ICT Charter PAM 8 - Targeting 6% Per Month
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-02-09 09:32
Outline
00:02 - Simplifying trading models for maximum efficiency.
- Trader aims to make 25 pips per week with a focus on weekly range expansion.
- ICT clarifies that the model is designed to simplify complex concepts from mentorship content, without including every single component.
04:08 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- Focus on weekly chart to identify upside or downside expansion.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of managing risk and maximizing potential reward, rather than solely focusing on the 25 pip goal.
- ICT encourages students to be patient and disciplined in their trading, and to come back to the material next week if they make a mistake.
09:25 - Weekly range expansion and bullish/bearish seasonals.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of internalizing market analysis and not relying solely on technical indicators.
- Weekly range expansion is key to successful trading, with a focus on bullish or bearish pneus.
- Trader seeks consistent profitability through weekly bread and butter setups, not Olympic feats.
14:06 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of locking in 25 pips within a weekly range and allowing it to grow, rather than trying to bank profits immediately.
- Focusing on where the market is likely to reach in the next 50-75 pips, rather than pushing for more, is key to successful trading.
- ICT explains the importance of identifying the day of the week for potential price action setups, specifically the daily high for Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday to form an anchor point for the PDRA matrix.
- ICT highlights the focus on inefficiencies, fair value guessing, and runs on liquidity pools as the pattern to be focused on in the next 50-100 pips of price action.
19:45 - Trading strategies for a bearish week.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of identifying high performers on Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday, based on the chart's consolidation and potential highs.
- Wednesday's high probability of creating the week's high is beneficial for traders, but they should avoid being overly ambitious and focus on realistic, low-risk entry points.
- ICT maps out a trading plan for the week of December 6, targeting a liquidity pool in the $9599-$90 area.
- On Thursday, December 6, traders can enter a sell position in the market structure break that occurs on Wednesday's low.
24:50 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of identifying equal highs and lows in price action, as these levels can provide valuable insights for traders.
- In the context of the dollar-Swiss weekly chart, ICT highlights the potential for price to retrace and expand within a previous range, based on the inability to sustain above equal highs.
- ICT explains the concept of consequent encroachment in fair value gaps, where the midpoint of the gap is called the mean threshold and is considered a permissible entry point.
- ICT highlights the importance of looking for specific scenarios in the weekly chart, such as a down week followed by a run-up week, and how these scenarios can help traders make informed decisions.
30:13 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding market bias and using higher timeframes to develop a trading model.
- ICT demonstrates how to identify institutional selling by analyzing price action above the opening price on a 15-minute chart.
- ICT is looking for a weekly bearish expansion, with a target of reaching a higher low than the weekly open.
- The market is in a distribution phase, with each rally above the weekly open allowing for another level of shorting.
35:49 - Price action models for swing trading.
- ICT identifies a potential trading opportunity by analyzing the weekly chart and identifying a range that has been defined by the low of the week.
- ICT takes profits at 25 pips and locks in the stop loss at the same level, while leaving the remaining balance of 25 pips on the weapon position to be taken off later.
- Michael provides 15 different trading models for swing trading, with the goal of helping traders formulate their own unique approach.
- In a specific example, Michael demonstrates how to trade a breaker pattern with a 25-pip entry and a stop above the high of the breaker, targeting liquidity and a potential big expansion down.
41:35 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT teaches how to identify fair value and enter trades with a stop loss above the highest up close.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding the information provided and using it to fine-tune trading strategies.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:02 --> 00:00:16 | ICT: Okay, folks, welcome back. We are in procession model number eight, talking about 6% trading model per month is objective with the expectation and |
| 2 | 00:00:17 --> 00:00:31 | aspirations of doubling equity over a calendar year. And we're gonna be dealing with building the career with 25 pips per week. Can you see it Price Action |
| 3 | 00:00:31 --> 00:00:43 | Model number eight, the 6% trading model, building the career on 25 pips per week now the stage is going to be framed on a weekly range expansion. Now if |
| 4 | 00:00:43 --> 00:00:57 | you've gone through the mentorship, obviously, we know there's a generalized theme here. We're looking for the effects of liquidity runs in price action. And |
| 5 | 00:00:57 --> 00:01:10 | it's basically an expansion the upside or downside. So if we're going to be looking for our objective of 25 pips per week number one, let's start off with |
| 6 | 00:01:10 --> 00:01:26 | 25 pips is not a miniscule amount. Now, it's only miniscule. If you compare it with the Instagram guys that tell you they make 1500 pips every single month. I |
| 7 | 00:01:26 --> 00:01:37 | don't make 1500 pips a month. I don't try to do that. I think it's too much work and effort required to do that. Could I make 1000 pips a month? Yes, I believe I |
| 8 | 00:01:37 --> 00:01:48 | could. Do I want to put the work in? That's required to do that? No, no. Okay. So you can call me lazy, I'm just calling it a smart worker, I want to have my |
| 9 | 00:01:48 --> 00:01:59 | time free. Okay, so this model is designed to amplify what has already been explained in free tutorials, but also kind of like give you the nuts and bolts |
