ICT Charter PAM 5 - Supplementary Lesson
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-01-17 15:39
Outline
ICT Charter Price Action Model 5 - Supplementary Lesson
00:04 - Using fair value gaps for day trading with a weekly range expansion bias.
- ICT provides a preview of the D trading model, focusing on the pair USD/CAD, and explains the importance of supporting evidence to confirm market movements.
- ICT offers a simple recipe for trading, using the pairs they are focusing on for the week ending June 28, 2019, and encourages members to flesh out each individual thing using the content taught in the core mentorship material.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding fair value gaps and using them to identify high-probability trading setups.
- ICT's expertise lies in day trading and short-term trading within the weekly range, but he acknowledges that other traders may have different timeframes and strategies.
05:42 - Analyzing currency market using technical analysis.
- Analyst identifies bearish bias for dollar vs. Canadian dollar, expecting downside momentum.
- ICT identifies a potential target of 130 68 based on the market's bearish bias and previous daily range expansion.
- Fair value gaps in the lower 50% of the previous day's range are expected to form during a kill zone, indicating a sell signal.
10:53 - Using fair value gaps for entry points in price action trading.
- The speaker discusses using the institutional order flow entry drill for entry during a fair value gap in a kill zone, specifically highlighting the low end entry technique for selling short or buying the highest point of the gap.
- The speaker emphasizes that there is no shortage of setups and opportunities using this approach, and that back testing has shown that multiple pairs can be used with this technique.
- Trader discusses using model five to identify potential daily and weekly price expansions, with a focus on taking profits at 40-50 pips per set up.
16:07 - Using a trading model for 40 pip runs.
- ICT identifies high probability days for trading based on historical price action.
- ICT removes labels from charts to avoid confusion, focusing on confluence of intraday standard deviations instead.
- ICT uses daily dividers to identify fair value gaps, order blocks, and breakers, demonstrating precision of model number five.
20:39 - Calibrating price levels using low hanging fruit technique.
- ICT identifies 130.70 as the closest institutional level to the daily low of 130.67, with potential for liquidity below.
- Trader emphasizes importance of calibration techniques for consistent trading results.
25:07 - Technical analysis and market predictions.
- ICT identifies key levels for confluence using flout measurements and standard deviations.
- ICT: 130 50-59 is the range for pips allowed, with confidence on Friday's low (130 15).
- Standard deviations from Thursday's low (130 70) and daily low (130 107) are expected to converge, with a potential tag at 130 67.
30:27 - Trading based on market analysis.
- ICT identifies a fair value gap in the market, with a potential trade opportunity on Wednesday.
- Price action repeats in a measurable and predictable manner, with algorithmic liquidity driving the market.
- The speaker identifies a bearish order block and a five-minute fair value gap on a chart, highlighting potential entry and exit points for a trade.
- The speaker discusses multiple fair value gaps and distribution on a five-minute chart, showing how to identify and trade these patterns.
36:11 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.
- ICT highlights precise price movements in a low-end example, impressing but confusing uninitiated.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of core content and gradual learning, rather than rushing to advanced topics.
- ICT encourages members to focus on finding profitability in month one, rather than demanding advanced content.
41:22 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- ICT teaches a higher order of analysis that is applicable to various markets, including forex, stocks, and bonds.
- ICT provides monthly lessons on a model that has already been revealed, with amplifications of how ICT uses these models in their analysis.
- ICT explains why they were looking for a lowly rated currency to go lower, and how they will enter and manage trades based on this analysis.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of using low hanging fruit entry techniques and building allowance for trades to have a little bit of drawdown, while refining over time.
- ICT says he has a high degree of probability that the market will reach 130.70 and then sweep 10 pips below that level.
- ICT is not running a signal service and will only provide general market analysis and examples, not specific trade recommendations.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:04 --> 00:00:18 | ICT: Good looks good evening. Welcome back. So we're taking a look at or another look at, if you will, of model number five. And it's a D trading model. And I'll |
| 2 | 00:00:18 --> 00:00:30 | kind of like want to briefly go through, kind of give you like a preview of what we'll be doing, but not as detailed, obviously, in 2020, when we go through the |
| 3 | 00:00:30 --> 00:00:43 | mouse again, so the initial lesson, then we go back in again, do another amplified perspective, and I'll use an example. And then in 2020, starting in |
| 4 | 00:00:43 --> 00:00:52 | January, we'll do model one, and a detailed trading plan. So how you actually go through the process, okay, so I kind of like want to go through some bullet |
| 5 | 00:00:52 --> 00:01:05 | point. perspectives on how you can kind of like do it now with what you have. And every model that's going forward, you know, for the new members, obviously, |
| 6 | 00:01:05 --> 00:01:21 | the 2016 2017 group, they have already received all 12 models. But we looked for the, the inception of a move, okay. And we want to know where it's going. Some |
| 7 | 00:01:21 --> 00:01:32 | of the questions that you probably have in your mind, right now, you've learned a great deal with me through the mentorship. But everything feels disjointed. |
| 8 | 00:01:33 --> 00:01:45 | You can see things when I show you examples, or you see things, you know, frag mentally, when your own and your own study, but you just don't know where to |
| 9 | 00:01:45 --> 00:01:54 | place those pieces together. And I kinda like want to give you a real simple little recipe, okay. And without all the details, you can do all the work |
