Skip to Content

ICT YT - 2017-10-05 - Anticipating OTE Patterns - Early Entries.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-11 13:24
1 00:04:57,360 --> 00:04:58,650 ICT: Okay folks, welcome back
2 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:17,130 I saw you know that it's not on payroll week. So this Friday, we have non farm payroll coming out. And typically what will happen is, is on Mondays and
3 00:05:17,130 --> 00:05:27,720 Tuesdays are the best trading days. And Wednesday, Thursday and Friday tend to be a little bit iffy. In my experience, I've learned that it's better for me to
4 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:36,480 be at least active at the beginning of the week, and then come on jets. As we closer to Wednesday's, New York open.
5 00:05:39,090 --> 00:05:49,920 I don't want to promote the idea that you can't take any trades, obviously, because it's just my personal opinion, it's my own personal approach to
6 00:05:49,920 --> 00:06:02,430 analysis. I don't want to sway anyone's opinions or, you know, because in the past, I said, you shouldn't trade on Mondays. And a few of you have taken that
7 00:06:02,430 --> 00:06:11,040 as the gospel and the hardline that and said, You know, I thought it's not profitable to trade on Mondays and show on social media where a Monday's trade
8 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:20,790 is profitable. Again, I'm not trying to encourage that type of reaction from other people to SEO folks that aren't really interested in what I'm sharing. I'm
9 00:06:20,790 --> 00:06:32,550 just giving you my personal interpretation of price action. I'm not right all the time. And when I am right, I can justify why I was correct. When I'm wrong,
10 00:06:32,580 --> 00:06:42,330 I can also find out why relatively quickly, what went wrong. But that's the distinction between myself and most retail traders, retail traders don't have a
11 00:06:42,330 --> 00:06:51,000 clue what they're looking for. And when they're right or wrong, they really don't know how to attribute to us specifics or details. And you need to have the
12 00:06:51,000 --> 00:07:01,950 details. Okay, but we don't need details to the degree of precision, even though I kind of promote that idea in my analysis, you don't necessarily need it. And
13 00:07:01,950 --> 00:07:11,040 when we talk about optimal trade entry, it's a pattern that is very versatile. And you don't have to have yourself chained in front of the charts all the time.
14 00:07:12,030 --> 00:07:23,880 But you do have to know where the market's most likely reaching for. Okay, so I'm going to give you a little bit of a, a treatise on that. So looking at the
15 00:07:23,880 --> 00:07:35,310 cable last night, Okay, I'm gonna put the date dividers in here you can see. And here's the being a new day, Asia, in the market was dilly dallying around in a
16 00:07:35,310 --> 00:07:45,690 small little tight consolidation. Now, my personal expectation was we would see higher dollar. So therefore, if the dollar is being pressed higher, that's going
17 00:07:45,690 --> 00:07:52,170 to suppress foreign currencies or make them more likely to go lower, doesn't mean all foreign currencies are going to go lower.
18 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:05,520 It doesn't mean all foreign currencies are going to go lower, but they predominantly should go lower if the dollar is bullish. So what I was looking at
19 00:08:05,550 --> 00:08:17,130 is the tendency for cable to want to drop lower, clear out some liquidity and reach for lower prices that hadn't been seen for a while. And I'll outline that
20 00:08:17,130 --> 00:08:27,570 in a second. But for now, I kinda want to give you the same question. I started the video off with the screen capture of the agent session last night, during
21 00:08:27,570 --> 00:08:38,160 this smaller consolidation after these equal lows in here had been violated, okay, rated it and went back into the middle range. I want you to look at this.