| 10 | 00:01:59 --> 00:02:11 | of what you've gleaned from the mentorship and simplify it in such a way where we don't have to try to grab every potential component that makes up my material |
| 11 | 00:02:11 --> 00:02:21 | and concepts. And in fact, that's the model for each unique model that you see here in the 12. And anything that we create in the future or that you've created |
| 12 | 00:02:21 --> 00:02:31 | on your own by way of using the mentorship content. So what I mean by that is, we don't have to try to take the kitchen sink approach where we try and throw |
| 13 | 00:02:31 --> 00:02:42 | everything into our model, I get a lot of emails from members that are in charter membership. And they state that they're trying to find a place for SEO |
| 14 | 00:02:42 --> 00:02:53 | tea, or they're trying to find a place for the standard deviations or they're trying to find a place. You don't have to have every single component. There is |
| 15 | 00:02:53 --> 00:03:05 | a sweet spot for every specific concept. There are ways of making the model where you don't include every single thing. For instance, if you're going to be |
| 16 | 00:03:05 --> 00:03:15 | a swing trader, you don't necessarily need the intraday standard deviations in central bank. Dealers range, you don't need flour, you don't need Asian range |
| 17 | 00:03:15 --> 00:03:30 | deviations whatsoever, you need that, because it's a larger model. Obviously, the intraday trader or a scalper day trader, you know, you want to make a |
| 18 | 00:03:30 --> 00:03:41 | conscious effort to try to know something about the standard deviations because they do, in my opinion, nailed down a level of precision that's unrivaled. But |
| 19 | 00:03:41 --> 00:03:51 | that's beyond the scope of this discussion. I just want to remind everyone, because I've gotten emails from several of the tribe members, and their |
| 20 | 00:03:51 --> 00:04:01 | questions are now saying this about five members. It's not like the whole slew of you. But five of them had kind of like the same type of concerns, you know, |
| 21 | 00:04:01 --> 00:04:09 | what about this? And why isn't the model and it just seems like, you know, we learn things that aren't useful, or it's a lot of filler. Now, it's not filler. |
| 22 | 00:04:09 --> 00:04:21 | It's things that I'm trying to start you off with rather simple models, there without the foundational, okay, so allow allows you and I come back to these |
| 23 | 00:04:21 --> 00:04:30 | later on, and build on them. That's the intent of the 12 price action models. I'm not delivering these things. Okay, well, my Hansard wipe clean up now you |
| 24 | 00:04:30 --> 00:04:41 | have added, I'm going to be building on these throughout our time together. I don't want to have any more than these specific 12 Because it's a limitless man |
| 25 | 00:04:41 --> 00:04:51 | endless really amount of price action miles that you can create. So I came up with 12 Seven because it's 12 months in a year. And it gave me an opportunity to |
| 26 | 00:04:51 --> 00:05:02 | give 12 models for the members that come into the mentorship. So obviously the first class has to wait a little bit more Longer than would otherwise be |
| 27 | 00:05:02 --> 00:05:14 | expected. There is certain components that you have that will repeat in all the models, but then obviously there's other things that aren't going to always crop |
| 28 | 00:05:14 --> 00:05:28 | up. Okay, so when we first sit down with this model, we're trying to ascertain whether or not the weekly chart is indicating to us that it wants to expand on |
| 29 | 00:05:28 --> 00:05:38 | the upside or expand on the downside. Now why are we focusing there? Well, because the weekly range allows a handsome amount of pips, okay? The range is |
| 30 | 00:05:40 --> 00:05:58 | conducive for finding a very easy number of setups that would want your study and stocking of a 25 Pip move. 25 pips, again, is not miniscule, because if we |
| 31 | 00:05:58 --> 00:06:12 | look at the how trading started as my start, if we looked at what I was trying to accomplish as an SMP trader, I was only trying to get two handles. It's at |
| 32 | 00:06:12 --> 00:06:26 | best three handles a day that I got for it was like, a huge day. And it's not what you're trying to capture in terms of pips that makes you wealthy. It's what |
| 33 | 00:06:26 --> 00:06:39 | you do with the pips that you consistently make, that makes you wealthy. So I say that to say that you can do a model that is 15 pips a week, if you're |
| 34 | 00:06:40 --> 00:06:51 | inclined and say, Okay, well, I just wanna make it really easy for myself and just I'm just gonna do a 15 Pip attempt to afford 2% risk and I make it or I |
| 35 | 00:06:51 --> 00:07:03 | don't, okay, if I don't then there it is. You take a trade with 15 pips stop 15 pips here first, lock in. So if it goes to 15 pips, you sit in on a gravy train, |
| 36 | 00:07:03 --> 00:07:16 | which is going to give you nothing, stop out, breakeven for the trade materializes and unfolds more, you lock in your 15 pips, where it's available, |
| 37 | 00:07:17 --> 00:07:30 | pays let it run. This model is not designed to lock you into the state of mind that 25 pips is all there is that your goal. But if you are limiting yourself, |
| 38 | 00:07:30 --> 00:07:43 | and this is not what I'm trying to teach you all this time, we're not trying to limit our potential reward. We're trying to limit our potential risk, and manage |
| 39 | 00:07:43 --> 00:07:52 | that to a point of which where we can fund the position that means take something out of it, and manage it in such a way where hopefully it can be |
| 40 | 00:07:53 --> 00:08:03 | managed to the degree that allows us to get much more than 25 pips. So the model is that yes, you're looking for the low hanging fruit 25 pips, yes. If that's |
| 41 | 00:08:03 --> 00:08:11 | all you get, you're comfortable with that you can turn, there's no reason to be upset about it. That's not also to say that if you don't get your 25 pips that |
| 42 | 00:08:11 --> 00:08:20 | you should be upset, don't, don't be upset. Because there's so many setups that come to fruition over the course of a week, all you need is one pair. So if you |
| 43 | 00:08:20 --> 00:08:29 | focus your attention on that one pair, and you say you do something wrong, or you read it wrong, you execute wrong, and it doesn't pan out profitably. That's |
| 44 | 00:08:29 --> 00:08:37 | not to say, throw away what you've learned or your approach. It just means come back next week. Now, it's going to take a lot of discipline for you to want to |
