ICT - Sniper Course - 06 - First Aid module - Swing Projection.srt

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-10 10:35
1 00:00:55,980 --> 00:01:07,770 ICT: Okay guys, welcome to the sixth installment of the ICT sniper series and we're going to be looking at a few things in this topic, this is probably going
2 00:01:07,770 --> 00:01:18,360 to be one of the most brief out of the series, but I promise you, we're gonna have a gangbusters the last two episodes in the series. This one's kind of
3 00:01:18,660 --> 00:01:29,430 important because it really focuses on the risk aspect of trading and the element of reducing risk and controlling risk. While we essentially can't remove
4 00:01:29,430 --> 00:01:45,240 entirely every aspect of the risk, we can do our best to try to control it as best we can and or mitigate the effects of risk over a period of time. In this
5 00:01:45,390 --> 00:01:57,720 episode, we're going to obviously look at every view of the previous episodes assignment, projecting swing targets and we'll be looking at some examples and
6 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:14,010 projections in illustrated form, then we're going to give you an a Euro USD bullish example a Euro USD bearish example controlling risk and effective stop
7 00:02:14,010 --> 00:02:28,140 loss placement. Okay, we're gonna be looking at the concept of limiting your trading to a defined risk percent of equity. What is the industry standard? What
8 00:02:28,140 --> 00:02:44,550 is ideal for most speculators and when you're hot, how high is high and we'll be looking at stoploss concepts and how many pips per risk per trade. I get this a
9 00:02:44,550 --> 00:03:01,290 lot in email and how to remove risk in open positions. Trailing your stop loss.  And watching your six gave me looking at risk reduction versus bailout. And
10 00:03:01,290 --> 00:03:06,870 we'll have another homework assignment. We're going to be studying the average number of pips intraday.
11 00:03:13,830 --> 00:03:26,010 Okay, folks, real quick just give you a quick example for a bullish upside objective swing projection, this high here, down that is why you see how we have
12 00:03:26,370 --> 00:03:38,250 this price swing here. Now it's comprised of smaller price swings, this is a daily chart. But the overall swing is from this high down to this low and 200
13 00:03:38,250 --> 00:03:48,360 extension, which we didn't give the actual level on our fib in this series, but we did talk about the 200 being pretty much the maximum level that we like to
14 00:03:48,360 --> 00:04:00,810 see, which is a basically a measured move type of price phenomenon from this high to this low. That same range is the same thing from the high up to this fib
15 00:04:00,810 --> 00:04:20,610 level, you can see it pretty much nailed behind. If we break this down, we can go down into a four hour chart. Okay, and what we're going to look at here is
16 00:04:20,610 --> 00:04:36,090 that market moving lower here, we have this swing up, okay, so this is going to be a fulcrum point right here. Okay, and I'm going to give you fib projection
17 00:04:38,940 --> 00:04:50,610 right here and the 200 levels down here and now we did work through it a couple times. Getting a small little reaction here now but this is the overall price
18 00:04:50,610 --> 00:05:03,210 swing and it broke down here is the 127 easily reached once easy to easily reach and then went down below these market Structure lows are here. Okay, so you can
19 00:05:03,210 --> 00:05:15,330 see the complete fruition of the market maker sell model. Here we have the consolidation, the break out of it, the first little pause in here and rally up
20 00:05:16,140 --> 00:05:26,670 to failure swing, and then subsequent optimal trade entries, which we call this in advance right here on Twitter, and slammed it down. Guy, we were calling in
21 00:05:26,670 --> 00:05:42,120 advance this level here, and this level in here as well, you can find that on Twitter, again, it's all the time and date stamped. Now, you could take this
22 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:56,370 even further and go down to a 15 minute time frame. Okay, and just simply looking at the fifth of them ever, you can see that we have this swing here,
23 00:05:57,240 --> 00:06:11,250 when it breaks this low here, okay, it's gonna be a fulcrum point right there.  So anything moving down in price will most likely be a fib level for downside
24 00:06:11,250 --> 00:06:11,880 objectives.
25 00:06:19,050 --> 00:06:37,050 Okay, here's the 127 extension, from this low to high is 127 and 162. And then 200 extension here. And as a result prices up here. Okay. You can see, take
26 00:06:37,050 --> 00:06:50,730 these Li fibs off, starting to blend. While price is moving lower, you can see this rally up wants to take the low that we're anchoring the fed from out. Okay,
27 00:06:50,850 --> 00:07:00,660 this being the fulcrum point, you have your 127, your 162 and just fell short of the 200 extension here. And again, that's the reason why I don't really marry
28 00:07:01,140 --> 00:07:12,030 the idea that the 200 is always going to get hit, I really liked the 162. I like going 127 obviously, but we'll break it down further in the next video as to the
29 00:07:12,030 --> 00:07:25,110 other targets and other means of looking for additional targets and multiple targeting. And that'll be in Part Seven. And I know we've been dealing or at
30 00:07:25,110 --> 00:07:36,240 least attempting to move exclusively with the Euro USD pair for this teaching series. But just for the sake of argument, let's take a look at two other pairs
31 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:58,350 we'll look at the Canadian dollar Okay, here's the Canadian dollar and let's go down to a hourly chart. Okay, and let's zoom out a little bit. right we have the
32 00:07:58,350 --> 00:08:09,780 market trading lower into a level of support, which I'm not going to outline here, but if you got to our timeframes, you can find the waterblock where this
33 00:08:09,780 --> 00:08:23,790 reacted to. But if you use this high here, market structure shifts right there.  So this becomes a fulcrum point right there. trades out canes button comes right
