ICT YT - 2017-11-07 - ICT - UsdCad Market Review - Demo Example Long OTE.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-11 13:18
1 00:00:12,420 --> 00:00:27,510 ICT: Okay, folks, good afternoon. Okay, we're gonna take a look at the Canadian dollar. Alright, so we have on the daily chart on the left hand side, you'll see
2 00:00:27,510 --> 00:00:41,610 that price has pulled back into a rather deep retracement. And I'm using this body here. Now, obviously, I could have done this, okay and use the Sunday
3 00:00:41,610 --> 00:00:52,110 candle. You want to do that and certainly nothing wrong with that you'd still get down into optimal trade entry. I'm using this right here, the open on this
4 00:00:52,110 --> 00:01:05,130 candle here. So I want to stick to weekdays, not Sunday candles. So I'm really ignoring this candle here. And this candle actually comes in on the 22nd. Okay,
5 00:01:05,130 --> 00:01:22,980 so we're going to ignore that of October. And we're going to go with the 23rd. Okay, which is a Monday. Just guys see it. Back one month. Here's the Sunday and
6 00:01:22,980 --> 00:01:43,350 we're using the 23rd, which is a Monday. Again, that's this candle. Right here. Right there at 23rd. So that's the Monday, October 23 of 2017. You'll notice on
7 00:01:43,350 --> 00:01:55,170 this day, okay. disregard this candle for a moment. Okay, just imagine that it's not there. Okay, for platforms that don't have Sunday candles, what you would be
8 00:01:55,170 --> 00:02:05,130 left with is a large candle here on the previous Friday. And then Monday's candle here, and then Tuesday. Okay, so in the event that we don't have Sunday
9 00:02:05,130 --> 00:02:16,620 candles, because I've had this regard them among presentations using this platform, this up candle and then Monday's trading, then Tuesday's higher low.
10 00:02:17,250 --> 00:02:31,230 Okay, This to me is a continued swing low. Okay, so for your notes, it's called a continued swing low. That means if we have a big run up, we have a candle
11 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:41,610 immediately after the big up candle. Then we have another candle. That's a higher low. Okay, is it continued? swing low. Okay, so now what you're not
12 00:02:41,790 --> 00:02:54,180 requiring the retracement, if you see this happening here. Now, let me preface it by saying that it's only a continued swing low if the market is bullish. Now
13 00:02:54,180 --> 00:03:04,740 obviously, if you see this environment here, big up candle in this short little swing low type pattern explaining this could many times if it's not bullish,
14 00:03:04,770 --> 00:03:11,700 this could be the top of the marketplace and it starts to come down. So it's not just candlestick patterns. And it's not swing highs and swing lows that fixes
15 00:03:11,910 --> 00:03:22,140 the problem with profitability or consistency. It you still have to have a context understood about where price is most likely going to go. So I'm going to
16 00:03:22,260 --> 00:03:33,450 forego that discussion for the tutorials. But for right now, this formation right here, after a big large candle, one candle, and then a higher low candle.
17 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:45,660 This is a continued swing low. Okay. So when we have that, we can use that as an anchor point. Okay, and again, this regardless on this candle, and you run that
18 00:03:45,660 --> 00:03:58,410 up now for folks that just simply can't agree with what I'm presenting here today. And you're going to arm wrestle me? Or at least try to arm wrestle me
19 00:03:58,650 --> 00:04:07,290 saying oh, well, you know, this is all hindsight to say nothing long short of it is check it, test it. And you'll see it's many times it's in the charts a lot.
20 00:04:07,410 --> 00:04:16,740 Okay, so even if I were just to use this candle here, we're used to Sunday's candle because it is a swing low. In that case, it still gets you to optimal
21 00:04:16,740 --> 00:04:26,100 trade entry. So these candles in here yesterday, Monday's trading, and in today's trading, they are reacting off of that optimal trade entry. So no matter
22 00:04:26,100 --> 00:04:33,960 how you slice it, it is what it is. Okay, so I'm telling you how I did it and how I framed it. So this is what I did. So now we know on a daily chart, we are
23 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:45,390 in an area where we could potentially see a support level form based on the optimal trade entry 70.5 level. Okay, it comes in, in this daily chart, but this
24 00:04:45,390 --> 00:04:59,010 platform and this data is 127 11. Okay, so now we're gonna go over to the 15 minute timeframe and set up our scalps and drop a horizontal line here and I'll
25 00:04:59,010 --> 00:05:09,900 put that right on. The 11th level. Okay, and I'm going to add midnight New York time right there.
