LostAndFound-030815.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-11-10 06:40

Outline

00:59 - The US Dollar and the Dollar Index.

06:08 - Looking for existing order blocks in the market.

13:14 - Where do you think the dollar would be reaching for minimal upside objective?

18:46 - What I did last week -.

25:38 - What’s going on in the market.

30:32 - What’s going on in the market.

34:38 - The low of the cable -.

39:31 - Don’t get stuck looking at the lower timeframes and assuming you’re wrong.

45:27 - We are trading in the same realm as the banks -.

50:33 - If there is money to be made, they will break the rules to get that money.

55:51 - Wherever the money is, it’s going to be taken.

01:01:17 - Why you have to keep your risk small.

Transcription

1 00:00:59,220 --> 00:01:10,740 ICT: Hello, folks, longtime new see, okay, we're gonna be looking at a few things regarding the US dollar. And some of the trades I took last week, give
2 00:01:10,740 --> 00:01:21,360 you a little review as to what I did and what I wasn't successful at and what I was successful at. And then we're gonna give a little bit of a forecast as to
3 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:30,750 where we may be going over the next month to three months. Okay, that might be a little bit more insightful to you. So just looking in the rearview mirror, I
4 00:01:30,750 --> 00:01:41,160 want to bring your attention to the dollar index. Now I'm looking at the cash index, you can see this chart on bar chart.com. If you go into their select
5 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:50,670 commodity area over here, go down to the US dollar, and then open up a little chart over here, click on it. And then once that chart opens up, you'll click on
6 00:01:50,700 --> 00:02:00,600 interactive and interactive will give you the options to do you're about to see me do here. Okay, and clearly, obviously, we've been we've been bullish the
7 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:13,500 dollar in here. And since the springtime of last year 2014. And we have maintained a bullish stance, and the dollar, and a lot of questions I've been
8 00:02:13,500 --> 00:02:22,860 getting in email. And I'm gonna be answering another question I got as it relates to black swan events later on in the towards the end of the video. But
9 00:02:23,100 --> 00:02:37,980 as it relates to the dollar, everyone's asking is this pretty much is over. And this is the reason why I tell folks, I do not try to buck or look for reversals
10 00:02:38,250 --> 00:02:51,930 in primary trends because they are fixed to go a lot longer than we may view in our own analysis. Okay. In other words, my mentor, Larry Williams made a very
11 00:02:52,410 --> 00:03:04,020 lasting impression on me with one of the comments he made in one of his webinars. Not webinars, seminars, it was post, it was pre webinar times, we
12 00:03:04,020 --> 00:03:18,210 didn't really have the advantages that you guys have today. But in the seminar setting, he made a remark stating that when we are in primary bull or bear
13 00:03:18,210 --> 00:03:28,590 markets, when you're right, you really want to just wrap your arms around it, close your eyes, and wake up about three to six months later down the road. And
14 00:03:28,770 --> 00:03:37,650 many times if you do that, in primary trends, it's very profitable. The problem is it's very difficult to do that because we'd like to look at the daily
15 00:03:37,650 --> 00:03:46,860 fluctuations and assume, simply because there's a strong pullback or retracement. That's pretty much the end. And the trend is now petering out. And
16 00:03:46,860 --> 00:04:01,080 his comment was, they will always go farther than you thought they would. Okay. And that's pretty much the the hardest thing for me in my trading over the last
17 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:15,750 20 plus years is really trying to fine tune that. It's one of those things that I haven't cracked yet. I always can find myself in a primary trend in some
18 00:04:15,750 --> 00:04:29,280 capacity or another. But I cannot, with a great deal of accuracy, predict major market reversals, not to a level where I would be willing to brag about it and
19 00:04:29,280 --> 00:04:39,180 let's just say that, not to the degree that I am with my intraday and short term trading let's put it that way. But as it relates to the dollar index, you can
20 00:04:39,180 --> 00:04:51,390 see we had moved in this rather large trading range in here and the market had come down and moved into a previous order block, rallied off, moved in
21 00:04:51,390 --> 00:05:04,950 consolidation and then rallied off now before all these big moves took place in the dollar index. We were already bullish on the dollar. So there were four, we
22 00:05:04,950 --> 00:05:15,360 would be bearish in the euro and Canadian dollar and I'm not sorry. I'm sorry, not Canadian dollar. Well, yeah, the Canadian dollar, but the British pound,
23 00:05:15,750 --> 00:05:16,830 because that's the two pairs, we
24 00:05:16,830 --> 00:05:26,730 predominantly trade in the ICT camp. Not that you can't trade my concepts and other pairs, but we like to keep our universe pretty small. Using the dollar as
25 00:05:26,730 --> 00:05:39,300 our barometer. Now the question is, since we've had this pretty much one way move in the dollar with you, you want her to respectable retracements and it's
26 00:05:39,300 --> 00:05:51,960 up move and uptrend is the question is this is it over? And I will submit to you that I don't believe we are okay, we are not at the end of the voice cycle in
27 00:05:51,990 --> 00:06:01,260 the dollar. And I'm gonna give you a few reasons why I believe that and where I believe that the dollar may be ultimately reaching for so that way we can kind
28 00:06:01,260 --> 00:06:09,480 of like build a model with all of our other currency pairs because I don't believe that we found the low in fiber and cable just yet. Okay, we're gonna
29 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:21,990 talk about that later on, as we get through this video. Now, obviously, if you've been through my, my teachings as of late, you'll understand that we like
30 00:06:21,990 --> 00:06:32,160 to look for existing order blocks. Okay, now the order blocks will be enough candle for a bearish order block and a down candle for a bullish order block.
31 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:44,640 And we'd like to see a move sharply away from these respective levels. Now, all this down, move in here, see all these red candles in here. Okay, I want you to
32 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:57,690 focus on this green candle right here. This is the only bullish and it's not really that bullish really bullish candle that we have prior to this high, okay,
33 00:06:57,690 --> 00:07:07,410 to the left of this high here. Okay, this is it. That's it. That's all we have. Okay, and the dollar is just now starting to clear out these highs in here.
34 00:07:08,250 --> 00:07:15,750 We're going to challenge this high back here. Okay. And then ultimately, we're going to be reaching for this level here. Okay.
35 00:07:30,269 --> 00:07:50,039 It would probably be more beneficial if we were looking at the present. Market action. Okay, here we go. Now, now we're, now we're up to snuff. Okay, now,
36 00:07:50,369 --> 00:07:56,129 we've cleared out this high here, I was looking at that, as I'm talking to you, I'm like, wait, I mean, I knew we're past this, this doesn't make any sense. So
37 00:07:56,129 --> 00:08:07,769 I apologize for that guys got a little ahead of myself. The the highs have been cleared out here. Now we have moved with one sided price action here. But we
38 00:08:07,769 --> 00:08:15,479 have yet to make it up to this bearish order block. Again, it's the bullish candle prior to the down moves, okay? Because we understand that Smart Money
39 00:08:15,479 --> 00:08:26,639 sells and up moving markets because he has to get that liquidity, okay, and have to see the market go in the opposite direction to their intended trade
40 00:08:26,639 --> 00:08:33,989 direction. So if they want to be short, they're gonna be selling into rallies, okay? Because they need that liquidity that will be formed by those folks that