34 00:08:23,790 --> 00:08:35,250 back down find support that same level of you pull from that point down to the lowest low. Okay, you have your 127 easily reached 162 easily reached and then
35 00:08:35,250 --> 00:08:44,430 200 very easily reached, okay. If you take your fib level,
36 00:08:49,680 --> 00:08:59,610 here's the 50% level or fulcrum or equilibrium. Okay, and you see the 100 level here, which is basically what you're getting with a 200% fail level. Okay, but
37 00:08:59,610 --> 00:09:09,810 I'm trying to teach you everything is based on like a 50% basis. Okay, there's like a 50% rule. If it moves down this many pips once it breaks that high issue,
38 00:09:09,810 --> 00:09:20,010 at least try to move that same number of pips up, okay. And when it does that, we have what is referred to as market symmetry and trading patterns and setups
39 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:31,890 become very, very clean and very high probability when that occurs. Okay, since we taken up this low, I'm sorry, this high rather here. Okay, one could do this
40 00:09:32,460 --> 00:09:49,410 one, high down this low. You have 127 up here, and you want to go up here, which incidentally is an old high back here, zoom out. See that is the case and we're
41 00:09:49,410 --> 00:10:00,630 here. Again, it's assuming we do have traction and continue to move higher. The next pair we're gonna look at is the British Pound USD and Here you guys are
42 00:10:00,630 --> 00:10:16,560 nice order block and reaction. This is put on the charts in advance and you can see the reaction of price afterwards. But we're going to look at taking this fit
43 00:10:16,560 --> 00:10:35,580 off. And we'll take the rectangle off because zoom out a little bit. Okay, now we have the same scenario here, we have price moving down, nice price leg here,
44 00:10:36,270 --> 00:10:46,050 comes in and rejects this low. Okay, there's several of them in here that you can use. Obviously, we'll use this one here, this swing, when this high here,
45 00:10:46,050 --> 00:10:59,160 rancor and it's broke to the upside, you'll see the Fibonacci levels come into play. Here's the 127 easily reached 162 and then 200 extension here. Okay, going
46 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:14,280 back to this higher market structure high here, using that same reference low.  This is how you trade within a markets structure. So once this heist violated
47 00:11:14,490 --> 00:11:28,140 right here, we would be looking for upside objectives. 127 easily reached 162 easily reached 200 level easily reached. Okay. Let's go out to an hourly chart,
48 00:11:28,380 --> 00:11:36,450 same pair. Okay, let's scroll up. And now
49 00:11:43,169 --> 00:12:00,299 I can get this fib. Okay, we'll use this high here. And price just reached the 127 extension here. And the upside would be 162. And if you use this high here,
50 00:12:00,779 --> 00:12:10,049 all we're doing is moving on to the next excessive market high. So each one of these is a price when you have a high down that low. You have a high down there
51 00:12:10,049 --> 00:12:28,289 that same oil. Okay, these are all reference points for reactions. Okay, yeah.  1.7. Now here. And yeah, this one here is a lot of liquidity sitting right above
52 00:12:28,289 --> 00:12:38,099 that these are all hourly candles, unable to make a higher high in here. And we're about to blow that out right now while I'm recording. And then the 127
53 00:12:38,129 --> 00:12:55,679 resides up there. Now, with these levels in mind, okay. We're going to highlight that 162 to 127.
54 00:13:03,390 --> 00:13:17,310 Now, what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna reference this larger price ceiling. Because remember, markets are fractal, okay? And the high down to lowest low. You see
55 00:13:17,310 --> 00:13:27,420 what resides over here. Here's the 62% sweet spot in sunlights chase model, there's a high probability to cable or reach up to these levels in here.
56 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:51,780 Okay, and Nick is no debt right in there. Okay, and that would be a good area to have some scenarios. We have one more block in here. That can be a factor if we
57 00:13:52,110 --> 00:14:06,780 get through this area in here. Because this is a nice support level. Never been retested. So we may come out at 62% retracement on that 161 25 level 161 30. So
58 00:14:06,780 --> 00:14:19,860 we could tap into that. But I'm blending a couple things here but the Fibonacci price projections but you got to you got to do a few examples. Here you can see
59 00:14:19,860 --> 00:14:33,120 how useful they are and from the time we did our recording the last time let's just give a sell scenario. We have this price rally up. When this low is
60 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:45,450 violated as it is here. This low becomes a fulcrum point in any price action.  From that point. From that low appear once it's finally lower. Here's the 127
61 00:14:45,450 --> 00:15:03,390 easily met 162 easily met 200% extension easily met. Okay. And you could probably see KYC do that while I'm recording This kind of tend to relate to keep
62 00:15:03,390 --> 00:15:15,720 it on this sheet when it does, but anyway, you just watch it on your charts in retrospect, but you can see obviously, the fibs, when you have it in the right
63 00:15:15,750 --> 00:15:26,730 direction. They're very strong in terms of looking for high level, upside and downside objectives. We have this low made here from this high. I'll just give
64 00:15:26,730 --> 00:15:39,270 you a bullish scenario on the cable. I'm dragging and as you can see the levels and reactions to the highs here is high down to that low 127. Easily met 162
65 00:15:39,270 --> 00:15:49,320 easily met 200 extension bang swept through just a few times in here. Again, this is why we do not try to get all that we don't care that it does this, okay.
66 00:15:49,950 --> 00:16:02,340 If one is able to just get a piece a you got it in here being up to 160 to 210 pips, nothing wrong with that and who cares about the remaining portion? Okay?
67 00:16:03,870 --> 00:16:09,000 Let the Cubs eat. Alright, so I hope that's been insightful to you guys.
