LostAndFound-022413.srt
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-11-10 06:40
Outline
00:24 - The inner circle trader -.
01:28 - Key ranges and price levels to watch.
03:20 - What I’m eyeballing on the dollar.
05:42 - Head and shoulders price pattern on dollar.
07:38 - Daily chart of the euro/dollar.
09:49 - What was transpiring in this market.
11:56 - What on the short term could transpire this week if we bounce up first.
14:04 - On the upside, we have this high, this low and this range.
16:17 - What was going on with the dollar vs. fiber on the 20th of February.
19:14 - Selling off in continuation of the London Open.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:24,450 --> 00:01:29,280 | ICT: Changes count your habits weigh your storm was born to arise change as. Alright, folks, welcome to the inner circle trader.com. This is our very first |
| 2 | 00:01:29,550 --> 00:01:39,690 | market review for the website just began. And we're looking at the dollar index. Okay, so the daily chart, and before we start breaking it down, let's look at |
| 3 | 00:01:39,690 --> 00:01:53,310 | some significant ranges and price levels that we need to be paying attention to. Okay, we have our summer high and are early fall low on the dollar index. And I |
| 4 | 00:01:53,310 --> 00:02:10,110 | want to draw your attention to this area right up here because you can see we have the 79 and 62% Retracement Levels coming in around the 82 figure. And |
| 5 | 00:02:10,110 --> 00:02:24,060 | almost the 83 figure and sweet spot coming in around the 8250 level says at 247 here, but we're just gonna round it up to the 8250 mid figure level. Now, the |
| 6 | 00:02:24,060 --> 00:02:33,990 | key levels that you want to be paying attention to and that we pay attention to as well for my own trading is this high here, we have to remain above this high |
| 7 | 00:02:34,050 --> 00:02:53,280 | on the short term. And this high here, so we're going to take the FIB off now because it's getting a little too busy already. So we have this high here which |
| 8 | 00:02:53,280 --> 00:03:12,210 | is essentially where we closed that on Friday. Okay, and then we have the shorter term, daily lows in here that are, again, very short term support |
| 9 | 00:03:12,210 --> 00:03:24,000 | levels, should we retrace inside of the range that we've recently produced from this low to this high. Obviously, I'd rather see it trade up, firmer, and then |
| 10 | 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:32,700 | come back down and find support at this level. But I'm certainly willing to permit it to come back down to this level here. Okay, and maybe even this range |
| 11 | 00:03:32,700 --> 00:03:48,240 | from this low to this high. Let's take a look at that real quick. Give me some ideas what I'm eyeballing. Okay, so down here, the at 55, as in low end, for |
| 12 | 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:57,600 | this range from this low to if this high remains intact, and we start to trade off early from Sunday's opening, going into Tuesday or Wednesday of this week, |
| 13 | 00:03:57,870 --> 00:04:11,130 | I'd like to see again, price, come up above a little bit here and find some support. And to maybe make to Tuesday and or Wednesday low and then try to drive |
| 14 | 00:04:11,130 --> 00:04:22,920 | towards that at 250 83 figure on the dollar. And if that happens, obviously, we will be looking for continuations lower on the fiber. I'm going to avoid the |
| 15 | 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:34,830 | cable. Okay, and we're just gonna be focusing on the fiber and the dollar until April. Okay. I was just want to be utilizing my time more efficiently. And by |
| 16 | 00:04:34,890 --> 00:04:44,250 | just focusing on one payer and permitting me to just do analysis on that and the dollar index will allow me to do these videos a lot more efficiently and manage |
| 17 | 00:04:44,250 --> 00:04:56,010 | my time a little bit more appropriately because I'm still doing a lot of work towards the launch on April 10 for the website. So again, here we're looking at |
| 18 | 00:04:56,550 --> 00:05:07,560 | upside still in here. We still have to come Consider this possibly being a false break. Okay, being a turtle soup, okay, or if you're a trader that follows some |
