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ICT Charter PAM 3 - Swing Trading and Amplified Lecture

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-01-06 07:12

Outline

00:00 - A swing trading model using liquidity pools and CO2 hedging program.

- ICT focuses on attacking daily liquidity pools with swing trading model.
- ICT explains a trading model based on analyzing the Commitment of Traders report data for commercial traders, with a bullish commercial vibe program indicated by a high range and a commercial sell model indicated by a low range.
- The model involves using a daily liquidity pool on the daily chart and entering trades based on the optimal trade entry, with the highest high and lowest low of the last 12 months used to determine the range for analysis.

05:23 - A trading model using monthly charts and liquidity pools.

- ICT: Anticipates monthly candle expansion down, targeting liquidity pool near equal lows or ideal intermediate term highs.
- ICT: Reverses concept, targeting monthly candle expansion higher if commercials are net buyers in last 12 months, daily chart shows liquidity pool resting above equal highs or ideal intermediate term highs.
- ICT is analyzing the Canadian dollar futures contract, focusing on equal lows or highs within the monthly range for a potential trading setup.
- The model involves identifying a monthly range, looking for a bullish or bearish setup within that range, and then seeking equal lows or highs on the daily chart.

11:44 - Trading setup using Fibonacci levels and optimal trade entry.

- ICT is looking to enter a trade based on a potential continuation pattern, anticipating a move to complete or a new setup to start 20 days after the beginning of the trading month.
- The optimal trade entry is when price trades down into the entry after making an initial rally higher, taking out an initial swing low at the 70.5 level or the OTE level in the FIB.
- ICT explains how to fine-tune a swing trade setup using hourly charts and liquidity pools.
- Reducing risk by using a stop loss below the afternoon low or Monday of the particular week.

17:29 - Fibonacci levels and scaling in swing trading.

- ICT explains negative numbers on a dollar CAD chart and how to use them for trading.
- ICT explains how to use Fibonacci levels and negative numbers to identify potential trading opportunities.
- ICT demonstrates how to scale into a trade by taking profits at the second Fibonacci level and adding to the position if the trade continues to move in the desired direction.

21:58 - Swing trading strategies and analysis.

- ICT emphasizes the importance of understanding the different trading styles and models, including swing trading, short-term intraday trading, and scalping, and how they can complement each other.
- ICT prefers to focus on the daily chart for larger moves, but also uses intraday components and concepts to reduce risk.
- The speaker discusses trading based on monthly candles, focusing on capturing one week of the month with a swing trade.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of analyzing the monthly chart to predict price movements and capitalize on liquidity displacement.

27:29 - Swing trading and market analysis.

- ICT emphasizes the importance of analyzing the monthly candle for directional bias in swing trading.
- In the Canadian dollar futures market, bearish prices indicate a potential decrease in the dollar CAD pair.
- The speaker discusses the Commitment of Traders (COT) data analysis, specifically the large speculators, small speculators, and commercials, and how to use the hedging program to identify market trends.
- The speaker shows an example of how to use the COT data to identify a bullish trend in the market, using the zero basis line and the last 12 months of data.

32:43 - Using a unique approach to analyze commercials' hedging program.

- Analyzes audio transcript to identify unique perspective for defining overbought/oversold levels in markets.
- ICT uses a unique method to analyze the CO2 data, which involves drawing rectangles and counting boxes to determine the range of values.
- By interpreting the data in this way, ICT can identify the midpoint of the range and determine that the hedging program is actually long, despite traditional analysis showing a net long position.

37:34 - Trading Canadian dollar futures using order blocks.

- ICT highlights the importance of understanding institutional order flow and how it can be used to identify potential trading opportunities.
- ICT demonstrates how to use order blocks and put options to profit from a potential shift in sentiment among commercials and retail traders.
- The speaker anticipates a bullish order block in the dollar CAD pair from October to December, based on the bearish Canadian futures and a bullish candle on the monthly chart.
- The speaker identifies an order block that extends from September to October, with the expectation of an up candle in October.

43:23 - Technical analysis and market movement.

- Analyzing monthly and weekly charts reveals bullish and bearish signals for the Canadian dollar.
- ICT provides detailed and confident information, making swing trades easier with backtesting and data collection.

47:26 - Trading dollar CAD using equal highs.

- ICT is analyzing a chart and identifying an area with relative equal highs, which could be a potential buying opportunity.
- ICT is looking for a down close candle to confirm the buy signal, and the target is an initial 10-15% move higher.
- Trader identifies potential swing trade opportunity in Canadian futures, targeting 133 85 with a stop at 131 26.

52:51 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.

- Trader advises using intraday concepts to reduce risk and leverage more, but focuses on longer-term perspective.
- ICT identifies a liquidity pool at the 133.85 target, based on equal highs and lows on the 4-hour chart.
- ICT looks for stops outside the chart, in the form of old highs and lows, to determine where liquidity is likely to rest.
- ICT identifies and attacks the "sick cow" in the market, selling short when the herd is moving higher.

59:31 - Technical analysis and trading strategies.

- The speaker identifies a potential trading opportunity in the cryptocurrency market, highlighting a busy buyside imbalance and a fair value gap.
- The speaker explains that retail traders may be attracted to the 123 Drive pattern, but institutional order flow is calling for higher prices, creating a potential liquidity pool.
- ICT analyzes a weekly chart and identifies equal highs at 135.61, with a potential target of 136.03.
- ICT suggests paper trading longs until reaching equal highs and testing the level of 136.03.