| 45 | 00:08:37 --> 00:08:49 | do that. And patience. And a lot of you're still cultivating that. But it's a necessity. Okay, so I want you to understand that 25 pips is absolutely doable. |
| 46 | 00:08:49 --> 00:08:56 | I think that anyone that goes through my free tutorials, should have already arrived at that. That's what I personally believe, now doesn't mean that all of |
| 47 | 00:08:56 --> 00:09:05 | you were in that boat, when you first started in the mentorship, it just means that I have a great deal of expectation on the students that have gone through |
| 48 | 00:09:05 --> 00:09:17 | every single video I've ever produced. And the free stuff. So here, this is kind of like to remind you how easy you want to keep it. And then overtime if you |
| 49 | 00:09:17 --> 00:09:26 | want to add more things to it, not to make it complicated, but to help you with that to help you with your precision and your trade management. That's all the |
| 50 | 00:09:26 --> 00:09:34 | tools are designed to do. They're not trying to prevent you from having a loss because you're going to lose. It's not to prevent you from getting it wrong, |
| 51 | 00:09:34 --> 00:09:43 | because you're going to get it wrong. It's not to help you believe that you're going to be better than me or 25 other people that's trying to do a $1,000 |
| 52 | 00:09:43 --> 00:09:52 | contest on Twitter. It's irrelevant. All you're trying to do is be better than you were yesterday. Over time. If you keep that up, believe me you're gonna be |
| 53 | 00:09:52 --> 00:10:01 | in a phenomenal state of being for a traitor. So the weekly range expansion we're looking for bullish or bearish pneus Okay. And what defines that |
| 54 | 00:10:01 --> 00:10:10 | everything that he's taught in terms of institutional order flow? You're applying it to the weekly chart. Okay, so what we're looking at is basically |
| 55 | 00:10:10 --> 00:10:22 | month 12 content, that top down analysis, that processing of the higher timeframe down the lower timeframe. But we're focusing primarily on what that |
| 56 | 00:10:22 --> 00:10:32 | weekly chart is suggesting to us. Is it bullish? Is it bearish, okay, by that without going through all of the 12 months of content of mentorship as is that |
| 57 | 00:10:32 --> 00:10:41 | with these profiles in price action models are intended to do because you should already have a bank of understanding and a wealth of resources in your mind and |
| 58 | 00:10:41 --> 00:10:49 | retention of what has already been taught to you. So when I talk to you, you have now the same language and that's what this whole process has been 12 months |
| 59 | 00:10:49 --> 00:10:59 | core content so allows me to sit back and and leisurely way like this, and talk to you in a comfortable tone comfortable manner where I'm not trying to get you |
| 60 | 00:10:59 --> 00:11:14 | technically wealthy with my, my speech requirements or that I can do that. But we're looking at that we arrange expansion and the purpose of the weekly ranges |
| 61 | 00:11:14 --> 00:11:26 | because if we were to say that the average weekly range is 150 to 200 pips a week. Now, that's not to say going out there to start measuring and come back to |
| 62 | 00:11:26 --> 00:11:36 | No, it's not like that. I'm just saying, I'm saying from my personal opinion, that's what I think of the market every single week. does it deliver that many |
| 63 | 00:11:36 --> 00:11:45 | pips? No, like, if you follow one currency pair, it's gonna consistently give you 150 to 200 pips a week, from high to low. No, it's not. But that's how I |
| 64 | 00:11:45 --> 00:11:57 | internalize it. So if I'm only looking for 25 pips, or if I'm trying to instill in you the thought process that you're looking for 25 pips amongst 152 pips a |
| 65 | 00:11:57 --> 00:12:11 | week, are you expecting a whole lot? No, you're not. And that's exactly what you want to have in mind as a consistently, profit profitable while professional |
| 66 | 00:12:11 --> 00:12:24 | traders is called that, because you're trying to do things that are easily repeated, consistently, not trying to get an Olympic feat of gold medal status, |
| 67 | 00:12:24 --> 00:12:36 | every single trading encounter that you have them on the marketplace, but for that item reasonable, okay, it's not something you should expect. So just know |
| 68 | 00:12:36 --> 00:12:45 | that what we are discussing here is achievable. All of you have the ability to do this. And the problem is that sometimes when you do it, you don't feel it's |
| 69 | 00:12:45 --> 00:12:54 | enough. Because you're on social media, you watch me do something. And it's like, well, I need to really show him. He wouldn't impress me. Don't work. Don't |
| 70 | 00:12:54 --> 00:13:04 | worry about impressing me. Okay, don't impress me. It's not about impressing me. You need to impress upon yourself, the due diligence that is necessary for you |
| 71 | 00:13:04 --> 00:13:15 | to do what is required and be content with enough. Okay, and 25 pips a week is enough. So we look for the weekly range to expand the bullish side or bear side |
| 72 | 00:13:15 --> 00:13:26 | seasonals can help in this regard. We've obviously given lots of key points in the year where certain markets are more inclined to go higher or lower relative |
| 73 | 00:13:26 --> 00:13:35 | to their seasonal tendency. But again, it's not a panacea. There's obviously with this model, there's no need to call the weekly, high and low, which is a |
| 74 | 00:13:35 --> 00:13:44 | great deal of liberty there because some of you are still demanding that of yourselves and you have to grow into that. Okay, once I want to kill, we'll |
| 75 | 00:13:44 --> 00:13:54 | cover that in Module nine, which is after this one. And we'll talk about things that help you do that, but we're looking for bread and butter setups in the |
| 76 | 00:13:54 --> 00:14:01 | statements that repeat every single week, and not requiring the absolute high belief of the low. We were just looking for that little pound of flesh in the |
| 77 | 00:14:01 --> 00:14:13 | middle, the easy reachable fruit, okay? We're not limiting again, ourselves to 25 pips a week what we're looking for is one good entry inside of that weekly |
| 78 | 00:14:13 --> 00:14:24 | range. We're going to be able to fund our position in other words, lock in 25 pips, and then allow it to grow from there. This model, we're not trying to bank |
