ICT YT - 2018-01-24 - ICT January 24 2018.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-12-22 08:37
1 00:00:11,759 --> 00:00:19,139 ICT: Okay, folks, good afternoon, we're taking a look at the Dollar Index, this is a weekly chart. And I want you to take a look at where we are reaching down
2 00:00:19,139 --> 00:00:31,799 into, we have another objective below us at 8880. And ultimately, I think we're gonna probably see at 70, maybe 8750. If we can continue to see this dollar
3 00:00:31,799 --> 00:00:40,049 weakness, and I'm gonna scroll over here, you can see where I got this information from. You can see this is a down close candle on a weekly chart is
4 00:00:40,049 --> 00:00:51,809 it the only down closed candle in the range that's caused from this high, all the way down to this low here. The next area of concern is this down close
5 00:00:52,919 --> 00:01:05,669 candle here, which is a bullish order block. And I'm noting basically the open on this candle comes in at exactly at 936. And I'm delineating at 935. I'm using
6 00:01:05,669 --> 00:01:18,569 the equilibrium price point as our next objective, which happens to be the ad level. So add the next downside objective for the dollar index. Let's drop into
7 00:01:18,569 --> 00:01:28,049 a daily chart and get some perspective on it. So we're gonna do a daily chart. And we had a breakdown, as we're expecting on the dollar index, we're targeting
8 00:01:28,049 --> 00:01:41,159 this old low here, price to come back up retested, as I mentioned in one of my sessions, the dollar index 91 would be a potential retest for another round of
9 00:01:41,159 --> 00:01:52,079 selling. And we did in fact, get that so we've pierced the opening of that weekly bullish order block. We're inside the order block now. So come in daily
10 00:01:52,079 --> 00:02:03,029 capacity, we're just really about 40 pips or so away from that mean threshold on the bullish order block from the weekly chart. So that will be our next downside
11 00:02:03,029 --> 00:02:15,659 objectives should things accelerate now we'll be looking for 8787 50. But it may require some retracements and such. Now, if the dollar has been bearish as we've
12 00:02:15,659 --> 00:02:26,459 been referring to it, that's going to be complimentary for buy signals in the foreign currencies, ie the euro dollar. So let's take a look at the Euro net
13 00:02:26,459 --> 00:02:34,769 case. So we'd see the euros as an hourly chart. I'm using this one because this is the last chart I shared with you on Twitter. And I'm just highlighting the
14 00:02:34,769 --> 00:02:44,669 idea that a run below these lows in here. Also optimal trade entry. This would give us the wrong one, the sell stops. And I made a notation that cell cells
15 00:02:44,669 --> 00:02:53,879 have been cleared. And now any of the long positions would be viewed. From an institutional standpoint, smart money now is long. So I put that in tweets. And
16 00:02:53,879 --> 00:03:05,189 in charts, you guys can see all that on my Twitter. And I had all these levels here outlined. And I use this as a day trade. Okay, from a swing trade
17 00:03:05,189 --> 00:03:16,979 standpoint, you could have used this entry here or any of these in here, or as a short term trader, we add the daily delineations. You can see here we have now
18 00:03:17,309 --> 00:03:26,759 waiting for Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, remember has the highest probability for the weekly range to be formed. From a low standpoint, if we're looking for a
19 00:03:26,759 --> 00:03:36,269 long, we have Monday and Tuesday in here this week. And now we have an extrapolated move on the upside. One of the things that I wanted to have you pay
20 00:03:36,269 --> 00:03:48,359 attention to is I use a lot of the headlines that go into a really strong directional sentiment, in the words of an analyst or a talking head of some
21 00:03:48,359 --> 00:03:58,979 kind, you know, in media start basically implying that there has to be an expectation the market going to go one way or the other. I immediately look to
22 00:03:58,979 --> 00:04:10,229 fade that and it complements my analysis if I'm already contrarian. So I feel strongly then I gave a couple examples of that with the euro dollar. You can see
23 00:04:10,229 --> 00:04:22,829 prices very easily broke above the run on this old high. The idea I wanted to present to you and I said this is a study for your there was an analyst from one
24 00:04:22,829 --> 00:04:34,979 of the well known forex websites and they stated that it was a classic textbook sell scenario, or sell signal for euro dollar. And I went right in there and
25 00:04:34,979 --> 00:04:46,349 stepped in front of it with the idea that it's a buy and not to you sound smarter, okay, but I'm just saying that that's usually what happens. You blend a
26 00:04:46,349 --> 00:04:54,839 little bit of the news elements, but I use news as a sentiment gauge only I don't. I don't like to go along with news. I like to see things in the chart,
27 00:04:55,289 --> 00:05:06,749 implying that either bullish or bearish and if I can get a contract an opposing view from retail analysts, then just makes me feel much stronger in really just
28 00:05:06,749 --> 00:05:08,609 pushing me over the edge in terms of confidence.
