ICT Charter PAM 9 - One Shot One Kill Trade Plan and Algorithmic Theory
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-02-09 09:38
Outline
00:30 - A price action trading model with 50-75 pip potential.
- Develop a weekly trading plan using a 20-week high-low range to predict price action.
- ICT looks for 50-75 pip moves in the direction of the weekly range bias, using price action and institutional order flow to identify potential runs on old highs and lows.
- When trading against the bias, ICT shorts premium by side liquidity pools, and when trading with the bias, they look for convergence of manipulation and price.
05:19 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- The trader discusses their strategy for entering and managing trades based on market conditions and price action.
- The trader outlines their stop loss management plan, including reducing stop losses as profits are made.
- ICT explains the formula for calculating position size, which equals account equity multiplied by a percent risk divided by pips.
- The formula is used to determine the number of mini lots or micro lots to trade, with the goal of minimizing risk and maximizing potential profits.
10:48 - A trading model for identifying profitable trades.
- ICT forecasts bullish range expansion for Eurodollar, anticipating a run above 20 week old high.
- The speaker is looking to day trade and make 50-75 pips using the lower threshold of a Fibonacci retracement level.
- The speaker uses a simple optimal trade entry model on the first of December, scaling out logical exits as the market makes higher runs above the premium erased.
- The speaker prioritizes trading on Tuesday or Wednesday, as these days have a higher probability of creating a higher low of the week.
- The speaker uses a combination of model numbers 8 and 9 to incorporate one-shot one-kill trading with a focus on optimal trade entry and liquidity.
18:33 - Trading strategies using chart analysis.
- ICT explains the logic behind one shot one kill trade entry in module 8, targeting 50-75 pips downside expansion on the weekly candle.
- The trader is looking to take a trade similar to model number eight, with a stop loss above a recent high and a target of 510-1520 pips below the low.
- The trader is using two orders for a one shot one kill setup, with a risk of 2% of equity and a target of taking partial profits at one standard deviation below the low.
23:28 - Trading strategies using technical analysis and risk management.
- ICT uses technical analysis and consistency in 3 decades of experience to quickly take advantage of trading opportunities.
- ICT aims for a reach into a juicy liquidity pool in a discount market, targeting a low and a higher low for a limit order.
- Trader discusses using midpoint between two lows as a reference point for limit orders to avoid denial by brokers using in-house liquidity pools.
- Trader plans to pyramid with second order if conditions permit, looking for two stages of accumulation or distribution.
28:51 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- ICT expects to pyramid on a trade above equilibrium, taking partial profits and adding to the position as it moves lower.
- ICT will not take partial profits if they have high conviction the trade will reach below equilibrium, instead aiming to maximize profits and add to the position.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of mastering oneself, not the market, in trading.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of individuality in trading, giving traders freedom to choose their own approach while providing hard and fast rules when applicable.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:30 --> 00:00:40 | ICT: People's Welcome back. This is the SUV intership 50 to 75 pips per week model, price action model number nine one shot one kill. I appreciate your |
| 2 | 00:00:40 --> 00:00:54 | patience. I was trying to get a set up for this model on the Monday weekend in December 4 2020. But it required me to get it on Tuesday. So we're looking at a |
| 3 | 00:00:55 --> 00:01:04 | example inside of this trade plan. I usually I prompt you that to look for your own, which you'll still be prompted to look for your own with this one. But I |
| 4 | 00:01:04 --> 00:01:08 | included a real world example and execution you can find on my YouTube channel |
| 5 | 00:01:18 --> 00:01:28 | okay as at Price Action Model number 950 to 75 pips per week trade plan, one shot one kill model. Like always, there's five stages to every trade plan |
| 6 | 00:01:28 --> 00:01:40 | development, first preparation, opportunity to discovery, trade planning, trade, execution and trade management. Alright, so preparation, obviously, we're going |
| 7 | 00:01:40 --> 00:01:47 | to be noting all medium and high impact events for the markets, you're going to be following your study the events on the week to come and consider how the |