| 79 | 00:14:24 --> 00:14:31 | anything right away. We're not trying to say okay, well, I'm gonna take partials here. That's not what we're doing in this model. This model, we're looking to |
| 80 | 00:14:31 --> 00:14:40 | walk in 25 pips so that was that mean? We're looking for an opportunity for the market to move beyond 25 pips. Have a retracement and then expand again and then |
| 81 | 00:14:40 --> 00:14:49 | we can lock in 25 pips. Then we can take profits on partials above 40 pips and 60 pips and 80 pips that that allows us to do something like that, but we're |
| 82 | 00:14:50 --> 00:15:02 | only really trying to manage the position initially to remove the risk and lock in 25 pips once that's done We've made our objective for the week than anything |
| 83 | 00:15:02 --> 00:15:14 | happens beyond that is a bonus. So our majority of our focus is going to be on where the markets reaching within the next 50 to 75 pips inside that weekly |
| 84 | 00:15:14 --> 00:15:28 | expansion. So if we're looking at the reasonable possibility that 150 to 200 picks can occur on a weekly expansion, okay, again, that I'm really focusing on |
| 85 | 00:15:28 --> 00:15:35 | the times when the market is predisposed to go higher or lower, there's gonna be times when it's not going to look like it's going to be moving. For instance, |
| 86 | 00:15:35 --> 00:15:43 | like we discussed about a table, you know, it's going to probably stay in a range bound condition. You really want to be looking for your 25 pips in that |
| 87 | 00:15:43 --> 00:15:52 | environment, probably not. Some of you're gonna try to do it, and you're gonna regret it. But you shouldn't always try to push it. So if we're focusing our |
| 88 | 00:15:52 --> 00:16:03 | attention on where that markets going to reach in the next 50 to 75 pips, can you get 1/3 of that range or one half of that range? I'm believing that you can. |
| 89 | 00:16:04 --> 00:16:16 | You really can do it, if you're trading inside that range on a weekly basis. And you're staying in that range from Sunday's open to Friday's close. With respect |
| 90 | 00:16:16 --> 00:16:27 | to if we can agree on that 150 to 200 pips a week is the probable range, not it's going to happen. It's not an average range, it's always doing, it's just a |
| 91 | 00:16:27 --> 00:16:39 | probable scenario. So it helps me communicate to you that while 25 pips is not minuscule, it is modest in terms of the grand scheme of the potential range that |
| 92 | 00:16:39 --> 00:16:50 | can occur over the weekly timeframe. So if we look at the setups, what we're looking for is the day a week, okay, and when I said earlier that we don't |
| 93 | 00:16:50 --> 00:17:00 | require being in at the high or the low of the week, we don't need that. Because let the professionals price that in. Because we have tools that allow us to get |
| 94 | 00:17:00 --> 00:17:08 | in sync with that, and then ride the coattails. We're not trying to be smarter than them when I try to beat them to the punch. The I caught the high I was in |
| 95 | 00:17:08 --> 00:17:20 | two pips. 11 Nine are called the high, okay? It's not what dismantles focuses. It's designed to get you in a consistent way of thinking and harvesting 25 pips |
| 96 | 00:17:20 --> 00:17:30 | every single week, and allowing it to grow from 25 pips inside of the range of the weekly range. What I mean by day, the week set up, we're looking for the |
| 97 | 00:17:30 --> 00:17:41 | daily high for Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday to form and also provide that overlap of the weekly, higher low. So if we're bullish, we're expecting the |
| 98 | 00:17:41 --> 00:17:51 | weekly range expansion. On the upside. We're looking for the Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday. Well, once that forms, let it form, we're not trying to chase it, |
| 99 | 00:17:51 --> 00:18:01 | we're trying to nail it down. We're waiting for it to form. Now, there's things that we've covered in the mentorship that helps facilitate that. And I'm going |
| 100 | 00:18:01 --> 00:18:09 | to talk about some of these things, we get the charts but we're not requiring this model to put us in at the high the week on a bearish week or the low the |
| 101 | 00:18:09 --> 00:18:18 | week on the bullish week. It's not necessary. Again, it's not unfortunate 25 pips, that's all we're trying to capture here. And if you do the math on them, |
| 102 | 00:18:19 --> 00:18:28 | using compound interest, that's the benefit of this model. Not doing a whole lot, not working really hard to get it, but letting the numbers do all the work. |
| 103 | 00:18:29 --> 00:18:40 | And the pattern that we're gonna be focusing on is inefficiencies, inefficiencies, fair value guessing Cody voids and runs on liquidity into pools |
| 104 | 00:18:40 --> 00:18:50 | of liquidity. Okay, so, again, from a graphic depiction what we have here is a range expansion. |
| 105 | 00:18:50 --> 00:19:02 | We're looking for the next 50 to 100 pips. Okay, where are we? Where are we going in that next 50 to 100 pips, I originally taught this model like this, but |
| 106 | 00:19:02 --> 00:19:12 | I want to kind of bring it back a little bit to 75 pips, which helps also segue into price action rule number nine, which is obviously one shot one kill the |
| 107 | 00:19:13 --> 00:19:21 | weekly range expansion, what we're trying to do is identify the likely or most probable direction of the next weekly bar or candle, and in what direction it's |
| 108 | 00:19:21 --> 00:19:31 | going to expand in the day of the week, we're expecting an anchor point to form on a Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday in order to frame a trade setup. We're looking |
| 109 | 00:19:31 --> 00:19:44 | for an anchor point to start the idea of our pdra matrix. If we're waiting for a bearish scenario to unfold, in other words, a weekly expense to the downside. |
| 110 | 00:19:45 --> 00:19:53 | We're looking for a high performer on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday. If, for instance, as this example shows here in your chart, Monday's consolidation |
| 111 | 00:19:53 --> 00:20:02 | Tuesday starts to drop down, which obviously doesn't really give you a retracement of any economy into a kill zone. But when Say we punch up into the |
| 112 | 00:20:02 --> 00:20:13 | equal highs that were formed on Monday. So Wednesday creates the probable high of the week. That means we can train on Thursday. Think about that Thursday. We |
| 113 | 00:20:13 --> 00:20:22 | don't need to be in on Monday. We don't need to be on Tuesday. We're going to be on Wednesday. But you said the high low forms on Monday? Yes, it does. It does. |
