ICT Charter PAM - Algorithmic Theory
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-02-09 09:35
Outline
00:01 - Using Fibonacci expansion tool in HIPAA analysis.
- ICT demonstrates how to use an expansion tool to analyze search metrics for a specific date range in the Asian range.
- ICT plots Fibonacci expansion tool on high, double-clicks and drags it back down to level.
04:49 - Using Fibonacci retracement and expansion for trading.
- ICT discusses deviations in standard deviations based on model number five's criteria.
- ICT explains how to use Fibonacci retracement and expansion tools to identify potential price levels for a trade.
- Trader identifies key levels and potential profit targets in a currency pair, using a combination of price action and time elements.
12:18 - Technical analysis and trading strategies in the currency market.
- Analyze charts for overlaps and liquidity using 1020/30 pip expanses.
- Trader identifies key levels of support and resistance based on chart analysis.
- Analyzes daily dividers and volume to project price movements.
19:26 - Calibrating levels for potential price movements.
- Icalibrate the range to 9555, rounding up to the nearest five or zero level, as price is below the 9553 level and wants to sweep above it.
- Look for stop sweeps of 1020 and 30 pips above 9555, as the expectation is to reach for stops at that level.
- ICT uses calibrated levels and standard deviations to identify potential trade opportunities.
25:30 - Market reversal profiles and order blocks.
- Mentorship teaches potential market reversal at New York open on Thursday, with confluence of levels and phenomena.
- ICT analyzes the dollar index's reversal and anticipates potential stops for the coming week.
- ICT identifies equal highs and a potential gap in the price action.
32:50 - Using order blocks for intraday trading.
- ICT identifies a potential gap in the market and analyzes price action to determine potential entry points.
- ICT explains the importance of analyzing order blocks and their relationship to the open, low, and high of a candle.
- ICT highlights the significance of identifying when an order block has its mean threshold violated but doesn't go below the low of the waterblock, as this can lead to a potential buying opportunity.
- ICT is looking for a short setup that takes out the daily low, with a target of at least 2 standard deviations below the high-low range.
- Using the flout and Fibonacci retracement levels, ICT aims to identify confluence points for the short setup, with a focus on two days' worth of Confluence.
40:28 - Using precision elements in trading.
- ICT measures high to low and determines 50% level, then drops FIB from that to get smaller standard deviations.
- ICT looks for key turning points and sell setups with a bearish bias, aiming for a run below a low and anticipating an important high in London.
- Identify precise entry and exit points using confluence of factors in the New York kill zone.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of precision in trading, citing the need to measure whips and bodies to identify confluences and make informed decisions.
- ICT encourages traders to study their previous moves and back test their ideas to improve precision and appreciation for market pricing over time.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:01 --> 00:00:20 | ICT: Okay, folks, we're gonna give an example the advanced HIPAA concepts or whatever in model number five, the first one to look at how's your expansion |
| 2 | 00:00:20 --> 00:00:40 | tool? Okay, it's gonna plot this here for a second. Click on the tabs, I can see it now I'm gonna go through this rather brief, you can watch the video over and |
| 3 | 00:00:40 --> 00:00:40 | pause |
| 4 | 00:00:45 --> 00:01:07 | it's pretty straightforward. Okay, there's the settings Alright, and let's take this off. Now we're going to assume that we're running our numbers on the rules |
| 5 | 00:01:07 --> 00:01:11 | I gave you in model number five |
| 6 | 00:01:25 --> 00:01:43 | so we have two days here, delineating the search by dealers range and Asian range and the entire range for flat. So what we're going to do is draw our range |
| 7 | 00:01:43 --> 00:01:44 | highs and lows |
| 8 | 00:01:53 --> 00:02:15 | Okay, and this is our search Meteos range for the 20th of June in the Asian range let's see what that low is. Low is 1/5 teen 58 That's what this level is |
| 9 | 00:02:15 --> 00:02:16 | going to be. |
| 10 | 00:02:35 --> 00:02:39 | And the HI 123 ad one |
| 11 | 00:02:48 --> 00:03:04 | nailed it perfectly. Okay, so we have 115 at one and a low of 115 58. So we're over 20 pips there. So we definitely meet the criteria for the range for using |
| 12 | 00:03:04 --> 00:03:18 | the Asian range. So we don't need to go to the flout central bank dealers range. This high comes in at 1585. Saying what this high, here's a 15, a five and the |
| 13 | 00:03:18 --> 00:03:32 | low coming in at 1571. So we do not get our 15 pips for central bank dealers range, so we have to elect to go with the Asian range. Okay, so we're going to |
| 14 | 00:03:32 --> 00:03:50 | plot our Fibonacci expansion tool. Okay, so you can see how this is done. You want to go all the way which is the farthest left point, okay. drop our fib on |
| 15 | 00:03:50 --> 00:04:02 | it, draw it up to the highest point. And you're gonna see this little thing here. Okay, this tab, you're gonna double click on it to highlight and it's kind |
