ICT Charter PAM 13 - Charter Lecture On 2022 YouTube Model
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-02-17 08:02
Outline
00:00 - Intraday market structure trading model.
- ICT explains model 13, a framework for intraday market structure trading based on PV array matrix objectives.
- ICT monitors 5-1 minute charts after liquidity raids, tracking short-term market structure shifts.
03:00 - Trading strategies using technical analysis.
- ICT: Displacement trading strategy involves identifying fair value gaps in rapid market structure shifts after liquidity purge.
- The speaker is bearish and places a sell limit order at the high of the fair value gap on the five-minute chart, using the low of the premium high as the stop loss.
- The speaker is bullish and places a buy limit order at the low of the premium high of the fair value gap on the five-minute chart, using the high of the discount low as the stop loss.
07:33 - Risk management and profit taking strategies in trading.
- Trader uses risk management strategy to mitigate drawdowns and avoid blowout trading sessions.
- ICT looks for by side liquidity raids on AM session highs or lunch hour highs, with purging creating displacement lower and a fair value gap (ideal).
- If bullish, ICT looks for sell side liquidity raids on AM session lows or launching between 12-1 PM, with precedents established in morning session highs or lows (rare).
- ICT sets sell limit order at high of discount low or fair value gap, with stop loss at high of premium high.
14:14 - Trading strategies and targets.
- ICT aims to improve precision targeting through personalized methods, despite ongoing dissatisfaction with current abilities.
- Trader looks for extreme premium levels and fair value gaps to trade.
17:23 - Trading setups and time management.
- At 10am Eastern Time, sentiment is established due to swing, and the first hour of trading is influential throughout the day.
- At 11am Eastern Standard Time, on days of the week that offer conditions for market reversals (Thursday, Friday), the 11am setup could be a market reversal, and the London close time is a factor to consider.
- ICT identifies specific time windows for scalping in the last hour of trading, based on chart patterns and market conditions.
- These time windows are highly specific to index futures and require a high level of precision and nimbleness for successful trading.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:00 --> 00:00:11 | ICT: Hi folks, welcome back is the ICT mentorship model. 13 was obviously, the 2022, free YouTube mentorship that I did on my YouTube channel. This is an |
| 2 | 00:00:11 --> 00:00:24 | amplified YouTube lecture. It's just for this community, and it's specializing in index futures. Alright, now, before we get into it, I want to remind you, |
| 3 | 00:00:24 --> 00:00:33 | it's important for you to have already gone through the lessons and lectures I've done on YouTube channel. Because without that framework or foundation, this |
| 4 | 00:00:33 --> 00:00:43 | is going to feel like it's not clear. Okay, so if you haven't yet to do it, don't complain about this not being clear, because it's absolutely clear, based |
| 5 | 00:00:43 --> 00:00:55 | on the foundation and lessons and examples that was shown in great detail on the YouTube channel for free. So with this model, and when wherever we refer to it |
| 6 | 00:00:55 --> 00:01:04 | in this community, we're referring to it as model 13. So it's the 13th the last model, I'm going to share with this community as foundational that you can use |
| 7 | 00:01:04 --> 00:01:14 | to either run with or build up your own unique model with these ideas as foundation. But the logic for this one is we are looking to trade intraday |
| 8 | 00:01:14 --> 00:01:23 | market structure that targets opposing PV array matrix objectives. So what does that mean? If we're bearish, we're looking for discount rates. If we're bullish, |
| 9 | 00:01:23 --> 00:01:39 | we're looking for premium arrays. The framework we use time of day. Now, this is the specific window for forex 7am to 10am, which at the New York kill zone, and |
| 10 | 00:01:39 --> 00:01:53 | 8:30am till 11am. Eastern Time for index futures, which is the am session index futures morning session. We're monitoring five down to one minute charts after a |
