let's go to our chart.
211 00:37:45,750 --> 00:37:57,330 Highest up close. That's what I'm highlighting there. It trades to that. And then rejects breaks this swing low. This is a breaker getting ready here. And
212 00:37:57,330 --> 00:38:06,540 it's also your point of reference for market structure being broken. Bam. And then the narrative starts goes right to the level I told you it's going to go to
213 00:38:07,050 --> 00:38:21,510 now Why 117 40? Let's go back over here. All the way back here. See all these lows? What's resting below that? I'm gonna go back and see these lows, these
214 00:38:21,510 --> 00:38:38,910 lows, the lows, these lows. All of them have been referenced points for trailed stop losses, what kind of stops, sell stops. Right in here. You see a series of
215 00:38:38,940 --> 00:38:48,630 down close candles that starts your bullish order block. There's a small little price action segment right in here. That's a gap. That's that fair value gap?
216 00:38:48,990 --> 00:39:06,120 You're trying to tell me? No, I'm telling you. I told you last week 117 40. That's the basis. So if we go to a four hour chart, what's this candle here?
217 00:39:06,450 --> 00:39:16,380 That's the last down closed candle before this move up. This last down close candles high comes in at 117 41 and three pipettes. So if it's going to reach
218 00:39:16,380 --> 00:39:29,580 down in here, I'm going to round it to the nearest round 10 level 117 40. We have liquidity below here. And here. And I'm BAM we tag through it. And there's
219 00:39:29,580 --> 00:39:41,610 your run. They're predictable. I'm on record even with my mentorship group that I was looking for that run. We were looking for that last week as well. So but
220 00:39:41,610 --> 00:39:54,150 you have to have the market provide all those things with time. First. That's day of week time of day and within a narrative, which is what bearish foreign
221 00:39:54,150 --> 00:40:05,490 currency bullish dollar in the market will give you what you're looking for. But you can't just simply say, every upclose cannon for the down, move every down,
222 00:40:05,490 --> 00:40:11,460 closed down for up move. And that's all you got to do. Now, there's internal range liquidity, and there's external range liquidity that helps you frame a
223 00:40:11,460 --> 00:40:20,130 narrative. And that's what mentorship is with me. It's me guiding you through almost three decades of experience, and things that I haven't even put out in
224 00:40:20,130 --> 00:40:29,370 video lessons yet, because they have to be introduced gradually, not because I'm dangling a carrot, not because I'm teasing, not because I'm making it impossible
225 00:40:29,370 --> 00:40:39,090 for anyone to ever learn it. There's so many things, there's so many things that you need to know. Because these algorithms, they're highly, highly technical.
226 00:40:39,900 --> 00:40:53,550 And there's many macros that they go into. And you have to know specific things to see what they will do at certain conditions in the marketplace. So I'm not
227 00:40:53,550 --> 00:41:06,870 sure what you took from this, but it is absolutely what I teach. And I want to go back into that 15 minute timeframe. Animals scrub up here a little bit like
228 00:41:06,870 --> 00:41:09,090 that. add annotations back.
229 00:41:15,060 --> 00:41:23,730 Okay, and now I'm going to pull up the overbought oversold indicator. Now when I was trading in back in the 90s, Larry Williams was my hero. And in fact, he
230 00:41:23,730 --> 00:41:32,700 really still is. He was my original mentor, even though I was really introduced to trading by my uncle didn't really learn anything really from him, obviously,
231 00:41:32,700 --> 00:41:42,150 not to be disrespectful. But he, he put it in my ear, but I really wasn't interested back when I was 16. But in 1982, the first mentor I had was Ken
232 00:41:42,150 --> 00:41:53,910 Roberts, and I lost money. So I have to give credit, because that course that I purchased put me on a mailing list for Larry Williams material. And then that
233 00:41:53,910 --> 00:42:01,860 was my real mentor. Because the things I learned from Larry actually made money. It went into my account, whereas the first trade I took with the things I
234 00:42:01,860 --> 00:42:12,270 learned from Ken Roberts, 50% of my money was taken in the first trade overnight with an orange juice option. So you all heard the story before. Anyway, I like
235 00:42:12,930 --> 00:42:21,150 the idea of a percent are still if I had to talk about a overbought oversold indicator if I was going to do that, this would be the one I would use because
236 00:42:21,180 --> 00:42:31,380 it's it makes sense to me. But if you look at the percent are we're overbought, because we're above the midpoint of this area here. This should be overbought
237 00:42:31,380 --> 00:42:42,900 reading and percent art. It is this should be overbought, it is this should be overbought, it is this should be overbought, it is I don't need an indicator to
238 00:42:42,900 --> 00:42:52,410 tell me wherever bought, because I'm looking at the range that matters most. And then clearly, within that context and a narrative that I'm bearish, Euro bullish
239 00:42:52,410 --> 00:43:04,230 dollar, I have a target, where's it going to draw to 117 40? You knew it last week. On Thursday's video, of last week, I talked about it. I said that's beyond