26 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:22,440 So you can see how price has rallied away, came back down dropped into and then price immediately after New York midnight time for running aggressively when
27 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:32,850 prices start off, right after midnight like this, okay, many of you understand my power three concept where r three stands for accumulation distribution and
28 00:05:32,850 --> 00:05:43,560 manipulation. Okay, that's what power three is. So what would be understood in terms of power three would be the open and accumulation. Okay, so it's one of
29 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:54,030 three. Okay, the manipulation, the drop down here. Okay, and the rally up, and the distribution here creating the highly day. I'll tell you why that was
30 00:05:54,180 --> 00:06:03,780 probably in a couple minutes. But power three is accumulation and distribution and manipulation. Those three components make up the overall price action from
31 00:06:03,780 --> 00:06:21,750 an institutional mindset and from a smart money perspective. So we have the previous day's high, which is seen here. Okay, so I'm going to take this, drop
32 00:06:21,750 --> 00:06:43,950 it right there. Okay, and I'm just gonna change it a little bit, just so we can distinguish it from the other. Okay, now we have previous day's high right here.
33 00:06:45,990 --> 00:06:57,270 Price gives a immediate run away. Now, the reason why daily intraday price action does this right after New York midnight, is because it's reacting off of
34 00:06:57,270 --> 00:07:07,470 a daily higher timeframe or weekly timeframe. Okay. That's when that's what causes season one way shots right after midnight in New York time. Many times,
35 00:07:07,470 --> 00:07:16,110 you'll see as my tutorials teach that it'll open it's bullish and drop down into around two o'clock, three o'clock in the morning, New York time, create a low of
36 00:07:16,110 --> 00:07:23,250 the day and then rally up and do the same thing here. And in this particular day, it doesn't do that. And the reason why it's because it's moving off of a
37 00:07:23,250 --> 00:07:36,600 higher timeframe daily level. Okay, so put that in your notes as well. So price starts to trade higher and does in fact run previous day's high right here. Now,
38 00:07:37,020 --> 00:07:46,710 when we look for intraday levels, we look for 10 to 20 PIP price swings as my tutorials teach, and I'm just going to quickly put that lipstick on the chart.
39 00:07:48,540 --> 00:08:01,410 Okay, and we're gonna put our line right here and we're gonna draw a rectangle up 20 pips is right there. Okay. There's 20 pips above the previous day's high.
40 00:08:02,190 --> 00:08:04,020 And that takes us to about
41 00:08:09,420 --> 00:08:27,930 right there. Okay, so 120 804. So 120 804 is above the big figure of 128 00. Okay. So, if we're expecting as I was expecting higher prices on dollar CAD, the
42 00:08:27,930 --> 00:08:36,210 reason why I was expecting hard dollar CAD prices is if I go back over to the daily chart on Dollar Index, dollar index hasn't really shown a willingness to
43 00:08:36,210 --> 00:08:44,970 break down yet. Okay, it's actually inside of a pattern, it looks to me, at least for the short term that would be neutral to bullish, I don't see it
44 00:08:44,970 --> 00:08:53,070 wanting to go lower, it's being held in a rather tight dealing range now, it doesn't mean that it can't break down from here it just meant as I went into
45 00:08:53,100 --> 00:09:00,630 trade today's trading I didn't feel that it was going to break down about because the dollar was being held in consolidation. And that would be at least
46 00:09:00,630 --> 00:09:11,130 for me bolster with weakness on Canadian dollar allow the dollar CAD paired the rally because the dollar is the first in the in the pairs name and in Canadian
47 00:09:11,130 --> 00:09:19,830 dollar. So when this currency is rallying, that means Canadian is weaker compared to the dollar. And since dollars being held in consolidation, and
48 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:32,700 weakness in Canadian dollar will propel this particular forex pair higher. Now I'm going to take you into the actual nuts and bolts of today's discussion.
49 00:09:34,560 --> 00:09:44,220 Okay, and here is the action based on what I saw, this is an average daily range. Okay, now notice average daily range is actually the same thing as
50 00:09:44,220 --> 00:09:54,300 previous day's high as well. Okay, within an earshot of it. We're gonna look at this price action right in here, but we had to zoom in a little bit before right
51 00:09:54,300 --> 00:10:05,460 now, I want you to remember the context I gave you for optimal trade entry. They form At institutional price levels, they are called by many circles as
52 00:10:05,490 --> 00:10:15,240 psychological levels. There's nothing psychological about these things. Okay? institutions use round numbers for their orders, because it makes it easy to put
53 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:23,370 in large blocks of orders. That's it. Okay. That's the real reason what causes the market to trade around zero levels. Okay. And that's what it is. It's
54 00:10:23,370 --> 00:10:31,440 20s 80s because they go beyond the big figures, 00 levels, above or below it, depending on if you're bearish or bullish. And I'll explain that in a minute.
