ICT Charter PAM 7 - Universal Trading Model
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-02-09 09:33
Outline
00:12 - A universal trading model using sell-side liquidity runs and fractals.
- The Price Action Model 7 focuses on sell-side liquidity runs and fractals, using a higher time frame to identify liquidity levels and target lower prices.
- The model uses a market maker sell profile with a sell-side delivery, identifying a range of opportunity for equal lows between the target liquidity level and the market price.
03:17 - Technical analysis and market movement.
- ICT expects price to retrace back to a previous low before continuing to move lower, with potential for a larger dynamic move on the downside.
- The algorithm will seek a specific price point or break through a previous low, with potential for a large sell-off on cell stops.
- ICT explains the importance of understanding the liquidity distribution profile and how it relates to the market maker sell model.
- ICT highlights the potential for profit opportunities in the second level of regulation on the buy side of the curve of a sell model, and the importance of being able to identify and take advantage of these opportunities.
09:49 - Analyzing audio transcripts and identifying market structure.
- ICT explains how to identify and trade potential reversals in a market, using examples from his experience.
- ICT explains how to identify and trade on market structure breaks using liquidity distribution profiles.
- Trader discusses evolution of understanding price delivery, from tape reading to electronic trading.
15:59 - Market structure and liquidity analysis.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding market structure in identifying market breaks.
- Ict identifies distribution profiles to capitalize on emotion trading.
19:10 - Market liquidity and trading strategies.
- Trader explains how to use liquidity distribution profile to anticipate market movements.
- Understanding market structure break and stop-run dynamics unlocks trading opportunities.
- ICT explains that he uses a liquidity distribution profile to analyze markets without relying on chart analysis or technical indicators.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding the narrative behind price movements and how it can help predict future behaviors.
25:48 - Market structure and trading strategies.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding the higher timeframe narrative in analyzing price action, as institutional order flow operates on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis.
- The speaker highlights the difference between short-term price runs on lower timeframes and the larger macro trends reflected on the daily chart, and how these factors impact market structure and longevity.
- ICT expects the market to find distribution and selling on a daily chart, with institutional order flow shifting lower.
- On a four-hour or 60-minute timeframe, the market will break down into tight precision, with sell signals expected once it trades into the down close candle.
31:16 - Market structure and price movements.
- ICT: Liquidity bias may cause price drop, wait for evidence of market demand before acting.
- ICT explains market structure shift and potential sell-off triggers.
34:29 - Algorithmic trading and market analysis.
- Wycoff's generic theme is lacking precision and understanding due to its historical context and limited technological capabilities.
- ICT explains the importance of understanding algorithms in various fields, but struggles to recall specific book titles from his past education.
- ICT explains that he's looking for a low-risk short opportunity in the market, which he calls the "low-risk short" or "Smart Money reversal.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of waiting for the right setup before entering a trade, and he provides a framework for identifying the optimal entry points.
41:26 - Market maker models and their narratives.
- Trader discusses sell-side expansion in market maker model, focusing on liquidity and price movements.
- ICT explains that understanding the market is a gradual process, not something that can be learned in one video or overnight.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of focusing on the narrative and liquidity in the market, rather than just looking at charts for patterns.
- ICT shares their journey of learning to trade, from being a buyer to using trend following with bullish divergence and stochastics.
- ICT encourages listeners to be patient and persistent in their learning, and to not rely solely on others for guidance.
48:08 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- ICT: Liquidity draw below market, consolidation likely in long-term bull market.
- Trader seeks selling opportunities in a specific range, with two potential points for shorting.
- Liquidity may be drawn to a certain area, creating a market maker profile and potential rally.
51:53 - Market analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of using a foundational price action model, as it provides a starting point for understanding price action and carving out setups.
- ICT encourages members to focus on one model and not deviate from it, as it helps build confidence and understanding in the model.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of focusing on one or two markets rather than trying to analyze 30 different markets.
- ICT advises against sharing trading opinions on social media, as it can lead to demoralization and contradictory opinions.
58:15 - Technical analysis and market distribution.
- ICT looks for levels of redistribution in the market, such as accumulation of shorts, to confirm a bearish outlook.
- In a bearish scenario, ICT seeks to take profits in the shaded area, with the potential for further downside.
- ICT analyzes the dollar Swiss chart, identifying equal highs and consolidation patterns.
- Market maker models and sell side liquidity are discussed, with a focus on the weekly chart.
01:04:59 - Dollar index seasonality and potential trading opportunities.
- ICT expects the dollar to be bearish, with the pair dropping down in sympathy with a weaker dollar.
- Analyst expects dollar index to reach equal highs despite potential bounce.
01:08:28 - Trading with institutional flow and identifying potential price levels.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of trading with institutional flow, as it increases the probabilities of success.
- He advises against trading against the grain or against the tide of price movement, as it can lead to limited expectations and lower profits.
- ICT is looking for a rejection block at 9542, based on equal highs and a weekly waterblock.
- The rejection block is a low-hanging fruit target, with potential for a fair value gap.
01:14:01 - Price action and trading opportunities.
- ICT identifies a consolidation pattern in the market, with a high and low range and a rejection block at 9542.
- Price swings are analyzed in close proximity to the consolidation, with distribution and redistribution opportunities identified.
- ICT identifies a range of opportunity for buying and selling based on price action model #7 criteria.
01:19:49 - Technical analysis of a four-hour chart.
- ICT analyzes a 4-hour chart, identifying a bounce price range and potential targets for price movement.
01:22:30 - Price action and liquidity distribution.
- The speaker discusses a liquidity pool below a rally, with a market maker consolidation leading to a distribution sell-off and a potential low resistance liquidity run.
- The speaker highlights the importance of close candles and the balance between buying and selling in the market.
- ICT explains how to identify potential target levels in a trading scenario using a fractal analysis of price action, with a focus on the 9575 low and the potential for a rejection at 9545.
- ICT provides a detailed example of how to calibrate to the 9575 low and identify potential target levels based on the liquidity distribution profile and the fractal analysis.
01:28:09 - Using price models for weekly analysis.
- ICT explains how he uses algorithmic trading to rebalance and engineer price movements in the market.
- Trader explains weekly analysis method for market forecasting
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:12 --> 00:00:20 | ICT: Give us welcome back Price Action Model number seven universal trading model. And this teaching is going to specifically deal with sellside, low |
| 2 | 00:00:20 --> 00:00:34 | resistance liquidity runs and fractals. All right price action model number seven. Again, this is a universal trading so it's applicable to every style of |
| 3 | 00:00:34 --> 00:00:45 | trading. That means position trading, swing trading, short term trading, day trading and scalping. This model again, is focusing on the sell side low |
| 4 | 00:00:45 --> 00:00:57 | resistance liquidity runs utilizing the fractal. And our stage for this model is a liquidity draw. In other words, we're looking for a higher Time Frame level to |
| 5 | 00:00:57 --> 00:01:09 | absorb liquidity, okay, the setup is sellside market maker profile. Now, because we have two market maker profiles have a buy model. And we have a sell model, |
| 6 | 00:01:10 --> 00:01:20 | both have a sell side delivery, Delaware, this portion of the model or profile that goes lower seeking liquidity, that's what we're gonna be focusing on for |
| 7 | 00:01:20 --> 00:01:37 | our setups for this model. And the pattern itself is going to be referring to fair value is a simple go to. Okay, so the sell side expansion on a market maker |
| 8 | 00:01:37 --> 00:01:46 | sell model, when the chart and again, it says any timeframe presents us with a bearish condition for a market, we have to understand when the market is poised |
| 9 | 00:01:46 --> 00:02:00 | to move lower, based on a draw on liquidity that you see here on this crude depiction, the market will seek a level of liquidity. Once it reaches that it |
| 10 | 00:02:00 --> 00:02:10 | will have a tendency to move lower if the higher timeframe indicates that it's feasible in orders if it's likely to occur. This is how we're going to start |
| 11 | 00:02:10 --> 00:02:20 | stocking our setups. Now between the moment and price, when we identify the liquidity the market will seek and the price level of the target liquidity. In |
| 12 | 00:02:20 --> 00:02:30 | other words, after this initial run up, we're expecting the market to go lower. So we need to target a level of liquidity below the market. Once we determine |
| 13 | 00:02:30 --> 00:02:40 | that what that price level is, this is our target liquidity. And between those two price points is our range of opportunity to have equal lows here. So we know |
| 14 | 00:02:40 --> 00:02:54 | there's a sell side liquidity pool resting below that. And that will be our target liquidity. The range of opportunity is shown here. And there is one two |
| 15 | 00:02:55 --> 00:03:08 | areas of key points of liquidity. Because everything is germane with the original buy side of the curve of our market maker sell model here. Initially, |
| 16 | 00:03:08 --> 00:03:20 | we have the run up the retracement back into the original consolidation sources of return back to fair value. We have an expansion move up, trade back down |
| 17 | 00:03:20 --> 00:03:28 | again, we don't look for classic Support Resistance theory here. We're waiting for it to retrace back, once the market gives us another buying opportunity and |
| 18 | 00:03:28 --> 00:03:40 | here it rallies up to an area of higher timeframe liquidity once it reaches this liquidity and we are sensing bearish, if you will, we would expect to see price |
| 19 | 00:03:40 --> 00:03:55 | trade lower once we see the market break down below our highest re accumulation of Long's okay and it's going to be this one here. Go back and watch model |
| 20 | 00:03:55 --> 00:04:06 | number six. And it'll refer to these specific price points. Where we get this low here, we draw that out through the curve which is the midpoint of the |
| 21 | 00:04:06 --> 00:04:15 | overall fractal. draw that out in time market will look to seek to trade back to that level and then there will be a measure of distribution. Okay? In other |
| 22 | 00:04:15 --> 00:04:27 | words, sellside imbalances will start creating the movement lower large ranges down. Many times it doesn't need to go back up to this level here. So for your |
| 23 | 00:04:27 --> 00:04:36 | notes, just know that on a lower timeframes, like for instance, a one hour or a 15 minute timeframe, they don't necessarily have to come back to this one. But |
| 24 | 00:04:36 --> 00:04:47 | if it doesn't, that's fine, because the second opportunity will create a larger, more protracted expansion on the downside. In other words, there's going to be a |
| 25 | 00:04:47 --> 00:04:57 | larger degree of a price swing unfold and just reaching the liquidity here. Okay, and go back and listen to that portion again. Lots of nuggets in that |
| 26 | 00:04:57 --> 00:05:08 | segment of commentary. So Oh, we're looking for opportunities to sell short here and sell short here initially targeting here. Now if we get a run significantly |