41 00:08:33,989 --> 00:08:43,679 want to be buying as the market is higher as the market participants Chase higher prices, they'll be buying who's selling it to them smart money, okay, so
42 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:54,209 they're accumulating short positions as it does and then ultimately, the price doesn't move higher in those participants that had gone long, are sorry to say
43 00:08:55,289 --> 00:09:06,149 not too happy about it. Then ultimately, we have this candle here. That was the precursor prior to this big down move here. Okay, so now, what we're going to do
44 00:09:06,149 --> 00:09:23,129 is we're going to put on a fib and we'll use the high and we'll drag it down to the low right there. Okay, and what we've done is we've identified this range
45 00:09:23,129 --> 00:09:33,479 from the low to the high. Okay, and now look what we have here. We have the bullish candle. Okay, which is our bearish order block residing inside of 62 and
46 00:09:33,479 --> 00:09:45,989 77 treatment levels respectively. This is optimal trade entry. Okay. We are not in that area yet. Okay. 50% level, it doesn't do anything for us. Okay. We don't
47 00:09:45,989 --> 00:09:53,939 have any faith in the 50% level except for measuring equilibrium. This is not equilibrium. Okay, we're in a trending market. So what it's going to be doing is
48 00:09:53,969 --> 00:10:06,569 gonna be looking for deep retracements 62%. So that's retracement. Okay. Now Now, ultimately, we could see this thing come all the way back up and take into
49 00:10:06,569 --> 00:10:19,739 consideration this bullish candle or bearish order block. And ultimately may even swing through these highs. That's the long long term three, six months even
50 00:10:19,769 --> 00:10:25,649 could be before we get to that level, okay? And that could be what we see in 2015.
51 00:10:26,730 --> 00:10:38,130 Now, what does that spell for all the other currencies? Well, it spells a world of pain, okay, it's gonna be a lot of downward pressure on the foreign
52 00:10:38,130 --> 00:10:50,640 currencies. And, with with this in mind, okay, what I'm going to say is this, we may run up into the 60% 62%, trace my ones a little bit above, maybe go into one
53 00:10:50,640 --> 00:11:02,910 or twos to 105 80. Now me specifically gun to my head, I like 105 ad. Okay, so if you want to be on record, as to what I think may be the upside objective for
54 00:11:02,910 --> 00:11:16,710 the dollar, it's 105. Ad. Okay. So that's where my mindset is for the dollar. Now, that's my intermediate term to near term upside objective. Now will we
55 00:11:16,770 --> 00:11:25,230 likely see retracements from where we're at now, to that level, sugar, obviously, any healthy uptrend, we'll see those types of things. But ultimately,
56 00:11:25,530 --> 00:11:33,900 okay, and this is where we'll talk more about this in the market maker series. And the last three volumes, we're actually specifically talking about what I do
57 00:11:33,900 --> 00:11:44,040 how I do it, and specifically going through step by step procedures. When we look at these higher timeframe, charts, this is the the most paramount thing you
58 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:52,410 need to be focusing on. And why it's so important to be looking at these higher timeframe charts is because you want to identify where price is most likely
59 00:11:52,440 --> 00:12:03,480 reaching for, okay, it's not so important what price is doing right now. Okay, a lot of the emails I get, and questions I get are, you know, I need to know what
60 00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:13,590 it's doing today? No, you don't, you need to know what it's going to be likely to do over the next several weeks. Okay, with the minimum, the minimum
61 00:12:13,590 --> 00:12:20,880 expectancy is a week, where do you think this mark is going to be reaching for over the course of a week? And the reason why I teach that one shot, one kill
62 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:29,910 principle is because it forces you to look beyond today's five minute chart. Okay? Because if you get fixated on these little short term timeframes, one
63 00:12:29,910 --> 00:12:39,450 minute, five minute charts, 15 minutes, even an hourly chart, without a higher timeframe, context in mind, you're going to be losing all of the perspective
64 00:12:39,450 --> 00:12:55,470 that's necessary to have the highest probabilities to see very sharp advances in price action in your favor. Okay. And if we have a perspective, at least three
65 00:12:55,470 --> 00:13:10,290 months out, okay, where price may be reaching for that is a huge advantage in your in your corner as it were, for trading. Price Action, because you're going
66 00:13:10,290 --> 00:13:19,530 to be looking for what is price most likely trying to reach for? Okay. And, obviously, you know, they'll give you a small example here, when price was down
67 00:13:19,530 --> 00:13:25,350 here, and it rallied off and came back down and started the rally up. Where do you think would it be reaching for minimal upside objective? Obviously, these
68 00:13:25,350 --> 00:13:33,390 old highs back here? Well, we've made short work of that went right through it, but nonetheless, back in here, okay, we would know and upside objective minimum,
69 00:13:33,630 --> 00:13:43,140 okay, would be look for that one. I'm sorry, that 87 to 88, upside, objectives, these old highs in here, and then ultimately, he clings through those, this high
70 00:13:43,140 --> 00:13:57,450 here. Okay. But since we've broken through those, we may come back come back down into the levels here seeing around the what is that the 9260 it could be at
71 00:13:57,450 --> 00:14:12,930 9250s to 90 to 80, we could come back down into and you know, find some some support should be come back and and find some retracements, if you will, and
72 00:14:12,930 --> 00:14:25,680 then obviously see a continuation on the upside going in to the latter months of spring or early summer. I do have a high level of confidence that we will see
73 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:37,860 the 100 level breached on the dollar with absolute certainty I have that in my gut, that it's gonna it's going to at least do that. But I still like I said I
74 00:14:37,860 --> 00:14:46,650 like 105 ed as an upside objective. So there's where we're at as it relates to the dollar. So now with all that, let's get that out of the way and go over to
75 00:14:46,650 --> 00:14:56,280 Mt four. And we're going to look at this timeframe. Let's go out to a daily
76 00:15:02,639 --> 00:15:20,489 Okay, and let's get this little cleaner. Okay, this is what we've been involved in since the spring of 2014. And we were bullish on slack here. Okay, and it's
77 00:15:20,489 --> 00:15:35,219 been maintaining its upward trend since then, rather impressively, actually. But let's take a look at how we view Okay, smart money's buying sell programs. Okay,
78 00:15:35,249 --> 00:15:47,489 we are looking at obviously, a very long term trend following approach. And it's utilizing the 18, EMA, which is your green level here. Okay, and then you have
79 00:15:47,489 --> 00:15:59,789 the 40 Ema. Okay. And what this is, is is a fund managers approach to quantifying long term trends. It's all it's all it is. It's simple as that. Now,
80 00:15:59,939 --> 00:16:08,489 don't get into the argument with folks like I get your scores of these every time I open up my email box, I get folks that say, well, you're teaching moving
81 00:16:08,489 --> 00:16:15,989 average crossovers. Actually, I'm not I'm not taught I could care less about the crossover, what I want to see is I want to see the averages opening up, okay,
82 00:16:15,989 --> 00:16:22,679 when they open up like this, they start stacking, okay, so what it's called, when you have to open up start widening, and they both point in the same
83 00:16:22,679 --> 00:16:32,609 direction. It tells me obviously, very quick, easy way of determining where's the upside momentum? Well, I'm sorry, Where's, where's the momentum? Clearly,
84 00:16:32,609 --> 00:16:42,449 it's up. Okay. And what I like to see is I want to see price, respect these levels. Okay, you can see how the 40 actually creates a dynamic there, I say it
85 00:16:42,659 --> 00:16:52,349 trendline Okay, finds support, typically around those levels, and many times is very good, strong tendency to find short term in day trades when price gets to
