ICT - Sniper Course - 02 - Bootcamp module - Time and Price Theory and Fractals.srt
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-10 10:35
| 1 | 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:10,710 | ICT: Okay folks, we are in the second part of the ICT scout sniper field training guide. And this episode is going to be dealing with boot camp. Okay, |
| 2 | 00:01:10,710 --> 00:01:22,560 | now what are we gonna be covering in this presentation? Well, first we're gonna be reviewing the previous episodes assignment, the mark were referring to time |
| 3 | 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:33,930 | of day and the effects it has on price. We're only looking at the day of the week, and again, its influence over price. We're gonna be covering institutional |
| 4 | 00:01:33,930 --> 00:01:46,620 | orders and pairing of orders. We're gonna be briefly introducing the market makers business model, we're gonna be looking at characteristics of a price |
| 5 | 00:01:46,620 --> 00:02:03,360 | swing, specifically dealing with time. Price, and melding the two with support and resistance. We're gonna discuss price fractals and their role in analysis. |
| 6 | 00:02:05,610 --> 00:02:09,180 | And we're going to give you another homework assignment, price reactions. |
| 7 | 00:02:15,570 --> 00:02:28,740 | Okay, we are looking at a daily screen capture of the Euro USD pair. And this is a daily chart again, it's specifically highlighting a swing in price that we're |
| 8 | 00:02:28,740 --> 00:02:38,730 | going to be dealing with, it's going to be in the latter stages of this price swing. But it's not imperative to understand what caused that swing lower at |
| 9 | 00:02:38,730 --> 00:02:47,790 | this juncture, because we will cover in greater detail all of these types of moves and how we can ferret that type of price action out in later episodes in |
| 10 | 00:02:47,790 --> 00:03:00,480 | the series. But for now, we're going to be dealing specifically with the fiber in this pair, how we can look for turning points and how we can anticipate |
| 11 | 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:09,660 | certain characteristics and price action that repeat over and over again. And I promise you, when you are finished watching this episode, you're gonna have a |
| 12 | 00:03:09,690 --> 00:03:16,620 | far greater understanding of what price action is like, and how you can use it going forward in the new week of forex trading. |
| 13 | 00:03:23,430 --> 00:03:34,440 | Okay, if you remember last episode, I gave you some homework regarding the first week of july of 2013. Now if you're watching this video, and it's a number of |
| 14 | 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:43,650 | years old, I apologize that you got to the party too late. But that's not my fault now as it but we're going to go over some some details here so that we can |
| 15 | 00:03:43,650 --> 00:03:54,630 | at least a digest the the main focal points and how you can use it going forward. These are very generic concepts, they do not fall out of favor, they're |
| 16 | 00:03:54,630 --> 00:04:05,130 | not a fad gimmick indicator. These are essential core tenants to price action. And I promise you if you apply these things, not only just to the fiber pair, |
| 17 | 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:15,960 | but if you look at the cable, and all the other majors and the exotics as well. You'll see these reoccurring themes that take place over and over again, in |
| 18 | 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:25,800 | price action. Now the screen capture we're looking at here is a 15 minute basis. And we're going to digest a lot of information just in this small sample size of |
| 19 | 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:33,660 | price data. But let's look at the second portion of study we gave as part of your assignment in the previous episode. |
| 20 | 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:50,760 | Now we're looking at a price rally. Okay, and in this price swing, we're going to be breaking this specific price swing down and how we can utilize generic |
| 21 | 00:04:50,760 --> 00:05:03,570 | concepts that go along with every facet of smart money trading. Now, again, this is a 15 minute timeframe, but we're going Applying Smart Money concepts to this |
| 22 | 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:11,220 | timeframe, they are based on a higher timeframe, which is where the institutional level traders and banking traders do the majority of their |
| 23 | 00:05:11,220 --> 00:05:12,000 | analysis. |
| 24 | 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:35,220 | Okay, folks, we are looking at the fiber, Euro USD is the daily chart, and this the top or the highest point of the price line that we're going to be analyzing, |
| 25 | 00:05:35,940 --> 00:05:54,000 | and our first sample size of price action. But I want you to keep your eye on what takes place in price. And as price starts to slide down, you'll start to |
| 26 | 00:05:54,000 --> 00:06:03,540 | see a pause in price action here. And you see this is the first bullish candle and this down like now if you look to the left over here, you'll see a small |
| 27 | 00:06:03,540 --> 00:06:16,200 | little consolidation in here. And keep going over to the left, you'll see some old highs, a consolidation with some highs and body two candles, a short term |
| 28 | 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:37,560 | high here and a turning point here, a turning point here prior to that big leg up in price here. Okay, this was the lowest low as price rallied up, it made a |
| 29 | 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:47,940 | high here as well and then started to move lower in a very large price swing, it came down to a previous level of support. Now the reason why I have this level |
| 30 | 00:06:47,940 --> 00:06:58,560 | here is if you look at the body, and wicks of all the candles in here yet the below the wick here, the wick essentially in here, the top of this candles wick, |
| 31 | 00:06:59,610 --> 00:07:11,760 | this Wick here just sat there just a little bit. Again, same here, the bodies of the candles here, okay, and if you look at really essentially it's the 127 70 |
| 32 | 00:07:11,760 --> 00:07:21,210 | level. And price when it comes down to that same price point again, the body of the candle stopped here. Granted, the wick of the candle traded through just a |
| 33 | 00:07:21,210 --> 00:07:30,390 | little bit. Then we had the body of the candle here as well, with a small little wick as well. The body of the candle Here comes right down to that same level |
| 34 | 00:07:30,750 --> 00:07:42,810 | rallies and trades right through one more time and then starts to rally off. Price comes back down makes this smaller short term swing lower. Okay, and I'm |
| 35 | 00:07:42,810 --> 00:07:54,600 | promised I'm taking you somewhere I'm just going over the major price reactions and levels that you would be hunting in your future analysis in your demo |
| 36 | 00:07:54,600 --> 00:08:06,090 | account trading as you develop as a trader. When price bounced off this level, came right back down to the same point or consolidation here. And as price come |
| 37 | 00:08:06,090 --> 00:08:18,270 | down to that same price level, notice we failed to get to that same old low or support level 127 70 price found the new level consolidated and moved out of |
| 38 | 00:08:18,270 --> 00:08:32,640 | that consolidation has started to trade higher. Now this price swing in here Okay, is the basis of this price rally here. Now as price starts to move lower, |
| 39 | 00:08:33,150 --> 00:08:45,510 | we would be looking for areas where we would reasonably expect to see price to stall price bounced here. Now just for illustrative purposes, let us use the |
| 40 | 00:08:45,510 --> 00:09:03,750 | very low the wick here and double check the candle make sure I am in deed on the low the low is 130 58. And we're gonna move our level right to that point making |
| 41 | 00:09:03,750 --> 00:09:19,800 | see this swing high. Remember we talked about in the first episode, a swing high is a high the has a lower high on either side of it. Okay. We have a nice level |
| 42 | 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:35,820 | of support resistance in here. Same thing here, my support resistance, my support resistance. I support resistance. Again, same here. Okay, we have a nice |
| 43 | 00:09:35,820 --> 00:09:48,390 | swing high as well. So this price point, while it is an off even number it could be very easily calibrated to 130 60 level. Okay, which I think is much more |
| 44 | 00:09:48,390 --> 00:10:01,050 | reasonable level to move this line to and what that means is that institutions like to use large, round numbers. They're not so finicky in terms of To get like |
| 45 | 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:15,180 | the the eights and the fours and threes and such, in terms of filling the this use the round numbers to get their orders off on. And I'm just going to key that |
| 46 | 00:10:15,180 --> 00:10:16,710 | in here manually so you can see. |
| 47 | 00:10:19,140 --> 00:10:29,220 | So I'm using 130 60 as a round number, you see it gets right to the high here as well. And again, it doesn't really essentially change too much over here. But |
| 48 | 00:10:29,220 --> 00:10:41,640 | when we get down to a smaller timeframe, it might be more useful to us as we see the levels more closely calibrated to a smaller, round number. Now when price |
| 49 | 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:55,110 | gives a bullish candle here, this by itself indicates a lot of different things. And this episode will not be own, long enough to go into the information that |
| 50 | 00:10:55,110 --> 00:11:07,230 | these types of candles create. But I promise we're going to delve into those things in later episodes. But for now, we're going to be giving a lot of generic |
| 51 | 00:11:07,860 --> 00:11:20,190 | broad ideas about how smart money operates in the marketplace, and how you can more or less fall their coattails and try to hopefully see a profitable swing in |
| 52 | 00:11:20,190 --> 00:11:35,460 | your favor. Now as price continues to move lower. Okay, this same bullish candle, okay, when we cause this bounce in here, something about this level at |
| 53 | 00:11:35,460 --> 00:11:48,360 | 130 60 was a catalyst. Okay. Now institutional level trading, again, revolves around round numbers. So a lot of questions I get through email and if haunting |
| 54 | 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:59,130 | a particular form or such, they will invariably ask me, hey, ICT, can we get a bit more interesting of how it is that you arrive at what would be considered |
| 55 | 00:11:59,130 --> 00:12:08,520 | your key support resistance levels? And what do you mean by institutional levels when you say, price is going to come down to this institution level, or you |
| 56 | 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:18,000 | expect to see particular levels swept? Okay, I'm going to cover that in this module. So that way, you have a greater understanding that way, not only will |
| 57 | 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:26,940 | you understand my videos, when I do reviews and and trade recaps, what I'm referring to, but you're also going to see how to look for it in your own |
| 58 | 00:12:26,940 --> 00:12:41,190 | charts. And you understand what it is specifically that price action is doing and why. So price bounces here, okay? At an old swing high bounces here, now, |