240 00:43:04,230 --> 00:43:13,770 the scope of this discussion, because I was teaching you this price run here and down into the market maker sell model. But that's not a short term trade, that's
241 00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:23,760 a day trade, a short term trade, we have to use this high. And this low because now we have a new dealing range. So the market trades up into that range here
242 00:43:23,790 --> 00:43:34,770 not taking the high out. It's just moving into a deeper premium. And then what happens the algorithm on Tuesday sets the high the week. Pam seeks to lower the
243 00:43:34,770 --> 00:43:45,240 week that I gave you last week. That was my target. We've been looking for that. Okay, traded to it. Now, what can happen from here? Well, let's take this off
244 00:43:45,240 --> 00:43:57,630 real quick. It could very easily trade on higher and take these highs out and maybe even go up above this. It could do that. I don't care. When I say I'm
245 00:43:57,630 --> 00:44:06,570 looking for the weekly high and the low. Sometimes it is the actual highest high and lowest low of the week. But look at the reaction if you're short. Okay, so
246 00:44:06,570 --> 00:44:18,120 you short here. Do you feel comfortable writing and all we back that far? If you do, God bless you. That's that's real conviction. I'm not interested in
247 00:44:18,120 --> 00:44:29,550 something like that. So if I'm trying to get short here or up in here, I'm aiming for this. And once it hits that I'm done, why? Why not hope for more ICT,
248 00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:42,240 I thought you were real guru. Well, this is the target I'm looking for. And this is likely to occur once it gets to that level. That's why I want 117 40 because
249 00:44:42,240 --> 00:44:50,520 I don't want to ride this out, because the more it keeps going higher, the more likely it is the trade against the liquidity above here. And now these equal
250 00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:59,430 highs. And then if it goes above here then unwinds the whole narrative that I use to build the context around that 117 40 level. So let's get this a lot
251 00:44:59,430 --> 00:45:12,180 because this is Last week, and looking at, again, price action like this naked, it feels like it's it's noise, it's chaos. But everything in here has a reason
252 00:45:12,210 --> 00:45:21,540 for it occurring. And I teach this. This is not this is not a new introduction, nothing new I gave was defining the interbank feeling range, and what makes it
253 00:45:21,540 --> 00:45:31,500 such. And in summary, you want to look at where the most recent dealing range has traded? Did it take out by liquidity to take outside liquidity? It needs,
254 00:45:31,500 --> 00:45:42,750 you need to find those two most recent day markers. And once you know that, that's your current dealing range on the interbank level. For any timeframe, any
255 00:45:42,750 --> 00:45:54,240 timeframe. Okay, using a 15 minute timeframe. That's like my bellwether, I can find a lot of setups with a 15 minute chart. And if you use an hourly chart,
256 00:45:54,420 --> 00:46:00,840 you'll come up with a different dealing range. So don't think well what happens if I look at the four hour chart, and then that doesn't look like it does this
257 00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:08,490 and you trade, the timeframe that you're looking at? This is the timeframe I used. The narrative was already in motion,
258 00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:20,220 modest higher prices and dollar lower foreign currency prices. And this is her dealing range. Okay, so you use last week's information to tell you what this
259 00:46:20,220 --> 00:46:30,330 week's got to do. And this weekly profile, I haven't shared that publicly. bearish week, okay, Tuesday's high of The Week, 75 of time, and you can get a
260 00:46:30,330 --> 00:46:43,740 really good sell signal on Wednesday. There you go. Folks, listen. I hate to sound like I'm twisting everyone's arm. Okay, but I get a plethora of emails
261 00:46:43,770 --> 00:46:53,520 from people that say the markets are not manipulated, you're talking wise, there is no algorithm, there's this than this, this? Listen, I'm only going to provide
262 00:46:53,520 --> 00:47:00,630 the evidence. you wrestle with that, because you're not going to convince me because this is what I used to call the markets. This is what I do to engage
263 00:47:00,630 --> 00:47:12,720 price. This is how I call the targets. Find the logic of anything I'm showing you here and anywhere else. It doesn't exist. It does not exist. Because this is
264 00:47:13,770 --> 00:47:23,970 self reliant. It's stands on its own. I don't need to defend. That's why I tell everybody go through my videos, and then wrestle with it. Because you're either
265 00:47:23,970 --> 00:47:34,590 gonna walk away thinking this is too much work. Okay, great. You didn't debunk it. Or you're gonna say, Oh, my goodness. This is exactly what's going on Hello,
266 00:47:34,620 --> 00:47:48,330 conversion. And that's all it takes to stick your foot in this web, and you'll never get out of it alive. Period. Once you see it, you cannot unsee it and
267 00:47:48,330 --> 00:47:56,190 every week, every day, and it won't stop. Until next time, I wish good luck and good trading.