55 00:10:32,550 --> 00:10:44,430 And the mid figure, okay, like 127 50, that's a mid figure level. Okay. Then we have 127 80, which is the next institutional price level price, then, I was
56 00:10:44,430 --> 00:10:55,350 looking at 127 97, because it's three pips just before the 128. Big figure. Okay, so that's the reason why I wanted that price level. And secondly, we know
57 00:10:55,350 --> 00:11:05,430 that 120 is the big figure. And then right above that, we'll have 10 pips, which is 128 10. And then 128 20. Okay, and whenever we have a big figure, my
58 00:11:05,430 --> 00:11:16,590 tutorials teach, and you'll see that it goes 10 to 20 pips above intraday highs, and a 20, Pip sweep takes us exactly up to 120 20. That's all I'm showing you
59 00:11:16,590 --> 00:11:22,920 here with this triangle here, just highlighting the fact that it's a sweep above the 120. Big figure. So please don't read too much into the geometry on this
60 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:34,980 chart. It's not there to draw any more attention that's necessary. But I want you to take a look at the kill zone, see t children, okay. And you can see I
61 00:11:34,980 --> 00:11:44,910 have the body on the swing low, open on this candle is the lowest of the body reference points open or close, get the low and higher, low, higher low to the
62 00:11:44,910 --> 00:12:00,120 left and right of it. Okay, and price trading up to this swing high. And this candles open is going to show up here on 2761. Okay, in price trades down from
63 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:09,270 that into optimal trade entry, and this level is the minifigure level. So we have an optimal trade entry occurring exactly where I taught you. They occur at
64 00:12:09,390 --> 00:12:22,680 a figure, okay, in a time when dollar CAD is bullish, at a time when there's a kill zones in New York kill zone. Okay. And I went in, after missing the actual
65 00:12:22,680 --> 00:12:29,730 entry in here because the actual entry came in, right before the New York kills him. So I wasn't able to get that price level. So what I'm trying to show you
66 00:12:29,730 --> 00:12:40,230 today is, and I've done this, in several instances throughout the last four weeks or so, I'm actually not trying to give you the precision entries where
67 00:12:40,230 --> 00:12:47,640 you've seen me do exercises and drills where I practice and get in there. And I get in exactly at the PIP, I'm actually calling the very highs and weekly lows.
68 00:12:47,970 --> 00:12:55,980 And you see me do it on a daily basis where I can pull them out and show you where they're at within one or two pips many times, but I'm usually pretty
69 00:12:55,980 --> 00:13:05,040 accurate in terms of where I think it's going to occur. You do not need that, to trade with consistency. That's what I'm trying to illustrate here. So there's
70 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:08,970 gonna be times where you missed an entry that would be ideal. I missed it because it didn't happen in the kill zone.
71 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:20,940 You can see this candle Here comes in at 1045. Now that's 6:45am my time in New York. So the next candle, which is what I entered in, okay, is one price is
72 00:13:20,940 --> 00:13:32,100 already moving away. But because we have not traded through the reference point that would start the sling. Now I'm using the high for this now, not the body.
73 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:41,340 This is when you want to bring in the wicks from the point in which you draw the fib up to you want to find the highest high. Okay, as long as we're at that
74 00:13:41,340 --> 00:13:50,490 level or below it, I would be okay with getting long one. That's what makes it or breaks it for me. Okay, I asked you guys on Twitter today, what would be the
75 00:13:50,490 --> 00:14:01,500 absolute latest time you can use for an entry? It's where your first scalping profit taking level is, it's got to be at or below that. Otherwise, it's not you
76 00:14:01,500 --> 00:14:11,070 can't take the trade. Okay, so there's your trade filter, very simple one. But I'm assuming here on a five minute basis, we'll drop out of 15 minutes. As you
77 00:14:11,070 --> 00:14:24,990 can see, now here, the chart looks slightly different. Okay. But you can see that the levels I was trying to take my profit out here was exactly at 127 97. I
78 00:14:24,990 --> 00:14:35,310 wanted to get out right before the 128 big figure actually gave me the exit as it ramped up into the 120 big finger. And that swept through another portion of
79 00:14:35,340 --> 00:14:46,590 the market was peeled off at 128 10. And then ultimately, look at the the legend maker on the Fibonacci. Now I'm going to remove these level labels here cuz I'm
80 00:14:46,590 --> 00:14:57,960 trying to be facetious. And if you watch the Twitter feed, everyone's asking me like this one here says the showstopper and the legend maker. I did that. Just
