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3		-ICT: Folks, all right, we are going to cover the need for a
	1	+(% class="hover min" %)
	2	+|1 |00:00:04,620 ~-~-> 00:00:08,460 |ICT: progress in the valley Trust Bank bridge, we have shots fired,
	3	+|2 |00:02:02,370 ~-~-> 00:02:15,150 |folks. All right, we are going to cover the need for a trading plan. If you're new to trading, and you do not have a trading plan, it's hopefully my goal as an
	4	+|3 |00:02:15,150 ~-~-> 00:02:25,590 |end result in this presentation to communicate the need for one, if you already started trading, and you've been having difficulties, and you don't have a
	5	+|4 |00:02:25,590 ~-~-> 00:02:35,550 |trading plan, I could pretty much guarantee if you just put some work into formulating a very clear, concise trading plan, your results would be
	6	+|5 |00:02:35,550 ~-~-> 00:02:44,490 |dramatically different. Because basically having no plan equals emotional driven results, okay, you're not going to have any understanding what to do going to be
	7	+|6 |00:02:44,490 ~-~-> 00:02:53,220 |reacting more than you're anticipating. And that's the stark difference between a professional trader because they do have a detailed organized trading plan.
	8	+|7 |00:02:53,430 ~-~-> 00:03:04,590 |It's well written, it's it's by their trading desk, it's memorized, it's reviewed continuously. And by having such they have an objective and result. And
	9	+|8 |00:03:04,620 ~-~-> 00:03:15,420 |it really is the DNA of a successful trader. So having a trading plan is at the top of your list as far as being a consistently profitable trader. Or the
	10	+|9 |00:03:15,420 ~-~-> 00:03:24,870 |majority of your time, what do you do as a trader? And where is it most spent in terms of time? Well, first, you got to understand that you have to manage your
	11	+|10 |00:03:24,870 ~-~-> 00:03:33,810 |time wisely. Okay, no one's going to manage it for you. So it's important that you understand that the countless hours that you spend in analysis without
	12	+|11 |00:03:33,810 ~-~-> 00:03:40,890 |having a clear objective or premise to it is our actually counterproductive, okay, you feel like you're doing the right thing by saving a lot of time staring
	13	+|12 |00:03:40,890 ~-~-> 00:03:49,410 |at the chart. But unless you have an understanding of exactly what it is you're looking for, you're just wasting your time. You need to spend quality time with
	14	+|13 |00:03:49,410 ~-~-> 00:03:56,640 |the macro economic analysis and higher time frame support resistance levels. I can't stress this enough because most new traders come into the marketplace and
	15	+|14 |00:03:56,640 ~-~-> 00:04:07,440 |they spend too far time in five and 15 minute charts, and maybe even one minute charts, hoping to see some kind of mysterious neon sign saying buy me or sell
	16	+|15 |00:04:07,440 ~-~-> 00:04:18,840 |me. Nothing significant occurs without first leaving telltale signs on a long term basis. That means if there's a significant price move, I guarantee you if
	17	+|16 |00:04:18,840 ~-~-> 00:04:26,820 |you look at the higher timeframe charts, and I'm referring to the monthly, weekly daily for hour and new less than one hour chart, those timeframes, you're
	18	+|17 |00:04:26,820 ~-~-> 00:04:37,590 |gonna have a clue as to what was the catalyst for that move prior to actually unfolding. Follow the interest rates. This is where the majority of your time
	19	+|18 |00:04:37,590 ~-~-> 00:04:45,750 |can be spent. You need to get a feel for what interest rates are trying to do. Are they moving higher or are they moving lower? Keeping track of the overnight
	20	+|19 |00:04:45,750 ~-~-> 00:04:59,880 |lending rate with the banks per country is absolutely significant information and insight you need as a consistent trader. Okay, what's the least important
	21	+|20 |00:04:59,880 ~-~-> 00:05:09,810 |part? And trading? Well, don't focus on the money number one. And unfortunately, we all get into this business for a number of things, okay, but top of the list
	22	+|21 |00:05:09,810 ~-~-> 00:05:18,600 |should be to make money. But while you're trading, your focus should not be on the money. Don't focus on the amount of money that you hope to make, there's no
	23	+|22 |00:05:18,600 ~-~-> 00:05:27,150 |guarantee you're going to make it on every trade. So there's no real point and hoping you just trade the process, trade your plan. And the end result should if
	24	+|23 |00:05:27,150 ~-~-> 00:05:37,620 |you have a well grounded, well formulated trading plan, money will deposit into your account. Do not worry about losses, okay, you're going to have losing
	25	+|24 |00:05:37,620 ~-~-> 00:05:45,420 |trades. If you accept that going in, you won't be demoralized from an okay, every good trader, whether you're professional or not, they have losing streaks.
	26	+|25 |00:05:47,550 ~-~-> 00:05:56,490 |Do not worry about Mr. trades, I'm going to tell you right now, I'm probably miss more winning trades every single week, than more than most of you realize,
	27	+|26 |00:05:56,820 ~-~-> 00:06:04,140 |I don't take a whole lot of trades, I like to cherry pick, I like to take things that are really set up. And if you have that mindset going in much like
	28	+|27 |00:06:04,770 ~-~-> 00:06:14,550 |expecting losses, it's very comforting to know that you're not feeling rushed. And that's a very important characteristic of a professional trader, we aren't
	29	+|28 |00:06:14,550 ~-~-> 00:06:21,780 |rushed to get into the marketplace. You know, we react slowly when trying to make money. And we react fast and quickly when we're trying to preserve our
	30	+|29 |00:06:21,780 ~-~-> 00:06:30,240 |money. That's a very significant paradigm shift that you're going to need if you don't already have that mindset going in. The least important process in trading
	31	+|30 |00:06:30,420 ~-~-> 00:06:39,000 |is the entry signals. And I'll probably shock you right there. But it really is least in terms of significance. If you don't have a macro understanding of
	32	+|31 |00:06:39,000 ~-~-> 00:06:47,340 |what's going on in the marketplace, and the higher timeframe, directional bias, chances are, you're probably going to be wrong more times. And you're right. So
	33	+|32 |00:06:47,940 ~-~-> 00:06:49,230 |it's my
	34	+|33 |00:06:52,260 ~-~-> 00:07:01,890 |goal to really try to drive you to looking at the weekly, the monthly, the daily in the four hour charts. And if you're going to go a little less than four hour,
	35	+|34 |00:07:01,890 ~-~-> 00:07:12,060 |don't go below one hour, but spend most spend most of your time on the weekly and daily, those charts are going to be the most in significance, because that's
	36	+|35 |00:07:12,060 ~-~-> 00:07:23,580 |what the banking levels are determined. Premise and sound basis is paramount. That means you have to have an understanding of what it is that you're doing.
	37	+|36 |00:07:24,120 ~-~-> 00:07:33,960 |You're not just staring blindly at charts, because that's not going to get you anywhere, I guarantee you unless you have a specific pattern or a motive that
	38	+|37 |00:07:34,080 ~-~-> 00:07:42,930 |you use to get into a particular trade. And you hunt that whether you're back testing or walking forward with it. Unless you have that understanding of what
	39	+|38 |00:07:42,930 ~-~-> 00:07:53,580 |it is specifically that you're looking for. You're just basically spinning your wheels and it's my advice not to do that. Keep the focus on the plan and work
	40	+|39 |00:07:53,610 ~-~-> 00:07:56,010 |the trading edge that your method exploits.
	41	+|40 |00:08:01,589 ~-~-> 00:08:10,289 |Alright, the general overview. Ai trading plans are basically taking all the pieces of the puzzle that equate to successful trading and bringing those pieces
	42	+|41 |00:08:10,289 ~-~-> 00:08:23,039 |together. Those pieces could be fundamental data technicals, inter market analysis. All these things go together in terms of building a trading plan.
	43	+|42 |00:08:24,389 ~-~-> 00:08:36,029 |impeccable risk control is the first component to any successful trading plan. Flawless equity management, which is closely tied to risk control is essential
	44	+|43 |00:08:36,029 ~-~-> 00:08:44,189 |to every successful trading plan. You can have all the bells and whistles on your trade monitor, but it means nothing unless you control your money and the
	45	+|44 |00:08:44,189 ~-~-> 00:08:55,409 |risks involved in all your trades. fundamentals at any measure can always assist a trader in trade plan development. inter market analysis is key to a well
	46	+|45 |00:08:55,409 ~-~-> 00:09:04,439 |balanced trading plan. Understanding how all the asset classes tie together and hinge upon the movement of the interest rate markets that is crucial for your
	47	+|46 |00:09:04,439 ~-~-> 00:09:15,449 |long term success and longevity in trading. Technical analysis, and a comprehensive approach to sound tools and concepts is the framework to
	48	+|47 |00:09:15,449 ~-~-> 00:09:26,009 |exercising and train plan. If you don't have a concise list of specific tools that you use for specific times and reasons, you're going to be floating in and
	49	+|48 |00:09:26,009 ~-~-> 00:09:33,599 |out with different oscillators, you're going to use different tools, understand what tools you're going to have and stick to those and understand what it is
	50	+|49 |00:09:33,599 ~-~-> 00:09:44,039 |that those specific specific tools do. And try not to use them for any other reason except for those purposes only. executing a top down analysis with all
	51	+|50 |00:09:44,039 ~-~-> 00:09:51,959 |the above components will deliver optimal results while controlling risk, which is the number one reason why we as traders last as long as we do in this
	52	+|51 |00:09:51,959 ~-~-> 00:09:58,679 |business, we control risk so all the pieces together it begins and ends with the crop control of risk.
	53	+|52 |00:10:40,440 ~-~-> 00:10:48,630 |The paradigm shift. Alright guys, you are not the only predator in the marketplace. I know sometimes when we get these trading plans and trading tools
	54	+|53 |00:10:48,630 ~-~-> 00:10:56,580 |in essence the first time you've ever probably looked at organized structure of how to apply analysis to the marketplace, and you feel kind of like a big shot.
	55	+|54 |00:10:56,730 ~-~-> 00:11:07,470 |And that's normal. That's kind of cool. But do not over estimate the importance of knowing there's other people out there that want your mind to whether you go
	56	+|55 |00:11:07,470 ~-~-> 00:11:17,400 |in confident, or you develop confidence later on. Understand overconfidence is actually counterproductive. overconfidence is actually an invitation for ego,
	57	+|56 |00:11:17,400 ~-~-> 00:11:27,510 |which also allows the input of emotions and that's not what you want your trading. Never assume your well designed trading plan won't hit a losing streak.
	58	+|57 |00:11:27,660 ~-~-> 00:11:36,420 |I'm assuring you that it will. There's no one out there that is immune to it, you're going to have a losing streak, okay. always reflect on your wins as a
	59	+|58 |00:11:36,420 ~-~-> 00:11:46,710 |victory and your losses as a learning opportunity. All learning opportunities that I've experienced in my trading have actually produced greater growth in my
	60	+|59 |00:11:46,710 ~-~-> 00:11:56,490 |development as a trader. So losses are actually a beneficial thing. It will take preparation in advance to weather periods of inevitable drawdown, journal your
	61	+|60 |00:11:56,490 ~-~-> 00:12:04,890 |results, both good and bad. It's important to go back to that journal because periods of drawdown and strings of losses, it will help remind you that these
	62	+|61 |00:12:04,890 ~-~-> 00:12:14,490 |are temporary events and that you do eventually trade out of them. If you control risk and reduce your overall exposure as you continue to take losses. Do
	63	+|62 |00:12:14,490 ~-~-> 00:12:25,170 |not overdrive your trading plan or attempt to trade outside its intended purpose. Do not turn a position trade and K into multiple different timeframe
	64	+|63 |00:12:25,170 ~-~-> 00:12:34,800 |trades. Okay, if you if your analysis suggests it's a position trade, trade it like that, okay. Every great trader has one thing in common, and it's the
	65	+|64 |00:12:34,800 ~-~-> 00:12:44,220 |respect and understanding that the risk will always outweigh the reward unless it is properly managed. It's not about the profits. It's controlling risk.
	66	+|65 |00:12:49,590 ~-~-> 00:13:02,820 |Pack small play big 2% risk or less? Is it really enough? I probably get this question. emailed to me more than any other. Human you get into trading guys,
	67	+|66 |00:13:02,850 ~-~-> 00:13:12,540 |you probably fantasize about going to places like this. And you think you need to risk new 2015 10% of your account to get there. And I can assure you I've
	68	+|67 |00:13:12,540 ~-~-> 00:13:22,650 |been to places like this. And I've done it with 2% risk or many times with less than that. And it's amazing. If you just understand the power of compound
	69	+|68 |00:13:22,650 ~-~-> 00:13:30,870 |interest, you don't need a whole lot of risk exposure to build this wealth. The question will always be in the developing traders mind, how can I make a fortune
	70	+|69 |00:13:30,870 ~-~-> 00:13:37,650 |with so little risk and hopefully by the end of this presentation, you'll see that you don't really need a whole lot of risk. You just need time and
	71	+|70 |00:13:37,650 ~-~-> 00:13:48,480 |consistency. proficient consistent traders focus on the reality that their trading will not be perfect. We are not going in with the mindset expecting our
	72	+|71 |00:13:48,480 ~-~-> 00:13:58,530 |trades to be perfect, okay? We don't even need high accuracy. Okay. But you do need consistently following a trading plan. That's paramount. You have to
	73	+|72 |00:13:58,530 ~-~-> 00:14:12,600 |continuously do that. You can make all the money you ever need risking 2% and many times even less than that portrayed. Wealth is built with time, not
	74	+|73 |00:14:12,600 ~-~-> 00:14:27,420 |excessive risk exposure. Giving realistic goals in focus. Alright guys, you've seen all of the internet gurus and you probably thought I was one like that as
	75	+|74 |00:14:27,420 ~-~-> 00:14:38,820 |well. That promised riches real quick. You're going to get you know 1000 pips every month. Guys, look, don't take the bait. Okay, that is meant for you to
	76	+|75 |00:14:38,820 ~-~-> 00:14:51,150 |lose. Okay, do not buy into that mindset. Your goal is to steadily build your account with little drawdown as humanly possible. You trading is not hinged on
	77	+|76 |00:14:51,150 ~-~-> 00:15:02,250 |the premise. You must hit home run profits, every trade, or even weekly. There's a lot of times I'll have a losing week. There's many times on Have a losing day
	78	+|77 |00:15:02,400 ~-~-> 00:15:13,620 |and then come back from that and be able to recoup it. But I'm not always hitting Win Win Win, win win, and you're not going to either. Your career should
	79	+|78 |00:15:13,620 ~-~-> 00:15:28,770 |be built on a low, yet sufficient baseline target based 1% return or pips per month or week. trading with risk controlled and profiting in net gain of 25 pips
	80	+|79 |00:15:28,770 ~-~-> 00:15:41,490 |per week should be a new traders goal. After consistently harvesting 25 pips per week graduate to targeting 50 pips after 50 pips per week is achieved, aim for
	81	+|80 |00:15:41,490 ~-~-> 00:15:52,890 |75 pips and eventually move beyond that as your experience and tolerance for risk increases. Alright, let's look at a case study here we're gonna look at a
	82	+|81 |00:15:53,820 ~-~-> 00:16:07,230 |trading model that more or less targets and shoots a goal for 25 pips for the week. And we're looking at possibly making 6% return for the month, and we're
	83	+|82 |00:16:07,230 ~-~-> 00:16:18,900 |risking 2% per trade, and 30 PIP stops are used, and the monthly goal only equates to 90 pips for the entire month. Now, if you look at these numbers,
	84	+|83 |00:16:18,930 ~-~-> 00:16:30,360 |okay, this is a spreadsheet so there's going to be a little bit of a rounding issue, but 23 pips, okay, per week, roughly, we'll just call it 25 pips. That
	85	+|84 |00:16:30,360 ~-~-> 00:16:40,470 |would equate to 6% return per month. If you start with 20 $500. In one year, your account goes to over $5,000, which is more than doubling. After two years,
	86	+|85 |00:16:40,470 ~-~-> 00:16:49,290 |it goes to $10,122. Okay, so you see, essentially you're doubling your money every single year, you're only risking 2% and you're only looking for 25 pips
	87	+|86 |00:16:49,290 ~-~-> 00:17:01,110 |per week. Now notice over here we have daily column, okay, this is more or less to stimulate the idea that if you trade on a daily basis and you scalp I don't
	88	+|87 |00:17:01,110 ~-~-> 00:17:10,350 |really teach traders that go in and try to scalp scalp five pips. But just for the sake of argument, we're going to look at you know, every day if you scout
	89	+|88 |00:17:10,350 ~-~-> 00:17:17,430 |five pips that would give you your 25 pips for the week. Obviously, if you trade in the best days of the week, which were Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday,
	90	+|89 |00:17:17,760 ~-~-> 00:17:27,810 |regardless what pair you trade, eight pips per day, three times a week would give you your goal for the week and obviously 11 should be round rough, round up
	91	+|90 |00:17:27,810 ~-~-> 00:17:40,740 |like 12 twice a week would give you your weekly PIP haul. So you can see over time your money is growing steadily. And while it's not a whole lot of money,
	92	+|91 |00:17:41,460 ~-~-> 00:17:48,060 |you got to look at what you're starting with and what you're really aiming for. Okay, and I think 25 pips per week if you're brand new trader is an absolutely
	93	+|92 |00:17:48,090 ~-~-> 00:17:49,530 |wonderful goal to start with.
	94	+|93 |00:17:53,640 ~-~-> 00:18:02,310 |Okay, look at another case studies is 50 pips per week, okay, and we're gonna be targeting 10% per month, so it was the same account 20 $500 now this time we're
	95	+|94 |00:18:02,310 ~-~-> 00:18:15,090 |going to exercise the risk exposure of one and a half, one and a half percent 30 pips per stop, and the monthly goal in terms of pips is 200 pips and the weekly
	96	+|95 |00:18:15,090 ~-~-> 00:18:24,690 |goal is 50 pips per week, and if you trade every day scalping 10 pips for today, equates to 50 pips. And three times Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday looking for
	97	+|96 |00:18:24,690 ~-~-> 00:18:40,290 |17 pips per day or two times for the week at 25 pips per trade. The first year your account would move to $7,846 and then in second year, it would be at
	98	+|97 |00:18:40,290 ~-~-> 00:18:54,060 |$24,624 not bad and you're not really hitting homeruns yet guys, are you it's only 50 pips. Okay, we've got a case study where we're looking for 75 pips per
	99	+|98 |00:18:54,060 ~-~-> 00:19:05,340 |week. Now I can tell you, you can build a career on this, okay. 75 pips is absolutely astonishing if you use it the right way. 10% per month, risking only
	100	+|99 |00:19:05,340 ~-~-> 00:19:17,250 |1% per trade using a 30 PIP stop loss, the goal 300 pips 75 pips per week, if you day trade every single day 15 pips would be your goal 25 if you're trading
	101	+|100 |00:19:17,250 ~-~-> 00:19:31,770 |three times per week and 38 pips twice a week with equate to your goal, and in one year, your 20 $500 would essentially grow to 7846 and again, $24,624.
	102	+|101 |00:19:37,950 ~-~-> 00:19:51,630 |Modular thinking, steady progress. Now small consistency can still surprise you. It takes an exponential mindset, little things over a period of time equals big
	103	+|102 |00:19:51,630 ~-~-> 00:20:02,250 |results. Building your trading plan flexibility, you're not always going to see it on a timeline that you want You might have a weekly goal that may require
	104	+|103 |00:20:02,250 ~-~-> 00:20:12,990 |shorter term day trades or scalps to achieve. Do not force yourself into hunting or believing you need to make your goals daily and or weekly. Your weekly goals
	105	+|104 |00:20:12,990 ~-~-> 00:20:24,210 |might fall short a week or two, but still might be met in the course of the same month, it may just average out guys. Your monthly goal might average out over
	106	+|105 |00:20:24,210 ~-~-> 00:20:37,110 |the quarter or over the entire year. Don't be so rigid and allow the market to pay you when and how it will. Your goals might fall short of your forecast and
	107	+|106 |00:20:37,110 ~-~-> 00:20:50,850 |hopes. However, do not be disappointed if this occurs, you will still be heading in the right direction. And that's really what matters. Success without homeruns
	108	+|107 |00:20:50,880 ~-~-> 00:21:03,510 |Is it possible? Well, let's look at this. This is kind of lofty I met. But this is what could happen 20% per month. And it's rather impressive analysis. That's
	109	+|108 |00:21:03,510 ~-~-> 00:21:12,930 |another debt you many fantasize about. We're going to be risking 2% per trade maximum. And now we have an understanding what we knew using our trading plan
	110	+|109 |00:21:12,930 ~-~-> 00:21:22,440 |and we have some consistency. We understand how to use a lower timeframe so we can use now 20 pips stop losses. The monthly goal is 200 pips still in terms of
	111	+|110 |00:21:22,470 ~-~-> 00:21:32,190 |many expectations of traders, that's very, very modest, weekly PIP goal 50 pips, and if you break that down, it could be done over a course of everyday 10 pips,
	112	+|111 |00:21:32,520 ~-~-> 00:21:46,800 |three times a week is 17 pips and 25 times two per week 20 $500 in one year grows to $22,290. And in two years, it grows to 198,000. And in 34 months, it
	113	+|112 |00:21:46,800 ~-~-> 00:21:51,210 |grows to what everyone fantasizes about in trading the $1 million mark,
	114	+|113 |00:21:58,110 ~-~-> 00:22:06,330 |keep something, pay yourself, you have to learn to be methodical about taking first profit guys, no one's going to pay you, your broker is not going to take
	115	+|114 |00:22:06,330 ~-~-> 00:22:13,710 |first profit for you, they're not gonna scout some of your position and make sure you get some profit out of a winning trade. It's your responsibility. So
	116	+|115 |00:22:13,710 ~-~-> 00:22:25,050 |before taking any trade, it's crucial for you to know at what level you will take first profit and then start to reduce or remove risk altogether. Limiting
	117	+|116 |00:22:25,050 ~-~-> 00:22:35,070 |risk after taking half of your original position off will remove emotional and psychological pressures you may feel while the position is open. If you take
	118	+|117 |00:22:35,070 ~-~-> 00:22:44,610 |first profit, that will absolutely remove all of the rush for you to be able to close the trade because how many times you've been in a trade, even a demo
	119	+|118 |00:22:44,610 ~-~-> 00:22:51,060 |account if you guys are new, and you see a profit, and you just want to close it out because you just want to see it in your account as registering as a profit.
	120	+|119 |00:22:51,240 ~-~-> 00:22:58,620 |Okay, when when you take some off and you split your position in half, take some of it off and move your stop to break even or reduce it to half of what your
	121	+|120 |00:22:58,710 ~-~-> 00:23:09,630 |original profit was. That's a wonderful position to be in because now no matter what you either make half of your first positions profit potential when it's
	122	+|121 |00:23:09,630 ~-~-> 00:23:20,280 |first profit, or you stop at an event and you collect your first you first profit and that was it. Taking first profit at a predetermined level will assist
	123	+|122 |00:23:20,280 ~-~-> 00:23:28,410 |in building confidence and removes the sting of the trade losing should it reverse on you and stop you out of breakeven. How many times you had a winning
	124	+|123 |00:23:28,410 ~-~-> 00:23:37,020 |trade and then go against you and become a losing trade? Okay, I know that's like, I'm not immune to that I experienced that. The greatest thing you can do
	125	+|124 |00:23:37,020 ~-~-> 00:23:48,780 |is learn to take profits take first profit and scale. Continuing our theme success without homeruns Now let's take a look at an example. Let's assume for a
	126	+|125 |00:23:48,780 ~-~-> 00:24:02,010 |moment we are a trader that now uses two positions. Okay, to enter on a trade. In other words, we take a maximum of 2% risk and we split it in half. The first
	127	+|126 |00:24:02,010 ~-~-> 00:24:13,290 |portion of our trade we take first profit at 30 pips, we're going to be risking 20 pips, so we're already risking 1.5 to one reward the risk. Okay, so we're
	128	+|127 |00:24:13,290 ~-~-> 00:24:22,590 |making a little bit more than what we're risking for the initial first profit. And if we just did that alone in the second portion of our trade, we moved to
	129	+|128 |00:24:22,590 ~-~-> 00:24:33,180 |break even and it stops out every single time we trade for the entire year, our account would still double okay. Risking 1% it would equate to 6% so that's
	130	+|129 |00:24:33,180 ~-~-> 00:24:45,990 |still good. But now let's look what happens if we allow the second portion of our trade to run. What happens if the second portion captures the average daily
	131	+|130 |00:24:45,990 ~-~-> 00:24:57,900 |range? Now the average daily range for this sake of argument we're just going to use as 100 pips. Now that would equate to if you just did this once per week,
	132	+|131 |00:24:57,960 ~-~-> 00:25:06,570 |okay, now don't look at the daily three Once for a week or twice a week numbers, we'll block that out here. But the weekly number that 100 that's going to more
	133	+|132 |00:25:06,570 ~-~-> 00:25:18,720 |or less equate to one solid trade for the week where you nail down one average daily range or collect 100 pips. In other words in terms of intraday trade. That
	134	+|133 |00:25:18,720 ~-~-> 00:25:38,880 |would equate to 20%. Now think 20% plus 6%, what are you making? We'll get that in a moment. But if we able to do this, our money 1% risk grows exponentially.