| 10 | 00:01:54 --> 00:02:06 | yourself, and flesh out each individual thing because of the content that was taught to you in the core mentorship material. So when we look at the pairs, |
| 11 | 00:02:07 --> 00:02:17 | that we're considering trading, I'm using this pair here, because it's just so happens to be the only pair we were really focusing on for this particular week, |
| 12 | 00:02:17 --> 00:02:34 | week ending June 28 2019. So we felt, or at least through my analysis, and my commentary, that we felt the dollar CAD was going to go lower. Now, it's not |
| 13 | 00:02:34 --> 00:02:45 | enough to know, or believe that the markets gonna go lower, we have to have some supporting evidence to support the, the idea or the premise, if you will, that |
| 14 | 00:02:45 --> 00:02:54 | the market will one move in your direction. But specifically, to what level? What is it going for? What's What's the draw on liquidity? So we have to have |
| 15 | 00:02:54 --> 00:03:05 | number one, a point of origin. Okay, so what are we going to be using for our criteria, we've been spending a great deal of time in recent weeks, and last |
| 16 | 00:03:05 --> 00:03:15 | couple months with fair value gaps. Because much like order blocks, once you understand some central tenants about the fair value gap, they're fairly easy |
| 17 | 00:03:15 --> 00:03:24 | and easy to spot in price. So and they're not really ambiguous, they're very clear, they're not something that you have to look at and try to decipher, is |
| 18 | 00:03:24 --> 00:03:36 | this a fair value gap or is is not a fair of a gap? It's simply if your anchor, okay, so our point of origin, okay, or the premise of the setups are going to be |
| 19 | 00:03:36 --> 00:03:46 | fair value gaps. And we're gonna incorporate that again with model number five. And we have to go into the market and determine our bias. And how do we do that, |
| 20 | 00:03:47 --> 00:03:56 | we have to consult the higher timeframe, charts, and we are here on the weekly chart. And we're anticipating a weekly range expansion. This is what makes our |
| 21 | 00:03:56 --> 00:04:08 | high probability setups, high probability. So this is the daily range that we just created this week. So today, when we had the market closed, we closed here, |
| 22 | 00:04:08 --> 00:04:22 | but the weekly range was down. So my forte as a trader, that makes me ICT is that I work within this framework every single week. This single candle is the |
| 23 | 00:04:22 --> 00:04:35 | only thing that I'm honestly trying to forecast in my own analysis with the highest degree of probability and accuracy. Obviously, you've heard me talk in |
| 24 | 00:04:36 --> 00:04:48 | instances where I felt that the market can move longer term, one way or the other. But I don't trade that way. So my forte, my expertise, if you will, is |
| 25 | 00:04:48 --> 00:04:59 | day trading and very short term trading, the weekly range. I believe that it suits me best. But it's not to say that it's the best for you. That's the reason |
| 26 | 00:04:59 --> 00:05:07 | why it's Aren't you all of the components of price action trading so that way you could be a position trader, all the way down to a scalper, if you wanted to |
| 27 | 00:05:07 --> 00:05:21 | be. Obviously, the highest order of student would be to be able to use all of those things, whenever it's valid to do so. And none of you are close to doing |
| 28 | 00:05:21 --> 00:05:31 | that. Okay, just let me know that if you don't feel that you're up to snuff, if you will, or up to par, to do something like that, that what's realistic |
| 29 | 00:05:31 --> 00:05:40 | thinking? Because you shouldn't be expected to do that. You're gonna take decades to do that. Okay, so and you may never even reach it. It's not required, |
| 30 | 00:05:40 --> 00:05:54 | it's not needed to be profitable. So we determine our bias is bearish. Now, how did I come up with the bias for dollar cat? Why did I focus on dollar CAD, this |
| 31 | 00:05:54 --> 00:06:06 | past week over Euro and cable? Well, the higher timeframe weekly chart, the down close candle or the expansion on the downside, we're not trying to predict a |
| 32 | 00:06:06 --> 00:06:16 | close, we're just looking for an expansion in one direction over another. So we're incorporating power three on the weekly chart. So simply looking for an |
| 33 | 00:06:16 --> 00:06:27 | open, very modest upside, if at all. And majority of the range on the downside. So our power three is bearish for the weekly range. So we want to be shorting |
| 34 | 00:06:28 --> 00:06:41 | and that's what we're looking for. Why are we expecting the price of dollar CAD to go lower? While we're looking for the draw on liquidity? At this old low, the |
| 35 | 00:06:41 --> 00:06:50 | markets been heavy, we filled in a fair value gap back here. This city satisfies and balance vata inefficiency was filled in. And we had recently entered a |
| 36 | 00:06:50 --> 00:07:00 | bearish stance for the near term for dollar. Gold prices. I didn't mention in the last couple times, we had our sessions. But as I mentioned, that we need to |
| 37 | 00:07:00 --> 00:07:09 | be watching the gold market, because if it was to go higher, that would make it easy for the dollar to go lower in foreign currencies to have a higher |
| 38 | 00:07:10 --> 00:07:20 | probability to rally going higher. Well, this pair here begins with the dollar. So dollar CAD, when this is dropping, it's basically saying that the dollar is |
| 39 | 00:07:20 --> 00:07:33 | falling weaker to the Canadian dollar. Okay, all Canadian dollar is stronger, relatively speaking in terms of the dollar. So if we're bearish on dollar, this |
| 40 | 00:07:33 --> 00:07:44 | pair also should have very little opposition, or resistance, if you will, in terms of momentum, reaching for downside objectives. So when we use our pdra |
| 41 | 00:07:44 --> 00:07:53 | matrix, we're looking for discount arrays that the market would reach for, logically, there's nothing really in here to frame there's this down close |
| 42 | 00:07:53 --> 00:08:02 | candle here, we can't really use that as a bearish, down close representing a bullish order block, because we've already consumed all that here. So we can |
| 43 | 00:08:02 --> 00:08:13 | consider obviously the lowest down close, which we the rejection block, which did handsomely traded to or we can use the old low and in the Southside |
| 44 | 00:08:13 --> 00:08:23 | liquidity resting below that, which is exactly what I told you during the commentary the last two times we were talking about dollar CAD. So we have our |
| 45 | 00:08:23 --> 00:08:36 | draw and liquidity, we have the weekly range expansion. We think that the market is going to go lower based on things I just mentioned here. So we can drop into |