22 00:08:42,780 --> 00:09:00,360 Okay, we all blow here. The markets traded essentially, around this level, above or below back to it hanging around resistance resistance. So I've used that as a
23 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:12,300 point of equilibrium. Okay, and since I'm bearish, or was bearish last night, I wanted to be a participant of this move. But truth be told, there's a lot of
24 00:09:12,300 --> 00:09:20,340 personal things going on my life. And I'm exhausted, I'm tired. So I didn't want to get up at London. I didn't want to get up at midnight, the check anything,
25 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:33,480 but I wanted to participate. So what I did was I went short rate, the market rate equilibrium. The expectation is that we would see this big dramatic move
26 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:42,390 right here. Think about sniper series. If you haven't seen that yet, you will be able to see it. This month, I'm bringing it back on my website. And here's
27 00:09:42,390 --> 00:09:53,550 optimal trade entry. Okay, using the bodies of the candles as referred to in the OTC primer, it's on YouTube with the mindset video. Optimal trade entry right in
28 00:09:53,550 --> 00:10:06,000 here 62% retracement level 70.5 and 79% Okay. There might specific levels how it's set up, and I'll teach you exactly how to put that in your fib or mt four
29 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:17,280 or whatever platform you're using. So my expectation is, is I knew I wanted to be short. And I knew that the likelihood of upside would should be relatively
30 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:32,610 limited. And I focused on the approach of my concept of power three. Okay, and what that is, is, my expectation was to see, this is not the scale, folks. So
31 00:10:32,610 --> 00:10:45,060 just so you guys know, I was looking for this formation on the daily, okay, so let's think of this as a daily candle or a daily bar. And the open is right in
32 00:10:45,060 --> 00:10:56,250 here. Here's the opening price. And I wanted to see it rally up, but I didn't want to mess around with missing the move. And I didn't want to worry about
33 00:10:56,250 --> 00:11:03,240 whether or not I'm going to get in it or not, or Miss, you know, miss a real good entry, I don't really care about a real good entry, if I know, the
34 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:14,940 likelihood is it's going lower. So I want to get in around that opening price. Or if not higher, if I'm going to be shorting so is this ICT power three, um,
35 00:11:15,090 --> 00:11:25,770 got a video teaches that but the, the opening or above it is where I want to be selling short on bearish days. And I want to capture new lines portion of this
36 00:11:25,770 --> 00:11:36,690 move here. I don't care about getting the low, I got tools and techniques that might give me the idea where this price may be. But I don't care to actually
37 00:11:36,690 --> 00:11:46,170 happen as my exit, I do want to exit somewhere below the midpoint of the expected down range. Okay, so in other words, whatever I think the total daily
38 00:11:46,170 --> 00:11:55,680 ranges, my objective is, is I really want to be at 50% or below that for my exits. That's my, my personal model, I want to be doing that type of thing. And
39 00:11:55,680 --> 00:12:03,300 then I'll leave some pieces on the see if I can get these types of prices down here. But mostly, I'm not always getting it. So to be honest, that's really what
40 00:12:03,300 --> 00:12:12,990 it is, and 600. And some of you seen that day by day where if I am right, I'm not always holding that last piece of the pie. I could care less about being
41 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:21,450 accurate. Besides my portion is so small, it's insignificant at that point. The premise is you want to be profitable, not perfect, because perfect is
42 00:12:21,450 --> 00:12:30,000 unrealistic. And you'll never get that. But profitable is realistic, and it can be obtained. And that's all I'm trying to promote the ideal. And now, I can't
43 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:37,950 promise you profitability, and I can't promise you what I'm teaching is going to give you profits. But over time, you'll learn what approached it using the
44 00:12:37,950 --> 00:12:51,330 optimal trade entry, you'll like to have, okay, so let's go back to this, I want to be short, above the opening price, which is here. And being short, I wanted
45 00:12:51,330 --> 00:12:59,130 to know how much of a move this power three high would be. So if we look at that in the scope of
46 00:13:03,270 --> 00:13:21,420 I thought that you guys would appreciate this. But this is a 30 PIP range. And I'm going to apply it to the opening price right there. Right there. Okay, so
47 00:13:21,420 --> 00:13:33,690 here's the opening price. 30 pips above that takes us above here, so my stop has to be above here, preferably up to this point here. So around 30 to 6130, to 62
