ICT Charter PAM 4 - Supplementary Lesson
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-01-12 10:33
Outline
00:11 - Using price action model for quarterly shifts and seasonal tendencies in trading.
- ICT outlines a price action model for quarterly shifts and seasonal tendencies using Smart Money tour technique and CBOT hedging program.
02:13 - Technical analysis and market structure.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding the HIPAA data ranges and manipulating the data to interpret the commercials' net position.
- ICT explains the importance of SMT divergence in identifying potential market movements, specifically in the British Pound and Euro dollar pair.
- ICT highlights the significance of seasonal tendencies and commercial net short positions in the CMT hedging program, with a focus on the slide.
06:46 - 12 price action models for traders.
- ICT explains that the 12 models he will be sharing with the group will be like a foundation for a complete perspective on price action, and will help traders understand each model individually and collectively.
- ICT emphasizes that the lesson will focus on model number four, which he believes will provide evidence to the same concepts he taught last year, but with a graduated understanding required.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of conceptual understanding in trading, rather than just memorizing patterns.
- He encourages students to study each model individually before combining them for a comprehensive understanding of the market.
12:54 - Using free online resources for technical analysis.
- ICT uses co2base.com to analyze the British pound in May, highlighting the seasonal tendency of the currency.
- ICT mentions that the website offers a free chart, but also has a premium side that they are not familiar with.
15:28 - Using CIT to analyze co2 data for trading.
- Analyze market trends and seasonality to inform trading decisions.
- ICT: Small speculators are irrelevant, while large funds are opposite of commercials (counterparty liquidity).
- Using CIT, shade green for above range and red for below range, based on commercials' net position.
- Analyst highlights commercial trading activity in commodities, showing net long positions and price movements.
21:55 - Using seasonal tendencies to identify potential short trades in the British pound.
- ICT says Non Farm Payroll can create a "Judas swing" for the monthly range, leading to potentially profitable trades if analyzed correctly.
- ICT encourages viewers to study seasonal tendencies in various markets and combine them with Model Number 4 to identify high-probability trades.
- Analyst identifies manipulation in currency market, predicts shorting opportunity in May for British pound.
27:02 - Seasonal trading patterns in the British pound.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of seasonality in trading the British pound, citing 40 years of data supporting the model.
- ICT encourages listeners to backtest and study the data to convince themselves of the model's effectiveness, rather than relying solely on his word.
29:21 - Using seasonal tendencies for mega trades.
- Trader expects higher lows in dollar index, lower highs in British pound.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of model number four in identifying mega trades using seasonal tendencies.
33:43 - Market analysis and seasonal tendencies.
- Larry Williams has been a mentor to the speaker, but the speaker has found inconsistencies in his teachings and has questioned his methods.
- The speaker has struggled to reconcile Williams' binary thinking with their own more nuanced approach to trading and market analysis.
- ICT: Devised model #4 by deciphering CO2 data, combining it with seasonal tendencies, and identifying quarterly shifts.
- ICT: Acknowledged Larry Williams' term "mega trade," but clarified that making a trade every 3 months is more important than waiting for big yearly moves.
- Central banks manipulate financial markets to entice large speculators, creating volatility and liquidity for their own benefit.
40:20 - Using a monthly trading model for the British pound.
- Trader uses monthly model to identify seasonal tendencies and make trades.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding last year's teachings and how they relate to current market movements.
- ICT predicts that a specific trading model (model number four) will continue to provide accurate predictions for the British pound market in May, with potential for long-term profit.
- ICT explains a trading strategy using a model that involves identifying liquidity points and taking trades based on those points.
- The strategy involves selling short when the market reaches a high or low that is within a certain range of the last 20, 40, or 60 days, depending on the liquidity level.
47:00 - Technical analysis and market trends.
- ICT explains seasonal tendency and liquidity with MFI high and low.
- Ict emphasizes the importance of studying and growing in confidence to achieve trading success.
50:22 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- ICT shares insights on trading mechanics, including identifying low-hanging fruit scenarios and using breaker patterns for entry.
- ICT highlights the importance of understanding market conditions and liquidity to make informed trading decisions.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of listening to his teachings and following the rules he provides to avoid getting removed from the market.
- ICT demonstrates how to identify and trade a potential model number four scenario using a four-hour chart, with a stop loss placed at 145 pips.
56:29 - Trading strategies using market analysis.
- ICT highlights the importance of fair value in trading, emphasizing the need to identify and respect price levels.
- ICT uses Twitter to share insights and alert followers to potential trading opportunities, using hindsight to teach and improve trading skills.
- Trader identifies high-probability trade opportunity with 400+ pip potential.
- Wait for a fair value gap to form before shorting, using a risk of 50 pips.
01:02:51 - Trading strategies and risk management.
- Ken Roberts taught the speaker a pyramiding technique for trading commodities, where they buy more contracts as their account grows in equity.
- The speaker used this technique in soybeans and wheat, with significant profits on the final notice day, but also experienced over-leveraging their account.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of managing risk and maintaining a consistent trading strategy.
01:06:29 - Day trading and swing trading strategies.
- ICT identifies three entry points and defines dealing range based on initial sell signal.
- ICT explains a framework for identifying high-probability trading opportunities using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.
- The framework involves using a range of tools, including the PDRA matrix, seasonal tendencies, and probability calculations, to identify optimal entry and exit points.
- Determine how much to allocate initially based on your risk tolerance and potential additions.
- Focus on entering above the midpoint in the premium for optimal results.
01:12:44 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- Trader explains how to manage trades in compliance with HIPAA regulations.
- Analyst highlights symmetrical price action in market move, suggesting potential measured move.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of staying within the rules and not getting creative with the strategies given.
- ICT shares their personal experience and sacrifice in providing the lesson, and hopes the student appreciates it.
01:19:29 - Trading strategies and market analysis.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding the trending model in markets, citing 1987 as an example of a year where everything was in line for a major move.
- ICT encourages listeners to reflect on their reasons for studying under him and how they can apply the lessons learned to their trading, emphasizing the importance of clear filters and a binary approach.
- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding the markets and executing trades with small scale, fair value gaps, and optimal trade entries and runs on liquidity.
- ICT encourages listeners to reflect on their reasons for signing up with him, as he provides weekly market updates and executes trades with better results than shown in his models.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:11 --> 00:00:25 | ICT: Okay, folks, welcome back. This is a supplementary lesson for price action model number four, one position trading. Case ICT Price Action Model number |
| 2 | 00:00:25 --> 00:00:36 | four, position trading, quarterly shifts and seasonal tendencies. Now, obviously in review, I won't spend too much time on this because you should already be |
| 3 | 00:00:36 --> 00:00:47 | familiar with this model that's already been presented in its foundation, the stage for the setups are going to be quarterly shifts. So every three months or |
| 4 | 00:00:47 --> 00:01:00 | so, there's going to be a swing that forms in the marketplace. And we're coupling it with a seasonal tendency. The setup itself is going to be framed on |
| 5 | 00:01:01 --> 00:01:17 | a Smart Money tour technique, combining correlated pair SMT or US DX SMT. And we're blending with the confluence of the CBOT hedging program. Okay, so my |
| 6 | 00:01:17 --> 00:01:32 | application of deciphering what co2 data is telling us not to not traditionally seen in co2 data. And the pattern itself is going to be external range liquidity |
| 7 | 00:01:34 --> 00:01:55 | as our profit objective Okay, so this is the framework. Okay, because I gave you last year. Okay, in 2018, I gave you a presentation that utilized the bearish |
| 8 | 00:01:55 --> 00:02:14 | seasonal tendency in the British pound. Now, I'm sticking with that one here. Because it's salient it, it communicates the framework, the the truth. Okay. The |
| 9 | 00:02:14 --> 00:02:24 | prognostication of the things that I actually taught you last year, it just happened again. Okay. So if there's any doubt, okay, if there's any doubt |
| 10 | 00:02:24 --> 00:02:34 | whatsoever, if I'm teaching you something that is relevant, or if it's really there, or if it's the truth behind the marketplace, let this be a testimony to |
| 11 | 00:02:34 --> 00:02:48 | it. Okay, trust me, I'm giving you gold. This is the overall internal perspective I have on this model is is how I internalize everything. So if I was |
| 12 | 00:02:48 --> 00:02:56 | to refer to certain aspects to this model, again, like I said, in the foundational study, when it was first released last year, these are the things |
| 13 | 00:02:56 --> 00:03:07 | that I'm envisioning in price. Okay, so, I'm top of the list. Okay, the highest part of this slide, is I'm referring to the HIPAA data ranges. Okay, so I'm |
| 14 | 00:03:07 --> 00:03:19 | looking back 2014 60 days. And I'm considering what the commitment of traders hedging program is, what's what it's telling me. So the way I manipulate the |
| 15 | 00:03:19 --> 00:03:32 | data to tell me what the overall I guess, net position really is for the commercials not on the basis of what traditional CRT or commitment traders |
| 16 | 00:03:32 --> 00:03:41 | graphs show, but the way I interpret it, okay, so if you are unfamiliar with that, if you rush through the mentorship, you need to go back through all that |
| 17 | 00:03:41 --> 00:03:54 | because it's important to understand it. The overall price structure or market structure is on a daily chart, I want to see some previous high broken on the |
| 18 | 00:03:54 --> 00:04:09 | upside. Okay, so if that occurs, at the same time, a SMT divergence forms then in the graph shown here, it's showing that this would be basically a Euro dollar |
| 19 | 00:04:10 --> 00:04:19 | and this would be like, British Pound. Okay, so the British pound making a higher high running on an old higher and older higher here and the Euro dollar |
| 20 | 00:04:19 --> 00:04:32 | failing to make a higher high. The setup is this for pound, so the pound must have this price structure here. Okay, so if the market structure does not show |
| 21 | 00:04:32 --> 00:04:41 | this, model four is not happening yet. Okay? You have to wait or it just doesn't come to fruition. Now, if you're looking at the SMT divergence with the dollar |