| 8 | 00:01:47 --> 00:02:00 | current market structure and the calendar events may suggest a specific weekly profile for that week's range. Now there's a slight twist here on ELLIPTA. Okay, |
| 9 | 00:02:00 --> 00:02:08 | I'm bringing in the weekly chart. So in this case, we're looking at the preparation stage, and we're going to be determining the IP the data range of |
| 10 | 00:02:08 --> 00:02:19 | the last 20 weeks. So we're replacing days with weeks. Note the highest high and the lowest low in the past 20 weeks. This is your current dealing range. Now |
| 11 | 00:02:19 --> 00:02:32 | we're looking at a intermediate term time horizon. So it's going to give us a lot more predictive nature to where price is going to draw on an institutional |
| 12 | 00:02:32 --> 00:02:42 | level, not intraday, but on a larger macro scale. So we're going to be looking at 20 weeks ago and in the highest high and lowest low that range is going to be |
| 13 | 00:02:42 --> 00:02:53 | salient for this model. Inside this dealing range, we will look for the next draw on liquidity where's the price likely to trade to next, below which old low |
| 14 | 00:02:53 --> 00:03:07 | above which old high, we look for PD array in the direction of the weekly range bias. Now you have the benefit of having the archives and my commentaries. And |
| 15 | 00:03:07 --> 00:03:18 | you'll see that we were looking for bullish Eurodollar bearish dollar at the time of this trade plans presentation. So it's not like I'm Cherry Picking I'm |
| 16 | 00:03:18 --> 00:03:28 | not trying to talk about something in conceptual form only. And using hindsight actually used this model for an example and shared it with the public on |
| 17 | 00:03:28 --> 00:03:40 | YouTube. We anticipate price to move to a pdra that would support our weekly bias on a day and news release found on the economic calendar for the current or |
| 18 | 00:03:40 --> 00:03:52 | next trading week. This volatility injection is what we wait for. This would be a run based on a low resistance liquidity run condition. Opportunity discovery. |
| 19 | 00:03:53 --> 00:04:06 | Now in this chart here I'm showing you two ranges or two rectangles and when I look at one shot one kill my preference is 50 to 75 pips now, I'm not trying to |
| 20 | 00:04:06 --> 00:04:16 | get my full entry to exit at 75 Maximum pips that's not what I tried to do. But you can graduate to that if you want that to be your model, but I like to look |
| 21 | 00:04:16 --> 00:04:27 | for easy 50 pips. So half a penny move is basically my one shot one kill. So we're gonna be looking for price action with that range in mind 50 to 75 pips |
| 22 | 00:04:27 --> 00:04:39 | and we look at how the swings outline where potential runs on old highs and lows would frame 50 to 75 pips so we'd look for 50 to 75 pips that will enable a run |
| 23 | 00:04:39 --> 00:04:46 | to buy side liquidity, when bullish institutional order flow is present or target the sell side liquidity when the bearish institutional order flow is |
| 24 | 00:04:46 --> 00:04:47 | present. |
| 25 | 00:04:54 --> 00:05:04 | Trade planning when the market is poised to decline, we want to look for convergence of Both manipulation and price opposite to our trade bias. At a time |
| 26 | 00:05:04 --> 00:05:15 | that economic calendar suggests the volatility in Jackson would likely unfold. We will short premium by side liquidity pools. When the market is poised to |
| 27 | 00:05:15 --> 00:05:23 | rally we want to look for convergence of both manipulation and price. Opposite to our trade bias at a time the economic calendar suggests a volatility |
| 28 | 00:05:23 --> 00:05:37 | injection will likely unfold. We will buy discount sell side liquidity polls trade executions when we are bearish, we will anticipate a 15 minute chart |
| 29 | 00:05:37 --> 00:05:46 | optimal trade entry to form inside of a retracement higher during London Open and or New York open kill zones or buy stop read that we will go short when it |
| 30 | 00:05:46 --> 00:05:59 | unfolds. When we are bullish, we will anticipate a 15 minute chart optimal trade entry to form inside of a retracement lower during London Open and or New York |
| 31 | 00:05:59 --> 00:06:12 | open kill zones or a sell stop raid that we will go long when it unfolds. short trade management when we are entering a short we will short at the market with |
| 32 | 00:06:12 --> 00:06:24 | our demo account. We will use the PDE array convergence optimal trade entry inside of a kill zone as our entry price when using the short market order. When |
| 33 | 00:06:24 --> 00:06:32 | we are entering along we will buy at the market with our demo account. We will use the PD array convergence optimal trade entry inside of a kill zone as our |
| 34 | 00:06:32 --> 00:06:45 | entry price when using the Buy Market order. When we're entering a short we will place a limit order to take 50 pips as our objective on a single position or as |