86 00:16:52,349 --> 00:17:03,149 the 18 Ema. Okay, and we'll talk about that later on as it relates to the market maker series in those videos, not this one. And you can see obviously, during
87 00:17:03,149 --> 00:17:14,459 this consolidation in here, price was still in a buy program for the dollar. And if we go down to our day trading model, you can still see that the averages were
88 00:17:14,459 --> 00:17:23,339 still not crossed, still above each one on one another, and then continued higher, okay, so as long as the average is like this 18 above the 40 and
89 00:17:23,339 --> 00:17:39,899 stacking, we are looking for buy signals in the dollar. Okay, so now let's move on over to the euro. Okay, now, this chart is going to look eerily similar to
90 00:17:40,619 --> 00:17:50,849 the comments I made live during a webinar a couple of weeks back, and a lot of you folks were there. And I did not record it, but I know the recording was
91 00:17:50,849 --> 00:18:03,779 made. And I believe it was shared on FX gears dot coms forum. Unfortunately, I didn't have the foresight to get that link ahead of this production. So when
92 00:18:03,779 --> 00:18:15,269 you're watching this later on, if you get a chance this mosey on over to FX gears.com. Or send a tweet requesting you know, not requesting but posting the
93 00:18:15,269 --> 00:18:24,089 link if you know right away what it is and I'll just retweet it so everyone can see. The it's it's a rather long webinar, but I got a lot of questions as to
94 00:18:24,089 --> 00:18:35,009 where I thought that euro and cable would go. And we're down here to these levels where we were talking about before and that recording and we're looking
95 00:18:35,009 --> 00:18:46,769 at probably one oh two's most likely coming in that in that area ultimately, should the dollar move to the levels that we were talking about earlier. Now
96 00:18:46,769 --> 00:18:56,969 let's look at what I did last week before we start talking about what's going to happen ahead of next week or the week we're in actually right now. This chart
97 00:18:56,969 --> 00:19:10,529 here is what I tweeted last week and I was expecting price to move up into this area here sweep the stops these are very very clean highs here just didn't get
98 00:19:10,529 --> 00:19:22,979 it I had a sell order just six pips or so above this high and it just simply didn't get it and unfortunately that was upsetting for me because I really had I
99 00:19:22,979 --> 00:19:36,839 gotten that I would have been high the week because it was just steady going lower. Now the on Tuesday actually took a short and here I sold into this
100 00:19:37,169 --> 00:19:52,469 bullish candle here which is a bearish order block as price moved back into it here. I saw right into it there and I had a trade really move in my favor. Where
101 00:19:52,469 --> 00:19:53,039 I had
102 00:19:54,750 --> 00:20:04,830 the moment one moment I looked at it I was up like 19 pips, okay and my stop I moved to breakeven, and I just simply just didn't, didn't monitor, it didn't
103 00:20:04,830 --> 00:20:12,060 care, you know, I thought, you know, ultimately, we were just gonna move from these levels here. And I thought I was pretty solid, I had the, you know, the
104 00:20:12,060 --> 00:20:21,990 weekly range identified and we were going to be moving lower. So therefore, I wanted to, you know, just be at breakeven, at worst case scenario, and just ride
105 00:20:21,990 --> 00:20:32,460 it out. Well, it didn't work out that way. It came all the way up and actually cleared out the day, initial high here, and then moved lower sharply. And then
106 00:20:32,490 --> 00:20:46,500 obviously, you can see on your own charts as well, we did move precipitously lower. I didn't do anything else. With the fiber, I had a breakeven here and a
107 00:20:46,500 --> 00:21:00,630 missed opportunity back here. We went into the market on the cable. Let's go over here. This is the chart I tweeted as well on Monday of last week. And that
108 00:21:00,630 --> 00:21:15,810 was March 2, let me get this thing off here, because this is going to drive me nuts if I don't. Okay, and what we were looking at was, or what I was looking at
109 00:21:15,810 --> 00:21:28,890 Asus rephrase that. I was anticipating a rally. Okay, on Monday going into Tuesday. And I was anticipating this, this is exactly what I was looking for.
110 00:21:29,010 --> 00:21:39,240 And I didn't really make this clear in my tweet the other day, but this is what I was talking about. Okay, I was using this range here. Okay. And what I wanted
111 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:49,890 to see was I wanted to see price. From here, I wanted to be long here, I wanted to rally up into the 154 80, then I was gonna look for a smaller short term
112 00:21:49,890 --> 00:21:58,080 optimal trade entry to go short, hopefully nailing down the weekly high. That was what I was trading, this is what I was looking at, okay, I was looking at
113 00:21:58,110 --> 00:22:07,560 that mindset. Also, by going up to 154 80, it would have cleared out these highs in here where any stocks would have been resting. Okay. And then also when it
114 00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:17,460 came back into this range here, and let's go back over here, come back to this level as well. Okay, so that's what I was anticipating that's what I was looking
115 00:22:17,460 --> 00:22:28,680 for. But obviously, you know, the Mark came down, took out my staff took a loss of 15 pips wasn't a big deal. But apparently, for one guy on the internet, it
116 00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:37,620 was a big deal. That took a loss. Okay, but it was good for you guys to see it. You know, I tweeted that I was long. And you guys saw that I did take the loss.
117 00:22:37,650 --> 00:22:49,680 Okay. And ultimately, you know, that's a good thing for everyone. Because you get to see that I'm not. I'm not omnipotent. Okay, as much as some of the guys
118 00:22:49,680 --> 00:23:02,250 like to make me out to be. And sometimes I do agree with you. Because, you know, I do have an ego the size of Baltimore. The, the, the idea of taking a loss is
119 00:23:02,250 --> 00:23:11,640 not any big deal to me at all, it really isn't a big deal. It shouldn't be a big deal to you either. Because if your risk is monitored, okay, manage, you know,
120 00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:25,560 in a realistic fashion, a loss is going to be actually insightful to you. Okay. And I'm going to show you you why it was useful. Okay, for me. Down in here,
121 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:38,400 this is where the stops are resting. Okay. And I wanted to I wanted to look for a long, okay. If I took a loss here, I knew the likelihood would be that if we
122 00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:51,570 took out the stops here, if we came back up into that same area up in here, okay. What do you see on this chart? That would be a indication that yes, I was
123 00:23:51,570 --> 00:24:04,980 wrong going long. But how can we use that insight? Okay, if you haven't been through the fifth installment of the market maker collection, as it is right
124 00:24:04,980 --> 00:24:06,330 now, okay.
125 00:24:07,740 --> 00:24:17,610 Stop this video, don't watch any more of this one. Okay, because it won't make any sense to you. But if you go to the market maker, volume five, watch that and
126 00:24:17,610 --> 00:24:23,460 then come back to where we're at right now. And I know you aren't going to listen, just gonna watch the rest of the video because it's not gonna be that
127 00:24:23,460 --> 00:24:33,570 much longer to it. But you'll understand what I'm explaining. Okay, I'm not making this up to make this fit for this, you know, this example. Okay, because
128 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:43,080 I get a lot of these emails as well. You know, I think it's the same one or two people, okay. And they sent it to me from these goofy email addresses. But
129 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:50,040 they'll remark and say that I cherry pick and I'm not It's not cherry picking. This is exactly what I teach in that series. This is what I've been teaching for
