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ICT Charter PAM 6.2 - Amplified Lesson

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-02-09 09:34

Outline

00:29 - Seasonal trends in the dollar-Swiss franc pair.

- ICT highlights a seasonal tendency for the dollar index to bottom in late September/early October, with a strong correlation between 15- and 33-year averages.
- Analyzes seasonal tendencies in forex markets using macro and technical indicators.

04:57 - Analyzing COT data for commercial traders.

- Ict plots CU T data for commercials, removing small specs and syncing with Twitter for easy access.
- Ict highlights the middle range of the data, plotted on an application like paint for easy visualization.
- ICT argues that commercials' sentiment shifted in August, leading to whipsawed retail traders.
- David Copperfield used misdirection to make the Statue of Liberty disappear.

11:12 - Analyzing the dollar Swiss currency pair using price action model number six.

- ICT identifies high probability trading opportunities by analyzing commercial trader behavior.
- ICT analyzes price action and identifies key levels of support and resistance using a top-down approach.
- ICT expects the market to reach 9545-9550 level in September, based on cleared sellside liquidity and buyside amounts.
- The price should not continuously drop down to equal lows, as the sell stops have been run over, and the market will look to expand to buyside liquidity.

17:42 - Technical analysis of currency pair.

- ICT: Institutions bought in the algorithm will want to go back to the price point where the body trade occurred, as it's the more focal point.
- Market Maker sell model: Expect to see this pair (dollar vs. Swissy) rally, with liquidity resting above highs and going back further to the left.
- ICT discusses potential trading opportunities based on weekly chart analysis.

22:39 - Market structure and trading strategies.

- ICT: Up close candles support price on the right side of the curve, indicating a buy opportunity.
- Price dips into candles, picks up orders, and expands on the upside, with equal highs taken.
- ICT explains how to use price action model and seasonal tendencies to identify potential buying opportunities in the market.
- For day traders, ICT highlights the importance of considering the number of days until the next open and the low of the day to determine potential entry points.
- Trader blends commercial Smart Money, interest, and seasonal tendencies for high-probability setups.

30:14 - Technical analysis and market structure in the Dollar Index.

- ICT identifies potential long entry point in Dollar Index, targeting weekly and monthly equal highs.
- ICT identifies areas of liquidity and mitigation, expecting acceleration to the upside.
- ICT identifies buying on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, with stops expanded on the upside.