	135	+|134 |00:25:42,510 ~-~-> 00:25:54,510 |Now taking both of those examples together, and assuming ideal scenarios at the end, or both are profitable, that would equate to about 26% return your 20 $500
	136	+|135 |00:25:54,510 ~-~-> 00:26:06,780 |would grow to $40,000 in one year. And 640,000 in two years. Notice that you're really not even risking more than 320 average, per Pip.
	137	+|136 |00:26:47,400 ~-~-> 00:26:54,570 |Alright guys, interest rates. That is the market's driving force. Okay, if you've never learned about interest rates, you're gonna learn a little bit of
	138	+|137 |00:26:54,570 ~-~-> 00:27:04,290 |that in this presentation. But what makes the markets go around, whether it be stocks, commodities, forex, it's all interest rates, need to get to know the
	139	+|138 |00:27:04,290 ~-~-> 00:27:15,330 |interest rate market, okay, because that will be the key to you unlocking the mind. The entire global markets are interconnected, and they spin on the
	140	+|139 |00:27:15,330 ~-~-> 00:27:25,530 |gyrations in the interest rate market. Each country we trade currencies with has their own interest rates, and thus these rates influence the demand or
	141	+|140 |00:27:25,530 ~-~-> 00:27:39,270 |disenchantment with its own currency. The market will always seek yield, and the higher the yield, the bigger the demand on average. There are several types of
	142	+|141 |00:27:39,270 ~-~-> 00:27:50,430 |interest rates that traders can track and utilize to determine a trade idea. Understanding how they trade and the yields will make long term trends easier to
	143	+|142 |00:27:50,430 ~-~-> 00:28:06,060 |determine. Interest Rate spreads and differentials. I guess you need to track the country's overnight lending rates. Okay, that's an it's one of the core
	144	+|143 |00:28:06,060 ~-~-> 00:28:17,550 |principles to having long term trend analysis. And if you just Google any country and look for historical data, you can get that keep a spreadsheet. And
	145	+|144 |00:28:17,820 ~-~-> 00:28:28,140 |you can do a whole lot with that information. It's not my goal to do that here. You can find sources on the internet to actually do these for you. But the
	146	+|145 |00:28:28,140 ~-~-> 00:28:37,740 |currency markets date more or less trend on long term basis based on interest rates. And understanding which country has higher interest rates and which have
	147	+|146 |00:28:37,740 ~-~-> 00:28:47,040 |lower rates can be a differential play or carry trade. And not only can you trade profit by directional bias into trading, but it also could be paid
	148	+|147 |00:28:47,040 ~-~-> 00:28:58,020 |interest on top of that. If the country sees lower interest rates, this will weaken the base currency. At the current On the contrary, if the rates are
	149	+|148 |00:28:58,020 ~-~-> 00:29:12,900 |increasing, this will prop up the country's currency. million dollar futures insights. Yes, seasonal tendencies. Now, some of you folks have already been
	150	+|149 |00:29:12,900 ~-~-> 00:29:24,900 |introduced to this graph. This is the British Pound seasonal tendency. This is a chart that I've had held dear to me for many years since 1995. I got this from
	151	+|150 |00:29:24,930 ~-~-> 00:29:39,600 |Larry Williams course. And it was among other seasonal tendencies, but because I've grown to trade the British Pound more than any other pair. This season
	152	+|151 |00:29:39,600 ~-~-> 00:29:49,620 |Tennessee chart is kind of like it gives you like a macro roadmap of what should transpire. Now, one of the most impressive concepts you can learn is the nature
	153	+|152 |00:29:49,620 ~-~-> 00:29:59,490 |of seasonal tendencies in the marketplace. The commodity market is one such market that has a very cyclical seasonal tendencies that have an uncanny ability
	154	+|153 |00:29:59,490 ~-~-> 00:30:09,690 |to forecast Major price swings. Now I have used seasonal tendencies for nearly 20 years, and they still amaze me. One such seasonal tendency is the British
	155	+|154 |00:30:09,690 ~-~-> 00:30:23,370 |pound to make a major low in February to March, June, September, October in December, and major highs in April to May. This is also seen in stocks as well.
	156	+|155 |00:30:30,360 ~-~-> 00:30:39,480 |Look at the comparison of the British pound. And since we've already learned that the interest rate market is what more or less pushes the markets all
	157	+|156 |00:30:39,480 ~-~-> 00:30:50,460 |around. We're gonna look at the US Treasuries. Yes, it does have a seasonal tendency. Now, I want to draw your attention to the fact that usually in April
	158	+|157 |00:30:50,460 ~-~-> 00:31:01,140 |and May, if you look at the British Pound chart on the left, you can see that there's a red line and a blue line. Okay. And what that is, is is measuring the
	159	+|158 |00:31:01,140 ~-~-> 00:31:12,210 |Bush years and the bearish years together to get a composite index. And the blue line is the 25 year historical data. And the red line is a 15 year historical
	160	+|159 |00:31:12,210 ~-~-> 00:31:27,900 |data. So you can see over overall, basically the seasonal tendencies pretty solid, it usually makes a rally of some kind late February, early March, and
	161	+|160 |00:31:27,900 ~-~-> 00:31:40,290 |trades up into the April May time period where it makes a significant Hein and trades down into the June timeframe. Well, if the bonds are inverse, okay, now
	162	+|161 |00:31:40,290 ~-~-> 00:31:51,330 |onwards, is currencies go down the bond market or the futures market will go up. And while the bonds go up, the yield is inverted. So the yield would be going
	163	+|162 |00:31:51,330 ~-~-> 00:32:02,520 |down while the bond goes up. And for instance, let's look at the April May time period on the bond. And you can see that it has seasonal tendency to rally that
	164	+|163 |00:32:02,520 ~-~-> 00:32:13,140 |would indicate that interest rates would be going down. Okay. Now, if interest rates are going down, that would drive what currencies lower, there won't be any
	165	+|164 |00:32:13,140 ~-~-> 00:32:23,070 |demand. So what would they be doing, it'll be a flight to quality, that will rally the dollar. Okay. And that would be essentially a risk off scenario. Now
	166	+|165 |00:32:23,070 ~-~-> 00:32:35,790 |look at January and February. Okay, in the bond market, we see the bonds are sliding down into that April May time period. That means that interest rates
	167	+|166 |00:32:35,820 ~-~-> 00:32:45,420 |would be increasing. Now, if interest rates are increasing, that's going to have demand for foreign currency. And it'll be a risk on scenario, the dollar index
	168	+|167 |00:32:45,630 ~-~-> 00:32:58,320 |will be falling at that time period. Okay, look at January February time period. And you can see where in the 15 year basis, it was making lows and even in a 25
	169	+|168 |00:32:58,320 ~-~-> 00:33:07,920 |year basis, it was making lows where it did rally up in essentially around the march time period, it got in sync in May, it's low and then it'll trade up into
	170	+|169 |00:33:07,920 ~-~-> 00:33:16,980 |that spring time period making a high so study these charts and you can see there there's a huge advantage of having insight like this, because it can put
	171	+|170 |00:33:16,980 ~-~-> 00:33:31,710 |you on on track to finding a long term trend and this waiting for interest rates to get in sync with this co2 and commercial trends. tracking the Smart Money
	172	+|171 |00:33:33,360 ~-~-> 00:33:42,660 |Okay, guys, you've probably seen this a few times in my other tutorials, but mainly you want to be looking at higher timeframe charts and you want to spend
	173	+|172 |00:33:42,660 ~-~-> 00:33:50,730 |some time analyzing the net positions of the large commercial traders. You want to be looking at the trend where their net positions are moving, are they
	174	+|173 |00:33:50,730 ~-~-> 00:34:03,450 |continuously moving higher, lower, higher, lower overall bearish or bullish and lower is already swinging, bullish above the baseline zero line okay during
	175	+|174 |00:34:03,480 ~-~-> 00:34:11,520 |uptrend or are they doing that during a downtrend? Okay. And what we're doing we're looking at the higher time frame weekly chart and determine if the price
	176	+|175 |00:34:11,520 ~-~-> 00:34:21,270 |is going higher. And if it is, you won't be waiting for the commercials to be net long or extremely lightening up on their net short positions because that
	177	+|176 |00:34:21,270 ~-~-> 00:34:32,400 |would equate to a bullish scenario. The trend on the weekly chart and the swings from net long to net short are very easy to spot and determine the long to
	178	+|177 |00:34:32,400 ~-~-> 00:34:42,090 |intermediate term trends or direction. Looking for trades in this trend or directional bias will further increase your odds of capturing trades with large
	179	+|178 |00:34:42,090 ~-~-> 00:34:57,990 |institutional sponsorship behind the moves. trading the news All right, I basically look at trading the news or news releases as volatility injections.
	180	+|179 |00:34:58,380 ~-~-> 00:35:08,850 |Okay. Don't fear news, but I certainly respect it. There are certain reports and events that I more or less will step outside of and more trade. But one of the
	181	+|180 |00:35:08,850 ~-~-> 00:35:17,760 |most difficult ways to trade the markets is to try to trade the news releases themselves. The internet is littered with so called robots or programs designed
	182	+|181 |00:35:17,760 ~-~-> 00:35:26,370 |to quickly give you trading profits on a knee jerk reactions to the news. To me, this is pure and simple gambling.
	183	+|182 |00:35:27,960 ~-~-> 00:35:37,560 |We can never know for sure what the numbers will be in the reports and the guests is just ridiculous. However, we can wait for the release and watch the
	184	+|183 |00:35:37,560 ~-~-> 00:35:49,080 |reaction in many times a signal will form shortly after the release. Many times counter direction to the intended news hawks use news releases for injections
	185	+|184 |00:35:49,080 ~-~-> 00:35:54,240 |and volatility and fuel trade ideas based on price action.
	186	+|185 |00:35:59,640 ~-~-> 00:36:13,800 |Key market moving indicators key economic releases, okay, we're gonna be looking at the US market, the UK market and the German market. Okay, we're gonna start
	187	+|186 |00:36:13,800 ~-~-> 00:36:27,480 |with the UK, the British Pound daily rate decision, retail sales, consumer prices, claimant count, GDP and industrial production. Those are reports that I
	188	+|187 |00:36:27,480 ~-~-> 00:36:38,880 |have on my calendar times when they're gonna come out. And I will absolutely be aware of these and I will be more or less looking for trades to either be
	189	+|188 |00:36:38,880 ~-~-> 00:36:47,910 |propelled in the direction that I've been prior to that report or I'll be looking for a signal to generate shortly after one of these reports are
	190	+|189 |00:36:47,910 ~-~-> 00:36:48,450 |released.
	191	+|190 |00:36:56,460 ~-~-> 00:37:07,350 |by the US dollar we're gonna get the North America market Federal Reserve rates, retail sales, consumer and producer prices, non farm payroll I avoid that I do
	192	+|191 |00:37:07,350 ~-~-> 00:37:17,100 |not touch it. Gross Domestic Product GDP trade balance consumer confidence reports and service and manufacturing ICM. You want to note these as well
	193	+|192 |00:37:17,100 ~-~-> 00:37:21,750 |because all of your crosses with the dollar will be impacted by this as well.
	194	+|193 |00:37:31,050 ~-~-> 00:37:41,460 |Get the German market get the euros okay rate decision German IFO German unemployment, German consumer prices, German GDP and manufacturing and services
	195	+|194 |00:37:41,460 ~-~-> 00:37:49,710 |sector PMI. You want to have these on your calendar when time they're gonna be released. And be aware of these because these absolutely will move the market
	196	+|195 |00:37:49,740 ~-~-> 00:38:06,990 |considerably. I plan for news impact. You have to have an awareness of your economic calendar folks. Now, there are a few resources that you can use to
	197	+|196 |00:38:06,990 ~-~-> 00:38:21,330 |determine when high impact news will release and hit the market. Number one, obviously baby pips coms calendar, forex factory comm calendar. And you actually
	198	+|197 |00:38:21,330 ~-~-> 00:38:31,980 |Google econo day calendars. You can find some at Bloomberg, and a few other resources, but they have a very good format. I like that they're very user
	199	+|198 |00:38:31,980 ~-~-> 00:38:42,690 |friendly. Now for more information on this topic, and if you have any more interest on interest rates, I would recommend that Chris Lori's inside the banks
	200	+|199 |00:38:42,690 ~-~-> 00:38:56,790 |webinar. I purchased this A number of years ago. And I was very impressed with his presentation on the banking level in terms of interest rates and how they
	201	+|200 |00:38:56,790 ~-~-> 00:39:11,130 |move and propel the marketplace. So if this isn't, if this isn't, more or less, get to the understand that you're looking for. I would counsel you to do a
	202	+|201 |00:39:11,130 ~-~-> 00:39:18,180 |little investment on your career. And it's not much money at all, but it absolutely is a wonderful resource. He does a really good job in that webinar.
	203	+|202 |00:39:19,140 ~-~-> 00:39:31,620 |You can reach Chris Laurie at Chris laurie.com. And you can get his webinar from his website. He's actually the only one that I recommend any folks buy material
	204	+|203 |00:39:31,620 ~-~-> 00:39:42,570 |from I have everything but is Aussie yen course, and I just don't trade yen crosses, otherwise, I probably would have bought that as well. He does a really
	205	+|204 |00:39:42,570 ~-~-> 00:39:51,360 |good job of teaching. He's very, very interested in your success. And that separates him as far as my concern from all the other folks out there and so
	206	+|205 |00:39:51,750 ~-~-> 00:39:53,400 |yeah, kudos to him.
	207	+|206 |00:40:33,150 ~-~-> 00:40:41,190 |Alright guys, 30 year treasuries and tea notes. Okay, now some of my best concepts are found in my early days as a futures trader and the bond market is a
	208	+|207 |00:40:41,190 ~-~-> 00:40:49,710 |big market. And it provides so much insight and leading information. Now, I don't trade bonds anymore, but I absolutely monitor the futures on a daily
	209	+|208 |00:40:49,710 ~-~-> 00:40:57,480 |basis. This market can tell you everything you need to know in any market asset class, if you understand it, the scope of the bond market is not the objective
	210	+|209 |00:40:57,480 ~-~-> 00:41:10,080 |here. But we will use it to discover some rather impressive techniques to ferret out some blockbuster trades. 10 year Treasury notes, okay, much like the 30 year
	211	+|210 |00:41:10,080 ~-~-> 00:41:21,690 |treasury bond, I used these early on in my career as a futures trader. And there's a little caveat to understand the bond market, whenever you see the
	212	+|211 |00:41:21,690 ~-~-> 00:41:33,690 |price chart on the futures when they rally up, they will have an inverse relationship. In other words, as the price data goes higher, the yield will
	213	+|212 |00:41:33,690 ~-~-> 00:41:43,950 |actually be going down. So you have to have that in your mind. Now, since I trade the cable and the fiber exclusively, you know, I trade tracking the German
	214	+|213 |00:41:43,950 ~-~-> 00:41:58,140 |10 year bond as well. The five year Treasury note much like the 10 year and 30 year and when price runs up on the contract price on the futures market, the
	215	+|214 |00:41:58,170 ~-~-> 00:42:06,480 |yield will be basically decreasing are dropping. And obviously, if the chart would be dropping on the futures, that would mean the yield would be increasing
	216	+|215 |00:42:06,480 ~-~-> 00:42:19,440 |as well. And much like the 10 year I also track the five year German bond as well. And two year Treasury note much like the five year and 10 year I track
	217	+|216 |00:42:19,500 ~-~-> 00:42:30,090 |that on a German basis as well. And by having any understanding of all three of those, we can find some pretty neat things we're going to learn about here
	218	+|217 |00:42:30,090 ~-~-> 00:42:44,100 |shortly. Obviously goes without saying the US Dollar index i like daily FX comm if you go to the net Dania charting now do not go to net dania.com Okay, it's
	219	+|218 |00:42:44,100 ~-~-> 00:42:56,310 |very important. Go to daily FX calm and use the net Dania charting, it's free. Okay, um, just open up a US Dollar Index chart. And it'll give you your what I
	220	+|219 |00:42:56,310 ~-~-> 00:43:09,450 |like to see in terms of the US Dollar Index. I look at the cash basis also. And the chart to the right here. This is the futures chart of the United States
	221	+|220 |00:43:09,450 ~-~-> 00:43:21,270 |Dollar Index. If you like these types of charts, and you want to subscribe to them, it's not very expensive, or things like $25 a month, but you can get that
	222	+|221 |00:43:21,270 ~-~-> 00:43:31,050 |at price charts calm. You don't need to pay for futures charts, but I do prefer this format because I'm used to reading them since 1990s. I just grown
	223	+|222 |00:43:31,050 ~-~-> 00:43:40,680 |accustomed to having them in my repertoire. Now I like to use SMT concepts to spot diverging highs and lows between the US dx and relative price points in the
	224	+|223 |00:43:40,680 ~-~-> 00:43:55,560 |fiber and cable. And you knew that as my USD x SMT. And I look for the bond and USD x SMT as well. Major stock market indices, okay, the major stock market
	225	+|224 |00:43:55,560 ~-~-> 00:44:03,480 |indices are one of my favorite tools to gauge the long term price swings. If we are failing at highs on the daily charts as we see here in the image to the
	226	+|225 |00:44:03,480 ~-~-> 00:44:13,290 |right, this suggests a possible risk off scenario. Expect weaker stock prices and possibly foreign currencies. The US Dollar index will confirm this with a
	227	+|226 |00:44:13,290 ~-~-> 00:44:23,130 |rally at support. At the same juncture. simply reverse for risk on scenarios. The markets as a whole are interconnected and it pays to monitor them and hunt
	228	+|227 |00:44:23,160 ~-~-> 00:44:35,610 |for clues. The CRB Commodity Index. Okay, now I usually watch this on the cash basis. And you can get that from the price charts calm. I'm sure I could do a
	229	+|228 |00:44:35,610 ~-~-> 00:44:42,870 |google you'll probably find that as well. But again, this really like this. This chart. I think it's real crisp, and we print them out. There's nothing like
	230	+|229 |00:44:42,870 ~-~-> 00:44:51,540 |printing out charts and marking them up by hand. I'm like a Flintstone caveman. I like being able to carve up some notes and draw my charts. You know, I like
	231	+|230 |00:44:51,540 ~-~-> 00:44:59,070 |sharing with you guys electronically. But you know, if it's going to be a matter of preference, I would love to have you printed charts every single day. That's
	232	+|231 |00:44:59,100 ~-~-> 00:45:10,650 |this is my My opinion really, now I like the CRB index, because it usually has a inverse relationship to Dollar Index. And I like to confirm a swing higher in
	233	+|232 |00:45:10,650 ~-~-> 00:45:21,270 |dollar with shorting fiber and or cable with a CRB decline. Now the CRB index tends to be a little bit early and can one possible long term shifts in the
	234	+|233 |00:45:21,270 ~-~-> 00:45:27,690 |trend. It's a dynamite tool to use for major market analysis and pinning down long to intermediate term directional bias.
	235	+|234 |00:45:30,600 ~-~-> 00:45:39,150 |Alright, well in gold now, like looking at these two markets, I don't trade them. But I'd like to use them as barometers more or less to see if there's risk
	236	+|235 |00:45:39,150 ~-~-> 00:45:49,890 |on or risk off scenarios underway. And basically, you want to be looking at the same way that you foreign currencies and CRB all those markets should be moving
	237	+|236 |00:45:49,890 ~-~-> 00:45:51,060 |in tandem with both.
	238	+|237 |00:45:58,200 ~-~-> 00:46:11,250 |Okay, we're looking at the T note yields, okay, these are going to be the two year, five year and 10 year. And you can look at the legend up here to determine
	239	+|238 |00:46:11,490 ~-~-> 00:46:25,200 |which is which as we go through. And what I'm highlighting here is when there is a divergence between these yields. Okay, these are t note yields. And this line
	240	+|239 |00:46:25,200 ~-~-> 00:46:35,790 |is not the T note price, it's the actual t note yield. So the yield is actually invert is an inversion of the futures charts price of the Tina. Okay, so I kind
	241	+|240 |00:46:35,790 ~-~-> 00:46:48,510 |of monitor both. But the yield when you monitor it like this, it will basically mirror what foreign currencies should be doing. In other words, as the yields
	242	+|241 |00:46:48,510 ~-~-> 00:46:59,460 |were increasing here, that would have been bullish for foreign currency. And contrary as the yields drop, that would be bearish for foreign currencies, okay.
	243	+|242 |00:46:59,910 ~-~-> 00:47:10,710 |You see these confirmations in your technicals on your charts. In other words, if there's a buy signal for foreign currencies and in your daily charts or
	244	+|243 |00:47:11,490 ~-~-> 00:47:22,770 |respective timeframes that you trade, and there is a sell signal being confirmed in the US dollar, that is a confirmation that you probably got, you know, a good
	245	+|244 |00:47:22,800 ~-~-> 00:47:32,580 |probability of a nice swing for your respective timeframe. Now, what we're referring to here is a daily basis, this is really going to give you a buy,
	246	+|245 |00:47:32,790 ~-~-> 00:47:45,630 |program or sell program. Okay, this is the beginnings of a buy program. This is the termination of a buy program, and a beginning of a sell program. Now the
	247	+|246 |00:47:45,630 ~-~-> 00:47:55,170 |main thing I want you to focus on is that there's typically a three or four month cycle, okay, it's like almost like a quarterly effect that takes place in
	248	+|247 |00:47:55,200 ~-~-> 00:48:04,380 |the yields. And it's based basically on interest rates, and macroeconomics and things of that nature. But I'm not going to bore you with that here. But just
	249	+|248 |00:48:04,380 ~-~-> 00:48:13,860 |basically, if you look at the charts, and on historical perspective, you'll see that that is, in fact, what happens on the average. Now we're going to do is
	250	+|249 |00:48:13,860 ~-~-> 00:48:28,770 |we're going to talk about at the time of this recording, this is June 2012. And what I'm looking at is trying to go over why we saw the precipitous slide in the
	251	+|250 |00:48:28,800 ~-~-> 00:48:42,780 |foreign currency market, namely the British pound and the Euro, USD pairs, cable and fiber. And we're gonna look at how that relates to these yields here. Okay.
	252	+|251 |00:48:42,780 ~-~-> 00:48:52,050 |And what we're looking at, again, on this chart is the United States 10 year, United States five year and the United States, two year t notes. Okay. And
	253	+|252 |00:48:52,050 ~-~-> 00:49:02,430 |again, these are D yields. And basically, what you're looking for is at specific times, seasonally, and quarterly, there will be a divergence that posts in these
	254	+|253 |00:49:02,430 ~-~-> 00:49:12,930 |yields. And that looks like this. We have, it may be a little difficult to see I understand but the orange line here, which is the two year the high made back
	255	+|254 |00:49:12,930 ~-~-> 00:49:35,910 |here is lower than the high made in March, April time period. Okay, we're actually in March 19. The high here on the 10 year was just about equal. And
	256	+|255 |00:49:36,540 ~-~-> 00:49:51,210 |same thing here we have the five year just about equal. Okay, so we have a divergence between the two year five year and 10 year. Okay. That typically is a
	257	+|256 |00:49:51,210 ~-~-> 00:50:01,680 |reason to start looking for other reasons to support a decline in yields, which would represent a decline in foreign currency, any rally The US Dollar Index.
	258	+|257 |00:50:02,280 ~-~-> 00:50:14,820 |Okay, so let's take a look at a few other examples. And we're looking at the foreign bond markets. Right now we're looking at the five year notes on the UK
	259	+|258 |00:50:14,970 ~-~-> 00:50:30,210 |tenure, I'm sorry, UK five year note, the German five year note and against the United States five year Treasury note. Okay, and we're going to look at this
	260	+|259 |00:50:30,510 ~-~-> 00:50:41,640 |same timeframe in here. Okay, going back to this chart real quick, just to reference again, we're looking in 2012, March, April time period. Okay, we're
	261	+|260 |00:50:41,640 ~-~-> 00:50:56,160 |going to go and look at this area here. And what I want to draw your attention to is the fact that we had the US five year note higher, respectively,
	262	+|261 |00:50:58,020 ~-~-> 00:51:13,230 |while the German five year note was lower, and the UK five year note was lower. Okay. And what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna take off to UK, as you can see, there
	263	+|262 |00:51:13,230 ~-~-> 00:51:27,720 |is a clear divergence between the US and the German nettle sufficiently through the divergence. Okay, see the high here, too high on the red line, that's the
	264	+|263 |00:51:27,720 ~-~-> 00:51:42,720 |German five year note. It's bearish. While at the same time, the US five year note was making a higher high in yield. Okay, and then you saw them slide
	265	+|264 |00:51:42,720 ~-~-> 00:52:04,110 |together. That that is a yield SMT divergence. Okay, as I look at it, you can see a contrary signal here back in October of 2010, where the German five year
	266	+|265 |00:52:04,110 ~-~-> 00:52:17,160 |note was failing to make lower lows in yield. At the same time, the US five year note was making a lower low. Okay, and then we saw both yields increase
	267	+|266 |00:52:17,160 ~-~-> 00:52:31,170 |together. And here the high, you saw inability for the US to trade higher in yield while the German yield went higher. And you can see there was the shift in
	268	+|267 |00:52:31,170 ~-~-> 00:52:39,570 |the major market sentiment. And that's really what this is measuring market sentiment, because you're, you're chasing the yield, okay? And the markets
	269	+|268 |00:52:39,570 ~-~-> 00:52:49,020 |always going to seek yield. Okay, so if the yields are increasing, that's going to be bullish for major currencies. And it's going to be bearish for the dollar.