| 11 | 00:01:53 --> 00:02:03 | liquidity raid occurs, and short term shift in market structure unfolds. Now notice I've given it a wide range of parameters that could be utilized because |
| 12 | 00:02:03 --> 00:02:12 | in here, I've taught you prices fractal, I gave them a very specific element of time and rolls over there. So it's kind of limited even though it's a very good |
| 13 | 00:02:12 --> 00:02:26 | model. It's limited because I'm taking them into a 15 minute chart. And then they have to see a market structure. Shift after buyside has been taken out 5015 |
| 14 | 00:02:26 --> 00:02:36 | minutes or five. But you can use any timeframe, you can use this model on an hourly chart, you can use it on a 30 minute chart, you can use it on any |
| 15 | 00:02:36 --> 00:02:45 | timeframe you want. It can be done on a four hour chart. Okay, don't think that it's limited to just put out outline on YouTube. Everything is fractal. |
| 16 | 00:02:45 --> 00:02:56 | Everything is scalable that we're monitoring again, five minute down to one minute charts after liquidity rate occurs and short term shift in market |
| 17 | 00:02:56 --> 00:03:12 | structure unfolds. The setup if we're bearish we look for a buy side liquidity raid. That means by sides taken in purged okay, we're bearish we want to see |
| 18 | 00:03:12 --> 00:03:22 | relative equal highs or a single high taken ran out okay, price quickly jumps up into it. Once it takes that by side then we're waiting to see rapid market |
| 19 | 00:03:22 --> 00:03:36 | structure shift below a recent five or down to a one minute chart low that's displacement if the drop after Beisa liquidity is purged in creates displacement |
| 20 | 00:03:36 --> 00:03:53 | lower and has a fair value gap this is ideal. If bullish we look for ourselves out liquidity raid then rapid market structure shift above a recent five down to |
| 21 | 00:03:53 --> 00:04:08 | one minute high. If the rally after sellside liquidity is purged creates displacement higher and has a fair value get this is ideal. Now, before I go any |
| 22 | 00:04:08 --> 00:04:17 | further, obviously for the bearish and bullish scenario inside that displacement lag. In other words after stops are rated then we have market structure shift |
| 23 | 00:04:18 --> 00:04:34 | respective to the rules here. Ideally, the fair value gap is going to be at or above the equilibrium forebears and at or below equilibrium for bullish the |
| 24 | 00:04:34 --> 00:04:47 | entry is bearish. Place a sell limit order at the high of the discount low of the fair value gap on the five down to one minute chart that formed. What do I |
| 25 | 00:04:47 --> 00:04:57 | mean by that? If we're looking for sell, the fair value gap is formed by three candles. The lower candle that creates the bottom range of the fair value gap |
| 26 | 00:04:57 --> 00:05:07 | that's the discount low so you're placing sell limit order at that high. Now, you can fancy dance it and go above it. But I personally, this is what I'm |
| 27 | 00:05:07 --> 00:05:15 | doing. I'm taking it right at that high, because if the structure is there and ideas there and the narratives in play, I want to make sure I'm getting filled, |
| 28 | 00:05:15 --> 00:05:24 | because it might just go a quarter of a point. And then that's it. If I'm a half a point above, with my limit, I'm missing it. Sometimes I've had a quarter point |
| 29 | 00:05:24 --> 00:05:35 | above. And even though it printed that it didn't fill me in runs away. That happens, folks. So to make sure you get a fill, this is the rules. Okay, you |
| 30 | 00:05:35 --> 00:05:44 | won't miss the trade that way. But that also opens you up to more risk now, is it going to be that make it or break it type risk? I don't believe so. Because |
| 31 | 00:05:44 --> 00:05:53 | we're on a very, very small timeframe chart anyway. So we're talking about quarter of a point, maybe half a point. That's the difference, it's not going to |
| 32 | 00:05:53 --> 00:06:04 | make that big of a deal. If the trade is good, it's good. Stop Loss is placed at the low of the premium, high of the fair value get used for the setup. So what |