68 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:28,140 Okay, guys, we're going to be looking at how stop loss playing placement is utilize in your trading, we're gonna be looking at how risk percentage is an
69 00:16:28,170 --> 00:16:36,600 important factor here trading. But before we get into all that, we're gonna be looking at how, obviously looking at a bullish scenario here, everything we
70 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:46,290 talked about in this example, can be flipped 180 degrees, okay, and you'll see the opposite for selling scenarios. Okay, so every row you see here, just
71 00:16:46,290 --> 00:16:57,210 reverse it. And you'll get the understanding for selling short in the market and in how to control your stops. And in such, okay, we're going to assume that we
72 00:16:57,210 --> 00:17:06,330 have a key level and or institutional order block identified on our charts. And again, we're gonna be looking at a daily chart for this example. And the market
73 00:17:06,330 --> 00:17:20,820 has been showing in this crude example, in hypothetical terms, that price would be more or less trading down to our line here of anticipation. And as price
74 00:17:20,820 --> 00:17:31,590 starts to move aggressively down to that level, we will be hopefully, if we're not in front of our charts, we would have our platform for trading alert us to
75 00:17:31,740 --> 00:17:42,150 the fact that price is getting to our specific higher timeframe price level, as price trades to that level. Again, because we are flexible, we are not limiting
76 00:17:42,150 --> 00:17:51,840 our perspective is simply to one line, therefore it has to stop on that line turn on a dime. Okay, there is a gray area in trading that we I identified
77 00:17:51,840 --> 00:18:02,340 earlier in the series. And we've come to hopefully by now, terms with the fact that we can't get perfection in the marketplace in terms of turning points,
78 00:18:02,370 --> 00:18:12,660 okay, we have rough ideas, where price should turn, but even the highest level key levels, and support levels and institutional order blocks have a little bit
79 00:18:12,660 --> 00:18:23,340 of gray areas where it could deviate a little bit. But more specifically, we're gonna be highlighting, obviously, all of our trades around key levels around
80 00:18:23,340 --> 00:18:33,690 numbers, institutional levels, and a confluence of support and resistance factors with time of day. Okay, so you haven't time and price theory combined.
81 00:18:34,740 --> 00:18:45,900 So as price goes down into this level, that's when we are on the prowl for a buy scenario, okay, we're trying to buy during that event, we don't want to be
82 00:18:45,900 --> 00:18:53,790 buying after the move has already turned around, and everybody sees that it's a swing low, it's moved for three or four days, we want to be buying in a
83 00:18:53,790 --> 00:19:02,100 suppressed market environment, we want to be looking at bargain prices, okay?  And we don't want to be buying at retail prices, we want to be buying wholesale.
84 00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:14,160 Okay, so assuming that we use information that we talked about earlier in this series, in terms of framing a reactionary level to a trade, we're going to
85 00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:22,650 assume that we anticipated at that key level, the market had turned Okay, and maybe retested and gave us an optimal trade entry on a lower timeframe. Now,
86 00:19:22,650 --> 00:19:32,970 we're going to assume for this example, that we were fortunate enough to catch a long position at that key level, okay. And it's not important that we have a
87 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:44,220 specific price level in this example. Because really, what we're going to be looking at is how traders are always in my experience, okay, even when I was an
88 00:19:44,220 --> 00:19:53,610 early developing trader, I felt the need to want to exit the trade immediately.  As soon as I saw some gains, I had, you know, this overwhelming feeling that I
89 00:19:53,610 --> 00:20:02,640 had to hurry up and get out and close the trade. If I was of several $100 I would think wow, this is good. You know, I've taken losses in a series of
90 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:14,850 losses, this feels good. And I just would rather not leave the market with another loss after seeing these gains when you have a sound entry, many times,
91 00:20:14,850 --> 00:20:26,640 those are the scariest trades to hold on to, okay? Because the good trades don't spend their time very long at wholesale prices, they immediately start to move
92 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:37,290 to retail level pricing, okay. In other words, if you're able to catch a very low price point, and you're long in the marketplace, you anticipate as a
93 00:20:37,290 --> 00:20:47,280 professional trader prices moving rather aggressively away from that level.  Okay. And that's what we talked about earlier in our series that the more
94 00:20:47,970 --> 00:20:58,260 conviction that we see behind price moving away from from a specific level that we hopefully pre determined in advance, that is what we would anticipate seeing
95 00:20:58,290 --> 00:21:07,440 in our trades, once we've entered it, we don't want to see the market dragging its heels and, and lethargically moving around, because we're gonna be
96 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:09,900 mentioning time stops in this
97 00:21:10,260 --> 00:21:17,550 in this episode, too. I'm not going to beat it to death. But I do use a time stop, and I'll explain that as we get to that point. But as the market starts to
98 00:21:17,550 --> 00:21:27,420 move in our favor, okay, we will be reaching for our predetermined price points, like we discussed in part five of the series, where we looked at the fib to give
99 00:21:27,420 --> 00:21:37,860 the 127 162 extensions as possible upside objectives. Now, again, those with the confines of supporting factors with support resistance, maybe even pivot points,
100 00:21:38,820 --> 00:21:48,120 something like an old high or low to to frame those upper level objectives, not simply because the fib calls that level, we want to be looking for other things
101 00:21:48,120 --> 00:21:58,590 as well, again, factoring the time and day of week phenomenon as well. Now, again, getting back to this crude example, as we have here, when the market is
102 00:21:58,590 --> 00:22:12,300 now moving away from your entry point. Okay, one of the closest things to insanity is when you have this environment, unfolding for you, profitably, okay.