	270	+|269 |00:52:50,460 ~-~-> 00:53:03,750 |And vice versa. And we see the same thing here and this April 2010. Okay, the US five year made higher highs, while the German five year note was unable to make
	271	+|270 |00:53:03,840 ~-~-> 00:53:14,580 |equivalent new highs, and there was your shift and notice this is happening march april time period. And we just recently at the time of this recording also
	272	+|271 |00:53:14,580 ~-~-> 00:53:26,850 |had another divergence which is a continuation of this longer term downtrend in yield. And again, here is a 10 year comparison, we're gonna compare the German
	273	+|272 |00:53:27,000 ~-~-> 00:53:42,210 |which is the orange date, UK, green and the lighter Orange is the US 10 year Treasury note. You see the same thing happening here where the German was making
	274	+|273 |00:53:42,210 ~-~-> 00:53:55,560 |higher highs while the US and UK 10 year notes were failing to make higher highs in their yield and the same thing is also that low was formed in the fall of
	275	+|274 |00:53:55,590 ~-~-> 00:54:11,340 |2010. We saw the German tenure failed to make lower lows and yield while the US Treasury made on its 10 year basis made a lower yield and the UK failed to make
	276	+|275 |00:54:11,370 ~-~-> 00:54:22,140 |a lower yield on seven and that was your sentiment shift to bullish and that would be looking for buy programs on major currencies and sell signals okay in
	277	+|276 |00:54:22,170 ~-~-> 00:54:30,480 |the dollar, okay. In other words, the dollar would have been declining all during this period here. And at this point where we saw a major shift, okay in
	278	+|277 |00:54:30,480 ~-~-> 00:54:42,570 |the yield diverged, the sentiment now was going to send the dollar bullish and then major currencies on the foreign would be declining. So that would be a risk
	279	+|278 |00:54:42,600 ~-~-> 00:54:57,720 |off scenario here or sell program from forex. And this is a bi program, okay, where the the current foreign currency markets would be rallying and the US
	280	+|279 |00:54:57,720 ~-~-> 00:55:07,050 |dollar at this time period would be declined. Okay, so it just basically think in terms of make it real easy for yourself, when the yields are going up, the
	281	+|280 |00:55:07,050 ~-~-> 00:55:14,160 |foreign currency markets should be trailing in sympathy, okay? Because they're going to chase yield. And as the yields drop, foreign currencies are going to
	282	+|281 |00:55:14,160 ~-~-> 00:55:23,880 |chase that down as well, there won't be any demand for that foreign currency, and they'll be a flight to safety in the form of going back to the dollar and
	283	+|282 |00:55:23,880 ~-~-> 00:55:28,110 |buying bonds. Okay. So, again,
	284	+|283 |00:55:28,140 ~-~-> 00:55:37,410 |there's an inverse relationship between the bond market itself and the yield as bonds would go up, the yields would drop and vice versa. Okay, so it that's
	285	+|284 |00:55:37,440 ~-~-> 00:55:50,040 |basically the panoramic view of a risk on risk off scenario and determining buys and sell programs on the daily basis. And this is one really strong powerful way
	286	+|285 |00:55:50,040 ~-~-> 00:55:59,490 |of keeping yourself in sync with the macro economic view. And you'll have to go through all this economic data is this is visual for you, you can see it
	287	+|286 |00:55:59,490 ~-~-> 00:56:09,330 |happening is every three to four months, just look for a shift to occur. And when you start seeing these things occur on your on the yield, okay? That's when
	288	+|287 |00:56:09,330 ~-~-> 00:56:18,090 |you want to be looking at your your price charts and looking for maybe some top formations, and some reversal scenarios. Okay. And same thing in here. So we're
	289	+|288 |00:56:18,090 ~-~-> 00:56:29,670 |using seasonal tendencies, cyclical analysis, and the yield analysis where the market will always seek yield and if yields are dropping, that's going to be
	290	+|289 |00:56:29,670 ~-~-> 00:56:32,880 |bearish for major currencies, and bullish for the US dollar.
	291	+|290 |00:57:16,920 ~-~-> 00:57:24,810 |Key support and resistance, you got to know your key levels guys, if you don't have a firm grasp on support and resistance, all this is going to be a waste of
	292	+|291 |00:57:24,810 ~-~-> 00:57:33,000 |time, because none of your signals are ever going to confirm entry or exit unless they get to one of these key levels. The cornerstone to your success in
	293	+|292 |00:57:33,000 ~-~-> 00:57:41,910 |trading will be your patience in determining high timeframe key support resistance levels, and waiting for the setups to form at those same levels. Once
	294	+|293 |00:57:41,910 ~-~-> 00:57:50,550 |you have directional bias based on the major market analysis, you identify key price levels from the 60 minute chart up to the monthly nothing less than a 60
	295	+|294 |00:57:50,550 ~-~-> 00:58:00,330 |minute chart and ideally, the daily basis is optimal. Determine monthly weekly, previous day's session highs and lows as well as pivot levels and Asian range
	296	+|295 |00:58:00,330 ~-~-> 00:58:14,790 |highs and lows. market sentiment, you got to avoid the herd mentality. if everybody's doing it, it's probably not a good thing in the futures market or
	297	+|296 |00:58:14,880 ~-~-> 00:58:24,720 |Forex. It's usually probably petered out and so you want to be looking to trade against the majority. Now when decided to take action in the market, it is
	298	+|297 |00:58:24,720 ~-~-> 00:58:35,010 |important to remain on the side of the market that is the minority. Looking for trades when the market is by all parents bullish when you want to short is
	299	+|298 |00:58:35,010 ~-~-> 00:58:45,420 |ideal. And you might have already guessed it, when it looks bearish, do your buying. This might sound rather obvious and elementary but consider how little
	300	+|299 |00:58:45,420 ~-~-> 00:58:57,150 |actually followed this mindset. Consider the intraday Judas swing for example. This is a sentiment played by all standards, and it's used to quantify an entry
	301	+|300 |00:58:57,210 ~-~-> 00:58:58,530 |in the opposite direction.
	302	+|301 |00:59:04,320 ~-~-> 00:59:16,020 |market structure hunt intermediate term price swings. If you find all of your trading occurring at long to intermediate term price swings, you're going to
	303	+|302 |00:59:16,020 ~-~-> 00:59:26,160 |find that your trading is absolutely mind blowing. The ideal setups for trading low risk high probability swings is to limit your consideration to only trade
	304	+|303 |00:59:26,190 ~-~-> 00:59:35,730 |the intermediate term highs for shorts and intermediate term lows for Long's. Taking short term scalps and or day trades in the same direction is advised.
	305	+|304 |00:59:36,390 ~-~-> 00:59:47,430 |Your trading plan is not to capture every move in the market, just the easy low hanging fruit. Using daily four hour and hourly market structure and nesting
	306	+|305 |00:59:47,430 ~-~-> 01:00:02,430 |fractals can be a wildly profitable price action approach. This is my core price action concepts open interest and premiums. open interest reflex Smart Money
	307	+|306 |01:00:02,430 ~-~-> 01:00:10,830 |activity. Now the open interest is basically only going to be found in the futures market. And the open interest in for instance, is example here. Okay, in
	308	+|307 |01:00:10,830 ~-~-> 01:00:20,160 |this example, we're looking at the Swiss franc. And what I've noted here is that price had ran up, it's been in an uptrend and we moved into a trading range.
	309	+|308 |01:00:20,490 ~-~-> 01:00:33,180 |Okay? And if you look at the circle here, that is open interest, that cumulative line that goes along, and all of a sudden drops off precipitously drops the
	310	+|309 |01:00:33,180 ~-~-> 01:00:44,100 |trade down. Okay, that is open interest declining while the market is in a range. What do you think that translates to? Well, this is a concept that I
	311	+|310 |01:00:44,100 ~-~-> 01:00:52,620 |adopted from Larry Williams and it still served me well today. The open interest while in a market market consolidation or range can tip the hand of the smart
	312	+|311 |01:00:52,620 ~-~-> 01:01:03,180 |money if you understand what to look for. If the open interest drops off 20% or more rapidly, this is attributed to commercial short covering, if open interest
	313	+|312 |01:01:03,180 ~-~-> 01:01:12,300 |increases 20% or more rapidly in a consolidation, this is commercial short selling, commercial traders are the largest hedgers in the marketplace. And when
	314	+|313 |01:01:12,300 ~-~-> 01:01:20,790 |you hedge, you're essentially shorting the market, you're selling something you already have. So if open interest declines, that means that they're lightening
	315	+|314 |01:01:20,790 ~-~-> 01:01:31,050 |up aggressively on your shorts. Why would they do that, because they anticipate price going higher. When you have a premium in the futures contracts, that means
	316	+|315 |01:01:31,050 ~-~-> 01:01:41,760 |the nearby contract is selling at a higher price than the next month out in the future. That is a premium. Okay, that means is that a high demand for that
	317	+|316 |01:01:41,760 ~-~-> 01:01:53,760 |particular commodity or currency? If you see open interest dropping off in that scenario, this is a near perfect trade scenario you need to be buying. And as a
	318	+|317 |01:01:53,760 ~-~-> 01:02:04,650 |result, this was a mega trade. This is in 2010. If you look at your charts around the Fourth of July in 2010, you can see how in the FX market, the pair
	319	+|318 |01:02:04,800 ~-~-> 01:02:16,710 |for the swissy fell out of bed like a rock. This trade and futures market actually moved 2300 points. And it did less than half of two months. And open
	320	+|319 |01:02:16,710 ~-~-> 01:02:27,900 |interest dropped while in the range at support at 118. And it was in an existing trend already. And that's absolutely mind boggling profit. And if you have that
	321	+|320 |01:02:27,900 ~-~-> 01:02:36,600 |type of scenario unfold in the marketplace and you see a couple of these happen a year, you can really absolutely kill it catch some explosive price moves. So I
	322	+|321 |01:02:36,600 ~-~-> 01:02:44,550 |would counsel you to look at open interest in the futures markets on the pairs that you trade. The Swiss franc is example here, but it's not limited to that
	323	+|322 |01:02:44,580 ~-~-> 01:02:58,440 |it's you can use it in the dollar index you can use in the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, British pound, Japanese yen, and even the euro. Higher
	324	+|323 |01:02:58,440 ~-~-> 01:03:05,700 |timeframe directional bias, maintaining a focus on the weekly daily impossibly the four hour timeframes will keep your trading in the highest probable
	325	+|324 |01:03:05,700 ~-~-> 01:03:15,120 |direction. Look for support or resistance on these levels determine where price is trying to reach to if price is trading lower on the daily look for an old low
	326	+|325 |01:03:15,150 ~-~-> 01:03:26,310 |or high in the left side of your chart to determine if there's time and price available for trade. Given that direction. Reverse for looking for buy setups.
	327	+|326 |01:03:26,580 ~-~-> 01:03:31,740 |The main point is to keep the higher timeframe in your trading. It really does pay off.
	328	+|327 |01:04:13,110 ~-~-> 01:04:22,800 |general market risk on or risk off? You want to start with the interest rates. Are we seeing yields dropping or increasing? Is there weakness or strength in
	329	+|328 |01:04:22,800 ~-~-> 01:04:32,040 |the stocks commodity and treasuries? is gold and or oil giving you any clues? Is the dollar index confirming recent highs or lows compared to the interest rates?
	330	+|329 |01:04:32,730 ~-~-> 01:04:43,110 |Are there any market reports do that might change the current market tone. The more the other asset classes confirm or negate your trade idea, the better risk
	331	+|330 |01:04:43,110 ~-~-> 01:04:47,370 |off dollar rallies risk on it slides. It's that simple.
	332	+|331 |01:04:52,380 ~-~-> 01:05:01,050 |anticipatory stage of analysis. This is the stage of analysis where you will spend the majority of your time it is on the weekly and daily time. Since the
	333	+|332 |01:05:01,050 ~-~-> 01:05:08,850 |trades are based on these higher timeframes, there might be a few days or so before a trade actually sets up. Don't worry, that's a good thing. You want to
	334	+|333 |01:05:08,850 ~-~-> 01:05:16,980 |track the interest rates, you want to be paying attention to cod Commitment of Traders reports, major market indices, seasonal tendencies, key support
	335	+|334 |01:05:16,980 ~-~-> 01:05:30,090 |resistance levels and inter market analysis with correlated assets. This stage of analysis is the foundation to your successful trading career. execution stage
	336	+|335 |01:05:30,090 ~-~-> 01:05:38,160 |of analysis This is stage of analysis where you hunt setups based on the insights and conclusions you arrived at in the anticipatory stage of analysis.
	337	+|336 |01:05:38,820 ~-~-> 01:05:48,150 |If risk is on, look for setups to buy currencies and confirm these setups, with higher moving are poised to rally stock indices, CRB oil, golden SMT concepts.
	338	+|337 |01:05:48,510 ~-~-> 01:05:58,500 |If risk is off, look for setups to sell currencies and confirm these setups with lower moving or poised to decline, stock indices, the CRB index oil gold and SMT
	339	+|338 |01:05:58,500 ~-~-> 01:06:10,920 |concepts. Management stage of analysis This is the stage that requires your concepts for trade management want open positions, the management of stop loss
	340	+|339 |01:06:10,920 ~-~-> 01:06:19,890 |orders, limit orders, initial profit objectives and scaling later portions. Your trading plan must have clear concepts and techniques for the process that you
	341	+|340 |01:06:19,890 ~-~-> 01:06:30,420 |will adhere to when managing open positions. This stage of analysis is crucial for consistently and having longevity in this career. You can find wonderful
	342	+|341 |01:06:30,420 ~-~-> 01:06:40,410 |setups, enter it off more entry points and still mismanaged the trade and in this stage, you will find results bring with it loss and regret if you do not
	343	+|342 |01:06:40,470 ~-~-> 01:06:55,260 |manage your analysis correctly. reactionary stage of analysis. This stage of analysis is seen where your trades are open and you suspect or clearly see
	344	+|343 |01:06:55,260 ~-~-> 01:07:03,810 |reasons to collapse the trade and cut your losses or take what profits you have open. There must be clear parameters in your trading plan that will invoke an
	345	+|344 |01:07:03,810 ~-~-> 01:07:13,770 |immediate trade termination and abort on your original trade idea. This might be a result of a report or news event global catastrophe and or you realize you're
	346	+|345 |01:07:13,770 ~-~-> 01:07:17,880 |simply human and essentially wrong. Imagine that making the mistake
	347	+|346 |01:07:23,250 ~-~-> 01:07:32,430 |the documentation stage of analysis. This stage of analysis is where you record in your journal what your trade idea was based on what tools you use them why
	348	+|347 |01:07:32,940 ~-~-> 01:07:41,280 |screenshots and how you felt going into the trade while the position was open and what made you nervous. The results of the trade should be documented and
	349	+|348 |01:07:41,280 ~-~-> 01:07:49,350 |reflection on the trade plan and was it adhered to from the beginning to end document any lessons learned from the trade and what you would have liked to
	350	+|349 |01:07:49,350 ~-~-> 01:07:57,900 |have done differently? determine what leverage and or lot size your next trade will be using. Keep these records and refer to them when you experience a period
	351	+|350 |01:07:57,900 ~-~-> 01:08:03,300 |of drawdown and or a string of losses. It will remind you that temporary losing streaks come and go
4	4
5		-2
6		-00:02:06,330 ~-~-> 00:02:07,230
7		-trading plan.
8		-
9		-3
10		-00:02:08,129 ~-~-> 00:02:10,949
11		-If you're new to trading and you do not have a trading plan,
12		-
13		-4
14		-00:02:12,240 ~-~-> 00:02:13,860
15		-it's hopefully my goal
16		-
17		-5
18		-00:02:14,820 ~-~-> 00:02:18,960
19		-as an end result in this presentation to communicate the
20		-
21		-6
22		-00:02:18,960 ~-~-> 00:02:23,220
23		-need for one. If you've already started trading, and you've
24		-
25		-7
26		-00:02:23,220 ~-~-> 00:02:26,250
27		-been having difficulties, and you don't have a trading plan,
28		-
29		-8
30		-00:02:26,250 ~-~-> 00:02:30,900
31		-I could pretty much guarantee if you just put some work into
32		-
33		-9
34		-00:02:30,900 ~-~-> 00:02:34,950
35		-formulating a very clear, concise trading plan, your results
36		-
37		-10
38		-00:02:34,950 ~-~-> 00:02:38,400
39		-would be dramatically different. Because basically having no
40		-
41		-11
42		-00:02:38,400 ~-~-> 00:02:42,510
43		-plan equals emotional driven results, okay, you're not gonna
44		-
45		-12
46		-00:02:42,510 ~-~-> 00:02:45,300
47		-have any understanding what to do going to be reacting more
48		-
49		-13
50		-00:02:45,300 ~-~-> 00:02:48,360
51		-than you're anticipating. And that's the stark difference
52		-
53		-14
54		-00:02:48,360 ~-~-> 00:02:51,540
55		-between a professional trader because they do have a
56		-
57		-15
58		-00:02:51,540 ~-~-> 00:02:54,930
59		-detailed, organized trading plan. It's well written, it's
60		-
61		-16
62		-00:02:54,960 ~-~-> 00:02:58,650
63		-it's by their trading desk, it's memorized. It's reviewed
64		-
65		-17
66		-00:02:58,800 ~-~-> 00:03:03,390
67		-continuously. By having such they have an objective and
68		-
69		-18
70		-00:03:03,390 ~-~-> 00:03:07,170
71		-result. And it really is the DNA of a successful trader. So
72		-
73		-19
74		-00:03:07,830 ~-~-> 00:03:10,410
75		-having a trading plan is at the top of your list as far as
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77		-20
78		-00:03:10,410 ~-~-> 00:03:15,780
79		-being a consistently profitable trader. Right The majority
80		-
81		-21
82		-00:03:15,780 ~-~-> 00:03:18,660
83		-of your time, what do you do as a trader? And where is it
84		-
85		-22
86		-00:03:19,110 ~-~-> 00:03:23,790
87		-most spent in terms of time? Well, first, you got to
88		-
89		-23
90		-00:03:23,790 ~-~-> 00:03:25,740
91		-understand that you have to manage your time wisely.
92		-
93		-24
94		-00:03:25,980 ~-~-> 00:03:27,600
95		-Okay, no one's going to manage it for you.
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97		-25
98		-00:03:27,900 ~-~-> 00:03:32,160
99		-So it's important that you understand that the countless
100		-
101		-26
102		-00:03:32,160 ~-~-> 00:03:34,230
103		-hours that you spend in analysis without having a clear
104		-
105		-27
106		-00:03:34,230 ~-~-> 00:03:38,070
107		-objective premise to it is actually counterproductive. Okay,
108		-
109		-28
110		-00:03:38,160 ~-~-> 00:03:40,200
111		-you feel like you're doing the right thing by spending a lot
112		-
113		-29
114		-00:03:40,200 ~-~-> 00:03:42,330
115		-of time staring at the chart. But unless you have an
116		-
117		-30
118		-00:03:42,330 ~-~-> 00:03:44,520
119		-understanding of exactly what it is you're looking for,
120		-
121		-31
122		-00:03:44,730 ~-~-> 00:03:48,930
123		-you're just wasting your time. You need to spend quality
124		-
125		-32
126		-00:03:48,930 ~-~-> 00:03:52,080
127		-time with the macro economic analysis and higher time frame
128		-
129		-33
130		-00:03:52,080 ~-~-> 00:03:54,240
131		-support resistance levels. I can't stress this enough
132		-
133		-34
134		-00:03:54,240 ~-~-> 00:03:56,730
135		-because most new traders come into the marketplace and he
136		-
137		-35
138		-00:03:56,730 ~-~-> 00:04:03,060
139		-spent too far time in Five and 15 minute charts, and maybe
140		-
141		-36
142		-00:04:03,060 ~-~-> 00:04:05,370
143		-even one minute charts, hoping to see some kind of
144		-
145		-37
146		-00:04:05,370 ~-~-> 00:04:10,260
147		-mysterious neon sign saying buy me or sell me. Nothing
148		-
149		-38
150		-00:04:10,260 ~-~-> 00:04:13,170
151		-significant occurs without first leaving telltale signs on a
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153		-39
154		-00:04:13,170 ~-~-> 00:04:16,680
155		-long term basis. That means if there's a significant price
156		-
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158		-00:04:16,680 ~-~-> 00:04:19,890
159		-move, I guarantee you if you look at the higher timeframe
160		-
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162		-00:04:19,890 ~-~-> 00:04:23,010
163		-charts, and I'm referring to the monthly, weekly, daily for
164		-
165		-42
166		-00:04:23,010 ~-~-> 00:04:26,730
167		-hour and new, less than a one hour chart, those timeframes
168		-
169		-43
170		-00:04:26,730 ~-~-> 00:04:29,640
171		-are going to have a clue as to what was the catalyst for
172		-
173		-44
174		-00:04:29,640 ~-~-> 00:04:34,740
175		-that move prior to it actually unfolding. Follow the
176		-
177		-45
178		-00:04:34,740 ~-~-> 00:04:37,620
179		-interest rates. This is where the majority of your time is
180		-
181		-46
182		-00:04:37,620 ~-~-> 00:04:40,200
183		-gonna be spent. You need to get a feel for what interest
184		-
185		-47
186		-00:04:40,200 ~-~-> 00:04:43,260
187		-rates are trying to do. Are they moving higher or are they
188		-
189		-48
190		-00:04:43,260 ~-~-> 00:04:46,350
191		-moving lower? Keeping track of the overnight lending rate
192		-
193		-49
194		-00:04:46,350 ~-~-> 00:04:51,150
195		-with the banks per country is absolutely significant
196		-
197		-50
198		-00:04:51,330 ~-~-> 00:04:54,510
199		-information and insight you need as a consistent trader
200		-
201		-51
202		-00:04:58,770 ~-~-> 00:05:02,640
203		-what's the least important part? And trading? Well, don't
204		-
205		-52
206		-00:05:02,640 ~-~-> 00:05:06,030
207		-focus on the money number one. And unfortunately, we all get
208		-
209		-53
210		-00:05:06,030 ~-~-> 00:05:09,570
211		-into this business for a number of things, okay, but top of
212		-
213		-54
214		-00:05:09,570 ~-~-> 00:05:13,170
215		-the list should be to make money. But while you're trading,
216		-
217		-55
218		-00:05:13,200 ~-~-> 00:05:16,650
219		-your focus should not be on the money. Don't focus on the
220		-
221		-56
222		-00:05:16,650 ~-~-> 00:05:19,080
223		-amount of money that you hope to make, there's no guarantee
224		-
225		-57
226		-00:05:19,080 ~-~-> 00:05:20,910
227		-you're going to make it on every trade. So there's no real
228		-
229		-58
230		-00:05:20,910 ~-~-> 00:05:25,260
231		-point in hoping you just trade the process, trade your plan,
232		-
233		-59
234		-00:05:25,500 ~-~-> 00:05:29,220
235		-and the end result should if you have a well grounded, well
236		-
237		-60
238		-00:05:30,090 ~-~-> 00:05:33,030
239		-formulated trading plan, money will deposit into your
240		-
241		-61
242		-00:05:33,030 ~-~-> 00:05:37,200
243		-account. Do not worry about losses, okay? You're going to
244		-
245		-62
246		-00:05:37,200 ~-~-> 00:05:40,050
247		-have losing trades. If you accept that going in. You won't
248		-
249		-63
250		-00:05:40,050 ~-~-> 00:05:42,840
251		-be demoralized from it. Okay, every good trader whether
252		-
253		-64
254		-00:05:42,840 ~-~-> 00:05:48,000
255		-you're professional or not, they have losing streaks. Do not
256		-
257		-65
258		-00:05:48,000 ~-~-> 00:05:50,790
259		-worry about missed trades. I'm going to tell you right now
260		-
261		-66
262		-00:05:50,790 ~-~-> 00:05:54,750
263		-I'm probably miss more winning trades every single week than
264		-
265		-67
266		-00:05:54,750 ~-~-> 00:05:57,870
267		-more than most of you realize. I don't take a whole lot of
268		-
269		-68
270		-00:05:57,870 ~-~-> 00:06:00,330
271		-trades. I like to cherry pick. I like to take things And are
272		-
273		-69
274		-00:06:00,330 ~-~-> 00:06:00,630
275		-really
276		-
277		-70
278		-00:06:01,170 ~-~-> 00:06:01,740
279		-Unknown: set up.