| 114 | 00:20:22 --> 00:20:34 | But you don't have to be in at the high of the week. In a bearish week, you don't have to stop forcing yourself in a realistic mode, grow into those things |
| 115 | 00:20:34 --> 00:20:42 | make those long term goals for your career. But right now, it's not, it's not reasonable for you to expect to be able to do that on a consistent basis. Stop |
| 116 | 00:20:42 --> 00:20:51 | with all the high and lofty ideas just because you went through the core content doesn't make you a master trader, you have to grow into that. And you start with |
| 117 | 00:20:51 --> 00:21:05 | reasonable low ideas like this anymore. Oh from them. And obviously, the inefficiency of liquidity runs is we're utilizing gaps in liquidity. And again, |
| 118 | 00:21:05 --> 00:21:16 | it's very gaps and voids and liquidity pools to facilitate an entry in the direction of the liquid expansion framed on anchor points from Monday, Tuesday |
| 119 | 00:21:16 --> 00:21:25 | or Wednesday. Again, I say anchor points here. I know what you're thinking. What's the point? I remember hearing about that. All I'm stating is that you're |
| 120 | 00:21:25 --> 00:21:35 | going to be utilizing on a bearish week for expected to see a bearish week expansion to the downside, you're gonna be looking at Monday's high Tuesday's |
| 121 | 00:21:35 --> 00:21:45 | higher Wednesday's high, okay, and you'd be looking for movements away from the high down, and then looking for inefficiencies in that range. And then you'll be |
| 122 | 00:21:45 --> 00:21:57 | targeting the liquidity below old loves. That's all your framing, it's really simple. Okay, really, really simple. If we know that the market is probably |
| 123 | 00:21:57 --> 00:22:08 | going to go lower, and we make a higher high on Wednesday, as we see this table here. That means that Wednesday has a high probability of creating the high the |
| 124 | 00:22:08 --> 00:22:17 | week. That's beneficial for us. But if you do watch, I won't kill it. Again. This is focusing primarily on looking for 25 pips inside that range. |
| 125 | 00:22:22 --> 00:22:30 | So take a look at this chart here. And this is actually the dollar Swiss. And I have mapped out here a few things showing you the day of the week, Monday, |
| 126 | 00:22:30 --> 00:22:41 | Tuesday and Wednesday, a liquidity pool that was targeted for a potential scenario. If we look to go lower when weekly range, obviously, we can expect a |
| 127 | 00:22:41 --> 00:22:51 | weekly Judas swing or weekly protection to the upside. It neutralizing any bias that we're currently inducing buyers, so that we built a larger liquidity pool |
| 128 | 00:22:51 --> 00:23:07 | below the marketplace, little old lows in the form itself that once we see Wednesday break down, it creates a fair Vega. So on Thursday, we see that market |
| 129 | 00:23:07 --> 00:23:20 | projection the upside, Judas swing, runs right up into the fair value gap, creating your classic sell day. For each day templates targeting a liquidity run |
| 130 | 00:23:21 --> 00:23:33 | in the form of some stock report. We have a 30 Pip greed mapped out here it's flipped over 30 pips that actually makes that spike low. But it was a 30 Pip run |
| 131 | 00:23:33 --> 00:23:44 | below that old low. It extends wider than our typical 1020 30 pips, because it's in the direction of our expected weekly range expansion. So when we're looking |
| 132 | 00:23:44 --> 00:23:54 | at this model, we're not just saying if we get in around that 9985 level on Thursday, December 6, in London, trading into that fear value gap that formed on |
| 133 | 00:23:54 --> 00:24:07 | Wednesday, because we have a full fledged market structure break on Wednesdays low, we trade into Asia on Thursday, on December 6, then we have the juicing up, |
| 134 | 00:24:07 --> 00:24:19 | everyone in the retail world gets excited about that, but are still trading by the fair value. So 9599 90 in that area, we could be a seller, and it creates an |
| 135 | 00:24:19 --> 00:24:31 | optimal trade entry for a later entry pattern. Again, trading around that 99 at institutional level. So it's a very sort of near chain at the end of the fair |
| 136 | 00:24:31 --> 00:24:45 | value get it seen or hear this argument here, and then finally gets a boost in targets what the lows here and the low of the week. As you would expect on a |
| 137 | 00:24:45 --> 00:24:55 | weekly downside expansion. It's no target that large liquidity pool they're created here. So this is engineering liquidity. This repeats so many times. It |
| 138 | 00:24:55 --> 00:25:06 | doesn't matter. If you focus on one pair, you know for The rest of your career, initially you want to, but over time, you'll be able to go through quickly, just |
| 139 | 00:25:06 --> 00:25:15 | about every single currency pair. If you if you're looking through the pattern like this, you'll just go through every single one of them. lickety split. I |
| 140 | 00:25:15 --> 00:25:23 | mean, it takes no time to find these setups. So you won't be able to find something every single week to get your 25 pips doesn't mean you have to do it |
| 141 | 00:25:23 --> 00:25:37 | every single day. Okay, so this year against Dow Swiss, we'll take a closer look now of what this offered. Here is the dollar Swiss weekly chart. Okay, I want |
| 142 | 00:25:37 --> 00:25:50 | you to take a look at it before I show you any more detail. What do you see? What you see is equal highs right there. And right above and you know what we'll |
| 143 | 00:25:50 --> 00:25:58 | be wrestling, there's five stops. So we see the price action run those bias stops, and then it came back then we saw price trade back below was equal highs. |
| 144 | 00:25:59 --> 00:26:07 | So given the market conditions right now look at that chart. What would you expect to see? Well, this model what we're doing is we're trying to frame on a |
| 145 | 00:26:07 --> 00:26:15 | weekly basis, where's price most likely going to expand to what what we're going to be looking for a rebalancing of sorts, because we press two equal highs, you |
| 146 | 00:26:15 --> 00:26:28 | could span the range. And Now chances are it's going to want to go back down inside of this previous range. Those BizStats be ran sets us up for a likely |
| 147 | 00:26:28 --> 00:26:36 | retracement. Why? Because it has not been able to stay above there's equal highs. So that's a read. So now what are we looking for in efficiencies below |
