ICT - Sniper Course - 03 - Field Navigation module.srt
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-10 10:35
| 1 | 00:00:55,980 --> 00:01:05,850 | ICT: Okay guys, welcome to Episode Four in a series ICT scout sniper field training guide. Okay, let's look at what we're gonna be covering in this |
| 2 | 00:01:05,850 --> 00:01:15,330 | presentation, we're gonna be reviewing the previous episodes, assignment price reactions. And we're going to be looking at examples of pricing, price |
| 3 | 00:01:15,330 --> 00:01:27,750 | reactions. We're gonna go over a brief overview of smart money concepts. And we're gonna be looking at interest rates, timeframes, range trend, and power |
| 4 | 00:01:27,750 --> 00:01:38,400 | three. Okay, we're gonna be revealing the market maker. Okay, we're gonna be looking at the ICT market maker by model. And we're gonna be looking at how |
| 5 | 00:01:38,430 --> 00:01:50,790 | dealers operate in support levels. And we're gonna be looking at the ICT market maker. So model and how dealers operate in resistance levels. We're gonna be |
| 6 | 00:01:50,790 --> 00:02:03,090 | looking at how market makers business model works in application, we're gonna be looking at understanding how market maker pairs orders and how orders stack |
| 7 | 00:02:03,090 --> 00:02:15,630 | around key levels. Okay, we're looking at exposing the mechanics of a price swing. And we're going to look at more of the time and especially working around |
| 8 | 00:02:15,690 --> 00:02:27,030 | the ICT kill zones. And we're gonna be looking at the London kill zone, specifically and the New York kill zone. We're gonna be looking at how prices |
| 9 | 00:02:27,060 --> 00:02:38,460 | are crucial to you. And as far as knowing your key levels and how you're setting up your opportunities to trade. And we're gonna be giving you a homework |
| 10 | 00:02:38,460 --> 00:02:40,500 | assignment stalking in the kill zone. |
| 11 | 00:02:46,170 --> 00:02:57,510 | Okay, folks, we are looking at the Euro USD daily chart. And when we're looking at reaction levels, okay, the ones I'm most interested in are obviously found on |
| 12 | 00:02:57,510 --> 00:03:06,090 | the higher time frames now, you can go back to a monthly you can go back to a weekly chart and look for these types of levels as well. But for the sake of |
| 13 | 00:03:06,090 --> 00:03:17,880 | this teaching series, we're just going to focus on the intermediate term market. And that's going to be divide that the daily and four hour. And by hunting the |
| 14 | 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:28,770 | reaction levels on this higher timeframe daily chart and or the four hour chart, it really puts the odds in your favor based on the fact that the institutional |
| 15 | 00:03:28,770 --> 00:03:39,990 | level traders that beats the banks, the large funds and such, they are really watching these key levels. Now. We discuss in the first two episodes, how we can |
| 16 | 00:03:39,990 --> 00:03:50,400 | look at support resistance and have you know, high odds key resistance levels. Now, we're going to build on that in this episode here. But for now, while we're |
| 17 | 00:03:50,400 --> 00:04:02,280 | looking at this, I want to remind you that the last episode, we talked about the fiber being poised to trade lower. Okay. Now, I purposely waited a little while, |
| 18 | 00:04:03,030 --> 00:04:14,010 | not as long as I did, but the third episode out, but I wanted to wait a little while to allow the market to move lower based on that real time, if you want to |
| 19 | 00:04:14,010 --> 00:04:24,540 | call it that, in the recording its time and date stamped on YouTube, the the fiber was called to go lower. Now we're going to frame why that was the case |
| 20 | 00:04:24,540 --> 00:04:34,260 | now, okay, but I want to reiterate the fact that it was called lower beforehand, okay. So the concepts that we're going to employ and go over in this example, |
| 21 | 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:43,560 | are going to be beneficial to you going forward because it's the same type of thing you do over and over and over again, just you know, on your own particular |
| 22 | 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:53,340 | pair, or it could be a stock market, you know, stock or commodity, whatever it is, whatever vehicle or asset class that you find yourself a trader and we're |
| 23 | 00:04:53,340 --> 00:05:02,370 | delving in specifically the FX market here in this series, but it's important that you understand my concepts are generic, okay, and when I say generic, it |
| 24 | 00:05:02,370 --> 00:05:12,360 | means they're not boring in the sense that they're not useful. They're generic in the sense that they're universal. Okay, they apply to every asset class, |
| 25 | 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:24,540 | minor little nuances to have to be taken into consideration. But nonetheless, they are applicable to every market asset class. So the homework assignment was |
| 26 | 00:05:24,540 --> 00:05:33,630 | to look for reaction levels, okay, mark them up on your chart, and then watch what happens in the coming weeks around those particular price levels. Okay, and |
| 27 | 00:05:33,630 --> 00:05:42,990 | we're going to do that now. Now, I'm not going to beat it to death in terms of what reaction levels and what support resistance levels, we should have noted in |
| 28 | 00:05:42,990 --> 00:05:50,940 | our chart. But if we were looking at this example here, and this was real time, in the time, if you sitting down in front of the charts, or when I would be |
| 29 | 00:05:50,940 --> 00:05:58,320 | sitting in front of the charts, this is how I would mark up my charts. Okay, and we're just gonna use the four horizontal lines just to save time because I spent |
| 30 | 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:11,550 | a lot of time monkeying around with adjusting the the app, the right end of a trend line. Now I do like the trend lines because it makes it neater when I'm |
| 31 | 00:06:11,550 --> 00:06:20,820 | drawing horizontal support resistance. Now, I don't like trend lines on a diagonal basis. So don't get me misquoted here, I do not have faith in diagonal |
| 32 | 00:06:20,820 --> 00:06:33,810 | support resistance. But I do have absolute faith and horizontal support resistance as we have here. Now, what I'm doing is some noting every swing high |
| 33 | 00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:44,220 | and swing low, that's relatively close, we're gonna use about 300 to 400 PIP range from where we're trading at, in this instance here. Now, obviously, you |
| 34 | 00:06:44,220 --> 00:06:52,140 | can see time of this recording prices already down here. But again, I'm going to count you to go back to the recording and you'll know by watching it that we |
| 35 | 00:06:52,140 --> 00:07:08,610 | call this market going lower here, okay. So we have this reaction high here. Okay, swing high. Now what I'm noting again, so you don't lose, lose yourself |
| 36 | 00:07:08,610 --> 00:07:24,240 | amongst my banter here. I'm looking at times where candles have to hire candles on both sides. Okay? Not to hire on each side. But to hire candles on one side. |
| 37 | 00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:32,730 | In other words, you have a candle with a higher low on the left and a higher low on the right. Okay, and I'm finding this probably is probably confusing, because |
| 38 | 00:07:32,730 --> 00:07:40,680 | it's not what I'm showing you here, but this is a Sunday candle. So you got to take that in consideration, blend that into this Monday. So you do have the |
| 39 | 00:07:40,740 --> 00:07:47,130 | swing low here, basing this Monday candle, and this Thursday candle here. |
| 40 | 00:07:47,220 --> 00:08:07,950 | And this is a Friday candle. So you have that swing low. Okay, so we'll have that noted. Okay, and we're going to use this high here. Okay, and you see this |
| 41 | 00:08:07,950 --> 00:08:17,820 | one here. Now, I realize you're probably starting to think well wait, this is getting really busy here. Okay, but what I want to draw your attention to is the |
| 42 | 00:08:17,820 --> 00:08:28,560 | fact that we do have these levels, turning the market on a daily timeframe. Okay, so if the market made its daily, higher low there, okay. It's significant. |
| 43 | 00:08:28,950 --> 00:08:40,470 | Okay. Now, this is a moment where you pull out your pad. Major reaction levels, okay. occur around annual highs and lows I mean, yearly, high and low. |
| 44 | 00:08:41,370 --> 00:08:50,790 | Quarterly, your high and low in other words every three months, okay, for instance, January, February, March in that block of time calendar basis, okay. |
| 45 | 00:08:50,790 --> 00:08:59,400 | Find the highest highest highs, I'm sorry, the highest high and lowest low in that timeframe. Do the same thing for the second quarter. Okay, that being |
| 46 | 00:09:00,870 --> 00:09:10,950 | April, May, June, and then July, August, September, October, November, December. So there's, there's four quarters and blocks of three. Okay, because there's a |
| 47 | 00:09:10,950 --> 00:09:19,110 | quarterly shuffle that goes on Okay, portfolio dressing and such. And you'll be able to see significant highs and lows and we're not going to do that here. It's |
| 48 | 00:09:19,470 --> 00:09:27,870 | this series is meant for you to get your sleeves rolled up and do some homework on your own. Okay, and you're going to learn by doing it. Okay, I'm leading you |
| 49 | 00:09:27,870 --> 00:09:38,070 | to the water but it's up to you to drink, okay. You also have monthly highs and lows. Those are key, important reactionary levels. Okay. And then you have |
| 50 | 00:09:38,070 --> 00:09:46,920 | weekly highs and lows and you have intro week highs and lows. Okay, so now once we get to like Wednesday, wherever the highest time and lows low was at that |
| 51 | 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:57,540 | time, are influential. Okay. And then you have your standard daily highs and lows. Okay. And here is one of the gold nuggets that you're going to get okay. |
| 52 | 00:09:58,230 --> 00:10:08,970 | Whenever you see a swing high, okay, a swing high like this, okay, we have a candle here with a lower high candle on the right of it and a lower high candle |
| 53 | 00:10:08,970 --> 00:10:18,450 | on the left of it. Okay, this pattern is very, very strong. And the reason why it's so strong is because you have to take a couple elements out of that |
| 54 | 00:10:18,570 --> 00:10:29,250 | pattern. Okay, and we're gonna start with the first candle here, this candle on the left of the swing high, okay, you want to note the high, the open the low |
| 55 | 00:10:29,250 --> 00:10:37,230 | and the close on this candle, you want to do the same thing for the highest candle in the three bar pattern. And you want to do the same thing to open high |
| 56 | 00:10:37,230 --> 00:10:52,290 | low close values on that same basis. Okay. And whenever you see a swing high on your daily timeframe, you really, really want to have those data points. Now, |
| 57 | 00:10:52,290 --> 00:11:01,800 | essentially, we have the high here with this horizontal line, and we essentially have the open, we're here with this line. Okay, but it was based on this candle |
| 58 | 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:17,160 | here. Now we have to have the low. I'm sorry, the low here and noted as well. Okay, you can see that happening right there. Now I'm balling it true, but we |
| 59 | 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:24,240 | can go down and doctored up when we get down to the lower timeframes. But here's what I want, just just by clicking that, like I did here, I want you to take a |
| 60 | 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:33,750 | look at what happened over here. And these candles, see the bodies they were having difficulty closing and opening far beyond that level. Okay, something |
| 61 | 00:11:33,810 --> 00:11:44,130 | about these levels, okay, causes the marketplace to turn. Okay, we're going to talk more specifically about that phenomenon. Okay, and another Smart Money |
| 62 | 00:11:44,130 --> 00:11:56,070 | concept applied to where markets tend to, to blast off and have you trade opportunity presented to you and you can see things in advance, based on what |
| 63 | 00:11:56,070 --> 00:12:06,480 | I'm going to share in this episode here. But I want to show you how sensitive these levels are. And then obviously, because we have this market open on this |
| 64 | 00:12:06,510 --> 00:12:14,130 | candle here, if you go over here, look with a debt and you have a bounce right off of that, obviously, we can see that the close of that candle and that swing |
| 65 | 00:12:14,130 --> 00:12:24,510 | high, we were opening essentially near that same point went lower. The candle here was unable to make much move higher, we fell short of it here. The body of |
| 66 | 00:12:24,510 --> 00:12:35,970 | the candle here is well. Okay, so there's a lot of insight that is gleaned by doing these exercises, but it's also a daily procedure. |
| 67 | 00:12:36,150 --> 00:12:46,740 | Okay, but here's the cool thing. Once you have these levels noted, okay, these, when they're when they're, a lot of them, like you see here, this is when you |
| 68 | 00:12:46,740 --> 00:12:56,070 | take your data, and you write it down on your pad, okay, and that way, when price trades to these levels, okay, or approaches these levels, you'll have that |
| 69 | 00:12:56,070 --> 00:13:04,140 | in mind, okay, look is is a reactionary level based on a daily timeframe. So that way, you don't have to have all these lines on your chart. Okay? So we're |
| 70 | 00:13:04,140 --> 00:13:16,350 | going to do is want to take our chart, and we're going to drill down to a four hour basis, okay. And we're going to be just simply looking at the, the market |
| 71 | 00:13:17,670 --> 00:13:22,200 | from the standpoint of all these 23rd. |
| 72 | 00:13:32,820 --> 00:13:41,700 | Okay, and what to do was, I've just moved the fixed chart position, and just a little difficult to see here. But I will show you all that when I talk about |
| 73 | 00:13:41,700 --> 00:13:55,020 | setting up templates for Mt. Four and how you can maneuver around. So we're gonna go into a four hour chart. Okay, and here we are, we're essentially, with |
| 74 | 00:13:55,020 --> 00:14:06,600 | the same levels noted, we move down into a four hour basis. Okay, and what I'm just gonna do is I'm gonna scrub forward a little bit. Okay, and read about |
| 75 | 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:15,570 | here's where we're talking about how the market was poised to trade lower. And I promise I'll get to the point of which we're going to explain why he was going |
| 76 | 00:14:15,570 --> 00:14:26,790 | to go lower. But for now, I just want to just illustrate how the market eventually traded with these levels. Okay, now, these levels were based on key |
| 77 | 00:14:27,330 --> 00:14:36,540 | reaction levels on a daily timeframe. Before the facts in other words, we're going to basically establish a point of which will delineate that with a |
| 78 | 00:14:36,540 --> 00:14:47,280 | vertical line here. We'll say, beginning here, you know, we were expecting to go lower, and we're gonna start watching and it's going to study how price reacted |
| 79 | 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:59,280 | to these levels going forward. Okay. And really, what you're doing is you're, you're looking at how price moved, reacted, traded down to and up to resistance |
| 80 | 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:10,530 | and support How price worked specific levels, broke down, found support at it and then broke lower and moved around and gyrated. Okay, now, these levels are |
| 81 | 00:15:10,530 --> 00:15:19,230 | just simply established off of daily timeframe. Now, when you move to a four hour, okay, like we learned in the previous two episodes, when you break your |
| 82 | 00:15:19,230 --> 00:15:27,930 | market down from a daily to a four hour, the four hour is going to have more dynamic support resistance levels that were not as clearly discernible as we're |
| 83 | 00:15:27,930 --> 00:15:39,480 | on a daily chart, okay, so this level here, okay, you would have on your chart as well, and you can see the price reactions from theirs as well and you have |
| 84 | 00:15:39,630 --> 00:15:53,370 | this swing low. One could have that on your chart as well. And you can see how price reacted around that as well. Okay, and now, what we're gonna do is we're |
| 85 | 00:15:53,370 --> 00:15:59,760 | going to move to a 15 minute basis, and we're going to look at last week's trading. |
| 86 | 00:16:21,030 --> 00:16:29,160 | Okay, this is last week trading the Euro USD is as a 15 minute timeframe that we're going to do is want to put the vertical lines in delineating the actual |
| 87 | 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:40,860 | days, you have Monday's trading here. Tuesday's trading here, Wednesday, Thursday, and then Friday down here. Now we again, we're calling the market |
| 88 | 00:16:40,860 --> 00:16:54,600 | lower. And you can see the market did in fact trade lower. We're going to be looking at how price reacted intra week, okay, but we're going to talk about |
| 89 | 00:16:55,200 --> 00:17:01,470 | some things that haven't really been touched on if you've been following for a while in great detail. |
| 90 | 00:17:14,099 --> 00:17:24,509 | Okay, so now what we're gonna do is we're gonna be discussing the have a market itself, we're gonna zoom out just one more tap, just you can get a feel for what |
| 91 | 00:17:24,509 --> 00:17:33,509 | has happened. The market traded lower up in these levels here, we we were calling it lower and broke down rather aggressively. Okay, so you can see much |
| 92 | 00:17:33,509 --> 00:17:48,149 | more dynamic view of how price had respected the support resistance lines that we arrived that on a daily timeframe. Okay, so now, obviously, we can see in |
| 93 | 00:17:48,149 --> 00:17:56,999 | hindsight that it caused the market to turn at resistance and support and once support was broken events to trade back to it found as resistance. Okay, we |
| 94 | 00:17:56,999 --> 00:18:06,449 | understand those central tenets to the marketplace and how technical analysis is generally perceived and or viewed in hindsight basis. Okay, but how do we use |
| 95 | 00:18:06,449 --> 00:18:17,909 | these levels going forward? Okay, well, number one, unless you have these types of price points, okay, or support resistance levels, on a higher timeframe, |
| 96 | 00:18:18,269 --> 00:18:27,779 | there's absolutely zero reason to expect a trade to form. Okay, again, here's one of those night notepad moments, okay, write this down and underline it |
| 97 | 00:18:27,989 --> 00:18:40,889 | several times, you do not look for a trade or trading pattern when your intraday charts unless it is trading at a higher time frame support resistance level, |
| 98 | 00:18:41,039 --> 00:18:52,409 | okay, or at a higher time frame reaction level. That means the trade has to be formulated and framed around a level that you had already arrived at, from the |
| 99 | 00:18:52,409 --> 00:19:02,669 | daily and or for a timeframe. Okay, now, here's a question for you. And you already know the answer to this, I'm sure. So again, I'm not trying to browbeat |
| 100 | 00:19:02,669 --> 00:19:09,809 | anyone, but I'm telling you, I've done the same stuff. So hopefully, you'll learn from it like I did. And you'll you'll, you'll stop the bleeding and you'll |