103 00:22:13,350 --> 00:22:28,620 It's amazing how traders and I know this firsthand. Okay, when I first began trading, I would hold a losing trade for ever and for forever. And forever. I'm
104 00:22:28,620 --> 00:22:37,950 sure you probably felt that same thing to your trading, because you really want to see a turnaround. Yeah, hope springs eternal. Not in forex, not in
105 00:22:37,950 --> 00:22:45,960 speculation, and certainly not in trading. Okay. So the market doesn't have to go back to your price point. Okay, if you look at the Dow, just look at anything
106 00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:56,040 from seven months ago. It's been a while since In fact, there's levels. Okay. So if you've been waiting for the market to get back to those levels, man, you're
107 00:22:56,040 --> 00:23:07,200 gonna grind these pieces. Okay. So don't do that have a predetermined area where you would expect to cut your losses short. Okay. What is the industry standard
108 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:21,120 for risk? Okay, you commonly hear and I hear myself say it all the time, these videos, because I want to more or less segue into the majority of everyone's
109 00:23:21,120 --> 00:23:30,420 expectations and analysis. But really what I try to do is say, Okay, look, everybody says 2% of your equity portrayed. Okay. And if you're really, really
110 00:23:30,420 --> 00:23:41,970 solid trader, there's nothing wrong with that. Okay. Now, I suggest that traders should work within the realm of 1% of their equity portrayed. The reason for
111 00:23:41,970 --> 00:23:54,420 that is assuming that you had a $10,000 trading account, and you were risking 1%, how much money would be at risk per trade $100 against the standard 2%,
112 00:23:54,450 --> 00:24:05,970 which would be 200 hours per trade total risk. And the way you determine your PIP size is you take that $200, if it's 2%, or 1%, at $100, total risk of
113 00:24:06,360 --> 00:24:21,030 assuming that you have a $10,000 trading account. If it's a $1,000 trading account, then it would be a $10 for 1% or $20, for 2%, total equity risk per
114 00:24:21,030 --> 00:24:31,080 trade, whatever that dollar amount is percentage wise, whether it be 1% or 2%.  Ideally, 1% or less. I came in, I knew that probably sounds like weed and I
115 00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:36,690 can't make a lot of money with that. That's right, because if you're just starting out, you need to forget about making a whole lot of money because you
116 00:24:36,690 --> 00:24:46,320 got a whole lot of learning to do. So assuming that you did have a $10,000 account. Okay, and you've worked with smaller accounts, you've proven to
117 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:56,280 yourself that you could be disciplined. You have a track record of being consistent. You control your risk, you limit your losses, you let your profits
118 00:24:56,280 --> 00:25:11,160 run and your target started getting hit on more consistent basis, you have a risk of 100 hours per trade, which is 1% of $10,000. You take that $100 and you
119 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:24,150 divide that by the total pips. Okay needed to justify your trade. Okay, and, but the assumption that this is a daily chart here, it could be very easily in the
120 00:25:24,150 --> 00:25:28,890 realm of 100 pips or more, okay, which would put you at very, very low
121 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:38,040 leverage for the trading, which really in a way isn't that bad. But I know a lot of you folks watching this really want to have a little bit more bang for your
122 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:49,590 buck. So using the concepts we used in the earlier videos, if you move down to a lower timeframe, you can reduce your you do reduce your risk to less than 50
123 00:25:49,590 --> 00:26:00,450 pips anywhere between 3040 is about ideal, I, in my opinion, because it allows the developing trader to have a little bit of a fudge factor, where they're not
124 00:26:00,450 --> 00:26:11,400 expected to be so precise with their stops, okay, and gives you a little bit of flexibility, because I know, inherently that traders will rush to entry, or they
125 00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:18,540 will look for confirmation in their eyes, quote, unquote, confirmation by letting the trade start to move a little bit in their favor and then chase it
126 00:26:18,540 --> 00:26:32,670 but very close to their entry price, but still within the risk parameters as permitted by their method or this concept. So if you had that in mind, okay, you
127 00:26:32,670 --> 00:26:51,600 could have basically $3.30, roughly, per Pip, if you trading a $10,000 account, with 1% risk using a 30. Pip stop, okay? The reason why the industry standard is
128 00:26:51,600 --> 00:27:02,130 2%, sometimes you hear in certain circles, you could risk more than 2%. Okay, because that's what the real traders and the real professionals are doing, I can
129 00:27:02,130 --> 00:27:11,100 tell you, the real professional traders aren't doing that, okay, they're not risking a whole lot of their money. For disclosure sake, I do risk as much as
130 00:27:11,100 --> 00:27:21,240 much as three and a half percent, that means I'm trading with the higher timeframe, weekly, daily, and four hour all in the same direction, everything's
131 00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:36,270 lined up with those three timeframes. And I have a weekly bias that's in the same direction. And that will allow me based on my abilities and experience
132 00:27:36,270 --> 00:27:47,310 trading, I will risk up to, and it's not a whole lot that it happens, but up to three and a half percent of my equity for one trade. Typically, it'll be
133 00:27:47,310 --> 00:27:57,660 anywhere between one and one and a half percent. Because the timeframes aren't always lined up like that, you'll have a counter trend move going against one of
134 00:27:57,660 --> 00:28:09,600 the primary higher time frame time zone, not time zones per timeframe, you know, weekly, daily, and four hour. So if I'm trading against that on a lower
135 00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:24,000 timeframe, obviously, one, one and a half percent is a maximum. For sure. If I'm trading with a daily and for our in the same direction, I can be as much as 2%.
136 00:28:24,690 --> 00:28:38,130 risk. Now, how high is high? Okay, I think if anybody's risking more than, you know, obviously 3% unless you're really really proficient, you really know what
137 00:28:38,130 --> 00:28:47,880 you're doing. And you know how to turn your equity losing string around. Because it's not just one trade that you lose on guys, sometimes you get a couple of
138 00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:58,320 them in a row. And even the best traders out there will suffer that and have suffered that regardless of what they tell you. So assuming that's the case for
139 00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:07,590 you, and you're human like everyone else, you have to have an idea of how to control that. And the best way to do it is reducing your overall exposure as you
140 00:29:07,590 --> 00:29:17,310 take losses. Okay. And I'll give you an example. Let's assume for a minute you settled in on the idea of taking 2% portrayed. If you go loss, you've lost 2% of
141 00:29:17,310 --> 00:29:25,590 equity. Okay, now, if you dress 2% of the next trade again, thinking that well if I make the same amount of money I lost on my previous trade, I'll get back to
142 00:29:25,590 --> 00:29:40,680 even that's where the cycle begins. Okay. You want to get back to that previous equity level that milestone that marker, okay, that comfort zone, internally as
143 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:51,870 a trader, and that's not a good game to play. Okay. And what happens is, is you're actually inviting more emotional response and triggers into your trading