130 00:24:50,040 --> 00:25:01,410 years. Okay. This is what you're looking for. And this is the reason why I say you do not need to fear taking a loss. If you take a loss. That is You're paying
131 00:25:01,410 --> 00:25:12,630 a premium price for insight, much more valuable insight than it would be if you didn't take the trade. Okay. And I learned that from George and Jill. And it's
132 00:25:12,630 --> 00:25:25,410 absolutely true. If you take a loss, consider a premium paid for very, very valuable insight. Because now, you know, that along at this level did not work,
133 00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:32,760 obviously, okay, but the retail universe will say, Well, I took a loss there and now I'm going to pout, you know, I'm gonna go in the corner and sulk, or I'm
134 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:42,480 gonna get revenge and buy it again, down here. Okay? Don't do that. Don't do that. The stops are already been posted here. I had identified that in the, in
135 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:55,020 the tweet, let me get to sybok because it's no longer valid. It's no longer useful to us. Okay, so now we have the the staff down here had been raided. Did
136 00:25:55,020 --> 00:26:06,480 it? Did it shoot back up from that point here? No, it didn't. It went lower. Okay, so what does that telling you that this area of stocks was absorbed? Yes,
137 00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:16,740 it was taking out. But it was now also talking about the North it wasn't talking about Nam personifying the market now, the, the market was indicating, if you
138 00:26:16,740 --> 00:26:26,460 will, that it was wanting to go lower. Okay. And we had a break in market structure. The structure that was supported by these two lows here had been
139 00:26:26,460 --> 00:26:36,330 broken. Okay. And the idea of any stops that would be resting down here. New cell stops, if they were just coming down into cleaner sell stuff in them rally,
140 00:26:36,660 --> 00:26:47,730 that would have been indicated with a higher move here. And it didn't happen. Okay. So now, for those with the benefit of having seen market maker, volume
141 00:26:47,730 --> 00:26:59,490 five, we're going to now ask the question I started to before I got diverted and China Mickey guys go look at it before we talk about it here. What is this? What
142 00:26:59,490 --> 00:27:13,500 is this right here? Now, a lot of folks gonna say well, it's a short term low. Okay, or it's a it's a, it's a pivot, okay. Or it's a fractal low. What it is,
143 00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:34,560 is it is a breaker. A breaker. Okay. What was above this high here, stops, Mark came up, swept it, took it out and then came down. Now. gun to my head. Yes, I
144 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:42,960 was thinking about this. But I was more inclined to expect this range in here to get filled up and take out these highs, I thought they were gonna be more likely
145 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:50,310 take them out. Before we started moving lower. But done in my head. I was looking at this and it was as soon as I put the trade on, I was thinking myself,
146 00:27:50,340 --> 00:27:59,310 you know, what if that's really what's going on here, but it is what it is I took the trade. I posted it, I had my convictions and I stuck with it. It
147 00:27:59,310 --> 00:28:11,040 resulted in a loss. Big deal. Okay, but now watch what happens. This low in here, the down candle, which is a bullish order block. Okay. We look at that,
148 00:28:11,310 --> 00:28:20,850 after the fact when we see a move, come down and blow through it. Look back in hindsight, yes, it's going to look like this. That is valuable right there.
149 00:28:20,850 --> 00:28:30,210 That's huge insight right there. Because the loads have been taken out. Okay, we know that they took two stops here. So we got to go back to this area right here
150 00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:37,800 because this is where they bought to take those stops out right there's where they clear to stop so to go back to the previous swing the down candle right
151 00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:53,070 there that candle right there is where you want to be shorting at a later time should we get back to that level So now watch what we do put it right on our
152 00:28:53,700 --> 00:29:06,840 down candle see that it's all we did we just know you probably can't see I mean zoom a little bit more Okay, so we have
153 00:29:08,700 --> 00:29:25,800 the down candle down candle prior to the move, clearing up stops. So now I'm going to take this off and we're going to extend we're going to extend that
154 00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:44,490 that waterblock in time. Okay, so now watch what happens. Price trades lower. Nine worried about it not worried about not worried about not worried about but
155 00:29:44,490 --> 00:29:56,610 I have a pending order now to sell it at 153 85 That's where I want to get shorter. Okay, I want to get short there. I want to get in before it gets up at
156 00:29:56,610 --> 00:30:07,380 that level. Okay, I want to get into it before it does that because we won't always get the actual high and you should want to get the actual high as long as
157 00:30:07,380 --> 00:30:18,540 you get a, an area that's right at or very close to it. Okay, we're only talking about 1520 pips. Okay? potential risk. If this is where we're going to get short
158 00:30:18,540 --> 00:30:36,270 at, it shouldn't have much move beyond that. Now watch trace price trades around, dilly dallying around. Boom. Right there. See that? And watch what
159 00:30:36,270 --> 00:30:47,910 happens. See what time of day it is. That's London Open that little blue line down here. That's what this is delineating the beginning of London Open Session.
160 00:30:48,300 --> 00:30:51,690 You see that? Now let's add to it
161 00:30:57,330 --> 00:31:14,520 the range 62% retracement level right here and right there, boom. Okay, price trades off, moves into consolidation. What are we hoping for the weekly range.
162 00:31:15,420 --> 00:31:32,610 Now that opportunity right there and later today. New York open. And in also overlapping into London close will enclose reversal market profile. More and
163 00:31:32,610 --> 00:31:41,640 more, just for the you know, the stops for those that are now in it. Good. I'll show you how to do one here. See how they're working that mitigation block right
164 00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:51,120 here or breaker. So in other words, what's happening is the ball here and in price broke down to the Unwind those positions that he went long here, down to
165 00:31:51,120 --> 00:32:01,050 the here, the undid it here, here and here and you're adding more shorts to it. So now what are they doing? There? It's a role reversal level. Okay. It's an
166 00:32:01,050 --> 00:32:12,780 inversion point where they were using by orders to take stops out. So they gotta unwind the Long's here sell it here. Go short. Work. More shorts in. Work more
167 00:32:12,780 --> 00:32:22,740 shorts in right there. Look what's going on there, guys. Okay, it's already in a video that's already been out there. Okay, this is this is the power of the
168 00:32:22,740 --> 00:32:33,750 concepts I'm sharing with you. This is how you look at institutional order flow. This is not Sam's supply and demand stuff. Okay. Did you can clearly see we're
169 00:32:33,750 --> 00:32:43,260 cutting through some candles, folks. This is what you view. Okay, with the X ray view how the market participants on the on the higher institutional level, we're
170 00:32:43,260 --> 00:32:50,220 talking about banks guys, we're not talking about willy nilly down the road. With his account with 500 bucks. We're talking about banks, large institutional
171 00:32:50,220 --> 00:33:01,020 funds. Okay. hedgers, those individuals have deep deep pockets. So they're going to have to work these levels multiple times to get the levels, the price and
172 00:33:01,020 --> 00:33:24,540 their positions. And ultimately, price starts to move down lower and then moves lower and lower. And lower. And lower. Now I know a lot of you folks that are
173 00:33:24,540 --> 00:33:38,010 new. This is going to seem like voodoo. Okay, but I can assure you that this is something that repeats itself almost daily. If you know what you're looking for