| 46 | 00:08:36 --> 00:08:56 | a daily chart and anticipate each daily range to expand downward reaching into that old daily low 130 68. It was actually 130 67 Seven, I believe, scroll back |
| 47 | 00:08:56 --> 00:09:09 | can see what it is. Yeah, 130 67 and seven pips. So essentially, that would be 130 68 on any broker that doesn't do PIP that's which is why I've rounded it to |
| 48 | 00:09:09 --> 00:09:19 | 130 68. Okay, so the next procedure that you would utilize, is you'd be stocking every day |
| 49 | 00:09:20 --> 00:09:30 | a fair value gap using the previous day's range. And I taught recently that the high probability fair value gaps are going to be in the lower 50% of the |
| 50 | 00:09:30 --> 00:09:42 | previous daily range when the markets bearish so fair value gaps that you would look to sell into go short. They would form generally in the lower half of the |
| 51 | 00:09:42 --> 00:09:52 | previous day's range. Now, if we were looking at a market that was bullish, obviously, the opposite will be said the high probability fair value gaps when |
| 52 | 00:09:52 --> 00:10:02 | it's bullish would appear or form the gap would exist if you will, in the previous day's range, upper 50% of the previous day's range. Okay, so that would |
| 53 | 00:10:02 --> 00:10:12 | make it I probability fair they get to go long in when all of the other factors, as we mentioned here for higher timeframe would indicate higher prices. But as |
| 54 | 00:10:12 --> 00:10:25 | it were, we were talking about the dollar CAD being bearish. And we were looking for this old low to be attacked. So the liquidity resting below that. So |
| 55 | 00:10:25 --> 00:10:40 | sellside liquidity was our objective, okay, or the terminus. So our analysis led to a directional bias, it led to a target at which we would anticipate price |
| 56 | 00:10:40 --> 00:10:54 | reaching to in every individual day, we would stock fair value gaps to go shorten, but they have to form during a kill zone. So it's the first return back |
| 57 | 00:10:54 --> 00:11:09 | to a fair value gap during a kill zone, London kill zone or New York kill zone, which is specific for this price action model. Using that, you're not limited to |
| 58 | 00:11:09 --> 00:11:19 | just trading the London and New York favorite as a framework for this model is such you can obviously trade the London close kill zone and you can also trade |
| 59 | 00:11:19 --> 00:11:31 | the Asian kills him. And if you feel inclined, you can trade the New York close kill zone. But generally New York kill zones. New York closed kills sounds |
| 60 | 00:11:31 --> 00:11:45 | rather, they're more typically predisposed to go for longer term position entries, like continuations into larger moves, like wanting close to. So when we |
| 61 | 00:11:45 --> 00:11:56 | have that first return to fair value gaps during a kill zone, what are we using for our entry? Well, I recently taught you the institutional order flow entry |
| 62 | 00:11:56 --> 00:12:07 | drill, where you were practicing, and you did four weeks of back testing. And he did four weeks forward testing. So you should have all that data now. And all |
| 63 | 00:12:07 --> 00:12:19 | that data collected, should have illustrated to you that there is a numerous amount of setups and a plethora of pips available, well, more than you probably |
| 64 | 00:12:19 --> 00:12:31 | thought. So there's not a shortage of setups, there's not a shortage of opportunities either. But you don't need to have every one of those pairs. I |
| 65 | 00:12:31 --> 00:12:39 | gave you a homework assignment, doing that back testing, to kind of like show you that once you know what you're looking for. You don't have to stick to one |
| 66 | 00:12:39 --> 00:12:49 | pair or two. In the beginning, you want to do that and you're learning. But if you want to have a basket approach where you're using a larger number of assets, |
| 67 | 00:12:49 --> 00:13:03 | it's fine and filter setups in. You've been proven by your own homework and your own work, doing back testing and for testing. That there is no there is no |
| 68 | 00:13:03 --> 00:13:14 | shortage on setups using the fair value gap. And the institutional order flow entry drill technique for entry, which is the low end entry, you're not looking |
| 69 | 00:13:14 --> 00:13:27 | for the the the entire gap to fill. You're not looking for consequent coachman either, you're using the lowest point of entry for selling short and a very fair |
| 70 | 00:13:27 --> 00:13:39 | value gap, or buying the highest point of the gap when it's a bullish fair value. Once we have the setup in mind, and we see it in the chart, we know where |
| 71 | 00:13:39 --> 00:13:54 | the price is most likely to expand on the daily and on the weekly. Using model five, we can see that confluence of intraday standard deviations on flout on |
| 72 | 00:13:54 --> 00:14:09 | Central Bank dealers range and on the Asian range. So it gives us targets if you will, every single day. But this model specifically aims for 40 to 50 pips per |
| 73 | 00:14:09 --> 00:14:27 | set up. So that's the premise or the the focus, if you will, of this particular model. You can graduate into larger one shot one kill scenarios by leaving a |
| 74 | 00:14:27 --> 00:14:36 | portion of the trade on now, right away quickly. Some would say well, if you're taking a large portion of the trade off, you know and you believe that it's |
| 75 | 00:14:36 --> 00:14:48 | going to go with a one shot one kill. Why not? Just let it go and don't take profits at 40 or 50 pips and you can do that this could be the stepping stone to |
| 76 | 00:14:48 --> 00:15:03 | you getting to or arriving at these larger weekly range expansions that go beyond 50 pips okay so or it can be just utilized for As the modular approach to |
| 77 | 00:15:03 --> 00:15:14 | getting your 50 to 75 pips like I do a week, I don't always get the 75 Pip high end in one setup, sometimes I have to do it in two trades, or I mean require |
| 78 | 00:15:14 --> 00:15:26 | four, maybe I've taken a loss and or I missed move and exited the position before it really was a loss or a gain, it was a scratch and have to go back in |
| 79 | 00:15:26 --> 00:15:43 | and do another transaction to get my goal for the week. So don't think that you have to do the model as it is here. And it's limited to that. The approach to me |
| 80 | 00:15:43 --> 00:15:54 | setting down with these specific 12 models was to lay the foundations that when you understand them all and incorporate them together, you will have a complete |