| 16 | 00:04:02 --> 00:04:15 | of hard to see. But I'm going to drag that right back down on to the level you just drew away from. Okay. Once it's there, you drop it and leave it alone. Now, |
| 17 | 00:04:16 --> 00:04:36 | you had to make sure that this is actually on the high. Okay, and it's a little bit of a finesse thing. Right there. Next, C is dropping on the high. So we'll |
| 18 | 00:04:36 --> 00:04:57 | have our level rate there is the same as actually snapping to the high right there. Okay. So now we have our standard deviations based on model number five's |
| 19 | 00:04:57 --> 00:05:10 | criteria, age and range 20 pips or more 15 pips or more for the central bank deals range which was 14 pips here so we're one pip short, so we elect to use |
| 20 | 00:05:10 --> 00:05:24 | the Asian range. And now that projected on the upside and same thing we do in reverse. So now again, start all we'll do for this left point, drop it down |
| 21 | 00:05:27 --> 00:05:42 | okay, and then you're going to grab that same range and drag it right back up to the high. Okay, so we have a standard deviation here, off by one or two pips |
| 22 | 00:05:42 --> 00:05:58 | here, it's good, it's fine. It's not important. But we have our deviations. Now watch what happens when we do the same thing on the very next day borrow one of |
| 23 | 00:05:58 --> 00:06:13 | these lines here copy it and drag it over here. So we have our central bank dealers range that makes sure it get this high here it's a little bit higher |
| 24 | 00:06:28 --> 00:06:34 | Okay, and then we will copy that to here |
| 25 | 00:06:40 --> 00:06:56 | right away, you could see we're less than 15 pips Allah coming at 1601 1614 So we're under our threshold for utilizing the central ideal is range for this |
| 26 | 00:06:56 --> 00:07:11 | particular day. And the high on this candle here for Asian range is 1618 and the low coming in at 1601. Again, same thing. We're short on the 20 pips |
| 27 | 00:07:11 --> 00:07:31 | requirements. But for completeness sake, we're just gonna have the range to when needed here right there, okay. So now when we have to use the flout this is what |
| 28 | 00:07:31 --> 00:07:40 | you can use the central bank dealers range tool calibrated for using the Fibonacci expansion tool for this purpose. You're going to first take your |
| 29 | 00:07:40 --> 00:07:49 | standard fib retracement and you put it on the high and the low of the entire flower |
| 30 | 00:07:54 --> 00:07:55 | okay |
| 31 | 00:08:11 --> 00:08:21 | okay, and what you're looking for is to midpoint equilibrium, okay, because what you're gonna do is you're going to drop your Fibonacci expansion tool on this |
| 32 | 00:08:21 --> 00:08:31 | particular level here and drag it up to here because what you're doing is you're measuring the flower in 50% grades sobo grabbing our fib. Again, expansion tool. |
| 33 | 00:08:33 --> 00:08:54 | We're dropping it anchoring off of this vertical line here delineating zero 100. Rent drive our hit up to that high here and we're gonna grab the midpoint level |
| 34 | 00:08:55 --> 00:09:08 | to take expansion total users and we're a drop it right on top, that equilibrium price point. Right there. There. Okay, so now it gives us a standard deviation. |
| 35 | 00:09:10 --> 00:09:22 | And we have to make sure again, it's lined up with the high right there. Okay. So now what we have is we have two days doing the calibration based on model |
| 36 | 00:09:22 --> 00:09:32 | number 515 pips central bank dealers arrangement on doesn't do it with good Asian range 20 pips or more. If it doesn't do it, then we used a flower. In this |
| 37 | 00:09:32 --> 00:09:53 | case we have to use flower. If we take the stand deviations here you can see how seven and four are very close to one another. What price level is it? 116 73 |
| 38 | 00:09:54 --> 00:10:11 | Okay, so that's what we're looking for. Now, in this day here, all this Let's take the central bank deals range levels off for clarity in this fit to Okay, |
| 39 | 00:10:11 --> 00:10:26 | and see this swing high here right in here price rallies through that we will use our expansion ideas in terms of looking for sweeps on stops by 1020 and 30 |
| 40 | 00:10:26 --> 00:10:41 | pips the highest 116 39 to 10 pips above that will be 1649 20 pips will be 1659 and 1669 will be 30 pips and then we have another swing high see this see that |
| 41 | 00:10:41 --> 00:10:59 | we have a high, lower high lower high to the high above this is 116 42 so grades of 1020 and 30 extreme would be 1672 Okay 60 And 70 We have an expansion and |
| 42 | 00:10:59 --> 00:11:16 | projecting 116 73 And we have a swing high with expansion running for liquidity for in this extreme every 30 pips we're looking for 116 72 So 116 70 to 116 73 |
| 43 | 00:11:17 --> 00:11:26 | with these levels here, also blending time, okay, the high that it hits, on this candle here |
| 44 | 00:11:32 --> 00:11:51 | is the beginning of London Open kill zone we have a high of 1673. So we're off by one pip based on the expansion and this high comes in at the, towards the end |
| 45 | 00:11:51 --> 00:12:05 | of the London Open kill zone by 15 pips it goes to 1676. Okay, so we're off by three pips projection there. And it's also just outside of the kill zone by 15 |
| 46 | 00:12:05 --> 00:12:21 | pips nonetheless, we see that there is a great deal of precision, blending the element of time, price, and Epta. We're doing all these ideas here. And blending |