| 148 | 00:26:36 --> 00:26:49 | the marketplace? When you hear we have our last reference point where by side was offered, but then sell side was offered later on. In other words, we have |
| 149 | 00:26:50 --> 00:26:59 | the high form, that's the new where that anchor point is here. So we we try to hire them from the high down there to close, we had sell side delivery, the next |
| 150 | 00:26:59 --> 00:27:08 | candle opens, we offered sell side delivery again and then expanded up. So I'm using this high here, which is basically the same as our opening. That's our |
| 151 | 00:27:08 --> 00:27:27 | initial level of bouncing, if you will, then below it, we have this candle here. Why not? That's what Michael, because all these candles are all consecutive. So |
| 152 | 00:27:27 --> 00:27:39 | this is the highest one inside that range where biocide was offered before this candle went beyond it. Now, if we broke lower than this is so close, I would |
| 153 | 00:27:39 --> 00:27:47 | even say it then I would go to this one. But we start off with reasonable levels like this. So if price trades down to these, okay, we could recalibrate and |
| 154 | 00:27:47 --> 00:27:59 | rebounds price action as a downside objective. Now what we're looking for weekly range to draw to this, try and get down to it. So we framed our ideal scenario, |
| 155 | 00:27:59 --> 00:28:07 | we're looking for bearish weeks, not weak weeks, because now we have this objective in mind where we can rebound, why not continues to go higher, it could |
| 156 | 00:28:07 --> 00:28:16 | and we can be wrong doing this. But given the context of what's being shown here in the chart, it favors the likelihood of wandering around here and rebalance. |
| 157 | 00:28:21 --> 00:28:31 | Going forward, this was the result of it. We have this nice big down week here that we have a nice big run up week. And then we have a down week. And then |
| 158 | 00:28:31 --> 00:28:45 | another down week. Inside of this range, this high in this high. This is our fair value gap or inefficiency. Okay, so we have buyside imbalance sellside |
| 159 | 00:28:45 --> 00:28:56 | inefficiency, it means there has not been enough sellside offered inside of this range. The midpoint of that, okay is consequent encroachment, you think for your |
| 160 | 00:28:56 --> 00:29:09 | library scratchpad. With order blocks, the middle of it, we refer to as mean threshold, when we're looking at a fair value gap or a range of fair value. The |
| 161 | 00:29:09 --> 00:29:18 | midpoint of that is called consequent encroachment. And what that means is this is expected and it could stop there and still be considered filling fair value. |
| 162 | 00:29:20 --> 00:29:29 | We would expect it to get down to the lower end. But if it goes here, that's acceptable. Okay. So when we're dealing with fair value gaps, or liquidity |
| 163 | 00:29:29 --> 00:29:39 | voids, when it goes to the middle of that gap, it's called consequent encroachment. It's permissible in terms of allowing that as insufficient and it |
| 164 | 00:29:39 --> 00:29:47 | doesn't have to go any lower than that. Okay? Again, with looking at waterblocks its mean threshold for the equilibrium price point in the middle in fair value |
| 165 | 00:29:47 --> 00:29:59 | gaps. Entry tournaments changes, consequent encouragement. So price trades down to that. Now once we have these levels in mind, and what we're looking for each |
| 166 | 00:29:59 --> 00:30:07 | week We're looking for this scenario unfold. Now, this week didn't create a down close week. And we'll look at that when we get into the intraday portions of |
| 167 | 00:30:07 --> 00:30:20 | this teaching. But we have this week here this week here, and then finally get down into it. So it builds a lot of the understanding of telling the bias, which |
| 168 | 00:30:20 --> 00:30:27 | direction the market of treatment, you started with the chart, it'll tell you what you need to be focusing on. But the problem is, you'll look at the chart, |
| 169 | 00:30:27 --> 00:30:35 | and you got to take so long to develop and create a close on that candle basis on a weekly chart. You're not interested in that, give me a one minute chart, |
| 170 | 00:30:35 --> 00:30:43 | you may find that a chart, it's more exciting. You want to be consistent, you start with these higher timeframes, because it's going to give you your model. |
| 171 | 00:30:44 --> 00:30:54 | Okay? Are you a buyer program or sub program? If you're going to be a buyer, you focus on certain things that you look for intraday, and you're weak to be a |
| 172 | 00:30:54 --> 00:31:02 | buyer, and stick with that narrative. You regardless if it takes you out? If it stops, yeah, so what is that in the wrong time, it does not change, the |
| 173 | 00:31:02 --> 00:31:11 | narrative generally, will be charged, if you trade with 15 An entry doesn't, it doesn't change, that just means you did something wrong, or he quickly or waited |
| 174 | 00:31:11 --> 00:31:20 | too long. Or you just put your stop off in the wrong spot, or you just read it wrong period. Well, you didn't do something ahead of economic news in driver |
| 175 | 00:31:20 --> 00:31:28 | came down and then you stop, then it probably involves later on. So let's go to the charts and take a closer look at this. And we'll see how this model pans |
| 176 | 00:31:28 --> 00:31:43 | out. Okay, so we have our chart on a 15 minute basis. And we're looking at that same underlying dollar Swiss scenario. You see the biceps ran over here on |
| 177 | 00:31:43 --> 00:32:00 | Mondays Hi. And I've included the weekly open. So this car, we could actually move to swing here. Here, again, all of this reach above the opening price. This |
| 178 | 00:32:00 --> 00:32:09 | is classic institutional selling, look at all of this price action above all the highs, lows distribution, |
| 179 | 00:32:10 --> 00:32:18 | when you frame it in the context, as we've done so far in this model, is easy to see. Now obviously, we have the benefit of hindsight. But you'll see, by |
| 180 | 00:32:18 --> 00:32:30 | practicing this and studying it, it repeats almost every single week, it happens everywhere, some commodity, or some currency or some sock or so index, something |
| 181 | 00:32:30 --> 00:32:41 | will work like this. The problem is it's obviously, if you have 1000, darky xoma in a wall, you're gonna get a bullseye eventually. I'm not trying to promote |