| 101 | 00:19:09,809 --> 00:19:22,019 | start moving towards consistency. So now looking at your own personal trading, how many times daily, weekly, in the last few months or so, how many times have |
| 102 | 00:19:22,019 --> 00:19:32,279 | you looked at a five minute chart or a one minute chart or maybe, you know, an hourly chart, looking for a pattern, a price pattern and then trying to chase |
| 103 | 00:19:32,279 --> 00:19:41,969 | the market after you see it moving? Because you you didn't have the confidence to trust the pattern because there was nothing framing it on. Okay, you just saw |
| 104 | 00:19:41,969 --> 00:19:51,869 | a pattern or similarity of what would be considered a price pattern and then reacted to it after the market started moving. What you felt was a confidence |
| 105 | 00:19:51,869 --> 00:19:59,189 | booster in the favor that you know the favorable direction the pattern was suggesting it would move and then all of a sudden saw that market turn on you. |
| 106 | 00:19:59,219 --> 00:20:09,269 | Even though That suppose that price pattern was there, it eventually turned on you, as it happened to you. I can tell you with Grace's shorty? If it hasn't, if |
| 107 | 00:20:09,269 --> 00:20:21,509 | you don't do these types of things, it surely will price patterns by themselves. You know, all speak harmonically gartley, butterflies, bats, all those patterns, |
| 108 | 00:20:21,539 --> 00:20:33,959 | okay, that you hear bandied about on the internet and or YouTube educational series or reviews or some quote unquote previews, they may or may not be |
| 109 | 00:20:34,049 --> 00:20:44,999 | profitable. But if you don't have that pattern framed around a real reaction level, okay. And again, we've talked about why the market reacts like it does. |
| 110 | 00:20:44,999 --> 00:20:56,579 | And when you see market moves that are dynamic, okay, because it's the institutional sponsorship that takes the market up or down, okay, retail traders |
| 111 | 00:20:56,579 --> 00:21:05,939 | are not going to do anything to this marketplace. We are participants that are hopefully, like the fleas on the dog. Okay, we're on for the ride once in a |
| 112 | 00:21:05,939 --> 00:21:17,789 | while we get a bite, okay. But if we don't watch it, the dog will scratches right off. So we are hopefully positioning ourselves at a time and place really |
| 113 | 00:21:17,789 --> 00:21:32,129 | in terms of price, where the market is highly sensitive to market reactions on the higher level trading entities like the banks, large funds, institutions, if |
| 114 | 00:21:32,129 --> 00:21:42,809 | those traders are participating in the marketplace at that time frame, okay, that time of day at that date. Okay, at that price level, you are in a much |
| 115 | 00:21:42,839 --> 00:21:51,389 | better position, technically speaking as a trader, than those that just simply go out and say, Well, you know, the markets have gone up for the last six days, |
| 116 | 00:21:51,389 --> 00:21:57,719 | so it's probably gonna keep going up. Let me just go in here and buy it today. Okay, so I can tell you, I know a lot of people that send me emails and again, |
| 117 | 00:21:57,719 --> 00:22:05,009 | please, I'm only using this as an example. So don't let this be an impediment to you ever send me emails or questions or comments or anything like that. But, you |
| 118 | 00:22:05,009 --> 00:22:13,349 | know, folks, do these types of things. And here's this, here's another, you know, disclosure, I did that same stuff, guys. |
| 119 | 00:22:13,410 --> 00:22:22,080 | Okay, when I traded commodities, if the market was going screaming up, okay, I would be watching it, do it. In the middle of the summertime during drought |
| 120 | 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:29,490 | season, if the wheat market was going straight up, it could be up for 19 days. And I'm like, wow, it's been going on, let me just get in there and buy that, |
| 121 | 00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:40,050 | okay. And sometimes I was lucky. And then other times, I was not, okay, because I was chasing the market. By having these levels pre determined, based on the |
| 122 | 00:22:40,050 --> 00:22:49,830 | higher time frame, you can sit on your hands and exercise that dreaded word patience. Okay, because a lot of times I, you know, I talked about that. And I |
| 123 | 00:22:49,830 --> 00:22:59,250 | stressed the importance of having patience, and submitting to time, okay, because if we're using these daily and four hour charts, it's going to take time |
| 124 | 00:22:59,250 --> 00:23:07,140 | for price to get to these particular price levels. Now, why am I teaching this timeframe? Well, because most of you can't sit in front of your computers all |
| 125 | 00:23:07,140 --> 00:23:14,790 | day long, and trade for a living. As much as you aspire to do that. Y'all have, what responsibilities, you have mortgage payments, you have children, you have |
| 126 | 00:23:14,790 --> 00:23:24,180 | spouses to take care of, if your wives you have your husbands to deal with. So the bottom line is, is you have a lot of responsibilities and very little time |
| 127 | 00:23:24,180 --> 00:23:32,100 | on your hands to be able to apply to analysis. Now Sure, you can go back and look at hindsight, and study intraday action like that. And there's certainly |
| 128 | 00:23:32,100 --> 00:23:42,150 | nothing wrong with that. But for the most part, by far and large majority of you are watching this all have nine to five or similar that keeps you from having |
| 129 | 00:23:42,180 --> 00:23:51,270 | the time to sit in front of the charts and trade intraday. So, again, I'm teaching this timeframe because it will allow those that have jobs, to formulate |
| 130 | 00:23:51,270 --> 00:24:01,620 | trading ideas on your demo account to build confidence and understanding in technical analysis, and still possibly take part of profitable swings that |
| 131 | 00:24:01,830 --> 00:24:12,030 | market entities push price up or down based on these higher level support resistance levels. Now, again, we have a snapshot in front of us here. This is |
| 132 | 00:24:12,030 --> 00:24:23,340 | essentially Oh, two and a half weeks worth of price data. But again, these levels were noted prior to these price points up here. Okay, we were calling the |
| 133 | 00:24:23,340 --> 00:24:33,750 | market lower up in here and the market slid lower okay to the tune of about what is that let's get a good good feel for what that price level is we'll get about |
| 134 | 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:49,170 | middle of that consolidation, and the lowest low on last Friday comes in around 285 pips or so. Not bad, not bad for a future perspective in terms of analysis, |
| 135 | 00:24:49,170 --> 00:24:59,190 | a lot of my haters that really are new interested in learning this stuff, they just want to derail on the track. folks that are out here doing this stuff. for |
| 136 | 00:24:59,190 --> 00:25:09,390 | free. I don't sell my And I just do it as a, as a hobby, as you can see, it's been a delay in my release of this episode. And that's another reason why I'll |
| 137 | 00:25:09,390 --> 00:25:18,660 | never sell anything because I really have a life, and I'm not gonna subject you guys to any kind of payment, okay, and, you know, selling things because I don't |
| 138 | 00:25:18,660 --> 00:25:27,900 | want, I don't want the hassle to, I don't need your money. And three, I can't promise you, I'm going to have the free time to consistently give you what you |
| 139 | 00:25:27,900 --> 00:25:36,870 | would reasonably expect on a paid service. So there are guys out there that have you know, services, and some of them probably shouldn't be doing it, then you |
| 140 | 00:25:36,870 --> 00:25:47,100 | have others out there that you know, are doing it, and maybe there are worthwhile and they have, you know, assistance to new traders. It's not up to |
| 141 | 00:25:47,100 --> 00:25:54,720 | me, to judge those individuals, I can just tell you that me personally, in the form of a mentor, you get what you get when you get it. I mean, I don't mean to |
| 142 | 00:25:54,720 --> 00:26:09,330 | be ignorant about it. But you know, like I said, I do have a job of being a father, husband, and my life is interesting. And it many times pulls me in |
| 143 | 00:26:09,330 --> 00:26:17,250 | directions I really didn't plan on from the time I lay my head down to tunnel wake up, a lot of things can happen in the ICT world. And you know, I could be |
| 144 | 00:26:17,250 --> 00:26:27,480 | involved in things that I hadn't planned on. And that's what this market can provide for you a lot of freedom to do that very thing. I'm not locked into |
| 145 | 00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:38,970 | having to do any one thing or another. The freedom to be able to say, you know what, I've reached my goal, I don't ever have to go to my employment place |
| 146 | 00:26:38,970 --> 00:26:48,960 | anymore. Okay, whatever that is, you plug that in, if you're new, if you work at a, an industrial job, or if you're a truck driver, or if you're a mechanic or if |
| 147 | 00:26:48,960 --> 00:27:01,290 | you're a doctor and nurse, the ice cream shop guy, how about that house. Bottom line is you have to get to that point, and it doesn't happen overnight. So use |
| 148 | 00:27:01,290 --> 00:27:02,400 | these tools, |
| 149 | 00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:12,960 | okay, to help frame your inner trader that will eventually come to fruition. After you gain a level of confidence in yourself, firstly, that you can stick to |
| 150 | 00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:23,940 | the procedures, then trust the tools. And then when those two come together, then you find a level of consistency at your time of choosing not when I say or |
| 151 | 00:27:23,940 --> 00:27:33,570 | another mentor. And whatever, you know, book that you buy suggests that you should go to live trading or full time trading. You'll know it when you know. |
| 152 | 00:27:33,990 --> 00:27:44,040 | Okay, believe me you'll if you feel like you're Russian you probably are so don't don't get in a race to try to say well, I'm quitting my job. Okay. I'm |
| 153 | 00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:53,040 | Tony out these little notes I have next to my keyboard here because I've been getting email. So I'm kind of tossing these little nuggets out in the midst of |
| 154 | 00:27:53,040 --> 00:28:03,270 | having these recording. So hopefully I'm answering your your inquiries. So now by looking at these two and a half weeks or such in price data, we called the |
| 155 | 00:28:03,270 --> 00:28:15,840 | market lower back here. Okay, so how would one reasonably expect to participate in the marketplace, as price moves lower? Number one, we have these price levels |
| 156 | 00:28:15,900 --> 00:28:27,000 | noted. And again, from this point in here, these levels were on the chart, they would be walking forward, you would see price, reacting real time at these price |
| 157 | 00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:35,670 | points. Okay. Again, this is a 15 minute time frame. So you would have smaller dealing rain support resistance levels on these timeframes as well but not as |
| 158 | 00:28:35,700 --> 00:28:44,970 | important as the daily and for our timeframes. Because those are where the large institutional traders are spent spending majority of their time looking for |
| 159 | 00:28:45,330 --> 00:28:57,510 | value. Okay, much we're gonna talk about that. So now, again, we talked about how In the previous episode that the market tends to make its high or low. In |
| 160 | 00:28:57,510 --> 00:29:04,680 | the first few days of the week, generally about Tuesday's long and open and at the very latest many times you'll find it. Wednesday's London open is like the |
| 161 | 00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:16,500 | last cusp of where the higher low if it's a down week, the high would be formed. But generally between Monday and Tuesday, you see it forming the higher low. And |
| 162 | 00:29:16,620 --> 00:29:25,560 | now with that going forward, okay, you can see that we did have the high form. I think it just went above a few pips, maybe one or two pips here on Wednesday. So |
| 163 | 00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:36,930 | it came true as well here moved lower. Okay. But then we moved into this week here. Okay. It's kind of unique in a sense, because if you've been watching the |
| 164 | 00:29:36,930 --> 00:29:48,390 | news, they've been reading newspapers and such. There's been some saber rattling about the US potentially striking Syria. I'm not going to go on the political |
| 165 | 00:29:48,390 --> 00:30:01,260 | stance on get on my soapbox about what we should or shouldn't do in regards to that, but it has caused a lot of uncertainty in terms of what is going To be the |
| 166 | 00:30:01,260 --> 00:30:11,610 | outcome of all that, okay? And this is really good in a sense, because it gives me an opportunity to plug in something that otherwise if it hadn't hadn't been |
| 167 | 00:30:11,610 --> 00:30:21,060 | happening, I would just be talking about it conceptually. But now we're going to have a real world example of what this implies, when you do your analysis. When |
| 168 | 00:30:21,060 --> 00:30:33,450 | there's uncertainty, okay? When there's uncertainty in the marketplace, or the global economy, you know, arena, the participants get really, really spooked. |
| 169 | 00:30:33,750 --> 00:30:47,850 | Okay, and what will happen is, the large institutional traders, okay, many times will scale back their risk, they'll reduce their position sizes, or their new |
| 170 | 00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:58,080 | trades, maybe they'll they were going to do a large block of orders to be an accumulation of a buy position. Maybe they're still bullish, but because of the |
| 171 | 00:30:58,620 --> 00:31:10,500 | global stance against, you know, this potential strike and the implications that may have on the markets, maybe they have reduced their overall exposure by |
| 172 | 00:31:10,500 --> 00:31:20,580 | saying, well, we're gonna buy it, because we fundamentally, fundamentally think it's going to go higher or lower. Okay, um, they just scale back that, and |
| 173 | 00:31:20,580 --> 00:31:30,090 | that's something that you should do as well. So what do I mean by that? Well, I mean, number one, scale back the level of trading leverage you're using, because |
| 174 | 00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:39,120 | anything can happen in these types of environments, okay. But what will generally you'll see happening is, is there'll be a lot of range bound trading |
| 175 | 00:31:39,150 --> 00:31:52,950 | and spiky consolidation. But there's still opportunity to trade in that environment, you just got to lower your expectation, slow down, in terms of what |
| 176 | 00:31:52,950 --> 00:32:01,920 | you expect to see in terms of time, okay, and expect to spend a whole lot of time in the market moves, okay. Like, for instance, if |
| 177 | 00:32:02,010 --> 00:32:13,170 | one of us a buyer here on Tuesday, you'd have to sit through a long period of time before we got into the New York open, on this day here of the night, |
| 178 | 00:32:13,620 --> 00:32:29,700 | September 4, before the the price new release to the upside. Now, if one was a seller, okay, you'd have to rely more on these resistance levels, okay, and |
| 179 | 00:32:29,700 --> 00:32:42,390 | stick true to trading only at or very close to these levels. Meaning that if the market environment is suggests that it's a lot of uncertainty, okay, there would |
| 180 | 00:32:42,390 --> 00:32:52,350 | be times where maybe the price moved up here off these key resistance level, and traded lower and gave a retracement and maybe I would trade something away from |
| 181 | 00:32:52,350 --> 00:33:05,730 | that level. Okay, I want to own more calmer, global arena, okay, when there wasn't so much uncertainty because of potentially war breaking out in the Middle |
| 182 | 00:33:05,730 --> 00:33:15,210 | East and the implications that has, I would not be willing to trade far away from these levels and continue to move lower, meaning that I would miss these |
| 183 | 00:33:15,210 --> 00:33:23,310 | little small little moves in here because I don't care about trading, I hear in this open space between this level here and this level here. I would be more |
| 184 | 00:33:23,310 --> 00:33:31,860 | inclined to be trading at these levels. Okay. And you can see, when price gets these levels, the reaction to it has, okay, and that's what you want to be |
| 185 | 00:33:31,860 --> 00:33:43,470 | focusing focusing on the the the pact of these higher level timeframes, support resistance levels, and applying that to your trading only trading when it gets |
| 186 | 00:33:43,470 --> 00:33:56,130 | to those particular levels and a confluence of other supporting indicators, whether it be price indicators or economic indicators that come around in terms |
| 187 | 00:33:56,130 --> 00:34:05,610 | of your economic calendar. And hello, have you been looking at that? You should be because those things are very significant in terms of trading. You gotta know |
| 188 | 00:34:05,610 --> 00:34:22,140 | what's coming down the pike guys. So let's go in here and zoom in a little bit and go over what had transpired here. Okay. And we're gonna use Friday, two |
| 189 | 00:34:22,140 --> 00:34:33,180 | Fridays ago. Okay, and we're gonna use this price point here. Okay. We have a price move down smaller retracement, and I'll move down. Okay and then a |
| 190 | 00:34:33,180 --> 00:34:49,860 | retracement. Okay. So we had one leg, two legs and then a retracement. Okay and another retrade to this particular level here at 132 20 level one Monday, okay. |
| 191 | 00:34:50,910 --> 00:35:00,420 | We were still obviously looking for selling scenario because we were expecting lower prices based on a higher time frame idea that we're going to lashed out |
| 192 | 00:35:00,420 --> 00:35:19,080 | here. But we have a range high here, this range low. Okay. I'm going to show you this is the range here from the low to the high of that previous Friday. Okay. |
| 193 | 00:35:19,830 --> 00:35:30,000 | Now why am I using these price points? Okay, well Am I every start a new week, I like to use discernible price swings and this is discernible. It's very clear, |
| 194 | 00:35:30,030 --> 00:35:41,460 | very distinct. Much the same capacity this high down to this low is okay. Now you could have your level from this high to this low. But I'm not expecting much |
| 195 | 00:35:41,460 --> 00:35:49,830 | of a retracement because we're overall expected bearish on higher timeframe. So the likelihood of it three trading all the way up to these levels short could |
| 196 | 00:35:49,860 --> 00:35:58,020 | but I don't expect it. Okay, so I'm looking at price where we moved into this consolidation and we broke down, we're going to come right back to that same |
| 197 | 00:35:58,020 --> 00:36:12,240 | consolidation. Okay. Price comes right up into that 62 level, and then trade it off. Okay. We're going to use this same high and this low here, because this is |
| 198 | 00:36:12,240 --> 00:36:22,860 | a new swing, a price swing from this high to this low. It's a larger, more dominant price swing, whereas this is a small little short term price swing, |
| 199 | 00:36:22,890 --> 00:36:36,750 | then a retracement. This is leg one leg two together. Okay, so here's leg one. And here's leg two. Now, if you look at the high down to that low, formed here |