Transcription

1 00:00:00 --> 00:00:11 ICT: The concepts and models that I'm going to be providing, starting with this one here, three, all about two to 12. One will be in this format, it's going to
2 00:00:11 --> 00:00:20 be relying heavily on your understanding of what you've already learned in the mentorship. I'm not rehashing everything, I'm not spelling it out to the last
3 00:00:20 --> 00:00:31 letter. Originally, I wanted to do that. But just look around on Twitter and on on social media, and YouTube, you can see there's a lot of folks now in the
4 00:00:31 --> 00:00:45 business of teaching my stuff. So whether they're using it under the guise of the free content, or worse, you know, what's coming from the mentorship. I got
5 00:00:45 --> 00:00:58 six new people, I got to start tracking. And it's just become me. disheartening, actually, because, yeah, I knew this was gonna happen. I mean, everybody knew
6 00:00:58 --> 00:01:10 what's going to happen, but I'm not going to provide a PDF and a video where they can just, you know, mimic that and be in business, you know, teaching, you
7 00:01:10 --> 00:01:24 know, one, one model are more than more than that. So this model will be teaching, the swing trading, ICT approach or one method of doing so. And its
8 00:01:24 --> 00:01:36 primary focus is going to be attacking daily liquidity pools. Okay, so that's going to be the draw that we're using for this model. And, as you'll see, with
9 00:01:36 --> 00:01:49 the remainder of the models that's going to be shared. We're focusing again, on one specific criteria as our justification, if you will, for looking for a
10 00:01:49 --> 00:01:58 setup. And then we're going to look for the actual ingredients that go behind the scenes that make that setup viable. Okay, so let's continue on.
11 00:02:06 --> 00:02:16 Okay, so we're looking at the swing trading model, again, draw on liquidity, what we're anticipating in terms of why the price should be moving in a
12 00:02:16 --> 00:02:27 direction, one sided, higher or lower, it's going to be based on daily liquidity pools, okay, but the stage is going to be set for that whole business, okay,
13 00:02:27 --> 00:02:37 because there's going to be liquidity polls always in the chart, but the underlying condition that sets up the setup is the stage. Okay, next stage is
14 00:02:37 --> 00:02:47 going to be the co2 hedging program. Okay, so what we're looking at the last 12 months of Commitment of Traders report data on just commercial traders only
15 00:02:47 --> 00:02:55 getting as high as high and as low as low in terms of their net position, dividing that range in half, if it's above the midpoint of it, we're gonna be
16 00:02:55 --> 00:03:07 looking at that as a bullish commercial vibe program. And or, if it's below that midpoint of that last one month range, we will be assuming that is a commercial
17 00:03:08 --> 00:03:21 sell model. Okay, if we have that stage, and we have a daily liquidity pool on the daily chart, okay, we're gonna be looking at that as our setup. And our
18 00:03:21 --> 00:03:25 entry pattern to trade this model is going to be the optimal trade entry.
19 00:03:31 --> 00:03:45 Okay, so now, this is what I'm bringing in now, because this, for the lack of better terms here, it's going to accomplish the method. But if I shared this,
20 00:03:46 --> 00:03:58 for instance, on Twitter, I'm confident that this would not mean very much to the lay audience. Now, for a person has gone through all 12 months of
21 00:03:58 --> 00:04:08 mentorships and studied the content. If you look at this, as I explain it, you'll know exactly where to go into the mentorship content and dig up more
22 00:04:08 --> 00:04:22 information on how those specific components are amplified by using this whole concept. Now, this is a conceptual idea shown in a graphic form. So in other
23 00:04:22 --> 00:04:33 words, this is the entire model shown in picture form. Okay, so when you think of this trading model, this is how I interpret it, okay, this is how I
24 00:04:33 --> 00:04:43 internalize it, this is how I see it in my head and how I go into the price action, the hunt the setups itself, okay, so along the top, you can see it's the
25 00:04:43 --> 00:04:54 co2 hedge program, and I'm giving you a graphic depiction of 12 months. So in other words, if today we were looking at a particular market, and this is what
26 00:04:54 --> 00:05:08 we would see the highest high and the lowest low the range, if it has broken In the previous blow in the last 12 months, then obviously we extend the range to
27 00:05:08 --> 00:05:20 the lowest point that has most recently been created. So that would be seen in this example here something that is actual bonus because I didn't mention it too
28 00:05:20 --> 00:05:26 much during the mentorship because people were coming and going. And I didn't want to give a lot of information out for people just gonna hang around for one
29 00:05:26 --> 00:05:38 or two months in the latter stages and then leave. So when we have our co2 hedge program, okay, so we've modified the co2 net traders position chart, as taught
30 00:05:38 --> 00:05:55 in the mentorship. If it's showing that the commercials are bearish relative to that concept, and the daily chart shows a liquidity pool Nords equal lows or a
31 00:05:55 --> 00:06:09 ideal load, it would have a lot of Sell Stop liquidity below it. At that criteria is there, we would hunt optimal trade entries to go short, targeting a
32 00:06:09 --> 00:06:21 run on low sell stops. Now the focus is we're going to be anticipating the monthly chart or the monthly range to provide us the swing model. Okay, so the
33 00:06:21 --> 00:06:33 timeframe we're using to facilitate the trade is on a monthly chart. So the candle that's being depicted here, we're anticipating the down movement of a
34 00:06:33 --> 00:06:44 monthly candle. While this candle shows it closing near the low, we do not require it to close down there, we just want the range to expand down. Also
35 00:06:44 --> 00:06:55 notice that at the end and a new beginning of a new month, we're using the EPA data ranges a lot of a lot of flack has been said about this and it's a simply a
36 00:06:55 --> 00:07:04 measure of going back the last 20 days the last 40 days or last 60 days. And always what's the price action in the last three months or quarterly effect?
37 00:07:05 --> 00:07:14 Looking back at either one of those intervals, if we see a liquidity pool, that's the one we're gonna be targeting, if this criteria with the co2 hedge
38 00:07:14 --> 00:07:28 program is in effect. Okay, so let's move on. Now, obviously, everything can be reversed here is is the concept in graphic form just reversed. If the co2 hedge
39 00:07:28 --> 00:07:41 program is showing in the last 12 months commercials are a net buyer. And the price action on a daily chart shows a equal high or a very clear, intermediate
40 00:07:41 --> 00:07:51 term high whereby stocks we'll be resting for a liquidity pool, we will be targeting that. And we'll be looking back 20 To 40 to 60 days from the new month
41 00:07:51 --> 00:08:00 start. And we reframing that as our context for the trade. But again, the timeframe we're focusing on is we're looking for the monthly candle to expand
42 00:08:00 --> 00:08:10 higher in this in this condition here. Obviously, you can see when the CRT data for the commercials if it's showing them as a net buyer in the criteria isn't
43 00:08:10 --> 00:08:18 forced with the daily chart showing a liquidity pool resting above equal highs or an ideal intermediate term high, we will be looking for that as our draw on
44 00:08:18 --> 00:08:29 liquidity. Again, we do not require the monthly candle to close near the tie, we just want the range to expand to allow us an opportunity to find a setup to be
45 00:08:29 --> 00:08:30 profitable.
46 00:08:36 --> 00:08:48 Okay, and again, this is the monthly range, we're gonna be looking for the market to expand up on bullish months to a buy stop liquidity pool and or run
47 00:08:48 --> 00:08:58 equal highs on the daily chart. And for the monthly range when bearish, we're gonna be looking for a run to equal lows on the daily chart and the Sell Stop
48 00:08:58 --> 00:09:11 liquidity pool resting below an old low Okay, so this is what we have here. Our example for this model is going to be on the Canadian dollar. You'll remember
49 00:09:11 --> 00:09:21 this actually because we covered it during public analysis really I did it all on Twitter and everything's been shared there, you can still go back and look at
50 00:09:21 --> 00:09:30 it. We really track this one online publicly. So again, this is Canadian dollar. So when we're looking at the forex market, everything has to be reversed because
51 00:09:30 --> 00:09:38 the payer that's associated for Canadian dollar that we trade off against the dollar is dollar CAD. So everything we see in the futures contract, which has
52 00:09:38 --> 00:09:48 been shown here has to be reversed because it's an inverse relationship when it's in the forex pair dollar CAD. Okay, the arrows is depicting the point at
