ICT-WENT-05.srt
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-10 09:21
| 1 | 00:00:12,030 --> 00:00:26,010 | ICT: Hello, folks, we are in the final installment for the what every new and or aspiring forex trader wants to know, review the last four years of so I'm really |
| 2 | 00:00:26,010 --> 00:00:36,630 | condensed a lot of material. And it's not intended to replace going through all the old material, but it's just simply a means for me to get you back up to |
| 3 | 00:00:36,630 --> 00:00:47,490 | speed with the core essential tenants to what I use when I do my trading, my analysis concepts and how I arrive at the ideas about the marketplace, and in |
| 4 | 00:00:47,850 --> 00:01:01,890 | what framework I utilize to arrive at that, that opinion. Before we go into the material for this final stage of the presentations, it's important to understand |
| 5 | 00:01:01,890 --> 00:01:18,030 | that this is obviously much of an abbreviated form of study, obviously, each one of the components that I deal with here, and some of the things I've left out |
| 6 | 00:01:18,030 --> 00:01:28,560 | like traitors, Trinity, and like the overall pattern, and the stinger patterns, all that are unique to me and my material, I left those out for a reason, |
| 7 | 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:43,290 | because I think a majority of the participants and and members of our community, inner circle trader community, they have been exposed to a lot of information. |
| 8 | 00:01:43,470 --> 00:01:57,420 | And because I've been involved with trading for 20 years, I have a lot of tools in my repertoire. But not every tool is applicable to every trader. And I'm |
| 9 | 00:01:57,420 --> 00:02:08,820 | cognizant of that, and much more. So now because of the large degree of feedback I've received from the participants in the study of my material. I am guilty of |
| 10 | 00:02:08,820 --> 00:02:17,640 | wanting to share everything, and sometimes much faster, even though it doesn't seem like it's going fast for a lot of you. It takes a lot of time to digest |
| 11 | 00:02:17,640 --> 00:02:26,700 | this material. And it's it's foolish to think just simply having a video to watching it and then suddenly sitting in front your charts, you're just going to |
| 12 | 00:02:26,700 --> 00:02:35,070 | be a Maven, and just go in here and start taking out pips and you know, and just roll in the markets. And that's not how it works. You have to have certain tools |
| 13 | 00:02:35,070 --> 00:02:48,540 | and applications that resonate very close to your own persona and your psyche as a trader. And what I did was I went back to the core roots of all of my success, |
| 14 | 00:02:48,570 --> 00:02:58,830 | and it just simply goes back to support resistance, understanding macro, fundamental driven trends, which are higher timeframe based only at monthly, |
| 15 | 00:02:58,830 --> 00:03:13,650 | weekly, daily. And by having that as your foundation, a lot of the shorter term timeframe, analysis concepts will be much more accurate, much more sensitive to |
| 16 | 00:03:13,650 --> 00:03:19,440 | your needs as a trader and understanding what it is that you are trying to accomplish as a trader. |
| 17 | 00:03:21,090 --> 00:03:30,810 | The previous sessions we've obviously went through a large degree of material pertain to directional premise, because I think if there's any one question I |
| 18 | 00:03:30,810 --> 00:03:41,400 | get more sent to me by way of Twitter or emails, it's how do I know which direction the market is going to go today. And while I'm not 100% accurate, |
| 19 | 00:03:41,700 --> 00:03:52,080 | every single day, my tools guide me, no matter where I'm in the Upper 90% bracket in terms of directional premise, and there's really no, there's no |
| 20 | 00:03:52,080 --> 00:04:08,640 | mystery as to why that is, is simply because I'm disciplined enough. And I trust the tools to allow the adherence to a certain frame of mind going into the study |
| 21 | 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:18,630 | of price. At the higher timeframe trends tend to stay in one direction or another for a long period of time. There may be minor corrections or pauses in |
| 22 | 00:04:18,630 --> 00:04:28,290 | between, but generally, the macro major trends are tides, if you will, those waters tend to keep moving in the same direction for a long period of time until |
| 23 | 00:04:28,290 --> 00:04:44,160 | they hit a greater or equal resistance in terms of your support or resistance or political or economic front changes because of something you know large scale |
| 24 | 00:04:44,850 --> 00:04:56,400 | war something like that comes out the the concepts we're gonna be discussing in this last one will be a little bit of combining all the stuff together and a |
| 25 | 00:04:56,400 --> 00:05:03,420 | couple other points that I didn't bring up earlier, but We're going to be much more Paramount now, because we're gonna be doing a lot more of the execution |
| 26 | 00:05:03,420 --> 00:05:13,890 | stage of all the tools. And the first one I'm talking about is risk on or risk off. And if you don't know what that is, obviously, in a risk on environment, |
| 27 | 00:05:14,100 --> 00:05:26,190 | that's typically when you see equities, stocks and such commodities and higher yielding currencies, okay, they will tend to rally or move higher up in in |
| 28 | 00:05:26,190 --> 00:05:35,850 | price, while the dollar generally will be moving down, okay, because it's commonly viewed. And I hate to say it like this, because the dollar has been |
| 29 | 00:05:35,850 --> 00:05:43,890 | beaten up over the last couple decades, really, because it's really fallen out of favor in terms of a lot of the global |
| 30 | 00:05:45,330 --> 00:05:53,700 | countries, they don't really have a lot of faith in the United States in our economy. And I think it's justified in a lot of ways. But as it is right now, |
| 31 | 00:05:53,700 --> 00:06:06,720 | greenback still is the reserve currency. It may not be that way for very long, but it is at the time of this recording in 2014. If we are expecting firmer |
| 32 | 00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:17,580 | prices in the dollar, that would equate to a risk off scenario. And that would translate in the form of lower equity or stock prices, lower higher yielding |
| 33 | 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:29,430 | foreign currencies, and commodity prices dropping, okay, and you don't have to go crazy and have every single commodity in every single stock up in every |
| 34 | 00:06:29,430 --> 00:06:43,050 | single indicee. Okay, for stock index, you just need a few. And that will give you a clear depiction every single day. With the accompany of the US dollar. |
| 35 | 00:06:43,050 --> 00:06:51,960 | Obviously, what we're showing here is a US dollar daily chart. And if you're familiar with a lot of my market reviews are my commentary. I generally have |
| 36 | 00:06:51,960 --> 00:07:03,330 | this most often very first thing I talk about is the dollar. Because it is like my barometer it tells me that are we in a trending environment? Are we in a |
| 37 | 00:07:03,330 --> 00:07:12,270 | consolidation environment? Are we in a risk on risk off environment, there's a lot of information that is derived by this simply understanding the dollar. And |
| 38 | 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:21,390 | especially because I trade the majors in forex, it's going to be paramount in my understanding of where price is most likely going to go today, if not for the |
| 39 | 00:07:21,690 --> 00:07:29,610 | next few days or even several months out. Depending on the level of trader, you're going to be if you're going to be a long term position trader, short term |
| 40 | 00:07:29,610 --> 00:07:41,460 | trader swing trader or day trader scalper, it doesn't make sense not to at least reference the higher timeframe dollar and higher time frame currency pairs that |
| 41 | 00:07:41,460 --> 00:07:51,150 | you are intending the trade. Okay, having that macro view is essential, in my opinion, to having longevity as a trader, and obviously the what everybody |
| 42 | 00:07:51,150 --> 00:08:01,200 | wants, which is high accuracy, and directional premise, okay, and it's a lot of weight placed on directional premise for new traders and I get it I did the same |
| 43 | 00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:10,230 | thing I just wanted to know, okay, is it going to go up or go? No, it's going to go down. And you've all heard the story, I understood the market only going up |
| 44 | 00:08:10,230 --> 00:08:18,060 | when I first started never understood that you can make money going down. But in the currency markets, obviously, you know, because we are focusing pretty much |
| 45 | 00:08:18,060 --> 00:08:28,800 | on the foreign exchange or Forex markets. And this in a series, the things that I'm discussing here are pretty much universal, they apply to every asset class |
| 46 | 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:41,610 | that is tradable, okay, and you can use these ideas in those other asset classes in your trading. There are a few things that are sensitive to the cable, which |
| 47 | 00:08:41,610 --> 00:08:54,270 | is the British Pound USD pair, and the fiber which is a Euro USD pair. Some of them are time of day. And while the London session, which is again I'll refer to |
| 48 | 00:08:54,300 --> 00:09:05,550 | times in my own local time zone, so you'll have to translate that for where you are in relationship to me around the globe, because it's too difficult for me to |
| 49 | 00:09:05,550 --> 00:09:14,160 | keep track all you guys out there and try to figure out what you should be setting your charts up for and what time it would be. You know, in respect to |
| 50 | 00:09:14,190 --> 00:09:25,020 | what I'm doing, okay, so when I say two o'clock in the morning, and four o'clock in the morning, okay, that's like the sweet spot ICT kill zone for London open. |
| 51 | 00:09:25,470 --> 00:09:37,260 | Now obviously it could start an hour before that. Or it could last as long as 5am New York time against all New York standard. My Local United States North |
| 52 | 00:09:37,260 --> 00:09:45,930 | America, East Coast time. Okay. So the easiest way to do it is set a clock. Get yourself a little, you know, desktop application you can put on your computer. |
| 53 | 00:09:46,920 --> 00:10:01,530 | Smartphones you can put a world clock on. I have every world clock for the this the asian session, the Sydney session, the Frankfurt session. I have I basically |
| 54 | 00:10:01,530 --> 00:10:11,700 | have all the major timezone on my world clock on my iPhone, and I just look at certain times of the day when certain moves take place. And you can do that same |
| 55 | 00:10:11,700 --> 00:10:19,290 | thing, but just simply saying, Okay, look, this is ICT zone. Okay, this is what this is what Michaels feeling in terms of price action. You don't have to |
| 56 | 00:10:19,290 --> 00:10:27,930 | continue doing that for years from now. Okay, obviously, if you're trying to learn my understanding of the marketplace and my concepts, it'll be a lot easier |
| 57 | 00:10:27,930 --> 00:10:39,120 | for you to get in sync with me, because I'm on New York time. So everything that I view the marketplace, as, in reference to time will be hinged upon what time |
| 58 | 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:45,630 | is it in New York, I live in Maryland, but I'm in the timezone that New York is viewed as. |
| 59 | 00:10:46,860 --> 00:10:53,070 | So now, let's talk about risk on and risk off. Okay, assume for a moment that |
| 60 | 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:54,870 | Unknown: when we discuss |
| 61 | 00:10:55,680 --> 00:11:07,170 | ICT: risk on scenarios, that would be indicative of price action like this. Okay, when risk on is in the marketplace, okay, you'll see the dollar falling. |
| 62 | 00:11:07,950 --> 00:11:18,210 | Okay. When the dollar rallies, anytime the price of the dollar is rallying up. depending upon what time frame you're referring to, obviously, this is a daily |
| 63 | 00:11:18,210 --> 00:11:31,980 | chart, this would be a swing, okay, in between this low and this high. This would be classified as a risk off scenario, okay, risk off would be the dollar |
| 64 | 00:11:31,980 --> 00:11:43,290 | rallying. Now when this occurs, okay, imagine a children's playground apparatus, okay, we probably all rode one of the children as a child, one child gets on one |
| 65 | 00:11:43,290 --> 00:11:51,000 | end of the seesaw, and another child gets on the other end of the sea salt, okay. And what will happen is, is this, the two children will press off the |
| 66 | 00:11:51,090 --> 00:12:01,560 | ground and make the other one rise up and back and forth goes on. Well, that same teetering effect, okay. It's like a scale as well. If the dollar goes up, |
| 67 | 00:12:01,560 --> 00:12:10,620 | foreign currencies go down, okay, if the dollar goes down, foreign currencies go up. It's very, very simple. But many times new traders are first introduced to |
| 68 | 00:12:10,620 --> 00:12:18,510 | risk on risk off, they overcomplicate it, and they try to make more than it really is. But the easiest way to understand it is if the dollar is going up, |
| 69 | 00:12:18,900 --> 00:12:30,510 | everything else, whether it be equities, whether it be foreign currencies, commodities, okay, those will be going the opposite direction. Okay. And the |
| 70 | 00:12:30,510 --> 00:12:42,720 | easiest way to understand it is risk one is when dollar goes down, okay, and that's basically a flight from the dollar into a higher yield seeking asset |
| 71 | 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:51,480 | class. Okay? Because it's viewed as more risky. And the dollar is a safe haven. And I say that with tongue in cheek, obvious, I know, most of you who are, are |
| 72 | 00:12:51,480 --> 00:13:03,060 | thinking the same thing I do. The dollar is is nowhere near the degree of benchmark like it used to be, but as it were, if the dollar is going up, okay, |
| 73 | 00:13:03,060 --> 00:13:11,700 | that's going to be a risk off scenario. And that's gonna equate to seeing lower stock prices, commodity prices will be declining, and foreign currencies will be |
| 74 | 00:13:11,700 --> 00:13:20,820 | declining, okay. So there's going to be a vice versa effect. And that's the reason why I started the dollar first, because it will give me the beginning |
| 75 | 00:13:20,820 --> 00:13:31,350 | point or foundation for understanding where the marketplace as a whole should go. Okay, now, is it right to the minute every time? No, okay. But again, |
| 76 | 00:13:31,350 --> 00:13:40,170 | that's, that's the benefit of using these higher timeframe charts, monthly, weekly, daily, is because those trends, those macro trends, they tend to exist |
| 77 | 00:13:40,170 --> 00:13:52,560 | for a long period of time, and it takes something with a real large impact on price to cause it to stop pause or even altogether reverse. Okay, so I'm trying |
| 78 | 00:13:52,560 --> 00:14:00,480 | to teach you the understanding of trusting the higher timeframe premise, especially when you're looking at macro trends, macro trends are going to be |
| 79 | 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:11,670 | arrived at by looking at higher timeframe charts, and looking at asset class to indicee or dollar based correlations. In other words, if you're a stock trader, |
| 80 | 00:14:11,670 --> 00:14:21,630 | obviously, you know, if you're, if you trade New York, or future American stocks, your benchmark would be obviously the Dow 30, the s&p 500 or the NASDAQ |
| 81 | 00:14:21,630 --> 00:14:33,030 | 100 Composite Index, okay. And by looking at those three indices as a whole, okay, and applying such things as Dow Theory, if you're looking at a marketplace |
| 82 | 00:14:33,030 --> 00:14:40,140 | that is poised to go higher in the indices, that's pretty much good. That's a good time to be buying a stock. Well, the same thing happens by looking at the |
| 83 | 00:14:40,140 --> 00:14:50,610 | dollar, but you have to invert it. Okay, so if the dollar is poised to rally, okay, it's important that you understand that if you start looking to buy |
| 84 | 00:14:51,090 --> 00:15:04,230 | foreign currencies, okay? You're you're trading okay? against the undertone of adverse market environment. In other words, you're going to be trading at the |
| 85 | 00:15:04,230 --> 00:15:13,410 | lowest probability for that move to occur because the dollar, if it's poised to go higher, what does that translate to in foreign currencies, lower foreign |
| 86 | 00:15:13,410 --> 00:15:24,060 | currency prices. Okay. So let's look at an example. And actually have some notes on this chart as it were, because I did a live session here about a week ago. |
| 87 | 00:15:24,510 --> 00:15:32,010 | And I made some comments about where I think the dollar was going to go and the behavior I expected. And some of you that were in the live session, obviously, |
| 88 | 00:15:32,010 --> 00:15:41,640 | will will recognize these lines and what I was doing, but this level here, okay, this is a resistance level price was unable to break above that. And I was using |
| 89 | 00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:47,640 | a lot of the wicks and the bodies of the candles as reference points. Okay, so I'll use the two bodies of the candles and the wicks. |
| 90 | 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:58,650 | Looking at this level here, we broke through it a week ago, and mid week and then came back down on the previous week's Friday. And I was noting these levels |
| 91 | 00:15:58,650 --> 00:16:06,030 | here, this level and this level. So if we broke through and came back down, it would most likely find some support here, or find some support here. So that's |
| 92 | 00:16:06,030 --> 00:16:18,150 | the reason why we have this little thing here I drew. So let's get this off, because it's probably confusing you. Okay, and this line here, is just represent |
| 93 | 00:16:18,150 --> 00:16:25,950 | if these two levels give way, we would come back down to this level and expect some sort of support to come under way. Now, when price comes back down to this |
| 94 | 00:16:25,950 --> 00:16:33,360 | level, even though it sweeps below it previous Friday, look where it closes, it closes right at that same level. And then when Sunday we had an unchanged event, |
| 95 | 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:41,850 | we had a little bit of movement, try to push above it again here on Monday, and then Tuesday, we had to rally. And now here it is, today, Wednesday, prices now |