| 19 | 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:12,840 | concepts that Chris Laurie teaches, this would be considered impossible Riptide reversal. |
| 20 | 00:05:14,340 --> 00:05:24,900 | But I just want to stick to the turtle soup idea here because it could just be a little bit of a decline, come back down to this high here, find some support, |
| 21 | 00:05:25,140 --> 00:05:35,190 | and then continue on higher. But it doesn't necessarily have to do that. Okay, so in layman's terms, basically, I'm looking for the Tuesday and or Wednesday, |
| 22 | 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:49,350 | formation of a weekly low for the dollar. Setting up continuation is lower on the fiber. Okay? This pattern here, okay, looks like a head and shoulders. And I |
| 23 | 00:05:49,350 --> 00:05:59,130 | talked about this in, in previous videos, which I shouldn't be referencing now. But I'm just going to do it here because I know a lot of you guys have watched |
| 24 | 00:05:59,130 --> 00:06:09,150 | it. But I took my youtube channel down. And I was talking about a pattern called Hounds of Baskerville. And it's kind of weird name for a price pattern. But it's |
| 25 | 00:06:09,570 --> 00:06:18,960 | I found that it Alexander elders trading for a living book, where it talks about how the in the the head and shoulders formation of the possible tarp, which |
| 26 | 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:26,640 | would look like kind of like that, okay, which is what I was eyeballing initially, but then as price either run up in here, I was like, Oh, this is |
| 27 | 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:37,770 | probably the false Head and Shoulders top, and it's gonna move to go higher. And you can see we've been doing that since Okay, so let's go and look at some more |
| 28 | 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:51,840 | levels on dollar. Okay, and this is the levels that I'm again, watching price wise, have these noted on your, your cheat sheets for your intraday trading and |
| 29 | 00:06:51,840 --> 00:07:01,320 | your weekly analysis everyday go go through your date, daily range, the highs and lows and looking for opportunities to possibly run one of these levels. Now, |
| 30 | 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:07,950 | obviously, at first glance, it looks like a whole lot, that's really not, you're just gonna be waiting to see what happens when price gets to these particular |
| 31 | 00:07:07,950 --> 00:07:19,110 | levels. And around time, okay, so if we trade at one of these levels, and it's at a market opening or close, like London, open line, close New York open, near |
| 32 | 00:07:19,110 --> 00:07:27,780 | close Asian session opening things of that nature, then you get a confluence of timing, price theory. And obviously, a lot of you guys are familiar with that, |
| 33 | 00:07:27,780 --> 00:07:36,090 | if you're not, you're gonna see a whole lot of that stuff resurfacing in the form of videos. In that website, we'll have all that information, a whole lot |
| 34 | 00:07:36,090 --> 00:07:46,500 | more stuff that I've never released. So again, we're looking for continuation on the upside for the dollar. So obviously, that translates to weaker prices on the |
| 35 | 00:07:46,500 --> 00:07:54,990 | fiber. Okay, so here's the daily chart on the Euro USD. And you can see this high back here is what we were talking about a couple of weeks ago, as a |
| 36 | 00:07:54,990 --> 00:08:08,910 | possible objective as price was pushing higher. We ran above that, and we talked about this likely being a turtle soup reversal here, okay. And this heat right |
| 37 | 00:08:08,910 --> 00:08:18,600 | here, this candle right here, I'm going to zoom in. Okay, and what we're going to do is we're going to look at what price was doing at that particular time. |
| 38 | 00:08:19,050 --> 00:08:32,490 | Okay, and okay, and if you look at my Twitter account, and if you don't know what that is, obviously, you see that here posted on the screen. Okay, and my |
| 39 | 00:08:32,490 --> 00:08:41,790 | tweets are protected. That means that unless you're following me, you really can't see what I'm tweeting about. So but if you look at the 13th of February, |