| 33 | 00:06:04 --> 00:06:17 | am I saying here? We're bearish. We're looking at the candle that creates the highest range of the fair Vega. In other words, it's the first of the three |
| 34 | 00:06:17 --> 00:06:29 | candles, the uppermost candle, that low frames the highest point or the premium high of the fair value gap, when we're bearish. We're using that candles high. |
| 35 | 00:06:30 --> 00:06:41 | That's the stoploss. Okay, not one tick above it, not a full handle above it right at the high. So we're using the lowest risk parameters that you can use. |
| 36 | 00:06:41 --> 00:06:58 | That way, if the trade is good, you have the maximum in terms of what you could make in the lowest in terms of the risk. If bullish, place a buy limit order at |
| 37 | 00:06:58 --> 00:07:06 | the low of the premium high of the fair value gap on the five down to one minute chart, when I say that five down to one, it could be forming on the five minute |
| 38 | 00:07:06 --> 00:07:13 | chart with a very vague that could exist informal in the four minute chart, or the three minute chart or the two minute chart or one minute chart, but we're |
| 39 | 00:07:13 --> 00:07:25 | going down whichever one from the five minute down creates the fair value get first, that's the one I'm working with. Okay. Stop Loss is placed at the high of |
| 40 | 00:07:25 --> 00:07:28 | the discount low on the fair value get used for the setup. |
| 41 | 00:07:33 --> 00:07:48 | The risk, we use 2% or less, preferably less per setup of the total equity of the trading account. So if your demo account has $25,000, in it, you're risking |
| 42 | 00:07:48 --> 00:08:00 | 2% of that 25,000 maximum, ideally 1% Or half percent. Because these setups form a lot. The frequency of trade can tend to make you want to get Punchdrunk and go |
| 43 | 00:08:00 --> 00:08:09 | on there and do a lot more with a lot of leverage and hurt yourself. Since you're having frequent setups, you can do less risk. So that way, even if your |
| 44 | 00:08:09 --> 00:08:22 | hit rate is less than 70%, or 60%. And if it's just 50%, you'll still be able to do well over time, and don't have to have perfection. The mitigating drawdown, |
| 45 | 00:08:23 --> 00:08:31 | that is the same logic I gave in each model, so we're going to use the same reduced risk approach I taught you in each previous model. So it's nothing new |
| 46 | 00:08:31 --> 00:08:41 | that's required here. And what I mean by that, if you take a trade where you risk 2%, and you take a stop out or you lose the full 2%, your next trade has to |
| 47 | 00:08:41 --> 00:08:54 | be half of the leverage you used in the trade that you lost 2% on. If you make 50% or 1% Back in equity, then you can go back to 2%. But if you take another |
| 48 | 00:08:54 --> 00:09:02 | loss on your second trade, you're dropping down with half of that second trades leverage. And you keep doing that until you can go any lower and you stay there |
| 49 | 00:09:02 --> 00:09:13 | until you can recoup the 50% of the previous loss. That way you're creating that plateau effect not a roller coaster up and then down withdrawal down. You're |
| 50 | 00:09:13 --> 00:09:20 | seeing it go up in equity and equity. And if you have a loss, okay, it's a small loss, it's maximum on the first one, then you might have another losing trade, |
| 51 | 00:09:21 --> 00:09:34 | but it'd be less so in theory it's 2% 1% a half percent a quarter percent, a quarter percent and so you obviously make 50% of the previous loss. So it keeps |
| 52 | 00:09:34 --> 00:09:49 | you from having a blowout pm session setup. We've already covered the morning session to now we're looking at the afternoon. If bearish. We look for a by side |
| 53 | 00:09:49 --> 00:10:04 | liquidity raid on the am session highs or lunch hour highs. If the drop after by side liquidity is purged It creates displacement lower and has a fair value gap. |
| 54 | 00:10:04 --> 00:10:13 | This is ideal. Yes, that is a typo where it says by side liquidity in purged creates. And I'm going to have to deal with this and you're gonna have to deal |
| 55 | 00:10:13 --> 00:10:25 | with it too. So cope, okay, take a dose of opium and accept the fact that I'm imperfect on human and I'm gonna have to just let that typo exist, I could fix |