| 96 | 00:16:41,910 --> 00:16:50,640 | are the received but it did trade higher. This environment right here where price comes down to an expected level of support. Your mind should be thinking, |
| 97 | 00:16:50,640 --> 00:17:01,920 | Okay, we're in a move that's been going higher. Okay, we broke a resistance, this may act as support. So again, what's that translate for? risk more risk |
| 98 | 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:12,210 | off? Well, if we think if price comes to this level here and bounces higher, okay? That's implying that we're going to expect the US dollar to rally that is |
| 99 | 00:17:12,210 --> 00:17:24,480 | going to be what risk on or risk off, it's going to be risk off. Because when there's less risk taking to be made in the environment of speculation, the |
| 100 | 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:32,130 | dollar will be bought, okay, there's gonna be a flight to quality. Okay, that's what it's what I'm not gonna argue with me guys. It's this way it's called. |
| 101 | 00:17:32,460 --> 00:17:41,430 | Okay. So he, whether you want to refer the dollar as being quality aspect over or not, it's, that's what it is. So, a flight to quality sees firmer prices in |
| 102 | 00:17:41,430 --> 00:17:52,410 | the dollar. And that will translate to a lower move, or sell signals, if you will, in the foreign currencies. Now, again, because I trade the majors, that's |
| 103 | 00:17:52,410 --> 00:18:04,860 | the British Pound USD, the Euro USD, once in a while, once in a while, I'll trade Canadian dollar or Aussie dollar, okay, but generally, I'll trade you |
| 104 | 00:18:04,860 --> 00:18:16,800 | know, just the fiber, fiber and cable. But now understanding the relationship to this, when we come down to a support level like this, that means one Friday when |
| 105 | 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:28,170 | we trade it back down to that level from Friday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, okay? in that in that area, okay, what we're looking for is cell scenarios to occur in |
| 106 | 00:18:28,170 --> 00:18:37,590 | fiber and cable. Okay. So again, to reiterate this, we're looking at the price that was above it on Thursday, the week before this recording, price comes down |
| 107 | 00:18:37,590 --> 00:18:50,250 | on Friday trades through it, but then comes right back to encloses, okay, so as early as Friday, of last week. And the or basically August 1 of 2014 is what |
| 108 | 00:18:50,250 --> 00:19:01,110 | we're actually gonna refer to as date. Then, Sunday's opening, and then Monday's trading. And then Tuesday's trading, and then today's Wednesday's trading, okay, |
| 109 | 00:19:01,230 --> 00:19:15,090 | and the time of this recording is the sixth of August. And let's take a look at what that looks like in reference to the cable. We're going to zoom in and make |
| 110 | 00:19:15,090 --> 00:19:22,830 | you really understand what's going on and how to incorporate this information. Okay, so we have this is Wednesday's trading is the daily chart of the British |
| 111 | 00:19:22,830 --> 00:19:39,810 | Pound USD. This is Tuesday's trading, Monday's trading. Sunday's trading, Friday's trading. Okay, so in here. We have price. We draw a little line here. |
| 112 | 00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:46,530 | Okay, right in here. This level |
| 113 | 00:19:52,830 --> 00:20:09,570 | Good grief. Work with me here. Okay. Wednesday, Tuesday. Monday, Sunday, Friday, okay, right in here, this down, move this down move right in here correlates |
| 114 | 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:23,400 | with the previous week. Okay, the previous week in the dollar right here, when price came down right in here that began the hunting ground, if you will, to |
| 115 | 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:33,600 | start looking for sell scenarios in the cable and fiber and other currencies as well any foreign currency, okay, against the dollar. If it's front currency, for |
| 116 | 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:43,050 | instance, again, let's go back to the cable, look up here, get the British Pound USD, if we're expecting the USD or dollar to rally, okay, if the currency is |
| 117 | 00:20:43,050 --> 00:20:51,150 | before the USD in the pairing, okay, like in this case, for this major, the British Pound should do what it should decline if the dollar is going to go up |
| 118 | 00:20:51,240 --> 00:21:01,470 | to British pounds gonna drop so if the front currency, in this case as the British pound, you're going to see selling pressure if the dollar finds some |
| 119 | 00:21:01,470 --> 00:21:09,180 | support here. Okay. Now, what we're going to do is we're going to zoom in on this day and we're going to, we're going to look at the relationship between the |
| 120 | 00:21:09,180 --> 00:21:18,630 | two. Okay, and we're going to really judge with X ray view, is there really risk on risk off scenarios underway, okay, and now I'll explain that as we get to it. |
| 121 | 00:21:19,620 --> 00:21:40,200 | Let's go over to a 15 minute time frame. And we'll zoom out a little bit. Little bit more net and let's take this scroll off because it's going to mess with me. |
| 122 | 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:52,050 | Alright, so here we have price trading lower in this take these. This is Sunday trading in here. This is previous week's Friday. And this is the new week |
| 123 | 00:21:52,050 --> 00:22:03,780 | Monday. Okay, so we have that in reference that can take this off now. In here, this down move in here this sell signal, look what happens. You have a high, a |
| 124 | 00:22:03,780 --> 00:22:14,880 | low and a rally up. Okay. In here, this is how we look for the patterns. When the scenarios poised to unfold with firmer dollar. We should see weaker prices |
| 125 | 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:25,440 | and cable. Okay, we're in this case British Pound USD. When we have that environment, what we'd start to do is we apply specifics like time of day, okay, |
| 126 | 00:22:25,470 --> 00:22:37,200 | and here is the beginning of that day is zero GMT. This candles high right in here is eight GMT, and 858 15 GMT is actually the highest one right in here at |
| 127 | 00:22:37,230 --> 00:22:49,530 | 815 GMT. That is what I teach is the ICT London open kill zone. Okay, now kill zone is a pocket of time typically about three hours long. London's a little bit |
| 128 | 00:22:49,530 --> 00:22:59,070 | wider because it's a lot of activity going on. It's a lot of overlay from previous day's trading from New York going into Asia, there's a lot of highs and |
| 129 | 00:22:59,070 --> 00:23:06,960 | lows have to be retraced into maybe time maintenance blown out during Frankfurt or early London open. And that'll usually cause the daily higher low to form. |
| 130 | 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:16,530 | Now in this case, obviously the highs a little bit earlier in, in during asian session. But nonetheless, we have a very tradable high at the key timeframe of |
| 131 | 00:23:16,530 --> 00:23:36,990 | the ICT London open kill zone. Now again, my charts here are GMT obviously, but seven GMT, which is equivalent to like 2am, my time in New York. And nine GMT is |
| 132 | 00:23:36,990 --> 00:23:47,520 | like 4am my time. So between seven and nine GMT, that's typically where your higher low during London really forms, okay, so if you really break it out that |
| 133 | 00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:55,740 | much time, over a long sample size of data, you're going to see it multiple times per week, you're going to see that the higher low for that particular day |
| 134 | 00:23:55,920 --> 00:24:03,090 | will occur between those specific time posts, if you will. So if you've got to start to bracket out your time, on your charts, you'll be able to do that and |
| 135 | 00:24:03,090 --> 00:24:13,590 | see very clearly when highs and lows form. Now with that understanding, Okay, with that understanding, we can start now increasing the level of accuracy by |
| 136 | 00:24:13,590 --> 00:24:27,690 | having this insight of risk on risk off. And what I'm going to do is now to add a period separator and what I'm going to do is I'm going to add it to five GMT. |
| 137 | 00:24:28,380 --> 00:24:38,790 | And what that's going to be is midnight to my my time, okay? And it's very, very light, I know but it's right here, this vertical line. Okay, and what I'll do is |
| 138 | 00:24:38,790 --> 00:24:40,410 | now I'm going to zoom in a little bit more. |
| 139 | 00:24:44,100 --> 00:24:53,610 | Right in here is midnight and New York. Now that's what I call the new day. Now obviously there's trading prior to that, okay, but I call that the asian session |
| 140 | 00:24:53,640 --> 00:25:04,470 | or Asian range. Asia goes a little bit farther, but obviously I look at this vertical Why are delineation of of midnight New York as my beginning marker, |
| 141 | 00:25:04,530 --> 00:25:15,420 | it's this denotes the new day to me, what you'll want to see is if you're expecting, again, the dollar was at that time trading at a support level, okay, |
| 142 | 00:25:15,420 --> 00:25:22,920 | or what we would expect to see support. So that would be a risk off scenario dollar rally in foreign currencies going lower. What to expect, what you'll |
| 143 | 00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:32,370 | expect to see happen is specific times of the day will translate into setups, okay? You have a key high here, okay, little, little short term swing high in |
| 144 | 00:25:32,370 --> 00:25:42,090 | here. Watch what happens when you take your fib and the low prior to this vertical line here. You what you're going to be expecting is you want to see a |
| 145 | 00:25:42,090 --> 00:25:53,280 | rally. Okay, you want to see a rally after midnight, New York, because that rally is the sucker play, that neophyte traders get lulled into believing that |
| 146 | 00:25:53,280 --> 00:26:06,510 | this is a buying opportunity. Okay. And let's zoom in a little bit more just for clarity. So we have this high here, and the low prior to the move going up. Now |
| 147 | 00:26:06,510 --> 00:26:17,370 | move up at the New York, midnight time, which is five GMT. Again, easiest way for you guys to do is set a clock of some shape or form and where you're at as a |
| 148 | 00:26:17,370 --> 00:26:23,970 | trader, okay, put it next to your computer, put it on your computer, put it on your phone, put it somewhere and whenever you're watching my videos, or when you |
| 149 | 00:26:23,970 --> 00:26:29,490 | start watching my live sessions, when we start doing this stuff over the shoulder, you'll it'll obviously make a whole lot more sense because you'll see |
| 150 | 00:26:29,490 --> 00:26:36,330 | it but if you can't watch the live sessions as they're occurring, when you watch the recordings, it's not gonna make any sense to you unless you have the exact |
| 151 | 00:26:36,330 --> 00:26:43,920 | times lined up with your charts. And if you only do one or two trading sessions in London per week, if you trade like this, that's all you need. You don't need |
| 152 | 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:54,570 | to do every single day. But we're understanding that we are in an environment where cable or British Pound USD should decline if the dollar is going to find |
| 153 | 00:26:54,570 --> 00:27:07,020 | support. Okay. Now what will happen is you'll see the price rally up after midnight. Now, when will the signal occur as it starts to rally we understand |
| 154 | 00:27:07,020 --> 00:27:14,820 | that looking at price move in the opposite direction is optimal for entry. You can see that price just fell short of the setting. retracement level right in |
| 155 | 00:27:14,820 --> 00:27:25,290 | here didn't quite get there the high on that candle. It's just a pip below where the actual setting retracement level is. But look at the level of rejection once |
| 156 | 00:27:25,290 --> 00:27:33,810 | it gets that level boom takes off and trades the other direction. Okay, so by having the simple approach to using the fib and using the ICT optimal trade |
| 157 | 00:27:33,810 --> 00:27:43,320 | entry, or Oh t, which is simply just looking for a minimum of 62% retracement as much as 79% treatment and looking ideally for the sweet spot, which is |
| 158 | 00:27:44,130 --> 00:27:56,760 | basically, you know, the midpoint between 60 to 79. Now, I do not use the classical 78.6 and 61.28 wherever I don't even know what they are okay, I don't |
| 159 | 00:27:56,760 --> 00:28:03,420 | really care that much. Okay to know what they are, I just make it very simple for me. Okay, and some can argue that, you know, this isn't as accurate as it |
| 160 | 00:28:03,420 --> 00:28:13,500 | should be. But, you know, whatever, whatever floats your boat. Bottom line is, it does enough for me. And it makes it easier to teach it this way. And my |
| 161 | 00:28:13,500 --> 00:28:23,460 | children, because really, you are just beneficiaries of the resources that I'm actually sharing with my children. So when I'm talking, I'm actually talking to |
| 162 | 00:28:23,490 --> 00:28:31,710 | my children that have them in mind. So if sometimes I come across oversimplifying things, that's the reason why because I'm talking to my |
| 163 | 00:28:31,710 --> 00:28:32,760 | children. So |
| 164 | 00:28:34,530 --> 00:28:42,840 | understand that I want this is easily digestible as possible for them. And if something happens to me, they'll have these resources to turn back to and |
| 165 | 00:28:42,870 --> 00:28:52,440 | they'll have everything that I have, hopefully in my mind translated through these refugees resources and reference points. But the rallying up okay, what |
| 166 | 00:28:52,440 --> 00:29:02,610 | makes it optimal is is there's there's a large degree for price to not go very far once this framework is established. And what I mean by that, well, if the |
| 167 | 00:29:02,610 --> 00:29:11,310 | dollar is poised to trade higher, or we believe that the dollar will rally, okay, we want to look for ideally a soccer play or rally into you want to sell |
| 168 | 00:29:11,310 --> 00:29:21,450 | into this rally. I know it seems scary, okay. And it will seem scary for a great number of weeks and months until you understand by desensitizing yourself over |
| 169 | 00:29:21,450 --> 00:29:29,190 | and over and over again doing the same thing over and over again, by drills and studying expecting price to do anticipating price not trading, not demo trading, |
| 170 | 00:29:29,220 --> 00:29:36,360 | okay? But just studying prices, okay? It should react at this level, it should do this today into the London session and then should do this going in the New |
| 171 | 00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:44,850 | York. Having these ideas ahead of time will build your confidence and your anticipatory skills as a trader, which is essential. You cannot make money |
| 172 | 00:29:44,850 --> 00:29:53,670 | reacting to the price. Okay, you can't do that. You have to be anticipatory in nature as a trader. That way you can I identify when there's a most likely |
| 173 | 00:29:54,630 --> 00:30:02,370 | phenomenon to unfold, and what is that phenomenon? How does it How does it repeat itself? What does it look like before you can identify a repeating |
| 174 | 00:30:02,370 --> 00:30:13,230 | pattern and that's what we're showing here the simple notion of looking for a rally up after midnight now why is this important? Okay, I taught a principle |
| 175 | 00:30:13,830 --> 00:30:30,960 | which is I dubbed as the power three. And really what it is is very simple idea on days that are up so all since we're talking about a down move, let's just |
| 176 | 00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:31,620 | work with that. |
| 177 | 00:30:33,990 --> 00:30:44,370 | If we look at a candle, and we're gonna say this is a whole full daily range, okay? against this graphic depiction of daily range, I'm not I'm not gonna go to |
| 178 | 00:30:44,370 --> 00:30:52,260 | a daily chart and show it to you, but you will be able to see it in in price action over here. Typically, what will happen is is price will open up trade is |
| 179 | 00:30:52,260 --> 00:30:59,220 | very, very little bit above the opening price. Now, what's the opening price? That's going to be the question, okay, well, there's two opening prices that I |
| 180 | 00:30:59,220 --> 00:31:08,820 | referenced it's the opening price at zero GMT and zero I'm sorry the opening price at five GMT both of those opening prices are sensitive to me as a trader, |
| 181 | 00:31:08,820 --> 00:31:19,590 | I want to see what we do at those levels. Okay, what how we trade at above and below is important to me, if the context to my trading idea is $1 is rallying. |
| 182 | 00:31:19,950 --> 00:31:30,060 | Okay, or poised to rally. I want to see obviously the opening price in New York, midnight time, okay. I don't like to trade during Asia, you can and it's not my |
| 183 | 00:31:30,420 --> 00:31:38,490 | point to teach that. And here, it is my point to teach you that from five GMT, which is New York, midnight time. From that point on, if we're poised to trade |
| 184 | 00:31:38,490 --> 00:31:48,420 | higher in the dollar, you're going to expect or anticipate higher price rallies after midnight in the foreign currencies like for instance, the cable here, the |
| 185 | 00:31:48,420 --> 00:31:56,130 | British pounds should rally when we see that rally, we do not chase that thinking it's going to go higher. We look for this we are we are happy to see |
| 186 | 00:31:56,130 --> 00:32:04,770 | this Okay, emotions can be permitted here because we are expecting this to unfold, and it does unfold. Okay. So that's where emotions are acceptable, we |
| 187 | 00:32:04,770 --> 00:32:13,050 | expect this phenomenon to take place, we do not get excited about taking trades, we do not get excited about over leveraging we do not expect about anticipate |
| 188 | 00:32:13,050 --> 00:32:20,880 | making money and getting excited about that we are looking for the phenomenon to repeat, and then growing in confidence by seeing this occur over and over again. |
| 189 | 00:32:21,300 --> 00:32:30,720 | But back to our analysis over here. Understanding that initially, price will open up and we'll say that the lowest portion of this of this box is going to be |