144 00:29:51,930 --> 00:30:04,410 than you should have. Okay? And, by systematically methodically reducing your risk in half Okay, for instance, if you took a loss at 2%, you only risk 1% of
145 00:30:04,410 --> 00:30:13,770 next trade, it may take you two or three trades to get back to that previous mile marker. But guess what it's doing is removing the rush factor to get back
146 00:30:13,770 --> 00:30:24,060 to that point. And it's honing your patience with the added benefit of lowering your overall exposure exposure to the marketplace. Now think about you're in a
147 00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:25,230 losing
148 00:30:27,690 --> 00:30:36,960 environment where you've had suffered a loss for a developing trader, that is very, very hard to swallow, regardless if it's a demo account or not, because
149 00:30:37,290 --> 00:30:45,450 you are still working within the realm of psychological and emotional barriers that you just simply don't understand until you've traded through it, or you've
150 00:30:45,450 --> 00:30:54,090 experienced it and said, This isn't for me, and you leave the market altogether.  And there's nothing wrong with that, because trading is not for everyone. And it
151 00:30:54,090 --> 00:31:04,950 would be irresponsible of me as a mentor, to not at least suggest that to some of you. Because if you can't wrap your mind around doing this, and assuming some
152 00:31:04,950 --> 00:31:18,060 level of risk, this is absolutely not your cup of tea, okay. And that's one thing you can guarantee coming from me as the gospel. Not everyone and on the
153 00:31:18,060 --> 00:31:29,970 planet is meant to do this. And it takes a certain level of commitment and tenacity to stick within a realm of rules. And humans are typically very good
154 00:31:29,970 --> 00:31:37,230 rule breakers, we don't like to, you know, follow the rules. And just think about if you walk down the street in a well groomed neighborhood, and you see a
155 00:31:37,230 --> 00:31:45,660 sign says don't step on the grass, what's the first thing you want to do? Step on the grass. Just look at a kid, that's what they're gonna do. You know, I made
156 00:31:46,410 --> 00:31:55,140 so many jokes as my children were growing up, that they were like heat seeking missiles, okay, we we get new carpet in the home, and my wife or a guest would
157 00:31:55,140 --> 00:32:03,870 come over and need invariably have their, their drink with them. And in our new dining area, we're not losing room or family room, and our children would come
158 00:32:03,870 --> 00:32:14,400 in and being kids, they would roughhouse, you know, just for a second. And they won't fall away from the tables or fall away from the person, the only person in
159 00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:22,770 the room with the drink, they fall and land, either on the drink, or indeed a person drops and goes all over the the white carpet or at the time, you know, we
160 00:32:22,770 --> 00:32:33,420 have a very light colored tan carpet and the drink, you cause you havoc on it, we got to get it cleaned. So those things are going to happen. So you had to
161 00:32:33,420 --> 00:32:44,250 prepare for it. So you're going to have that in your trading with wanting to do something you shouldn't do. And you're going to have that Murphy's Law scenario
162 00:32:44,250 --> 00:32:52,770 as well, what can go wrong, probably will go wrong, okay, so you have to have that, that shield up in your defense. And that's only going to come in the form
163 00:32:52,800 --> 00:33:01,770 of you controlling your equity. Okay, and if you take a loss, don't be afraid to cut your risk on the next trade. And if you had to do that, and continuously
164 00:33:01,770 --> 00:33:12,660 down to a half percent total risk of your equity, that's fine. There's nothing wrong with that. Okay? Remove from your mind, right now that you want to make
165 00:33:12,660 --> 00:33:21,840 millions of dollars right now. Okay, because that is the wrong perspective going in. There's nothing wrong with having goals or doing that. But initially, you
166 00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:30,330 have to take the bite first, okay, and chew the elephant, one bite at a time, you just can't go in and try to swallow it all at once because you'll choke. So
167 00:33:31,380 --> 00:33:43,920 with that in mind, okay, once these moves start to move in your favor, okay, you obviously want to be able to remove the risk, okay. And at least during the
168 00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:53,490 move, new trading in your favor, you want to be removing a little bit of the risk, methodically until you get to the point where you have zero risk or, quote
169 00:33:53,490 --> 00:34:00,900 unquote, no risk exposure, okay, obviously, anything that happened in marketplace, you know, something can happen new markets could gap because of,
170 00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:09,720 you know, terrorist event or something unexpected in the in the Fed or whatever.  And there'll be a massive movement and your your stop loss experiences, and
171 00:34:09,720 --> 00:34:18,000 slippage. These are all things we understood when we signed up for this game. So bottom line is, is it can happen, prepare yourself for it, because you're going
172 00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:25,080 to take losses, and if you trade of any length of time, you're gonna have a lot of losses, okay? And there's certainly nothing wrong with it. It's a cost of
173 00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:35,280 doing business. Every successful business out there takes a loss of some sort, but you don't see those businesses collectively going out of business. Okay,
174 00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:44,700 they, they, they trim, they put things up for sale, just to get rid of inventories ain't moving real fast, and they bring in you the better movers,
175 00:34:44,730 --> 00:34:53,220 okay. And that's what you do for your trading. If your trades aren't really panning out, yeah. Cut the losses short, okay, or the meals that aren't really
176 00:34:53,220 --> 00:35:03,660 moving. You just get rid of them. And then you keep your powder dry waiting for the next setup. If you do that Okay, if you do that, I think you'll see a more
177 00:35:03,660 --> 00:35:14,730 streamlined increase in your equity. And I think you'll remove a lot of that whipsaw, you possibly have been seen in your equity curve on your beginning
178 00:35:14,730 --> 00:35:15,870 balance and where you're at now.
179 00:35:18,210 --> 00:35:29,250 time stops, okay, I have a premise that if the move doesn't start, if I'm, if I'm trading off of a daily timeframe, and it really doesn't start to move in my
180 00:35:29,250 --> 00:35:40,710 favor after three days, okay, I'm aggressively either removing the risk if possible, or I'm taking half the position off, okay, and I'm watching my six.
181 00:35:41,340 --> 00:35:49,230 The military has an expression that, you know, wherever you're pointing your rifle, okay, or a firearm in front of you, that's 12 o'clock, your six is behind
182 00:35:49,230 --> 00:35:59,670 you, okay? Or watch your ass. Okay, what you're looking at in the marketplace, when you see a trade, it isn't moving in your favor, right away. And I think
183 00:35:59,670 --> 00:36:07,740 three days is enough time. If it's still consolidating, or still him hauling around not really moving, I'm looking to either take half the position off and
184 00:36:07,740 --> 00:36:18,600 move my main position to either breakeven or aggressively take it to half the initial risk, or even a quarter of the initial risk. Okay, so I may like the
185 00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:27,360 overall setup that still might be there, but it could be iffy, you just watch your six, take your position and cut it in half, remove aggressively half the
186 00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:38,970 initial risk, if possible, or at least reduce it down to a quarter of the initial risk on the remaining half positions you leave on. Or simply bail out.