| 22 | 00:04:41 --> 00:04:52 | index, and you have inverted, okay, or on your indicator I share with you, if you have set it to mirror it's going to show it like this, this would be the |
| 23 | 00:04:52 --> 00:05:00 | dollar index like that. Okay, and this would be what you'd expect to see a higher high in cable, or British Pound versus dollar or if Just looking at the |
| 24 | 00:05:00 --> 00:05:14 | futures market on the British pound, it's a higher high being formed in pound sterling and a lower, high if the dollar index is mirrored or inverted. If it's |
| 25 | 00:05:14 --> 00:05:24 | not being inverted, you want to see a failed lower low. Okay, in other words, it's gonna be a higher low on the dollar index. And trust me, listen to what I |
| 26 | 00:05:24 --> 00:05:34 | just said, Everything I've explained to you, you should know. And this is the expectation that we have. This is a monthly candle, we're looking for expansion |
| 27 | 00:05:35 --> 00:05:48 | on the downside, targeting some daily equal low or old sell side liquidity pool. And we're going to be utilizing the last six months. Okay, look back for the CMT |
| 28 | 00:05:48 --> 00:05:59 | hedging program. And the final piece of the puzzle is we want to see this forming during a seasonal tendency. So we're seeing the commercials hold a heavy |
| 29 | 00:05:59 --> 00:06:10 | net short position with my interpretation of co2 data. seasonal tendency, net short commercials hire high running liquidity on the buy side, they're pairing |
| 30 | 00:06:10 --> 00:06:22 | orders. That's the ideal scenario, they want to be above an old high, they want to be up there where there's a high pool of liquid participants that want to buy |
| 31 | 00:06:22 --> 00:06:31 | it from them, okay, because my thoughts will be ran out on short holders, okay, or breakout artists will be buying that breakout. And smart money will be used |
| 32 | 00:06:31 --> 00:06:36 | utilizing that liquidity to be counterparty for their short positions. And we'll be doing the same thing. |
| 33 | 00:06:42 --> 00:06:54 | Again, we're focusing on the slide here. Next year, I will give you an example for this model. And I know it seems like I'm stretching it out a lot. But as |
| 34 | 00:06:54 --> 00:07:04 | you'll see with this lesson, it's not that you're not learning something new, because I'm actually going to show you as we go through these, how they all |
| 35 | 00:07:04 --> 00:07:13 | complement themselves, okay, they, they work well with one another, even though you can only really just focus on one and do very, very well. And then what's |
| 36 | 00:07:13 --> 00:07:23 | one model, some of you may have fallen in love with model one, or model two, or three, model four is really, really good if you're a long term perspective |
| 37 | 00:07:23 --> 00:07:36 | trader. But don't think that just because I'm only giving you once a year updates on these models that they're not. They're not important or they're not |
| 38 | 00:07:36 --> 00:07:44 | relevant, or not going to be helpful to you. Because you're going to see in this lesson, how a lot of things come together. And even if you don't want to be a |
| 39 | 00:07:44 --> 00:07:53 | presenter, say you're a day trader at heart or a scalper and even a one shot, one kill this is too much of a time to be in a trade for yourself, they say you |
| 40 | 00:07:53 --> 00:08:03 | that's your personality. And it may be then this model doesn't really communicate that effectively to you right now. Okay, and you probably watched |
| 41 | 00:08:03 --> 00:08:10 | it, you get access to the new group of charter members, you probably watch this and said, Man, you know, it's all great. Now, Michael, but this doesn't fit me |
| 42 | 00:08:10 --> 00:08:21 | and I see you doing all these day trades. And I want to be a day trader. Well, again, don't try to mimic me. Okay, I'm giving you 12 unique models. And I'm |
| 43 | 00:08:21 --> 00:08:32 | going to build them up over time. But you're going to also see over time, by studying them all collectively, they all help you understand each of them |
| 44 | 00:08:32 --> 00:08:44 | individually and as a whole. So these 12 models are going to be kind of like your foundation to a complete perspective, and a wide spectrum of understanding |
| 45 | 00:08:44 --> 00:08:51 | price action. So even though you may not be a position trader, or you may not be a day trader, this model is going to communicate a whole lot of detail, |
| 46 | 00:08:52 --> 00:09:00 | especially with the supplementary lesson here. So I don't want to I don't want to browbeat you, okay, and give you all kinds of hype, hype, hype, hype hype, |
| 47 | 00:09:01 --> 00:09:10 | and it's going to let it deliberate itself. And then you come to a conclusion whether or not you you glean anything useful from I believe you will. So again, |
| 48 | 00:09:10 --> 00:09:22 | this lesson is going to focus on again, just what we shared last year. Okay, for model number four. This is going to be just one more evidence to the very things |
| 49 | 00:09:22 --> 00:09:35 | I taught last year. And if I was honest, without tell you you're probably thinking when you first see these models that this isn't what I hoped it would |
| 50 | 00:09:35 --> 00:09:45 | be. And what your expectations and your hopes are, is I'm going to tell you how to get into a trade every single time using it. But there's going to be a |
| 51 | 00:09:45 --> 00:09:58 | graduated understanding that's required. Okay, and like I said, this is 27 years almost now of experience, and I just there's no way for me to compress it into a |
| 52 | 00:09:58 --> 00:10:06 | tiny little pill for you to swallowing boom. You have everything that I know, it doesn't work like that. So you have to see things conceptually. And then I |
| 53 | 00:10:06 --> 00:10:16 | introduce other things that will complement that. But I'm not going to draw too many parallels to what you should see, because I'm going to rob you of that aha |
| 54 | 00:10:16 --> 00:10:25 | moment where happens. And then when you get that moment, it's astonishing. And you get addicted to it, and it feeds your desire to study more. That's why I |
| 55 | 00:10:25 --> 00:10:33 | teach the way I teach, it may be frustrating for some of you, you want to all that right now, if you think you're going to understand it, and you don't. And |
| 56 | 00:10:33 --> 00:10:44 | the perfect illustration of that is, look how much I gave him free tutorials. Look how much I gave, and I was given out wave after wave of videos. And people |
| 57 | 00:10:44 --> 00:10:51 | are still swimming in that stuff. And they don't know what they're doing with it. Because it's overload. So in mentorship, I'm giving you a structured way of |
| 58 | 00:10:51 --> 00:11:00 | studying it, bite by by piece by piece, and over time, you're going to devour the elephant, okay, and that elephant is that smart money elephant, where it |
| 59 | 00:11:00 --> 00:11:09 | jumps in that little Children's Pool, if I taught in the free tutorials, and it gives displacement, you'll appreciate all that, because you've gone through a |
| 60 | 00:11:09 --> 00:11:18 | structured learning here, I don't want to give you too much. And right now I'm talking to the group that's already paid. So there's no sales pitch, I'm not |
| 61 | 00:11:18 --> 00:11:31 | stringing you along, you already gave me your money. So I want you to focus on the things that are very, very, I guess generic, they just repeat over and over |
| 62 | 00:11:31 --> 00:11:40 | and over again, throughout all of the models. And that's that one string, that from model number one to model number 12. If any one of those models, if you tug |
| 63 | 00:11:40 --> 00:11:52 | on a string, okay, of insight, all of the models will will react because they're linked. There's no one in one particular model that is in, you know, |
| 64 | 00:11:52 --> 00:12:04 | individualized, okay, or isolated. Okay, it's not like, all of them have their own unique, they can't work any other way. This is the way it is. They're these |
| 65 | 00:12:04 --> 00:12:14 | models are always in action. They're always in play. The perspective is, is when you sit down in front of the charts, when you get in sync with price action, |
| 66 | 00:12:14 --> 00:12:24 | where are we at in the spectrum of these 12 models? That's the paradigm that's going to shift in your understanding. But I can't make that happen for you. |
| 67 | 00:12:24 --> 00:12:37 | It'll happen by you're studying and relating to all of them on an individual basis first, then collectively, Okay, so next year, I will give you a bullish |
| 68 | 00:12:37 --> 00:12:48 | scenario, I just wanted to communicate to the first group because I had a lot of people in the first group, they weren't really won over by this one. Okay, |
| 69 | 00:12:48 --> 00:12:55 | because it was like, Okay, this is what you have to do. And they had to sit around and wait a full year to see if this would really work. And here we are. |
| 70 | 00:12:56 --> 00:13:07 | So again, this is a repeat of the same theme that we used in the initial foundational lesson. So this slide will look very familiar, it's the exact same |
| 71 | 00:13:07 --> 00:13:16 | one and we're focusing on the British pound, and the month of May and the seasonal tendency here is very clear, you can see the month of May typically is |
| 72 | 00:13:16 --> 00:13:39 | bearish for pound sterling. Alright, so this chart here. This is a chart from co2 base.com. Okay. COTBA s e.com. It's a free website, it allows you to pull up |
| 73 | 00:13:39 --> 00:13:53 | what you're seeing here, I was trying to pull up the bar chart.com CRT chart, and disable the small specks and the large speculators and just show the |
| 74 | 00:13:53 --> 00:14:04 | commercial line. Before whatever reason, the interactive chart that allows you to do that there wouldn't let me do it. So I'm not sure if it's something I've |
| 75 | 00:14:04 --> 00:14:11 | done, but I didn't have enough time to work with it today. So I just used another free resource on the internet. And if you weren't aware, this one, this |
| 76 | 00:14:11 --> 00:14:19 | is another one. I learned about this actually from a couple of our students, they asked me what my opinion of it was, I looked down and that's pretty good. |
| 77 | 00:14:20 --> 00:14:29 | But they do offer like a premium side. I don't know anything about the premium side. I don't get any kickbacks. I literally just went to this website for the |
| 78 | 00:14:29 --> 00:14:38 | second time today just to grab this chart. The only only time I've ever been there was when the student were asking me what my opinion was about it. In my |
| 79 | 00:14:38 --> 00:14:52 | opinion is this as long as the data is showing in a manner that is supporting your study, and it's not grossly inaccurate. Then you can use it don't let me |
| 80 | 00:14:52 --> 00:15:01 | kind of like paint you into a corner you only use these tools. Okay. You may end up finding something that I love. Okay, that I'm not We're off. Um, right now my |
| 81 | 00:15:01 --> 00:15:09 | time is preoccupied with this. And I used to have a lot of time to be able to look for other things and delve into other, you know, individual studies and |
| 82 | 00:15:09 --> 00:15:19 | researches and take a look at what's available after I don't have that luxury anymore. I'm inundated with everyone that's a part of this group. So this is the |
| 83 | 00:15:19 --> 00:15:30 | chart, you would see if you pulled up the British pound at co2 base.com. And take a look at the chart down here. Okay, this is the commercials, this is that |
| 84 | 00:15:30 --> 00:15:41 | red line. And it's set to six months, which is really nice, because I teach you the co2 hedging program perspective on a six month basis, a 12, or 12 month |
| 85 | 00:15:41 --> 00:15:50 | basis, and a multi year. Okay, so from from a quarterly shift standpoint, and once every three months or so, there's going to be a price swing, it takes |
| 86 | 00:15:50 --> 00:16:03 | place. Now, in your notes, this is what you want to be writing, every three months, there's going to be a significant quarterly shift, and price swing, not |
| 87 | 00:16:03 --> 00:16:15 | every single currency is going to have that unfold. The key is you want to be studying the market for right now, what quarter are we in? And what seasonal |
| 88 | 00:16:15 --> 00:16:24 | tendencies are hot right now? Or what should be hot? Okay, know, what's what, what typically happens, you know, with a great deal of consistency with the |