| 200 | 00:36:36,750 --> 00:36:50,400 | on Tuesday, we have this high and we have this low. See what we have here. Price come right up to that sweet spot. Boom, hit that rate on Friday. I'm sorry |
| 201 | 00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:58,380 | Thursday, and traded lower. Moving into a low on Friday. Okay. So now |
| 202 | 00:37:00,240 --> 00:37:16,260 | what was up here that caused this reaction? Okay. That's one of the assignments I want you to look at, go over your economic calendar, go over your your charts |
| 203 | 00:37:16,260 --> 00:37:34,650 | on a five minute basis, on an hourly basis, four hour and daily. Okay, really hone in on this little area right here. Okay. The breakdown in the fiber, or |
| 204 | 00:37:34,650 --> 00:37:47,850 | your USD as we would commonly hear it referred to as this was the actual high that was formed on the fiber that we traded lower. And right before that price, |
| 205 | 00:37:47,850 --> 00:37:59,820 | hi, Kate, I want you to see something here, see this low? Okay, let's zoom out just one stage. Here's the high. Okay. Here's these lows that we're just talking |
| 206 | 00:37:59,820 --> 00:38:10,410 | about. The market broke those right there. Okay, when we see that, that's generally a sign that this market wants to break down much in the same way you |
| 207 | 00:38:10,410 --> 00:38:21,240 | see it here. Okay, it broke the low here and try to rally up it was a false swing and then gave up to go somewhat lower. Well, we have that same scenario |
| 208 | 00:38:21,240 --> 00:38:38,850 | here. Okay. And the reason why price was expected to break down here is if we go out to a daily chart real quick. See this old set of highs back here, price one |
| 209 | 00:38:38,850 --> 00:38:51,870 | just above that, ran to the 134 50 figure mid figure right here rather and then traded lower. When we had this price pattern here, these are referred to as |
| 210 | 00:38:51,930 --> 00:39:03,990 | railroad tracks. Okay. And I like to see these types of patterns because number one are pretty powerful in terms of prognostication. You see that happen here. |
| 211 | 00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:12,660 | And price gave a very nice retracement here. This is very tradable. Now, obviously, when you contrast it against something like this, where it rallies up |
| 212 | 00:39:12,660 --> 00:39:22,530 | like this where the rally here or the client here, it doesn't look so dynamic. But if you were to look inside that range from this high to this low, we're |
| 213 | 00:39:22,530 --> 00:39:34,020 | looking at 168 pips, would you just throw away the opportunity to make on and 68 pips? Certainly not. Or at least you shouldn't. So again, dealing with these |
| 214 | 00:39:34,020 --> 00:39:43,170 | daily charts, there's a lot of pips there's a lot of potential setups that are available to one, if you understand what you're looking for, okay, because we're |
| 215 | 00:39:43,380 --> 00:39:53,790 | looking at price and an old high here, when prices run up through an old high, but look at look at where the market came from. We come all the way out this low |
| 216 | 00:39:53,790 --> 00:40:05,760 | in the beginning of July, and it was basically one sided market. We very had very little retracements and Skip driving higher and higher and higher. Now, I |
| 217 | 00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:14,490 | got a lot of lines on this chart, but I'm gonna refrain from taking them off because I'm gonna need them in a moment. But we have this rally up makes a swing |
| 218 | 00:40:14,490 --> 00:40:23,940 | high, then we rally up mixamo swing high, and we rally up makes a higher swing high. Okay? Whenever you see the moves like this, keep pushing Higher, higher |
| 219 | 00:40:23,940 --> 00:40:39,660 | heart into an old high. These are areas where heavy distribution is taking place. Now, I learned a pattern called the three Indians pattern, okay. And it's |
| 220 | 00:40:39,660 --> 00:40:50,640 | basically like a three drive pattern where you got one high, higher, high and another high, okay? It's a very common pattern. It's been around forever. And I |
| 221 | 00:40:50,640 --> 00:41:02,700 | can't remember who really originated it. Larry Williams did some discussion on it. But I always revert back to just the street smarts book by Linda and Larry. |
| 222 | 00:41:03,210 --> 00:41:12,390 | And now you can just google them up on the internet, again, books, street smarts. In the pattern here you're seeing is the three Indians pattern. It's a |
| 223 | 00:41:12,390 --> 00:41:21,930 | climax reversal pattern, meaning that the price is driven up to an extreme and generally it's just rate above an old high or into an old high. And then you can |
| 224 | 00:41:21,930 --> 00:41:30,000 | reasonably expect to see price to trade off. Now. I'm not suggesting Please don't take this as this is the high of the euro and it's going to go down to |
| 225 | 00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:38,370 | hell. Okay, that's not what I'm saying here. Okay. What I'm saying is it's given you a tradable reaction, that sizeable Okay, we're going to talk about where we |
| 226 | 00:41:38,370 --> 00:41:47,190 | would be reasonably expected to see this market go lower. Okay, based on this understanding here, but looking at this high here, when we ran through that and |
| 227 | 00:41:47,190 --> 00:41:52,530 | gave up the ghost on that candle right there, that was the defeat sealer for me, |
| 228 | 00:41:52,920 --> 00:42:02,640 | that we're probably looking to see this market blow out and go lower, and then when the next candle here, took out the lows prior to that rally, okay, that |
| 229 | 00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:12,690 | right there is a break in market structure. That right there suggests that this market is now poised to trade lower. So any rallies from this point on should be |
| 230 | 00:42:12,690 --> 00:42:23,490 | suspect in other words you selling you selling as a mode of trading, so don't be buying into an expected to keep going higher. Now, we'll eventually sometimes do |
| 231 | 00:42:23,490 --> 00:42:30,780 | that certainly will. Okay, because I'm not 100%. But my foreign large when you see these types of events happen, it does give you an opportunity to trade |
| 232 | 00:42:30,780 --> 00:42:35,640 | short. Just go back down to a 15 minute timeframe. |
| 233 | 00:42:43,590 --> 00:42:56,310 | Okay, and here's that Hi, here, we were just discussing when it broke down. We see the break below the low prior to that last rally up. Okay, so now here, what |
| 234 | 00:42:56,310 --> 00:43:06,540 | we have is we have the range high to the low once these lows were taken out, we have a shift in market structure. Now what does that mean? Well, it means that |
| 235 | 00:43:07,260 --> 00:43:21,960 | we have a low, too high, a low too high, then we have a lower low prior to that rally. So we have a break in what will be considered market bullishness breaking |
| 236 | 00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:33,330 | down, okay? Again, because I'm not a fan of support resistance, I'm not going to draw. I'm sorry, I shouldn't say very, very large fan of support resistance. I'm |
| 237 | 00:43:33,330 --> 00:43:43,140 | just not a fan of diagonal support resistance in the form of like trend lines. But if one was to draw a trend line like this, okay, one could say okay, well |
| 238 | 00:43:43,140 --> 00:43:50,760 | here we have a price point here we have a price point here. trend line breaks Here comes out retests goes through it just a little bit and falls off. That's |
| 239 | 00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:58,530 | all fine and great. Okay, but I've seen many times where these types of scenarios don't even have any impact whatsoever ends blows on through Okay, so |
| 240 | 00:43:58,530 --> 00:44:06,210 | again, if you trust trend lines go right ahead and use them I'm not trying to disparage those that do on this telling you if you're looking for trend lines |
| 241 | 00:44:06,240 --> 00:44:17,490 | the only diagonal support listens basis with me. You're not going to find it. There's going to be a drought. I don't I don't work with that. So we have this |
| 242 | 00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:31,320 | range here. This high in this low. Okay. And as price rallies on up in here, price goes up to that sweet spot. Okay, here's your 70.5 level unique to ICT. So |
| 243 | 00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:42,000 | here we have price reacting very nicely and coming down. Giving you several opportunities trading off that 62% retracement level see that price is having a |
| 244 | 00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:54,360 | very strong resistance around that price point. Okay. All of a sudden the market breaks down again. Okay, and we start taking out the lows here and this low here |
| 245 | 00:44:54,390 --> 00:45:02,130 | when that thing gives us all you know it's all over wit and you can see that happening here. The market participants drive it lower, and then just didn't |
| 246 | 00:45:02,130 --> 00:45:12,720 | have any momentum whatsoever in terms of trying to come back. And we move lower and lower and lower. So now once we have this break in market structure and |
| 247 | 00:45:13,110 --> 00:45:24,570 | price rallies up here, okay? what we will be doing is looking for areas of resistance or support breaking then turning resistance where we time, shorts. |
| 248 | 00:45:25,020 --> 00:45:39,960 | Okay, we time shorts. Now let's add a couple examples here. But we're going to apply Okay, we're going to apply some parts go back to the vertical lines here, |
| 249 | 00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:50,040 | because we're gonna imply the week phenomenon that we like to look for Tuesday and or Wednesday, from the high of the week. And you see that happening here. |
| 250 | 00:45:50,310 --> 00:46:05,340 | Okay, but as price rallied up, this is a suspect rally. Why? Because we had already broken down based on this loaf, forming lower on these lows here taken |
| 251 | 00:46:05,340 --> 00:46:19,500 | out. And the rally up is suspect when we start to break lower, we had these lows taken out, rallies up. Now we have a new range, we have this high, down to this |
| 252 | 00:46:19,500 --> 00:46:34,380 | low, see that. Now look at what's happening here, prices working within, here's your 79% 70 and a half percent and 62%. All this time price spent in that small |
| 253 | 00:46:34,380 --> 00:46:45,930 | little consolidation, and then price broke down, came back up, broke down, came back up, broke down, came back up broke down. Okay? Again, we're looking at a 15 |
| 254 | 00:46:45,930 --> 00:46:58,560 | minute timeframe. Now, you could frame trades on that. Or if you really want to reduce risk, okay, you could zero in and go lower, do a five minute chart. Okay. |
| 255 | 00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:11,310 | And we're going to do that now we're going to work within the week of the seven. What is that 24th. And the 30 essence, let's go down to a five minute. And this |
| 256 | 00:47:11,310 --> 00:47:20,640 | is where price was consolidating all around that area. And price breaks down here then rallies up. We have hold high here with old high here and old high |
| 257 | 00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:33,960 | here. Watch what we do here. We're going to use this high here. This is seven GMT is essentially the beginning of the European session. And we're going to |
| 258 | 00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:42,000 | pull it down a little low prior to that rally up goes right to the sweet spot. And this candle comes in at 1300 GMT. That's New York open. |
| 259 | 00:47:42,450 --> 00:47:55,830 | Remember, we were talking about how in the previous episodes, where we could see specific price moves unfold in the two largest trading sessions that being one |
| 260 | 00:47:55,830 --> 00:48:06,090 | than open. In New York open those two sessions overlap. But uniformly inside of individual London and New York, there are particular price swings that take |
| 261 | 00:48:06,090 --> 00:48:14,580 | place and we're gonna discuss that later on in this video. But here's an opportunity to one could get short one, trading off of this resistance level |
| 262 | 00:48:14,580 --> 00:48:23,700 | that was noted in advance, trades down off, bounce off this support. Now notice how price sweeps it's the below it a little bit. Okay, and then reacts when it |
| 263 | 00:48:23,700 --> 00:48:36,900 | bounces here. Okay? Not only is it bouncing here to give you a rally to sell into, but if you're a scalper Okay, if you're a scalper see this low here. It |
| 264 | 00:48:36,900 --> 00:48:51,120 | rallies on up. spends a lot of time in here. Okay, let's look at how much of a bounce that took place. We're looking at about 35 pips or so of a bounce. So if |
| 265 | 00:48:51,120 --> 00:49:03,000 | you're a scalper, here's your higher time frame support level. You have an old low back here, this rally and then dips down, okay, it goes back to the same |
| 266 | 00:49:03,000 --> 00:49:15,570 | little consolidation. market participants are going to be really sensitive to this area of interest in terms of price data. When price moves out of a |
| 267 | 00:49:15,570 --> 00:49:23,040 | consolidation and it eventually comes back down to it, it's reasonable to expect another reaction now it doesn't mean it's going to go right to the moon. Okay, |
| 268 | 00:49:23,040 --> 00:49:32,580 | but if you are bearish and if you're a scalper on a short term you could buy into this and if you're really nimble, and I'm not suggesting you try to D, but |
| 269 | 00:49:32,670 --> 00:49:41,610 | one could do what I've done very little of in my trading history, but I knew a few guys that are very nimble like this. They'll buy this then go short on a |
| 270 | 00:49:41,610 --> 00:49:52,020 | reversal and then ride the other way down. I'm not that good. I'm not claiming to be that good, but I have seen it done. Couple years ago, I was on a website |
| 271 | 00:49:52,020 --> 00:50:02,850 | forum and I shared a live example of me doing that very thing and reversed on a diamond Kinda like excited a lot of folks that were actually watching it live. |
| 272 | 00:50:02,850 --> 00:50:13,620 | But I can assure you, that doesn't happen all the time. And I just happen to be lucky on this one few rare instances where witnesses were, were present. So |
| 273 | 00:50:13,620 --> 00:50:24,720 | here's an opportunity to be a seller here. And that was on a Wednesday, okay, and we looking for the market move lower into Friday, because the overall bears |
| 274 | 00:50:24,750 --> 00:50:35,310 | tone sets that that stage up, we have a resistance level here, price is unable to go higher. Okay, trades lower, and it starts to rally up. So what do you |
| 275 | 00:50:35,310 --> 00:50:45,870 | think would be here, if you pull your fib, you got to use this high, not here, use the highest higher round that level. So here's the high. And again, we're |
| 276 | 00:50:45,870 --> 00:50:57,300 | really splitting hairs with this in terms of the five minute chart, but you can see that it does give some quality setups and again, if you look at this, this |
| 277 | 00:50:57,300 --> 00:51:04,350 | is your optimal trade entry. And you'll have to zoom in on your own chart because I'm not going to do that here. I guess if I moved out this way a little |
| 278 | 00:51:04,350 --> 00:51:18,600 | bit, you'll see a little bit better. Yeah, 60 to 70 and a half and 79% is the actual height of the candle. And that happens to be around the asian session. So |
| 279 | 00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:26,340 | you could actually caught very nice move in the asian session which we're not gonna be talking too much about in this video series. really rely more on the |
| 280 | 00:51:26,340 --> 00:51:45,210 | London opening new york open sessions. We have high here it 840 GMT and another high here at 1220. So we have a London open swing high and we have a new york |
| 281 | 00:51:45,210 --> 00:52:00,630 | open swing high and the overall bearishness is again focused on because of higher timeframe. Any rallies you look to sell, say here's a high to a low put |
| 282 | 00:52:00,630 --> 00:52:16,230 | that on that lower belongs and price trades right up into the sweet spot which is confirmed confluence of factors here we have a higher level timeframe support |
| 283 | 00:52:16,230 --> 00:52:27,630 | resistance level, that 132 67 level ish, you can go around that you can round that to 132 70 or 132 60 small round number and not time of day that occurs it's |
| 284 | 00:52:27,630 --> 00:52:36,750 | 1215 and that's the New York open and then price moves lower respectively. Then we have |
| 285 | 00:52:39,630 --> 00:52:51,540 | again price trading at this 130 to 39 Olds called once or not I'm sorry 130 to 440 level one was round to a nice round number. We have this range here trading |
| 286 | 00:52:51,540 --> 00:53:01,650 | off of this resistance down to this resistance and then there's a retracement. Okay and pulling that range |
| 287 | 00:53:09,180 --> 00:53:27,060 | make sure we get our candles. Okay we have in here we have Asia making the high the actual high formed on 130 GMT. This candle here is the 910 GMT it's new I'm |
| 288 | 00:53:27,060 --> 00:53:39,750 | sorry London open price breaks down got a couple different little micro rallies in here and then finally gave up the ghost at 1230 GMT which is New York open |
| 289 | 00:53:40,200 --> 00:53:54,120 | again trading right up into that 132 39 or 132 40 level and then really fell out of bed and again here trading in the same direction intraday we have this |
| 290 | 00:53:54,120 --> 00:54:02,280 | resistance broken I'm sorry support broken now resistance and this small little range if you looked at the high in the low of that you'll get another small |
| 291 | 00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:12,690 | little retracement for a London close continuation pattern going into the low of the day. We have |
| 292 | 00:54:22,380 --> 00:54:38,820 | the high here in Asia previous day's high and low. Okay price comes down rallies up into the 62% retracement level here and it's confirmed by this same 3220 |
| 293 | 00:54:39,420 --> 00:54:53,520 | level which is nice levels 3220 and institutional level we like to watch the 20 levels and an old low okay and on this candle here. That is 1040 GMT and then we |
| 294 | 00:54:53,520 --> 00:55:11,010 | have 945 GMT and we have seven GMT so All during the European and London session we have several opportunities to be seller into old lows broken now resistance |
| 295 | 00:55:11,610 --> 00:55:21,930 | and market moves lower where would be reasonably expected to see reach for this old low again we're looking for support resistance levels the aim and and look |
| 296 | 00:55:21,930 --> 00:55:40,440 | for new targets again same scenario here okay markets moving lower here's the opportunity you could use keying off of that 131 90 level was around that to a |
| 297 | 00:55:41,460 --> 00:55:59,160 | small round number for from this high to that low you'll get a nice retracement okay relative sweet spot and sell off. And here. Same thing good news for |
| 298 | 00:55:59,520 --> 00:56:05,670 | continuation in the same direction intraday. You use the fib on that for the New York open |