| 35 | 00:06:45 --> 00:06:55 | an alternative, we will use one order to manage the trade idea. If you capture a 50 Pip objective closed 80% of the position and see if the remainder can reach |
| 36 | 00:06:55 --> 00:07:06 | 75 pips, taking partials along the way at logical short term lows. When we're entering along we will place a limit order to take 50 pips as our objective is |
| 37 | 00:07:06 --> 00:07:16 | one single position. Or alternatively, we will use one order to manage the trade idea. If you capture a 50 Pip objective close 80% of the position and see if the |
| 38 | 00:07:16 --> 00:07:29 | remainder can reach 75 pips again taking partials at short term highs along the way. Stop Loss management, when we are in profit 50% of our expected objective |
| 39 | 00:07:29 --> 00:07:39 | stop loss can be reduced by 25%. When we are in profit 75% of our expected objective stop loss can be reduced by breakeven. In the example on our YouTube |
| 40 | 00:07:39 --> 00:07:49 | channel, you actually see me utilize this method. Money management, position size calculation formula, position size equals account equity times our percent |
| 41 | 00:07:49 --> 00:07:59 | divided by stoploss and pips. position size is the amount of leverage you trade or trades assume account equity is the total amount in your trading account. Our |
| 42 | 00:07:59 --> 00:08:08 | percent is the percent of risk you're willing to take on portrayed. The difference between the entry price and your stop loss is the number of pips you |
| 43 | 00:08:08 --> 00:08:22 | will use to divide the result of equity times our percent. Example, account equity of $10,000 risk per trade is 1%, or 10,000 times 1% equals $100. So the |
| 44 | 00:08:22 --> 00:08:33 | stock required for the trade is 20 pips and micro lots or one kg leverage each represents 10 cents per pip. So if we're using 20 pips, when a stop 10 cents |
| 45 | 00:08:33 --> 00:08:49 | into 20 pips is $2 per pip $100 divided by $2 per pip allows us to trade with 50 Micro lots per trade or 1% of the account equity, always round down. In this |
| 46 | 00:08:49 --> 00:09:01 | example, here, we're utilizing mini lots, same representation of an account hypothetically at 10,000 hours 1% risk is $100. Stop required 20 pips, so many |
| 47 | 00:09:01 --> 00:09:17 | lots 10k. Each leverage represents $1 per pit. So if we're using a trade with a 20, pip stop loss at $1 per mini lot, it represents $1 cost of $20 USD. So we |
| 48 | 00:09:17 --> 00:09:27 | have a total risk of 100 hours that we're allowed to assume, with $20 divided into that 100 allows us to have five mini lots per trade or 1% of the account |
| 49 | 00:09:27 --> 00:09:41 | equity, always round them. Again, same instance with hypothetical $10,000 account 1% risk is $100. And you cannot utilize this framework with a standard |
| 50 | 00:09:41 --> 00:09:52 | lock because it's too much leverage. If your demo account takes a loss on a train and it is the full our percent you assumed dropped the our percent by 50%. |
| 51 | 00:09:52 --> 00:10:02 | And when the losses recovered by 50% You are permitted to return to the maximum our percent for trade in this example so you took the full loss of $100. The |
| 52 | 00:10:02 --> 00:10:16 | next trade, you have to use leverage that allows you to only risk 50 hours. If that trade allows you to make $25 back, that will allow you to go back to that |
| 53 | 00:10:16 --> 00:10:30 | full $100 risk. If the reduced R percent trade assumes a loss reduced the R percent by 50% until the previous trade loss is recovered by 50%. If you take a |
| 54 | 00:10:30 --> 00:10:38 | series of five winning trades in a row, drop your R percent by 50%, you're likely to assume a loss eventually, and this will build an equity leveling and |
| 55 | 00:10:38 --> 00:10:49 | reduce the likelihood of a large drawdown. You want a smooth equity curve that slopes or stairsteps higher, not jagged with deep declines. Real Time example. |
| 56 | 00:10:50 --> 00:11:00 | Alright, let's look at the Euro dollar and a real execution on this model with the week ending December 4 2020. Again, I'm counseling you go back into the |
| 57 | 00:11:00 --> 00:11:11 | archives in my commentary section, and look at our analysis as we were looking for higher objectives on this pair and lower on the dollar. So the conditions |
| 58 | 00:11:11 --> 00:11:20 | were bullish Eurodollar. And our commentary suggested price could reach out to a fair value gap in higher timeframe charts. Now, the chart to the left here, |
| 59 | 00:11:20 --> 00:11:31 | let's zoom in on that. This is actually a weekly chart, you can see the fair value gap and the 20 week old high that's being referenced there. So that old |
| 60 | 00:11:32 --> 00:11:41 | pie we're going to anticipate. And you can see here with the benefit of hindsight now, but I want you to remember that this was outlined in commentary |