53 00:09:48 --> 00:09:58 which we're focusing on for the setup. And I'm giving you the red line here highlighted to give us the entire total range of the last 12 months at the time
54 00:09:58 --> 00:10:11 of that arrow. Okay. As you can see, we're below the midpoint. So commercials are in a net short position relative to the 12 month range. So we would be
55 00:10:11 --> 00:10:28 looking for a liquidity pool in the form of equal lows on the Canadian dollar futures contract, or equal highs for the dollar CAD pair. Okay, so the logic
56 00:10:28 --> 00:10:38 behind this is the monthly range when it's bullish, we'll likely see a strong impulsive, move higher. And inside that monthly range or candle, there are
57 00:10:38 --> 00:10:47 typically four weekly ranges or candles, we're going to be seeking the range inside the monthly range before the candle completes, and the new monthly range
58 00:10:47 --> 00:10:59 begins. That is to say we want one or more the four weeks that construct a monthly range to profit. Can you see the chart here, that little tiny candle in
59 00:10:59 --> 00:11:09 here, it's been delineated with the arrows. That's all the setup is focusing on. For this particular example here. Now, obviously, everyone wants to see the big
60 00:11:09 --> 00:11:17 move off this monthly chart. And that's an entirely different type of setup, I'm giving you a model here, you don't need the biggest moves. Okay. And you'll see
61 00:11:17 --> 00:11:30 that this is actually very sufficient. Zooming in on a weekly chart, this is the entire move that will be captured with this model, in hindsight as an example.
62 00:11:30 --> 00:11:42 But again, everything has been mentioned in Twitter. And on a daily chart, this is the move that it shows relative to the pattern and model that we're teaching
63 00:11:42 --> 00:11:52 here. And we're going to expand this a little bit bigger. What we're looking at is that move there. Now, you're probably saying, Well, why couldn't this just be
64 00:11:53 --> 00:12:03 a short term trade? Or why can't it be a one shot one kill, it can and like I said, in the mentorship, a lot of the setups can at times overlap, but we don't
65 00:12:03 --> 00:12:13 know if it's going to continue higher or lower when we're taking the trades. So we're just framing the idea here to give us the context to work with in terms of
66 00:12:13 --> 00:12:28 a consistent model. Okay, you can see here the after data range, Newmont starting here, march 1 2018, we're looking back 60 days, if the day to look back
67 00:12:28 --> 00:12:39 takes us back to those equal highs. And then we have a 20 to cast forward. So we're anticipating a potential move to complete and or a new setup to start 20
68 00:12:39 --> 00:12:51 days after the beginning of the trading month is March 1. Okay, you can see the equal highs, which is a boss that liquidity pool. Now price had already ran
69 00:12:51 --> 00:13:01 initially there and started to sell off. But we're looking at it as a potential continuation and anticipating it to wipe out a little bit more that liquidity
70 00:13:01 --> 00:13:15 goes deeper into that. So this is going to be our optimal trade entry. Now notice I'm showing here March 1. And now think of it like we teach the intraday
71 00:13:15 --> 00:13:28 patterns where we have a Judas swing, there is a kind of like a pseudo Judas swing here on the monthly. Okay, if you look at the opening price, on March 1,
72 00:13:28 --> 00:13:37 price comes back down after initially rallying. We don't want to see that or focusing on movements at the open at the beginning of the month or below it.
73 00:13:38 --> 00:13:47 Okay, so when price trades down below that opening price are never quite what the question is going to be as what's the opening price. As soon as we start a
74 00:13:47 --> 00:13:57 new month at the beginning of the Asian session, first trading day of the month. That's the opening price. Okay, we'll use that one. And if you want to get
75 00:13:57 --> 00:14:08 fancy, you can use the opening price at midnight on the first trading day of the new month. I use both of those, and I'll refer to it as the first week of
76 00:14:08 --> 00:14:19 trading transpires. But price after making an initial rally higher trades down into the optimal trade entry, providing opportunity to buy. And also notice it
77 00:14:19 --> 00:14:29 takes out at initial swing low that you can see right at the 70.5 level or the ote level in the FIB it trades just below that a little bit and then that's
78 00:14:29 --> 00:14:38 that's the bar. Okay, that's your that's the pattern. That's the setup you're looking for. Now, this is a four hour chart, you don't need to go anything lower
79 00:14:38 --> 00:14:44 than that, but I'm going to show you how you can fine tune it. If you want to get a tighter stop in this. Obviously you knew what your stock also is going to
80 00:14:44 --> 00:14:54 have to be by using the mentorship and using optimal trade entry and all the stop loss placement things. I'm not going to include all that here because that
81 00:14:54 --> 00:15:02 to do that. I'm basically giving you an entire mentorship in one video and I'm not doing that for people that are Are you sharing information now, not making
82 00:15:02 --> 00:15:10 it easy for them? Let's put it that way. But if you studied you know the things in the mentorship, you already know where to find them because of the topic
83 00:15:10 --> 00:15:19 titles, obviously, it makes it a lot easier. Now you're probably asking yourself, Why am I using that anchor point for the FIB, or we're going to drop
84 00:15:19 --> 00:15:28 down into the hourly chart, and you'll see why you can clearly see that the swing low, all I did was use the transition from a four hour down to an hourly
85 00:15:28 --> 00:15:36 chart. And you can see that fib is overlaid here. And you can see a very clear swing down into the optimal trade entry. And now we're including the hourly
86 00:15:36 --> 00:15:44 because it's going to be day of week. So we know if we're buying, okay, and we're swing trading, we want to be doing what we're trying to buy on a Monday,
87 00:15:44 --> 00:15:50 Tuesday or Wednesday. If we're selling short, and we're bearish, what are we going to be doing? Looking to sell short on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday? Okay,
88 00:15:50 --> 00:16:01 and the kill zones? are a London Open and or New York open primarily. Okay, so now what if you want to reduce the amount of risk, you don't want to take that
89 00:16:01 --> 00:16:11 that entry at the optimal trade entry and have to use a stop loss, you know, down at below that 127 40 level? That's a pretty big, pretty stop pretty big
90 00:16:11 --> 00:16:20 stop loss in some day traders minds are certainly a scalper Do you think that's incredibly too large, I can't do that. If you take the optimal trade entry, it
91 00:16:20 --> 00:16:34 is here from the afternoon, low on that Monday, and expand it up into the initial high of the day on Tuesday ready for the big move up. And rally, you'll
92 00:16:34 --> 00:16:44 see that as a optimal trade entry there. And you can use a stop loss just below the afternoon low or Monday of that particular week. So you can reduce the
93 00:16:44 --> 00:16:56 amount of risk and still be able to take this as a swing trade. Okay, singular, a much larger are multiple for this particular setup. Now notice that also on
94 00:16:56 --> 00:17:06 the our chart, you can see that there is a liquidity pool with the previous week, March 5, sixth and seventh, we have equal highs there. That's what we're
95 00:17:06 --> 00:17:19 targeting. That's a daily liquidity pool. And it's also an overlap of the two fibs. Notice what happens here, we see that target one line on the initial fib,
96 00:17:20 --> 00:17:32 on the larger price Swing, and a another fib level from the shorter price swing. And you probably asked him what's all those extra lines up there? Okay, I want
97 00:17:32 --> 00:17:39 you to write this down your notepad, okay, I'm not providing on the screen, because I don't want people just having access to a PDF, if you're gonna steal
98 00:17:39 --> 00:17:55 my stuff, and in Unit share it, you're gonna have to work for it too. So the levels I have on here for the fib is negative 27, negative 68, negative 127,
99 00:17:56 --> 00:17:58 negative 168.
100 00:18:00 --> 00:18:18 To even, okay, 2.0, then 2.27, they're all these are all negative numbers. And then negative 268, negative three, negative three, decimal point two, seven,
101 00:18:19 --> 00:18:35 negative three decimal points, six, eight, negative 4.0, negative 4.27, negative 4.68, and negative 5.0. Okay, and you'll get these lines on your dollar CAD
102 00:18:35 --> 00:18:44 chart. And notice that there's a connection or overlapping of those two levels there, that would be your target. Now you do not get that last little piece