| 299 | 00:56:14,310 --> 00:56:26,970 | get up in that sweet spot, and optimal trade entry and trade lower intraday. Now that's if you are a day trader, okay, and there's 45 pips or so laid at your |
| 300 | 00:56:26,970 --> 00:56:40,500 | feet. using that as an example. Eventually, the market bounces and trades up into a previous range. Network, right, we're trading right into these resistance |
| 301 | 00:56:40,500 --> 00:56:57,330 | levels. But see this high here, this low, and here's leg one, and leg to it if we use the high down to that, whoa. Again, we're looking at market swings. The |
| 302 | 00:56:57,330 --> 00:57:04,800 | market trading into the optimal trade entry just fell short of this sweet spot, which actually comes right on top of that 3220 level, which is nice. I like |
| 303 | 00:57:04,800 --> 00:57:15,300 | seeing stuff like that. There's where you got your setup. So I kind of gave you your answer for your homework. Didn't mean to do that. But sometimes that'll |
| 304 | 00:57:15,300 --> 00:57:27,240 | happen guys. And there's your your retracement back into going into Friday. Okay, so that's what has happened since the last time we did our episode two in |
| 305 | 00:57:27,240 --> 00:57:36,900 | the series, and how the reactions and price levels are laid at your feet, they were in advance given to you how to find them. What was needed to trade |
| 306 | 00:57:36,900 --> 00:57:46,740 | direction and how you look for setups. Okay, this is what you do, you go through looking for support resistance levels, and you only take opportunities when |
| 307 | 00:57:46,740 --> 00:57:55,020 | price gets to those levels. And you look for price patterns around that same higher level timeframe support resistance, okay. Notice we did not put any five |
| 308 | 00:57:55,020 --> 00:58:02,040 | minutes where resistance levels, we did not put any 15 minutes support resistance levels, we didn't put an hourly support resistance level, we only use |
| 309 | 00:58:02,040 --> 00:58:08,520 | the daily in the four hour, the higher timeframe. Those are your timeframes where the institutional sponsorship is going to come in. Okay, so hopefully, |
| 310 | 00:58:09,030 --> 00:58:18,750 | this has been insightful to you. Again, apply the tools in a demo account setting and build your confidence and you determine when it's safe for you to |
| 311 | 00:58:18,750 --> 00:58:33,570 | use live funds. Okay, we are looking at a 10 year t note daily chart. Okay, and I'm sure you're probably asking yourself, okay, well, when did we enter the |
| 312 | 00:58:33,570 --> 00:58:46,320 | commodity realm? Well, I started as a commodity trader. And I learned from Larry Williams, one of my first mentors, that the interest rate market was basically |
| 313 | 00:58:46,320 --> 00:58:54,150 | the market that controlled just about every market asset class there is. Interest rates are the driving force, whether you're a stock trader, whether |
| 314 | 00:58:54,150 --> 00:59:04,740 | you're a commodity trader, Currency Trader, oil trader, it doesn't matter what it is, interest rates are the absolute underpinning of market dynamic moves up |
| 315 | 00:59:04,740 --> 00:59:18,510 | or down, it's going to be more or less, it's going to be propelled by the interest rate market. Now, when we look at 1010 year t notes, there's one small |
| 316 | 00:59:18,510 --> 00:59:28,200 | little extra I want to throw in here, I'm not breaking down my entire bond market analysis concept. It would be I could spend eight series times eight |
| 317 | 00:59:28,200 --> 00:59:38,130 | videos I mean 64 videos and still not scratch the surface on the the elements of interest rates and how one could utilize those in in trading. But I'm gonna give |
| 318 | 00:59:38,130 --> 00:59:47,370 | you a real simple basic framework where I'm sure it will take a lot of ambiguity out of the marketplace and for you as an analyst in your trading, and be able to |
| 319 | 00:59:47,370 --> 00:59:55,950 | use it in a real world environment because I'm trying to avoid giving you information overload I'm just giving you small components that will very easily |
| 320 | 00:59:55,950 --> 01:00:06,210 | and neatly fit together and allow you to have a better understanding of the macro economic perspective, which is essential whether you're a short term |
| 321 | 01:00:06,210 --> 01:00:18,300 | trader, swing trader or even a day trader, we're gonna be looking at the interest rate yields. Now these are specifically going to be, you know, the 10 |
| 322 | 01:00:18,300 --> 01:00:29,700 | year mark, now they can be shorter and longer term. But for FX purposes, the 10 year will be sufficient. So let's take a look at a few examples on how we can |
| 323 | 01:00:29,700 --> 01:00:33,180 | draw this information from the internet for free with no cost you. |
| 324 | 01:00:40,560 --> 01:00:52,110 | Okay, guys, we're gonna look at some concepts utilizing the T note 10 year, and we're gonna be looking at some interest rate concepts, I want to give you some |
| 325 | 01:00:52,110 --> 01:01:04,590 | free resources that you can do this width will cost you a dime, except for your internet connection. Alright, just do a Google, go to bar chart. Okay, and |
| 326 | 01:01:04,590 --> 01:01:12,570 | you'll see bar chart.com. Okay, that's what you want, you want to click on that. Okay, when bar chart opens up like this, what you're gonna do is you're gonna |
| 327 | 01:01:12,570 --> 01:01:22,980 | look over here, and it's gonna say, select the commodity, hit that little toggle window down. And you're gonna scroll down to the financial section here, and |
| 328 | 01:01:22,980 --> 01:01:34,980 | you'll see 10 year t note, click on that. And it'll give you a few choices of contract month to choose the highest month here, okay? And this case is |
| 329 | 01:01:34,980 --> 01:01:41,940 | September, okay, when this window opens up, and to go over here to customize chart, click on that. |
| 330 | 01:01:47,160 --> 01:01:54,750 | Okay, and what we're going to do is, is going to scroll down a little bit, and we're going to do some changes to this. And what we want to do is, is you want |
| 331 | 01:01:54,750 --> 01:02:10,620 | to be looking at daily nearest, click on that. And the reason why we want that is because it's going to show a continuous non break in, in the contract. As you |
| 332 | 01:02:10,620 --> 01:02:23,100 | can see here, if I scroll up, you'll see these little spots on the chart here. Okay? You'll see an absence of that by using that type of chart. And we're going |
| 333 | 01:02:23,100 --> 01:02:36,180 | to go to a candlestick, right to tick all the volume off. It's not essential for that here. Okay, and we want to see at least a year's worth. And we're gonna |
| 334 | 01:02:36,180 --> 01:02:55,710 | click draw. Okay, and what we have here is a daily chart of the 10 year Tina. Okay. And what I want to show you is there are means of discerning where the |
| 335 | 01:02:55,710 --> 01:03:08,580 | higher level tide, okay? Okay, and think in terms of your salmon. Okay. Generally, as a new trader, your salmon, you, you want to swim against the |
| 336 | 01:03:08,580 --> 01:03:18,870 | current because if the market is going down, okay, it's probably not going to keep going down, okay? It's going to go up eventually, things you chant tend to |
| 337 | 01:03:18,870 --> 01:03:27,720 | be contrarian as a new trader. So you want to fight against that tide? Well, I can tell you, as a salmon, you the outcome of that is they have fun when you get |
| 338 | 01:03:27,720 --> 01:03:37,500 | to the top, okay? When they're right, and they survive it, but they eventually once that's done, and they they completed their task by getting there, they all |
| 339 | 01:03:37,500 --> 01:03:47,760 | die. A lot of people don't realize that but the salmon dies when it gets there. And so do you want to be the salmon? Okay, do you want to swim with the tide? |
| 340 | 01:03:48,510 --> 01:04:00,360 | Okay, and it's a kind of silly expression or example or analogy, but it really communicates the necessity of doing things the easy way. Okay, don't |
| 341 | 01:04:00,360 --> 01:04:11,190 | overcomplicate, don't overcomplicate things. And the surest way to start that way of thinking as a trader is, where's the money flowing from? Is it flowing |
| 342 | 01:04:11,190 --> 01:04:23,100 | into or out of currencies? Okay. And the essential question is, is how does one arrive at that answer? Well, you have to look at a macro perspective, okay. And |
| 343 | 01:04:23,100 --> 01:04:35,670 | the way we look at it macro perspective is the interest rate market. Now, the interest rate markets are the absolute center focal point of all economic asset |
| 344 | 01:04:35,670 --> 01:04:44,640 | classes, whether it be stocks, commodities, you know, currencies, it doesn't matter. The interest rate markets would drive rates and moves everything around. |
| 345 | 01:04:44,670 --> 01:04:53,970 | You can argue with me all you want, but I'm gonna tell you, that's the case. Okay. So if we understand the interest rate market, we have everything laid at |
| 346 | 01:04:53,970 --> 01:05:05,910 | our feet. We have the keys to everything you would ever want. Okay, the kingdom, okay, so if you understand this, you understand everything you'll need to know |
| 347 | 01:05:05,910 --> 01:05:15,690 | on a higher timeframe premise. Okay? So now, I'm not going to go into all of my bond work. Okay, so we're just going to look at just the 10 year t note that's |
| 348 | 01:05:15,690 --> 01:05:25,980 | going to be sufficient for this teaching series. But I promise you, there are so many levels deeper that you can go into. And it's really not taught anywhere on |
| 349 | 01:05:25,980 --> 01:05:35,760 | the internet. My bond work is absolutely unique. And I'm going to blow my horn, there's nothing like it out there. So I've given a few little things about it in |
| 350 | 01:05:35,760 --> 01:05:45,540 | the past, but I mean, there's so much more to it that helps discern what the interest of microbes are doing on an intraday basis on a week to week basis on a |
| 351 | 01:05:45,540 --> 01:05:57,390 | daily if it's going to be up or down day. There's ways of looking at that seasonally and manage this is crazy, how you rhythmic this interest rate market |
| 352 | 01:05:57,420 --> 01:06:12,270 | is. Now with that understanding, okay, if we look at a 10 year t note market, this is a chart of a daily futures contract of the 10 year t note. If we see |
| 353 | 01:06:12,270 --> 01:06:23,730 | price, in this case, trade lower here. Okay. What is that telling us? Well, there is an inverse relationship between the futures contract and the actual |
| 354 | 01:06:23,730 --> 01:06:38,910 | bond yield. Okay, the yield at the 10 year note is yielding is actually in this case here, it's going up. Okay, when the T note futures contract is rallying as |
| 355 | 01:06:38,910 --> 01:06:46,860 | it does here, the yield would be declining. Vice versa, when we see the futures contract for the 10 year note |
| 356 | 01:06:47,280 --> 01:07:00,300 | trading lower, that means that the yield is going higher. When the tenure tree, Tino is trading higher here, that means the bond yield for that 10 year note is |
| 357 | 01:07:00,300 --> 01:07:12,210 | going lower, then we have a drop, lower and sustain move lower, that means there's a stain move higher in the bond yield. Now that's all fine and great. |
| 358 | 01:07:12,240 --> 01:07:22,830 | But what does that really mean? Well, it means this if you want to be a buyer of currencies, and we're going to stick to our equation of being the fiber or your |
| 359 | 01:07:22,890 --> 01:07:33,240 | listing, okay, that's it this teaching series is focused on, it's really goes along with the other majors too, but we're just going to use the euro. If the 10 |
| 360 | 01:07:33,240 --> 01:07:45,060 | year t note is trading lower, like this, that means the bond yield is going higher currencies are going to be chasing higher yield. So what does that mean? |
| 361 | 01:07:45,120 --> 01:07:53,460 | As the yields go up, as we're gonna see another chart and how you can get that information as well, as the yields are going higher, the currencies are going to |
| 362 | 01:07:53,460 --> 01:08:04,200 | chase that, okay, and that means they're gonna chase yield. What does that mean? That means while the 10 year note is trading lower, you want to be a buyer of |
| 363 | 01:08:04,200 --> 01:08:22,440 | currencies. Okay, now, take a big step back now, go back to this price action here. If we see price, trade lower, and then rally up into a level of old |
| 364 | 01:08:23,100 --> 01:08:32,310 | support broken here is resistance keep on going over here. Now this is now resistance, right? If you look at the high down to the low, we've essentially |
| 365 | 01:08:32,310 --> 01:08:40,410 | retrace back to what would be considered a deep enough optimal trade entry. I'm not going to put the fib on here, you can do that. You have to subscribe. I'm |
| 366 | 01:08:40,410 --> 01:08:49,890 | not going to key in my my information for bar chart Comm. But you can set up an account with this this website, it's free, absolutely free does not do anything, |
| 367 | 01:08:50,220 --> 01:09:01,020 | but require you to have a email address. Okay. And my advice is to create an online email address that you use for all of your, your trading related things. |
| 368 | 01:09:01,290 --> 01:09:09,030 | And that way, everything that gets spammed because you eventually will get spammed, I'm going to tell you that I have gotten I shouldn't say I've gotten |
| 369 | 01:09:09,030 --> 01:09:19,800 | I've received rather some spam ever since I've signed up to this service, but if that's the small consolation, and in terms of accessing free commodity charts |
| 370 | 01:09:19,800 --> 01:09:31,710 | that I like, this is certainly one way of doing it. So I don't work with the email address, you know, ICT at industrial trade comm or my inner circle trader |
| 371 | 01:09:31,740 --> 01:09:45,300 | gmail account. I use the completely alien means of signing on to this, this website and a few other ones that I like to use. But as price rate rallies up |
| 372 | 01:09:45,300 --> 01:09:54,810 | into this area here, we have an old level of resistance, which is support here. Okay, we could expect to see prices trade lower. Now what if we could have an X |
| 373 | 01:09:54,810 --> 01:10:04,590 | ray view? Okay, imagine if you had an X ray machine or X ray memory A kid and maybe he is in the States. No, this grown up his kid, they had these little |
| 374 | 01:10:04,590 --> 01:10:13,080 | things in the back of the comic book where it had X ray glasses, okay. And of course, I was a sucker and I spent my dollar 25 allowance and sent it in here. |
| 375 | 01:10:13,350 --> 01:10:21,060 | And I bought myself a pair of them. And when I opened it up, it was ridiculous. It was just an optical illusion, it gives you the impression you're seeing, you |
| 376 | 01:10:21,060 --> 01:10:33,480 | know, an X ray view. But there is a way of looking at the market on interest rates. Okay, as you can see where the tide is changing and turning. Now we're |
| 377 | 01:10:33,480 --> 01:10:54,360 | going to come back to this chart, but for another free resource, we're going to create another tab. Okay, and we're going to go to do a 10 year bond. Yield |
| 378 | 01:10:55,080 --> 01:11:03,150 | chart. Okay, when you click on that, you're gonna again, look for in the list. |
| 379 | 01:11:09,300 --> 01:11:13,410 | Us generic government 10 year yield analysis. |
| 380 | 01:11:20,340 --> 01:11:28,710 | Okay, let me see that is going to scroll down a little bit. You want to go and go to your chart here, not a snapshot, you want to go to chart. |
| 381 | 01:11:38,550 --> 01:11:55,440 | Okay, and just do a year. Okay, what we have here is the fluctuations of the actual yield. Okay, out the 10 year Treasury market. Now watch what happens. |
| 382 | 01:11:55,980 --> 01:12:09,510 | Let's go back to that 10 year, Tino chart. Price made a high here in April, and then going into May, we made a higher high, you see that? Okay, then we made an |
| 383 | 01:12:09,540 --> 01:12:22,560 | ultimate high in the target market and traded lower. Let's go and you see a Converse relationship here in the yield. Okay, here's that low and then a lower, |
| 384 | 01:12:22,710 --> 01:12:34,860 | low in the yield. Again, thinking inversely here, okay, all we did was have a mirror image of that happening here. Okay. And then there's been this rally up |
| 385 | 01:12:34,920 --> 01:12:45,930 | or sustained move in the bond yield. So as the bond market, I'm sorry, the interest rate on the 10 year has been moving up, okay. That means that the |
| 386 | 01:12:46,050 --> 01:12:56,490 | currency markets are going to be looking to rally. Okay, that means they're going to be looking to go higher. So now, as a higher level timeframe, |
| 387 | 01:12:56,550 --> 01:13:06,690 | institutional sponsorship minded trader, it's like, that's what we're trying to cultivate in you right now. You want to be focusing the majority of your |
| 388 | 01:13:06,690 --> 01:13:18,810 | trading, okay, now, here's one of those notepad moments when you want to risk the maximum amount of leverage that your personal risk appetite permits, Okay, |
| 389 | 01:13:19,050 --> 01:13:30,570 | and let's put it out right now do not risk more than the industry standard 2% per trade or maximum account exposure at any one time. Okay. And we're gonna say |
| 390 | 01:13:30,570 --> 01:13:40,440 | that that's the case here. You have the green light, go to be risking 2% or whatever your maximum is in your demo account. Again, because this is for |
| 391 | 01:13:40,680 --> 01:13:47,400 | teaching purposes only and not given you trade advice. You have to discern whether or not this is useful information to you. And if you trade on that with |
| 392 | 01:13:47,400 --> 01:13:57,960 | live funds, it's completely 100%. Your responsibility you collect all the success and accolades. I don't know. Okay, so by looking at this type of |
| 393 | 01:13:57,960 --> 01:14:09,570 | scenario, you could be a maximum risk trader, as a buyer, okay. And what does that also mean for being a short seller, if you're an intraday trader, don't |
| 394 | 01:14:09,570 --> 01:14:18,930 | risk maximum, okay? Because the higher level timeframe tide is poised to be moving higher. Why? Because the yields are going up, and eventually, the |
| 395 | 01:14:18,930 --> 01:14:30,840 | currencies are going to try to snap up and chase after that yield. Okay, so what does that mean? Well, let's look at April and May time period in the euro. |
| 396 | 01:14:36,000 --> 01:14:45,300 | Now, obviously, once you set these, once you open your charts up like this, you're going to be wanting to save them in your Favorites tab. Okay, I have one |
| 397 | 01:14:45,300 --> 01:14:57,120 | for the euro for the bond, and I'm sorry for the British pound for the dollar index and a half one for the 10 year t note. Okay, here is a weekly, because |
| 398 | 01:14:57,120 --> 01:15:18,420 | that's what I save. But we're gonna go down to a daily nearest and support nine months of it. And we're going to draw the chart. Okay, and I left the CO t data |
| 399 | 01:15:18,420 --> 01:15:31,170 | on there. But you guys know me, I'm not about stuff like that I get it off. It'll distract me. case, I just took that off. And now what we're doing is we're |
| 400 | 01:15:31,170 --> 01:15:48,030 | looking at the, here's the APR. And here's may timeframe where the Euro did what we made a low here, came down, made a low, traded higher, came down in July, ran |