280		-
281		-71
282		-00:06:02,070 ~-~-> 00:06:04,140
283		-ICT: And if you have that mindset going in much like
284		-
285		-72
286		-00:06:04,770 ~-~-> 00:06:08,340
287		-expecting losses, it's very comforting to know that you
288		-
289		-73
290		-00:06:08,340 ~-~-> 00:06:11,250
291		-don't feeling rushed. And that's a very important
292		-
293		-74
294		-00:06:11,610 ~-~-> 00:06:14,880
295		-characteristic of a professional trader. We aren't rushed to
296		-
297		-75
298		-00:06:14,880 ~-~-> 00:06:17,490
299		-get in the marketplace. You know, we react slowly when
300		-
301		-76
302		-00:06:17,490 ~-~-> 00:06:20,880
303		-trying to make money. And we react fast and quickly when
304		-
305		-77
306		-00:06:20,880 ~-~-> 00:06:22,770
307		-we're trying to preserve our money. That's a very
308		-
309		-78
310		-00:06:22,950 ~-~-> 00:06:25,080
311		-significant paradigm shift that you're going to need if you
312		-
313		-79
314		-00:06:25,080 ~-~-> 00:06:26,760
315		-don't already have that mindset going in.
316		-
317		-80
318		-00:06:28,529 ~-~-> 00:06:31,499
319		-The least important process in trading is the entry signals.
320		-
321		-81
322		-00:06:31,500 ~-~-> 00:06:34,470
323		-And I'll probably stop you right there. But it really is
324		-
325		-82
326		-00:06:34,500 ~-~-> 00:06:38,370
327		-least in terms of significance. If you don't have a macro
328		-
329		-83
330		-00:06:38,370 ~-~-> 00:06:41,280
331		-understanding of what's going on in the marketplace and the
332		-
333		-84
334		-00:06:41,280 ~-~-> 00:06:44,160
335		-higher timeframe directional bias, chances are, you're
336		-
337		-85
338		-00:06:44,160 ~-~-> 00:06:47,310
339		-probably going to be wrong more times, and you're right. So
340		-
341		-86
342		-00:06:47,940 ~-~-> 00:06:56,610
343		-it's my goal to really try to drive you to looking at the
344		-
345		-87
346		-00:06:56,640 ~-~-> 00:07:00,450
347		-weekly the monthly, the daily in the four hour chart. And if
348		-
349		-88
350		-00:07:00,450 ~-~-> 00:07:02,220
351		-you're going to go a little less than four hour, don't go
352		-
353		-89
354		-00:07:02,220 ~-~-> 00:07:05,160
355		-below one hour, but spend most spend most of your time on
356		-
357		-90
358		-00:07:05,160 ~-~-> 00:07:09,300
359		-the weekly and daily, those charts are going to be the most
360		-
361		-91
362		-00:07:09,540 ~-~-> 00:07:13,440
363		-in significance. Because it's the banking levels are
364		-
365		-92
366		-00:07:13,680 ~-~-> 00:07:14,310
367		-determined.
368		-
369		-93
370		-00:07:17,550 ~-~-> 00:07:21,540
371		-Premise and sound basis is paramount. That means you have to
372		-
373		-94
374		-00:07:21,540 ~-~-> 00:07:23,580
375		-have an understanding of what it is that you're doing.
376		-
377		-95
378		-00:07:24,120 ~-~-> 00:07:26,820
379		-You're not just staring blindly at charts because that's not
380		-
381		-96
382		-00:07:26,820 ~-~-> 00:07:30,570
383		-going to get you anywhere. I guarantee you unless you have a
384		-
385		-97
386		-00:07:30,600 ~-~-> 00:07:35,370
387		-specific pattern, a motive that you use to get into a
388		-
389		-98
390		-00:07:35,370 ~-~-> 00:07:38,790
391		-particular trade. And you hunt that whether you're back
392		-
393		-99
394		-00:07:38,790 ~-~-> 00:07:42,060
395		-testing or walking forward with it. Unless you have that
396		-
397		-100
398		-00:07:42,060 ~-~-> 00:07:44,550
399		-understanding of what it is specifically that you're looking
400		-
401		-101
402		-00:07:44,550 ~-~-> 00:07:47,640
403		-for. You're just basically spinning your wheels and it's my
404		-
405		-102
406		-00:07:47,640 ~-~-> 00:07:53,580
407		-advice not to do that. Keep the focus on the plan and work
408		-
409		-103
410		-00:07:53,610 ~-~-> 00:07:56,010
411		-the trading edge that your method exploits
412		-
413		-104
414		-00:08:01,589 ~-~-> 00:08:05,309
415		-All right, the general overview. Right trading plans are
416		-
417		-105
418		-00:08:05,309 ~-~-> 00:08:08,309
419		-basically taking all the pieces of the puzzle to equate to
420		-
421		-106
422		-00:08:08,309 ~-~-> 00:08:11,639
423		-successful trading and bringing those pieces together. Those
424		-
425		-107
426		-00:08:11,639 ~-~-> 00:08:15,179
427		-pieces could be fundamental data technicals, inter market
428		-
429		-108
430		-00:08:16,409 ~-~-> 00:08:21,629
431		-analysis. All these things go together in terms of building
432		-
433		-109
434		-00:08:21,659 ~-~-> 00:08:26,069
435		-a trading plan. impeccable risk control is the first
436		-
437		-110
438		-00:08:26,069 ~-~-> 00:08:31,319
439		-component to any successful trading plan. Flawless equity
440		-
441		-111
442		-00:08:31,319 ~-~-> 00:08:35,459
443		-management, which is closely tied to risk control is
444		-
445		-112
446		-00:08:35,459 ~-~-> 00:08:38,909
447		-essential to every successful trading plan. You can have all
448		-
449		-113
450		-00:08:39,269 ~-~-> 00:08:42,479
451		-the bells and whistles on your trade monitor, but it means
452		-
453		-114
454		-00:08:42,479 ~-~-> 00:08:44,939
455		-nothing unless you control your money and the risks involved
456		-
457		-115
458		-00:08:44,939 ~-~-> 00:08:49,649
459		-in all your trades. fundamentals at any measure can always
460		-
461		-116
462		-00:08:49,649 ~-~-> 00:08:53,909
463		-assist a trader in trade plan development. inter market
464		-
465		-117
466		-00:08:53,909 ~-~-> 00:08:56,549
467		-analysis is key to a well balanced trading plan.
468		-
469		-118
470		-00:08:56,849 ~-~-> 00:08:59,969
471		-Understanding how all the asset classes tie together in his
472		-
473		-119
474		-00:08:59,999 ~-~-> 00:09:04,019
475		-Upon movement on the interest rate markets that is crucial
476		-
477		-120
478		-00:09:04,019 ~-~-> 00:09:08,069
479		-for your long term success and longevity in trading.
480		-
481		-121
482		-00:09:10,169 ~-~-> 00:09:13,439
483		-Technical analysis, and a comprehensive approach to sound
484		-
485		-122
486		-00:09:13,439 ~-~-> 00:09:16,469
487		-tools and concepts is the framework to exercising a trading
488		-
489		-123
490		-00:09:16,469 ~-~-> 00:09:21,239
491		-plan. If you don't have a concise list of specific tools
492		-
493		-124
494		-00:09:21,239 ~-~-> 00:09:25,229
495		-that you use for specific times and reasons, you're going to
496		-
497		-125
498		-00:09:25,229 ~-~-> 00:09:27,149
499		-be floating in and out with different oscillators, you're
500		-
501		-126
502		-00:09:27,149 ~-~-> 00:09:30,599
503		-gonna be using different tools, understand what tools you're
504		-
505		-127
506		-00:09:30,599 ~-~-> 00:09:33,599
507		-going to have and stick to those and understand what it is
508		-
509		-128
510		-00:09:33,599 ~-~-> 00:09:36,809
511		-that those specific specific tools do. And try not to use
512		-
513		-129
514		-00:09:36,809 ~-~-> 00:09:39,479
515		-them for any other reason except for those purposes only.
516		-
517		-130
518		-00:09:41,999 ~-~-> 00:09:44,909
519		-executing a top down analysis with all the above components
520		-
521		-131
522		-00:09:44,909 ~-~-> 00:09:47,819
523		-will deliver optimal results while controlling risk, which
524		-
525		-132
526		-00:09:47,819 ~-~-> 00:09:51,419
527		-is the number one reason why we as traders last as long as
528		-
529		-133
530		-00:09:51,419 ~-~-> 00:09:55,499
531		-we do in this business, we control risk. So all the pieces
532		-
533		-134
534		-00:09:55,499 ~-~-> 00:09:58,679
535		-together it begins and ends with the control of risk.
536		-
537		-135
538		-00:10:40,440 ~-~-> 00:10:44,760
539		-paradigm shift Alright guys, you are not the only predator
540		-
541		-136
542		-00:10:44,760 ~-~-> 00:10:47,220
543		-in the marketplace. I know sometimes when we get these
544		-
545		-137
546		-00:10:47,220 ~-~-> 00:10:49,560
547		-trading plans and trading tools and it's the first time
548		-
549		-138
550		-00:10:49,560 ~-~-> 00:10:52,770
551		-you've ever probably looked at an organized structure of how
552		-
553		-139
554		-00:10:52,770 ~-~-> 00:10:55,890
555		-to apply analysis to the marketplace, and you feel kind of
556		-
557		-140
558		-00:10:55,890 ~-~-> 00:10:58,860
559		-like a big shot, and that's normal. It's kind of cool now,
560		-
561		-141
562		-00:10:59,250 ~-~-> 00:11:03,480
563		-but dude Not overestimate the importance of knowing there's
564		-
565		-142
566		-00:11:03,480 ~-~-> 00:11:07,800
567		-other people out there that want your mind to when you go in
568		-
569		-143
570		-00:11:07,830 ~-~-> 00:11:11,400
571		-confident, or you develop confidence later on, understand
572		-
573		-144
574		-00:11:11,430 ~-~-> 00:11:15,660
575		-overconfidence is actually counterproductive. overconfidence
576		-
577		-145
578		-00:11:15,660 ~-~-> 00:11:19,080
579		-is actually an invitation for ego which also allows the
580		-
581		-146
582		-00:11:19,080 ~-~-> 00:11:21,840
583		-input of emotions and that's not what you want your trading.
584		-
585		-147
586		-00:11:23,070 ~-~-> 00:11:26,760
587		-Never assume your well designed trading plan won't hit a
588		-
589		-148
590		-00:11:26,760 ~-~-> 00:11:30,090
591		-losing streak. I'm assuring you that it will. There's no one
592		-
593		-149
594		-00:11:30,090 ~-~-> 00:11:32,100
595		-out there that is immune to it, you're going to have a
596		-
597		-150
598		-00:11:32,100 ~-~-> 00:11:36,420
599		-losing streak, okay. always reflect on your wins as a
600		-
601		-151
602		-00:11:36,420 ~-~-> 00:11:39,930
603		-victory and your losses as a learning opportunity. All
604		-
605		-152
606		-00:11:39,930 ~-~-> 00:11:42,990
607		-learning opportunities that I've experienced in my trading
608		-
609		-153
610		-00:11:43,140 ~-~-> 00:11:46,020
611		-have actually produced greater growth
612		-
613		-154
614		-00:11:46,020 ~-~-> 00:11:46,290
615		-in
616		-
617		-155
618		-00:11:46,410 ~-~-> 00:11:48,960
619		-my development as a trader. So losses are actually a
620		-
621		-156
622		-00:11:48,960 ~-~-> 00:11:53,550
623		-beneficial thing. It will take preparation in advance to
624		-
625		-157
626		-00:11:53,550 ~-~-> 00:11:56,490
627		-weather periods of inevitable draw down. Journal your
628		-
629		-158
630		-00:11:56,490 ~-~-> 00:11:59,460
631		-results both good and bad. It's important you go back to
632		-
633		-159
634		-00:11:59,460 ~-~-> 00:12:02,400
635		-that journal Because it periods of drawdown and strings of
636		-
637		-160
638		-00:12:02,400 ~-~-> 00:12:05,550
639		-losses, it will help remind you that these are temporary
640		-
641		-161
642		-00:12:05,550 ~-~-> 00:12:08,280
643		-events and that you do eventually trade out of them if you
644		-
645		-162
646		-00:12:08,280 ~-~-> 00:12:11,190
647		-control risk and reduce your overall exposure as you
648		-
649		-163
650		-00:12:11,430 ~-~-> 00:12:16,110
651		-continue to take losses. Do not overdrive your trading plan
652		-
653		-164
654		-00:12:16,110 ~-~-> 00:12:19,140
655		-or attempt to trade outside its intended purpose. Do not
656		-
657		-165
658		-00:12:19,140 ~-~-> 00:12:24,420
659		-turn a position trade, okay into multiple different
660		-
661		-166
662		-00:12:24,450 ~-~-> 00:12:27,570
663		-timeframe trades. Okay. If you if your analysis suggests
664		-
665		-167
666		-00:12:27,570 ~-~-> 00:12:32,460
667		-it's a position, trade, trade it like that, okay. Every
668		-
669		-168
670		-00:12:32,460 ~-~-> 00:12:35,340
671		-great trader has one thing in common and it's the respect
672		-
673		-169
674		-00:12:35,340 ~-~-> 00:12:38,190
675		-and understanding that the risk will always outweigh the
676		-
677		-170
678		-00:12:38,190 ~-~-> 00:12:41,610
679		-reward unless it is properly managed. It's not about the
680		-
681		-171
682		-00:12:41,610 ~-~-> 00:12:44,220
683		-profits. It's controlling risk.
684		-
685		-172
686		-00:12:49,590 ~-~-> 00:12:51,360
687		-Pack small play big
688		-
689		-173
690		-00:12:52,950 ~-~-> 00:12:57,180
691		-2% risk or less, is it really enough? I probably get this
692		-
693		-174
694		-00:12:57,180 ~-~-> 00:13:02,160
695		-question emailed to me more than any other You when you get
696		-
697		-175
698		-00:13:02,160 ~-~-> 00:13:04,560
699		-into trading guys, you probably fantasize about going to
700		-
701		-176
702		-00:13:04,560 ~-~-> 00:13:10,290
703		-places like this. And you think you need to risk 2015 10% of
704		-
705		-177
706		-00:13:10,290 ~-~-> 00:13:12,690
707		-your account to get there. And I can assure you, I've been
708		-
709		-178
710		-00:13:12,690 ~-~-> 00:13:16,200
711		-to places like this. And I've done it with 2% risk or many
712		-
713		-179
714		-00:13:16,200 ~-~-> 00:13:20,340
715		-times with less than that. And it's amazing. If you just
716		-
717		-180
718		-00:13:20,340 ~-~-> 00:13:23,490
719		-understand the power of compound interest, you don't need a
720		-
721		-181
722		-00:13:23,490 ~-~-> 00:13:26,640
723		-whole lot of risk exposure to build this wealth. The
724		-
725		-182
726		-00:13:26,640 ~-~-> 00:13:29,610
727		-question will always be in the developing traders mind, how
728		-
729		-183
730		-00:13:29,610 ~-~-> 00:13:32,640
731		-can I make a fortune with so little risk and hopefully by
732		-
733		-184
734		-00:13:32,640 ~-~-> 00:13:34,650
735		-the end of this presentation, you'll see that you don't
736		-
737		-185
738		-00:13:34,650 ~-~-> 00:13:37,650
739		-really need a whole lot of risk. You just need time and
740		-
741		-186
742		-00:13:37,650 ~-~-> 00:13:42,660
743		-consistency. proficient consistent traders focus on the
744		-
745		-187
746		-00:13:42,660 ~-~-> 00:13:46,410
747		-reality that their trading will not be perfect. We are not
748		-
749		-188
750		-00:13:46,410 ~-~-> 00:13:49,020
751		-going in with the mindset of expecting our trades to be
752		-
753		-189
754		-00:13:49,020 ~-~-> 00:13:51,960
755		-perfect, okay? We don't even need high accuracy,
756		-
757		-190
758		-00:13:52,050 ~-~-> 00:13:52,530
759		-okay.
760		-
761		-191
762		-00:13:53,040 ~-~-> 00:13:56,820
763		-But you do need consistently following a trading plan.
764		-
765		-192
766		-00:13:56,940 ~-~-> 00:14:03,060
767		-That's paramount. You have to continuously do that. You can
768		-
769		-193
770		-00:14:03,060 ~-~-> 00:14:06,960
771		-make all the money you ever need risking 2% and many times
772		-
773		-194
774		-00:14:06,960 ~-~-> 00:14:11,880
775		-even less than that portrayed. Wealth is built with time,
776		-
777		-195
778		-00:14:12,240 ~-~-> 00:14:20,010
779		-not excessive risk exposure. Keeping realistic goals in
780		-
781		-196
782		-00:14:20,010 ~-~-> 00:14:25,170
783		-focus. Alright guys, you've seen all of the internet gurus
784		-
785		-197
786		-00:14:25,170 ~-~-> 00:14:28,260
787		-and you probably thought I was one like that as well. That
788		-
789		-198
790		-00:14:28,260 ~-~-> 00:14:30,120
791		-promised riches real quick.
792		-
793		-199
794		-00:14:30,359 ~-~-> 00:14:33,269
795		-You're gonna get, you know, 1000 pips every month.
796		-
797		-200
798		-00:14:34,350 ~-~-> 00:14:38,580
799		-Guys, look, don't take the bait. Okay, that is meant for you
800		-
801		-201
802		-00:14:38,610 ~-~-> 00:14:43,830
803		-to lose. Okay? Do not buy into that mindset. Your goal is to
804		-
805		-202
806		-00:14:43,830 ~-~-> 00:14:47,070
807		-steadily build your account with little draw down as humanly
808		-
809		-203
810		-00:14:47,070 ~-~-> 00:14:51,900
811		-possible. Your trading is not hinged on the premise. You
812		-
813		-204
814		-00:14:51,900 ~-~-> 00:14:55,230
815		-must hit home run profits, every trade, or even weekly.
816		-
817		-205
818		-00:14:56,010 ~-~-> 00:14:59,670
819		-There's a lot of times I'll have a losing week. There's many
820		-
821		-206
822		-00:14:59,670 ~-~-> 00:15:04,230
823		-times on Have a losing day and then come back from that and
824		-
825		-207
826		-00:15:04,260 ~-~-> 00:15:08,280
827		-be able to recoup it. But I'm not always hitting Win Win
828		-
829		-208
830		-00:15:08,280 ~-~-> 00:15:13,350
831		-Win, win win, and you're not going to either. Your career
832		-
833		-209
834		-00:15:13,380 ~-~-> 00:15:17,400
835		-should be built on a low, yet sufficient baseline target
836		-
837		-210
838		-00:15:17,400 ~-~-> 00:15:25,410
839		-based on percent return, or pips per month or week. trading
840		-
841		-211
842		-00:15:25,410 ~-~-> 00:15:28,920
843		-with risk controlled and profiting a net gain of 25 pips per
844		-
845		-212
846		-00:15:28,920 ~-~-> 00:15:34,110
847		-week should be a new traders goal. After consistently
848		-
849		-213
850		-00:15:34,110 ~-~-> 00:15:37,800
851		-harvesting 25 pips per week graduate to targeting 50 pips
852		-
853		-214
854		-00:15:39,090 ~-~-> 00:15:42,930
855		-after 50 pips per week is achieved, aim for 75 pips and
856		-
857		-215
858		-00:15:42,930 ~-~-> 00:15:45,420
859		-eventually move beyond that as your experience and tolerance
860		-
861		-216
862		-00:15:45,420 ~-~-> 00:15:46,710
863		-for risk increases.
864		-
865		-217
866		-00:15:50,670 ~-~-> 00:15:52,260
867		-Alright, let's look at a case study here we're going to look
868		-
869		-218
870		-00:15:52,260 ~-~-> 00:15:52,890
871		-at a
872		-
873		-219
874		-00:15:53,819 ~-~-> 00:15:57,839
875		-trading model that more or less targets and shoots a goal
876		-
877		-220
878		-00:15:57,839 ~-~-> 00:16:03,749
879		-for 25 pips for the week. And we're looking at possibly
880		-
881		-221
882		-00:16:03,749 ~-~-> 00:16:08,549
883		-making 6% return for the month, and we're risking 2% per
884		-
885		-222
886		-00:16:08,549 ~-~-> 00:16:13,079
887		-trade and 30 PIP stops are used, and the monthly goal only
888		-
889		-223
890		-00:16:13,079 ~-~-> 00:16:18,269
891		-equates to 90 pips for the entire month. Now, if you look at
892		-
893		-224
894		-00:16:18,269 ~-~-> 00:16:20,759
895		-these numbers, okay, this is a spreadsheet so there's going
896		-
897		-225
898		-00:16:20,759 ~-~-> 00:16:25,739
899		-to be a little bit of, you know, rounding issue but 23 pips,
900		-
901		-226
902		-00:16:26,069 ~-~-> 00:16:30,509
903		-okay, per week, roughly we'll just call 25 pips that would
904		-
905		-227
906		-00:16:30,509 ~-~-> 00:16:34,649
907		-equate to 6% return per month. If you start with 20 $500. In
908		-
909		-228
910		-00:16:34,649 ~-~-> 00:16:38,909
911		-one year, your account goes to over $5,000, which is more
912		-
913		-229
914		-00:16:38,909 ~-~-> 00:16:44,069
915		-than doubling. After two years, it goes to $10,122. Okay, so
916		-
917		-230
918		-00:16:44,069 ~-~-> 00:16:45,929
919		-you see, essentially you're doubling your money every single
920		-
921		-231
922		-00:16:45,929 ~-~-> 00:16:49,019
923		-year, you're only risking 2% and you're only looking for 25
924		-
925		-232
926		-00:16:49,019 ~-~-> 00:16:52,679
927		-pips per week. Now notice over here we have daily calm,
928		-
929		-233
930		-00:16:52,889 ~-~-> 00:16:57,899
931		-okay, this is more or less to stimulate the idea that if you
932		-
933		-234
934		-00:16:57,899 ~-~-> 00:17:02,009
935		-trade on a daily basis, and you scout I don't really teach
936		-
937		-235
938		-00:17:02,969 ~-~-> 00:17:06,779
939		-traders to go in and try to scalp scalp five pips. But just
940		-
941		-236
942		-00:17:06,779 ~-~-> 00:17:08,639
943		-for the sake of argument we're going to look at you know,
944		-
945		-237
946		-00:17:08,999 ~-~-> 00:17:12,179
947		-every day if you scalp five pips, that would give you your
948		-
949		-238
950		-00:17:12,179 ~-~-> 00:17:14,939
951		-25 pips for the week. Obviously, if you're trading the best
952		-
953		-239
954		-00:17:14,939 ~-~-> 00:17:16,859
955		-days of the week, which were Tuesday, Wednesday and
956		-
957		-240
958		-00:17:16,859 ~-~-> 00:17:21,569
959		-Thursday, regardless of what pair you trade, eight pips per
960		-
961		-241
962		-00:17:21,569 ~-~-> 00:17:24,509
963		-day, three times a week would give you your goal for the
964		-
965		-242
966		-00:17:24,509 ~-~-> 00:17:27,989
967		-week and obviously 11 should be around rough rounded up like
968		-
969		-243
970		-00:17:27,989 ~-~-> 00:17:32,909
971		-12 twice a week would give you your weekly PIP haul. So you
972		-
973		-244
974		-00:17:32,909 ~-~-> 00:17:39,419
975		-can see over time your money is growing steadily. And while
976		-
977		-245
978		-00:17:39,419 ~-~-> 00:17:42,059
979		-it's not a whole lot of money, you got to look at what
980		-
981		-246
982		-00:17:42,059 ~-~-> 00:17:43,979
983		-you're starting with and what you're really aiming for.
984		-
985		-247
986		-00:17:44,009 ~-~-> 00:17:46,859
987		-Okay, and I think 25 pips per week if you're brand new
988		-
989		-248
990		-00:17:46,859 ~-~-> 00:17:53,879
991		-trader is an absolutely wonderful goal to start with. Okay,
992		-
993		-249
994		-00:17:53,879 ~-~-> 00:17:57,179
995		-look at another case studies is 50 pips per week, okay, and
996		-
997		-250
998		-00:17:57,179 ~-~-> 00:17:59,819
999		-we're gonna be targeting 10% per month sign with the same
1000		-
1001		-251
1002		-00:17:59,819 ~-~-> 00:18:03,389
1003		-account. 20 $500 now this time we're going to exercise the
1004		-
1005		-252
1006		-00:18:03,389 ~-~-> 00:18:10,799
1007		-risk exposure of one and a half one and a half percent 30
1008		-
1009		-253
1010		-00:18:10,799 ~-~-> 00:18:14,039
1011		-pips per stop, and a monthly goal in terms of pips is 200
1012		-
1013		-254
1014		-00:18:14,039 ~-~-> 00:18:17,639
1015		-pips and the weekly goal is 50 pips per week, and if you
1016		-
1017		-255
1018		-00:18:17,639 ~-~-> 00:18:21,659
1019		-trade everyday scalping 10 pips per day, equates to 50 pips.