103 00:18:44 --> 00:18:52 movement up, but it's not necessary. Okay. And you can see what happened immediately after that, it really falls out of bed and comes back down to your
104 00:18:52 --> 00:19:03 original optimal trade entry. Now, your risk on the trade is completely up to you. And that's how I'm gonna be teaching the rest of these concepts because we
105 00:19:03 --> 00:19:15 talked about risk management. We talked about leveraging the mentorship, we know where the stops should be. And now looking at target two, which is the twin
106 00:19:15 --> 00:19:24 trade, okay, on the second fit, that target two would be your first scaling. So you're going to take something out, you would take something there, and then you
107 00:19:24 --> 00:19:37 would do it at every four incremental number. In other words, you would take some at like 2.0, negative 2.0 on the Fed negative 3.0 on the Fed negative 4.0
108 00:19:37 --> 00:19:50 on the Fed. Or if you want to go a little bit more and try to get a little bit more juice out of the lemon, you can use the 3.27 data awk and negative numbers.
109 00:19:51 --> 00:20:00 The reason why it's a negative number is because as the Fed goes higher, notice the lowest number is 100. So as we go higher than zero dropping in number. So
110 00:20:00 --> 00:20:11 once we get to that top line, it's the zero line and fib. So anything higher than that has to be a negative number. So you can do like negative 2.27. And
111 00:20:11 --> 00:20:20 then if it goes to negative 3.27, you can take something off there. All that's customizable, you can do all those types of things yourself. But personally, you
112 00:20:20 --> 00:20:29 don't want to just take it at the fib level, you want to take them off when there's an old high. Okay? The first target two and a second fed, that's just a
113 00:20:31 --> 00:20:38 take something off the reward yourself, you know, that cookie, you know, reward, they like to trade or feel good. Say that way, if the trade does fizzle out, at
114 00:20:38 --> 00:20:46 least you took something off of it and get a pound of flesh. But notice how if you start looking at all the fibs that start to expand past that second
115 00:20:46 --> 00:20:55 Fibonacci level of target to start looking at those price swings to the left, right, before we get to those equal highs at the buy stops. If there's a fit
116 00:20:55 --> 00:21:07 that overlaps with a run above those short term highs, as you can see, right here, this one, okay, above this high, we have this fit. So we can take that as
117 00:21:07 --> 00:21:16 an area of scaling, take something off and obviously take something off, it gets right here, right that level, and then look for the combination of the two
118 00:21:16 --> 00:21:26 fields blend together. And you'd have a really handsome setup and also an overlapping of institutional level 130 80 right in here. So that's going to be
119 00:21:26 --> 00:21:35 this one for price action model number three, everything is reversed for short selling, study it everything's in the mentor ship, I did not teach anything new
120 00:21:35 --> 00:21:45 here except for this an expansion on the fib. And again, all the levels are a negative, so it's negative for dash or hyphen, and then you enter the numbers.
121 00:21:45 --> 00:22:01 Okay. Okay, folks, welcome back. Alright, so we're at our update for model number three, for Swing Trading. And it's April 19 2019. Happy Passover. So,
122 00:22:01 --> 00:22:12 again, this model is specifically dealing with swing trading, which is an intermediate term style to short term style. I'm not going to rehash everything
123 00:22:12 --> 00:22:21 that was covered in this video here, you guys can, obviously and you should be watching it again before watching this video. Otherwise, it's going to feel
124 00:22:21 --> 00:22:32 fragmented because it's been such a while since we revisited this model. It's focuses primarily on and this is the reason why I did the outline like this
125 00:22:32 --> 00:22:43 visit will allow me to come back to each time we do a new video. So again, the models for folks that don't have the ability, or the capacity to day trade are
126 00:22:43 --> 00:22:56 short term intraday trade scalping, and need a little bit more oomph in terms of movement, because of their time constraints, or their personality limitations,
127 00:22:56 --> 00:23:08 do not allow for them to be a very small short term trader. So then looking for larger moves, primarily looking at the daily chart, doesn't mean that we're not
128 00:23:08 --> 00:23:18 able to use the intraday components and concepts to help reduce the risk because that's exactly what you should be doing. Not necessary, not required, but it
129 00:23:18 --> 00:23:28 helps the end. That's the reason why we do 12 Different models because they will all complement you'll see this at the end of the all the presentation when I'm
130 00:23:28 --> 00:23:39 done. And when I say okay, we are done talking about these models. And whatever else direction I take the mentorship after that, it will be very easy for you to
131 00:23:39 --> 00:23:49 see how they enter, lock in interconnect with one another, they overlap beautifully, which is what gives me the ability to go in any timeframe and
132 00:23:49 --> 00:24:00 trade. Now, admittedly, I don't like to do long term or immediate term swing trading doesn't fit my personality, it doesn't mean that I can't point them out
133 00:24:00 --> 00:24:11 to you. So you can pay attention to them just means that I personally don't really participate in them. Because it's my mind can be changed on a whim. And
134 00:24:11 --> 00:24:24 I'm very short term attention span that type of thing. So I like to be where I'm my best. And you guys can see that on Twitter. I'm a day trader at best. With
135 00:24:24 --> 00:24:35 the higher timeframe short term one shot one kill, you know, weekly reach. So this model we like to look at any pair doesn't make a difference any market. It
136 00:24:35 --> 00:24:47 can be a London or New York kill zone and the trade objectives are going to be 100 to 300 pips on average. Sometimes it can be a lot more than that if there's
137 00:24:47 --> 00:24:58 a lot of things going on behind it like seasonal tendency, market structure. If it's a commodity, it may be a premium market where everything is backwards. In
138 00:24:58 --> 00:25:10 terms of the delivery months, it's now more expensive in a nearby monsoon is the further months out. So the trade frequency generally will be one to two times
139 00:25:10 --> 00:25:21 per month. And the reason why that is the case, because we're focusing on as the lesson, the presentation initially outlined it, we're looking for that monthly
140 00:25:21 --> 00:25:35 candle to expand higher or lower. Okay, so if we have that prognostication behind the analysis suggesting that we're probably going to be moving higher or
141 00:25:35 --> 00:25:46 lower depending upon the the market structure and in the technicals at the time, because everything is relative to that. If we know that our tools and our
142 00:25:46 --> 00:26:00 concepts and our analysis are leading to the high probability that a prolonged move, we'll see price advanced higher or lower relative to the monthly chart.
143 00:26:01 --> 00:26:15 We're basically predicting the monthly candles, bullishness or bearishness. Now, because of that monthly candle, it's comprised of generally four weeks. So if we
144 00:26:15 --> 00:26:28 capture one week of that month, with a swing trade, we're successful, and it does not matter if that monthly candle closes near the high or bullishly. It's
145 00:26:28 --> 00:26:38 not that's not the point. The point is, is we're trading inside of the order flow. And when the expansion occurs, it's seeking by side liquidity above the
146 00:26:38 --> 00:26:49 marketplace, or it's seeking sell side liquidity below the marketplace. And all we're trying to do is capitalize on that displacement in price relative to the
147 00:26:49 --> 00:26:58 monthly range. So don't think that we have to have the monthly clothes in our favor. Many times much analysis
148 00:27:00 --> 00:27:09 went very well to the directional bias for the trade. But sometimes the candle on a monthly basis x a reversed. And there's nothing wrong with that, because
149 00:27:10 --> 00:27:24 the the basis of what we're trading is the liquidity or the draw on liquidity above or below the marketplace. So when we have these things in mind, to build a
150 00:27:24 --> 00:27:36 model that builds a bias, it builds a set up a framework. It's all based on that monthly expansion higher or lower. Okay, so swing trading requires that all the
151 00:27:36 --> 00:27:45 time, that's the common denominator, that's the foundation, if you will, to solid swing trading, you don't see that in books, you don't get that from other
152 00:27:45 --> 00:27:53 people that are trying to teach swing trading, because they're just going in there looking for things, you know, at the right now, daily chart or less. And