| 401 | 01:15:48,030 --> 01:16:00,000 | out the lows here, but this right here was suspect. Why? Because the yields are going higher. Okay, so while we did trade down to these levels, okay, those that |
| 402 | 01:16:00,000 --> 01:16:12,510 | were watching my market reviews, okay, I discussed that the British Pound was poised to move higher as well, all in the same time periods. And that was the |
| 403 | 01:16:12,510 --> 01:16:21,930 | case you can see it happening and voting here. So we saw again, the fiber, your USD pair, traded Higher, higher, higher, higher higher heart and were to trade |
| 404 | 01:16:21,930 --> 01:16:37,020 | to an old high blow it out just a little bit. But eventually now we're trading counter Okay, what the yield markets are suggesting, okay, so we could retrace a |
| 405 | 01:16:37,020 --> 01:16:46,080 | little bit deeper and and try to trade up and fill this area here. But bottom line is, is ultimately these are the types of moves. Okay, you want to be |
| 406 | 01:16:46,080 --> 01:16:57,870 | participating in? Okay, do you see the majority or Lion's portion of the market moves are happening on the higher level timeframe being a buyer. Okay. Very, |
| 407 | 01:16:57,960 --> 01:17:09,600 | very sustained long. Basically, you know, intermediate term swings are on the upside. Okay. Now, granted, there's some profitability to be made going short, |
| 408 | 01:17:09,630 --> 01:17:21,000 | there's nothing arguing against that here. Okay. But we're saying is, is if you want to be directionally poised as a trader and only focusing on institutional |
| 409 | 01:17:21,000 --> 01:17:38,790 | level, direction, okay, this is one way of doing it. Okay. Let's look at the bond yields chart again. Now, there is another opportunity to look behind the |
| 410 | 01:17:38,790 --> 01:17:58,260 | marketplace. Okay, we talked about this x ray view concept. I'm going to go to Google once again. And we're going to go and look at the 10 year German bond |
| 411 | 01:17:59,310 --> 01:18:15,030 | yield. Okay, when you see that you're gonna go to, or we got here, sorry, German government bonds. And then here's it here, when you see gdb r 10, that's the one |
| 412 | 01:18:15,030 --> 01:18:27,930 | we're looking for. Okay, all I'm doing is opening that up. So I can cut and paste the symbol. If you want to have an individual chart like this, obviously, |
| 413 | 01:18:27,930 --> 01:18:47,850 | you can do that. You can see now we have this chart. Now this is showing the 10 year rate of the German bond yield for 10 year rate. If you every time you open |
| 414 | 01:18:47,850 --> 01:19:04,680 | up a new chart, it'll give you your history. Okay? And what I'm only I'm going to copy that cuz I don't trust myself to remember it when I get it on this page. |
| 415 | 01:19:05,790 --> 01:19:19,710 | And you got to type in colon ind. Okay, and then what that does is it compares the two Okay, so we have the Orange is the US 10 year bond yield and you have |
| 416 | 01:19:19,710 --> 01:19:31,650 | the green which is the German or which is closely associated to the fiber, Euro USD. The green is seeing here now here's what I want you to look at. If you look |
| 417 | 01:19:31,650 --> 01:19:32,280 | at this chart, |
| 418 | 01:19:33,900 --> 01:19:45,930 | you'll notice that the orange okay has a low here goes higher and goes lower again but look at the low is higher than it is here. You do not see that |
| 419 | 01:19:45,930 --> 01:20:00,870 | happening with the German. Okay. The German went lower. Okay, and you probably seen it easier if I went to three year. Yes. We went lower on the German higher |
| 420 | 01:20:01,710 --> 01:20:16,950 | in the US. So comparing the lows, respectively. There is a accumulation going on. And it's seen with the US bond yield. Okay. So now if we go back to Google |
| 421 | 01:20:16,950 --> 01:20:39,420 | once again, we do a 10 year UK bond. Yield chart. You mean looking for again, the Bloomberg, and it'll say, government bond 10 year note generic, the G Uk |
| 422 | 01:20:39,720 --> 01:20:55,200 | GU 10 ind. Okay, I'm just going to copy it from here. And then actually open the troughs, you can see it. Now it's in my clipboard, I can just drop it in online |
| 423 | 01:20:55,380 --> 01:21:10,410 | first chart for comparison reasons. And you can see here, change it to a year. You can see the same thing happening here, that the bond market yield turns on |
| 424 | 01:21:10,410 --> 01:21:22,050 | the diamond that same April May time period and starts rallying up. So now if we go back to diff, first chart router, you have the US and German, I'm going to |
| 425 | 01:21:22,050 --> 01:21:41,490 | paste the UK. And by having the three on here, you can see now the orange makes a lower low than we had here. The red makes a higher low, and the green makes a |
| 426 | 01:21:41,490 --> 01:21:55,890 | lower low. So there's a divergence between the three. Okay, and if I go to a six month now you really can't see it's got to be seen on a one year. But my advice |
| 427 | 01:21:55,920 --> 01:22:06,450 | would be is you want to pull this up every month and take a snapshot picture just to create a screen capture. And just keep a record of it and you'll be able |
| 428 | 01:22:06,450 --> 01:22:15,000 | to go back and look at where it diverged. But basically, if you look at every three months or so there is a shift. Okay, there's a shift in these, these |
| 429 | 01:22:15,000 --> 01:22:27,570 | yields. Okay, and you can see the happening here and beginning of the year where the green or the German 10 year did not make a higher high, whereas the British |
| 430 | 01:22:27,900 --> 01:22:38,220 | UK yield did and said that the American so that that was the shift when they started to move lower. Okay, so there's a continuous move up and down, up and |
| 431 | 01:22:38,220 --> 01:22:50,850 | down. But generally around the springtime, there's a sustained move that moves throughout the summer. And it's based on income tax and portfolio dressing that |
| 432 | 01:22:50,850 --> 01:23:03,630 | goes along with your money flow and moving things from one asset class to another. And new overall basic global money system. Okay, and it just repeats |
| 433 | 01:23:03,660 --> 01:23:12,810 | all the time. Just it's it's always there. If you just look at the higher time frame, macro view like this, it's very easy to get in sync with the tide. Now |
| 434 | 01:23:12,810 --> 01:23:17,970 | just for completeness sake. Okay, we're going to look at the British Pound |
| 435 | 01:23:23,220 --> 01:23:44,550 | Okay, and we're just going to show you the effects again, just for completeness sake, not that we're going to utilize in the cable in our examples, but once you |
| 436 | 01:23:44,550 --> 01:24:00,000 | to see that the effects are similar with this pair as well. Okay, here's our April. Now, it actually made a low earlier in the year came off, here's a load |
| 437 | 01:24:00,000 --> 01:24:08,820 | is tradable. Yours may load that was tradable. And we came down this is where I was telling everyone in my market review in advance that this level here was |
| 438 | 01:24:08,820 --> 01:24:21,240 | going to be sensitive, and we would see a buying opportunity. And here we are 900 pips later. We're up here where it was going to go back to an old high. Why |
| 439 | 01:24:21,240 --> 01:24:28,050 | was it rallying up like this and canoeing pushing Higher, higher and higher and higher? Everyone scratching your head saying what's going on? It's because it's |
| 440 | 01:24:28,050 --> 01:24:36,420 | chasing the yields. Okay? And there's been no clear discernible means of reversing in the yield market. So therefore, there's no real clear, discernible |
| 441 | 01:24:36,420 --> 01:24:47,760 | reason to expect this thing to reverse and trade and blow out this low. So I would still be hunting, bullish scenarios longer term, but certainly not |
| 442 | 01:24:47,760 --> 01:25:02,880 | negating any short term intraday, scalping or short term intraday day trading scenarios for being a bear. So now we have covered the 10 years rate times our |
| 443 | 01:25:02,880 --> 01:25:13,980 | 10 year t note, okay, if you do your analysis on this futures market, everything is reverse in terms of the interest rates yield. And if the 10 years going |
| 444 | 01:25:13,980 --> 01:25:24,240 | lower, that means that the bonds are going higher the actual rate yielding the interest rate. And if that's the case, the currency markets are going to chase |
| 445 | 01:25:24,240 --> 01:25:33,180 | yield. Okay, so if the yields are dropping, they're gonna go on file it. And if it's going up, it's gonna be falling as well. Okay. So if that's been Saiful to |
| 446 | 01:25:33,180 --> 01:25:44,040 | you, and obviously, you know, it's gonna take some time in a long time to learn this concept, because it takes a while for these things to cycle through, you |
| 447 | 01:25:44,040 --> 01:25:51,480 | know, on an annual basis and quarterly basis, but I promise you, if you'd spend some time, it'll be absolutely a wealth of insight that is not cleanable |
| 448 | 01:25:51,630 --> 01:26:07,230 | anywhere on the internet. Okay, guys, we are looking at the timeframe section of this episode. Now, obviously, you know, it can be very daunting for you as a |
| 449 | 01:26:07,230 --> 01:26:13,350 | trader, especially if you're new, and you just sit down in front of the charts and you're thinking yourself, you know, what am I supposed to be looking at? Am |
| 450 | 01:26:13,350 --> 01:26:19,950 | I supposed to looking at a five minute chart? How about 30 minute chart? You know, the guy I've read on the forum said, he looks at a two minute chart? And |
| 451 | 01:26:19,950 --> 01:26:25,500 | how about the other guy, he looks at a tick chart? And there's all the guy says he's looking at anything but a weekly chart, you know, so what do you do with |
| 452 | 01:26:25,500 --> 01:26:35,700 | all that? Well, the main thing is, is you have to keep in mind that whatever timeframe you're trading, that's where you work within. Okay, so basically, |
| 453 | 01:26:35,700 --> 01:26:46,020 | knowing your timeframe for your trade is your primary objective. Now, the professional perspective, okay, that the frame of your trade should be at least |
| 454 | 01:26:46,260 --> 01:26:56,640 | built upon three timeframes. And that's what we're teaching here, I'm building a large introduction into basically Alexander elders triple screen approach with |
| 455 | 01:26:56,640 --> 01:27:07,800 | an ICT twist. So first position trader, you will utilize the monthly, the weekly in a daily chart, okay, and you'll be looking for a monthly higher level, |
| 456 | 01:27:08,370 --> 01:27:17,580 | timeframe support resistance levels and reaction levels, and weekly chart as well and then keying off of the daily chart for your trades. Now, in this time |
| 457 | 01:27:17,580 --> 01:27:26,880 | frame, you don't need to be in front of the charts all the time. In fact, you're probably going to be trading very few setups throughout the year. But for those |
| 458 | 01:27:26,880 --> 01:27:39,180 | that have really, very, very few hours of the week, to put into trading, position trades may be the way to go. If you are a little bit more free, and you |
| 459 | 01:27:39,180 --> 01:27:42,390 | have a lot more hours available to you |
| 460 | 01:27:42,780 --> 01:27:53,310 | for intraday, or I'm sorry, intra week trading, swing trades might be up your alley, we use the daily, the four hour in a one hour chart. And that's really |
| 461 | 01:27:53,310 --> 01:28:04,230 | what this series has been framed upon. The daily chart and for our chart really are the institutional frames for your your trade setups and your as your trade |
| 462 | 01:28:04,230 --> 01:28:14,400 | ideas, the one hour basis, you could, you could substitute that with a 15 minute chart, it's really up to you. Okay, there's that's where the level of |
| 463 | 01:28:14,400 --> 01:28:22,830 | flexibility comes in. Now, short term trading, your high high timeframe chart would be the four hour and the one hour be in your mid timeframe and your 15 |
| 464 | 01:28:22,830 --> 01:28:30,660 | minute chart would be your execution timeframe. And obviously, for day trades and scalps, your one hour would be higher, higher timeframe, your 15 minute |
| 465 | 01:28:30,660 --> 01:28:40,710 | would be your mid timeframe, and your five minute chart would be your execution timeframe. Now at any one of these levels of timeframe analysis, you can always |
| 466 | 01:28:40,710 --> 01:28:51,390 | break it down further to the lowest form of charting. In other words, it could go down to a one minute chart. Now I don't use one minute charts, the lowest I |
| 467 | 01:28:51,390 --> 01:29:00,060 | go is five minutes. And that's only when I've really honed into a specific key level. And an either either day trading or scalping, which I don't do very much |
| 468 | 01:29:00,060 --> 01:29:09,660 | of. But most of my trades are day trades, short term, and swing trades. But that's the framework you utilize when you're breaking down the market and how |
| 469 | 01:29:09,660 --> 01:29:18,570 | you digest it. And if you're going to be a specific type of trader, if you work with these three timeframes as good as suggestions, I think they'll work well |
| 470 | 01:29:18,570 --> 01:29:28,380 | with you in terms of your development. Alright, let's talk about cycles in the marketplace. Okay, we're gonna be talking about some smart money concepts and |
| 471 | 01:29:28,410 --> 01:29:39,330 | some of these concepts. Again, go back to Larry Williams. And again, he was one of my first technical analyst, quote, unquote, mentors. And one of the coolest |
| 472 | 01:29:39,330 --> 01:29:49,890 | things I learned and it didn't really hit me until I started trading the bond market the s&p but he taught a concept. It's very, very generic, and it goes |
| 473 | 01:29:49,890 --> 01:29:58,260 | right over your head. If you're a new trader, you're thinking yourself what is stupid or that's not exciting, or it's pretty obvious, but it's amazing how when |
| 474 | 01:29:58,260 --> 01:30:06,900 | you're trading or you're looking for setups you forget This phenomenon. diff concept is basically how the market moves from trading ranges, or |
| 475 | 01:30:06,900 --> 01:30:15,660 | consolidations, to swings or trends. And they move immediately right back into a consolidation. And then, after consolidation, people get sick and tired of the |
| 476 | 01:30:15,660 --> 01:30:24,630 | marketplace, they don't worry about getting in, or they chased the previous move. And that inside the little consolidation, or these rectangles or squares, |
| 477 | 01:30:24,630 --> 01:30:36,180 | if you look at on this chart is seen as an example. That's where dealers and market makers established her positions. Okay. So we do not chase the |
| 478 | 01:30:36,180 --> 01:30:46,980 | marketplace, we do not chase price rallies, we do not chase price declines. We work within these consolidations, smart money accumulates during consolidations, |
| 479 | 01:30:46,980 --> 01:30:54,870 | or when the markets not attractive, okay, and we're going to build on this model as we go through the series, but it's very important for you to start looking at |
| 480 | 01:30:54,870 --> 01:31:04,950 | the charts with this premise in mind, are we consolidating, because that's the next at the precursor is the consolidation, then the next thing to expect would |
| 481 | 01:31:04,950 --> 01:31:13,140 | be that a release that dynamic thrust up or down in price action where everybody gets really excited, you see everybody tweeting about it, you see, every animal |
| 482 | 01:31:13,140 --> 01:31:20,460 | is saying they had it right for you for the last six months. That's really what you're looking for, you want to be in there before everyone else is talking |
| 483 | 01:31:20,460 --> 01:31:21,270 | about, okay? |
| 484 | 01:31:23,760 --> 01:31:36,210 | I'm gonna be talking about the concept of power of three. Okay. And what this is, is basically a understanding of how the market works on a daily range. Okay, |
| 485 | 01:31:36,210 --> 01:31:45,390 | now, we're going to be looking at this bar chart. Okay. Now, obviously, we deal with candlesticks, a lot in my videos, and maybe in your own trading in your |
| 486 | 01:31:45,390 --> 01:31:56,460 | technical analysis. But for a couple minutes, let's spend a few moments talking about how the open high low close bar is beneficial. Now, I'm not going to give |
| 487 | 01:31:56,460 --> 01:32:04,650 | you a full treaties on on this because I have actually a tutorial that I'm releasing that has much more insight that I'm going to go over in that but this |
| 488 | 01:32:04,650 --> 01:32:15,210 | is going to be a brief introduction. The concept briefly is this when the market opens up on a daily range, okay, you as a trader, you want to be participating |
| 489 | 01:32:15,240 --> 01:32:23,640 | in large range moves, okay, like we just discussed in the previous slide, you want to be entering the market, when it's quiet when there's not a whole lot of |
| 490 | 01:32:23,640 --> 01:32:32,340 | activity, or at least when the ranges start to compress. Okay, when the ranges start to get small, people get really bored with that market, they start chasing |
| 491 | 01:32:32,340 --> 01:32:40,080 | the next pair or the next commodity market or whatever it is moving around a lot. That's the one they're gonna move, move to, well, dornod small little |
| 492 | 01:32:40,080 --> 01:32:51,330 | consolidations are small inside days or small, daily ranges, that's when I get really excited because I want to be in there when the markets are getting real |
| 493 | 01:32:51,330 --> 01:32:58,620 | quiet to like a spring winding up tighter and tighter and tighter. And eventually, something whatever the catalyst is, I don't always know or even |
| 494 | 01:32:58,620 --> 01:33:06,180 | care, we really didn't know what it is, makes the market take off. And hopefully in a predetermined direction that I was positioned, then before it takes place. |
| 495 | 01:33:06,630 --> 01:33:15,450 | That's that's essentially what you want to be doing in your trading, whether it be day trading, scalping, or short term trading, or position trading, or swing |
| 496 | 01:33:15,450 --> 01:33:24,360 | trading, whatever style trading it is, you want to be getting in your position during these consolidations and contractions of ranges. Okay, looking at this |
| 497 | 01:33:24,360 --> 01:33:32,940 | example, here on the left hand side of the euro, this daily chart, just stare at this chart for a couple minutes and you'll start seeing the how the ranges get |
| 498 | 01:33:32,940 --> 01:33:41,310 | smaller. Now excluding the smaller itty bitty tiny low ranges, that's actually a Sunday candle. So you gotta gotta like disregard those. But before the ranges |
| 499 | 01:33:41,340 --> 01:33:49,800 | get really, really big, they actually get smaller. Okay, and there's other examples of timeframes and sample sizes you can utilize to better illustrate |
| 500 | 01:33:49,800 --> 01:33:57,450 | this, but I've been looking at this for years. And I can see just simply looking at for a few seconds, I can see the, the pattern itself where the ranges get |
| 501 | 01:33:57,450 --> 01:34:06,870 | smaller than expand, gets smaller, get expand and get smaller. That phenomenon, okay, is one of the truest cycles in the marketplace, and it goes over |
| 502 | 01:34:07,230 --> 01:34:13,530 | everyone's head, they don't pay attention to it. And many times when they hear me talking about it, it's like, well, that's pretty obvious, isn't really |
| 503 | 01:34:13,530 --> 01:34:21,270 | obvious, because the last few times you took a trade maybe there are losers. Did you take in consideration what was going on? Did you chase the market after it |