| 89 | 00:16:24 --> 00:16:35 | seasonal tendencies, what markets are generally moving one sided, higher or lower. Okay. And if you do that, you'll, you'll be better equipped to use this |
| 90 | 00:16:35 --> 00:16:35 | model. |
| 91 | 00:16:39 --> 00:16:49 | When I look at this price chart like this, so if I look at co2 data, I am just because I've been doing it for so long, I ignore the large speculators because |
| 92 | 00:16:49 --> 00:16:57 | it's always going to be a mirror image of commercials are doing. Okay. So if you look at what they're doing, I mean, they're actually marked to market lock |
| 93 | 00:16:58 --> 00:17:09 | counterparties, everything on the commercial side is liquidity purpose, they are taking the other side, they are the provider of the currency, it's their it's |
| 94 | 00:17:09 --> 00:17:22 | their commodity, it's their product, okay, so when they sell it to people, okay, they're providing that liquidity. If they want to bring in that, that price, |
| 95 | 00:17:23 --> 00:17:34 | okay, they will manipulate things in price to kind of like deter interest one way or the other by the large speculators. The small speculators is going to be |
| 96 | 00:17:34 --> 00:17:45 | shown under these two lines here on co2 base dot coms chart. The small speculators are just completely graphed independently, which I love, which the |
| 97 | 00:17:45 --> 00:17:54 | folks at this website did a really wonderful job in that in that regard, because whenever you look at the C or T graph, illness, traditional stance, usually the |
| 98 | 00:17:54 --> 00:18:00 | small speculators are in here somewhere doing whatever they're doing. And they're generally most of the time wrong. So we don't care about small |
| 99 | 00:18:00 --> 00:18:08 | speculators, and we really don't need to see what the large speculators are doing. Okay. So that's the, the understanding you get from studying with me, I |
| 100 | 00:18:08 --> 00:18:15 | don't care what those two other lines are showing me because I already know what the large funds are doing, they're going to be the opposite of whatever the |
| 101 | 00:18:15 --> 00:18:25 | commercials are doing. Okay, because commercials are offering counterparty liquidity. So when I see this, my, my eye goes immediately to the highest in the |
| 102 | 00:18:25 --> 00:18:36 | last six months, and I find the lowest in the last six months. That's my range. And then I see where we are currently. Okay. And that's all you're doing, when |
| 103 | 00:18:36 --> 00:18:48 | you're using the application of CIT, hedge programming that I taught in the mentorship. What it looks like graphically, once you change it all up. And |
| 104 | 00:18:48 --> 00:18:58 | again, I do not do this. For my own study, I don't need to do it, I can see it. Over time, you will get this way too. Or maybe you need to do this, okay. But |
| 105 | 00:18:58 --> 00:19:08 | all I did was take the highest of the commercials net position, and the lowest of the net position by the commercials, and that's that range. Half of that |
| 106 | 00:19:08 --> 00:19:23 | range is here. Everything above it, I shade green. Everything below it, I shade red. Now, you've seen a many, many examples of me in showing you this. If you |
| 107 | 00:19:23 --> 00:19:34 | look at the co2 data, and again, let's look at it again. This is the graph. If you look at it from a traditional stance, their net long so they're above is |
| 108 | 00:19:34 --> 00:19:44 | your line. That what's the what's the commercial perspective, from a retail, a trader using co2 At this moment, they're bullish, right. Well, the commercials |
| 109 | 00:19:44 --> 00:19:54 | are long. Why is this going down like this? If the commercials are holding a net long position? Oh, see, it doesn't work. I'm frustrated. This is dumb. Believe |
| 110 | 00:19:54 --> 00:20:03 | me, I had that that. That thought process and through my mind so many times I was a younger guy because I didn't know what I was doing. Even as good as Larry |
| 111 | 00:20:03 --> 00:20:13 | Williams information was, as he talked about it in his 1970s book, how I made a million dollars trading commodities last year. Absolutely awesome book, it's one |
| 112 | 00:20:13 --> 00:20:22 | of the best books you'll ever, ever ever own in your library. So many things about that book are still real true the relevant to today, and they're probably |
| 113 | 00:20:22 --> 00:20:32 | always going to be relevant because the markets are going to move the way they are. If you use his view of co2 data, you're not going to see what I showed you |
| 114 | 00:20:32 --> 00:20:41 | here. Okay, I don't know if Larry's ever seen what I've done with CRT data. But the long and short of it is it's there's nothing like it because when you come |
| 115 | 00:20:41 --> 00:20:53 | to this conclusion, you really get to the core of what the commercials are doing. All through here their net long. And look what's happening every time we |
| 116 | 00:20:53 --> 00:21:07 | hit a discount array that's bullish, the market rallies, okay, their net long, we trade down into an order block, fair value, gap, beautiful, expands again, |
| 117 | 00:21:07 --> 00:21:17 | okay, price comes back down again, trades into an order block. This is a wick, so you disregard that, go right back in here, the order block trade into here |
| 118 | 00:21:17 --> 00:21:27 | and look at this big pop in commercial net long positions right there. And then you see a really nice surge in price there. They stay net long in here, but |
| 119 | 00:21:27 --> 00:21:38 | very, very modestly. And then a shift gears there. Now watch what happens. accumulation, accumulation, accumulation, and boom, here's the displacement. |
| 120 | 00:21:39 --> 00:21:49 | Something's up, what's going on. They're selling in here. And look what they're doing. They're selling aggressively, right there. As price runs up, you're still |
| 121 | 00:21:49 --> 00:22:04 | selling into this rally. Remember this high here? Right here. That's Non Farm Payroll. For me, that Friday, remember what I said that week, I said many times, |
| 122 | 00:22:05 --> 00:22:14 | the Non Farm Payroll, we'll create the Judas swing for the monthly range. That wasn't the only time I've ever said that. But the key is, you have to know model |
| 123 | 00:22:14 --> 00:22:27 | number four. Oh, now it's starting to get real good in it. If you know what you're looking for, for the next quarterly shift, or the monthly seasonal |
| 124 | 00:22:27 --> 00:22:38 | tendency that's going to be hot right now. And you look at the the Non Farm Payroll, if it creates a nice obvious one sided directional move, it could lead |
| 125 | 00:22:38 --> 00:22:48 | to a Judas swing. Okay, so no one's excreting the, the opposite end of the monthly range. So if we're bearish, like the seasonal tendency is for British |
| 126 | 00:22:48 --> 00:23:01 | pound in May, if it rallies, we'll Non Farm Payroll, well, you can pretty much safely assume that there's probably worthwhile investment on your part to go in |
| 127 | 00:23:01 --> 00:23:09 | here and study and see if there's something in there as a short. Now, I'm not trying to sell to your heart, I'm not trying to imply to hey, look, this is |
| 128 | 00:23:09 --> 00:23:19 | always going to work. It's 100% all the time. That's not what I'm suggesting here. But I am saying that if you don't at least consider it every May, then |
| 129 | 00:23:19 --> 00:23:30 | you're really missing the boat in terms of a really loaded lead pipe cinch deal. In other words, these types of trades are the ones that are so heavily one |
| 130 | 00:23:30 --> 00:23:42 | sided. Not all of them will pan out, they're not 100%. But if you are ever going to find trades that are going to be so far in your favor, but still not be |
| 131 | 00:23:42 --> 00:23:54 | perfect and 100% because nothing ever is, this is it. This is the model you look for for these really low hanging fruit barnburner just knock them out of the |
| 132 | 00:23:54 --> 00:24:02 | park type trades model number four. The problem is the first group that went through and maybe the new charter members is just recently obtained charter |
| 133 | 00:24:02 --> 00:24:10 | level, they are now watching this video as well. And just watch the first introduction to model number four. The again they probably were underwhelmed |
| 134 | 00:24:11 --> 00:24:18 | because they think oh, he's only just taught about the seasonal tendency for a British pound in May. That's just one trade. How many months are in a year |
| 135 | 00:24:18 --> 00:24:26 | Michael is 12. Right, right. But how many markets are there and you want to go through all of your seasonal tendencies I gave them to you in month number five. |
| 136 | 00:24:27 --> 00:24:36 | And I told you go through and pick the ones that you really feel comfortable with. I gave you my best picks for seasonal tenancies. So that's another lesson |
| 137 | 00:24:36 --> 00:24:46 | if you go back and look at all that stuff, combine it with Model number 409 Get someone else's study this weekend. There's hot dogs and hamburgers. So we can |
| 138 | 00:24:46 --> 00:24:54 | see heavy net selling by the commercials all throughout here. And while this was consolidating, this could have been like well, you know, so it's like it's |
| 139 | 00:24:54 --> 00:25:03 | bullish, it's a bull flag. It's the consolidation part of an uptrend is going to continue up. Well now Not necessarily, especially if we combine what the dollar |
| 140 | 00:25:03 --> 00:25:16 | index is suggesting we've been bullish on Dollar Index, waiting for that weekly Sydney to fill in. seasonal tendency enters the market for British pound in May, |
| 141 | 00:25:16 --> 00:25:27 | as bearish Non Farm Payroll Friday of May, we get that big surge higher. Now, you think it was random. Now looking in hindsight, perfect. Hindsight, you can |
| 142 | 00:25:27 --> 00:25:41 | see we cleared out a nice, old high. They're heavily net short best selling all this is is manipulation right in here. All this right here is manipulation. This |
| 143 | 00:25:41 --> 00:25:41 | is the Judas swing. |
| 144 | 00:25:43 --> 00:25:53 | Moving on into the logic in the parameters for the trade. Again, the idea was that the seasonal tendency for the pound sterling is bearish in the month of |
| 145 | 00:25:53 --> 00:26:03 | May. And we look for co2 hedging program to reflect an excessive net short holding by the commercials trading on the anticipation of a quarterly shift in |
| 146 | 00:26:03 --> 00:26:16 | the majors. When GBP USD or to British Pound futures market runs an old high inside a 2040 or 60 Day crypto daily range. And there is a SMT divergence in |
| 147 | 00:26:16 --> 00:26:25 | either the dollar index or the euro dollar. If you go back and look at your charts on Mays high on the daily chart, and I'll show you a chart with the |
| 148 | 00:26:25 --> 00:26:37 | dollar index in contrast, but I don't include the Euro dollar chart here, but it did diverge bearishly to the higher high in British pounds. But we look to short |
| 149 | 00:26:37 --> 00:26:50 | the open of the last up close candle want to stop. Okay, so I'll go into the next chart and you'll see a bit more detail. Now, Mays monthly range when it's |
| 150 | 00:26:50 --> 00:26:59 | bearish. And it's typically when we expect it to be bearish in the month of May. This is every single year, folks, every single year, I look for shorting |
| 151 | 00:26:59 --> 00:27:10 | opportunities in May, for the British pound. It's just one of those months that if you just sit back, and you just wait, let everything line up. And just let it |
| 152 | 00:27:10 --> 00:27:18 | go. Don't worry about it, trade it, follow rules, and you'll be fine. Okay, you might get stopped out, you might be a losing trade once in a while, throughout |
| 153 | 00:27:18 --> 00:27:27 | your whole career, one year will happen where it doesn't work. And believe me, if it does, don't throw this away, don't toss it out, you know, thinking oh, |
| 154 | 00:27:27 --> 00:27:35 | it's never gonna work again, don't do that. Because it's so strong of a seasonal tendency. Don't be surprised if one year it could be next year doesn't work, |
| 155 | 00:27:36 --> 00:27:43 | then go right back in and sync again. Or it could work the next five years in a row. And then on the sixth year, it nails you with a losing trade. Okay, don't |