1020		-
1021		-256
1022		-00:18:22,049 ~-~-> 00:18:24,659
1023		-And three times Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday looking for
1024		-
1025		-257
1026		-00:18:24,659 ~-~-> 00:18:30,659
1027		-17 pips per day or two times for the week at 25 pips per
1028		-
1029		-258
1030		-00:18:31,109 ~-~-> 00:18:37,829
1031		-trade. The first year your account would move to $7,846 and
1032		-
1033		-259
1034		-00:18:37,829 ~-~-> 00:18:43,739
1035		-then in second year, it would be at $24,624 not bad and
1036		-
1037		-260
1038		-00:18:43,739 ~-~-> 00:18:45,719
1039		-you're not really hitting homeruns yet guys, are you it's
1040		-
1041		-261
1042		-00:18:45,719 ~-~-> 00:18:52,589
1043		-only 50 pips. Okay, look at a case study where we're looking
1044		-
1045		-262
1046		-00:18:52,589 ~-~-> 00:18:56,549
1047		-for 75 pips per week. Now I can tell you, you can build a
1048		-
1049		-263
1050		-00:18:56,549 ~-~-> 00:19:01,049
1051		-career on this, okay. 75 pips is absolutely Astonishing if
1052		-
1053		-264
1054		-00:19:01,049 ~-~-> 00:19:06,029
1055		-you use it the right way 10% per month, risking only 1% per
1056		-
1057		-265
1058		-00:19:06,029 ~-~-> 00:19:11,609
1059		-trade using a 30 PIP stop loss, the goal 300 pips 75 pips
1060		-
1061		-266
1062		-00:19:11,609 ~-~-> 00:19:15,269
1063		-per week, if you day trade every single day 15 pips would be
1064		-
1065		-267
1066		-00:19:15,269 ~-~-> 00:19:18,959
1067		-your goal 25 if you're trading three times per week and 38
1068		-
1069		-268
1070		-00:19:19,559 ~-~-> 00:19:23,969
1071		-pips twice a week with equate to your goal and in one year,
1072		-
1073		-269
1074		-00:19:23,969 ~-~-> 00:19:29,279
1075		-your 20 $500 would essentially grow to 7846. And again
1076		-
1077		-270
1078		-00:19:29,279 ~-~-> 00:19:31,769
1079		-$24,624
1080		-
1081		-271
1082		-00:19:37,980 ~-~-> 00:19:40,560
1083		-modular thinking steady progress.
1084		-
1085		-272
1086		-00:19:41,490 ~-~-> 00:19:46,620
1087		-Now small consistency can still surprise you. It takes an
1088		-
1089		-273
1090		-00:19:46,620 ~-~-> 00:19:50,640
1091		-exponential mindset, little things over a period of time
1092		-
1093		-274
1094		-00:19:50,790 ~-~-> 00:19:54,870
1095		-equals big results. Building your trading plan flexibility,
1096		-
1097		-275
1098		-00:19:55,140 ~-~-> 00:19:58,020
1099		-you're not always going to see it on the timeline that you
1100		-
1101		-276
1102		-00:19:58,020 ~-~-> 00:20:02,610
1103		-want. You might have a weekly goal that may require shorter
1104		-
1105		-277
1106		-00:20:02,610 ~-~-> 00:20:07,020
1107		-term day trades or scalps to achieve. Do not force yourself
1108		-
1109		-278
1110		-00:20:07,020 ~-~-> 00:20:09,510
1111		-into hunting or believing you need to make your goals daily
1112		-
1113		-279
1114		-00:20:09,510 ~-~-> 00:20:14,220
1115		-and or weekly. Your weekly goals might fall short a week or
1116		-
1117		-280
1118		-00:20:14,220 ~-~-> 00:20:18,090
1119		-two, but still might be met in the course of the same month.
1120		-
1121		-281
1122		-00:20:18,450 ~-~-> 00:20:23,520
1123		-It may just average out guys. Your monthly goal might
1124		-
1125		-282
1126		-00:20:23,520 ~-~-> 00:20:26,700
1127		-average out over the quarter or over the entire year. Don't
1128		-
1129		-283
1130		-00:20:26,700 ~-~-> 00:20:30,540
1131		-be so rigid and allow the market to pay you when and how it
1132		-
1133		-284
1134		-00:20:30,540 ~-~-> 00:20:37,110
1135		-will. Your goals might fall short of your forecast and
1136		-
1137		-285
1138		-00:20:37,110 ~-~-> 00:20:41,310
1139		-hopes. However, do not be disappointed if this occurs, you
1140		-
1141		-286
1142		-00:20:41,310 ~-~-> 00:20:43,590
1143		-will still be heading in the right direction and that's
1144		-
1145		-287
1146		-00:20:43,590 ~-~-> 00:20:51,240
1147		-really what matters. Success without homeruns Is it
1148		-
1149		-288
1150		-00:20:51,240 ~-~-> 00:20:54,690
1151		-possible? Well, let's look at this. This is kind of lost the
1152		-
1153		-289
1154		-00:20:54,690 ~-~-> 00:21:00,720
1155		-I admit, but this is what could happen. 20% per month Now
1156		-
1157		-290
1158		-00:21:00,720 ~-~-> 00:21:04,530
1159		-it's rather impressive analysis. That's another way that you
1160		-
1161		-291
1162		-00:21:04,650 ~-~-> 00:21:08,190
1163		-many fantasize about. We're going to be risking 2% per trade
1164		-
1165		-292
1166		-00:21:08,190 ~-~-> 00:21:12,150
1167		-maximum. And now we have an understanding what we knew using
1168		-
1169		-293
1170		-00:21:12,150 ~-~-> 00:21:15,360
1171		-our trading plan and we have some consistency. We understand
1172		-
1173		-294
1174		-00:21:15,360 ~-~-> 00:21:17,940
1175		-how to use a lower timeframe so we can use now 20 pips stop
1176		-
1177		-295
1178		-00:21:17,940 ~-~-> 00:21:22,860
1179		-losses. The monthly goal is 200 pips still in terms of many
1180		-
1181		-296
1182		-00:21:22,860 ~-~-> 00:21:26,460
1183		-expectations of traders, that's very, very modest, weekly
1184		-
1185		-297
1186		-00:21:26,460 ~-~-> 00:21:30,120
1187		-PIP goal 50 pips and if you break that down, it could be
1188		-
1189		-298
1190		-00:21:30,120 ~-~-> 00:21:33,300
1191		-done over a course of everyday 10 pips three times a week is
1192		-
1193		-299
1194		-00:21:33,300 ~-~-> 00:21:38,910
1195		-17 pips and 25 times two per week 20 $500 in one year gross
1196		-
1197		-300
1198		-00:21:38,910 ~-~-> 00:21:45,810
1199		-of $22,290 and in two years, it goes to 198,000 and in 34
1200		-
1201		-301
1202		-00:21:45,810 ~-~-> 00:21:49,890
1203		-months, gross to what everyone fantasizes about in trading
1204		-
1205		-302
1206		-00:21:49,920 ~-~-> 00:21:51,210
1207		-the $1 million mark.
1208		-
1209		-303
1210		-00:21:58,140 ~-~-> 00:22:01,950
1211		-Keep something pay yourself You have to learn to be
1212		-
1213		-304
1214		-00:22:01,950 ~-~-> 00:22:04,950
1215		-methodical about taking first profit guys, no one's going to
1216		-
1217		-305
1218		-00:22:04,950 ~-~-> 00:22:07,080
1219		-pay you, your broker is not going to take first profit for
1220		-
1221		-306
1222		-00:22:07,080 ~-~-> 00:22:09,000
1223		-you. They're not going to scale some of your position and
1224		-
1225		-307
1226		-00:22:09,000 ~-~-> 00:22:12,090
1227		-make sure you get some profit out of a winning trade. It's
1228		-
1229		-308
1230		-00:22:12,090 ~-~-> 00:22:15,120
1231		-your responsibility. So before taking any trade, it's
1232		-
1233		-309
1234		-00:22:15,120 ~-~-> 00:22:18,480
1235		-crucial for you to know at what level you will take first
1236		-
1237		-310
1238		-00:22:18,480 ~-~-> 00:22:22,830
1239		-profit and then start to reduce or remove risk altogether.
1240		-
1241		-311
1242		-00:22:24,600 ~-~-> 00:22:27,540
1243		-Limiting risk after taking half of your original position
1244		-
1245		-312
1246		-00:22:27,540 ~-~-> 00:22:31,440
1247		-off will remove emotional and psychological pressures you
1248		-
1249		-313
1250		-00:22:31,440 ~-~-> 00:22:35,310
1251		-may feel while the position is open. If you take first
1252		-
1253		-314
1254		-00:22:35,310 ~-~-> 00:22:40,530
1255		-profit, that will absolutely remove all of the rush for you
1256		-
1257		-315
1258		-00:22:40,530 ~-~-> 00:22:42,540
1259		-to be able to close the trade because how many times you've
1260		-
1261		-316
1262		-00:22:42,540 ~-~-> 00:22:45,540
1263		-been in a trade, even a demo account if you guys are new,
1264		-
1265		-317
1266		-00:22:45,780 ~-~-> 00:22:47,760
1267		-and you see a profit and you just want to close it out
1268		-
1269		-318
1270		-00:22:47,760 ~-~-> 00:22:50,010
1271		-because you just want to see it in your account as
1272		-
1273		-319
1274		-00:22:50,010 ~-~-> 00:22:52,950
1275		-registering as a profit. Okay, when you take some off and
1276		-
1277		-320
1278		-00:22:52,950 ~-~-> 00:22:55,500
1279		-you split your position in half, take some of it off and
1280		-
1281		-321
1282		-00:22:55,500 ~-~-> 00:22:58,260
1283		-move your stop to break even or reduce it to half of what
1284		-
1285		-322
1286		-00:22:58,260 ~-~-> 00:23:03,150
1287		-your original profit was. That's a wonderful position to be
1288		-
1289		-323
1290		-00:23:03,150 ~-~-> 00:23:05,940
1291		-in because now no matter what you either make half of your
1292		-
1293		-324
1294		-00:23:05,940 ~-~-> 00:23:10,320
1295		-first positions profit potential when it was first profit,
1296		-
1297		-325
1298		-00:23:10,890 ~-~-> 00:23:14,340
1299		-or you stop at an event and you collect your first you know
1300		-
1301		-326
1302		-00:23:14,340 ~-~-> 00:23:18,840
1303		-first profit and it was it taking first profit at a
1304		-
1305		-327
1306		-00:23:18,840 ~-~-> 00:23:21,750
1307		-predetermined level will assist in building confidence and
1308		-
1309		-328
1310		-00:23:21,750 ~-~-> 00:23:25,410
1311		-removes the sting of the trade losing should it reverse on
1312		-
1313		-329
1314		-00:23:25,410 ~-~-> 00:23:28,170
1315		-you and stop you out of breakeven. How many times you had a
1316		-
1317		-330
1318		-00:23:28,170 ~-~-> 00:23:30,720
1319		-winning trade and then go against you and become a losing
1320		-
1321		-331
1322		-00:23:30,720 ~-~-> 00:23:33,840
1323		-trade? Okay, I know that's like, I'm not immune to that I
1324		-
1325		-332
1326		-00:23:33,840 ~-~-> 00:23:37,440
1327		-experienced that. The greatest thing you can do is learn to
1328		-
1329		-333
1330		-00:23:37,440 ~-~-> 00:23:45,090
1331		-take profits take first profit, and scale. Continuing our
1332		-
1333		-334
1334		-00:23:45,090 ~-~-> 00:23:47,910
1335		-theme success without homeruns Now let's take a look at an
1336		-
1337		-335
1338		-00:23:47,910 ~-~-> 00:23:50,730
1339		-example. Let's assume for a moment we are a trader that now
1340		-
1341		-336
1342		-00:23:50,730 ~-~-> 00:23:56,370
1343		-uses two positions. Okay, to enter on a trade. In other
1344		-
1345		-337
1346		-00:23:56,370 ~-~-> 00:23:59,970
1347		-words, we take a maximum of 2% risk and we split it in half
1348		-
1349		-338
1350		-00:24:00,000 ~-~-> 00:24:04,560
1351		-If the first portion of a trade we take first profit at 30
1352		-
1353		-339
1354		-00:24:04,560 ~-~-> 00:24:08,190
1355		-pips, we're going to be risking 20 pips. So we're already
1356		-
1357		-340
1358		-00:24:08,190 ~-~-> 00:24:11,730
1359		-risking 1.5 to one reward the risk.
1360		-
1361		-341
1362		-00:24:12,390 ~-~-> 00:24:14,280
1363		-Okay, so we're making, we're making a little bit more
1364		-
1365		-342
1366		-00:24:14,579 ~-~-> 00:24:18,839
1367		-than what we're risking for the initial first profit. And if
1368		-
1369		-343
1370		-00:24:18,839 ~-~-> 00:24:21,539
1371		-we just did that alone in the second portion of our trade,
1372		-
1373		-344
1374		-00:24:22,139 ~-~-> 00:24:24,809
1375		-we moved to break even and it stops out every single time we
1376		-
1377		-345
1378		-00:24:24,809 ~-~-> 00:24:27,359
1379		-trade for the entire year, our account would still double.
1380		-
1381		-346
1382		-00:24:27,869 ~-~-> 00:24:33,779
1383		-Okay. Risking 1% it would equate to 6% so that's still good.
1384		-
1385		-347
1386		-00:24:34,979 ~-~-> 00:24:37,619
1387		-But now let's look what happens if we allow the second
1388		-
1389		-348
1390		-00:24:37,619 ~-~-> 00:24:44,579
1391		-portion of our trade to run. What happens if the second
1392		-
1393		-349
1394		-00:24:44,579 ~-~-> 00:24:47,189
1395		-portion captures the average daily range? Now the average
1396		-
1397		-350
1398		-00:24:47,189 ~-~-> 00:24:49,619
1399		-daily range for the sake of argument we're just going to use
1400		-
1401		-351
1402		-00:24:49,619 ~-~-> 00:24:50,459
1403		-is 100 pips.
1404		-
1405		-352
1406		-00:24:52,200 ~-~-> 00:24:55,020
1407		-Now, that would equate to if you just did this
1408		-
1409		-353
1410		-00:24:56,759 ~-~-> 00:24:59,879
1411		-once per week, okay, now don't look at the daily three
1412		-
1413		-354
1414		-00:24:59,879 ~-~-> 00:25:02,309
1415		-times. For a week or twice a week on numbers, we'll block
1416		-
1417		-355
1418		-00:25:02,309 ~-~-> 00:25:06,299
1419		-that out here. But the weekly number that 100 that's going
1420		-
1421		-356
1422		-00:25:06,299 ~-~-> 00:25:09,479
1423		-to be more or less equate to one solid trade for the week
1424		-
1425		-357
1426		-00:25:09,509 ~-~-> 00:25:13,829
1427		-where you nail down one average daily range or collect 100
1428		-
1429		-358
1430		-00:25:13,829 ~-~-> 00:25:18,869
1431		-pips in other words in terms of intraday trade. That would
1432		-
1433		-359
1434		-00:25:18,869 ~-~-> 00:25:21,869
1435		-equate to 20%.
1436		-
1437		-360
1438		-00:25:23,940 ~-~-> 00:25:24,660
1439		-Now think
1440		-
1441		-361
1442		-00:25:25,920 ~-~-> 00:25:32,160
1443		-20% plus 6%. What are you making? We'll get that in a
1444		-
1445		-362
1446		-00:25:32,160 ~-~-> 00:25:37,830
1447		-moment. But if we able to do this, our money 1% risk grows
1448		-
1449		-363
1450		-00:25:38,040 ~-~-> 00:25:45,180
1451		-exponentially. Now taking both of those examples together
1452		-
1453		-364
1454		-00:25:45,180 ~-~-> 00:25:48,600
1455		-and assuming ideal scenarios at the end, or both are
1456		-
1457		-365
1458		-00:25:48,600 ~-~-> 00:25:53,610
1459		-profitable, that would equate to about 26% return your
1460		-
1461		-366
1462		-00:25:53,610 ~-~-> 00:25:56,460
1463		-20 $500 would grow to $40,000 in one year
1464		-
1465		-367
1466		-00:25:58,109 ~-~-> 00:25:59,639
1467		-and 640,000 in two years.
1468		-
1469		-368
1470		-00:26:01,829 ~-~-> 00:26:05,219
1471		-Notice that you're really not even risking more than 320
1472		-
1473		-369
1474		-00:26:05,219 ~-~-> 00:26:06,719
1475		-average per Pip.
1476		-
1477		-370
1478		-00:26:47,400 ~-~-> 00:26:51,480
1479		-Alright guys interest rates. That is the market's driving
1480		-
1481		-371
1482		-00:26:51,480 ~-~-> 00:26:53,850
1483		-force, okay? If you've never learned about interest rates,
1484		-
1485		-372
1486		-00:26:53,850 ~-~-> 00:26:55,020
1487		-you're gonna learn a little bit of that in this
1488		-
1489		-373
1490		-00:26:55,020 ~-~-> 00:26:58,170
1491		-presentation. But what makes the markets go around whether
1492		-
1493		-374
1494		-00:26:58,170 ~-~-> 00:27:01,770
1495		-it be stocks, commodities, you No forex it's all interest
1496		-
1497		-375
1498		-00:27:01,770 ~-~-> 00:27:05,460
1499		-rates need to get to know the interest rate market okay
1500		-
1501		-376
1502		-00:27:05,460 ~-~-> 00:27:11,460
1503		-because that will be the key to unlocking the mind. The
1504		-
1505		-377
1506		-00:27:11,460 ~-~-> 00:27:15,240
1507		-entire global markets are interconnected and they spin on
1508		-
1509		-378
1510		-00:27:15,240 ~-~-> 00:27:20,760
1511		-the gyrations in the interest rate market. Each country we
1512		-
1513		-379
1514		-00:27:20,760 ~-~-> 00:27:23,790
1515		-trade currencies with has their own interest rates and thus
1516		-
1517		-380
1518		-00:27:23,790 ~-~-> 00:27:26,940
1519		-these rates influence the demand or disenchantment with its
1520		-
1521		-381
1522		-00:27:27,180 ~-~-> 00:27:32,460
1523		-own currency. The market will always seek yield and the
1524		-
1525		-382
1526		-00:27:32,460 ~-~-> 00:27:38,430
1527		-higher the yield, the bigger the demand on average. There
1528		-
1529		-383
1530		-00:27:38,430 ~-~-> 00:27:41,100
1531		-are several types of interest rates that traders can track
1532		-
1533		-384
1534		-00:27:41,100 ~-~-> 00:27:46,440
1535		-and utilize to determine a trade idea. Understanding how
1536		-
1537		-385
1538		-00:27:46,440 ~-~-> 00:27:50,310
1539		-they trade and the yields will make long term trends easier
1540		-
1541		-386
1542		-00:27:50,310 ~-~-> 00:27:51,000
1543		-to determine.
1544		-
1545		-387
1546		-00:27:55,980 ~-~-> 00:27:58,050
1547		-Interest Rate spreads and differentials.
1548		-
1549		-388
1550		-00:27:59,580 ~-~-> 00:28:01,830
1551		-Alright guys, you Need to track the country's overnight
1552		-
1553		-389
1554		-00:28:01,830 ~-~-> 00:28:06,060
1555		-lending rates? Okay, that's an it's one of the core
1556		-
1557		-390
1558		-00:28:06,060 ~-~-> 00:28:10,320
1559		-principles to having long term trend analysis. And if you
1560		-
1561		-391
1562		-00:28:10,980 ~-~-> 00:28:15,180
1563		-just Google any country and look for historical data, you
1564		-
1565		-392
1566		-00:28:15,180 ~-~-> 00:28:18,480
1567		-can get that keep a spreadsheet. And you can do a whole lot
1568		-
1569		-393
1570		-00:28:18,480 ~-~-> 00:28:21,960
1571		-with that information. It's not my goal to do that here. You
1572		-
1573		-394
1574		-00:28:21,960 ~-~-> 00:28:24,600
1575		-can find sources on the internet to actually do these for
1576		-
1577		-395
1578		-00:28:24,600 ~-~-> 00:28:30,720
1579		-you. But the currency markets, they more or less trend on
1580		-
1581		-396
1582		-00:28:30,720 ~-~-> 00:28:35,340
1583		-long term basis based on interest rates. And understanding
1584		-
1585		-397
1586		-00:28:35,340 ~-~-> 00:28:38,130
1587		-which country has higher interest rates and which have lower
1588		-
1589		-398
1590		-00:28:38,130 ~-~-> 00:28:41,820
1591		-rates can be a differential play or carry trade. And not
1592		-
1593		-399
1594		-00:28:41,820 ~-~-> 00:28:45,450
1595		-only can you trade profit by directional bias in your
1596		-
1597		-400
1598		-00:28:45,450 ~-~-> 00:28:48,330
1599		-trading, but it also could be paid interest on top of that.
1600		-
1601		-401
1602		-00:28:50,640 ~-~-> 00:28:54,030
1603		-If the country sees lower interest rates, this will weaken
1604		-
1605		-402
1606		-00:28:54,030 ~-~-> 00:28:57,930
1607		-the base currency. At the con On the contrary, if the rates
1608		-
1609		-403
1610		-00:28:57,930 ~-~-> 00:29:00,390
1611		-are increasing, this will prop up to come on trees in
1612		-
1613		-404
1614		-00:29:00,390 ~-~-> 00:29:09,150
1615		-currency, million dollar futures insights, yes, seasonal
1616		-
1617		-405
1618		-00:29:09,150 ~-~-> 00:29:12,900
1619		-tendencies. Now, some of you folks have already been
1620		-
1621		-406
1622		-00:29:12,900 ~-~-> 00:29:16,530
1623		-introduced to this graph this is the British Pound seasonal
1624		-
1625		-407
1626		-00:29:16,530 ~-~-> 00:29:21,780
1627		-tendency is a chart that I've had held dear to me for many
1628		-
1629		-408
1630		-00:29:21,780 ~-~-> 00:29:25,980
1631		-years since 1995. I got this from Larry Williams
1632		-
1633		-409
1634		-00:29:26,310 ~-~-> 00:29:27,030
1635		-course.
1636		-
1637		-410
1638		-00:29:27,449 ~-~-> 00:29:32,489
1639		-And it was among other seasonal tendencies, but because I've
1640		-
1641		-411
1642		-00:29:32,489 ~-~-> 00:29:36,479
1643		-grown to trade the British Pound more than any other pair.
1644		-
1645		-412
1646		-00:29:38,849 ~-~-> 00:29:42,569
1647		-This seasonal tendency chart is kind of like, it gives you
1648		-
1649		-413
1650		-00:29:42,569 ~-~-> 00:29:46,769
1651		-like a macro roadmap of what should transpire. Now, one of
1652		-
1653		-414
1654		-00:29:46,769 ~-~-> 00:29:49,709
1655		-the most impressive concepts you can learn is the nature of
1656		-
1657		-415
1658		-00:29:49,709 ~-~-> 00:29:53,879
1659		-seasonal tendencies in the marketplace. The commodity market
1660		-
1661		-416
1662		-00:29:53,879 ~-~-> 00:29:56,909
1663		-is one such market that has a very cyclical seasonal
1664		-
1665		-417
1666		-00:29:56,909 ~-~-> 00:30:00,629
1667		-tendencies that have an uncanny ability to forecast Major
1668		-
1669		-418
1670		-00:30:00,629 ~-~-> 00:30:05,129
1671		-price swings. Now I have used seasonal tendencies for nearly
1672		-
1673		-419
1674		-00:30:05,129 ~-~-> 00:30:09,209
1675		-20 years and they still amaze me. One such seasonal tendency
1676		-
1677		-420
1678		-00:30:09,209 ~-~-> 00:30:11,849
1679		-is the British pound to make a major low in February to
1680		-
1681		-421
1682		-00:30:11,849 ~-~-> 00:30:16,769
1683		-March, June, September, October in December, and major highs
1684		-
1685		-422
1686		-00:30:16,769 ~-~-> 00:30:17,639
1687		-in April to May.
1688		-
1689		-423
1690		-00:30:20,819 ~-~-> 00:30:23,369
1691		-This is also seen in stocks as well.
1692		-
1693		-424
1694		-00:30:29,910 ~-~-> 00:30:34,650
1695		-Let's look at the comparison of the British pound. And since
1696		-
1697		-425
1698		-00:30:34,650 ~-~-> 00:30:37,530
1699		-we've already learned at the interest rate market is what
1700		-
1701		-426
1702		-00:30:37,950 ~-~-> 00:30:41,190
1703		-more or less pushes the markets all around. We're going to
1704		-
1705		-427
1706		-00:30:41,190 ~-~-> 00:30:44,280
1707		-look at the US Treasuries. Yes, it does have a seasonal
1708		-
1709		-428
1710		-00:30:44,280 ~-~-> 00:30:48,510
1711		-tendency. Now, I want to draw your attention to the fact
1712		-
1713		-429
1714		-00:30:48,510 ~-~-> 00:30:52,410
1715		-that usually in April and May, if you look at the British
1716		-
1717		-430
1718		-00:30:52,410 ~-~-> 00:30:57,150
1719		-Pound chart on the left, you can see that there's a red line
1720		-
1721		-431
1722		-00:30:57,540 ~-~-> 00:31:01,110
1723		-and a blue line. Okay. And what that This is measuring the
1724		-
1725		-432
1726		-00:31:01,110 ~-~-> 00:31:04,440
1727		-bullish years and the bearish years together to get a
1728		-
1729		-433
1730		-00:31:04,440 ~-~-> 00:31:09,210
1731		-composite index. And the blue line is the 25 year historical
1732		-
1733		-434
1734		-00:31:09,210 ~-~-> 00:31:13,410
1735		-data. And the red line is a 15 year historical data. So you
1736		-
1737		-435
1738		-00:31:13,410 ~-~-> 00:31:14,460
1739		-can see over
1740		-
1741		-436
1742		-00:31:15,929 ~-~-> 00:31:18,809
1743		-overall basically the seasonal tendencies pretty solid.
