ICT Charter PAM 4 - Position Trading
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-01-12 10:33
Outline
00:04 - Quarterly shifts and seasonal tendencies in position trading.
- ICT explains Price Action Model 4, position trading with quarterly shifts and seasonal tendencies.
01:41 - Seasonal trading strategies using futures contracts.
- Analyzes seasonal tendencies and liquidity pool data to inform trading decisions.
- ICT identifies bullish seasonal tendency in British pounds for May, with a focus on commercial activity in the last week of April.
05:25 - Seasonal tendencies in currency trading.
- Analyzing six months of data, the speaker identifies a bearish seasonal tendency for the British pound in May, with a focus on commercial traders' net short positions.
07:31 - Trading strategies using SMT divergence.
- Trader seeks to profit from monthly range in Euro dollar, targeting old high from January 2018.
- ICT teaches a long-term trading strategy using open prices and SMT divergence.
10:53 - Using liquidity-based concepts for trading.
- ICT explains how to use liquidity-based concepts to identify potential trading opportunities, using the PD rate matrix and daily chart analysis.
- ICT highlights the importance of blending time and price analysis, and provides examples of how to do this using seasonal tendencies and discount arrays.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:04 --> 00:00:13 | ICT: Gibbs Welcome back. This is price action model number four position trading. And this is the entity mentorship quarterly shifts and seasonal |
| 2 | 00:00:13 --> 00:00:14 | tendencies |
| 3 | 00:00:22 --> 00:00:31 | Okay, ICT Price Action Model number four, position trading quarterly shifts and seasonal tendencies. Now for our stage for this model is going to be a quarterly |
| 4 | 00:00:31 --> 00:00:42 | shift for anticipating the effects of a quarterly shift in majors overlapping with a seasonal tendency, our setup is going to be a combination of SMT |
| 5 | 00:00:42 --> 00:01:00 | divergence and a kimono traitors hedging program. And our pattern is going to be external range liquidity. Okay, the conceptual idea, again, this is what I see |
| 6 | 00:01:00 --> 00:01:12 | internally, how I internalize the setup, the market moves, the whole process for this model is We obviously look for an up to date range of 20 to 40 or 60 days |
| 7 | 00:01:13 --> 00:01:24 | on the daily chart, the commitment of traders net position on the commercials are going to show a net position over the last six months look back. And on the |
| 8 | 00:01:24 --> 00:01:36 | daily chart, we were looking for an old hide, we ran out with a higher high and at the same time SMT divergence forming and this could be a correlated SMT or |
| 9 | 00:01:36 --> 00:01:49 | could be a US DX SMT divergence. And we're coupling that with now, the importance of the seasonal tendency. Everything for this model, obviously you |
| 10 | 00:01:49 --> 00:02:06 | can find in the January 2017 content on long term position trading. And we're gonna be anticipating a monthly candle that will be bearish. Everything is |
| 11 | 00:02:06 --> 00:02:15 | reversed. Obviously for bullish scenarios, I'm throwing this in there. So you can apply it to a seasonal tendency that's bullish. And again, everything here |
| 12 | 00:02:15 --> 00:02:25 | What does he's all tendency, if the data range of 2040 or 60 on the daily chart, targeting a liquidity pool. In this case, we're gonna be looking for an old low |
| 13 | 00:02:25 --> 00:02:36 | being taken out the lower mobian in price co T has the program of the commercials are net bullish or net long. In the last six months, we're getting |
| 14 | 00:02:36 --> 00:02:44 | that total range anticipating a bullish monthly range expansion and an s&p Divergence either USD X or correlated pair |
| 15 | 00:02:51 --> 00:03:05 | Okay, again, we're focusing on the monthly range as our primary driver, if you will, we're gonna be looking for buys that liquidity pool equal highs on a daily |
| 16 | 00:03:06 --> 00:03:15 | when we're bullish, coupling this idea or model with a bullish seasonal tendency with bullish net long positions while the commercials but on this example we're |
| 17 | 00:03:15 --> 00:03:26 | focusing on a bearish seasonal tendency. So when we're looking at the monthly range seen with the expectation of equal lows on the daily for a sell stop |
| 18 | 00:03:26 --> 00:03:39 | liquidity pool being our objective or pdra. Okay, for this model, we're gonna be using the British pound. And obviously, it's a seasonal tendency, you guys saw |
| 19 | 00:03:39 --> 00:03:53 | this in the January 2017 content, long term position trading. Now once you look at this chart, okay, and there is a highly highly bullish scenario or seasonal |