| 81 | 00:15:54 --> 00:16:05 | understanding of price action and you can work within any model and overlap with them. Okay, and gives you a depth of understanding that is unsurpassed in the |
| 82 | 00:16:05 --> 00:16:16 | trading community. So let's go over to a 15 minute timeframe. And this shaded area here this is this representing simply a 40 pips, this is our low end |
| 83 | 00:16:16 --> 00:16:27 | objective for this model. And there's nothing more to it than that. I'm just going to show you the day dividers here. And this is Friday's trading Thursday, |
| 84 | 00:16:28 --> 00:16:44 | Wednesday, Tuesday, and Monday. If we were to take this range and displace it over significant highs, you can see that there was simply no real resistance to |
| 85 | 00:16:44 --> 00:16:58 | seeing price get to a 40 Pip run on Thursday. Whether you use their high or this high, it simply gave you obviously an easy 40 pips. Now I'll go into the details |
| 86 | 00:16:58 --> 00:17:08 | in a moment because some of you are going oh, it's completely all hindsight. We have a 40 Pip run here from this high. And when little bit further than that |
| 87 | 00:17:08 --> 00:17:23 | certainly 50 pips was offered on that day. And in here, you see 40 pips was a no brainer there as well. And then we have a late day, New York setup, were |
| 88 | 00:17:23 --> 00:17:37 | offered. Again, our 40 pips. So Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday, high probability days really nice even though this model is not limited to Tuesday, |
| 89 | 00:17:37 --> 00:17:50 | Wednesday, Thursday, trading, it's any day trading. You can filter it by limiting it to to Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday days. Okay, so highest |
| 90 | 00:17:50 --> 00:18:00 | probability, in my opinion, are Tuesday and Wednesday. So I like to use those days to do my most of my hunting, doesn't mean I'm going to get it doesn't mean |
| 91 | 00:18:00 --> 00:18:08 | I'm going to capture it doesn't mean it's going to set up, it may require me going into Thursday to get my haul for the week. But looking at price action |
| 92 | 00:18:08 --> 00:18:17 | like this, even though we have a 40 pip range, low in objective for this model, looking at the Daily dividers like this right away, you know enough, your eyes |
| 93 | 00:18:17 --> 00:18:26 | are seeing power three, you're probably seeing the fair value gaps, which we're going to highlight, you're probably seeing the order blocks, you're probably |
| 94 | 00:18:26 --> 00:18:34 | seeing the breakers. That's all part for testimony to your understanding and your learning. |
| 95 | 00:18:36 --> 00:18:44 | What I want you to focus on in this teaching here is not only is it a review with greater detail than we show in the weekly reviews that will be shown |
| 96 | 00:18:44 --> 00:18:55 | tomorrow at 4pm. On the forum, it's also to show you the level of precision with what you were introduced to with using model number five. Okay, so I'm gonna |
| 97 | 00:18:55 --> 00:19:04 | take this, remove the daily dividers off and put some lipstick on this chart a little bit. And we're only gonna focus on flout. Okay, I'm going to plot the |
| 98 | 00:19:04 --> 00:19:15 | flower only each day. And we're going to look at what we arrive at using the criteria just outlined for this model in this particular teaching. Okay, so |
| 99 | 00:19:15 --> 00:19:25 | everything is been added. Now, right away, you're going to be confused, you're gonna have doubts and concerns about what these lines are here. The only thing |
| 100 | 00:19:25 --> 00:19:35 | I've done is removed the labels. Okay, I don't want you focusing on the labels, because it's caused a great deal of confusion for folks, and I'm answering a lot |
| 101 | 00:19:35 --> 00:19:46 | of emails that can be just simply avoided by talking in this lesson here. It's not imperative that you have a label, because I don't really particularly have |
| 102 | 00:19:46 --> 00:19:57 | labels. When I look at my charts. I just look for the confluence of the intraday standard deviations when they line up, and I'll outline a few here. You probably |
| 103 | 00:19:57 --> 00:20:05 | always see him at the bottom of the chart here. That's all I'm looking for. There's no real science to like a standard deviation to has the Metro with |
| 104 | 00:20:05 --> 00:20:14 | standard DC standard deviation for none of that's required. I get a lot of questions that are like that. Is there something that one standard deviation has |
| 105 | 00:20:14 --> 00:20:22 | to match up with another day standard deviation by a specific range or expansion that doesn't need to work like that you're really complicating it over |
| 106 | 00:20:22 --> 00:20:34 | complication, if you start doing things like that. So to avoid the confusion, the only thing I've done was removed the labels on the lines here, otherwise, |
| 107 | 00:20:34 --> 00:20:45 | they would show you that the standard deviation, one standard deviation, tos and so on. That was taught to you in in initial lesson of model five. So the |
| 108 | 00:20:45 --> 00:20:58 | Friday's trading here, you can clearly see we traded down below that 130 70 level which has now been calibrated to the nearest 10 level. Remember, the daily |
| 109 | 00:20:58 --> 00:21:19 | low and we are referring to over here on February 1 2019. That low is 130 67 and seven pipettes. We're coming down to that level. So the low hanging fruit |
| 110 | 00:21:19 --> 00:21:32 | application of targeting and calibrating your levels is what institutional level and what zero level, or what five level is the closest to that 167. Seven |
| 111 | 00:21:32 --> 00:21:49 | pipettes. 168 is the even round number but not in the sense that it's a zero level, it's rounded to the nearest full Pip. The nearest 10 level coming down, I |
| 112 | 00:21:49 --> 00:22:01 | remember this week's range expansion was down. So we started on Monday, this level would be calibrated to 130 70. Because 70 is the nearest 410 level before |
| 113 | 00:22:01 --> 00:22:10 | you get to 68 or 67, and seven pipettes, okay, if you didn't catch her either said rewind the video and listen to it. Again, it's very simple. You can use |
| 114 | 00:22:11 --> 00:22:23 | 130 80 as your next institutional level on the downside, and that's fine as well. There's nothing wrong with that. But we're targeting the liquidity below |
| 115 | 00:22:23 --> 00:22:36 | that low. Which is important to note because that this template run below 130 70. The low on this particular day here on Friday, came in at 130 59. Even |
| 116 | 00:22:37 --> 00:22:50 | so as 11 pips run below 137, you see to see how calibrating our levels using the low hanging fruit rounding of our levels. In other words, we're not we're not |