29 00:05:09,060 --> 00:05:15,210 And that's the reason why I shared this with you guys publicly, because there was a lot of build up to an expectation that the euro dollar was going to go
30 00:05:15,210 --> 00:05:24,720 lower, completely oblivious to the fact that the dollar has been careening lower in a landslide that's going to be bullish for foreign currencies without a
31 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:36,420 doubt. And we've seen this as an example here. So several 100 pips was offered here, for a scenario going long. On the euro dollar, let's go over to the
32 00:05:36,690 --> 00:05:46,620 British pound. Okay, so we're looking at the British councils and hourly chart again. And I want you to think about the significance of that 138 65 level. And
33 00:05:46,620 --> 00:05:55,320 again, that's a weekly level. And I'll show you again, why that's been referenced here. But it's not being cherry picked for this video, because we
34 00:05:55,320 --> 00:06:06,120 talked about it in previous commentary and videos as well. But 138 65 happens to be a weekly low, an old weekly low, we looked for it as an upside objective, it
35 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:14,220 traded through it, and then we worked around it. Okay, now notice that the range in here and look closely, you can see here, I'm measuring the range, the highest
36 00:06:14,250 --> 00:06:24,330 open or close to lowest open or close in this consolidation, equilibrium price point is right in here. And you can see that we work below it above it, around
37 00:06:24,330 --> 00:06:33,660 it in here and finally snapped away. The real telltale sign was that it was a weekly objective to work for as an outside objective. And then there was orders
38 00:06:33,690 --> 00:06:41,100 starting to accumulate in here, a lot of folks that wanted to sell short thinking it was going to be resistance, it was basically used as a point of
39 00:06:41,100 --> 00:06:47,760 accumulation. And we had an optimal trade entry in here, I won't draw that on here, you guys can do that with your Fibonacci, use the lowest open or close to
40 00:06:47,760 --> 00:07:00,540 the highest open, open or close rather, and an overlap of the 138 65 level. And old higher timeframe key level, we also have a smaller optimal trade entry in
41 00:07:00,540 --> 00:07:10,500 here, you can use this little small point here. And then we have price move away targeting in a run through these equal highs. But now it's not going to be a run
42 00:07:10,500 --> 00:07:19,170 of all these equal highs and then rejection or a complete reversal, because the market is what predisposed to go higher on the British pound. Why? Because we
43 00:07:19,170 --> 00:07:29,640 are extremely bearish on the dollar index. So that's going to provide lift, okay, or ease of rallying for cable. So what you're gonna be looking for is
44 00:07:29,790 --> 00:07:39,360 reference points in terms of ICT concepts to promote support ideas. Okay, so let's take a look at a few of them, I want you to take a look at the swing here,
45 00:07:40,170 --> 00:07:47,970 and swing here. Okay, so if we look at that reference point right there, right away, your eye should notice and identify it as an optimal trade entry. So we're
46 00:07:47,970 --> 00:07:56,370 gonna use the lowest open and close here, up to the highest open or close, boom, perfect optimal trade entry long rallies through comes back. And it gives you an
47 00:07:56,370 --> 00:08:07,470 optimal trade entry here, open or close, whichever is lowest here, to the highest open or close on these two reference points. And I'll just move this
48 00:08:07,470 --> 00:08:16,980 over here. You guys can see that. And we can see that right away. We have again, another optimal trade entry at 60% retracement level, and an acceleration on the
49 00:08:16,980 --> 00:08:29,970 upside. So right now we're looking for the next objective is basically 142 88 142 85 in that area based on this recent price swing, if we add the daily
50 00:08:29,970 --> 00:08:36,840 delineations as well, you can see how we had a Monday by right on that higher timeframe key level and again, we're looking for bullish prices. So that means
51 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:46,470 the weekly expansion is going to be on the upside and onwards to the weekly range should go up, get the bulk of the body should be bullish. That means we're