| 156 | 00:27:44 --> 00:27:55 | read too much into that because this is such a table. It's got 40 years of data supporting it. That's incredible. 40 years, man, think about that 40 friggin |
| 157 | 00:27:55 --> 00:28:01 | years, you're not even going to be trading that long. Let's be honest, you're not going to be a trader that long, I'm not going to be probably trade in 40 |
| 158 | 00:28:01 --> 00:28:10 | years. So let's be let's be clear about that. You don't need a lot of sample size data to support this model. Because it supports itself because of the |
| 159 | 00:28:10 --> 00:28:20 | seasonal tendency that's created over the long time that the British pound I mean, simply just go back. Look at your data. Look how many times every single |
| 160 | 00:28:20 --> 00:28:34 | month of May, how often GBP or pound sterling futures contract declines in this month, around 500 pips or so that's what the that's what I wrote up in the in |
| 161 | 00:28:34 --> 00:28:46 | the post for the forum. It averages around $500 per pet. Now, did I just pull that number out of the air? No. Go back and look at it for yourself. And then |
| 162 | 00:28:46 --> 00:28:56 | you'll be convinced, don't take my word for anything. Because all I'm doing is pointing and you're never going to believe it until you practice with it and see |
| 163 | 00:28:56 --> 00:29:05 | it and study. And once you have the data, like I've taught you how to accumulate with the backtesting for fair it gaps. That's how you convince yourself that |
| 164 | 00:29:05 --> 00:29:15 | what I'm teaching you, it's no fluff. There's no rehashing there's new renaming of other things. This is exactly what the banks are doing. And I'm not talking |
| 165 | 00:29:15 --> 00:29:27 | about the banks like JP Morgan, or UBS. I'm talking about the central banks. And I'll let everybody else think they figured me out on Twitter and social media |
| 166 | 00:29:27 --> 00:29:37 | but you're seeing the real stuff. So the month of May, that monthly range, we expect it to expand lower, have a strong impulse move lower inside that monthly |
| 167 | 00:29:37 --> 00:29:49 | range or candle there for weekly ranges or candles. All we're trying to do okay is we're seeking some range inside that monthly range before the candle |
| 168 | 00:29:49 --> 00:30:02 | completes, and a new monthly range begins in June. That is to say that we want one or more of the four weeks that construct monthly rain To profit. That's what |
| 169 | 00:30:02 --> 00:30:13 | this model is seeking to do. I have $1 index chart here. Now zoom in on that, because I can appreciate what I'm going to show you here. This is the respective |
| 170 | 00:30:13 --> 00:30:24 | Lowe's for the dollar index. Okay. So we obviously, you know, because of the analysis every single week, and the midweek Wednesday reviews, I've been bullish |
| 171 | 00:30:24 --> 00:30:35 | on the dollar index expecting these equal highs to be taken out, and also reaching up into that weekly city. So we have a higher low here, in the first of |
| 172 | 00:30:35 --> 00:30:48 | May, so may 1 2019. We have a higher low on the dollar with a relatively bullish scenario, with a drop in liquidity. Everything was bullish dollar, which is |
| 173 | 00:30:48 --> 00:30:59 | exactly what you want to see, for a month that's bearish foreign currency or cable. If we move over to the British pound chart, here's those respective |
| 174 | 00:31:00 --> 00:31:14 | reference points in mirror image, we have the old high here, and the higher high formed in the British pound. Now, this higher high forming when we saw that the |
| 175 | 00:31:14 --> 00:31:30 | dollar index was unwilling to make a lower low that this should have went lower. It didn't. This is accumulation. Okay, $1. And distribution. And pairing of |
| 176 | 00:31:30 --> 00:31:41 | orders above an old high, say they ran by stock or by side liquidity. Why did they do that? Remember, I gave you details and hints all this month, go back to |
| 177 | 00:31:41 --> 00:31:49 | the week of Non Farm Payroll, I guarantee you all of you forgot about model number four, Nobody followed the instructions I gave relative to seasonal |
| 178 | 00:31:49 --> 00:31:59 | tendency lessons in month number five, I told you to go through. And on a calendar for the next calendar year in 2019, you want to have a list of markets |
| 179 | 00:31:59 --> 00:32:06 | that you want to be watching for that particular month. That's how you use model number four. Now I'm going to say it again, for those that didn't pay attention |
| 180 | 00:32:06 --> 00:32:15 | the first time how you use model number four, you're going to study the seasonal tendencies. And you want to pick the best months with the best seasonal tendency |
| 181 | 00:32:15 --> 00:32:27 | pair or currency. Or even commodity doesn't have to be a currency. And you're going to create a watch list per month for every single month. And you're also |
| 182 | 00:32:27 --> 00:32:40 | going to study which ones generally perform better each quarter of the year. And then you got it. That's your watch list for mega trades. Holy cow, you tell me |
| 183 | 00:32:40 --> 00:32:49 | that I just pulled in Mega trades are brought in swing trading seasonal tendencies. And all the quarterly shift moves is going to happen every single |
| 184 | 00:32:49 --> 00:32:58 | year. Yeah, that's exactly what I just taught you. You've had it since model number four and month number five content. That's what mentorship is taking the |
| 185 | 00:32:58 --> 00:33:07 | parts, putting them together, there are so many limitless ways of using the content I've already given you just in core content. I don't have to teach you |
| 186 | 00:33:07 --> 00:33:17 | anything else new. And I can build all kinds of beautiful systems and methods that will absolutely destroy anything else out there in the marketplace. There |
| 187 | 00:33:17 --> 00:33:27 | isn't anything out there. There's not one thing out there that anyone else is gonna teach you. That's better than model number four, period. I don't care what |
| 188 | 00:33:27 --> 00:33:37 | discipline it is, I don't care who won what contests? How many percent already did I don't care, okay, nothing beats this. There's nothing beating this because |
| 189 | 00:33:37 --> 00:33:46 | this is the sick. This is the secret sauce, if you will, for finding all the big moves every single year. If you look at and follow Larry Williams, every year, |
| 190 | 00:33:46 --> 00:33:56 | he does like this pick that he does like, I'm not sure if it's a newsletter or it used to be a newsletter. But he used to pick like the big moves. He was |
| 191 | 00:33:56 --> 00:34:05 | forecasting for the for the coming year. And I always kind of like in the beginning when I was a new trader, I subscribed to all that stuff. And I wasn't |
| 192 | 00:34:05 --> 00:34:17 | really surprised. You know, when a lot of it didn't come to fruition. There was too many months in between when things would change. And a lot of the things he |
| 193 | 00:34:17 --> 00:34:27 | taught were kind of like arguing internally with me about why he was suggesting certain markets were going to outperform that year. It was a problem for me |
| 194 | 00:34:27 --> 00:34:40 | because the hero I had created in my mind about him as my first real mentor is that I didn't I didn't find it comfortable for him to be so wrong. I didn't like |
| 195 | 00:34:40 --> 00:34:52 | that. So I created another challenge for myself where where he said he didn't understand how people buy below the open Bush days. Wall now I taught that it's |
| 196 | 00:34:52 --> 00:35:02 | power three. Well, he didn't come out and say he sucks as a trader in his big moves aren't that good? A filter out for each year. didn't ever really say that. |
| 197 | 00:35:02 --> 00:35:10 | But that's what I got from studying his first six or seven years. I've been doing it in my career. I mean, he's probably been doing it longer than that. But |
| 198 | 00:35:10 --> 00:35:19 | when I came to realization that who he was, I subscribed to everything he did, and even as SMP trades, and I really wasn't impressed with that, either. So |
| 199 | 00:35:20 --> 00:35:34 | I quickly determined that he has a hidden Miss strategy. But when it wins, he can say this is the reason why. But when it loses, he doesn't know why. He just |
| 200 | 00:35:34 --> 00:35:45 | accepts it. And that's, I guess, in a lot of ways, that's fine. But for me, I'm not wired that way. I need to find out why. So that's why I understood the |
| 201 | 00:35:45 --> 00:35:54 | markets were algorithms because that's how I think everything has to be binary. It's always been that way with me, I'm black, and I'm white. I'm Yes. And I'm |
| 202 | 00:35:54 --> 00:36:04 | new. And I'm polarizing, even in my personality. And that's why I'm not everyone's mentor. But if people would just segregate my personality, from the |
| 203 | 00:36:04 --> 00:36:13 | content that I teach. There isn't anybody on this planet that I wouldn't help turn into some crazy nut job that could pull precision setups ever marketplace |
| 204 | 00:36:13 --> 00:36:23 | consistently. I can do that for anyone. But you have to overcome me, I'm not going to change me for that to happen. I can't, I've tried it many times, and I |
| 205 | 00:36:23 --> 00:36:35 | just can't do it. So I gotta be me. And when I sat down, and I said to myself, I said, Look, there's going to be signatures in the marketplace, that tell me when |
| 206 | 00:36:35 --> 00:36:43 | these moves are going to happen. And I didn't trust the co2 data anymore. Because I was believing every time he saw every natural position, by the |
| 207 | 00:36:43 --> 00:36:49 | commercials, Larry Williams in his hotline, I call it up. And I'd be in there, you're looking to do something with the bond market. The next day, I'd be |
| 208 | 00:36:49 --> 00:36:58 | looking to shadow trade soybeans and whatever else he was talking about live cattle, lean hogs, or live hogs back then. pork bellies, all pork bellies, so he |
| 209 | 00:36:58 --> 00:37:14 | was pretty good pork bellies. I'll give him that. But they don't trade anymore. So the the epiphany I had that led to model number four was deciphering co2, the |
| 210 | 00:37:14 --> 00:37:23 | way it really is, like I show you here, and showed you the mentorship and combining that with seasonal tendencies on a monthly basis, and also each |
| 211 | 00:37:23 --> 00:37:34 | quarterly shift. So there isn't just this blanket statement that 2019 the big winners, or the big moves are to make a trade because make a trade, isn't it my |
| 212 | 00:37:34 --> 00:37:42 | term? I just borrowed that from Larry Williams. So in that regard, I do take that because he's that's what he's referred to him as a mega tree. And I was |
| 213 | 00:37:42 --> 00:37:48 | very clear about that, even in the free tutorials when I was teaching all that stuff. And I say that back then in the 90s. When I was teaching, I said, it |
| 214 | 00:37:48 --> 00:37:56 | sounds awesome. Make a trade, you know, that's the trade I want to be that's the Bitcoin at the big point move of every every year in the commodity in the |
| 215 | 00:37:56 --> 00:38:10 | commodity market. But there's that move every single three month period. And that's when it hit me like, oh, that's what that is. That's portfolio shifting, |
| 216 | 00:38:11 --> 00:38:22 | and money rotation. Okay, that money cycled it takes place in how the financial markets swing every three months to stimulate and agitate. Okay, because if they |
| 217 | 00:38:22 --> 00:38:33 | don't do that, if the central banks do not instigate movement, the markets will become stagnant. And a stagnant marketplace is not in their best interest. They |
| 218 | 00:38:33 --> 00:38:42 | don't want stagnant markets. They want gyrating markets, they want to see movement. Okay. So that's why seasonal tendencies are there. Okay, it's this the |
| 219 | 00:38:42 --> 00:38:50 | only reason why they're here because there's, they're following the same model. If you look at from a top down perspective of the central bank is the puppet |
| 220 | 00:38:50 --> 00:38:59 | master. They're, they're the storefront owner, the commodity is price. So if their selling price, either be higher or lower, okay, or the narrative, let's |
| 221 | 00:38:59 --> 00:39:09 | say it that way, if you're trying to convince the public, it's a bullish market or bearish market, you know, that stimulation in the thoughts and understanding |