153 00:27:53 --> 00:28:03 that doesn't, that doesn't bode well for high probability. You guys see, I don't lose a whole lot. And it's based on framing setups that would deem them to be
154 00:28:03 --> 00:28:12 high probability. So for Swing Trading, you have to have the, the underlying direction of that monthly candle. That's the form next, that has to be bullish
155 00:28:12 --> 00:28:22 or bearish in your analysis. And if it's not, and you can't clearly ascertain what directional bias it is, for that monthly candle that's going to form next,
156 00:28:23 --> 00:28:32 then you don't have a high probability condition. So you need to leave that model and go down to a lower timeframe, or model, which would be short term
157 00:28:32 --> 00:28:38 trading. But again, that's outside the scope. But I want to put that in here because you can include that for your notes. We'll talk about that as we go into
158 00:28:38 --> 00:28:51 other models. Again, it's not focused on any one particular day of the week. So it's very fluid, allows a lot of flexibility. So we're gonna go over to the
159 00:28:51 --> 00:29:00 Canadian dollar. Alright, so we're looking at the Canadian dollar. Now, this is the futures market. Okay, so, when we look at the futures market, we have to
160 00:29:00 --> 00:29:11 remember, if we're trading Forex, and I'm going to present this on both both sides of the coin here, if we are a futures trader, okay, or paper trading or
161 00:29:11 --> 00:29:24 demo trading, the Canadian dollar futures market. If we're looking for bearish prices on the futures contract for Canadian dollar, that's going to be the
162 00:29:24 --> 00:29:35 opposite direction to what we'd expect to see happen in the dollar CAD pair. Because the first currency in the pair of dollar CAD is the dollar. So when it
163 00:29:35 --> 00:29:45 moves up, that's the same thing as saying that the Canadian dollar futures market is going lower and vice versa. Okay, so it's just make sure that you're
164 00:29:45 --> 00:30:00 aware of that. And he doesn't confuse you. The the line that's down here, okay is the commercials. And what I've done is eliminated all While the other small
165 00:30:00 --> 00:30:13 specks in large funds. And while we're focusing on the commercials, okay, and you can do that on bar chart, if you use the technical chart. And I'll show you
166 00:30:13 --> 00:30:23 what that one is the link. method. And we'll try so that wrong sorry, the interactive chart, usually, I show you what the technical chart. But if you want
167 00:30:23 --> 00:30:39 to remove the large speculators, and the small speculators, and just show the commercials, you would just go into the studies here. And I have the little
168 00:30:39 --> 00:30:49 eyeball, toggled. So it's got a little line, and only the commercials are showing the eyeball. If you want just the large specs to show up, you would do
169 00:30:49 --> 00:31:15 that. Okay. Do that. That's what we have here are applying that. And what we have? Is the market showing a willingness to want to go lower obviously. And if
170 00:31:15 --> 00:31:28 we look at how price has worked, lower author here, author here. Alright, so if we look at just the line itself, from a traditional view or perspective on
171 00:31:29 --> 00:31:42 administrators, the zero basis line, this would look bullish. Okay, this is what's always confusing people with co2, it gets so frustrating that you're
172 00:31:42 --> 00:31:53 like, What is this? It's if we look at what they're saying, relative to this chart here, or as Commitment of Traders data analysis that was taught by Larry
173 00:31:53 --> 00:32:02 Williams, back in his how many million dollars trading commodities last year book classic, you need to have it in your library if you don't have it. He
174 00:32:02 --> 00:32:14 talked about how this was the underlying framework. And sometimes that's true, and most time is not. So what we do for this model, number three, is we use the
175 00:32:14 --> 00:32:24 hedging program, okay, which is we take the last six months, last 12 months, last two years, the last four years, depends upon what timeframe you're looking
176 00:32:24 --> 00:32:33 Apple, because we're swing trading. You can do this with last six months. But we're sticking to the rules of the model number three, in original presentation
177 00:32:33 --> 00:32:44 the last 12 months. So if we're looking at the November time period, in the fall, December time, we go back about a four year which is here. And we get the
178 00:32:44 --> 00:32:56 lowest reading on the commercials in the highest reading. And we split that in half, as we're looking for. And when we do that, it gives us a range. And that
179 00:32:56 --> 00:33:12 range will define whether or not we are really above or below based on their yearly maximum buying and maximum selling or hedging on both extremes. Once we
180 00:33:12 --> 00:33:24 have that range, we split it in half. Okay. So when we do that, it gives us a real clear depiction of what is underlying in terms of their bullishness or
181 00:33:24 --> 00:33:35 bearishness, because it gives us a boundary of what their highest point of hedging long and highest I'm sorry, lowest point of hedging short. They're
182 00:33:35 --> 00:33:47 always doing buying and selling all day every day. But the bulk, or their net position is what we're tracking. So what I do is I look at the range. And this
183 00:33:47 --> 00:33:59 is obviously like I mentioned in the mentorship. It's completely unique to me. And what it helps me do is define where we are in the real extremes. This
184 00:34:00 --> 00:34:12 perspective, I'm convinced since everyone started doing it, the data gets skewed. So by removing the perspective of looking at like this, whether it's
185 00:34:12 --> 00:34:22 above or below the zero line, I create my own zero line by taking the highest range in the lowest range of the commercials net position. And I treat it like
186 00:34:22 --> 00:34:33 an overbought oversold, then I split that in half that range, where if we're above or below that new zero line, it gives us a clear or at least it gives me a
187 00:34:33 --> 00:34:43 clearer idea of what I should be bullish or bearish on that market. So once you do that, in that with this now, you see me do this and mentorship. I'm not going
188 00:34:43 --> 00:34:53 to do this again because otherwise this video will be way way long. I don't want to be way way long. So this is the chart. All I did was copy it and drop it into
189 00:34:53 --> 00:35:06 paint. Okay, and most computers have this it's a free little app, it's inside and what I do As I get the rectangle right here, and I draw it over top of the
190 00:35:06 --> 00:35:20 highest point, and the lowest point right here, and then I turn on view here, and I put the ruler and the gridlines on, and it helps me see the boxes that
191 00:35:20 --> 00:35:29 will represent the highest and the lowest range. And I just zoom in and I count the number of boxes. And then once I get a determination of how many boxes, I
192 00:35:29 --> 00:35:36 just divide that in half, then I count down from the top or count up from the bottom to that look, that number, which would be half of the range. And then I
193 00:35:36 --> 00:35:47 will draw a horizontal line across that, and it gives me a new zero basis line. And notice mine is up here. Okay, this is my zero basis line, which is higher
194 00:35:47 --> 00:36:00 than the zero line based on the traditional view of commanded traders. net position charts. So with this information, then I just go back in color in for
195 00:36:00 --> 00:36:13 you, I don't need to do this personally. But I do it for you. I go in and I take the little pink bucket here, and I color in blue, all the commercial line below
196 00:36:13 --> 00:36:25 the zero line when it gets back above a colored green. And when it's below, it's red. Okay. And that's what I'm seeing. When I look at just this chart, when I
197 00:36:25 --> 00:36:36 look at that I already know, I can rough it visually where the midpoint is on the range. This is what you end up seeing. So
198 00:36:38 --> 00:36:50 all this time period here, they're hedging was net long by traditional analysis perspective, using commitment traders. But it really is long based on the
199 00:36:50 --> 00:37:00 hedging program that I've used here by interpreting the data to slightly different. So I'm convinced that there's really no way for them to mess this up
200 00:37:00 --> 00:37:14 unless they just start to really delay the co2 information. And then if they do that, it'll just mean that there'll be more deviations in terms of their
201 00:37:14 --> 00:37:23 holdings, each time that an update. So it really is, it's not going to change anything, it's it's gonna actually make it even better for me, because I'll see
202 00:37:23 --> 00:37:36 them a lot sooner than it takes with this. It's a long term approach to using quote unquote, fundamental data. So they're long in here. Great. Okay, you can