Transcription

1 00:00:29 --> 00:00:43 ICT: Hey folks, welcome back. We're looking at the color indexes, a seasonal tendency. As we went through the mentorship, this focus of the strongest
2 00:00:43 --> 00:00:56 seasonal tendencies was one of the primary reasons for referring to seasonal tendencies at all. And while they are not a panacea, they are very good
3 00:00:56 --> 00:01:10 roadmaps. And it was my intention to at least stimulate your thought processes around the idea of looking for those very routine, repeating seasonal
4 00:01:10 --> 00:01:25 tendencies. And if you go back and watch the bags, the high quality, forgot row names are actually the best seasonal tendencies, the ones I focus on, you'll see
5 00:01:25 --> 00:01:37 that this is one of those in the West. And we have a seasonal tendency for the dollar index to create a low for in the last week of September, and first week
6 00:01:37 --> 00:01:54 of October, as depicted here. If you look at the the red line in here, this delineates the 15 years seasonal tendency, and a blue line delineates the 33
7 00:01:54 --> 00:02:15 year seasonal tendency. They have a denotation for five year, but it doesn't appear on the chart itself. The importance is the correlation between the 15
8 00:02:15 --> 00:02:29 year and the 33 year average when they both agree, and it shows a strong term. That, to me, some signifies something that warrants our attention, or at least
9 00:02:29 --> 00:02:45 more, it's my attention. Let's say it that way. So I believe when it's bullish, or extremely bullish, we could see a low form as early as 21st, or 20th. This is
10 00:02:45 --> 00:02:59 round two, and even numbers because my OCD flares like that. But this season fancy here shares to 21st of September. Now when weaker years onwards, when it
11 00:02:59 --> 00:03:10 maybe isn't so bullish, if you will, it may take as late as mid October, to show the seasonal tendency to come to fruition for bullish dollar. With that said,
12 00:03:11 --> 00:03:21 it's not important that we split hairs about the specific date, because it just gives us a window of opportunity to look for technicals to come in alignment
13 00:03:21 --> 00:03:30 with that. So this price action model really is just gonna like bring the things together with a real example that we've watched, and followed through to
14 00:03:30 --> 00:03:40 completion using the Swiss franc. So if we go to the Swiss franc, seasonal tendency, let's do that. Now. Guess what we see. So suffering, the seasonal
15 00:03:40 --> 00:03:56 tendency, showing a important high forming again the last week of September and going into October, shown here. And I really didn't want to put my cursor
16 00:03:56 --> 00:04:08 because you can see it draws there's crosshairs on it. But I wanted to use this chart because much cleaner looking versus the PDF format that comes along with
17 00:04:08 --> 00:04:22 this seasonal tendency from more research. So looking at the the likelihood that we would see stronger dollar seasonally, and a weaker Swiss franc. Seasonally.
18 00:04:23 --> 00:04:34 It goes without saying that the dollar Swiss pair in forex should warrant a rally of some sorts, but we have to look for things from a technical standpoint
19 00:04:34 --> 00:04:45 to support that idea. While we do have the macro seasonal tendency here, we have to look at what are the smart money traders doing. So now we're going to bring
20 00:04:45 --> 00:04:54 in the co2 data and the hedging program that I taught through the mentorship. Okay, so we're looking at the December contract with the Swiss franc price
21 00:04:54 --> 00:05:07 action shown here is daily. And what I have plotted is the CU T data for the commercials. And I removed the small specks in the large funds, just to keep our
22 00:05:07 --> 00:05:18 focus on the commercials and a few of my students, and I appreciate this, by the way, they said that you could go to bar chart.com, you got to sign up for an
23 00:05:18 --> 00:05:26 account, I think going make this work. And then once you create an account, I just like mine through Twitter, so you can sync it through your Twitter account,
24 00:05:26 --> 00:05:37 once you sign into Twitter, go up to usually is up here like login or create an account, just create an account linking signing in with your Twitter. And it's
25 00:05:38 --> 00:05:49 pretty quick and easy, painless. But then you go over to interactive chart, and you load up the symbol here, S number six z's in zipper, one, eight. Now we'll
26 00:05:49 --> 00:05:56 give you the December contract here, then you will go to studies, click on that add the CRT
27 00:06:02 --> 00:06:11 to enter traders, that you see the little eyeball is dark here, that means that the commercials are the only ones being shown, I wanted to add the large specs