| 27 | 00:05:08 --> 00:05:20 | below this low here and runs below the initial point one of reexamination of Long's on a sell model. On this market maker sell profile, if again, the market |
| 28 | 00:05:20 --> 00:05:31 | breaks down rate to this one. Okay, now again, looking at the overall structure, every fractal, every price swing is going to be slightly different. But the |
| 29 | 00:05:31 --> 00:05:41 | general theme and rule of thumb is, the algorithm will seek this price point here. Or if it runs through this one onwards, if you get this price line here |
| 30 | 00:05:41 --> 00:05:52 | all the way down, and it blows right through this one, then once it retraces back up inside of the down close candles in this swing low, okay? Once that |
| 31 | 00:05:52 --> 00:06:05 | occurs, we're going to expect a large dynamic move farther than just this liquidity pool here on cell stops. Okay, so let's move on. Okay, we're looking |
| 32 | 00:06:05 --> 00:06:19 | at a weekly liquidity distribution profile. And this is going to look similar to what we showed in the production model number six. Over here, we have the last |
| 33 | 00:06:19 --> 00:06:31 | if you will, on the RE accumulation of Long's on the sell side. Over here, we match up where the buy side was offered overs, every time we create a bullish |
| 34 | 00:06:31 --> 00:06:41 | scenario, to the left of the curve, that's this vertical line here. With the liquidity distribution profile, what we're doing is what I'm actually trying to |
| 35 | 00:06:41 --> 00:06:55 | communicate to you is the way the algorithm will seek to pair up previous levels of buy side and sell side delivery. Over here, during the buy side of a market |
| 36 | 00:06:55 --> 00:07:09 | maker sell model, once a creates it, Smart Money reversal, and notice I'm teaching the higher level. In other words, in terms of probability, because this |
| 37 | 00:07:09 --> 00:07:16 | level here takes some experience, okay, I don't want you thinking that you're going to be able to nail the high, and then go short here and go short here and |
| 38 | 00:07:16 --> 00:07:18 | then go to the bank, you |
| 39 | 00:07:19 --> 00:07:31 | know, just being all happy with new resistance, if you will, I want you to focus on the opportunities that reside with once the in the second of the by Syberia |
| 40 | 00:07:31 --> 00:07:42 | accumulation on a market maker cell profile. Once that's broken, on the right side of the curve here, what we're going to be doing is we're gonna be looking |
| 41 | 00:07:42 --> 00:07:53 | for the market to create a pairing of orders in from a fair value gap, or where there was old sell stops over here below that swing low, that would have created |
| 42 | 00:07:53 --> 00:08:05 | a new re accumulation in there, those sell stops, they will get ran out there, we want to see that take place once their cell stops are ran out, then returned |
| 43 | 00:08:05 --> 00:08:17 | back up into this level of liquidity in the form of the down close candles. That's where we're looking for to pair orders for going short. Because there's |
| 44 | 00:08:17 --> 00:08:27 | going to be a form of mitigation there. So we're going to knock out the long's that were rallying up here and trying to make profit there so they're stopped |
| 45 | 00:08:27 --> 00:08:36 | out, then the market will return back to fair value, the fair value is going to be determined by the down close candles that make up the swing low to the left |
| 46 | 00:08:36 --> 00:08:46 | of the curve of this overall expected price swing. So in other words, the theory is we're expecting price to go up to eventually go down. So we're watching the |
| 47 | 00:08:46 --> 00:08:56 | price accumulate. And something over here, we may have been able to go long on based on what we learned in price action model number six. But even if we did |
| 48 | 00:08:56 --> 00:09:06 | not this is the importance that I want you to understand. The power in this insight is that you don't have to be a buyer. When the market trades up to this |
| 49 | 00:09:06 --> 00:09:16 | level here, your whole profile and your model may be looking for this structure to the form. And once it breaks down and trades below the second of the RE |
| 50 | 00:09:16 --> 00:09:26 | accumulation of the buy side of the curve on a sell side model. Okay. And obviously, this is going to take you a couple times and listen to the go back |
| 51 | 00:09:26 --> 00:09:36 | and look at price action among a number six and refer to the notes it's been provided the mentorship. If we take out the second level of regulation on the |
| 52 | 00:09:36 --> 00:09:50 | buy side of the curve of a sell model. Once that occurs, we have a high probability to see it seek the first initial regulation of Long's. In other |
| 53 | 00:09:50 --> 00:09:58 | words, it doesn't show it here. But I'm showing it in this form because I want you to know that this from a theory standpoint, this would represent the higher |
| 54 | 00:09:58 --> 00:10:09 | of the two numbers We have a consolidation, it runs up, comes back down, finds the retracing back to the original consolidation, that would be point one of the |
| 55 | 00:10:09 --> 00:10:18 | accumulation of Long's, then it rallies up, then retraces back down. This is the second buying opportunity or regulation of Long's then rallying up to some level |
| 56 | 00:10:18 --> 00:10:31 | of buy side liquidity to offset the losses that you were seeing the accumulated here, they're selling them here. Now, you're not going to know without a great |
| 57 | 00:10:31 --> 00:10:40 | deal of experience, where this is going to be the reversal. And that's why I'm not teaching that because you have to look at things like I'm showing you here. |
| 58 | 00:10:40 --> 00:10:50 | And then over time and experience that will teach you when to anticipate that smartphone reversal. Okay, so there will be times that you can go in and fish |
| 59 | 00:10:50 --> 00:11:01 | drop a small little position in here. If you think that the likelihood of that formation of a intermediate term or long term highs forming, you can put a |
| 60 | 00:11:01 --> 00:11:09 | really small position on there. And it hopefully once it gets down here and creates the scenario that we're outlining here, the higher of the two swing lows |
| 61 | 00:11:10 --> 00:11:18 | prior to the reversal here, when that breaks, that's our market structure break, we're not going to look at this small little short term market structure break |
| 62 | 00:11:18 --> 00:11:28 | that creates the low risk entry. Okay, the low risk entry requires high experience, okay, you need to have a lot of experience to get to that. But |
| 63 | 00:11:28 --> 00:11:38 | again, I'm not trying to hold it back and say, Well, you know, you don't deserve it yet. You do get it by experience, but you get it by experience by doing what |
| 64 | 00:11:38 --> 00:11:45 | I'm showing you here. So we're looking at the higher the to re accumulation. And in some models, there may be actually three accumulations, I mean, one returns |
| 65 | 00:11:45 --> 00:11:55 | back to the consolidation, to re accumulation and never reaches that buyside liquidity pool yet. And then a third one creates that. In that case, again, |
| 66 | 00:11:55 --> 00:12:05 | we're always using the higher between the original consolidation and where we thought that market would reach for liquidity. Whichever the higher of the |
| 67 | 00:12:05 --> 00:12:13 | regulation of lungs is seen, wherever that swing low is, we want to see that be broken. Once the the market seeks to liquidity below that runs the sell sauce |
| 68 | 00:12:13 --> 00:12:22 | below that on the left side of the curve. Once that occurs, and blini. I'll show you examples in price. But nonetheless, once the sell stops are taken, then we |
| 69 | 00:12:22 --> 00:12:29 | wait for fair value to be traded back to in other words, it could run the stops and come back up into the bodies of the down close candles of the swing low |
| 70 | 00:12:29 --> 00:12:42 | that's formed here. Again, on the minus nodes. If the highest regulation of loans on the buy side of the curve of a sell model, lower its prices keep |
| 71 | 00:12:42 --> 00:12:51 | accumulating sideways, it moves higher trades up and then goes down. What we're looking for is that breaking market structure of the highest of your |
| 72 | 00:12:51 --> 00:13:03 | accumulation of Long's prior to a point of liquidity being taken out above an old high or some measure of a premium array. And again, go back and look at the |
| 73 | 00:13:03 --> 00:13:18 | market maker models and overlap with that content from month number five, where we talk about the PD array matrix. So we have that that model of breaking market |
| 74 | 00:13:18 --> 00:13:28 | structure relative to a specific price point, it's not just well, it's going to be a break in market structure. If it takes this low down, or takes this high |
| 75 | 00:13:28 --> 00:13:40 | down. Now, there's very specific structures being shown here. And that's what this liquidity distribution profile provides you. This slide is something that |
| 76 | 00:13:40 --> 00:13:53 | will not be shown by anyone else. Okay, the content that's being shown to you here is unique to me, because of the institutional delivery of liquidity, that |
| 77 | 00:13:53 --> 00:14:03 | aspect of retail learning and trading is void. It doesn't exist. Okay. So when we have folks that are suggesting that they have a order flow background or |
| 78 | 00:14:03 --> 00:14:13 | something to that effect, where even supply and demand, this is the missing link, they don't have this, okay, so when we have an understanding of liquidity |
| 79 | 00:14:13 --> 00:14:22 | distribution, once we have that element in our trading, we don't need charts. We don't need candlesticks, we don't need any of that we just need to have an old |
| 80 | 00:14:22 --> 00:14:36 | reference point in terms of price. So traders that use this information off floor in other words, if they were a floor trader before, they would use the |
| 81 | 00:14:36 --> 00:14:49 | excitement and fever of buying and selling around specific level and they would get a feel for where the order book would be as a whole by watching the activity |
| 82 | 00:14:49 --> 00:14:59 | in the pits. Now when they left the pits when everything went to electronic trading. There was this major adjustment and a lot of them never really could |
| 83 | 00:14:59 --> 00:15:10 | get it They couldn't, they couldn't adjust for it. I learned tape reading while I was a commodity trader, and I would just watch CNBC. And back then it was FM. |
| 84 | 00:15:10 --> 00:15:11 | And it was |
| 85 | 00:15:12 --> 00:15:22 | just the same type of event where you would watch a ticker tape. And you would just see this scrolling, every 10 minutes in the futures market would update. |
| 86 | 00:15:22 --> 00:15:33 | And it would tell you where the price is. Now, it doesn't give you the high new low, but I would study that literally, during the New York session for the s&p |
| 87 | 00:15:33 --> 00:15:41 | in the bond market. And I would try to get a read on what he was doing by making a notation. I'm not saying that you should be doing this, I'm just giving you |
| 88 | 00:15:41 --> 00:15:51 | the the evolution, if you will, of how I internalized how price has been delivered, because I've always felt that it was to some degree controlled or |
| 89 | 00:15:51 --> 00:16:00 | manipulated, but I never understood how it could be because we're always told them books, the markets too big to be manipulated. And that's not entirely true. |
| 90 | 00:16:00 --> 00:16:12 | So once we have this liquidity distribution model understood, we know specifically the protocol for one has a market structure break. Okay, there's so |
| 91 | 00:16:12 --> 00:16:25 | many people that have their charts, lipstick, and all marked up, like I teach in my free tutorials. And they'll have the germ, the jargon and terminology on |
| 92 | 00:16:25 --> 00:16:33 | their either commentary, or if they're tweeting something, or if they're in the YouTube making videos. And they'll say, here's a market structure break. And if |
| 93 | 00:16:33 --> 00:16:43 | it doesn't fit this criteria, then it's not a break in market structure. Okay? It's not it's not there. So there's going to be times when we have a market |
| 94 | 00:16:43 --> 00:16:51 | maker cell profile. Okay. And just so you know, I'm getting getting a vibe, right? Now someone's listening. And they're thinking, okay, when you say market |
| 95 | 00:16:51 --> 00:17:04 | maker, sell model or sell profile? What does that mean? How do I know that all you're looking for is a bounce in existing bearish market, that means you're |
| 96 | 00:17:04 --> 00:17:10 | bouncing over here off of something, and you don't have to know when it was going to bounce. In other words, I'm not suggesting that I know, it's going to |
| 97 | 00:17:10 --> 00:17:20 | create an accumulation here and go up Retrade back to the accumulation and find support via there, go higher and create one or two more successive buying |
| 98 | 00:17:20 --> 00:17:30 | opportunities to create this turning point, I may not see this opportunity until the highest of the rate accumulation alongside it's been broken, then it might |