| 47 | 00:12:21 --> 00:12:32 | to projections and looking for confluences between two specific days back to back, using the criteria I gave you in module number five, okay, when we see |
| 48 | 00:12:32 --> 00:12:42 | elements of overlapping with time kill zones, and then we're looking for the expansion overlaps like we're doing here, you get a lot of symmetry and you get |
| 49 | 00:12:42 --> 00:12:56 | precision. Okay, so my request for you tonight is go through your charts and look through to about a month's worth of your dollar or cable. Okay, and come up |
| 50 | 00:12:56 --> 00:13:06 | with your own discoveries as far as what was an overlap, what was the criteria, but also keep in mind that we're always using that 1020 30 pips sweeps, for |
| 51 | 00:13:06 --> 00:13:15 | liquidity. So price is expanding every time we find a short term high, always on a 15 minute timeframe. That's our Bellwether chart. Look for overlaps of running |
| 52 | 00:13:15 --> 00:13:26 | liquidity because we have this old high back here, price does expand through it. But that a creates new in the same day that we're trading new swing highs. So |
| 53 | 00:13:26 --> 00:13:35 | every time it's a new swing high and the expectation is we're reaching higher. Always do your math on 1020 and 30. expanses, because that's the grade that if |
| 54 | 00:13:35 --> 00:13:45 | there's going to be we're reaching for for liquidity purposes, do some study, do your homework, you can pick whatever pair you want, but do at least one full |
| 55 | 00:13:45 --> 00:13:55 | month. That means Monday through Friday on four weeks worth of data and find what you can see in terms of the overlaps and you'll see right away that is in |
| 56 | 00:13:55 --> 00:14:05 | fact doing these very things and moving very methodically. Okay, folks, good afternoon. So we're looking at the dollar index here. Obviously, it's very nice |
| 57 | 00:14:05 --> 00:14:16 | to see price action being delivered as we anticipated going into this week. We're watching the order block in here that we calibrated to 9430 as a low end. |
| 58 | 00:14:17 --> 00:14:31 | In fairness, I was giving you a range T 9440 and 9430 went down to a low of 9429 If I'm not mistaken here it is on this candle |
| 59 | 00:14:37 --> 00:14:56 | 9429 And we're looking for a run above the equal highs in here. Okay, so that comes in at 9553 and it's pop up here I have a knife knife, too with a high |
| 60 | 00:14:56 --> 00:15:12 | coincident 9553 and Indy 553. Okay, I want to talk about the effects of how the dollar index, when we have a condition like this, I got a lot of emails from you |
| 61 | 00:15:12 --> 00:15:24 | guys that are in the Machado membership. Asking what it is I did specifically to get those numbers we saw this week that we're really, really sensitive and |
| 62 | 00:15:24 --> 00:15:36 | accurate. So it's a result of the things that you see on the chart. Now, obviously, the PD arrays and using the if the data ranges. So having an idea in |
| 63 | 00:15:36 --> 00:15:47 | terms of watching the market in this scale, like we're looking for the 20 day range, the high and low, obviously, we targeted the buy stops. And we said if we |
| 64 | 00:15:47 --> 00:16:00 | lost the low in here, mean threshold, if you will, to sell stocks will be targeted for the weak. And then we were aiming for this. Initially, we were |
| 65 | 00:16:00 --> 00:16:11 | watching the 9430 to 9440 level for sensitivity relative to the bullish order block in here. And I mentioned because of all of us wicks, we would not |
| 66 | 00:16:11 --> 00:16:22 | necessarily require and we'd be better if the dollar was unwilling to go to the mean threshold of this down close candle or voter bloc, which was the reason why |
| 67 | 00:16:22 --> 00:16:31 | if we saw the mean threshold broken on the downside, then we would be bearish looking for the Sell Stop liquidity runs, especially to the equal lows here. |
| 68 | 00:16:31 --> 00:16:45 | Okay. So I gave you the context and give you the framework as to which what side of the market we're going to work on the level of 9565 Give me a couple things |
| 69 | 00:16:45 --> 00:16:57 | today, that led to my picking that level, okay, obviously, it goes without saying it's above the equal highs at 9553. Again, it's relative to these two |
| 70 | 00:16:57 --> 00:17:13 | highs here. But I want to drop down into a 15 minute timeframe. And kind of like flesh out the dollar index with this move in mind here, so let's go to 15 minute |
| 71 | 00:17:13 --> 00:17:31 | chart. Okay, so we have our chart here with equal highs. So we know prior to the run up in here, this is going to be a very clear area of manipulation, how to |
| 72 | 00:17:31 --> 00:17:49 | run those stops. So we're gonna put a little bit of a delineation here. Okay, so we know that we want to see a run above these equal highs. Okay, so we're using |
| 73 | 00:17:50 --> 00:18:06 | just a round number 9540. And we have to incorporate our higher timeframe 9553 level, I couldn't have done it any better. Drop it right on there. And we're |
| 74 | 00:18:06 --> 00:18:19 | gonna put our daily dividers. Okay, so we know there's going to be a run above these equal highs by itself. That's enough. We also anticipate a run above the |
| 75 | 00:18:19 --> 00:18:31 | daily highs that made the equal highs 9583 As I've just shown you on the daily chart soon, how do we get to 9565 we're going to incorporate a couple of things |