28 00:06:11 --> 00:06:21 back for the small specs backup, just tap the the eyeball like that. Okay. So since I don't want to make any changes, I'm just gonna come back out of that.
29 00:06:21 --> 00:06:34 And now once you have this chart here, what I do is I get the highest reading in the data, which is about 67,800. And song doesn't have to be perfect, okay, it's
30 00:06:34 --> 00:06:47 not that you have to have the exact number. And I get the lowest reading, which is over here in the last 12 months. And then by having that range, I just go
31 00:06:47 --> 00:06:57 into the middle now you can do it mathematically can take the high and the low and determine what that middle is and then plot it. But again, I don't go crazy
32 00:06:57 --> 00:07:07 over it, you can if you want to the one of the few few times that my OCD doesn't really flare up, it's not that imperative, that precise about what we're looking
33 00:07:07 --> 00:07:18 for. But once you have this information, then you can go over to an application like paint on your computer. And if you want to do this for your own records,
34 00:07:18 --> 00:07:27 this is I just do it to highlight it so you guys can see it graphically. And clearly. But as you can see, we're going into the last week of September going
35 00:07:27 --> 00:07:39 into October, price makes a rally. Now, price action model number six is focusing on the fractal, which is the market maker by model. And so models
36 00:07:40 --> 00:07:51 focusing only on the buy side. Okay, so the futures contract you can see in here, the commercials are the last 12 months. Even though we're not really
37 00:07:51 --> 00:08:02 looking at the zero basis line, it's traditionally used for CFD data and analysis, when I look forward to the 12 month range, and six months range in to
38 00:08:02 --> 00:08:13 your range and a four year range. But for the near term, the 12 month, and sometimes the six month is just enough to get your quarterly shift expected,
39 00:08:14 --> 00:08:22 bullish or bearish. Okay, so you can get a read on the commercials more accurately, in my opinion, you have to go through the data yourself to convince
40 00:08:22 --> 00:08:31 yourself don't take my word on it. It's much more powerful when you see it. Because see, there's a major accumulation phase in here commercials were heavily
41 00:08:31 --> 00:08:45 long, relative to its 12 month range. Okay, so the highest high and the lowest low, they were already factored by March to July, going into August. So this
42 00:08:45 --> 00:08:56 swing below the range high in the range low. That's a shift in their sentiment towards they're doing a lot more selling on a net basis than they are buying,
43 00:08:57 --> 00:09:11 even though this whole process of data is still classically viewed as net long. And that's the reason why retail traders get whipsawed. And well, for lack of a
44 00:09:11 --> 00:09:19 better word, crushed using co T data. They put too much emphasis on whether they're bullish or bearish relative to that zero line. And to me, I think that
45 00:09:19 --> 00:09:28 zero line is a red herring. They're giving you enough data to say, look, we're being transparent, we're showing you where our positions are. But they're
46 00:09:28 --> 00:09:38 skewing the data. So it's kind of like you've ever watched that. It's kind of old people that are probably in their 40s who remember this, but on TV and in
47 00:09:38 --> 00:09:49 states there used to be a program every year David Copperfield would do this whole hour show different new magic tricks and such. And one hour he made the
48 00:09:49 --> 00:09:58 Statue of Liberty disappear or so he said, but really what it was is you were looking through a picture frame and the camera and a small select group of
49 00:09:58 --> 00:10:08 spectators and were forced to view the Statue of Liberty through this picture frame and had a wall around. So you're limited to only seeing that statue of
50 00:10:08 --> 00:10:16 liberty or point of focus through that picture frame. Then he closed the curtains, and then opened them moments later. And you can see that the
51 00:10:16 --> 00:10:25 helicopter that was flying around earlier, is flying around in empty space. Little did you know that the camera because it's on the same pedestal that this
52 00:10:25 --> 00:10:36 small little section of audience members were sitting on that were connected to that window, all he did was shifted the entire platform a few degrees to the
53 00:10:36 --> 00:10:45 left or right, I can't remember when it was, when you open the curtains up, you'd look through that small little space of the window. And your perspective,
54 00:10:45 --> 00:10:57 would convince you quickly that what statuary disappeared. Now, all he did was skewed the information. You he gave you something to look at? Well, this is what