| 99 | 00:17:30 --> 00:17:38 | jump off the chart at me, okay, it because it may be a pair, it may be a stock, it may be an indicee It may be something that someone asked me in an email or |
| 100 | 00:17:38 --> 00:17:48 | send a tweet about and immediately my mind goes into contrarian mode. And I break it down like this. So I'm looking for the distribution profile. From a |
| 101 | 00:17:48 --> 00:18:01 | liquidity standpoint, where is the orders? And why is the narrative, more likely to fail them. And I'm going to capitalize on that emotion trading. So when we |
| 102 | 00:18:01 --> 00:18:11 | see things like on, like baby pips, or Forex factory or something to that effect, where we have these very highly opinionated folks, and they want to |
| 103 | 00:18:11 --> 00:18:20 | share their charts, and they show their annotations on the chart, I love that. I love it, simply because it gives me a greater read on retail. And if we combine |
| 104 | 00:18:20 --> 00:18:30 | what I'm what I'm showing you here and teaching by the liquidity distribution profile, once we know this, and we study the market, from that perspective, it's |
| 105 | 00:18:30 --> 00:18:39 | a game changer is nothing that you know, there's nothing else to be worrying about. We just wait. So it removes all the ambiguity about what supply and which |
| 106 | 00:18:39 --> 00:18:50 | demand zone. Okay? It removes all the ambiguity of what resistance and support line you should have. Because these things don't exist, there is a specific |
| 107 | 00:18:50 --> 00:18:59 | price point. Okay, specific price point. And we did this with the institutional pricing model that was taught in the mentorship. And quite honestly, I don't |
| 108 | 00:18:59 --> 00:19:09 | recall what month it is in. But am I asking you why the tweak that either because all it's going to do is is ask or forced traders that are in mentorship |
| 109 | 00:19:09 --> 00:19:18 | to ask questions. This is all charter member level. So this skip it that way. But the liquidity distribution profile that's shown here, it looks just like a |
| 110 | 00:19:18 --> 00:19:30 | simple little, you know, the depiction of a graph or chart, okay, or a drawing, if you will. And this is how I internalize that this is the bridge of when I |
| 111 | 00:19:30 --> 00:19:38 | looked at Wycoff. Okay, why cough I get accused of all your teaching my cough. Let me tell you something, why cough never got this close. When you look at |
| 112 | 00:19:38 --> 00:19:48 | Wycoff there, you know, he talks about the markup and the markdown phase okay and cycle. That's great. And initially when I first looked at it, it looked like |
| 113 | 00:19:48 --> 00:19:54 | nonsense and it didn't make any sense to me. Why? Because it didn't have chart patterns. It didn't have a candlestick chart over top. We didn't have open high |
| 114 | 00:19:54 --> 00:20:01 | low close bar on it. It didn't have moving averages on it didn't have any indicators on it just talked about The market going up and then Mark going down. |
| 115 | 00:20:01 --> 00:20:10 | And to me, it sounds like Well, obviously, it's hindsight. I mean, anybody can talk about it like that, and which is what everyone else thinks they see when |
| 116 | 00:20:10 --> 00:20:19 | they start looking at my content, even folks that go through the free tutorials, okay, in some of you that went through the initial few months, it felt like, |
| 117 | 00:20:19 --> 00:20:27 | well, this is this regurgitated Wycoff stuff, and it's not. And that's why I encourage everyone to go through study it, you know, I studied it at great |
| 118 | 00:20:27 --> 00:20:41 | lengths and depths. And while I already understood some measure of it, because of experience, I quickly built upon the basic premise, because it helped me |
| 119 | 00:20:41 --> 00:20:52 | formulate a model for Okay, when, when the market is bullish short term, but intermediate term, it's bearish. That's what this liquidity distribution profile |
| 120 | 00:20:52 --> 00:21:05 | is showing. Okay, because the markets here, and I anticipate it going lower, but first, it may rally. Okay, so if we have that condition, this is how we use it. |
| 121 | 00:21:05 --> 00:21:08 | So maybe we we've been in a |
| 122 | 00:21:10 --> 00:21:22 | long term or any term bear market for a particular market or pair. And we hit some level, that is questionable, it creates a likelihood of a bounce. Okay, |
| 123 | 00:21:22 --> 00:21:34 | great. If it's going to bounce, we do our pdra matrix, see where the premium and discount levels are and where the equilibrium is. And we find some measure of |
| 124 | 00:21:34 --> 00:21:43 | premium in here. Now, once we have a level of premium, nor it's how high it can go, then we start specifically breaking down the PDE arrays from a premium |
| 125 | 00:21:43 --> 00:21:54 | standpoint. And then we map those out for buy side liquidity. In other words, something above current price over here, okay, prior to the expected run up to |
| 126 | 00:21:54 --> 00:22:04 | create a selling opportunity. Remember, this model is universal. So it's going to take you several times to watch this and model six as well. And you probably |
| 127 | 00:22:04 --> 00:22:15 | will find it more beneficial next year. Okay. And the reason why I'm saying that is, you'll see more things having learned that from a theory and conceptual |
| 128 | 00:22:15 --> 00:22:26 | standpoint, and you'll see it applied, like I'm going to show you with the dollar Swiss, okay, so everything that's been shown here is very, very deep, but |
| 129 | 00:22:26 --> 00:22:39 | it's dry, it's very, very dry content. But you will understand the market from a greater depth and appreciation for the way liquidity is delivered, neutralized |
| 130 | 00:22:39 --> 00:22:50 | and or engineered. When you understand this whole premise here. This is one, there's about five or six more things that I won't talk about not even until we |
| 131 | 00:22:50 --> 00:23:01 | finally get to 2020. But this is one specific thing, once you understand this, it unlocks when is the market really showing a market structure break? And when |
| 132 | 00:23:01 --> 00:23:12 | is it just running stops? You have to know what this is showing you. Okay, from the narrative side knows what is price? Don't Why is price dealing with its it |
| 133 | 00:23:12 --> 00:23:21 | don't? Okay, if once you have that, it removes the whole confusion. And it's just simply a matter of waiting. And that's what you're looking for in your |
| 134 | 00:23:21 --> 00:23:30 | trading. You want to know. Okay, I'm not going to do anything right now, because there's nothing to do. But how long should I wait? And when do I know the wait |
| 135 | 00:23:30 --> 00:23:40 | is over in the neck and capitalize on the current condition? That's what this liquidity distribution profile does. It provides a framework where I don't need |
| 136 | 00:23:40 --> 00:23:53 | a chart. I don't trade charts. I trade distribution of liquidity. Because the bank is the storefront they're the storehouse if you will they provide the |
| 137 | 00:23:53 --> 00:24:06 | currency or they provide the asset they they are the underwriter for stocks, they are the provider of the liquidity. So I just completely skipped over the |
| 138 | 00:24:06 --> 00:24:15 | whole, what's the chart telling me? Where's the trend lines? And what's the indicators telling me to what is likely going on behind the scenes because if I |
| 139 | 00:24:15 --> 00:24:28 | can determine the narrative behind price, the behaviors are going to be pretty generic going forward. And I know with a great deal of certainty, not a complete |
| 140 | 00:24:28 --> 00:24:40 | understanding and perfection, but I have a great deal of certainty that I know the probable behavior going forward in that market. Now, if I cannot get a read |
| 141 | 00:24:40 --> 00:24:52 | on price with this element, this is the first of a few things that I do. But if I can't see it from from this perspective or outlining model that would give me |
| 142 | 00:24:52 --> 00:25:00 | the framework, if you will, of what price should be doing relative to this. Then I don't touch the market or I sit on my hand to say, Okay, I'm we're just |
| 143 | 00:25:00 --> 00:25:10 | waiting for more insights. So underlying that, okay, this is the video that you want to come back to next year you want because there's a lot of things that |
| 144 | 00:25:10 --> 00:25:20 | will click into place, once you watch this video a couple times, and every two weeks, come back to this one. And then we'll see more price data, we'll see more |
| 145 | 00:25:20 --> 00:25:29 | examples of what I've shown and then also go back and watch in December, we're not going to go in a whole lot, and half of January, go back and watch the |
| 146 | 00:25:29 --> 00:25:38 | previous weekly videos where I'm talking about, again, I'm looking for specific things, or I don't have an idea right now what's going on, and then compare that |
| 147 | 00:25:38 --> 00:25:48 | with what I'm showing you here. And it'll make perfect sense. You'll know what I didn't talk about, then. Because it wasn't for you to learn, then now you have |
| 148 | 00:25:48 --> 00:25:59 | it. So we have our liquidity distribution profile. This is what we do in terms of viewing price action. It's not the open high, low and close. That's a tool |
| 149 | 00:25:59 --> 00:26:13 | that we use to work within this narrative. But we have to watch the highest of the last regulation alongs once the liquidity has been taken here, or was it |
| 150 | 00:26:13 --> 00:26:25 | men, for instance, this is a weekly chart perspective, the market, maybe you're rallying off of a some bullish order block in here. And we, we expect it to |
| 151 | 00:26:25 --> 00:26:36 | bounce, but we don't really expect the downtrend to end. But we run up above a short term high to run the bus stops. Okay, well, once those are absorbed. The |
| 152 | 00:26:36 --> 00:26:46 | question is, is how do I know if it's going to continue going on? Or if it's going to break down? And then if that breakdown, is a market structure shift? Or |
| 153 | 00:26:46 --> 00:26:56 | is it just a run on the sell stops over here? Think about what I just told you. The higher timeframe narrative is what we're looking for, because the |
| 154 | 00:26:56 --> 00:27:06 | institutional order flow on that level is more apt to continue versus something we would see for instance, on a five or 15 or even 60 minute basis, because |
| 155 | 00:27:06 --> 00:27:17 | those trends or those price runs that we see on those lower timeframes are very sporadic and very short term in nature. So the large funds are not out there |
| 156 | 00:27:17 --> 00:27:28 | trying to do you know $50 million on a transaction that is going to pan out over a 15 minute chart that would take up a couple hours a day, that's not their |
| 157 | 00:27:28 --> 00:27:42 | model, you can only move so many millions of dollars, okay inside of a short fluctuation in price. So their expectation on price is from a higher timeframe |
| 158 | 00:27:42 --> 00:27:51 | macro standpoint, monthly, weekly, daily. And they don't really look at anything less than a daily because everything is framed from that daily chart up. And |
| 159 | 00:27:51 --> 00:28:01 | that's why like CRT reflects all those price behaviors, and they align. And that's why we spend so much time on the daily chart because without this |
| 160 | 00:28:01 --> 00:28:12 | narrative, you're not going to be consistent and you're not going to find longevity. So once we have this understood, go back and watch the video again. |
| 161 | 00:28:12 --> 00:28:20 | And there's a couple points I've given you in this video to frame out a lot of reoccurring questions that come up in the forum, reoccurring questions that come |
| 162 | 00:28:20 --> 00:28:30 | to me by email, and or things that I see when people think they understand, they're still making that same mistake of not knowing what really makes a market |
| 163 | 00:28:30 --> 00:28:44 | structure break, or a shift in market structure, if you will. So moving on, we have the daily chart. Also, once we see our weekly chart, we're anticipating the |
| 164 | 00:28:44 --> 00:28:53 | same thing to form on a daily chart, but the only thing is, is now our range of opportunity shifts from the daily |
| 165 | 00:28:54 --> 00:29:04 | to a four hour and 60 minute timeframe. And we'll be breaking the market down more or less like a top down approach. But what we're doing is refining the |
| 166 | 00:29:04 --> 00:29:13 | fractal. And I'll show you what that is and what it means when we go into the dollar, Swiss chard and examples towards the end of the video. But here, we're |
| 167 | 00:29:13 --> 00:29:25 | focusing on from a daily perspective, we're expecting this run up to find some distribution and selling okay, and that we're expecting the large fund |
| 168 | 00:29:25 --> 00:29:37 | institutional order flow to shift in here and start going lower, when that highest of the long or the highest of the RE accumulation of longs for that with |
| 169 | 00:29:37 --> 00:29:48 | a re accumulation over here, whichever the highest one is swing low to the left of the curve once that's broken, but we have to see the liquidity run first once |