| 61 | 00:11:42 --> 00:11:53 | in terms of bias where I was suggesting you turn your attention to for Eurodollar. It was bullish. So this is the at present on the second of December |
| 62 | 00:11:53 --> 00:12:03 | 2020 At the time of this recording. So we're seeing what the weekly range looks at the moment it might change, it might expand even more. It doesn't matter. All |
| 63 | 00:12:03 --> 00:12:13 | we're doing is looking for this weekly range to expand. Okay, if that expands, it gives us probability that our bullishness on intraday charts or short term |
| 64 | 00:12:13 --> 00:12:24 | trading should allow us the ability to find and harvest a setup that is bullish. So we were looking for a run above that 20 week old high for biocide, liquidity. |
| 65 | 00:12:25 --> 00:12:35 | So we have bullish bias on the weekly range expansion. So we're expecting that and now we have to look at the economic calendar. So we're gonna look inside |
| 66 | 00:12:35 --> 00:12:47 | this area of price action, and we're gonna go down to a daily chart. So it just happens on Tuesday, December 1 2020. Bullish range expansion anticipated, the |
| 67 | 00:12:47 --> 00:12:58 | economic calendar suggested that we would have a high impact news event with the Fed Chair speaking at 10am New York local time. This is what the chart looks |
| 68 | 00:12:58 --> 00:13:11 | like on a individual daily basis. So the next candle, I'm forecasting a run higher. So I'm looking for what a day trade and I'm looking for the likelihood |
| 69 | 00:13:11 --> 00:13:28 | of 50 to 75 pips using the low end 50 pips. So on December 1, you can see here Tuesday, December 1, the market creates a impulse lay higher, and then it |
| 70 | 00:13:28 --> 00:13:41 | retraces it creates an optimal trade entry going into the New York session. So during New York open, we have the Fibonacci laid over top of the bodies of the |
| 71 | 00:13:41 --> 00:13:52 | candles. So that gives us a more precise area of entry. You can look at the recording that's on my YouTube channel and actually go over the entries and such |
| 72 | 00:13:52 --> 00:13:59 | you can see me executing and you can see the actual prices. So that's not important for this example, because you can actually watch me trade enter it |
| 73 | 00:13:59 --> 00:14:13 | managed to start the whole business and it's my limit order. The projections on the FIB, obviously, can be forecasted to the tune of 50 pips or 75 pips. Now |
| 74 | 00:14:13 --> 00:14:24 | because I just want certain amounts of the content that I have as education only making its way to YouTube, I use the lower threshold. And I didn't do a whole |
| 75 | 00:14:24 --> 00:14:33 | lot of annotations in the chart, I just made it very simple optimal trade entry, which is what we're using here because that was the model I used in real time on |
| 76 | 00:14:33 --> 00:14:49 | the first of December. So the market allows me to get 50 pips and I took scaled out logical exits as the market made higher runs above, premium erased. So going |
| 77 | 00:14:49 --> 00:14:53 | back to this range here, this is what it looked like |
| 78 | 00:14:55 --> 00:15:05 | on the daily and then ultimately we had that explosion here. One euro dollar. Now in the video, obviously I'm holding back what would draw attention to these |
| 79 | 00:15:05 --> 00:15:17 | PD arrays, I just use a very short term swing high in drawing by liquidity in reference to that. But using this model here, it allows for a lot larger |
| 80 | 00:15:17 --> 00:15:27 | magnitude in terms of scaled out profits or ultimately made even more than 75 pips for one shot one kill, folks, welcome back. This is price action model |
| 81 | 00:15:27 --> 00:15:41 | number nine algorithmic lecture and discussion. This is a one shot one kill model, and is specifically dealing with stocking 50 to 75 pips per week. And, |
| 82 | 00:15:41 --> 00:15:51 | again, there's no necessity for me to go through all the the rules and things that go along with the trading plan, the model that's already been covered. And |
| 83 | 00:15:51 --> 00:16:02 | I kind of want to give you some ideas on how I personally approach this and how I use it. Preferably, I want to look for the weekly range expansion, I'm gonna |
| 84 | 00:16:02 --> 00:16:14 | try to get a feel for that. And if I can trust the higher timeframe bias, but there is many times you're gonna find it waiting and seeing what the first day |
| 85 | 00:16:14 --> 00:16:24 | of the week trades like it kind of either confirms or negates the idea that you had probably over the weekend or the end of the previous week's analysis. And |
| 86 | 00:16:24 --> 00:16:36 | I'm looking for a Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, but I'm willing to kind of like, give up the Monday. Because think about the logic that's hot 70% of the time |