| 222 | 00:39:09 --> 00:39:22 | of traders and investors, it's going to create more volatility, because who is the who's the volatility and liquidity that the central banks are really trying |
| 223 | 00:39:22 --> 00:39:36 | to entice? The large speculators, the folks that are at these big banks, the UBS, the city, Jade, JP Morgan, these large Goldman Sachs, all these big firms |
| 224 | 00:39:36 --> 00:39:47 | to have lots of money behind them. That's what the central banks are working with. They are playing counterparty to them. Now, sometimes they consume like a |
| 225 | 00:39:47 --> 00:39:58 | cannibal. And sometimes they don't. And it's not that you're trying to put those banks out of business. They're not in there trying to do that because if that |
| 226 | 00:39:58 --> 00:40:08 | was their motive, they would have done too. though, you can study the co2 data and see that the large speculators, okay, are always diametrically opposed |
| 227 | 00:40:08 --> 00:40:18 | perfectly to the commercials. So I don't try to worry about, you know, outsmarting either one of those parties, I just want to know what the |
| 228 | 00:40:18 --> 00:40:27 | commercials are doing right now for this quarter. And this month, what's hot. And that's what I do with month model number four, I actually use model number |
| 229 | 00:40:27 --> 00:40:40 | four every single month. Now, it's taught to you to use as a quarterly shift, but I just told you how I also use it in amplified format. I literally use model |
| 230 | 00:40:40 --> 00:40:50 | number four, every single month, with a hot topic. seasonal tendency. So every month, there's a seasonal tendency, that's usually very hot. If I get |
| 231 | 00:40:50 --> 00:41:01 | technicals, to line up with that, with the dollar index, and SMT comes in, they're behind it. Amen, it's, it's nothing better than that. Because then |
| 232 | 00:41:01 --> 00:41:11 | they'll allow me to do a swing trade releases a position trade, a swing trade would be a little bit longer than a one shot, one kill. Okay, but this is a |
| 233 | 00:41:11 --> 00:41:19 | monthly range. So we're talking about position trading, okay. And sometimes these moves can be utilized to participate in like several months of a hold. |
| 234 | 00:41:19 --> 00:41:30 | Now, I did that in my first five or six years of trading. But it was very, very hard for me to stay in that model. So that's why I became a very, very short |
| 235 | 00:41:30 --> 00:41:41 | term day trader or short term trader working with a weekly range. This is how I use the monthly range. Now the wonderful thing about this is, the framework that |
| 236 | 00:41:41 --> 00:41:52 | I gave you last year, is exactly what came to pass here. Again, it's the same market. It's the same context, the same thing that I taught you in the logic |
| 237 | 00:41:52 --> 00:42:04 | behind this model is exactly what took place in this market. Everything that I told you on the weekly reviews and midweek reviews relative to the cable market, |
| 238 | 00:42:04 --> 00:42:15 | think about it. I told you that we were focusing on GBP. This this whole time I was shunning euro dollar. See how it's starting to make sense. Now, I'm not |
| 239 | 00:42:15 --> 00:42:27 | willy nilly being okay, and pulling things out of the air. Just to hear myself talk as much as I'm in very, very wordy. Okay, in long winded. I'm telling you a |
| 240 | 00:42:27 --> 00:42:34 | lot of details, because I want you to be able to go back and hear me Oh, he did say that. All those things. They're all premeditated statements. I've already |
| 241 | 00:42:34 --> 00:42:44 | already know what this is going to do. I already know it. Proof of it is go back and look at what I've taught you last year, those videos, they give you these |
| 242 | 00:42:44 --> 00:42:53 | things there for your learning. I already knew this stuff. So if you look at the logic that was shown to you last year for model number four, see the folks that |
| 243 | 00:42:53 --> 00:43:02 | just came in, they don't really appreciate, okay, but the new charter members for this year. They're like, is this neat? The first group, they should be like, |
| 244 | 00:43:02 --> 00:43:13 | Man, this is this really is incredible. I guarantee and none of you, none of you revisited this model number four for me. And I didn't want to prod you, because |
| 245 | 00:43:13 --> 00:43:22 | I want you to see by error. Because there's only we're going to learn. I told you this was going to happen last year. And I'm telling you now, it's probably |
| 246 | 00:43:22 --> 00:43:32 | going to do this every single year, your career. Now think about that. Everybody right now is talking about oh, the Mega Millions gained tonight. Okay. Some guy |
| 247 | 00:43:32 --> 00:43:40 | on Twitter asked me Do I buy lottery tickets. Now I don't buy lottery tickets, because it's rigged in a way that I can't, I can't beat that system. This is |
| 248 | 00:43:40 --> 00:43:55 | rigged, but I got the data and statistical probabilities behind what I do in my decisions. Model number four is a perfect example of time travel. Because you |
| 249 | 00:43:55 --> 00:44:06 | you'll be able to know, okay, what the markets are most likely going to do in May, for the British pound. Think about the power in that. Now, granted, it's |
| 250 | 00:44:06 --> 00:44:18 | one condition. It's one market and it's one particular month of the year. But man, what do you think this move right here can do for you. If you do it every |
| 251 | 00:44:18 --> 00:44:26 | single year, and you milk it. That's why I want to teach a little bit on today because it's not just a long term position trading model. There's a lot of |
| 252 | 00:44:26 --> 00:44:35 | things you can do with this. So using the framework that was shown for the original lesson, alright, so market makes it a little higher Hi, runs out the |
| 253 | 00:44:35 --> 00:44:45 | daily high here it's a higher high from s&p divergence. We have bots and liquidity being ran. This is a Judas swing is a turtle soup sell false breakout, |
| 254 | 00:44:45 --> 00:44:56 | whatever you want to call it. This is pairing orders with buyside liquidity for smart money looking to go short. If they're taking this entry, or pairing orders |
| 255 | 00:44:56 --> 00:45:08 | above that, okay. They're running an old daily high which is part of the launch In the original model, it's an old daily high inside the last 20 days. Right |
| 256 | 00:45:08 --> 00:45:09 | here, |
| 257 | 00:45:09 --> 00:45:19 | come back 20 days. So Jeff here, they could have ran this high that need to why because we have this short term high here. Remember, it's an any old high or low |
| 258 | 00:45:20 --> 00:45:30 | in that range, because that's where the liquidity gonna be here. And then here. So if it runs up here, and falls short here, what's the rules, we have to sell |
| 259 | 00:45:30 --> 00:45:40 | short, want to stop at the last close candle, that's this price right here. So we don't need to worry about if it's going to run this high or this high, |
| 260 | 00:45:40 --> 00:45:48 | because either one, you're not going to get into trade until it comes back down there anyway. That's why I gave you this model for position traders that don't |
| 261 | 00:45:48 --> 00:45:56 | have time to sit in front of charts, day trading, worrying about things every five minutes, you can relax, the market will take you into market when it's |
| 262 | 00:45:56 --> 00:46:08 | time. Okay. So once this creates a scenario, immediately, you put an order right there at 130 31. Want to stop you're selling short, your stop loss goes to the |
| 263 | 00:46:08 --> 00:46:19 | top of that candle. That's it. What are you aiming for? Liquidity below a low here, where why this low? Well, that's the lowest loan last 20 days. Okay, what |
| 264 | 00:46:19 --> 00:46:26 | about the lowest loan last 40 days? That's what this line is here? Well, this is the lowest low in the last 40 days. What about the lowest loan the last 60 days, |
| 265 | 00:46:26 --> 00:46:34 | that's this line right here? Well, that's this liquidity here. Remember what I was telling you all month long, we're going to be targeting this run below this |
| 266 | 00:46:34 --> 00:46:48 | low here. After we take this area here and this low out, you see how I was using this model, the entire month of May, every single week, I was explaining to you |
| 267 | 00:46:48 --> 00:47:02 | before the market reached for these liquidity points, every single time. The logic was model number four. I can't make it any plainer than that, folks. It's |
| 268 | 00:47:02 --> 00:47:13 | just as simple as that it's cut and dry. Okay. It's not a lot of moving parts to this model. It's very simple. Okay, I'm taking few poor few points and parts of |
| 269 | 00:47:13 --> 00:47:24 | what you learned from all the core content and put it in certain positions and places at the right times. And it's becoming perfectly clear to you. Now looking |
| 270 | 00:47:24 --> 00:47:38 | at this. We have the open here, a rally creating the MFI high here. And then what is that that's the Judas swing, and market breaks down power three. Now |
| 271 | 00:47:38 --> 00:47:46 | we're towards the end of the month, but not the very end of the month. So just like the lemon close on a daily range, we're near that, okay, we're going to |
| 272 | 00:47:46 --> 00:47:53 | probably expect it to bounce around and go off the low, it could go lower. I'm not saying it isn't going to do that. I don't know personally, I don't know |
| 273 | 00:47:53 --> 00:48:02 | that. I don't need to know it. But in here, we had expected this now consolidate and move into consolidation, go back and look at the seasonal tendency. And |
| 274 | 00:48:02 --> 00:48:12 | you'll see that's exactly what the seasonal tendency show, both on a 15 year summary and a 40 year summary of what the seasonals do. It gets real choppy |
| 275 | 00:48:12 --> 00:48:23 | right about now, going into the month of June. So we caught the biggest swing for that seasonal tendency already. It's in place. And it's also satisfied all |
| 276 | 00:48:23 --> 00:48:32 | of the points of liquidity. We have the old low here, we have that salsa liquidity with old low here, and then beyond 60 days low because that's what |
| 277 | 00:48:32 --> 00:48:39 | happens when we use the up to date ranges. What happens if we go below the lowest low in the last 60 days? Michael, can you go outside the next? What's the |
| 278 | 00:48:39 --> 00:48:49 | next low? Here? That's all I did, folks. That's all I did. I use the very things I taught you in the mentorship. I'm not creating new things. I'm not trying to |
| 279 | 00:48:49 --> 00:49:00 | confuse you. I'm not trying to make it harder for you. I'm doing exactly what I promised back in August of 2016 When I started this whole circus here, okay, |
| 280 | 00:49:01 --> 00:49:13 | everything I told you is happening. But I also told you it's going to take time. Look what you've learned so far. Look what you have in your understanding right |
| 281 | 00:49:13 --> 00:49:24 | now. Believe me, this is nothing. This is nothing compared to what you're going to learn. But I have to give you certain things to grow in your confidence and |
| 282 | 00:49:24 --> 00:49:36 | also to keep you inspired to study because if you don't study, you're not going to get where you want to me. Now, this shaded area here is delineating the |
| 283 | 00:49:36 --> 00:49:45 | seasonal tendency when it's bearish. Okay, so may 1, all this time we're bearish. Isn't that exactly what I shared in the 2018 presentation of model |
| 284 | 00:49:45 --> 00:50:02 | number four? Think about two years ago on baby pips, I showed that I made 1000 pips in the month of May. This is why I did it. I did it using model number |
| 285 | 00:50:02 --> 00:50:16 | four, to come on, think about it. Everything I do is scripted, not what I say here because I just have diarrhea of the mouth. But everything I do, from an |
| 286 | 00:50:16 --> 00:50:26 | engagement perspective is always the script. Because that's what the markets are scripted. And I figured it out. So I'm sharing with you the very mechanics that |
| 287 | 00:50:26 --> 00:50:35 | you need to be doing every single time you go into the marketplace. Look for these low hanging fruit scenarios. If you trade outside of them, don't be |