| 170 | 00:29:48 --> 00:29:58 | it's taken. There's no more real storyline if you will to go higher. So once we see that on a weekly chart on a daily we're expecting that same thing to occur |
| 171 | 00:29:58 --> 00:30:05 | but we're now we're refining In that fractal, and we're saying Okay, over here, we're going to look at a four hour or a 60 minute timeframe. And we're going to |
| 172 | 00:30:05 --> 00:30:17 | break that down into really tight precision. So we will expect, again, the cell starts to be ran over here on the left side of the curve, and then it returns |
| 173 | 00:30:17 --> 00:30:26 | back to fair value. Fair value is going to be the down close candles, or down close candle on the four hour or 60 minute timeframe. Once it trades into that |
| 174 | 00:30:26 --> 00:30:36 | candle, we will be looking for sell signals. Okay, so let's go short. Now from a daily standpoint, this wouldn't be in the form of, we expect the price to run |
| 175 | 00:30:36 --> 00:30:50 | down below below, one for our 60 minute basis. And then we have our power three, we can now incorporate day trading and short term trading using the scalping and |
| 176 | 00:30:50 --> 00:30:59 | day trading concepts you learned in mentorship. So what does that mean? Say it's occurs, we run down below the sell stops over here on say, a Thursday or Friday, |
| 177 | 00:30:59 --> 00:31:08 | we wait the weekend, we don't care what something's doing. And then on Monday, if we rally back up into the bodies of the down closed candle or candles over |
| 178 | 00:31:08 --> 00:31:20 | here, which is the highest of the RE accumulation of Long's before the buy side liquidity has run out. In other words, to make it in layman's terms, if we think |
| 179 | 00:31:20 --> 00:31:29 | that there is a level of bias on liquidity, it's going to be a drop in liquidity. When price gets that price point, once it's done that it's over, |
| 180 | 00:31:29 --> 00:31:37 | we're going to wait for evidences that the markets want to go lower. What is that, that break below the highest of the regulation alongs that occurred prior |
| 181 | 00:31:37 --> 00:31:50 | to that higher timeframe premium or rate that we were aiming for, to be ran out, or the simplest of terms a resistance price point. Okay, now some some level of |
| 182 | 00:31:50 --> 00:31:57 | resistance, now retail isn't going to see it that way. Because they're going to be looking for some old low or an old high where it's going to stop dead in its |
| 183 | 00:31:57 --> 00:32:04 | tracks to turn around, we've learned that that's not always the case, you have external range liquidity and internal range liquidity. So this whole return back |
| 184 | 00:32:04 --> 00:32:15 | up here could be a return to a weekly bearish waterblock. Or it could be trading up until weekly fair value gap or closer liquidity void. Whatever the pdra |
| 185 | 00:32:15 --> 00:32:26 | matrix is allowing you to identify during and prior to this whole run up, that's what you use, everything is going to be slightly different. Remember, there is |
| 186 | 00:32:26 --> 00:32:37 | there may not be a fair value gap, there may not be a liquidity void, but there will be a bearish order block. And if there was already a stop, run to the left |
| 187 | 00:32:37 --> 00:32:47 | over here somewhere, if it comes back up to the bearish order block, we know that that's more likely to hold versus running a new higher high for higher |
| 188 | 00:32:47 --> 00:32:55 | level by stops. Okay, so just go back and look at more month number five content, it'll help you kind of like dovetail with what what I'm teaching you |
| 189 | 00:32:55 --> 00:33:06 | here. So once that highest level of regulation along is on the left side of the curve is taken out, we do have a qualified shift in market structure. Again, if |
| 190 | 00:33:06 --> 00:33:14 | it trades all the way down to the second one, okay, of the two, that would be over here, where the first regulation of loans prior to the run up to the smarmy |
| 191 | 00:33:14 --> 00:33:24 | reversal, then we know that there's going to be a larger degree of distribution, there'll be a larger magnet on liquidity. That would take price just not below |
| 192 | 00:33:24 --> 00:33:29 | here, but a longer term pricing, okay. And the reason why that occurs, this is the theory behind it. |
| 193 | 00:33:30 --> 00:33:40 | If we go below the first of the regulation alongs here, and it keeps on going. That's not just a simple rule on sell stops, that's a heavy measure |
| 194 | 00:33:40 --> 00:33:49 | distribution. And say we go down below the first re accumulation of Long's over here and I was looking like a sideways it breaks out of consolidation comes back |
| 195 | 00:33:49 --> 00:33:57 | down. There's your read regulation of Long's which is not shown on the chart here. Because I want you don't learn the highest of whatever swing lows that |
| 196 | 00:33:57 --> 00:34:05 | form here, you want to go to the highest one, once that's broken on the right side of the curve, once that's occurring over here, then you're anticipating |
| 197 | 00:34:05 --> 00:34:15 | these events, okay, so you're looking for the sell, stop run, then return fair value. Once that occurs, then you're looking forward to sell off again. And it |
| 198 | 00:34:15 --> 00:34:26 | creates an opportunity that if we get this scenario and you miss this one, find a next buy side over here. In other words where the swing low is prior to a run |
| 199 | 00:34:26 --> 00:34:36 | up. It's going to match over here. That's what's missing from Wycoff. Okay, Wycoff very generic theme. Okay, and everyone talks about the same way. But you |
| 200 | 00:34:36 --> 00:34:48 | never see anyone using Wycoff with this level of precision and understanding. Because Wycoff doesn't know things from an algorithm standpoint, it was too far |
| 201 | 00:34:48 --> 00:34:55 | back in history. Because of my computer science and information systems training. When I was learning to be a computer computer programmer and be a |
| 202 | 00:34:55 --> 00:35:05 | systems analyst. That's that never happened because I never found a job using it. that whole experience. And I thank God for putting me in that direction, |
| 203 | 00:35:05 --> 00:35:16 | because even though it didn't pan out that way, it gave me a great deal of insights about how things work. from a technological standpoint, notice, we |
| 204 | 00:35:16 --> 00:35:25 | create these things like in Lotus 123, if you guys know what that is, like, it's old spreadsheet program, kind of like Excel, we, we create these things called |
| 205 | 00:35:25 --> 00:35:34 | macros. And they're like little short little programs, you do this, do that do this, if it does this, you do that, okay. And I thought long and hard about if |
| 206 | 00:35:34 --> 00:35:44 | the markets were going to be controlled, they would have to have some kind of logic behind it. And then everything had to be there, you Everything had to be |
| 207 | 00:35:45 --> 00:35:55 | as it needs to be for it to run efficiently and work correctly, syntax has to be correct. There has to be opportunity or data to pull from, okay. And that's why |
| 208 | 00:35:55 --> 00:36:05 | we have the PDE arrays, because we come back to those same price points, just like the algorithm will. Okay, so it takes me a great deal of time and effort to |
| 209 | 00:36:05 --> 00:36:14 | take folks that have never learned computer programming or thought of things like an algorithmic perspective, it takes a lot more time for folks that have |
| 210 | 00:36:14 --> 00:36:24 | never been exposed to it, to learn this, folks that are highly technical, can readily assimilate to what I'm showing in teaching, because they've already been |
| 211 | 00:36:24 --> 00:36:34 | exposed to that from higher level maths and or some measure of computer programming. Now today, in high schools, they offer computer programming. And I |
| 212 | 00:36:34 --> 00:36:47 | think it's a wonderful procedure to force if you will want to students because it gives them a framework to look at how everything is algorithmic now, from |
| 213 | 00:36:47 --> 00:36:59 | advertising to, you know, efficient staffing of companies, you know that everything is algorithmic. And if you don't understand that, there are many |
| 214 | 00:36:59 --> 00:37:08 | books out there that talk about algorithms and things. And some of them will probably be boring for you, others will probably be more insightful and user |
| 215 | 00:37:08 --> 00:37:19 | friendly. But I don't have any of them in my library, but I did read them in my schooling. And for the life of me, I can't remember any title. So I already knew |
| 216 | 00:37:19 --> 00:37:31 | I'd open a Pandora's box. Okay, what are those books ICT, I just don't know, I guess it's been such a long time since 20. septum 2829 years ago, is back in |
| 217 | 00:37:31 --> 00:37:40 | school before I even consider being a trader. So just know that these levels of understanding are going to take a little bit more work, and a lot more to chew |
| 218 | 00:37:40 --> 00:37:50 | on. But trust me, I didn't learn it the first time I was exposed to it. And the first time I made notations in my journals, it didn't click after a one time |
| 219 | 00:37:50 --> 00:37:59 | experience. So just watching this video and models, number six, isn't going to click for you. So if you're feeling like you're still, like, I can talk about |
| 220 | 00:37:59 --> 00:38:05 | it, and you understand what I'm saying. That's good. That's all you're supposed to know right now. Okay, that's all you're supposed to know. Because when we go |
| 221 | 00:38:05 --> 00:38:15 | to our dollar, Swiss chard, and you start seeing a little bit more of it, it'll start becoming more obtainable and reachable. And over time, looking at previous |
| 222 | 00:38:15 --> 00:38:27 | examples of where I say, I'm waiting for more information, this is what I'm waiting for. Okay? All right. So in this shaded area over here, a range of |
| 223 | 00:38:27 --> 00:38:39 | opportunity is from point one, to point two. But if point one becomes, in essence, really point two because it just completely blows through. The first |
| 224 | 00:38:39 --> 00:38:50 | thing goes below the second of the recalculation of logs over here on the left side of the curve. If that occurs, we have the likelihood of return back to fair |
| 225 | 00:38:50 --> 00:39:02 | value or optimal trade entry. And it's going to occur on a four hour or 60 minute chart, relative to a daily price swing. So this whole price swing here is |
| 226 | 00:39:03 --> 00:39:15 | to be viewed and understood, conceptually on a daily chart, but we refine that daily chart to these points of liquidity. Okay, so we have the liquidity |
| 227 | 00:39:15 --> 00:39:24 | distribution profile understood that inside this daily price swing, we know specifically what we're waiting for. And what we're looking for. That is the |
| 228 | 00:39:24 --> 00:39:34 | highest of the RE accumulation, because if that breaks down, after we've had a round box of liquidity, that's all that's going to be necessary. Because then if |
| 229 | 00:39:34 --> 00:39:45 | we see a distribution cycle unfold from point one, and we trade down to where point two would be, we have no real reason to force we have to get in here or |
| 230 | 00:39:45 --> 00:39:54 | back here. Okay, a lot of folks see that I share trades, I share analysis. And I say okay, well you know, we're probably gonna go up here and reverse. They |
| 231 | 00:39:54 --> 00:40:04 | assume I'm always selling the tops. I'm always buying the bottoms. I'm not because I'm doing so many He thinks especially nowadays, I don't know, you know, |
| 232 | 00:40:04 --> 00:40:11 | if I'm going to be in front of charts at the time, because I'm so inundated with correspondence and people coming in to mentorship, you know, and folks that are |
| 233 | 00:40:11 --> 00:40:21 | just basically asking questions like, hey, looking, I can't get my account open up. All that takes time, we have 1000s of people that we have to manage. So it |
| 234 | 00:40:21 --> 00:40:28 | takes a lot out of me. So I just basically keep myself focused on the low hanging fruit, and everyone else in the mentorship interested in new people came |
| 235 | 00:40:28 --> 00:40:40 | in, they're like, this is unbelievable, but it's just basically teaching from practical application, what I'm showing you here, over time, the graduated |
| 236 | 00:40:40 --> 00:40:50 | experience will provide you the context, it gives you this turning point here, where you can be a bar down here, regular here, regular here in heavy |
| 237 | 00:40:50 --> 00:41:03 | distribution, and then wait for the low resist low resistance liquidity run occurs at Smart Money reversal, or the low risk short. Once that occurs, you you |
| 238 | 00:41:03 --> 00:41:11 | can't get any higher than that with my learning, because that's it. I mean, I'm not saying that there isn't me a future lesson to get to that. But we have to |
| 239 | 00:41:11 --> 00:41:21 | get into 2020. Before that's even scratched on the surface. But this here is the framework that you're looking for, for waiting for more insights. And, or if you |