| 117 | 00:22:50 --> 00:23:02 | working with zones. Okay, we're working with specific price levels. Because if we don't have those specific price levels in mind, we can't do standard |
| 118 | 00:23:02 --> 00:23:13 | deviations and overlays. And you can't do projections with any measure of continuity. If we're going to talk about supply and demand zones, like those |
| 119 | 00:23:13 --> 00:23:23 | individuals that trade like that, they're really guessing as to what they're doing. And that's why they lack consistency, even though the best quote unquote |
| 120 | 00:23:23 --> 00:23:31 | supply and demand traders out there, they're not going to show the level of consistency that I'm able to show because of the calibration techniques that |
| 121 | 00:23:31 --> 00:23:45 | I've taught you. So again, if we have an objective, which is an old low here in this example, on that February low, if it's daily low figure is 130 67. Seven |
| 122 | 00:23:45 --> 00:23:58 | pipettes on another broker that doesn't use PIP that it would be 130 68. So the nearest 10 level for five level without rounding lower than the actual low, |
| 123 | 00:23:59 --> 00:24:09 | because we're coming remember expanding down to it, we want to get to a price level that is high probability of reaching, I don't care. And I don't want to |
| 124 | 00:24:09 --> 00:24:20 | try to sell the idea that I'm projecting the ones already 59 level zero pets, that's not necessary. Okay. We're trying to get as close as we can, and also |
| 125 | 00:24:20 --> 00:24:31 | allow for the spread to still give us the ability to get out of the trades. So, several factors I want you to take a look at in here, we had the 131 big figure |
| 126 | 00:24:31 --> 00:24:43 | ahead of reaching that 130 70 level which is calibrated to pips above which would otherwise be seen in other brokerage demo accounts or live account feeds |
| 127 | 00:24:43 --> 00:24:59 | at 130 68. So the protocol is if we trade through a big figure, it's not just a simple 1020 30 it could expand 40 pips down while 130 59 is essentially what |
| 128 | 00:24:59 --> 00:25:13 | round number 130 60 Right. So we had a sweep of liquidity 41 pips. You see that? He reached below but no more specifically and precisely, it reached for that |
| 129 | 00:25:13 --> 00:25:24 | February low that we identified the last few times we talked in weekly commentary. And that's this sweep here. Now, the range parameter here, all this |
| 130 | 00:25:24 --> 00:25:35 | is flout, okay? All I'm doing is identifying the range high and the range low using the bodies, not the wicks, okay. Remember, model five tells you to use you |
| 131 | 00:25:35 --> 00:25:45 | want to do calibration on your standard deviations on both the wicks and the bodies. And you want to look for confluences. So you want to know those levels. |
| 132 | 00:25:45 --> 00:25:56 | Ideally, on your charts, you're going to have one chart that has the flout Central Bank, dealers range and Asian range plotted on Wix and in one on the |
| 133 | 00:25:56 --> 00:26:06 | bodies. And you this is the part that takes time, and you have to put some thought process into it and think which levels are calibrated. So there's a lot |
| 134 | 00:26:06 --> 00:26:18 | of tight confluences. And what I mean by that we have 130 65, down here, used on was this Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday's trading. So when our Tuesdays |
| 135 | 00:26:18 --> 00:26:28 | flout measurements and standard deviations, we have a standard deviation here, lines up perfectly with the low. The other standard deviation projections down |
| 136 | 00:26:28 --> 00:26:39 | here, okay, these are Sandy Hook, and a half's not just for standard deviation, I have the half levels in here, even though they're not labeled. So nowhere to |
| 137 | 00:26:39 --> 00:26:50 | be like standard deviation one then Sandy reached 1.5, then standard deviation to understand the reason 2.5 respectively. But again, we don't need the labels, |
| 138 | 00:26:50 --> 00:27:01 | all we're doing is looking for the actual line each day to see if there's any consequences in the next few days or during the week. So we have 130 65 here, |
| 139 | 00:27:02 --> 00:27:11 | project that out in time, but we're very close within five pips again, that's the filter, it's going to be within five pips. If we get a confidence within |
| 140 | 00:27:11 --> 00:27:21 | five pips or even less than that, it's going to be a level of high sensitivity. So we have one here. And we have this level here that I don't have actually |
| 141 | 00:27:21 --> 00:27:22 | highlighted. So let me do that now. |
| 142 | 00:27:32 --> 00:27:48 | Okay, so we have 130 54, and six pinpad. So basically 130 55 If you even if you wanted to say was 130 50 for five pips above that, would still be 130 59. So |
| 143 | 00:27:48 --> 00:27:57 | it's no matter how you slice it, it's by pips, variants that you are allowed to have. And then we have 130 59 here on this level, and project that out. And then |
| 144 | 00:27:57 --> 00:28:11 | we have this level here on Fridays flout very close to certainly within five pips of deviation. So confidence is very apparent there. And the low on this day |
| 145 | 00:28:11 --> 00:28:31 | is actually 130 15 I even make it pop up. Here you go. So this is actually showing you one pip that shouldn't be there. So there you go. So you have |
| 146 | 00:28:31 --> 00:28:47 | confluence of Thursday's standard deviations on flout, and the daily low, and 10 pips below 130 70 Which would be basically 130 60. So it was one pip more than |
| 147 | 00:28:47 --> 00:28:58 | you would have with all of your projection studies. We're expecting 130 70 to be tagged at 130 67. Seven was the old February low on this feed, we calibrate our |
| 148 | 00:28:58 --> 00:29:09 | level two nears 10 Or five level for institutional level. Nonetheless, no matter how you slice it, it's there if you want to use the 80 level, okay, a 20 Pip run |
| 149 | 00:29:09 --> 00:29:20 | below that will take you to 130 60 so it only went 21 points or pips below it, it's all there. It's all algorithmically repeating itself. It's it depends on |
| 150 | 00:29:20 --> 00:29:28 | what filter you're going to use. Now obviously, the more filters you have, the more precise you're gonna get because you're gonna even view standard deviations |
| 151 | 00:29:28 --> 00:29:41 | and swing projections with the stop runs with 1020 and 30. Unless you entered the the big figure in mid figure thresholds. So we have price sweeping below |