| 59 | 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:54,960 | price trades through it. But if price ever comes back at that same level, that is a potential area of a setup. Okay, so we could look for a selling opportunity |
| 60 | 00:12:54,960 --> 00:13:06,660 | should price get to that same level again in the future, and you can see price trades right up to this level here. The high of this candle comes right in at |
| 61 | 00:13:08,310 --> 00:13:16,920 | 130 59. So we fell one PIP short of the actual round number. But you'll see when we get down to a smaller timeframe, it's really doesn't make that much of a |
| 62 | 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:27,990 | difference, because there's a lot of other factors that will be more beneficial to us. So now we have the next candle here, it sweeps up through it, and then |
| 63 | 00:13:27,990 --> 00:13:40,650 | trades lower and closes on almost a low that the candle price trades right back up into a bullish candle here right into our 130 60. Now the high again on this |
| 64 | 00:13:40,650 --> 00:13:52,320 | candle comes in at 130 73. So we're 13 pips off. So again, we're looking at a daily chart. So if we're going to be just off by 13 pips, and we're looking at |
| 65 | 00:13:52,320 --> 00:14:07,770 | daily ranges, again, these are all full daily bars. That's not bad in terms of highlighting areas of potential setups or bounces and assets, your your |
| 66 | 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:15,540 | framework is going to build upon this. Because it's not about getting the weekly Hein writing only to Friday, where the weekly low riding, you know, either |
| 67 | 00:14:15,540 --> 00:14:22,740 | Friday or getting 1000 pips a month, we're trying to keep up with the next guideline in my concepts. That is not what you're trying to do in the beginning, |
| 68 | 00:14:23,100 --> 00:14:32,400 | what you're trying to do is build a fundamental base of price action. And we're going to build and expound on that each episode and a promise by the end of the |
| 69 | 00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:40,170 | eighth episode, you're going to have a wicked understanding of price action, and you're going to be blowing your socks off. And not only will you be impressing |
| 70 | 00:14:40,170 --> 00:14:42,270 | yourself as you go and deep, |
| 71 | 00:14:42,660 --> 00:14:53,700 | deeper study of price action, but you're going to start seeing by studying the other quote unquote street money or less informed traders that invariably talk |
| 72 | 00:14:54,090 --> 00:15:07,110 | on forums or you see them even in so called expert circles. They really have no Do to talking about, okay. So again, really go through this video module a lot, |
| 73 | 00:15:07,170 --> 00:15:13,050 | not just one sweep isn't going to do it, you're going to be going through this a couple different times. And there's a lot of things, it's going to get rid of |
| 74 | 00:15:13,050 --> 00:15:21,240 | your head the first few times. But I promise by taking notes, yes. Taking notes. Remember, you must be having a notepad next to you as you watch these videos. |
| 75 | 00:15:21,690 --> 00:15:31,500 | Because when we discuss a specific topic, you're going to be wanting to know the details or specifics around that concept so that we, it's not that you have to |
| 76 | 00:15:31,500 --> 00:15:40,620 | go back to this video and see it, or which video it was that specifically talked about this concept of that, you'll know where to get the information from, okay, |
| 77 | 00:15:40,740 --> 00:15:50,850 | and how to apply it without spending too much time chasing after where it is in the fundamental concept behind it all. So again, we have that 130 60 left one |
| 78 | 00:15:50,850 --> 00:16:00,480 | here. Okay, this daily candle trades up into it to squeeze through about 13 pips, and then the next candle, we have a very nice reaction here, trading |
| 79 | 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:11,730 | lower. Now again, all we're looking at is how price is moving on the daily chart. So as we see price moving lower, we just keyed off of a nice price level |
| 80 | 00:16:11,730 --> 00:16:20,040 | here. Now as price is trading lower now, where would we reasonably expect price to trade back down to if it continues at all, because there's no guarantee that |
| 81 | 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:29,490 | price is going to continue lower. But because we have seen price trade off such a nice, move lower, we broke through old highs. So now where we're going to be |
| 82 | 00:16:29,490 --> 00:16:39,780 | looking for old lows, they are found here? And if price trades through that, where do we go next? These lows? And if price was to trade through these, where |
| 83 | 00:16:39,780 --> 00:16:55,920 | would we go next? These lows, okay. And that's what you're looking for, again, a consistently highly successful trader does majority of his analysis on the |
| 84 | 00:16:55,920 --> 00:17:03,360 | higher timeframes, okay? You don't have to spend so much time on the off the charts. And you don't have to spend so much time on the weekly charts, but it's |
| 85 | 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:15,780 | advisable. But certainly spend a lot of time on your daily, your four hour and one hour only if you can't really discern anything. Like right now, if you need |
| 86 | 00:17:15,780 --> 00:17:23,670 | to be trading, short term day trading. That's when you spend a whole lot of time in your alley. But really focus on your four hour and daily because that's where |
| 87 | 00:17:23,670 --> 00:17:32,580 | the banks, the institutional level traders and smart guys, like you're going to try to be in the future by applying these concepts, you're going to be spending |
| 88 | 00:17:32,580 --> 00:17:44,670 | the majority of time doing your analysis on these timeframes. Now it flies in the face of what you're commonly referred to as this is too slow. That's fine. |
| 89 | 00:17:44,970 --> 00:17:56,460 | That's exactly what you want. Because you're going to learn later on this and in this episode, slow is good. Okay. And one of the central tenants to understand |
| 90 | 00:17:56,490 --> 00:18:05,550 | what you should be doing as a trader is understanding what traders are hopefully trying to capitalize on. And that's price movement. Now give you a quick |
| 91 | 00:18:05,550 --> 00:18:21,750 | question, before we go any further. Can you as a retail trader, move the market? No, you can't. Can we as a group of retail traders move the market? Sure, on a |
| 92 | 00:18:21,750 --> 00:18:31,890 | short term basis, but not very much. And we're talking about a minor little blip in price action. So who is it that moves price, you can take price from these |
| 93 | 00:18:31,890 --> 00:18:43,260 | levels here, all the way down here. They are the large dominant players or what is commonly referred to as the smart money. Same entity takes price from these |
| 94 | 00:18:43,260 --> 00:18:57,000 | levels up to here. And vice versa, from this high, down to this low. And this low to these highs this high down to these lows. So the question begs is this. |
| 95 | 00:18:58,349 --> 00:19:09,779 | If you're not spending time trying to learn what it is that they do, okay, on a larger timeframes? Aren't you really shooting in the dark? I mean, you're really |
| 96 | 00:19:09,779 --> 00:19:18,719 | not giving yourself any real, measurable chance you're stacking the odds against yourself, if you're looking at timeframes less than 16 minutes all the time. |
| 97 | 00:19:19,439 --> 00:19:27,059 | Because there's no there's no neon sign jumping out on your chart saying, Okay, this is the buy. Now, you may believe that's the case. But I can assure you that |
| 98 | 00:19:27,059 --> 00:19:37,949 | is not how it works. If you spend the time in the exercises that we're going to be covering in this episode, really roll your sleeves up, get yourself some time |
| 99 | 00:19:38,069 --> 00:19:47,939 | in front of the charts and spend some study not looking for trades. You want to be studying what price has done in the past, why it's behave that way. And I |
| 100 | 00:19:47,939 --> 00:19:57,869 | promise you will activate your reticular activating system where it basically tells you every time you see something that you've grown accustomed to see your |
| 101 | 00:19:57,959 --> 00:20:05,249 | your brain will immediately allow that to come Come into your mind, and you'll receive it. And you'll say, Okay, the last time I saw this happened, this is |
| 102 | 00:20:05,249 --> 00:20:14,609 | what transpired as a later effect. If you don't first train your mind to see what it is that price has done in the past, and it repeats over and over and |
| 103 | 00:20:14,609 --> 00:20:23,699 | over again, invariably, you're going to be a better trader because of it. Now, I'm not saying better trader is consistently profitable. That's nothing that I |
| 104 | 00:20:23,699 --> 00:20:32,969 | can promise. But I can promise that you have a much greater grasp on what price action is doing. So then you can start applying some concepts, either from your |
| 105 | 00:20:32,969 --> 00:20:43,949 | own repertoire or your toolbox that will assist you and making trade decisions. Now, again, I'm not advocating you use real money, learn to develop into the |
| 106 | 00:20:43,949 --> 00:20:52,259 | trader that you aspire to be with these ideas to stimulate your development. Again, I don't want to credit for your success. And I don't want to credit for |
| 107 | 00:20:52,259 --> 00:21:01,979 | your losses either. So please be responsible with the information I'm presenting with you in these modules, because again, I'm not acting as an advisor. But I'm |
| 108 | 00:21:01,979 --> 00:21:09,119 | just showing you the things that I do in my own trading and what I've done for almost two decades. And I promise if you spend some time with it, you're going |
| 109 | 00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:23,939 | to see some value in it. So we have this 130 60 level in here. Okay, and price starts to trade off. And as price moves lower, again, we're eyeballing these |
| 110 | 00:21:23,939 --> 00:21:34,409 | levels in here. Now, as price starts to move into these lows, we could reasonably expect to see pauses bounces, but you can see there's a very large |
| 111 | 00:21:34,619 --> 00:21:49,079 | acceleration moving lower price gets a small little bounce in here, this little bullish candle, okay, and that's on the heels of these lows here, okay. But the |
| 112 | 00:21:49,079 --> 00:22:00,419 | price eventually trades all the way down, right into this 127 70 level, again, which is that level we have over here, and these lows here, and you'll see how |
| 113 | 00:22:00,419 --> 00:22:13,139 | price reacts there. Now. There, there really isn't any magic to this isn't simply understanding what the institutions have done in the past at that |
| 114 | 00:22:13,139 --> 00:22:23,429 | particular level. And when price comes back down to it, we anticipate the same reaction or similar reaction, in deference to what price is going to do. Next, |
| 115 | 00:22:24,089 --> 00:22:29,729 | we don't have a crystal ball, we don't know for sure what's going to happen, there's no guarantee that it's going to always transpire like this. That's why |
| 116 | 00:22:29,729 --> 00:22:40,889 | we use stop loss orders. And we use sound prudent risk management modules, models, rather, where it gives us a shield. Okay, we're not, we're not expecting |