| 504 | 01:34:21,270 --> 01:34:33,300 | rallied up to 60 pips, okay, but without any kind of retracement or whatever. That's the nature of this cycle, okay. And some of the best money can be made |
| 505 | 01:34:33,300 --> 01:34:44,370 | simply with just applying the consolidations to trend or swing component we just discussed in the previous slide, and adding when the daily ranges themselves get |
| 506 | 01:34:44,370 --> 01:34:55,200 | smaller. So, inside, there's larger consolidations. Okay, we're rectangles were trading range market environment and develops inside that trading range if you |
| 507 | 01:34:55,200 --> 01:35:03,480 | start getting small inside days or small little daily ranges getting smaller than the previous Then you have a really good scenario where it sets up where |
| 508 | 01:35:03,480 --> 01:35:10,680 | there's going to be an explosive move one, day two, day three day up, or down event following directional bias, that was the precursor going into that |
| 509 | 01:35:10,680 --> 01:35:25,080 | condition. But now let's break the daily bar itself down. Looking at the opening, assuming that we were looking for a up day, okay, or we're in a bullish |
| 510 | 01:35:25,110 --> 01:35:34,830 | scenario, generally speaking, if you're trading in an area where it's highly probable for the market to trade up, maybe we're in a consolidation on a daily |
| 511 | 01:35:34,830 --> 01:35:45,480 | chart, or four hour and the range of start contracting, okay. One large range days, this is a notepad moment and get this written down in your notepad, on |
| 512 | 01:35:45,480 --> 01:35:57,090 | large range days, the open tends to be at the opposite extreme of the daily range, opposed to the close. As you can see, in this example, obviously, this is |
| 513 | 01:35:57,090 --> 01:36:08,100 | an illustrative example I drew with the computer, but it's kind of communicate the basic premise, the open generally is on an update of a large range with an |
| 514 | 01:36:08,130 --> 01:36:21,780 | update bias. And a closed typically sees the open at the low of the day, or near the low with the close at or very near the high today. Okay. Now, look at the |
| 515 | 01:36:21,780 --> 01:36:24,420 | example for a moment, to the left. |
| 516 | 01:36:35,880 --> 01:36:48,030 | Notice how many, again, this is a daily chart of the euro, notice how many times that open isn't the opposite extreme of the daily bar, where the closes, okay? |
| 517 | 01:36:48,510 --> 01:36:58,830 | there's enormous amounts of opportunity within the daily range. And that is what you should be looking for. You want to be trading at the very minimum in the |
| 518 | 01:36:58,830 --> 01:37:09,540 | directional bias of the daily range. Okay. We talked about the notion of having the higher low form in the early part of the week. Okay, so that same principle |
| 519 | 01:37:09,540 --> 01:37:20,280 | applies here, just on a daily chart. Okay. So now what this means is, if you're bullish, you want to be looking at the opening price. And looking at that as |
| 520 | 01:37:20,280 --> 01:37:31,980 | your filter, so you want to be buying not very much above it, if at all, really, and certainly below it, okay, because what you'll learn is, the opening price, |
| 521 | 01:37:32,430 --> 01:37:43,290 | very rarely works both sides, up or down before going up, want to update not words, price does not spend a whole lot of time monkeying around with the |
| 522 | 01:37:43,290 --> 01:37:51,930 | opening price. If it goes down, it's only going down briefly for a very short distance, maybe reached blow at some stops, maybe retest and old consolidation, |
| 523 | 01:37:52,230 --> 01:38:00,540 | dip into an old block of orders for institutional purposes, and then shoot straight up and continuously work one side of the market all the way through the |
| 524 | 01:38:00,810 --> 01:38:09,450 | trading session. And then closing off many times a little bit off the high. Looking at the example you have here, you can see that just about happening |
| 525 | 01:38:09,480 --> 01:38:21,240 | almost on a daily basis. The vice versa would be obviously on a down move, the open would be very near the high and the close very close to the low. The |
| 526 | 01:38:21,240 --> 01:38:32,610 | general principle is the low is formed briefly after the opening on updates and the high generally forums between 15 116 100 GMT put that in your notepad and |
| 527 | 01:38:32,610 --> 01:38:45,900 | then you test that theory on your own going forward for the next couple of weeks. Okay, let's look at a large range day. Okay, we've pointed out this one |
| 528 | 01:38:45,930 --> 01:38:55,620 | specifically here. And this is one actually did trade. Now admittedly, I got out during the middle part of the day because I had thought that it was going to |
| 529 | 01:38:56,490 --> 01:39:05,670 | retrace a little bit deeper and and give me a better opportunity. But I missed it. And I was only able to catch the first leg of the daily trend. But this |
| 530 | 01:39:05,670 --> 01:39:15,960 | large range day, okay, came with the principles that we just discussed. Okay, we had the chart here on the right hand side is going to depict a few things. The |
| 531 | 01:39:15,960 --> 01:39:27,150 | first let's look at this, okay, we have the beginning of a new day here. Okay? Then the market Peters around, okay, this is all Asia, okay? In this vertical |
| 532 | 01:39:27,150 --> 01:39:38,040 | line, delineated here is midnight, New York time, okay. Then you see the market dropped down during the European session in London. Then the market takes off |
| 533 | 01:39:38,040 --> 01:39:47,580 | goes vertical, goes into a consolidation. Okay. And during this time, what I actually expected was to retrace a little bit deeper, maybe come back down into |
| 534 | 01:39:47,580 --> 01:40:00,660 | touch this high in here. But this was a New York open trade here, and an event violently traded higher going into the latter part of the day. And then Peters |
| 535 | 01:40:00,660 --> 01:40:10,860 | off from the high encloses just a little bit off the high, but certainly, well way away from the opening price. And then after this vertical delineation here, |
| 536 | 01:40:10,860 --> 01:40:20,490 | this is 1800 GMT. And I'm gonna talk about these two markers in a moment because I've really never discussed this on any other video or series or any kind of |
| 537 | 01:40:20,580 --> 01:40:29,160 | discussion. But I'm actually going to highlight more insight as to why 1800 is very significant number, then in the market SNC goes quiet going into the new |
| 538 | 01:40:29,160 --> 01:40:42,150 | day. Now, what is so special about the midnight timeframe on New York? Well, the North American continent doesn't consider the new day. Like, the FX market |
| 539 | 01:40:42,150 --> 01:40:51,570 | generally calls the you know, in Wellington being the new new start of a new day, I don't consider that as a new day. Okay, now, I certainly take in |
| 540 | 01:40:51,570 --> 01:41:03,180 | consideration all the Asian trading, okay. But, and this is gonna be very confusing, but I always count that as yesterday's trade. My new day begins at |
| 541 | 01:41:03,180 --> 01:41:11,280 | midnight, New York Standard Time. Now, again, that's gonna probably gonna throw a lot of us off, but just understand this is how I break the market down |
| 542 | 01:41:12,180 --> 01:41:21,240 | midnight, New York time to 1800 GMT time, okay, or basically 2pm |
| 543 | 01:41:22,260 --> 01:41:29,700 | New York time. Okay, that's the cutoff of the daily range. Everyone asked, when's the close? You know, when does New York close? Or when does this and when |
| 544 | 01:41:29,700 --> 01:41:38,400 | does that? Let's talk about the commodity market for a moment. Because before FX was opened up to the general public, the only time you could really participate |
| 545 | 01:41:38,430 --> 01:41:50,580 | in the currency market was if you were trading the options market or the futures and or midam contracts on the commodity exchanges. And it was in the form of |
| 546 | 01:41:50,580 --> 01:42:00,300 | open outcry. Now open outcry is still in existence today, not as predominantly as was years ago because everything's slowly transitioning to electronic much to |
| 547 | 01:42:00,300 --> 01:42:11,700 | dismiss once to their dismay, but there is essentially a rhythm to the marketplace is still based on that open outcry. Now, but doesn't you know, pet |
| 548 | 01:42:12,780 --> 01:42:21,870 | currency markets, okay or calm dolls? Okay, that means the commodity markets that trade on the futures contract basis that means Australian dollar, Canadian |
| 549 | 01:42:21,870 --> 01:42:35,010 | dollar British Pound Swiss franc job Japanese yen, okay, those currencies, okay? Are cocktails, they can be traded as a futures contract. The futures contract |
| 550 | 01:42:35,010 --> 01:42:46,500 | open outcry pit begins trading at 720 New York time. Now, what do you think so significant about that time? That's 20 minutes after the beginning of our New |
| 551 | 01:42:46,500 --> 01:42:58,320 | York open kill zone. Okay. Why is the New York open kill zone so cool and so easy to trade is because that market event open outcry also is going to be |
| 552 | 01:42:58,590 --> 01:43:10,680 | involved in the daily range. Okay. Why 1800? Well, because at two o'clock in the afternoon in New York time, the open outcry pit closes, and they are gone for |
| 553 | 01:43:10,680 --> 01:43:21,510 | the day. And you can see here that clearly is illustrated, there's no more volatility, very married, very little volatility all unless there's a FOMC. You |
| 554 | 01:43:21,510 --> 01:43:27,870 | know, interest rate announcement, which typically comes in around two o'clock in the afternoon, you know, in late in the afternoon, where it really nobody should |
| 555 | 01:43:27,870 --> 01:43:37,170 | be trading anyway. So will you miss a move? Certainly, if you if that's if you're really involved in trying to gamble trading those types of events like |
| 556 | 01:43:37,170 --> 01:43:44,760 | non farm payroll, I can certainly do without trading one Friday of every month, okay, I don't really care to be a part of that roller coaster, I can trade it, I |
| 557 | 01:43:44,760 --> 01:43:54,720 | just choose not to. But if you bracket out your days like this, okay, on an intraday basis, I think what you'll start seeing is there's a clear symmetry to |
| 558 | 01:43:54,720 --> 01:44:09,930 | the market that goes unnoticed by 99% of mentors, or gurus or teachers, or even traders and this is the actual daily range that goes on every single day. If you |
| 559 | 01:44:09,930 --> 01:44:21,570 | understand how that works, you can see this, the open the down move to move up the high and off the close. And as you see here, the open the down move, the |
| 560 | 01:44:21,570 --> 01:44:30,900 | high format and then off the close, and then off the high as it close. So that's what we're looking for when we're trading intraday or getting positioned during |
| 561 | 01:44:31,380 --> 01:44:44,970 | up word bullish market environments. Okay, let's talk about kill zones. Okay, and first, we're gonna talk about it in my timezone, which is the Eastern |
| 562 | 01:44:45,000 --> 01:44:57,480 | Standard Time. I live on the east coast of North America in Baltimore, Maryland. And basically, we're looking at the European and American session. We're not |
| 563 | 01:44:57,480 --> 01:45:07,350 | going to spend too much time actually really At any time at all really talking about Asia or the Pacific Australian session, because it's basically the quiet |
| 564 | 01:45:07,350 --> 01:45:16,650 | portion of the daily range. And really when markets are accumulating new orders, okay, and we'll talk more about that later on in other episodes. But for now, |
| 565 | 01:45:16,950 --> 01:45:27,210 | understand this, I generally start hunting during the Frankfort open, which is 2am. And many, many times you'll hear me commonly call to a in the beginning of |
| 566 | 01:45:27,240 --> 01:45:37,920 | the London session. And it's either because I'm rushing, trying to talk about something and really just inadvertently misquoting it, but this understand this |
| 567 | 01:45:38,040 --> 01:45:46,680 | when I get up in the middle of night to start trading in my timezone. Okay, two o'clock in the morning, I'm in there hunting, okay, but I'm hunting essentially |
| 568 | 01:45:46,680 --> 01:45:55,890 | the move that sets the higher the low of the day. And I want to trade in directional bias for that daily range going into London close and or 1800 GMT. |
| 569 | 01:45:56,100 --> 01:45:56,520 | Okay. |
| 570 | 01:45:57,810 --> 01:46:11,010 | The London kill zone, I use 5am as mine close of shop. In other words, if I haven't established a position by 5am my time, okay, I basically take a nap and |
| 571 | 01:46:11,010 --> 01:46:18,450 | come back right before seven o'clock in the morning. Okay, generally at 630 in the morning, I'm peeking at the charts and seeing what's going on. Now, for the |
| 572 | 01:46:18,450 --> 01:46:26,700 | American session here you see 8am. And that's commonly what's been disclosed with many other trading teachers, okay, but if you look at your charts, guys, |
| 573 | 01:46:27,120 --> 01:46:37,290 | many times the moves are starting about 7am between 7am to 7:30am. Okay, and now you understand why because the open outcry pit starts at 7:20am New York time. |
| 574 | 01:46:37,650 --> 01:46:46,710 | So there's a reason why there's something that you generates a signal there or a swing high or swing low. This can be incorporated on that daily range, to trade |
| 575 | 01:46:46,740 --> 01:46:59,010 | intraday setups, whether it be scalping or day trades. And I usually close up shop anywhere between 1500 to 1600 GMT, generally 80% of the time, and then when |
| 576 | 01:46:59,010 --> 01:47:08,940 | it's really, really taken off and blown out all objectives I had for the day. I'll leave a very small portion of the trade on for 1800 GMT, but very rarely |
| 577 | 01:47:08,940 --> 01:47:18,600 | does it ever happen. Many most of the time 80% of the time, I'm out of the market by 1600 GMT So between 15 116 100 GMT, that's usually the close of the |
| 578 | 01:47:18,600 --> 01:47:28,410 | day for me it's we're not usually you'll see the higher low form for the day. Okay, folks, we're looking at the Euro USD is a five minute chart. And what I |
| 579 | 01:47:28,410 --> 01:47:38,460 | have delineated on this chart here, we have these red dashed lines, okay, and green dashed lines. Okay, now if I keep my mouse right on top of it, it's going |
| 580 | 01:47:38,460 --> 01:47:55,470 | to show the ICT Asian range. And what I've done was simply pull up the indicator, and I edited the beginning and end of specific windows of time. This |
| 581 | 01:47:55,470 --> 01:48:10,110 | is the London open kill zone that I trade with. begins stalking setups for the European session at six GMT. And as late as 10 GMT. And for the New York open, I |
| 582 | 01:48:10,110 --> 01:48:21,090 | made it real easy. And something that's generic you guys can use over and over and over again. 12 to 15 GMT, okay. 12 to 15 GMT, to get all the subtle nuances |
| 583 | 01:48:21,090 --> 01:48:31,770 | that make me use 30 minute dividers and such I'm just giving you a block of time 12 to 15 GMT. And that'll give you everything you would need for the New York |
| 584 | 01:48:31,770 --> 01:48:41,730 | open session. Now, when you have this on your chart, okay, I'm sure you're probably asking yourself, you know, what's great, can I have that indicator to |
| 585 | 01:48:42,450 --> 01:48:55,890 | I'm going to supply it, I'm going to add it to a file server and if FX gears comm could could allow me to host it on the thread I'm doing there. That's |
| 586 | 01:48:55,890 --> 01:49:04,530 | wonderful. If not, I'll get with jack and see if he could hook you guys up to you guys can download it and a couple other indicators that we're going to be |
| 587 | 01:49:04,530 --> 01:49:16,080 | employing in this video series. Now, what I want to draw your attention to is that I want you to see the highs and lows that form during these particular |
| 588 | 01:49:16,110 --> 01:49:27,270 | sessions. This is the new york open session and the London open session. The higher the day form during the London open and the low was essentially almost |
| 589 | 01:49:27,300 --> 01:49:43,470 | formed during the New York session going into that 60 1600 hour the next day. Okay, we have a nice tradable rally up into this area of time it was just |
| 590 | 01:49:43,500 --> 01:49:53,070 | outside of it by two, two bars here or an hour 10 minutes and then sold off. We have a nice opportunity to get in sync with the daily trend here with a high |
| 591 | 01:49:53,070 --> 01:50:06,330 | forming in New York open and making a move lower. We have the low forming in London. And then another tradable low off of the direction formed from the |
| 592 | 01:50:06,360 --> 01:50:22,260 | London open. Here is the New York open trade. And this happened to be one that I took part in, in a live trade. So this is the scenario, I'll go over this |
| 593 | 01:50:22,260 --> 01:50:40,830 | because I've been doing video reviews and a couple weeks just give you this as the highlight. Okay, the price made all these multiple steps lower, and showed |
| 594 | 01:50:40,830 --> 01:50:54,660 | an unwillingness to go lower, consolidated, found the low in London open, trade it up and retraced into the New York session going into optimal trade entry, and |
| 595 | 01:50:54,660 --> 01:50:55,350 | a sweet spot |
| 596 | 01:50:56,910 --> 01:51:02,340 | and rallied on up now. If |
| 597 | 01:51:08,580 --> 01:51:13,140 | you use your Fibonacci tools, |
| 598 | 01:51:25,050 --> 01:51:36,450 | here's your 162 extension, nailing it for the high. And we'll talk more about targeting and an exit prices and all that stuff when we get into later portions |
| 599 | 01:51:36,450 --> 01:51:47,460 | of the series. But you can see how the London and New York open kill zones here gave you very nice opportunities for setup. Here we have another scenario where |
| 600 | 01:51:48,360 --> 01:52:01,140 | using the previous day's low, okay, and all we're doing here is highlighting the importance or the influence that the New York and London kill zones provide for |
| 601 | 01:52:01,440 --> 01:52:15,810 | setting up opportunities to trade this area here, okay, during the London open, we retraced inside of this range here. And then where we had this consolidation, |
| 602 | 01:52:16,050 --> 01:52:27,180 | and the market moved out of it, this this placement can only happen when there is a large entity behind the move against retail traders will not cause this. |
| 603 | 01:52:27,330 --> 01:52:35,640 | Okay. And then price retraces back into it. And then once it do, it rallies up again. And where's it rally to, to take out old highs in here that were too |
| 604 | 01:52:35,640 --> 01:52:46,080 | clean, guys way too clean, and price stabbed up in there and gave an opportunity to take profits if you're a short term scalper on the long side. But the bias |
| 605 | 01:52:46,080 --> 01:52:58,740 | was lower. Okay, and we talked about earlier. You know how it's important to focus on these higher timeframe. Key reaction levels. And that was the reason |
| 606 | 01:52:58,740 --> 01:53:15,300 | why we saw this really explosive move lower the high form during the New York open session and the low actually formed in the New York session as well. The |