| 190 | 00:32:30,780 --> 00:32:41,040 | representing the opening price at the vertical line delineating Midnight in New York. Okay, price will open and then whatever it does above the opening, that's |
| 191 | 00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:50,160 | what's important to us. That's where the signal takes place. The sell signal will occur above the opening price. So anything at the opening price or above |
| 192 | 00:32:50,310 --> 00:32:59,160 | that is our selling killing ground. Okay, the killing ground is above the opening price. We want to see that initial little move up above the opening |
| 193 | 00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:07,710 | price. Now why is that important? Mark because my mentor Larry Williams said he wishes he understood how people could sell up in that upper portion of daily |
| 194 | 00:33:07,710 --> 00:33:15,750 | range and then capture the big move going lower. Well, if he says he couldn't do it, I took that as more or less a challenge that hey, if he can't do it, I'm |
| 195 | 00:33:15,750 --> 00:33:26,760 | gonna see if I can. And I've spent the last 20 years trying to master if you will, that very thing and I have done very well in terms of getting very close |
| 196 | 00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:37,080 | to deciphering it. I haven't quite figured it all out yet. But I what I figured out enough, okay is to make a really wicked living. It's crazy how much money is |
| 197 | 00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:44,490 | available, but in here in the red portion, the box, okay, this is going to equate where the sell signal occurs and we'll talk more about that in a minute. |
| 198 | 00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:53,550 | But your idea is you want to be selling on a down day or anticipatory selling selling scenario. Okay, you want to be getting in here and trying to find a sell |
| 199 | 00:33:53,550 --> 00:34:04,740 | signal. Okay, and once you get in it, you want to anticipate the daily range expanding now it'll go up and down intraday, but as we make a lower low, that's |
| 200 | 00:34:04,740 --> 00:34:13,170 | the daily low intraday, and as it retraces it'll maintains blow through that new low. And as it retraces again, it'll blow down lower low, and eventually what |
| 201 | 00:34:13,170 --> 00:34:23,160 | will happen is, is around London close, okay, which is again, we're gonna reference New York time, from 10 o'clock in the morning to noon. Okay, New York |
| 202 | 00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:34,320 | time, that's typically what I classify as, like the London close timeframe. So the, if we're in a down day, the low of the day will form between 10am and |
| 203 | 00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:45,810 | 11am 70% of the time, but it can go as late as noon sometimes. And unless there's a FOMC announcement or something like that. Those types of events will |
| 204 | 00:34:45,810 --> 00:34:54,300 | cause it to go as late as 1800 GMT, or two o'clock in the afternoon, New York time. Okay, so there's your parameters in terms of time, but what you're looking |
| 205 | 00:34:54,300 --> 00:35:03,450 | for is you want to see that largest degree of time to permit the daily rains to unfold Now let's take a look at what that looks like in on this daily range |
| 206 | 00:35:03,450 --> 00:35:14,370 | here. Obviously, we have the optimal trade entry in here to sell signals right up here. And I'm going to bracket out with this little box here. When price |
| 207 | 00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:15,030 | entered |
| 208 | 00:35:16,829 --> 00:35:29,129 | the sell zone, okay? For the optimal trade entry, okay? And what I'm doing is I'm mapping out this box, this crude depiction of our daily range here in a |
| 209 | 00:35:29,129 --> 00:35:39,809 | second to not get the colors matching like it should. Okay, right up in here. This little area here is this point right here on our idea, graphically, what a |
| 210 | 00:35:39,809 --> 00:35:50,789 | down day looks like on a daily range, okay, this is that right there, okay, this Maroon portion, or the rains expansion or profit release portion of the down |
| 211 | 00:35:50,789 --> 00:36:02,969 | day, where the largest lion's share of the move occurs, okay? That will occur from the entry point to happens in London open to as late as 1800 GMT and four |
| 212 | 00:36:02,969 --> 00:36:13,169 | FOMC days, okay, or two o'clock in the afternoon, New York time, okay. Ideally, the opposite end of the range, or in this case, the low The day will form |
| 213 | 00:36:13,169 --> 00:36:25,769 | between 10 o'clock, and 11 o'clock in the morning, New York time, which translates to 1500 GMT to 1600 GMT. Okay. But again, you gotta allow some a |
| 214 | 00:36:25,769 --> 00:36:35,369 | little bit of fudge factor for it may monkey around till noon, but generally, I think you'll see that if you, if you put the reference points of 1500 to 1600 |
| 215 | 00:36:35,369 --> 00:36:43,139 | GMT, or basically 10 o'clock in the morning to 11 o'clock in the morning, New York time, that will be the opposite. And that a range of the daily range. In |
| 216 | 00:36:43,139 --> 00:36:53,699 | other words, if the low, I'm sorry, if the highs made in London open, the low of the day, will form between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock in the morning. Okay, New |
| 217 | 00:36:53,699 --> 00:37:02,069 | York time. And that's pretty much how the daily ranges unfold. So the market makers are actually doing their work and bracketing and capping the market high |
| 218 | 00:37:02,069 --> 00:37:10,439 | and low at those specific times of the day. And generally volume really increases in ensures the highest point here and falls off in the latter portion |
| 219 | 00:37:10,469 --> 00:37:26,159 | of London close in that is usually what typically drives the internals behind why this does occur. So market trades down makes a low right here. This is the |
| 220 | 00:37:26,159 --> 00:37:33,839 | low of the day, and this is an ugly, intraday price action, but still, nonetheless, it'll it'll help us as it relates to understanding what price |
| 221 | 00:37:33,869 --> 00:37:46,049 | should do and shouldn't do. The big portion of this graphic depiction of a daily range, okay, we have the opening to dilly dally around the opening price for a |
| 222 | 00:37:46,049 --> 00:37:56,129 | little while then rallies up, that's what we're looking for. That's the Judas swing. Okay. That's the open rally decline scenario we like to look for Okay, |
| 223 | 00:37:56,159 --> 00:38:04,409 | all right, we're making the higher day first. Now, again, I'm not going to argue that we didn't have a higher high back here. But I'm referencing New York |
| 224 | 00:38:04,439 --> 00:38:12,359 | midnight time as the beginning of my new trading day. Please don't get in arguments with me. That's not the trading days beginning I don't care what your |
| 225 | 00:38:12,359 --> 00:38:20,549 | opinion is, again, Amit, it'd be rude, okay, but you're watching my videos. I'm not, I'm not subscribing to your views. I make a living doing this, and a lot of |
| 226 | 00:38:20,549 --> 00:38:29,249 | it. So it's important that you understand that how I'm interpreting price, okay, that's, that's the whole reason why we're doing this, okay. It's not for me to |
| 227 | 00:38:29,399 --> 00:38:39,059 | learn from anyone else. I'm, I've arrived at what I understand in markets. So I'm comfortable with that. I'm not forcing my views. I'm not forcing you to do |
| 228 | 00:38:39,059 --> 00:38:49,469 | this only. It's just up to your interpretation of whether or not it's valid or not, okay. And I, I challenge you to, to put it to its test, you'll see, while |
| 229 | 00:38:49,469 --> 00:38:56,519 | it's not 100%. And nothing ever is, this will give you exactly what you're looking for. And that's the reason why I open up these videos. With that |
| 230 | 00:38:56,519 --> 00:39:07,349 | statement. I know exactly what you're looking for. It's what every trader is looking for. But no one is willing to, you know, basically withdraw from their |
| 231 | 00:39:07,439 --> 00:39:16,139 | treasured views and ideas and their techniques and their applications of indicators. If you just put that aside for a moment, okay, and it's I know it's |
| 232 | 00:39:16,139 --> 00:39:24,359 | difficult because you're passionate about what you already have believed you understood about the market, okay? When you remove all that stuff, okay, and I'm |
| 233 | 00:39:24,359 --> 00:39:34,409 | being nice by saying stuff get to the core root of why price moves like it does and when it does, okay and who's doing the movement, okay, then it becomes a |
| 234 | 00:39:34,409 --> 00:39:44,249 | suddenly you know, much easier environment to work within. Okay, so let's get back to this example here and opening up in here to the price above the movement |
| 235 | 00:39:44,249 --> 00:39:52,499 | above the opening price at midnight. Okay, that's the classical London open ICT sell scenario. Okay, we are expecting a bounce. |
| 236 | 00:39:54,030 --> 00:40:04,440 | Based on this level up here we broke through resistance broken later turned support. This was noted When the price ran through here, live, not this day, not |
| 237 | 00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:14,100 | this day. Not this day, not now. Okay? This was all on the chart in a live session with witnesses that I expected this environment to unfold. Okay. So |
| 238 | 00:40:14,100 --> 00:40:21,990 | again, understanding risk on risk off, this would be a risk off scenario if we anticipate a bounce at that level. Going back to our cable, we're looking for |
| 239 | 00:40:21,990 --> 00:40:30,570 | sell scenarios. Okay. So now, what does that look like? Well, it's going to be a down date in a move that is going lower. If you look at daily charts, okay. |
| 240 | 00:40:30,810 --> 00:40:47,070 | daily charts will show this. Let's pull up a virgin chart here on a cable. And we'll just do a daily with the open high, low, close. And I know this is |
| 241 | 00:40:47,070 --> 00:40:58,500 | probably alien to most of you, you're all been indoctrinated to the world of candlesticks, but yeah, it is what it is, I guess. It's good to a daily chart. |
| 242 | 00:41:05,220 --> 00:41:18,990 | Okay, and this is Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday, Sunday, Friday. This is that environment that I was just describing. Go here and zoom out. And we are this |
| 243 | 00:41:18,990 --> 00:41:26,340 | opening scene, a little bit of a movement above. Okay, the reason why it's showing just very little movement above the opening is because this opening |
| 244 | 00:41:26,340 --> 00:41:36,660 | price is referencing the opening price at zero GMT. Okay. But the the overall pattern, okay, what I was describing in my graphic depiction is this really, |
| 245 | 00:41:36,870 --> 00:41:49,920 | okay, you see the opening, trades up? This up move occurs many, many times from the the reference point of Midnight in New York. If you look at the rally from |
| 246 | 00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:59,190 | that point on, that's where this occurs. can it happen in Asia like it does here? Sure. Okay, but it doesn't change the fact you still can find the moves. |
| 247 | 00:41:59,310 --> 00:42:06,840 | Okay, in the midnight timeframe, looking for that Judas swing. Now I'm gonna talk more about that Judas swing in a moment. But this is the phenomenon that we |
| 248 | 00:42:06,870 --> 00:42:13,980 | are expected to say this open. Now this is not the day obviously. But I'm showing you what it looks like just like it is here. We see the opening the move |
| 249 | 00:42:14,010 --> 00:42:27,900 | up. really look at what's going on here. Okay, this is daily chart. These bars represent the full daily ranges for each trading day for the cable. Look at |
| 250 | 00:42:27,900 --> 00:42:36,390 | what's been going on for the entire time this thing's been going lower. How many days does it do this phenomenon? Watch, I gave you guys an example or study and |
| 251 | 00:42:36,390 --> 00:42:43,320 | it came and I'm actually incorporating it in here in this description of the things that I've done over the last four years. So I'm going to answer the |
| 252 | 00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:52,890 | drills that I gave you now. I told everyone study price in the whole month of June was on holiday and I want you to do these types of things now I'm going to |
| 253 | 00:42:52,890 --> 00:43:01,200 | reference June in a moment but for right now let's look at look at what's going on for the cable in this pro long down move Let's count the days that we had an |
| 254 | 00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:11,880 | open rally and in a down day close Okay, in other words, it will have an open a high and then a lower close. Okay, watch. We have one here even though we're a |
| 255 | 00:43:11,880 --> 00:43:22,950 | little bit off the opening it still gave me an opportunity to make money on a down move intraday. Here's a second one down close. Third, Sunday, who cares |
| 256 | 00:43:22,950 --> 00:43:35,310 | didn't do anything. Monday, open rail rally down close, open, rally went close, lower, but we had intraday range below the opening. Open, rally, down close. |
| 257 | 00:43:35,610 --> 00:43:48,450 | Open, rally down close, open, rally down close. Sunday. unchanged. Open, rally down close, open, rally down close, open, rally down close. Open rally down |
| 258 | 00:43:48,450 --> 00:44:01,920 | close. You see that. Now listen to me guys. Okay. I don't care who you subscribe to. I don't care which author you read the most and have the most adoration for |
| 259 | 00:44:01,950 --> 00:44:12,990 | okay. I'm going to tell you something right now. If this information is generic, and as simple as I just explained, does not knock your socks off. You haven't |
| 260 | 00:44:12,990 --> 00:44:23,100 | been paying attention. Everyone wants to make money. Everyone wants to find trades. Everyone wants to know what the directional premises. This just answered |
| 261 | 00:44:23,100 --> 00:44:32,490 | all those things for you. How many trading opportunities was this just in the last month? Think about it in the last month. How many trading opportunities? |
| 262 | 00:44:32,820 --> 00:44:43,830 | Tons? Absolute tons. If you were trading with even with the wrong bias back here, say you were trying to sell every single day in here. Okay. And say you |
| 263 | 00:44:43,830 --> 00:44:53,340 | were you know, your absher captured down moves. Okay. The days that had an opening and rally. Okay, maybe you lost on this day. Who cares? What about this |
| 264 | 00:44:53,340 --> 00:45:00,930 | one here? Maybe you didn't do anything there. You made something here. How about this day, you probably would have lost money. Hello, this one, you probably |
| 265 | 00:45:00,930 --> 00:45:09,720 | would have lost money. What about this one? You made money? What about this one, you made money. So you had two losses, two wins. It shouldn't bother |
| 266 | 00:45:09,720 --> 00:45:16,410 | you that you're going to have a losing day that you're going to be wrong, because I'm gonna tell you right now, write this down in your notes. Inner |
| 267 | 00:45:16,410 --> 00:45:26,610 | Circle trader, Michael, Joe Huddleston promises you guaranteed you that you're losing money using this stuff that I'm teaching, you're losing money, I'm |
| 268 | 00:45:26,610 --> 00:45:35,610 | telling you upfront, you're going to lose money. Now, if you listen to me, the losses that you incur are going to be very manageable, and they're not going to |
| 269 | 00:45:35,610 --> 00:45:46,800 | take you out of the game. And also on that same coin, flip it over when you listen, and the trades pan out the level of money that you make, okay, or is |
| 270 | 00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:57,510 | available, I should say, let's rephrase that. If you follow all the rules, the ideas will more than adequate, erase the losing trades and show you a net gain, |
| 271 | 00:45:57,630 --> 00:46:05,700 | how much of a net gain is going to be dependent upon the level trader, the experience and the risk that you're willing to assume, keeping risk limited, |
| 272 | 00:46:05,820 --> 00:46:13,950 | obviously, as a new trader, if you're just now getting into this stuff with me as in terms of my methods, okay, or even training in it all, you should be |
| 273 | 00:46:13,950 --> 00:46:24,990 | trading about one quarter of 1% risk, even in a demo account. I know that's not sexy, but it's not now it's not about making money right now. It's about |
| 274 | 00:46:24,990 --> 00:46:32,940 | understanding what you're doing. Think about it, say you want to be an auto mechanic. Okay, you sign up for your schooling, you want to get in and they give |
| 275 | 00:46:32,940 --> 00:46:41,880 | you a textbook, I think a lot you go out there and take apart a monster ATI, just you know, to see if you could do it, they're not gonna let you do that. |
| 276 | 00:46:42,060 --> 00:46:50,790 | Okay, you got to understand theory. And that's where you're at as a new trader. Some of you guys have been following me since 2010. And you still should be in |
| 277 | 00:46:50,790 --> 00:46:57,630 | theory, because a lot of you guys rushed into trading live. Okay. And then you're sending me emails saying, really not understanding what's going on? And |
| 278 | 00:46:57,630 --> 00:47:04,140 | but then you'll send me one or two emails over the course of three months. And I think I got it again, know what you did, what did you just happen to have the |
| 279 | 00:47:04,140 --> 00:47:13,590 | right move that day, and but you haven't been applying the tools because there's a plethora of multiple setups that happen throughout the week. And if you just |
| 280 | 00:47:13,590 --> 00:47:21,480 | focus on one trading pair, you'll be able to learn these concepts. And once you understand it, you can apply to every, every one of the pairs if you want to be |
| 281 | 00:47:21,480 --> 00:47:30,390 | that crazy about it. But understanding that if we're in an environment that is most likely going to be going higher or lower over a long period of time. Now, |
| 282 | 00:47:30,450 --> 00:47:37,770 | why am I discussing this down move here? And why is that important? Well think about it, if this was going down, what should the dollar been doing at the same |
| 283 | 00:47:37,770 --> 00:47:50,520 | time? rallying, you see that. So that's how you get institutional sponsorship behind the trades that you're taking. If you see a risk off scenario, which |