| 117 | 00:22:40,889 --> 00:22:49,619 | perfection, we're not expecting to know every single swing in the marketplace, we're not expected to not be stopped out in trades, we're expecting to be more |
| 118 | 00:22:49,619 --> 00:23:01,889 | consistently positive than negative. And permitting ourselves to have that occasional and maybe even string of incorrect. I'll use that term for now. |
| 119 | 00:23:01,889 --> 00:23:12,359 | Because I don't want to talk in terms of profitability yet. In terms of correctness, in our analysis, okay, that's where you want to be focused on now |
| 120 | 00:23:12,389 --> 00:23:23,999 | you want to be looking at, are you doing the same thing consistently over and over and over again, with a large sample size of data that supports this theory, |
| 121 | 00:23:24,299 --> 00:23:29,609 | okay, and we're gonna give you a whole lot of things to look at, that you can study on your own, because I see this also. |
| 122 | 00:23:31,799 --> 00:23:39,959 | If you're new to trading, and you have your charts open, maybe you're at work or maybe you come home from work and needs, you know, over the table tennis table |
| 123 | 00:23:39,959 --> 00:23:49,289 | yet your laptop or iPad or whatever it is you may be using to look at charts. And you're looking at these price charts and you're staring at it like a deer in |
| 124 | 00:23:49,289 --> 00:23:58,289 | headlights, trying to figure out what it is that you should be seeing. A lot of that fog is going to be lifted. Okay, won't be completely eradicated but it's |
| 125 | 00:23:58,289 --> 00:24:10,439 | gonna be lifted in this episode. Okay, so you can clearly see just by this simple approach of looking at the higher timeframe, charts here. Look at the |
| 126 | 00:24:10,439 --> 00:24:19,529 | nice price moves here from this same level with is highlighted here. Okay, if we look in terms of pips, now again, we're not expecting to get the entire move |
| 127 | 00:24:19,529 --> 00:24:29,579 | guys to please don't build that as an expectation on your part. But if you look at that move from that level down to this level, that's 292 pips, that's pretty |
| 128 | 00:24:29,579 --> 00:24:40,619 | respectable. Now again, these are all daily candles, so it's less than a month. So if you break that down, it's pretty. It's a pretty good month. I know you're |
| 129 | 00:24:40,619 --> 00:24:49,019 | probably scratching Hey, wait a minute, I'm not making 500 pips a week. No. I don't shoot for those types of levels in terms of pips, because there's no |
| 130 | 00:24:49,019 --> 00:25:00,269 | guarantee you're gonna get that high. Two. It puts an an realistic level of expectation, as a trader should not be doing as they're developing either. A |
| 131 | 00:25:00,269 --> 00:25:09,929 | seasoned pro, I'm not gonna, you know, well, yeah, I guess I could guess would be able to be classified as a seasoned pro me almost two decades of doing it. |
| 132 | 00:25:10,949 --> 00:25:23,159 | Not specifically for expert trading, I think I would fall in the category as a seasoned pro. And I don't have these high level expectations that new traders |
| 133 | 00:25:23,759 --> 00:25:36,779 | are expecting. And I, I consider myself pretty avid in terms of price action, understanding, and I have a good feel what price is trying to do in any market |
| 134 | 00:25:36,779 --> 00:25:44,339 | any timeframe. But it doesn't mean I'm in there every single day, 15 times a day? Because the common question is, is okay, once you understand that you |
| 135 | 00:25:44,339 --> 00:25:50,729 | understand more and more and more of it, then you can start trading more in terms of levers, you can take more trades, and therefore, you're going to be |
| 136 | 00:25:50,729 --> 00:26:00,299 | super rich, and you can be the next George Soros. And that's not what happens, okay? Because what happens is, you eventually grow comfortable with the fact |
| 137 | 00:26:00,299 --> 00:26:08,699 | that you don't have to be in front the charts all the time, life is out there. And I like being a part of it. So don't think because you're learning all these |
| 138 | 00:26:08,699 --> 00:26:17,729 | concepts that you should be spending even more time trading. In fact, I'm hopefully gonna take your hand away from the keyboard and the mouse, so you |
| 139 | 00:26:17,729 --> 00:26:24,959 | don't trade all the time, and you're just gonna be looking for these really cherry setups. And that will allow you to go to the market and pull out when |
| 140 | 00:26:24,959 --> 00:26:34,439 | it's highly stacked in your favor versus what majority of you guys do. As new traders, you turn the chart on simply because you sat down after work, it's time |
| 141 | 00:26:34,439 --> 00:26:44,939 | to make money. It doesn't work like that, guys. Okay, so, again, this level here, something we could arrive at, simply based on old highs and lows, and |
| 142 | 00:26:44,939 --> 00:26:52,019 | again, using the daily timeframe. Okay. And there's a whole lot of other things that we're going to talk about not in this module, but when we get down to |
| 143 | 00:26:52,019 --> 00:27:01,319 | actually understanding how it is that we take trades and entries and such, we're going to get in here and start breaking down these little points of which you |
| 144 | 00:27:01,319 --> 00:27:14,519 | can use to fine tune a specific entry point. And reasonable expectations and of why where and why price is going to bounce and move extrapolated. Price surges |
| 145 | 00:27:14,519 --> 00:27:21,479 | and, and drops. And like this here, again, we just covered this one here, and we're not going to beat it to death because we are going to be breaking down |
| 146 | 00:27:21,479 --> 00:27:33,149 | this little section of price action. But moving ahead, you can see price does have a very, very aggressive move higher. And then we start to consolidate look |
| 147 | 00:27:33,149 --> 00:27:42,839 | at the wicks. Okay, see the wicks, they're all stabbing through that 3060 level, but the bodies are having a hard time making any measurable move lower, you see |
| 148 | 00:27:42,839 --> 00:28:02,129 | that and watch what happens. This same level now, okay, becomes an inversion level where it was support here, it invert, now it's changed its role, and now |
| 149 | 00:28:02,129 --> 00:28:13,109 | acts as resistance. And as price comes right through it again here. Now on the northern side of it again, so now it resumes its role of what support. Okay, so |
| 150 | 00:28:13,109 --> 00:28:24,479 | this tells you that the institutions are doing some pretty significant dealings around this level here. Okay, so as price moves away from here, and if you see |
| 151 | 00:28:24,479 --> 00:28:31,049 | any kind of type of retracement here, this is when you can start to hunt a buy opportunity because now we can trust |
| 152 | 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:47,850 | with a certain measure of expectation that this has now gone to potentially hold price above that 130 60 level. The price rally up here, this level here becomes |
| 153 | 00:28:47,850 --> 00:28:59,400 | sensitive, because this old low here, which is these old highs here. Okay. So again, we're looking and studying not just, okay, well, I'm going to grab this |
| 154 | 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:07,320 | high and this low. And if you just look at these highs and lows, it's this low and this high, until price gets these levels a long time you're waiting for, |
| 155 | 00:29:08,250 --> 00:29:13,380 | you're gonna have to you're gonna be doing a whole lot of trading. So what are you gonna do, you're gonna chase systems, you're gonna chase something that you |
| 156 | 00:29:13,380 --> 00:29:24,810 | know, is more active. Okay. And that's problematic for a new trader because it's not about how many trades you take. It's the quality of the trades that you |
| 157 | 00:29:24,810 --> 00:29:36,690 | take. Okay, so now, when price moves away from this level here, we could start looking for other specific price points that will aid us and support resistance. |
| 158 | 00:29:37,710 --> 00:29:49,980 | Now, these old highs here, price trades right up into them again, okay, and then trades off. Now. Again, it's not about capturing every single, major high and |
| 159 | 00:29:49,980 --> 00:30:00,990 | low. You just want trading opportunities. Just in this price swing here's 191 pips, just this 191 pips and we're talking about a week's worth of trading. Then |
| 160 | 00:30:00,990 --> 00:30:21,360 | price does what it snaps off again, what did this rally take action off of see this high here? See this swing low. In here, you have a lot of body candles. And |
| 161 | 00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:39,690 | then boom, here, you see price rally up, price punches through this high in this high and gives us a reaction here, and then trades back into this candle as |
| 162 | 00:30:39,690 --> 00:30:52,620 | well. We're gonna be looking at two sections of this market. And we're gonna be looking at this move here. And we're gonna be looking at this move down here. So |
| 163 | 00:30:52,620 --> 00:31:05,940 | we're gonna be looking at trending environment, which is what this says here, and a potential reversal area. And we're gonna be looking at this specific price |
| 164 | 00:31:05,940 --> 00:31:19,140 | sample here. And it's a little bit different characteristic of this, that will not be so notable here. Okay, but we'll talk about it in, in greater detail in |
| 165 | 00:31:19,140 --> 00:31:35,850 | other episodes. But let's For now, let's take a look at this section and price action first. Okay, we are in that small little section of price. And what I'm |
| 166 | 00:31:35,850 --> 00:31:38,970 | gonna do is I'm just gonna pull up |
| 167 | 00:31:44,430 --> 00:32:00,120 | this area here, so you can see. Now, the first episode, I talked about, looking at the first of July, to the bout the ninth of July, okay. And I wanted you to |
| 168 | 00:32:00,150 --> 00:32:11,400 | study what price was doing in all this sample size of data. Now, again, we were talking about that section, this is where price was moving down, trading Lower, |
| 169 | 00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:21,600 | lower, lower aggressively, again, off that 130 60 level that we noted. And again, it's an add that level back here so you can see it. Okay, and this is |
| 170 | 00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:33,450 | that daily move where it trades right up into it, and then had bearish move lower. Okay, and then we started to move lower, and lower and lower. Because we |
| 171 | 00:32:33,450 --> 00:32:49,440 | study the higher timeframe, we can discern where the institutions and large traders are more apt to muscle, if you will, the price of a particular market |
| 172 | 00:32:49,440 --> 00:33:00,510 | one direction or the other. You as a retail trader me as a retail trader, I can't move the market, I have to rely on the entities that are large enough that |
| 173 | 00:33:00,510 --> 00:33:14,790 | their orders and their buying and selling pull price out of the current status that it's at right now. For instance, when price is trading around that 130 60 |
| 174 | 00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:19,920 | level in here, let me fix this level here. |
| 175 | 00:33:24,990 --> 00:33:36,510 | When it's trading here, large institutions come in and he put big orders through, okay, but they don't put all their orders in at one time, they have to |
| 176 | 00:33:36,510 --> 00:33:47,160 | work that order in because they're not like you and I were we're hoping to trade, you know, 100,000 of Euro, okay, they're not worried about making $10 a |