203 00:37:36 --> 00:37:46 see all of the buying opportunities that took place, bullish or block, it recharges back into it rallies higher. Okay. We're both sort of blocking here,
204 00:37:46 --> 00:37:58 price trades down into it, having that long buy takes off. Okay. But notice what we have here. From October to December, we have the commercials in the hedging
205 00:37:58 --> 00:38:10 program it version bearish. And that's reflected with that movement lower here. And it wasn't until we got to this price point here towards the last week or so
206 00:38:10 --> 00:38:23 December where we would start to see the commercials go long. So now these two camps, whether they're bearish or bullish, are changing. Okay, there's a there's
207 00:38:23 --> 00:38:32 a changing in the tide, if you will, are the fundamentals. Now that doesn't mean it's time to get long Canadian dollar or short dollar CAD, it just means that
208 00:38:32 --> 00:38:43 they're now starting to have a larger degree of buying they're hedging it's not a turning point. Okay. But what we see here all through this period from October
209 00:38:44 --> 00:38:52 through December, every time price rallies up to a up close candle or bearish order block there's an opportunity to sell short beautifully market rallies back
210 00:38:52 --> 00:39:00 up into a bearish order block sells off beautifully and again, this is a daily chart so this is all swing trades. Here's a bullish candle here bearish order
211 00:39:00 --> 00:39:11 block price rallies right back up into it. Boom, but the commercials net short but you don't see that because they're above the zero line relative to a retail
212 00:39:11 --> 00:39:20 perspective looking at it. They're not going to see commitment traders is bearish there. We do. Okay, and with that in there and institutional order flow,
213 00:39:20 --> 00:39:33 you have to have the strongest things in my repertoire working for you. We were expecting weakness in Canadian dollar. Go back and look at all the videos you'll
214 00:39:33 --> 00:39:44 see all that stuff. If we are a commodity trader. Okay, if we're paper trading, if you will. There's several things in here you could have done and this is what
215 00:39:44 --> 00:39:58 you do going forward and you practice you could use the order block, okay? Use the order block and buy a put option or not really buy it but paper trade the
216 00:39:58 --> 00:40:16 price as price rallies up into that order block. That's essentially the 7650 level 77 You can do a 77. Put. And when price was rallying up into that order
217 00:40:16 --> 00:40:30 block here, or when it was rallying back up into the order block here, you can look at the 77. Put you can look at the 76. Put okay and and they'll have an
218 00:40:30 --> 00:40:42 opportunity for you to paper tray the option. Or you can just simply paper trade or demo trade the outright short of the Canadian dollar futures market. We're
219 00:40:42 --> 00:40:54 going to focus on October to December for the forex market. That means when the Canadian dollar for the commercial hedging program using the cod data here, when
220 00:40:54 --> 00:41:04 we have this bearish here, that's going to be the opposite for the dollar CAD pair, it's going to be bullish. So remember, from October through December, it's
221 00:41:04 --> 00:41:15 bullish dollar CAD because it's bearish Canadian futures. Okay, with that said, we're gonna move over into the dollar cat. And I'm gonna start with the monthly
222 00:41:15 --> 00:41:29 chart here. We have down close candles here, which is a bullish order block. We have a smaller candle body here with a wick that goes in basically rebalances
223 00:41:29 --> 00:41:40 this volume and balance, that stuff works on a monthly chart. Hello, this imbalance here, volume imbalance, there's no candle body there just a wick, and
224 00:41:40 --> 00:41:51 it only goes up through with this candle here and comes down rebalances. So there's two passes it takes to get in here and fill that in it. So here, okay,
225 00:41:51 --> 00:42:02 beautiful return to an order block there. By itself, that's enough. That's this imbalance, fair value gap or void. That's what makes order blocks. high
226 00:42:02 --> 00:42:11 probability. Otherwise, it's just a down closed candle. We have an order block that starts with both consecutive down close candles, when we trade above it.
227 00:42:12 --> 00:42:24 This candle here when we trade above it, we now have a valid or block for for this level here. Otherwise, until we break above this in a meaningful way, and
228 00:42:24 --> 00:42:31 it's not meaningful here because we have a wick, and we close the body here. That means we have to spend a little bit more time inside the order block,
229 00:42:31 --> 00:42:40 what's it gonna go, it's gonna go right down to here and to attend to this volume of Valence. Okay, so we're not gonna talk about that. I just put it in
230 00:42:40 --> 00:42:51 here for extra credit and charge. But we have the order block that's extended out in here, right in here as price was trading down in this candle. When that
231 00:42:51 --> 00:43:07 candle closed that very day, the last trading day of that month. Okay, of September 2018. You go into it with the expectation in October, we're going to
232 00:43:07 --> 00:43:18 anticipate up candle. Now again, this these are monthly candles. So we're anticipating a monthly candle or range expanse on the upside, beginning in
233 00:43:18 --> 00:43:31 October. Okay. So with that said, what are we aiming for? Well, we have this old high right here. And we also have these old equal highs relative. This is our
234 00:43:31 --> 00:43:42 drawn liquidity this this high here. So we know that if this is a monthly chart, this level right here may be something else on a weekly chart, or it may be
235 00:43:42 --> 00:43:55 something on a daily chart of greater significance. And by that I mean equal highs, like the original number three model presentation described. So in this
236 00:43:55 --> 00:44:08 area here that shaded this is going to represent that October through December bullish commitment traders. Again, relative to this. Here, it's just opposite.
237 00:44:08 --> 00:44:18 Okay. We're just reversing the whole viewpoint. Okay, I'm dropping down into a weekly chart here. And now you can see even the last down close candle extended
238 00:44:18 --> 00:44:35 out in time, beautiful waterblock hits it right there. Okay. All we need is the direction of the monthly expansion. Each week, we had the possibility of taking
239 00:44:35 --> 00:44:48 one shot one kill in that direction. Or we get in sync with this market move and we hold it over several weeks. Now, that high on the monthly chart liquid it
240 00:44:48 --> 00:44:58 becomes on a weekly equal highs. See that? Now this just happened the form in the very market that we talked about in the original presentation, but now we're
241 00:44:58 --> 00:45:08 looking at things on the opposite side We were bearish back then we're looking at bullish on this one, the dollar CAD. So if we're looking at these equal
242 00:45:08 --> 00:45:19 highs, that's going to be a draw on liquidity. Trading until weekly order block, we're expecting the monthly order blocked to send price higher. So if that's the
243 00:45:19 --> 00:45:30 case, and this is when we're expecting that co2 data, all through this period, CRT from the hedging perspective that I taught you. And just shows you again,
244 00:45:30 --> 00:45:42 with this chart here, it's all bearish in the futures contract. But it's bullish all through here. Okay, in other words, it looks like this. If we frame that out
245 00:45:42 --> 00:45:54 with vertical lines, this is the period of which that same co2 chart here was bearish for Canadian dollar. It's all bullish here and look at the beautiful
246 00:45:54 --> 00:46:07 delivery of price. Now, if that doesn't get you excited, okay, that does not get you so amped up. Morning, what makes these markets move like this, you don't see
247 00:46:07 --> 00:46:13 this stuff in retail books, folks, you just don't do it. Larry Williams ain't doing this, okay, I'm with it. Right now, he's not doing this, no one's doing
248 00:46:13 --> 00:46:22 this. But the ICT click, so I want you to really appreciate it because the
249 00:46:23 --> 00:46:37 the amount of detail and confidence that it gives you knowing it is phenomenal. It really is phenomenal. And if you trust it, you're going on, you're gonna find
250 00:46:37 --> 00:46:48 that you're able to do swing trades a lot easier. Because you're studying past back data. And as a kind of like inside note, tomorrow, which will be Saturday,
251 00:46:48 --> 00:47:04 the 20th of April 2018. The teaching lesson will be how to do back testing and how to build a collection of data. So that way, you can start building
252 00:47:04 --> 00:47:11 confidence around what you're trying to do in the charts. Because a lot of you have a lot of theory, you understand that you're familiar with because you heard