| 240 | 00:41:21 --> 00:41:29 | hear me saying I'm waiting for I'm sitting on my hands, this is exactly what I'm waiting for. Okay, and now you know, the storyline behind it. And again, this is |
| 241 | 00:41:29 --> 00:41:41 | just one more level. But we go far that way, way farther than this, because we'll have aspects of time, and much more precision in terms of what the market |
| 242 | 00:41:41 --> 00:41:49 | will do on a day by day basis, and a weekly basis. Okay, so there's a lot more refinement that we got, in terms of lessons ahead. And then again, we won't even |
| 243 | 00:41:49 --> 00:42:01 | get into those until like 2020. Alright, so moving on over. So we have sellside expansion on a market maker by model. So when the market is trading, in |
| 244 | 00:42:01 --> 00:42:10 | consolidation, we expect it to trade down find some measure of sell side liquidity, and we're just going to reach for the market liquidity below and a |
| 245 | 00:42:10 --> 00:42:20 | low it may trade back down to an old high, or it may trade down into a fair value gap or trade to a bullish order block. Right here is our drawing liquidity |
| 246 | 00:42:20 --> 00:42:33 | in the framework of this model. But we're inside this fractal. And our specific model number seven is only focusing on traders that can see just the sell side, |
| 247 | 00:42:34 --> 00:42:41 | because I didn't understand short selling, when I first started trading, I understood being a buyer, because obviously if you buy something cheap and you |
| 248 | 00:42:41 --> 00:42:47 | sell it for more money later on, you get a difference in price. And that's great. And I didn't understand short selling because how can you sell something |
| 249 | 00:42:47 --> 00:42:52 | you don't own and buy something back and you made a difference in price. So |
| 250 | 00:42:54 --> 00:43:03 | just like that are similar to that some of you may not see when to be a good buyer. Okay, or when there's buying opportunities, but you can see when there's |
| 251 | 00:43:03 --> 00:43:10 | short selling, that's a normal occurrence. And vice versa. Maybe you can't see what's been shown here model number seven, but you can see clearly what's been |
| 252 | 00:43:10 --> 00:43:21 | shown in price action model number six, all of you are going to have a unique perspective on price. And it's going to be internalized differently. I did not |
| 253 | 00:43:21 --> 00:43:28 | come to this conclusion and understanding all one wave, okay, didn't come to me and and I was like I woke up and then boom, new God laid all this on me. And one |
| 254 | 00:43:28 --> 00:43:41 | day, we're talking about, well, I'm 26 years now. So it was a gradual understanding. So give yourself the flexibility and permission to learn this, |
| 255 | 00:43:41 --> 00:43:49 | you're not going to get it in one video, watch. Okay, you're not it's not going to happen like that. So people that come in here and get to charter member, and |
| 256 | 00:43:49 --> 00:43:59 | they're watching this, and you're just like you're watching now, first class charter member. You you're looking at this thinking, Okay, this is a lot of dri |
| 257 | 00:43:59 --> 00:44:08 | theory, but this is the thing that you're looking for, but you don't know, because you're looking for something to occur in a chart. And it's not in the |
| 258 | 00:44:08 --> 00:44:20 | chart. It's the narrative. What makes the narrative from an institutional standpoint, why should we look, why should we be focusing on the liquidity that |
| 259 | 00:44:20 --> 00:44:31 | I talk about in our weekly analysis? Why? Why should we focus there, and that's what these profiles focus on. The market maker by model and the market maker |
| 260 | 00:44:31 --> 00:44:40 | sell model are just simple, generic templates in in the hands of a neophyte. It just looks like Wycoff. And the reason why it looks like Wycoff is because |
| 261 | 00:44:40 --> 00:44:51 | that's the way price swings occur. They start from a low point A rallies up to a high and then sells off either fails to go to do initial low, or it blows |
| 262 | 00:44:51 --> 00:45:01 | through it, and then starts to go higher after a stop run, or it continues to go even much lower, but you can continuation those narratives We are going to be |
| 263 | 00:45:01 --> 00:45:12 | determined from large sample sizes over the years of trading. So it's important to just pick one of these, out of the 12 price action models we're providing |
| 264 | 00:45:12 --> 00:45:22 | you, it's not essential that you learn all of them, because you're not going to do very well trying to apply everything. But each time we talk about a new one, |
| 265 | 00:45:22 --> 00:45:32 | especially six and seven, it's going to provide you more understanding about the market as a whole, and then you will eventually gravitate to one. And that will |
| 266 | 00:45:32 --> 00:45:44 | be your foundation, just like, wow, I had one specific model, which was being a buyer. And I'm gonna see a take to trend following with a bullish divergence and |
| 267 | 00:45:44 --> 00:45:54 | stochastics. And that was my model. And over time, I gradually moved into not needing a type two, I didn't need a type one divergence, I didn't need a |
| 268 | 00:45:54 --> 00:46:04 | stochastic, I could see price wanting to go higher. And I knew exactly where I wanted to be a buyer. Now, again, that didn't manifest initially, after I |
| 269 | 00:46:04 --> 00:46:14 | watched a couple of things, you know, that I seen in my own study, if this was something that's going to happen really quick for you, I will tell you, if it |
| 270 | 00:46:14 --> 00:46:23 | didn't happen for you, by this time, you there's something wrong, I'm telling you to relax and allow this, this is all part of the process. And that's why |
| 271 | 00:46:23 --> 00:46:34 | most people cannot do this, because it requires a great deal of learning, experiencing, and seeing it not work a lot learning from that. And a few times |
| 272 | 00:46:34 --> 00:46:44 | that it does work, it feels good, but weren't focused on when it doesn't work, because we're it doesn't work. That's where our light bulb moment comes in. And |
| 273 | 00:46:44 --> 00:46:52 | that's how I got to this information. So spending a lot of time in charts, trying to figure out what the narrative was behind it. And then only after it |
| 274 | 00:46:52 --> 00:46:59 | occurred, then I could see oh, yeah, that's what was going on. See, nobody cares about that, you know, as you're learning and you as your trader, no one. And |
| 275 | 00:46:59 --> 00:47:09 | that's why most people don't want to be in the mentorship, because they don't care about all these things. They just want to show me a chart, tell me when to |
| 276 | 00:47:09 --> 00:47:18 | buy and sell. And that's all I need. And it's not what they need, you're gonna lose your money. So the folks that are hearing my voice right now, in 2018, |
| 277 | 00:47:18 --> 00:47:26 | you're a charter member. And you've already tried probably trading with lie funds. And I told you not to do that we first joined. And you thought you |
| 278 | 00:47:26 --> 00:47:32 | figured it out, because you watch a new video or something new came up, or a new concept or a tweak on something you thought you understood from a tweak a free |
| 279 | 00:47:32 --> 00:47:43 | tutorial, and you now have experience more pain. So I tried to spare you that. So that way you wouldn't feel toxic and had these poor thinking, while still |
| 280 | 00:47:43 --> 00:47:55 | learning, you're in the mentorship still, until you know for certain what your model is. And you've done six months of consistent positive response to using |
| 281 | 00:47:55 --> 00:48:05 | that model on paper, then six months in a demo, that means you're a year out, even if you finished the fourth year, the first core content, who cares, you |
| 282 | 00:48:05 --> 00:48:15 | know, you guys are in a hurry to get money. And it doesn't work like that. But if you are in a hurry to be patient, that's going to serve you better. So we |
| 283 | 00:48:15 --> 00:48:24 | have a liquidity draw below the marketplace. And we expect it to reach down to this level here. Now, we don't know if it's going to bounce here and create |
| 284 | 00:48:24 --> 00:48:33 | this. But the likelihood is that we have a consolidation here, we are in a long term bullish or intermediate term bull market. And we've kind of like petered |
| 285 | 00:48:33 --> 00:48:41 | out a little bit. And we've shown signs that we're wanting to go lower will how far it's gonna go, we look at a discount array using the PD array matrix, this |
| 286 | 00:48:41 --> 00:48:50 | may be a bullish order block, that may be a fair value gap, it may be an old high it trades back down to or it may be just below an old low that's not being |
| 287 | 00:48:50 --> 00:48:58 | shown in this diagram that may be a run on sell stops, whatever those things are, because every chart is going to be different relative to the opportunities |
| 288 | 00:48:58 --> 00:49:07 | that's being made available at the time when you're looking at it. Because there's so many possible scenarios, I have templates to give you a rough idea on |
| 289 | 00:49:07 --> 00:49:16 | how to engage them, but you're still going to be limited to what do you see in your chart right now? That's why I do these examples on Twitter. What do you |
| 290 | 00:49:16 --> 00:49:28 | see? WD why is that they are to train your reticular activating system and you want you see in price action over a long period of time, a sample size in |
| 291 | 00:49:28 --> 00:49:39 | engaging in, you will learn but you can't take 26 years, import into a couple of videos or even 500 videos and expect to just watch it one time and then your ICT |
| 292 | 00:49:39 --> 00:49:48 | doesn't work like that. But once we have this drawn liquidity, we don't care about the right side of the curve all this by side of here. That's not what |
| 293 | 00:49:48 --> 00:49:58 | we're looking for. We're only looking for opportunities to frame shorting opportunities. Okay, so we can see a mall with St. Louis. I'm speaking with the |
| 294 | 00:49:58 --> 00:50:07 | perspective in mind that A trader that's listening to me that can see these scenarios, they're comfortable with looking to be a seller here in reaching down |
| 295 | 00:50:07 --> 00:50:16 | here, they don't necessarily know this is going to occur. And you don't need to. Okay. And that's the benefit of these specific models. Because once you |
| 296 | 00:50:16 --> 00:50:26 | understand it, you just wait for your setups. And that's what it means to know what you're looking for, and wait for it. So between the price points and price, |
| 297 | 00:50:26 --> 00:50:38 | where we notice it and identify the liquidity that the market will seek that is down here, okay, and the target liquidity over here, this may be a draw later |
| 298 | 00:50:38 --> 00:50:46 | on. And that's why we limited to wanting to take our short covered here, not looking for longer term, because the likelihood is, is that we may come down |
| 299 | 00:50:46 --> 00:50:56 | here and create a market maker by profile, and in rally up, so if we have the market maker model occur here, and it rallies up, if we've taken our profits |
| 300 | 00:50:56 --> 00:51:05 | here, this can't hurt us on any short positions. But then again, we don't know for certain that this is going to create that buying opportunity. And that's how |
| 301 | 00:51:05 --> 00:51:15 | we trade in the gray area. We do not trade with specific, this is the way it's going to be panaceas. Okay, beyond those don't exist. We have framework, we have |
| 302 | 00:51:15 --> 00:51:24 | structure, we have things that we look for, and if they materialize, then we engage, but if they don't materialize, we wait for more information. And if they |
| 303 | 00:51:24 --> 00:51:35 | completely unravel, then you know, it's over. So in this case, what would be those scenarios, if we are looking for an area in here where this is our range |
| 304 | 00:51:35 --> 00:51:46 | of opportunity, and you have point one, and then we have point two down here, these are our two selling opportunities, okay, look and go short. If we expect |
| 305 | 00:51:46 --> 00:51:54 | it to go short, and say we sell short here, and we we get stopped out and continues to run, it goes back above these equal highs. That means that we don't |
| 306 | 00:51:54 --> 00:52:05 | see a market maker by model here at all. Because it shouldn't do that until it creates a longer term, run down here, creates the curve, then starts building on |
| 307 | 00:52:05 --> 00:52:17 | the side of the buy side. Once you determine on what you're going to focus in on on your beginning, or your foundational price action model, whichever you feel |
| 308 | 00:52:17 --> 00:52:21 | comfortable with, and I had an email from one of our charter members, he states that |
| 309 | 00:52:23 --> 00:52:33 | up until now the price action models have been useless to him. And he just looks for XYZ and there it is. And that's fine. That's a normal thing. I wasn't |
| 310 | 00:52:33 --> 00:52:44 | offended by that. And he's not the only one that sent that, to me. The models that we talked about are just there for foundational purposes, because some |