81 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:09,570 to illustrate how Retail minded traders get really excited about these labels and these indicator ideas, okay? Fibonacci is just a measuring tool I use. And I
82 00:15:09,570 --> 00:15:18,570 use it for like, targeting, I don't use it so much for entry, I use it to teach where an entry would be an ideal or optimal level. But you don't need to
83 00:15:18,570 --> 00:15:27,660 Fibonacci. Now I do rely on Fibonacci for profit taking, I like to see some things overlap to give me confidence that that's a pretty good level. Because
84 00:15:27,690 --> 00:15:36,030 always upfront and honest with you, in regards to what my weaknesses as a trader, it's the exits, I'm never really satisfied with my exit. So this has
85 00:15:36,030 --> 00:15:45,840 been a way for me to really nail down a specific criteria where it doesn't change all the time. It's just wherever a fib level is, if it lines up with
86 00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:52,710 something else I look at from an institutional basis, which I'm not going to teach publicly, then that's where I exit. Okay. And many times, I'm actually
87 00:15:52,710 --> 00:16:02,790 excellent before that anyway, so it is what it is. But you can see I got out right before the actual highest high of the day. And legend maker Fibonacci was
88 00:16:02,790 --> 00:16:12,180 just shy of the actual high today. So in that case, it would have been very close to calling the daily high. So it is what it is, I gave you an example of
89 00:16:12,690 --> 00:16:22,290 trying to take profits. Today, I'll give you a screenshot of where this demo account was rejecting my price wouldn't give me the actual high. And I was
90 00:16:22,290 --> 00:16:29,580 trying to do that in here. And it wouldn't, it wouldn't let me do it. So I ended up having to get out here didn't want to ride back any of this, and ultimately
91 00:16:30,150 --> 00:16:45,090 allowed me to take the two final portions off, as the price rammed up into the 128 20 level. Now, the actual high on this day comes in at exactly 128 20. Now,
92 00:16:45,300 --> 00:16:57,780 for your notes, this is very, very, very important. If you ever see a swing that sets up at a mid figure, I anticipate it reaching up to the 2780 level as an
93 00:16:57,780 --> 00:17:08,310 objective. And if it trades through 127 at anticipated rating, the 128. Or I'm saying there's no way specifically for this pair. But if you're trading, ever
94 00:17:08,310 --> 00:17:16,470 set up long ends up forming around the mid figure 50 level and you're bullish, anticipated trading up to the next 80 level. And if it trades through 80 with
95 00:17:16,470 --> 00:17:28,470 energy, anticipate it running through the next 00 level. Okay. And always, always anticipate some measure of 10 to 20 pips above that big figure. That's
96 00:17:28,470 --> 00:17:39,060 what these institutional levels are for, if nothing psychological about it, because honestly, markets don't move on psychology. Psychology is measured in
97 00:17:39,060 --> 00:17:48,360 what price has done, and what traders will most likely due. But think about what you most likely one of the last time last week, did you really execute on it?
98 00:17:48,360 --> 00:18:01,350 No. So Marcus don't move on psychology. Okay. They don't do that. They move on real market orders. Now sentiment is a derivative of what markets do. But
99 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:02,730 sentiment and
100 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:15,750 opinions, if you will, they are not the hallmarks to consistency. I don't use any thing about my trading. That's retail based. Okay, the only thing that's
101 00:18:16,590 --> 00:18:25,440 resembles retail is if I have a Fibonacci on the chart, you know, right away, they'll think it's Elliott Wave or something to that effect. And it's not I use
102 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:34,170 fibs for targeting. And the entry for optimal trade entry is just for you to see what I'm seeing in the general area. But believe me, there's something entirely
103 00:18:34,170 --> 00:18:42,780 different except for just that Fibonacci level. Okay, 60 to 70% trace level is not the magic I'm looking at. Okay? The mentorship knows what I'm looking for.
104 00:18:42,780 --> 00:18:51,270 But for now, for public perspective, it is enough to suffice and accomplish the means that's necessary for me to teach it to you. Okay, you can keep a fib on
105 00:18:51,270 --> 00:18:57,330 your chart the rest of your career and never want to get rid of it and there's nothing wrong with it. Okay, if you need that crutch to get into the trade,
106 00:18:57,540 --> 00:19:07,020 there's absolutely zero shame in having that, you know, it is what it is. Don't worry about it. But that's what I was using today. And you can see pretty much
107 00:19:07,020 --> 00:19:17,040 it has a real nice reaction off of that. See price had a real nice response back off that 128 figure and now we've broken down again. Okay, so hopefully you
108 00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:21,600 found this example insightful, and until next time, I wish you good luck and good trading.