174 00:33:38,010 --> 00:33:52,740 it repeats itself almost daily. The Non Farm Payroll Friday. Okay, right in here. I tweeted that I was taking my profits at 151 68 Where is where I got out
175 00:33:52,770 --> 00:34:02,760 right in here. Okay, and it rallied up. What I anticipated would was that they were going to come back and take these clean highs with a stab up and then
176 00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:11,430 ultimately come down lower. But I was not willing to sit through all that and let them take away 100 pips. Even if it was just whipsaw action, I wasn't
177 00:34:11,430 --> 00:34:21,150 willing to do that. It did come back up rather sharply, came back to an old low and then sold off again, but we do not trade Non Farm Payroll. Non Farm Payroll
178 00:34:21,180 --> 00:34:33,180 is not for professionals. Okay, that's, that's the abbreviated NFP. You know, it's not for professionals. That's how I view it. So now looking at the
179 00:34:33,180 --> 00:34:57,240 timeframe on an hourly basis. Okay, and let's scrub this over a little bit more. Looking at price action like this. Okay, we have the market really reaching well
180 00:34:57,240 --> 00:35:11,190 beyond a 200% extension. And, and what I mean by that is this we have a low to high two on it now it's, it's really blown through that. So I suspect that we
181 00:35:11,190 --> 00:35:21,330 probably will chop and try to retrace a little bit. But do not be lulled into believing that we're forming a low yet. And the reason why is if we go if we go
182 00:35:21,330 --> 00:35:27,990 to a daily chart here, okay, we're back down in these lows, yes. Okay, but if we go down to a four hour chart
183 00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:40,590 we have moved into this order block right there
184 00:35:48,720 --> 00:36:00,600 down candle, use the high, that's your initial level to look for some sensitivity in in price. But more likely the the opening price I like that
185 00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:09,900 because it's the body of the candle, we like to look at that. But we may come back up a little bit and retrace into this range because obviously is it was
186 00:36:09,900 --> 00:36:20,730 very quick, and a lot of thin pores price action and air may look to get filled. But I don't believe that again that we're forming the low of the cable because I
187 00:36:20,730 --> 00:36:32,610 still ultimately think that the dollar is gonna go higher. Okay, so let's take a look at the way we got here
188 00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:46,530 this was the gap I was talking about as well, that we were coming back up to fill
189 00:37:00,510 --> 00:37:08,700 Okay, the bottom of the, the up candle here is the bearish order block. Now, you don't see the price action here because this platform was closed during the
190 00:37:08,700 --> 00:37:18,450 holiday season. But if you look at like TradingView, I posted a chart of that on Twitter, even though that there is an absence of the bar here. Soon as you
191 00:37:18,450 --> 00:37:29,010 started trading here, the true range, okay, is this day's close to this stays open. So even though you don't see a bar there, it needs to be considered.
192 00:37:29,220 --> 00:37:37,050 That's exactly what it would be, that's the bar that you would see, then that's the selling, that's the problem with this empty for platform, when they have a
193 00:37:37,050 --> 00:37:47,280 holiday or such, there will be a big gap like that. And you just got to view markets, like what I just described, the use of previous days, or periods close
194 00:37:48,450 --> 00:38:00,000 or low, you know, obviously and then the opening price or high. If it's down can i mean it down opening gap like this, you still have a even though you don't see
195 00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:11,160 it, but there's a range there, this is new trading. So price comes back up ultimately fills in that gap here. All this no trading activity seen here. You
196 00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:21,240 see it happening here, it come into it here, fill in a little bit here, came up to higher. So it got into this area here, this high here filled into this area
197 00:38:21,240 --> 00:38:32,730 here. This high closing the gap is entirely so all this range is fulfilled. So we have the range from this high down there looks low, ultimately closed in and
198 00:38:32,730 --> 00:38:45,930 that's why you're seeing this big extrapolated move lower. Now let's go back to the squat down to a five minute chart. And I'll show you how I mitigated the
199 00:38:45,930 --> 00:39:05,310 loss that took on the fiber. There's 15 pips and then this is not a big deal but to a lot of you guys out there tends to be you know, a question where we it's
200 00:39:05,310 --> 00:39:06,240 Friday
201 00:39:14,790 --> 00:39:28,800 okay, this little move in here. This little move in here, that's the only little price action that I took for the scalp to mitigate the 15 Pip loss. And that's
202 00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:41,760 all I was interested in 15 pips and didn't really move much beyond that. Anyway. So the the idea, again, the trades I took last week were obviously I wanted the
203 00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:52,860 higher, high to short from and the cable which didn't materialize, and I wanted to short, the Euro from a higher high that just barely missed its entry. Okay,
204 00:39:52,860 --> 00:40:10,230 so I was wrong on both instances there. And then I tried to go long, being real fancy about things. You saw how Fancy paid me took 15 pips from me the the
205 00:40:10,230 --> 00:40:33,300 market really has been looking to go a lot higher obviously, with the dollar. And when we have those scenarios when we have that as the the precursor to all
206 00:40:33,330 --> 00:40:43,560 price action as it relates to the currency markets, its import important that you don't get stuck looking at the lower timeframes. And assuming, like when I
207 00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:55,020 took too long in the cable, I honestly didn't think about me doing that trade and having any one suspect, you know, a duration for the trade. I just did it to
208 00:40:55,020 --> 00:41:02,970 show that I was, if I was going to be right, I was going to come back, okay, this is what I was doing. I was trying to scalp the initial run up, that would
209 00:41:02,970 --> 00:41:10,950 make the Judas for the week. Okay, in other words, the run up that makes the high of the week, I wanted to ride that up and then look for a sell later on the
210 00:41:10,950 --> 00:41:22,140 short from around the high to kind of like build up the premise that you don't need the bias. But unfortunately, this example doesn't show, you know, the
211 00:41:22,140 --> 00:41:32,250 effectiveness of trading without the bias. In fact, it really highlighted the handicap that it presents, which is something I've talked about before, but you
212 00:41:32,250 --> 00:41:41,160 don't really need it to take setups, if you if you're going to be just a price action trader, you can trade without a bias. Yes. But my question has always
213 00:41:41,160 --> 00:41:52,890 been, if you can discern a bias, why would you not want to trade only in that bias, and just filter out all those other trades, it just gives you a lot more
214 00:41:52,890 --> 00:42:01,380 confidence, especially if you're a developing trader. Now me personally, with more than two decades of trading experience, I don't fear any loss because I
215 00:42:01,380 --> 00:42:10,230 know I have the skill sets that will allow me to come back from whatever that loss or series of losses would be, and then moved to a new equity high or
216 00:42:11,970 --> 00:42:19,410 objective for the week or month or whatever it is, that would be trading in. If you're a new developing trader, you're not going to have that confidence level.
217 00:42:19,440 --> 00:42:26,550 In fact, what'll happen is it'll be deflating for you, you'll take a loss and you'll walk away from the market and walk away from my materials and walk away
218 00:42:26,550 --> 00:42:35,880 from Forex thinking. It's no one's making money, and therefore, you know, you've wasted your time. I don't want you to feel that way. And I have felt that way in