| 40 | 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:59,100 | actually called this high here and today I said that we would see the fiber, your USD slip in here and take a look at a video flash back here. Now should |
| 41 | 00:08:59,130 --> 00:09:10,500 | price falter here and fail to move higher and then trade lower Okay, obviously when this is taken out this low here, we will be looking for the next level |
| 42 | 00:09:10,500 --> 00:09:25,620 | support would be down here. But the range we will be working within is this lag here. So we could go below these lows and try to aim at that 131 35 131 40 area |
| 43 | 00:09:26,010 --> 00:09:37,110 | as a low and obviously this has to lining up with that level too. So there's a lot of confidence in me. lineup for a possible downside objective should price |
| 44 | 00:09:37,650 --> 00:09:49,980 | move lower and the dollar move higher. Okay, so you can see how we had price create a swing high here again, this is a daily chart of the fiber. So we have a |
| 45 | 00:09:50,010 --> 00:09:58,860 | swing high. We had price come down and then we started seeing this retracement in here. Okay, we saw price trade up and to this little point here. If we drop a |
| 46 | 00:09:58,860 --> 00:10:06,390 | fib On this high down to the lowest low prior to this little retracement here. |
| 47 | 00:10:07,859 --> 00:10:19,739 | Notice we do not get what we would expect to see in terms of a 60 to 70.5 or 670 9% retracement level or standard optimal trade entry. It's not there, okay? |
| 48 | 00:10:20,879 --> 00:10:31,589 | The reason why is because you need to be looking at the big figure. Okay, and we're going to draw that here. And I'm going to do is take the FIB, put it right |
| 49 | 00:10:31,589 --> 00:10:42,719 | on top of that. Okay, so I've basically taken the FIB pulled it right from the big figure, and pull it down to the swing low as it retraced because now, this |
| 50 | 00:10:42,719 --> 00:10:55,769 | scenario, we already talked about likelihood of seeing it low going lower, and we called 131 35 131 40. area, and on this particular day, the low came in at |
| 51 | 00:10:55,769 --> 00:11:07,979 | 131 44 for this feed, okay, the reason why I was looking for it retraced back to that point. You can see we got up in that 60% tracing level here. And we'll go |
| 52 | 00:11:07,979 --> 00:11:17,549 | back over in greater detail what was transpiring here, but if you look at the range that we were trading within, we had this low up to this high. Okay, so |
| 53 | 00:11:17,549 --> 00:11:27,449 | between this high, I'm sorry, this low rather to this high price came right down to that 79% retracement level. Okay. And if you look at this old swing high in |
| 54 | 00:11:27,449 --> 00:11:37,049 | here, that's a nice little area where we'd expect market structure to provide some code of downside objective and that's why more or less house citing 131 35 |
| 55 | 00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:47,909 | in that area and then sticking to a wall around small number of 131 40. Obviously, we still could move lower if we don't see a nice sizable bounce in |
| 56 | 00:11:47,909 --> 00:11:59,879 | here. I want to see price obviously remain below this high. And we could retrace between this high and this low. And let's pull a fib on that. And we'll get an |
| 57 | 00:11:59,879 --> 00:12:10,889 | idea on what on the short term could transpire this week early early on if we do bounce up first before we go lower. So we have 62% retracement level comes in |
| 58 | 00:12:10,889 --> 00:12:28,199 | here. And for sake of knowing it's the 133 20 level, okay. So we could see price bounce up to that particular point which is owed support here broken see that |
| 59 | 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:42,659 | right here. So we would have a very nice market structure implying a confluence of 60% retracement, overall bearish market structure, ote going lower and then |
| 60 | 00:12:42,659 --> 00:12:52,019 | maybe make a drive below these lows and maybe reach for these and ultimately, if we get really wildly bearish, we could be looking at November lows from 2012. |
| 61 | 00:12:53,099 --> 00:13:05,249 | And I do suspect that unless we get some kind of wild read reversal on the dollar, we will be probably revisiting November's low. Okay. And that again is |