| 87 | 00:16:36 --> 00:16:47 | tuesday, makes a higher low of the week. So if there's a lot of opportunity, we're odds that Tuesday creates the higher low of the week, is it really that |
| 88 | 00:16:47 --> 00:16:59 | big of a deal if you don't take a trade on Monday, in my opinion, my view is no. So I'm willing to give up the Monday's trading for that reason. Now, there are |
| 89 | 00:16:59 --> 00:17:08 | times in the past 30 years that I can look back and say I wish I would have traded on Monday because it created a absolutely stunning, high or low of the |
| 90 | 00:17:08 --> 00:17:19 | week. And I let them out of the range on the table because I didn't participate on Monday. But it doesn't happen so much that I beat myself up about it or am |
| 91 | 00:17:19 --> 00:17:31 | willing to change my ideal scenario, which is wait on Monday, use that for Intel, and then trade on Tuesday or Wednesday. But I'm looking for something to |
| 92 | 00:17:31 --> 00:17:42 | the effect of a optimal trade entry returned back into a fair value gap. Something that gives me a very clear run on liquidity relative equal lows, I |
| 93 | 00:17:42 --> 00:17:52 | mean, it's gonna be like a textbook ICT setup. And if I don't have it, then I'm just going to do small little scalps and just get my money that way. So I'm not |
| 94 | 00:17:52 --> 00:18:03 | worried about forcing this model, but I go in with the expectation looking for but again, is say I'm off and I'm not accurate with my analysis and or I miss a |
| 95 | 00:18:03 --> 00:18:13 | move then I'll have to use the smaller short term intraday approaches to get what I need instead of getting one shot one kill 50 to 75 pips for that week. |
| 96 | 00:18:18 --> 00:18:30 | All right, I'm gonna use the same example because of model number eight. That example is exactly how I would incorporate in utilize one shot one kill, I go |
| 97 | 00:18:30 --> 00:18:39 | in, I use model number II and model number nine together. So I'll explain as I go. But the levels here obviously without having meant it again. And this is |
| 98 | 00:18:39 --> 00:18:48 | what those two levels are. So when we go into lower timeframe charts, you'll see it the logic is we consolidated here to get the pie started don't wanna go too |
| 99 | 00:18:48 --> 00:18:57 | much into what I've already discussed in module number eight, but the expectation is the weekly range should expand lower giving the benefit of the |
| 100 | 00:18:57 --> 00:19:01 | doubt. And if you look at the range |
| 101 | 00:19:06 --> 00:19:16 | this low here, why this low, why not that low, you could use that low. I like this, because this is where the energetic price run starts for this swing, call |
| 102 | 00:19:16 --> 00:19:33 | it to the high here, okay? You would measure that from low to high to get your range equilibrium. Okay, and it would cause us to be interested in these |
| 103 | 00:19:33 --> 00:19:43 | relatively equal lows. Obviously with the benefit of hindsight, you can see what it is here, but we're gonna go into the idea of one shot one kill in concert |
| 104 | 00:19:43 --> 00:19:56 | with model number eight. Alright, and here's the five minute chart again. All the business with the s&p divergence really qualifying this as decidedly weak |
| 105 | 00:19:56 --> 00:20:06 | because dollar was able to make a lower low where cable was up unwilling to make a higher high our fair value gap, optimal trade entry, several years of sales |
| 106 | 00:20:06 --> 00:20:15 | I've been taken. And also with the logic behind the hourly bias of liquidity pool has been taken and the old imbalance in the form of a SEBI has kept price |
| 107 | 00:20:15 --> 00:20:29 | at bay and couldn't go any higher. So we're likely to see downside expansion on the weekly candle. Ie possible conditions for one shot one kill 50 to 75 pips. |
| 108 | 00:20:29 --> 00:20:41 | So we would go into it with that framework initially. So on a five minute chart, all the business that's been done on the model number eight, which is the 6% per |
| 109 | 00:20:41 --> 00:20:53 | month, like a bread and butter type setup, every single one of my one shot one kill trades, I'm trying to do this type of scenario, I want to do a separate |
| 110 | 00:20:53 --> 00:21:05 | trade, where I'm only trying to get what would be described as model number eight. It's a complete trade all together by itself, its own individual order. |
| 111 | 00:21:05 --> 00:21:15 | So if I'm going to take a trade, using this fair value gap using this as a stop, I'm going to place two limit orders. One is a sell limit order just above this |
| 112 | 00:21:15 --> 00:21:30 | candle is high, with a stop loss just above here, one or two pivots. And I'm going to be looking for either 510 1520 pips below this low here. This |
| 113 | 00:21:30 --> 00:21:40 | individual trade, which is essentially a model number eight, I'm going to take first partial profit at that low, then I'll take it at 10 pips below that, and |