| 607 | 01:53:15,300 --> 01:53:30,480 | following day, we had a short term, high fondant here, but a tradable low formed off the fiber in the New York session, making the high here and then closing the |
| 608 | 01:53:30,480 --> 01:53:44,130 | week out. As we see. The kill zones are where you bracket in terms of time. Now, by itself doesn't do anything for you, you have to have an understanding of |
| 609 | 01:53:44,370 --> 01:53:57,300 | support resistance and key music reaction levels and directional premise to frame your trade on. But inside these little pockets, okay. And really it looks |
| 610 | 01:53:57,300 --> 01:54:11,280 | like this if it's hard for you to see. It's this whole window right here of time. Inside this block of time is where the scenario of a trade should form. |
| 611 | 01:54:11,700 --> 01:54:24,930 | Okay. And the same thing goes for the London open inside this area or small little pocket of time and price. That's what the scenario is going to unfold for |
| 612 | 01:54:24,930 --> 01:54:35,880 | you to take a trade, okay, so it allows you to really hone in like a scope on a rifle like a sniper. Does zero in on where you should be sitting down in front |
| 613 | 01:54:35,880 --> 01:54:43,800 | of your computer. Okay, if you're a London open, or London trader, this is where you do your business. Okay, if you are London trader and don't trade on in New |
| 614 | 01:54:43,800 --> 01:54:52,230 | York session, you're cheating yourself because there's a lot of times the setups that you may have missed being incorrect or just missed altogether, will give |
| 615 | 01:54:52,230 --> 01:55:01,530 | you a opportunity to get in sync with that move. darned in New York session. My My best advice as a mentor would be to really try Learn that New York session. |
| 616 | 01:55:02,310 --> 01:55:12,750 | It's very comfortable traded as an as a North American trader, unless you're on the west coast, and if you're out there on the west coast, you know, that's |
| 617 | 01:55:12,750 --> 01:55:22,800 | something you're gonna have to suck up. Because there's nothing more about that I can say that you guys got generally very favorable weather. So if this is the |
| 618 | 01:55:22,830 --> 01:55:31,410 | thing, you got to trade in for it, then haha. So anyway, the New York session, obviously, to me, I think is the easiest one to learn, it's the most forgiving |
| 619 | 01:55:31,410 --> 01:55:39,990 | because it gives you the London session behind you, as a, you know, a catalyst just a frame your trade off of. So if you have a higher time frame support and |
| 620 | 01:55:39,990 --> 01:55:48,660 | resistance level noted a directional premise in mind. And then you have the London session key new in that same direction, man, you have a loaded deal. As |
| 621 | 01:55:48,660 --> 01:56:14,010 | you have here in this example, on the fourth of September, the stick all this stuff off actually, if you have any doubts that there is some significance |
| 622 | 01:56:14,010 --> 01:56:23,490 | behind these particular windows of time, it's going to be your homework to actually go through the next week, |
| 623 | 01:56:23,940 --> 01:56:40,920 | okay, and have those time windows bracketed out. Again, for the New York session, it's going to be 12 GMT to 1500 GMT, and six GMT to 10 GMT for the |
| 624 | 01:56:40,950 --> 01:56:47,700 | London open kill zone. And for those who have been following me for a while, if you've noticed, there's a slight difference in those windows, I just did it for |
| 625 | 01:56:47,700 --> 01:56:55,290 | this teaching series. Because there's a lot of members of FX gears, it's not familiar with my stuff. And I'm not going to be populating their website with |
| 626 | 01:56:55,290 --> 01:57:04,890 | all of my videos, so I just more or less made it user friendly, so that we guys can have generic time windows to to work with and there'll be very friendly to |
| 627 | 01:57:04,890 --> 01:57:14,790 | you, there's nothing going to be missed outside of those windows of time. But if you do this for a week, okay, my advice is to see what happens during these |
| 628 | 01:57:14,790 --> 01:57:28,320 | windows of time. Okay. And when there is high level, higher timeframe, reaction level around the same pockets of opportunity in terms of time kill zones, and |
| 629 | 01:57:28,320 --> 01:57:35,550 | then you'll see a confluence of events unfolding, that if you miss it, we'll find out more about it in the fourth installment because we're going to go over |
| 630 | 01:57:35,550 --> 01:57:45,960 | the examples. But really, I want you to see what you think may happen based on everything we've covered so far. It's not a test, okay? It's just a learning |
| 631 | 01:57:45,990 --> 01:57:49,770 | opportunity for you to familiarize yourself with price action. |
| 632 | 01:57:58,050 --> 01:58:15,090 | Okay, we are looking at the ICT market maker by model. Okay, this very crude depiction of how markets move on a fractal basis. Okay. Generally, what you'll |
| 633 | 01:58:15,090 --> 01:58:30,330 | see is the market will open inside of a consolidation trading range, and not open but don't enter a trading range environment. Now, this by model is really |
| 634 | 01:58:30,330 --> 01:58:42,750 | universal, it could be applied to any timeframe, but we're going to be basically looking at it one day for our one hour 15 and five minute basis, okay. And |
| 635 | 01:58:43,980 --> 01:58:52,290 | what'll happen is, is the market will move out of that consolidation, trade out of it, and then come back and many times retest that first consolidation. Okay, |
| 636 | 01:58:52,290 --> 01:59:05,070 | so if you miss the accumulation portion of the first wave down, you can get back in sync with it by waiting for this retracement up. Okay. And this just swings |
| 637 | 01:59:05,070 --> 01:59:15,450 | aren't generally in this example, aren't really uniform. In other words, this could come up a little bit higher into the range from this high here to this low |
| 638 | 01:59:15,450 --> 01:59:25,530 | and give you some kind of a 62 to 79 seven tradesmen level not necessary. But there's other factors that you could hunt in here to set up a scenario to sell |
| 639 | 01:59:25,680 --> 01:59:38,610 | short, if you want to participate in the first leg going lower. Once price comes down into a resistance level or support level, an inversion level where maybe |
| 640 | 01:59:39,240 --> 01:59:48,570 | this level was possibly in old level resistance and my market broke through came back down down to testing support. Basically, when price comes down to a clear |
| 641 | 01:59:48,570 --> 01:59:58,710 | level of support rather, we could expect the market to turn around now it doesn't mean we just go in here start buying it up. You can but I don't |
| 642 | 01:59:58,740 --> 02:00:08,640 | generally teach That as a means of doing it. After some years of training and trading real time, once you get some experience under your belt, you may be able |
| 643 | 02:00:08,640 --> 02:00:17,610 | to take trades like that. But that's not what I'm illustrating in these videos, I want you to wait for some confirmation. Confirmation comes in the form of a |
| 644 | 02:00:17,610 --> 02:00:25,530 | break in market structure. And it moves higher and many times comes back and gives you an opportunity to retest that first consolidation in here, after the |
| 645 | 02:00:25,530 --> 02:00:35,250 | climax reversal pattern forms at support. Rice will come up and rally out of that, again, move into another consolidation. Okay, and we could be working off |
| 646 | 02:00:35,250 --> 02:00:43,920 | of the levels that was formed over here. Okay, so whatever timeframe this pattern forms in, okay, you're gonna be utilizing, again, same premise of key |
| 647 | 02:00:43,920 --> 02:00:53,760 | support resistance. This will be another continuation pattern off of what would be expected as a climax reversal by setup down here, off of a higher level |
| 648 | 02:00:53,820 --> 02:01:05,970 | timeframe key support. When the secondary buy scenario happens here, or it just makes one, okay, there's that's why these two boxes are blue. Generally, it can |
| 649 | 02:01:05,970 --> 02:01:17,010 | be one or two small little pauses or consolidations. And then there's a explosive move up to take out the highs above the first consolidation. Okay, and |
| 650 | 02:01:17,040 --> 02:01:26,850 | the premise is this, the market makers start building up orders in here, okay, and they hold price within a clearly defined range. There's not enough buyers |
| 651 | 02:01:26,850 --> 02:01:33,990 | that keep it higher, and there's not enough sellers to take it lower. So what'll happen is, is that market makers keep it in a tight rein to accumulate |
| 652 | 02:01:33,990 --> 02:01:39,780 | positions. Okay? Now, what they want is to hold the market in a holding pattern |
| 653 | 02:01:41,100 --> 02:01:51,930 | to establish a premise for them to take the market the other way. Same thing can be seen here, just in the reverse on a market maker sell model, we have a |
| 654 | 02:01:51,930 --> 02:02:02,910 | consolidation and move comes out of the consolidation, and the highs of that consolidation are usually retested. Now, again, that doesn't always have to |
| 655 | 02:02:02,910 --> 02:02:10,860 | happen like that, but we expect it to happen. If it doesn't come back down at least many times, it'll give you some kind of small little pause in here, or |
| 656 | 02:02:10,860 --> 02:02:18,930 | maybe a bull flag formation type thing. And then it will rally up into a clearly defined resistance level. inside of that resistance level, there will be a |
| 657 | 02:02:18,930 --> 02:02:29,520 | climax reversal pattern. Okay? Many times you'll see, okay, here's a little notepad moment for you, if you want to see when indicators work, like they do in |
| 658 | 02:02:29,520 --> 02:02:38,100 | the textbooks, okay, if you see this pattern here, unfolding like this, and trades up into a resistance level, many times you're going to see your standard |
| 659 | 02:02:38,130 --> 02:02:49,590 | divergence of the MACD, your stochastics, your RSI, your CCI, you know, spaghetti, whatever it is you use, for your indicators, if it causes a |
| 660 | 02:02:49,590 --> 02:02:59,400 | divergence for a buy or sell signal, you're gonna see it form here. Okay, and because think about if this if these indicators, didn't call major moves, |
| 661 | 02:02:59,580 --> 02:03:05,850 | whenever we're paying attention to them, and the only reason why we pay attention to them, is because they work on the left side of the chart, we can |
| 662 | 02:03:05,850 --> 02:03:16,770 | see it, it did it the last time, right. So it's going to do it again. But nobody understands the reasons behind why diverged, okay, and it's based on the higher |
| 663 | 02:03:16,770 --> 02:03:25,650 | timeframe resistance level, and the fact that the dealers, market makers have taken price up there in a stab that price level over and over and over again, to |
| 664 | 02:03:25,650 --> 02:03:35,670 | distribute the orders that were accumulated here. Okay, so they're buying it all up in here. Okay, they're distributing a little bit here. They're distributing a |
| 665 | 02:03:35,670 --> 02:03:43,650 | whole lot of it here to dumping it. Okay. And then when the market pulls back, a lot of traders viewed this area as another continuation pattern, much in the |
| 666 | 02:03:43,650 --> 02:03:50,700 | same way it does here. Okay, well, maybe this is a bull flag, okay. And what they'll do is they'll buy it with the expectation is going to continue moving on |
| 667 | 02:03:50,700 --> 02:03:58,920 | higher, what will happen is, they'll have buy orders, you know, in the small little areas of dealing ranges that we're going to discuss later on. And what'll |
| 668 | 02:03:58,920 --> 02:04:08,040 | happen is they'll pair orders up and stack up all kinds of shorting opportunities, and they'll distribute the market very heavily. And what'll |
| 669 | 02:04:08,040 --> 02:04:17,760 | happen is, is once they get a block of trades on the other side of their position, essentially, they will do a real quick repricing. And they'll trap |
| 670 | 02:04:17,760 --> 02:04:24,540 | traders. And what'll happen is, is that you've, you've done this before, you know exactly what I'm talking about. Even those guys in demos. You put a trade |
| 671 | 02:04:24,540 --> 02:04:31,950 | on, okay, maybe you bought it up in here, something like that. Okay. And the market drops down hard, okay. And you're thinking, Okay, well, maybe it's just |
| 672 | 02:04:32,130 --> 02:04:40,290 | gonna come down here and retest some some resistance, turn support, and then resume. Okay, then you start seeing this little pop up here and you get excited |
| 673 | 02:04:40,290 --> 02:04:48,450 | that Okay, I'm going to go back to breakeven, but the dealers know that, okay, the market makers already had these folks trapped, and if you went on there and |
| 674 | 02:04:48,450 --> 02:04:55,590 | you bought your trap just like they are, they don't want to give you an opportunity to get out of that trade. Okay? They're going to keep you on a |
| 675 | 02:04:55,590 --> 02:05:05,700 | negative float. Okay? You're going to be below the dealers. Okay, and maybe even pips, you know, and negative beyond that. Okay. And what happened is they'll do |
| 676 | 02:05:05,700 --> 02:05:11,850 | another repricing and now here's what you're gonna do because Okay, we're, we're just retesting this whole area in here again, and we're gonna find some support, |
| 677 | 02:05:11,880 --> 02:05:20,310 | but it blows through it. Okay? The dealers will go into another consolidation thinking, Okay, well, I know what this is, this is one of those retracements, |
| 678 | 02:05:20,310 --> 02:05:29,790 | where from the low up to this high, we got one of those ICT optimal trade entries. Nope. Now here, what will happen is they'll do one more time, they'll |
| 679 | 02:05:29,790 --> 02:05:36,240 | run it and got lower, and they'll take out the stops that are placed when the folks that were right that bought this rally here, and just held on for too |
| 680 | 02:05:36,240 --> 02:05:46,590 | long. Okay, so there is an accumulation distribution here or re cumulation for new Long's. Okay, and then when they get up here, they distribute all of this in |
| 681 | 02:05:46,590 --> 02:05:53,970 | here, but they do it very quickly. That's why when you get up to these levels, prices stay up there very long. Why, because they're doing a massive |
| 682 | 02:05:53,970 --> 02:06:01,920 | distribution. And you see the price really drop off fast. But when it drops off, it'll give you a little bit of consolidation. One more rally up, when it gets on |
| 683 | 02:06:01,920 --> 02:06:11,010 | the other side of that, that zenith of this price move. When we get to this start rallying up, this is where you start selling, okay, and when you can |
| 684 | 02:06:11,010 --> 02:06:17,100 | identify this pattern, it makes your trading a whole lot easier because you understand what they're doing and where they're taking price. |
| 685 | 02:06:25,470 --> 02:06:34,320 | Okay, guys, we got some key levels here noted on our timeframe of a daily chart. And we're gonna give some examples of what is a market maker profile, I'm gonna |
| 686 | 02:06:34,320 --> 02:06:44,100 | give you a by example, and some cell examples. And the way you utilize them is obviously you have a higher time frame support resistance level, but they can |
| 687 | 02:06:44,100 --> 02:06:54,810 | occur on any time frame. But the more apt to occur on a daily four hour and or hourly timeframe. And then if you have a understanding of what their directional |
| 688 | 02:06:54,810 --> 02:07:05,130 | premises want to lower timeframes, you can use them 115 15 minute 30 minute hourly charts and such. But for now, we're just gonna give you examples on |
| 689 | 02:07:05,280 --> 02:07:17,400 | finding off of a daily timeframe. See, price trades down into this level here is an old support. And all we did was rounded to a 127 60 level, we just calibrated |
| 690 | 02:07:17,400 --> 02:07:27,330 | the level to a round number. We're gonna look at this area here for buying market profile for market maker profile. And then we have one in here trading |
| 691 | 02:07:27,330 --> 02:07:37,740 | into this resistance level. Okay, and then we're going to go and look at the sell scenario. We called no last video, and how it was a market maker sell |
| 692 | 02:07:37,740 --> 02:07:53,040 | model. Okay, so we're going to do is we're going to look at this particular day, and the actual candle comes in at July 9 2013. And we're going to start with an |
| 693 | 02:07:53,070 --> 02:08:01,350 | hourly perspective on it. Okay, and all I did was use this to highlight the time, okay, we have |
| 694 | 02:08:07,830 --> 02:08:24,420 | Okay, marketing, consolidation. Okay, we have a consolidation, here, market breaks out of consolidation and retests that same consolidation here, trades |
| 695 | 02:08:24,420 --> 02:08:36,660 | lower, okay. And it's a couple minor little retracements to get in sync with that move lower, making the actual low here, NEMA false swing lower, this is the |
| 696 | 02:08:36,660 --> 02:08:53,610 | actual high. I'm sorry, the actual low point of the market maker sell model in here. Okay, and then price rallies through, takes out this high here, and very |
| 697 | 02:08:53,610 --> 02:09:06,390 | little pausing it all here just explodes and where's the explode to above the consolidation in here? Okay. So, again, the same price model, here in this |
| 698 | 02:09:06,390 --> 02:09:20,580 | fractal pattern is seen on a hourly basis. You can see ultimately, it comes back in and trades even further. If we go and look at the daily chart again. And |
| 699 | 02:09:20,580 --> 02:09:36,450 | we're going to look at this example here for a cell. Okay, right in here, and I'm going to zoom in so you can see this candle right there. Okay, the levels of |
| 700 | 02:09:36,480 --> 02:09:45,960 | keys for resistance on a higher timeframe would be noted in advance. So as price trades up into it, we would expect to see a market maker so model unfold. And |
| 701 | 02:09:45,960 --> 02:09:47,370 | let's go down to a 15 minute. |
| 702 | 02:09:53,460 --> 02:10:04,440 | Okay, you see that happening here and let's actually go down to a five minute see a little bit better. And stick this rectangle office is no longer needed. |
| 703 | 02:10:05,280 --> 02:10:21,240 | Okay, we have the consolidation, move out the consolidation, and then retest. Now this part does not have to happen. Okay. But generally you'll see it happen. |
| 704 | 02:10:21,600 --> 02:10:34,800 | And then there's a continuation moving up, mix the high, or the capitulation portion of the buy model. Now it turns to the sell side of it. Okay, so we are |
| 705 | 02:10:34,800 --> 02:10:45,270 | now in a market maker sell model profile. And we would expect to see this consolidation ran out, as you see here, market moves down, consolidation on here |
| 706 | 02:10:45,270 --> 02:10:56,040 | another break lower, where is it trade to below the consolidation, where accumulated positions were taken on. And you can see ultimately, that's the |
| 707 | 02:10:56,160 --> 02:11:09,420 | price model right there. Okay, and let's go back out to a daily. Okay, we're gonna look at the 134 30 level, okay, see this high here, the lows in here and |
| 708 | 02:11:09,420 --> 02:11:22,590 | the bodies that have candles as well. So we have 134 30, small round number, it's just above this high as well. And we're going to zoom in and look at this |
| 709 | 02:11:22,590 --> 02:11:31,620 | profile. Right here. And as price moves up into these levels, we would reasonably expect to see a market maker sell model, we're going to into an |