48 00:13:33,750 --> 00:13:42,720 ish, something like that, that's where my stop has to be. So I can be a seller down here right during Asian range. Not give to Spitz about how how far it's
49 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:49,110 going to go up if it's gonna be a dramatic spike up, or it's going to be a lethargic drag all the way up to that price point. But I don't want to be
50 00:13:49,500 --> 00:13:57,810 worrying about getting stopped out. And I just don't want to be up for London. So I want to get some sleep. So I wanted to participate I did a small little one
51 00:13:58,050 --> 00:14:09,780 standard lot. And I didn't care too much about making much more about that position than that simply. So expectation is I want to see it reached down to a
52 00:14:09,780 --> 00:14:20,910 specific price level. Okay, now here's the myth about trading that I got wrapped up into and not first started the entries The most important thing and it's not
53 00:14:21,630 --> 00:14:33,030 the entry is not the most important thing. Knowing where the price is most likely trying to go to is what's most significant. So if we go out to take this
54 00:14:33,030 --> 00:14:39,360 off here and wrap this video up cuz I don't want to be too long. If we got to a four hour chart
55 00:14:44,580 --> 00:15:03,480 Okay. Do you see this consolidation here? We rally to way smaller consolidation rally away again. And then we climax high retrace Lower, retracement lower,
56 00:15:03,780 --> 00:15:17,190 retracement lower consolidation inside the consolidation over here. And what we'll be resting below here. Self stops. Okay, Southside liquidity. So what we
57 00:15:17,190 --> 00:15:18,720 have here is a market maker,
58 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:19,860 somehow.
59 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:30,270 Okay. So what I was using was last night, I knew we were in this area over here with the expectation of targeting the liquidity resting below the consolidation
60 00:15:30,270 --> 00:15:38,280 over here. So one of the parrot my orders with what would be existing in the marketplace, in the form of sell stops, why would there be cell stops resting
61 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:48,270 here, because this is the last intermediate term below prior to this run up, that trailed stop losses would be placed right underneath. And they're going to
62 00:15:48,270 --> 00:15:57,900 target those individuals. With that run, you can see it's happened here, post trade. But I want to go back into a 15 minute timeframe, and apply what
63 00:15:57,900 --> 00:16:13,230 everything looked like to me, in my mind. Okay, this is what it looked like. This is how I interpreted price at the time of my entry in here. Okay, and I'll
64 00:16:13,230 --> 00:16:24,180 show you what that looks like. Also, we'll just do this, I'll throw on the the last portion of that movie, you see, there's been no other trade since my last
65 00:16:24,180 --> 00:16:36,120 year of trade. So I'm practicing what I preach. I don't want to be trading a lot during the non farm payroll week. So there's my entry right here. And there's my
66 00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:45,720 stop loss being tagged. Okay, it got stopped out right there just got really, really tight, because I didn't believe it would be worth holding any type of
67 00:16:45,750 --> 00:16:55,320 bounce in here, because we had an ADR low. And it's not from payroll week. So it could have easily came down here, hit this and chop back around. And I've given
68 00:16:55,320 --> 00:17:04,560 up a lot of the portion of the move, you can watch in the video. first couple minutes of this video, I was scaling out at logical levels, and trailing my stop
69 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:13,770 loss tighter and tighter and tighter. And I don't always try to get out at the ideal scenario because ideal scenario doesn't always pan out for me. I live in
70 00:17:13,770 --> 00:17:23,970 the real world. So I've been hurt many times trying to get the absolute best exit. To me, this is favorable. Okay, so now what we're looking at is this is
71 00:17:23,970 --> 00:17:32,100 the four hour market maker sell model liquidity pool, okay, which is that consolidation I showed you on the four hour chart that levels that that low, and
72 00:17:32,100 --> 00:17:44,970 then below that 20 pips or so takes us down into the 3132 level. So in that area, that takes us about 20 pips or so below the low. And depending on your
73 00:17:44,970 --> 00:17:51,870 data feed, you're going to have a slightly different number in terms of what 20 pips would be below that, but you can see how Look, they're consolidating around
74 00:17:51,870 --> 00:17:59,550 here. Now it could drop one more time lower, I could care less, I'm already out flat, can't make any more money can't lose any more money long and short is this
75 00:17:59,550 --> 00:18:08,820 is where they're accumulating all the orders that are residing underneath that for our blow. So it's a liquidity pool, where the market maker sell model, okay.