253 00:47:11 --> 00:47:18 me talk about it. But now we're gonna start moving into what do you do with this information, start building out some practice sessions where you don't need me
254 00:47:18 --> 00:47:26 telling you to do each week, here's a set, here's a specific challenge. You'll know every day what you should be doing and how to collect that data. And how is
255 00:47:26 --> 00:47:34 it useful? Alright, so we have the down close candles in here. That's our bullish order block, as well on the weekly, then we have this candle right in
256 00:47:34 --> 00:47:47 here, see that? This down close candle is right before these equal highs. So yes, we could have been buying Ray on this candle here. And I actually have this
257 00:47:47 --> 00:48:02 already on another chart. Here's the dollar CAD market trading down into the order block here. This is the beginning of October. I'm gonna take that out now.
258 00:48:02 --> 00:48:14 So you won't need it. So when price moves away, we come down into the order block here. That is an opportunity to be a buyer we can belong. What's the point
259 00:48:14 --> 00:48:24 of entry here? What's the target on it? What are we looking for? Well, we have two candles here. One weekly basis. This is an initial target. Why? Because
260 00:48:24 --> 00:48:35 these are equal highs. This close candle is down close candle. They're relative equal highs. When we drop down to a daily, it'd be more apparent. But we also
261 00:48:35 --> 00:48:42 still have these equal highs here. Okay, so you're gonna need to watch this video a couple times, because I'm going back and forth between several
262 00:48:42 --> 00:48:50 timeframes. But I already warned you April, we're going to get into a little bit more detail. And it's gonna be harder for you to just watch a video one time
263 00:48:50 --> 00:48:59 picking out you're going to have to you have to chew on these lessons because it's a lot more things involved. Okay, you have to compare and contrast things.
264 00:49:00 --> 00:49:05 And it's why it's important for you to do this stuff in your own charts. But we have an area here that's relatively equal highs and this obviously is equal
265 00:49:05 --> 00:49:17 highs, no doubt about that. This down close candle price trades down into it hits it here as this candle right here, this weekly open trades down into this
266 00:49:17 --> 00:49:25 order block. Why this order block? Why not trade all way down here because I already did that institutional order flows are restarted to show you the
267 00:49:25 --> 00:49:37 signatures are in place but this order block has been capitalized rallied up. Wait for down close candle. We have one is it before or lower than our original
268 00:49:37 --> 00:49:46 draw on liquidity, which is equal equal highs. Again, think about what was taught to you in model number three is original presentation when we have equal
269 00:49:46 --> 00:49:58 highs, okay. And we have a period of when the market is bullish, like we have here, the co2 data, it's showing that that's all occurring in here. Right in
270 00:49:58 --> 00:50:04 here. It's it's all bullish. During that period, and I'll put the vertical lines on just for completeness sake.
271 00:50:10 --> 00:50:24 Okay, it's the end of September. And last day of December, so all of this period between these vertical blue lines, that's all in commercials are really, really
272 00:50:24 --> 00:50:35 bearish Canadian futures, which is bullish dollar CAD. Okay. So I'll leave these on here. And this is the weekly order block price trades down on this candle
273 00:50:35 --> 00:50:48 here on the second of December. That's that weekly candle. So the week of December 2, that's where we're looking to enter to get a run on the equal highs.
274 00:50:48 --> 00:51:05 Again, the premise is it's a swing trade. We dropped down into a daily here's that open, betrayed down look at the candle here. Here's a third of December,
275 00:51:05 --> 00:51:17 the third of December retreat into the order block. Would you be a buyer here with the expectation of the equal highs is upside draw the low one this is
276 00:51:17 --> 00:51:38 131 60. We'll call it 131 39 Is the low but 131 60 is the actual 10 level. The drawn liquidity is 3384. Because they're equal highs, then we know that likely
277 00:51:38 --> 00:51:55 going to sweep above that right. So what's that mean? 133 85 as a drop in liquidity. So between 133 At 5am 131 60 we have well over 100 pips, right?
278 00:51:56 --> 00:52:09 Several we have over 200 pips available on the setup. So as a swing trader buying here, where does your stop go? It has to be below this low right here.
279 00:52:09 --> 00:52:27 Okay, what is that low, the lowest 131 26. So our stop has to be about 10 pips below 131 25 or 131 15. That would be here. There's your stop. Your target is
280 00:52:27 --> 00:52:39 above here. So how many days does it take to get there? While you're buying on this day, as it slams on a newer block? What's the price? Anything below these
281 00:52:39 --> 00:52:50 equal lows, you see that? Equal lows? Liquidity is resting below that it also tags the order block trades in the little block here. Buying it going long stock
282 00:52:50 --> 00:52:59 goes here. Do you need to be in intraday charts to do that? No. Because you can see the equal lows here. You can see this low here and you have to be below
283 00:52:59 --> 00:53:08 that. Okay, so there's your, your stop. You can see these on the daily chart, do you need to go into the lower timeframe? No, it helps. It helps to do that. But
284 00:53:08 --> 00:53:20 you don't need to. Okay, so this model is for people that have that it's the working man, you know, working class hero model where you have jobs and and you
285 00:53:20 --> 00:53:31 have businesses you have things that prevent you from being a intraday junkie. So if you can facilitate a trade using intraday concepts, it will reduce this
286 00:53:31 --> 00:53:39 stock to something smaller. But we're not going to teach that here I want you to focus on this level of perspective. Okay, just know that you can use all the
287 00:53:39 --> 00:53:50 intraday scalping and day trading models to complement this area in here to reduce the overall risk and not have this such a wide stop. And you can leverage
288 00:53:50 --> 00:54:05 more but not open yourself up to larger risk. But we have over 200 pips available and it's been offered over the span of three days. So this movement
289 00:54:05 --> 00:54:17 here, this is a classic swing trade, doesn't take very much time to get there, over several 100 pips, but beautifully illustrated using everything that was
290 00:54:17 --> 00:54:31 taught to you in price action model number three original presentation. If we look at the four hour chart, which is something that you can do, because it's so
291 00:54:31 --> 00:54:41 friendly, it doesn't allow for a lot of time poring over the chart. It doesn't take much for someone that has a job or a business to just quickly open up a
292 00:54:41 --> 00:54:52 chart and see where we are on the four hour chart. And in here, when price was dropping down, we know there's an order block here it trades into that it does
293 00:54:52 --> 00:55:02 it again here. Then price starts to rally away. These down close candles in here, anywhere inside this range. You could be a buyer, and your stop would
294 00:55:02 --> 00:55:12 still be down here. Everything still is the same. They're close proximity entries, you learned about that in the mentorship. So you could see this open
295 00:55:12 --> 00:55:23 here when it was trading down again, okay, you can feel confident that this run down, all this is doing is closing up a fair value gap. What's the gap? While we
296 00:55:23 --> 00:55:35 have this candle here, extended out in time, price only draws up through it with buyside delivery opens on this candle and then trades down. So as it was feeding
297 00:55:35 --> 00:55:47 back into this up, side delivery on price, by side delivery creates a sell side imbalance, this candle here opens, trades down rebalances, the sell side. And
298 00:55:47 --> 00:55:58 then after it does that price is then allowed to move to the upside, which at attacking this level here, that 133 85 target. And look how fast price gets up
299 00:55:58 --> 00:56:09 there. Because it's seeking that liquidity on a four hour. Okay, on a four hour, we have equal candles here as well. Okay, that's a liquidity pool, that's a
300 00:56:09 --> 00:56:20 liquidity pool, anything above equal highs or below equal closes look is a liquidity pool. When we know, they're that clear and apparent, that's what a
301 00:56:20 --> 00:56:29 liquidity pool is, to me, it's not going to a website and seeing where they're supposedly stops building up. I don't have any faith in that they're not going
302 00:56:29 --> 00:56:39 to see those orders because orders are able to be pulled in or it's removed from the marketplace. When you see old highs, old lows, okay, that's where that's