1744		-
1745		-437
1746		-00:31:20,730 ~-~-> 00:31:23,520
1747		-It usually makes a rally of some kind late
1748		-
1749		-438
1750		-00:31:25,049 ~-~-> 00:31:30,359
1751		-February, early March, and trades up into the April May time
1752		-
1753		-439
1754		-00:31:30,359 ~-~-> 00:31:32,279
1755		-period where it makes a significant high and then trades
1756		-
1757		-440
1758		-00:31:32,279 ~-~-> 00:31:38,339
1759		-down into the June timeframe. Well, if the bonds are
1760		-
1761		-441
1762		-00:31:38,339 ~-~-> 00:31:43,409
1763		-inverse, okay, in other words, as currencies go down, the
1764		-
1765		-442
1766		-00:31:43,409 ~-~-> 00:31:45,749
1767		-bond market or the futures market will go up.
1768		-
1769		-443
1770		-00:31:45,930 ~-~-> 00:31:46,290
1771		-And
1772		-
1773		-444
1774		-00:31:46,320 ~-~-> 00:31:50,760
1775		-while the bonds go up, the yield is inverted. So the yield
1776		-
1777		-445
1778		-00:31:50,760 ~-~-> 00:31:53,100
1779		-would be going down while the bond goes up. And for
1780		-
1781		-446
1782		-00:31:53,100 ~-~-> 00:31:58,110
1783		-instance, let's look at the April May time period on the
1784		-
1785		-447
1786		-00:31:58,110 ~-~-> 00:32:01,770
1787		-bond and you can see that it Has seasonal tendency to rally
1788		-
1789		-448
1790		-00:32:02,280 ~-~-> 00:32:05,460
1791		-that would indicate that interest rates would be going down.
1792		-
1793		-449
1794		-00:32:05,850 ~-~-> 00:32:10,530
1795		-Okay? Now if interest rates are going down, that would drive
1796		-
1797		-450
1798		-00:32:10,530 ~-~-> 00:32:13,950
1799		-What? currencies lower, there won't be any demand. So what
1800		-
1801		-451
1802		-00:32:13,950 ~-~-> 00:32:16,500
1803		-will they be doing? It'll be a flight to quality that will
1804		-
1805		-452
1806		-00:32:16,500 ~-~-> 00:32:20,340
1807		-rally the dollar. Okay? And that would be essentially a risk
1808		-
1809		-453
1810		-00:32:20,340 ~-~-> 00:32:26,820
1811		-off scenario. Now look at January and February. Okay. In the
1812		-
1813		-454
1814		-00:32:26,820 ~-~-> 00:32:31,290
1815		-bond market, we see the bonds are sliding down into the
1816		-
1817		-455
1818		-00:32:31,290 ~-~-> 00:32:36,030
1819		-April May time period. That means that interest rates would
1820		-
1821		-456
1822		-00:32:36,030 ~-~-> 00:32:40,380
1823		-be increasing. Now, if interest rates are increasing, that's
1824		-
1825		-457
1826		-00:32:40,380 ~-~-> 00:32:43,020
1827		-going to have demand for foreign currency and it'll be a
1828		-
1829		-458
1830		-00:32:43,020 ~-~-> 00:32:46,830
1831		-risk on scenario the dollar index will be falling at that
1832		-
1833		-459
1834		-00:32:46,830 ~-~-> 00:32:52,440
1835		-time period. Okay. Look at January February time period. And
1836		-
1837		-460
1838		-00:32:52,440 ~-~-> 00:32:57,240
1839		-you can see where in the 15 year basis, it was making lows
1840		-
1841		-461
1842		-00:32:57,270 ~-~-> 00:33:00,240
1843		-and even in a 25 year basis, it was making lows where it Did
1844		-
1845		-462
1846		-00:33:00,240 ~-~-> 00:33:04,830
1847		-rally up, and essentially around the march time period, it
1848		-
1849		-463
1850		-00:33:04,830 ~-~-> 00:33:07,920
1851		-got in sync and maybe it's low, and then it'll trade up into
1852		-
1853		-464
1854		-00:33:07,920 ~-~-> 00:33:11,640
1855		-that spring time period, making a high. So study these
1856		-
1857		-465
1858		-00:33:11,640 ~-~-> 00:33:14,610
1859		-charts and you can see there's a huge advantage of having
1860		-
1861		-466
1862		-00:33:14,610 ~-~-> 00:33:18,450
1863		-insight like this, because it can put you on one track to
1864		-
1865		-467
1866		-00:33:18,450 ~-~-> 00:33:21,240
1867		-finding a long term trend. And this waiting for interest
1868		-
1869		-468
1870		-00:33:21,240 ~-~-> 00:33:22,590
1871		-rates to get in sync with this.
1872		-
1873		-469
1874		-00:33:27,390 ~-~-> 00:33:28,920
1875		-co2 and commercial trends.
1876		-
1877		-470
1878		-00:33:30,330 ~-~-> 00:33:31,710
1879		-tracking the smart money.
1880		-
1881		-471
1882		-00:33:33,359 ~-~-> 00:33:36,539
1883		-Okay, guys, you've probably seen this a few times in some
1884		-
1885		-472
1886		-00:33:36,539 ~-~-> 00:33:40,799
1887		-other tutorials. But mainly, you wouldn't be looking at
1888		-
1889		-473
1890		-00:33:40,799 ~-~-> 00:33:43,229
1891		-higher timeframe charts and you want to spend some time
1892		-
1893		-474
1894		-00:33:43,289 ~-~-> 00:33:46,079
1895		-analyzing the net positions of the large commercial traders.
1896		-
1897		-475
1898		-00:33:46,409 ~-~-> 00:33:49,229
1899		-You want to be looking at the trend where their net
1900		-
1901		-476
1902		-00:33:49,229 ~-~-> 00:33:52,979
1903		-positions are moving, are they continuously moving higher
1904		-
1905		-477
1906		-00:33:52,979 ~-~-> 00:33:57,389
1907		-low or higher, lower overall, bearish or bullish? In other
1908		-
1909		-478
1910		-00:33:57,389 ~-~-> 00:34:01,439
1911		-words, are these swinging bullish Above the baseline zero
1912		-
1913		-479
1914		-00:34:01,439 ~-~-> 00:34:06,539
1915		-line, okay doing uptrend or are they doing that during
1916		-
1917		-480
1918		-00:34:06,569 ~-~-> 00:34:08,969
1919		-downtrend? Okay. And what we're doing we're looking at the
1920		-
1921		-481
1922		-00:34:08,969 ~-~-> 00:34:11,609
1923		-higher timeframe weekly chart and determine if the price is
1924		-
1925		-482
1926		-00:34:11,609 ~-~-> 00:34:14,939
1927		-going higher. And if it is, you won't be waiting for the
1928		-
1929		-483
1930		-00:34:14,969 ~-~-> 00:34:18,779
1931		-commercials to be net long or extremely lightening up on
1932		-
1933		-484
1934		-00:34:18,779 ~-~-> 00:34:22,049
1935		-their net short positions because that would equate to a
1936		-
1937		-485
1938		-00:34:22,049 ~-~-> 00:34:27,779
1939		-bullish scenario. The trend on the weekly chart and the
1940		-
1941		-486
1942		-00:34:27,779 ~-~-> 00:34:31,259
1943		-swings from net long to net short are very easy to spot and
1944		-
1945		-487
1946		-00:34:31,259 ~-~-> 00:34:34,319
1947		-determine the long to intermediate term trends or direction.
1948		-
1949		-488
1950		-00:34:36,599 ~-~-> 00:34:39,269
1951		-Looking for trades in this trend or directional bias will
1952		-
1953		-489
1954		-00:34:39,269 ~-~-> 00:34:42,089
1955		-further increase your odds of capturing trades with large
1956		-
1957		-490
1958		-00:34:42,089 ~-~-> 00:34:44,219
1959		-institutional sponsorship behind the moves.
1960		-
1961		-491
1962		-00:34:48,480 ~-~-> 00:34:49,500
1963		-trading the news
1964		-
1965		-492
1966		-00:34:50,850 ~-~-> 00:34:53,520
1967		-All right, I basically look at trading the news or
1968		-
1969		-493
1970		-00:34:54,120 ~-~-> 00:35:00,780
1971		-news releases as volatility injections. Okay. Don't fear
1972		-
1973		-494
1974		-00:35:00,780 ~-~-> 00:35:04,320
1975		-news, but I certainly respect it. There are certain reports
1976		-
1977		-495
1978		-00:35:04,320 ~-~-> 00:35:07,350
1979		-and events that I more or less will step outside of and more
1980		-
1981		-496
1982		-00:35:07,350 ~-~-> 00:35:10,230
1983		-trade. But one of the most difficult ways to trade the
1984		-
1985		-497
1986		-00:35:10,230 ~-~-> 00:35:14,580
1987		-markets is to try to trade the news releases themselves. The
1988		-
1989		-498
1990		-00:35:14,580 ~-~-> 00:35:17,400
1991		-internet is littered with so called robots or programs
1992		-
1993		-499
1994		-00:35:17,400 ~-~-> 00:35:20,130
1995		-designed to quickly give you trading profits on a knee jerk
1996		-
1997		-500
1998		-00:35:20,130 ~-~-> 00:35:25,380
1999		-reactions to the news. To me, this is pure and simple
2000		-
2001		-501
2002		-00:35:25,650 ~-~-> 00:35:30,030
2003		-gambling. We can never know for sure what the numbers will
2004		-
2005		-502
2006		-00:35:30,030 ~-~-> 00:35:32,790
2007		-be in the reports and the guests is just ridiculous.
2008		-
2009		-503
2010		-00:35:34,500 ~-~-> 00:35:38,070
2011		-However, we can wait for the release in watch the reaction
2012		-
2013		-504
2014		-00:35:38,070 ~-~-> 00:35:41,220
2015		-in many times a signal will form shortly after the release.
2016		-
2017		-505
2018		-00:35:41,670 ~-~-> 00:35:47,250
2019		-Many times counter direction to the intended news hawks use
2020		-
2021		-506
2022		-00:35:47,250 ~-~-> 00:35:52,410
2023		-news releases for injections and volatility and fuel trade
2024		-
2025		-507
2026		-00:35:52,410 ~-~-> 00:35:54,210
2027		-ideas based on price action.
2028		-
2029		-508
2030		-00:35:59,640 ~-~-> 00:36:05,550
2031		-Key Market moving indicators, key economic releases, okay,
2032		-
2033		-509
2034		-00:36:05,550 ~-~-> 00:36:10,650
2035		-we're going to be looking at the US market, the UK market
2036		-
2037		-510
2038		-00:36:10,770 ~-~-> 00:36:14,610
2039		-and the German market. Okay, we're gonna start with the UK,
2040		-
2041		-511
2042		-00:36:14,880 ~-~-> 00:36:21,000
2043		-the British pound, daily rate decision, retail sales,
2044		-
2045		-512
2046		-00:36:21,030 ~-~-> 00:36:24,570
2047		-consumer prices, claimant count, GDP and industrial
2048		-
2049		-513
2050		-00:36:24,570 ~-~-> 00:36:28,560
2051		-production. Those are reports that I have on my calendar
2052		-
2053		-514
2054		-00:36:28,590 ~-~-> 00:36:32,190
2055		-times when they're going to come out. And I will absolutely
2056		-
2057		-515
2058		-00:36:32,190 ~-~-> 00:36:36,510
2059		-be aware of these and I will be more or less looking for
2060		-
2061		-516
2062		-00:36:36,510 ~-~-> 00:36:41,190
2063		-trades to either be propelled in the direction that I've
2064		-
2065		-517
2066		-00:36:41,190 ~-~-> 00:36:45,270
2067		-been prior to the report, or I'll be looking for a signal to
2068		-
2069		-518
2070		-00:36:45,270 ~-~-> 00:36:48,480
2071		-generate shortly after one of these reports are released.
2072		-
2073		-519
2074		-00:36:56,460 ~-~-> 00:36:59,010
2075		-All right, the US dollar we're gonna get the North American
2076		-
2077		-520
2078		-00:36:59,010 ~-~-> 00:36:59,460
2079		-market
2080		-
2081		-521
2082		-00:37:01,470 ~-~-> 00:37:04,620
2083		-Federal Reserve rates, retail sales consumer and producer
2084		-
2085		-522
2086		-00:37:04,650 ~-~-> 00:37:08,010
2087		-prices, non farm payroll I avoid that I do not touch it
2088		-
2089		-523
2090		-00:37:08,550 ~-~-> 00:37:12,930
2091		-gross domestic product GDP trade balance consumer confidence
2092		-
2093		-524
2094		-00:37:12,930 ~-~-> 00:37:16,560
2095		-reports and service and manufacturing ICM you want to note
2096		-
2097		-525
2098		-00:37:16,560 ~-~-> 00:37:19,740
2099		-these as well because all of your crosses with the dollar
2100		-
2101		-526
2102		-00:37:20,130 ~-~-> 00:37:21,750
2103		-will be impacted by this as well.
2104		-
2105		-527
2106		-00:37:31,050 ~-~-> 00:37:33,540
2107		-Okay the German market we're gonna look at the euros
2108		-
2109		-528
2110		-00:37:34,860 ~-~-> 00:37:38,340
2111		-okay rate decision German IFO German unemployment German
2112		-
2113		-529
2114		-00:37:38,340 ~-~-> 00:37:41,460
2115		-consumer prices German GDP and manufacturing and services
2116		-
2117		-530
2118		-00:37:41,460 ~-~-> 00:37:45,180
2119		-sector PMI. You want to have these on your calendar when
2120		-
2121		-531
2122		-00:37:45,180 ~-~-> 00:37:47,880
2123		-time they're gonna be released and be aware of these because
2124		-
2125		-532
2126		-00:37:47,880 ~-~-> 00:37:50,430
2127		-these absolutely will move the market considerably.
2128		-
2129		-533
2130		-00:37:55,200 ~-~-> 00:37:56,910
2131		-I plan for news impact.
2132		-
2133		-534
2134		-00:37:58,830 ~-~-> 00:38:02,610
2135		-You have to have awareness of your economic calendar folks.
2136		-
2137		-535
2138		-00:38:05,100 ~-~-> 00:38:07,380
2139		-Now there are a few resources that you can use to determine
2140		-
2141		-536
2142		-00:38:07,380 ~-~-> 00:38:10,230
2143		-when high impact news will release and hit the market.
2144		-
2145		-537
2146		-00:38:11,400 ~-~-> 00:38:14,130
2147		-Number one, obviously baby pips, coms calendar,
2148		-
2149		-538
2150		-00:38:16,379 ~-~-> 00:38:18,929
2151		-forex factory comm calendar.
2152		-
2153		-539
2154		-00:38:20,670 ~-~-> 00:38:24,270
2155		-And you can actually Google econo day calendars. You can
2156		-
2157		-540
2158		-00:38:24,270 ~-~-> 00:38:29,370
2159		-find some at Bloomberg and a few other resources, but they
2160		-
2161		-541
2162		-00:38:29,370 ~-~-> 00:38:31,140
2163		-have a very good format. And I like that they're
2164		-
2165		-542
2166		-00:38:31,440 ~-~-> 00:38:32,430
2167		-very user friendly.
2168		-
2169		-543
2170		-00:38:34,470 ~-~-> 00:38:37,890
2171		-And if for more information on this topic, and if you have
2172		-
2173		-544
2174		-00:38:37,890 ~-~-> 00:38:41,100
2175		-any more interest on interest rates, I would recommend that
2176		-
2177		-545
2178		-00:38:41,100 ~-~-> 00:38:44,970
2179		-Chris Lori's inside the banks webinar. I purchased this A
2180		-
2181		-546
2182		-00:38:44,970 ~-~-> 00:38:48,570
2183		-number of years ago and I was very impressed with his
2184		-
2185		-547
2186		-00:38:49,950 ~-~-> 00:38:56,400
2187		-presentation on the banking level in terms of interest rates
2188		-
2189		-548
2190		-00:38:56,400 ~-~-> 00:39:00,630
2191		-and how they move and propel the marketplace. So if This
2192		-
2193		-549
2194		-00:39:00,630 ~-~-> 00:39:01,890
2195		-isn't if this isn't,
2196		-
2197		-550
2198		-00:39:03,180 ~-~-> 00:39:05,190
2199		-more or less get to the
2200		-
2201		-551
2202		-00:39:06,509 ~-~-> 00:39:10,199
2203		-understanding you're looking for. I would counsel you to,
2204		-
2205		-552
2206		-00:39:10,229 ~-~-> 00:39:12,989
2207		-you know, do a little investment in your career, and it's
2208		-
2209		-553
2210		-00:39:12,989 ~-~-> 00:39:15,479
2211		-not much money at all. But it absolutely is a wonderful
2212		-
2213		-554
2214		-00:39:15,479 ~-~-> 00:39:19,259
2215		-resource. It doesn't really good job in that webinar. You
2216		-
2217		-555
2218		-00:39:19,259 ~-~-> 00:39:24,059
2219		-can reach Chris Laurie at Chris laurie.com. And you can get
2220		-
2221		-556
2222		-00:39:24,059 ~-~-> 00:39:27,989
2223		-his webinar from his website. He's actually the only one
2224		-
2225		-557
2226		-00:39:27,989 ~-~-> 00:39:33,209
2227		-that I recommend any folks buy material from? I have
2228		-
2229		-558
2230		-00:39:33,569 ~-~-> 00:39:38,669
2231		-everything but his Aussie yen course and I just don't trade
2232		-
2233		-559
2234		-00:39:38,669 ~-~-> 00:39:41,009
2235		-yen crosses, otherwise, I probably would have bought that as
2236		-
2237		-560
2238		-00:39:41,009 ~-~-> 00:39:45,029
2239		-well. He does a really good job of teaching. He's very, very
2240		-
2241		-561
2242		-00:39:45,029 ~-~-> 00:39:48,209
2243		-interested in your success. And that separates him as far as
2244		-
2245		-562
2246		-00:39:48,209 ~-~-> 00:39:52,169
2247		-my concern from all the other folks out there. So you know,
2248		-
2249		-563
2250		-00:39:52,679 ~-~-> 00:39:53,399
2251		-kudos to him.
2252		-
2253		-564
2254		-00:40:33,150 ~-~-> 00:40:36,390
2255		-Alright guys, 30 year treasuries and tea notes. Okay, now
2256		-
2257		-565
2258		-00:40:36,390 ~-~-> 00:40:39,120
2259		-some of my best concepts are found in my early days as a
2260		-
2261		-566
2262		-00:40:39,120 ~-~-> 00:40:42,720
2263		-futures trader and the bond market is a big market and it
2264		-
2265		-567
2266		-00:40:42,720 ~-~-> 00:40:46,410
2267		-provides so much insight and leading information. Now, I
2268		-
2269		-568
2270		-00:40:46,410 ~-~-> 00:40:48,810
2271		-don't trade bonds anymore, but I absolutely monitor the
2272		-
2273		-569
2274		-00:40:48,810 ~-~-> 00:40:51,450
2275		-futures on a daily basis. This market can tell you
2276		-
2277		-570
2278		-00:40:51,480 ~-~-> 00:40:54,300
2279		-everything you need to know in any market asset class if you
2280		-
2281		-571
2282		-00:40:54,300 ~-~-> 00:40:57,000
2283		-understand it. The scope of the bond market is not the
2284		-
2285		-572
2286		-00:40:57,000 ~-~-> 00:41:00,150
2287		-objective here, but we will use it to discover some rap are
2288		-
2289		-573
2290		-00:41:00,150 ~-~-> 00:41:03,390
2291		-impressive techniques to ferret out some blockbuster trades.
2292		-
2293		-574
2294		-00:41:06,570 ~-~-> 00:41:10,410
2295		-10 year Treasury notes, okay, much like the 30 year treasury
2296		-
2297		-575
2298		-00:41:10,410 ~-~-> 00:41:14,130
2299		-bond, I used these early on in my career as a futures
2300		-
2301		-576
2302		-00:41:14,130 ~-~-> 00:41:20,190
2303		-trader. And there's a little caveat to understand the the
2304		-
2305		-577
2306		-00:41:20,190 ~-~-> 00:41:22,560
2307		-bond market, whenever you see the price chart on the
2308		-
2309		-578
2310		-00:41:22,560 ~-~-> 00:41:28,980
2311		-futures, when they rally up, they will have an inverse
2312		-
2313		-579
2314		-00:41:28,980 ~-~-> 00:41:31,680
2315		-relationship. In other words, as the price data goes higher,
2316		-
2317		-580
2318		-00:41:32,130 ~-~-> 00:41:35,220
2319		-the yield will actually be going down. So you have to have
2320		-
2321		-581
2322		-00:41:35,220 ~-~-> 00:41:39,030
2323		-that in your mind. Now, since I trade the cable and the
2324		-
2325		-582
2326		-00:41:39,030 ~-~-> 00:41:44,130
2327		-fiber exclusively, you know, I trade tracking the German 10
2328		-
2329		-583
2330		-00:41:44,130 ~-~-> 00:41:50,640
2331		-year bond as well. The five year Treasury note much like the
2332		-
2333		-584
2334		-00:41:50,640 ~-~-> 00:41:55,620
2335		-10 year and 30 year and when price runs up on the contract
2336		-
2337		-585
2338		-00:41:55,800 ~-~-> 00:42:00,000
2339		-price on the futures market. The yield will be basically the
2340		-
2341		-586
2342		-00:42:00,000 ~-~-> 00:42:03,300
2343		-creasing are dropping and obviously if the chart would be
2344		-
2345		-587
2346		-00:42:03,300 ~-~-> 00:42:06,060
2347		-dropping on the futures, that would mean the yield would be
2348		-
2349		-588
2350		-00:42:06,060 ~-~-> 00:42:10,830
2351		-increasing as well. And much like the 10 year I also track
2352		-
2353		-589
2354		-00:42:10,830 ~-~-> 00:42:15,450
2355		-the five year German bond as well. And two year Treasury
2356		-
2357		-590
2358		-00:42:15,450 ~-~-> 00:42:20,070
2359		-note much like the five year and 10 year I track that on a
2360		-
2361		-591
2362		-00:42:20,070 ~-~-> 00:42:25,620
2363		-German basis as well and by having an understanding of all
2364		-
2365		-592
2366		-00:42:25,620 ~-~-> 00:42:29,340
2367		-three of those we can find some pretty neat things we're
2368		-
2369		-593
2370		-00:42:29,340 ~-~-> 00:42:30,660
2371		-going to learn about here shortly
2372		-
2373		-594
2374		-00:42:32,220 ~-~-> 00:42:34,500
2375		-obviously goes without saying the US Dollar index
2376		-
2377		-595
2378		-00:42:36,900 ~-~-> 00:42:41,250
2379		-i like daily FX calm if you go to the net Dania charting now
2380		-
2381		-596
2382		-00:42:41,280 ~-~-> 00:42:45,930
2383		-do not go to net Dania calm Okay, it's very important. Go to
2384		-
2385		-597
2386		-00:42:45,930 ~-~-> 00:42:49,380
2387		-daily FX calm and use the net Dania charting it's free.