55 00:10:57 --> 00:11:08 I believe to see your T data does from a classic interpretation. They show you just enough. But the information is really only usable when you look at it in
56 00:11:08 --> 00:11:19 terms of well think about what what the data is telling us. Okay, we're tracking the buying and selling of three groups, small specks are not concerned with
57 00:11:19 --> 00:11:28 because they're typically wrong. Large funds or large backs, they're classically right and trending moves. They're always wrong. The tops and the bottoms, tops
58 00:11:28 --> 00:11:37 and the bottoms are always called by the commercial traders. So if we are focusing on the commercial traders, we'll know with a great deal of certainty,
59 00:11:38 --> 00:11:51 not absolution, but through to certain certainty that the ebb and flow of price action will be more or less dictated by their actions. So if we see a net long
60 00:11:51 --> 00:12:02 position here, as shown, we could reasonably expect to see some bullishness come into the marketplace. We see consolidation, market leaves consolidation comes
61 00:12:02 --> 00:12:15 back to the consolidation, there's our return to the market maker sell model rallies up another buying opportunity. So is it re accumulation, accumulation re
62 00:12:15 --> 00:12:26 accumulation, Smart Money reversal, low risk sell, redistribution, redistribution, clearing the consolidation out over here. But the focus is right
63 00:12:26 --> 00:12:36 in here. This is what I want to bring your attention to. So price action model number six. What we're looking for is a high probability condition that repeats
64 00:12:37 --> 00:12:45 just about every year. And that's why it's framed on what I taught in the mentorship by way of looking at the seasonal tendencies. We've already framed
65 00:12:45 --> 00:12:57 out the last week of September going into October bullish dollar bearish seasonal for the Swiss franc. So now we have at that same time, the co2 hedging
66 00:12:57 --> 00:13:09 program application that I use for TLT data which is only taught here, this gives us a sell program. So we're seeing a heavy distribution and their net
67 00:13:09 --> 00:13:19 longs but more importantly, it would last what month range it gives us like a typical over sold overbought range, like an indicator, the only thing I did was
68 00:13:19 --> 00:13:32 used the data to measure their real buying and selling and not using that forced perspective of or the net loss or net short basis like the traditional retail
69 00:13:32 --> 00:13:43 perspective teaches, okay. There are times when that is useful, yes, but predominantly, I go to this before I even consider the net lower net short basis
70 00:13:44 --> 00:13:55 traditionally seen with CFD analysis. So now what that information let's go over to the dollar CAD pair for forex, and fill out some information relative to
71 00:13:55 --> 00:14:09 price action model number six. Okay, so we're looking at the dollar Swiss as the monthly chart and I'm gonna go into the same progression that I taught in the
72 00:14:09 --> 00:14:19 mentorship. Go back and look at the position trading the swing trading, the short term trading, the day trading and scalping lessons and how we started
73 00:14:19 --> 00:14:31 those lessons from which chart those to what timeframe lower in that typical progression towards a top down approach. Okay, so with that said, we're looking
74 00:14:31 --> 00:14:50 at the monthly chart here, the dollar Swiss and this candle right here. Okay, there's our September candle. The low comes in at 9542. Okay, 9542. That's
75 00:14:50 --> 00:15:01 essentially about midpoint. On the mean threshold of this last our close candle that cleared out these equal lows. So all we're doing is using the PD re matrix?
76 00:15:02 --> 00:15:17 And are we looking at a premium market or a discount market at this moment here, when price trades down? That is a discount market. Where should the market reach
77 00:15:17 --> 00:15:31 for while we have equal highs here, we have equal highs here, we also have equal highs here. There's a large draw on liquidity here, above these equal highs, and
78 00:15:31 --> 00:15:41 we trade back down into the mean threshold of an order block that will be deemed bullish. Also, we already cleared a level of stops. So therefore, this
79 00:15:41 --> 00:15:52 retracement should not come back down to this level here because we've already cleared a level of sellside liquidity market will look to expand to a buyside
80 00:15:52 --> 00:15:55 liquidity or in other words, that liquidity pool above old highs.
81 00:15:56 --> 00:16:12 So we will be looking for in September, and going forward a rally of some sort around that 9545 to 9550 level. So that's our rough idea. Okay. 95 mid figures,
82 00:16:12 --> 00:16:23 it's called net SR guestimation. And it's how you would have done it before the actual flow was formed. Also, we have this buyside amounts from this candles