| 177 | 00:33:47,160 --> 00:34:00,300 | pip either moving massive blocks of price orders that hopefully can be filled by before price starts to move away. So as price moves into these levels, they're |
| 178 | 00:34:00,300 --> 00:34:12,000 | putting small pieces in at a time. Okay, why did they do that? What is it specifically that they're trying to avoid? Much like anybody else, they want to |
| 179 | 00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:26,160 | get a good price. But because they're smart money, and they're on an institutional level, they are huge. Okay. For instance, let's take a step back |
| 180 | 00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:38,550 | conceptually looking at the market. Okay, the Forex market you're in end up as a new trader. Okay. We have a very childlike perspective of this is like a video |
| 181 | 00:34:38,550 --> 00:34:50,820 | game. Or this is this is an adventure. Okay, or this is going to be very fun. This is gonna be my new hobby. And we'll stick with a childlike theme. Okay, so |
| 182 | 00:34:50,850 --> 00:35:05,430 | this represents forex. Looks inviting, doesn't just want to jump in there and have a splash But we're going to use this analogy, this small little pole here |
| 183 | 00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:19,530 | that will represent the market. Okay? The arena is the pool, okay? And price is the water, we can get in that pool. And we can make little splashes around, okay |
| 184 | 00:35:19,530 --> 00:35:34,470 | as retail. But that water will not be displaced by retail traders will make small little minor little blips, okay, like you see here. Okay. But when smart |
| 185 | 00:35:34,470 --> 00:35:44,130 | money gets involved, okay, they're like that elephant in the room, you can't really hide him, he's standing right there in front of you. Okay, imagine if |
| 186 | 00:35:44,130 --> 00:35:56,340 | that same elephant now decides it wants to join the pool party? What are you going to have, you're going to have a large displacement of water, they cannot |
| 187 | 00:35:56,340 --> 00:36:11,070 | hide it. Okay, they are invariably going to be noticed, if you understand their footprints, okay. As price trades up to this level at 130 60 level, it's trading |
| 188 | 00:36:11,070 --> 00:36:21,570 | off, it trades through it again, an industry it's off, it trades through it again, and then trades off. See this is the first telltale sign that somebody on |
| 189 | 00:36:21,570 --> 00:36:30,930 | the big level. Okay, we don't need to know who specifically but we just know that somebody want a larger perspective, is now getting involved with this |
| 190 | 00:36:30,930 --> 00:36:40,980 | market. And what are they doing? They're shorting. Okay, they're becoming sellers, at an at a level now that we discerned on a daily chart, this is |
| 191 | 00:36:41,010 --> 00:36:50,970 | probably going to be an area that sensitive, and price comes up stops right on a dime here and trades off a little bit. Now what's happening is, they'll put |
| 192 | 00:36:50,970 --> 00:37:01,500 | orders in, they'll sell a little bit and sell a little bit and sell, sell, sell, sell. And eventually, when they knew they can put their last bit of their trade |
| 193 | 00:37:01,500 --> 00:37:11,910 | on. Okay. They will just stack their orders are all in this level. And it may be a little bit above it a little bit below it. But they're giant generally trying |
| 194 | 00:37:11,910 --> 00:37:22,830 | to get an average price around that 130 60 level. Okay, it may be that 130 50 level as well, because it's a half full figure minifigure level. So that may be |
| 195 | 00:37:22,830 --> 00:37:31,800 | the price level they're actually working to. But as price moves above, okay, you can see how every time it does is around that level is look at this whole price |
| 196 | 00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:43,410 | action in here, you can see that this is a failure to run above this old high. Okay. Now, when we see price trade off, I guess it fills in all that price |
| 197 | 00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:55,530 | decline like it does here. Okay, this is smart money trying to get that same price action, they put a large block on here. Now, their liquidity is limited to |
| 198 | 00:37:55,530 --> 00:38:07,770 | whatever's there at the time. So if there isn't a large pool of buyers here, okay, there will be a issue for them to get the rest of their orders off. So |
| 199 | 00:38:07,770 --> 00:38:18,030 | what they'll do is they'll put small, and again, to us, it would be large, but to them, it's small blocks to get their overall average price of their net short |
| 200 | 00:38:18,030 --> 00:38:24,990 | position that they want to be establishing. Once it's established, okay, price will do what? |
| 201 | 00:38:26,490 --> 00:38:33,630 | Drop because there will not be any more buyers for the other side of their trade. Okay, there's no more buyers. So what's going to happen is it's going to |
| 202 | 00:38:33,630 --> 00:38:47,160 | create a heaviness in the marketplace. So now the net selling will take a larger toll on price action. And as price starts to trade back down. These every little |
| 203 | 00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:57,810 | rally in here, okay, will be new selling opportunities. Now, many times you'll see traders see these rallies here and you'll chase that. How many times have |
| 204 | 00:38:57,810 --> 00:39:04,770 | you done that? See this type of thing here, look at this man's rallying up, about a chase it, let me buy this, this is probably going to go through these |
| 205 | 00:39:04,770 --> 00:39:13,020 | levels here, it's going to go through these levels, it's probably gonna keep on going and maybe we'll see 131 50 or whatever else the guy in the forums are on |
| 206 | 00:39:13,020 --> 00:39:22,980 | the internet was talking about how it's going to go there. Because they're cool little indicator sets. Has nothing to do any of that. Okay? If you start looking |
| 207 | 00:39:22,980 --> 00:39:41,910 | at how prices now moving lower, okay, you can see they're rapidly moving price to a specific price point where, remember that 127 70 level on a daily chart |
| 208 | 00:39:42,660 --> 00:39:58,470 | that we looked at. Let's put that in right here. Sorry if I'm boring you guys, because, you know, this isn't sexy. And it wasn't sexy. The first time I learned |
| 209 | 00:39:58,470 --> 00:40:08,370 | all this stuff either in fact I ignored it. I said this is, this is so boring, it has nothing to do with making money I want to get in and get out. Okay? Had I |
| 210 | 00:40:08,370 --> 00:40:20,520 | understood what I understand now. Okay, and if you're struggling with this right now, if you're falling asleep, try to really get this point. If you can't grasp |
| 211 | 00:40:20,700 --> 00:40:37,020 | this concept here, wild success will evade you. Consistent levels of success will evade you. Sure, you might have moments of profitability where you have a |
| 212 | 00:40:37,020 --> 00:40:45,720 | string of winners, but anybody can do that. If you have a career of consistency, then you're now you're talking, okay? Because you're going to be doing what? |
| 213 | 00:40:45,990 --> 00:40:55,050 | You're not expecting to be smart. Okay. Does it take a certain level of understanding? Certainly, but you're not trying to be a genius. Okay, I'm not a |
| 214 | 00:40:55,050 --> 00:41:05,670 | market Maven. I'm not in here. Understanding every detail or fundamental driving force behind all these moves, but I understand by looking at price action, |
| 215 | 00:41:06,030 --> 00:41:15,270 | what's the psychology behind it all? And that's what we're dealing with in this episode, because this is one of those Central Market tenants that just is |
| 216 | 00:41:15,270 --> 00:41:25,830 | glossed over in text, oh, well, you have to understand market structure, you have to understand market dynamics, internal pinnings of the market. Okay. And |
| 217 | 00:41:25,890 --> 00:41:37,290 | that was the actual last thing, the internal pinnings of the market. That was an expression I learned from Larry Williams, and the termux. intrigued me. But he |
| 218 | 00:41:37,290 --> 00:41:46,350 | didn't really go into great detail as to what the hell he was talking about, until you spend a lot more time and money in his work. And I'm not sure if it |
| 219 | 00:41:46,350 --> 00:41:56,640 | was planned, because He is an educator by trade. But he is a successful trader as well. So, you know, one could argue is it really meant to be learned on one |
| 220 | 00:41:56,640 --> 00:42:08,010 | time? Who knows, I don't know. But all I know is, if you spend time understanding these ideas that we're expressing here, you will be far, far |
| 221 | 00:42:08,010 --> 00:42:18,540 | greater in terms of a price action trader, then you learn in books or on your own, because you just don't learn this stuff. Okay, just by turning on the |
| 222 | 00:42:18,540 --> 00:42:27,420 | computer and go on to the internet, unless you're watching my channel, plug plug. So anyway, let's get back to what we're looking at specifically in here. |
| 223 | 00:42:27,990 --> 00:42:41,640 | Now, the first decline here and trades right back up into this level. Note at this price drop takes out a major, not major, but a significant swing here, as |
| 224 | 00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:53,790 | we trade into that level. Now, again, the main focal point is the higher timeframe key level that 130 60 level, okay? We don't go to the lower |
| 225 | 00:42:53,790 --> 00:43:04,860 | timeframes, hunting a pattern, or a signal or setup, and then try to find the level that supports that notion. That's not how we're doing this. Okay, you |
| 226 | 00:43:04,860 --> 00:43:13,920 | start on the higher timeframe chart, and you find key levels, okay, that are obvious. Because if they're obvious, that means it takes all the guesswork out. |
| 227 | 00:43:13,950 --> 00:43:16,830 | Now, it may take some patience on your part. |
| 228 | 00:43:18,570 --> 00:43:27,300 | That's really word p patients. The long and short of this is you're going to need to exercise a whole lot of patience, because until price gets to these |
| 229 | 00:43:27,300 --> 00:43:38,520 | higher timeframe key levels, you aren't going to see institutional sponsorship behind the moves. Okay, unless you find a move like we're describing here, where |
| 230 | 00:43:38,850 --> 00:43:49,860 | we have a level note in our timeframe, and another level based on that same time frame that is a higher level support level. So between these two levels here, we |
| 231 | 00:43:49,860 --> 00:44:01,080 | don't have a whole lot in terms of higher timeframe support long lines that you would really expect to see price turn around a dime. Okay, now we do have |
| 232 | 00:44:01,590 --> 00:44:13,740 | intermediate term swing lows here. Okay. And we have short term swing lows here that cause pauses in the marketplace. Okay. But we're not focusing on the short |
| 233 | 00:44:13,740 --> 00:44:25,170 | term. We're trying to train our eyes to see the intermediate term price swings. Okay. So now let's take a closer look as to what's taking place in here. We're |
| 234 | 00:44:25,170 --> 00:44:38,850 | going to introduce the time of day and what we're going to do is we're just going to highlight with some arrows, okay. We're going to look at |
| 235 | 00:44:43,890 --> 00:44:53,310 | specific little areas where price meets significant price. highs and lows. |