| 284 | 00:47:50,550 --> 00:48:02,310 | again, that is dollar rallying dollar base rally is going to see a decline in the British pound, okay, the British Pound is gonna be falling against the |
| 285 | 00:48:02,310 --> 00:48:12,570 | dollar. What you're looking for is the opening, rally up selling to that and expect the down move to occur and have a lower close, you want to see range |
| 286 | 00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:21,870 | expansion. Okay, range expansion is this thing here. When you have the daily range, we have the opening price here, trades up, as we see here. So really, I |
| 287 | 00:48:21,870 --> 00:48:32,130 | guess we should be really just saying this. The opening price is right there. Okay. So this little box in here, that's represented right here. If this is the |
| 288 | 00:48:32,130 --> 00:48:42,540 | daily range that we see on this example, like say this, right here, this is the daily range itself. Okay, graphically depicted over here, the opening, the |
| 289 | 00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:50,940 | initial move up from the opening price, which is here, look how much opportunity you had to find sell scenarios just above the opening price, just selling it, |
| 290 | 00:48:51,150 --> 00:49:02,730 | okay? If you're worried about being stopped out, if you're afraid that you're going to be stopped out and you're going to lose money, okay, you need to stop |
| 291 | 00:49:02,730 --> 00:49:10,410 | that. throw that out right now. There's no I'm gonna take, I'm gonna take away every excuse in the book for you right now. Okay, are you ready? Nod your head. |
| 292 | 00:49:10,740 --> 00:49:24,000 | I'm ready, Michael, I'm ready. Okay. What's you're gonna do is you're gonna look at an example of time and price as it relates to stop loss placement. Okay, now |
| 293 | 00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:30,510 | assume we have this idea that we think price is going to trade up to this point here, because we already identified a range. Okay, we understand the time of |
| 294 | 00:49:30,510 --> 00:49:39,390 | day, we understand that we're above the opening price. Okay, we want to sell in here. So where should our stop being? Well, it should be above this high. That's |
| 295 | 00:49:39,390 --> 00:49:43,650 | what our textbooks teach us. Right? Okay, great. That's fine. But now let's talk about |
| 296 | 00:49:46,199 --> 00:49:55,289 | why I always talk about using a standard 30 PIP stop loss. Now I know you're thinking, Wait a minute, I don't want to lose. I don't want to use a 30 PIP stop |
| 297 | 00:49:55,289 --> 00:50:02,519 | loss. That doesn't sound like it's gonna work out. Well. You know, it's gonna be a big loss. Well, it would be if you had A lot of money in terms of your risk |
| 298 | 00:50:02,519 --> 00:50:11,279 | exposure over 30 pips. But what I want you to look over here when I put this little thing, this little cursor here, notice there's little numbers right now |
| 299 | 00:50:11,279 --> 00:50:29,639 | says 32 now says 2441 Okay, I'm what I'm doing is I'm putting a range of 30 See that? That's 30 pips right there. Now that rectangle is graphically depicting |
| 300 | 00:50:29,669 --> 00:50:41,369 | where 30 pips range is, in deference to wherever I want to place it on the chart, if this is where we're entering in London open at 815 GMT, or eight, GMT, |
| 301 | 00:50:41,639 --> 00:50:56,189 | which is basically 2am I'm sorry, 3am 3am, New York time, if you take that entry point, and we're going to use the 62% line right there. What I'm doing, I'm |
| 302 | 00:50:56,189 --> 00:51:05,999 | taking that range of that, that 30 pips on this rectangle, I'm putting it right on that level right here at 62. And I'm adding 30 pips to it right up here, |
| 303 | 00:51:06,029 --> 00:51:18,659 | that's where your stop loss is. As you're learning, this is what you're going to do, you're going to place your stop loss order. Right there at 169 12, your |
| 304 | 00:51:18,659 --> 00:51:33,749 | entry price is at 168 85. No, no, it's not. I mean, get that I mean, make sure I'm saying this, right. Okay, right here, you have 160 82 and 30 pips away is |
| 305 | 00:51:33,749 --> 00:51:45,479 | 169 12. Okay, so you have this much in terms of space between where you're entering and where your stop loss is going to be. Now. What does that mean? |
| 306 | 00:51:46,559 --> 00:51:59,939 | Well, whatever you sell here, okay, if price was to take you out, and by trading up to that level here, okay, and really, that only has to happen by trading at |
| 307 | 00:51:59,939 --> 00:52:12,269 | 160 909 would take you essentially most like in most in most platforms that will take you out for traded to that point, because you got a factor to spread. So |
| 308 | 00:52:13,259 --> 00:52:22,889 | you're probably really in even though you're looking at 30 pips, the market maintenance will take you out to 27 so why do I use 30 pips 30 pips? I want you |
| 309 | 00:52:22,889 --> 00:52:35,579 | to do a study. Okay, I want you to look at days that create the down moves, okay in London and makes the high. Take 30 pips and add it to the high of the highest |
| 310 | 00:52:35,579 --> 00:52:44,699 | high during two o'clock in the morning and four o'clock in the morning, New York time. Okay, whatever the highest high was, put it on the highest high there and |
| 311 | 00:52:44,699 --> 00:52:54,779 | add 30 pips to that. Okay, and I want you to count how many days that 30 pips gets taken out, or what would be stopped out. Okay, and why am I saying 30 pips? |
| 312 | 00:52:55,199 --> 00:53:10,499 | Well, if we were to be very generous and say that the average daily range for our currency pair is 100 pips. Okay, if it's 100 pips, how much of 100 pips is |
| 313 | 00:53:10,499 --> 00:53:19,919 | 30 roughly a third. Okay. My, the idea behind this, okay, and it's really nothing that I can attribute to any other author because if it was, I would just |
| 314 | 00:53:19,919 --> 00:53:29,489 | simply take you to their work and say, okay, read this and you'll understand it. If this is 30 pips, it's not okay. But let's assume for a moment that this is |
| 315 | 00:53:29,489 --> 00:53:35,189 | the daily range of 100 pips in three stages. Let me just do this. |
| 316 | 00:53:42,360 --> 00:53:54,780 | So if this whole larger rectangle, if you will, it represents a daily range of 100 pips, okay? If we're trying to sell it, and we sell at anywhere up in the |
| 317 | 00:53:54,780 --> 00:54:03,840 | upper portion of the range, okay, we're trying to capture this type of event a move up from open and down and capture some profits, if we're looking to sell up |
| 318 | 00:54:03,840 --> 00:54:15,720 | in the upper third of the range, okay? If we're already in the ideal location of a down day, what's the likelihood of it move in 30 pips from that point and then |
| 319 | 00:54:15,720 --> 00:54:27,840 | making it lower low and a lower close, unless it's economically driven by a report or a market moving event? Okay, like FOMC or non farm payroll. Those are |
| 320 | 00:54:27,840 --> 00:54:35,850 | the two reasons why I do not trade those days because that's when it can very easily blow through 30 pips and clean out both directions in the marketplace and |
| 321 | 00:54:35,850 --> 00:54:43,290 | go back to the center of the ranch where the daily range and go nowhere and basically, no one makes money that day by doing that, unless you're ultra short |
| 322 | 00:54:43,290 --> 00:54:51,690 | term scalper and you fade that move. And I don't like to do it because it's a carnival ride. So FOMC is a joke. Don't play it. Don't write, don't trade it |
| 323 | 00:54:51,720 --> 00:54:57,930 | Don't be in front of it. And non farm payroll, there's absolutely no reason why you should be in there doing it unless you want to play in a demo account and |
| 324 | 00:54:57,930 --> 00:55:08,400 | just you know, play in a sandbox. But what's the purpose of doing that you can do real trading, you know, 2019 more days, if you will, the rest of the month |
| 325 | 00:55:08,430 --> 00:55:17,160 | and actually have days that are absolutely in favor of volatility that is indicative of, you know, price action that we can trade with. So again, that's |
| 326 | 00:55:17,160 --> 00:55:28,080 | the reason why we like to use a 30 pips. Now over time, over time, you will learn to be able to trim that 30 PIP stop loss down. I'm not going to tell you |
| 327 | 00:55:28,410 --> 00:55:38,640 | that you should get down to 10 pips, or that you should get down to 15 pips, okay, you can make a career leaving it at 30. But what do you do when you have |
| 328 | 00:55:38,640 --> 00:55:47,610 | your entry point, and you know, where your stop loss is gonna be 30 pips away, this should be no more than one quarter of 1%. Think about what I just told you. |
| 329 | 00:55:48,390 --> 00:56:01,320 | One quarter of 1%. If you're just now starting, that's the level of risk. Now, why am I telling you that even in a demo account, because if you lose money or |
| 330 | 00:56:01,320 --> 00:56:15,420 | make money in a demo account, it by default it strategically plans, okay, you're thinking, to think about money. And I'm teaching you to think about the risk. |
| 331 | 00:56:16,020 --> 00:56:29,370 | Everything that I'm sharing with you will by default, put money in your account. It will also require you to stick to a low risk, high probability scenario. This |
| 332 | 00:56:29,370 --> 00:56:41,100 | is one of those events. They happen a couple times a week, every single week. The problem is, are you going to be there when price does what it does? Think |
| 333 | 00:56:41,100 --> 00:56:51,000 | about, there are several opportunities in the week that really set up very favorable trading opportunities. They're not scalps, their intraday day trades. |
| 334 | 00:56:51,390 --> 00:57:01,560 | People that have jobs can still do these types of trades. But it will require you to wake up at midnight, New York time, take a glance at where we're at, look |
| 335 | 00:57:01,560 --> 00:57:12,960 | at whatever previous ranges, okay? And then you're going to basically use that as a, as a basis to determine where your trade setups going to be. Ideally, I |
| 336 | 00:57:12,960 --> 00:57:26,010 | think London, if you're going to trade it, you know, you need to be awake in front of the charts, okay, but if you are really gung ho about what you're |
| 337 | 00:57:26,010 --> 00:57:37,080 | seeing on the charts at midnight, okay, you can use the previous range here, or if you're watching price, what I like to do is I like to see an intraday high |
| 338 | 00:57:37,110 --> 00:57:43,230 | getting taken out where like we have here, this is the high in here, if you draw out a little line, let's do that. |
| 339 | 00:57:49,289 --> 00:57:58,679 | Craig, I dragged around one, that still elbow, it'll work. This is the high, okay, and anything above it would be a turtle suit, or stop raid, okay. And by |
| 340 | 00:57:58,679 --> 00:58:05,579 | having that idea, that would be another pattern you can use if you're not an optimal trade entry fan. Okay. The other pattern I like to use a lot is the |
| 341 | 00:58:05,579 --> 00:58:13,799 | turtle suit, which is a false breakout. Okay. And many times, that's really classic London open set setups. It's just one of these previous intraday highs. |
| 342 | 00:58:14,189 --> 00:58:22,559 | And there it is, you know, that's what you sell into. But without having the context of understanding that you're in an environment that you're expecting |
| 343 | 00:58:22,589 --> 00:58:31,769 | down moves on a macro level, okay, you're not going to understand how to zero in on these very, very, very small little time frames and segments of the daily |
| 344 | 00:58:31,769 --> 00:58:45,209 | range to ferret out these opportunities. We already told you what time of day these things occur. I'm going to give you let's see, what what can I show you |
| 345 | 00:58:45,209 --> 00:58:47,999 | here? What was I going to do here? Let's do this. |
| 346 | 00:58:53,400 --> 00:59:10,140 | Okay, yeah. Let's zoom in. And it's good to that same day. And where are we at? Last night. off my spotter you guys. |
| 347 | 00:59:24,150 --> 00:59:24,930 | August 1. |
| 348 | 00:59:33,000 --> 00:59:42,330 | Okay, August 1. Okay, so we talked about the London open kill zone. And this indicator, which I'll be sharing with you guys. I'll send you a link through |
| 349 | 00:59:42,330 --> 00:59:54,360 | Twitter, where you actually go and download these from my website at the inner circle trader calm. The blue line in here. This is viewed as bracketing out if |
| 350 | 00:59:54,360 --> 01:00:05,130 | you will. And I like this form I used to be. I used to draw it on my charts you then All the time doing it in my videos, but I liked the idea of having it very |
| 351 | 01:00:05,130 --> 01:00:13,320 | clean at the bottom because I understand the window of opportunity. And I really want you guys to think that way and keep your charts clean at the beginning of |
| 352 | 01:00:13,530 --> 01:00:23,430 | that line, which is right here. Okay, and the end of the line. And again, we're talking about this little blue little section of time, this whole pocket of time |
| 353 | 01:00:23,430 --> 01:00:41,100 | of day is the ICT London open kill zone. Okay. It can extend to 10 GMT, which is basically 5am New York time, and it can start as early as 1am New York time or |
| 354 | 01:00:41,100 --> 01:00:52,140 | six GMT, okay. But by far and large between seven GMT and nine GMT, or two o'clock and four o'clock in the morning, that's usually when the higher load day |
| 355 | 01:00:52,140 --> 01:01:02,130 | forms. Now, what does that mean? Well, if we have already IRA arrived at the idea that the dollar during this time has been in our an already established up |
| 356 | 01:01:02,130 --> 01:01:12,090 | move, and we come down to a level we're anticipating support, we expect a bounce in the dollar, even if it's short lived. It gives us a prognostication of future |
| 357 | 01:01:12,090 --> 01:01:22,500 | price action in the cable. And you see that happening here with lower prices. Okay, extending lower going back to our intraday This is that, that move up? |
| 358 | 01:01:22,860 --> 01:01:32,790 | Okay, that occurred. But look, it's happening this this blue area here, it just helps us identify when of when these moves are going to occur. So we understand |
| 359 | 01:01:32,790 --> 01:01:46,380 | time of day, we understand the rains expansion theory that the daily range will move down, and the daily bar will become larger throughout the day. But the |
| 360 | 01:01:46,380 --> 01:01:59,700 | beginning of the move on a down day occurs at London open at a pre determined measurable move with retracements. At the beginning of a time of day session, |
| 361 | 01:01:59,880 --> 01:02:09,510 | this is the ICT kill zone. unique to me between two o'clock and four o'clock in the morning. That's going to be your time window where the setups occur. So what |
| 362 | 01:02:09,510 --> 01:02:19,140 | am I teaching you here? I'm telling you how to find the news. I'm telling you how to pick the direction of the day. I'm telling you how to anticipate the |
| 363 | 01:02:19,140 --> 01:02:30,930 | setups to occur. Both my patterns that I trade are always overlapping. Okay. The optimal trade entry which is retracement driven, right here. turtle soup. That's |
| 364 | 01:02:30,960 --> 01:02:40,950 | short term high rally through. It's a false breakout. Boom. That's what you want to sell into. Okay, when during the London open session, how long you hold it |
| 365 | 01:02:41,250 --> 01:02:52,260 | until London close. Later in the day, you want to see range expansion going lower, it really expands and drops off precipitously here. I've told you how to |
| 366 | 01:02:52,260 --> 01:03:01,050 | place your stop loss use a 30. Pip stop loss. Why? Because the chances of it opening at New York's midnight timeframe. Okay, or even the beginning of the new |
| 367 | 01:03:01,050 --> 01:03:11,700 | day over here and moving 30 pips up and then moving down. Doesn't happen. It can happen sure can. But it's so unlikely, okay, there's no reason for you to be |
| 368 | 01:03:11,700 --> 01:03:21,480 | afraid to trade none. If you're afraid, it's because you're trading too much money. And you know, if you really ask yourself, honestly, if you lost on that |
| 369 | 01:03:21,480 --> 01:03:31,020 | trade, would it hurt you? Yes, it would hurt you. Because you've got too much leverage on it. If you start off with very, very, very ultra low risk point, |
| 370 | 01:03:31,200 --> 01:03:41,790 | two, five of 1%. Okay, in other words, one quarter of 1% you're not worrying about money when it's like that. Okay? Because it's so minute, it isn't going to |
| 371 | 01:03:41,790 --> 01:03:48,390 | hurt you. It's not you could take 100 losses in a row with that and you're not out of the game. Okay? You're not even you're Newton, you're nowhere near her. |
| 372 | 01:03:48,450 --> 01:04:00,300 | Okay, you could still come back from that. Absolutely. Okay. So, think about I'm telling you to trade in a demo account setting for six months, six months. Why? |
| 373 | 01:04:00,510 --> 01:04:07,500 | Because it's gonna take you that long to really trust what it is that you should be doing. Now, if you're in a fast track view of things you got to have do it |
| 374 | 01:04:07,500 --> 01:04:16,350 | because you got to get to your job and you got to, you got to make life changes that have to happen shorter than that. Do not send me emails, saying that your |
| 375 | 01:04:16,350 --> 01:04:24,390 | stuff doesn't work because I couldn't quit my job in six weeks. Okay? I'm telling you, it ain't gonna work like that. Okay, I'm telling you, if you do not |
| 376 | 01:04:24,390 --> 01:04:30,510 | invest six months of your time, your hard earned free time |
| 377 | 01:04:31,860 --> 01:04:45,000 | to doing this stuff. You don't watch my material. Find something else. Because I'm telling you, my work requires just that work. And I've condensed two decades |
| 378 | 01:04:45,000 --> 01:04:55,590 | worth of in insights and experience down to what I think and I mean this wholeheartedly. There isn't anything out there better than what I'm sharing. Not |
| 379 | 01:04:55,590 --> 01:05:06,360 | one thing. Not one mentor, not a collaboration of mentors. And I mean that with every sincere fiber of my being. And it's not to be braggadocious or arrogant, |
| 380 | 01:05:06,390 --> 01:05:13,350 | you can call me that. But I'm telling you on the best thing going today, and the materials I'm giving you cost you nothing but the time sitting in front of the |