83 00:16:23 --> 00:16:37 high at 9584. So we could reasonably expect to see that trade down to that as well. The rebounds this by side imbalance, a sell side delivery. Okay, so we're
84 00:16:37 --> 00:16:47 going to drop down into a weekly chart and get a better read. Okay, so now we're looking at the dollar Swiss on a weekly perspective. And we see them as equal
85 00:16:47 --> 00:16:57 lows that were rated here said the price should not continuously drop down here. So for those that we question, well, how would you know, to anticipate a buy
86 00:16:57 --> 00:17:06 here and not see it trade down here or trade down to this order block or here, we've already done the work by running the sell stops over here, any
87 00:17:06 --> 00:17:19 aggressively moved away, your eye goes to what again, think the pdra matrix. This down close candle is a bolt or block price should trade back down into that
88 00:17:20 --> 00:17:37 the open on this candle is 9547. Case 9547 is the level we'd be looking for. Remember, we started with 9550 mid figure relative to monthly bullish order
89 00:17:37 --> 00:17:47 block the mean threshold, then we dropped down to a weekly and we refined it even further. Again, not getting caught up in all of this drop down thinking,
90 00:17:47 --> 00:17:56 Okay, it's the end of the world. We're leaving these empty highs up here with all kinds of liquidity resting above that and longer term going back to the
91 00:17:56 --> 00:18:06 left. As mentioned on the monthly chart, if you look at the data in terms of discount to premium, we are in a discount market here relative to the high and
92 00:18:06 --> 00:18:23 the low. Okay, so we're at equilibrium to discount. And we're also at a PD array in the form of a weekly bullish order block. So if we add data, we add the order
93 00:18:23 --> 00:18:35 block. Now the question is, is why am I not using the wick here. If you look at all the price action here, we had this week, we had the body trade down through
94 00:18:35 --> 00:18:48 here, we had a wick down into it here, that to me, the body is the more focal point because of its only single down close candle here and then it's all up. So
95 00:18:48 --> 00:18:56 this is where institutions bought in the algorithm will want to go back to that price point to allow more opportunity to go long from a longer term perspective.
96 00:18:56 --> 00:19:09 So for position trading, you would wait for this opportunity to hear now in terms of the market maker sell model, which would be seen here as consolidation,
97 00:19:10 --> 00:19:25 rally away returned to consolidation, re accumulation, rally up distribution, re accumulation, distribution and then a longer term correction. This would not
98 00:19:25 --> 00:19:33 need to come down here to clear this original consolidation or year because the narrative is these equal lows have already ran out over here, so stop you're
99 00:19:33 --> 00:19:44 going remember the bullishness of the dollar seasonally the weak seasonal tendency for the Swissy is occurring September October. So we're going to expect
100 00:19:44 --> 00:19:54 to see this pair dollar Swissy rally. And the underlying narrative is there's liquidity resting above these highs and going back further to the left relative
101 00:19:54 --> 00:20:06 to that monthly chart as mentioned a moment ago. So this is where Market Maker sell model picks up buying. Remember where there's times where the distribution
102 00:20:06 --> 00:20:16 cycle doesn't go? redistribution, redistribution and clearing the consolidation. Many times it'll accumulate over here in terms of the directional bias. And
103 00:20:16 --> 00:20:31 that's what we saw here. Now the 9547 level is opening price of the enclosed candle that we see here. And we're gonna move over to this candle and get the
104 00:20:31 --> 00:20:49 actual Low. Low comes in at 9542. So we're only off by five pips, using a weekly chart to drop down into daily case now we have our daily chart here. Now we have
105 00:20:49 --> 00:20:59 a little bit more detail in terms of looking at what we would be expecting for shorter term trades. In other words, swing trades to short term, we have a
106 00:20:59 --> 00:21:12 really nice equal high in here. So bicep liquidity pool resting just above there, as noted and has been shared before the fact that here we had price come
107 00:21:12 --> 00:21:22 back to the consolidation here with an up close candle. So they sold into this, and then distribution came in, they sold under this rally distribution one more
108 00:21:22 --> 00:21:35 time they sold into it, and distribution, making us Smart Money reversal, then a low risk buying right here, reading here, so we're gonna look at a four hour