303 00:56:39 --> 00:56:49 where liquidity is going to rest. It's obvious, it's classic, simple, you know where the stops are based on the chart, okay. And that's what I trade, I trade
304 00:56:49 --> 00:56:57 outside the chart, I'm looking at things outside of these candles above it. And I'm looking for things below the candles here that are outside the chart.
305 00:56:58 --> 00:57:09 There's nothing down here. But I know there is its liquidity. You know, there is is liquidity. The chart, no one's thinking about this area up here, or the
306 00:57:09 --> 00:57:22 expansion of 1020 and 30 or 510 and 15 pips above. Okay, that's how we internalize. Because we look at institutional order flow, and pairing of orders.
307 00:57:23 --> 00:57:32 That's completely diametrically opposed to what as we learned when we first get into the marketplace as retail traders, what's this candlestick formation? Is it
308 00:57:32 --> 00:57:44 a doji? Is it the hanging man? Is it a dark cloud covering? It's nonsense. That's when the thought works. So when we change our perspective, and that model
309 00:57:44 --> 00:57:55 of market efficiency paradigm is acquired and now utilized in our analysis. We don't look at the marketplace as a retail trader we look at as an institutional
310 00:57:55 --> 00:58:07 trader, because as an institutional trader, we have to know where the counterparty liquidity is. Now, what I just said, is completely the foundation
311 00:58:07 --> 00:58:19 to what makes me ICT my perspective on price is diametrically opposed to what you're taught, and what everyone else is doing in the retail scope. That's why
312 00:58:19 --> 00:58:28 my strike rate is high. That's why my accuracy is high. Because I'm not doing what everyone else is doing. I'm not thinking like what everyone else is
313 00:58:28 --> 00:58:40 thinking. And I'm not teaching you to do that either. I'm telling you how to think like a predator. We're looking for the herd mentality, okay. The herd
314 00:58:40 --> 00:58:51 mentality is going to be attacked. Now all the time, sometimes the herd will be allowed to move like it does here. It's moving up. Well, it's moving up because
315 00:58:51 --> 00:59:02 it's, it's it's supposed to, now it's allowed to move that direction. But once it gets here, okay, once it gets above that, then our mindset says okay, now I'm
316 00:59:02 --> 00:59:16 going to look for the sick cow. I want to see that sick will the beast Okay, or that sick deer or the one that's confused and doesn't know what it's supposed to
317 00:59:16 --> 00:59:27 do? A thinks Okay, well the crowds been going here the herds going higher. It wants to go further still. No, we attack that we sell shortened here, okay,
318 00:59:27 --> 00:59:39 where we sell our long positions that's been acquired down here. Why? Because the Counterparty is above these highs and above this 3385 level. Okay, so once
319 00:59:39 --> 00:59:51 this takes place, we expect we expect the market to turn direction. We see that happening here. What's it doing? We have a by side imbalance by side imbalance.
320 00:59:51 --> 01:00:04 Celsa inefficiency price comes down in rebalance. Is it in here? What is it doing? It's in giving me an opportunity to build in more sentiment.
321 01:00:06 --> 01:00:13 It's interesting that we have a fair value gap in here, not a large one, but it still comes down and rebalances that, then what to do has to come back up and
322 01:00:13 --> 01:00:22 rebalance this area here between this candle and this candle. It's a city sell side and balance by side inefficiency, which is rebalanced here. And it creates
323 01:00:22 --> 01:00:23 these equal highs in here.
324 01:00:28 --> 01:00:42 All this creates what? Another liquidity pool, right or equal highs. Everything that we just disclosed and talked about in this model here. If you are a short
325 01:00:42 --> 01:00:51 term trader, the same thing applies for this area here and on this task tossing scenario because it's too good not to talk about. But we have a busy here by
326 01:00:51 --> 01:01:01 side and bounce outside of inefficiency, or block, which makes this order block this down close candle high probability why we have equal highs and then between
327 01:01:01 --> 01:01:09 this high and this high, we have relatively equal high. This is liquidity resting and building up here because they're going to be chasing this sharp move
328 01:01:09 --> 01:01:18 down. What's retail thinking, Oh, this is that 123 Drive pattern. Know, they're going to be seeing momentum divergences in all these highs, it's not their
329 01:01:20 --> 01:01:28 creates liquidity, they're going to be chasing this as a 123 top. Okay, all kinds of harmonic patterns are gonna be screaming, saying hello, this is a
330 01:01:28 --> 01:01:36 short, when prices dropping down, they're gonna feel rewarded. They'll probably chase him bottom, I'm sorry. So more of it, which builds a larger liquidity pool
331 01:01:36 --> 01:01:47 up here. This order block when it trades there, your buyer shooting above here, that's our liquidity. It does it there. But then we start doing the expansions
332 01:01:47 --> 01:02:07 of 1020 and 30 pips above this highest high, the highest high would be 134 43. So we could go 134 73 Which would be maybe reaching 275 Okay, 3475. And that
333 01:02:07 --> 01:02:08 would look like
334 01:02:17 --> 01:02:25 it's close enough, and it hits it here and sweeps it, and then we get that rejection and goes lower. What is it doing right there? It's coming back filling
335 01:02:25 --> 01:02:33 in this busy buyside imbalance outside and viciously trades back down hits the order book again. Why? Why is that we're blocked because we have an imbalance.
336 01:02:33 --> 01:02:49 We have institutional order flow calling for higher prices. And why this price here 134 75. Remember, remember we had that longer term higher timeframe. 133 85
337 01:02:49 --> 01:03:05 down here. Okay, if we go out to the weekly chart, we talked about this area right in here. Zoom in. You talked about this void right here. This is a city
338 01:03:06 --> 01:03:14 sellside unbalanced buyside inefficiency. What's it going to want to do? It's going to want to fill that in. So I just gave you all of the ways we can use a
339 01:03:14 --> 01:03:27 four hour chart to get in sync with that larger price move and capture all of this run here. How many pips is that? Right in here there's equal highs going in
340 01:03:27 --> 01:03:42 around 3385 Okay, consolidations around the old equal high area here runs beautifully up into and again all during that time when the CBOT hedging program
341 01:03:42 --> 01:03:55 I showed you again this area here bears Canadian bullish dollar CAD expansion to the upside this area right here go back and look at the charts folks. I talked
342 01:03:55 --> 01:04:02 about this area right here and I went right up to it filled it in. This is the reason why I said that based on everything I'm showing you here. Well wait a
343 01:04:02 --> 01:04:11 minute, Michael, why didn't you do a swing trade? I've already told you that's not how I trade personally. But I used that analysis and that's how I do my
344 01:04:11 --> 01:04:19 weekly analysis with you now looking at the chart right now we have the opportunity give me something right now Michael right and this is what we're
345 01:04:19 --> 01:04:27 gonna do we have down close candles to market trade down into it bullish order block hits, it rallies away, but now look what's happening. We're consolidating
346 01:04:28 --> 01:04:45 what's left here. What's in here is equal highs is on a weekly chart. Isn't this same thing right here? This? Yes, absolutely it is. So if we drop our horizontal
347 01:04:45 --> 01:05:10 line here, on this candle here, we're gonna be looking for 135 6135 65 in that area. Specifically the candles low is 3563 was round it to 6035 60
348 01:05:12 --> 01:05:29 There we go. And now we can drop into a daily chart liquidity void equal highs runs above equal highs it could expand up into like we saw here. Okay, all this
349 01:05:29 --> 01:05:39 movement here, you could see that run up into this area here so 135 60 That's my target. I'm looking for dollar CAD to do that. Okay, what changes it we lose
350 01:05:39 --> 01:05:49 this low here okay, we have equal lows we've already swept that everything's looking like this thing wants to go higher. And now you can paper trade it Okay,
351 01:05:49 --> 01:05:59 start looking for down close candles on the daily and four hour chart paper trade them as a long until we get above these equal highs and up to this level
352 01:05:59 --> 01:05:59 here.
353 01:06:00 --> 01:06:00 Okay,
354 01:06:00 --> 01:06:07 so hopefully you found this installment insightful hope it built your understanding about model three a little bit more. If anything, it's giving you
355 01:06:07 --> 01:06:15 something else to study and go back and look at and they have something to go forward and forward test based on what I just shared with you here. I'll talk to
356 01:06:15 --> 01:06:17 you next time. I wish you good luck and good trading