| 381 | 01:05:13,350 --> 01:05:20,520 | computer. Now, granted, it may be a whole lot of time between the videos. But I've already promised you that in the beginning did not, it's going to take a |
| 382 | 01:05:20,520 --> 01:05:28,680 | lot of patience. And it's going to be expensive in reference to time. Because I have to force you to do this over a long period of time. Otherwise, you're not |
| 383 | 01:05:28,680 --> 01:05:36,480 | going to glean what it is that you need to glean. Because you don't know what you need to know. You don't have any idea what it is that you need to know. But |
| 384 | 01:05:36,480 --> 01:05:43,740 | it's gonna be me taking you to the chart, looking at specific things over and over and over again, then you'll start saying, Well, yeah, now I see it. Of |
| 385 | 01:05:43,740 --> 01:05:50,820 | course you did. Because you've been doing it. And you've been desensitized to the fear aspect of trading, losing money and being wrong, because that's really |
| 386 | 01:05:50,820 --> 01:06:02,310 | all it is. That's it think about what are you afraid of being wrong? or losing money, both goes hand in hand, okay. But those are the two primary fears. That's |
| 387 | 01:06:02,310 --> 01:06:10,200 | it. We can accept missing moves, we're not really afraid of missing moves. Okay. We're disappointed if we miss a move, okay. But we're fearful of losing money |
| 388 | 01:06:10,200 --> 01:06:18,030 | and being wrong. There are two primary pillars of fear as it relates to speculation. There's other pillars, obviously, ego, and that's the folks that |
| 389 | 01:06:18,090 --> 01:06:26,040 | spend a lot of times in forums and they share their insights with other people think that they're smart, and try to be better than the next guy. Okay? Don't be |
| 390 | 01:06:26,040 --> 01:06:31,680 | informed if you're a developing trader, unless you're in you're just reading from someone that has a lot more experience than you. Okay, and you're giving |
| 391 | 01:06:31,680 --> 01:06:41,550 | worthwhile investment advice. Okay, that obviously, then, yeah, read forums, okay. But you should not be in there trying to teach other people when you don't |
| 392 | 01:06:41,550 --> 01:06:49,050 | know what you're doing, either. If you're developing, don't try to teach it, anybody, because you're really doing a lot more harm than you're helping. And |
| 393 | 01:06:49,260 --> 01:06:59,580 | I'm encouraged by seeing individuals try to do that. But if you aren't, if you're not making a living at this, don't teach it. Okay? Because you're still |
| 394 | 01:06:59,580 --> 01:07:07,710 | developing, and there's gonna be a whole lot of lessons. And my greatest learning happened in the last eight years of my career. Now put that in |
| 395 | 01:07:07,740 --> 01:07:16,230 | perspective, you guys want to start trading and quit your job in four weeks, okay. And I've been doing this for two decades. And my best understanding and |
| 396 | 01:07:16,230 --> 01:07:18,750 | learning happened in the latter part of my career. |
| 397 | 01:07:20,219 --> 01:07:30,899 | Think about that. I wish I knew now, when I first started, I wish I knew this stuff. I wish I knew this, because it would have been a whole lot more different |
| 398 | 01:07:30,899 --> 01:07:41,279 | in terms of my development and the pain I did, and, you know, basically go through, and it was self inflicted. And I'm hoping you guys learn from that. And |
| 399 | 01:07:41,279 --> 01:07:51,809 | I keep bringing it up. Because I want you understand that I'm a real person that went through real problems with this stuff. Real medical problems, me It hurt me |
| 400 | 01:07:51,809 --> 01:08:00,809 | physically, to the point where I still can't eat comfortably. My have a difficulty swallowing foods, it will work you if you let it it'll make you think |
| 401 | 01:08:00,809 --> 01:08:08,039 | you're bigger than you really are. It'll make you think you're smarter than you really are. And it also make you feel much less of a person than you really are. |
| 402 | 01:08:08,609 --> 01:08:17,279 | There's a lot of influence that we allow these marketplaces to have over us as a human being. But it's all manageable. It's all controllable, you have control |
| 403 | 01:08:17,279 --> 01:08:27,749 | over it. There's nothing forcing you to put that trade on with 5% risk. There's nothing forcing you to sit there and say, I'll pass on that trade, except for |
| 404 | 01:08:27,749 --> 01:08:37,619 | common sense. You're in the driver's seat. I don't want credit for your winning trades. And I certainly don't want credit for your losing trades. This whole |
| 405 | 01:08:37,619 --> 01:08:46,949 | thing is about what you do at the end of this development. That's what I'm interested in. I want to see what you do with this information. Once you become |
| 406 | 01:08:46,949 --> 01:08:54,809 | successful with it. How are you going to help other people with it, because that's really, that's what I'm doing. I'm helping you for free. I'm not, I'm not |
| 407 | 01:08:54,809 --> 01:09:02,099 | asking for anything except for share your store with me. I want to know what you're doing with it. I'm not going to have some upsell later on 20 $500 |
| 408 | 01:09:02,099 --> 01:09:09,419 | workshops come out here and I'm going to be I'm gonna help you help you even further I've taken that money and and put in some hooky software program |
| 409 | 01:09:09,419 --> 01:09:16,259 | together to help you find trade patterns. Okay? You don't need all that stuff. You don't need any of that. Okay? If you're looking for software programs to |
| 410 | 01:09:16,259 --> 01:09:28,109 | find trades for you, you're lazy. You're friggin lazy, and lazy doesn't pay. Get that in your notes, okay? doesn't pay. I tried that. Okay, and a lot of other |
| 411 | 01:09:28,109 --> 01:09:36,599 | people tried it too, and it never pans out. You understand how markets operate. Like we're sharing right here, you'll find trades immediately, you know, when |
| 412 | 01:09:36,599 --> 01:09:45,809 | they're gonna happen. I don't need a software program to show me when a pattern is on the chart. I know timewise daily, the day of the week is gonna occur. I |
| 413 | 01:09:45,809 --> 01:09:53,339 | know what time is going to occur. I know how the pattern is going to unfold. I know where it's most likely going to go directionally. Tell me that software |
| 414 | 01:09:53,339 --> 01:09:59,429 | program is going to do that in advance. I could tell you the days of the weeks and months in advance when those patterns are going to happen, because they're |
| 415 | 01:09:59,429 --> 01:10:09,719 | that genetic. Eric, I'm sorry, but everything else is playing catch up ball to what you're learning. This is how the markets operate. I'm not trying to sell |
| 416 | 01:10:09,719 --> 01:10:19,379 | you the idea. I'm telling you challenge me on it, go through the processes that I'm sharing with you right now. And you tell me that it doesn't work like this, |
| 417 | 01:10:19,409 --> 01:10:30,389 | you tell me, you show me that it doesn't work. I've already put it out there, I will give you $10,000 of US currency, cash, to a PayPal account to whatever you |
| 418 | 01:10:30,389 --> 01:10:39,719 | want to do. Okay, how to receive it. You show me how this does not consistently work. And you can't be consistently profitable. Okay, by doing what I'm showing |
| 419 | 01:10:39,719 --> 01:10:49,409 | you, I'm guarantee you, it's impossible for you to not be successful with this. Think about what I just said. That's a very, very heavy statement I just laid |
| 420 | 01:10:49,409 --> 01:10:57,809 | out there. But I mean, everything I'm telling you, if you do everything, I'm showing you to do development exercises, doing the process of looking |
| 421 | 01:10:57,809 --> 01:11:04,949 | everything, breaking the market down like we're showing right here, having a risk on risk off scenario, trading with institutional sponsors behind the ideas |
| 422 | 01:11:05,039 --> 01:11:16,589 | of your trade. Do you have the framework that's cognisant okay? Or that times that is representative of what the market should be doing moving higher or |
| 423 | 01:11:16,589 --> 01:11:25,289 | lower? If a bear markets on their way? What is your daily charts look like? Down days? Right? How that is down, they start typically with an up move intraday, |
| 424 | 01:11:25,319 --> 01:11:34,259 | that's usually cutting many traders by surprise, wait a minute, I bought that I'm here I am buying a high the day, guess what? I did that. You're probably |
| 425 | 01:11:34,259 --> 01:11:43,619 | doing it now. There's an answer to it. And it's by taking yourself out of the textbooks out of the the guys that want to sell you things and teach you how to |
| 426 | 01:11:43,619 --> 01:11:53,339 | be the greatest trader in the world. Okay, let me tell you something. If they're selling you that stuff, they need the money. If they need the money, they need |
| 427 | 01:11:53,339 --> 01:11:54,209 | that good of a trader. |
| 428 | 01:11:54,690 --> 01:12:03,420 | And it's just that simple. I don't need your money. I don't need your thank yous, I don't need any of that stuff. I covered it, because I enjoy reading the |
| 429 | 01:12:03,420 --> 01:12:13,620 | success stories. Market wizards, Volume One and two favorite books, because I was inspired by them. Not all of them. But several individuals in there. I was |
| 430 | 01:12:13,620 --> 01:12:23,790 | inspired by I liked their story. I want more that swagger is not putting any more books out there. They are engaging to me. So I want to create nor Okay, I |
| 431 | 01:12:23,790 --> 01:12:31,440 | want to create more stories. And I like sharing my story with you guys. And it may be a broken record to some of you. Okay, but I want to see more of that. And |
| 432 | 01:12:31,440 --> 01:12:40,980 | it's going to come through you doing these very things. Okay. So I know I'm on a soapbox and I went down another rabbit trail. But yeah, that's all part of the |
| 433 | 01:12:40,980 --> 01:12:47,340 | price of being in these videos, guys, you knew that in advance, it's going to be rabbit trails. And there's going to be things that you have to listen to and |
| 434 | 01:12:47,340 --> 01:12:56,910 | rants and to suck it up. So now using this example, we understand that we're in an area or an environment, if you will, that price should be saying weaker |
| 435 | 01:12:56,910 --> 01:13:03,870 | prices on the cable, while the dollar should be poised to trade higher. Now obviously, in hindsight, we can see that as a fact. Okay, but also, I'm taking |
| 436 | 01:13:03,870 --> 01:13:12,300 | it back to the previous week when I have witnesses. Okay, we're in a live session where I was mapping out all these things and possible scenarios. |
| 437 | 01:13:14,280 --> 01:13:21,300 | Obviously, I shouldn't have to be teaching you support, you know, if price comes down to support, where should price Do you know, go in terms of direction, if |
| 438 | 01:13:21,300 --> 01:13:28,050 | it's going to be support, it's going to go up? Okay. So if that's going to happen in the dollar, we're gonna see weaker prices in the foreign currency |
| 439 | 01:13:28,050 --> 01:13:35,340 | markets. And simply because I like to follow the cable and fiber, obviously, you're gonna see that translated in lower prices between the two asset classes. |
| 440 | 01:13:35,340 --> 01:13:45,750 | Now, we identify the selling scenario during London, we'd like to see that setup. And once we're assuming that we're in the position, how long do we hold |
| 441 | 01:13:45,750 --> 01:13:54,360 | it? Well, there's several different things we'd like to do. We'd like to look at range projections, which is using Fibonacci and swing projections. And we'd like |
| 442 | 01:13:54,360 --> 01:14:04,680 | to use average daily range, which is a tool, that's an indicator I'll share with you, I can't pull up the average daily range here on this day, and, but if you |
| 443 | 01:14:04,680 --> 01:14:13,560 | look at things like average true range, it'll kind of give you like the five, the average range of the last five days. And whatever that range is, you just |
| 444 | 01:14:13,590 --> 01:14:22,200 | add it, I'm sorry, you subtract it from the low, I'm sorry, good grief, I'm really messing this up. The average daily range or average true range of five |
| 445 | 01:14:22,200 --> 01:14:31,650 | days, okay. And if you do that, just take that range and subtract it from the highest high of the day, and it'll give you approximately where the law should |
| 446 | 01:14:31,650 --> 01:14:44,370 | form. Now, I can tell you this, the tool that I use is not average true range, it is a indicator that I've adopted, okay, I, I wish I could remember where I |
| 447 | 01:14:44,370 --> 01:14:53,130 | got it from, because I'd love to be able to give credit to where I did, but I just don't know. And if you guys know where you've seen it before, you know, cuz |
| 448 | 01:14:53,130 --> 01:15:04,050 | I grabbed it off of a forum somewhere. But long and short of it is that tool to me is really good. It's useful. It's one click away, just taking your empty for |
| 449 | 01:15:04,050 --> 01:15:12,270 | clicking it. And it's the ICT average daily range indicator. And I didn't create the tool, I didn't program it, okay, but I did adopt it as my tool for using |
| 450 | 01:15:12,270 --> 01:15:24,690 | average daily range. I do look at average daily range on a four week basis, I look at weekly, average, not average with a weekly average range, I use a |
| 451 | 01:15:24,690 --> 01:15:33,780 | monthly average range, and I use a five day average. And there's an indicator that I've seen out there that shows all three of those that you can have up in |
| 452 | 01:15:33,780 --> 01:15:40,950 | the upper left hand corner of your mt four platform, man, as soon as I find out where I can get it, I will obviously start incorporating it in my videos and |
| 453 | 01:15:41,040 --> 01:15:49,680 | obviously share it with you. But if you do know what I'm talking about, and have it working, take me to that source, right and get it i would love that and I'd |
| 454 | 01:15:49,680 --> 01:16:03,330 | be very appreciative of it. But as it relates to slings, if you're looking at being a seller, obviously here. How long do we hold the trade? Well, time wise. |
| 455 | 01:16:05,940 --> 01:16:15,360 | timelines, we already mentioned that we're looking for 10am in New York. Now that is representative of the beginning of this red line. Okay, now this green |
| 456 | 01:16:15,360 --> 01:16:26,220 | line here is New York session. This is London, close, London, close the beginning is 10am. At least that's how I view it. So if we looked at that, I |
| 457 | 01:16:26,220 --> 01:16:26,940 | shouldn't do that. |
| 458 | 01:16:35,460 --> 01:16:36,390 | Let's get this off. |
| 459 | 01:16:44,490 --> 01:16:49,230 | I have a mouse sitting right here next to me, and I'm still using my touchpad. Good grief. |
| 460 | 01:16:56,130 --> 01:17:11,130 | Okay, this is the beginning of the London closed session. So our idea is between this vertical line is for timewise. Now, this is a general theory, it's very |
| 461 | 01:17:11,130 --> 01:17:19,530 | generic. And I want you to test it, okay. And much like you see here, it doesn't give you the actual low of the day. Okay, but I'm gonna give you a scenario |
| 462 | 01:17:19,530 --> 01:17:29,250 | where you look for it using the new york session, okay. But you have to two times of the day, where you're looking for the opposite and extreme of the day, |
| 463 | 01:17:29,280 --> 01:17:39,480 | no, we're looking at a down day as it relates to this particular vertical, not vertical. But this down move here is all from this line here to this line here. |
| 464 | 01:17:39,570 --> 01:17:50,160 | In terms of time, this is all one day, we have this area here is where we'd like to see the low form on down dates. This is where we anticipated, but the low |
| 465 | 01:17:50,160 --> 01:18:00,690 | conformed during the New York session, the New York session, okay, can either cap the daily range, in other words, make the opposite. And that was formed. In |
| 466 | 01:18:00,690 --> 01:18:11,280 | this case, it's a down day because we have a high up in here in London, the lowest formed here in New York, and starts to rally up. This in here is a |
| 467 | 01:18:11,280 --> 01:18:22,380 | reversal market profile. market comes down makes a low of the day in New York session and trades now later on, it does trade sideways going into the new day. |
| 468 | 01:18:22,740 --> 01:18:34,080 | But we do have the London close timeframe. If you were to take profits from here, entering up here and closing a trade out here, would you be upset about |
| 469 | 01:18:34,080 --> 01:18:44,430 | that? You didn't capture the very, very low low. Okay, you're out here. If you're waiting for perfect scenarios all the time, and you're just going to hold |
| 470 | 01:18:44,430 --> 01:18:52,380 | to London close because ICT said London close timeframe is 10 and 11am. And I'm not going to be out before then. Okay, you're going to miss some opportunities |
| 471 | 01:18:52,380 --> 01:19:00,930 | like this where you get out at a better price. So how do we answer that equation? Time and price time and price so we have to incorporate a couple other |
| 472 | 01:19:00,930 --> 01:19:12,690 | things prior to this move down this little spike up in drops. Okay, this Judas swing up we have this primary swing here. They may not be primary too many of |
| 473 | 01:19:12,690 --> 01:19:24,750 | you, but to me, this is how I look at market structure. We have a low and the highest high in here. Okay, is what we look for. Well, let's look at this. Right |
| 474 | 01:19:24,750 --> 01:19:39,000 | here. Okay, see this they're pretty much equal. So we're gonna use a fib right? Take the low up to the high. That's we're dropping. Okay. See that? When we have |
| 475 | 01:19:39,000 --> 01:19:52,650 | that when we're looking for lower prices, we expect this swing to be measurable move. Once this low is taken out, which it is here, we look for 127 162 and 200 |
| 476 | 01:19:52,710 --> 01:20:02,670 | extensions. Do you want an extension is basically a multiple, a doubling if you will, the range from the low To the high, once the lows taken out, it'll move |
| 477 | 01:20:02,670 --> 01:20:15,090 | that much range equivalent from the low down. And that's what you get 200% here, okay? The 162 extension is in here. And a 127 extension is here, at any one of |
| 478 | 01:20:15,090 --> 01:20:29,670 | these three price levels, okay? If price gets to it inside of New York or London, that's when you take profits. We were trading at the beginning of New |