109 00:21:35 --> 00:21:45 chart in a moment, but say you missed this one. Okay. You can be a day trader after this day here, because in decisiveness, but we already know the backdrop
110 00:21:45 --> 00:21:55 and narrative is what a weekly bullish order block with liquidity pools resting above the market dorma seasonal tendency for dollar to rally and Swiss the fall.
111 00:21:56 --> 00:22:08 So we could be using power three, on this day here. Trading, expecting the low of the day, the form initially and then expansion on the upside for these equal
112 00:22:08 --> 00:22:19 highs, and I tweeted the time to look for these highs to be taken out. When you saw that happen. The very date was tweeted, price then continuously moves
113 00:22:19 --> 00:22:32 higher. Okay, so you can use a day traders model getting in here, but using the narrative that that could be a short term trade entry, looking for these highs
114 00:22:32 --> 00:22:41 and be taken out and then up into this candle here, waiting for it to rally through this up close candle. Because this up close candle because it was a sell
115 00:22:41 --> 00:22:54 side of the curve. And Lord is this low here. Everything to the left of it. Any up close candle should support price on the right side of the curve. We're
116 00:22:54 --> 00:23:05 buying in this up close candle here. We're getting here, we should expect to see upside expansion. We see that the next day we open trade down why to do that. We
117 00:23:05 --> 00:23:14 return back to these up close candles here. And here. Because they sold here, they're going to mitigate that with this drop down. That's what's going on. So
118 00:23:14 --> 00:23:24 this is an area to buy again, not requiring the market to come all the way back down to here it's not essential. This is enough to get a buy. Again using power
119 00:23:24 --> 00:23:37 three expansion on the upside. Once this candle has been traded above, over here, we expect to see a retracement back down into this candle because again,
120 00:23:37 --> 00:23:46 this is the distribution or the sold when price gets back above it later on think how the commercials trade. They do a lot of hedging so they can buy in
121 00:23:46 --> 00:24:02 here and sell so the positions that they're short on they can mitigate that they don't have a loss. Now the positions that they bought they want to add to they
122 00:24:02 --> 00:24:22 do it right here we add a range. Here's our up close candle for all out across the curve. Boom, here we go. price dips down into it picks up more orders after
123 00:24:22 --> 00:24:35 closing in an imbalance the high to low so we have a fair value gap right here. price comes down to fair value one more time runs the stops. Then expansion on
124 00:24:35 --> 00:24:47 the upside equal highs have been taken. Equal highs have been taken. The day trade entry used down here you take profits off here because you could be wrong.
125 00:24:48 --> 00:24:58 If price trades above here take a little bit off as price trades down again you buy more see add back a little bit that you took off here is that narrative is
126 00:24:58 --> 00:25:10 being further are built upon this raid below this low here, we don't see that as a market structure break to the lower end or downside. Why? Because the
127 00:25:10 --> 00:25:21 narrative has not changed, we have yet to take out the equal highs here and on the weekly and monthly, that by side liquidity pool, or pools are still intact.
128 00:25:21 --> 00:25:30 So that's where the draw liquidity is. So when we see the market trade below and a low, how we're using this price action model, is we're using the higher
129 00:25:30 --> 00:25:40 timeframe fractal, with the seasonal tendencies. And the narrative that those buy stops in the form of a liquid report resting above highs on the weekly and
130 00:25:40 --> 00:25:49 monthly. That's the long term draw. Because the commercials are in agreement with that, relative to the hedging program that I showed with the co2 data.
131 00:25:50 --> 00:26:03 So when we see this low breached, we can be a buyer of that. So we can trade this in terms of buying external range liquidity, buying up to sell stops on a
132 00:26:03 --> 00:26:16 turtle soup plate move in and rally away. Price takes out these equal highs, you can take a little bit off there to pay the trader. And then price creates
133 00:26:16 --> 00:26:27 another retracement lower price expands, trades through it, we open trade down into the order block again, pick up more orders and then expands into the
134 00:26:27 --> 00:26:38 upside. This to me looks like this near term profit taking. I don't think we're done. If we do tray below these lows here, that is going to be problematic for
135 00:26:38 --> 00:26:52 the overall fractal. But from a swing trader, or short term trader that use this entry here, the stop loss would be moved below that low here. Because it's