| 76 | 00:18:31 --> 00:18:50 | here. I want you to know, look at the daily dividers here with our 20 and four, which is going to be our midnight and beginning point for central bank dealers |
| 77 | 00:18:50 --> 00:19:04 | range. Okay, so inside that range, I want you to focus on these two price points because those price points seem at this body's high and this body's low. Okay, |
| 78 | 00:19:04 --> 00:19:18 | because we're focusing on the volume, okay? This is the lowest open or close and highest open our close in the range. Okay, so we're using that to frame out our |
| 79 | 00:19:20 --> 00:19:39 | standard deviations and intraday projections. So we have our 9583 level on. We have 9540 as shown here, so we're looking for several reasons to go above 9545 |
| 80 | 00:19:39 --> 00:19:54 | equal highs from the 18th. Then we have the 9553 equal highs on the daily chart and also anticipating that run off of the 9430 low anticipated for the dollars |
| 81 | 00:19:55 --> 00:20:17 | price range relative to its weekly chart We look at the projection of 9565 to actually comes to 25 pips above the 9540 equal highs. So it's not a range sweep |
| 82 | 00:20:17 --> 00:20:30 | of 1020 or 30 pips above the equal highs at 9540. But think about this for a second and kind of because this is how I did it. If we know that the equal highs |
| 83 | 00:20:30 --> 00:20:40 | on the daily are likely to be swept, okay, and price is below that level here. Okay, so as we entered into the 19th of July, we're looking for a reason to go |
| 84 | 00:20:40 --> 00:20:54 | up to sweep a level that is defined at 9553 relative to the Forex Ltd demo account. Okay. So if the expectation is that we're going to go above that 9553 |
| 85 | 00:20:54 --> 00:21:14 | level, what can we do for calibration? Do we use the 9550 level, which would be below it? Or do we round up to 9555 or 9560? Well, if we're below price, and we |
| 86 | 00:21:14 --> 00:21:24 | anticipate price wanting to sweep above it, then it's natural for us. If we're looking for price to want to make a run above that 9553 level, then it's natural |
| 87 | 00:21:24 --> 00:21:39 | for us to want to take that level and round it up to the nearest five or zero level, in this case would be 9555. Okay, so at 9555. Now we have our level that |
| 88 | 00:21:39 --> 00:21:51 | it should reach for, why are we rounding it up? Because I know sometimes I teach that you want to round down to get to the objectives. Not down in the sense that |
| 89 | 00:21:51 --> 00:21:59 | a directional but in terms of the range, we're gonna go to the smallest potential range, but if we're gonna be running highs, okay, you want to be |
| 90 | 00:21:59 --> 00:22:10 | looking for the potential swing, that will go above it. In this case, we had 9583. So my thinking was, well, if it's going to go up to 9583 with the |
| 91 | 00:22:10 --> 00:22:22 | expectation we're going to reach for stops, then I'm just gonna calibrate my range to 9555 as you see here, then we can start looking for stop sweeps of 1020 |
| 92 | 00:22:22 --> 00:22:40 | and 30 pips above that wall above 9555 What's 10 pips above that? 9565 Okay, now you basically five attempt PIP run above this high. So if we take that |
| 93 | 00:22:48 --> 00:23:01 | get the actual high of the day at 9565. Now, that was what I was anticipating in here. Okay, as we were running up, I was watching these equal highs, but because |
| 94 | 00:23:01 --> 00:23:12 | we have the daily equal highs delineated with 9583 that we now calibrate to 9555 because the expectation is, we're reaching above it. Okay, so for completeness |
| 95 | 00:23:12 --> 00:23:25 | sake, if we were in a bearish scenario, and we're looking at say, for instance, a level of 9497 Okay, and we were above price and we're reaching for it to go |
| 96 | 00:23:25 --> 00:23:39 | lower anticipate a sweep, what would we use in that regard? 9495 Okay, because it's going to be a reach below. So basically calibrator level to nears five or |
| 97 | 00:23:39 --> 00:23:52 | zero level. In that case, we'll give you the opposite end of how we can use this or the different different side of the continuum, if you will. So so we have |
| 98 | 00:23:52 --> 00:24:00 | these levels and here is the delineated with these arrows. So now I'm going to incorporate is the |
| 99 | 00:24:11 --> 00:24:29 | intraday standard deviations, and using the range as explained in the mentorship and you can see how we go up to 9565. Standard Deviation of four. And if the |
| 100 | 00:24:29 --> 00:24:43 | data range high of day, beautiful delivery, perfect right on the mark. Okay. We also have the run of 10 pips above a calibrated level relative to the daily |
| 101 | 00:24:43 --> 00:24:56 | chart, which was 9555 from 9583. So again, expectation is we were looking to reach above it, so we calibrate our level up. Okay. Now if we are looking for a |
| 102 | 00:24:56 --> 00:25:08 | trade, and we're long and we want to exit, then we would run On down for our level of exit, okay, the bulk of our position would be taken off early by |
| 103 | 00:25:08 --> 00:25:18 | rounding down. And when we're looking for a run on stops, we always expand the range because the nature of that characteristic in a stop sweep is it reaches |
| 104 | 00:25:18 --> 00:25:31 | above an old high or reaches below an old low. Can I see how to expand the range in that regard? So with the IP to date ranges, expanding up, okay. And the time |