| 479 | 01:20:29,670 --> 01:20:36,450 | York right here. So we were inside New York, and we traded it to 200 deaths, when you take your profits, you can leave a little bit on expecting lower |
| 480 | 01:20:36,450 --> 01:20:46,470 | prices, okay, and maybe reach for the Monday close timeframe, then. But as it relates to perfection, you're not going to expect perfection, you want to take |
| 481 | 01:20:46,470 --> 01:20:52,140 | some profits out there. In fact, you want to take some out, when we get below this low as well, you want to take a little bit off something you want to take |
| 482 | 01:20:52,140 --> 01:21:05,640 | something off, okay? And if you can manage it, where over time, if you start building your understanding of trading, and you start working out to 2% risk per |
| 483 | 01:21:05,640 --> 01:21:14,760 | trade if you do that, if you take off a half a percent, a half of 1% Okay, leaving one and a half percent on the trade for the rest of the day, that will |
| 484 | 01:21:14,760 --> 01:21:27,270 | give you a huge head start in terms of satisfying the many times insatiable desire to you be right. Okay, that that hunger to be right. is many times |
| 485 | 01:21:27,930 --> 01:21:37,080 | alleviated. Okay, if you take a little bit off and you show a positive gain out of the trade, that way, even if it does come back and stops you out, you had |
| 486 | 01:21:37,080 --> 01:21:47,220 | something that you took out of the marketplace, okay? You can't be right all the time. And these tools will not 100% give you that level of accuracy, but it will |
| 487 | 01:21:47,220 --> 01:21:49,530 | give you insane accuracy that nothing else delivers. |
| 488 | 01:21:51,300 --> 01:22:00,270 | Going over to the fiber. Okay, we're gonna look at something as it relates to the same phenomenon. Okay. much in the same vein, we seen bullish prices in the |
| 489 | 01:22:00,270 --> 01:22:12,060 | dollar, which would be translated in lower prices in the fiber. Okay, let's zoom in. And we're gonna look at that same day. Okay. Here's Wednesday, today, |
| 490 | 01:22:12,090 --> 01:22:25,080 | Tuesday, Monday, Sunday Friday. Take a look at what's going on here. See how price is rallying on that day? See that. This shouldn't be occurring. Think |
| 491 | 01:22:25,080 --> 01:22:36,660 | about it. If the dollar is poised to rally What the heck is the fiber doing rally? That is going to be a short term sell scenario. Okay. Now contrast that |
| 492 | 01:22:37,170 --> 01:22:51,930 | with what we see here in the cable. Just go back to candlesticks. Okay, here's Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday, Sunday, Friday, Friday's a down move on to fiber |
| 493 | 01:22:52,500 --> 01:23:04,830 | Fridays and up move. That don't make any sense, does it? Well, what you're looking at is this is actually a short term trade, okay, versus a day trade. You |
| 494 | 01:23:04,830 --> 01:23:15,000 | have a move, it's moving counter to the directional premise that's established by the dollar, okay. In other words, fires rallying in a risk off scenario, |
| 495 | 01:23:15,120 --> 01:23:23,850 | nother words, they're setting up a scenario that's going to be a little bit more of a move going lower. Okay. And also, this is actually the weaker of the two |
| 496 | 01:23:23,850 --> 01:23:34,260 | pairs between the fiber and cable. If you look at what's going on, cable, let me zoom out a little bit here. Cable was making this higher high back here, while |
| 497 | 01:23:34,260 --> 01:23:48,000 | the same time in June, July last the last day of June, going into the first week or two of July, we made higher highs in cable. We did not see that in the fiber. |
| 498 | 01:23:49,560 --> 01:23:58,140 | Okay, we were seeing lower prices. In fact, it's been really soft compared to the cable. So the weaker sister between the two. And in relationship to the |
| 499 | 01:23:59,010 --> 01:24:09,150 | cable and Euro USD more fiber. Fiber was obviously the weaker of the two. But we have this momentary break in that correlation. And it says a rally underway. |
| 500 | 01:24:09,390 --> 01:24:18,690 | What's going on here is it's coming back to take out stops. Okay, one of the things I talked about many times is the best moves occur rate after a |
| 501 | 01:24:18,960 --> 01:24:33,960 | predetermined level of stops gets taken out. And that looks like this. Okay, you see these highs here, almost equal. If you look at what we have, and I'll show |
| 502 | 01:24:33,960 --> 01:24:44,970 | you this is it's really uncanny how this happens almost all the time. Equal low, equal highs rather. Okay, so this price point, if you add 10 pips to that, |
| 503 | 01:24:45,540 --> 01:24:54,180 | that's about where all the stop losses are going to be for everyone that's short. Fiber comes up, goes just above that level, and I'm going to extend this |
| 504 | 01:24:54,180 --> 01:24:54,990 | line so you can see it |
| 505 | 01:25:00,000 --> 01:25:09,150 | Sorry, I'm ocds flare and I got to make sure this level is lined up. Otherwise, it'll drive me crazy. Price rallies up through it takes out this, this level of |
| 506 | 01:25:09,270 --> 01:25:25,980 | stops. Now I'm going to zoom in on this particular day here on the first of August, and we're gonna get down to a 15 minute timeframe. Okay, and here's that |
| 507 | 01:25:25,980 --> 01:25:33,690 | rally up above a clean level, this is what we call clean to clean. stops are gonna be resting just above that. Now watch. I've already told you what you're |
| 508 | 01:25:33,690 --> 01:25:42,480 | looking for. You're looking for a range of 10 pets. So you want to put our rectangle right on that level of the highs. Okay, and we're going to look for a |
| 509 | 01:25:42,480 --> 01:25:55,290 | range of 10 Seattle nine. See as 10 it says five here 10 drop it right there. That's as far as we'd like to see price rally up through and reject if it does |
| 510 | 01:25:55,290 --> 01:26:04,470 | that. What we've just witnessed was a raid on stops is bad boys going lower. Now notice also how I have the chart set up? Doesn't this look like a bull flag? |
| 511 | 01:26:05,280 --> 01:26:14,940 | Look at it. Doesn't this look like a perfect little bull flag? So all the classic chart patterns tell teach us that we should be buying this thing, okay? |
| 512 | 01:26:15,000 --> 01:26:27,480 | And we're going to expect to see a move. Okay, here's the flagpole. Here's the high, it's going to rally up from this level here. So we're going to expect to |
| 513 | 01:26:27,480 --> 01:26:42,090 | see price classically trade to about the 134 80 level. That's what the textbooks teach us. Well, that's not what happens. Okay. And by having that understood, |
| 514 | 01:26:42,240 --> 01:26:50,730 | okay, you got to understand that there are times when textbook stuff will work. But it's going to be when it's in line with the underlying tone of the |
| 515 | 01:26:50,730 --> 01:27:04,590 | marketplace, when it's set up to move. Okay. What I mean by that is that unless it's risk off risk on, based in dollar driven, and you have institutional |
| 516 | 01:27:04,590 --> 01:27:12,960 | factors that between your entries and your exits, it's not going to pan out it, the banks don't care about your chart patterns. In fact, market makers love |
| 517 | 01:27:12,990 --> 01:27:22,230 | chart patterns, because it gives them reasons to see see more liquidity come into the marketplace. Okay? And what does that mean? Well, if you were a buyer |
| 518 | 01:27:22,230 --> 01:27:33,930 | down here, as you're looking at chart patterns, you're buying here, so we're gonna have to protect your your position, a sell stop. Right here. So you're |
| 519 | 01:27:33,930 --> 01:27:45,420 | buying, there's gonna be stops, I'm gonna hear if you if a trader can take you out, okay, in that position, they assume that, that difference in terms of |
| 520 | 01:27:45,420 --> 01:27:58,590 | price, you as a developing smart trader, you want to say, I don't want to trade like this. In fact, I want to see where the stops on the other side of the |
| 521 | 01:27:58,590 --> 01:28:08,340 | marketplace are going to be. Okay, and what does that look like? Well, if the market expects based on this bullish pattern, if it should be rallying, okay, |
| 522 | 01:28:08,850 --> 01:28:17,490 | they're going to be looking for continuation higher breakout artists are going to use these little areas like here, okay, and they're going to have stop orders |
| 523 | 01:28:17,490 --> 01:28:24,720 | the violent stop, okay? Or they're going to be looking to wait for price to break out like it does here. And then there'll be a buyer. Well, you as a |
| 524 | 01:28:24,720 --> 01:28:33,330 | trader, you view that as the liquidity necessary for you to take the other side of the trade. So as price breaks above this high here and gives you a turtle |
| 525 | 01:28:33,330 --> 01:28:42,120 | soup pattern, or false breakout, that's where you want to sell you do not want to view that as buying strength usually you that as a suspect rally, sell it |
| 526 | 01:28:42,660 --> 01:29:06,450 | boom, it falls out of bed. Okay. Now the time of day for this let's look at that. And this is on August 5, this is yesterday do the kill zones and zoom in |
| 527 | 01:29:09,720 --> 01:29:17,040 | so August 5 right in here so we have to beginning of London |
| 528 | 01:29:23,100 --> 01:29:34,470 | right here and it just your kills enters a little just a little late here which is reason why we like to use the buffer. I know that sounds like I'm always |
| 529 | 01:29:34,470 --> 01:29:48,990 | trying to you know, form fit these these results but six GMT, okay is one of the moves can occur as early as 1am or six GMT. Having that mind again and these are |
| 530 | 01:29:48,990 --> 01:29:59,310 | all in your notes. Okay, that's the high right there at six TNT or wanting in New York time. Then false breakout trade lower, which is the reason why I tell |
| 531 | 01:29:59,310 --> 01:30:09,780 | you guys always I'm usually up between 1215 and 1am. My time, and I'm looking for London setups based on what I see, you know, on the charts around that time. |
| 532 | 01:30:11,160 --> 01:30:20,610 | If you looked at the, what we discussed in relationship to midnight, and here's five GMT, this little move here, that's all it's necessary. Okay, so I get |
| 533 | 01:30:20,610 --> 01:30:29,220 | questioned all the time. Okay, well, how much of a Judas swing? Do you need? Oh, it depends on what you have on your chart. And I'm not trying to blow off your |
| 534 | 01:30:29,250 --> 01:30:36,690 | your question, it really is that just that simple, is a lot of other framework gets taken into consideration, like we have over here, this looks too good, like |
| 535 | 01:30:36,690 --> 01:30:46,050 | a bull flag. And a lot of participants are going to be looking to, you know, try to be expecting this thing go higher. Also, you got these guys that broke out on |
| 536 | 01:30:46,080 --> 01:30:54,180 | the downside. price went lower. Okay, they're on, they're on the sell side. So now how are they gonna protect your position? Okay, they're going to be putting |
| 537 | 01:30:54,180 --> 01:31:04,380 | a stop loss. Where is the stock going to be right above the previous little high right in here? Well, when you look at price like this, you're thinking exactly |
| 538 | 01:31:04,380 --> 01:31:13,890 | how the market makers think you're not looking at a retail perspective, you're looking at how the market is traded in the eyes of a of a dealer or a market |
| 539 | 01:31:13,890 --> 01:31:24,000 | maker. Your stocks gonna be right above here, if you're a seller, they come right back and take those guys out. Okay, so they, they neutralize any hopes of |
| 540 | 01:31:24,000 --> 01:31:33,060 | the bulls that use these bull flag patterns, they neutralize the participants that have been net short, that would be profiting over here. But they don't want |
| 541 | 01:31:33,060 --> 01:31:41,490 | those individuals being profitable to take the stops out over here, because their stop loss is gonna be above here. Right above it, right above the Asian |
| 542 | 01:31:41,490 --> 01:31:54,630 | range high. This whole little box here is Asian range. So if you understand that, you'll know that that make sure I'm telling you it's true. I don't want |
| 543 | 01:31:54,630 --> 01:32:04,380 | you to know what you think as Asian range and it may be see central mind dealing range. Yes, Asian range. Okay, this is your gente This is Asian range. Price |
| 544 | 01:32:04,440 --> 01:32:14,640 | talks about the Asian range high and an old intraday high and rejects quickly, and trades lower. So that's, you know, that's the pattern. It's there. It's you |
| 545 | 01:32:14,640 --> 01:32:16,320 | have your turtle soup, and you also have your |
| 546 | 01:32:22,860 --> 01:32:39,450 | tea right here, right to the PIP. Okay. So that's it. That's what it looks like, going over both pairs and using the same context that we use for. Let's get this |
| 547 | 01:32:39,450 --> 01:32:40,170 | stuff off. |
| 548 | 01:32:54,360 --> 01:33:09,570 | We have price trading. Here, we went short here. So what do we use, we use the swings. Okay, we have a couple different reference points we can use, we can use |
| 549 | 01:33:09,570 --> 01:33:18,030 | the smaller one here up to the high. Okay, so you could be looking to take profit down here on the 200 extension. But there's nothing down here lining out |
| 550 | 01:33:18,030 --> 01:33:26,940 | that. So if we're looking for lower prices, you would be expecting this low to be taken out, because stocks will be residing on the day as well. So dealers |
| 551 | 01:33:26,940 --> 01:33:35,190 | will be more interested in trying to get price to go underneath that low. And should it go that point, we'll be looking to take profits at 127. Once you get |
| 552 | 01:33:35,190 --> 01:33:42,810 | two or two on an extension, you can see price comes down to 127. Look at a nice bounce that happens right there. And later on gives you on the buy scenario |
| 553 | 01:33:42,810 --> 01:33:54,600 | here, which we're not going to teach that here. But it does violate a little bit within rallies up. If you don't use this low here. You can use this low here and |
| 554 | 01:33:55,380 --> 01:34:07,770 | write this in your notes. There's no wrong way to take profits. And I'll say it again, there's no incorrect way of taking profits. If you make a profit, you're |
| 555 | 01:34:07,770 --> 01:34:18,540 | better than you were before you took the trade period. That's all you need to know. That's That's it. That's that's that's all there is. Okay. So now if you'd |
| 556 | 01:34:18,540 --> 01:34:35,040 | use the primary move here, okay, you can use the 200 extension here, nails to the PIP one 162, extension and 127. They're all respectable levels. Okay, using |
| 557 | 01:34:35,040 --> 01:34:44,340 | the entry point. That's, that's what we like to use that if you're looking at just pure market structure swings and nothing else. You can use these classic |
| 558 | 01:34:44,340 --> 01:34:54,030 | reference points. This low to high, you get the 127 and 162. Okay, so I'm adding both of them. I know some of you guys are looking at this. Oh, that's not how |
| 559 | 01:34:54,030 --> 01:35:01,440 | you know, you're right. That's not how they do it. This is how I do it. This is how everyone else does it. They use a lot Hi and then they find the levels |
| 560 | 01:35:01,440 --> 01:35:09,060 | that's fine. Okay, but there's gonna be a lot of other targets that dude classical application of fibs will never line up with but you'll see me doing it |
| 561 | 01:35:09,060 --> 01:35:20,610 | in videos and mine ob surgical in precision and the other ones sometimes don't get met. And you have this low to high as well. And you have the 127 Okay, so if |
| 562 | 01:35:20,610 --> 01:35:31,050 | you look for a confluence of a lot of levels lining up, and old support resistance levels, Daniel, you'll see a lot more reasons to cover at those |
| 563 | 01:35:31,050 --> 01:35:37,470 | levels not to simply Hey, you know, I made 20 pips, let me get out. If you do that, and you're London trader, you're going to leave a lot of money on the |
| 564 | 01:35:37,470 --> 01:35:45,960 | table. And there's really no reason for that. One of the greatest lessons I learned from Larry Williams was the best way to make money is hold to the close. |
| 565 | 01:35:46,380 --> 01:35:54,810 | And I did that as s&p trader and a bond trader once day trading the futures market. And it's absolutely true. I mean, you leave a lot of money on the table |
| 566 | 01:35:54,810 --> 01:36:06,090 | if you're just scalping and kicking couple pips and saying, okay, I want to make my living on. So, let's scroll forward a little bit here. This is where we're at |
| 567 | 01:36:06,090 --> 01:36:21,480 | intraday today. It's kind of ugly, if you look at really what's going on yesterday as well. The the idea of incorporating directional premise, when we |
| 568 | 01:36:21,480 --> 01:36:34,020 | have an area like this, okay, I'm going to pull up another US dollar. And we're going to do the averages on a daily chart. |
| 569 | 01:36:39,030 --> 01:36:52,470 | Okay, so we have across the 18 and 40. And they start stacking right here, this is a really good time. So this actually occurs on July 21. So we are in a really |
| 570 | 01:36:52,530 --> 01:37:03,510 | clear, institutionally sponsored bull move on the dollar. So that is going to be a precursor to looking for sell scenarios in fiber and cable to remember this |
| 571 | 01:37:03,510 --> 01:37:20,190 | date, July 21 2014, now we go over to our cable. Let's just go over here like this one. And we're going to apply same thing Well, that's not what I wanted to |
| 572 | 01:37:20,190 --> 01:37:20,430 | do. |
| 573 | 01:37:25,620 --> 01:37:45,840 | Okay, so we have a zoom in we have a delay in the crossover here until what days is the 21st so we're looking at 10 days later before we see the the same thing |
| 574 | 01:37:45,840 --> 01:37:56,100 | occurring in cable in terms of using the moving averages. Now that's for looking for swing trades, okay 18 to 40 is used for swing trades or short term trades, |
| 575 | 01:37:56,640 --> 01:38:10,020 | the way we look for day trades for for looking for short term, directional premise driven biased intraday trades. We use 918 okay 918 on a daily chart |
| 576 | 01:38:10,020 --> 01:38:19,590 | gives us the buy model and sell model when it crosses over here start stacking you're in a buy mode look for open down moves in London by the London open wait |