| 20 | 00:03:53 --> 00:04:06 | tendency to occur in the beginning of March mid March, and running up into the May highs and not electing to use that we'll come back to that type of seasonal |
| 21 | 00:04:06 --> 00:04:15 | tendency when we go back into position trading for another opposites trading model. For this one, position trading can be several weeks long to several |
| 22 | 00:04:15 --> 00:04:28 | months. So I want to give you the shorter side of it. And we're gonna focus on the seasonal tendency in the last week or so of April going down into the June |
| 23 | 00:04:28 --> 00:04:38 | lows. You can see that here. Okay, so primarily the month of May is bearish but that seasonal tendency can kick in a little bit early, as you can see in the |
| 24 | 00:04:38 --> 00:04:51 | seasonal tendency graph here. Alright, so we're looking at the British pounds as the futures contract and the symbol is B six M one eight. You can find that on |
| 25 | 00:04:51 --> 00:05:05 | bar chart.com. I uploaded the CRT, remember traders. Now this is an interactive chart You can use that on there feature. And I want you to take a look at the |
| 26 | 00:05:05 --> 00:05:15 | standard CRT line chart here, the red line, that's going to be the commercials, that's what we're focusing on primarily. The other two, which is small specs and |
| 27 | 00:05:16 --> 00:05:30 | music. Publishers, we're not interested in those. So again, our focus is going to be on now that black line that was read, okay. And what I'm doing here is my |
| 28 | 00:05:31 --> 00:05:45 | hedging program as taught in the mentorship. And we're looking back six months. Okay, so using the criteria that may is bearish. We go back as late as November |
| 29 | 00:05:46 --> 00:06:01 | to the previous year. So by having that, we'll have an expectation of seeing a bearish scenario, the last week or so of April, which is reasonable, based on |
| 30 | 00:06:01 --> 00:06:10 | the seasonal tendency, and because we know the seasonal tendencies are not locked to the actual calendar day. It's a shift of seasonal impact. So again, I |
| 31 | 00:06:10 --> 00:06:22 | like to look at that mid April, to the second week of June. That's the duration I like to have. But you can be a stickler and say I'm gonna only trade like the |
| 32 | 00:06:22 --> 00:06:29 | last week of April with this seasonal tendency. Anticipating lower prices, that's fine. But the entire month of May you want to be expecting lower prices |
| 33 | 00:06:29 --> 00:06:43 | for British pounds. You see that the month of April, going into May we have a heavy net short position by commercials by my co2 hedging program application. |
| 34 | 00:06:44 --> 00:06:55 | Again, this is taught in the mentorship. So the seasonal high last six months and the seasonal, low in the last six months is plenty here. And notice how |
| 35 | 00:06:55 --> 00:07:08 | perfectly symmetrical the market becomes when you see it like this. Okay, so what's the logic behind this model, the seasonal tendency for the pound sterling |
| 36 | 00:07:08 --> 00:07:16 | is bearish in the month of May. So we're gonna be looking for a CMT hedging program to reflect an excessive net short holding by the commercial traders, |
| 37 | 00:07:17 --> 00:07:29 | trading on the anticipation of a quarterly shift in the majors. So when GBP USD or cable runs an old high going into last week or last week of April, going into |
| 38 | 00:07:29 --> 00:07:41 | May. And it's inside a 24 year 60 day if to daily range looking back for an Ohio. And there's an SMT divergence between either the dollar index or a |
| 39 | 00:07:41 --> 00:07:50 | correlated pair like the dollar versus the euro game, this case is the Euro dollar or five as we call it, really looking to short the open of the last up |
| 40 | 00:07:50 --> 00:07:57 | close candle on a stop. And again, if I'm honest in the January content of 2017, position trading |
| 41 | 00:08:03 --> 00:08:14 | Okay, and obviously, as I mentioned earlier, the month range of May, the calendar month is typically bearish. Okay, so when it's bearish, we are likely |
| 42 | 00:08:14 --> 00:08:23 | to see a strong impulse move lower inside that monthly range or candle. Therefore, weeks are ranges typically. And we're gonna be seeking the range |
| 43 | 00:08:23 --> 00:08:32 | inside that monthly range before the candle completes on a new monthly range beginning. That is to say that we want one or more of the four weeks that |
| 44 | 00:08:32 --> 00:08:34 | construct a monthly range to profit. |
| 45 | 00:08:39 --> 00:08:55 | Okay, as you see here, we have an old high using the EPA data ranges, we can find that old high here in the January 2018 period going into a rally up into |
| 46 | 00:08:55 --> 00:09:04 | that old high if it's broken, oh, as there's trade through it by one pip. If it does that, while the criteria, which is the orange shaded area, that's the |