| 311 | 00:52:44 --> 00:52:53 | people don't have all this content now. But what am I supposed to do with it, you don't need to have everything at your disposal. But over time, you get to |
| 312 | 00:52:53 --> 00:53:01 | learn when you can apply certain things. And when you're going to feel comfortable using it in your model, you don't have to have every facet of |
| 313 | 00:53:01 --> 00:53:12 | mentorship. And that's the whole point of these models, because none of them are exactly the same. But all of them will get you to a price point understanding |
| 314 | 00:53:12 --> 00:53:19 | where you can carve out setups every single week, and sometimes daily, which exactly what I'm showing you here, point price action model under six. Number |
| 315 | 00:53:19 --> 00:53:30 | seven are universal. So if you understand this information, as we show on dollar Swiss in a little bit, you'll see that it's absolutely 100% What you don't know |
| 316 | 00:53:30 --> 00:53:42 | but always been there, even through the the core content, using the information and then showing you beforehand. And then now I can go back say this is exactly |
| 317 | 00:53:42 --> 00:53:50 | what we've talked about, in theory, from a modular standpoint, now it's been applied. And this is how you use it and and put it into a price action model. So |
| 318 | 00:53:50 --> 00:54:00 | you can start practicing with it and looking for opportunities and knowing that these are your models for your model, and you don't deviate from it. Because |
| 319 | 00:54:00 --> 00:54:09 | you're not going to learn anything by Well, I'm gonna do a little bit of price action model two, and I like model model number one, do number seven today, or |
| 320 | 00:54:09 --> 00:54:19 | I'll do it for this month, don't do that. Whichever one you feel strongly about what makes you feel like, Oh, that makes sense. That's the one you go to. And |
| 321 | 00:54:19 --> 00:54:28 | you start there. All of you are gonna have different levels of understanding. Some of you are much more advanced in my content, some of you are still in the |
| 322 | 00:54:28 --> 00:54:39 | ropes about you know, what you just do is not a lot of you like that, but there are some in fairness and disclosure. You know, we've been now a four year after |
| 323 | 00:54:39 --> 00:54:47 | the mentorship core content. And I have a couple of you that just feel like you're waffling don't know really what you're doing. And that's okay. Don't |
| 324 | 00:54:47 --> 00:54:56 | Don't lay you beat you down. But you have to know that that's normal for some and don't feel like you're you know, less intelligent, or that you're never |
| 325 | 00:54:56 --> 00:55:06 | gonna get this it just means that you got to take a little bit more time. and your your price action model suggestion may not have been shown yet is only |
| 326 | 00:55:06 --> 00:55:14 | seven I got, what, five months ago. So with that said, this is our range of opportunities. So we're going to be looking for our liquidity distribution |
| 327 | 00:55:14 --> 00:55:24 | profile to give us more insights that we have that here. So we're expecting price to go down. That's all we need to know. Do we know that it's going to |
| 328 | 00:55:24 --> 00:55:34 | reach the sell side liquidity pool down here at a discount some PD array? And bounce? No, we don't need to know that. Okay, there's some of you that feel like |
| 329 | 00:55:34 --> 00:55:43 | you gotta know, five trades in advance, you don't need to do that. All you need to know is what's the opportunity right now, if there is none, you wait, okay, |
| 330 | 00:55:43 --> 00:55:53 | it's important that you don't start adding 15 different markets or asset classes or pairs to your your arsenal, just so you can find something, you pick one or |
| 331 | 00:55:53 --> 00:56:04 | two markets, or payer, and you focus there, and you wait for your specific setups. That's how you refine yourself as a trader, an analyst is improved when |
| 332 | 00:56:04 --> 00:56:15 | they're only being exposed to one or two things. It's going to be easy for someone to have an opinion about 30 different markets all one time, and some of |
| 333 | 00:56:15 --> 00:56:23 | them are gonna be right, some aren't. And what's going to happen is you or anyone else watching you, or you make your opinions public, they're going to |
| 334 | 00:56:23 --> 00:56:31 | start doing ratios on how your percentage of accuracy on this and that, and they'll assume right away that you're either not as good as you say you are |
| 335 | 00:56:31 --> 00:56:39 | thought you were and they're gonna tell you all about and what's that going to do. It's going to be demoralizing for you. So your opinions and things that you |
| 336 | 00:56:39 --> 00:56:49 | expect, are meant to go in your study journal, not on social media, because it's not going to recede, like you want it to. I'm ICT and this many times I put |
| 337 | 00:56:49 --> 00:56:58 | things on the internet, they become, you know, the Gospel later on months down the road years later on. I mean, look at like Bitcoin, for instance, you know, I |
| 338 | 00:56:58 --> 00:57:07 | was getting laughed off the internet by crypto Twitter, who's laughing now. So the point is, is you're never going to be received well, doing that, because |
| 339 | 00:57:07 --> 00:57:16 | there's going to be a contrary opinion. And many times I've already admitted that I'm always contrary to whoever, even if it's a mentorship student, if they |
| 340 | 00:57:16 --> 00:57:21 | start putting a chart out there, immediately I'm going in there with a contrarian perspective, it doesn't mean I'm going in there taking a trade |
| 341 | 00:57:21 --> 00:57:30 | immediately on the basis of being contrary, it just means that that's my nature. If you tell me don't walk on the grass, I'm tap dancing on it, it's just the way |
| 342 | 00:57:30 --> 00:57:41 | it is. That's me. So if we understand that the markets going lower, that's all that's necessary. We don't need to know that it's going to bounce here, that's |
| 343 | 00:57:41 --> 00:57:49 | not necessary for you to know that. I don't always know that. No one has that ability. No one has that. You might have it once in a while where you have a |
| 344 | 00:57:49 --> 00:57:58 | rhythm where you can get a good feel for it. And we I think you've seen me do that this past year, once or twice. But there's a couple times where you saw me |
| 345 | 00:57:58 --> 00:58:06 | wait for more information. And I'm waiting for sometimes I waited, and it moves without me. And that's fine. It's not hurting anyone, it's not going to hurt |
| 346 | 00:58:06 --> 00:58:14 | you. It's not going to make you any less of a trader or analyst, none of that stuff is going to be detrimental to your longevity, it's going to increase it, |
| 347 | 00:58:14 --> 00:58:25 | it's going to build it up. So from a theory standpoint, we're looking for the market to trade lower. And that's all that's necessary. Now, if we are bearish, |
| 348 | 00:58:25 --> 00:58:33 | it says basically what we're doing here was essentially adopting the bear mindset, how are we going to go short, so we're looking for levels of |
| 349 | 00:58:34 --> 00:58:41 | redistribution. So it's we're looking for a level of accumulation of shorts, it's consolidated, maybe it's consolidated and ran up and run some stocks, or |
| 350 | 00:58:41 --> 00:58:49 | maybe it's just broke down because of relative analysis, relative strength analysis, suggesting that it shouldn't go higher, say, for Judas swing on a |
| 351 | 00:58:49 --> 00:59:00 | higher timeframe shouldn't be expected. Because of a correlated pair. Maybe it's already done that and say for instance, this is the the cable and the, the |
| 352 | 00:59:00 --> 00:59:12 | Eurodollar maybe went higher on this timeframe. Ran stops and went lower, but because of sympathy, okay, the cables going to move lower and not post that |
| 353 | 00:59:12 --> 00:59:23 | higher high running an old high up and running starts, because then we'll have correlated SMT distribution shown from SMT standpoint Eurodollar making a higher |
| 354 | 00:59:23 --> 00:59:32 | high cable not making a higher high, okay, so whatever that is that forms the basis of your accumulation of short positions. Once that breaks down, we look |
| 355 | 00:59:32 --> 00:59:43 | for returned back to that consolidation. That's point one. It may not be a point one return back to the consolidation, it may go lower and come back and trade |
| 356 | 00:59:43 --> 00:59:53 | into another PD array, okay may create a fair value gap that trades up into on a swing away from that original consolidation. Then we have an expectation that |
| 357 | 00:59:53 --> 01:00:03 | it's going to trade off in the lower same scenario here we're looking for a measure of just read distribution. On the right side of the curve, and price |
| 358 | 01:00:03 --> 01:00:15 | action model number six, we knew that we're looking for fair value gaps and sell stops to form sell stocks and pay Vegas. But that's going to be looking through |
| 359 | 01:00:15 --> 01:00:24 | the curve, which is the midpoint of this overall declined to create a buying opportunity for a price action model standpoint, again, focusing on the short |
| 360 | 01:00:24 --> 01:00:36 | side only because this model is for short sellers only. Or if the condition is we're bearish. This is how you operate in that model. Or that market profile, we |
| 361 | 01:00:36 --> 01:00:48 | look for little areas of distribution in here. So we seek the liquidity trading down, going lower. And once we get to this price point, we have majority if not |
| 362 | 01:00:48 --> 01:00:57 | all of our positions covered. Because we don't know if it's going to create this bounce. And we don't know if it's going to just consolidate go sideways, working |
| 363 | 01:00:57 --> 01:01:10 | continuously go lower. Either case, taking profits here is logical, and it's something that you should be doing. So inside this shaded area, this is our |
| 364 | 01:01:10 --> 01:01:19 | range of opportunity, accumulation point one redistribution point to redistribution, down to a sell side liquidity pool for asset distribution, |
| 365 | 01:01:19 --> 01:01:27 | offsetting what the short positions that were committed here, and ridiculing long positions for a immediate term or long term continuation to the upside. |
| 366 | 01:01:30 --> 01:01:38 | Alright, so with all that, we're going to go back to our example that we're referring to for price action model number six, that took a great deal of time. |
| 367 | 01:01:39 --> 01:01:50 | Okay, it's convenient as it was. that keep you guys waiting. The profile shown on the dollar Swiss is what we were following. If you remember back on Twitter, |
| 368 | 01:01:51 --> 01:01:58 | I tweeted in here, you know, watch these equal lows in here, everything was framed on with what I'm about to teach you and show you in price action for |
| 369 | 01:01:58 --> 01:02:06 | dollar Swiss. But we had equal highs in here. And we also had equal highs in here. So there's a drop in liquidity from a long term perspective here, using a |
| 370 | 01:02:06 --> 01:02:14 | term perspective here and a short term perspective here. And I'm going to go into the actual price chart and break all this down using what has been shown |
| 371 | 01:02:14 --> 01:02:17 | here to give you greater insights and understanding. |
| 372 | 01:02:19 --> 01:02:28 | Alright, so we're looking at the dollar Swiss, this is a weekly chart, I'm gonna get right into it. So you're probably have to watch this video, again multiple |
| 373 | 01:02:28 --> 01:02:39 | times to get the benefit of everything I've jammed into it. But right away, we have several things that should jump off with Shara you now obviously have the |
| 374 | 01:02:39 --> 01:02:50 | benefit of hindsight working for me here but you also have to refer back to my Twitter. And from any other previous commentary mentioned about this pair, we |
| 375 | 01:02:50 --> 01:03:01 | have equal highs in here which is a weekly chart. So it's been several weeks since we moved from this low here. One of the weekly chart there is to market |
| 376 | 01:03:01 --> 01:03:20 | maker models. The weekly market maker by model in continuation is seen here we have consolidation drop down to a level of sell side liquidity. In a rally up |
| 377 | 01:03:20 --> 01:03:33 | continuation on the upside. We have a market maker sell model, which is the consolidation seen here. And I'll map this out for you real quick. So we have a |
| 378 | 01:03:33 --> 01:03:34 | consolidation in here |
| 379 | 01:03:42 --> 01:04:02 | use it do this in green firms don't do it as just a rock shading. And then we have our other consolidation up here. Okay, and above this consolidation, we |
| 380 | 01:04:02 --> 01:04:13 | have that liquidity pool formed by stops. And here's our consolidation here. At least consolidation comes back. This is our re accumulation rallies on up runs |
| 381 | 01:04:13 --> 01:04:28 | out the biceps above this high here, here creates equal highs. And then we enter a measure of distribution towards selling. We're gonna see a sell off but it |
| 382 | 01:04:28 --> 01:04:39 | trades back down to what this specific candle right here. So I'm gonna take this box off and I'm going to show you the two price points that create the |