| 62 | 00:13:05,249 --> 00:13:23,489 | assuming we remain below this high here. Okay. Let's break down the market on an intraday level. But before we do, let's take a look at what the CO T daily looks |
| 63 | 00:13:23,489 --> 00:13:24,479 | like for the fiber |
| 64 | 00:13:35,669 --> 00:13:45,839 | okay, you can still see that we are net short still on the commercials. They are just now starting to increase on their Long's. Incidentally, while we're not |
| 65 | 00:13:45,839 --> 00:13:55,469 | going to be covering the cable here, cable has built a pretty significant net long position by the commercials. So we could see a little bit of a bounce in |
| 66 | 00:13:55,469 --> 00:14:06,899 | that market, which is another reason why I suspect we could see initial bounce up on the fiber up to these levels in here. And let's draw those on our chart. |
| 67 | 00:14:08,939 --> 00:14:20,579 | Because I do suspect on the upside these are going to be significant levels to contend with at least for the intraday and obviously for intra week and |
| 68 | 00:14:20,759 --> 00:14:34,349 | obviously this high here being key in my opinion this week, because I don't think that if we go above that, we're going to continue to move lower. Okay. We |
| 69 | 00:14:34,349 --> 00:14:43,499 | do have a very nice measured move we have this high down to this low and again that same duplication of range in terms of pips, taking this range from this |
| 70 | 00:14:43,499 --> 00:14:57,149 | high to this low whatever that may be in that case it probably be easier and more clear for you guys to see that. utilized in the chart. Okay, you can see |
| 71 | 00:14:57,149 --> 00:15:08,339 | how price came down that rather summit trickle in terms of measured move, so we could reasonably expect, okay, and we do have an indecisive, indecisive candle |
| 72 | 00:15:08,339 --> 00:15:19,439 | here. So we could see a higher low possibly, and maybe a retest of this level here that 132 55. And if it goes a little bit further and we go back to that 133 |
| 73 | 00:15:19,439 --> 00:15:28,019 | figure, Super Bowl, just a little bit shot to retest these lows, and then maybe continue even lower again, eyeballing the downside objectives on the fiber |
| 74 | 00:15:29,879 --> 00:15:51,119 | coming in at around the 129 95 129 90 level. And obviously, we would be looking at this low as well, on the downside. And ultimately, the follow we have here on |
| 75 | 00:15:51,119 --> 00:16:01,559 | this chart coming in around 126 60. Okay, so let's break this down and go down to a 15 minute chart, look at what transpired this week. Okay, we have the |
| 76 | 00:16:01,859 --> 00:16:15,089 | entire week's worth of trading on a 15 minute chart on the Euro USD pair. Okay, you have Sunday trading here. And we had a rather consolidation type day in |
| 77 | 00:16:15,479 --> 00:16:27,809 | well, Monday. And Tuesday started off the same way. But then we started to take off and rally up. Now this level up in here. Okay, on the 20th. Let's take a |
| 78 | 00:16:27,809 --> 00:16:41,669 | look at the Dollar versus t fiber going into this, this rally up here. Now I think you'll find something rather significant unfolding. Okay, as you can see, |
| 79 | 00:16:41,669 --> 00:16:57,059 | here, the fiber was making that higher high. But the dollar index was not making that lower low. Okay, so we were seeing strength in the dollar versus this false |
| 80 | 00:16:57,209 --> 00:17:06,779 | strength going on in the fiber. In other words, we saw price going higher here looked by all indications that this is going to continue trading higher. We had |
| 81 | 00:17:06,779 --> 00:17:15,539 | very nice consolidations, new consolidations, and other consolidation and they put the brakes on and off sudden fell out a bit. Let's take a look at what was |
| 82 | 00:17:15,539 --> 00:17:20,609 | going on the dollar as well. On a 15 minute basis. |
| 83 | 00:17:27,030 --> 00:17:37,890 | Okay, so here is that low, and a higher low. Okay, so between the 15th of February, and the 19th and 20th of February, we had a higher low on the dollar. |
| 84 | 00:17:39,570 --> 00:17:40,710 | Looking at the fiber |
| 85 | 00:17:46,350 --> 00:17:54,720 | we had higher highs. Okay, you can see how we were going higher. So this right here is really just distribution there. The rallying it up, making the high of |