| 288 | 00:50:35 --> 00:50:45 | confused and surprised really that it's harder. Because that's why I trade very infrequent. Now on Twitter you see me doing on just about every day, I'm doing |
| 289 | 00:50:45 --> 00:50:54 | something. I do that to answer people that are talking smack about me. Now I'm not directly saying haha, look at us, but they know they're watching. So it's |
| 290 | 00:50:54 --> 00:51:02 | just like an inside joke for me. And they know who they are, that are talking smack. I don't need to call them out and point to them. They all know who they |
| 291 | 00:51:02 --> 00:51:15 | are. So the breaker here, we have a down close candle here. Remember breakers? Well, that's the pattern here. So even if you don't use this model, and you need |
| 292 | 00:51:15 --> 00:51:23 | confidence, okay, you need to be assured, you wait for it to break down like it does here below the low. It goes below the breaker and then trades right back up |
| 293 | 00:51:23 --> 00:51:32 | until here. So there's an entry using the breaker. Wow, that's pretty neat. We're combining some things. Also, if you look real close, this small little |
| 294 | 00:51:32 --> 00:51:39 | fair value gap right there. You've been spending a lot of time a fair value gaps recently with me. Okay, well, that could be your entry here trade in the air. |
| 295 | 00:51:39 --> 00:51:50 | Here's your entry on a fair value got let him in. And now we have model number fours opening price on this last closed candle, which is also what when price |
| 296 | 00:51:50 --> 00:52:02 | breaks down below the last close candle hidden in a bearish order block. Oh, you see, it's not one PD array that's better than the other. It's the market |
| 297 | 00:52:02 --> 00:52:14 | condition that dictates which one you use. Think about that. Because it's escaped most of you all this time. All of you want to be Otterbox champions. |
| 298 | 00:52:15 --> 00:52:23 | Everybody on YouTube got a YouTube video about OtterBox. And none of them know what you're talking about. None of them now and one on there that knows what |
| 299 | 00:52:23 --> 00:52:31 | you're talking about when it comes to old blokes want proof of the pudding? Go and look at your videos and watch what happened in the market afterwards. It |
| 300 | 00:52:31 --> 00:52:41 | doesn't, it doesn't happen. Okay. So when I'm pointing to certain things, it works. Because I have the narrative and I have the logic behind why these things |
| 301 | 00:52:41 --> 00:52:49 | are going to work. Again, just because it's an up close candle and market trade down below doesn't make it a bearish order block. If there's a fair value gap |
| 302 | 00:52:49 --> 00:52:58 | there, and there's a seasonal tendency, or there's a heavy drop in liquidity, after running external range liquidity like we have here. Okay, so we have |
| 303 | 00:52:58 --> 00:53:06 | external range liquidity tapped here. So if smart money is going short here, what are they gonna do? They want to see prices go lower, right? Of course they |
| 304 | 00:53:06 --> 00:53:14 | do, as long as we're gonna profit, but they can't profit with just going down a little bit. They needed to go for a larger pool of liquidity on the other side. |
| 305 | 00:53:15 --> 00:53:23 | There's a large pool of liquidity on the sell side right here. They rush for that here. They hit it. And then there's another one here, they rush for that |
| 306 | 00:53:23 --> 00:53:35 | one. And then over here for good measure, boom, every single one of them we talked about before it happened. We focused on your Eurodollar. What? Next and |
| 307 | 00:53:35 --> 00:53:49 | nothing. I said don't touch it. Why? Because this is the one that's loaded for this month. Hello. Come on. Listen to me, okay, you have to listen, if you do |
| 308 | 00:53:49 --> 00:53:58 | not listen to me. And you try to do things on your own and try to tinker with stuff. And you don't do the very things I've taught you with the rules I've |
| 309 | 00:53:58 --> 00:54:09 | given you. Why are you here? Think about that. Because if you're not getting what you hoped to get, it's not because I haven't taught you. It's because |
| 310 | 00:54:09 --> 00:54:18 | you're not listening. And some of you don't want to listen, and that's fine. I don't need to do anything, the markets gonna correct you. And either you'll |
| 311 | 00:54:18 --> 00:54:26 | determine whether or not that you have to correct yourself and get in line with the rules I'm giving you or you'll get removed. The market has a really good, |
| 312 | 00:54:26 --> 00:54:36 | efficient way of doing that. So let's take a closer look at what goes on in this model on a lower timeframe. Now when I say lower timeframe, I'm not talking |
| 313 | 00:54:36 --> 00:54:46 | about five minute 15 minute like that. When we are position traders we can still use a four hour chart and there's nothing that's going to prevent anyone being |
| 314 | 00:54:46 --> 00:54:53 | able to look at a four hour chart and help them frame of setup or get more refined details. |
| 315 | 00:54:55 --> 00:55:07 | Here we have that same price swing. Here's that higher high that creates the s&p divergence. And here is that opening price on the daily, I've extended it out in |
| 316 | 00:55:07 --> 00:55:16 | time. And we also have the breaker here. So the market goes below this low on this candle right there. When we trade below and come back up into the breaker |
| 317 | 00:55:16 --> 00:55:26 | here, you can be a seller there. Now I know this is not part of my month number four, or I'm sorry, model number fours, logic. But I'm trying to bring things |
| 318 | 00:55:26 --> 00:55:36 | together because you can see how starting with the framework of model number four, or seeing a market move that's already happened that you may not have |
| 319 | 00:55:36 --> 00:55:46 | caught. But you study it and go back into looking at the details. Oh, wow, this is in the process of creating a model number four scenario, then you can still |
| 320 | 00:55:46 --> 00:55:55 | use all the things I've taught you to get in sync with the move. Oh, now, now it's starting to get something right. And so here we go. You can go short on the |
| 321 | 00:55:55 --> 00:56:08 | stop here and you're filled using the daily candle. Simple, it's done. your stop loss is up here. Now, that is 145 pips risk. Now some of you're thinking, hey, |
| 322 | 00:56:08 --> 00:56:18 | no way. Okay, how good that move was Michael, there's no way I'm entering a trade with 145 pips stop loss. And I agree, I just I just, I have a real problem |
| 323 | 00:56:18 --> 00:56:27 | with that. Because I know there's ways I can refine that risk. And I want to teach it to you in this model here. But I want you to still remember that this |
| 324 | 00:56:27 --> 00:56:37 | is what the original criteria is. And still, it's beautiful. So we have over 400 pips available, running the old daily lows here in here. That's it, there's |
| 325 | 00:56:37 --> 00:56:48 | liquidity points, our runs of liquidity, and then we had this big surge up in here runs up into a fair value gap. Perfect opportunity to go short again. Now I |
| 326 | 00:56:48 --> 00:56:55 | missed that. And I was very clear when I said that I didn't see it when it happened. But I want everybody back here. You take your profits. If you if |
| 327 | 00:56:55 --> 00:57:03 | you've been in the move, take your profits, it's Tuesday, right before FOMC FOMC. Even in minutes, we'll still sometimes create non farm payrolls circus |
| 328 | 00:57:03 --> 00:57:14 | rides. And while you see it here, boom, that it got to any just random level? Absolutely not. They went to what I've been teaching you fair value. There was |
| 329 | 00:57:14 --> 00:57:27 | very in instant, there was a lot of instability for price. On the downside here and buying liquidity or offering the box that liquidity wasn't efficiently |
| 330 | 00:57:27 --> 00:57:40 | handled here. It's only one single pass through on the downside. Now notice from the wicks low to this candle is close. It passed both directions in there. But |
| 331 | 00:57:40 --> 00:57:53 | this range from this candles high in this candles low was left open until we saw this candle, and it trades up into beautifully. Then it gives it back. And I |
| 332 | 00:57:53 --> 00:58:07 | mentioned on Twitter, interesting level that the four hour trades too on cable. I wanted to buy product, you look where it's going. Think folks think, okay, |
| 333 | 00:58:07 --> 00:58:16 | that's how I use Twitter, I get your attention, whether you pick up on it or not. It's not for me to decide. But I'm doing it every single week and pointing |
| 334 | 00:58:16 --> 00:58:24 | somewhere I want you to focus. It's not a signal service. I'm not telling you what to do with your money. But you can see the things happening real time if |
| 335 | 00:58:24 --> 00:58:31 | you just pay attention. And don't be upset if you're not picking up on everything, because you're going to learn a lot from the hindsight side of it. |
| 336 | 00:58:31 --> 00:58:43 | That's how I taught myself. Everything I've taught you. It was all through hindsight. And you see me every single week on these moves every single week. It |
| 337 | 00:58:43 --> 00:58:55 | works but you have to submit to that process. So we have 145 pips risk with over 430 pips available in positive range. Okay, this has the potential to make |
| 338 | 00:58:55 --> 00:59:04 | profit if you hold the entire position and position trading is that's the nature of that style. So you would hold for the lowest point of liquidity in the last |
| 339 | 00:59:04 --> 00:59:13 | 60 days and if it still has time and liquidity that could still be tapped or purged. You look and see if you can get some of it. But this is beautiful, like |
| 340 | 00:59:13 --> 00:59:23 | we have over 400 pips on a position entry. Now that's not 500 pips Michael, you said it averages around 500 pips? Well, it's very close to right. I mean, it's |
| 341 | 00:59:23 --> 00:59:32 | not exactly 500 pips. But I know some of your thinking that and also, I'm gonna bring a little bit more lessons in detail. So now we're starting to start |
| 342 | 00:59:32 --> 00:59:46 | thinking a little bit more owl grow rhythmically, oh, big word algorithmically. If we look at this pricing, okay. And we already mentioned this is a market |
| 343 | 00:59:46 --> 00:59:56 | maker sell model. Go back and look at the profiles on the form and in the videos. We have consolidation in here market rallies up re accumulation, Smart |
| 344 | 00:59:56 --> 01:00:08 | Money reversal, low risk entry. Wow. This is a four hour chart. And I can see this entry here. If I know I can trust this pattern because it's usually |
| 345 | 01:00:08 --> 01:00:16 | consistent with seasonal tendency. And I trust this as manipulation because of the s&p divergence between the dollar index and the euro dollar. So we have both |
| 346 | 01:00:16 --> 01:00:26 | SMP divergence from a correlated pair stance with the euro. And we have us DX SMT divergence, with the dollar making higher low. So we had everything, |
| 347 | 01:00:27 --> 01:00:39 | everything, there isn't one ingredient missing. For this trade here. Everything's, we got blue ribbon results coming. So if we expect this to be a |
| 348 | 01:00:39 --> 01:00:52 | Judas, swing, Non Farm Payroll, okay, late in the day on Friday, if you're a position trader, you can get right in there and sell it right before the close |
| 349 | 01:00:53 --> 01:01:04 | of the day. Or you can wait for proof. What's the proof? Well, you want to wait and see may not be at Friday, maybe the next trading day on Monday or Sunday, we |
| 350 | 01:01:04 --> 01:01:15 | want to see the market try to trade away. And it does. And it creates a fair value gap. Right here, one single pass that candle right there. In this candle |
| 351 | 01:01:15 --> 01:01:24 | defines it with its high right there. Now, it's not going to show you the price because it's PowerPoint, I want you to go into your charts, you study it. Market |
| 352 | 01:01:24 --> 01:01:36 | creates a run on that liquidity taps into it fair value, get we're into drill, boom, you can go short here, using a fair value got that 131 25 or 125 and a |
| 353 | 01:01:36 --> 01:01:45 | half, because that would be the actual price level here. And you can still use that old high, framing it the same way we would do it on the position entry |
| 354 | 01:01:45 --> 01:02:03 | model for model number four. And we define our risk with a meager 50 pips. Whoa, we went from 145 pips risk, to now 50 with still the same profit objectives in |