| 182 | 00:32:41 --> 00:32:55 | that idea. I'm saying that if we have the likelihood of reading price action accurately, over time building experience, you will see these things, it's not |
| 183 | 00:32:55 --> 00:33:04 | imperative that you get it right every single week, nailing the high low. Again, that's not what we're trying to do here. We want to see where it will likely for |
| 184 | 00:33:04 --> 00:33:15 | now we are looking for a weekly bearish expansion. And we see it on Monday here, but doesn't really retrace back up in anything. On Tuesday, this run up in here |
| 185 | 00:33:15 --> 00:33:26 | is outside beyond the scope of the New York session. So the run above my knees high in Tuesday's high on Wednesday, sets the tone for what profile for the |
| 186 | 00:33:26 --> 00:33:37 | week, high the week Wednesday. Martin comes down on Thursday, as you expect, we're not chasing prices low and we want to see it go up. Well, what's the level |
| 187 | 00:33:37 --> 00:33:50 | we're looking for? Well, we have a range, the load accretes here prior to this run up, we have this high in this low. There's our anchor point here Wednesday |
| 188 | 00:33:51 --> 00:34:00 | to the low that's foreign prior to this run out. This gives us our pdra Matrix framework. So if we put our fib on again, it's not to look at Fibonacci because |
| 189 | 00:34:00 --> 00:34:10 | it does not really working off of optimal trade entries opportunities as easy way for me to communicate to my kids. And obviously now as a result of you being |
| 190 | 00:34:10 --> 00:34:25 | here and being my student, you learning also downwind of discount and premium. So here equilibrium or anchor points here. Thursday creates that initial drop |
| 191 | 00:34:25 --> 00:34:36 | down or chasing that we will see that we see price rally up to a premium array in the form of a fair value gap also trades up into as you would expect optimal |
| 192 | 00:34:36 --> 00:34:48 | trade entry and above equilibrium. So graded premium here, where its price was reached for discount. What is the discount rate that we'd be looking for? Well |
| 193 | 00:34:48 --> 00:35:00 | we have a gap in here down close candle here for butcher block. The rejection block we have vacuum block we have the fold low than the Sell Stop supressing |
| 194 | 00:35:00 --> 00:35:10 | below it. And then we have the over here and all of the PD arrays that are in here. But because we are working with the context of a weekly expansion, we're |
| 195 | 00:35:10 --> 00:35:16 | not going to nickel and dime the market saying okay, well, it's going to get to here. And I'll take some profits off here, or we're going to take something off |
| 196 | 00:35:16 --> 00:35:24 | over here. Now we're looking for this run on this low. We're expecting the monthly rains expand beyond what's already been made. Monday, Tuesday and |
| 197 | 00:35:24 --> 00:35:32 | Wednesday, because really, it's nothing consolidation. And this is I said better thing to see on Wednesday, making a higher high grade, the weekly high out |
| 198 | 00:35:32 --> 00:35:42 | Monday's equal high, Tuesday's high. All of this is distribution, and it's above the weekly open. So we see our weekly Judas swing. Every time it rallies like |
| 199 | 00:35:42 --> 00:35:54 | above the weekly open, this is allowing them to do one more level of some short. So this is the target here. Now. Once he gets below here, like below Remy stops, |
| 200 | 00:35:55 --> 00:36:07 | that's where we can look to scale out portions. Above and beyond 25 pips, what you need to train your eyes to do with this model is this is 25 pips in a |
| 201 | 00:36:07 --> 00:36:16 | graphic depiction of range. So this is all you need. So you're trained to teach your eye to see, where's this in this tray in this chart, okay, and this is the |
| 202 | 00:36:19 --> 00:36:27 | the perspective of the lesson. It may not be like this, what I'm actually trading, maybe you're a little bit further out for like a little bit more data. |
| 203 | 00:36:28 --> 00:36:38 | But if we're looking to go short here, inside the sphere, right yet, using the low end of the pay gap, low hanging fruit, it doesn't even need to get below |
| 204 | 00:36:38 --> 00:36:49 | this low, which is what we targeted initially, to give us this 25 pips see that. So when we get short here, or on this optimal trade entry here, because it's |
| 205 | 00:36:49 --> 00:36:59 | self it's two criteria, or above equilibrium anchor point from Wednesday, the range is defined here. But again, we're looking for when we click say to a |
| 206 | 00:36:59 --> 00:37:08 | downside, so we're not looking at this 15 minute chart and getting hypnotized by saying well I want to be a buyer. No, we're sticking with the narrative that's |
| 207 | 00:37:08 --> 00:37:21 | been derived on the weekly chart. Concentrated you're here or here. Right you get better when once it goes below here, we're locking in 25 pips, we're done. |
| 208 | 00:37:22 --> 00:37:31 | We're not taking partials until we get below here. Why? Because it's expanded that weekly range down weekly range has only been defined by the low of the week |
| 209 | 00:37:31 --> 00:37:50 | here on Tuesday. Well we have Thursday and Friday still. So you want to take some profits below here. Keep our stop locked in at 25 pips all this is where we |
| 210 | 00:37:50 --> 00:37:57 | take profits at if we get 10 pips below it takes them too long to get 20 pips below, take something off. If you get 30 pips below, take something off, then |
| 211 | 00:37:57 --> 00:38:05 | when you sit through this retracement, you're not worried about it, it knocks you out what's the remaining balance of 25 pips on that weapon position that's |
| 212 | 00:38:05 --> 00:38:14 | been left on and after partials have been taken below here. You're not worried about that. And if you're already you got to get over that. But we are able to |
| 213 | 00:38:14 --> 00:38:27 | leave to stop it at 25 pips locked in and allow all this to happen later on. So on Friday, we make a lower low on the week, not by much. But still, as soon as |
| 214 | 00:38:27 --> 00:38:40 | we take that low here out, take something off again, or close the entire trade. Now if we're in a position trade, or swing trading this entry back here, you |
| 215 | 00:38:40 --> 00:38:50 | just put it in there locking 25 pips as your entry model, because you can use this model to get in your long term swing trades. How about that, you need to |
| 216 | 00:38:50 --> 00:38:58 | give me 15 different trading models Michael to do swing trading. Now though, I'm giving everything already in the mentorship. I'm just giving you framework and |