| 86 | 00:17:54,720 --> 00:18:06,660 | the week, on what day the week Feb. in February 20. It was on Wednesday, okay, and I teach that there's a 70% likelihood of the weekly range high or low |
| 87 | 00:18:06,690 --> 00:18:25,440 | forming on Tuesday and or Wednesdays London Open. And that still chance transpired here as well. Looking at the swing, okay, we had this low to high. |
| 88 | 00:18:25,860 --> 00:18:37,560 | Let's take a look at that. Okay, get to on an extension down here. So price did meet that objective. We also have |
| 89 | 00:18:43,650 --> 00:18:51,780 | in this range here, we have a 34. Big figure. Let's put that on a chart |
| 90 | 00:18:57,630 --> 00:19:09,180 | Okay, and then we're going to drop our fib on it. And drop that down to this little swing low here. And we move it over so you can see it. Let's go down to a |
| 91 | 00:19:09,180 --> 00:19:24,360 | five minute chart. And you can see how price rally right up into this particular level here. Got the sweet spot at 133 88 for a very nice New York open. sell off |
| 92 | 00:19:24,450 --> 00:19:33,000 | in continuation of that higher timeframe premise. We also have a London close continuation a lot of times you guys are expecting these London closed trades to |
| 93 | 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:41,820 | be in this day, it would be like this, it'd be a bounce, then optimal trade entry here to try to trade up back into the daily range not when it's going to |
| 94 | 00:19:41,820 --> 00:19:53,070 | be a trending day. You'll see many times the optimal trade entry form continuation and then we had fr FOMC announcements obviously later in the day, |
| 95 | 00:19:53,460 --> 00:20:04,170 | which is what drove price ridiculously lower. So now since obviously once they posted the Weekly high a Thursday would be a continuation, the same thing |
| 96 | 00:20:04,500 --> 00:20:22,410 | looking for lower prices. Okay, so looking at the high made in Asia Asian range here and the initial run lower here at six GMT, that's early Frankfurt price |
| 97 | 00:20:22,410 --> 00:20:32,400 | comes up into optimal trade entry during the eight GMT time period, okay which is London Open then you get your sell offs and price comes down and moves rather |
| 98 | 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:45,300 | precipitously lower then moves into consolidation going into new day and then on Friday we had another opportunity where price did stay within the weekly |
| 99 | 00:20:47,610 --> 00:20:59,160 | directional premise we have a nice high here in London and the previous day and you want to use the lowest low between the high and what forms during New York |
| 100 | 00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:12,000 | I'm sorry London Open and you get to sweet spot here which a confluence of a pivot so price rallies up goes right into optimal trade entry into the nine GMT |
| 101 | 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:22,320 | which is the London Open kill zone falls out of bed. Okay and then really drives lower here just to sneak below Thursday's low a little bit, doesn't want more |
| 102 | 00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:30,030 | time punches a little bit below and then consolidates going into the close trapping traders that were trying to chase this bear flag in here. Okay, so now |
| 103 | 00:21:30,030 --> 00:21:41,340 | they're they're stuck short here. Where do we go from here? That's the million dollar question. Okay, and I do suspect that we may see a little bit of a bounce |
| 104 | 00:21:41,340 --> 00:21:52,140 | in here. I don't expect it to be wildly bullish okay, but obviously Mark is gonna do what it's going to do. I'm looking for rallies to sell into so I'm |
| 105 | 00:21:52,140 --> 00:22:01,920 | looking again I'm looking for the fiber to give me the Tuesday and or Wednesday Hi the week and we're looking for shorts. Still eyeballing lower prices for the |
| 106 | 00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:12,480 | fiber and firmer prices for the dollar index. Okay, so hopefully this has been insightful to you guys and with that guys I wish you good luck and good trading |
| 107 | 00:22:34,290 --> 00:23:19,950 | live will pounder way whether lie shine Good luck so good upside on my fun to go on change as you say |
| 108 | 00:23:37,109 --> 00:23:37,949 | chose to go |