| 56 | 00:10:25 --> 00:10:35 | it, I could go in here and fix it and be a hero for you. Or I could do therapy and just say, You know what, it's not going to hurt nobody, you know what it |
| 57 | 00:10:35 --> 00:10:48 | should mean? You know what it should say, and I'm making more of it than I should write. If bullish, we look for a sell side liquidity raid on the am |
| 58 | 00:10:48 --> 00:10:59 | session lows, or launch our lows, okay, we're gonna launch our lows between 12 o'clock and one o'clock, New York level time. If there's a swing low or a swing |
| 59 | 00:10:59 --> 00:11:09 | high. Inside that hour, I'm watching that one. Now if it's relative equal lows or relative equal highs that were made in the morning session prior to going |
| 60 | 00:11:09 --> 00:11:18 | into lunch at noon, I'm going to be really interested in those getting tagged not just a lunch hour higher low. Okay, so there's precedents that's established |
| 61 | 00:11:18 --> 00:11:30 | on morning session than that of the our price action between 12 and one there will be times where there is a absence of relative equal highs and or relative |
| 62 | 00:11:30 --> 00:11:38 | equal lows in the morning session there'll be just a single high or it could create relative equal highs in that lunch hour it's rare but it can happen but |
| 63 | 00:11:38 --> 00:11:50 | if there's absence of relative equal highs or lows in the morning session, I'm going to elect to use the higher low inside lunch hour very simple rules. And if |
| 64 | 00:11:50 --> 00:12:06 | the rally after sell side liquidity is not in is purged creates displacement higher and has a fair value got this as ideal. Alright, the entry if bearish is |
| 65 | 00:12:06 --> 00:12:15 | redundant now but this is how it's spelled out for you. Play sell limit order at the high of the discount low at the fair value get on the five down to one |
| 66 | 00:12:15 --> 00:12:30 | minute chart, whichever one forms the Vega. Stop Loss is placed at the low the premium high and the fair value get used for the setup. If bullish, please buy |
| 67 | 00:12:30 --> 00:12:38 | limit order at the low of the premium high at the fair value gap on the five minute down to one minute chart that form in other words, wherever the fair Vega |
| 68 | 00:12:38 --> 00:12:48 | forms first, going down from five minutes to one, that's the one you're going to use. stop losses placed at the high of the discount. Well, the fair value got |
| 69 | 00:12:48 --> 00:13:04 | used for the setup. We're going down the homestretch folks that was a painless profit taking logic. We are looking to take profits at opposing PD arrays. What |
| 70 | 00:13:04 --> 00:13:16 | does that mean? We're looking if we're bearish, the ride a swing lower intraday to get below equilibrium into a discount. If we're bullish. We're looking for |
| 71 | 00:13:16 --> 00:13:34 | ride higher and intraday price swings above equilibrium to a premium PV array. The targets on short positions any discount PV array at or the closest under |
| 72 | 00:13:35 --> 00:13:55 | equilibrium of the dealing range under previous session lows under previous day low inside the fair value gap for fair value gaps for there may be multiple ones |
| 73 | 00:13:55 --> 00:14:10 | below equilibrium. Under any of the above, suggested PD arrays, meaning if there is a fair value gap below previous day's low or previous day's session low for |
| 74 | 00:14:10 --> 00:14:21 | the same previous session low. There's an additional one I just gave you audibly. It's not in the text here. That we have multiple targets you can do |
| 75 | 00:14:21 --> 00:14:31 | partials. partials is a skill set that you're going to have to acquire. And it's a unique personal thing. There is no hard and fast rule is going to fit every |
| 76 | 00:14:31 --> 00:14:39 | single one of you. So you have to sit down and figure out what's the lowest hanging fruit for you. And be content with that. And experience will be the |
| 77 | 00:14:39 --> 00:14:46 | guide on how you're going to evolve from that I promise you, you'll come up with your own way of doing it. And even when you get good at it, you'll still not |