| 236 | 00:44:58,949 --> 00:45:11,339 | Okay, and What I'm doing is because on the higher time frame, we had already established a bearish tone to the market. In other words, we were expecting this |
| 237 | 00:45:11,339 --> 00:45:21,419 | level to be sensitive, and that we would expect to see price moving lower. Okay? And where would it be low moving lower towards this level down here because it |
| 238 | 00:45:21,419 --> 00:45:33,149 | would be the next higher level timeframe support level. So we have a whole lot of range to work between, okay, and this gets to the central tenant of |
| 239 | 00:45:33,419 --> 00:45:45,929 | directional bias because a lot of traders, it just escapes them. And it's simply because they're expecting it to be. Again, real easy to determine, because |
| 240 | 00:45:45,959 --> 00:45:52,979 | seven, look at the chart, well, you have to go and spend some time on a higher timeframe because that's where it's going to tell you. So we have a range of 291 |
| 241 | 00:45:52,979 --> 00:46:05,909 | pips between the high here and the low here, these two higher timeframe levels. So 290 pips, Now watch what happens, we're going to be looking at, oops, let me |
| 242 | 00:46:05,909 --> 00:46:13,799 | get the rest of my highs in here. And |
| 243 | 00:46:20,790 --> 00:46:39,120 | okay, so we have highs represented here. Okay, and we're gonna be looking for things that are generically repeating. Okay, so we're going to introduce also |
| 244 | 00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:55,200 | support resistance. But before that, we have to break our chart down into time and data week. Now the double lines represents Sunday. So this vertical line to |
| 245 | 00:46:55,200 --> 00:47:03,930 | this vertical line represents trading for that week on a Monday, from this vertical line to this vertical line represents Tuesday, this vertical line to |
| 246 | 00:47:03,930 --> 00:47:16,830 | this vertical line is Wednesday. And this is Thursday trading and then Friday, then we go into a new week on Sunday. On your notepad, right, this very, very |
| 247 | 00:47:16,830 --> 00:47:30,810 | big, okay, and underline it in bearish market environments. Okay, what I mean by bearish market environments, if the daily chart is poised to move lower, you |
| 248 | 00:47:30,810 --> 00:47:46,680 | have a 70% chance of seeing the higher that weak form by Tuesday's London open. Okay, so if you have a bearish expectation on the marketplace, expect the high |
| 249 | 00:47:46,680 --> 00:47:57,900 | the weak to form by Tuesday's London open. Now sometimes you may get that weird, crazy move that will take out Tuesday's high with Wednesday. And that may be |
| 250 | 00:47:57,900 --> 00:48:10,770 | because of a major market moving indicator or report that comes out. And that's going to be that one wildcard event where you sure you may have been in a |
| 251 | 00:48:10,770 --> 00:48:18,120 | profitable trade. And if you didn't take any profits as you went down, going into Wednesday's trading before it trades and runs your stop or runs out of your |
| 252 | 00:48:18,150 --> 00:48:27,570 | position you they're going to happen. And I can't, I can't I have not been able to find a way to avoid those types of things. Okay, but by far and large, if |
| 253 | 00:48:27,570 --> 00:48:34,440 | you'd look at when markets are trading softer and moving lower, based on the higher time frame, again, we're looking we're specifically dealing with the |
| 254 | 00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:45,570 | daily chart here, okay, but you can also move down to the four hour but really only if it's really not clear to you on a daily So again, the daily or the four |
| 255 | 00:48:45,570 --> 00:48:53,610 | hour that's where your higher timeframe, key support resistance and bias is determined from because we're looking at these higher level timeframe support |
| 256 | 00:48:53,610 --> 00:49:04,650 | resistance levels that the institutional traders are going to be keying off of. Okay. So again with the notion that this markets moving lower, okay, we would |
| 257 | 00:49:04,650 --> 00:49:16,410 | really like to see the high the weak form on Tuesdays by Tuesday's long and open or Wednesdays London open at the very latest okay? doesn't mean you can't see |
| 258 | 00:49:16,410 --> 00:49:25,320 | the high the weak form on Monday, it just means that a large percentage of the time you'll start to see the high forming for that particular week by Tuesday's |
| 259 | 00:49:25,320 --> 00:49:33,000 | London open. Okay, and you can see that is the event here. Okay, and I promise you if is the first time you heard this, it sounds like a whole lot of |
| 260 | 00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:41,850 | hindsight. hindsight mumbo jumbo it's as to perfectly cherry pick. Go back over the charts yourself, guys. Don't take my word on it. Okay, study it. That's how |
| 261 | 00:49:41,850 --> 00:49:50,040 | you get better at this. dig into it. Okay, when bullish market structures suggesting higher prices on daily chart, look and see if the the low of the week |
| 262 | 00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:59,130 | wasn't formed on Tuesday, okay, and the times that it isn't, it's on Monday or Wednesday. And what does that what does that mean? That means a whole lot as |
| 263 | 00:49:59,130 --> 00:50:09,120 | we're going to discuss here. We see the high form for this week on Tuesday. Okay, and as price trades up to that point, it's coming off of this low here. |
| 264 | 00:50:09,360 --> 00:50:20,250 | Okay, so we have this low as a reference point. And it'd be nice if we could get that on the low before it was drug away. Let's put that back where it belongs. |
| 265 | 00:50:20,910 --> 00:50:33,780 | Okay, and what we're going to do is we're going to draw this all the way through the week. Okay, because this level is sensitive, because it's a nice swing low, |
| 266 | 00:50:34,110 --> 00:50:45,750 | going into a key level and trade it off. Even this little bounce in here is tradable. But we are focused on being what a seller because of what the premises |
| 267 | 00:50:45,750 --> 00:50:54,390 | that we have seen price rate up to this 130 60 level on a daily chart, as we discussed earlier in this episode. And as trade as price trades down and starts |
| 268 | 00:50:54,390 --> 00:51:04,260 | to have these bounces, we do not get all excited and frothing at the mouth, thinking okay, now it's going to trade higher, and we want to be higher. Okay. |
| 269 | 00:51:05,010 --> 00:51:09,930 | Think classic chart patterns. Does this not look like a bull flag? |
| 270 | 00:51:11,489 --> 00:51:19,229 | Okay, price rallies up consolidates. And it's even doing what finding old support? See here, see the support? See the support? And what do they teach us |
| 271 | 00:51:19,229 --> 00:51:28,049 | in a textbook? three points of contact confirms the support level, right? You don't think the dealers know that stuff? They know what you're going to do? |
| 272 | 00:51:28,469 --> 00:51:40,289 | They're going to hold price here. Okay, and allow what orders to stack up? What kind of orders are going to stack up by orders? who's buying retail? The less |
| 273 | 00:51:40,289 --> 00:51:52,739 | informed traders? Okay. Well, if they're buying it, who's providing the other side of the trade? The Smart Money? Why? Yep, the smart money, they're selling |
| 274 | 00:51:52,739 --> 00:52:05,489 | it to them. Lock stock and barrel. Okay, who's gonna win armwrestling match the elephant, or the child, the little kid in the swimming pool? It's going to be |
| 275 | 00:52:05,489 --> 00:52:20,039 | elephant. When Alvin gets in that pool, boom, the kid is taken completely out. And the water is displaced. So what do we see? displacement. Okay, price is now |
| 276 | 00:52:20,039 --> 00:52:29,879 | taken driven lower. Okay. Those that would have been trading, what would be whatever their idea of this is a climax reversal or something along the lines |
| 277 | 00:52:29,879 --> 00:52:38,309 | that would support a buying indication here. And again, we're not arguing or making any case for that. But we're just going to assume for a moment that |
| 278 | 00:52:38,879 --> 00:52:50,099 | somebody out there in the retail world assumed at that level was probably a good area to buy. So if they bought here, where would their stop loss be right below |
| 279 | 00:52:50,099 --> 00:53:00,689 | that. Okay, so price is driven, where to where the liquidity is going to be here. Okay. So here we have price trade down and trade right back up to what |
| 280 | 00:53:01,259 --> 00:53:12,629 | this level now becomes a nother selling opportunity, who's going to sell some more of the smart money. So they're going to put some more their orders in, and |
| 281 | 00:53:12,629 --> 00:53:26,219 | then boom, it rides at my lower, okay. This short term swing low here, because we're not drawing levels on it. Okay. You can look at a lower five minute chart |
| 282 | 00:53:26,219 --> 00:53:33,749 | and see even greater dynamic support resistance levels, but I'm using the 15 minute chart simply because you'll learn later on that your trade setups really |
| 283 | 00:53:33,749 --> 00:53:47,309 | going to form on this timeframe. But we're gonna keep it uniform and keep the continuity going. And we're going to use this slow here, price trades up to |
| 284 | 00:53:47,309 --> 00:53:56,579 | there. And once we both blow through it, we trade through it again. Okay, but we come right back up this old swing low here. So I could have another level but to |
| 285 | 00:53:56,579 --> 00:54:05,699 | keep it clean on the chart, I'm gonna keep it you know, just like you have here. Don't expect perfection in terms of your support resistance levels, sometimes |
| 286 | 00:54:05,699 --> 00:54:16,739 | they'll knock your socks off and be sued specifically. you right to the minute on on the PIP. But we're only talking about here 14 pips in terms of variance. |
| 287 | 00:54:16,979 --> 00:54:27,299 | So again, that's half less than half of our normal stop losses. Again, for those who don't know, I usually trade around with a 30 PIP stop loss. And again, we'll |
| 288 | 00:54:27,299 --> 00:54:40,529 | understand later on why I use that later on again, not now. So we move into a new week. Okay, price rallies up and this little pause here and turn down |
| 289 | 00:54:40,529 --> 00:54:52,349 | happens where look over here. See that? Okay, so price trades down. Okay, find some short term support, which we're not going to look at because it's gonna be |
| 290 | 00:54:52,349 --> 00:55:04,469 | on the five minute chart you can do that on your own rallies through okay and does what blows out A swing high. Why? Because maybe at this point, some guys |
| 291 | 00:55:04,469 --> 00:55:15,329 | have figured out this is in a down move. Okay, so they're going to be doing what they're gonna be selling. Yeah, those guys sometimes in the street, okay, get it |
| 292 | 00:55:15,329 --> 00:55:27,959 | right. But do you think the elephant really once I'm in the pool with them? No. Okay, so what's going to happen? Well, they're going to be short. Okay? And |
| 293 | 00:55:27,959 --> 00:55:37,289 | they're going to use this old high as a level of Do what? protect their position, right? Even if they're selling down here, or here, or maybe they saw |
| 294 | 00:55:37,289 --> 00:55:46,679 | this low here and they want to be a seller, right? They're great. What are they going to use as a stop loss? It could be this high here, or this one. So let's |