| 114 | 00:21:40 --> 00:21:53 | then I'll let the remaining portion fill on the limit if I can get once this low is taken out, I'm rolling the stock down just to break even. The one shot one |
| 115 | 00:21:53 --> 00:22:05 | kill is I'm looking for a scenario that lends a objective that's down here further. But what if I'm wrong, the model number eight orders take care of that |
| 116 | 00:22:05 --> 00:22:19 | for me. So I don't have to take off anything, all my second order, which is a repeat of the same order I use for model number eights, logic, similar words. If |
| 117 | 00:22:19 --> 00:22:32 | I'm risking 1%, okay, which is what I was teaching in model number eight. If I'm going to risk 2%, because I want one shot, one kill 2% will be 1% applied to the |
| 118 | 00:22:32 --> 00:22:45 | smaller setup that wants to take profit aggressively early. The second one will be duplicate entry and stop with 1%. So a total risk of what 2% 2% of equity. |
| 119 | 00:22:47 --> 00:22:59 | I'm not going to take anything off below this low. I'm going to standard deviation, this run from here to here and project that down. And I want to take |
| 120 | 00:22:59 --> 00:23:09 | first partial at one standard deviation between this low and this high. Basically, this is a measured move, I would take one partial off there, then I |
| 121 | 00:23:09 --> 00:23:23 | would take another one at one and a half. And then I would look to see if I can get a fill on that old relatively equal low on our OHR. So one order would be |
| 122 | 00:23:23 --> 00:23:32 | framed like this. This is like model number eight. So I'm doing two orders for one shot one kill. This is how I'm able to really jack up these accounts really |
| 123 | 00:23:32 --> 00:23:44 | quick. Because I'm doing multiple orders. And I'm trying to get the most juice out of each one. This one here is the best is going to give me on the smallest |
| 124 | 00:23:44 --> 00:23:55 | portion of the trade. First profit comes off here. Second one is 510 pips below, which would be 125 50. And then we'll see whatever I get, which is the smallest |
| 125 | 00:23:55 --> 00:24:09 | portion always hitting the limit order, because I'm paying that position as it offers opportunity to do so. So quickly removes risk, and bank rolls the equity |
| 126 | 00:24:09 --> 00:24:19 | curve in the account. That's how you seen these parabolic runs in my examples where I'm taking accounts and running them out real quick. No empty for servers |
| 127 | 00:24:19 --> 00:24:28 | required. Okay, it's math. And it's technical analysis and consistency in three decades experience. But I'm doing this here I'm doing one order like this. And |
| 128 | 00:24:28 --> 00:24:38 | then I'm applying a second order that looks very similar to everything else except for I'm not trying to take a profit until I'm one standard deviation of |
| 129 | 00:24:38 --> 00:24:52 | the range from this low up to the optimal trade entry or fair value got high. projected down. So I'm focusing on these relative equal lows here, because if I |
| 130 | 00:24:52 --> 00:25:03 | do that, I'm using this low to this high this is equilibrium. So if I'm good expecting this to go down in the weekly range to expand. And I'm trying to get |
| 131 | 00:25:03 --> 00:25:12 | as much bang for my buck and not just do a 6% return, which I'm already doing it anyway by taking a tree with 1%. But the second order I'm dealing with on |
| 132 | 00:25:12 --> 00:25:24 | percent risk, I'm aiming for these relative equal lows. Because it's a discount market, relative to the low to high and below equilibrium. In a discount market, |
| 133 | 00:25:24 --> 00:25:37 | we have this juicy little self out liquidity pool. So tagging that level there. That's what I'm looking for, I'm looking for a reach into that below this low |
| 134 | 00:25:37 --> 00:25:44 | here or in here. Now, if you have a setup like this, this is something I do, I haven't taught this anywhere else in the mentorship, because we're charging |
| 135 | 00:25:44 --> 00:25:54 | members. Now, if I have this idea like this have a low and a higher low here, what I'll do is I'll take the range difference between that low and a high rate |
| 136 | 00:25:54 --> 00:26:01 | between the middle of that that's where my order is going to be for limit. Exactly right there. I'm not fluffing it up for any kind of spread, I'm |
| 137 | 00:26:01 --> 00:26:12 | literally putting it between this low and this high 50% of that, that's where my motor would reside. I don't need it to go below that well. Okay. So obviously, |
| 138 | 00:26:12 --> 00:26:22 | you can see it does do that. But I've had many times in forex, especially with FX cm, which is a garbage broker, in my opinion. And space, every time I get a |
| 139 | 00:26:22 --> 00:26:35 | chance to bring them up that broker many times would deny me or my limit order, because I would have it just below here. And they wouldn't let me do it. Because |