2388		-
2389		-598
2390		-00:42:49,710 ~-~-> 00:42:54,540
2391		-Okay, and you open up a US Dollar Index chart, and it'll
2392		-
2393		-599
2394		-00:42:54,540 ~-~-> 00:42:58,590
2395		-give you what I like to see in terms of the US Dollar Index
2396		-
2397		-600
2398		-00:43:01,410 ~-~-> 00:43:06,600
2399		-I look at the cash basis also. And the chart to the right
2400		-
2401		-601
2402		-00:43:06,600 ~-~-> 00:43:09,720
2403		-here. This is the futures chart of the United States Dollar
2404		-
2405		-602
2406		-00:43:09,720 ~-~-> 00:43:16,380
2407		-Index. If you like these types of charts, and you want to
2408		-
2409		-603
2410		-00:43:16,380 ~-~-> 00:43:18,780
2411		-subscribe to them, it's not very expensive or things like
2412		-
2413		-604
2414		-00:43:18,780 ~-~-> 00:43:23,520
2415		-$25 a month, but you can get that at price charts calm. You
2416		-
2417		-605
2418		-00:43:23,520 ~-~-> 00:43:26,370
2419		-don't need to pay for futures charts, but I do prefer this
2420		-
2421		-606
2422		-00:43:26,370 ~-~-> 00:43:30,480
2423		-format because I'm used to reading them since 1990s. I've
2424		-
2425		-607
2426		-00:43:30,480 ~-~-> 00:43:35,100
2427		-just grown accustomed to having them in my repertoire. Now I
2428		-
2429		-608
2430		-00:43:35,100 ~-~-> 00:43:38,100
2431		-like to use SMT concepts to spot diverging highs and lows
2432		-
2433		-609
2434		-00:43:38,100 ~-~-> 00:43:41,100
2435		-between the US dx and relative price points in the fiber and
2436		-
2437		-610
2438		-00:43:41,100 ~-~-> 00:43:46,890
2439		-cable. And you knew that as my us dx SMT and I look for the
2440		-
2441		-611
2442		-00:43:46,890 ~-~-> 00:43:54,000
2443		-bond and us dx SMT as well. Major stock market indices,
2444		-
2445		-612
2446		-00:43:54,300 ~-~-> 00:43:56,910
2447		-okay, the major stock market indices are one of my favorite
2448		-
2449		-613
2450		-00:43:56,910 ~-~-> 00:44:00,720
2451		-tools to gauge long term price swings. If we are failing and
2452		-
2453		-614
2454		-00:44:00,720 ~-~-> 00:44:03,480
2455		-highs on the daily charts as we see here in the image to the
2456		-
2457		-615
2458		-00:44:03,480 ~-~-> 00:44:07,950
2459		-right. This suggests a possible risk off scenario. Expect
2460		-
2461		-616
2462		-00:44:07,950 ~-~-> 00:44:11,640
2463		-weaker stock prices and possibly foreign currencies. The US
2464		-
2465		-617
2466		-00:44:11,640 ~-~-> 00:44:15,150
2467		-Dollar index will confirm this with a rally at support. At
2468		-
2469		-618
2470		-00:44:15,150 ~-~-> 00:44:19,140
2471		-the same juncture, simply reverse for risk on scenarios. The
2472		-
2473		-619
2474		-00:44:19,140 ~-~-> 00:44:22,290
2475		-markets as a whole are interconnected and it pays to monitor
2476		-
2477		-620
2478		-00:44:22,290 ~-~-> 00:44:29,190
2479		-them and hunt for clues. The CRB Commodity Index, okay, now
2480		-
2481		-621
2482		-00:44:29,190 ~-~-> 00:44:32,670
2483		-I usually watch this on the cash basis. And you can get that
2484		-
2485		-622
2486		-00:44:32,670 ~-~-> 00:44:35,970
2487		-from the price charts calm. I'm sure if you do a google you
2488		-
2489		-623
2490		-00:44:35,970 ~-~-> 00:44:38,280
2491		-probably find that as well. But again, I just really like
2492		-
2493		-624
2494		-00:44:38,280 ~-~-> 00:44:41,340
2495		-this, this chart, I think it's real crisp, and we print them
2496		-
2497		-625
2498		-00:44:41,340 ~-~-> 00:44:43,830
2499		-out. There's nothing like printing out charts and marking
2500		-
2501		-626
2502		-00:44:43,830 ~-~-> 00:44:47,520
2503		-them up by hand. I'm like Flintstone caveman. I like being
2504		-
2505		-627
2506		-00:44:47,520 ~-~-> 00:44:50,790
2507		-able to carve up, you know, some notes and draw my charts.
2508		-
2509		-628
2510		-00:44:50,820 ~-~-> 00:44:53,700
2511		-You know, I like sharing with you guys electronically. But
2512		-
2513		-629
2514		-00:44:53,970 ~-~-> 00:44:55,890
2515		-you know, if it's going to be a matter of preference, I
2516		-
2517		-630
2518		-00:44:55,890 ~-~-> 00:44:58,830
2519		-would love to have you printed charts every single day.
2520		-
2521		-631
2522		-00:44:58,830 ~-~-> 00:45:04,770
2523		-That's this is my My opinion really, now I like the CRB
2524		-
2525		-632
2526		-00:45:04,770 ~-~-> 00:45:07,560
2527		-index, because it usually has a inverse relationship to the
2528		-
2529		-633
2530		-00:45:07,560 ~-~-> 00:45:11,070
2531		-dollar index. And I like to confirm a swing higher in dollar
2532		-
2533		-634
2534		-00:45:11,400 ~-~-> 00:45:16,680
2535		-with shorting fiber and or cable with a CRB decline. Now the
2536		-
2537		-635
2538		-00:45:16,680 ~-~-> 00:45:19,890
2539		-CRB index tends to be a little bit early and can one of
2540		-
2541		-636
2542		-00:45:19,890 ~-~-> 00:45:23,220
2543		-possible long term shifts in the trend. It's a dynamite tool
2544		-
2545		-637
2546		-00:45:23,220 ~-~-> 00:45:25,950
2547		-to use for major market analysis and pinning down long to
2548		-
2549		-638
2550		-00:45:25,950 ~-~-> 00:45:32,310
2551		-intermediate term directional bias. All right, well in gold
2552		-
2553		-639
2554		-00:45:32,340 ~-~-> 00:45:34,290
2555		-now, I like looking at these two markets, I don't trade
2556		-
2557		-640
2558		-00:45:34,290 ~-~-> 00:45:37,590
2559		-them. But I'd like to use them as barometers more or less to
2560		-
2561		-641
2562		-00:45:37,590 ~-~-> 00:45:41,580
2563		-see if there's risk on a risk off scenario is underway. And
2564		-
2565		-642
2566		-00:45:42,120 ~-~-> 00:45:45,300
2567		-basically, you want to be looking at the same way that you
2568		-
2569		-643
2570		-00:45:45,300 ~-~-> 00:45:49,260
2571		-know, foreign currencies and CRB all those markets should be
2572		-
2573		-644
2574		-00:45:49,530 ~-~-> 00:45:51,060
2575		-moving in tandem with both.
2576		-
2577		-645
2578		-00:45:58,200 ~-~-> 00:46:02,160
2579		-Okay, we're looking at the Tina Note yields, okay, these are
2580		-
2581		-646
2582		-00:46:02,160 ~-~-> 00:46:08,070
2583		-going to be the two year, five year and 10 year. And you can
2584		-
2585		-647
2586		-00:46:08,070 ~-~-> 00:46:12,450
2587		-look at the legend up here to determine which is which as we
2588		-
2589		-648
2590		-00:46:12,450 ~-~-> 00:46:17,130
2591		-go through. And what I'm highlighting here is when there is
2592		-
2593		-649
2594		-00:46:17,130 ~-~-> 00:46:23,010
2595		-a divergence between these yields, okay, these are t note
2596		-
2597		-650
2598		-00:46:23,070 ~-~-> 00:46:27,360
2599		-yields. And this line is not the T note price, it's the
2600		-
2601		-651
2602		-00:46:27,360 ~-~-> 00:46:31,260
2603		-actual t note yield. So, the yield is actually inverse is an
2604		-
2605		-652
2606		-00:46:31,260 ~-~-> 00:46:35,250
2607		-inversion of the futures charts price of the T note, okay,
2608		-
2609		-653
2610		-00:46:35,250 ~-~-> 00:46:39,600
2611		-so I kind of monitor both, but the yield when you monitor it
2612		-
2613		-654
2614		-00:46:39,600 ~-~-> 00:46:45,690
2615		-like this, it will basically mirror what foreign currencies
2616		-
2617		-655
2618		-00:46:45,690 ~-~-> 00:46:48,600
2619		-should be doing. In other words, as the yields were
2620		-
2621		-656
2622		-00:46:48,600 ~-~-> 00:46:51,630
2623		-increasing here, that would have been bullish for foreign
2624		-
2625		-657
2626		-00:46:51,630 ~-~-> 00:46:56,490
2627		-currency and contrary as the yields drop, that would be
2628		-
2629		-658
2630		-00:46:56,520 ~-~-> 00:47:00,720
2631		-bearish for foreign currencies. Okay. You You see these
2632		-
2633		-659
2634		-00:47:00,750 ~-~-> 00:47:03,540
2635		-confirmations in your technicals on your charts. In other
2636		-
2637		-660
2638		-00:47:03,540 ~-~-> 00:47:09,090
2639		-words, if there's a buy signal for foreign currencies and in
2640		-
2641		-661
2642		-00:47:09,090 ~-~-> 00:47:13,110
2643		-your daily charts or respective timeframes that you trade,
2644		-
2645		-662
2646		-00:47:13,890 ~-~-> 00:47:18,570
2647		-and there is a sell signal being confirmed in the US dollar,
2648		-
2649		-663
2650		-00:47:19,170 ~-~-> 00:47:22,380
2651		-that is a confirmation that you probably got a, you know, a
2652		-
2653		-664
2654		-00:47:22,380 ~-~-> 00:47:26,520
2655		-good probability of a nice swing for your respective
2656		-
2657		-665
2658		-00:47:26,520 ~-~-> 00:47:29,580
2659		-timeframe. Now, what we're referring to here is a daily
2660		-
2661		-666
2662		-00:47:29,580 ~-~-> 00:47:33,420
2663		-basis, this is really going to give you a buy, program or
2664		-
2665		-667
2666		-00:47:33,420 ~-~-> 00:47:37,980
2667		-sell program. Okay, this is the beginnings of a buy program.
2668		-
2669		-668
2670		-00:47:38,370 ~-~-> 00:47:43,320
2671		-This is the termination of a buy program and a beginning of
2672		-
2673		-669
2674		-00:47:43,320 ~-~-> 00:47:47,520
2675		-a sell program. Now, the main thing I want you to focus on
2676		-
2677		-670
2678		-00:47:47,730 ~-~-> 00:47:51,960
2679		-is that there's typically a three or four month cycle, okay?
2680		-
2681		-671
2682		-00:47:51,960 ~-~-> 00:47:55,140
2683		-It's like almost like a quarterly effect that takes place in
2684		-
2685		-672
2686		-00:47:55,170 ~-~-> 00:47:58,740
2687		-the yields and it's based basically on interest rates and
2688		-
2689		-673
2690		-00:47:59,610 ~-~-> 00:48:02,160
2691		-macro Economics and things of that nature. But I'm not going
2692		-
2693		-674
2694		-00:48:02,160 ~-~-> 00:48:05,070
2695		-to bore you with that here. But just basically, if you look
2696		-
2697		-675
2698		-00:48:05,070 ~-~-> 00:48:08,670
2699		-at the charts, and on historical perspective, you'll see
2700		-
2701		-676
2702		-00:48:08,670 ~-~-> 00:48:13,260
2703		-that that is, in fact, what happens on the average. And
2704		-
2705		-677
2706		-00:48:13,260 ~-~-> 00:48:16,020
2707		-we're going to do is we're going to talk about at the time
2708		-
2709		-678
2710		-00:48:16,020 ~-~-> 00:48:21,510
2711		-of this recording, this is June 2012. And what I'm looking
2712		-
2713		-679
2714		-00:48:21,510 ~-~-> 00:48:27,840
2715		-at is trying to go over why we saw the precipitous slide in
2716		-
2717		-680
2718		-00:48:28,380 ~-~-> 00:48:32,190
2719		-the foreign currency market, namely the British pound and
2720		-
2721		-681
2722		-00:48:32,310 ~-~-> 00:48:40,020
2723		-the Euro, USD, pairs, cable and fiber. And we're gonna look
2724		-
2725		-682
2726		-00:48:40,020 ~-~-> 00:48:43,140
2727		-at how that relates to these yields here, okay. And what
2728		-
2729		-683
2730		-00:48:43,140 ~-~-> 00:48:46,170
2731		-we're looking at again, on this chart is the United States
2732		-
2733		-684
2734		-00:48:46,230 ~-~-> 00:48:49,920
2735		-10 year, United States, five year in the United States, two
2736		-
2737		-685
2738		-00:48:49,920 ~-~-> 00:48:53,850
2739		-year t notes. Okay, and again, these are the yields and
2740		-
2741		-686
2742		-00:48:53,850 ~-~-> 00:48:57,390
2743		-basically what you're looking for is at a specific time,
2744		-
2745		-687
2746		-00:48:57,390 ~-~-> 00:49:01,350
2747		-seasonally, and quarterly. There will be divergence that
2748		-
2749		-688
2750		-00:49:01,350 ~-~-> 00:49:06,300
2751		-posts in these yields. And that looks like this. We have, it
2752		-
2753		-689
2754		-00:49:06,300 ~-~-> 00:49:09,210
2755		-may be a little difficult to see I understand but the orange
2756		-
2757		-690
2758		-00:49:09,330 ~-~-> 00:49:14,670
2759		-line here which is the two year, the high made back here is
2760		-
2761		-691
2762		-00:49:14,670 ~-~-> 00:49:19,860
2763		-lower than the high made in March April time period. Okay,
2764		-
2765		-692
2766		-00:49:20,130 ~-~-> 00:49:21,840
2767		-or actually in March 19.
2768		-
2769		-693
2770		-00:49:23,610 ~-~-> 00:49:24,150
2771		-The
2772		-
2773		-694
2774		-00:49:24,899 ~-~-> 00:49:27,449
2775		-high here on the 10 year
2776		-
2777		-695
2778		-00:49:31,080 ~-~-> 00:49:32,460
2779		-was just about equal.
2780		-
2781		-696
2782		-00:49:35,250 ~-~-> 00:49:38,010
2783		-And same thing here we have
2784		-
2785		-697
2786		-00:49:38,280 ~-~-> 00:49:38,730
2787		-the
2788		-
2789		-698
2790		-00:49:39,030 ~-~-> 00:49:39,780
2791		-five year
2792		-
2793		-699
2794		-00:49:41,940 ~-~-> 00:49:42,810
2795		-just about equal.
2796		-
2797		-700
2798		-00:49:43,050 ~-~-> 00:49:46,230
2799		-Okay, so we have a divergence between the two year five year
2800		-
2801		-701
2802		-00:49:46,230 ~-~-> 00:49:52,350
2803		-and 10 year. Okay. That typically is a reason to start
2804		-
2805		-702
2806		-00:49:52,350 ~-~-> 00:49:56,190
2807		-looking for other reasons to support a decline in yields
2808		-
2809		-703
2810		-00:49:56,190 ~-~-> 00:49:59,430
2811		-which would represent a decline in foreign currency, any
2812		-
2813		-704
2814		-00:49:59,430 ~-~-> 00:50:03,600
2815		-rally The US Dollar Index. Okay, so let's take a look at a
2816		-
2817		-705
2818		-00:50:03,600 ~-~-> 00:50:06,810
2819		-few other examples and we're looking at the foreign bond
2820		-
2821		-706
2822		-00:50:06,810 ~-~-> 00:50:13,410
2823		-markets. Right now we're looking at the five year notes on
2824		-
2825		-707
2826		-00:50:13,500 ~-~-> 00:50:18,930
2827		-the UK 10 year, I'm sorry, UK five year note, the German
2828		-
2829		-708
2830		-00:50:18,930 ~-~-> 00:50:23,910
2831		-five year note and against the United States five year
2832		-
2833		-709
2834		-00:50:24,150 ~-~-> 00:50:24,750
2835		-Treasury note.
2836		-
2837		-710
2838		-00:50:26,250 ~-~-> 00:50:27,120
2839		-Okay, and
2840		-
2841		-711
2842		-00:50:29,070 ~-~-> 00:50:33,210
2843		-we're going to look at this time frame in here. Okay, going
2844		-
2845		-712
2846		-00:50:33,210 ~-~-> 00:50:35,160
2847		-back to this chart real quick, just to reference again,
2848		-
2849		-713
2850		-00:50:36,180 ~-~-> 00:50:41,640
2851		-we're looking in 2012, March, April time period. Okay, we're
2852		-
2853		-714
2854		-00:50:41,640 ~-~-> 00:50:45,990
2855		-going to go and look at this area here. And what I want to
2856		-
2857		-715
2858		-00:50:45,990 ~-~-> 00:50:48,480
2859		-draw your attention to is the fact that we had
2860		-
2861		-716
2862		-00:50:49,710 ~-~-> 00:50:50,280
2863		-the
2864		-
2865		-717
2866		-00:50:51,270 ~-~-> 00:50:52,800
2867		-US five year note
2868		-
2869		-718
2870		-00:50:53,910 ~-~-> 00:50:56,130
2871		-higher, respectively
2872		-
2873		-719
2874		-00:50:58,020 ~-~-> 00:51:05,040
2875		-while the German Five Year note was lower. And the UK five
2876		-
2877		-720
2878		-00:51:05,040 ~-~-> 00:51:09,390
2879		-year note was lower. Okay. And what I'm gonna do is I'm
2880		-
2881		-721
2882		-00:51:09,390 ~-~-> 00:51:14,280
2883		-gonna take off to UK so you can see there is a clear
2884		-
2885		-722
2886		-00:51:14,640 ~-~-> 00:51:17,520
2887		-divergence between the US and the German metal sufficiently.
2888		-
2889		-723
2890		-00:51:17,520 ~-~-> 00:51:25,980
2891		-So the divergence Okay, see the high here, too high on the
2892		-
2893		-724
2894		-00:51:25,980 ~-~-> 00:51:31,050
2895		-red line, that's the German five year note. It's bearish
2896		-
2897		-725
2898		-00:51:32,220 ~-~-> 00:51:36,810
2899		-while at the same time the US five year note was making a
2900		-
2901		-726
2902		-00:51:36,810 ~-~-> 00:51:42,690
2903		-higher high in yield. Okay and then you saw them slide
2904		-
2905		-727
2906		-00:51:42,690 ~-~-> 00:51:52,410
2907		-together that that is a yield SMT divergence. Okay, as I
2908		-
2909		-728
2910		-00:51:52,470 ~-~-> 00:51:54,900
2911		-look at it, you can see a
2912		-
2913		-729
2914		-00:51:55,350 ~-~-> 00:51:56,340
2915		-contrary
2916		-
2917		-730
2918		-00:51:57,030 ~-~-> 00:52:03,660
2919		-signal here back in October. As of 2010, where the German
2920		-
2921		-731
2922		-00:52:03,660 ~-~-> 00:52:08,100
2923		-five year note was failing to make lower lows in the yield.
2924		-
2925		-732
2926		-00:52:08,490 ~-~-> 00:52:12,720
2927		-At the same time, the US five year note was making a lower
2928		-
2929		-733
2930		-00:52:12,720 ~-~-> 00:52:17,610
2931		-low. Okay, and then we saw both yields increase together.
2932		-
2933		-734
2934		-00:52:18,060 ~-~-> 00:52:24,300
2935		-And here the high, you saw an inability for the US to trade
2936		-
2937		-735
2938		-00:52:24,690 ~-~-> 00:52:29,460
2939		-higher in yield while the German yield went higher, and you
2940		-
2941		-736
2942		-00:52:29,460 ~-~-> 00:52:33,330
2943		-can see there was a shift in the major market sentiment. And
2944		-
2945		-737
2946		-00:52:33,330 ~-~-> 00:52:35,280
2947		-that's really what this is measuring market sentiment
2948		-
2949		-738
2950		-00:52:35,430 ~-~-> 00:52:39,270
2951		-because you're, you're chasing the yield. Okay. And the
2952		-
2953		-739
2954		-00:52:39,270 ~-~-> 00:52:41,970
2955		-markets always going to seek yield. Okay, so if the yields
2956		-
2957		-740
2958		-00:52:42,390 ~-~-> 00:52:44,610
2959		-are increasing, that's going to be bullish for major
2960		-
2961		-741
2962		-00:52:44,610 ~-~-> 00:52:46,860
2963		-currencies, and it's going to be
2964		-
2965		-742
2966		-00:52:47,010 ~-~-> 00:52:49,020
2967		-bearish for the dollar
2968		-
2969		-743
2970		-00:52:50,460 ~-~-> 00:52:53,550
2971		-and vice versa. And we seen the same thing here and this
2972		-
2973		-744
2974		-00:52:53,550 ~-~-> 00:53:00,330
2975		-April 2010. Okay, the US five year made higher highs While
2976		-
2977		-745
2978		-00:53:00,360 ~-~-> 00:53:05,220
2979		-the German five year note was unable to make equivalent, new
2980		-
2981		-746
2982		-00:53:05,220 ~-~-> 00:53:08,580
2983		-hot, and there was your shift, and notice this is happening
2984		-
2985		-747
2986		-00:53:08,910 ~-~-> 00:53:13,650
2987		-march april time period. And we just recently at the time of
2988		-
2989		-748
2990		-00:53:13,650 ~-~-> 00:53:16,380
2991		-this recording also had another divergence which is a
2992		-
2993		-749
2994		-00:53:16,380 ~-~-> 00:53:20,130
2995		-continuation of this longer term downtrend in the yield. And
2996		-
2997		-750
2998		-00:53:20,130 ~-~-> 00:53:23,430
2999		-again, here is a 10 year comparison we're going to compare
3000		-
3001		-751
3002		-00:53:23,430 ~-~-> 00:53:33,240
3003		-the German which is the orange, the UK, green and the
3004		-
3005		-752
3006		-00:53:33,660 ~-~-> 00:53:38,010
3007		-lighter Orange is the US 10 year Treasury note. Do you see
3008		-
3009		-753
3010		-00:53:38,010 ~-~-> 00:53:42,210
3011		-the same thing happening here where the German was making
3012		-
3013		-754
3014		-00:53:42,210 ~-~-> 00:53:48,390
3015		-higher highs while the US and UK 10 year notes were failing
3016		-
3017		-755
3018		-00:53:48,390 ~-~-> 00:53:51,600
3019		-to make higher highs in their yield? And the same thing is
3020		-
3021		-756
3022		-00:53:51,600 ~-~-> 00:53:58,230
3023		-also that low was formed in the fall of 2010. We saw the
3024		-
3025		-757
3026		-00:53:58,230 ~-~-> 00:54:02,940
3027		-German 10 year failed to make lower lows in yield while the
3028		-
3029		-758
3030		-00:54:03,150 ~-~-> 00:54:07,830
3031		-US Treasury made on its 10 year basis made a lower yield and
3032		-
3033		-759
3034		-00:54:07,830 ~-~-> 00:54:13,200
3035		-the UK failed to make a lower yield also in that was your
3036		-
3037		-760
3038		-00:54:13,350 ~-~-> 00:54:16,440
3039		-sentiment shift to bullish and that would have been looking
3040		-
3041		-761
3042		-00:54:16,440 ~-~-> 00:54:20,850
3043		-for buy programs on major currencies and sell signals okay
3044		-
3045		-762
3046		-00:54:21,750 ~-~-> 00:54:24,150
3047		-in the dollar, okay. In other words, the dollar would have
3048		-
3049		-763
3050		-00:54:24,150 ~-~-> 00:54:27,780
3051		-been declining all during this period here. And at this
3052		-
3053		-764
3054		-00:54:27,930 ~-~-> 00:54:30,780
3055		-point where we saw a major shift, okay and the yield
3056		-
3057		-765
3058		-00:54:30,780 ~-~-> 00:54:35,370
3059		-diverged, the sentiment now was going to send the dollar
3060		-
3061		-766
3062		-00:54:35,730 ~-~-> 00:54:40,350
3063		-bullish and then major currencies on the farm would be
3064		-
3065		-767
3066		-00:54:40,440 ~-~-> 00:54:44,760
3067		-declining. So that would be a risk off scenario here or sell
3068		-
3069		-768
3070		-00:54:44,760 ~-~-> 00:54:50,160
3071		-program from forex. And this is a bi program, okay,
3072		-
3073		-769
3074		-00:54:50,189 ~-~-> 00:54:52,379
3075		-where the, the
3076		-
3077		-770
3078		-00:54:54,000 ~-~-> 00:54:57,420
3079		-current foreign currency markets would be rallying and the
3080		-
3081		-771
3082		-00:54:57,420 ~-~-> 00:55:01,620
3083		-US dollar at this time period would be declining. Okay, so
3084		-
3085		-772
3086		-00:55:01,920 ~-~-> 00:55:03,930
3087		-it just basically think in terms of make it real easy for
3088		-
3089		-773
3090		-00:55:03,930 ~-~-> 00:55:07,620
3091		-yourself, when the yields are going up. The foreign currency
3092		-
3093		-774
3094		-00:55:07,620 ~-~-> 00:55:10,620
3095		-markets should be trailing in sympathy, okay? Because
3096		-
3097		-775
3098		-00:55:10,620 ~-~-> 00:55:13,140
3099		-they're going to chase yield. And as the yields drop,
3100		-
3101		-776
3102		-00:55:13,260 ~-~-> 00:55:16,080
3103		-foreign currencies are going to chase that down as well,
3104		-
3105		-777
3106		-00:55:16,080 ~-~-> 00:55:18,000
3107		-there won't be any demand for that foreign currency and
3108		-
3109		-778
3110		-00:55:18,000 ~-~-> 00:55:21,780
3111		-they'll be a flight to safety in the form of going back to
3112		-
3113		-779
3114		-00:55:21,780 ~-~-> 00:55:28,410
3115		-the dollar and buying bonds. Okay. So, again, there's an
3116		-
3117		-780
3118		-00:55:28,410 ~-~-> 00:55:31,080
3119		-inverse relationship between the bond market itself and the
3120		-
3121		-781
3122		-00:55:31,080 ~-~-> 00:55:34,890
3123		-yield as bonds would go up, the yields would drop and vice
3124		-
3125		-782
3126		-00:55:34,890 ~-~-> 00:55:39,300
3127		-versa. Okay. So it that's basically the panoramic view of a
3128		-
3129		-783
3130		-00:55:39,300 ~-~-> 00:55:43,530
3131		-risk on risk off scenario and determining, buy and sell
3132		-
3133		-784
3134		-00:55:43,530 ~-~-> 00:55:49,140
3135		-programs on the daily basis. And this is one really strong
3136		-
3137		-785
3138		-00:55:49,140 ~-~-> 00:55:53,250
3139		-powerful way of keeping yourself in sync with the macro
3140		-
3141		-786
3142		-00:55:53,370 ~-~-> 00:55:55,890
3143		-economic view. And you don't have to go through all this
3144		-
3145		-787
3146		-00:55:56,520 ~-~-> 00:55:59,430
3147		-economic data. This is this is visual for you. You can see
3148		-
3149		-788
3150		-00:55:59,430 ~-~-> 00:56:02,730
3151		-it happening. every three to four months, just look for a
3152		-
3153		-789
3154		-00:56:02,730 ~-~-> 00:56:06,450
3155		-shift to occur. And when you start seeing these things occur
3156		-
3157		-790
3158		-00:56:06,450 ~-~-> 00:56:09,630
3159		-on your on the yield, okay? That's when you want to be
3160		-
3161		-791
3162		-00:56:09,630 ~-~-> 00:56:11,820
3163		-looking at your, your price charts and looking for maybe
3164		-
3165		-792
3166		-00:56:11,820 ~-~-> 00:56:16,470
3167		-some top formations and some reversal scenarios. Okay? And
3168		-
3169		-793
3170		-00:56:16,710 ~-~-> 00:56:19,380
3171		-same thing in here. So we're using seasonal tendencies,
3172		-
3173		-794
3174		-00:56:19,530 ~-~-> 00:56:26,640
3175		-cyclical analysis and the yield analysis where the market
3176		-
3177		-795
3178		-00:56:26,640 ~-~-> 00:56:29,430
3179		-will always seek yield and if yields are dropping, that's
3180		-
3181		-796
3182		-00:56:29,430 ~-~-> 00:56:32,190
3183		-going to be bearish for major currencies and bullish for the
3184		-
3185		-797
3186		-00:56:32,190 ~-~-> 00:56:32,850
3187		-US dollar.