| 383 | 01:04:39 --> 01:05:00 | consolidation and framework I'm going to show you so we have our order block here and this is gonna have to do for now. The open on this is 9547. So can that |
| 384 | 01:05:00 --> 01:05:11 | number in mind. So 9547 When market was trading software here, all during this period here, we're expecting the dollar to be bearish. Go back and look at our |
| 385 | 01:05:11 --> 01:05:22 | commentary. Okay, so all this all the way down into October, we expected weakness on the dollar, the payers name starts with the dollar. So we're bearish |
| 386 | 01:05:22 --> 01:05:31 | dollar stands to reason that this pair should drop down, okay in sympathy with the weaker dollar, then we entered a period of time where seasonally the dollar |
| 387 | 01:05:31 --> 01:05:43 | index should be bullish that actually occurred the time period. Well, if you look at the low here, we have September 16. And then in this candle right here, |
| 388 | 01:05:43 --> 01:05:54 | it rally off it the last week of September, okay, but it reacted off of the word block. So it was a little bit of the seasonal tendency, but it is what it is the |
| 389 | 01:05:54 --> 01:06:04 | seasonal tendency for the dollar index, being bullish it transitions from September and October go look at your seasonal tendencies that were shown in the |
| 390 | 01:06:04 --> 01:06:17 | mentorship. So we have market maker sell profile here. And in the sell off goes right back down into an area of what re accumulation. So when we know these |
| 391 | 01:06:17 --> 01:06:28 | price points, as I talked about price action, rule number six and seven, these points are going to be sensitive. Okay, and if we see it come back to that level |
| 392 | 01:06:28 --> 01:06:38 | here. We have to assume there's going to be some measure of bounce likely now that bounce, the storyline now has it can bounce. Why where's it gonna bounce up |
| 393 | 01:06:38 --> 01:06:50 | to well enclosing this inefficiency on the sell side? And or run these equal highs? Bullish scenario for seasonal tendency for the dollar index, which had |
| 394 | 01:06:50 --> 01:07:03 | down to a bullish order block. And we look at all the highs up here. They're still clean. Okay, so we have all that going for us in terms of framework. So |
| 395 | 01:07:03 --> 01:07:20 | the bullish or block at 9547, can we calibrate it to 9550, or 9540. So we're going to elect to go with the openness, what we have a open up 9547. So we can |
| 396 | 01:07:20 --> 01:07:33 | do 9545 Or we can do 9540. So when the 9540 calibrating to a zero level, and we'll go down into a daily chart and provide more insights. |
| 397 | 01:07:39 --> 01:07:51 | That so now we're going to jump into a daily chart. So we have our draws on liquidity, we can go down to the order block here when it's dropping down. And |
| 398 | 01:07:51 --> 01:08:02 | we have the buy side liquidity pool in the form of buy stops above these equal highs. And we've given the context of the fractals. That's a vailable at the |
| 399 | 01:08:02 --> 01:08:14 | time, eventually, you'll see it when it's here. It could trade down from there and hit the order block. That's our discount array here at a time when |
| 400 | 01:08:14 --> 01:08:24 | bullishness is expected coming into the dollar index. So we expected to run up and hit these equal highs. Now, if we're trading down here, and we expect them |
| 401 | 01:08:24 --> 01:08:39 | to go up to here, is that a day trade? Is it a scalp? Is it a short term one shot one kill? Short, absolutely. And longer term we have these are here. So we |
| 402 | 01:08:39 --> 01:08:49 | could do a lot of different forms of trading. But universally speaking, it's applicable to all of them focusing on the buy side only once we get to here, |
| 403 | 01:08:50 --> 01:09:03 | okay, so not focusing on shorting during this period here. And until these equal highs are taken out, just makes the probabilities higher now doesn't mean you |
| 404 | 01:09:03 --> 01:09:12 | can't find shorts. Obviously, you can scalp and do what they trade you here and they're going short, but just it goes against institutional order flow, which is |
| 405 | 01:09:12 --> 01:09:23 | why I always say why are you doing that? Okay, there's a lot of people and the crystal where he promotes the idea of not having a bias. And you propose this |
| 406 | 01:09:23 --> 01:09:33 | theory and this is groups that, you know, it's you have to convince me of this and you have to convince me a lot and with all due respect, I don't really have |
| 407 | 01:09:33 --> 01:09:42 | to convince anyone at this note that this is what usually takes place. And the volatility and expansion and magnitude is going to go in the direction of |
| 408 | 01:09:42 --> 01:09:52 | institutional airflow. So if I'm trading against institutional airflow, my expectations are going to be rather limited. In terms of countries currently |
| 409 | 01:09:52 --> 01:09:58 | speaking, if we were trading with institutional alpha, we know that there shouldn't be speed there should be magnitude it should be a great deal of |
| 410 | 01:09:58 --> 01:10:08 | volatility in that direction. isn't working for us, not against us, okay? It's like that salmon analogy I gave in the free tutorials almost eight years ago. |
| 411 | 01:10:09 --> 01:10:16 | The salmon is a strong swimmer, it can swim upstream. But when it gets to the top of the stream, it's dead. You does its business when it gets up here, but |
| 412 | 01:10:16 --> 01:10:23 | it's dead. I don't want to swim against the current. So in my teachings, I want you all to have that same mindset, you don't want to be trading against the |
| 413 | 01:10:23 --> 01:10:32 | grain, or trading against the tide of the delivery of price. If the price is predisposed to go higher, why on earth would you want to go short, the |
| 414 | 01:10:33 --> 01:10:47 | probabilities are higher stacked in your favor when you're trading with institutional flow. So with that said, we're gonna drill down into a daily Okay, |
| 415 | 01:10:47 --> 01:10:57 | was a little bit here and get a little bit more context. So we have our weekly order block here from our weekly standpoint, using price XML number seven's |
| 416 | 01:10:57 --> 01:11:11 | conceptual theory. With this in mind, its price reaching down into this level here, this is our order block. Okay, so we're looking for 9540. We need to |
| 417 | 01:11:11 --> 01:11:20 | justify and convinced ourselves further with the narrative that it's going to go down to this level. But let's refine a little bit more better than just that we |
| 418 | 01:11:20 --> 01:11:27 | go into this area right in here, notice that we had relatively equal highs, okay, we had relatively equal highs here and price did run above it didn't |
| 419 | 01:11:27 --> 01:11:45 | reject and go lower. Okay, continued higher. When I see that what I'm looking for is a rejection block. Okay, so if this is a base of overall order flow, |
| 420 | 01:11:45 --> 01:12:01 | where we saw resistance, then it found support, and then it found support again, okay, they have clearly outlined 9545 as a specific price point. We see that in |
| 421 | 01:12:01 --> 01:12:11 | the form of that weekly waterblock. So it further sells the narrative to us as an analyst that this is very influential in terms of price action. So if that's |
| 422 | 01:12:11 --> 01:12:19 | the case, and we do adequate time trade down to it, I want to be focusing on the rejection block, because that's going to be the discount rate, that's going to |
| 423 | 01:12:19 --> 01:12:36 | be important to me, we do have wicks in here, okay, but in here, rotate this candle, and the lowest close is 9542. Okay, this down close candle, that's what |
| 424 | 01:12:36 --> 01:12:50 | we're looking for, for rejection block, the down close candle, the closing price is 9542 9542. And we're up here, okay, are up in this area here, we expect the |
| 425 | 01:12:50 --> 01:13:01 | price to trade down to the rejection block. The expectation is it should trade to it and through it. But we only needed to trade to it. That's the rejection |
| 426 | 01:13:01 --> 01:13:15 | blob. So price should come down into that price level. And we're going to calibrate it from 9540 to 9542. Just so we have our rejection block on the |
| 427 | 01:13:15 --> 01:13:28 | chart. Okay, and we have these equal lows, it could be reaching for liquidity have a fair value gap in here as well having an equal low liquidity pool resting |
| 428 | 01:13:28 --> 01:13:38 | there as well. So all those are probable scenarios, but I'm looking for that low hanging fruit folks. Low hanging fruit is this rejection. Now, one could argue |
| 429 | 01:13:38 --> 01:13:46 | and say, well, the low hanging fruit right below here in the form of self stopped liquidity pool. I would agree to some degree, but we're close in terms |
| 430 | 01:13:46 --> 01:13:54 | of proximity with these equal lows, it's going to go here, it's probably gonna go to the rejection block and maybe even go for the fair value gap. So I elect |
| 431 | 01:13:54 --> 01:14:04 | to use the fair pay gap. And that's what I had in mind when I was giving you guys the job learning on Twitter about it. Alright, so price breaks down. We |
| 432 | 01:14:04 --> 01:14:15 | have a consolidation in here. Let me zoom out and then we've done our business with that. Alright, so we have our draw a trendline here segment just to |
| 433 | 01:14:16 --> 01:14:30 | delineate the range. So here's our trading range here. And I'll call the pool resting opinion on the buy stops, and take that off just for completeness and |
| 434 | 01:14:30 --> 01:14:41 | clarity. So here's our consolidation. The market trades away from equilibrium, the high and the low, seen here. sells off comes back with this right in here. |
| 435 | 01:14:41 --> 01:14:53 | What is that? That is our first level of redistribution. So there's distribution here. Here's distribution back here, obviously, but this is where the market |
| 436 | 01:14:53 --> 01:15:03 | leaves the consolidation comes back. This is point one of redistribution. There's our first selling opportunity trade down to this level, this is where |
| 437 | 01:15:03 --> 01:15:12 | we're looking for that rejection block. So that's our objective just so happens to be, that's actually the low. Here. 9542. Interesting enough. So, right away, |
| 438 | 01:15:12 --> 01:15:23 | we can start looking for our grading of price swings. So we have this high back here, that's a top bar range. And we're drawing all the way down to the |
| 439 | 01:15:23 --> 01:15:39 | rejection block. Okay, for range purposes. So we have in this essence, we have this price swing, in close proximity, we have a level in here where we saw |
| 440 | 01:15:39 --> 01:15:51 | selling in here, we open trade it back up to it and form a Judas swing. Again, these are daily candles. In here, we had a measure of distribution in here as |
| 441 | 01:15:51 --> 01:16:04 | well. So realize the distribution to get to that level, taking it to the point at which it leaves the consolidation, which is this level here to here, again, |
| 442 | 01:16:04 --> 01:16:17 | green, the price swings, we have price getting in close proximity to this level, we have it here with this one, and invalid consolidation in here. So we don't |
| 443 | 01:16:17 --> 01:16:28 | really get that much like a taught in the mentorship. When we get to the third grade of the pricing, before we get to the objective or Terminus. The origin is |
| 444 | 01:16:28 --> 01:16:41 | here. level one, level two, level three, many times will not create an opportunity because it's just going to be in a hurry to get down to Terminus. So |
| 445 | 01:16:41 --> 01:17:00 | we have that point one, distribution, point to redistribution. And here, it comes really deep in here and itself up again, I gave multiple scenarios on how |
| 446 | 01:17:00 --> 01:17:10 | we could look at these price swings in here. On a four hour and one hour basis. Each one of these was a market maker sell, model, consolidation, rally up |
| 447 | 01:17:10 --> 01:17:22 | distribution, sells off, make a lower low consolidation rallies up runs higher bodies, not clicks. Okay? Distribution, lower low. Okay, here's another one, |
| 448 | 01:17:22 --> 01:17:30 | consolidation, rally up distribution, lower low into Terminus. Okay, and I'll show you what that looks like when we get to the lower timeframes. And we'll do |
| 449 | 01:17:30 --> 01:17:31 | that now. |
| 450 | 01:17:32 --> 01:17:42 | We're focusing on this is our range of opportunity, again, using the price action model number seven criteria. This is all we're looking for. That's the |
| 451 | 01:17:42 --> 01:17:54 | range, okay? How are we going to operate in that up close candle into the consolidation, that is our initial distribution cycle, where we're going to see |
| 452 | 01:17:54 --> 01:18:03 | the first measure of or expect to see rather, selling off, if we continue to see rally up, then that completely negates this whole profile, and we have to put it |
| 453 | 01:18:03 --> 01:18:11 | on the back burner. And we wait. If we took a train we took we took a loss as simple as that. But if we say see a sell off, then we know that we can go back |