| 140 | 00:26:35 --> 00:26:45 | they're using in house liquidity pools, and they have the benefit of doing it. So one of the things I did to kind of like beat that game was I would use the |
| 141 | 00:26:45 --> 00:26:52 | midpoint between the two lows split in half, that's where my limit order would be. Okay, so but then you notes, you can use that, and I think it'll serve you |
| 142 | 00:26:52 --> 00:27:04 | well. So with that logic, the second order now, again, this is an entirely separate order than that was used for model number eight, model number eight, |
| 143 | 00:27:04 --> 00:27:15 | logic is being applied with one trade one order, okay, the risk is the same for the second order. But I'm not taking profit off until I get this range here to |
| 144 | 00:27:15 --> 00:27:27 | here, duplicate it to the downside. So first partial profit will be down here, then to equilibrium. That's it, this level is here. And then the old low is |
| 145 | 00:27:27 --> 00:27:36 | sweeping down here. And I'm splitting, which will be essentially probably in this area here, that level would be hit for my hypothetical limit order between |
| 146 | 00:27:36 --> 00:27:50 | the routes of equal lows. If it is a really close to one another equal low, or a relative equal low, then I'll just put it just at or one, Pip at below the |
| 147 | 00:27:50 --> 00:28:02 | relative equal lows, that way it's really building in the idea that the limit order can fill it. Also, this second order, okay, this is the one I'm going to |
| 148 | 00:28:02 --> 00:28:15 | try to pyramid with if it permits me the opportunity to do so. I did a discussion on the model six and seven, universal model. And I talked about how |
| 149 | 00:28:16 --> 00:28:28 | if the rains permits me to do to stages of accumulation or distribution. If I get that type of scenario and price action, those are the conditions I look for, |
| 150 | 00:28:28 --> 00:28:37 | for permitting. If I don't have it, then obviously I can't do it. So for more logic on that, go back to model number seven, I think I did that in a lecture on |
| 151 | 00:28:37 --> 00:28:46 | the algorithmic theory, talking about where and how I do the permitting. For permitting, I would use the second order here, which has the one shot one kill, |
| 152 | 00:28:46 --> 00:28:58 | I would look for new entries anytime it would offer me one. As long as I don't get below the equilibrium. I can take more entries as long as we're above |
| 153 | 00:28:58 --> 00:29:00 | equilibrium. In other words, we're above this level here. |
| 154 | 00:29:02 --> 00:29:11 | Okay, as long as we have not traded down to that level, I don't care if it's 10 pips above it. If it gives me an opportunity to put more on one I will, because |
| 155 | 00:29:11 --> 00:29:18 | it's going to likely sweep through that. That's what my expectation is. So as long as we're above, if I'm shorting above equilibrium on the framework that's |
| 156 | 00:29:18 --> 00:29:29 | used for the trade, I will pyramid. So what does that look like? Well, if I did 1%, up here, whatever that leverage would be on a $5,000 account, which would be |
| 157 | 00:29:29 --> 00:29:45 | $50 risk. It would yield me if I did no pyramiding whatsoever, and no partials taken off. It would be about 14 Almost 14% Return on the second order. Now mind |
| 158 | 00:29:45 --> 00:29:56 | you the other order the first one, because there's duplicate orders being placed here. It would be around 20% Return on just one move with no pyramid thing, no |
| 159 | 00:29:56 --> 00:30:06 | partials. But if I take the other one out off, as I mentioned, and then the second order is managed, where I'm taking first partial after one standard |
| 160 | 00:30:06 --> 00:30:15 | deviation of this range here projected down. First partial, how much would I take off? I'm going to leave that open for your own determination. I don't want |
| 161 | 00:30:15 --> 00:30:24 | to kind of give you a hard and fast rule for how much because that's always going to be a experience thing. So general rules and principles, how can you |
| 162 | 00:30:24 --> 00:30:36 | look at it to cap off, because that gives you room for two partials at 25% of the remaining balance for the next partial or second partial, and then let the |
| 163 | 00:30:36 --> 00:30:46 | third remaining 25% of the trade go to limit order. Okay, if I'm not gonna be doing a lot of partials, okay, and I have a lot of conviction that I think we're |
| 164 | 00:30:46 --> 00:30:59 | gonna get down below that equilibrium, I won't take any partials at all, we looking to maximize and add to it. So in here, we don't have anything here we |
| 165 | 00:30:59 --> 00:31:09 | have immediate rebalance here, that would be an area where I would add half of whatever I use for leverage to get into entry here with no partials yet, I would |