| 152 | 00:29:41 --> 00:29:52 | 131. Now we had to add additional 40 pips. Well, that's wonderful because it also takes us below that 130 70 level or 130 67. Seven, handsomely. So it builds |
| 153 | 00:29:52 --> 00:30:03 | a lot of probability, if you will, that the market will probably on Friday, reach this object Do that old daily low on February that we outlined last few |
| 154 | 00:30:03 --> 00:30:14 | times in our commentary. So with that said, Okay, you can also see the standard deviation here on Thursday called the very low of the day. And on Wednesday, |
| 155 | 00:30:14 --> 00:30:28 | only off by one, one is the low is the line I have here is 130 107 and the low with one PIPA in the lowest it's only one off on one, one, Pip. So again, |
| 156 | 00:30:28 --> 00:30:39 | beautiful, beautiful, beautiful. So let's take a look at the individual days here. One Tuesday, we had equal highs, price running above that late in the day. |
| 157 | 00:30:39 --> 00:30:49 | So on Tuesday's high, after running equal highs, we have price expand on the downside, leaving fair value gap in here. Price runs up during the Asian |
| 158 | 00:30:50 --> 00:30:58 | session. Again, this is one of those times where you can additionally add Asian session not just limited to New York and London. And again, you can use London |
| 159 | 00:30:58 --> 00:31:09 | close as well. But here's an Asian session setup. So don't Asian range or Asian session or kill zone fare of a gap to a bearish order block. Trades right there. |
| 160 | 00:31:09 --> 00:31:22 | 40 pips offered? Absolutely. What's it gonna run for previous day's low, there's liquidity resting below that. The low on that day comes in at 3151 and a half. |
| 161 | 00:31:27 --> 00:31:40 | 131 41 So 10 pips below the previous day's low, you see how algorithmically the price always moves in a reasonable and unexpected manner. It's not random. It's |
| 162 | 00:31:40 --> 00:31:53 | not ambiguous. It's running for liquidity. But in a scale that is measurable, it repeats. And it's something that you can anticipate. The market creates a fair |
| 163 | 00:31:53 --> 00:32:05 | value gap in here, there's one also up in here, but it's inside this swing, so it's not likely or needed to get up in there. This is more pronounced. And if |
| 164 | 00:32:05 --> 00:32:18 | you look at the previous day's range, right here, if you measure that, let's do that. So you can see here is the low to high. So here's a 50% level, anything |
| 165 | 00:32:18 --> 00:32:30 | below that level down a fair value gap for this day on Wednesday, you can take a trade so yes, there's a limit of fair value gap here. There's one in here Yes. |
| 166 | 00:32:30 --> 00:32:41 | But in the lower half, this is existing as well. This is much more imbalanced, quickly distribution comes in the marketplace. Price comes back up fills in the |
| 167 | 00:32:41 --> 00:33:05 | fair value gap. Here's your cell during the New York Open Session New York setup easy 50 Pip run we have a low of 3141 the low comes in at 31 six so over 30 pips |
| 168 | 00:33:06 --> 00:33:20 | for this run here I'm sorry from the low down to a 30 Pip run on liquidity below the low formed in the London Open or the london session if you will. And we have |
| 169 | 00:33:20 --> 00:33:30 | a bearish order block and on the lower timeframe we'll see fair value gap. So a very short block and five minute fair value gap which again we'll look at when |
| 170 | 00:33:30 --> 00:33:42 | we drop down the five minute price comes back up hits that after running above equal highs power three distribution comes right back up again five minute |
| 171 | 00:33:43 --> 00:33:51 | Fairbury get you'll see that equal highs as well distribution multiple fair value gaps in here. Okay, so I'm going to drop into a five minute chart so we |
| 172 | 00:33:51 --> 00:33:53 | can look at the 27th |
| 173 | 00:34:06 --> 00:34:16 | Okay, so here's the 27th here's a fear value gap on a five minute chart I mentioned and here's that Heidi would like to see it breach or touched and still |
| 174 | 00:34:16 --> 00:34:26 | get here and the time of day that it occurs that's New York open so earlier entry then we create another fair value got right in here price comes up it |
| 175 | 00:34:26 --> 00:34:39 | completely fills it goes a little bit into the bearish order block all you need is this candles high as your entry rate in here at 131 29. The high on this |
| 176 | 00:34:39 --> 00:34:50 | candle comes in at 3130 Yeah 30 Almost 32 So only three pips drawdown if you're using that entry point and your stop will be above here. So there's nothing |
| 177 | 00:34:50 --> 00:35:00 | wrong with three pips drawdown and the price comes down, creates another fair value got comes up hits it. There's your entry again. The time of day For this |
| 178 | 00:35:00 --> 00:35:14 | one is London close. So you can use one encloses continuation aiming for what is residing below us 131 big figure price distribution hits that fair value gap |
| 179 | 00:35:14 --> 00:35:24 | again, there's another entry point at which you can enter and use a stop above here. Price rolls over in the overnight session into Asia a little bit of |
| 180 | 00:35:24 --> 00:35:25 | retracement |
| 181 | 00:35:30 --> 00:35:45 | creates a high here, small fair value gap. Price comes back up, we move into Friday. The London session fair value gap is closed, sell off small itty bitty |
| 182 | 00:35:45 --> 00:35:57 | tiny little imbalance right there. It goes into that just a little bit deeper. sells off. And then we have our spike down into our first run below 130 70 Price |
| 183 | 00:35:57 --> 00:36:08 | rallies up one more time taking equal highs. Heavy distribution comes in again sweeping 10 pips below and finding our confluence of standard deviations on |
| 184 | 00:36:08 --> 00:36:22 | previous days inside of the weekly range. And below our terminus, which was 137 D calibrated off that February low. Beautiful, beautiful, beautiful symmetry in |
| 185 | 00:36:22 --> 00:36:34 | mum delivery of price, perfectly calibrated perfectly calculated, nothing in this is ambiguous, nothing is cherry picked. There's nothing in here that you |
| 186 | 00:36:34 --> 00:36:44 | can't take away and use in other examples in the future, because these are the signatures that I've taught you right out of model five content. And all the |
| 187 | 00:36:44 --> 00:36:56 | other core content blended together. So there's a high degree of precision here. We talked about this specific low being rated in previous commentaries, that was |
| 188 | 00:36:56 --> 00:37:06 | the target. That was the focus for the week, actually. And here it is delivered. So how many opportunities is there shown in this example, just from 27th alone, |