| 217 | 00:38:58 --> 00:39:06 | foundation in these price action models to get you thinking what you already learned, where you plug and play those things. That's what these price action |
| 218 | 00:39:06 --> 00:39:23 | models do. They're nearly suggestions to help you formulate your own unique approach. So this range here again, is 25 pips, if we looked at the idea of this |
| 219 | 00:39:23 --> 00:39:36 | being a breaker, because it is we have a high, low and high, higher high the previous one. So we have a high, this higher than the previous high was the low |
| 220 | 00:39:36 --> 00:39:48 | and between right here, lowest down close candle here. Use the body right there, closes very fine. So if we train back up into it, not the time of day to do it. |
| 221 | 00:39:48 --> 00:40:00 | Here it is here. You can trade short here. And what I'm going to do now, if we get short there. I'm saying if you miss it or you're not thinking of a trade Did |
| 222 | 00:40:00 --> 00:40:11 | you get this one? Don't do this one you managed to we have but you can still use the framework here. Friday train on Friday Yeah, you don't look over 25 pips |
| 223 | 00:40:12 --> 00:40:29 | trades up into the breaker here okay the rain there alright so he is here where you could stop that will go back when you're looking at you have a void in here |
| 224 | 00:40:30 --> 00:40:43 | bearish order block so you have a stop has to be above that. Okay so when I'm talking about 20 pips inside and 20 pips of entry to stop is not even 20 pips. |
| 225 | 00:40:45 --> 00:40:55 | So we can frame that here with that, but what's our target? What's the model tell us? We're targeting runs on liquidity? What does that what we're expecting |
| 226 | 00:40:55 --> 00:41:10 | a big expansion down? That's this oh well. So 25 pips, we'd lock it in here. Once we get below this price point here. We got 25 pips. It's done. Well, it |
| 227 | 00:41:10 --> 00:41:23 | stops. Yeah, here. So what you got 25 pips, that's what the model is designed to do. But if you go in, and you get short, and you go, come hell or high water, |
| 228 | 00:41:23 --> 00:41:33 | I'm leaving my stop here. And I want to get the Romans liquidity here that's on target. Well, then you get it here. Your stop has to stay up here. Less than 20 |
| 229 | 00:41:33 --> 00:41:50 | pips risk. But look what you're getting. You're getting essentially almost 50 pips. Not quite 50 pips, new records do it. So the model is designed to get you |
| 230 | 00:41:50 --> 00:42:02 | thinking in terms of how can you get your 25 pips using what you've already learned. We're looking for fair value, get the frame trade for liquidity voice |
| 231 | 00:42:02 --> 00:42:03 | off of an anchor point. |
| 232 | 00:42:04 --> 00:42:12 | So initially, when guys learned from me, or maybe perhaps, it was just the straw filter and trees and used to fit. That's not what I was doing. I was teaching |
| 233 | 00:42:12 --> 00:42:26 | look at things, conceptually, from a premium to discount without teaching them. The apple tree, a tree, by default is always going to be in the ideal premium or |
| 234 | 00:42:26 --> 00:42:37 | ideal discount level. But it doesn't work. And it will not work with a fib unless it has these elements to it like a pair of a gap. That's what makes it |
| 235 | 00:42:37 --> 00:42:46 | want to go back up there. The question I get is, you know, why does price need to go back up there? Because this is fair value, there has been too much selling |
| 236 | 00:42:46 --> 00:42:58 | in here. So it's a sell side imbalance by side inefficiency. Too much selling, not buying offered. So prices come back up to look real close. And you'll see |
| 237 | 00:42:58 --> 00:43:09 | what I've taught you to me in this video. Consequently, encouragement, middle of a gap. That's what you can do. And it's enough, I entered at the bottom of the |
| 238 | 00:43:09 --> 00:43:19 | gap I allow for this ultimately could come here. And my stock needs to be above it. What is it? What's what's going to be the rejection blocker here, the |
| 239 | 00:43:19 --> 00:43:35 | highest up close. That's where you start would be very reasonable. Especially if you're looking at it in the context of this is your entry point here. And you're |
| 240 | 00:43:35 --> 00:43:55 | looking for a stop loss of layer. There Yeah, right there. Okay, this is where you're taking all this risk. And your goal on the trade, obviously, signed by |
| 241 | 00:43:55 --> 00:44:13 | Pearson net weak, but you're looking for a run below here. So either you get just a poke below that it's better than 35 pips with a risk initially of less |
| 242 | 00:44:13 --> 00:44:21 | than 12 pips, come on, you know, think about it, think about the the measure, find the one. I mean, I want you to teach me how to find the one trade setup. |
| 243 | 00:44:21 --> 00:44:29 | Now don't get me did or you did all that. You need to go through the charts and start looking at what I've already taught you. You're trying to complicate it. |
| 244 | 00:44:29 --> 00:44:37 | And that's the problem, because they've given you a great deal of information. But you don't understand is that great deal information that trauma is core |
| 245 | 00:44:37 --> 00:44:45 | content, you think it's over analyzing too much stuff, too many moving parts, and there's going to be 50 million things that we got to learn beyond that to |
| 246 | 00:44:45 --> 00:44:56 | know is how you use those things, and how I can teach you to fine tune them, where they're gonna speak volumes of insights. Everything else beyond these 12 |
| 247 | 00:44:56 --> 00:45:05 | months that you've gone through, are all going to be experienced faced with me pointing out certain things, it's gonna be like, oh, yeah, now I get that. Now I |
| 248 | 00:45:05 --> 00:45:16 | understand that. See, you're supposed to know everything, generally. But now what we do with the information and where to put the information in terms of |
| 249 | 00:45:17 --> 00:45:27 | trading, when not to do this, when to do it. When's it? When's it not so good to do it? Those are the things you learn from experience. And that's what the whole |
| 250 | 00:45:27 --> 00:45:37 | membership is about. You know, you're here now, and we can talk about things and build on your understanding that will eventually lead to a greater appreciation |
| 251 | 00:45:37 --> 00:45:41 | of what you've been through. So if you found this insightful |