| 105 | 00:25:31 --> 00:25:45 | of day. In here we have the New York open. With day, the week is the 19th of July. Give you a little bit of help. Thursday. Okay, we have Thursday, right |
| 106 | 00:25:45 --> 00:25:58 | here to Thursday, in a bullish week. It's gone up. So Thursday, New York session, what does the mentorship teach you that there's probably going to be a |
| 107 | 00:25:58 --> 00:26:12 | reversal at the New York open. I think that pretty much happened on Thursday. And we wouldn't run for the equal lows here. On the 18th, we swept those, and we |
| 108 | 00:26:12 --> 00:26:35 | went to consolidation. Okay, and if we go into our notes for the 19th, as well. For adding that, you can see we have the ELLIPTA projection on the low of the |
| 109 | 00:26:35 --> 00:26:50 | day, seeing here. Okay. And again, we're using the range defined by highest body and lowest body and projecting that down, and we get our levels, as seen here. |
| 110 | 00:26:51 --> 00:27:07 | Okay, so we have several confluences as taught by the mentorship and especially Price Action Model number five. Also notice that because of the precision of |
| 111 | 00:27:07 --> 00:27:23 | this, we have the 19th New York open, we have that level coupled with the Thursday, Day of day of the week phenomenon. So we're anticipating a potential |
| 112 | 00:27:23 --> 00:27:37 | market reversal profile in New York. Exactly 10 pips above 9585 which is a calibrated daily level calibrated from 95 to 83. We have that overlapping with |
| 113 | 00:27:39 --> 00:27:48 | our standard deviation of four. Okay, so we have that and you're probably looking at this over here because I'm doing both don't two of them in there. |
| 114 | 00:27:49 --> 00:28:00 | Reason why I'm doing two because I want you to see the overlap of using the high and the low here on two different measurements. So you can see there's |
| 115 | 00:28:00 --> 00:28:13 | absolutely zero funny business there's no making it fit type thing and plus I shared it on Twitter I put it on so everyone saw it there was no excuse not to |
| 116 | 00:28:13 --> 00:28:27 | see it. We also saw the as the dollar index ran into this high we anticipated a potential reversal as outlined in the mentorship commentary for Monday of this |
| 117 | 00:28:27 --> 00:28:39 | past week. And we got it Okay, so that came to fruition as shown on the daily chart here beautifully delivered. So at this moment, we're gonna be looking for |
| 118 | 00:28:39 --> 00:28:52 | a random cell stops here and below here for the coming week. Okay, if I want to go to the cable okay and we have a virgin chart here nothing want to completely |
| 119 | 00:28:52 --> 00:29:08 | naked and I'll add the daily dividers in here. Okay, we have the low formed on cable at the New York open again market reversal profile |
| 120 | 00:29:16 --> 00:29:33 | Okay, so we have our standard deviation overlaid on the cable and we have our level reading here. Line beautifully with our low of the day |
| 121 | 00:29:40 --> 00:29:41 | rate |
| 122 | 00:29:46 --> 00:30:08 | their perfect delivery. The low on this particular candle comes in at 2959 Standard Deviation projection price as a recent reaction comes back down into |
| 123 | 00:30:08 --> 00:30:17 | consolidation, and zooming right in here, okay? And we're gonna look at something in here. And we're talking about order blocks, new, calibrating |
| 124 | 00:30:17 --> 00:30:27 | bullish order blocks and like with everything I'm gonna say you reverse for bears waterblocks. But before I do it, the A quick glance of the projections on |
| 125 | 00:30:27 --> 00:30:48 | the upside, okay? We have relatively equal highs in here, see that? Very flat price action, the high comes in at 3118. Okay, 3118. And a run above that would |
| 126 | 00:30:48 --> 00:30:58 | be reasonable. Okay, so while we're down here, going into the new day, we also have the equal highs here, as I shared on Twitter. So this is why I shared on |
| 127 | 00:30:58 --> 00:31:13 | Twitter publicly, then we have this level over here. And they also have a very, very, very small, little gap in here. And we also have a gap in here. Okay, see |
| 128 | 00:31:13 --> 00:31:14 | that, let me zoom in. |
| 129 | 00:31:23 --> 00:31:31 | Right in here, notice this candle, we went up, closed, we gapped up went up a little bit, made a small little body name was open and straight down. So there |
| 130 | 00:31:31 --> 00:31:42 | was really no price action to providing up candle in here. We just had a bunch of wick. Okay, now watch this one up at this level one. |
| 131 | 00:31:52 --> 00:32:06 | Right there in the Hi. I'm trying to open rather open on candles 131 41 exactly where it's laying at now. So we'll have our chart. Surprise, when we zoom in |
| 132 | 00:32:06 --> 00:32:16 | here, in this order block down close candles prior to this big run up. So had displacement often stepped in little Children's Pool, if you will, to have |
| 133 | 00:32:16 --> 00:32:36 | displacement there. We have a little gap right in there. The close 2998 And then the next candle is open. 2997 Okay. There's one pip difference in that, in this |
| 134 | 00:32:36 --> 00:32:51 | whole series of candles, normal free tutorial, folks would take that and say, Okay, these are all basically a single bullish order block. And he would mark |
| 135 | 00:32:51 --> 00:33:03 | off the mid range of that. Okay, I don't do that here. I'm looking at that one pip difference. Okay, and I think it's gonna go to that price point only. price |