| 355 | 01:02:03 --> 01:02:18 | mind. This one now is a better, better well, there our model was well over 10 to 110 to one on a position trade. All it gets better folks watch. This is your |
| 356 | 01:02:18 --> 01:02:29 | entry here, stop loss here. Now. If you miss this one fine, no problem. Wait and see if we create another fair agar. Remember, this is a four hour chart folks. |
| 357 | 01:02:29 --> 01:02:36 | It's not the five minute chart or one minute chart where I was telling you go and look for these five minute in one minute. Fair Value gaps that get in |
| 358 | 01:02:36 --> 01:02:44 | institutional refer for the daily range. This is a long term position move. So if you see inefficient moves like this, we have a gap in here. If the market |
| 359 | 01:02:44 --> 01:02:56 | trades back up to it, or an order flow entry, drill, entry technique, boom, sell short there. Or if you've already taken your entry here, say say you went short |
| 360 | 01:02:56 --> 01:03:03 | five of them here. So you have five minis here, or five standards, or 50, standard loss, whatever your whatever it is, it doesn't make a difference when |
| 361 | 01:03:03 --> 01:03:16 | it is if you've done say for instance five here, okay, you want to do three here. You want to do less, because your pyramid and you're adding. So you don't |
| 362 | 01:03:16 --> 01:03:24 | want to be building up when I first learned how to trade a guru, Ken Roberts, and I was going in there trying to trade 10 contracts of corn. And if it gave me |
| 363 | 01:03:24 --> 01:03:31 | an entry technique to get in there, which at the time, all I was doing was at the time, I was only buying. So I was doing everything I'm showing you here in |
| 364 | 01:03:31 --> 01:03:39 | reverse. But I was buying every time it created a new higher high, I would be buying on a stop in that's all I was doing. I was buying strength. That's all I |
| 365 | 01:03:39 --> 01:03:49 | really did with with commodities when I first started and once I experienced a down move or down or bearish market. I didn't know what I was doing, I was |
| 366 | 01:03:49 --> 01:04:04 | losing a lot of money. So the style of pyramiding I was taught by Ken Roberts was if I buy 10, and my account grows in equity, and I can afford to trade 20 |
| 367 | 01:04:04 --> 01:04:14 | more, because of the profits, I would buy 20 On the next entry. And then if I could carry 40 the gain on the next entry after that I would do that. And I |
| 368 | 01:04:14 --> 01:04:23 | would build these big positions up. You know that would really be way over leveraging my account. I did one of them in soybeans. And one of them also in |
| 369 | 01:04:23 --> 01:04:27 | wheat. And quite frankly, I was trading on the |
| 370 | 01:04:29 --> 01:04:40 | final notice day and trading where like there's no limits, like the current currency when that was actually a grain. Scoreboard trade wheat didn't have any |
| 371 | 01:04:40 --> 01:04:49 | limits when it did that. And it was moved. It moved like $5,000 per contract in one day. It was crazy. Like it was moving all over the place. And it was in the |
| 372 | 01:04:49 --> 01:04:58 | mid 90s It was all kinds of drought issues and problems and I was in that but as good as that move was in my favor. That could have been something that would |
| 373 | 01:04:58 --> 01:05:04 | have completely crushed me and I I wouldn't have been able to have the money to pay the brokerage firm like it would have been, it would have been real problem. |
| 374 | 01:05:04 --> 01:05:16 | But that's what that kind of pyramiding does. And you don't want to do that. If you go in again, say, say you did five here, okay? Say, for sake of safety, say |
| 375 | 01:05:16 --> 01:05:25 | you went in with five minis here, okay? If you get this entry here, you could add to it three more minis. And your stop loss on the three minis here would be |
| 376 | 01:05:25 --> 01:05:35 | this high here in the position here on the five, the stop loss would be here. But you would only do that position. If you allowed yourself to have that total |
| 377 | 01:05:35 --> 01:05:44 | risk, not exceed your maximum risk exposure, my maximum risk exposure is three and a half percent. Only because I'm comfortable with finding setups that are |
| 378 | 01:05:44 --> 01:05:53 | really good choice setups. And I'm pretty efficient about getting money back if I lose it. I'm not suggesting three and a half percent is ideal for you. In |
| 379 | 01:05:53 --> 01:06:02 | fact, it's way, way, way, way, way too high. 2% is way too high for you. I think 1% should never be exceeded if unless you've been trading for five years |
| 380 | 01:06:02 --> 01:06:13 | consistently profitable. Never ever, ever, ever experienced larger risk than 1%. You can do a lot trust me, it doesn't feel like you can you because you don't |
| 381 | 01:06:13 --> 01:06:23 | know my math behind it. But doing what I'm going to show you here, you can still build velocity trading position trading, but I don't have the patience, the |
| 382 | 01:06:23 --> 01:06:32 | personality to stay in these types of moves. But nonetheless, we have another fair value gap in here. This is your entry. And the stop loss would be above |
| 383 | 01:06:32 --> 01:06:41 | this high here. So you have three entries here. Either one of these can be used as the initial entry and not use the opening price from the daily candle. |
| 384 | 01:06:42 --> 01:06:54 | Because I've incorporated other facets of the core content with this model. Now, say you went short five here, you added three more here. And and now what would |
| 385 | 01:06:54 --> 01:07:06 | you do here? One? That's it. You can't add any more. Why? Because once the market moves below this point right here, what's this point? This is the dealing |
| 386 | 01:07:06 --> 01:07:17 | range? pdra matrix. Okay, the dealing range, is this, this high here to this low, right? No? Teach me teach me dealing ranges. Michael, what do you mean, |
| 387 | 01:07:17 --> 01:07:28 | when you say dealing range? Well, I'm teaching it right now. The low to the high. That's the initial parent price swing or the original price range, okay. |
| 388 | 01:07:29 --> 01:07:39 | The dealing range is defined by the initial sell signal right here. Once the sell signal happens, and it starts to deliver price on the downside, that is |
| 389 | 01:07:39 --> 01:07:47 | where you start and you define the dealing range. Not this because this is a stop run. This is the dealing range. Why did the dealing rates because you can |
| 390 | 01:07:47 --> 01:07:57 | see them selling short here and now they're distributing price lower. Oh, wow, you got a lot in this lesson so far. And we're not done. If we have the dealing |
| 391 | 01:07:57 --> 01:08:08 | range defined like this, then you can incorporate what I taught you model them month number five, using the pdra matrix, and the premium to discount and |
| 392 | 01:08:08 --> 01:08:25 | seasonal tendencies, you use that with this range, this dealing range is defined and split in half here, you can only add you can only add or enter at the |
| 393 | 01:08:25 --> 01:08:39 | midpoint or higher when price is in a premium. And you can only pyramid when it's in a premium. Down here, the probabilities fall off precipitously in terms |
| 394 | 01:08:39 --> 01:08:49 | of odds of being in your favor for any additional entries, even though they can be shown here. In hindsight, trust me when I tell you that just because of |
| 395 | 01:08:49 --> 01:08:58 | seasonal tendency works a lot, it can still burn you. And the only way you can define it with high probability, which is what you're learning here. This is the |
| 396 | 01:08:58 --> 01:09:09 | facet you need to see in your setup. If you do this, this is what it does actually doing. This is the whole framework behind this particular price move |
| 397 | 01:09:09 --> 01:09:19 | using what I've only taught you thus far. So you can frame it with an algorithm stance. And the perspective. There's 1000 different things inside this fractal |
| 398 | 01:09:19 --> 01:09:29 | here that I have not taught you yet. That is crazy, based on time and day. And I'm telling you 2020 is gonna be awesome cuz you're gonna see a lot of things |
| 399 | 01:09:29 --> 01:09:42 | that are in a very, very dry in delivery of content. But it's the things that you don't understand that I do that leads to why I'm such I'm very consistent in |
| 400 | 01:09:42 --> 01:09:51 | this the these are the things that no one knows. So this is a framework using just the core content that you can see how it does, in fact, do what it's doing |
| 401 | 01:09:51 --> 01:10:00 | all the time. I told you this framework is going to be here in May, I told you last year and here we have it again. Okay. I tossed off I told you that it moves |
| 402 | 01:10:00 --> 01:10:12 | about 500 pips on average, well, hello, here's 500 pips. You do the math on what you could have avoided, what amount of volume but what you could have afforded |
| 403 | 01:10:12 --> 01:10:23 | for trading either of these setups, or all three of them using the criteria I gave you. If you sell one down here, and you're using a stop loss up here, |
| 404 | 01:10:24 --> 01:10:33 | there's not a lot of risk there. If you sell short here, and you're using the stop loss up here, there's not a lot of risk there either. If you're selling |
| 405 | 01:10:33 --> 01:10:42 | short here, and using that as your stop, there's not a lot of risk there either. So they're all around 50 pips or so or less from the entry to where their stop |
| 406 | 01:10:42 --> 01:10:54 | loss would be. You need to determine how much you're going to allocate initially, they'll think, if you've done your entry here on five minis, and |
| 407 | 01:10:54 --> 01:11:06 | you're using the stop loss up here, and you don't want to exceed 1%. That means if you have intentions of potentially adding to the position, then you have to |
| 408 | 01:11:06 --> 01:11:16 | use less than 1% On your first entry. And then factor in how much you can afford going forward. That's something that you need to determine yourself, that's, |
| 409 | 01:11:16 --> 01:11:27 | that's going to be that gray area that I just won't go into. Because if I say anything in terms of this is the framework that you should use, this is what you |
| 410 | 01:11:27 --> 01:11:36 | should do for your your setup, I'm actually telling you what to do with money. And I can't do that, because we're talking about demo trading. And I'm not |
| 411 | 01:11:36 --> 01:11:48 | licensed to give that type or that level of advice. So I'm pointing you in the right direction to determine how you can frame it yourself. But you have to be |
| 412 | 01:11:48 --> 01:12:00 | very aware that even though you're entering in here, or here or here, the ideal scenario is is you want to be entering above that midpoint in the premium. Now, |
| 413 | 01:12:01 --> 01:12:07 | some of you are thinking, wait a minute now, this is a four hour chart, isn't there other opportunities to enter down here? Yes, but that's other models. And |
| 414 | 01:12:07 --> 01:12:18 | it's other applications. And it's right now we're talking about day trading, and swing trading, intraday, that's not the scope of this model. So don't be |
| 415 | 01:12:18 --> 01:12:27 | confused on that, stating that you still can't take a five minute fair value gap in all this price action here because we're in a discount for the setup. I'm |
| 416 | 01:12:27 --> 01:12:37 | specifically talking about model number four, which is a position trade model. The only thing I wanted to include here and amplify with a supplementary lesson |
| 417 | 01:12:37 --> 01:12:47 | is how you can pyramid using this model, and how to frame the high probability aspects and think about price. From an algorithmic standpoint. What makes the |
| 418 | 01:12:47 --> 01:12:55 | setups in line with HIPAA is what I've shown you here. And I've taught you how to define what the dealing ranges. And this is how you do all the dealing |
| 419 | 01:12:55 --> 01:13:02 | ranges. So whenever you hear me talking about, okay, there's this dealing range here, you need to look at that range and and break down the next timeframe below |
| 420 | 01:13:02 --> 01:13:10 | it, like fall stock mount on hourly chart and go down to an 15 minute chart. And you'll see what I just gave you the context of where the initial signal is |