76 00:18:09,270 --> 00:18:18,360 So my expectation was, again, at the open, I was willing to absorb whatever upside would be, but I was willing to allow it to go up to this point, which is
77 00:18:18,360 --> 00:18:27,300 the reason why you'll have one standard one. So shorting here allowing price to go up to this level to be stopped me out. But really, the expectation is, this
78 00:18:27,300 --> 00:18:33,660 is where I thought price would go up to during the London session. This starts the actual London session, which is one o'clock in the morning, New York time
79 00:18:33,660 --> 00:18:42,090 for me, this is the London open kill zone ICT kills and there's a lot of folks using those buzzwords, on YouTube, YouTube, Killzone power three, and they're
80 00:18:42,090 --> 00:18:51,810 not teaching what I teach, okay, I create these own my own names, okay, had to create a vocabulary. So it's, please don't be confused. If you see other people
81 00:18:51,930 --> 00:18:59,280 using those terms. kind of go back to if you're going to be looking at anything I'm teaching kind of go back to what I teach with it because it did become real
82 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:08,160 buzzwords and institutional institutional that so long and short is it went right to the very beginning of the ICT, London open kill zone 1am in New York
83 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:21,480 time, nailed it perfectly right at the 62%. And then 70% 70.5%. Rather, the bodies want rate to 62 but the spike up in here on this particular candle and
84 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:34,320 he's doing a little bit guys can see. Okay, you can see, it went right up into the 70.5 level right in here. Okay, and EDR was hit and asked us where all my
85 00:19:34,710 --> 00:19:45,540 objectives were filled at this low or just below it. Again, I'll show you what they look like again, here you can see it there. And this is a limit order. I
86 00:19:45,540 --> 00:19:55,920 was going to try to add to that short on the euro dollar day and just didn't get trip. So that's why it was cancelled in case you're wondering what that was. And
87 00:19:55,980 --> 00:20:05,160 that's it folks. Optimal trade entry was the idea. It may pan out, but I didn't want to be in there. And honestly, I could have had my orders at 62% retracement
88 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:09,600 level or just below it to get filled. But it could have just simply rolled right over
89 00:20:09,660 --> 00:20:16,290 and went lower and I would have never gotten filled. So when I have instances where I feel that the most likely going to happen, I just go right into the
90 00:20:16,290 --> 00:20:24,720 Asian range, don't risk a whole lot don't put a whole lot of leverage on determine where the projected high may be based on power three. And you can see,
91 00:20:24,870 --> 00:20:37,980 this is what we're looking at here. Now I'm going to change this to default. So you guys can see a daily candle. And it'll be exactly as I just described to
92 00:20:37,980 --> 00:20:53,040 you. And we'll change it to a bar chart and zoom in. And here's the power three, the opening price smaller rally up Now usually about 30 pips or so. And then it
93 00:20:53,040 --> 00:21:02,640 drops down, creates the low of the day and comes off the low. There it is. And here's the consolidation on daily chart targeted that liquidity right there. So
94 00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:10,470 everything moves algorithmically. And there's a rhyme and reason why price does everything it does. There's nothing ambiguous about it. And there's nothing that
95 00:21:10,470 --> 00:21:20,370 is, you know, mysterious. We can come up with all kinds of clever ways to make it sound mysterious, but it really is as simple as looking for liquidity. So
96 00:21:20,370 --> 00:21:30,450 hopefully you found this teaching in video insightful. If you like what you saw, leave a comment on twitter at I am ICT and till next time, wish you good luck
97 00:21:30,450 --> 00:21:31,140 and good trading.