136 00:26:52 --> 00:26:59 already been defended once, twice after stop run. Now this is a good level to put your stop below because we've already done the work. If it trades back down
137 00:26:59 --> 00:27:10 to that level, it's no good. And he doesn't mean it can't go higher later on. It just means that you position management, it's a good practice to do that. Now
138 00:27:10 --> 00:27:20 what does that mean for a trader that wants to be a day trader, we already went through the position traders entry using a day traders model for a short term
139 00:27:20 --> 00:27:34 trader. And we looked at other short term entries in here. As a day trader, look at how many days we have relative to the open and the low being near the low of
140 00:27:34 --> 00:27:45 the day. Whenever it's the large range date, the low is formed very often with a very small wick to the downside, in the majority of the ranges are on the upside
141 00:27:45 --> 00:27:57 with expansion. That's the fractal and information and the delivery of price. We've used the macro element of our timeframe, seasonal tendencies and CRT. So
142 00:27:57 --> 00:28:11 we blended those three pillars, which is smart money, the hard timeframe narrative and institutional order flow. And we blended them with a clear
143 00:28:11 --> 00:28:22 repeating phenomena, the market maker buy and sell models. They're very clear. They're not ambiguous, the things that we see on the left side will be
144 00:28:22 --> 00:28:30 applicable. On the other side. In other words, where we see the term as Smartline. Reversal. It's not imperative that you get that so if you see it in
145 00:28:30 --> 00:28:39 hindsight, it's okay because it still gives you all the information. So okay, if I missed the SLO and starts to rally here are rallies here. Who cares, you know
146 00:28:39 --> 00:28:52 that these upclose candles here are where the work is going to be done. Going forward, attacking the liquidity above the market. It's as simple as that. Now,
147 00:28:52 --> 00:29:04 notice that it's framed on a seasonal tendency that we went over in the mentorship. That means that you're going to be waiting for these to set up and
148 00:29:04 --> 00:29:11 you're going to milk them for everything they're worth. You can't take blood from a turnip, obviously, you can't you can't just go in here and willy nilly
149 00:29:11 --> 00:29:19 just trade anything you want. You want high probability conditions, you want high probability setups. And the way you get those is using the seasonal
150 00:29:19 --> 00:29:28 tendencies. The commitment of traders data to support the idea, you know, are the commercials, in fact doing what we'd expect to see them do. And that
151 00:29:28 --> 00:29:39 technicals can help alignment as well. So we're blending those three elements of commercial Smart Money, interest, the seasonal influence should take place, and
152 00:29:39 --> 00:29:51 then institutional order flow using the PDAs and the pdra matrix. Everything's here, nothing is missing. And you saw me outline it you on Twitter pointed
153 00:29:51 --> 00:30:05 everybody's attention to it. The general public that follow me on Twitter, they have no idea what's going Come on. So if I were to post this chart, not like
154 00:30:05 --> 00:30:16 this, but if I said, you know, market maker by model complete. In their mind, you're thinking, Okay, now it's time to sell it. That's not true. What we're
155 00:30:16 --> 00:30:26 looking for is a continuation of this narrative to reach for there's weekly equal highs and or longer term, monthly weekly highs. So from a physician
156 00:30:26 --> 00:30:37 standpoint, long term you'd buy down here, okay, or you would look for an opportunity in here to get long, and then you use your love here as a stop. Or
157 00:30:37 --> 00:30:46 you could use the Lowe's here and stop because this whole work is done. There's been displacement, and now the elephant has stepped in the children's pool, the
158 00:30:46 --> 00:30:59 water has been displaced, the evidence is there, they're in the market and needed to take pick it higher. If we wanted to go even further, we can drop down
159 00:30:59 --> 00:31:07 into a four hour chart. Okay, so we have a four hour chart, everything's still the same as it was shown on the daily. In here, we have the last down close
160 00:31:07 --> 00:31:23 candle, that down close candle is seen here with an open at 9575. And I have 9578. So if we traded down to 9580, to 9578, in here, after running through it
161 00:31:23 --> 00:31:36 with this candle, we could be a buyer, that this candle here, the low comes in at exactly 9578. We could use that as our entry point, bullish order block, stop
162 00:31:36 --> 00:31:44 below here. And that could be your position entry. That could be your short term entry. It could be your swing trade entry. It could be just a simple day trade