| 454 | 01:18:11 --> 01:18:25 | in and look for levels of liquidity the site. And what does that mean? Well, keep going on over here. Keep we'll keep looking over here. What do you have |
| 455 | 01:18:25 --> 01:18:42 | right there? What is this from this candle is high at 9724. In this candles low. 9747. Okay, watch. |
| 456 | 01:18:50 --> 01:19:09 | We had sellside offered right there. And the buy side imbalance starts right there. So right between these two price points, there's only buy side offer, |
| 457 | 01:19:09 --> 01:19:21 | we're expecting price to go lower, we see the sell side delivered here. So once this closes this point right there, this range from high and low, delineate by |
| 458 | 01:19:21 --> 01:19:33 | 9747 and 9723. That becomes a balanced price range. What does that mean? That means that it should act like a natural support or resistance, because the |
| 459 | 01:19:33 --> 01:19:42 | balance of buy side and sell side has been offered. Notice that it's happening when we're expecting it to trade down to here, lower prices during a seasonal |
| 460 | 01:19:42 --> 01:19:53 | tendency for the dollar to be weaker. And we have our PV arrays outlined. Look at the budget canon. Yes, it works through here a little bit by here and a |
| 461 | 01:19:53 --> 01:20:01 | little bit in here. But look at the bulk of the volume delineated by the bodies of the candles. Heavy distribution in here. Heavy distribution in here and in |
| 462 | 01:20:01 --> 01:20:08 | trades down to Terminus. Okay, we're gonna have this insight on our who our chart will drop down into four hour now |
| 463 | 01:20:15 --> 01:20:26 | Okay, so now we have our price range defined here, we're going to look at this range from the first level of redistribution, down to Terminus because Terminus |
| 464 | 01:20:26 --> 01:20:37 | is already predetermined. It's not an after the fact it's a determined price level before it even trades there. Okay, so you can see the the delivery of |
| 465 | 01:20:38 --> 01:20:49 | price rate after trades into that bounced price range. Cut left, you see this up close candle, they bought in here, whatever they bought in here that has to be |
| 466 | 01:20:49 --> 01:21:00 | mitigated. That's mitigation block right there, why it's trading back up into After trading into a bounce price range. In seasonal tendency in an existing |
| 467 | 01:21:00 --> 01:21:13 | price model, the market maker by model of consolidation, we're trading down how far it's gonna trade down, Michael, I'm showing you everything that's shown here |
| 468 | 01:21:13 --> 01:21:25 | is conceptually shown in mentorship. And what I've shown you in the theory portion of model number seven was the first half of this video the distribution |
| 469 | 01:21:25 --> 01:21:34 | cycle that occurs in here and in here, inside these two price ranges, that's a bounce price range. This is a four hour chart, what do you see before I do any |
| 470 | 01:21:34 --> 01:21:47 | further you know, revelation to you, what do you see in the chart, optimal trade entry optimal trade entry then equal lows price going to want to distribute and |
| 471 | 01:21:47 --> 01:22:00 | go lower. Every time we create a new low we do 1020 30 Pip grades below it to get our targets on how far price is going reach till we get to Terminus Okay, so |
| 472 | 01:22:00 --> 01:22:04 | let's go back into price through eight an hourly chart |
| 473 | 01:22:12 --> 01:22:28 | okay, there's our balanced price range, price breaks down, rallies back up, sells all rallies back up hits that bounced price range again, sells off, what's |
| 474 | 01:22:28 --> 01:22:35 | it targeting the liquidity below the low here. So now we have a liquidity pool resting below here. Even though we have this deep rally up, what's actually |
| 475 | 01:22:35 --> 01:22:49 | happening we have a market maker bimodal consolidation okay, this whole consolidation this low to the high that's the that's the range. Okay, price |
| 476 | 01:22:49 --> 01:22:59 | trades back up into it here as your return for consolidation distributions that kick in does okay and then it rallies back up into this level in here it's up |
| 477 | 01:22:59 --> 01:23:10 | close candle redistribution sells off what's the targeting the lows okay. So the market is going to seek liquidity below for low resistance liquidity run price |
| 478 | 01:23:10 --> 01:23:20 | has a rally all the way up. This is not in our model. Maybe we took something in here as a sell maybe got wiped out got stopped, no problem, it returns back to |
| 479 | 01:23:20 --> 01:23:33 | the balanced price range. price breaks down again. So what do we see here we have consolidation re accumulation re accumulation three times see that so this |
| 480 | 01:23:33 --> 01:23:46 | is the highest one when price breaks down below that there's our market structure shift price rallies up this is our low risk entry sells off right here |
| 481 | 01:23:47 --> 01:23:56 | this is this next sell why because it's focused on this side of the curve it reversed here. So go left all up arms are all down close candles is what we're |
| 482 | 01:23:56 --> 01:24:08 | focusing on in swing lows, there's our price point to match up our liquidity so it's right over here. Smaller short term optimal trade entry if you go into a 15 |
| 483 | 01:24:08 --> 01:24:23 | minute timeframe sells off into what bullish candle prior to down mu was this bearish order block optimal trade entry at the point of our liquidity |
| 484 | 01:24:23 --> 01:24:31 | distribution profile think about what I showed you this is where they should sell off because they bought long here they want to mitigate here then we'll |
| 485 | 01:24:31 --> 01:24:43 | have what a low resistance liquidity run to attack the sell stocks below this low it runs aggressively for it okay. We have a market maker bimodal |
| 486 | 01:24:43 --> 01:24:55 | consolidation trades down distribution so all rally distribution sell off once it reached for liquidity below here. Now we consolidate it rallies again it was |
| 487 | 01:24:55 --> 01:25:06 | above comes back down retraces into what is up close candle It was really sold before to get a mitigated right here, rally up again to what the run above the |
| 488 | 01:25:06 --> 01:25:16 | cell stops. All of this is production model number six, but dovetailing with price action model number seven, because now we have an imbalance in here. So |
| 489 | 01:25:16 --> 01:25:25 | side delivery trades back up and that is our discount and premium arrays working together. Now this is a premium array, it sells off what's it going to attack |
| 490 | 01:25:25 --> 01:25:35 | the liquidity resting below here selling short optimal trench if you want to look for this, the pattern like that, okay, fair value gap here runs lower |
| 491 | 01:25:35 --> 01:25:47 | ultimately trying to reach for that 9542 rejection block or lower. So price makes a rumble of this low here and then creates what consolidation rally return |
| 492 | 01:25:47 --> 01:26:00 | to consolidation. Rally again, what's it run out the previous high. So now we can look for what distribution cycles market breaks down. This is the only one |
| 493 | 01:26:00 --> 01:26:08 | we have for a shift and Mark starts to break. It doesn't happen till here. So what does that mean? The next one is the consolidation. So if it's this one, if |
| 494 | 01:26:08 --> 01:26:16 | we get a sell off in here, it's going to be much more pronounced not just a shallow rumble and loose and liquid it does runs all the way down to Terminus. |
| 495 | 01:26:17 --> 01:26:26 | Okay, so there's a lot of dovetailing of all the things that you aren't mentorship, it's been shown here, but on the sell side of an existing bullish |
| 496 | 01:26:26 --> 01:26:42 | scenario, all of this shown inside of this portion of price action, this is the usable part of the fractal using the concepts and the liquidity distribution |
| 497 | 01:26:43 --> 01:27:02 | profile that shot I showed you in module number six and number seven here. I go back out to a daily chart Okay, and we zoom in on this short term low here, the |
| 498 | 01:27:02 --> 01:27:20 | low comes in 9578 essentially is basically 9575. Okay, so 9575 Because if we're up here, and we're trading down to this low if we're expecting that low to be |
| 499 | 01:27:20 --> 01:27:30 | taken out, it's reasonable expect 9575 will be traded to right because we're looking for five levels and zero levels. So if we're calibrating to 9575 10 pips |
| 500 | 01:27:30 --> 01:27:45 | below that would be 9565 then 20 pips will be 9555 and in 30 pips will be what 9545 So even if we don't use a rejection, why can we calibrate to again low |
| 501 | 01:27:45 --> 01:27:57 | hanging fruit, looking for the easy objectives and targets and only working with that not trying to be Mr. Precise, don't try to be ICT clung. Low this low in |
| 502 | 01:27:57 --> 01:28:11 | 30, Pip grade swing potential to 9545. And again, it only was when they only went three pips below that to 9542. But we already had 9540 calories from a |
| 503 | 01:28:11 --> 01:28:22 | weekly order block. Once this is arrived, that once we understand that we have a context of work within using the narrative that the price is providing us. Now |
| 504 | 01:28:22 --> 01:28:36 | obviously watching this, it feels like an oversimplification. And believe me, I appreciate that and I knew the gravity of what I'm saying it seems like it's an |
| 505 | 01:28:36 --> 01:28:44 | oversimplification, but I'm also taking into account that you have gone through all of the core content and you've watched me use these things. And I'm telling |
| 506 | 01:28:44 --> 01:28:56 | you how I do it. Everything that I teach in the mentorship is being applied here. The imbalance that's shown right in here okay, right in here I'm gonna |
| 507 | 01:28:56 --> 01:29:09 | show you that one as well zoom in we had this candles Hi there at 9762 |
| 508 | 01:29:14 --> 01:29:23 | Remember everything has to rebalance as the whole point of what the markets are doing all the time. It's not anything other than that it's all liquidity based. |
| 509 | 01:29:25 --> 01:29:38 | So on a daily chart, this candles low here is 9768 Okay, so I'm talking about six pips, and separation. And we'll leave this one here as the overall balance. |
| 510 | 01:29:38 --> 01:29:49 | So a rebalancing. On the buy side here we have a fair value gap here and we have a fair value gap that was outlined from this low right here. We'll just leave it |
| 511 | 01:29:49 --> 01:30:05 | as it is. And look at the delivery of price. The highest exactly 9767 one pip away from our predetermined Vega again over here. What are we using, you got to |
| 512 | 01:30:05 --> 01:30:17 | cut through all this and determine where the imbalance is. That's what the algorithm does. That's all IP dysfunction is is rebalance, and or engineer. It's |
| 513 | 01:30:17 --> 01:30:26 | simple, it's as simple as that. Now what makes it hard is determining what is going on at the time in the market and fitting a narrative to what you see in |
| 514 | 01:30:26 --> 01:30:36 | price and the possible scenarios that could unfold relative to a bias. And what's the bias based on a weekly chart, because that's where the large ones are |
| 515 | 01:30:36 --> 01:30:45 | building their their bias and using a daily chart for entry. And it's that's the whole thing in a nutshell. Once we understand that, and we take a step back, |
| 516 | 01:30:45 --> 01:30:51 | then you can say, Oh, wow, look at this. You know, we entered a period of September October bullishness for the dollar, it hit it weekly bullish order |
| 517 | 01:30:51 --> 01:31:00 | block, may completed the market maker by model. And now we have these equal highs up here. So we should see what price should reach up. And it does hits it, |
| 518 | 01:31:00 --> 01:31:13 | market maker by model completes right here with this. And not surprisingly, we see the market sell off. So hopefully you've learned something from model number |
| 519 | 01:31:13 --> 01:31:24 | six and model number seven. That really is like the core underpinnings to what I do when my weekly analysis that I mean, I don't really do anything more than |
| 520 | 01:31:24 --> 01:31:35 | just what I just taught. Thus now, if I'd stop and don't do any more price action models, and I never teach any more, you know, everything that I use in my |
| 521 | 01:31:35 --> 01:31:46 | weekly analysis. That's it. I don't teach anything beyond that, because it's easy for me to operate on a week by week basis, using what I've just taught. So |
| 522 | 01:31:46 --> 01:31:58 | everything from today's video going backwards. Everything I've ever taught, you know, now, everything I use to make my weekly analysis commentary and you seen |
| 523 | 01:31:58 --> 01:32:10 | how consistent it is, if that's all you aim for, or just three quarters of that, okay, you're gonna do very, very, very well. You don't need a whole lot to do |
| 524 | 01:32:10 --> 01:32:21 | very well in this business. But you do need a model and need to have a context to work within. And I provided that with you now. So next time wish good luck |
| 525 | 01:32:21 --> 01:32:22 | and good trading. |