| 295 | 00:55:46,709 --> 00:56:04,949 | take a look at what happens. Here's your old high. And I want to use that level. And we're gonna just go above it a few pips not much. Here you go. When price |
| 296 | 00:56:04,949 --> 00:56:10,289 | trades right there. The nature of the spread, does its work right there. |
| 297 | 00:56:11,730 --> 00:56:22,080 | What order would be resting here. Again, assuming that the retail traders are short, there's gonna be a buy. Stop right here a buy stop. So when that price |
| 298 | 00:56:22,080 --> 00:56:31,860 | trades up in stabs into that level here, what's going to happen to that buy stop, it becomes a market order to do what by who's going to sell it to them. |
| 299 | 00:56:33,330 --> 00:56:43,560 | Smart Money. And then when you see price rally up like that, bang, what they do to drive it down to their level, okay. And now this is where they liquidate all |
| 300 | 00:56:43,560 --> 00:56:51,960 | their short positions back here. Now, they could have, you know, liquidated some in here. Okay. And that's what caused the pause in here, because now they're |
| 301 | 00:56:51,960 --> 00:57:03,810 | buying back some other net short position to Dave assumed between the 130 60 and 150 level up here in this block of price action. But as price trades down in |
| 302 | 00:57:03,810 --> 00:57:14,010 | this level here, okay, they're essentially now no longer heavily net short, they may have some shorts still on one. But essentially, they have been unloading |
| 303 | 00:57:14,010 --> 00:57:24,690 | every time price dropped lower. Okay. Because they're larger institutional traders, they have to be exiting during the move, but certainly driving price |
| 304 | 00:57:24,690 --> 00:57:34,290 | down to a specific price point as we noticed on the higher timeframe. Now, when price gets to these levels here, we could look for patterns to trade, because |
| 305 | 00:57:34,290 --> 00:57:47,760 | again, this would be a higher level support level. Okay, and you can see, frys does indeed, rally up. Okay, and for those that had been using these points |
| 306 | 00:57:47,760 --> 00:57:59,670 | here, okay, and trade on a daily timeframe, because they are nine to five desk jockeys, and it can't be intraday traders. So use daily bars to put your stop |
| 307 | 00:57:59,670 --> 00:58:11,820 | loss orders. Okay, those guys are crushed as well. And left feeling bewildered. And like the game is rigged. And you just learned that is in fact it is rigged, |
| 308 | 00:58:12,150 --> 00:58:26,970 | and there but there's a means of understanding how it's rigged. Okay. Let's look at these specific times when price moved, okay, this high here, takes place at |
| 309 | 00:58:26,970 --> 00:59:01,170 | 1445 GMT, or 1500 rather than 1500 GMT. This high here takes place at 1500 GMT. This high here is essentially 2323 30 GMT. And this high here is 11 GMT. This |
| 310 | 00:59:01,170 --> 00:59:32,760 | high here is 12 GMT. And the high here is 630. GMT. That's fairly new york I'm sorry, I'm sorry. Early London open or Frankfurt. This is New York open. This is |
| 311 | 00:59:35,280 --> 00:59:58,710 | the very beginning of New York open. This is Asia. This is London close. And this is London close as well. So you can see there are specific turning points |
| 312 | 00:59:58,710 --> 01:00:10,170 | that are occurring at Session open and closings, okay? And I promised that we're going to go into great detail as to what their specific time pockets are. Okay? |
| 313 | 01:00:10,200 --> 01:00:22,410 | And in my trading, I call them kill zones. It's not because I'm supportive of serial killing or, or the notion of killing people. I adopt the mindset of a |
| 314 | 01:00:22,410 --> 01:00:30,960 | sniper, but I don't I don't have, you know, suicidal or psych |
| 315 | 01:00:33,480 --> 01:00:44,520 | psychological issues where I'm attracted to killing, okay, so don't think don't think that's what this is I just use it to adopt a specific mindset. Okay. And I |
| 316 | 01:00:44,550 --> 01:00:56,520 | view trading as a sharpshooting exercise. Okay, much in terms of a sniper. So it's not that I'm supportive of going out and shooting people. I'm supportive of |
| 317 | 01:00:56,520 --> 01:01:05,790 | the idea of being a marksman, okay, so please don't send me nasty emails or, or leave comments that I invariably forgot to turn off on my YouTube channel, |
| 318 | 01:01:06,180 --> 01:01:16,080 | making comments about how, you know, I shouldn't be supporting the war or anything like that. So please, don't don't run with the idea of the sniper |
| 319 | 01:01:16,080 --> 01:01:25,950 | theme, okay, and think that I'm supporting into killing of human life. But a lot of the themes I use in teaching comes from my way of learning. So either create |
| 320 | 01:01:25,950 --> 01:01:34,980 | a language for myself to understand what it is I was seeing in price action. And it also is valuable as a means of communicating or creating a vocabulary, |
| 321 | 01:01:34,980 --> 01:01:47,220 | because a lot of this stuff is it came through just staring at charts. Now, when I do get to concepts that I learned from other people, I will always give credit |
| 322 | 01:01:47,220 --> 01:01:57,690 | to where credit is due. Okay. I believe that's should be always the case. But you see many times and I've seen my own work, okay, appear in things that you |
| 323 | 01:01:57,690 --> 01:02:07,980 | could buy on the internet. And I just recently bought a new course. And I'm not going to say who it is or what it is in this video. But I was very disappointed |
| 324 | 01:02:07,980 --> 01:02:20,400 | to see something of mine. And it is uniquely mine. And it wasn't credited to me. And I'm very disenchanted by the whole thing, but I might talk about it later |
| 325 | 01:02:20,400 --> 01:02:30,030 | on. But I'm certainly not going to bring it up in this video series. But if you do see a concept in this video series that I personally learned from someone |
| 326 | 01:02:30,030 --> 01:02:46,560 | else, I will certainly do my very best to give them their credit as well. Let's look at the notion of fractals in price action. And we're gonna move over to our |
| 327 | 01:02:46,560 --> 01:02:51,990 | second portion of price action and study |
| 328 | 01:02:57,030 --> 01:03:07,800 | this segment of price. Okay, this is the second portion of price that I was asking you guys to study. And what I have here is I have the price levels on a |
| 329 | 01:03:07,800 --> 01:03:20,430 | 15 minute basis because remember, we talked about how price is universally limited to trading within support resistance levels, but each timeframe has its |
| 330 | 01:03:20,460 --> 01:03:29,250 | own support resistance levels created as price gyrates up and down. What I did here is certainly not every single one of them, but what I'm want to draw out |
| 331 | 01:03:29,520 --> 01:03:43,230 | with your eye is I want you to see there's a specific overall price structure here. Okay, now, this concept is not going to be fully explained and understood |
| 332 | 01:03:43,290 --> 01:03:53,100 | by watching this one video. But if you spend time in the charts yourself, you'll start seeing these things repeat over and over and over again. And it's one of |
| 333 | 01:03:53,100 --> 01:04:03,630 | those things you have to keep looking at it before your eye gets accustomed to seeing it. And then right away your brain will do the magic okay of seeing it |
| 334 | 01:04:03,660 --> 01:04:10,710 | remembering Oh yeah, this is what this is. And then boom, you'll know naturally what you should be doing. And that again, and on top of that trading with your |
| 335 | 01:04:10,710 --> 01:04:23,130 | gut, okay, this is what you do. Buy with your eye, okay, you trading what you see. Price trades off of a level of support. Okay, and we're just going to |
| 336 | 01:04:23,430 --> 01:04:38,880 | assume that the 132 figure was significant enough to provide support and price rallies off here. Okay. Price comes back down trades down into that 132 30 level |
| 337 | 01:04:39,690 --> 01:04:56,640 | essentially, okay and bounces and runs through and creates a short term support level. Okay. Now price has since been trading higher. From that low we discussed |
| 338 | 01:04:56,790 --> 01:05:08,010 | when price came down in our previous Example, on the power timeframe were found at support level. Now as price moved higher, okay, you can see this stair |
| 339 | 01:05:08,010 --> 01:05:18,630 | stepping environment that you can see price doing. And eventually it reaches a level of resistance. Now we're going to show why it's a facade on your part, to |
| 340 | 01:05:18,630 --> 01:05:28,800 | look at these lower timeframes, and expect with any reasonable consistency, to be able to see what's going to transpire next, without having any idea what the |
| 341 | 01:05:28,800 --> 01:05:39,120 | higher timeframes are doing. Now on a short term level, okay, short term basis, rather, with the higher timeframe premise in mind until a high timeframe barrier |
| 342 | 01:05:39,120 --> 01:05:50,130 | is met. And this is going to be in its form of resistance. Okay. And that would be seen up here, which we'll look at in a moment. Until that is met that barrier |
| 343 | 01:05:50,130 --> 01:06:04,830 | or that obstruction to higher prices, one could capture trading opportunities when prices finding support. Okay? So I'm very well known for what I coined as |
| 344 | 01:06:04,830 --> 01:06:16,020 | the optimal trade entry, which is simply nothing more than a Fibonacci retracement back to the 62% or 77 treatment level, or my own level 70.5, which |
| 345 | 01:06:16,020 --> 01:06:32,340 | is between the 62 and 79th century style. They they have a very consistent level of reaction and price when they are hunted. And I'm going to give you some |
| 346 | 01:06:32,340 --> 01:06:46,560 | examples of how just by using this price structure here. Okay, how many times you can see these in these signals setting up. Now, again, we're looking at the |
| 347 | 01:06:46,560 --> 01:06:55,530 | first week of August, okay, the first week of August. And again, we're assuming again, the market is still bullish. So we'll be looking for the low of the week. |
| 348 | 01:06:55,800 --> 01:07:04,290 | Okay, now we reverse the script we learned earlier about the trading day of the week. For down moves, we expect to see the high of The Week formed by Tuesday's |
| 349 | 01:07:04,290 --> 01:07:16,620 | long and open or Monday and the very latest by Wednesdays London open. But 70% of the time you see the high form on Tuesday, or the low form on Tuesday, in |
| 350 | 01:07:16,620 --> 01:07:26,550 | this case, the low the week. Okay, because here's the end of the week, here's here's Friday's close. Here's Monday's open, the market opens on Monday trades |
| 351 | 01:07:26,580 --> 01:07:46,170 | lower, this is the low of the week. Okay. Write this on your notepad when there is a large range bar, okay? Whether it be a daily or four hour or one hour |
| 352 | 01:07:47,489 --> 01:07:58,769 | or 15 minute really doesn't make a difference as to what time frame means. But whenever you have a large bar or a large candle, large candles on any timeframe |
| 353 | 01:07:59,429 --> 01:08:10,199 | do not usually work both sides of the opening of that candle very much. Okay. And what I mean by that? Well, we're going to use this example here. The market |
| 354 | 01:08:10,199 --> 01:08:18,809 | opened on Monday on this particular week, trades up a little bit, but we're not talking about very much here. Okay, let's look at exactly what we're looking at |