| 421 | 01:13:10 --> 01:13:19 | inside that range. That's where you define the range or the dealing range from and then here it is, the liquidity down here is first profit a three tick your |
| 422 | 01:13:19 --> 01:13:28 | first scaling. So regardless if you sold short here, here, or all of them, on every one of these, say assume for a moment that you got all three positioned |
| 423 | 01:13:29 --> 01:13:43 | entry. This would be where you take a partial and all three of them. Now in the States, you'd have to take partial off because of separate positions, and you'll |
| 424 | 01:13:43 --> 01:13:52 | have to take them off. You probably on this trade here first, and then this one and this one, it depends on what your brokers gonna do. Other folks around the |
| 425 | 01:13:52 --> 01:14:04 | world may not have that problem, okay, but if you're doing it as a position trade, you can do this, you can do five minis here, if that was your entry |
| 426 | 01:14:04 --> 01:14:08 | criteria, you can do two, |
| 427 | 01:14:09 --> 01:14:21 | two in one, it's still five, but you take two of the five that you initially enter here. And you take those off with a full profit on two of the minis at |
| 428 | 01:14:21 --> 01:14:32 | that low or below it. Okay, and then you'd have two in one remaining. Same thing here. If you're going to be doing three, you can do three individual entries, or |
| 429 | 01:14:32 --> 01:14:43 | three minutes individually. And that's how you beat the first in first out that type of stuff in the States. So, again, you would enter that and then have your |
| 430 | 01:14:43 --> 01:14:56 | limit orders down here. That's no problem then. Same thing here for this one. Okay, so you just got to do more work. Unfortunately, it's part of this game, so |
| 431 | 01:14:56 --> 01:15:03 | they keep making it harder because people like me keep getting smarter and sharing it with us. before. So 20 years from now, it's gonna be impossible. So |
| 432 | 01:15:03 --> 01:15:13 | make your money now. I'm just kidding, I don't think it's that impossible. But again, this shaded area here delineates the seasonal tendency. And we're kind of |
| 433 | 01:15:13 --> 01:15:24 | like near the end of it for the May. And it's also in the in the month and beautiful, beautiful, beautiful symmetry, beautiful depiction of price action, |
| 434 | 01:15:24 --> 01:15:34 | absolutely crushing it in terms of precision. And look how much drawdown, really look at this on your own data. Using these reference points framed in the |
| 435 | 01:15:34 --> 01:15:48 | context I've gave here, okay. Also, from a swing traders model, okay, we have the parent price swing here, low to high, this range. If this is the fulcrum |
| 436 | 01:15:48 --> 01:15:57 | point, price breaks down below it, take this range, and then projected down and you get that low, too. So it's a measured move. So everything about this market |
| 437 | 01:15:57 --> 01:16:10 | move is symmetrical. And absolutely beautiful. Beautiful, you should be spending at least two or three weeks, putting together notes around this particular move |
| 438 | 01:16:10 --> 01:16:20 | here. You should have every timeframe, all kinds of notes. I mean, you could literally study this until October, and not exhausted. It's such a beautiful |
| 439 | 01:16:21 --> 01:16:31 | fractal. And it's got so much more here. I can come back to this 10 years from now and show and show you just the start here, things that we haven't covered |
| 440 | 01:16:31 --> 01:16:40 | yet. You haven't you have no idea how much there is, there's so much more to it. But you have to start here. And I've said these types of things when we're in |
| 441 | 01:16:41 --> 01:16:47 | free tutorials. And I said this stuff, when you first started the mentorship in the first couple of months, you have to do this too. But look where you got in |
| 442 | 01:16:47 --> 01:16:56 | terms, where have you gotten right now you have taken yourself through your study, to a level of understanding that nobody else outside of our community |
| 443 | 01:16:56 --> 01:17:07 | has. Think about that. That's really exciting. I mean, it's really, it's exciting, because I get to relive it. But you have the ability to do all these |
| 444 | 01:17:07 --> 01:17:18 | wonderful things. And not experience all the problems and pitfalls that I endured along the way. You're getting all the good side. And I really, really, |
| 445 | 01:17:18 --> 01:17:29 | really want you to appreciate that because this cost me a lot. A lot. And I don't want this being tossed around. I don't want it being given away because |
| 446 | 01:17:29 --> 01:17:40 | you think you're the next. I don't know. It my work is not charity. Okay, it costs it's that it was a sacrifice for me to get this. Okay, so hopefully you |
| 447 | 01:17:40 --> 01:17:51 | found this lesson insightful gleaned more insight as to what leads to these types of setups. And if anything, remember, like I said, the beginning of video. |
| 448 | 01:17:53 --> 01:18:04 | When you first signed up with me, it took a lot of trust. And I can appreciate that, because I had bought things. And I paid other people to try to teach me |
| 449 | 01:18:04 --> 01:18:14 | things, not just in trading, but other things. And it was just not what was expected. Okay, it was not as though it was not delivered as described. Okay. |
| 450 | 01:18:15 --> 01:18:28 | The point is, you were told a year ago. Okay, this specific criteria. Now, it's one thing for me to get lucky once in a while. Okay, it's one thing for me to |
| 451 | 01:18:28 --> 01:18:39 | say, well, you know, I think Tuesday's gonna be a little weak, and it might do it 6060 70% of the time, okay. I'm not trading every Tuesday. With that mindset. |
| 452 | 01:18:39 --> 01:18:54 | I'm waiting for specific criteria to come in agreement with, then I'll look for that setup. But if the framework and all the things behind it aren't there. I'm |
| 453 | 01:18:54 --> 01:19:02 | not trading, I'll do something else. I have lots of things I can do. I can trade just intraday volatility looking for liquidity, I don't need any of the models |
| 454 | 01:19:02 --> 01:19:15 | to do that. I don't need a daily bias to do that either. You as an individual that's learning how to do this. You have to stay within the rules. Everything |
| 455 | 01:19:15 --> 01:19:24 | I've given you stay within those rules. Don't try to get creative. Don't try to take that stuff and and twist it around, say, Well, I think it would work better |
| 456 | 01:19:24 --> 01:19:33 | if I don't do that. Okay, there's plenty of opportunity for you to do that in the future. You're just going to start your growth. So remember, you trusted me |
| 457 | 01:19:35 --> 01:19:49 | to join and pay and you've been here and now you're a charter member. This model, I'm telling you, this is the one that makes you friggin rich. This is the |
| 458 | 01:19:49 --> 01:20:00 | one that everybody out there on the planet wants to know how to trade with. They just don't know what to look for. And they don't even know how to ask Ask for |
| 459 | 01:20:00 --> 01:20:08 | the information. But this is the one that if Larry Williams knew this one, this is the one that would keep him from having those years where the things he said |
| 460 | 01:20:08 --> 01:20:17 | was supposed to happen. It didn't happen, he would know which ones were going to happen. Every three months, he should be doing his mega pics, if he knew what he |
| 461 | 01:20:17 --> 01:20:29 | was doing. Now I'm saying that with a great deal respect, I'm saying his track record proves that his pics aren't always like that. Did demand destroy on |
| 462 | 01:20:29 --> 01:20:43 | Robins cut? Absolutely. One year 1987. If you study everything about that year, everything was in line for that type of move. Think about it. You all probably |
| 463 | 01:20:43 --> 01:20:52 | never did that. But I did that. And that's one of the things that I cracked. He purposely waited for that year, because everything was lined up. It's all one |
| 464 | 01:20:52 --> 01:21:03 | sided direction. Everything was moving in. It was clear that markets were in trending model. We don't really have a trending model. Until like right now, in |
| 465 | 01:21:03 --> 01:21:18 | cable. It's been choppy, it's been a mess. I think that if you sit back this weekend, while spending time with your family, I want you to reflect about why |
| 466 | 01:21:18 --> 01:21:30 | you studied under me. Okay. And I want you to think about what was those feelings you had? And what were the aspirations you had, when you first decided |
| 467 | 01:21:30 --> 01:21:43 | that you were going to give me your time. Because it's expensive to give anybody anything, you know, but time is the most expensive. You've given me years of |
| 468 | 01:21:43 --> 01:22:00 | time. And I believe that if you're honest with me, and yourself, when you sit back and look at these types of things, just this one lesson, just this one, you |
| 469 | 01:22:00 --> 01:22:13 | can do so well. unbelievably well. And it gives you a clear framework. There isn't a lot of things to worry about, there isn't a lot of things to get tripped |
| 470 | 01:22:13 --> 01:22:25 | up on. It's very, very binary. There is very clear filters. I just introduced it here. Where do you do your entering? Where is it limited to you can't do any |
| 471 | 01:22:25 --> 01:22:36 | more of it in how the pyramid now, also external entries. Outside of the original model, I've given you other ways to use with what I've already taught |
| 472 | 01:22:36 --> 01:22:45 | you. Plug and Play. Remember what I promised you, the models would be plug and play. You already know everything from the core content, all I'm telling you how |
| 473 | 01:22:45 --> 01:22:57 | to do is put those pieces together to get the portrait that you had in mind. So you understand from my examples, after I do them, if I point to something, I say |
| 474 | 01:22:57 --> 01:23:04 | this is gonna happen, then I engage with it, then I trade it. And you see the examples and the fruits of it on Twitter, like everybody else publicly. That's |
| 475 | 01:23:04 --> 01:23:11 | why I do it publicly. There's people out there to think they want to come in here, because I'm given 30 different signals every single week. I don't do that. |
| 476 | 01:23:11 --> 01:23:21 | And I'm staying honest. Because there's people out there in industry watch groups like CFTC sec, whatever it is, you know, people are watching me, okay, |
| 477 | 01:23:21 --> 01:23:30 | they believe me, they're watching me. And that's why I show all of my results on Twitter. Because there's really no reason for them to want to come into the |
| 478 | 01:23:30 --> 01:23:38 | mentorship because there's nothing, there's nothing actually happening. In addition to those examples, because those examples, the same ones I prompt you |
| 479 | 01:23:38 --> 01:23:51 | to look at, I tell you, the markets gonna go here or there, then I trade those directions in that bias using very, very small scale, fair value gaps, optimal |
| 480 | 01:23:51 --> 01:24:00 | trade entries and runs on liquidity. I'm not using everything you've been taught. But PILT still people still trying to get in here. Because they think |
| 481 | 01:24:00 --> 01:24:08 | there's something else. And some of you also are waiting for model number five, and other group waiting on model number 12 |
| 482 | 01:24:10 --> 01:24:23 | When you had beautiful models already laid in your hands. So this weekend, I want you to think, think about why you signed up with me. Why even given me any |
| 483 | 01:24:23 --> 01:24:36 | of your time and consideration. Have you received from me what you hooked? And if you don't believe you have, you need to do some soul searching and really |
| 484 | 01:24:36 --> 01:24:43 | think about what it is that you thought you were going to get here. Because I'm telling you what the markets are doing every single weekend it happens. I've |
| 485 | 01:24:43 --> 01:24:55 | taught you how to engage with it. And it keeps on happening. I execute with it every single week. How many losing trades have you seen me do Oh show me on my |
| 486 | 01:24:55 --> 01:25:05 | effects book model. I'm doing way better than that. I'm telling you Have tomorrow's newspaper headlines before it happens I'm telling you the week in |
| 487 | 01:25:05 --> 01:25:15 | advance before it happens and model number four I'm telling you a year ahead arguably you can't |