163 00:31:44 --> 00:31:54 as well. But looking at this price action here, you can see clearly the equal highs here. And then we already noted over here, this would be the next drop in
164 00:31:54 --> 00:32:06 liquidity. So any entries that you take in here? From below this low here, what would that be? Obviously we have the benefit of hindsight. But again, the
165 00:32:06 --> 00:32:15 narrative is we're looking for those weekly and monthly equal highs to be taken out because we're inside of a bullish season tendency for Dollar Index, to
166 00:32:15 --> 00:32:26 anytime price trades below the lows. What is that? It's a turtle soup long. Okay, it's external range liquidity through running the stops here. If it runs
167 00:32:26 --> 00:32:34 below there, we expect to see acceleration to the upside. For that show it? Yes, there's a signature right there. So now we know we're on the right side of the
168 00:32:34 --> 00:32:43 marketplace, and we're following smart money. And then we have another retracement back down into an area of liquidity. So the random liquidity in
169 00:32:43 --> 00:32:53 particular, to give a little bit more, buy more acceleration on the upside. Now we're in this area, look what we've done. All of this is that daily up close
170 00:32:53 --> 00:33:02 candle where they sold short on the left side of the curve before we reversed it here. So now they're mitigating all that. That's why they held it in here.
171 00:33:02 --> 00:33:10 Mitigation, mitigation mitigation. They're covering the shorts and adding more Long's but they're doing it in small portions because they don't want to tip it
172 00:33:10 --> 00:33:24 off. Expansion the upside, re accumulation re accumulation after running equal lows. No think if you're gonna run below the colos like I do here in an area of
173 00:33:24 --> 00:33:36 mitigation. Well to that daily chart, what should we see after this stop run? Well, nice stops are here. Acceleration to the upside, small acceleration or
174 00:33:36 --> 00:33:49 energy should be energy behind that move. And you see that here, okay, runs equal highs reaches for liquidity. Ultimately sweeping above the short term,
175 00:33:50 --> 00:34:01 equal highs mentioned on Twitter. So we have many examples here, but we're going to be getting further row drop down into an hourly chart. Okay, so we're looking
176 00:34:01 --> 00:34:13 at the hourly chart, don't end date dividers in here. And every time you see the double line that's a Sunday to the next area is Mondays. Tuesdays Wednesdays
177 00:34:13 --> 00:34:27 Thursdays and Fridays trading. They return back to the quarterback and here on Monday and then we had a Wednesday stop run below here. So we're focusing on
178 00:34:27 --> 00:34:36 what if we're buying we want to be a buyer on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday we have a run on stops from Tuesday's trading on that week. That is
179 00:34:36 --> 00:34:46 not a market structure break to the downside. Retail is gonna see that as resistance that further sells the idea to me with the market efficiency paradigm
180 00:34:46 --> 00:34:54 that all we did was run the sell stops on trailed stops there may be someone that bought low here or bought in here. Their stop loss gonna be trailed to
181 00:34:54 --> 00:35:06 here. They wick through that run their stops and then we see the energetic run to the up So we have the low that week form on Monday here, consolidation on
182 00:35:06 --> 00:35:20 Tuesday and then Wednesday expansion. And then we have a Thursday, consolidation week with equal lows formed, rolled into the following week. Look what we do we
183 00:35:20 --> 00:35:30 drop back down into equal lows. And on a Monday, so we pick up that same narrative Bible Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. Monday we by Tuesday, we have a
184 00:35:30 --> 00:35:37 retracement back in the waterblock. Running stops again, we don't see that as a break in market structure. We don't see that as a bear flag. We don't see it as
185 00:35:38 --> 00:35:39 a bearish market
186 00:35:40 --> 00:35:54 coil where it should break down we see that as buying sell stops expansion to the upside. Next week, we have Monday's low here rated on Tuesday. Once we see
187 00:35:54 --> 00:36:02 that trade below that do we see as a market structure break? No we see that as buying us sell stops and sell stocks have been taken. We expand on the upside
188 00:36:02 --> 00:36:24 and that's what we see here. So we add all that information from the Twitter to mail a bit there it is. Price Action Model number six. I will talk with you
189 00:36:24 --> 00:36:33 again in price action model number seven, which will be just the opposite shown here and another pair. Until next time, I wish good luck and good trading