| 355 | 01:08:18,809 --> 01:08:36,869 | here. It's moves up 25 pips. It moves down. 42 pips. Okay. So it starts off going up about 20 goes down about 40 and then starts to move higher. But notice |
| 356 | 01:08:36,869 --> 01:08:47,459 | it doesn't work both sides of the opening very much. If we're bullish, we can reasonably expect to see any decline. Be very modest. Okay, so we could be a |
| 357 | 01:08:47,459 --> 01:08:59,279 | buyer on weakness with this with the understanding or level of confidence that if this is a bullish week, and it trades lower, okay, well, Monday or Tuesday, |
| 358 | 01:08:59,699 --> 01:09:09,809 | we could be a buyer that find support. Okay. But now prior to this price drop, I'm going to ask you, what do you see here, now we're looking at the 132 30 |
| 359 | 01:09:09,809 --> 01:09:22,499 | level here, but again, because we moved down to a lower timeframe, what other level stands out? You see this high here, the short term high. Let's note that. |
| 360 | 01:09:27,569 --> 01:09:44,669 | Now I will admit it's not very much in terms of difference between here and here. Okay, this level, let's note it so you can see what it is the 132 26 and |
| 361 | 01:09:44,669 --> 01:09:58,319 | this is the 132 30 level. So it's not much in terms of pips, but if this was an hourly chart or a four hour chart, this could very easily be 5060 different any |
| 362 | 01:09:58,319 --> 01:10:08,999 | number of pips that's greater than Less than 10 here. So again, I'm trying to take your eye and train it on a conceptual basis, and not limited to a specific |
| 363 | 01:10:08,999 --> 01:10:20,579 | timeframe. Okay? The things that are generically inherent or sensitive to timeframe is the hard timeframe, the daily, four hour, one hour. So the trend, |
| 364 | 01:10:20,669 --> 01:10:29,549 | the directional bias, the hearts high level support resistance levels, those things don't move. They're very, very, very powerful, they're static, you have |
| 365 | 01:10:29,549 --> 01:10:41,969 | to correct directly relate them to the higher time frame, again, daily for our one hour, no trade whatsoever, you should never take a trade outside of having a |
| 366 | 01:10:41,969 --> 01:10:57,299 | key support level, or resistance level that is either either from the 60 minute, minimum, four hour or daily chart, okay? If you do this, your trading is going |
| 367 | 01:10:57,299 --> 01:11:07,649 | to move to another level immediately. But it's also going to force patience, which is a very hard characteristic for traders, especially as a new trader, |
| 368 | 01:11:07,649 --> 01:11:16,769 | you're not going to have that level of patience, okay. But by applying the higher time frame support resistance levels, it's going to force you to wait. |
| 369 | 01:11:17,069 --> 01:11:26,969 | And that's a good thing. Because that's it. That's a characteristic of good trading that has a learned characteristic. We just, we don't open a book up say, |
| 370 | 01:11:27,119 --> 01:11:33,569 | Okay, I read that chapter. Now, I'm patient. Now that you know what I'm talking about. I mean, you know, we've you've had your demo accounts, you've over |
| 371 | 01:11:33,569 --> 01:11:41,549 | leveraged it, you know, $100 per PIP just to see what would happen, you know, what's going to happen? Nothing, nothing went in your pocket, you wasted time. |
| 372 | 01:11:41,669 --> 01:11:49,559 | And if it lost money, you didn't pay attention to that one. But the ones that do, you're sitting at work daydreaming as to where you're going to get out of |
| 373 | 01:11:49,559 --> 01:11:56,939 | having to ever have to work anymore. Okay, so you know what you did? You know, you do all the time to stop doing all that mess. So now looking at this price |
| 374 | 01:11:56,939 --> 01:12:13,469 | action here, okay. We have this short term high here. Okay, we have these swing lows in here. Okay. So what what in this block of price, what level in here is |
| 375 | 01:12:13,499 --> 01:12:34,289 | being worked? Any idea? The 132. Big figure, okay. 132 big figure. So what we'll do is, was moved this down. Okay, and what I'll do is I'll take this level. |
| 376 | 01:12:39,570 --> 01:12:54,510 | And I'm just going to put that here. Okay, so we have a price level that's being worked here. And we have a very short term high here as well. But this |
| 377 | 01:12:55,080 --> 01:13:05,820 | retracement here. Okay, you see that? We're going to introduce briefly. I don't want to do too much of this because I can very easily turn this into a four hour |
| 378 | 01:13:05,850 --> 01:13:15,030 | teaching just on fibs and won't even scratch the surface on what's applicable with it. If you pull a fib from that level, okay, this is a support level. Okay, |
| 379 | 01:13:15,030 --> 01:13:28,770 | we have price here, rallying up away from it, making this high here. Okay, you see that? Do you see now let me put this right on the level because I want to be |
| 380 | 01:13:28,770 --> 01:13:43,440 | consistent about what I'm showing you. This is the 70.5 level, this is the 79% level and this is this 62% level. Price comes down to 62 and bounces and then |
| 381 | 01:13:43,440 --> 01:13:59,730 | what does it do? It rallies off trades up into old lows. Old high resistance into Tuesday. Okay, Tuesday trades down. It makes a low. The low Here comes at |
| 382 | 01:13:59,730 --> 01:14:13,620 | 630 GMT. Think in time day. That's middle of Frankfurt. the very early stages of London open okay. Just go back here for a second the loan this day here forms at |
| 383 | 01:14:14,010 --> 01:14:31,410 | 1345 GMT. The high that day on Monday forms at 745 which is London open. So now we have a nother minor move here. And retracement. Okay. If you pull a fib from |
| 384 | 01:14:31,410 --> 01:14:46,740 | that price swing from here to here. And let's take this one off. So you can see price comes right down to that 62% retracement level. Now we're hunting or |
| 385 | 01:14:46,740 --> 01:15:04,740 | stocking buying opportunities. Okay. But the 62% What else could we use? Okay, well, let's see what else happens around that. 62% we have the 132 47 so isn't |
| 386 | 01:15:04,740 --> 01:15:13,980 | that really the 132 50 level? It's a big, big round number right? So you can see price comes down to that mid figure level and then bounces. So there's a |
| 387 | 01:15:13,980 --> 01:15:29,010 | confluence of support like that. Okay, now price rallies up, comes down, bounces here trades out finds a high and retraces To do what? Well this old high here |
| 388 | 01:15:29,310 --> 01:15:41,190 | once it's broken through is becomes an inversion level again it's resistance here once broken. Okay it's rose inverted now becomes a sport rallies off okay, |
| 389 | 01:15:41,190 --> 01:15:51,030 | and it comes back down on the very next day so you don't have to rush if you miss this move Fine. Then you start seeing on Wednesday price retraces Okay, and |
| 390 | 01:15:51,060 --> 01:16:04,950 | you would do what expected to find support were here. But now watch what happens. You take your fib and the previous day's low. For what up to the high. |
| 391 | 01:16:05,580 --> 01:16:16,770 | This is the highest point from this low to this high as it retraces. Do you see what it's done here? Here's the 62% retracement the 79 second placement level, |
| 392 | 01:16:17,100 --> 01:16:28,920 | we have a confluence of support and resistance on that 70.5 level or sweet spot. Okay. This is like that target crosshair on a sniper scope. This is exactly what |
| 393 | 01:16:28,920 --> 01:16:43,650 | you're looking for. The very low of this candle, okay, comes at zactly at nine GMT, that is the London open kill zone. Price rallies up takes off, okay, breaks |
| 394 | 01:16:43,650 --> 01:16:54,960 | through this old high. Okay, see that old high here breaks through that sticker fit that we had drawn here off. Okay, price, rallies through it and it comes |
| 395 | 01:16:54,960 --> 01:17:08,280 | back and does what finds an inversion level this resistance broken, the roll is inverted, boom, it becomes what now support. Okay. Now, I'm going to refrain |
| 396 | 01:17:08,280 --> 01:17:11,460 | from breaking down to a five minute chart just to show you the |
| 397 | 01:17:13,020 --> 01:17:24,990 | optimal trade entry here. But you see this swing low here. This is London close. This little swing low here, this occurs at London close, write this down in a |
| 398 | 01:17:24,990 --> 01:17:37,860 | pen, every session high and low. In other words, the highest high and the lowest low it makes during each session. Okay? That means the London session, the New |
| 399 | 01:17:37,860 --> 01:17:48,270 | York session, the asian session, okay, only look at those three major trading sessions. And you want to be looking for the highest high and the lowest low. |
| 400 | 01:17:48,270 --> 01:17:59,370 | And it's easiest to do that research on a five minute basis. Okay. And you want to be getting used to seeing what those ranges are for these individual |
| 401 | 01:17:59,370 --> 01:18:10,560 | sessions. Now, when you use that information, you'll be able to pull your fibs from these particular price points. And you'll see the signals that evade many |
| 402 | 01:18:10,560 --> 01:18:16,680 | people. And a lot of times people watch my video and say, Well, it looks like hindsight to me, you'll see that this is the same stuff applied over and over |
| 403 | 01:18:16,680 --> 01:18:28,680 | and over again. Okay. So we have old, sorry, a low here, which is old highs here on Tuesday. So these are all lower level support levels, they're now dynamic. So |
| 404 | 01:18:28,920 --> 01:18:40,770 | this level is good, but you can fine tune also. Okay. But more importantly, as price trades back down to this level here, I'm going to show you this is the |
| 405 | 01:18:40,770 --> 01:18:50,490 | high and the low. And here's the centralized tracing level, lying right on top of this support level. So we have real support resistance with overlapping |
| 406 | 01:18:50,850 --> 01:19:01,470 | Fibonacci set tracing level with a directional bias and mine looking for higher prices. Okay, so you could be a buyer on this candle here. And this candle comes |
| 407 | 01:19:01,470 --> 01:19:15,480 | in at 245 GMT. So you guys that work all day, you could have been participant on this, maybe this is a Asia session, trade price moves up, blows through a short |
| 408 | 01:19:15,480 --> 01:19:28,500 | term high that he creates on this day here and meets a otherwise unknown resistance level. Okay, do you see the facade here, if you're just looking at |
| 409 | 01:19:28,500 --> 01:19:38,880 | these types of charts in a 15 minute basis, if you're looking at sub 60 minutes, anything less than 60 minutes without having a reference point, on the higher |
| 410 | 01:19:38,880 --> 01:19:47,400 | time frame, you really are throwing darts in the dark, you have no idea what you're aiming for. Okay, you may think you know what you're doing because price |
| 411 | 01:19:47,400 --> 01:19:55,050 | is trading up and maybe you're drawing trend lines and all that business. Look, if you don't have the higher time frame premise in mind, you are gambling. |
| 412 | 01:19:55,740 --> 01:20:05,100 | There's no other way of saying it. You're just simply gambling. So now We're gonna look at a moment at what this catalyst was okay, and it's gonna be very |
| 413 | 01:20:05,100 --> 01:20:14,820 | clear to you won't be like, Oh, this is no hindsight picking it, you're gonna see it so clearly obvious why it turned here. But eventually price does break |
| 414 | 01:20:14,820 --> 01:20:26,250 | down and trades down, breaking all of the higher highs, higher lows, higher lows, high high, it's all broken here, this low is broken here. So now we have a |