187 00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:48,630 Just collapse the trade. Okay, and if you're underwater just by a few pips, so what, you know, if you're risking 30, and you're down 19. And you just see that
188 00:36:48,630 --> 00:36:59,700 it's really not moving. And you go on until Friday, perhaps as the worst scenario for me, I will collapse it and just take whatever that is, as a modest
189 00:36:59,700 --> 00:37:09,810 loss. You know, you didn't get stopped out, No, you didn't get in your targets, but you're getting rent getting rid of the dog, or you getting rid of the slow
190 00:37:09,810 --> 00:37:18,510 moving inventory and you want to get another hopefully more opportune set up with your equity behind it. So that way, you can recoup that. And if you do
191 00:37:18,510 --> 00:37:30,930 that, you systematically refine it, all those little tiny scratches immediately get smoothed out quickly with your move in my equity into a better more sound
192 00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:40,620 setup. So timestamps is something that you to me, I think it's beneficial. It's a little bit of an art to it. But I break it down like this, if it's going to be
193 00:37:40,740 --> 00:37:51,660 a trade, it's based off with daily setup, I gave it about three days. And if I'm trading off of a four hour, I'm really giving in about one day. And one hour
194 00:37:51,660 --> 00:38:01,260 chart is I'm giving it two sessions tops, okay. Ideally, either the London or New York session, if it hasn't moved by, then you know, it's on an hourly basis.
195 00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:11,850 I'm really looking to reduce the risk and or collapse it. And anything less than that, I really don't have a timestamp for on outside of the intraday timeframes
196 00:38:11,850 --> 00:38:22,620 of London, to London, close London open to London close rather. So assuming, obviously, that we have our scenario that unfolded here, hypothetically, and we
197 00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:34,440 suggesting a we bought long in this market, whatever that market may be, we'll say this is the euro. And the market starts to move in our favor. So we have
198 00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:48,150 some some paper profits right now. Our stops are still at an initial 30% I'm sorry, 30 pips. And we have not yet made our first profit objective. So what do
199 00:38:48,150 --> 00:38:58,170 we do? Well, you want to be systematically reducing your risk. If you started with a 30 PIP stop, move it down to only 20 pips. And as the market moves and
200 00:38:58,170 --> 00:39:08,880 takes out your first target, take your stop loss and move it to only 10% risk.  Okay? And as it moves and starts approaching your second target, that's when you
201 00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:20,640 go to breakeven, okay? You do not rush your stop trailing. Okay, this is one of the biggest mistakes traders make. Because of the natural volatility in the
202 00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:32,400 Forex market. It's so easy for just common volatility. Nothing behind it new market makers sneaking to get you. It's normal volatility. Okay,
203 00:39:32,430 --> 00:39:41,910 illiquid volatility. Okay, we're marked on down. Phil Phil's market inefficiencies and they take the market down to a specific level to gather up
204 00:39:41,910 --> 00:39:50,910 any orders and and go the other way. Okay, we're not talking about stop ragers looking for common little intraday. retracements. Okay. If you rapidly move your
205 00:39:50,910 --> 00:40:02,520 stop loss up behind market pricing, you're asking to get taken avatrade before it comes to fruition. Okay. Once you have this setup, what you're doing is
206 00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:13,230 you're anticipating the market to start to move in your favor. But this is a gray area because you don't know for sure it's going to do that. Okay? Yes, the
207 00:40:13,230 --> 00:40:21,810 market could potentially can continue to move in your favor. Or it could turn around and stop you out. Or could stay in this small little consolidation area
208 00:40:22,230 --> 00:40:31,170 for days and make no money for you but a small profit, but you'll hold on to it thinking it's going to go to the moon, I know you because everybody's the same
209 00:40:31,170 --> 00:40:39,900 way when they're developing. We all think the markets are gonna go like a rocket either up or crash down. Okay, to the ground, like a, you know, a meteor just
210 00:40:39,900 --> 00:40:48,720 plummeting to the earth. It's, they don't move in straight lines, guys. Okay, so while we would anticipate, okay, higher prices, and we expect that hopefully,
211 00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:57,840 okay, hopefully, that we see that, again, keeping in mind, that's a gray area, we're expecting those price levels to be reached on the upper side, but they're
212 00:40:57,840 --> 00:41:11,940 not promised. Okay. So inside of that, that, that gray area of anticipation, we have an expected outcome in price action, but we can effectively manage our
213 00:41:11,940 --> 00:41:24,120 stops within that move. Okay, and there's a way that I do it. But once you have your setup, the way I manage my stop losses, is I use a 15 minute timeframe.