| 189 | 00:37:06 --> 00:37:15 | there's so many entry points you could have gotten in that previous day in here. Even fair value got, I didn't mention that when I told you I was gonna see it |
| 190 | 00:37:15 --> 00:37:22 | show to you on a five minute chart, here's a fair value get right there. And it goes a little bit beyond that into the bearish order block. But that's enough to |
| 191 | 00:37:22 --> 00:37:39 | fill your spot will be above here. And pricing has a heavy measured distribution on the 27th. You can't look at this, and not be impressed with how simplistic |
| 192 | 00:37:39 --> 00:37:53 | price moves. But it is highly technical to the cipher. It's there every time. But it's basically evading the unwanted. So the uninitiated folks, they're |
| 193 | 00:37:53 --> 00:38:04 | outside our mentorship, they have no idea they have no capacity to understand what you're seeing here. And this is a low end. This is low end of what's being |
| 194 | 00:38:04 --> 00:38:16 | taught in years to come in this mentorship. There's so many things that are much more precise than this, that you'll learn. But you have to take these examples |
| 195 | 00:38:16 --> 00:38:25 | and use them as foundational understanding, and then you build on that as I introduce more things, it will become clear to you. My goal was not to take you |
| 196 | 00:38:25 --> 00:38:37 | into a trader of my caliber in in one year or two years or three years. This is a club, it's a membership. So it allows me to the freedom to talk to you folks |
| 197 | 00:38:37 --> 00:38:49 | about the things I don't generally talk about with anyone. So it's going to take time for you to learn all the higher order, but you don't need it. Obviously, |
| 198 | 00:38:49 --> 00:38:57 | I've shown you enough to find setups. So don't don't gripe, okay, if your personalities lose, or you're holding back, I've not hold I've not held back |
| 199 | 00:38:57 --> 00:39:07 | anything. I'm continuously teaching. I'm continuously releasing new stuff. But it has to be done so in a graduated manner, because I've killed people in the |
| 200 | 00:39:07 --> 00:39:18 | past with free tutorials where it's been overload. And these people were still sorting through free level tutorials. Because it's a lot of content. So just |
| 201 | 00:39:18 --> 00:39:28 | know that you're here. And it's all kinds of learning ahead. But don't think that you're limited by not knowing the advanced advanced advanced stuff yet. |
| 202 | 00:39:29 --> 00:39:39 | There's so many of you in here that sending emails and whether you want to think it's respectful or not disrespectful, or it's just an innocent request or a |
| 203 | 00:39:39 --> 00:39:51 | comment or an opinion. It's very offensive to me. When I hear folks that tell me, you know, can you start teaching the really advanced stuff now? I know by |
| 204 | 00:39:51 --> 00:40:03 | experience, it just makes my job harder, teaching it when you haven't been familiarized with the core content. And then gradually moving into look, you |
| 205 | 00:40:03 --> 00:40:10 | could have stopped honestly, you could have stopped at month one content and found profitability with that. Because if that's all you're looking for, you |
| 206 | 00:40:10 --> 00:40:17 | have no excuse to be telling me, Hey, give me advanced stuff now, because I can't find profitability because if you can't find profitability in month one, |
| 207 | 00:40:18 --> 00:40:27 | you're not a trader, in essence to I mean period and the story, you must pack it up, because I gave you everything that you would need to find profits, just in |
| 208 | 00:40:27 --> 00:40:36 | month one, and I did that month one. With that in mind. So that way, I can remove all the excuses for the the the average Jews and the average jeans that |
| 209 | 00:40:36 --> 00:40:47 | come in here that have character flaws within themselves that are going to be determined to them finding success in this. I packed a beautiful, beautiful, |
| 210 | 00:40:47 --> 00:40:56 | here's what you do exactly, to find setups that repeat over and over and over again with the first month. So don't think that you need to know everything |
| 211 | 00:40:56 --> 00:41:04 | you're going to learn by being in this membership. That's the high end the high order stuff, you don't need that stuff. I'm going to teach it but you don't need |
| 212 | 00:41:04 --> 00:41:13 | it. Now define profitability. If you think that you're you're doing No, no different than what the retail class does, when they jump from one system to the |
| 213 | 00:41:13 --> 00:41:13 | next. |
| 214 | 00:41:15 --> 00:41:25 | All the things I'm going to be teaching, you are just refinements that bring greater precision, and less trading. You're asking, give me more higher order |
| 215 | 00:41:25 --> 00:41:38 | stuff. So I can find more trades. When it's the opposite. You find less trades that are higher quality, and more refined in their framework. That's all that it |
| 216 | 00:41:38 --> 00:41:50 | is. So you have once you've gone through and you recharter level, you have everything in your repertoire. To be a profitable, consistently long term career |
| 217 | 00:41:50 --> 00:41:59 | trader, you have it all you have money management you have, how to find setups, where to know where the markets going, how to add positions, how to mitigate |
| 218 | 00:41:59 --> 00:42:09 | losses, how to forecast high probability setups, months in advance years and advanced with the seasonal tendencies, we've taught so many things for you to be |
| 219 | 00:42:09 --> 00:42:20 | able to do. And not just in forex, all those things are applicable in stocks, bonds. And some people say that stuff works in crypto. So while I don't want to |
| 220 | 00:42:20 --> 00:42:30 | introduce crypto in the mentorship, it's just proving that you've learned a higher order of analysis that some of you just probably don't really fully |
| 221 | 00:42:30 --> 00:42:36 | appreciate. And you probably won't appreciate it until years from now. Or if you leave it and try to do something else you're gonna be like, This is not what I |
| 222 | 00:42:36 --> 00:42:43 | was learning that ICT. And I mean, go back to that. But if you're smart, you won't look to do anything else. Because number one, it's not a sales pitch, |
| 223 | 00:42:43 --> 00:42:56 | you've already paid me because your charter. So you're here, relax, just take the content as you get it. Let it build you up and edify you. And then grow from |