219 00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:45,090 the past before with commodities, okay. And I know what that feels like. It's very painful, it's hurtful. And if you have, let someone else know that you're
220 00:42:45,090 --> 00:42:55,200 doing it, and you're not making money, okay, or finding success in it, they will add to that pain, okay? And give you every reason why you're wasting your time
221 00:42:55,200 --> 00:43:06,300 and you shouldn't be doing it. I can tell you with experience, do not listen to these individuals, okay? And stick to what you started this for. You wanted to
222 00:43:06,300 --> 00:43:17,940 do this for a reason. Whatever that reason was, that got you into this industry. Don't give up. Don't stick to it. Don't let a series of losses, don't let a
223 00:43:17,940 --> 00:43:28,770 period of drawdown, don't let a period of uncertainty in your in your price action study. Don't let me holding you up with Washington new installment in a
224 00:43:28,770 --> 00:43:40,380 video series, you drive me nuts, okay, this is all part of the development, you have to get beyond all those outward things that are always going to be there.
225 00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:50,100 If it's not me holding you up with a video series installment. If it's not the period of market action that you're in, if it's not the flu bug that I had last
226 00:43:50,100 --> 00:43:55,530 week, if it's not the, you know, the you the
227 00:43:56,640 --> 00:44:03,510 the real life events that come into your in your life, okay? It's going to be something else, there's always going to be something that's going to be a
228 00:44:03,510 --> 00:44:13,680 perfect opportunity to blame, why this isn't the right thing for you to be doing. And that's what weak minded traders do. And he leave thinking that this
229 00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:23,340 is not working for anyone else. So so therefore everyone else that saying they're making money is full of bull spit. And I can tell you, that's a normal
230 00:44:23,400 --> 00:44:32,580 thing. It's a normal thinking process, normal thought process that traders go through. I'm telling you, if you ask anyone that's been doing this for any
231 00:44:32,580 --> 00:44:46,290 length of time, they have all at least one time felt that way. Okay. So don't let the idea of uncertainty or difficulty or growing pains, because that's what
232 00:44:46,290 --> 00:44:55,800 it is guys. It's growing pains. You're gonna go through period, you're gonna go through periods that make you feel as if that you're wasting your time. This is
233 00:44:55,800 --> 00:45:03,540 something that you shouldn't be doing that you're wasting money. You know, you're Your wife was right, your husband was right, your boyfriend, girlfriend,
234 00:45:03,540 --> 00:45:11,340 whatever it is, your boss laughed and said you'll never leave it. Leave, leave the place that you work at, you'll still be there five years from now doing this
235 00:45:11,340 --> 00:45:20,730 stuff, not trading, but doing whatever you're doing your job. That's, you know, don't don't buy into that. Okay, understand this, you're learning one of the
236 00:45:20,730 --> 00:45:34,200 highest forms of speculation there is? Did you really expect it to be easy? Think about that. We're in here trading in the same realm, as the banks do.
237 00:45:35,430 --> 00:45:41,760 They're not in the business of saying, Okay, well, look, you know, Michael seems like a pretty nice guy, he makes these free videos. So what we're going to do
238 00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:49,830 is, we're just going to let him win on all these trades, because, you know, he's just a good guy. It's not how it works, man. Believe me, I have to fight claw
239 00:45:49,980 --> 00:46:00,840 and just war with the price action, just like anyone else does. Okay, it's the same thought process goes through my mind. But I have the time behind me to know
240 00:46:01,050 --> 00:46:08,430 that if I get, you know, basically kicked in the balls, I know, I'm gonna be able to shake it off and come back and find something else to recoup that money.
241 00:46:08,940 --> 00:46:17,400 A new trader doesn't have that they don't have that don't think they know is, wow, this low, I just took a loss that hurt, that hurt my ego that hurt my pride
242 00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:25,650 to hurt my bank account. And then I started thinking, Well, what if this happens three more times? Well, what happens if it happens? 10 more times? What if I'm
243 00:46:25,650 --> 00:46:33,090 not really right to do this? This is something I shouldn't be doing. Boom, what are you doing? You got now you have toxic thinking, okay, and that's going to
244 00:46:33,090 --> 00:46:39,750 plague your performance. And it's going to make you get a trade. So you need to get a little bit of a profit, because you gonna think I don't want this to go
245 00:46:39,750 --> 00:46:50,010 back to where it was when I took a loss. Okay, so I answering a series of questions, I had my saying all this stuff. I know, it seems like I'm going on a
246 00:46:50,010 --> 00:46:57,690 rabbit trail. But I'm actually looking at my notes here. And I'm actually answering questions. So I'm encouraging those individuals that had sent me
247 00:46:57,690 --> 00:47:06,150 emails. And I'm also answering a few questions as it relates to what goes through my mind. And yes, a lot of these things still go through my mind as a
248 00:47:06,150 --> 00:47:15,420 trader, many times I'm able to just say, Okay, well, I know what I'm thinking and feeling. But my experience says that I should, I should still do this. So
249 00:47:15,420 --> 00:47:24,000 I'm going to do this, and we'll count the chips after the, you know, after the trade takes place, if it's a loss than I know what a loss will be, it will be
250 00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:33,840 controlled, it won't take me out of the game. Okay. And it'll be something I can come back from very easily. And if I'm right, then I'll be it's one more notch
251 00:47:33,840 --> 00:47:42,990 in my experience, you know, pull where I can pull back from, at a later time when I have a period of drawdown, and I can be encouraged by that. That's,
252 00:47:43,020 --> 00:47:50,760 that's what you should be doing. When you keep a journal. That's the purpose of keeping a journal to have these milestones to look back on and say, okay, yeah,
253 00:47:51,060 --> 00:47:57,480 I went through a period of uncertainty, I felt like crap, I didn't feel like I knew what I was doing. I was losing my I took a lot of trades, they were all
254 00:47:57,480 --> 00:48:06,510 losers. And, you know, I, I reduce my risk to a very, very small amount, and, you know, weathered that storm, and then I came back through and now trading
255 00:48:06,510 --> 00:48:15,780 effectively again, and I don't need to worry about that, because I've gone through it. By having that experience. I can't teach it to you. You can't learn
256 00:48:15,780 --> 00:48:25,260 it from a webinar, you can't buy it in a book, you can't go to the bookstore and get it and you just can't get it. You have to go through it. You have to endure
257 00:48:25,290 --> 00:48:33,600 and go through it. But if you're going to take your account and over leverage it and put more risk on then you should simply because you feel like you're gonna
258 00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:43,890 be right. And when you're not, you're gonna go into this tailspin and having thought processes that leads to losers mentality. Okay. All right, so I'm gonna
259 00:48:43,890 --> 00:48:48,030 close this. With the question,
260 00:48:48,030 --> 00:49:01,080 I got an email about black swan events. Okay, and what's my secret recipe on avoiding getting smashed in the face by a event like we saw on the Swissy? Well,
261 00:49:01,110 --> 00:49:14,040 the first thing I can tell you is I will never endure a Swiss franc Black Swan event, simply because I don't trade the Swiss franc. I will never endorse a
262 00:49:14,040 --> 00:49:25,140 Japanese yen. Black Swan event not that I'm suspecting that there is one. But they are you know, historically shown to manipulate their currency a lot the