214 00:41:24,510 --> 00:41:35,490 Okay. And the 15 minute because this setup in this whole series have been really developed on finding one solid weekly set up where you can take a really good
215 00:41:35,490 --> 00:41:46,680 setup for a weekly opportunity to make a consistent realm of pips anywhere between 30 to 60. pips i think is an ideal scenario for someone to try to carve
216 00:41:46,680 --> 00:41:56,310 out a consistent living. And if you are consistently doing that, there's certainly no reason why you can't take a very handsome living out of this, this
217 00:41:56,310 --> 00:42:09,090 marketplace and not trade a whole lot of pairs either. So why don't use the 15 minute time frame? Well, there is very clear, discernible dealing ranges and
218 00:42:09,090 --> 00:42:20,610 support resistance levels, okay, that are clearly discernible on that timeframe, and allows you to look at a whole weekly perspective, perspective, from Sunday
219 00:42:20,610 --> 00:42:31,650 to Friday's close. Perfect example, to pick any pair of your chosen, load up a 15 minute chart, condense your chart, so it shows Sunday to Friday's close. And
220 00:42:31,650 --> 00:42:43,140 you'll see how that timeframe gives you all of this session highs and lows and even gives you a very clear snapshot of all of the volatility for those
221 00:42:43,140 --> 00:42:51,480 particular sessions. London, New York, Asia and you can actually see where the range highs and lows are very clearly and then you can see the small little
222 00:42:51,480 --> 00:43:03,180 quiet points in the marketplace in between those sessions. Also, the notion of find the weekly high by Tuesday are no later than Wednesday is London open
223 00:43:03,930 --> 00:43:13,110 having that in mind Okay, expecting a specific outcome based on hard timeframe directional premise, but that assumption here being bullish, we'll be looking
224 00:43:13,110 --> 00:43:23,130 for the monday tuesday or wednesday London open session low making it for the weekly low by that time okay don't respond Wednesdays London open at the very
225 00:43:23,130 --> 00:43:33,600 least typically get about 70% likelihood that the lows usually formed by Tuesday's long and open just reverse that obviously for bearish conditions. But
226 00:43:34,110 --> 00:43:46,950 you know, the way I manage my stops once they've moved to breakeven, I use a 15 minute timeframe. And I find the most recent swing low on a 15 minute basis. I
227 00:43:46,950 --> 00:43:57,900 knew that one and then I go back to the previous swing low prior to that one that swing lows where I take my stop and I just place it just on in bullish
228 00:43:57,900 --> 00:44:09,690 environments just beneath it by 10 to 15 pips, okay 10 to 15 pips below the second most recent swing low on a 15 minute timeframe. And I trail the market
229 00:44:09,690 --> 00:44:18,900 like that I'm giving my market, a little bit of opportunity, okay to retrace but not Kamali back down. If it comes back down that far. I'm accepting the fact
230 00:44:18,900 --> 00:44:26,460 that you know, the move is probably done, I missed an ideal opportunity to get out. Or the markets reverse and my analysis was wrong and there's certainly
231 00:44:26,460 --> 00:44:31,320 nothing wrong with admitting that but by using the previous to
232 00:44:32,340 --> 00:44:43,920 swing lows, okay, what it's doing is it's allowing successive 79% retracement levels, okay. And when we look at an examples, you'll see what I mean by that,
233 00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:55,230 but it just it builds in a allowance for market structure to continue to make higher highs and higher lows. Okay. Plus, it keeps it away from just pure static
234 00:44:55,230 --> 00:45:06,900 volatility coming down and tagging you okay? That's the reason why you want to be taking some profits. Okay initially, okay, it may be 20 pips, maybe 30 pips,
235 00:45:06,900 --> 00:45:13,680 you may be getting one for one and let the remaining portion of your trade unwind, okay, and then reach for hard objectives. There's nothing wrong with
236 00:45:13,680 --> 00:45:21,360 that. But there's going to be a camp out there that listens to this and says, Well, you know, you're risking 30 pips. But then when you cut the position in
237 00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:32,880 half at 20 or 30 pips, you're really not making any headway with doing it. Well, I beg to differ. Okay? If you have consistency on your side, you are shielding
238 00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:39,570 yourself from the inevitable market turn around while you're in the trade where it does have a small profit, okay? And there's nothing guaranteed it's going to
239 00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:51,330 get to your first target objective, or second, or move in your favor at all.  Okay, that camp that believes that taking some partial profits, has a fixation
240 00:45:51,330 --> 00:45:59,220 that thinking that they're always going to be right. So therefore, their trade should hold on to the maximum lots that were assumed at the beginning of trade,
241 00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:09,000 for the full duration of the trade, with the expectation of making maximum profit. My goal was a professional trader, and it should be yours as well. Your
242 00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:18,930 goal is to have the maximum protection from losing your money, because the likelihood of you doing that is almost guaranteed, versus the likelihood of you
243 00:46:18,930 --> 00:46:27,300 making money consistently. Okay, think about that for a moment. You didn't listen to it closely. Rewind this video for a sec, couple minutes, and then go
244 00:46:27,300 --> 00:46:39,000 back and listen that portion part, again, because it is worth its weight in gold. It's so easy for us to think that we're going to make more money. If we
245 00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:49,230 hold more reach for higher price objectives or lower price objectives. If we're short. There's no guarantee it's getting there. No guarantee. And there's been
246 00:46:49,230 --> 00:46:57,630 so many times where I've been so close to the actual highs and lows of the particular market. I was trading, okay, I'm talking weekly highs, where the
247 00:46:57,630 --> 00:47:07,200 market turned around and then went months the other direction. Okay. I have been so close where I've just been partial, I mean a piece of a pip not even a full
248 00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:18,780 Pip. And I didn't get my exit. Okay. And to me, I hate that feeling. A lot of folks would say me, that's, that's cool. That's crazy accuracy. Yeah, but I
249 00:47:18,780 --> 00:47:27,180 didn't get out of that point. So how accurate is it? It just because I said it was going to go there I had an order to get out and the only trades a half a pip
250 00:47:27,180 --> 00:47:36,270 to that point, it doesn't activate new the order. That doesn't make me smart. It doesn't make me an excellent trader, it makes me a person that missed that move.
251 00:47:36,630 --> 00:47:46,380 Okay, I didn't get my trade off, like I wanted to. And initially as a commodity trader, I, you know, I would make that mistake. And it would, it would get close
252 00:47:46,380 --> 00:47:53,910 to my orders. And I'm saying this when I started getting consistent that when I first started because I wasn't that accurate. I didn't know anything else is
253 00:47:53,910 --> 00:48:06,690 fine. You flying by the seat of my pants. The the notion of holding on to moves to get the last piece of the pie is, you know, it's a losers mentality. You
254 00:48:06,690 --> 00:48:20,820 don't want to do that. You just need a big portion of the move. And I just think like a wine, you know, to me, I think he's, he's it in on the on the terrain of,
255 00:48:20,970 --> 00:48:33,510 you know, the outback, or, you know, the outback, I guess the Africa is playing, I guess as well thinking about you, when they when they eat, okay? They eat a
256 00:48:33,510 --> 00:48:45,780 large portion of whatever was taken down by Linus, okay. But they're not consuming everything. And those are what the line does, okay? He lets the
257 00:48:45,780 --> 00:48:53,010 lionesses do the work. They chase down the prey, they take it down, they kill it. Okay, they may be getting a nibble or two, okay? But he comes over and says,
258 00:48:53,010 --> 00:48:58,860 Okay, look, it's obvious things did, I'm not wasting any effort. Okay, I'm gonna go over there and run them off.