| 136 | 00:33:03 --> 00:33:26 | comes down in Asia on 20th and has a low of 129 96. Okay, 129 96 is the low and the open, which is the bottom of that one pip gap is 120 1997. So we were off by |
| 137 | 00:33:26 --> 00:33:38 | one pip. But look at the sensitivity there, see that? It rallies up, clears equal highs and entries right back down into this level at the open on this |
| 138 | 00:33:38 --> 00:33:54 | candle, and then we have a run as price starts to rally in london session, price reaches up into that gap that is outlined outside of the normal range. Okay, so |
| 139 | 00:33:54 --> 00:34:08 | we are going back a little bit looking for imbalances. Price goes exactly to 131 41. Okay, notice it's also standard deviation three. It's also standard |
| 140 | 00:34:08 --> 00:34:21 | deviation seen. I gotta take that art online off, Erica. So we have our projection here. Note the time of the day, it makes the high 1800. And you |
| 141 | 00:34:21 --> 00:34:31 | learned this in the free tutorial stuff. 1800 Generally, is like the last bit of the daily range, unless it's like FOMC minutes or something like that, where we |
| 142 | 00:34:31 --> 00:34:42 | can see some flurry of action around the 1800 hour going into bond close. But you can see a beautiful delivery of price action shown with the standard |
| 143 | 00:34:42 --> 00:34:51 | deviations the overlapping from previous day. So it is referring back to these same price points, folks. It's undeniable. You can see it. It's happening there. |
| 144 | 00:34:52 --> 00:35:04 | Also notice that we also have in the London session. We have another gap right in here. Okay, but the body opens, we wick down, but we leave that opening and |
| 145 | 00:35:04 --> 00:35:15 | that there's no body there. Okay, so as price starts to move away, price comes back down into what? The gap, but are we looking to fill the gap? Or is it |
| 146 | 00:35:15 --> 00:35:24 | something else, we have to look at the order block to the left that last enclosed candle. So now this is where we're going to use the open, the open is |
| 147 | 00:35:24 --> 00:35:41 | 130 07. Okay, 130 07, the low on this candle comes in at 130 07. Perfect comes down goes into would be reasonable for the gap. But we're going to write to the |
| 148 | 00:35:41 --> 00:35:51 | open. So why am I not using the wick here, Michael? It's because we're using this as a draw to rebalance that we have to use the order block itself because |
| 149 | 00:35:51 --> 00:36:03 | that's where the actual into the array is going to be reached for Okay. In other words, that's the data it's reaching for that happens right here, then we get a |
| 150 | 00:36:03 --> 00:36:13 | nice reaction immediately off of that, and expands on the upside, reaching for the buy stops, as indicated on Twitter. Now, I didn't give you anything on |
| 151 | 00:36:13 --> 00:36:22 | Twitter beyond that, because if I give too many things on Twitter, it can be studied. And, you know, I was smart enough to figure it out too, after seeing |
| 152 | 00:36:22 --> 00:36:34 | many, many examples of it, so I don't want to give it away for free. So we see that 131 41 level delivered relative to several different things in here. And I |
| 153 | 00:36:34 --> 00:36:43 | want you to kind of like go through your charts and look for examples of that when we have a buy that has an order block. And there's a gap in here. Okay? |
| 154 | 00:36:44 --> 00:36:50 | Watch. Anytime that goes to that price, when you're seeing an order block that has its mean threshold violated, but still doesn't go below the low of that |
| 155 | 00:36:50 --> 00:37:01 | waterblock. Many times you're gonna find it has this event in here. Okay, so have that in your notes. I don't know when I'll talk about it again. But when it |
| 156 | 00:37:01 --> 00:37:09 | pops up and gives us an example of it. I'll certainly do so. But in your notes, you absolutely have to have this in your section for your order blocks because |
| 157 | 00:37:09 --> 00:37:21 | this is what makes me decide on whether or not I want to be buying at the open or the wicks high or sign at the wick low or selling at the open of the candle |
| 158 | 00:37:21 --> 00:37:32 | that would be a bearish overclock. Okay, theory it's a, it's a short term strategy, where I introduced the standard deviations and such and give you rules |
| 159 | 00:37:32 --> 00:37:41 | in that model. And when to pick the cloud and when to pick central bank dealers range and when to use the Asian session. So we don't need to go through all that |
| 160 | 00:37:41 --> 00:37:54 | that's already been taught. So want to take into a market. Australian Dollar is our daily chart versus US dollar. And we're inside that seasonal tendency that |
| 161 | 00:37:54 --> 00:38:06 | was bearish. Okay, we're looking at the daily chart here, we have a nice up close candle. And it's trading up into a breaker high, low, higher high trades |
| 162 | 00:38:06 --> 00:38:16 | up into the breaker there. So we have a bearish bias. And we have a up close candle in a market that's expected to go lower. And we'll say what's likely to |
| 163 | 00:38:16 --> 00:38:26 | draw down into this area here longer term, but again, we're just using this bias or these relative equal lows here as a means for determining the expansion we're |