| 166 | 00:31:09 --> 00:31:20 | go in and do half of whatever I used for the second order, I would add that as another short, and my stop loss would be just above the gap here, because I |
| 167 | 00:31:20 --> 00:31:30 | wouldn't expect that to be filled. And then as it rode lower, this one here, where it comes back up, we went below equilibrium, I could not add any more. So |
| 168 | 00:31:30 --> 00:31:40 | give me just basically one opportunity to pyramid there. And that's really, right to the brass tacks simple straight to the point, no beating around the |
| 169 | 00:31:40 --> 00:31:51 | bush, get to the point ICT This is it. But notice how I could not explain this to you. If you just started with month one, or if you just went halfway through |
| 170 | 00:31:51 --> 00:31:59 | the core content, you don't have enough behind you, you might think you do some of you have a high opinion of yourself and you think you're way more intelligent |
| 171 | 00:31:59 --> 00:32:10 | than you really are. But when it comes to these markets, I'm still an infant, I'm learning all the time, okay, and I've been doing it for 30 years, you are |
| 172 | 00:32:10 --> 00:32:18 | never going to master the market, the market is never going to allow you to master it, the only thing you can do is master yourself and how you're going to |
| 173 | 00:32:18 --> 00:32:30 | engage it. So don't let a false sense of intellect or high opinion of yourself, thank you can look at this and say it was you could have saved me a lot of time, |
| 174 | 00:32:30 --> 00:32:43 | by just saying it like this, you don't realize and you're discounting an enormous amount of exposure time lectures, examples, like you've seen a lot. And |
| 175 | 00:32:43 --> 00:32:55 | you can't discount that. So a perfect example of that is look at the free community. Okay, the free community, I have taught exclusive lessons on bias. |
| 176 | 00:32:57 --> 00:33:05 | And because they have not sat down and watched how I do every single week with you all here, I outline where I think the markets gonna go. And we'd look and |
| 177 | 00:33:05 --> 00:33:15 | see how price delivers relative to the time of day and day a week. And it delivers generally, within the scope of what I'm looking for. That's how you |
| 178 | 00:33:15 --> 00:33:26 | learn bias. They want a give me one sentence to set a roll. And it always repeats the same way. And I want to think about it. That's what some of you are |
| 179 | 00:33:26 --> 00:33:36 | going to think about where we are right now as charter members. You're gonna think, well, this could have been condensed, condensed into a five part series |
| 180 | 00:33:36 --> 00:33:46 | and been done with it. No, no, because you don't have any idea what it's like to navigate through all the asset classes and how the quarterly shifts in the |
| 181 | 00:33:46 --> 00:33:56 | seasonal tendency. Sometimes they come in sometimes they don't look at what happened with COVID. Nadine, all those things had a major impact. Look at what |
| 182 | 00:33:56 --> 00:34:05 | they've done since the COVID. Crap. It's all kinds of stuff. So you're getting curveballs thrown at you all the time. And if anybody in here seems to believe |
| 183 | 00:34:05 --> 00:34:14 | that they could have learned all this stuff, in just a few short lessons, you are lying to yourself. And there's absolutely no way you could have done that. |
| 184 | 00:34:14 --> 00:34:26 | Okay? Because there's too many variables there. The variables are so enormous. And that's why I force the decision on you on how you're going to treat it. |
| 185 | 00:34:26 --> 00:34:37 | Because each one of you have these strong opinions about the way you interpret price. They may or not be correct. But you have those individual characteristics |
| 186 | 00:34:37 --> 00:34:47 | that you're bringing to the table as a trader, I'm cognizant of that. So I give room for that, like anybody that would be a reasonable educator, I give you the |
| 187 | 00:34:47 --> 00:34:56 | freedom and flexibility to choose how it is that you're going to trade. But I give you rules that are hard and fast, when and where applicable. And for the |
| 188 | 00:34:56 --> 00:35:02 | answer that I get all the time. How am I running up these accounts and how am I doing this and how am I doing that? And when I tell you, I'm using mentorship, |
| 189 | 00:35:03 --> 00:35:10 | this is what I'm doing. Okay? Only when I'm buying and selling up and down, up and down, up and down. That's enigma. And I'm not going to teach that and you |
| 190 | 00:35:10 --> 00:35:19 | all know that. But you don't need that. You don't need that at all. My son's not even trading with enigma. He's doing, in my opinion, doing very, very well first |
| 191 | 00:35:19 --> 00:35:29 | first month. So let that be a encouragement to you. So hopefully you found this one insightful. Until next time, be safe. |