263 00:49:25,140 --> 00:49:38,310 Japanese yen and Swiss franc obviously. I would very much like to be able to say here's how you do this. But unfortunately, if I did that, I would be the most
264 00:49:38,580 --> 00:49:51,540 super genius as it relates to financial trading and speculation I would be swept away by some big, you know, entity and I'd be working with them consulting them.
265 00:49:51,840 --> 00:50:02,460 Okay, but I don't know how to avoid black swan events. No one really knows how to avoid black swan events. But I can tell you that the Swiss franc was kind of
266 00:50:02,460 --> 00:50:16,860 like a loaded deal when they had that pegged, you know, against the euro, that's like, asking for trouble. You know, you're How can it be free trade, you're
267 00:50:16,860 --> 00:50:27,900 basically you're tying the hands of speculators. Okay. And for those that had the faith that the peg would stay in place, you know, they were putting large
268 00:50:27,900 --> 00:50:39,420 bets against, you know, the market, assuming that that peg would stay in place. Man, this is exactly what I've been teaching for the last 20 years. If there is
269 00:50:39,420 --> 00:50:51,780 money to be made, they will break the rules to get that money. Okay. And that's why it's important that you trade with a stop loss. That's why it's important
270 00:50:52,080 --> 00:51:04,920 that you understand that you're not in a 401 key type business. You're in here at war. The folks that are making these markets move around, okay? They are the
271 00:51:04,920 --> 00:51:24,300 most greedy, self motivated, self. You know, they're just, they're cruel, they are cruel, because this is exactly how they live. This is their business, they
272 00:51:24,300 --> 00:51:34,380 take money. Do you understand that? It's very important that you understand that, because it's so easy for everyone out there to go to webinars and, and
273 00:51:34,380 --> 00:51:42,810 follow mentors and, and listen to, and I can be guilty of this too. Listen to some of the, if you just go into certain videos, or certain, you know, rants
274 00:51:42,870 --> 00:51:51,780 I've made over the years. Sometimes it makes it seem like it's just gumdrops and milkshakes used to get in here. It's so sweet. And you get in the worried about
275 00:51:51,780 --> 00:52:02,040 this, which stoploss and you're gonna make all kinds of money retiring in three years. It's difficult as a new trader, but it never gets easier. Dealing with
276 00:52:02,040 --> 00:52:13,590 the risk. You always always have that common denominator, that that risk is always there. It's always there. And it's not limited to just to the Swiss Franc
277 00:52:13,590 --> 00:52:22,620 and the Japanese yen, Euro could you you could do something goofy to and hurt me. And I'd probably never want to trade the euro. Okay, I you know, that's my
278 00:52:22,650 --> 00:52:30,540 that's my thought process on it. If it stings me bad enough. I'm not going to go back here and do it. You know, Larry Williams, my mentor made a comment one time
279 00:52:30,540 --> 00:52:32,580 he said, Look, you know, if you go out
280 00:52:33,720 --> 00:52:42,960 if you live on the street you live on and you walk down your street to the right outside your fence and you walk down new three houses. And a blue house with a
281 00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:52,800 white picket fence has a pit bull in there. And this dog rips your sleeve off your shirt. Okay, just tears it off. Are you going to walk down that house? buy
282 00:52:52,800 --> 00:53:01,470 that house 3040 50 times more and not expect this not to happen? I mean, sure you're gonna know man, this is something that's going to hurt me if I get close
283 00:53:01,470 --> 00:53:10,200 to this thing. Okay, well, when when you're trading the markets like this, okay? This is exactly what was going on in the Swiss franc. All these traders that
284 00:53:10,200 --> 00:53:21,720 were speculating in this currency pair, okay. Had their hopes and believing that well, the market can only go one way because they have it pegged. They waited
285 00:53:21,750 --> 00:53:32,160 for all these orders to build up now. I know a lot of you guys are gonna say I'm full of spit, okay, but go look at the Swiss franc on a commodity front. Look at
286 00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:42,870 the commodities Commitment of Traders report. Okay, and you see the massive buildup, okay, of Long's in Swiss franc in December. And you hear then go back
287 00:53:42,870 --> 00:53:52,290 and look at all the reports and the people talking about oh, it was no one knew. No one knew this was going to happen. You're right. The general populace didn't
288 00:53:52,290 --> 00:54:00,780 know ICT didn't know I'm not gonna say it because I don't even trade the Swiss franc. But we know looking at price action. And looking at that CBOT chart, they
289 00:54:00,780 --> 00:54:10,530 were adding massive Long's in the Swiss franc before this, before this move here, okay? Because this is what this is showing is the Swiss franc is actually
290 00:54:10,530 --> 00:54:21,300 rallying. Okay, because we're looking at USD versus Swissy. So when this is dropping, the Swiss franc is rallying this huge, massive, you know, event here,
291 00:54:21,480 --> 00:54:35,550 okay? Was to blow out all those individuals to head huge positions short, Swiss franc. Now, this event, this event really confirms what I have been saying, and
292 00:54:35,550 --> 00:54:41,820 I get a lot of flack for this. Oh, well, they're not going to minute if you'd like to markets, the currency markets are too big to manipulate. And I've been
293 00:54:41,820 --> 00:54:54,270 saying for over 10 years. I'm telling you, that this is exactly how this business works. And this event shows it. Now, to go back to the black swan
294 00:54:54,270 --> 00:55:08,100 events. There's absolutely no way for you to know for any certainty When they're gonna come. And that's the reason why we all assume the risk, we sign risk
295 00:55:08,100 --> 00:55:19,500 disclosure statements, before we even put our money in accounts, we have to identify and absorb the inherent risks in all speculation. Just like the stock
296 00:55:19,500 --> 00:55:30,240 market, there's nothing saying that the stock is trading at about $100 Share it now. They could get marked down tomorrow at the open to $2 a share. Think about
297 00:55:30,240 --> 00:55:46,770 that. In the previous stock market crashes, okay, Bank of America got, it got marked down over 100 bucks in one clip, Bank of America. One clip, just like
298 00:55:46,770 --> 00:55:59,430 that, it was marked down $100 a share. Yeah, imagine that. It's not just happening in forex, wherever the money is, guys, and gals, wherever that money
299 00:55:59,430 --> 00:56:14,040 is, there's someone going to go in and take it by hook or by crook. Bottom line, if it's there to be taken, it's being taken. That's how I teach it to you. I
300 00:56:14,040 --> 00:56:27,120 teach it like you are the market maker. That's how I teach. That's how I view the market. That's why I despite having a 15 Pip loss last week, and a break
301 00:56:27,120 --> 00:56:40,530 even trade, that's why you know, the level of precision that my tools present, it's because I understand the psychological side of what's going on with
302 00:56:40,530 --> 00:56:50,070 everyone else around the world. And that sounds very egotistical now. But I'm telling you, after doing this for two decades, you learn and when you work elbow
303 00:56:50,070 --> 00:57:02,130 to elbow with folks that have done this stuff day in and day out, taking funds out. They're not taking you out, they don't care about you. Okay, you're not
304 00:57:02,160 --> 00:57:12,210 your your micro account and mini account, they don't care about that. They're not taking your money, but the same pool of information that you use to trade
305 00:57:12,210 --> 00:57:26,280 on. That's exactly what everyone else around the world is doing. Put your stop loss here. Trail it here. It's rigged for you to do that. There's black swan
306 00:57:26,280 --> 00:57:33,060 events in the market action all day long. If you really think about it. Think about it. That's the concept of the Judas.
307 00:57:35,040 --> 00:57:49,530 That's a swan event on a micro level micro scale. Okay. False breakouts, Turtle soups. That's a it's a black swan event on a micro scale. So, yes, this right