| 577 | 01:38:19,590 --> 01:38:29,310 | for a higher close in London close timeframe. And that's how it works. Okay, if you're in New York trader you look for that environment to occur wake up at New |
| 578 | 01:38:29,310 --> 01:38:39,330 | York opening get your coffee get your doughnuts or wherever going to be new stuffing in your face not advocate eating donuts but whatever you do, you get |
| 579 | 01:38:39,330 --> 01:38:46,770 | yourself prepared for trading. What you want to look for if you're a New York trader is if you're in this environment like this London should have made the |
| 580 | 01:38:46,770 --> 01:38:55,260 | world a day and then what'll happen is you'll see a minor little retracement in New York open and it'll continue on and trading into higher clothes for linen |
| 581 | 01:38:55,260 --> 01:39:06,600 | clothes. The reverse is said for the moose once you have the average is going lower here. Now we have the averages crossing here and this day is July 23. Now |
| 582 | 01:39:06,600 --> 01:39:17,160 | we're very close now to seeing that 21st in July when we saw the bullish move underway in $1 see that okay, read it here I'm just using this little |
| 583 | 01:39:17,160 --> 01:39:27,990 | retracement here as a reference point because I don't want to chase price I want to see some sort of a retracement that happening in here okay we see price on |
| 584 | 01:39:27,990 --> 01:39:39,000 | the 23rd in here. So we have a little bit of a retracement here and then crossing so on this day here begins to sell program for looking for down moves |
| 585 | 01:39:39,030 --> 01:39:49,350 | in the British Pound USD or cable. Now that in mind, okay, we're looking at candlesticks candlesticks are great easy on I. But what I really want you to pay |
| 586 | 01:39:49,350 --> 01:39:59,460 | attention to is using the bar chart. So on this timeframe now I want you to count the level of or not not level but number of days where we have open a |
| 587 | 01:39:59,460 --> 01:40:07,860 | rally and then decline with a lower close. Okay, we have it here. This is a Sunday unchanged could have been a losing day. We'll call it a losing day. Open, |
| 588 | 01:40:07,920 --> 01:40:16,980 | rally down, close, open, rally down, close, open, rally down close, open, rally down close. Do you see what you've just done? You've put yourself in the |
| 589 | 01:40:16,980 --> 01:40:27,630 | driver's seat of a move that is completely out of your hands, no control whatsoever. You can't control price. But guess what you're doing. You're riding |
| 590 | 01:40:27,630 --> 01:40:39,180 | right behind this massive entity that we like to deem smart money. No one else out there really gets to the core of how to ride their coattails whether you |
| 591 | 01:40:39,180 --> 01:40:46,440 | hear them, they say, well, we were trying to ride we're trying to ride the coattails of the smart money. Well, ICT tells you exactly how to do that. It |
| 592 | 01:40:46,440 --> 01:40:56,850 | doesn't provide you at every single day trade opportunity. If you're focusing on one pair. If you have a collaboration of pairs, then yeah, you'll probably get a |
| 593 | 01:40:56,850 --> 01:41:06,780 | trade every single day. Will you make 20 pips every single day? Probably not. Can you make 20 pips average every day? If you do trading like this, you break |
| 594 | 01:41:06,780 --> 01:41:15,690 | it down yeah, sure, because you'll be making 90 pips one day 40 pips another 250 pips another day and the average out over 20 trading days you probably are |
| 595 | 01:41:15,690 --> 01:41:22,020 | making 20 pips every single day. And I do that with my tongue in cheek, but that's what I'm trying to say. Don't think like that don't have daily goals, |
| 596 | 01:41:22,050 --> 01:41:31,350 | okay, have weekly goals. My weekly goal is anywhere between 30 and 50 pips, it used to be 75 pips a day, I'm sorry a week when we had bigger, larger ranges. |
| 597 | 01:41:31,350 --> 01:41:41,520 | But guess what, I adapted to the market the market and I've reduced it and I gotten comfortable. Now with 30 and 50 pips, I can make more money than most |
| 598 | 01:41:41,550 --> 01:41:53,310 | average Americans in the upper echelon, okay, of, you know, middle class, I can do what they earn a year, inside of a month, and not even do more than 50 pips a |
| 599 | 01:41:53,310 --> 01:42:00,660 | week, not a day, a week. So I'm comfortable having a whole lot of free time doing one trade a week, |
| 600 | 01:42:01,500 --> 01:42:08,280 | I don't need the money anymore. When you're developing and you're and you're trying to get to the point where you're you're living on your trading, or when |
| 601 | 01:42:08,280 --> 01:42:16,350 | you don't really need to trade anymore, which is really where I'm at now. trading is fun for me. But I like to obviously make money too. But it's it's an |
| 602 | 01:42:16,350 --> 01:42:27,630 | interesting way of living. And you all are pursuing that that lifestyle, but understand that you are not going to have to do that type of trading to do well. |
| 603 | 01:42:28,320 --> 01:42:36,210 | And it's very important to understand that because if you understand that, it removes a whole lot of unnecessary stress and pressure, and I got to get it done |
| 604 | 01:42:36,210 --> 01:42:47,220 | right now because I'm 49 years old, and I got to get my stuff paid off. And if you think like that, it's going to be a problem. So don't Okay. So now we like |
| 605 | 01:42:47,220 --> 01:42:57,480 | to see that phenomenon take place. So we know when July 21 we had a sell program authorized by a rally up in the dollar, similar words the averages on the dollar |
| 606 | 01:42:57,510 --> 01:43:06,300 | on the daily chart were opening and pointing up, which was seen reverse here two days later on the cable. So from here over to present, this is what we have |
| 607 | 01:43:06,300 --> 01:43:15,120 | mapped out. So we when we go down to a lower timeframe, we're looking specifically for only looking to sell not looking to buy Okay, can you make |
| 608 | 01:43:15,120 --> 01:43:23,310 | money buying Sure you can. I don't like that idea. And I think people that trade against institution sponsors are absolutely nuts. Okay. Sorry, I just that's |
| 609 | 01:43:23,310 --> 01:43:30,930 | just the way I feel. And the majority of the money is being made when you're having institutional flows behind you. Not trading against it, okay, I'm not |
| 610 | 01:43:30,930 --> 01:43:40,470 | gonna arm wrestle UBS. I'm just not gonna do it. So looking at where we're at here is the down move self programming in the charts, we go down one more level |
| 611 | 01:43:40,470 --> 01:43:56,880 | to four hour. Okay, and we move over to present. Okay, and when we have the averages, broken down on that as well, because this is our intraday timeframe |
| 612 | 01:43:56,910 --> 01:44:07,650 | for our okay for our is our intraday timeframe. So when the averages are going lower, we have a green light, go look for openings, and Judas swings higher in |
| 613 | 01:44:07,650 --> 01:44:16,080 | London, sell into that. Also, if London makes that high, we're going to talk about New York in a second, we're going to look for the New York session, Judas |
| 614 | 01:44:16,080 --> 01:44:26,220 | swing and how we incorporate that. But right in here, okay, we have a very nice indication of we're in sync with the marketplace and who's a marketplace of |
| 615 | 01:44:26,220 --> 01:44:43,830 | smart money. So now what we'll do is we'll add our vertical lines delineating the period separation and we're going to go down to a 15 minute timeframe. zoom |
| 616 | 01:44:43,830 --> 01:44:54,750 | out a little bit more. Okay, from this point here to present. Okay, I want you to look at the chart, and I want you to do this on your own tracks. I'm not |
| 617 | 01:44:54,750 --> 01:45:03,600 | going to do every single one. But once you get down to the sub For our you don't need the moving averages anymore. So you take the moving averages off your |
| 618 | 01:45:03,600 --> 01:45:11,430 | charts, because you don't want to be paying any attention to it under four hours. They don't mean anything to you. If you're a scalper you can use the one |
| 619 | 01:45:11,430 --> 01:45:18,870 | hour timeframe and in trade when it's in sync with that as well but I do not want scalping and I should have probably never told you that but if you are |
| 620 | 01:45:18,870 --> 01:45:25,530 | looking for scalping, then that's how you use it with the one hour but anything less than four hour I'm not interested in with moving averages, okay, because |
| 621 | 01:45:25,530 --> 01:45:35,490 | I've already arrived at a higher timeframe institutional sponsors that based on daily and four hour now, looking at what we have here, okay, what you're looking |
| 622 | 01:45:35,490 --> 01:45:49,560 | at is every single vertical line represents a new trading day at zero GMT shortly after, okay, when we add the period separator and again, I'll share this |
| 623 | 01:45:49,560 --> 01:45:59,220 | with you guys. I'm going to put five GMT which is midnight my time Okay, which is going to be represented by this white line, which now I'm going to change |
| 624 | 01:45:59,220 --> 01:46:11,400 | because I don't like that. It doesn't pop off at the chart so you guys can see it clearly. Let's go to colors. And that's not working right either. See what I |
| 625 | 01:46:11,400 --> 01:46:18,630 | want. See if I can get it to jump with the Red |
| 626 | 01:46:21,750 --> 01:46:29,280 | Mountain outstandingly Well, I'm not sure how to do it. And I'm probably figured out after the video and look foolish, but oh, well, it is what it is. You'll |
| 627 | 01:46:29,280 --> 01:46:41,400 | just have to make do with it. The white line in here is midnight timeframe. Okay in New York. So what you're looking for is a rally after the white line, okay, |
| 628 | 01:46:41,430 --> 01:46:53,970 | or in other words, a rally to the right of that white line each day, the rally that occurs after that white line and up to the ending of New York ICT kill |
| 629 | 01:46:53,970 --> 01:47:02,880 | zone. I'm sorry, London open kill zone for ICT timeframe between two o'clock in the morning New York time and four o'clock in the morning New York time, okay? |
| 630 | 01:47:02,910 --> 01:47:14,220 | or seven GMT, nine GMT. Okay. And again, I understand that it can go as late as 10 GMT, or as early as six GMT or one o'clock in the morning to is latest 5am |
| 631 | 01:47:14,250 --> 01:47:22,740 | New York time. So I go through this video a couple different times because I know I'm probably confusing you going back and forth between the two but |
| 632 | 01:47:22,740 --> 01:47:32,160 | understand it's simply a window of opportunity when the higher low is formed for the day. We understand that inside this orange box. The point of the box is it's |
| 633 | 01:47:32,190 --> 01:47:41,670 | keeping your perspective and only looking to be a seller. You see the power in that you do not want to be buying there's no reason to be a buyer. Why would you |
| 634 | 01:47:41,670 --> 01:47:53,790 | want to do that? You're buying okay in an environment where the large institutional sponsorship okay is saying I am not wanting to be long I want to |
| 635 | 01:47:53,790 --> 01:48:06,780 | sell so who has more money? Credit Suisse or Michael Huddleston clear clearly, I'm not trying to go against these guys. Okay, and when you're on the same side |
| 636 | 01:48:06,780 --> 01:48:17,250 | as them, trading works out. It's just I explained Other than that, it just works out. So looking at every single day, okay, what you're going to look for is |
| 637 | 01:48:17,250 --> 01:48:26,100 | there's going to be a retracement or a swing higher it could be an initial swing up for that makes the high that day or it could be inside of the range that was |
| 638 | 01:48:26,100 --> 01:48:34,260 | already established from the opening at zero GMT, which is zero GMT openings are the darker vertical dashed lines. The white lines are New York midnight |
| 639 | 01:48:34,260 --> 01:48:44,850 | timeframe. Okay, so now let's zoom in and go to the beginning. And it's add the candlesticks because it's a little bit easier to see. So here's your vertical |
| 640 | 01:48:44,850 --> 01:48:53,460 | line here. New York, midnight. Okay, we don't care about the move lower. We don't chase that. We do not care about that. We want to see the rallies up. |
| 641 | 01:48:54,000 --> 01:49:06,990 | Okay. When this rallying up, we already have to have in mind where the old highs are stops above it. Chelsea, so Okay, new day here. Now I'm not going to go |
| 642 | 01:49:06,990 --> 01:49:13,560 | through all the details about how how far it went, what time it stopped and all that business you could do that on your own and I'm encouraging you to do that's |
| 643 | 01:49:13,560 --> 01:49:22,770 | the point of me showing you this. Here again, we have a midnight timeframe. The opening price here. Okay, we don't care about the move lower. We want to be |
| 644 | 01:49:22,770 --> 01:49:31,020 | above the opening price much in the same capacity here. We had the opening price here at the vertical line. It's white and here. We want to be selling above that |
| 645 | 01:49:31,020 --> 01:49:42,300 | price. It has to be above that price, or we need selling. That's the filter. Okay. You're selling above the opening price here. Here's the rally up. Boom, |
| 646 | 01:49:42,330 --> 01:50:00,210 | you sell it. Okay. Here is the opening price. Very modest little move of it doesn't matter. It's all you need. Sell it down move you have at all. Trade |
| 647 | 01:50:00,210 --> 01:50:09,060 | entry in here, you could have traded this one here and even taken profits, the old low and could have done 1520 pips, okay, but then it reversed and traded |
| 648 | 01:50:09,060 --> 01:50:17,700 | higher, came back and could have stopped you if you had your stop loss lowered in here. So this could have been a day where you could have made money and you |
| 649 | 01:50:17,700 --> 01:50:25,170 | could have lost it or you could have just simply did nothing. It is a Friday, I don't want to take trade Friday. So that kind of falls in a category in itself |
| 650 | 01:50:25,170 --> 01:50:36,810 | as well. So I like to trade predominantly Tuesday, Wednesdays and Thursdays. If I made money on Tuesdays or Wednesdays I don't do any trading or acid week. We |
| 651 | 01:50:36,810 --> 01:50:48,180 | have the scenario here. Here's midnight, and the price rallies up. We have old highs back here, clean highs. So above that would be what stops look for a price |
| 652 | 01:50:48,180 --> 01:50:55,770 | to rally up to that and then reject. And you see that happening here it tooks a little bit longer into the next day. But we have an optimal trade entry here. |
| 653 | 01:50:55,920 --> 01:51:04,470 | trades back up to an a bearish order block the last bullish move up, look at that low draw that out in time comes right back to that price point. Also notice |
| 654 | 01:51:04,470 --> 01:51:14,400 | that it's also taking out an old high here, after midnight, see the rally up, it's taken out stop. And its ultimate, ultimate skinny, ultimately, also |
| 655 | 01:51:14,400 --> 01:51:20,400 | fulfilling and optimal trade entry. Pull your fear from this high down to that low. And I know a lot of you guys are saying Well, can you just do it? Michael, |
| 656 | 01:51:20,430 --> 01:51:22,950 | can you just put the film on your site? I need to see it. |
| 657 | 01:51:25,890 --> 01:51:40,050 | Right here. Optimal trade entry boom. Where's the candle out here? That is 845 GMT surprised as to London open kill zone. And then as your move going lower how |
| 658 | 01:51:40,050 --> 01:51:50,730 | many trades that we've seen so far? Guys? He gets enough pips. Just this day alone. Is 10 2030 4050 pips easily that one day. That's one that's one week. |
| 659 | 01:51:50,730 --> 01:51:59,640 | That's it, I'm done. That's it. That's the whole week for me, I'm not worried about trading anymore. Okay. Now, here's a optimal trade entry inside of the |
| 660 | 01:51:59,640 --> 01:52:07,860 | range. That's already happened here. Now, why am I using it like this? Why am I going to pull it from here to here to get an optimal trade entry in here? Well, |
| 661 | 01:52:07,860 --> 01:52:17,220 | because we took out, we taken out a previous day's low, when you see that the chances of it coming all the way back up here is unlikely, it's unlikely, |
| 662 | 01:52:17,220 --> 01:52:26,430 | especially when you're in a down move when the when it's heavily weighted moving lower, longer term. On a higher time frame basis, like a daily chart, you're |
| 663 | 01:52:26,430 --> 01:52:43,470 | really expecting too much of the market. Okay. And with that understood, here's the midnight high, New York on the low, here it is. And it goes right up to the |
| 664 | 01:52:43,470 --> 01:52:51,120 | sweet spot right to the PIP. And that's difficult to see but do this on your own charts. Okay, I'm just giving you the the framework. But we we had a low |
| 665 | 01:52:51,120 --> 01:52:59,580 | previous day went down, blew through it thinking right back up, trade it back inside this consolidation, then down goes notice it's also went up to this |
| 666 | 01:52:59,580 --> 01:53:10,410 | previous order block is a Down, down, it's up, candle up candle prior to the down move. If you use this little candle on here as well, same thing goes right |
| 667 | 01:53:10,410 --> 01:53:19,980 | down to that low and trades off. Okay, that's how precise you can get. But again, because you're doing what you're focusing on being a bear. Why? Because |
| 668 | 01:53:19,980 --> 01:53:27,660 | institutional sponsorship suggests that they're long the dollar, which means it's gonna be downward pressure on current, the cable and we have institutional |
| 669 | 01:53:27,660 --> 01:53:36,420 | sponsorship because averages are pointing lower on cable and they're opening up wide. So we don't want to buck that trend. We want to stay with that trend. We |
| 670 | 01:53:36,420 --> 01:53:44,370 | don't care about picking the bottoms. We don't care about that. Nobody wants to nobody wants to pick the bottom in ICT camp when we're when the bear market, |
| 671 | 01:53:44,400 --> 01:53:51,630 | okay, we don't care about that. We're gonna make all kinds of money and pips just going with institutional sponsorship. Okay, just take all that wanting to |
| 672 | 01:53:51,630 --> 01:53:59,400 | be right out of it. Okay. Alright, so we have another little rally in here. Okay, after after midnight timeframe. Now you're saying Oh, wait a minute. |