| 415 | 01:20:26,250 --> 01:20:35,700 | break in market structure. So we're going to learn more about in later modules. But as price breaks down, okay, this support level, as we see that my little |
| 416 | 01:20:35,700 --> 01:20:46,410 | bounce here, price comes down, breaks through it, and trades right back to it now. Okay, so now if you pull a fib from this high to this low, you can start |
| 417 | 01:20:46,410 --> 01:20:53,910 | seeing overlapping and you can do this on your own chart. That's as the us getting very long, you can see there's this selling opportunity in the candle |
| 418 | 01:20:53,910 --> 01:21:07,080 | Here comes in at six GMT is Frankfurt opening, the very beginning of Frankfurt, various trades down, find some support, okay? If you just look over here, where |
| 419 | 01:21:07,080 --> 01:21:18,720 | price starts to take off in here, this little pause or consolidation, it bounces right at that same point, comes up and starts making a larger range, okay? And |
| 420 | 01:21:20,400 --> 01:21:33,390 | creates a tap to this old swing low is resistance, and then trades lower and breaks through this swing low, trade softer back right back down to old lows, |
| 421 | 01:21:33,510 --> 01:21:44,940 | that I did not have looked on the chart as a horizontal line. It bounces trades up to a known level of resistance, okay, and comes back down and starts |
| 422 | 01:21:44,940 --> 01:21:53,130 | consolidating. But it's consolidating around that 130 to 50 level. So let's calibrate our level here. |
| 423 | 01:22:00,120 --> 01:22:08,610 | Okay, we're gonna leave that there. And I'm going to take this one off, too. So it won't be confusing to us when we go out to a higher timeframe chart, because |
| 424 | 01:22:08,610 --> 01:22:17,970 | I want to illustrate what it is. That's transpiring here. And now up here. If you look over here on the left, I'm sorry, on the right hand side, this is |
| 425 | 01:22:17,970 --> 01:22:33,420 | essentially the 134 figure. So what we're going to do is there's going to highlight the 134. Okay, and it was 133 98 was the high that day, but we're |
| 426 | 01:22:33,420 --> 01:22:44,580 | gonna see there's an actual high on the higher timeframe that this would have been utilized as reasonable expectations. Expect price to be either pausing at |
| 427 | 01:22:44,580 --> 01:22:52,920 | that level, or maybe a little bit above it, skipping or below as we have here. Now we're going to drop out to a four hour chart. |
| 428 | 01:22:58,410 --> 01:23:11,490 | Okay, and here is that level right there. Okay. You see these old highs? It's essentially worked. That 134 figure, how about this old high. See that? Let me |
| 429 | 01:23:11,490 --> 01:23:24,780 | take these vertical lines off. Sorry about got to get this office drive, man, I read through it. And see that price slipped aggressively layer right there. And |
| 430 | 01:23:24,810 --> 01:23:36,750 | as price ran up to that old high in here, it's reasonable to expect that at least this would be a pause or a reversal. And you see that if you go back |
| 431 | 01:23:36,750 --> 01:23:57,330 | farther look at these highs. See that? Now if we go out to a daily chart, here's those highs we just looked at. Look at this high. Look at the lows here to the |
| 432 | 01:23:57,330 --> 01:24:12,480 | highs here. You don't think that level sensitive. Okay, you certainly saw that here. Okay. So, again, let's go back down to the 15 minute chart. Price trades |
| 433 | 01:24:12,480 --> 01:24:26,880 | down from there, okay, until it does, what it finds support. Okay. This level in here, where it's gonna borrow as far as on a line, and we're gonna use the very |
| 434 | 01:24:26,880 --> 01:24:36,540 | extreme, okay, now, this is illustrating the, again, the facade of using lower timeframes to justify the trade without having higher timeframe premise. Okay. |
| 435 | 01:24:37,560 --> 01:24:50,400 | We have the 132 10 level. This essentially what that is, and that's a level that I have talked about in weeks. Since this time of this recording. We got to a |
| 436 | 01:24:50,400 --> 01:25:07,200 | four hour chart. Here's that 132 10 level. Okay. Price comes down, hits it right there. rallies off. Look at the time it spends at support resistance at that |
| 437 | 01:25:07,200 --> 01:25:09,510 | level, see that? |
| 438 | 01:25:16,830 --> 01:25:42,570 | Okay. When price trades down like this and rallies off, back down to a 15 minute timeframe. It was in a consolidation. So I was asking you when we were doing our |
| 439 | 01:25:42,570 --> 01:25:55,620 | first episode what you saw here, okay, now this is the market maker business model. Okay. And we'll talk more about this as we go along. But we generally see |
| 440 | 01:25:55,620 --> 01:26:09,540 | a consolidation, a rally, or retracement then another leg up and a pause and a leg up eventual reversal with a failure swing low which is a high, it fails go |
| 441 | 01:26:09,540 --> 01:26:21,870 | higher, and then it breaks down, then you start seeing the market move lower with opportunities to sell. Okay. There are really two legs up and then two legs |
| 442 | 01:26:21,870 --> 01:26:36,810 | down. And there is an Zenith point here. There's an origin point here and a conclusion point on the right side. Okay, they build a block of orders. Okay, |
| 443 | 01:26:36,840 --> 01:26:50,400 | they rally the price up, they is the dealers. Okay, the market makers. And then they have another leg up. If you look at price very generically, if you say |
| 444 | 01:26:50,400 --> 01:26:53,310 | okay, here's the low and it rallies up and makes this price swing. |
| 445 | 01:27:00,180 --> 01:27:10,710 | Essentially using this low here, this is the second leg here. Okay, now we're not looking for x per perfect symmetry, but the overall price structure will |
| 446 | 01:27:10,710 --> 01:27:29,760 | always be very similar to what you see here. The price move lower. Okay, we have a high, down to a low. Okay, you can see the second leg here. Okay, so we have |
| 447 | 01:27:30,360 --> 01:27:40,620 | first move and then consolidation and then move lower. And so that's the second like, so there's two phases up, two phases down. But there's a reactionary high, |
| 448 | 01:27:40,830 --> 01:27:53,550 | that's formed here. Okay. So they rally price up. And then they sell off. So the accumulation they accumulate, Long's here, they rally price up as prices rally |
| 449 | 01:27:53,550 --> 01:28:02,640 | and they distribute. And then they start selling on the other side. Usually what happens is folks over here, are expecting it to continue. And they're buying |
| 450 | 01:28:02,640 --> 01:28:10,740 | over here. Because why they're looking at loads of here draw and trend lines. And I think, okay, that's greater the trend line and start buying and breaks. |
| 451 | 01:28:11,760 --> 01:28:21,540 | And then they don't know what to do so much in the same way does it on the upside, same thing will happen here, folks start seeing these stairsteps going |
| 452 | 01:28:21,540 --> 01:28:33,030 | lower, lower, lower, they'll draw their trend line? Again, this is why I'm not a fan of trend lines. But you can see how this is a very textbook trend line. So |
| 453 | 01:28:33,030 --> 01:28:49,680 | when price gets here, okay, let's be a seller. Really. Why? Because the 15 minute chart says so. And if it's a trend line, watch what happens. Wow, we've |
| 454 | 01:28:49,680 --> 01:29:03,570 | made money. Boom, we got crushed. Watch what's happened to k, we move into another market maker business model. We go on until consolidation, a fake rally. |
| 455 | 01:29:04,350 --> 01:29:11,580 | They take the stops out on those that are right on the market. So they could have been buyers down in here. Okay, there's gonna be retail traders that are |
| 456 | 01:29:11,580 --> 01:29:20,370 | being buyers down here and they would have been right. Bang, you take them out, it activates their cell stop, their cell stop becomes a sell order at the |
| 457 | 01:29:20,370 --> 01:29:32,490 | market, who's going to buy it from smart money. And you see this extrapolated, huge move rally up. Okay. Now think like a river here. We have a consolidation, |
| 458 | 01:29:32,520 --> 01:29:42,840 | rally, and then a consolidation, a rally, a consolidation, rally and a reversal of sorts and then a breakdown. Okay, let's look at what we're looking at here. |
| 459 | 01:29:44,250 --> 01:30:03,330 | We have a consolidation, a rally, a consolidation, a rally. A failure swing. The market breaks down and creates a false rally and move lower. Lower rally move up |
| 460 | 01:30:03,330 --> 01:30:16,890 | into old resistance. Okay. And this is where we're at right now. So you can see there's a general repeating theme here, okay? They're not always going to be |
| 461 | 01:30:16,890 --> 01:30:27,240 | identical, but they're going to be very close in terms of their structure. Okay? And this is what I refer to as market structure, you need to see what price is |
| 462 | 01:30:27,240 --> 01:30:38,460 | trying to do. Okay? And key off a support resistance, use time of day, use day of the week. Okay, and let's add that real quick here, you can see that the low |
| 463 | 01:30:38,460 --> 01:30:51,660 | was formed on the initial leg up, but you're now in a second stage. Okay. This is where we apply more of a list, an advanced approach to utilizing but you're |
| 464 | 01:30:51,660 --> 01:31:03,420 | also implying time now the study of time is important. Okay. So you have this price rally here for the previous week, then consolidation, it rallies up. So |
| 465 | 01:31:03,420 --> 01:31:13,350 | this is when you get these weeks that? Yeah, you do have a low form on a Monday or Tuesday, rallies off, it makes a very good, potentially profitable trade. But |
| 466 | 01:31:13,350 --> 01:31:22,620 | then you have the reversal, failure swing, and it trades lower and takes out that weekly low. Why did it do that? Take the vertical lines off and take the |
| 467 | 01:31:22,620 --> 01:31:30,750 | barriers or blinders that you have on thinking okay, ICT said the week is bullish, that means it's going to be the low of the week on Monday or Tuesday or |
| 468 | 01:31:30,750 --> 01:31:40,140 | certainly ladies by Wednesday, London open so therefore, buy and hold? Well, there's a little bit more to it than that. And that gets back to where we at in |
| 469 | 01:31:40,140 --> 01:31:52,740 | terms of the overall market structure. Okay. So now one other side of the business model. So now Are we going to continue move lower? very well could. |
| 470 | 01:31:53,040 --> 01:31:56,970 | Why? Because we went up to that 134 and failed. Okay. |
| 471 | 01:31:58,680 --> 01:32:06,600 | There's a lot of fun, a lot of other things that we could build on. And again, I'm not trying to give you a trade. But there's certainly a lot to suggest that |
| 472 | 01:32:06,630 --> 01:32:15,660 | this could potentially become a nice starting point. If you look at the high here down to this low. It's a very significant retracement point. And we'll just |
| 473 | 01:32:15,660 --> 01:32:28,260 | leave that for another time. But if price continues to move on higher, then we can assume that this is a very solid swing low this formed. And we could see, |
| 474 | 01:32:28,380 --> 01:32:38,760 | you know, this this high chance but we don't know for certain ways look for confluences of support resistance with a bias in mind and then trade on that. |
| 475 | 01:32:39,180 --> 01:32:47,970 | And overall consistently. Applying that mindset. You'll see that there's as a means of finding consistency in your trading. |