3188		-
3189		-798
3190		-00:57:16,920 ~-~-> 00:57:20,040
3191		-Key support and resistance, you got to know your key levels
3192		-
3193		-799
3194		-00:57:20,040 ~-~-> 00:57:23,010
3195		-guys. If you don't have a firm grasp on support resistance,
3196		-
3197		-800
3198		-00:57:23,370 ~-~-> 00:57:26,070
3199		-all this is going to be a waste of time because none of your
3200		-
3201		-801
3202		-00:57:26,070 ~-~-> 00:57:29,190
3203		-signals are ever going to confirm entry or exit unless they
3204		-
3205		-802
3206		-00:57:29,190 ~-~-> 00:57:32,880
3207		-get to on these key levels. The cornerstone to your success
3208		-
3209		-803
3210		-00:57:32,880 ~-~-> 00:57:35,580
3211		-in trading will be your patience in determining high
3212		-
3213		-804
3214		-00:57:35,580 ~-~-> 00:57:38,670
3215		-timeframe key support resistance levels, and waiting for the
3216		-
3217		-805
3218		-00:57:38,670 ~-~-> 00:57:42,120
3219		-setups to form at those same levels. Once you have
3220		-
3221		-806
3222		-00:57:42,120 ~-~-> 00:57:45,390
3223		-directional bias based on the major market analysis, you
3224		-
3225		-807
3226		-00:57:45,390 ~-~-> 00:57:48,630
3227		-identify key price levels from the 60 minute chart up to the
3228		-
3229		-808
3230		-00:57:48,630 ~-~-> 00:57:52,140
3231		-monthly nothing less than a 60 minute chart and ideally, the
3232		-
3233		-809
3234		-00:57:52,140 ~-~-> 00:57:56,730
3235		-daily basis is optimal. Determined monthly, weekly previous
3236		-
3237		-810
3238		-00:57:56,730 ~-~-> 00:58:00,000
3239		-day's session highs and lows as well as pivot levels and age
3240		-
3241		-811
3242		-00:58:00,000 ~-~-> 00:58:08,460
3243		-Marines highs and lows, market sentiment, you have to avoid
3244		-
3245		-812
3246		-00:58:08,580 ~-~-> 00:58:12,660
3247		-them a herd mentality. if everybody's doing it, it's
3248		-
3249		-813
3250		-00:58:12,660 ~-~-> 00:58:15,570
3251		-probably not a good thing in the futures market or Forex.
3252		-
3253		-814
3254		-00:58:15,930 ~-~-> 00:58:18,720
3255		-It's usually probably petered out. And so you want to be
3256		-
3257		-815
3258		-00:58:18,720 ~-~-> 00:58:23,250
3259		-looking to trade against the majority. Now when decided to
3260		-
3261		-816
3262		-00:58:23,250 ~-~-> 00:58:25,590
3263		-take action in the market, it is important to remain on the
3264		-
3265		-817
3266		-00:58:25,590 ~-~-> 00:58:30,870
3267		-side of the market that is the minority. Looking for trades
3268		-
3269		-818
3270		-00:58:30,870 ~-~-> 00:58:34,410
3271		-when the market is by all parents bullish when you want to
3272		-
3273		-819
3274		-00:58:34,410 ~-~-> 00:58:37,890
3275		-short is ideal. And you might have already guessed it, when
3276		-
3277		-820
3278		-00:58:37,890 ~-~-> 00:58:42,960
3279		-it looks bearish, do your buying. This might sound rather
3280		-
3281		-821
3282		-00:58:42,960 ~-~-> 00:58:45,900
3283		-obvious and elementary but consider how little actually
3284		-
3285		-822
3286		-00:58:46,260 ~-~-> 00:58:51,720
3287		-followed this mindset. Consider the intraday Judas swing for
3288		-
3289		-823
3290		-00:58:51,720 ~-~-> 00:58:55,020
3291		-example. This is a sentiment play by all standards, and it's
3292		-
3293		-824
3294		-00:58:55,020 ~-~-> 00:58:58,500
3295		-used to quantify an entry in the opposite direction.
3296		-
3297		-825
3298		-00:59:04,319 ~-~-> 00:59:10,379
3299		-market structure, hunt intermediate term price swings. If
3300		-
3301		-826
3302		-00:59:10,379 ~-~-> 00:59:13,829
3303		-you find all of your trading occurring at long term
3304		-
3305		-827
3306		-00:59:13,829 ~-~-> 00:59:16,439
3307		-intermediate term price swings, you're going to find that
3308		-
3309		-828
3310		-00:59:16,439 ~-~-> 00:59:21,869
3311		-your trading is absolutely mind blowing. The ideal setups
3312		-
3313		-829
3314		-00:59:21,869 ~-~-> 00:59:24,809
3315		-for trading low risk high probability swings is to limit
3316		-
3317		-830
3318		-00:59:24,809 ~-~-> 00:59:27,449
3319		-your consideration to only trade the intermediate term highs
3320		-
3321		-831
3322		-00:59:27,479 ~-~-> 00:59:31,979
3323		-for shorts and intermediate term lows for Long's. Taking
3324		-
3325		-832
3326		-00:59:31,979 ~-~-> 00:59:35,129
3327		-short term scalps and or day trades in the same direction is
3328		-
3329		-833
3330		-00:59:35,129 ~-~-> 00:59:39,419
3331		-advised. Your trading plan is not to capture every move in
3332		-
3333		-834
3334		-00:59:39,419 ~-~-> 00:59:45,179
3335		-the market, just the easy low hanging fruit. Using daily
3336		-
3337		-835
3338		-00:59:45,179 ~-~-> 00:59:48,119
3339		-four hour and hourly market structure and nesting fractals
3340		-
3341		-836
3342		-00:59:48,239 ~-~-> 00:59:51,719
3343		-can be a wildly profitable price action approach. This is my
3344		-
3345		-837
3346		-00:59:51,719 ~-~-> 00:59:53,189
3347		-core price action concepts
3348		-
3349		-838
3350		-00:59:57,510 ~-~-> 00:59:59,190
3351		-open interest and premiums
3352		-
3353		-839
3354		-01:00:00,630 ~-~-> 01:00:03,960
3355		-open interest reflects Smart Money activity. And open
3356		-
3357		-840
3358		-01:00:03,960 ~-~-> 01:00:06,450
3359		-interest is basically only going to be found in the futures
3360		-
3361		-841
3362		-01:00:06,450 ~-~-> 01:00:09,930
3363		-market. And the open interest in for instance, is example
3364		-
3365		-842
3366		-01:00:09,930 ~-~-> 01:00:12,090
3367		-here. Okay, in this example, we're looking at the Swiss
3368		-
3369		-843
3370		-01:00:12,090 ~-~-> 01:00:16,650
3371		-franc. And what I've noted here is that price had ran up,
3372		-
3373		-844
3374		-01:00:16,650 ~-~-> 01:00:20,160
3375		-it's been an uptrend and we moved into a trading range.
3376		-
3377		-845
3378		-01:00:20,490 ~-~-> 01:00:26,970
3379		-Okay? And if you look at the circle here, that is open
3380		-
3381		-846
3382		-01:00:26,970 ~-~-> 01:00:30,840
3383		-interest, that cumulative line that goes along, and all of a
3384		-
3385		-847
3386		-01:00:30,840 ~-~-> 01:00:34,200
3387		-sudden drops off precipitously drops straight down. Okay,
3388		-
3389		-848
3390		-01:00:34,680 ~-~-> 01:00:37,320
3391		-that is open interest declining while the market is in a
3392		-
3393		-849
3394		-01:00:37,320 ~-~-> 01:00:43,500
3395		-range. What do you think that translates to? Well, this is a
3396		-
3397		-850
3398		-01:00:43,500 ~-~-> 01:00:46,020
3399		-concept that I adopted from Larry Williams and it still
3400		-
3401		-851
3402		-01:00:46,020 ~-~-> 01:00:49,350
3403		-served me well today. The open interest while in a market
3404		-
3405		-852
3406		-01:00:49,410 ~-~-> 01:00:52,620
3407		-market consolidation or range can tip the hand of the smart
3408		-
3409		-853
3410		-01:00:52,620 ~-~-> 01:00:57,090
3411		-money if you understand what to look for. If the open
3412		-
3413		-854
3414		-01:00:57,090 ~-~-> 01:01:00,000
3415		-interest drops off, 20% or more rapidly, this is a trick
3416		-
3417		-855
3418		-01:01:00,000 ~-~-> 01:01:03,180
3419		-tributed to commercial short covering, if open interest
3420		-
3421		-856
3422		-01:01:03,180 ~-~-> 01:01:06,810
3423		-increases 20% or more rapidly in a consolidation, this is
3424		-
3425		-857
3426		-01:01:06,810 ~-~-> 01:01:10,230
3427		-commercial short selling. Commercial traders are the largest
3428		-
3429		-858
3430		-01:01:10,290 ~-~-> 01:01:12,960
3431		-hedgers in the marketplace. And when you hedge, you're
3432		-
3433		-859
3434		-01:01:12,960 ~-~-> 01:01:15,510
3435		-essentially shorting the market, you're selling something
3436		-
3437		-860
3438		-01:01:15,510 ~-~-> 01:01:19,920
3439		-you already have. So, if open interest declines, that means
3440		-
3441		-861
3442		-01:01:19,920 ~-~-> 01:01:22,830
3443		-that they're lightening up aggressively on their shorts. Why
3444		-
3445		-862
3446		-01:01:22,830 ~-~-> 01:01:25,920
3447		-would they do that? Because they anticipate price going
3448		-
3449		-863
3450		-01:01:25,920 ~-~-> 01:01:30,420
3451		-higher. When you have a premium in the futures contracts,
3452		-
3453		-864
3454		-01:01:30,630 ~-~-> 01:01:34,140
3455		-that means the nearby contract is selling at a higher price
3456		-
3457		-865
3458		-01:01:34,230 ~-~-> 01:01:38,940
3459		-than the next month out in the future. That is a premium.
3460		-
3461		-866
3462		-01:01:39,030 ~-~-> 01:01:42,210
3463		-Okay, that means there's a high demand for that particular
3464		-
3465		-867
3466		-01:01:42,210 ~-~-> 01:01:46,920
3467		-commodity or currency. If you see open interest dropping off
3468		-
3469		-868
3470		-01:01:46,920 ~-~-> 01:01:49,860
3471		-in that scenario, this is a near perfect trade scenario you
3472		-
3473		-869
3474		-01:01:49,860 ~-~-> 01:01:56,190
3475		-need to be buying. And as a result, this was a mega trade.
3476		-
3477		-870
3478		-01:01:56,250 ~-~-> 01:01:59,160
3479		-This is in 2010. If you look at your charts around the
3480		-
3481		-871
3482		-01:01:59,160 ~-~-> 01:02:03,330
3483		-Fourth of July in two 2010 you can see how in the FX market,
3484		-
3485		-872
3486		-01:02:03,570 ~-~-> 01:02:09,900
3487		-the pair for the swissy fell out of bed like a rock. This
3488		-
3489		-873
3490		-01:02:09,900 ~-~-> 01:02:13,200
3491		-trade in the futures market actually moved 2300 points, and
3492		-
3493		-874
3494		-01:02:13,200 ~-~-> 01:02:16,950
3495		-it did less than half of two months. And the open interest
3496		-
3497		-875
3498		-01:02:16,950 ~-~-> 01:02:21,510
3499		-dropped while in the range its support at 118. And it was in
3500		-
3501		-876
3502		-01:02:21,510 ~-~-> 01:02:25,200
3503		-an existing trend already. And that's an absolutely mind
3504		-
3505		-877
3506		-01:02:25,200 ~-~-> 01:02:29,340
3507		-boggling profit. And if you have that type of scenario
3508		-
3509		-878
3510		-01:02:29,340 ~-~-> 01:02:31,200
3511		-unfold in the marketplace and you see a couple of these
3512		-
3513		-879
3514		-01:02:31,200 ~-~-> 01:02:34,860
3515		-happen a year, you can really absolutely kill it catch some
3516		-
3517		-880
3518		-01:02:34,860 ~-~-> 01:02:37,830
3519		-explosive price moves. So I would counsel you to look at
3520		-
3521		-881
3522		-01:02:37,830 ~-~-> 01:02:40,080
3523		-open interest in the futures markets on the pair's you
3524		-
3525		-882
3526		-01:02:40,080 ~-~-> 01:02:44,190
3527		-trade. Swiss franc as an example here, but it's not limited
3528		-
3529		-883
3530		-01:02:44,190 ~-~-> 01:02:47,100
3531		-to that it's you can use it in the dollar index. You can use
3532		-
3533		-884
3534		-01:02:47,100 ~-~-> 01:02:50,970
3535		-it the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, British pound,
3536		-
3537		-885
3538		-01:02:51,210 ~-~-> 01:02:59,310
3539		-Japanese yen, and even the Euro higher timeframe directional
3540		-
3541		-886
3542		-01:02:59,310 ~-~-> 01:03:02,730
3543		-bias Maintaining a focus on the weekly daily and possibly
3544		-
3545		-887
3546		-01:03:02,730 ~-~-> 01:03:04,890
3547		-the four hour time frames will keep your trading in the
3548		-
3549		-888
3550		-01:03:04,890 ~-~-> 01:03:08,190
3551		-highest probable direction. Look for support or resistance
3552		-
3553		-889
3554		-01:03:08,190 ~-~-> 01:03:11,670
3555		-on these levels determine where price is trying to reach to.
3556		-
3557		-890
3558		-01:03:12,180 ~-~-> 01:03:15,090
3559		-If price is trading lower on the daily look for an old low
3560		-
3561		-891
3562		-01:03:15,120 ~-~-> 01:03:18,120
3563		-or high in the left side of your chart to determine if
3564		-
3565		-892
3566		-01:03:18,150 ~-~-> 01:03:21,900
3567		-there's time and price available for trade. Given that
3568		-
3569		-893
3570		-01:03:21,900 ~-~-> 01:03:27,000
3571		-direction. Reverse for looking for buy setups. The main
3572		-
3573		-894
3574		-01:03:27,000 ~-~-> 01:03:30,510
3575		-point is to keep the higher timeframe in your trading. It
3576		-
3577		-895
3578		-01:03:30,510 ~-~-> 01:03:31,770
3579		-really does pay off
3580		-
3581		-896
3582		-01:04:13,110 ~-~-> 01:04:17,310
3583		-general market risk on or risk off, you want to start with
3584		-
3585		-897
3586		-01:04:17,310 ~-~-> 01:04:20,370
3587		-the interest rates? Are we seeing yields dropping or
3588		-
3589		-898
3590		-01:04:20,370 ~-~-> 01:04:23,490
3591		-increasing? Is there weakness or strength in the stocks
3592		-
3593		-899
3594		-01:04:23,520 ~-~-> 01:04:27,150
3595		-commodity and treasuries? is gold and or oil giving you any
3596		-
3597		-900
3598		-01:04:27,150 ~-~-> 01:04:30,720
3599		-clues? Is the dollar index confirming recent highs or lows
3600		-
3601		-901
3602		-01:04:30,720 ~-~-> 01:04:34,590
3603		-compared to the interest rates? Are there any market reports
3604		-
3605		-902
3606		-01:04:34,590 ~-~-> 01:04:38,610
3607		-do that might change the current market tone. The more the
3608		-
3609		-903
3610		-01:04:38,610 ~-~-> 01:04:41,910
3611		-other asset classes confirm or negate your trade idea, the
3612		-
3613		-904
3614		-01:04:41,910 ~-~-> 01:04:46,950
3615		-better risk off dollar rallies risk on it slides. It's that
3616		-
3617		-905
3618		-01:04:46,950 ~-~-> 01:04:55,530
3619		-simple. anticipatory stage of analysis. This is the stage of
3620		-
3621		-906
3622		-01:04:55,530 ~-~-> 01:04:58,350
3623		-analysis where you will spend the majority of your time it
3624		-
3625		-907
3626		-01:04:58,350 ~-~-> 01:05:01,890
3627		-is on the weekly daily time. Since the trades are based on
3628		-
3629		-908
3630		-01:05:01,890 ~-~-> 01:05:04,320
3631		-these higher timeframes, there might be a few days or so
3632		-
3633		-909
3634		-01:05:04,320 ~-~-> 01:05:07,200
3635		-before a trade actually sets up. Don't worry, that's a good
3636		-
3637		-910
3638		-01:05:07,200 ~-~-> 01:05:10,590
3639		-thing. You want to track the interest rates, you want to be
3640		-
3641		-911
3642		-01:05:10,710 ~-~-> 01:05:14,280
3643		-paying attention to cod Commitment of Traders reports, major
3644		-
3645		-912
3646		-01:05:14,280 ~-~-> 01:05:17,400
3647		-market indices, seasonal tendencies, key support resistance
3648		-
3649		-913
3650		-01:05:17,400 ~-~-> 01:05:20,550
3651		-levels and inter market analysis with correlated assets.
3652		-
3653		-914
3654		-01:05:21,210 ~-~-> 01:05:24,240
3655		-This stage of analysis is the foundation to your successful
3656		-
3657		-915
3658		-01:05:24,240 ~-~-> 01:05:31,440
3659		-trading career. execution stage of analysis This is stage of
3660		-
3661		-916
3662		-01:05:31,440 ~-~-> 01:05:34,800
3663		-analysis where you hunt setups based on the insights and
3664		-
3665		-917
3666		-01:05:34,800 ~-~-> 01:05:37,500
3667		-conclusions you arrived at in the anticipatory stage of
3668		-
3669		-918
3670		-01:05:37,500 ~-~-> 01:05:41,190
3671		-analysis. If risk is on, look for setups to buy currencies
3672		-
3673		-919
3674		-01:05:41,190 ~-~-> 01:05:44,220
3675		-and confirm the setups with higher moving or poised to rally
3676		-
3677		-920
3678		-01:05:44,220 ~-~-> 01:05:49,620
3679		-stock indices, CRB oil golden SMT concepts. If risk is off,
3680		-
3681		-921
3682		-01:05:49,800 ~-~-> 01:05:52,620
3683		-look for setups to sell currencies and confirm these setups
3684		-
3685		-922
3686		-01:05:52,620 ~-~-> 01:05:56,130
3687		-with lower moving or poised to decline, stock indices, the
3688		-
3689		-923
3690		-01:05:56,130 ~-~-> 01:06:03,750
3691		-CRB index oil, gold and SMT concepts Management stage of
3692		-
3693		-924
3694		-01:06:03,750 ~-~-> 01:06:07,290
3695		-analysis This is the stage that requires your concepts for
3696		-
3697		-925
3698		-01:06:07,290 ~-~-> 01:06:10,710
3699		-trade management on open positions, the management of stop
3700		-
3701		-926
3702		-01:06:10,710 ~-~-> 01:06:13,680
3703		-loss orders, limit orders, initial profit objectives and
3704		-
3705		-927
3706		-01:06:13,680 ~-~-> 01:06:17,730
3707		-scaling later portions. Your trading plan must have clear
3708		-
3709		-928
3710		-01:06:17,730 ~-~-> 01:06:20,400
3711		-concepts and techniques for the process that you will adhere
3712		-
3713		-929
3714		-01:06:20,400 ~-~-> 01:06:24,060
3715		-to. When managing open positions. This stage of analysis is
3716		-
3717		-930
3718		-01:06:24,060 ~-~-> 01:06:27,540
3719		-crucial for consistently and having longevity in this
3720		-
3721		-931
3722		-01:06:27,540 ~-~-> 01:06:32,430
3723		-career. You can find wonderful setups, enter at optimal
3724		-
3725		-932
3726		-01:06:32,430 ~-~-> 01:06:35,370
3727		-entry points and still miss manage the trade and in this
3728		-
3729		-933
3730		-01:06:35,370 ~-~-> 01:06:39,360
3731		-stage, you will find results bring with it loss and regret
3732		-
3733		-934
3734		-01:06:39,360 ~-~-> 01:06:48,300
3735		-if you do not manage your analysis correctly. reactionary
3736		-
3737		-935
3738		-01:06:48,300 ~-~-> 01:06:52,020
3739		-stage of analysis. This stage of analysis is seen where your
3740		-
3741		-936
3742		-01:06:52,020 ~-~-> 01:06:55,740
3743		-trades are open and you suspect or clearly see reasons to
3744		-
3745		-937
3746		-01:06:55,740 ~-~-> 01:06:58,860
3747		-collapse the trade and cut your losses or take what profits
3748		-
3749		-938
3750		-01:06:58,860 ~-~-> 01:07:01,860
3751		-you have open. There must be clear parameters in your
3752		-
3753		-939
3754		-01:07:01,860 ~-~-> 01:07:05,310
3755		-trading plan that will invoke an immediate trade termination
3756		-
3757		-940
3758		-01:07:05,310 ~-~-> 01:07:08,460
3759		-and abort when your original trade idea. This might be a
3760		-
3761		-941
3762		-01:07:08,460 ~-~-> 01:07:12,900
3763		-result of a report or news event, global catastrophe and or
3764		-
3765		-942
3766		-01:07:13,020 ~-~-> 01:07:15,870
3767		-you realize you're simply human and essentially wrong.
3768		-
3769		-943
3770		-01:07:16,320 ~-~-> 01:07:17,880
3771		-Imagine that making a mistake.
3772		-
3773		-944
3774		-01:07:23,250 ~-~-> 01:07:26,760
3775		-The documentation stage of analysis. This stage of analysis
3776		-
3777		-945
3778		-01:07:26,760 ~-~-> 01:07:29,550
3779		-is where you record in your journal, what your trade idea
3780		-
3781		-946
3782		-01:07:29,550 ~-~-> 01:07:34,200
3783		-was based on what tools you used in why screenshots and how
3784		-
3785		-947
3786		-01:07:34,200 ~-~-> 01:07:37,380
3787		-you felt going into the trade while the position was open,
3788		-
3789		-948
3790		-01:07:37,410 ~-~-> 01:07:40,470
3791		-and what made you nervous. The results of the trade should
3792		-
3793		-949
3794		-01:07:40,470 ~-~-> 01:07:43,890
3795		-be documented and reflection on the trade plan and was it
3796		-
3797		-950
3798		-01:07:43,890 ~-~-> 01:07:47,430
3799		-here too from the beginning to end? document any lessons
3800		-
3801		-951
3802		-01:07:47,430 ~-~-> 01:07:49,410
3803		-learned from the trade and what you would have liked to have
3804		-
3805		-952
3806		-01:07:49,410 ~-~-> 01:07:53,100
3807		-done differently? determine what leverage and or lot size
3808		-
3809		-953
3810		-01:07:53,100 ~-~-> 01:07:56,340
3811		-your next trade will be using? Keep these records and refer
3812		-
3813		-954
3814		-01:07:56,340 ~-~-> 01:07:59,160
3815		-to them when you experience a period of drawdown and or a
3816		-
3817		-955
3818		-01:07:59,160 ~-~-> 01:08:02,160
3819		-string of losses. It will remind you that temporary losing
3820		-
3821		-956
3822		-01:08:02,160 ~-~-> 01:08:03,300
3823		-streaks come and go.