| 673 | 01:53:59,400 --> 01:54:09,870 | That's not that's not much, right. It doesn't have to be much. Okay. Look over here. What do you see? See this big move down. There's an institutional order |
| 674 | 01:54:09,870 --> 01:54:24,480 | block right in here. The bullish candle prior to the move lower. That's where the, the selling is going to be. So if you add that level, right here, price |
| 675 | 01:54:24,510 --> 01:54:38,340 | trades back to that level, we expect to see selling pressure. Add to that. Okay, I'm going to darken this up in a different color line. Okay, we'll make it red. |
| 676 | 01:54:39,930 --> 01:54:55,980 | Okay, so there's your order block it traded into. Now add to it also the fib. See, the high here is downswing here, this is the parent price swing. And you're |
| 677 | 01:54:55,980 --> 01:55:13,860 | still right there. price comes right up to the sweet spot boom. When's it happen after midnight, right up near bang, okay. sells off. Okay. early that day didn't |
| 678 | 01:55:13,860 --> 01:55:30,090 | give you the classic 2am timeframe. But on this day it occurs at 545. While you're 15 minutes early, so you may have to catch the order block that was here, |
| 679 | 01:55:30,570 --> 01:55:42,000 | trading up in to the still early Frankfurt, it's 630 GMT, unless you were probably doing lemon odors, or just simply being up and awake and watching it, |
| 680 | 01:55:42,480 --> 01:55:51,630 | you may not have, honestly, you may not have gotten a really good film on this one. Or maybe you missed the move all together, which is, which is realistic. |
| 681 | 01:55:55,470 --> 01:56:07,620 | Okay, we have another one here, this is a real classic one, you have the high and low, here's the move up after midnight rallies up. And you're probably |
| 682 | 01:56:07,620 --> 01:56:14,730 | already seeing it before I put it on the chart. Let's get this one off. |
| 683 | 01:56:16,320 --> 01:56:26,970 | Right up there perfect. Optimal trade entry, bam, setting offset slam, which is one we've, we've discussed. And not surprisingly, okay, here's one, okay, and |
| 684 | 01:56:26,970 --> 01:56:37,170 | this is good that we're showing this, we have salivation. The rally up, takes out old little high in here. Okay? That would be Honestly, this would be one |
| 685 | 01:56:37,170 --> 01:56:48,750 | that you could have traded with the anticipation and test it easy for me to say anticipating rather, the move trading lower. Okay. And while it does trade |
| 686 | 01:56:48,750 --> 01:56:58,020 | lower, it does come back ultimately, and rejects and trades higher. And you saw price come back rather explosively. And that's because we have a gap right here. |
| 687 | 01:56:58,530 --> 01:57:05,760 | Okay, whenever you have gaps in your chart, you want to kind of put blocks on that and extend them out in time because price will come back up to these and |
| 688 | 01:57:05,760 --> 01:57:21,210 | fill that. Okay. much in the same vein it does here and actually traded this at 168 54 was my entry. And I just took 20 pips, I didn't capture anything much |
| 689 | 01:57:21,240 --> 01:57:30,360 | more than that. But same thing happening here. And know, you're probably saying, Wait a minute, you just bought during the buy program, I mean, a sell program. |
| 690 | 01:57:30,420 --> 01:57:38,340 | Yeah, because we have this gap in here. And it was a smaller intraday scalp. And I hadn't caught hadn't caught anything. Because there's a lot of personal things |
| 691 | 01:57:38,340 --> 01:57:46,050 | going on my life. And I just wanted to be able to take something out for the week and be done. And that's what I did. So I have a birthday coming up this |
| 692 | 01:57:46,050 --> 01:57:57,990 | Friday, on the big 42. So I'm trying to clear my my schedule out. So that's that's the reason for the little, little buddy move in here. I haven't been able |
| 693 | 01:57:57,990 --> 01:58:07,500 | to be in front of the charts to capture anything in here. And honestly, there isn't anything in here that would be you know, something I could say my tools |
| 694 | 01:58:07,500 --> 01:58:17,520 | were able to deliver. So outside of that little little minor move in here. There's been nothing for me to trade this week. And ultimately, we're going to |
| 695 | 01:58:17,520 --> 01:58:24,930 | be focusing on just the fiber. I'm sorry, the cable not the fiber anymore. Going forward. We do our live sessions because I just want to be working on one pair. |
| 696 | 01:58:25,950 --> 01:58:39,150 | But we talked about the power three, we talked about Judas swings, I did not cover the Judas swing for New York. So let's do that now. All right, New York |
| 697 | 01:58:39,150 --> 01:58:53,280 | session typically sees an opening around 7am New York time, okay, and can use 12 GMT. Now, what I like to look at is I want to see what 6am okay? 6am, which is |
| 698 | 01:58:53,280 --> 01:59:06,300 | 11 GMT, I want to see that vertical line. And that'll give you your Judas swing parameter, okay, for the New York session. Now, let's go back and look at this |
| 699 | 01:59:06,300 --> 01:59:17,520 | example. And I'll tell you why I did what I did against the trend. We had a possible low formed here because we have really aggressive move form right off |
| 700 | 01:59:17,520 --> 01:59:27,660 | of this, this price point here and this is actually 745 GMT. Okay, price snaps up aggressively and it leaves a gap. All I wanted to do see if it would come |
| 701 | 01:59:27,660 --> 01:59:35,940 | back up to this and I was trying to play an optimal trade entry for continuation going lower, but using the exit for the optimal trade entry pattern. In other |
| 702 | 01:59:35,940 --> 01:59:37,140 | words, I was looking at this. |
| 703 | 01:59:42,720 --> 01:59:51,840 | I was using this area here to exit my long price came down filled the gap. But more importantly, I want you to look at what's going on. This is what I was |
| 704 | 01:59:51,840 --> 02:00:01,530 | trading off of. I was betting that this was the low of the day. Why? Because it was happening in London, London, blew up real hard and then retreat. Okay, it |
| 705 | 02:00:01,530 --> 02:00:09,000 | filled the gap. If there was no gap in here, I never would have thought this trade ever would have considered taking a trade. But because there was a gap. I |
| 706 | 02:00:09,000 --> 02:00:19,710 | went long in here with the expectation that I would see a further move higher why the vertical line delineates 11 GMT or 6am, New York time? If we're going to |
| 707 | 02:00:19,710 --> 02:00:28,530 | be a buyer, what do we like to see first and Judas swing perspective? A down move. See what it's done. Here's the white line. This is New York. Judas |
| 708 | 02:00:28,590 --> 02:00:40,470 | parameter like the five GMT New York for London. We want to see a move down. Also, it fills in a gap and it trades into a previous order block rallies. See |
| 709 | 02:00:40,470 --> 02:00:59,730 | that. If you are looking at over here, your London open down day. Here is the New York session. So how do you get in sync with getting in New York? Well, you |
| 710 | 02:00:59,730 --> 02:01:14,880 | want to see a rally after 11 GMT or 6am that rally that occurs later on? That'll be the retracement inside of the existing daily range. Right up on here 60% sell |
| 711 | 02:01:14,880 --> 02:01:26,250 | here. Try to get back to the old low notice it doesn't do it here. Failed trade. Okay. I'm giving you what would what would happen guys I mean I'm trying to keep |
| 712 | 02:01:26,250 --> 02:01:36,870 | it as real as I possibly can. You have a scenario here as well. You have the high coming off of in the London session. trades down. We want to see a rally |
| 713 | 02:01:36,870 --> 02:01:39,780 | after New York. Okay after New York |
| 714 | 02:01:45,870 --> 02:01:49,830 | never gives it to you here and you have to wait to the following day on online. |
| 715 | 02:01:56,430 --> 02:02:09,810 | Down move in here. Have you want to see a retracement of some sort? Okay retracement is again New York can be used for position trading guys that can't |
| 716 | 02:02:09,810 --> 02:02:19,320 | be up there in London, whatever you would sell short here. You had to ride out all through the previous I mean sorry, the next London session. So you can't |
| 717 | 02:02:19,320 --> 02:02:28,380 | move your stop. You can't do anything until the low is taken out muscle or taken out then you start managing your trade and your stops. But until then, that's |
| 718 | 02:02:28,410 --> 02:02:40,230 | this is what you have to work with. But using the new york session period separator 11 GMT or 6am New York time you want to see the rally you want that |
| 719 | 02:02:40,230 --> 02:02:50,190 | rally is is what sets you up for a continuation of the existing down set downtrend. Okay, framing your ideas with the London backdrop of what's going on |
| 720 | 02:02:50,190 --> 02:03:03,930 | in London, and the overall trend being lower. But using the 6am New York or 11 GMT window, what what that does afterwards, okay, is sets the framework up for |
| 721 | 02:03:03,930 --> 02:03:12,240 | your trade. Notice that we have the high formed in London here. We didn't get any kind of a rally on this day. So we couldn't do any country. There was no |
| 722 | 02:03:12,240 --> 02:03:27,660 | opportunity there in New York. Nothing really to speak of air either. Again, this is that same day where it could have you DOD is classified as an illusion |
| 723 | 02:03:27,660 --> 02:03:42,300 | that you would have lost money on that. The London session creates the high here. Here's New York at 6am. We see a rally the rally up to what old support |
| 724 | 02:03:42,300 --> 02:03:47,220 | broken becomes what resistance. Okay. |
| 725 | 02:04:00,780 --> 02:04:17,520 | Hi, today in London, New York. You want to see what a rally after 6am or 11 GMT, there's a rally into old resistance. So you have a five minute optimal trade |
| 726 | 02:04:17,520 --> 02:04:31,530 | entry in here you could have scaled into even with smaller risk but you're also playing up against this old low using the bodies of the candles right there. |
| 727 | 02:04:32,370 --> 02:04:42,990 | Okay, so you took out an old low broke through it came back fine as us support broken turn resistance and we had another trade through and even blew through it |
| 728 | 02:04:42,990 --> 02:04:51,510 | just a little bit until nice of them. Nice they were about doing that. Right there's the highs that are equal. Now I told you the best moves occur after the |
| 729 | 02:04:51,510 --> 02:05:03,990 | stop read stops gonna be read above that or at that tie down and goes okay. And this is in the Donald Trump's of summer guys, and this is August. This I mean, |
| 730 | 02:05:04,440 --> 02:05:14,910 | not August starting in July, July and August really, really crummiest in terms of volatility, it's really nasty in terms of cleanness in terms of where price |
| 731 | 02:05:14,910 --> 02:05:26,730 | can go perfectly in turn around. That's why a lot of weight is mainly placed on the daily and even weekly charts really, because they don't give you the |
| 732 | 02:05:26,790 --> 02:05:37,830 | framework that you need to have for these large institutions to be behind your trades. So while we basically looked at targeting time of day power, three Judah |
| 733 | 02:05:37,830 --> 02:05:49,080 | swings how to fly with both not only the New York session, but the London session as well. We talked about the the mapping aspect of putting the boxes on |
| 734 | 02:05:49,110 --> 02:05:58,440 | your chart, like we have here, this orange box and what it means, okay, and again, it's to bracket out a pocket of price action, that the higher timeframes |
| 735 | 02:05:58,470 --> 02:06:08,940 | are telling us, the direction is most likely going to be. And in this case, we mapped out that it was going lower. So while we're in the intraday perspective, |
| 736 | 02:06:09,330 --> 02:06:18,810 | we are cognizant of the lower timeframe, I'm sorry, the higher timeframes moving lower. So we want to be more focused in on finding sell scenarios at specific |
| 737 | 02:06:18,810 --> 02:06:32,580 | times of the day. with specific, you know, reoccurring themes that we there be the apple trading sheet or the turtle suit. It would be advantageous for you to |
| 738 | 02:06:32,730 --> 02:06:42,330 | study market profiling to a great degree. And I mean by that is markets move from consolidation, to trend to reversal, okay, there's only three things that |
| 739 | 02:06:42,330 --> 02:06:52,170 | can happen. The markets either go sideways in a range, or it's going to trend and break out basically, or once again, once it hits a resistance or support of |
| 740 | 02:06:52,170 --> 02:07:01,560 | greater measure, it'll reverse near the only three things that can happen with price. It's either going sideways, it's going up, or it's going down and based |
| 741 | 02:07:01,560 --> 02:07:14,400 | on the three primary profiles, which is consolidation, which is range bound, okay? And you see that here, here is consolidation. Okay, reversal, trend |
| 742 | 02:07:16,140 --> 02:07:17,040 | consolidation. |
| 743 | 02:07:25,560 --> 02:07:41,760 | Here, we have a reversal, old high sticking out, reversal. So we're in consolidation, reversal, trade, lower trending, consolidation, trending, |
| 744 | 02:07:41,790 --> 02:07:54,690 | reversal, consolidation, trending, reversal, consolidating, trending, consolidating, |
| 745 | 02:07:56,070 --> 02:07:56,790 | reversal, |
| 746 | 02:07:59,130 --> 02:08:10,020 | consolidating, trending, if you only want to call that now we're in consolidation again, okay, so by understanding where we're at in the cycle, and |
| 747 | 02:08:10,020 --> 02:08:19,740 | there's no real repeating, consolidation, trend reversal, okay. But it does go from consolidation to trend, that before you see a trend, there's a |
| 748 | 02:08:19,740 --> 02:08:28,860 | consolidation. And inside the consolidation is where all the Smart Money accumulation is being done, whether it be buying and selling. So hopefully, this |
| 749 | 02:08:28,860 --> 02:08:39,960 | has been insightful to you guys. Obviously, understanding seasonal tendencies and honestly, if you if you do a search on more research, and that's N o r e, he |
| 750 | 02:08:39,960 --> 02:08:50,340 | has, in my opinion, the best seasonal tendency stuff there is. But you can pull up seasonal tendency, graphs on every everything from commodities, to currencies |
| 751 | 02:08:50,340 --> 02:08:58,950 | and searching oil, if you're trading crude oil, gold, silver, all that stuff, he has all that stuff. And if you just Google it on the internet, you can find all |
| 752 | 02:08:58,950 --> 02:09:08,460 | that stuff. But applying seasonal tendencies to you the higher timeframes as well kind of gets you in set for when there's a likely buy or sell, forget to |
| 753 | 02:09:08,850 --> 02:09:18,330 | come under way, a lot, a lot of my longer term analysis where I've called major highs and lows, and where they're most likely gonna form and then move into a |
| 754 | 02:09:18,330 --> 02:09:27,390 | new buying opportunity or selling opportunity that's really hinged on the CIT data, and seasonal seasonal tendencies. with higher level support resistance. |
| 755 | 02:09:27,390 --> 02:09:38,100 | That's all it is, guys, that's really all it is. And by having these tools combined together, applying them will give you a huge edge that just the retail |
| 756 | 02:09:38,100 --> 02:09:47,970 | traders just simply don't even exist in terms of you know, they don't even know this is this level of precision is available. Okay. And when we go into the |
| 757 | 02:09:47,970 --> 02:09:57,990 | fall, and we trade through the winter months and early spring, the liquidity that is available, then you'll see because we're gonna be doing it live over my |
| 758 | 02:09:57,990 --> 02:10:05,400 | shoulder and you'll see all these things happening. In advance of setting up the all the moves and what we anticipate seeing and all that stuff, when that when |
| 759 | 02:10:05,400 --> 02:10:14,760 | that happens, it will be a learning experience unlike any other for you. And I'm going to close my teaching out this year with this, because obviously, you know, |
| 760 | 02:10:14,760 --> 02:10:24,660 | as a mentor, I'm retiring, and 2015 will be the beginning of my life away from teaching. But my resources will be still available on the internet, obviously, |
| 761 | 02:10:24,690 --> 02:10:36,450 | my email address, you can always reach me at ICT at the inner circle trader calm and as a backup email address, inner circle trader@gmail.com. And obviously, |
| 762 | 02:10:36,450 --> 02:10:46,530 | with everything that we've shared in here, this is this massive, massive comments, condensing, condensing rather, of all the materials that I've been |
| 763 | 02:10:46,530 --> 02:10:55,320 | sharing over the last four years, there's much, much more that could be done in terms of reviewing and go on and on. But it would take me another four years to |
| 764 | 02:10:55,320 --> 02:11:04,350 | do it, you know me. So we'll be doing a lot of application which will help you get up to speed. But for those that are just now warmed up to my material, this |
| 765 | 02:11:04,350 --> 02:11:12,000 | kind of like is like an overview, if you will a real Crash Course of the things that we do, and we've done for the last four years. And you'll start to see |
| 766 | 02:11:12,030 --> 02:11:18,900 | everything I talked about in real time, it won't be made up, it'll be all hinged on the stuff that's been talked about for the last four years and documented on |
| 767 | 02:11:19,020 --> 02:11:26,610 | what internet I mean, it's not like, you know, just start tweaking these things every every day to make it work better. This is the stuff that's in my |
| 768 | 02:11:26,610 --> 02:11:33,780 | repertoire. It's stuff that I used to trade, it's stuff that other traders have been using for a long period of time to hair familiar with my stuff, and they |
| 769 | 02:11:33,840 --> 02:11:44,220 | are doing very well. So I'm gonna close it here. This ends our series on what every new endorsed buying for our trader wants to know, recap or review. And now |
| 770 | 02:11:44,220 --> 02:11:53,280 | everything going forward will be real time doing the drills, doing all the research projects and all the stuff that's necessary for you. But I'm condensing |
| 771 | 02:11:53,280 --> 02:11:59,670 | what you should be done for six months into just one month. So by the time we're in the second week of September, we'll be in the swing of things with live |
| 772 | 02:11:59,670 --> 02:12:03,900 | trading with a Live account. So with that, guys, we wish you good luck and good trading. |