| 164 | 00:38:26 --> 00:38:38 | looking for. So we're expecting the next day to start working lower, but for intraday, where do we aim for? Well, we start with this daily low. Okay, so |
| 165 | 00:38:38 --> 00:38:51 | we're gonna look at that daily low as an objective for a short if we can get all the confluences. Alright, so here, we have a 15 minute timeframe. I mentioned 15 |
| 166 | 00:38:51 --> 00:38:59 | minutes timeframe is kind of like the bellwether. So again, go through your model for model number five, and you'll hear all that detail as well. But we're |
| 167 | 00:38:59 --> 00:39:11 | focusing primarily on a run below this low. Okay, so we want to know, can we get a set up that sets up a short that takes out this low? And how far can it go |
| 168 | 00:39:12 --> 00:39:21 | using model five precision elements with the standard deviations? So that's our pool of liquidity that we're aiming for. And obviously, with the benefit of |
| 169 | 00:39:21 --> 00:39:32 | hindsight, we can see it's over here. But we're gonna put the map into it. Okay, so we're using the flout and I went through all the rules, you can go through |
| 170 | 00:39:32 --> 00:39:41 | that for yourself. This is what we're gonna be utilizing. So using a high to low, you always split that range in half, and then you can do your standard |
| 171 | 00:39:41 --> 00:39:54 | deviations set up that way. Or if your Fibonacci set up in such a way, where if you're taking the high to the low, the deviations, or whole number deviations, |
| 172 | 00:39:54 --> 00:40:03 | it's not a matter of exactly how many number up or down it's looking for Confluence. And that's one of the things I was trying to impress upon you in the |
| 173 | 00:40:03 --> 00:40:16 | model and five. So it's a confluence of not just one day, but at least two days worth of Confluence is within the construct of a bias. Okay, so in layman's |
| 174 | 00:40:16 --> 00:40:25 | terms, I'm going to walk you through it, we're looking for how this day went up higher, we're expecting it to go lower, because inside of seasonal tendency, |
| 175 | 00:40:25 --> 00:40:39 | we're expecting for that daily load to be taken out. And we want to use some precision elements to get us in sync with that. So I'm measuring that high to |
| 176 | 00:40:39 --> 00:40:49 | the low. And then what I'm doing is I'm determining that 50% level between that high net low, then I'm dropping the FIB from that to that. So it gives me the 50 |
| 177 | 00:40:49 --> 00:40:59 | levels, okay, and only reason why I'm doing it that way it may be confusing to you, is I want to have smaller standard deviations instead of like, well, the |
| 178 | 00:40:59 --> 00:41:10 | otherwise, from here to here, what I'm getting is from here to here, that's 50. So it gives me smaller increments of standard deviation. So you can see we have |
| 179 | 00:41:10 --> 00:41:21 | a standard deviation of negative five there. So we're looking for that in time, you can see we didn't get it, it's fine. We're gonna work on that. And then |
| 180 | 00:41:21 --> 00:41:34 | we're standard deviations are within three to five pips, that's, in my opinion, the realm of error, okay, where it can be within that vicinity and still be good |
| 181 | 00:41:34 --> 00:41:48 | enough. And the standard deviation on the upside, same way. Looking for 7489 For pipettes, and high exit comes in at 7493 and a half, so it's within five pips. |
| 182 | 00:41:48 --> 00:41:48 | Okay. |
| 183 | 00:41:51 --> 00:42:00 | The next trading day, this is where we're trying to take the setup. Same thing we're using flout using the rules with the standard deviations from suspect |
| 184 | 00:42:00 --> 00:42:12 | dealer frames, Asian range and flower. So same thing here. I'm showing you the sessions among Open New York open. So we're looking for key turning points. |
| 185 | 00:42:13 --> 00:42:24 | We're looking for sell setups, what's the bias is bearish. We're aiming for a run below that low here. And we anticipate what London creates an important high |
| 186 | 00:42:24 --> 00:42:35 | or high today. And then it spans down into New York open and potentially even later into London close. But we're using these two time zones, if you will, in |
| 187 | 00:42:35 --> 00:42:49 | terms of kill zones. And then we have the element of the London Open price action. So we want to get some measurements on this trading day. That will give |
| 188 | 00:42:49 --> 00:43:00 | us the objectives for that fair value gap. So it's two o'clock in the morning, it trades up into that fair value gap there. And we're expecting price to trade |
| 189 | 00:43:00 --> 00:43:11 | down how far well obviously, we're gonna look for it to go below there. But let's add some precision to it. Standard deviation, here to here measured down, |
| 190 | 00:43:11 --> 00:43:23 | we have flat calling for negative 1.5. The level comes in at 7394. And four pipettes that's what we're noting here. And if you look at the previous day's |
| 191 | 00:43:24 --> 00:43:39 | standard deviation, it's 7390, and seven, so again, within five pips variance. So we could split that range in half between this level and this level, and kind |
| 192 | 00:43:39 --> 00:43:50 | of aim for the midpoint or we can just take that level here plus the spread. And that would be fine as an objective. But we can take the swing projection idea |
| 193 | 00:43:50 --> 00:44:08 | that I've taught you high to low in that projection of negative one comes in and 7392 in one Tibet that is the exact low of that candle 7392 in one Tibet. So we |