52 00:08:46,470 --> 00:08:57,120 gonna be looking to go long on Monday, Tuesday or by Wednesday's New York open. So in this scenario, again, classic ICT scenario, weekly range expansion, boom,
53 00:08:57,180 --> 00:09:09,360 nails activity. Everything in here, okay? It's complemented, also by the fact that we have a breaker. Okay, so we have this high here, running down to this
54 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:21,390 low here. And we have what, we have a swing low back here. Okay, this swing low is violated here. So what did they do with this high here, they drove price down
55 00:09:21,390 --> 00:09:29,310 sort of aggressively to take out the stops here. When price rally through it came back down, cut through some candles because we don't teach supply and
56 00:09:29,310 --> 00:09:40,260 demand. We're not online trading Academy. We cut through those candles right over to this right here. So now, this is a real support level because the
57 00:09:40,260 --> 00:09:49,350 context behind it suggests that they did all the dirty work of running the stops out to go higher. They're gonna come back down and recapitalize this level for
58 00:09:49,350 --> 00:09:59,970 buying. And I'll show you what that looks like. I'll take the rectangle here. We're going to highlight this whole range of the bodies of the two boards.
59 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:08,070 candles dried out in time. Right there. There.
60 00:10:08,579 --> 00:10:18,749 So now we go right down to the middle of that, okay, equilibrium or mean threshold or the bullish ice breaker gets it accumulation again, on top of an
61 00:10:18,749 --> 00:10:29,009 ICT optimal trade entry. Boom, really, really strong. And what day of the week is it occurring? Hello, Tuesday, and we had a really expensive extrapolated move
62 00:10:29,009 --> 00:10:37,949 on the upside. So what's this blue line here? Okay, this happens to be a bearish order block. So let's go to a higher timeframe, I'll show you what that looks
63 00:10:37,949 --> 00:10:46,229 like, and where it came from. Okay, you see, here's the weekly cable chart for Japan versus US dollar in the last upclose candle right before the Brexit
64 00:10:46,829 --> 00:10:57,179 eurycoma row, the open on this candle, we're going to be looking at a price of 141 91. That's what that price level is. And as you can see it that's exactly
65 00:10:57,209 --> 00:11:07,469 what I'm trying to delineate there. For whatever reason it jumped around, but 141 91 was the level. So if we're looking at 141 91, and we're coming up to at
66 00:11:07,469 --> 00:11:17,069 141 90 would be the level for 142. Big figure. And if we run through that big finger memory for bullish, it could potentially run 20 pips or 30 pips through
67 00:11:17,069 --> 00:11:29,399 it. So what's the level 4230 in today's high happens to come in at 4263. So we went well through well above that. But now we have the middle of the range on
68 00:11:29,399 --> 00:11:37,439 this bullish candle, which is a bearish order block. And it's probably confusing for some of you folks that are new. But I cover all this stuff in my tutorials
69 00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:53,039 and nauseum in the mentorship. So if we go through this level, we can now add the mean threshold of this bearish order block from the weekly Okay, so we're
70 00:11:53,039 --> 00:12:04,529 looking for that potential upside 143 80. Okay, so there's the next objective for continuation on basis of a weaker dollar stronger cable market. And again,
71 00:12:04,619 --> 00:12:17,219 all based on our bullish weekly, overbought this candle, we're here, what set the tone, small little range in here, big expansion hits the order block, big,
72 00:12:17,219 --> 00:12:27,629 big powerful move, folks, this is what makes big, big returns, looking for these types of setups, it's going to take a lot of patience to wait for these to form.
73 00:12:27,899 --> 00:12:35,399 But when they do form, it gives you a lot of context, you can actually start day trading in that same directional premise as well and do very well. So hopefully
74 00:12:35,399 --> 00:12:44,309 this has been insightful to you guys. I'm gonna break here and wish you all a very pleasant week. And for those that are entering the mentorship, I can't wait
75 00:12:44,309 --> 00:12:47,519 to work with you. And until next time, I wish you good luck and good trading.