259 00:48:59,430 --> 00:49:09,810 I'm gonna eat what I want. And I ain't going to consume it all. I'll leave a portion for them to eat too. But he's getting the lion's share. Every move has a
260 00:49:09,810 --> 00:49:21,570 lion's share, all you need is a portion of that. Or the Linus is starving? No.  Are the Cubs starving? No, everybody's gonna get their piece of the pie. But you
261 00:49:21,570 --> 00:49:29,520 don't have to rush in here. Trying to get the very, very low and get the very, very high nonwords You don't need to make the kill. And that turns the market
262 00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:40,890 around. And you don't have to make the apex, you know high. Okay, you don't have to find the very lowest point of the low. Okay, you leave a little bit on there.
263 00:49:40,950 --> 00:49:49,830 Okay, let those other traders try to chase all that stuff. You don't need that.  And the same thing applies. it's applicable to your stops, give it some room.
264 00:49:49,890 --> 00:49:57,660 Don't be afraid to have the market come back against you. And some of the exercises that you need to be doing is to have a demo account and put your
265 00:49:57,660 --> 00:50:08,700 trades on and let them Come all the way down to your stop. Okay? Don't think about targets just think okay, I'm gonna be buying today at eight GMT.
266 00:50:09,030 --> 00:50:19,290 Regardless, wherever the price is up at 30 pips stop one, and just watch what price does, okay? And just assume what you'd be feeling. If you were in the
267 00:50:19,290 --> 00:50:30,090 marketplace at that time, how the market trades down to your stop what it does after it hits it, okay? And then start applying it with your tools that we
268 00:50:30,090 --> 00:50:38,850 learned in these videos. Okay, applying the price action study, then using a 30 PIP stop below the entry point that where you enter that, okay, and watch the
269 00:50:38,850 --> 00:50:49,470 market move once it takes the first profit target that we discussed at 127 extension, or an old high did you pull your own fib from when you see that first
270 00:50:49,470 --> 00:51:00,510 target hit, don't move your stop up. Okay? Do a couple trades like I do about 20 trades or so. Like that, we just go to breakeven once first targets hit and then
271 00:51:00,510 --> 00:51:09,480 wait for the second target to be fulfilled, do not move the stop either you get the second target or you get stopped out. Do that for 20 trades, okay? And it's
272 00:51:09,480 --> 00:51:18,630 obviously easier and faster to do it on the intraday basis. Like Don't you have five minutes 15 minutes setups. But some of you traders can't do that because
273 00:51:18,630 --> 00:51:27,090 you're you have jobs or whatever, but that's fine. But then eventually then graduate to moving your stop loss in the form that we just discussed. Now by
274 00:51:27,090 --> 00:51:36,840 having a 15 minute time frame use the most to recent swing lows for bullish scenarios 10 to 15 pips below the lowest, or the most recent to swing lows.
275 00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:46,140 Okay. And obviously, just for clarity for those that are selling short, using your demo account. Yeah, I got that in here. I'm not trying to tell you to do
276 00:51:46,140 --> 00:51:56,460 anything with real money. Guys, I'm not licensed to do that. These are just ideas to stimulate you your decision making the selling scenario, you would just
277 00:51:56,460 --> 00:52:05,340 use the 15 minute most recent to swing highs and the highest of the two, you would use your stop loss 10 to 15 pips above it. And you would trail that
278 00:52:05,340 --> 00:52:18,570 accordingly until it hits your ultimate target. That's really the essential element to having stoploss management, there's nothing new, much deeper than
279 00:52:18,570 --> 00:52:26,850 that. It's very simple. I try not to complicate it, I use it have all kinds of intricate ways of doing this and doing that. And I found that you just simply by
280 00:52:26,850 --> 00:52:34,950 taking a 15 minute chart, use the most recent swing lows and highs wherever to wherever those two are, whatever the lowest one is, that's where I'm going to
281 00:52:34,950 --> 00:52:38,940 have my stop in, in, in relationship to where price is now.
282 00:52:55,170 --> 00:53:06,570 Okay, guys, in Episode Seven, we're gonna be looking at selecting multiple targets. We talking about setting a limit orders at logical price levels for
283 00:53:06,570 --> 00:53:23,550 exits. And we're gonna be talking about the ICT split gains ratio, leaving some for the just in case scenario, principles for multiple timeframe trading. And
284 00:53:23,550 --> 00:53:36,240 will have the foundation to success that will be given to you in blueprint format in the final episode in this series, Part Eight. And I think you'll have
285 00:53:36,240 --> 00:53:49,020 a pretty good idea of what should be done from beginning to end stages. And I'm using in a flowchart format for the part eight series where you know, if this is
286 00:53:49,020 --> 00:54:03,330 if a condition is x, then you go to this next condition. Once that condition is met, you go to next. So I'm, I'm a computer programmer, and I guess anyone that
287 00:54:03,330 --> 00:54:18,540 has a computer programming experience, would understand that it's the IF THEN scenarios that we learned in computer programming. If If you can't really build
288 00:54:18,570 --> 00:54:30,630 a mindset of trading after Part Eight, I'm going to readily admit that I've failed in in sharing some insight on how you could become a more consistent
289 00:54:30,780 --> 00:54:39,930 trader. I put a lot of work and it may seem like there's been a lot of time between these individual videos, but it's actually been a whole lot of work on
290 00:54:39,930 --> 00:54:50,070 that last one. Because I've tried to give the blanket scenarios for in the common setups that we see you over and over and over again, that's very generic
291 00:54:50,070 --> 00:54:59,970 in the marketplace. And it won't catch every single move guys and don't expect that of anything. But I think you'll be pleasantly surprised how many
292 00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:10,470 opportunities it will give you an what to do and why. And once you do it for a few months, you won't need the flow chart format you'll just simply know by
293 00:55:10,470 --> 00:55:21,450 habit of what you should be doing next and and what to do while the setups are you, you developing. So hopefully this has been insightful to you guys and until
294 00:55:21,480 --> 00:55:23,340 next time, wish good luck in the trading