| 78 | 00:14:46 --> 00:14:56 | really be fully satisfied. Because you're gonna always see some kind of experience making a deposit in your understanding what you're doing and how you |
| 79 | 00:14:56 --> 00:15:03 | navigate and take profits. Again, I've made it to you openly that's To the weakest part of me as a traitor, I'm never content with my actions and you've |
| 80 | 00:15:03 --> 00:15:12 | seen them. You know, in in layman's eyes, it looks phenomenal. But to me for knowing us 30 years, I'm not satisfied with it. So I'm always working towards |
| 81 | 00:15:12 --> 00:15:22 | trying to improve that. Sticking to the rules, but I'm always looking for ways that I can find a secret shortcut, if you will, to get to a better way of being |
| 82 | 00:15:23 --> 00:15:34 | consistently precision oriented targets that deliver more accurately than I already have. And I might not find it, it might not exist. For me, you might |
| 83 | 00:15:34 --> 00:15:50 | find it for you to input. The targets on long positions, any premium PD array at or the closest above equilibrium of the dealing range. above previous session |
| 84 | 00:15:50 --> 00:15:59 | highs. That means if we're trading, obviously, in the pm session, we're looking at the am session. If we're looking at the am session, we're looking at |
| 85 | 00:15:59 --> 00:16:14 | yesterday's pm session. So I wasn't making that clear earlier, but now just did above previous day's highs inside the fair pay gap or fair value gaps above any |
| 86 | 00:16:14 --> 00:16:27 | of the above suggested PV arrays. So what we're looking for is the market reaching up into extreme premium levels, where there's a fair value gap, where |
| 87 | 00:16:27 --> 00:16:39 | there is an order block where there is fair value gaps that may exist. beyond the scope of the session, you're trading the previous day's session and or the |
| 88 | 00:16:39 --> 00:16:48 | previous day's high. So you're really getting near where by sight is and you may break the feeling range and have to look at the previous day, or even the day |
| 89 | 00:16:48 --> 00:16:51 | behind that. Depending on how strong the markets moving. |
| 90 | 00:16:57 --> 00:17:11 | Where to anticipate trades am session at 8:30am Eastern Time news or embargo lifts. When high or medium impact news is released. Obviously, you know that |
| 91 | 00:17:11 --> 00:17:23 | when I was shared on the YouTube channel model at 9:30am, eastern time when US equities markets open that was shared on the YouTube channel as well. At 10am, |
| 92 | 00:17:23 --> 00:17:34 | Eastern Time, after the first 30 minutes, sentiment is established due to swing. Okay, sometimes it'll fall near In other words, what I'm saying is, if you're |
| 93 | 00:17:34 --> 00:17:45 | looking for the setup, start looking at it around 830. You can form early, then at 930. If it hasn't formed yet, if it hasn't formed at the 930 Our the |
| 94 | 00:17:45 --> 00:17:54 | immediate Judas swing at 10 o'clock, that time window, then start hunting and again. Now what you're continuously looking at the clock, and you're gauging has |
| 95 | 00:17:54 --> 00:18:05 | it formed, it has it formed at each one you're going through expecting it to form at 10:30am. Eastern time after the first 60 minutes opening range is |
| 96 | 00:18:05 --> 00:18:13 | established. So yeah, that first hour is trading that's going to be influential throughout the rest of the day. And potentially the rest of the week. Hint Hint, |
| 97 | 00:18:14 --> 00:18:26 | nudge nudge, there's something for you to mind right there. So at 1030 If it hasn't formed yet, that's kind of like the last opportunity for it. Until we get |
| 98 | 00:18:26 --> 00:18:38 | to 11am Eastern Standard Time, on days of the week that offer conditions for market reversals, that would be Thursday and Friday. So in other words, I'm not |
| 99 | 00:18:38 --> 00:18:47 | really excited about taking 11 o'clock setups unless it's Thursday, Friday, and we might be having TGIF conditions where it comes back into the weekly range. Or |
| 100 | 00:18:47 --> 00:18:57 | we're looking at a longer term market reversal. It's gone up to a shorting opportunity on our timeframe. And long term, higher timeframe we're looking to |