| 710 | 02:11:31,860 --> 02:11:32,970 | hourly timeframe. |
| 711 | 02:11:38,640 --> 02:11:51,420 | And we're going to zoom out. Okay, we can see the consolidation, let's take these vertical lines off cleaned up a little bit. You can see the consolidation |
| 712 | 02:11:51,420 --> 02:12:11,190 | in here. consolidated, moved out came back, retested, the consolidation moves on up, false rally higher, breaks down, rallies on again on the other side. And |
| 713 | 02:12:11,190 --> 02:12:18,540 | again, this is the sell model. So again, this is the sell model. So you're gonna see, |
| 714 | 02:12:26,340 --> 02:12:36,750 | price run out this consolidation on the line, you can see that happened there. Okay, so that's the market maker, sell model. And again, we call this market |
| 715 | 02:12:36,750 --> 02:12:45,750 | lower here, before the actual move ensued, given some further credibility to the analysis concepts, and it's not always hindsight here picking. |
| 716 | 02:12:51,630 --> 02:13:05,580 | Alright, let's talk about market orders. And how dealers work within the marketplace and how they perceive traders, psychology, and how you can pretty |
| 717 | 02:13:05,580 --> 02:13:14,070 | much get close to what they're doing without even seeing the order books. Alright, we're looking at a conceptual idea of what market prices right now. And |
| 718 | 02:13:14,070 --> 02:13:25,140 | we're not going to have a chart where it's going to conceptually talk about the generic principles associated with how reading the market. Alright, let's assume |
| 719 | 02:13:25,140 --> 02:13:33,000 | for a moment, the market price moves up to what would be considered a key level, okay, or could be moving down to a key level doesn't matter. But we're saying |
| 720 | 02:13:33,000 --> 02:13:43,650 | for the moment right now, we are trading at a highly sensitive price point that reacted. Most recently, or maybe a couple weeks ago, there was a significant |
| 721 | 02:13:43,650 --> 02:13:52,590 | reaction, that same price level. So now market moves, whether it be up or down, we now have a market price that's equal to or very close to that key level. The |
| 722 | 02:13:52,590 --> 02:14:01,830 | question comes to mind is where do we go from here? Do we move higher? Or do we move lower? When you're watching price, what you're going to be looking for are |
| 723 | 02:14:01,830 --> 02:14:14,910 | clues. Okay, there's going to be a fingerprint, if you will, of what may be unfolding. And generally what happens is above the market price, okay, there are |
| 724 | 02:14:14,940 --> 02:14:24,630 | protective buy stops on those that have maybe put on net short positions. And many times, simply above that just a little bit more, there's going to be |
| 725 | 02:14:24,630 --> 02:14:32,910 | pending sell limit orders for those that have been possibly being long. Okay. nonwords. We have net long traders in the market. And we have net short traders |
| 726 | 02:14:32,910 --> 02:14:43,470 | in the market. The net trader, on the short side, want to protect our position, so they're going to have their protective buy stops somewhere above the market |
| 727 | 02:14:43,470 --> 02:14:54,960 | price. And again, the premises is this market price is now trading at a key level. Okay? And because traders always have a different view, if even if the |
| 728 | 02:14:54,960 --> 02:15:08,730 | marketplace is a implied support level folks may be really looking to sell short. Okay, and we're gonna talk about that in a moment. But for those that |
| 729 | 02:15:08,730 --> 02:15:19,110 | have saw this level as a potential support zone, and they want to be expecting some kind of a bounce up, they would have pending sell limit orders to exit some |
| 730 | 02:15:19,110 --> 02:15:29,340 | of their position and or all of it dip for a profit. And then obviously, folks that expect to see it go up only if it proves a little bit more that it's going |
| 731 | 02:15:29,340 --> 02:15:39,120 | to move upwards, they'll have a new long buy, stop. Okay, so in other words, we have three types of orders that exists generally above current market price, |
| 732 | 02:15:39,300 --> 02:15:50,550 | that being pending selling orders for those that are net long, protective buy stops on those that are net short, and new potential buy stops for those that |
| 733 | 02:15:50,550 --> 02:16:02,940 | want to enter on buying strength. On the converse side, obviously, you have for those that are buying this, this particular price level, you have protective |
| 734 | 02:16:02,940 --> 02:16:13,920 | cell stops protecting what they believe there's a potential buyer scenario unfolding, then you have cell stops that are resting below the market price for |
| 735 | 02:16:14,190 --> 02:16:26,040 | new short selling sellers, they want to sell one weakness. And below that, usually you'll have pending limit orders to be you tripped for covering short |
| 736 | 02:16:26,040 --> 02:16:38,040 | positions, okay. In other words, they're using that type of order to exit on a profit target objective for short positions. The question is, where are we most |
| 737 | 02:16:38,040 --> 02:16:48,480 | likely building up orders, okay. And it's very tricky in the beginning, because you have to spend some time looking at charts. Okay, this is going to come with |
| 738 | 02:16:48,480 --> 02:16:57,420 | time. And when you hear me talk about and a lot of times that you'll hear me in my market review videos, or sometimes in my teaching videos, many times I'll |
| 739 | 02:16:58,080 --> 02:17:06,570 | talk out loud, okay, my thought process isn't always meant for you to |
| 740 | 02:17:07,890 --> 02:17:19,680 | be taught what I'm always speaking, okay. In other words, I may be thinking out loud about a phenomenon that may be unfolding at a particular level, okay. And |
| 741 | 02:17:19,680 --> 02:17:28,140 | I'm not really meaning to teach that to you, because it's something that you're going to have to drill overtop of charts to learn on your own, okay. And this is |
| 742 | 02:17:28,140 --> 02:17:36,930 | the part of the experience factor that comes into play, and why patience is so important. Because if you don't have patience, you won't give yourself the time |
| 743 | 02:17:36,930 --> 02:17:46,230 | to develop this neck, because that's exactly what this is, I don't have an order book, I don't have access to you know, what these orders are outside of what |
| 744 | 02:17:46,230 --> 02:17:55,710 | everybody else has on a retail level, okay, I can make phone calls and ask where orders are stacking up. But it's only really limited to a certain portion of the |
| 745 | 02:17:55,710 --> 02:18:07,710 | actual marketplace. So the psychology behind price action is very readable. Okay. And it's by using these simple six types of orders around market price. |
| 746 | 02:18:08,430 --> 02:18:17,670 | Obviously, if prices moved up to a resistance level, okay, one would expect new sellers to come into place, and then there'd be protective buy stops |
| 747 | 02:18:17,700 --> 02:18:24,120 | established. And those that have been net long, they want to be getting out of their position, and they're greedy, they want to be trying to get that extra |
| 748 | 02:18:24,120 --> 02:18:32,610 | little bit of drops of lemon juice out of that lemon, they want to squeeze it for all it's worth, it's a lot to try to put their limiters on the far side of |
| 749 | 02:18:33,000 --> 02:18:41,850 | the particular resistance level, okay, because it's greed, this market, like anything else is a breeding ground for greed. And obviously, those that have |
| 750 | 02:18:41,850 --> 02:18:47,550 | been, you know, just introduced to the marketplace, they've been seeing the market go up for nine days straight. So therefore, if it goes up a little bit |
| 751 | 02:18:47,550 --> 02:18:53,910 | higher, that's when they want to buy. And that's generally what happens is they buy the high the market, okay, and I've been there, I know what it's all about, |
| 752 | 02:18:53,910 --> 02:19:05,220 | and none of it feels like so. And you probably do too, if we had seen market price trade down to a key support level, okay, those that are entering in on |
| 753 | 02:19:05,250 --> 02:19:13,590 | whatever we implied as a buy signal for them, they would immediately put protective sell stuff below the market price. And then obviously, for those that |
| 754 | 02:19:13,590 --> 02:19:24,600 | have been net short, okay, they have their limit orders below market price trying to get out, you know, with their greedy expectations of kidding out near |
| 755 | 02:19:24,630 --> 02:19:33,900 | a very handsome price level of profit from and again, the same guys that have been just introduced to the marketplace, you know, for the last 25 days in the |
| 756 | 02:19:33,900 --> 02:19:40,680 | marketplaces have been saying lower prices. So therefore, if it goes down a little bit farther, then they'll sell short, and they'll have to sell stops down |
| 757 | 02:19:40,680 --> 02:19:48,660 | there because they can't move around the trading desk because they're working at you know, whatever they're doing, you know, you're painting cars. So they want |
| 758 | 02:19:48,660 --> 02:19:59,970 | to have their sell stuff below the marketplace and in many times you see them selling the low of the day. So let's talk about a little bit more detail of it. |
| 759 | 02:20:00,000 --> 02:20:04,890 | How market makers pair orders and how orders stack. |
| 760 | 02:20:06,540 --> 02:20:17,250 | Let's assume for a moment that there is a highly sensitive price level of support or resistance around that 132. Big figure. Now when we look at a big |
| 761 | 02:20:17,250 --> 02:20:27,900 | figure, okay, and before I go any further, this could be a mid figure. Okay. And then obviously, the levels above it being respective in terms of what we have |
| 762 | 02:20:27,900 --> 02:20:37,980 | here as an example. But keeping in true form of the institutional levels we like to follow, which are the big figures, the 20s, the 80s, the small round numbers, |
| 763 | 02:20:38,190 --> 02:20:50,880 | okay, in the mid 50 levels, okay, if price trades up to 132. Don't expect 132 to always simply hold price back. Many times, you'll see price trade up to that |
| 764 | 02:20:50,880 --> 02:21:00,960 | level. And there'll be orders around the 10 level and around the 20 level, many times you'll see price, even if it's going to go lower longer term, many times |
| 765 | 02:21:00,960 --> 02:21:14,220 | they'll sweep price up through the 10s and 20s. And the reason why is because folks like to put their orders at odd numbers and such, okay, but really, the |
| 766 | 02:21:14,220 --> 02:21:23,970 | institutional level traders, they work around raw small round numbers, okay, the 10s, the 20s, they'll they'll use those levels because it allows them to clean |
| 767 | 02:21:23,970 --> 02:21:37,200 | through particular price levels. And maybe you've encountered slippage. Okay, now, you really wanted to get out at 130 205. But maybe they felt good at 132 10 |
| 768 | 02:21:37,920 --> 02:21:47,550 | that slippage, why did they fill you at 132 10? Because that's where their order was for them to execute. So they're going to fill you they're not where you |
| 769 | 02:21:47,550 --> 02:21:57,240 | really want to get out it. Okay. It doesn't happen all the time. No. But obviously, we as retail traders are at the mercy if you will, of what the |
| 770 | 02:21:57,240 --> 02:22:06,780 | dealers are going to give us as an order, okay, maybe you had a trade executed and you exit it or entered. And then you have a re quote later on. Okay, maybe |
| 771 | 02:22:06,780 --> 02:22:19,620 | you got in a short position at 132 even, okay, and then later on, found out that they quoted you 131 95 or 131 90. Okay, that's pretty extreme in terms of |
| 772 | 02:22:19,620 --> 02:22:30,000 | slippage. But if it's economic report, things like that can happen. As a matter of fact, you know, I just recently traded an economic report, and I had seven |
| 773 | 02:22:30,000 --> 02:22:40,530 | pips slippage from where I was trying to get in, and we're actually got filled. So that's the inherent nature of trading in fast, illiquid markets, and they're |
| 774 | 02:22:40,530 --> 02:22:46,770 | gonna fill you where they want to get filled. Okay, so you're gonna be taking the other side of your trade to understand that, if you're dealing through |
| 775 | 02:22:47,670 --> 02:22:57,240 | market maker or an order desk, that's the type of feeling you're going to get with your orders. Okay, but if you think in terms of the big picture of how |
| 776 | 02:22:57,240 --> 02:23:08,160 | these market makers and large bank dealer traders work, they're going to work around these round numbers and always expect them to try to sweep to the next |
| 777 | 02:23:08,160 --> 02:23:16,650 | small little round number because that's generally where they'll take price and it'll clean out all the guys that want to use a stop loss, okay, this maybe sell |
| 778 | 02:23:16,650 --> 02:23:26,160 | short at 132 even want to limit and maybe they saw price dropped down to 131 90. And they're salivating because they think it's going to go to 130. Okay, so they |
| 779 | 02:23:26,160 --> 02:23:36,300 | put your stop loss at 130 203. Okay, well, the dealers know that they're going to take price up and just for good measure, gonna run up to the 132 10 level, |
| 780 | 02:23:36,630 --> 02:23:45,000 | and then a clear down nice block of trades that would have had pending orders resting above it, like we just discussed in a previous slide, and allow them to |
| 781 | 02:23:45,450 --> 02:23:59,490 | promote liquidity, not only for themselves, but other orders they have to do transactions for Alright, let's take a look at an environment where the 132 |
| 782 | 02:23:59,490 --> 02:24:11,100 | perhaps is a clearly discernible resistance level. Okay, and we're going to assume that market price is down here below that particular price level. And |
| 783 | 02:24:11,130 --> 02:24:20,520 | generally, you'll see this type of action, okay, they'll take it up to the 80 level. Okay, and first or retrace, pull off very sharply. Okay. And everybody |
| 784 | 02:24:20,520 --> 02:24:29,880 | understands if you've been looking at the markets in any capacity, that the 80s the 20s in the 50s and four figures are very sensitive psychological numbers, |
| 785 | 02:24:29,970 --> 02:24:38,310 | okay. And if the dealers can bounce price off there, they'll trap a lot of traders thinking okay, that was the high the market then what happens is they'll |
| 786 | 02:24:38,310 --> 02:24:49,380 | reprice okay and get folks that maybe didn't believe that was the high and they think it's still gonna go to 132. They'll more or less, buy that market up. |
| 787 | 02:24:49,410 --> 02:24:57,540 | Okay. But then what I'll do is I'll take the market below the most recent swing low and stop those traders out. So now, the folks that think on the short term |
| 788 | 02:24:57,540 --> 02:25:03,810 | that the price is going to go to 132 are now scared They don't want to get in the market now. So they took those individuals out. |
| 789 | 02:25:05,100 --> 02:25:14,910 | If they were taken out when that recent move down below the recent swing low here, okay, what is below there? They're gonna put up what protective sell, |
| 790 | 02:25:15,420 --> 02:25:24,690 | okay? If the dealers take price down below that, that sell stock becomes a market order do what the sell to market who's going to buy it from the dealers, |
| 791 | 02:25:25,020 --> 02:25:33,990 | the dealers will buy up that pocket of liquidity. Okay. And then they'll reprice and they'll take it up to that 132 figure clearing out the stops, that would |
| 792 | 02:25:33,990 --> 02:25:45,630 | have been resting at the 131 90 for those that went short here. So now, is there anyone short? No? Okay. So where did they? Where does the dealers exit their |
| 793 | 02:25:45,630 --> 02:25:56,160 | position that they accumulated here at the 131 90, or there abouts, because that's about rare, though. Stop Loss on short, the short sellers here would have |
| 794 | 02:25:56,160 --> 02:26:06,390 | their orders resting, so they clear out the pending orders and take it all the way up to the 132 figure. The next repricing comes in the sell off, folks. Okay, |
| 795 | 02:26:06,390 --> 02:26:14,250 | well, this is the top of the marketplace. So let's start selling. Okay, so they go short here. All of a sudden, you'll see the dealers take price back up again, |
| 796 | 02:26:14,280 --> 02:26:22,710 | now clear out the 132. Why? Because the folks have been watching that 132 level, once it trades there one time and starts to trade off. They think that's it. |
| 797 | 02:26:22,740 --> 02:26:32,370 | That's it. support resistance is perfect. It never, it never has any blurry lines. it's crystal clear, laser guided, okay, and price is always going to stop |
| 798 | 02:26:32,370 --> 02:26:41,430 | right on that 00 level. It doesn't guys, you got to have some flexibility. And wait, wait for the shore sign that this thing's gonna turn around. So when they |
| 799 | 02:26:41,430 --> 02:26:51,150 | clear all the way up to the 132 20 level, now, folks that were looking to sell, they're scared. They don't want to get in the market. Now. They don't know |
| 800 | 02:26:51,150 --> 02:26:58,170 | what's going to happen. Why? Because they watch the guys get blown out here. They watch the gods get blown out here. And this creates that pattern three |
| 801 | 02:26:58,170 --> 02:27:10,650 | drives higher, or three Indians as it is in the street smarts book. They'll do a massive repricing, they'll take out the swing low here. Why? Because there may |
| 802 | 02:27:10,650 --> 02:27:20,340 | be traders that were net long in here and got smart and realized it was probably going to move higher. But they don't want those guys in the marketplace either. |
| 803 | 02:27:20,460 --> 02:27:28,830 | Okay, so they're going to drive them individuals as well. did not take price back above that 132 figure or rate at it. Okay. And this is typically when the |
| 804 | 02:27:28,830 --> 02:27:38,550 | market really makes its pattern of going short. Why? Because we have a breakdown in market structure. After we clear out the orders that stack around these key |
| 805 | 02:27:38,550 --> 02:27:48,720 | levels. Then you'll see price do a mass dramatic repricing and take out all short term lows, and anybody that would be net long in that position, and now |
| 806 | 02:27:48,720 --> 02:27:58,950 | they're trapped. The next portion is then they'll get you traders to think okay, this is it. You know, it was a sort of false resistance level. Maybe this was, |
| 807 | 02:27:59,520 --> 02:28:06,690 | you know, one of those patterns where it looked like it was a topic it really wasn't guys. So let's get on board and they'll do a real quick repricing up. |
| 808 | 02:28:07,080 --> 02:28:16,560 | This is where you get the nice optimal trade entry sell short patterns. Okay, and that's the one you want to be on. And then you see the sustained swings, |
| 809 | 02:28:17,130 --> 02:28:27,810 | lower begin. Obviously, like most everything I have, you know, we're not going to go through that whole long winded depiction of how orders are stacked and how |
| 810 | 02:28:28,110 --> 02:28:38,430 | dealers work within these key levels. But assuming that we have a support level and price started up here, much in the same capacity we saw on the selling side, |
| 811 | 02:28:38,460 --> 02:28:42,810 | you can see that unfold on the bullish aspect of trading as well. |