308 00:57:49,530 --> 00:57:57,480 here is something that we're going to talk about for a long, long, long, long time. And I told I sent that in a tweet that day, I said, You just watched
309 00:57:57,480 --> 00:58:07,290 history, we just saw the beginning of many changes taking place in our industry, you watch and see CFTC isn't not done, they're not done, they're probably going
310 00:58:07,290 --> 00:58:17,850 to clamp down on the leverage. They're gonna, they're gonna make it harder to trade, because there's people out there still killing it. And it's not meant to
311 00:58:17,850 --> 00:58:31,170 do that. They are the only ones that specially profiting from it. Okay. And I believe that this whole event right here was to take those individuals out of
312 00:58:31,170 --> 00:58:40,770 game. On a longer term, this is just a one day event. But really, that one day event is going to have a lasting impression on the speculation in our industry.
313 00:58:41,670 --> 00:58:54,450 And the banks know it. I tweeted a tweet that Chris Laurie, put on his Twitter account, talking about the liquidity drying up on institutional level. And
314 00:58:54,870 --> 00:59:08,640 that's another reason why I'm moving to retire. Because I know what it's going to be like, you know, to manage the money that I'm managing, I manage money for
315 00:59:08,640 --> 00:59:17,490 a large conglomerate, and Baltimore, and if you if I said their name, he knew exactly who they were, believe me, they're, they're that well known. So I'm
316 00:59:17,490 --> 00:59:28,950 closing up shop. I've been having several meetings with them over the last few months. And when January 15 happened, that made it very easy for them to come to
317 00:59:28,950 --> 00:59:40,500 an agreement with why I wanted to leave the speculation and management of that fund. And they're in the same they're on the same page. Not that I had an
318 00:59:40,590 --> 00:59:51,270 anticipation of that happening. I just am at that stage in my life where I just want to focus on me and my family and I'm gonna be more involved with them. So
319 00:59:52,830 --> 01:00:03,450 April 1, I am officially retired. I will not be doing anything as it relates to teach If you're managing anyone's money, and you know, I'll probably do very
320 01:00:03,450 --> 01:00:17,010 little trading alone, because I will have arrived at the goal I have set for myself. And I'm at that point of contentedness, okay. And I'm hoping that all of
321 01:00:17,010 --> 01:00:29,160 my work, you'll ultimately get to that same point, whatever that equates to for you, everyone has their own idea of security, and financial freedom, I have a
322 01:00:29,160 --> 01:00:43,380 reach I have reached mine. So I'm not, I'm not going to go beyond that. It took a long time to get here, a lot of pain and struggle, and anguish. But I got
323 01:00:43,380 --> 01:00:55,890 here, and I'm very proud to, to reach this this mile marker. And I don't want to go back and lose it. So I told myself, when I was a younger man, that if I got
324 01:00:55,890 --> 01:01:05,790 to the level I'm at now, I would be done. And I wouldn't, wouldn't take any wild chances. And I wouldn't speculate and go and do anything frivolous to lose it to
325 01:01:05,790 --> 01:01:17,790 that way, I wouldn't have to worry about building it back up again. So we've been rambling on for about an hour now. So I'm gonna cut this here. But I'm
326 01:01:17,790 --> 01:01:28,020 going to tell you this. As it relates to black swan events, there's always going to be something that you never expected. And that's why we have to keep our risk
327 01:01:28,020 --> 01:01:40,260 small and be able to weather that. Now, yes, stop loss orders did not happen to help anyone in that instance there. But I think a lot of brokers have stepped up
328 01:01:40,260 --> 01:01:52,050 and said, you know, what? You will, we're going to take the loss up to the point of your account balance, okay, unfortunately, but any negative holdings, we will
329 01:01:52,560 --> 01:02:00,420 forgive that some brokers are actually doing, and I think that's a very respectable thing to do. But I can assure you this individuals that lost their
330 01:02:00,420 --> 01:02:12,960 account, are never going to speculate, again, in forex. And that sad, because this one event, while he wants to horrendous, I don't believe is enough to keep
331 01:02:12,960 --> 01:02:21,000 folks from at least pursuing this venture in forex, I think it should be very, very, very eye opening.
332 01:02:21,030 --> 01:02:28,320 It should be a sobering event. But you know, hey, look, you know, just because you're trading a small account, very small amount, does not mean that your small
333 01:02:28,320 --> 01:02:37,470 amount can't turn into three times your account balance in the opposite end, and very short in a very short time. I mean, we're talking in minutes, folks,
334 01:02:37,620 --> 01:02:51,720 minutes, this thing moved 1000s of pips. That's, that's unheard of. Yeah, that's craziness. So I don't think that's the last time we'll see that either. I mean,
335 01:02:51,720 --> 01:03:04,680 I'm, I'm, I'm a person of faith. And I believe that we're fastly approaching a very, very difficult time for our world, not just America. I mean, I think we're
336 01:03:04,680 --> 01:03:17,370 going to be going into some crazy, crazy events, that we're going to be seeing the markets gyrate and doing some crazy stuff. But ultimately, you know, where
337 01:03:17,370 --> 01:03:27,300 there are risks, there's gonna be opportunities. And the last question, I'm gonna close it here is if the forex market for whatever reason goes to the point
338 01:03:27,300 --> 01:03:38,790 where it's no longer a good investment, where would I put my money? I would trade commodities. The here's the thing. currencies can be devalued immediately.
339 01:03:39,120 --> 01:03:57,840 Okay. And stock markets can collapse. They can do that. But real commodities, wheat, gold, soybeans, cattle, hogs, these things are what people live on. We
340 01:03:57,840 --> 01:04:12,450 don't live on currency. Okay, we enjoy and buy goods, and we facilitate life needs with money, currencies, okay. But if you if I gave you a stack of, you
341 01:04:12,450 --> 01:04:22,980 know, $10,001 bills, money, you guys gonna guess is great, but you can't eat that. $10,000 Okay, you can't you can't eat it, but you can go out and buy an
342 01:04:22,980 --> 01:04:35,700 exchange and get food for that. Sure, you can. But you can't if it's devalued and marked down. It's not there anymore. Deutsche Marks I used to trade Deutsche
343 01:04:35,700 --> 01:04:50,190 Mark, do you know, what do you do? What do you do if the currency that you're in is no longer there? It can happen. Any of our currencies can happen, okay, but a
344 01:04:50,190 --> 01:05:03,900 commodity will always have value. To me. I still have a heartstring towards the Commodity Futures Mark That's because they are real, they are absolutely
345 01:05:04,080 --> 01:05:14,790 tangible things that will never go to zero. And if the markets go nuts and start collapsing, that's where the big, big bull market is going to come. You want to
346 01:05:14,790 --> 01:05:27,300 be going long in those commodities, because everyone will be buying up those things, because they understand that fear will cause all kinds of craziness. And
347 01:05:27,300 --> 01:05:40,980 that will increase it will increase the demand for things like that. And without stealing a lot of thunder from the commodity installment in our teaching series,
348 01:05:40,980 --> 01:05:51,000 the I talk a lot about that as well. But you don't need you don't need Forex. If you want to trade, you don't need Forex. There's other vehicles that you can
349 01:05:51,000 --> 01:05:59,640 trade on. And you don't need a whole lot of money to do either. So I'm going to close it here guys. Hopefully this has been insightful to you. I do believe that
350 01:05:59,640 --> 01:06:11,700 we are ultimately moving lower in to cable and fiber and the dollar obviously, what we were talking about earlier, Tuesday or Wednesday of this week, hopefully
351 01:06:11,820 --> 01:06:20,340 we'll get something I can tweet and give some kind of insight for a weekly move. But until then, guys wish good luck and good trading