| 194 | 00:44:08 --> 00:44:22 | have confluence of factors coming together within the New York kill zone, giving us a precise entry. Precise exit targeting initially, the sell side liquidity |
| 195 | 00:44:22 --> 00:44:32 | over here. So when you walk through your day, and you're looking for short term trades or day trades, and you're trying to determine what is you're trying to |
| 196 | 00:44:32 --> 00:44:43 | aim for, obviously you have to have the bias. Okay, it's going to frame them higher timeframe. When you're looking for these setups, you can use the London |
| 197 | 00:44:43 --> 00:44:56 | Open or New York open kill zone preferably. If you can track do London Open but if you don't have opportunity, training it at least use London Open skills on |
| 198 | 00:44:56 --> 00:45:10 | setup as a kind of a bias So your support to bias, if you were to use the New York setup, it would be this high, low optimal trade entry. Right here is your |
| 199 | 00:45:10 --> 00:45:21 | optimal trade entry. And you would look for a lower timeframe, here, you in here for fair value gap or something that would be a premium array. And cells off, |
| 200 | 00:45:21 --> 00:45:34 | and you can use the same targets based on all the things I've outlined here. So when you're using standard deviations, this is one of the hardest things that |
| 201 | 00:45:34 --> 00:45:45 | the students have been able to come to grips with, because there's variables here, okay, so when we go through these standard deviations, you're, you're |
| 202 | 00:45:45 --> 00:45:55 | you're doing multiple ones, so you're getting an idea where it could potentially go. And then you're gonna have to determine which one you're going to pick. Now, |
| 203 | 00:45:56 --> 00:46:08 | I've shown many examples of this, okay. And if you go through your old data, and you back test, you'll see many instances of precision elements like this, that |
| 204 | 00:46:08 --> 00:46:20 | it's undeniable. But the problem is, you want it to be easy, where it's just ABC 123, it always works the same way, it's not going to be like that, okay, it's |
| 205 | 00:46:20 --> 00:46:31 | never going to be just that simple. So there's going to be a variable of measuring the whips like I'm using, or using the bodies. And what you're doing |
| 206 | 00:46:31 --> 00:46:42 | is you're looking for which one of the ranges between the low and high is giving you the most confluences, between the previous day and the day you're trading. |
| 207 | 00:46:45 --> 00:46:55 | This is a Tuesday. So you're also building on the idea that maybe there was a high forms for the week, here on Monday. And then on Tuesday, you're looking for |
| 208 | 00:46:56 --> 00:47:04 | the rollover continuation, because we already had a nice move away from that. So there's a lot of factors, obviously, with model number five, but you can start |
| 209 | 00:47:04 --> 00:47:15 | to incorporate these elements in your other trades, if you're using an old trading model. Or if you're new back testing, always try to do these |
| 210 | 00:47:15 --> 00:47:22 | measurements, okay. And what will happen is, you'll start getting better at it, because I didn't learn how to do this, this morning, done and knew how to do it. |
| 211 | 00:47:22 --> 00:47:34 | It's not, it's not how it worked. It took a lot of years of fine tuning this. So that way, I'm looking for certain things that repeat. You're not going to know |
| 212 | 00:47:34 --> 00:47:42 | all the time. Okay? All you need to know is a rough idea on the trades that you're looking to take. If it's going to be based on an intraday either scalping |
| 213 | 00:47:42 --> 00:47:51 | or intraday, that's the only benefit really, I think model five is going to give you otherwise, you don't really need these things. There's other things that |
| 214 | 00:47:52 --> 00:48:00 | provide just as well, you know, higher timeframe objectives, that you don't need to be this precise. And if you're worrying about trying to be this precise, and |
| 215 | 00:48:00 --> 00:48:10 | that's like the only definition of you being successful here, you missing the point. Okay. If anything, this communicates the markets operate under an |
| 216 | 00:48:10 --> 00:48:21 | algorithm. And they refer to specific times for measurements for standard deviations above and below the market price within the context of the buys that |
| 217 | 00:48:21 --> 00:48:33 | will be expected bullish or bearish. Okay, and bringing in the elements of time. So the short here at the fair value gap, do you need this bid from here to here |
| 218 | 00:48:33 --> 00:48:42 | to give you that low? No, because you're going to know logically that you have relatively equal lows over here. That's the first partial and then below that |
| 219 | 00:48:42 --> 00:48:49 | low here, which is previous day's low, is sell side. So as soon as it hits that low and goes below about one pip, that would be enough for you to consider an |
| 220 | 00:48:49 --> 00:49:00 | objective to the common short. Do you need to be trying to get out at that price? No. But learn to study your previous moves, either by back testing or |
| 221 | 00:49:00 --> 00:49:11 | using it with your current trade to see if these ideas p&l Over time, your precision and the appreciation for how these markets price and book will |
| 222 | 00:49:11 --> 00:49:17 | obviously increase over time. Alright, so hopefully you found this one insightful so next time. Be safe |