| 47 | 00:09:04 --> 00:09:13 | midpoint of April, I'd like to define it as dissipating so weakness to come into it seasonally. So I want to see a turtle soup such type scenario or a run on |
| 48 | 00:09:13 --> 00:09:23 | external range liquidity. But I want to be able to trade this from a long term position, and also teach it to you all. So you don't have to use intraday |
| 49 | 00:09:23 --> 00:09:36 | trading concepts. Using the last up close candles open, we can sell on a stock. So all you have to do is look at the previous day and see what the open is. And |
| 50 | 00:09:36 --> 00:09:44 | if we run that previous old high, just look for the last closed candle. You all know what that is in terms of a bearish order block. In this case, we're |
| 51 | 00:09:44 --> 00:09:54 | actually going to use the open to sell our stop. So in our demo account, we'll place a sell stop at that opening price. So if price ever trades down to that |
| 52 | 00:09:54 --> 00:10:00 | level, it's going to be moving in our direction. We don't need to get up and look at the kill zones. We don't need to worry about what to do markets doing on |
| 53 | 00:10:00 --> 00:10:14 | a minute by minute basis. Eventually, the market does make a higher high than that old January high. And it does so by forming an SMD divergence against the |
| 54 | 00:10:14 --> 00:10:25 | dollar index. So the dollar was unable to make a lower low, as you would expect it to do when the cable makes a higher high, says SMT divergence or US DX SMT |
| 55 | 00:10:25 --> 00:10:40 | divergence. And it's occurring rate at debt, seasonal tendency. So now we have the 142 48 short entry, that would be our price to get filled on stock price |
| 56 | 00:10:40 --> 00:10:49 | trades through that you would be filled short, your stock goes to the high in this case would be a 130 pip stop now know some of you, you're probably |
| 57 | 00:10:49 --> 00:10:57 | thinking, well, it's way too much. We're trading a long term position trade. Okay, so we're gonna be using the same liquidity based concepts, looking at old |
| 58 | 00:10:57 --> 00:11:10 | lows as our discount PD array. So using the PD rate matrix, using a daily chart, expecting the monthly to be the expansion range, we're gonna be looking for |
| 59 | 00:11:10 --> 00:11:23 | these two levels here. And now think about it. This is exactly what I've showed live each week calling these levels in on did was use this model here. So price |
| 60 | 00:11:23 --> 00:11:39 | trades down, again, aren't 30 pips is our stop or risk and targeting our first run, that although there is five, the one using a daily chart. So you can see |
| 61 | 00:11:39 --> 00:11:52 | with five to one reward, the risk is so possible, and you don't need to be day trading to get it. And notice the nice, deep decline all through the seasonal |
| 62 | 00:11:52 --> 00:12:03 | tendency that's shaded here. And ultimately trading down to eight to one reward the risk. And what we do is we look for the discount arrays. In this case, as I |
| 63 | 00:12:03 --> 00:12:12 | indicated for the last several months that we will be expecting these lows to be taken out that's where liquidity was resting. But until we get this seasonal |
| 64 | 00:12:12 --> 00:12:25 | tendency overlapping with CBT and SMT divergence driving that we can see a heavy distribution cycle coming in or sub program. And we look for the discount arrays |
| 65 | 00:12:26 --> 00:12:34 | to overlay with the seasonal seasonal tendency. So in other words, if there was more time and a seasonal tendency, which I think we're kind of like getting |
| 66 | 00:12:34 --> 00:12:46 | close to the very end of it now, we can anticipate it to keep going lower. So you're blending time and price. So if we would have taken a lot longer and in |
| 67 | 00:12:46 --> 00:12:54 | terms of time and shoot it down to 137 12. And say it would be the first week of June at the time, then I would think that would probably be the end of the major |
| 68 | 00:12:54 --> 00:13:03 | move. Okay, but because we have more time and seasonal tendency, as indicated by that shaded area at the bottom of the chart that's orange time and price met, |
| 69 | 00:13:04 --> 00:13:13 | terminus, which is to sell stops and the length of the seasonal tendency going into June. So if we found this insightful, again, we'll have examples. You can |
| 70 | 00:13:13 --> 00:13:21 | go back and study the charts. I'm going to give you an opportunity to do so in the forum for this particular model and also for the previous models and their |
| 71 | 00:13:21 --> 00:13:30 | remaining models that will be taught in the 12 models I'm going to give you for the post mentorship content, and I'll talk to you next time. I wish you good |
| 72 | 00:13:30 --> 00:13:31 | luck and good trading |