| 224 | 00:42:56 --> 00:43:07 | that. Don't push don't force don't require more. Be content with what you have that you have a ton, you have so much more than the the universe at large in the |
| 225 | 00:43:07 --> 00:43:16 | trading communities, that you're on a different level. So don't be discouraged. Don't feel like you need more, because you don't even know you're going to have |
| 226 | 00:43:16 --> 00:43:28 | more. It's not my goal to inundate you with more information because more information too fast, will cause confusion. It'll cause self doubt. And that's |
| 227 | 00:43:28 --> 00:43:40 | counterproductive. So I provide you a monthly lesson on a model that's already been revealed. And I give you amplifications of how I use these things in my |
| 228 | 00:43:40 --> 00:43:47 | analysis when I talk about these markets going to specific levels. I'm not pulling things out of the air. I'm actually using the models I've taught you. |
| 229 | 00:43:47 --> 00:43:55 | And this is an example why I was telling you what I was telling you relative to the dollar CAD this past week and the week before. We were looking for this |
| 230 | 00:43:55 --> 00:44:04 | lowly rated we were looking for to go lower. We knew it was going to go lower if it's going to go below and although you know that protocol for that 1020 30 peps |
| 231 | 00:44:04 --> 00:44:14 | notice we did not get down to the 130 mid figure. So there will be no necessity to sweep an additional 40 peps if we go mid figure like we did with the |
| 232 | 00:44:14 --> 00:44:27 | forefinger 131 So it's it's enough to go just 10 pips below our calibrated level at 130 70. Okay, so these are all the things that require thought and balancing |
| 233 | 00:44:27 --> 00:44:36 | out what it is you think's going to happen. Some of you may have looked at this, okay. I think it's on trade down to the 130 50 level. Why? Why would you need it |
| 234 | 00:44:36 --> 00:44:46 | to do that? That's greed. Okay, if you use the low hanging fruit thresholds for your entries and your targets, it controls fear and greed because you're gonna |
| 235 | 00:44:46 --> 00:44:56 | fear whether or not you're gonna get that entry and exit. And you're really greedy, trying to pursue the best of the best, the highest order of profit, and |
| 236 | 00:44:56 --> 00:45:06 | the lowest measure of drawdown and risk. You can't have Have everything you can't, it just don't have that expectation in your trading, use the low hanging |
| 237 | 00:45:06 --> 00:45:15 | fruit entry technique, okay, and Bo wiring, building allowance rather, for your trades to have a little bit of drawdown against, it's nothing wrong with that. |
| 238 | 00:45:15 --> 00:45:22 | And over time, you're going to be refining it to where it's almost very next to none. But in the beginning, don't be fearful of having a little bit of drawdown, |
| 239 | 00:45:22 --> 00:45:30 | it's okay, in fact, you're gonna learn a lot. In fact, in August, we're gonna be doing drills that require you to sit through entries that are going to offer |
| 240 | 00:45:30 --> 00:45:38 | drawdown on purpose. Because I want you to feel what it feels like to be in those positions, and then wait for the turn around. Okay, so it's gonna be |
| 241 | 00:45:38 --> 00:45:47 | really, really early entries. And that's part of the things you need to know what it feels like to be in trades and trust that what you've done, is still |
| 242 | 00:45:47 --> 00:45:55 | going to pan out. Now, that sounds rather arrogant. And if you read on social media is going to happen this week, you know, there's a guy that said, you |
| 243 | 00:45:55 --> 00:46:05 | there's no way you know, while you're in, in honesty, there really is no way that I do know, I don't know, with absolute assurity, I have a high degree of |
| 244 | 00:46:05 --> 00:46:16 | probability on my, on my side, and then I favorite that the markets going to do what I think it's going to do most times. Now, it's not 100%. But the folks in |
| 245 | 00:46:16 --> 00:46:30 | the free form areas in social media, they interpret what I say, as I know, every single day, every single price swing, and therefore I should be a billionaire. |
| 246 | 00:46:30 --> 00:46:43 | And that's highly inaccurate perception. It's myopic, actually. So you here, understand what I mean by that, I know it's a great deal probability to market |
| 247 | 00:46:43 --> 00:46:53 | is going to go to that 130 70 level. And once it gets there, it has a great deal probability that it's going to sweep 10 pips below that 1020 and 30, you know |
| 248 | 00:46:53 --> 00:47:03 | that my threshold is going to be the lower than 10. In fact, I don't require the 10. If it trades to 130 70, that's enough for me, I'm getting out there. Okay. |
| 249 | 00:47:04 --> 00:47:15 | That's what I mean, when I say when you know that, you know, that, you know, then you know, and I know what I'm going to do. In the setups, you're still |
| 250 | 00:47:15 --> 00:47:25 | learning how to do that for yourself. So don't let it be a discouragement. You should be inspired every time you look at these examples, and I'll give you the |
| 251 | 00:47:25 --> 00:47:34 | analysis and show you the fruits of what you have been taught. These are the things that I'm not going through in detail when I do the commentary, because |
| 252 | 00:47:35 --> 00:47:43 | those commentaries are for your learning, you're supposed to be practicing and doing the things I've taught you in the lessons. Now remember, the commentary is |
| 253 | 00:47:43 --> 00:47:53 | me pointing and then you are shooting. I'm playing rangefinder, I'm your scout, you're the sniper, I'm telling you, this is the way you got to worry about the |
| 254 | 00:47:53 --> 00:48:02 | wind, you got to worry about you got to navigate this, you got to navigate that, but your objective is your mark is here. You got arrive at that. And some of you |
| 255 | 00:48:03 --> 00:48:13 | are, well some of some folks actually left. Because they want me to do all this for them. And I'm sorry, I'm not running a signal service for you. I'm gonna do |
| 256 | 00:48:13 --> 00:48:20 | that. I'm doing way more than I should, in my opinion. So if I tell you where it's gonna go, and I'll tell you what markets I'm not worried about and what I'm |
| 257 | 00:48:20 --> 00:48:30 | focusing on, I've done it. I've told you that euro and cable we didn't have a whole lot of interest in it. I said if we were going to put a gun to our head |
| 258 | 00:48:30 --> 00:48:42 | and pick a market to trade. I would be in dollar CAD dollar CAD came out and did it again. So it's every week, every day, and it won't stop. Until next time wish |
| 259 | 00:48:42 --> 00:48:43 | good luck, the trading |