| 101 | 00:18:57 --> 00:19:06 | go lower, I could use that Levin o'clock to get in sync with what is typically referred to in our group as the London close time. So there's a lot of factors |
| 102 | 00:19:06 --> 00:19:16 | that treat that 11 o'clock, as a market reversal. So if it's setting up at 11 o'clock, chances are not all the time but chances are if it's day of the week, |
| 103 | 00:19:16 --> 00:19:32 | Thursday or Friday that could be a market reversal profile unfolding, and then leading into TGIF pm session at 130 Eastern time, when New York lunch volume |
| 104 | 00:19:32 --> 00:19:43 | completes, and volatility returns intraday that was shared on the YouTube channel at two o'clock Eastern time, when pm trends start to unfold and |
| 105 | 00:19:43 --> 00:19:58 | potential am stops are purged could be the lunch hour stops as well. At 2:30pm Eastern time when the final two hours of trading begins. The speaking of the day |
| 106 | 00:19:58 --> 00:20:15 | session for New York trading At 3pm, Eastern Time, final hour of day session trading ends for New York. And 330 Eastern Time market on clothes conditions |
| 107 | 00:20:15 --> 00:20:28 | begin these last two, if you are a very very proficient scalper, and you're working with 32nd Woman at charts, you can find this setup just about every |
| 108 | 00:20:28 --> 00:20:39 | single day. In the last hour trading, it's going to demand high level of precision and nimbleness that most of you probably don't have yet. But it's |
| 109 | 00:20:39 --> 00:20:49 | something you can mind and study. Okay, I do a lot of really ultra short term trading in that last hour of trading on the index futures. And literally, |
| 110 | 00:20:50 --> 00:20:58 | there's a lot of wonderful explosive price action moves that occur in that last hour of trading, which I've also hinted at on the YouTube channel. But here is |
| 111 | 00:20:58 --> 00:21:07 | these elements that work towards breaking down your day, you're not going to get a setup, obviously, every single one of these you're working through day, |
| 112 | 00:21:07 --> 00:21:14 | Saturday at 830. In the morning, I'm looking forward to set up for that and set up and waiting for 930 at 9:30am Wait for the server doesn't wait until 10 |
| 113 | 00:21:14 --> 00:21:24 | o'clock. So gives me that what patients I'm waiting for the algorithm the key off of these times, these times are based on what I'm showing you here. Now, |
| 114 | 00:21:25 --> 00:21:36 | with everything else I've taught you with algorithmic theory, these are the times that are highly specific to index futures and what it's leaning on, okay |
| 115 | 00:21:36 --> 00:21:47 | as to why or what's the catalyst behind it. Not invitations that trigger a trade every single time. Every one of these time windows begin, okay, it's not like |
| 116 | 00:21:47 --> 00:21:55 | you're gonna get what's at five setups in the morning. And then five setups in the afternoon. Don't think of it like that. Think of it is that you're looking |
| 117 | 00:21:55 --> 00:22:04 | for that one good setup that's forming for each session respectively, am or pm. But you're looking for that one choice setup that is in alignment with your |
| 118 | 00:22:04 --> 00:22:13 | bias. Obviously lines up with the narrative of the day you're looking for inside the weekly rains profile that you've been studying. And everything just makes |
| 119 | 00:22:13 --> 00:22:21 | sense where to be running to a specific price level to one side, it's not easy to make this setup go the other direction in terms of analysis. So you have one |
| 120 | 00:22:21 --> 00:22:31 | sidedness. That's high probability. Use these elements of time for that to make it a little bit better for you for selecting your setups. And I think that's |
| 121 | 00:22:31 --> 00:22:39 | going to be it folks. And obviously, it doesn't scratch the itch if you've never really studied the model, or if you've never gone through the 41 videos on the |
| 122 | 00:22:39 --> 00:22:46 | YouTube channel with the 2022 free mentorship. But I promise you if you haven't done it, if you go through that and come back to this, this here opens up a |
| 123 | 00:22:46 --> 00:22:52 | whole different perspective of that model. Hopefully you found this insightful. Until next time, be safe |